February 4, 2009 by korvus
Kinross Gold – KGC - January 22, 2009
The following comments are made in the most important context of a full fledged long term bear market trend.
The evaluation and analysis presented here is that of Pierre Brodeur and there is no relationship between these views and the way Cara Trading Advisors (Bahamas) conducts its research and trading activities.
Cara 100 Jan 6, 2009
I made a switch in the Cara 100 precious metals because of inspiration received from this community. Barrick Gold (ABX) went out and Kinross Gold (KGC) went in. I’ll continue to trade ABX (due to liquidity), and I like their projects, but I will not support their hedging or their practice of having big-name politicians on their board of directors and so-called advisory board.
After reading kaimu’s extensive paper, which I hope he publishes here (if he already didn’t), mostly stuff I knew; I thought, why not support this community better by removing Barrick. Beyond Goldcorp, my next pick among the seniors, for some time now, has been Kinross. Given that our in-depth study on Silver Wheaton will be out soon, I thought it timely to make the change. There will be many mining people read my SLW report, and I wanted them to see I preferred KGC and GG over ABX among the seniors.
What sealed the deal was a comment made this week in an interview with Pinetree’s Sheldon Inwentash in Mineweb, which btw is a fine publication for those who have more than one or two percent of your portfolio in gold and precious metal stocks.
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TORONTO, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Kinross Gold Corp (K.TO) (KGC.N) plans to raise $360.5 million in a share offering to bolster its cash position following recent acquisitions, the company said on Wednesday.
We rate Kinross Gold as a 6 out of a maximum of 10.
Web site: http://www.kinross.com/
Value
Cara RSI (7) monthly signal: Sell March 2008
Cara RSI (7) weekly signal: Buy October 2008
Cara RSI (7) daily signal: Micro Sell January 2009
Trend
MACD (12, 26, 9) monthly signal: Sell July 2008
MACD (12, 26, 9) weekly signal: Buy November 2008
MACD (12, 26, 9) daily signal: Sell January 2009
Volume
Monthly Buyers have control
Weekly Buyers have control
Daily Buyers have control
The Cara RSI (7) daily signal suggest that it is overbought over the short term. The monthly RSI (7) never reached its long term accumulation zone during this bear market even after a downtrend from a high of $27.28 to a low of $6.85
The MACD daily sell signal came early in the current year after the stock had rallied from a minus three (3) standard deviation oversold situation back to the estimated long term Bollinger band (350) value of $18.13. That’s when management decided to issue more common stock…!
Kinross Gold– Point and Figure – Traditional Revision 3
Please “click” on the image for a larger view
-1- The long term trend is bullish as it is supported by the bullish support line currently at $15.50. The last signal was a spread quadruple top ($19) breakout at $19.5 which is still in effect after the recent reversal into a column of “O”, a short term set back.
-2- The intermediary trend is neutral with higher highs ($18.50 and $19.50) and lower lows ($17 and $15.50), a broadening formation. Support is at $15-15.50 (two previous lows combined with the long term bullish line) while resistance is at $19.50. Additional support is the rising50 days moving average (not shown here) at $15.50.
-3- The short term trend is bearish given that we are in a new column of “O”.
We see the current down swing as an opportunity to accumulate the stock. We are fast approaching our channel projection, of $16.50 after the stock had invalidated the last sell signal at $16.50 by breaking out above $17.50.
Kinross Gold – Point and Figure – Relative Strength to Market
Please “click” on the image for a larger view
This stock is outperforming the benchmark (S&P Global 1200 index) being supported by a bullish support line (not shown here), in a column of “O” (highlighted in yellow) and a recent double top breakout (highlighted in green) at 38.23 units.
Kinross Gold– Hourly View
Please “click” on the image for a larger view
This chart is one of many ways of looking at this security from a short term trader’s perspective. Here we look at the momentum of price as it flashed a very short term buy. The stock has been in a range bound pattern since December 15, 2008 with support at $15.50 and resistance in the $19 - $19.50 area. It is also sandwiched between the 20 and 50 days moving averages. There are different tactics available to a trader who wants to buy this stock. These are beyond the scope of this material however.
Pierre Brodeur
| Attachment | Size |
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| KGC_Hourly.PNG | 45.71 KB |
| KGC_PF.PNG | 42.92 KB |
| KGC_PFRS_IOO1.PNG | 28.45 KB |
