Morning Call [8:29am ET] Buy into weakness; sell into strength is the mantra of traders who know how to make profits. I’d like to show you how.
Yesterday I commented to George in the blog that my trading wasn’t up to par. Well, actually it was, but I happen to be a fairly modest “Wizard”. I just feel the pressure; that’s all – even though I deny it usually.
Yesterday the Junior Gold index (GDXJ) dropped -0.45%, but my Select Junior Gold portfolio was up +1.32% on the day. The Ultra Silver ETF (AGQ) soared +4.35%, while the inverse UltraShort Silver ETF plummeted -4.27%.
Check the charts:
What did I do to win? Three moves.
#1: Sold a 20% portfolio weighting of GDXJ (from a beginning 50%) at $27.06, where it promptly fell to $26.55.
#2: Sold a 4.5% weighting of AGQ (from a beginning 5% weighting) at $60.98, where it promptly plunged to %60.27.
#3: Bought a 40% weighting in ZSL (from a beginning 0.5% weighting) at $32.12 and watched it lift all the way to $32.69.
So, yesterday, at least, things were going my way, and I felt I should not be giving the impression they weren’t.
George, who I met at the Cara Bahamas 2010 Conference in Freeport, who btw didn’t know any of this, followed up his comment in the blog with a letter, to which I responded. I am a transparent person; so here’s the to-and-fro:
Bill,
You have suggested a general upside of 1-2% from the high of the morning which has been about 1123 on the $SPX (% would equate to the 1130 -1150 range).
Then over the next few months a general low area towards -10% or so with additional buy points for long term investors.
Also, you have cautioned that a too exuberant opening this morning would be not so good for the daily bulls.
These guideposts are really impressive to me.
I do know that these "fixed stars" can be altered as market conditions change but there are few if any Pundits that would be willing to "put it out there" and provide this kind of outline. (And for free - do think that you should charge a monthly fee for people on the site!)
Would have posted this but it seems more of a personal nature and also I don't want to risk putting any words in your mouth publicly so to speak.
Respectfully,
George
(To) George,
Thank you for the support. I have always said that managing money for
clients when you are a nameless face in a big firm (I used to work for
[RBC] Dominion Securities Investment Management) is relatively easy. The
toughest part of what I do is that I write as well as trade, and I
have myself behind the 8-ball with the nickname "Trader Wizard". This
is a big stress on me.A week ago I brought on board a really outstanding pro trader who will
work alongside me while Geoff and Patrick work as the other unit.
Every morning we spend 20 to 45 minutes in conference and then during
the session we have a running text message file. Eventually, when I
integrate the other trader and myself behind an expanded client
service, aided by some powerful self-built computer models, I'll be
able to relax a bit. Then I'll probably set up a premium timing
service for traders who want to go it alone, and of course there will
be Vad who will also offer his services for a fee.Thanks again.
/Bill
I am always planning; always thinking a couple steps ahead. Eventually I get it right. I just don’t know why I beat myself up in the meantime. :-)
I do know, however, that to be a Wizard you have to buy into weakness and sell into strength, and that’s not natural to most people.
Have a great day. I’m late for a meeting, so I’ll have to leave it there.
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
“Tedious, boring, uneventful, frustrating, and a total waste of time” would be an understatement when describing the price action Tuesday. Nothing was resolved today, no useful information uncovered; with the US unemployment report scheduled to be released Friday traders may opt to hit the beach rather than risk capital for the next few sessions.
The S&P (-0.46%) drifted down in low volume, failing to make it up into the target zone of 1130 to 1150. At this point the near-term direction is a coin flip; either the market is consolidating just under a widely known resistance area – the pause that refreshes, shaking out weak longs and sucking in unsuspecting shorts – or the buyers have run out of ammunition and are unable to propel equities even to the lowest target price.
Many times traders just don’t know which way the market is eventually going to break, needing to let the market show its hand. Doing your homework ahead of time allows you to be prepared for a move in either direction, ready to act when the time is right.
Breaking below the uptrend off the July lows and the 20- and 50-day moving averages will be a warning sign that this one-month advance is running out of steam.
Trade what you see, not what you feel.
Have a great evening.
