Bill Cara’s Blog for February 1, 2010 [See post-close report]

http://www.fx360.com/

$ bullishness related to GDP numbers last week. No change of tune from them yet.

I noticed that some of members made some positive remarks on toyota lately regarding the recalls. I have 2 toyotas and I can tell you that the recall is loo little too late. The problem dates back to 2002 and is responsible for at least 23 deaths and numerous crashes and injuries, yet Toyota kept quit (by settling out of court with victims) till last year when this exploded in the press. We are actually seeing a tip of the iceberg as eventually most of Toyota cars with drive-by-wire will be recalled as the fault is not only the floor mat or the pedal. There are probably some software glitches, but most importantly, no fail-safe mechanism to stop WOT, when brakes are pressed.

This is a good primer on the problem: http://www.safetyresearch.net/toyota-sudden-uninte...

Toyota is looking at an Audi like fiasco down the road and probably a good short candidate.

FD: I like Toyota cars and their fuel efficiency, but Toyota's behavior is inexcusable.

the long term chart looks awful. Is this an investment opportunity?
http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/rh1825lnb.html

Bill, is the ticker RBC on the Toronto? In New York the ticker is RY, correct?

Wow, I have far too many damn coconuts in my backyard, great idea.

Just wondering why Cara 100 has taken so long to add RY:T Royal Bank on TSX

I have a 2007 Camry which has been flawless mechanically - except for the one and only repair to date: early on, I had an issue with the accelerator wherein taking the foot off the gas the vehicle would coast along and then there was a delayed response where the RPM's would drop suddenly causing the vehicle to shunt. It was like driving a golf cart when you take your foot off the throttle. A computer module that regulates fule delivery was replaced and no problems since. My guess is that the real problem is not the gas pedal but in the computer controls and this will be a very expensive fix when all is said and done. I see this as a "death of a thousand knife cuts " for TM stock and wouldn't be a holder going ahead. I looked at a Buick Lacrosse on Saturday - but what is my Camry trade-in value going to be?

XLF 5 min chart. H&S top or Ascending wedge? http://bit.ly/9waWAc.

One of the two will be confirmed soon.

What a day! Refer to my previous posts on this stock. As a refresher I mentioned that a great opportunity to enter the stock was start nibbling at $2.30 and that $2.20-2.25 would be a target for large accumulations!
Well that is what happened on Friday and today the stock has broken above $2.40, around a 8% move. Volume now over 550K. For those that got it, you can lock in a stop at $2.25 or use a trailing stop. The amount depends upon your risk tolerance, everyone is different. Good luck!

There is a write up in the Journal today on my local school district - I think this type of thing is going to be all too common very soon.

http://tinyurl.com/y95teda

I should have mentioned this much sooner. Someone I know purchased at 0.28 about a week ago. Going thru $2.60 today. Is this a short squeeze, or what? Any more juice in this lemon?

Price congestion on multiple time frames (5, 60 minute) FWIW.

They are good for making the sounds of horses (Monty Python)

markets made their % gains in the 1st hour, and have been pinned at those levels. Any feedback?

Ross, TerryC, Blackjack,

Computers are great... for some things. For others the complication outweighs the cost and benefits.

My 1991 VW Jetta GLI, 5-speed, would first allow me to put in the clutch pedal and simply turn off the switch to avoid throwing a rod.

This whole episode reminds me of a Jacques Barzun book,"Science: The Glorious Entertainment," in which he points out some of the absurdities we deal with when opting for the latest new gizmo or fad. One example I recall is a guy at a campground trying to fix the air conditioning in his motor home :-)

First of all - yes nemo I can probably climb trees, but - who wants to when you can just drop 10 baht on the table and walk away with your cool baggie of coconut juice? Is it age that makes me lazy - or wisdom?

Bill - there's definitely something to be said for fresh food, as opposed to the processed stuff we're used to in "civilization." I lose weight here too. I'm guessing processed foods are why America is so chubby these days.

