Bill Cara’s Blog for Aug 13, 2010 [See post-close report]

Concerns intensified about the health of peripheral eurozone countries on Thursday following weaker than expected growth from Greece and a near-doubling in interest rates paid by Ireland compared with three weeks ago.

German benchmark market interest rates fell to record lows as investors fled to safe haven assets, in a week that has seen the spreads between Bunds and Greek, Portuguese, Irish, Italian and Spanish debt rise sharply.

http://bit.ly/dzPJiS

“Investors are putting money in the corporate bond market because it is considered a safe place notwithstanding the fact that the macroeconomic picture is not very strong,” said David Trahan, head of the US investment grade syndicate at Citigroup, which was a bookrunner on the deal.

J&J, which carries a rare triple A rating, was selling 10-year bonds with an expected final coupon of 2.95 per cent and 30-year bonds with an expected final coupon of 4.5 per cent, the lowest ever paid on both types of debt, according to Thomson Reuters.

http://bit.ly/coXt6e

Re: Yen — I think there is some seasonal repatriation going on there. There was also a China economist saying JGBs are now a safer bet than U.S. Treasuries.

http://bit.ly/aXV7TE

"The Cholesterol Myth That Could Be Harming Your Body"

[Link] http://tinyurl.com/Good-Nor-Bad

This is a very interesting article written for the Huffington Post by one of their contributing doctors. The first section just reviews probably everything you were taught about cholesterol over the years. So if you want to save time just scroll down to ----> Cholesterol is Neither "Good" Nor "Bad". I found this article to be an eye opener.

"Sally Fallon, the president of the Weston A. Price Foundation, and Mary Enig, Ph.D, an expert in lipid biochemistry, have gone so far as to call high cholesterol "an invented disease, a 'problem' that emerged when health professionals learned how to measure cholesterol levels in the blood."

And this explanation is spot on.

If you have increased levels of cholesterol, it is at least in part because of increased inflammation in your body. The cholesterol is there to do a job: help your body to heal and repair."

At least read this section near the end.---> How to Lower Inflammation, and Thereby Your Risk of Heart Disease, Naturally

"Heard Rosenberg has sushi for breakfast nowadays."

Breakfast is too early for a guest at my house ;-)

Gilmo Report
http://bit.ly/cLgp58

I would say more of a macro global view free e-newsletter, they use to promote their paid level subscriptions.

There is a link to download as a pdf file in lower left corner.

Full disclosure: I am not a paid subscriber and I do not care to pay for their insights. But they do send me these 10 pagers email newsletters for free as snippets of their larger reports. so i wanted to share.

http://fidweek.econoday.com/

you can post them yourself G if no one else has.

CPI less food and energy is .01% - flat.

MM retail sales less autos .02% - as good as flat. .04 with autos thrown in. I guess Apple ain't pulling its weight with its IPAD IPOD sales :)

KSS - estimates reduced at Citigroup through 2012. Company's posted a lower gross margin and offered conservative guidance. Buy rating and $68 price target.

MSFT - estimates, target lowered at Jefferies. Shares of MSFT now seen reaching $33. Estimates also cut, given lower expected PC sales. Buy rating.

Looks like the positive sentiment in August could make the short one day bounce after 3 sell off days. So questions to my traders friends here, are you gonna take advantage of it or stay on the side in cash or staying in your short trades, what is the plan? care to share? :) Thanks.

FD: I went long for this one day only at 10:01 AM :)

No big shakes from any of the four releases today: CPI, Retail Sales, Sentiment or Inventories. The only other note is Hoenig speaking at 11:30. The market is on it's own today. Easier to go the "orderly sell-off" route.

Johnny, as you know the decay causes either long or inverse 3x's to go to zero given sufficient number of trading days (the greater the leverage the quicker it happens). Even single inverse ETF's decay just at a slower rate. Atttached is a perf chart for EEM, EDC and EDZ, over the last 200 days EEM is relatively unchanged and both EDC and EDZ are losers. The math via google searches explains what happens but the chart was more informative to me. http://tiny.cc/odv4f

I've been looking at how bonds performed during the meltdown of the Japanese market. If the goal is 2 or 3 times the buy point, at what point do bonds become extended, or is it only a matter of timing the fed?

MtnGntx,
That was off Topic but extremely good information to know. Very much appreciated!

Hoenig: Current Fed policy 'dangerous gamble'Related stories
Stock futures flatten after U.S. data (8:57a)
Fed takes small easing step on weaker outlook (Aug. 10)
The world's best stock market (Aug. 12)
U.S. consumer prices climb 0.3% (11:18a)
Story
Comments Screener (8) Alert Email Print ShareBy Greg Robb WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- In perhaps one of the sharpest critiques of Federal Reserve policy ever from a sitting policy member, Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, said zero interest rates were "a dangerous gamble" in a period of moderate growth. In a speech in Lincoln, Nebraska, Hoenig warned that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his allies were trying to use monetary policy as a "cure-all" for "every problem faced by the United States today." Keeping rates too low for too long will only lead to a repeat of the cycle of severe recession and unemployment in a few short years, he warned. Hoenig has dissented at every Fed policy meeting this year. He wants the Fed to commit to a slow and gradual increase in the target Federal funds rate. Hoenig argued that the economic news was not as bad as reported in the media and described by Wall Street experts. The markets want zero rates to continue because they are earning guaranteed returns on free money, he said. Hoenig dismissed fears of deflation.

