Morning Call [7:37am ET] This morning our friend Ron Sen takes umbrage with disinformation spewing from the mouth of the Federal Reserve Bank chairman Ben Bernanke.
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2010/02/if-not-for-ben.html
In yesterday’s released statement (“Federal Reserve’s Exit Strategy”) on which Bernanke will testify before the Committee on Financial Services, US House of Representatives, the following statement is made:
These programs, which imposed no cost on the taxpayer, were a critical part of the government's efforts to stabilize the financial system and restart the flow of credit.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20100210a.htm...
Ron Sen points out the real cost in terms of inflation as well as the negative impact zero interest rates being charged to banks have had on retiree incomes.
In our world, i.e., the real world, there is no such thing as “zero cost”.
In fact, Ron refers to the excellent work of John Williams (http://shadowstats.com).
Maybe we need to have Rep. Ron Paul print up bumper stickers that read, “Get Real Bernanke”?
Also in Ron Sen’s blog today, he comments that the Greece financial calamity [no money in the government treasury to pay their bills come March] will not be resolved by the European Union, but by the United States. Coming soon to Washington, “My Big Fat Greek Wedding”. I can just picture Barney Frank waving his handkerchief as he leads the Kalamatianós around the House floor.
OMG. $2000 gold here we come.
Interestingly, though, this morning the German, French and Italian bank stocks were down while the Greek bank stocks were up in their respective markets.
source: ADVFN.com
That divergence seems to be telling me that Greece will be remaining the problem of the EU – at least in the thinking up to the moment.
And, if you think about it, if Greece departs, there will likely be other departures, and that would create immense instability, not only in Europe but in capital markets around the world. That in itself should push Gold higher and the $USD down.
Time will tell, but we need to keep focused on this problem because it is much more serious than Dubai, as I see it.
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
This morning, we saw money flowing into the Greek banks and then we heard the EU make a statement that the financial crisis in Greece would be resolved. We took all that as further indication that central banks were heading into another round of quantitative easing despite their claims to be doing otherwise. That usually means that the $USD (-0.06%) falls, Crude Oil (+1.61%) rises, Gold (+2.19%) rises, and equity prices (S&P +0.97% and NASDAQ +1.38%) rise, which happened.
As active traders, we reject the mantra of passive investment. We want you to realize it is unacceptable to accept the risk to your capital of 100% long-only strategies. Those proponents like to shuffle fancy graphs of 10- or 20-year snapshots of asset growth over the last 100 years; but let’s face it, timing is always important. If and when your assets are cut in half due to a stock market rout or a real-estate implosion, your breakeven point is pushed out decades. So, why would you put yourself at such risk when there are active managers working to minimize downside exposure or you can learn to do this yourself?
Think of active trading as an insurance policy. We pay a small annual premium to protect ourselves and loved ones against catastrophic risk.
Have a great evening.
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Comments
EU agrees to help Greece
News Alert
from The Wall Street Journal
European Union President Herman Van Rompuy said an agreement has been reached on helping Greece amid its debt crisis. Mr. Rompuy said details of the deal would be released after leaders of all 27 EU states finish meeting Thursday.
Fears of a Greek government default have roiled equity, debt and currency markets for weeks, and EU diplomats say the gyrations in recent days have put pressure on leaders at the EU summit in Brussels to show they have the problems under control.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487033...
Let's see if that helps Silver (and Gold) today.
Citi 6 months and out
A while back there was a discussion of just walking on mortgage.
--------------
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Citigroup Inc. plans to let homeowners on the verge of foreclosure stay in their homes for six months -- if they turn over the deed to their property.
The policy is an attempt to deal with what lenders see as a growing phenomenon: borrowers who choose to default on their mortgages. Close to one in every three U.S. homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, according to Moody's Economy.com.
http://tiny.cc/zoEeS
AYE
had been showing up on my SP500 RSI scan sometime ago in accumulation zone, then a buy signal 4 days ago. I thought "A utility, how boring." Guess boring would have been just fine...
FD: No position.
DNB - Capitulation play/kangaroo tail reversal
7 day RSI is 10.28
Weekly kangaroo tail reversal from Nov 2008. Halfway on the tail measures 66.31. Bottom of tail is 64.
Feb max pain options expiration shows 80.
Upside is roughly 14 vs 2 downside. 3:1 or better gets me interested.
Buy limit extended hours 8AM to afterhours 66.31.
Do your own homework.
GL
Seems like job # are welcome
no matter how flawed the calculations are.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Greetings from the Fortress of Solitude.
ABB - Upgraded to Buy @ Deutsche Bank. PT = $22
EXC - PT Lowered from $53 to $51 @ Credit Suisse. Neutral
GSK - Upgraded to Neutral @ Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.
http://tinyurl.com/yzqcyuy
Re: EU agrees to help Greece
Gold has been relentlessly suppressed below the $1080 level in NY for the past few days. We shall see if any positive developments break the shackles. Generally, sustained break-outs above key resistance areas only occur in Asian trading.
Is this a novel way of approaching problems with unemployment
and compensation comparisons as we evolve into the 3rd world? Page 11 shows elimination of parts of the Bureau of Employment and Labor Statistics that do international comparisons.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2011/assets...
Re: EU agrees to help Greece
fireworks,
I agree that gold and silver are being suppressed for the moment. The trading for the past 4+ hours has been crazy. Every time it appears to be lifting, the price is hammered down. The euro shows no sign of lifting here either, and Silver is down more than Gold, so I think the pressure mitigates against a break-out. The problem, like happened Friday, is when the upside breakout does occur, the stocks seem to make their move in 30 minutes and then stop. This seems to be orchestrated by big capital pools than the market as a whole.
CS opines, “A correction, not a renewed bear market”
Here is their report, just posted:
• We think the period of consolidation may last another month: Tactical indicators are neutral and typically markets consolidate by 9% for 3 months around the first phase of monetary tightening (which this time is brought about by the PBOC and the end of QE). However, we believe that by mid-year, markets will be higher (our target remains 1220 on the S&P 500). Crucially, though, a clear-cut recovery in private sector credit growth (triggering a government bond crisis) or clear signs of China economically overheating would make us turn bearish.
