Morning Call [7:45am ET] Yesterday I remarked that the S&P 1200 Global Index has turned south and today I will expand on that topic. But first I want to point to a matter that disturbs me greatly. We often criticize the sell-side (Humungous Bank & Broker HB&B) for their conflict of interest foundation, but there are similar problems with the so-called buy-side. George Soros is a case in point. Today’s Wall St. Journal carries the mind-boggling story: “Hedge Funds Try 'Career Trade' Against Euro”. These people may be managing your money; you should be furious.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870379500457508774184807439...
Some heavyweight hedge funds have launched large bearish bets against the euro in moves that are reminiscent of the trading action at the height of the U.S. financial crisis… The big bets are emerging amid gatherings such as an exclusive "idea dinner" earlier this month that included hedge-fund titans SAC Capital Advisors LP and Soros Fund Management LLC. During the dinner, hosted by a boutique investment bank at a private townhouse in Manhattan, a small group of all-star hedge-fund managers argued that the euro is likely to fall to "parity"—or equal on an exchange basis—with the dollar, people close to the situation say… The currency wagers signal that big financial players spot a rare trading opening driven by broader market gyrations. The euro, which traded at $1.51 in December, now trades around $1.35. With traders using leverage—often borrowing 20 times the size of their bet, accentuating gains and losses—a euro move to $1 could represent a career trade. If investors put up $5 million to make a $100 million trade, a 5% price move in the right direction doubles their initial investment… "This is an opportunity...to make a lot of money," says Hans Hufschmid, a former senior Salomon Brothers executive who now runs GlobeOp Financial Services SA, a hedge-fund administrator in London and New York… It is impossible to calculate the precise effect of the elite traders' bearish bets, but they have added to the selling pressure on the currency—and thus to the pressure on the European Union to stem the Greek debt crisis… There is nothing improper about hedge funds jumping on the same trade unless it is deemed by regulators to be collusion. Regulators haven't suggested that any trading has been improper.
I say this syndicate is in collusion and the trading they are doing is improper because they are trading to force a result and they are publicly trading in securities without a license to sell by virtue of the fact they are major media Talking Heads. Moreover they are managing Other People’s Money and they are crap-shooting.
Wake up SEC!!! The public is not going to take this nonsense much longer.
It finally hit me; what we need is for the SEC to be set up as a Grand Jury – anonymous independent and objective people who operate in a private and confidential boardroom to determine whether securities related matters are in the public interest. Politics and money, like oil and water, don’t mix too well. Sad to say, but, as it stands today, the SEC is a parody of an effective regulator.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_jury
Now let’s get to the market.
What is the S&P 1200 Global index, can we trade it, and why is it important?
As you know, we don’t trade stocks in a vacuum, we are not all Americans, and not all stocks traded in the world are American. So, in our analysis of price trends and cycles, just like we look at global economic data, commodity prices, interest rates and currencies, we also must be mindful of equity market dynamics in other countries. While the S&P 500 is the US stock market index most widely followed by asset managers, the S&P 1200 covers 700 stocks large and mid-cap stocks from many other countries.
Wiki describes the S&P Global 1200 index as follows:
The S&P Global 1200 Index is a free-float weighted stock market index of global equities from Standard & Poor's. The index covers 31 countries and approximately 70 percent of global stock market capitalization. It is composed of six regional indices:
S&P 500 Index (United States)
S&P/TSX 60 Index (Canada)
S&P Latin America 40 Index (Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile)
S&P/TOPIX 150 Index (Japan)
S&P Asia 50 Index (Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan)
S&P/ASX 50 Index (Australia)
S&P Europe 350 Index. The European index is divided into three subindices: the S&P Euro, covering the eurozone markets; the S&P Euro Plus, adding Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland; and the S&P United Kingdom.The Global 1200 includes companies in all ten GICS sectors.
There is an S&P 1500 index (NYSE:ISI), but that index is not a global index. It includes only the US stocks in the S&P 500 (large cap), S&P 400 (mid cap), and S&P 600 (small cap) indexes.
Yesterday I presented one-year charts to show that the price of the S&P Global index failed to break out above the 50-day Moving Average and has turned down whereas the S&P 500 US index is still nudging up to the declining 50d MA. Here is the six-month chart, which shows the picture more clearly.
S&P 500 index
S&P 1200 index
The S&P Global 1200 index is not traded; however, the IOO iShares S&P Global 100 Index is traded. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IOO
Here is a link to the 100 components of the S&P Global 100 index. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S&P_Global_100
In the chart below, note how the IOO (57.12 closing basis) yesterday touched below the 200-day Moving Average (55.69. The Daily view shows the one lower high and now we are waiting to see if there will be a subsequent lower low. Expect support in the 54.38 to 55.00 level.
Yesterday, I illustrated how the S&P 500 and S&P 1200 indexes rise and fall with the fall and rise of the $USD. When the $USD rises, both indexes tend to fall, and the Global 1200 index falls faster than the S&P 500. I concluded that whether you should be tending to buy US or foreign shares is really a factor of whether the US Dollar is rising or falling against a basket of global currencies.
Yesterday I showed the 5-year Performance chart of iShares S&P Global 100 (NYSE:IOO) vs S&P 500. I remarked that clearly there are times when the S&P 500 US index is rising faster or falling faster than the Global index.
Here are the IOO:$SPX charts that show relative price performance for the Daily and Weekly price data. Note how the trend is down – the IOO is falling faster than the falling $SPX since early December [when the $USD started rallying], but is now possibly ready to reverse course for at least one short-term cycle. That means the $USD is probably ready to reverse its present strength for at least a brief period, which means that commodity and precious metals prices might be ready to lift again.
As I remarked yesterday, the Global 1200 index rises faster than the S&P 500 US index when the $USD is falling. Also, both indexes tend to rise when the $USD is falling. I showed that in the 4th and 5th charts I produced for yesterday’s blog, one from November 2008 and the other in recent days.
So, now we need to look at the $USD picture relative to the S&P 500 ($SPX), and we see that relative strength peaked Feb 8, so that falls in line with our thesis that maybe the Dollar will soften here and the S&P 500, commodities and precious metals will rally a bit.
Often, it’s easier to use indexes rather than individual stocks to study capital market price trends and cycles. I’m hoping that the participants in this blog can elevate the discussion to this level and stop inserting comments like “In ABC @ 15.50” or “Did you read what Soros said”. We must understand that effective trading requires price study. The answers to your questions are in the data. You need to look and to have an open discussion of what you see.
As the policeman at the scene of a crime remarked, “Ten witnesses, ten different stories.” But at the end of the note-taking, that officer concludes on the weight of the evidence. In our case, we are all witness to the same video, so maybe seven or eight of every ten ought to get our story right.
Final point: don’t listen to people who talk their book. Talking heads like George Soros, Warren Buffett and the like are not independent and objective. Don’t buy what they are selling. When they speak, maybe they are telling a lie, but mostly they are trying to get you to follow them. The market is marketing; please do not forget it. Do your own study or work only with independent traders to do your trade set-ups. You’ll enjoy the freedom, and the results over time will be impressive.
As for the morning outlook, the $USD is a tad weaker and equity, oil and precious metals futures a tad stronger. Asia-Pacific was positive and Europe had a very strong open followed by side-tracking prices.
But nothing much is happening, yet.
Have a great day.
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
The only suspense of the day was how much snow would fall in New York, and how many goals the US hockey team would score. Markets were quiet -- sometimes the silence of the tape speaks more loudly than the post-close commentary.
No new information gleaned from the intra-day price action today. Sorry.
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| Blog_Feb_26.1.GIF | 13.98 KB |
| Blog_Feb_26.2.GIF | 14.89 KB |
| Blog_Feb_26.3.GIF | 35.81 KB |
| Blog_Feb_26.4.GIF | 32.06 KB |
| Blog_Feb_26.5.GIF | 35.37 KB |
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Comments
Making Sense of Today's Gold Market
using Donchian Channels.
Video:
http://tinyurl.com/yc7t39g
Adding AUD/USD to my watch list
With all the Greece noise baked into the EURO, I wanted to add another USD pair.
http://chart.ly/y3tt9x
I don't trade currencies. Just trying to use them as navigation tools. The AUd/USD pair looks like it is definitely topping. Once it broke under the 89 day for the 2nd time, it never recaptured.
If everyone jumps on the Euro and successfully affects an...
outcome, does the USD index rise accordingly? I don't understand if the $USD must rise if the Euro is trashed, or if it may just well rise with the flight to perceived monetary safety. I assume the Euro's thrashing will be the dollar's gain to a certain extent.
From the WSJ article:
"Donald Morgan, head of hedge-fund Brigade Capital, told the group he believed Greek debt is an early domino to fall in a contagion that eventually will hit U.S. companies, municipalities and Treasury securities."
So are hedge funds prepared to burn Rome in order to make their career trade? How destabilising will this be for various global currencies? Isn't this what contributed to the crash in 1987?
Thank you for the IOO chart Bill. This is easier than trying to divine from individual stock exchanges what direction we're going in, for this layman anyway.
Cara 100 Update
BBY - BB&T Initiates Coverage with a Buy. PT = $45
Re: If everyone jumps on the Euro and successfully affects an...
This is the same thing that happened with CDS's. A lot of hedge funds jumped on the same trades to drive the CDS's up astronomically, which the ratings agencies were looking and used in ultimately downgrading the underlying companies, causing the companies to either default on their debt or raise more capital due to rising debt costs associated with the downgrade.
If you don't think that was collusion then you must work for the SEC.
Trades
At the risk of offending the board, I see:
1) one buy on the ETF scan I run: SZK
2) one buy and one accumulate on the SP500: FPL/DYN
3) GLD, SLV, GDX, and BND are mid range in the RSI Triple Scan
4) I missed the March 09 bottom and would love to just buy and let things run but in the current environment, my most productive trades have been buying when all have given up hope or fear reigns and then letting them go when they rally back to resistance or where the maximum number of options expire worthless. When compared against a risk free benchmark like IEF, these trades are actually lower risk than the indices and many,many stocks.
5) I post my entry price to confirm I took the trade I posted. I try to post the reason I took the trade which at the current time is a) a strong reversal off a low (a kangaroo tail reversal/doji dragonfly) or b) capitulation when the RSI 7 day is below 10 with an upside target. I ALWAYS post a disclaimer - everyone has to be responsible for their own trades. Good entry prices and exit prices along with position size are critical, no matter what the trading environment.