Dave, must be some combination of fear, uncertainty with a hint of deflation thrown in for good measure.

TLT in a consolidation zone as well on double daily chart. Pullback to under 100 could be good pullback entry. FWIW

After about a month of 100% cash, I did a toe dip. I spend too much time in analysis paralysis. Yesterday morning, after the S&P500 touched 1080 twice without penetrating and then started to climb, I bought some SPY. I still think the market will hit 1130 - 1140 range again before a drop. Set a stop based on the magic 1066 number for S&P500. In SPY numbers I figure that to be about 2 points at risk vs. a potential 4 point reward.

I work a day job - can't day trade, so in this volatile market my typical time frame is still 2 days - 2 weeks. So I'm thinking a rise from Options Expiry?

I'd like to hear any comments from more experienced traders here. Half of me wants to bail before the weekend.

My comments follow yours:

"Almost everyone I know among my retired friends is taking the statin lipitor. We all rely on our MD doctors' expertise."

Understood... I see them all over the place including with my parents.

"It is possible that statins are useless at best and possibly harmful. But I can assure you that everyone would be fearful of discontinuing the use of statins because they have been prescribed by people we trust."

Unserstood.... Absolutely understood, even the experts prescribing them depend on this circuitous logic to justify their actions.

"None of us know anyone who has gotten ill or died due to the effects of a statin. Of course we do not know the experience of the universe of statin consumers."

I would suggest you dont know, because you havent been told. And you havent been told because it is not in the system's interests for you to be told. The very exstensive list of documented side effects is quite effectively repressed. Latest polls indicate that the great majority of physicians who prescribe statins can't even accurately enumerate even the most common side effects.... rhabdomyolysis and memory loss. The lesser form of Rhabdomyolysis manifests as muscle cramps, but can lead to liver and kidney problems very quickly.

Perhaps the most insidious and one of the most commonly under-reported side effects is memory loss. The brain is vastly comprised of cholesterols... almost entirely so. It is an organ of fat. Depriving this organ of its elemental component, cholesterol, has been repeatedly shown to lead to brain atrophy and resultant cognitive defects. But when an older person goes to their physician complaining of memory problems, they are inevitably and erroneously told that this is the result of the normal aging process. The connection between increased cognitive problems and statin use is rarely accurately made and that is why it is vastly under reported. Yet we have a veritable epidemic increase in all sorts of cognitively related problems in our elderly... an epidemic that is not reflected in populations that are not on statins. There are very complex and inter-related issues involved here and it does indeed take prodigious investigation to tease out the interactions. Your doctor does not think along these lines. They go to the computer and are told what to do without thinking about such things.

Even mainstream research indicate significant flaws in the statin facade. But this information is quite effectively spun into irrelevance by pharm interests. For instance, the latest research (month ago or so) reported in the British Medical Journal indicates that for every 100 people treated with statins, 2 are successfully prevented from suffering a negative cardiovascular outcome that would have otherwise occurred. That is good. But buried deeply in the statistics, dogged researchers discover that we also cause 4 cases of malignant diabetes due to kidney and liver effects... and an assortment of other documented side effects.... so that at least 3 or 4 times as many people helped are injuriously impacted. This is just one of a very prodigious line of publications that paint the same picture of statins. If you are very lucky, they wont have any impact on your health one way or the other, but even here, long data is lacking... and they have just come out with a chewable form of statin for overweight children while vigourously lobbying to introduce statins into all municipal water supplies.

What is not discussed in all of this is the inflammatory process and cholesterol's role in this process. Why would this not be discussed/ considered? Because the prevention of chronic vascular inflammation is a matter of diet and nutrition, and this does not represent a viable revenue source to either physicians or the pharm interests they directly serve. In medical school, we get years upon years of pharmaceutical exposure and testing... we get less than one week in the second year of school on nutrition. Where do you think doctor's minds are focused? Even the doctors that do know these things argue that it is easier in their practice to give a pill that they perceive addresses the underlying problem... a statin.. than it is to change their patient's eating and exercising behaviors. And for a physician that, on average, sees 25 patients in an 8 hour day, anything that reduces their workload is vastly preferred to the time considerations of patient education.

"Moreover we are enjoying longevity to the extent that we are straining Social Security and pension systems. We must be doing something helpful because we are living longer than our parents did."

There are vast amounts of information covering this issue, with much cogent information implying that things such as cleaner western living standards, easier living circumstances, and better nutrition availability and use have added far more to our longevity as a population than has western medicine. In fact, western medicine paradoxically fights against this progress in far to many instances. This past week in JAMA an article is presented that claims that physician arrogance alone accounts for over 100k needless deaths a year. This doesn't include all the other ways that your physician can kill you.