• We think the five major concerns that have spooked the markets over the past few weeks are all overstated in the near term:
• Fears of a global sovereign credit crisis are overdone: US, Japan and German bond yields have fallen, as has gold (hardly the sign of a funding crisis). The problems in peripheral Europe are akin to those of California in the US: Severe deflation is required, but the problem is confined. A global bond funding crisis will not be seen, in our opinion, until private sector credit growth returns (probably in 2011)-government interest payments as a % of GDP are still low, at 1.3% of GDP in the US. The risk, in our view, is that the UK could end up with a minority government, which might bring forward a UK funding crisis.
• Worries about China tightening: We believe China is likely to grow at around 10% until there is major economic, as opposed to financial, overheating, which would be reflected in a sharp acceleration in wage growth and export price inflation.
• The end of QE: We think banks will replace central banks as the major buyers of bonds-and overall monetary conditions are still extremely loose.
• Obama-ing the banks: Even assuming regulation reduces banks profitability to pre-1990 levels, this would leave the fair value tangible book multiple at 1.1x. This implies only about 10% downside for Continental European banks and 15% downside for US banks. Meanwhile, bank lending conditions have loosened significantly.
• Worries about US employment momentum stalling: We think corporates have over-shed labor (hours worked are down 9% and GDP is down 2% from peak) and we believe non-farm payrolls will continue to improve.
• Our fundamental view remains that global GDP growth will surprise on the upside, EPS could grow by up to 30%, the major macro and credit variables are back to where they were when the S&P 500 was at 1240, equities offer relative value (with an ERP of 5.5% on consensus earnings) as well as allowing investors to hedge against their main fears in the market at the moment (sovereign credit risk and inflation).
• We would buy relatively safe companies (CDS below government, yield above government: Vodafone, BAT, Chevron, Kimberly-Clark) and quality growth (Imperial, Danone, Apple, Gilead) and avoid high financial leverage companies (ACS, Fraport, Sears, Office Depot).
DOW puts
Bought DOW Feb $29 Puts at $1.80 average in the past 15 minutes. I ain't buying a bounce due to Greece bailout. I think the market moves on to focus on Spain / Portugal, adding more pressure to the market.
Cara 100 Update (Final)
ATVI - estimates cut at Morgan Stanley. ATVI estimates were reduced through 2011. Company offered lower guidance. Overweight rating.
HYG put
Bought HYG June $81 put.
Ring of Fire
Hi Bill,
A big announcement is pending re moving forward with development. Industry, Ontario government, and aboriginal leaders have been in a huddle for the past several weeks and there has been a lot of disinformation and false negatives in the media ( e.g. Noront supply flights being blocked from landing on their winter ice strip on a lake by a few native protestors ). Cliff's recent buyout of Freewest, and their boast that there would only be one mine at the ROF went hard on NOT market price. However, I'm still a believer and have I have added to my position in recent days. NOT has brought on board some very high profile native leaders and are very progressive in their desire to involve the locals. It is fully expected that sometime before or during PDAC there will be positive news that will boost NOT substantially. As always, DYODD!
Re: HYG put
RSI 7 day 18.83. Feb max pain 88, Mar 87
DZK
stopped out for lunch money.
Update: shoulda left the sell stop at the bottom of the tail alone. Big boys were gunning stops, buy and sell, near the open.
Cara 100 News & Views (QCOM)
Analyst report from Zack's:
We reaffirm our Underperform recommendation for
Qualcomm following its first quarter of fiscal 2010
financial results. Although first quarter results broadly
meet the Zacks Consensus Estimates, the company
reduced its previous guidance for full fiscal 2010.
Management cited increasing competition, slower
recovery of high-end mobile phones in the developed
markets, particularly in Europe and Japan; together
with relative strength of the low-end mobile phones in
the emerging markets are the primary reasons for this
disappointing outlook. Average revenue per MSM
chipset declined as a result of lower ASP of 3G mobile
phones. We expect this trend to continue in 2010
leaving little room for Qualcomm s top-line recovery.
REASONS TO SELL
Global economic recession may generate earnings fluctuations in future reporting quarters.
Qualcomm now expects to ship between 88 million 92 million MSM chipsets during the second quarter of fiscal 2010 which is 2.2% below its mid-point compared to the previous quarter.
Qualcomm projected that its second quarter fiscal 2010 revenue will be within the range of $2.40 billion - $2.60 billion. At its mid-point, this is 6.4% below compared to the previous quarter.
For full fiscal 2010, management reduced its previous revenue guidance of $10.5 billion - $11.3 billion to a new range of $10.4 billion - $11 billion.
In the first quarter 2010, average revenue per MSM chipset decline significantly by 6% compared to the previous quarter. This was primarily due to lower average selling price (ASP) for high-end 3G CDMA smartphones as well as unfavorable product mix towards low-end mobile handsets. The company now expects that ASP of CDMA 3G smartphones may declined to $184 in 2010 from $198
in 2009. This will in turn result in lower revenue for Qualcomm.
--------
Presented for your information only. This is not my advice to buy or sell any equity.
BH
Re: DOW puts
Market actually looks stronger than I thought it would...
Re: EU agrees to help Greece
Hi Bill, I agree completely about your observation on precious metal stocks selling off in short order. When watching market depths closely, one can see the walls of selling being erected just as demand begins to ramp up. I have noticed this on several stocks over an extended period. Some have speculated that it is computer algorithms programmed to ramp up the selling activity regardless of the buying pressure. As one can see with most gold and silver stocks, the computers have performed magnificently at capping any rallies in the sector.
NLS
Looks solid...no news out today.
Re: EU agrees to help Greece
Bill, I'm curious what you call suppression in gold & silver. Myself, I have been surprised that gold and particularly the miners have done as well as they have, given the pretty good sized move up in the buck (and the even bigger move down in the euro). I mean, euro down 1.41 (1%) and gold is up $6? Holders of gold should be pretty happy with that performance, I'm thinking. Maybe all those rich Greeks are trading their euros for gold bars.
Look at oil during that same period. Not a happy chart.
Then again, I haven't been as focused on gold today, so maybe I'm not seeing the details you are.
EU Playing Dangerous Game of Chicken
I heard the news today that there is no news and the first thing that came to my mind is the EU is playing a dangerous game of chicken with the market. They're saying Greece has not asked for money and that there is no immediate problem. The credit markets say otherwise.
Strange move by the EU...
My goodness... the Dow Wizard has the
steam billows at full blast... watch out Dorthy... he may be up to no good.
Financials will be the tell...
if this rally is sustainable today and tomorrow. If you see financials breakout, then we are going up to triple digits on dow in my humble opinion.
if they cant, then we prob close in a range.