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Comments
Cara 100 Update
BA - estimates raised at Oppenheimer. Boeing estimates were increased through 2011, according to Oppenheimer. Company is seeing higher margin in commercial aerospace. Outperform rating and $80 price target.
CMI 'Daily Growth Index' Turns Sharply Down
Consumer Metrics Institute News: August 3, 2010 -
[Lakewood, Colorado] Since last week our 'Daily Growth Index' has dropped significantly, putting the trailing 91-day moving 'quarter' at a contraction level that would place a similar calendar quarter of GDP growth below the 5th percentile of all quarters since 1947. Under normal circumstances we might expect a quarter that bad once in slightly over 5 years.
consumermetricsinstitute.com
Relative performance of Select Junior Gold
For the past quarter (since inception), the Cara Select Junior Gold portfolio is $103483 (+3.5%) whereas the Junior Goldminer Index (GDXJ) is at a comparable $90,987 (-9.0%). While far outperforming the market, it was a real challenge in July as basically traders shifted capital out of high risk precious metals and switched to large cap North American equities.
ERJ
Thanks for the heads up in the WIR this past Sunday on EJR. As I posted yesterday on the blog I shorted it near the closing and so far this morning it has drop more than a point from where I shorted it.
Factory Orders
Highlights from Econoday
Factory orders fell 1.2 percent in June which follows a 1.8 percent drop in May (revised downward from minus 1.4 percent). The decline for the durable goods component was revised two tenths lower to 1.2 percent. Orders for nondurable goods fell 1.3 percent. The data show declines across many categories including for both capital and consumer goods.
Outside of orders, factory shipments fell 0.8 percent following May's 1.8 percent decline. Unfilled orders were unchanged while inventories slipped 0.1 percent.
Yesterday's ISM manufacturing report showed slowing in new orders and backlog orders which points to trouble for this report for July. The leadership of the manufacturing sector, which had been prominent in the recovery, is beginning to fall into question.
jobs? - attitudes of the "entitled" rich
Amazing how the rich feel entitled, and disdain those below them. My ex-brother-in-law was from a family with $3B (per Forbes) who felt entitled to his trust fund. He had started a "toy business" on the side, made money (after propping up as needed) and felt all the more certain he deserved his money. By contrast, the "people" are stupid and lazy ... His business: AM commercial radio - not so aristocratic, either ....
dips getting bought
Well as always its market's reaction to news, not the news that matters. In this case, almost uniformly bad news got bought, and now we're almost back to even. Looks like the bears don't have any conviction right now...either that's about threatened QE, actual (stealth) QE, or the strong euro, or some other thing I'm not seeing, but it doesn't pay to stand in the way now does it? :)
Even gold is getting a little love today.
bloomberg radio
I'm doing a 35min commute these days with sat radio in the car. Bloomberg radio available. I can't believe the inanity of discussions and commentary, and proliferation of commercials that make it unlistenable.
Perceived negative news is nearly always "unexpected" as in consumer spending, new home sales, J&J earnings worse than expected.
America can only bear to talk about the up. What goes up must revert to the mean, and even overshoot to the downside.
Compare to BNN, little spin. A wide selection of horses' mouth commentary from the best analysts, ceo's and commentators talking straight. Too bad they're not on. For you who are interested, most of the day is archived on about a 1 hr delay at watchbnn.ca or bnn.ca. I often go thru at night and build a line up of what I want to hear from the day, and it plays thru without a commercial.
Re: jobs? - attitudes of the "entitled" rich
Those attitudes of entitlement are a source of many problems in the US.
A recent example is the Arizona Immigration issue. The rich feel entitled to employ cheap illegal Mexican labor and pass the cost of medical, educational and social services on to the public. The labor would not be as cheap if rich employers not the public had to pay such expenses. Perhaps Mexican illegal immigration would not be such a hot problem if the public was not burdened with such expenses.
The Federal government is treating these expenses as non-existent because they have burdened the States with them. The States are rebelling in part because of the expense of supporting these illegals especially now that many are unemployed and remain in the US to receive US benefits.
The States and their subdivisions will be laying off many public workers because of insufficient tax revenues at a time when they are compelled to continue to provide benefits to illegals who were victimized by the rich. This is a problem that has barely surfaced.