The analogy that I use is that scientific progress is circular like the path of a screw blade.... generally upward but definitely not in a linear pattern. And it is the flaws in human nature and inadequacies in our logical thinking skills that directly diminish the pitch of this screw blade away from linear.

"Even if there are conflicting scientific studies on this issue most of us are less qualified that our MD doctors to evaluate such studies, especially since every drug produces adverse side effects in a portion of the population."

What I am telling you is that the vast majority of physicians are not good scientists. THey are not even poor scientists. They are not trained to be scientists at all. The educational systems for scientists and physicians are diametrically opposed. I've had both, so I should know. THe physician is trained by rote memorization and regurgitation. He is rewarded for quick and efficient reactive behaviors based on preset algorhythms of treatment. There is only one correct answer in the answer set. The scientist is evaluated on his ability to think outside the box and to logically assess data based on a plethora of possibilities. There are an infinite number of possible answers to his question set limited only by his ability to creatively apply method and effectively argue hypothesis. However, the system pounds it into the physician's heads that they are good scientists and that they in all ways superior to their PhD brethren. I am not kidding, true animosity and conflict between the two here. Society holds physicians to be superior in this arrangement, so they tend to prevail in disagreements, both monetarily and in policy.

Physicians are not generally trained to evaluate any scientific study. That doesnt mean there are not physicians who are good scientists. Most physicians are living under false pretense that they are trained and acting accordingly.. garbage in, garbage out. It is extremely dangerous for us to allow them to live under these delusions... and yet the system perpetuates this arrangement for both monetary and control reasons.

"In the final analysis we are the guinnea pigs. If statins prove at some point in the future to cause unduly harmful effects we will stop taking them and those who come after us will have the benefit of our experience. Do we have an alternative?"

We can pay better attention to what our science is saying. To do this we have to diminish the influence of special interests and big business in manipulation of science and its application. The corporate interests running the show behind the scenes is self serving. They will not publish their own contradictory data. They actively target researchers for career destruction that produce anything that disagrees' with what is in their agendas.

It is not easy to accept the magnitude of the problem. I have a PhD in Biophysics and Genetics specifically related to Cardiology. I have endured elements of the medical indoctrination process and remain in cardiology research. My father is on statins. He has muscle cramps and memory deficits directly related to their use and is not receiving any statistically significant benefit for enduring these side effects. And yet when I tell him to get %^&* off them, he does not listen to me. I just have to let it go at some level.... But it is not easy.

Sorry for the book.

"What is truth? Pilate asked"

MtnGntx... thank you very much for your thoughts in regard to my earlier post this morning. I was really taken back about the so called misinformation on cholesterol last night. But after reading your posts I am starting to think maybe I have been deceived all these years about the harmful effects of cholesterol and the real villain the whole time is inflammation.

Time to dust off the deep fryer. Fried chicken anyone?

http://www.gata.org/node/8913

GATA's Chris Powell highlights:

The Hinde Capital report, "Precious Metal ETFs Alchemy: GLD -- the New CDO [Collateralized Debt Obligation] in Disguise?," asserts of the gold and silver ETFs:

"-- ETFs should not be owned by serious professional investors.

"-- ETFs offer none of the benefits of physical bullion ownership.

"-- ETFs are no cheaper than owning physical allocated bullion stored and insured in secure vaults.

"-- ETFs are not as secure as owning physical allocated bullion either via a bullion fund or an allocated bullion account.

"-- ETFs provide no returns above the bullion price, only the likelihood of tracking at a discount or potentially failing to track the bullion price at all.

"-- ETFs do not provide 24-hour liquidity, unlike the bullion market itself.

"-- It is evident that gold with multiple owners has entered into unallocated and more importantly allocated accounts. We see it as highly likely that encumbered or leased gold could thus be in ETF products."

The Hinde Capital report also notes the likely conflict of interest of the precious metal ETF custodians, HSBC and JPMorganChase, which are also the big shorts in the gold and silver market.

Top chart is DBO [+ div], bottom is SCO [- div]. Not the divergences on both chart .

Everyone have a good weekend.

That was a good report Dr. S., I found the audio from a link posted here. It made me have a whole different opinion about trading these ETFs. Some time ago, we've discussed the dangers inherent in trading them. This time I think it sunk in for me.

I love doing the SPY options, especially since they now have ones expiring every friday, I just sold next fri 105 puts paired with a like amount of the sept 103 puts for a net debit in the 1.10s...... leaning to the downside over the next several weeks because of the hindenburg effect, seasonality, etc, etc and hopefully playing the time value errosion of the nearest ones will help pay for the trades.....also as an aside to Baz22 I am selling $3 puts on the bio GTXI.......everyone have a great weekend....and no more lipitor pills for moi.......

Grym,
Be sure to read David Rosenberg letter today. He goes into depth on this somewhat. I don't have a link with me but I will get you one later if you don't have access to his letter.