No way I am holding anything into this long weekend. I am totally ok with missing a huge rally tue, in return of missing a crushing gap down.
Bring back the Homestead Act...
make it applicable to the most distressed properties, in a modified form... give em' a place to stay if they fix the properties up... apply time and material to future purchase at foreclosed price....
Re: EU agrees to help Greece
Since the first week of January PM miners have (in my opinion) crashed relative to the price of gold. The GDX/GLD ratio (miners/gold) was 0.4475 on 1/8/2010. By 1/29/2010 that ratio had crashed down to 0.3854 which was the lowest point since early-May09. I believe this was merely the first major post-crisis correction. The correction was swift and severe - enough to take out lots of stops and well-timed to coincide with a general market pullback (making it easier to shake shares loose).
While daily currency fluctuations do tend to influence POM/POG/POS in the short-term, I think we are in an environment where governments will be having to put out fires like the Greece situation for years to come. One countries eases a bit and other countries are given some breathing room to do the same -a feedback loop of sorts. (Remember the mid-90s when OPEC countries were cheating each other by producing oil over their quotas, bringing gas price sub-80 cents in the US? Same idea this time except sovereign nations are playing the same game of chicken with currencies!) Thus, I think we are witnessing the traditional (last few years) gold/currency relationships breaking down in real-time.
I have attached the file I've been keeping that looks at the GDX/GLD ratio for the longer term.
Look at the data since beginning of Jan:
Current GDX/GLD 200 DMA = 0.4317
DATE GDX GLD Ratio
02/11/2010 43.85 107 0.4098 Breakout?
02/10/2010 42.35 105.12 0.4029
02/09/2010 42.56 105.44 0.4036
02/08/2010 40.78 104.04 0.3920 Higher Low
02/05/2010 42.41 104.68 0.4051
02/04/2010 40.27 104.41 0.3857 Double Bottom
02/03/2010 42.57 108.7 0.3916
02/02/2010 43 109.13 0.3940
02/01/2010 42.94 108.35 0.3963
01/29/2010 40.72 105.65 0.3854 Bottom
01/28/2010 42.17 106.45 0.3961
01/27/2010 42.77 106.53 0.4015
01/26/2010 43.13 107.56 0.4010
01/25/2010 43.2 107.5 0.4019
01/22/2010 43.79 107.18 0.4086
01/21/2010 43.75 107.37 0.4075
01/20/2010 44.91 108.56 0.4137
01/19/2010 47.69 111.52 0.4276
01/15/2010 47.42 110.86 0.4277
01/14/2010 48.6 112.03 0.4338
01/13/2010 48.86 111.54 0.4380
01/12/2010 48.35 110.49 0.4376
01/11/2010 50.17 112.85 0.4446
01/08/2010 49.84 111.37 0.4475
01/07/2010 49.1 110.82 0.4431
01/06/2010 49.34 111.51 0.4425
01/05/2010 48.17 109.7 0.4391
01/04/2010 47.71 109.8 0.4345
Pop in to give a heads up
For those of you who follow the Elliot Wave and the DeMark trading system then this is the latest. It looks like this rally from this morning is the final run up of a corrective wave 2 before a possible hard and fast drop. The DeMarkian D Wave folks have us in a rally until 2:30 today with the SPX hitting a min of 1076.91 and then we are to have a sell off. Some other factors you can throw in is the small change in the McClellan Oscillator from yesterday, which has been a good indicator of a big price move and also McHugh has one of his noted Phi Turn Dates on the 17th which can takes place a +/- days from the schedule date.
Stay alert.
Re: Pop in to give a heads up
interesting call...i think i agree only because I think the EU is playing a very dangerous game of chicken with the Greece situation.
Foreclosures
One of my friends bought his house in 2007 and its down about 25-30% since then. Since that time he had a 25% pay cut and his rate on his 2 mortgages were adjustable. He hasn't paid on his second in almost a year now and he hasn't even gotten one notice from the lender. He is now considering walking away from his house because he is so far underwater and he can't rent it out for enough to cover his mortgage. He figures his credit is so screwed up already that foreclosing won't really do much worse and he doesn't plan on buying a house again any time soon.
I would have to imagine that his situation is not that far off many others and the news about a drop in foreclosures has nothing to do with the economy getting better but rather the lenders just turning their cheek to the problem. Why not when they don't have to mark those loans to the market value?
Re: Pop in to give a heads up
Points for (a) a timely post, and (b) posting an exact target and time.
Re: Pop in to give a heads up
Forgot to add this... on the SPX it must print more than 1076.91 and it must close a 30 minute bar at that price or higher. This is based on the DeMarkain 13 bar count which I have to admit I am still trying to learn. Also I think there is a good chance they would hold any sell off till Friday [early morning or late afternoon]. Just my 2 cents and a heads up only. As everyone here knows the market will do what it pleases.
Re: Pop in to give a heads up
I'd have to imagine all governments will try their darndest to keep the markets up so I'm not outruling anything...
Re: Foreclosures
Teamonfuego, try this on for size. FDIC encouraging short sales then covering 80-95 percent of the loss, AT FACE VALUE. Since bank purchases are at less then face value, the banks can make tons of $$$$ off the deal. Read it and listen. Posted 2/10.
I really hope this is not true. It honestly made me sick last night.
http://tinyurl.com/ygtpjvw
Kalamatiano?
I think maybe the Prime Minister will be dancing a very Bad Zembekiko--things are that bad right now--I live in Greece by virtue of marriage so I know.
Gus.
Re: EU agrees to help Greece
davefairtex,
I may have used the word "suppression" but I thought I was explicit in my remark: "fireworks, I agree that gold and silver are being suppressed for the moment. The trading for the past 4+ hours has been crazy. Every time it appears to be lifting, the price is hammered down."
At 9:25am ET, in my blog comment, I was doing micro-surgery.
I had noted that the EU had assured Greece 'no problem mon!!!', which ought to have zipped Gold and Silver except that the price was being kept in check and the Euro was being beaten down -- until the eventual moonshot at 11am ET where Gold ran in an hour from 1077 to 1095, and Silver from 15.17 to 15.65.
As I wrote earlier; blink and you missed it. Why?
I am a complete cynic over these matters. With respect to what happened this morning, I believe that certain parties clearly knew in advance what the EU was going to announce and what that might mean for precious metals, so some of them bought (illegal insider trading) and it looked like there would be bad optics of front-running, so the ECB trading desk hammered precious metals back down. For a couple hours up to the announcement and for a bit afterward, the trading was ragged, but controlled, and then it popped sharply.