Interesting item on mine finance
Hallgarten mining analyst Christopher Ecclestone suggested Monday that there is "trouble in paradise" because gold ETFs diverted funds that might have otherwise gone to a broader universe of mining stocks.
"It has created an unworthy aristocracy of stocks, particularly in the gold space," he insisted.
http://tinyurl.com/3a9otwv
Implication to me is that dealmakers may be the "best" investments e.g. KGC, NGD and perhaps anything McEwen related.
FD: long KGC, NGD, and many from the McEwen stable
Re: dips getting bought
Dft-you are absolutely right. This is so deja vu, market powers up on good/bad/indifferent news.
Just look at the Wells Fargo/Gallup survey. http://tinyurl.com/2fr66ms These charts practically reek of another leg down, confirming everything Consumer Metrics is saying. I wish Geithner was at the State Unemployment Offices as a Greeter, saying "Welcome to the Recovery" to everyone that enters. Bernanke saying that he expects the consumer to drive spending; on what income as salaries and wages are flat. These "leaders" are taking us over the cliff. Vad's comments about how fast things could change in Russia play in my mind constantly.
Re: dips getting bought
removed
...
' isph '... cystic fib. phase III ' Tiger ' results upcoming in Q 1.. good data... DD
Re: dips getting bought
ALOHA!!
The WF/GALLUP INDEX mirrors the NFIB SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX, which I prefer since the NFIB directly represents small businesses like mine. A large bank like Wells Fargo is tainted. Still the same data confirms what I have been posting via the NFIB and that is that small business in America is on the ropes.
NFIB LINK: http://www.nfib.com/
Without a vibrant and thriving small business America will never recover ... more specifically the Middle Class will never recover. I am not surprised that the Obama Regime has thrown small business table scraps while literally handing big banks the keys to the White House. I want to remind everyone the first Obama Small Business Initiative left out the NFIB but included GM execs and UAW and SEIC bosses. Freudian Slip or just Stockholm Syndrome? Actions speak volumes ... November is coming!
Re: dips getting bought
Kaimu
Are you and other small businesses you know trying to do everything (computers, machines, etc) you can to take humans out of the company?
Re: dips getting bought
Any capital - labor trade off that makes my workers more productive is analyzed. And yes, it might eliminate a job or cause one to not be created. Even small companies are competing in a world economy and third world wage scales do impinge, even though they might not be easily correlated.
Jock 8/03/10 #66577
the interview w/Felix Z was truly riveting.....if you can only listen to one snippit go to the second part and fast forward in about 9 minutes........makes one very conservative, been doing stuff very cautiously lately anyway and leaving $$ on the table but thats OK, SD w/tight calls and puts, PFE which might get take away today as I sold the 16 calls and it goes ex-div tomorrow, just sold a few of Baz22s ISPH reco puts to buy below $5, etc. Have a great day
Re: dips getting bought
The average GDP incorporating the past four quarters means while ugly is positive for continued job growth so reasons the business insider:
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-are-markets-ign...
edit:
To me this would be reason enough for companies like GE, FDX, and others to feel that their earnings visibility is clearing. However, someone has said and I believe that the market is not so obvious and tends to drop kick the most it can.
Re: Interesting item on mine finance
The Gold/XAU ratio of 7 is in synch with Ecclestone's view on valuation and GLD et al are surely siphoning some investment from (direct) investment in miners; however, gold sector takeovers are setting a record this year.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&s...
Sticking my neck out again
Yesterday I showed a chart of ERJ which had an indicator a friend of mine developed that shows distribution & Accumulation of "non retail money". The chart [see yesterday's post]showed a negative divergence between price and the indicator. Today ERJ has been selling off.
Well a few mins ago I saw a chart of his which shows a positive divergence for UUP. But more importantly he sent out this heads up that I thought I would share with the group.
"The 5 min ranks of distribution have migrated to the 10-15, and even 30-60-min.
Although we will get the bumps in the road, this could very well be the start of a major trend reversal. "
Here is a chart for APPL
One word... UGLY! See the negative divergence.
Re: Sticking my neck out again
Submitted by Bev (656 comments) on Tue, 08/03/2010 - 15:22 #66611
"The 5 min ranks of distribution have migrated to the 10-15, and even 30-60-min.