(I am secretly jealous of your coconut grove. There's something about Free Food that really appeals to me)

Third, papadynamite I followed you into UXG at 2.30 and 2.25 as well. If there's one stock I seem to do consistently well with, it's UXG. Perhaps it has such small trading volumes that it is beneath the notice of the Big Boys, and so the boxes don't pay attention to it. Whatever the reason, what it does seems to make sense, and - let it be so for a long long time to come.

I wonder how much aggregate volume Cara Community is responsible for in UXG?

NYU - I'm definitely seeing more resistance to upward movement on SPX vs, say, gold, relative to dollar movement. Its taking a lower and lower buck to push SPX back to its previous highs, while each dollar low causes gold to break out further to the upside. You could be right. Of course, there are a lot of resistance points on the intraday SPX chart so - maybe that's the reason instead.

I am seeing an ascending triangle on SPX though - so it may surprise us if the buck keeps dropping like it has been all day long. Bill sure got it right with gold's resistance level, as well as the dollar move being a bit tired. Maybe its the - coconut milk. (I don't think it's the gin)

I had my first fresh drilled cocoanut on a long dusty bus ride in India. Ever see an obese person in India? Of course they are 95% vegetarian. Fresh stuff with spices like cumin and cinnamon all very good for lowering blood pressure.

The main toxin in our food culture is ultra cheap high fructose corn syrup used in everthing including canned vegetables, sauces and so called 'heathy' soups, juices, you name it. Not to mention BSP lining the cans, a known carcinogen leeching into the food for possibly years on the shelf.

Here's the second part of a very informative YouTube (nine parts...this one connects obsesity by disarming the 'satity' hormone Leptin - so we are constantly hungry) http://tinyurl.com/y87esbc

"Today, 55 percent of sweeteners used in food and beverage manufacturing are made from corn, and the number one source of calories in America is soda, in the form of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS). In fact, the average American drinks 60 gallons of soda every year."

And the cows gorge on corn fructose in the last 30 days of their lives to fatten them up as much as possible
before slaughter. They are naturally designed to eat only hay. It is apparent that the Western diet accomplishes the same with human beings.

It takes a concerted effort to avoid HFCS. The stuff is everywhere.... same with MSG.

A stroll through the average grocery store one finds a majority of the food sold are combinations of oil,wheat,
corn, salt and HFCS or sugar with a sprinkling of assorted chemicals.

HFCS and water and acid.... that's a Coke or Pepsi. PH is about 2.5. Most diet versions
substitute aspartame for HFCS. Good news is that the natural sweetner Stevia may replace Aspartame once
supplies are large enough to produce the product. It is a naturally derived sweetener without calories.
You can buy Stevia packets now... to help reduce your sugar intake.

This may be a signal they go private and stick the middle finger one last time to Obama and the American public.

In a stable market,which some day we will have again,I feel Metro bank will be of interest . Vernon Hill founded Commerce Bancorp of N.J. which was bought out by Toronto Dominion of Canada , now T D Commerce . Now Hill and partners have bought out First Republic bank of Philadelphia and renamed it Metro bank . Bill says to follow the jockey not the horse. As far as I can tell this man is a successful banker that steered clear of the Trash that fouled up our banking system . I believe he intends to do it again. Mr. Hill had been forced out of Commerce bank in 2007 by the office of the Comptroller of the currency regarding business dealings between Hill and his family ,no charges were made although the O.C.C. issued a cease and desist order relating to future real estate dealings. He been doing this over thirty years,but his ambition is incredible , its in the paper today he has formed another banking corporation in the U.K., Opening the first new high street bank chain in one hundred and fifty years. I believe its a name for the future, in a stable market. Do your own due diligence. http://tinyurl.com/y9tl65a http://tinyurl.com/ygq7u6r

METR

I have not heard too much here about Khan Resources seems to be moving with recent favourable news. I am a holder of the stock,

1.00
+0.14 (16.28%)
Feb 1 - Close

That's great, man. Let me know if you're planning a chapter on the Master Butcher:

The harder one tries, the more resistance one creates for oneself. The more one acts in harmony with the universe, the more one will achieve, with less effort.