Only some traders captured that move. I believe it was the ones who knew when the slingshot would be released. I would believe otherwise but the pre-announcement ragged action followed by trading against common sense and then by the moonshot tells me otherwise. What would have been normal is that nobody knew in advance of the announcement, trading was continuing in a tight range, then the announcement, followed quickly by rising prices, aided gradually by shorts that were being closed. When something doesn't make sense to me, I believe the worst. I have been around too long to believe in market integrity.
There are too many people out there who know their bread is buttered by sticking close to finance ministers and central bankers, and they take every advantage they can. One of the reasons why we need governments to get out of our markets is stop this front-running problem.
As to the EU decision regarding Greece, I think it was made close to the beginning of the month, right before the latest meetings in Europe. Precious metals have been running since then. Whether its the Europeans or the Americans bailing out Greece (and others to follow) doesn't much matter in the long run. It's what the World Gold Council white paper (I posted here a few days ago) reported: the global money supply is linked to the price of gold. These countries are getting bailed out and that is being done by raising debt against no offset in assets, so precious metals will have to lift -- in the long run.
Re: Pop in to give a heads up
Certainly not an attempt to shoot the messenger, but I am seeing a lot of doomsday-ish predictions out there including severe breakdowns/declines in the near-term. My problem with buying this type of scenario is that unlike the first trip down in Q4 08, when everyone was loaded with equities, this time I feel there are still many largely in cash or cash equivalents and HOPING the market crashes again so they can get back in. In other words, I feel the majority has a lot more to lose if this market continues to grind up slowly.
Re: Pop in to give a heads up
Nice point re maximum frustration.
Re: Pop in to give a heads up
BillySundance,
This messenger posted the Credit Suisse outlook today as a balance to people's thinking about a crash. What I may or may not think is possibly different to what others may or may not think. What is most important to me is that everybody learn to think for themselves, and I look forward to any opinion that is clearly stated like yours here.
Re: NLS
Nice call on that one TOF. Followed you in @ 2.30. Should run into a little resistance soon in the next 0.10 or so so I decided not to get greedy and be happy with 15% gain in 5 days on the trade. Like the story though so will likely try to reaccumulate on a pullback. Thanks for sharing.
KC
Re: Pop in to give a heads up
Billy - I hear you man. It's a tough call. On one side I agree with what you're saying because I think a lot of people are being bearish and on the other side I hear/read traders saying you should definitely be buying a dip down to 1020 to 1040. If we do get there and people buy I'm willing to bet that the market will go down further only because it would frustrate the majority.
And yet my long term buy/sell signal (if market moves at least 3% above the 200 DMA you buy and vice versa) says to stay long.
Re: Foreclosures
Thanks Otis.
I watched this, and it did make me ill.
Note, George (Betaljuzx) Soros is part of this, he who controls the Dems in Wash.
JPM If-Then scenario setting up. good defined opportunity.
http://chart.ly/saf3bx
If this backtest on the breakout holds, JPM will likely recapture $40. if not, then we revisit the breakout point.
as always, not advice. just what i am watching.
Re: NLS
KC - I'm probably being greedy but I'm staying long in it. I have a pretty big position in it, relative to my account sizes, but my targets are in the $5 to $7 range right now (it could change depending on future earnings reports)...
Bev
I enjoy your comments - it looks like you might have called this one today. I see bizarre selling of the CHF against everything, right along with the Euro. Do the Swiss have the same problem loans scattered all over Greece and southern Europe, or is the Swiss National Bank taking advantage to sell down the CHF. The selling is counter intuitive. While the Swiss have made loans denominated in CHF in E. Europe, they themselves owe no one. Their currency would be a refuge during a euro mini crash. Instead it is being sold hard even against the GBP. The call by CS, the weekend coven in Australia - was the entire point of the meeting of G-7 bankers just a set up for today in the market? They do not have a plan at all except to print and buy it appears.
Re: NLS
Good luck with the trade. My thing is I always sell too soon but manage to hang on to my losers because I hate to admit I made a mistake. This blog has helped me with that problem quite a bit...
XLF
see how it closes but it appears to formed a 2nd kangaroo tail reversal in 5 days...meaning the bears have tried twice to take it down but the bulls have won.
FD: long FAS
LBJ close trade/Kangaroo tail
in 2/5 @ 23.04.
out 2/11 @ 27.09.
17.5% gain. Nuff for me. Divergences showing up on hourly chart.
Re: Pop in to give a heads up
I think the long-term health of the large financial institutions is the large 'kicker' here. For better or worse, will the policies that we have put in place prevent a relapse event (second delveraging/unwinding)?
From my perspective, the 'plan' is to keep the happy medium going long enough for large financial institutions to bleed smaller institutions dry over a prolonged period of time and consolidate or acquire the scraps. Unfortunately, this may actually work as the horrendous balance sheets of BAC/Citi/Wells/etc are offset by increased market share taken from small/regional banking outfits. It all stinks for the consumer, thats for sure.
Re: JPM If-Then scenario setting up. good defined opportunity.
NYU
what's your upside target vs downside risk?
Re: JPM If-Then scenario setting up. good defined opportunity.
i am out at 38.85. I dont set upside targets. I get out when the signals tell me to.
EDIT: there is a psychological reason i do this. I know myself. and if i setup upside, i may overstay my welcome hoping. I guess you can say, i trade against myself.
Re: Pop in to give a heads up
Update on earlier post
~~~~~
This is by trader who uses DeMarkain method and has been correct a lot lately on his D-wave calls
Wallfly [Moderator]
OK, we got the closing print we need on D-Wave. According to that metric C is confirmed in progress and the SPX is now free to head south at anytime. As I look at it, however, it may dawdle and even climb for another hour and even into the close so as to complete a sell 9 set-up. FYI
This is from EW Trends & Charts blog. He has been really good with his Elliot Wave counts lately.
", I added a micro count to the chart now that my confidence has improved enough to make this the most likely count. I really like the symmetry to the count. I am still very worried about breaking through the channel line, but am biting my tongue because of the count and the fact that breadth was only 2.35:1 advancers with low volume that has been declining all morning. I do not see much bullishness under these circumstances."
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3287600&cmd=show[s174911668]&disp=P
Again folks just thought I would bring it to your attention. Just what others are seeing and trading from.
Re: Pop in to give a heads up
sure looks like we're setting up for a gap up open tomorrow...