Thanks,

good stuff all around on this topic. been a price foundation fan for some time. if interested in Fallons work, Nourishing Traditions is a good book on practical recipes, etc and quite large.

likewise, look into the wonderful FDA shutting down kombucha nationwide b/c of concerns about like 1% alcohol levels due to, not even kidding, lindsey lohan getting 'drunk' off it. cannot make this stuff up...

thx to all

Grym, the link was given to me by an options person. I haven't seen it yet as it is lengthy. From what he says it might offer some possibilities. http://tiny.cc/m9lz6

Done. Thank You!

George,

Thanks for the link. It wouldn't let me in due to needing a newer version of Quicktime. I'll check to see if I can upgrade without upgrading my OS. I think I'm about as high as I can go without buying my 13th Mac, but maybe I can get it on my wife's.

I think someone indicated an interest in viewing the David Rosenberg interview. Here is the link.

http://tinyurl.com/2f7glzb

Hi All - A recent quote from a So. African mining executive: “The legislation is flawed - we knew that from the start. We wanted a system that was transparent and laid down exact processes and outcomes. Instead, we got one where the civil servants have wide powers of discretion and the government was overambitious in its belief that it could administer the system effectively. It’s become very clear this system is subject to interference". Sounds like the Interior department and some state agencies under Salazar and the regime. Happy Trading

MtnGntx,

What DOES your handle stand for? I see Mountain Goat..?

Statins! (rhyme with Stalin?) EGADS. The conversation about doctors not being scientists and their being impacted by brand advertising is close to my heart and many people with trust in 'medcin' and caring for elders need to read this stuff. A client in her 90's who never took a drug until a recent episode of 'confusion' is now being whapped with 'management drugs' and like my own grandmother the grocery bag full of pills will no doubt kill her after Medicare and every Big Pharma has milked her last years. My client's daughter actually knows an MD who is also a Naturopath so there is hope.

Thanks for sharing!

Illini- A $10 check today is probably the equivalent of $100 ten years ago, assuming you would have invested the proceeds in the NDQ in the summer of 2000 and taking into account the recent weakness in the $USD. So enjoy the ten bucks!

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eric-sprott-we-ar...

If not then what next? Austrian?

Here is another link:

http://www.sprott.com/Docs/MarketsataGlance/07_10%...

Good trading to all.

ALOHA!!

Yes 2nd and a few more alternatives:

1-You die at age 70.
2-The system is in default.
3-USD loses 50% more in purchasing power.
4-Those profits you made are taxed at 50%+ capital gains.

However ... for those of you with enough wealth who want your cake and all the whip cream too then there is a little known SS loophole that says you can repay those benefits you took from age 62 to 66 and then get the higher payouts as if you chose 66 or 70 with no down time.

See that is the beauty of a corrupt monetary system as you cannot plan for the future simply because you do not know what taxes will be from one year to the next, much less ten years from now or 20. There is no stability. To compensate for the loss of purchasing power due to corrupt money the US Congress will raise taxes or create restrictions and regulations whereby you must jump through tax hoops in order to preserve wealth, skimming as close to "legal" as you possibly can. As if any of that will make any difference in the end. Who here believes that raising income taxes will cure the US Congress from spending and make the US Treasury whole again? Will one dime of additional taxes go to paying off the principle on the US Debt? Someone please show me where the principle was ever paid down, even in the best of economic times. It never has. The last year America was debt free, $0 debt, was in 1836. The principal was paid off. That was 174 years ago. Don't you think that if the US Congress and the US Treasury was serious about paying off any debt that they would have paid it off by now? Don't you think if they were serious about cutting spending and reducing the size of government that they would have done that by now? What have they been waiting for over the past 174 years? Just exactly how will they pay anything off or even cut spending now that we are in the Great Depression 2? The only way to seriously cut spending and reduce the debt in a meaningful manner is for government to shrink drastically by defaulting on Social Security and Medicare and Public pensions and ending the military industrial complex. Eliminate done and gone! Rather than those drastic steps they will make some token gesture to cut a few billion here and there and raise taxes on the last of the OPM and then in the end still default. Walk away ... its the new American Dream!

Look at that ... On August 12th, like clockwork, the US Treasury issued another $122.3BIL in short term debt. In one year or less Regular Series Bills $97.3BIL and in CMB $25BIL. That gives the US Treasury YTD a net US Debt increase of $1.41TRIL for FY 2010 so far. Only a month and a half left until FY 2010 is over.

Total withdrawals from the Federal Reserve account YTD is $9.9TRIL, almost $10TRIL for FY 2010 so far. Total YTD net tax revenues to back up those withdrawals is $1.31TRIL, nine times revenues. Oh wait ... what about deposits into the Federal Reserve. You did not mention any of that! Okay total deposits was $9.85TRIL whereby $7.33TRIL was made up of debt issues. The $7.33TRIL were actual Federal Reserve deposits, but if you look at actual total "marketable" debt issues it was $10.13TRIL USD. No matter how you slice it using debt to make up for a REVENUE DEFICIT is a losing proposition. It works until nobody wants your debt or you default. Just ask anyone who has used that strategy that now sits in Bankruptcy Court. With Reserve Currency status and corrupt monetary mouse clicks the con job has lasted way longer than it should have.

