Morning Call [7:55am ET] The Davos Conference was summed up nicely by News Corp’s sister companies, The Times and Wall St Journal, in stating: (i) bankers don’t get it, and (ii) how low can the Dollar go to continue flooding US taxpayer money into emerging economies in the hopeful pursuit of ‘Monkey See, Monkey Do’?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB4000142405274870410720457503901397884223...
Can you imagine if headliners at the so-called World Economic Forum [I call it the Congregation of Shills and Charlatans] actually included Bernanke, Geithner and Paulson? Switzerland would have been caught in a time warp, oblivious to what’s gone on since the summer of 2007 -- kind of like Washington and Wall Street today.
But no, the media in Davos had it right: the nuclear explosion in the global economy caused by a conflict of interest burdened financial system was passed off as little more than a banker’s burp following a two martini lunch. Bankers don’t get it because they have no vested interest in getting it. Doing ‘God’s work’ is going to pay their leader one tenth of a billion dollar bonus this year. So why would he or any of his friends and colleagues get it? Money is, after all, the reason these people are bankers.
Money makes the world go round is a famous proverb. Trust Bernanke, Geithner and Paulson to give real meaning to the expression. First they drop the cost of money to zero, then help move it to the less dysfunctional emerging economies to pump up shares prices (ergo: wealth) there, so that those people (ergo: sovereign wealth funds) will invest in our securities, making our banks and businesses look stronger, and hence our people (aka to a banker as monkeys) will bid our prices higher, getting us out of our mess. Some plan.
Actually, it’s working. The same handlers who thoroughly abused the conflicts of interest in the system are still in place to ensure the status quo. And they will survive the 2006-2007 moonshot too as long as the landing is a soft one. After all, this is not Paris of the late 1700’s; there are no inalienable rights of the owners of capital, the people who worked hard to earn it. We the People may be smarter but, looking around, I can say 2010 is no Age of Enlightenment. I can see that it is still a case of ‘monkey see; monkey do’ with the same owners running the circus.
All is not lost, however. We are, as a society, getting closer to understanding the fact that “those people” have interests that differ from us. Most of us can now see that it is only through cheating and lies and front-running of insider information that is keeping the banksters in place, the Goldman Sachs traders winning 99 sessions in 100, all the time referring to themselves as “Great Economists” and “Capital C Bankers” or simply “Great Americans”.
Why do I have hope that all this will change? It’s because, as a trader of capital markets, I understand cycles, and I know we have reached an extreme in the current one, soon to be reversed by natural law. Ecclesiastes 3 is my guide.
Ecclesiastes 3 (King James Version)
(1) To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
(2) A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted;
(3) A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up;
(4) A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance;
(5) A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;
(6) A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
(7) A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak;
(8) A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.
(9) What profit hath he that worketh in that wherein he laboureth?
(10) I have seen the travail, which God hath given to the sons of men to be exercised in it.
(11) He hath made every thing beautiful in his time: also he hath set the world in their heart, so that no man can find out the work that God maketh from the beginning to the end.
(12) I know that there is no good in them, but for a man to rejoice, and to do good in his life.
(13) And also that every man should eat and drink, and enjoy the good of all his labour, it is the gift of God.
(14) I know that, whatsoever God doeth, it shall be for ever: nothing can be put to it, nor any thing taken from it: and God doeth it, that men should fear before him.
(15) That which hath been is now; and that which is to be hath already been; and God requireth that which is past.
(16) And moreover I saw under the sun the place of judgment, that wickedness was there; and the place of righteousness, that iniquity was there.
(17) I said in mine heart, God shall judge the righteous and the wicked: for there is a time there for every purpose and for every work.
(18) I said in mine heart concerning the estate of the sons of men, that God might manifest them, and that they might see that they themselves are beasts.
(19) For that which befalleth the sons of men befalleth beasts; even one thing befalleth them: as the one dieth, so dieth the other; yea, they have all one breath; so that a man hath no preeminence above a beast: for all is vanity.
(20) All go unto one place; all are of the dust, and all turn to dust again.
(21) Who knoweth the spirit of man that goeth upward, and the spirit of the beast that goeth downward to the earth?
(22) Wherefore I perceive that there is nothing better, than that a man should rejoice in his own works; for that is his portion: for who shall bring him to see what shall be after him?
Referring to the media summary of the 2010 Davos Conference, I don’t much care for the headline, but at least the quotes from those who work for Murdoch are fairly accurate, based on my observing a few on-site interviews at the time. Yes, China is on the rise, and it will do so as long as America is the enabler. America will continue down its path as long as its politicians invite bankers into their beds. That too will continue as long as the voters will permit them.
The mid-term elections this year ought to be more absorbing television than the Winter Olympic Games coming up from Vancouver this month.