Re: JPM If-Then scenario setting up. good defined opportunity.
It's setting up nicely!
http://chart.ly/g4pz6y
I've been adding since yest.
SWM capitulation trade
FD: No position
Feb/Mar opts max pain 75
10 day ATR 5.5, risk 1.5 * 10 day ATR or about 8 bucks.
Upside is roughly 27 vs 8 downside, better than 3:1.
RSI 7 day is under 10, qualifying it as a capitulation trade.
Waiting till 3 PM price, then putting a buy stop at 3pm price plus 5% * 10 day ATR (or .27 cents above 3PM price). See if the big boys take it home.
Keep in mind the 10 day ATR of $5.5, meaning the stock has moved in $5.5 range DAILY on average for past 10 days so the position size is small, given the stock's volatility.
Update: 3pm closing price 47.75 + .27 = 48.02
Iran atom bomb seen attainable despite snags-study
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61A42O20100211
VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran is on course to produce enough highly enriched uranium to make nuclear weapons despite technical problems, a new study says.
World
But increased mechanical difficulties with centrifuges mean it is unlikely to be able to make enough lower-grade fuel for civilian nuclear power plants for a long time, if ever, the study by a think-tank tracking nuclear proliferation says.
Its report came out as Iran adjusted some centrifuges to enrich uranium to a higher grade from that needed to generate electricity, stoking Western concern over its intentions.
Citing U.N. inspection and intelligence findings, the report said Iran's main Natanz enrichment plant was dogged by centrifuge breakdowns and maintenance outages, with the machines refining uranium at only about half their nominal capacity.
It noted a 20 percent fall in numbers of operating machines in the year to last November, after a headlong expansion pursued for political purposes in a stand-off with world powers trying to curb Iran's programme and throw it open to U.N. scrutiny.
A senior diplomat close to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on Thursday there had been "no big changes" in active centrifuge capacity since November, suggesting technical woes were still hindering growth.
"Iran's problems in its centrifuge programme are greater than expected a year ago," said the report by David Albright and Christina Walrond of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), based in Washington.
"Iran is unlikely to deploy enough gas centrifuges to make enriched uranium for commercial nuclear power reactors (Iran's stated nuclear goal) for a long time, if ever, particularly if (U.N.) sanctions remain in force," the report said.
ATOM BOMB CAPACITY IN REACH
"As such, one of the most striking lessons of reviewing Iran's accomplishments at Natanz is just how unachievable a commercial enrichment programme remains, while how little is required to create a nuclear weapons capability.
"While Iran may take longer than expected to make sufficient weapons-grade uranium, few believe it will fail in that effort."
The U.S. intelligence community has estimated Iran will not be technically capable of weaponizing enrichment before 2013.
Iran denies having mechanical problems at Natanz. It says it is proceeding with enrichment according to plan and the goal of enriching uranium to 20 percent purity is to replenish the fuel reserve of a Tehran reactor that makes medical isotopes.
But more than half of its roughly 8,500 installed centrifuges were idle as of late last year -- an update will come in a fresh IAEA report due next week -- and ISIS said the plant suffered "a daily attrition of centrifuges from breakage."
But, ISIS said, Iran had established enough capacity to make fissile material for one atom bomb within six months if it drew from its current stock of low-enriched (3.5 percent) enriched uranium (LEU), estimated to be close to two tonnes.
Iran's LEU stockpile is subject to IAEA surveillance to deter diversions of the material for military purposes.
However, "given Iran's announced plans to build 10 more enrichment plants without notifying the IAEA about their location or status until six months before it introduces nuclear material, Iran's capability to make weapons-grade uranium either in a secret parallel programme or in a 'breakout' is likely to grow with time," the ISIS report said.
For its ostensible civilian energy purpose, Natanz could only be classified as a development facility, not a production plant, since Iran was still struggling to master the operation of many thousands of centrifuges in unison, ISIS said.
It noted that Iran's centrifuges were a 30-year-old vintage, sanctions made it hard for Iran to import top-quality components and domestically-made substitutes were probably inferior.
Another possible explanation for problems, ISIS said, was that Western secret services had apparently slipped defective hardware into the nuclear black market plied by Tehran.
(Editing by Charles Dick)
jpm bounced right off 38.2 fib retrace
http://chart.ly/3c9m5m
Re: SWM capitulation trade
Wow - I don't have time to read up on SWM, but that long-term chart is absolutely bizarre looking!
Re: Iran atom bomb seen attainable despite snags-study
im continually fascinated by the constant speculation about Iran's nuclear program. one study says they are decades away, another says its imminent.
all intended to give the impression iran is willing and wanting to use it against isreal and the west.
these ideas are baseless speculation, much the same way people thought the taliban would take over pakistan and seize their nuclear stockpile.
who cares what iran does, they are not as a nation against the US or anyone else, they are run by a group of aging religious zealots and the youth of the nation are starting to open the nation up along the same lines as any other democracy.
its Feb 11th, and still nothing happened by Iran despite people everyone wondering what it meant by more baseless rumours about their vow to strike the west on this day.
yawn, another calamity postponed,
tell me again about how the COMEX is about to default, the taliban get nukes, the collapse of the US dollar and food shortages....
how often do we give credit to these nightmare scenario's that never come true?
Re: SWM capitulation trade
ain't it tho'
Re: Iran atom bomb seen attainable despite snags-study
Agree.
What everyone knows isn't worth knowing. That has made me more money than about anything except the RSI method and the RSI method works because people cling to the "bad" news and anything half good creates a short covering rally and the bulls to chase.
What you see doesn't kill you, it's what you don't see.
Re: SWM capitulation trade
Schweitzer Mauduit (SWM:$45.9293,$-24.3007,-34.60%) is recently down $20.24 to $49.99 after reporting Q4 EPS and conservative 2010 guidance. SWM is a specialty paper manufacturer. March option implied volatility is at 66; June is at 53; above its 20-week average of 27 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
BSI87, is this a kangaroo tail?
Re: SWM capitulation trade
there was a 15 minute kangaroo tail reversal about 11 AM. I was hoping that SWM would start reversing at 3PM (which it didn't). I started looking for the next support/reversal area. Long and short of it, I'm long at 45.39 and in the green albeit a small position and only slightly green but for a stock down 35%, it's a decent entry point.
Re: SWM capitulation trade
no, SWM is first a capitulation trade where the RSI 7 day is below 10.
It did show a kangaroo tail on the 15 min chart.