Good luck/good trading
Gunning for Goldman on Greece swaps
Gunning for Goldman on Greece swaps. Testifying before Congress, Bernanke revealed that the Federal Reserve is examining the role of Goldman Sachs (GS) and other banks in arranging swaps deals for Greece. In particular, the Fed will reportedly look at whether Wall Street used complicated financial instruments to hide the debt levels of European countries, a move one lawmaker said is "amplifying a public crisis for what would appear to be for private gain." Separately, the SEC said it's investigating "potential abuses and destabilizing effects" related to credit-default swaps, though a spokesman declined to specify whether the probe was aimed at Wall Street firms' actions in Europe.
Cara 100 Update
GSK - Upgraded to Neutral @ Government Sachs.
"Wake up SEC!!!"
Bill,
Regulatory agencies in the US be they FDA, Interstate Commerce Commission, SEC etc. are set up to regulate various industries not as popularly held that they protect the consumer, but for the benefit of the established producers to limit future competition and guard existing revenue through the use of regulations by these institutions. The SEC works for the big financial institutions not the public. The FED works for the major banks not the public. The FDA works for Big Pharma. They do not work the people, nor were they designed to work for the people. Their masters are the firms they regulate. With this notion in mind, the SEC is doing a fantastic job! :)
Speaking of Collusion
Why is it that several firms come out on the same day to recommend or downgrade a stock? Are they not colluding? Look at the number of analysts that have spoken about CCJ today.
US takes market leadership over global markets
Ft yesterday had this column that the US has now taken leadership of the world markets, and frets that the US has many problems that make this leadership very uncertain, good graphs here.
http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-11dc-b971-0000...?
Re: Trades
I personally enjoy your posts BSI, you almost always give a trade set up with parameters used and exits illustrated. At least for me...I find your posts beneficial.
Re: Gunning for Goldman on Greece swaps
This examination will likely provide cover for GS, et al. Judging from past behavior I would expect the Fed to find that GS did not engage in any illegal activity.
trades
BSI, teamonfuego, I also like the posted trades.
However, I'd like to gain a better understanding of currency markets. Aren't they essentially relative? ie doesn't the relative value of the euro and the dollar exist only in the context of value versus every other currency?
If this is the case, what is the benefit of shorting a currency if it's going to have a major impact globally? If the euro drops precipitously, the damage to the european economy would then slam the united states in the form of a dramatic drop in trade, since euros would buy fewer american products. Or am I misreading?
TM closing trade
long @ 72.72 2/4
out today @ 74.24.
Max pain for March is 75, was 80, guessing the recent low will be broken for a very solid trading bottom. RSI 45/34/40 right now.
about 12% cash now.
Re: Trades
I like your posts BSI. Have learned lots by watching. I think you have highlighted some useful tools, like Max Pain and ATR.
Re: Trades
BSi..Please continue describing your very creative :capitulation" set ups and trades. As a newbie, I appreciate the explanations and have tried the method and think, as you mentioned, that it is one of the few that seems to work these days.
CAR, GME
CAR:
Closed my trade at $9.95 that I opened yesterday at $9.76. This is a kangaroo tail reversal trade, although I'm not entirely sure this was the setup. This trade setup was pretty good for a few reasons:
1.) Volume was high during the recent plunge, at about 3 times normal volume on what I thought was actually not that bad earnings.
2.) The 200 DMA was at $9.65ish so the stop could be placed only slightly below the 200 DMA, which made it a good risk-reward trade.
I think the sell off had more to do with people just taking gains than with any fundamental flaw with the business.
GME:
I'm afraid the same can't be said for GME, which I entered at an average of $17.64. There are serious questions surrounding the viability of their business model so I'm not expecting a quick bounce back. However, a few things bode well for a bounce:
1.) the recent selloff brough RSI7 down to 14 which is pretty oversold.
2.) Sentiment around GME is really really bad.
3.) Double bottom: Based on yesterday's close there is a double bottom on this from late 2008 at $17.50.
4.) There has been heavy volume on this downturn so a good portion of the sellers are gone.
5.) BSI thinks there is a kangaroo tail reversal set up on this although I think that can't happen on a gap down...
Wake up SEC!!!
"Wake up SEC!!! The public is not going to take this nonsense much longer."
Bill, What can we do about it?
Nobody in gov. cared that we didn't want the bank bailouts.
We are very likely going to get a useless health care plan.
Regulation of the financial industry would mean a repudiation of the Fed, indicting the regulators who did no regulating, including the SEC, various Congressional oversight committees, etc.
Those who can make the needed changes are a part of the whole need for change.
I am an American (Too-Small-to-Matter)and, after decades of writing, have given up on letters which beget form letter replies. I can't even get the local city council's attention regarding our city's deficit spending.
We now know that for eight years there was an attempt to get the SEC to stop Madoff.
Re: CAR, GME
I'm enjoying the kangaroo tail approach. Need to work on my timing instead of buying during the plunge. Accumulating PLM; mentioned it a few days ago - may be good for a bounce soon off of 200d SMA today. See attached chart. Plunge related to company update re: draft environmental impact statement and EPA issues with it. Not a pump or trading advice- just an idea I have in play. Average cost is $2.65 or so...
KC
New Cara 100 list is now posted
To download the current Cara 100 listing, click "Cara 100" in the top menu, then "Click Here for the latest Cara 100 list".
Jack
Re: CAR, GME
Thats an interesting one KC...thanks for pointing it out. I'm going to watch how today transpires to see if it confirms a KTR (Kangaroo Tail Reversal).
By the way, check out IRDM. They have a KTR on a longer time frame...the tail being 2/17/10. I think you could buy here at $6.54 and target $7.7 on the upside.
Re: Trades
bsi87
Thank you for taking the time to post as you do.
I've been watching and trying to figure out how I can make it work for myself.
I do have a couple of questions if you have time:
1. does the max pain site you use have any type of screener which lists stocks etc which have the largest discrepency between current price and settlement price? and,
2. I understand the rational for the max pain calculation and what it implies but was wondering if it is "generally correct". (I know nothing is perfect)
Cheers
NY COMEX Gold and Silver Inventory Analysis
If COMEX numbers are indeed accurate then physical shortages are looming...
"So the conclusion that can be drawn from this data is that the metal being
delivered from the registered category is not on its own high enough by a
substantial margin to meet the obligations represented by the delivery notices. It
is not, however, possible to say where the balance has come from.
But what is more important is that the data reveals a very shocking trend. That is
that the registered (dealer) inventory is being drawn down at a phenomenal rate.
In silver the inventory has dropped by 24% in 6 months while in gold it has
dropped an eye-popping 41% in 6 months! The withdrawal to deposit ratio for
registered silver is 14:1 and in gold it is 5:1. If this rate of drawdown continues
the registered inventory of silver will be exhausted in 18.8 months and in just 8.5
months for gold!
This inventory drawdown is very revealing. Over the same period the open
interest in gold increased 15% while in silver it increased 19%. By way of an
analogy one would not expect a company with increasing orders to decrease its
stock levels! Why would the inventory not be replenished when Open Interest is
increasing? The most likely reason is a growing shortage of bullion."
See February 25 entry...
http://tinyurl.com/ye82n4p
Nice looking double top short
EDU this china stock ran too fast to this top and looks ready to short.
Re: CAR, GME
I like that one. Seems like a sound little company that's been beaten up. From the chart attached it looks like once it breaks out of this channel it could generate a short squeeze. (5.4 days to cover).
http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=IRDM&submit=Short+...
Thanks for sharing the idea.
KC
Re: CAR, GME
re:CAR
yesterday's candlestick was a "spinning top", indication of indecision. KTR have long skinny tails and point down when rejecting a low and up when rejecting a high. Looks like it bounced off the 200 DSMA. 10 day ATR is .65.
Max pain is 12.5 for March, 10 for April.
re:GME
looks like 2 rejects of lows yesterday and today (so far). Max pain 20 for March and April. I don't know of any rule on kangaroo tails and gap downs. I like gap down openings because it (IMO) indicates panic by the amateurs who have tight sell stops or put in market orders the night before. Gaps don't have to be filled but they tend to be magnetic, pulling the stock price back to the mid point of the gap. A sell stop under the last two days' lows would be prudent.
FD:GME long at ave cost 17.79. Shoulda waited till 3pm to put on a buy stop above 3pm price OR put in a buy limit mid point of 7.30. My entry would be in the green instead of in the red right now.
Kangaroo Tail Reversal
I have been seeing comments regarding a Kangaroo Tail Reversal but I have no idea what the various contributors are referring to. I have looked on the web and in various trading encyclopedias but have had no luck getting a definition. Will somebody please give me some direction. I have been reading the blog for over a year but this is my first comment. I want to take this opportunity to thank all of the contributors and especially Bill, for all of the information and help provided.
Re: Trades
1) no, wish it did. It'd cut down the work. Have to do max pain and compare difference plus the ATR. No options, no trade.
2) look up maximum pain options expiration. Point where most options expire worthless. Answer is "usually" the max pain point exerts a pull, generally closer to options expiration day. If the max pain point is below the potential entry point (for a long), why take the trade? There's always another bus (and trade).
Off to work.
GL
Re: Kangaroo Tail Reversal
look up "Kangaroo Tail Reversal" on google. It is one of Elder's trading tools. Recommend Elder's books.
Short on time.
GL
Stops
On a percentage basis, how tight should stops be?
Re: Kangaroo Tail Reversal
Hey Pops!
Glad to see you getting into the water finally!
And for those of you who might be concerned about this (Bill Cara, Grym, davefairtex, Freedom57, Fjd10595, Nygrad...etc...) its ok! .. he really is nothing (at all) like me... There is a better than good chance that you guys would actually like him...LOL!
Happy trading.
Re: CAR, GME
KC - I don't see nearly enough shorts in this one (IRDM) to make it a short squeeze. That being said, I did open up a position at $6.54.
Wondering if the shorts will pull the rug out from underneath
JRCC... tough one to figure out... content to watch for now.. have been watching the flow in DG. Interesting set-up developing.
Re: Stops
Thats the million dollar question. Id say it depends on where you enter in relation to the inflection point you rely on. Maybe 4% away?
Re: Stops
Stops can't be placed based on % or $ amount alone, it's a surefire way to get stopped at the wrong time. Please read http://www.realitytrader.com/blog/2007/04/stops-wh...
You guy's catch that ?