Although we will get the bumps in the road, this could very well be the start of a major trend reversal. "
If in fact this plays out, as a theory, then would it make sense for BURNanke, etc, to start a tightening cycle here? Since the ROW is supposedly recovering and can pick up the slack and the financial world is stabilizing, would now be a good time to normalize the stimulus and restore faith in the dollar? Can markets do well in a rising rate environment?
Just asking; the fed does like to surprise or they used to.
the dollar
It's been on a steady move downhill since June 7th - again perhaps stealth QE, perhaps threatened QE, perhaps just Europe not dissolving. Whatever, it may be approaching some support now down here at 80. If we get a dollar bounce for a bit, what happens to US equities and commodities? I'm guessing nothing good. Although the market is doing well given the news today, both homebuilders and retailers are still feeling the pain. Might it become general pain on a dollar rebound off USDX 80?
Re: Here is a chart for APPL
davefairtex
This is how the UUP looks with his indicator.
Re: Here is a chart for APPL
Bev - 3 day charts don't mean much in this market, I'm afraid.
Re: the dollar
Regarding homebuilders, a brief perusal of XHB reveals that the combined market cap of the top-10 holdings is about $23B. That is less than 10% of AAPL's market cap. I doubt that any news, good or bad regarding homebuilders will have a substantial affect on the broader markets. Nobody is expecting anything from the homebuilding sector.
"Three moves."
These were shared by Bill this morning which seem to be awfully insightful information on real trading. This and other posts from Bill would have made a great case study in my MBA finance class at Wash U.
Do wonder why I can't find one post today acknowledging what is being freely given.
Blackberry -- spy vrs. spy ... in the West and Mideast
Interesting facts and questions are emerging from BB's travails in DC and the MidEast.
- BB's (in corporate use) incorporate msg. servers residing on corporate premises, and use encryption (handset-to-handset, end-to-end) which seemingly can only be cracked by the world's largest spying organizations (NSA!- the rest of the West? China? Russia?) I think that's why BB was considered OK out of the box for candidate Obama, but NOT for President Obama!
- it seems that CORPORATE BB's have strongly encrypted IM and email, but CONSUMER BB's DON'T. Msg servers for BB's consumer-users (on carrier premises, which presumably indemnifies carriers who cooperate with NSA - per the "Patriot Act" ammendments) are apparently NOT encrypted. Huh? isn't privacy important for just plain folks too?
(Private eyes usually have relationships within telephone companies. If telcos share BB codes with NSA, they're likely lax on controls generally. If PI's can get codes, this means that business rivals and estranged spouses can also afford to obtain monitoring of consumer BB's. It's not just those who wish privacy vrs. NSA who need to think about this!)
- UAE gov't (which, recall, just months ago released to the world suveillance video of that gaggle of Mossad assassins before and after their dirty deed in Dubai) became upset at their inability to monitor BB msgs. RIM had refused to locate msg. servers in UAE; and presumably NSA is not sharing encryption codes with the UAE gov't.
- Presumably under orders from an angry UAE gov't, UAE carriers in early 2010 remotely installed a "software upgrade" on local BB's, which was later found to be spyware, and was apparently subject of warnings to BB users from RIM.
- Whatever else may have transpired behind the scenes, UAE gov't has now decreed that BB msging services will be turned off in UAE in Oct. Saudi Arabia is shutting service down sooner, and India is still tussling with RIM.
the takeaway from UAE, Saudi, India: events seem to be moving towards "If we can't spy upon it, you can't use it!"
the takeaway from USA: we CAN spy upon it. Feel free to use your BB!
Notice that no gov'ts have expressed any qualms about iPHONES or ANDROID
the takeaway: these phones are EASY to spy upon .... use them at will!
Am the only one concerned about such developments?
Time was when wiretaps were allowed under court order only. Even if some bad guys got away with private communications, the interests of the public in privacy ruled.
No more, it seems !
Re: Here is a chart for APPL
teamonfuego you are correct a 3 day chart doesn't mean much in this market or any market for that fact. What I posted above it what I have current for APPL and if you note it is a 1 min time frame. This is not from my charting software so I can only post what I am sent. But I did find two previous charts that were sent. One is a daily dated July 16 which covers the past 12mo+ and a weekly dated July 28 that covers the last 1.5yr.