The best chart right now IMO is the XLF chart. Go to stockcharts.com, put in "XLF" for the daily chart, make the range monthly and the chart is landscape, type is candlestick. XLF has bounced TWICE.
Re: Iran atom bomb seen attainable despite snags-study
regardless of the speculative nature of Iran's activities, wheels have been set in motion. Uncle Sam has permitted the purchase of ballistic missile systems amongst its Gulf partners, in exchange some risk to the United States is disseminated to the various Arabian actors. It's clear that America does not want to make the first move, neither does Iran. Hopefully Israel holds the line as well. As a market moving disaster in the making this is one black swan I don't think too much of.
AIG kangaroo tail reversal on upside
guess that was too much.
Putting in buy limit @ 21.98 which was last Friday's midpoint between close and LOD.
Re: SWM capitulation trade
Thanks, I'll have a look. You seem to do well off these types of plays. T3D
Go Bev
Broke Lennar Homes gets $243M loan at 0% by broke FDIC
HOW?
Its broke institutions giving our tax money to broken companies. What the heck!
ugh. I want to punch the wall!
http://bit.ly/btBJBd
JPM Bull Flag?
so far so good.
http://chart.ly/vxfzdz
DF - capitulation trade coming up
meant to put this trade during the day but didn't get it done.
Got long @ 14.39 but shoulda looked at the kangaroo tail (weekly). 13.85 is the better entry. See how the RSI model looks in the AM. RSI 7 day is 11.06.
FD: long
Do your homework.
Big Explosion on 6th Avenue and 20th Streets.
Big Explosion on 6th Avenue and 20th Streets.
http://bit.ly/ctOGYM
This is right by my office! no one was hurt. No foul play expected. Just another day in NYC.
Re: Broke Lennar Homes gets $243M loan at 0% by broke FDIC
Actually Lennar is kicking in $243 mil and where do you think they got that money? Yep, tax refunds. The corruption continues. I've got four words to for Lennar. Tall tree, short rope!
GOLD
Why Gold Price Will Plunge To $800 Per Ounce
By CommodityOnline | 11 February 2010
LONDON (Commodity Online): In the last few months, we have been reading predictions and forecasts from bullion analysts who insisted and argued that gold price is booming to touch $2,000, $3,000, $5,000, $10,000 per ounce in the coming years. These forecasts have caught people's attention who have been pouring money into gold and other precious metals all these months. But after the big surge of gold price to $1,227 per ounce some two months back, the yellow metal has been climbing down the ladder of speculation.
Despite speculators going on the 'boom-in-gold-price predictions', the yellow metal price has been sinking in the last two months. "If the gold price fall continues this way, it is certain to touch down to $1,000 per ounce or below this level in the next one month," says bullion analyst Mark Robinson. Robinson, who is not a great bull on gold, says even if gold price falls to $900 or $800 per ounce, people should not complain. "For those who have invested in gold some years back, even $900 or $800 per ounce is a great price tag. So, there is no room for complaints even if gold price falls to realistic levels," he said.
Robinson, a keen bullion watcher focusing on China, says that the Chinese government wants gold price to plunge to $800 per ounce level. "China's biggest ambition these days is to build up gold reserves. For this, the best thing that China wants is a big fall in gold price so that it can buy more gold from IMF, gold miners and from the physical bullion market," argues Robinson. It is not just Robinson who is a bear in gold price forecast. On Monday, a senior analyst with Citigroup came out with purely bearish prediction on gold. Citigroup bullion analyst Alan Heap said that gold prices could sink to $820 an ounce by 2014.
Here is that interesting article that TheStreet.com published on the bearish prediction on gold:
"NEW YORK (TheStreet)— gold prices could sink to $820 an ounce by 2014, in the absence of inflation or strong demand from China, says a Citigroup analyst. Alan Heap, an analyst at Citi Investment Research, adds a bearish voice to a crowded debate over where the precious metal is headed. Billionaire investor James Rogers and perma-bear David Tice say gold will hit $2,500. James Turk , Author of GoldMoney, predicts $8,000, while author Mike Maloney is betting on $15,000.
Continued at URL: http://normxxx.blogspot.com/2010/02/why-gold-price...
Stock Market Trading For The Novice
3 Strategies For Outsmarting The Market
By Pat Regnier, Money Magazine | 22 December 2009
As you try to figure out how to put your money to work in a market that veers from depression to mania, you're confronted with two opposing facts that lead to opposing investing strategies.
Fact No. 1: Outwitting the market is tough.
There's a good chance you've learned this the hard way. Remember when you were a tech-stock genius, circa 1999? Or how you didn't really gain confidence in the bull market that started in 2002 until about 2005, only to be really confident just in time for the market's top in 2007?
If experience hasn't schooled you, the numbers can: Over the past 15 years, about 60% of the mutual funds that invest in blue-chip stocks failed to beat the S&P 500 index, the frequently cited proxy for "the market". Managers of bond and foreign-stock funds also struggle to beat benchmarks. Even during the recent bear market, the sort of moment when pros are supposed to prove their worth by sidestepping the weakest investments, the indexes trumped most managers, data from Standard & Poor's show.
Consider what happened to Bill Miller, the famed investor who beat the S&P 500 for 15 straight years: He walked his Legg Mason Value Trust fund right into the propellers of the financial crisis by betting on AIG and Freddie Mac. The obvious conclusion: Stock picking, whether you do it yourself or pay a pro to do it for you, is a mug's game. You're better off buying and holding a cheap, diversified, and consistent index fund, which passively invests in the stocks listed on a broad market benchmark.
Fact No. 2: At times the market can act incredibly stupid.
If you own, say, the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund, you can take comfort in knowing that it performed relatively well in a disastrous 2008. But surely the more salient fact is that it lost 37% of your money that year and has so far earned back just 40% of that loss. Twice in less than a decade, in fact, investors who did the smart thing and "owned the market" have seen huge chunks of their wealth destroyed by bursting asset bubbles, and it's not as if there were no warnings. Dotcom 'excesses' were a punch line long before tech flamed out. And the media were churning out headlines about a 'real estate bubble' in 2005.
The obvious conclusion: Passive investing— whether through indexing or a buy-and-hold strategy with other kinds of funds— is for suckers. You need a strategy that shields you from the consequences of 'irrational exuberance'. There's just one problem: fact No. 1. Let's revisit the case for passive investing. It's still very strong. But two increasingly popular ideas that suggest a more active/passive approach deserve a closer look: The first is that traditional index funds have a design flaw that leaves you vulnerable to bubbles, so maybe it's time to employ a better mousetrap.