NUE ceo said, " We don't comment on False Rumors ( in regard to CMC buyout )"... then he said, " let me correct that... We don't comment on Rumors "... hmmmmm
Re: Speaking of Collusion
teamonfuego,
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Cameco-Reports-Recor...
Upward earnings revision yesterday, and the analysts happened to be on the job. Nothing untoward there, I think.
Traders also saw a very bullish long lower shadow on the candlestick chart.
Re: Wake up SEC!!!
Grym,
I hear you, but I am not disheartened at all. I believe that the more we talk about these things, the more than mainstream media will pick up the cue. Politicians do react to what's in the newspapers, and if it's continuously unflattering, they get voted out.
Re: Speaking of Collusion
Bill - I hear you but I counted 7 different firms come out and cut their target prices.
Re: Kangaroo Tail Reversal
parkmca,
http://www.kangarootail.com/about/
See also dragonfly doji (illustration 9) at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candlestick_chart
Re: Speaking of Collusion
teamonfuego,
Analysts will cut the TP if guidance is weak.
We occasionally see an analyst raise the rating, but cut the Target Price.
Re: You guy's catch that ?
Be cautious, he is one of Cramers buddies. Could be intentional so Cramers hedge fund friends can unload.
Bought 1k shares @ 15.72 and watching closely.
Desperate in California
A reader writes to Mish
Reader "Paul" just pinged me this news affecting business owners and self-employed contractors.
Hi Mish
I just picked up tax documents from my CPA. California require me to pay 30% of my estimated tax for the year on 04/15/10 and another 50% by 06-15-10. The balance of 20% is due on 01-15-11.
They want 80% of my annual estimate after 6 months, taxing me on money I have yet to earn for the year.
Only in La-La Land could one think these actions should impress the bond market. Then again, the stock market soared mid-day after Bernanke repeated for the 40th time that he was not hiking soon. So hey, who knows?
Mish
GlobalEconomicAnalysis.blogspot.com
IOU's return
California legislators also are attempting to delay payment to school districts in an attempt to convince
bond buyers that they are getting their house in order.
Guess that's why they call it LaLa Land
Re: Kangaroo Tail Reversal
Thanks to all.
Stops
Thanks for link, Vad, and the response, Geoffrey.
Re: Stops
Stops are something you have to develop as you develop as a trader. Different time frames, different stops. Planning a trade is the best teacher of where you place a stop.
Re: You guy's catch that ?
True... could be double entendre..
MPEL
I'm following this one too. If it can make a higher high on some decent volume (which it doesn't appear to have today) it might have some legs. Added to existing position at 3.92 today. Macau gaming play. I like the chart as a turnaround with a defined stop beneath the recent lows.
an article of mine has been published,
recently interviewed former CIBC frontman Jeff Rubin and my article got picked up by the Canadian Institute of Mining, here is the link to the digital version, page #36
http://cim.dgtlpub.com/2010/2010-02-28/home.php
dont worry though i havent gone mainstream, im still digging in the crates hacking bad gold buggery to pieces at caracom dot com.
if you see me at the PDAC, holla!!!!
Re: You guy's catch that ?
Out @ 16.40
Re: Wake up SEC!!!
Bill, Grym,
Grief comes in stages: disbelief (denial), anger, negotiating, more denial then after a range of wild swings one settles eventually into acceptance. This range of emtions is what I am witnessing in the financial victims of our market who bought the American Dream and all the trappings that they could not actually, in fact, afford. At least not for very long.
Acceptance brings a kind of calm. OK we can't save the house or the fanmily business but what can we salvage out of this? Our dignity? Our health? Our rights as citizens to KNOW our rights? What have we learned here? To take part perhaps. Be a citzen. Be part of the solution not just an angry denial ridden mob who want to take the systems down. Sure the systems need work. The systems also have inbuilt failsafes if you know where to find them. A little rusty but they are there.
I can say the people I've been working with do eventually get it that their own lack of understanding about their most important financial decisions is the culprit. And it is by first becoming aware about these consequences and new choices that they are digging out. Fortunately, we do have some public servants who get it it is their job to serve. One of my clients wrote her congress persons. Two US Senators responded. One actually called the CEO of her bank to inquire about her case. The other provided useful information that directed her to the Comptroller of the Currency. The comptroller of the Currency and no less than two State Attorneys General took an interest and responded with advice. Private institutions like Banks perk up when they realize you know your rights. It was no coincidence that her denied modification papers suddenly reappeared all nicely typed with the word 'approved' on page one.
I think naturalized citizens get a better grounding in how things work than many USA born and educated among us. We all have much to learn about helping shape our world. Myself included.
Re: Wake up SEC!!!
It is more than just people misunderstanding and being mislead....it is massive complicate thievery, very intentional, on a nationwide scale.
Re: Wake up SEC!!!
Sadly there will always be those who will intentionally take advantage of others. Thievery can only happen if you take your eye off your game.
Re: CAR, GME
Re: Not enough shorts in IRDM to generate a "squeeze"
Yes I guess I misinterpreted the 5.4 days to cover as being a big deal out of ignorance. Turns out the most heavily shorted stocks have "days to cover" in the teens. But I like the idea and followed you in at $6.55. Nice to see it got a little pop at the close. Yesterdays pop was apparently due to it being mentioned on CNBC by hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson. I looked at his report from earlier in the month and found it fairly insightful.
http://tinyurl.com/yfvxjoj
Re: CAR, GME
Interesting report by Tilson. Good to know he's on our side on this trade, although I know I'll be out before he is.
Re: You guy's catch that ?
Nice way to start the weekend !
1st Day of the Month
Here is the move in the S&P 500 on the 1st day of the month since March 2009:
Apr 09: +14 pts
May 09: +5 pts
Jun 09: +23 pts
Jul 09: +4 pts
Aug 09: +15 pts
Sep 09: -22 pts
Oct 09: -28 pts
Nov 09: +6 pts
Dec 09: +13 pts
Jan 09: +17 pts
Feb 09: +16 pts
9 out of 11 months up
3 out of 11 months moved less than 1%
Absolute average move = 14.82 pts
Who is lending the 20 x to the hedge funds?
Is it ME via the TARP, TALF, etc via the bankers from the Fed?
Lets be honest... WHO in their right mind would lend their own money for such a bet?
Re: Who is lending the 20 x to the hedge funds?
From my understanding, its their prime broker that lends them money. Read "When Genius Failed" to see a story with an unhappy ending regarding leverage.
As with any other lender, the brokers don't actually need to *have* the money to lend out. They just create it with some keystrokes. How much they can create is limited by their capital on hand, multiplied by the leverage they want to maintain. Banks have limitations based on regulation. To be a "well capitalized institution" a bank must maintain a 6% tier one capital ratio.
tier one capital / risk-adjusted assets > 6%
Tier One capital is (largely) aggregate retained earnings + common stock original price + any "perpetual preferred" shares sold.
TARP counted as Tier 1 capital - so yes, each $1 of TARP money can result in $17 of hedge fund purchasing power.
The really amusing part of the leverage game is, any losses hits the Tier One capital directly - every $1 loss effectively sucks $17 out of the economy.
The "risk weighting" is also amusing. Based on the risk weightings, a $1 treasury note only counts at $0.10, since it has a risk weighting of 10%. Mortgage loans, 50% risk weighting. So leverage will exceed 17:1.
And so if you lose money, you need to de-lever - dump some of those "extra assets" at whatever price you can get. Hope you don't lose money dumping assets, or you get another loss, impacting your tier one capital - and you have to dump more assets.
It sure seems like a poorly designed system to me.
Forgive me if you already know this.
Re: 1st Day of the Month
Thanks TOF, that's great stuff. Don't forget about the Monday effect as well. Average gain on mondays: +3.1 SPX, by far the best day of the week.
'I Don't Where To Start'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHbpPp7bWBo&feature...
I stopped by to look around
For things I left behind
With the years we spent together
There's no telling what I'll find
Its not the keys or the records
It's the love I'm looking for
'Cause the last time that I had it
I was walking out your door
And I came by to get some things
I used to call my own
I didn't think that I'd need them
When I started out alone
It's not the books or the records
But my heart I'm looking for
'Cause the last time that I felt it
I was walking out your door
But I don't know where to start
Looking for the lonely heart
Oh I could tear this place apart if you won't mind it
On a shelf behind the book
In the closet on a hook
If you'd only help me look I know I'll find it
I stopped in to tell you
That there isn't any doubt
That the things I left here with you
Are the things I can't live without
You can keep all that I have ever owned
It's the love I'm looking for
'Cause the the last time I felt it
I was walking out your door
But I don't know where to start
Looking for the lonely heart
Oh I could tear this place apart if you won't mind it
Is it on a shelf behind the book
On a closet on the hook
If you'd only help me look, I know we'll find it
Beautiful early-eighties recording by Eddie Rabbit. Perfect song (maybe encouragement) for a Friday night. It's usually a Friday or Saturday night when someone needs one or the other.
Re: "Wake up SEC!!!"
If we have to "Wake up the SEC" to do what they should be doing anyway, IT IS OVER
WAKE UP AMERICA
Far Away
nickelBack: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxZByfLPdSQ
Re: Far Away
Another romantic ;)
GAG A MAGGOT!
late breaking porkers: http://tinyurl.com/ya4cjal
The Shadow Elite
Whoever recommended this book, thank you!
http://tinyurl.com/yf8rb78
Weekend Read
copy of Mauldin's e-letter:
his thoughts on Greece (no one, especially Germany, is going to bail them out). A bit of enlightenment on the subject of War reparations (I thought that was a joke. Seems the Greeks are serious).
Money multiplier affect, or lack of, and why we don't have inflation
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-we-dont-have-hy...
Re: Who is lending the 20 x to the hedge funds?
"From my understanding, its their prime broker that lends them money. Read "When Genius Failed" to see a story with an unhappy ending regarding leverage."
Are the "prime brokers" in the "too big to fail/free money from the fed" camp? If so, that means they are risking MY money to kill the system? If those bets go south, at 20 to 1 they go south way to fast to exit.
Re: Who is lending the 20 x to the hedge funds?
cheapy asked "Lets be honest... WHO in their right mind would lend their own money for such a bet?"
Simon Johnson remarks:
"There is no doubt that the regulatory environment is going to be tougher for the next few years. But nothing has changed to make us believe the regulatory system will succeed this time, when it has failed so enormously – and repeatedly – in the recent past. To bring about the dramatic change that is needed also requires international cooperation and consistency. We doubt such change is truly on the table as so few policy-makers seem to demand it."