There was once a butcher who was carving a joint of meat for a customer who had been coming for many years.

“Pardon me,” the customer asked, “But isn’t that the same knife you had last year? Do you need to sharpen it often?”

“It’s the same knife I’ve had for the last 17 years,” the butcher replied, “And I haven’t had to sharpen it even once. For, when I cut the meat, I allow the knife to find its own way through the flesh without effort or stress.

“And when I come to a tricky bit with lots of cartilage, I just slow down and allow the mystery to solve itself and in no time the meat falls right off the blade.”

According to the biology presented, the nutritional effect of one soda drink is 90 calories to one beer at 92 calories. Ethanol in alcohol has the same effect upon the liver as a high fructose corn syrup drink less the buzz. Of course we have a wonderful mix of other chemicals in soda drinks to consider upon brain growth and replacing real nutrients with artificial stimulants etc. US corporations are supersizing us into an obsese, addicted species.

The first of the nine part series is here: http://tinyurl.com/ylxk4xc

"

That's great, man. Let me know if you're planning a chapter on the Master Butcher:

The harder one tries, the more resistance one creates for oneself. The more one acts in harmony with the universe, the more one will achieve, with less effort.

There was once a butcher who was carving a joint of meat for a customer who had been coming for many years.

“Pardon me,” the customer asked, “But isn’t that the same knife you had last year? Do you need to sharpen it often?”

“It’s the same knife I’ve had for the last 17 years,” the butcher replied, “And I haven’t had to sharpen it even once. For, when I cut the meat, I allow the knife to find its own way through the flesh without effort or stress.

“And when I come to a tricky bit with lots of cartilage, I just slow down and allow the mystery to solve itself and in no time the meat falls right off the blade.”"

I believe that's Chuangtse's ese on wu wei, I think Vad's focusing on the poetry of the Tao Te Ching.

No need to be sorry, but you only heard the official Toyota corporate version of the story. Toyota had acceleration problems for many years, years before they started using CTS pedals. CTS is another smoke screen (after floor mats) used by Toyota to weasel out from the unpleasant situation.

This should be a good primer for you from http://www.safetyresearch.net/2010/01/26/stop-the-...

“This is a desperate move by a company desperate to control a situation that has already spiraled out of control,” says SRS president Sean E. Kane. “We know that Toyota sudden Unintended Acceleration is a multi-faceted problem across many model lines and models years. This move might buy them a brief distraction, but the problems aren’t going away even after a fix is in place for the vehicles included in this recent recall.”

Unintended acceleration is occurring across a number of Toyota makes, models and years and under varying circumstances. Based on Safety Research & Strategies’ review of complaints, owner interviews and vehicle inspections, there appears to be a multitude of root causes ranging from mechanical interface to unidentified electronic defects. Thus far, Toyota has only been willing to recall some vehicles for mechanical defects. Many vehicle models with high rates of unintended acceleration complaints, like the 2002 to 2006 Camry models are still not part of any recall. Regardless, all of these problems point back to the lack of appropriate failsafe designs – designs that ensure the driver can easily control the vehicle, when something does go wrong."

You can also study the history of Toyota's Sudden Unintended Acceleration here: http://www.safetyresearch.net/toyota-sudden-uninte...

Yeah, that parable is from Chuang-Tzu, not from Lao-Tzu's original text of Tao Te Ching. Some parts and interpretations by Chuang-Tzu, as I see it now, will be incorporated but at this point I don't have clear concept which ones and in what form.

I do like this particular one, it has at least two applications: one being about following the natural flow of things (trends?), and another about butcher being the speediest one on the village, ass he has been doing it for so long that he doesn't think where to cut - he just does it precisely and instantly by the force of habit. Efficiency as a product of action becoming second nature, no thinking in recognizable situation is required, and would even be harmful... there, trading application has written itself :)