If you look at yesterday's ERJ 15 min chart you can see that it predicted today's ERJ sell off. He claims it shows that the so called non retail money knew of the earnings report before the release. They were already distributing going into earnings.
http://caracommunity.com/sites/default/files/ERJ.png
Effect of Spill on Real Estate = $3B+
Sad but predictable news regarding property values in the affected Gulf States: http://www.inman.com/news/2010/08/2/gulf-spills-re...
Re: Here is a chart for APPL
I know this is picky, but why not just call it institutional money instead of non retail money?
I'd be interested in how he/she interpret's volume to determine non-retail versus something else. Other then that interesting indicator.
Mutual Fund Cash Levels
Mutual Fund Cash Levels
http://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders...
Courtesy Jesse
Re: dips getting bought
ALOHA!!
"Are you and other small businesses you know trying to do everything (computers, machines, etc) you can to take humans out of the company?"
With horticulture type agriculture its hard to take humans out of the equation as they have yet to invent a computer who will cut and arrange flower bouquets and do the many other myriad of tasks needed to run an orchid nursery. I have cut back on employees over the past year and I do not intend to hire unless and when I can market myself back to higher production levels. I do not see that happening any time soon. I may have some foreign opportunities in the not so distant future, but nothing is for sure yet.
My main focus has been to streamline operations and jettison all debt. Many other nurseries here made the mistake of taking on more debt and expanding a few years ago when I was shrinking my production area. There is no sense in having to maintain plants that produce orchid sprays you cannot sell.
Today I had to drive in an old nursery owner neighbor to Hilo for a colonoscopy. On the way back we started talking about employees. He mentioned that he thinks it will be a long time before small business starts rehiring because as businesses streamline and get used to less employees there is no incentive to increase overhead. Trimming the "fat" may be a permanent mind set! Who wants the new headaches of universal healthcare and more payroll taxes and regulations that come with hiring more employees? I certainly do not. I still believe the best way to get small business booming is for government to shrink by 50% and give small business a 5 or 10 year income tax exemption. You would see a heck of a lot of business people hiring again and new businesses starting up. At some point we have to choose between BIG GOVERNMENT or JOBS. PRIVATE OR PUBLIC? You cannot have both.
As it turns out I am looking at buying another nursery that fell victim to excessive debt through malinvestment. Some miscalculations have resulted in some very old nurseries closing. One locally here had a PO BOX number of ONE, so that is old! The other disadvantage these farmers have here is that they have no diversification. It was ag or nothing! As for me I am widely diversified and moved my capital out of ag and real estate all together. This is what many farmers should adhere to during the GOOD TIMES, but as many in real estate assumed, so the farmers thought that the GOOD TIMES would last forever. I think I am the only farmer in the State of Hawaii who owns gold stocks in Ghana, West Africa and Perth, West Australia.
I have to say that the one bright spot here in Hawaii have been the regional banks like Bank Of Hawaii and First Hawaiian and the rest. They did not suffer the huge losses like other banks in the USA have. All of the CPAs I know say they are very strong US banks. Even though real estate prices have come down across the board since 2007 they have not suffered anywhere as bad as Nevada and Florida. I think this is due to the Asian influence. Though they got burned once in the 1980s they are now a lot more cautious, but I am seeing more Chinese fill the Japanese shoes.
Hawaii will always be an attractive place to live and retire. Its up to the State to keep it that way. We'll see how that goes as government is always a big question mark ... ???? THE LESS THE BETTER!!
New participants here
Sometimes the new blog attempts are put into a hold by the system until I personally get around to releasing them for publishing. That happens because about 20% of the first time blogs are spam attempts, and so the hold period has nothing to do with you. You, in fact, whomever you are, are quite welcome here unless your intention is to be a trouble maker. I hope everybody agrees that things are going pretty well here and that the few rules we have are a-ok.
Re: New participants here
Bill,
Thanks for the welcome as this is my first blog post. I've been reading and learning from you and this site for several months. I will try to only post insightful info. that I might find useful and ask a question or make a comment now and then.
As a retiree, it just appears to me the US govt. does not understand that by keeping interest rates near zero, many retirees and conservative investors must save more to make up for lost income from bond related investments. This hurts the economy. Thanks again for your insightful comments each day.