Social Security began as a system to insure that the elderly wouldn't starve. It took the place of the county poor farm systems. Most families took care of their parents and grandparents a hundred years ago but many elderly slipped through the cracks. FDR saw an opening for working the votes and took it. As a four term president he had to do some MAJOR vote buying. As an aside, my grandfather once told me that he harboured no malice against most men but that if he could, he would have shot Hitler, Tojo and FDR but not necessarily in that order...

Beginning in the 60's, government through SS increases and later Medicare essentially promised to take the burden off the children of the ageing. Grandma and Grandpa liked the idea of not 'being a burden' and the kids loved the premise that they would not be burdened. It was simply the continueing breakdown of the nuclear family and the costs were 'put off' actuarily to a future time, uncertain. Financial games were/are being played.

The bills are coming due. There is no money. The CPI adjustments since the Boskin commission have held down (artificially) the payouts for the last 15 years or so but demographics will now compel a serious debate on whether Social Security is a retirement replacement or a system that makes sure that Granny don't starve to death. Should Grampa rely on a social security check to make a mortgage payment on a house that he should already own? Bank Algorithms will allow a 70 year old man a 30 year mortgage. Stupidity dances with the devil and honey is exuded from the anuses of turkey buzzards. In my mind, it comes down to the poverty of our personal responsibility. Like a tragedy of the commons, no-one is held responsible for their plight in life.

Todays mantra is 'The Government must do something' while the Demi-Creteans and Re-Uglicans force you to choose sides in a no win battle on a road to nowhere. But in all fairness, the stupid wissy electorate get what it deserves; NO PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY!

God forbid we ever eviscerate our military. They are the only force standing between us and penury on the world stage of commerce. Think about how impotent our FED and TREASURY would be if we couldn't project absolute overwhelming power 10,000 miles away from our shores. Do you really believe that the U.S. Dollar would be the world's currency if our Navy didn't have a tonnage greater than the next 16 countries combined? Might may not be right but it gets you a lot of respect, for now.

Democracies foster and encourage the lack of common sense while expanding the franchise in the name of 'equality.' We have a monoply of two power parties whose only aim is to sell what ever is available for the retention of power.

Follow the money but know that money has no ethos other than its own.

A final observation. Freedom in its truest sense lays at the extremes of great wealth or absolute destitution. I'm afraid that in between is merely we boring pendants, lovable as we are!

So over the last 8 months, Mondays are consistently up - 66% of mondays show a gain. During a time period when the overall market is down -40 SPX points, Mondays are UP a grand total of 142 SPX points.

Which day has done worst? That would be Friday, which is down -156 SPX points. A good chunk of that (-101 points) is due to poor performance on opex fridays.

Of course, these sorts of things work great right up until they don't, but I thought the continued outlier performance of Monday was interesting enough to mention.

2nd,

"Once you reach your normal retirement age, you can continue to work while collecting benefits without fear of bumping up against the dreaded earnings cap, which trims $1 in benefits for every $2 you earn over the prescribed limit."

I did just that, but should have taken at 62. I'm not saying this is what others should do — just saying it depends on the individual's situation and I don't believe in pat answers to anything.

What happened in my case?

Bu the time I reach 65 my clients had virtually all gone to foreign countries or cheaper states. My last year in business (or pretending to be) my business income was 11% of my prior 40 year average. I dipped into savings and got lucky on my first real effort at day trading (Krispy Kreme KKD). I mean pure luck!

I determine after the fact that I could have taken it at 62 and about now at 72 would have been the break even point. (It also would have diminished my wife's SS further however, which she did take at 62.)

So far my kids will be eligible at 67. I expect somewhere along the line this and the outrageous gov and union pensions will all be drastically revised.

We don't hear this often, but the generation before me was the first to have pensions or even use the words "retirement age".

Bev and Loannetter,

Cholesterol Myth: I think [people need to realize THEY need to take responsibility for their own health (just the same as their own money).

If you have an older parent closely monitor what they are taking — both meds and advice.

Doctors are very busy people and may not be inclined or able to keep up with the speed of change.

I recently was told by my latest VA doctor that the RX which was discontinued there (now available over the counter costs 5x what I had been paying) can "cause high blood pressure."

I had taken it for 22 years for my asthma! Guess what... I'm now on BP meds. I stopped taking any asthma meds Feb. 22, 2010 and have had no attacks. I do carry an emergency inhaler, however. I "grew into it" at 50 and out again at 72. Go figure.

Wise advice Grym: "I think [people need to realize THEY need to take responsibility for their own health (just the same as their own money)."

And I would add for our own lives.
Help is fine but given on a regular unrelenting basis, imperceptibly the expectation grows that someone else is responsible for our individual welfare. It's a natural occurrence seen in humans and animals that receive hand outs; the slow inexorable slide from individual responsibility to begging. Like an unused muscle that atrophies. Regularly looking to others for decision making, for sustenance and the strength to carry on, gradually erodes one’s character and soul, until we become various shades of hollowed out shells.