Simon Johnson © voxEU.org http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/4659
It's full steam ahead with the same zombies in charge. Hedge funds, banks, all taking risk with tacit regulatory approval and friends in Washington to call upon when they lose.
Re: Wake up SEC!!!
Loannetter,
I understand the grief process and I'm sympathetic to people who were led to believe they could buy beyond their means. Mine is not that situation except the part about the American Dream of the goal of "justice for all."
I have voted in every election since 1960 — city, state, and national until the most recent primary (I refuse to declare for a ballot anymore — required in Illinois — since I do not want to affiliate with either party). I've always taken care to learn what I could about the choices.
Since I was first allowed by law to manage my own retirement account in 1983 I did so and averaged 10.15% /year net until 2008. At that time it was nearly the same as Vanguard Total Stock Fund (10.31% then), but I paid commissions.
I am an avid reader of history. I know how it is supposed to work. I have a copy of the Constitution within reach and see so many violations it is sickening.
As Bill has so often pointed out the rules have been changing. Actually, we don't know the rules anymore and IMO, we are experiencing financial anarchy. The analogy to war is apt... guerrilla war! There is no uniformity of law and we wear no uniforms. I see this as a fight for survival not only for our individual standards of living, but for the survival of the USA Republic.
It must be a very depressing time for you in dealing with so many who are getting the short end in the mortgage meltdown. I know it is for me when I keep hearing of friends who have been so badly affected. Families who are consolidating into one house due to bankruptcies of their children and even grand children. People desperately trying to find work. A friend this week (age 91) whose daughter and son-in-law have both lost jobs and must pull his grand daughter out of college. There seems no end and no plan other than to "save the biggest" and reward them for their crimes.
The culprits are many and so diverse that there is no single target to pursue. The biggest offenders are not even elected.
We can throw all of them out of Congress, but the bureaucrats will remain like a virus and continue to infect the system. We've allowed an elite class to evolve and I see no solution. We need more than financial reform — we need Constitutional reforms.
Tsunami Alert
Sometimes game-changing events (for the financial markets) start with an otherwise innocuous report. Obviously, an 8.8 earthquake is anything but innocuous in almost all other respects. An 8.8 in the Bay Area? It would have serious global economic implications. Economic shock waves from an earthquake in Chile? I don't know. But I suspect the impact may be greater than one is able to foresee right now.
Tsunamis often cause far more damage than the earthquake that produced it. Likewise financial tsunamis. Last (but not least) the possibility of financial tsunamis stemming from a (geographically [but not economically] distant) natural disaster.
t3d/kaimu- Keep us updated.
Marketwatch Headline reads 'Buffet: Punish Big Bankers'
http://tinyurl.com/yjwfm8c
Can you imagine the chain of phone calls that might have led to a lead story like that? I don't think big bankers are too concerned right now, and it's not because the last thing they read is what they feed the media.
Re: Marketwatch Headline reads 'Buffet: Punish Big Bankers'
I would give 50/50 odds that Buffet/bankers are signalling an end to the unloading of bank shares. And now need lower prices for repurchase over the next few months.
Re: Gunning for Goldman on Greece swaps
The one caveat that I have read is that Goldman and others may have committed wrongdoing, “BUT” it was before the laws and regulations were changed. Par for the course. Therefore, they are off the hook as usual.
Re: Tsunami Alert
Last time a tsunami was forecast to hit Hawaii; I was on a roof waiting for the wave. We were lucky it was ankle high. This time it has the potential to be more substantial.
My friend called me about 5:45 am, Ken, the best trader I know who has contacts through out the world and over 45 years experience trading who usually trades 100 to 200 SP contracts. An extremely intense person and a bit crazy. Did you hear? No what? Big quake in Chile, tsunami expected I'm at the store for food and water it is already packed. Okay, thanks gotta jump.
I went down to the local Safeway, no parking in the lot. I went around the block and parked in an adjoining lot, someone came by and said if you want bread and water its out with 45 minute wait lines. Said thanks and decide to go home. Stopped by the 7/11 store and was able to get a few bags of ice, this came in handy when we lost electricity for a day about a year ago. I was also able to snag a case of water, one Hagen Daz, and a few bottles of wine.
There are long lines at the gas stations, with some staring to run out of gas. It looks like the impact will be from 11:00 am Hawaii Time. Kaimu’s Hilo is expected to be hit first, he should be just fine, but Hilo is the biggest city next to him. Be safe to all. Let’s hope for another ankle snapper.
Re: Wake up SEC!!!
Grym,
Thank you for your thoughtful reply. I certainly agree with this premise:
"We can throw all of them out of Congress, but the bureaucrats will remain like a virus and continue to infect the system. We've allowed an elite class to evolve.... We need more than financial reform — we need Constitutional reforms."
In my reading of financial and economic news and blogs I come across others who offer alternatives to using printed currency to cover our collective butts. A friend send me this link to a blog I had not previously read, so apologies if you happen to know if this person is less than credible, Author Michael Lindsay. http://tinyurl.com/yfq6mx7
His second chart seems blissfully simple. Kaimu would agree I'm sure! Make the Fed Federal and actually funnel funds back to our own use. Could it be this simple? If so, the problem we have as citizens is casting out the insidious virus in the form of tainted and diseased public servants whose purpose has been perverted by our current systemic conflicts of interest.
I look forward to more stimulating conversations from you and others here on this possibility and how to go about it. One bite of the elephant at a time. By the way, there ARE a few members of our congress who get it also. Let's use them as our insiders to help bring sanity back to governance. http://www.congress.org
Tsunami in Hawaii -slice of life
No this isn't the long awaited Pee-Three Elliot Wave.
The link below will take you to Hilo Bay Web Cam located on top of the Pacific Tsunami Museum. The think tank boys are predicting maybe 12 to 15 foot waves in Hilo bay. If you don't get images right away, hang tight it may just take awhile. The site says you may need to install AxisCam control if you use IE, it is silent on Firefox.
Bays act as amplifiers for long waves like Tsnamis. Hilo was bodyslammed by a large Tsunami in 1946.
Note that the Haiti earthquake happened right on the eclipse which was a no moon.
The current Chile and Japan Earthquakes happened on the approaching full moon.
This is a push me/pull me affect of the large gravitational pull of the moon as it lines up with the sun.
Affects on the markets? Moons have been particularly accurate predictions of turning points this year, although direction is not "known". Massive earthquakes are not a good sign though, for the collective pysche in the current "Mass Global Pychosis" as Daneric has so nicely coined.
Most events in Hawaii have been cancelled, shorelines are being evacuated. People are filling up their gas tanks and water jugs. Just in case.
I'll post some still photos from Kunia Oahu, about 400 feet up, safe viewing of the ocean off Oahu. It's about 8:30AM local time, tsunami expected starting 11:00AM or a little later, and maybe waves coming for several hours.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/02/tsunami-in...
Re: Wake up SEC!!!
Loannetter,
I'm not familiar with the writer, but it is an interesting concept. There is, however, a problem is so very basic that seems nearly impossible to overcome with any degree of certainty. Electing enough people to guaranty Lindsay's first step.
"We must first establish that anyone who supports a debt-based monetary system that benefits an elite few cannot be permitted to hold any elected or appointed office of our government. We must then elect representatives who will put forth legislation to reform the monetary system for the benefit of all—ensuring that (1) no more debt is ever issued without all citizens’ complete approval, and (2) until that debt is retired, no additional debt can be heaped upon our shoulders ever again."
I just looked up my (too) long-time representative, Congressman Don Manzullo, on Wiki. If I were new around here I might very well vote for him based on this bio. What it fails to mention is that he was first elected (1992) on a promise to self limit his term to a maximum of six years. But, like most of these guys he decided he had become "crucial to the welfare of the 16th District". (And it sure beats working.)
It also says, "Manzullo has worked on issues related to the manufacturing sector since his first election to Congress. He was featured on the cover of The Manufacturer because of his work with small business-related policy. From 2001 to 2006 he oversaw the Committee on Small Business as chairman. He held over sixty hearings during this time to investigate the phenomenon of corporate outsourcing."
What it leaves out is his ten years of bragging up this outsourcing as increasing our exports. Exports which used to go to the same companies while they were here in Illinois or in other US states. We lost over 10,000 manufacturing jobs here in his district between 1992 and 2002
Every election has the potential to install the same kind of professional "hangers on" unless we change the Constitution.
I think I'm going to start
I think I'm going to start reading about Tesla.
One day while testing his MECHANICAL resonator, he actually caused an EARTHQUAKE in lower Manhattan:
"Quite unmindful what anyone thought about him, Tesla carried on his vibration and all other experiments. Just what experiment he had in mind on this particular morning will never be known. He busied himself with preparations for it while his oscillator on the supporting iron pillar of the structure kept building up an ever higher frequency of vibrations. He noted that every now and then some heavy piece of apparatus would vibrate sharply, the floor under him would rumble for a second or two—that a window pane would sing audibly, and other similar transient events would happen—all of which was quite familiar to him. These observations told him that his oscillator was tuning up nicely, and he probably wondered why he had not tried it firmly attached to a solid building support before.
Things were not going so well in the neighborhood, however. Down in Police Headquarters in Mulberry Street the "cops" were quite familiar with strange sounds and lights coming from the Tesla laboratory. They could hear clearly the sharp snapping of the lightnings created by his coils. If anything queer was happening in the neighborhood, they knew that Tesla was in back of it in some way or other.
On this particular morning the cops were surprised to feel the building rumbling under their feet. Chairs moved across floors with no one near them. Objects on the officers' desks danced about and the desks themselves moved. It must be an earthquake! It grew stronger. Chunks of plaster fell from the ceilings. A flood of water ran down one of the stairs from a broken pipe. The windows started to vibrate with a shrill note that grew more intense. Some of the windows shattered.
"That isn't an earthquake," shouted one of the officers, "it's that blankety-blank Tesla. Get up there quickly," he called to a squad of men, "and stop him. Use force if you have to, but stop him. He'll wreck the city."
The officers started on a run for the building around the corner. Pouring into the streets were many scores of people excitedly leaving nearby tenement and factory buildings, believing an earthquake had caused the smashing of windows, breaking of pipes, moving of furniture and the strange vibrations" (O' Neill, Prodigal Genius, pp. 159-160).
Re: On the afternoon market action - from yesterday
Grym,
to your http://caracommunity.com/comment/reply/973/58184#c...