Re: New participants here
Roger that, Bill.
Re: New participants here
Other than my rants, your filter is fine. Lurkers speak up!
Re: New participants here
Thanks Bill , the blog is great . The market is problem . Thank you for all you do . Bob .
euro headed down in asia
And its taking the SPX right along with it. Is the euro/SPX correlation active once again?
SLR UPDATE
ALOHA!!
On Wednesday, 8/4, Silver Lake Resources(SLR:ASX) announced the purchase of a 2.5mtpa milling circuit at a cost of $3MilAUD for the Murchison and Mt. Monger mines. The share price closed up at an all time high of $2.11AUD, over 8%, on good volume. This was a game changer as now more production is fast tracked. So what was alluded to in the Quarterly Activities Report on 07/30, then confirmed in the Diggers & Dealers Presentation announcement two days ago is now reality today. More mine life and more production. Looks like it was a great deal on the mill and since there is plenty of cash on hand it becomes non-dilutive and can be marked as a direct asset and not a debt liability. The only info I could not find out is an exact time table for the construction and the testing and the actual production. Now production at two and possible three centers.
LINK: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100804/pdf/31rqllyv...
At any rate compare these events to TSX listed companies like UXG that seem to forever be drilling without cash flow and barely a 43-101 in hand. Without ROB POWER UXG would be under $1CDN instead of $5. Still at $5 it is double what shares of SLR are at if you kick in the exchange rate. I am not sure some of the heavily touted TSX explorers are properly valued compared to other opportunities that exist outside of Canada. I am sure the Canadian HB&B and institutions have a lot to do with that in terms of promos, but start looking behind the scenes at the ASX resource companies and you start seeing heavy hitters like Sprott and even JP Morgan UK. Still by moving out of the TSX at the right time I'm looking at a 1240% gain on SLR with no funds invested. Had I not sold UXG when I did and held I would only have a 690% gain now in UXG over a four year period. Instead I sold UXG for an average gain of 950% and then moved that to SLR for another gain of 1240%, total gain within a four year period over 2190% if you count currency leverage, which now accounts for around a 35% gain then its over 2200% long term gain taxed at lower rates. Now if you are buying UXG at $2 or $3 or even $5 how long before you ever see a 2200% gain? Buying at $2 UXG would have to hit $44 a share for a 2200% gain. Where's the funds going to come from to construct a mine in Mexico? And how long will that take? I am not saying UXG is a waste of time, but I am saying there were way better trades out there.
It pays to move to other exchanges where you can use your currency arbitrage as leverage, especially if you hold a USD or held some back in 2008. When you own shares in a producing gold mining company you own two currencies, the first is the one the stock trades in and the second is the one that will replace it. To put it in simpler words the company is "mining money not debt", especially if the company doing the mining has no debt and no hedge, which SLR has none. Don't let those factoids escape you.
Really, in truth, I owe such gains to a large mining and stock network that spans from San Diego to San Francisco to Reno to Las Vegas to Scottsdale to Phoenix to Vancouver to Montreal to London to Geneva to Sydney to Perth to Johannesburg and to Accra. There is no way any one person can sift through a gazillion miles of data and be in twenty places at once. It takes years to do, but in the end fifty heads and nearly 100 eyes are better than one! In return I am their network in Hawaii. It works ...
It seems that GBP/USD is more
It seems that GBP/USD is more correlate, Euro getting gamed all over the place.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
BBBY - Bed Bath & Beyond initiated with a Buy at Jefferies. Target $48.
DOW - Dow Chemical downgraded to Neutral from Conviction Buy at Goldman following the worse than expected Q2 report. Target $30.
HBC - HSBC upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at CLSA.
Re: dips getting bought
"Today I had to drive in an old nursery owner neighbor to Hilo for a colonoscopy."
I was a bit nervous when I went in for my first one. There I was all wired up like some lab ratwhen the Doc popped in the door saying, "Oh yes, you're the one here for the sex-change." Then everything went black. When I woke in what seemed like a few seconds — all was fine — it was all like a bad dream.
"My main focus has been to streamline operations and jettison all debt."
If only those in control would try this and I could wake once more from this bad dream.