In the market today, it’s all about a crashing Dollar and soaring Euro. My sense at the end of last week that the Dollar would pull back, and equities, commodities and precious metals bounce turned out to be somewhat prophetic because I didn’t see too many people believing me.
Now we have to see how long the monetary authorities can keep the money flowing. Monkey see; monkey do.
The turn happened right as the EU endorsed a Greek government plan to remedy its overspending ways.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6121AH20100203?type=marketsNews
Here is the market picture:
See how the Asia-Pacific markets were goosed with the news from the EU:
Then see how long it took for the excitement to rub off after the European markets started to think about what was happening:
I advise against chasing prices unless you are day trading. This is an opportunity to sell into strength.
CTA Trading Desk Report
Stocks were mired in a narrow trading range for the balance of the session, unable to bust above the middle resistance zone (S&P 1105), probably marking time before the US unemployment report is released on Friday.
Technology stocks (QQQQ +0.55%) were much stronger than listed stocks (S&P -0.55%) with high beta leaders Research in Motion (RIMM +3.44%), Apple (AAPL +1.72%), and Google (GOOG +1.89%) leading their tech brethren higher.
After the close, Cisco (CSCO +3% after hours) reported better than expected earnings and upped guidance so the high-tech party should carry on to the opening bell tomorrow. Whether that is a large enough catalyst to propel the equity market higher remains to be seen.
Financial stocks were considerably weaker (XLF -0.88%) today with JP Morgan (JPM -0.64%), Wells Fargo (WFC -2.08%), and Goldman Sachs (GS +0.10%) each falling 2-3% from opening hour highs. These stocks have tended to lead the market -- topping many weeks before the broad market -- implying equities have more work on the downside. GS rallied right back to the underside of previous support (160), the same level of the 200-day Moving Average. With the declining 50-day MA (164.80) pointing south, the infamous “death cross” will trigger shortly unless GS is able to rally strongly over the next week or so.
In short, today was a mixed market with traders awaiting new information before upping their exposure. We expect the recent days' lows to be probed again, but are certainly open to the possibility of higher prices before the anticipated re-test of major technical support levels.
Have a great evening.
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Comments
Thx Bill
Maybe I will get through the day and commute in 1 piece.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
CHRW - Downgraded to Hold @ BB&T
Correlations updated
For those who look at correlations for proper diversification (a must), correlation coefficients were updated as of end January (it's done every end the month). Data includes Dec 09 and Jan 10.
1. correlations of currencies: http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/02/invest... Negative or positive correlations are bad, what you want is *non correlations*:
The are some of the best non-correlations, these are some of the best:
CNY and BNZ, DRR, ERO, EU, FXE (Euro) , FXC (Canada)
BNZ and CYB, ICI
DBV (the G-10 leveraged ETF) and the Euro ETFs, FXB, ULE, URR
FXC (Canada) and GBB (UK)
2. Stocks and indices: http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/02/proper...
Some really interesting and new combinations surfaced this month:
SPY and FXE (Euro)
XLU (utilities) and UUP (dollar) and GLD
XLU and ECH (Chile), and FXA (Aussie dollar)
XLF (financials) and FXE
UNG (nat gas) and EWZ (Brazil)
Bill, I see a couple of your
Bill,
I see a couple of your comments this morning as the key issue to most of our problems.
1. "Bankers don’t get it because they have no vested interest in getting it."
The same is true of CEOs in the companies whose shares we buy, our representatives in government, those getting special exclusions from the costs of the health care bill.
2. "We are, as a society, getting closer to understanding the fact that “those people” have interests that differ from us."
Bankers receiving bonuses, government workers retiring at an early age with 75% and greater continued income for life, CEOs with poor performance wearing golden parachutes.
Unless their folly costs them personally they will continue to profit from our losses.
AIG
RSI accumulation zone. Kangaroo tail reversal on 1/27. Max pain for Feb 31, 27 for March. Buy limit 23.70, if not trigged by 11:30AM, I'll pull the order.
Do your own homework.
Update: leaving the order on good for the day.
Cara 100 Update
Upgrades:
MCD - Added to Conviction Buy List @ Government Sachs. PT Raised from $73 to $75
WMT - Upgraded to Buy @ Stifel Nicolaus. PT = $62
New Coverage:
GG - Deutsche Bank Initiates with a Hold.
KGC - Deutsche Bank Initiates with a Buy.
Cara 100 Update (Final)
ABT - estimates changed at Barclays. ABT 2010 EPS estimates lowered to $4.27, 2011 introduced at $4.83. Maintain Overweight rating and $60 price target.
DOW - estimates increased at Morgan Stanley through 2010. Company is seeing better sales and higher joint-venture earnings. Overweight rating and $43 price target.
DOW - price target higher at BofA/Merrill. DOW price target raised by a dollar to $26 on stronger free cash flow. Reiterate Underperform rating.