Could be, and most likely does - but it doesn't translate into attributing any market on A MINUTE SCALE move someone can't explain to GS, does it? What you talk about is a realm of big scale decisions, sinister or not. Intraday market movement up is a realm of a trading desk, not having alumni in Treasury.
Please, don't lose the track of what I am saying. By no means my point is that GS is a choir of angels. My point is: someone rushing to yell "GS's doing!!" every time something happens that they don't understand, or simply think it can be pinned on ever-so-popular blame target are not out to educate you, help you or inform you. They are out to earn cheap popularity, pump paranoia and capitalize on what is known in marketing as FUD: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty_and...
I am not a fan of misinformation. Neither do I subscribe to theory that misinforming readers can be forgiven if the end purpose is good. When I see another ignoramus BSing readers with claims like "darn algos move market using SOES" (dismantled years ago!!) I can't shrug and say "ah but his heart is in the right place."
Re: Wake up SEC!!!
Grym,
Agreed change is needed. What would be your first change to the Constitution? Then what? I think it is up to folks who know the system to provide guidance and help lay out a set of actionable points. I am not as well read as you on this subject (a few years your junior) so I appreciate your thoughts on where to begin. Would you demand ousting of your particular 'hangers on' in congress or install new players? Which is more reasonable and actionable? We must appreciate their 'power' has been bestowed and can be taken away.
Re: I think I'm going to start
Recommended Tesla readings:
"Tesla, Man Out of Time" by Margaret Cheney, 1983 ISBN 0-88029-419-1
"The Inventions, Researches and Writings of Nikola Tesla" by Thomas Commerford Martin, 2nd Ed., 1995, ISBN 0-88029-812-X casebound, 1-56619-8212-7 paperback
Much of his work has been lost but these works are as definitive as any I've read. Editions I own were published by Barnes & Noble.
Cheers.
Re: I think I'm going to start
Thank you very much Dr. S. I knew someone here would have some insight like this. I'll check them out.
Again, thank you. T3D
Tsunami
Water receding at Hilo Bay as I type.
Re: I think I'm going to start
t3d -
You're welcome. The Cheney book tells his personal story with less bias than the one you've just read written by his personal friend. It's an autobiography done fairly well.
The Martin book is aptly titled and pretty technical for those who wish to understand his thinking based on what's available including his lectures. Best for electrical engineers but I could grasp it and I'm not one.
Too bad much of his stuff was lost.
Edison, on the other hand, was a capitalist first, inventor second and used Tesla to his advantage even to electrocute Topsy, the rogue killer circus elephant with AC, in attempt to scare the public into using his DC.
See it here captured on film using an Edison camera by Edison for Edison:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Topsy_(elephant)
Cheers.
Re: On the afternoon market action - from yesterday
Thanks, Vad. Since I rarely trade minute to minute (short term is a week to me) I guess I missed your meaning completely.
I was in EUO and EFU this past week and made a little gain, but as soon as I read Bill's comments about Soros being short I got out. Too much clout and too unsure whether he is setting others up for a fall.
I'm pretty much sitting on the sidelines these days just waiting for some kind of longer, more definite trend to develop.
Martin Armstrong thrown in the hole ...
but his latest essay blasting goldman sachs (AND I MEAN BLASTING with a nuclear device) has just arrived and entitled 'Behind the Curtain II'
His guy's the real deal, not some journo at Rolling Stone Magazine with a flare for connecting the dots.
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projection...
Re: Wake up SEC!!!
Loannetter,
I may have said this here before, not sure, but here goes...
It seems to me that at all levels of government we are being stuck with spending on long term projects and programs which no individual would ever think of as wise.
People who do this are paid the same whether the ideas pan out or not. They see forming a committee to study the issue as doing real work. In my opinion, if they are not qualified to deal with a problem or to hire a competent person to do the job — they don't belong in office.
If my faucet leaks and it is beyond my ability to deal with it I don't hire an "expert" to call the plumber — just a waste of time and money.
This is in effect what happened after 9-11. Instead of relying on our intel to be funneled through the Central Intelligence Agency (established as the name implies), we added another layer. The shootings in Texas showed just how stupid and useless this was.
We need to hold people responsible — including Congress — NO Especially Congress!
I want to see our elected people limited to a max of eight years, forbidden to ever work as a lobbyist and have pay and benefits linked to their constituencies.
We can start with health care.
How do we take away power when it is all under the control of those we need to remove it from? It took eight years of war to take it from the British.
Re: I think I'm going to start
There was an interesting program within the last couple of years about him. It wa possibly on PBS, but may have been the History Channel and may be accessible yet.. I remember he nearly destroyed a large building with his wave making machine. Amazing man.
8.8 quake hits Chile. 200+ killed
http://bit.ly/dsPWOR
Tesla Today
Angels Don't Play This Haarp: Advances in Tesla Technology by Nick Begich
http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/
http://www.pbs.org/tesla/res/index.html
Cool stuff you don't find on Fox News.
Nick's work never stopped, just was redirected to the dark side.
Re: Tesla Today
Thanks Sedona and everyone.
My understanding is that Tesla had figured out how to provide free electricity to all without wires and JP Morgan crushed his ideas.
Thanks again.
Pound Could Collapse Within Weeks,
This is a prediction from Jim Rogers, not sure how much this would have credibility..
http://media.einnews.com/article.php?pid=73800
Re: Pound Could Collapse Within Weeks,
analyst65,
The Pound has had a tough 6-weeks and a tough 6-months.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$XBP
Re: Pound Could Collapse Within Weeks,
Thanks Bill, I am actually quite aware of the British Pound trend over the last few months but I have been watching and following the USD$ index trend and the Gold Bullion and their correlation with each other and the market moves more. It's just that I hear many don't pay much attention to what many analyst/billionaires like Jim Rogers say or do and don’t think they impact the market that much. That's why I was wondering how much weight or credibility his predictions would carry!!?
Goldman Searches For Silver
Most interesting that someone at the GS head office in NY, most likely a senior level employee considering the late night activity, would be searching the web for buying silver...
"Operating a website requires monitoring to make sure there are no problems but doing so can uncover very interesting nuggets of information. For example, on 24 February 2010 at 11:15 EST in the evening someone at Goldman Sachs Company in the main NYC office found RunToGold through Google by searching for the phrase ‘buying silver‘.
What could Goldman Sachs know about the silver market, what might be being discussed around the water cooler and how might Chairman Gensler’s influence with his old cronies play into this?"
http://tinyurl.com/y94bm3r
"Details Emerge for Greece Finance Plan"
http://bit.ly/aVCuTk
"A plan to bail out Greece that could total as much as €30 billion is now being considered by German and French officials, according to a person familiar with the situation.
The plan would call for the sale of debt to French and German entities, likely state-owned banks, as well as the public markets, this person said."
TSUNAMI PARTY
ALOHA !!
What was touted to be a tidal wave ended up being a tidal surge of rather uneventful proportions compared to the source of destruction, the earthquake in Chile, which was rather obscured and forgotten today in the media.
Nobody died here in Hilo or if I may be more specific here in Kalapana and Kaimu. Sirens went off for the "tsunami zone", which is an area about a mile away from where we live. Anyone who lives in Hawaii knows that a mile or two inland can mean very high elevations, and so we live around 350ft above sea level. Looking at photos of Hawaii, especially the Big Island you can see 1000 ft cliffs a few football fields from the coast. We never were in any danger and we never took any evasive actions as being farmers we are always well stocked with food, water, gas, generators and the likes. I have always found that the best time to prepare for an emergency is when there is none.
My wife and I ended up at some friends house up the road sitting on their deck around 10:30am watching the TV news flashes while we scanned the horizon with our binoculars hoping to catch a glimpse of the 11:05am train. In the meantime while we waited we enjoyed some party snacks and beverages of sorts. The entire time the Pacific Ocean was like a large lake. All we saw were a few whales! We gave up and the "tsunami party" broke off at noon as we saw no need to scan the horizon for a ghost event, besides we all had work to do.
About the only thing that went down here was my internet service due to some power disconnect upstream in Hilo. I have come to accept that I just cannot rely on quality internet service here where I live. There are just too few people here to make internet service competitive.
So the oceanic tsunami we were warned of never materialized to the extent most predicted, however the opposite is true of the "financial tsunami" that is never ending, even though we were promised it wouldn't be by the vast army of economic experts employed at government and central banks.
Once again ... the best time to prepare for an emergency is when there is none.
We fielded many calls and e-mails from friends, relatives, business associates and bloggers from all over the USA, Canada, Europe and Australia and New Zealand during the day so we appreciate your concerns. Thank you and MAHALO NUI LOA!!
Re: TSUNAMI PARTY
Chile earthquake halted production at two major mines in the world's top copper supplier.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61Q23320100228
THE CHIMP IS BACK
ALOHA!!
Last year I ran commentary here and other places in the financial cybersphere about how Americans would be better to just elect a CHIMP as President and let him throw darts at a "dartboard of decisions"(half the dartboard is YES and the other half NO and any throws off the board is NO). We would save a vast sum of money as he would only expect bananas as payment for services rendered and he would not need to travel on Air Force One at all to meet other World leaders since a CHIMP cannot speak English or Chinese. Since language skills are lacking the CHIMP is impervious to lobbyist and special interests and above all his own cabinet. He is also impervious to racial slurs and Oprah appearances. Just hand him a dart and a banana and stand back ...
Well, it seems I am not far off the mark according to the new Rasmussen Report that MISH posted where half of US voters interviewed now think we could replace the entire US Congress with random selections from a telephone book.
LINK: http://tinyurl.com/y87ve88
This poll is very embarrassing for the Gang of 535 and the US President and both of the political party MONOPOLY now in control of our destiny. It speaks volumes to a real desire for a viable third party and an end to the "lesser evil" mentality. We American voters have to realize there is no "lesser", there never was, its always just been "evil"!
AL CARRY TRADE
ALOHA !!
Another carry trade unwinding ...
Aluminum(Al) stocks at the LME are anything but "slowmo" as it seems the inventories rose dramatically right in the heat of the banking crisis. Rising from the 1mil level in mid 2008 to 4.5mil one year later, however the LME aluminum stocks have stayed at the 4.5mil range bound (record highs)for a year now without any major moves up or down. While the LME stocks remain steady at the 4.5mil range over the past year the spot price has been moving upward over the past year from $0.60 to $0.94/lb, a 60% rise.