Individual responsibility is the oxygen of our humanity.

I understand. I'm 63 but those of my parents generation had certain beliefs everyone knew were "cast in concrete"; I'm sure I have the same predisposition. A friends father slowly "faded away" because he followed the advice of his VA doctor as if it came from the Almighty, despite family protestations regarding treatment. Perhaps the VA doctor was right, but we will never know.

My wife takes a long list of medications including the statin Lipitor. There is an enormous amount of internet text regarding the statins. We will discuss this with our internal medicine doctor. But, in the end it's our responsibility to judge from the facts available.

gforce,
Kohl's seems to get things right, they do an exceptionally good job of advertising, customer identification and product selection. Their stores are not too huge or too small. My wife regularly receives 30-40% off and the occasional 75% off sale notices in the mail from Kohl's. These are cards that do not require opening and discarding an envelope, a small but pleasant touch. The clothes she buys at Kohl's are more classically styled and not quickly outdated. For us, this all adds up to a place we like to shop at.

Looking at a yahoo chart 1992-2010. Kohl's traded ~6M shares Sep 2002, Dec 2005 and variously Sep 2007-May 2009. The 2002 volume seems closest to the present. Although retailers always have seasonality issues, I don't see much of it in Kohl's stock prices. Perhaps I am missing a pattern using this long term chart. They have been range bound since 2000.

loannetter, have a link?

Johnny,

The Kohl's comments match what my wife has told me many times. Most current women's styles look bad even on a young, good looking girl — are they designed by women haters or do businesses have a death wish?

The only complaint I have from my experience is too few cash registers are open and I seem to get behind someone with a lot of problems requiring a super. But then, I have few reasons to hurry ;-)

I have them on my watch list for the next possible bottom. I wonder if David Rosenberg's 9000 Dow is close to it, but may start to nibble then anyway.

Lets step back and look at the forest.The first round of QE had a payback of around 10%, for every Trillion "invested", or sent into a "shovel ready" project, the GDP went up around $100B.The stock market did not go up based upon "real factors". 80% of the rise occurred on low volume after hours futures trades. This was gub'mint sponsored....they told HBB to work overtime and to pimp up the future afterhours in exchange for 1) saving their asses, 2) continued free money.Dabama is a great orator, great politician and fund raiser. He "gets it" when it comes to influencing humans. He doesn't know shit about business or the financial markets, and thinks that all we need is "con"fidence.No one wants to take their medicine before they have to, and your elected leaders are no different. They will try anything to avoid pain, even if the avoidance has a high likelihood of causing more serious pain.90% of the big financial problems--yes, it's a banking problem....the collapse of the easy money Ponzi scheme that really has been going on for several decades--- well 90% of those problems were just knowingly hidden and still exists (but hidden) on balance sheets. Do you know what "Mark to Market" means...if not, research it, it is very important. Don't just accept it like another financial buzzword.Speaking of buzzwords...whenever Wallstreet or FETV (Financial Entertainment Television) come up with some new buzzword...."shields up!"....that is when yet another shenanigan card is going to be played.OK, hope I covered the basics. Personally, 50% short on trading account into the weekend, enjoyed the nice mini-tank at EOD.

The so-called 'ENHANCE' study:

http://www.contentnejmorg.zuom.info/cgi/content/fu...

Excerpt:

'This seemingly rigorous and well-executed study of a combination therapy that has been approved by the Food and Drug Administration dramatically contradicts our expectations. "Lower is better" has been the mantra with respect to LDL cholesterol for the past two decades. During a period of 3 to 6 years, most controlled trials of statins, resins, or partial ileal bypass have shown clinical or imaging benefits that correlated with the concurrent reduction in LDL cholesterol.'

The interview with William K. Black starts at 13:00 in this video and is well worth seeing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Bf5Frx1lZk&feature...!

Courtesy of Jesse's Cafe

The one recurring theme on this thread seems to be 'Personal Responsibility.' I applaud those that take personal responsibility. It is the singular virtue that differentiates an honest man from the herd of men. Thinking and acting for ones self, dare I say in an honourable way, is increasingly lost on our socialistic sheeple. Up til now, life has been safer in the herd. The herd has been spooked and is racing pell mell towards a precipice.

Ok, question the cholesterol paradigm. I have no opinion and why should I. If you want 'green' aspirin, boil the bark of a willow. That's what Lewis and Clark did. Bayer will sell you the same molecular composition by cracking coal tar or nat gas. Monsanto does genetically what man has been doing for eons with selective breeding. Does anyone believe that poodle dogs were extant in 3000 BC?

We all have our foibles. Some maintain that the BP disaster has poisoned the Gulf for decades. Others believe that degraded oil is a natural fertilizer and the Gulf will bloom as a result. The one constant is that ALL will proclaim that 'time will tell.' When the jury is out, there is no decision therefore no-one is wrong.