The EU and Greece
In recent years, the regulators in Greece permitted the bankers there to take on more risk, which, given the subsequent break-down of the global financial system, was ill-timed. But, is that the real problem today -- obviously it is a problem -- or is it mostly like H1N1, a politically planned ambush using capital markets as the weapon of mass destruction?
The point here that I am really getting pissed at politicians and vested interests abusing our capital markets to achieve their ends. I do not accept the "Can't we all get along?" crapola. This is our capital market. The owners of capital, and our parents and theirs, have worked hard to make it, and these Interventionists have no right to take it and transfer it (or a large part of it) for themselves and their friends and the various groups in society they have links to or feel most in need. It is our capital; let us make such decisions.
cant buy me love 1.0
further to yesterday's comments on gold,
im not surprised in the least to see the way gold tricks us all, it moves up while the miners move down, it surges over night while most of us sleep, then falls hard prior to the open back towards yesterday's closing as the miners treadwater or are marginally lower.
the run up over night was to me a headfake and the ensuing downdraft occuring now tells me the likleyhood of a plunge from here is gaining momentum.
only a strong reversal to the upside back above $1120 would make me change to a bullish posture.
"Open-Break" Set Up Criteria.
Vad,
I have a million questions about this set up. Maybe you should write a book on this set up alone. But here is a bunch of questions disguised as two.
1. What criteria do you use to pick canidates for this set up. Is it it technically driven by a watch list of stocks you follow. Is it news driven? Does your scanner just spit them out. Do Gaps invalidate a open break.
2. How many bars of basing does it take for you to get a trigger and a stop with confidence. I have been able to get good canidates, but by the time I get ready, I either miss the break or it becomes invalid. Example one is RINO at the open. I noticed a C+H pattern forming at the close yesterday, so I thought it could be a canidate for an open break. It bounced around in a 25 cent range at the open and by the time I decided 21.40 was a trigger it was gone.
Bob
More comedy from the Teflon Man
The newswire reports as follows: "Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner says Congress can recoup "outrageous" bonuses for AIG employees through a new bank fee in President Barack Obama's proposed budget. Geithner on Wednesday asked the House Ways and Means Committee to support the new fee as a way of getting the money back."
The broken system had contracts with people who were paid according to their contract. But rather than fix the system, Geithner recommends treating legitimate people as criminals. On the other hand, he didn't pay his taxes and lied about it, which is criminal, but he expects us to treat him as a legitimate person, with respect.
This is Shakespearean tragicomedy, surely.
Re: The EU and Greece
Bill, I believe the vast majority of people that have their money in the market, via 401's, etc., are so far down that they are paralyzed with the fear of doing anything. I think they fear the chance of getting out even, or even making money. And the banksters know this, and keep feeding the farce. I have so many friends that have just given up, and rarely bother looking at market moves or prices. I do know they have drastically cut back on spending. In the meantime, energy costs are going up ( Duke Pwr. price increases are coming ), beef prices are up, everything is packaged smaller.. including the chickens sold at Wall mart.. and sold higher, wages are basically frozen, and the internet foreclosure pages of local realtors are almost double from those advertised last year at this time. I know population control is a hellish subject, but as you said, those that control the money flow serve only one master, and the ' trickle down ' effect ain't gonna work...
SU.TO
Initiated a position at $32.10. Looks cheap
Re: The EU and Greece
ALOHA !!
From the WSJ:
"Greece has pledged to bring its budget deficit below 3% of gross domestic product by 2012, following a shortfall of almost 13% in 2009. Under European Union rules, countries must keep their budget deficits below 3% of GDP."
Since Tim Geithner of the US Treasury reported the FY2009 US budget deficit was 12.3% of GDP the USA would not qualify to be in the EU ... Somehow I doubt Obama's tough spending cuts of $20BIL won't quite put the USA under 3% of GDP! Beware of Geithners bearing gifts ...
NLS
bought some more at $2.41 to $2.43.
Re: The EU and Greece
baz22,
"I have so many friends that have just given up, and rarely bother looking at market moves or prices."
I am seeing the same thing. Those buy&holders see the move upward since 3-9-09 as a sign it is getting better, which is exactly what the manipulation and hype is designed to portray.
I have those same feelings regarding the news media, government data, and candidates from any party. For the first time I did not vote in the primary yesterday. Most of what was provided was anti the opposing candidate and if anyone said anything about his own qualifications it was almost always something like, "I will fight for you."
Slogans don't do it for me. I want solid ideas from people with an experienced background. No more "Community Organizers" need apply.
creation of false money
Bill,
I really appreciate your quote from Ecclesiastes 3 it makes me believe that there must be a time coming for the banksters to be exposed to the general public in a way that they (public)will understand that all of the CREATED FROM THIN AIR MONEY that the banks get from the fed (other banksters)and then through fractional reserve are allowed to CREATE MORE THIN AIR MONEY to buy T-bills, is not real money, but once the T-bills are sold WE THE PEOPLE HAVE TO PAY IT ALL BACK WITH INTEREST WITH REAL MONEY THAT WE MUST WORK FOR!