What's next a re-weighting of the GSCI like what happened with oil in 2005? Plenty of oil tankers sitting around outside various Asian ports and as I recall I believe GS has an interest in some tank farms.
Perhaps the "re-weighting" in the aluminum contango is on the horizon, starting April 1st. A report from the LME where that burdensome "storage cost factor" comes into play. The LME plans to raise such costs on all metals but they are singling out aluminum in particular. So the LME is well aware of the arbitrage ... the "aluminum carry trade". Look for some unwinding in March.
From: LME Rent Increases Could Prompt Flood of Metal Taken off Market
by stuart on February 12, 2010
"The size and timing of the rises, to take effect from April 1, will have the biggest impact on aluminum which has seen a massive stock and sale play over the last year. Because the contango on aluminum has been high, typically $32/ton over 3 months and $100/ton over 12 months traders and banks have sold excess production forward on the exchange at a premium over spot. From that premium they have paid storage, insurance and financed the deal at historically low interest rates, after which the balance is profit. So attractive has the deal been that some 3.5 million tons of the 4.56 million tons of aluminum on the LME is tied up in such deals. The new rates will push the average cost of storage up to $32/ton over 3 months and $140/ton over 12 months making the future for such deals highly questionable."END
LINK: http://tinyurl.com/yd4ua6d
Wal-Mart Changing its Spots?
The following is a reaction to a recent Wash Post story about Wal-Mart's efforts to influence change in China (which is where most of the stuff they sell is made).
How Sincere is Wal-Mart's Demand that Chinese Suppliers Meet Labor and Environmental Standards?
Re: Martin Armstrong thrown in the hole ...
Very interesting read doc. I will take this read at face value, if naught else because Armstrong is similarly adamant and calling for the same changes to policy that Bill is here.
If I take Armstrong's word at face value then I am forced to admit and apply the following:
1. Goldman Sachs are a bunch of screws up who have destroyed wealth for a generation in order to obtain short term goals, apparently with the help, or at least without the hindrance, of Armstrong's competent research.
2. No government entity can be expected to come to the aid of the American people. Subsequently wealth will continue to be destroyed by the adulterated scheming and incompetence of various regulatory authorities and Congress.
3. No manipulation can swing a market from long to short (Armstrong uses an example to illustrate this concept). Manipulative influence can be applied to extend or push the bear/bull cycle - I think Armstrong was suggesting this was the case with the oil market. If that be the case, then JP Morgan et al. cannot flip the switch and pressure gold into a bear phase even if they wanted to.
Logically this implies that the NY club will do their utmost to profit from the Gold market's bull phase, be it shaking out weak hands or overextending the market cycle to screw even the most "competent" traders, which apparently included Warren Buffet at the oil peak in 2008 (Armstrong provides this example).
4. Buffet and Soros appear to have had legends created to feed the public. Armstrong points out occasions where these gentlemen have lost billions, yet I for one have never heard of it in the popular media. Both traders appear to have been involved in dubious transactions to boot, which I've never heard of. (see buffet's silver holdings, p.19).
5. Armstrong apparently appears to be on the mark with his economic cycle model. If this be the case, then his predictions for a down cycle phase in housing until 2033 should be of concern to US investors and homeowners. This in turn implies that wealth generation in the market will be hampered, if mum & pop investor distrust is maintained for a generation (combine 401k losses with housing investment losses).
An intellectual exercise that is to be taken with a grain a salt, but a convincing read IMO and not something that provides me with a great deal of encouragement for the future. The discussion on the disastrous efforts by the club to profit in Russia (p. 17/18) make me think of the ganging up on the Euro now. What can (and may well) go wrong with this "career making" trade being presently talked up?
p.s. If his allegations of collusion and corruption between the NY club, the SEC and the Judiciary have merit then there is no longer a certain future for the United States. No swapping electoral parties or bringing in new blood to Congress is going to reverse the endemic corruption alluded to by the author. Rioting and bloodshed have permitted regime change to a certain extent in Latin America, Russia etc, but its clear that vested interests aren't going to roll over and die through any normal electoral process.
Re: Martin Armstrong thrown in the hole ...
Les -
Thanks for the summation. Major themes found within his numerous essays from prison as he sings like the bird to spare his life: (1) Historic perspective on debauching currencies, especially the Roman Empire (he's a numismatic expert); (2) His experiences advising sovereign nations on how to manage currency manipulations in today's floating currency system and how it over-rides all tradition views on economics (Milton Freidman told him he uniquely embodied his free market theories in action); (3) The NY Club abuse and history of the big trading desks; (4) Wave theory application (business cycles, like all things in nature, exist as fact, and can be understood); (5) Gold is going to $5,000 on inflation, not deflation; (6) Corruption in the U.S. gov't, especially the CFTC and the Judicial system as controlled for the most part by the Fed (details are remarkable as applied to him and his business); (7) His innocence and false imprisonment.
Did you know he once outwitted the commodities market to unload Aristotle Onasis' corner on platinum (40% of the market) in the mid-80's? He saved Onasis' ass unlike the Hunt Bros. whipeout in their famous silver corner. I really want to believe he cannot make this stuff up with the level of detail he provides and his historical perspective. I wholeheartedly believe that real estate has just peaked and will decline for decades to come having been in CRE for more than 25 years and recognizing the pricing abuses. Decline in personal consumption won't allow for an appreciative rebound in housing or CRE. I'm afraid no one will heed this guy until he's murdered in jail and becomes a martyr. He's already been badly beaten. He needs to be recognized by the public to be spared, it seems.
Armstrong shows truth can be stranger than fiction.
Re: Martin Armstrong thrown in the hole ...
Thanks guys, especially to Les for his summation of the Armstrong paper.
I don't know about Armstrong's life or credibility, but I do understand that he is a premier trend and cycles analyst, and hence his views would not be too far out of alignment with mine. He takes on certain parties who he claims, like I do, are screwing with the natural cycles in order to feed their greed. I'm not happy about it either.
Will anything be done about it? I think as little as the authorities can possibly manage to permit us that luxury. Meanwhile the classes feed off the masses and their appetite is humungous. They want it all.
So, I think it's up to us to do something about it. In time, as we attack the personal reputations of these bandits, enough of the public will come to see the truth in what we are saying, and there will be so little pickings for their side.
The WIR is up and now I'm off to the pub -- a free man in many ways.
Platinum Group Metals - PLG on AMEX; PTM on TSX
In the year since I had last met PLG, the price of platinum has doubled. As a result, senior platinum producers are swinging from loss to profit. In the interim, PLG has updated the feasibility study on its 8M oz. flagship deposit, and is very near securing title transfers which position the company for sale, joint venture, or capital-raising for production.
Per PLG's Kris Begic, his is one of only two remaining independent platinum juniors with large-scale, near-surface deposits in the compact Western Bushveld region of S. Africa -- home to 70% of the world's platinum. The 4 Bushveld senior platinum producers work aging, deep and therefore high-cost reserves. An acquiring senior could process PLG's ore in their existing facilities, thus increasing their profitability. (Begic pegs the global platinum market at 6M oz., meaning that PLG's deposit equates to roughly one year of global production.)
Since last year, PLG has secured exploration deals with a Japanese company, and held discussions with other Asian interests. Thus, PLG has developed sale, JV, and hedging options beyond the 4 producers established in the Bushveld. Among possible outcomes is a sale of the flagship deposit, while taking back a net smelter royalty, and retaining the exploration properties.
This could position PLG to become the first platinum royalty company. Given platinum by-product in Ontario and Russia (as well as Magma Metals' recent Ontario discovery) the time may be right for a platinum royalty play.
Another consideration is PLG's status as the only pure-play platinum company listed in the US and thus easily accessible to US retail investors (avg AMEX volume 400K shares). Also, power problems could well return to S. Africa, once again causing platinum prices to spike.
For all these reasons, I believe the company now bears very close watching.
FD: No current position
DYODD
Re: Martin Armstrong thrown in the hole ...
Les,
I certainly agree with this comment:
"2. No government entity can be expected to come to the aid of the American people. Subsequently wealth will continue to be destroyed by the adulterated scheming and incompetence of various regulatory authorities and Congress."
Any "aid of the American people" from the government would only come at greatly increased cost to... The American People — since all government funds are derived from us. I can't think of any really helpful government solutions in my lifetime — the less the do the better I feel.
I question this point, however...
"3. No manipulation can swing a market from long to short (Armstrong uses an example to illustrate this concept). Manipulative influence can be applied to extend or push the bear/bull cycle - I think Armstrong was suggesting this was the case with the oil market. If that be the case, then JP Morgan et al. cannot flip the switch and pressure gold into a bear phase even if they wanted to."
If you are talking day trading, this may be so, but in only slightly longer time frames I wouldn't count on it.
The House makes the rules. Just as they allowed the toxic assets to be valued by the bankers, banned shorting of selected banks last year, ignored the whistle-blower warnings of Madoff, and allowed crap to be AAA rated — they can do things as yet undreamed of by even the most cynical such as I.
I am about half way through "The New Dealer's WAr," by Thomas Fleming and finding out there is little to limit a President or Congress when they choose to be creative. They simply make the untried into the law of the land. If it is declared unconstitutional later they simply dump it and try something else. Making private gold ownership for example.
Also, even though he sounds like he's thought this out quite well, I would be wary of taking any single individual's opinion at face value. (Including mine;-)
Grym
Let's look at the burning forest shall we? 20 yr Nasdaq chart
There are prob a few interesting additional charts i could have added below, like U.S Debt, money supply, unemployment, etc. But my main question is, have we seen the peak of the innovation bell curve for a while?
http://chart.ly/f4tpyw
Re: Tesla Today
Presenter: Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen April 28, 1997 8:45 AM EDT
DoD News Briefing: Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen
Q: Let me ask you specifically about last week's scare here in Washington, and what we might have learned from how prepared we are to deal with that (inaudible), at B'nai Brith.
A: Well, it points out the nature of the threat. It turned out to be a false threat under the circumstances. But as we've learned in the intelligence community, we had something called -- and we have James Woolsey here to perhaps even address this question about phantom moles. The mere fear that there is a mole within an agency can set off a chain reaction and a hunt for that particular mole which can paralyze the agency for weeks and months and years even, in a search. The same thing is true about just the false scare of a threat of using some kind of a chemical weapon or a biological one. There are some reports, for example, that some countries have been trying to construct something like an Ebola Virus, and that would be a very dangerous phenomenon, to say the least. Alvin Toeffler has written about this in terms of some scientists in their laboratories trying to devise certain types of pathogens that would be ethnic specific so that they could just eliminate certain ethnic groups and races; and others are designing some sort of engineering, some sort of insects that can destroy specific crops. Others are engaging even in an eco- type of terrorism whereby they can alter the climate, set off earthquakes, volcanoes remotely through the use of electromagnetic waves.'