Statistics seem to drive our daily lives. One who questions for the sake of 'personal responsibility' asks why they were compiled, by whom and to what end. Statistics as in a vacuum or used as a weapon by merceneries are simply the watered pablum for dullards or sugared teat milk for brigands. At best a usless guess. At worst, misinformation.

Just think for yourself. Do what you believe is in your best interest and whatever else, eschew obfuscation...And know that pigs are not halal or kosher because they do not sweat, they wallow and foul an oasis and are impossible to herd...

I can sympathise with Von Mises assertion in having watched the HBO series "Generation Kill" this last week. What a waste; what a screwup. It reminded me why I left the army. Now that I'm learning a little more here, I understand that its not only the military that is a monolithic, slow-to-change, wasteful bureaucracy. The political elite, the pharma-medico industry, finance - all seem to be tripping over themselves to screw up our future the best they can.

I am happy to meet a group of individuals looking for something better.

I'd wait for traders to return from vacation and bring back confirming vol. on a breakout (like the break in May) or preferably on a pullback with stop below 98. It could happen next week but the risk is higher. JMO

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo081310.pdf

I've only read the initial paragraphs of Mauldin's letter here, which is all i want to share with the group, but the bureaucratic wrangling and ineptitude illustrated by the EPA in response to international relief efforts is just...(insert whatever adjective you desire here).

Bill,
Up to this point my feelings on the so called "ground zero" mosque have been superficial. But after reading the opinions of those listed at your link, I have come to the conclusion that even two blocks away, it's insensitive and the insensitivity is obvious. It disturbs me that the Muslim community doesn't see it as such.

--------------- article
This article swayed me, "... from Charles Krauthammer’s opinion piece in the Washington Post that stoked debate before the Friday night White House dinner.

Location matters. Especially this location. Ground Zero is the site of the greatest mass murder in American history — perpetrated by Muslims of a particular Islamist orthodoxy in whose cause they died and in whose name they killed.

Of course that strain represents only a minority of Muslims. Islam is no more intrinsically Islamist than present-day Germany is Nazi — yet despite contemporary Germany’s innocence, no German of goodwill would even think of proposing a German cultural center at, say, Treblinka.

Which makes you wonder about the goodwill behind Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf’s proposal. This is a man who has called U.S. policy “an accessory to the crime” of 9/11 and, when recently asked whether Hamas is a terrorist organization, replied, “I’m not a politician. . . . The issue of terrorism is a very complex question.”

America is a free country where you can build whatever you want — but not anywhere. That’s why we have zoning laws. No liquor store near a school, no strip malls where they offend local sensibilities, and, if your house doesn’t meet community architectural codes, you cannot build at all."

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Another perception I have is a lack of consistent publication, documenting notable and regular Muslim outrage over the atrocities committed in the name of their faith. Prior, during and after 09/2001 I have not seen or read any especially pronounced series of articles, or prolonged outcry from the US or global Muslim community. Similarly, I think the Catholic church has done a less than adequate job of expectoration, transparency and public propitiation in the matter of documented pervasive child molestation.

Both matters are outrageous crimes against humanity. And both parties leave me with a sense of doubt that they are genuinely regretful for the actions of their wayward members, and doubt these behaviors will be eliminated and future faithful dissuaded from similar activity. So billions continue to be spent on defense against terrorism and church school closures are a matter of record.

'I have come to the conclusion that even two blocks away, it's insensitive and the insensitivity is obvious. It disturbs me that the Muslim community doesn't see it as such.'

Johnny- Your comment pretty much sums it up. We live in a time when being 'politically correct' (and what does that really mean to begin with- to some lawyers it means making a living suing small businesses for not providing unrestricted access to non-existent disabled patrons) often gets in the way of common sense and decency. At the very least, consider that time heals all wounds, and maybe 20 years from now it won't be an issue.

In some ways it's like watching someone date his best friend's ex-wife a few weeks following a divorce. 'Well, does it have to be her, and do you have to ask her now?'

Better leaders are born when the majority of the people are less apt to follow. Forcing the quality of leadership to rise.

America is a poorly cooked & soggy pancake. No need for good syrup.

in Switzerland, given concerns over lawsuits pending.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/Officials_blo...

I don't know how current this news is. If this decision is a surprise and not considered by investors the consolidation shaping up for a db on the daily could turn into further b/d on Monday. Something to watch.

Updated above, the tank down continues, ES leading the main FX correlators.

Iran could trigger some fireworks. And Russia is doing their nuclear construction...now there is really a match made in hell.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/iran-co...

And now, FETV is complicit in pimping out the idea that the bottom kill of the Gulf Well could actually result in release of 1000 barrels of oil, and should on that grounds be perhaps not carried out. Amazing the lies and misrepresentations the sheeple let themselves be fed. At this point, who gives a rats ass about 1000 barrels when so much more is already out there?

It is not that I disagree that they ought to pull the oil out of that reserve, they should, they need the money to do the cleanup and we need the oil. However, the way it is being played out in the media is just insulting. Kill the well, for sure, and then use the second relief well to pull the oil out. Duh!!!!!!!!!!!!