The second is that there are simple, objective measures that can tell you when stocks as a class of assets are simply too risky. After considering those claims, we'll spell out three strategies for navigating a market that sometimes loses its mind— without your losing your own trying to second-guess it.
Why Markets Are Efficient— Except When They're Not
MORE at URL: http://normxxx.blogspot.com/2010/02/3-strategies-f...
Re: Stock Market Trading For The Novice
I think the advice is well-intended, and for the talented and/or perceptive novice who is able to actually understand and incorporate the advice of others, it's a pretty good read.
The other 80%? It would be like sending an 18-year-old to Tijuana with advice about safe sex. During the bull market of 1982-2000, it would have been OK- nothing penicillin couldn't cure. Now we have STDs (I mean leveraged ETFs) up the wazoo, and sowing wild oats can lead to irreversible consequences.
Iran protest videos smuggled onto Youtube
http://bit.ly/aBMhF8.
Official Youtube blog. but "Viewer Discretion Is Advised"
Re: Iran protest videos smuggled onto Youtube
Is a Tea Party just foreplay for Protest?
Mortgage rates to go up in India
http://tinyurl.com/ydaazu7
Angela Merkel dashes Greek hopes of rescue bid
"Despite a show of Franco-German unity on the crisis and the first statement from EU leaders pledging to safeguard the currency's stability, hopes on the markets of a German-led rescue plan to shore up Greece's critical public finances were dashed by Merkel, who repeatedly emphasised that Athens would need to put its own house in order and brushed aside all questions of financial support.
"Germany is stepping totally on the brakes on financial assistance," said a senior EU diplomat. "On legal grounds, on constitutional grounds and on principle." Another senior diplomat said of the Germans: "They're not waving their chequebooks."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/2010/feb/11/...
I guess more fireworks to come... Lets watch this play to the end...it's not OVER and few more to come..
Why do THEY want you to look at Greece?
Because THEY don't want you to be looking somewhere else.
Galilee maybe.
Re: Angela Merkel dashes Greek hopes of rescue bid
We ( the US ) have the printing press... Europe doesn't... I would wager even money the US comes to the rescue.... through the major players ( ie: banks )... would love to be a fly on the wall this weekend in NY..
Money printing presses and union demands
I used to think that the US federal government had the only major printing press…. but now I believe any entity that can issue bonds has a printing press also. So the individual US States, counties and cities all have a way to print money….
So that is beginning to effect my thinking on how the economy will play out.
This couple with my realization that private union demands were able to kill single companies or even industries ….but that public union demands are killing entire cities and states make for a calamity soon.
PBS Video Story on Goldman
http://bit.ly/94HEBY
Part 1
"Unraveling the Profit Puzzle at Goldman Sachs"
SUMMARY
As part of his continuing series of reports making sense of business and the economy, Paul Solman examines the inner workings of investment powerhouse Goldman Sachs and how it makes money.
Not sure when part 2 is.
Re: Money printing presses and union demands
Thorn in the side for years and years to come... Pension Plans.
Paper?
I used to think that the US federal government had the only major printing press….
...Clinton & Co. traded the N. Koreans for the plates for our 100 dollar bills a long time ago.
Re: Angela Merkel dashes Greek hopes of rescue bid
The German government will not make the same mistake I hope. After the Wall fell, they flooded East Germany with so much money that most eventually went down a rat hole. I understand the politics of the era but the D-Mark transfers were laughable. East German banks had literaly billions in cash but they had no idea what to do with it. A very successful car dealer friend in Manheim went to Leipzig to see if there were opportunities to open a new car store. To his amazement, he found pseudo banks with vaults full of cash but no idea what to do. In the pub, a jigger of whisky was 50 phenigs but a glass of water was a Mark. The reason he was told was that the water was bigger! Chalk it up to 45 years of Soviet influence.
Sorry but the 'Med' countries don't get it. They should have never been in the EU to begin with. Maybe Angie will backhand some debt guarantees for a few years but my guess is that she will hang them out to dry eventually. It would be a good object lesson for German unions!
USD flight to safety
Bill,
My thinking is that with calamity will come a flight TO the USD.
Sure the US is doomed, but doomed less than many others.
Also, my theory is that things that really matter, like food and water, will go up in price, while the swamp being drained (like the FX swaps), will result in deflation of pretty much all asset classes, including PM.
Got plenty of physical gold though....that's the only buy and hold I do for foreseeable future.
Re: USD flight to safety
Until you can drink gold,
purchase irrigated farm land.
BDI
Baltic Dry Index continues to drop. This was mentioned by many pundits when the markets were rising...now that the index is falling I don't hear/read many people mentioning it.
Re: USD flight to safety
Looking into that also....prices will be cheaper.
If HBB doesnt steal all your cash....
BECAUSE THEY CAN
ALOHA !!
According to the US Treasury statements we are approaching $20TRIL USD in total US Debt combining both marketable and non-marketable debt issuances over a period of just over 4 months into FY 2010. Also add another $3.9TRIL in actual outlays(spending) over the past four months of FY2010. How is that "deflationary"? It isn't ... Details are details and as a former public works contractor I can tell you with certainty that it is the "unseen" details that kill you every time. I could scan a set of plans and specs for hours and still miss details, luckily they were never profit killers. Besides you always put plenty of cushion in knowing you will miss something.
As I have been reporting every week it is the debt and mainly the off-balance sheet debt that is "unseen" and virtually off the radar of media ever since David Walker left the GAO. There are consequences to accumulating debt without adequate revenues to even meet the "minimum due". I have been showing that tax revenues are woefully inadequate when stacked against total US Debt combined with unlimited spending. Such leverage is now running at 48 to 1, which are toxic derivative levels.
This link to Zero Hedge has a good behavioral analysis of the US FED and its monetary policy as well as the US Congress and its policies of unrivaled debt accumulation. What we have is a currency backed by the human condition, meaning if you hand a politician a blank check he will spend it and more and it does not matter if the politician resides in DC, your State capital or in your city government. Behavioral or whatever the label it boils down to good old Greek HUBRIS, for which the legal penalty was death in the Greece of old. Of course nowadays HUBRIS is a requirement in order to attend Yale or Harvard or Princeton. In fact I believe many people suffer from the same behavioral delusions that the US FED and US CONGRESS suffer from, mainly just because it has never been seen in America, it will never happen. Yet I try to point out that it has happened before in America. America has defaulted on its monetary system in the past, twice in fact. This is why I say that Americans suffer from monetary Stockholm Syndrome.