February 5th, 2010
http://tinyurl.com/ygf8ser
To (scientist),
You have put your finger directly on the remaining problem.
A solution to the world energy crisis is a solution to a PHYSICS problem, NOT to an electrical engineering problem!
With an MS in nuclear engineering, I have enough basic physics knowledge to conceptually work out many or most of the major energy-from-the-vacuum (EFTV) mechanisms. So from a "concepts" view, we have been able to explain most of the working free energy from the vacuum systems uncovered by various inventors. We worked with several such successful inventors, notably with Sweet (free energy and antigravity) and with Bedini (use of negative energy and Dirac Sea vacuum pulsing). With these decades of very hard work under my belt, I could now work with a proper team of trained physicists (say, seven or eight) who have all the pertinent mathematical disciplines required, and I could give them the concepts and mechanisms to start with which must be now expressed in the mathematical physics of asymmetric systems -- and which therefore must severely correct the sadly flawed and mutilated old deliberately symmetrized electrical engineering model. This physics team must contain one or more persons proficient in each area such as group theory, quantum mechanics, quantum electrodynamics, quantum vacuum theory, quantum field theory, gauge field theory, higher group symmetry electrodynamics models (such as quaternion electrodynamics, O(3) electrodynamics, etc.). At least a couple of physicists proficient in foundations of physics are also necessary, in my opinion, and a couple must be proficient in the modern nanocrystalline area also in order to encompass the rigorously proven work of Klimov et al., with EFTV nanocrystalline tiny solar cell systems producing from 200% to 700% coefficient of performance (COP), and rigorously and independently validated by two great national laboratories (LANL and NREL).
The end result of the efforts of the suggested physics team will then be a developed mathematical theory of the "energy from the vacuum" area. It will produce the mathematical physics model(s) for ASYMMETRIC electrical power systems, and not just the present standard and totally crippled SYMMETRICAL electrical power systems produced and modeled by our electrical engineers because of the deliberate symmetrization of the original Heaviside vector equations by Lorentz in 1892, as elicited by J. P. Morgan.
The physics team would thus rigorously correct the standard EE theory, which presently contains some 12 major falsities and which is the real problem that has generated the world energy crisis (see my paper sent to the National Science Foundation, and the letter of reply from that agency). Again, just before the birth of EE itself, the intended Heaviside model was intentionally crippled in 1892 and again restricted in 1900 by Lorentz, at the elicitation of the infamous J. P. Morgan, specifically to provide a highly crippled and mutilated "electrical engineering" (just being planned to set up and teach in the universities) that would never allow the future electrical engineers to think, design, build, and deploy "energy freely from the active medium" overunity systems already discovered by Nikola Tesla. See T. W. Barrett's rigorous proof that some of Tesla's actual patented circuits did produce just such excess energy from the active vacuum, and Tesla could thus have given the world free energy from the vacuum as early as 1890. The paper is T. W. Barrett, "Tesla's Nonlinear Oscillator-Shuttle-Circuit (OSC) Theory," Annales de la Fondation Louis de Broglie, 16(1), 1991, p. 23-41. Barrett shows that EM expressed in quaternions allows shuttling and storage of potentials in circuits, and also allows additional EM functioning of a circuit that a conventional EM analysis cannot reveal. He shows that Tesla's patented circuits did exactly this shuttling function. [The paper is carried on the www.cheniere.org website at internet link http://www.cheniere.org/references/TeslaOSC.pdf. ]
So we have 40 years of very arduous work that has slowly made substantial conceptual progress, that now we very much need to transfer to a proper physics team, with very skilled physicists who are also vitally interested in solving the world energy crisis quickly and forever, and doing some absolutely new physics applications.
Finally, we have also rediscovered Dirac's knowledge (known to him as early as 1930) of exactly how to directly engineer physical reality itself, at will! Astoundingly, there are concrete and proven examples in both science and biology today such as Kanzius' proven watergas process, his proven cancer cure, the reversal and "unhappening" of diseases by a tiny little girl with mind and body of an 11-year old infant but actually 16 years old, and a tiny little jellyfish Turritopsis nutricula that became immortal against death by aging circa 1990, but everyone is searching for a BIOLOGY mechanism when in fact it is a Dirac sea vacuum tickling method already known to Dirac as early as 1930. This Dirac method deliberately uses and manipulates negative energy (which is in both Schrodinger's work and Dirac's original "theory of everything") and negative probabilities to do the direct engineering of any physical "thing" or physical process. I call it "precursor" engineering since one is directly engineering the ongoing fierce "virtual particle bubbling state interactions" (the "precursor") that continually create and sustain any observable physical thing. This science has been secretly developed by the Russians, but until recently it has been ruthlessly confined to their highly secret superweapons project. Recently they have released the scenar-cosmodic little automated hand-held system which will directly heal diseases, and today Soviet doctors are in fact treating their patients with these devices, using the Dirac Sea tickling method to manipulate negative energy and negative probability, and "unhappen" the specific disease or disorder directly. The Russian doctors are experiencing very good results with this methodology.
Another process is the "cold molding" process that the Soviets have used for decades to mold thick titanium submarine hulls at room temperature, by "tickling" the local vacuum of the titanium so that it contains a lattice-bond-unhappening pattern of negative energy. This "unhappens" the lattice bonds, which simply disappear, so that the titanium metal becomes a liquid at room temperature! Pour it in the molds and wait till the emptied Dirac sea holes are filled with electrons again, and the bonds are automatically restored so that the titanium again becomes a solid -- all at room temperature.
So this same team should also then be prepared to produce immortality against death by ageing (as stated, a tiny little jellyfish has already done it circa 1990, and has become immortal against death by ageing and has thus spread from the Caribbean Ocean through all the oceans of the world. This is now PROVEN EXPERIMENTALLY in biology, printed in the leading biology texts, and known and accepted in biology. The biologists have not the foggiest clue to the mechanism involved, but are trying to find some cellular process. Instead, it is Dirac's physics "tickling of the Dirac sea" method. that provides the mechanism.
Note that negative energy was ruthlessly and viciously ripped out of Dirac's theory in 1934, one year after he and Schrodinger were jointly awarded the Nobel Prize. This deliberate and violent mutilation of physics had nothing to do with science. It was designed to prevent our physicists from studying this negative energy application for directly engineering physical reality, and thus achieving the ability to do so. Particularly note that a very strong effort to restore this improperly "ripped out" negative energy is ongoing in physics, spearheaded by Dr. Daniel Solomon, Dean of the College of Physical and Mathematical Sciences at North Carolina State University.
There are other examples; and a friend of mine (John Bedini) has been directly using negative energy and Dirac sea pulsing for more than 30 years on the laboratory bench and in many of his free energy systems.
If this scientific group can be established, I believe it can very shortly accomplish precursor engineering of physical reality, and thus a leap forward in physics of at least 1,000 years!
Very best wishes,
Tom B.
NEVADA POLITICIANS EXTORT MINERS
Extortion: " the act or practice of extorting especially money or other property; especially : the offense committed by an official engaging in such practice"
I thought this was illegal?
From MineWeb
RENO, NV -
Nevada gold miners have reportedly agreed to make a deal with the Nevada Legislature to pay from $75 million to $100 million to the state
.
Assembly Majority Leader John Oceguera, D-Las Vegas, told the news media that the deal would involve mainly fees with a little from pre-payment of net proceeds of mines taxes.
State Budget Director Andrew Clinger told the Las Vegas Review Journal that if miners agree to pay $60 million in additional taxes, Gov. Jim Gibbons would withdraw his proposal to change and cap state mining tax deductions.
Sen. Dean Rhoads, R-Tuscarora, told the Review Journal mining company executives are willing to give the state $30 million to $40 million to help with the $900 million state budget deficit. He said mining is also willing to pay $60 million more to the state when they make their net proceeds of mines payments on March 1.
However, Nevada miners are still facing an initiative process that seeks to remove mining taxation limits from the state’s constitution.
Re: Martin Armstrong thrown in the hole ...
Dr Strangelove, to your:
"I wholeheartedly believe that real estate has just peaked and will decline for decades to come having been in CRE for more than 25 years and recognizing the pricing abuses. Decline in personal consumption won't allow for an appreciative rebound in housing or CRE."
Since you have been at this apparently longer than I, and my focus is the residential grindstone, did you feel the run up in property valuations as obscene, suspect and unsustainable at the time? Oh for a little hindsight?
I acknowledge we have admired each other from a healthy distance so your commercial observations are heard if not fully appreciated. I am now taking Grym's medicine and reading up on history, just started Thomas L. Freidman's "The World is Flat" to round out my corporate inculcation.
Re: Pound Could Collapse Within Weeks,
I feel like these guys are making these crazy prognostications over and over again until one of them sticks so that they can say they were the ones that called it. I'll believe it when I see it.
Re: Martin Armstrong thrown in the hole ...
Hi Grym, permit me to paste Armstrong's words verbatum:
It is impossible to compel any market
move in the opposite direction of the trend
The presumption that anyone can turn a bull
market into a bear market or in reverse, is
just absurd. Look at Japan. At the peak of
Nekkei 225 in December 1989, the Japanese
Postal Savings Fund was the largest pool of
money in the world - about $1.5 trillion. T
vast amount of money was employed by the go
ernment of Japan to manipulate the markets.
They tried desperately to support the NEKKE
and failed. They used the money to bailout
banks and to try to further manipulate the
economy and the stock market, they lowered
interest rates to about 0.1%. Even that had
only the effect of sending capital out of t
economy to earn 6-7% rates of interest in t
United States creating the famous Yen Carry
Trade.
Every effort by the Japanese Government
was made to manipulate the market and the
economy. That failed completely creating vtf
most people now call the "Los t Decade." (p.51)
This is of course what the US Fed and authorities are now desperately attempting here in the US. Alter the course of the economy and the market from its normal cycle. As remarked earlier in reference to extending a long or short trend, they have done everything possible to keep the bull market running and the good times rolling, but we are now witness to the results of their efforts.