These folks do such an awesome job of plotting the moon cycles combined with TA, that I dont even try to replicate their work. Here it is. I see a slog or sled ride down for yet another V bottom "to be bought".

And the VIX/VXV chart, a great predictor of moves down. I use the daily chart with 2 BB to predict the little and big moves down. Refer to prior posts.

"... I have come to the conclusion that even two blocks away, it's insensitive and the insensitivity is obvious. It disturbs me that the Muslim community doesn't see it as such."

Jon Stewart (my source for news) pointed out that there is already a mosque 4 blocks from the site, and there are dozens of falafel vendors all over the area. Do people complain that (islamic) falafel vendors are somehow being insensitive by selling "muslim food" so close to the WTC site? Presumably if the actual NY natives were so upset, they'd stop buying from those insensitive vendors - yet they don't. Perhaps they know something we don't?

IMO this is much ado about nothing. Abortion, prayer in schools, gay marriage, flag burning - its all fodder to keep us distracted while the real crimes go unprosecuted. Fox News (and CNBC) has to sell ad time, and stuff like this sure does it. What an unholy alliance.

Davefairtex, a great comment, I couldn't agree more.

S&P -4.40 / -0.41%
Level 1,071.70
Fair Value 1,077.08
Difference -5.38
Nasdaq +6.25 / +0.34%
Level 1,821.50
Fair Value 1,817.57
Difference 3.93
Dow +5.00 / +0.05%
Level 10,271.00

Credit Agricole and Soc Gen selling hard

Who is Tony Robbins?
He looks kinda serious
Matt Damon gives an impressive note of caution in Green Zone. Enjoyed that immensely.

"Fergal O’Brien, from the Irish Business and Employers Confederation, said a quarter of Ireland’s private companies have cut wages, by 12pc on average. Dublin rents have halved. "Ireland has become a much cheaper place to do business. It costs 25pc less now than three years ago to set up a new enterprise," he said."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambrose...

07:39:17
(CA) US economist Paul Krugman made cautious comments about the Canadian economy at the annual CBA convention - Globe & Mail (Update)
- According to Krugman, Canada is not insulated from a global slowdown because its citizens spend too much and the country's housing bubble has yet to burst.
- In terms of the US, Krugman said the country's prospects are "dismal"

I was away yesterday and missed out on this topic.

I agree much of the talk on such issues IS distracting and may be politically designed to do just that. However, just because New Yorkers keep buying from vendors doesn't mean this is a non-issue.

Anyone familiar with the rise of Naziism has seen how gradually the threat to individual freedom increased.

The current economic malaise came about the same way over a couple of decades or more. Gradual removal of regulations, raising of margins for the biggest banks, lowering of lending standards and ratings laxness — leading to the polluted bond tranches.

The last couple of years have tripled U.S. national debt, destroyed millions more jobs and savings plans, nationalized major industries and created forced purchases of health insurance. Change way beyond anything I could have believed in! What part of this top-down control would Hitler have rejected?

I for one, am sick of hearing all the PC, diversity,"We're no better than anyone else talk." If we are no better, we should remember we used to at least try to be. This requires leaders who are first and foremost promoting America's unity NOT diversity! We all are inherently different. E Pluribus Unum is what made this country what it once was and could do it again. Politicians who work using the divide and conquer technique are destroying the "United" part.

We seem to be only thinking in terms of either/or threats. There may be multiple simultaneous threats. We can have people trying to control our lives and take over the country in multiple ways for different goals. Muslim extremists or financial opportunists need not be working together to benefit from the actions of each other.

Sounds fishy...how much weight do you put behind El-Erian? What is that about a house divided against itself at least nominally anyway?

Bill says if it lifts early in the week, watch its behavior...I am assuming he is referring to money flows into what used to be and may still be a hot sector; knowing it is commodity based.

This helps:

http://stockcharts.com next, click on free charts, then summary at right middle.

thanks... love doing the restoration... houses on this street and parallel streets are being snatched up in 2 weeks or less.. about 25 min. from downtown Charlotte ( Kings Mtn ).. great original craftsmanship from back when pride was taken in the constructuin quality, not the Speed of construction ( 30's & 40's ).. when a 2x4 Really was !! ).. moving alot of walls, etc., and taking advantage of areas for french doors, etc.. love blending old sytle construction with ' new ' materials ( Pella wds, etc ).. anyway, yes, ' orex ' is the red-headed step-child, but if you notice ( and I am sure you have ) comparisons are always between VVUS and ARNA.. the safety profile of orex's combination has been marketed for over 10 years, and are still on the market and selling.. perhaps ARNA will be approved, but just as the pundits are playing up the fact that its a ' new drug ' ( not really, but that discussion would take up ten pages ), that also, may work against them.. maybe all three orex, vvus, arna ) will never see market, but I will be buying ' orex ' after the ' arna ' decision ( probably in Nov )... as an aside, ' immu ' may be of interest to you... no hurry here, but, as I have written before, this is HGSI's main threat.... best of trades to you, Toby.... baz