LINK: http://tinyurl.com/ybjpz4b
This article explains that essentially the USA is not much better than Greece in terms of total debt accumulation and the tax revenue to service said debt expressed in GDP ratios. I boil it down to actual "tax revenues" that are recorded on a daily basis at the US Treasury. Why rely on faulty GDP hedonistic formulas when you can just count the actual net tax revenues?
Also there is a link to the latest 30 year bond auction failure ... I am continually baffled by this since a vast majority of the US Treasury buying is not long term but short term, one year or less. Comparatively speaking there is almost no interest in the long bond according to the US Treasury statements.
CURRENT UNFUNDED LIABILITIES
Total US Treasury outlays for three entitlement line items for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are running as follows.
FY2010
JAN(MONTH OF) = $83.9BIL USD or $4.4BIL PER DAY
FY2010
FEB(8 DAYS) = $62BIL USD or $7.75BIL PER DAY
As you can see the "liabilities" just over the past two months are ratcheting up at a rate of 76% between the Month of January and the first eight days of February FY2010. That is an incredible rate of expenditure that brings to light the unfunded liability dilemma that the Zero Hedge article speaks to.
In my readings lately of the book THE NEW DEAL IN OLD ROME this statement was in the chapter entitled THE TOTALITARIAN STATE ... "In 301AD heavy contributions of grain were exacted from farmers to feed the soldiers and the population of the large cities. There were land taxes, property taxes, occupation taxes, poll taxes. It has been said of this period that "the penalty for wealth seemed to be ruin." The heart was taken out of the enterprising men ... Private enterprise was crushed and the state was forced to take over many kinds of businesses to keep the machine running."
I submit to you that we already technically exist in a "totalitarian state" as the current two party political monopoly partnered with the money monopoly has morphed into a dictatorship. How else would you expect a monopoly to act? We have no representation, so by default we should have no taxes.
There has never been an Empire, past or present, who was able to achieve lasting prosperity through long term debt accumulation.
Re: Mortgage rates to go up in India
So India is now facing inflationary pressures in interest rates and food prices. Sounds like the expanding middle class consumer is getting squeezed. And in China, is a similar process occurring, while being whitewashed with official propaganda? Understanding a little of the Chinese appreciation for gambling, I am left wondering at what damage may result from the possible speculative nature of certain elements of their economy.
All while the US and the EU stare into the debt abyss:
"Economically, we are in a very risky situation. Greece is close to default. We face systemic risk like the Lehman collapse and unless there is a bail-out for Greece, there will have to be a bail-out for the whole European banking system within two or three months," he said.
Yet they are damned if they don't, and damned if they do. "A Greek bail-out increases the risk of EMU break-up, because monetary union can only work if everybody sticks to the rules," Mr Felsenheimer said.
French banks have $76bn of exposure to Greece, the Swiss $64bn, and the Germans $43bn. But this understates cross-border links. There are large loans between vulnerable states. The exposure of Portuguese banks to Spain and Ireland equals 19pc of Portugal's GDP. Interlocking claims within the eurozone zone are complex. Contagion can spread fast."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/f...
Re: Mortgage rates to go up in India
ALOHA !!
Les ... Here in Hawaii there is huge food price inflation. Is there any food inflation in Switzerland?
I think we owe an apology to our elders here in America who actually did suffer through a Great Depression! So far all we are suffering now is this inane US FED and US Treasury attempt at long term "price fixing"!
Re: Citi 6 months and out
Grym,
We are hearing of HUD grants to assist foreclosed families stay put while earning a second chance to buy back their homes. Helps that our State Attorney General won 1.8 M suit against Countrywide/BAC to be distributed as assistance and training people how to avoid getting in financial trouble (that horse is out of the barn).
Fact is: Citi and a passle of other mortgage banks are so behind in the FC process, they can't evict people in under a year anyway, so they may as well grin and bear it. Makes good PR to sound all helpful don't you think? Bet there's an incentive paid by us in there somewhere.
china banks
Well China is sucking liquidity from their banking system to control inflation, and that pushed the euro right off the cliff this morning. Gold down -13, SPX down -8, and the euro off -1.48. Friday as a down day holds once again.
My only question is, will people want to buy the dip friday and hold into the weekend, or will the sell off grow worse as the day progresses?
Re: Mortgage rates to go up in India
Kaimu asked: "Here in Hawaii there is huge food price inflation. Is there any food inflation in Switzerland?"
I honestly don't know Stephen, probably. I cleaned up the debt trap we were in and now with generous disposable income in our budget I don't fret over food prices. There I guess we are part of a minority that will not be the first to be squeezed in what looks to be an inflationary future.
As a house dad just bumming around until the stock market opens daily I've taken habit to go to the supermarket at the right time of day and snap up all the food that has been marked down 25-50% in order to clear the shelves before the use by date. That's my little trick to keep food prices (particularly meat) under control. As a former cook I have no interest in manufactured food, which also helps cost control.
Wrapping up my first month of day trading today, after finally "getting it" and ceasing to fight the tape, it looks like I'll end the month flat or slightly green, despite the horrendous occasional session of revenge trading. Eliminating these bad tendencies as I move forward permit me not only to hold my own against the market but provide a second household income that should alleviate the stagnating income of my partner (her public service salary was not raised in 2010 as the state deemed 2009 a non-inflationary period).
If this is insufficient and we end up in a Wiemar situation then I think its safe to say we're all up the proverbial creek without a paddle.
Today
Wish I could just trade the first half hour and the last hour of the day, fade the amateurs in the first 30 minutes and see what the pros do the last hour. Oh, well.
Anyway, also wished I had sold more into yesterday's rally. I had picked up a bunch of stuff in last Friday's kangaroo tail reversal.
I'd be looking at the midpoint between the open and the low of the day for last Friday for potential, lower (note I said lower, not low) risk entry points.
I still believe the big boys are testing the lows of the range.
FWIW,
JMO.
BDI
Looks like the Baltic Dry Index has continued to go down...now at 2,500. The obvious downtrend test is 2160, the previous low in the 1 year up trend. If it breaks that then it doesn't bode well for economic growth. I wonder why no one mentions this when it goes down...it's a volatile index so I suppose we shouldn't read into it too much, even though it does measure economic activity. The 1 year chart looks solid but if it can't hold at 2160 then it could be an omen.