I didn't make it clear before, but Armstrong accuses Goldman Sachs of stealing his proprietary research and having him railroaded by the SEC on false charges due to his stubborn refusal to go along with the club's schemes. He apparently was active and vocal in warning his clients to take defensive action against the efforts of this club (a small nucleus of Wall St. traders). He was obviously not appreciated for his efforts.
Prudential may bid $35 Billion for AIG's AIA unit
http://www.reuters.com/article/idCNLDE61R0AT201002...
Probably a positive for the markets. That's one big transaction if it goes through.
Re: Pound Could Collapse Within Weeks, or NOT!
2nd half of the prediction is "or could NOT collapse within weeks" .... LOL
Re: Martin Armstrong thrown in the hole ...
Loannetter,
I read both his "The World is Flat" and "The Lexus and the Olive Tree", I'll be interested in your opinion and hold mine until then.
Grym
Re: Tesla Today
Thanks MtnGntx, this stretches my mind even though I do not have the ability to comprehend. What I do pick is that Tesla may have had one of the greatest minds there ever was in his field. The system, aka the elite, crushed his ideas for good because it would eliminate their profit motive. I firmly think that the drug industry does not want a cure for cancer, they want to put you on a drug for the rest of your life for profit motive.
I use scenar. I have a Denas scenar device and the Tennant Biomodulator Plus. Both of these devices help me manage pain and in some cases eliminate pain.
Thanks MtnGntx for your posts and everyone's posts. Tesla is a fascinating individual and the world lost out. Let's hope that such a scientific group does indeed become established.
Edit: If you have cuts or open wounds, although somewhat discomforting, running scenar will cause these injuries to heal in a incredibly short period of time. I have done this at least three times myself.
Now if only I could get it to heal torn meniscus. After having arthroscopic knee surgery the doctor said I would be up and about in two weeks. What a joke, nine months later if I try almost any physical activity it feels like someone is sticking a knife in my knee with constant pain for days. My tennis is done and most all other activity. The moral is, I suppose, is do not do knee operations, I was at least 90% better before than after the operation. A big mistake. Sorry to rant.
Re: Martin Armstrong thrown in the hole ...
Les,
I read his "Behind the Curtain" (well, rather quickly) and I concur with the general idea and see Japan as a good example. I'm just remembering how quickly my huge gains in SKF evaporated when the shorting of banks ban was sprung on us.
As for the present Fed plan which Bernanke outline in 2002 — I have strong doubts he can pull it off and am holding a pretty good chunk of TLT, Zeros and considering going back into WHOSX which did well for me from fall 2008 to spring 2009. I should add that I am never averse to cutting and running if the conventional wisdom of inflation comes to pass.
This article from John Mauldin echoes what A. Gary Shilling, "How to Survive and Thrive in the Coming Wave of Deflation" and Forbes commentator, Van Hoisington (WHOSX )and several others have been sticking to.
http://tiny.cc/FclVG
Re: Tesla Today
From http://www.cheniere.org/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6EnDBjCjBw
Re: Martin Armstrong thrown in the hole ...
loannetter -
"did you feel the run up in property valuations as obscene, suspect and unsustainable at the time? Oh for a little hindsight?"
I certainly did consider valuations unsustainable but not necessarily obscene or suspect because traditional deals were/are structured around good credit and long-term contractual leases. Fantasy-based condo and subdivision absorptions and speculative commercial rents were common resulting in obscene and suspect valuations on many projects for those slick types willing to risk it and rapidly expand portfolios before the market turned. Many banks were ready and willing for the most part and the developers using this type of speculation were usually the ones adept with OPM and 1031 Exchange games. Appraisers use short term historic data which is a big problem as the cap rates don't reflect secular risk and property owners know how to structure leases to only go up. This is similar to AAA ratings on toxic debt by the rating agencies but the appraisers are highly fragmented with weak representation and oversight.
Thinking back, key on my radar were:
-Disregard of the business cycle in DCF models for underwriting;
-Bank deregulation starting with Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act in 1999 under Clinton;
-WSJ (pre Murdoch) op-ed page's decade-long ominous warnings of the Fannie/Freddie runnaway train;
-Low official CPI not jibing with reality;
-Housing appreciation outpacing personal income growth and the use of higher leverage and refi craze for over a decade as not sustainable.
So the unsustainable aspect became more obvious over time for me but I had no idea when it would crash.
In business, the prevailing attitude was leverage up while you can before the banks tighten. Well, the banks never tightened thanks to Greenspan. Smart money, and they were few and far between, maintained a strict equity position of at least 25% knowing that it was coming and had the wisdom to avoid overleverage no matter what others were doing. Only now do the games begin as some are cherry picking to buy quality debt through a line of credit (not counted in bank reserves) with the same bank in anticipation of default. But this is an old boys club strategy available to the few. I believe CRE and housing are going much lower based on Martin Armstrong's cycle model.
I eventually focused on the Fed problem which led me to Bill Cara and his team and kaimu for their trading and monetary and sovereign debt wisdom to hone my trading skills and stay attuned to the macro economic issues.
As my father used to say, "There's nothing wrong with the feudal system so long as you're the lord."
Cheers.
Was that an awesome game or what
!
Re: Tesla Today
Some estimated 6000+ patents currently actively repressed by the mafia-in-power (CIA/Military Industrial Complex/ Banking interests) here in the US that relate directly or indirectly to these augmented physics concepts....Originally repressed by bankers for social control purposes, they continue to be placed out of reach for "national security" issues (read social control purposes again...and ultimately by these same banking interests). Laughable really, but unfortunately the joke is on most of humanity. These guys are really wearing out their welcome, aren't they?
But they havent just repressed the technology; they have lied, murdered, bribed, stolen and extorted to keep it out of reach, all in the name of the US citizenry. They have literally re-written history while developing it on their own and implementing it in black-ops schemas and the "secret space program," all the while continuing to hold the masses in a relative dark age.
All of this is slowly, inexorably coming to an end. The current economic collapse leaves them without the resources and tools necessary to continue to actively repress it. Now that the ponzi schemes have been revealed,Russia and China are through playing by the old western-mediated, petro-dollar-soaked rules. Those knowledgeable in India, and some of the other 3rd world nations are literally up in arms over the continued repression of these world-changing, reality-changing, humanity-changing capabilities and will not continue to abide by old agreements of secrecy any longer. The regime of our Washington cabal is in shambles and they are desparately fighting to hold onto control in a world that no longer has a use for them. I wish they would grow the heck up.
Much of the current saber rattling by Washington toward China and Japan are directly related to these issues. China, with Japan's support, is surreptitiously going forward with the development and production of the first line of these "impossible" energy devices meant for open utilization. The problem, as they see it, is how to bring this technology online in a way that does not disrupt or further destabilize geopolitical and geoeconomic interests. They have decided to focus on desalinization plants... produced on an assembly line and implemented internationally. They believe that by creating a product, arid and livable land where none existed before, they can breath life into the world economy at a rate that offsets the dismantling of the old regime's anachronistic combustion=based economy.
Of course, Washington's old guard is apoplectic with damnation of this insubordination... and like any two year old whose favorite toy is forcibly taken away, they are screaming bloody-f-ing murder and threatening to bring the entire planet to its knees by creating an armageddon scenario of war, destruction, and pestilence if they do not continue to have it their way... the very tangible picture of devastated Haiti comes to mind.... But, fortunately, the rest of the planet is not waivering in their resolve to move beyond this epoch of human history. The behind-the-scenes scurrying and negotiating currently taking place in the halls of power across the planet in regard to these circumstances is almost indescribable in terms of human historical precedent. I feel certain that related announcements and pronouncements will be forthcoming in the relatively near future.
The first time I saw one of the Russian cosmo-spheres (anti-gravity platform in production and use since at least the early 60s) in action I was brought to tears. For me, it represented a transcendent experience of overwhelming hope for humanity. Believe me naysayers, reality is much, much grander and more beautiful than you currently have the courage to imagine.
Sorry about your surgery, Telestar3D... you might look into ormus. I'll save my observations on the medical cabal and monopoly for another day.
Happy trading.
Re: Tesla Today
I'm not greedy. I'm still waiting for that 100 mile per gallon carburator that the "BIG 3" along with Jersey Standard has surpressed since the 1950's. I remember the Ready Kilowatt ads from my youth that promised "Nuclear power. Electricity to cheap to meter."
Re: Was that an awesome game or what
One for the history books.
Favorite comment at the bar -- by an American:
"NBC says the goal is under review!" -- and he was serious!
Next favorite: "Typical Canadians, all they do is bring us are cold fronts."
Third favorite: (After the US took the goalie out) "Aw common Canada, play fair, take your goalie out too".
Final one: "You're buying the drinks."
What a bunch of wussies.
Great game though.
More on the healthcare storm....from Massachusetts
http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/art...
Re: Was that an awesome game or what
Wish they could play a rubber match for best of three....great games!
Even though he put the dagger in the U.S. I'm glad Sid is a Penguin.....hopefully the start of the march towards another Cup!
Re: Was that an awesome game or what
Congrats Canada. Your Pros were better than our Pros. I still think the Olympic Flame looks like the result of a Richter 8 under the Alyeska pipeline...
Mmmmhhhhh.....
"Btw, why is the world so caught up with liars and cheaters?"
Nothing really new here I think. News just gets out much faster and from more sources in the internet age, so history can be written quicker. Before you had to wait for the historians to research and put the pieces together.
Re: Tesla Today
Pardon me, MtnGntx but your allusion is a little thick for me. What does:
"6000+ patents currently actively repressed by the mafia-in-power ...Originally repressed by bankers for social control purposes..."
Actually mean in 5th grade American? And why does the powerbase need to suppress patents that would bring new concepts to market? Oh, lemme guess...it threatens their power base to have too many people know what they are up to and have better ideas?
One post too many
ignore
Playing Chop Chop
The MHFT, despite concerns one might have over what he is selling, does nonetheless provide some focus like Bill and keeps the daily blog commentary easily digestible in one topic bites. He last made me think about a trade in TBT in early Feb, which turned out to have some merit:
http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-cara%E2%80%9...
His most recent blog entry speaks of choppy range bound trading to potentially frustrate us in coming months:
http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/Today_s_Diary_En...
I've certainly noticed with Vad the setups becoming less and less as volatility has weakened in recent weeks. So I was wondering about some short term, multi session plays, using Vad's setups in order to capture some of the gapping up and potential range bound movement, which if worse comes to worse, we may be forced to work with in order to earn our bread and butter. See TBT chart attached in hourly time frame. Note horizontal line showing an area of support. FWIW.