The system is so corrupt and all the cards are stacked against the hard working Americans who will have to be in economic slavery all their lives.
The purpose of the Fed and the big banks is to create fake debts which all of us must pay back with interest. Lord willing enough of us will realize what is being done to us that we can change the system.
If anyone is interested, Time Warner's monthly statement
for basic cable has increased $ 9.00/month in Charlotte, due, I assume, to the Fox demands.. I am canceling service in March...
SU.TO Macquarie
further to suncor, I find this morning report very useful. Check it out.
Macquarie Capital has purchased Blackmont Capital in Canada and they continue their excellent morning report: Launchpad. http://marquimail.marqui.com/marqui/View.aspx?id=1...
Macquarie’s research capacity is truly becoming an embarrassment of riches for us (as the ROB’s Andrew Willis is beginning to note with today’s "The new language of the oil sands" highlighting a Macquarie report written yesterday) Today’s research highlights included analysis of Suncor’s disappointing results yesterday, which include reduced earnings and cashflow estimates:
Our 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates have changed to C$2.13 (down 13%) and C$2.90 (down 5%), respectively. For CFPS, 2010 increases to C$4.94 (up 8%) and 2011 increases to C$5.61 (up 8%).
Suncor's stock has been under pressure since the upgrader fire. However, trading in line with our flat NAV of C$32.53/sh (10% AT, US$75/b), the company looks attractively valued relative to 2011/12 growth expectations. Entering a transformational 2010, we expect the company to emerge more oil weighted looking into 2011 and a core holding for investors wanting oil sands exposure.
Re: The EU and Greece
Grym, I just wonder what the tipping point will be... When will people not care anymore, and just walk away from debts ? I personally feel that THIS situation is the greatest fear in Washington and the money centers.. There would be no court system or jail anywhere to deal with this...
Re: The EU and Greece
ALOHA !!
"I do know they have drastically cut back on spending. In the meantime, energy costs are going up ( Duke Pwr. price increases are coming ), beef prices are up, everything is packaged smaller.. including the chickens sold at Wall mart.. and sold higher, wages are basically frozen, and the internet foreclosure pages of local realtors are almost double from those advertised last year at this time."
To those who claim there is "no inflation" I say WRONG ...
To say there is NO INFLATION is to negate my entire life. When I was only seven years old, back in the 1960, I could buy gum for 1 cent and watch a movie for 20 cents. In 1967 my Mother gave my brother and I each $1USD to go McDonalds and buy a hamburger with fries and a vanilla shake. In 1972, while in college I paid $200 per month for a two bedroom, two bath apartment in Southern California with a pool and a gym.
While "officially measured" inflation is lower this year and last we are all suffering from "embedded inflation" from the past 50 years of US government spending and mismanagement. As I have said in the past ... "Wake me when the cost of living gets down to 1970 prices!"
Inflation is in the eye of the beholder.
- If you measure inflation in just home prices then we have deflation.
- If you measure inflation in just average wages then we have stagflation.
- If you measure inflation in just union wages then we have inflation.
- If you measure inflation in just JPM and GS wages then we have hyperinflation.
- If you measure inflation in 401ks then we have deflation.
- If you measure inflation in power bills we have inflation.
- If you measure inflation in medical bills then we have hyperinflation.
- If you measure inflation in credit card rates then we have hyperinflation.
- If you measure inflation in US Treasury debt then we have hyperinflation.
- If you measure inflation in political lies then we have super hyperinflation!
I posted this last nite for kaimu.....
http://www.wikio.com/video/2638541
Societal Awareness and Understanding
When it comes to society gaining awareness, I feel cynicism. Optimism just does not feel appropriate when I see anybody write or speak about change and the people getting it.
In my local area we recently had an election. Even though corruption is rife within the system and times are harder economically, the incumbents were re-elected and the people voted for tax increases. This is after the local government voted themselves a 3% salary increase while cutting services to pay for it.
Short of some kind of societal or system collapse that brings about great misery and suffering, I find it hard to believe that people will ever get it. And even then, will they really get it? Or will the upheaval and chaos just be an temporary means of venting?
Swing traders: Where do you find info on earnings announcements?
Just wanted to know where you swing traders get earnings dates! I try not to hold through earnings, but sometimes I get in a position not even aware that a earnings announcement is pending. I bought some STLD on Monday only to find out that there is Earnings today. Why are earnings announcement dates not more prevelant in a companys news. I would prefer a two week warning. " News 14days untill earnings." Next day I would like to see "13 days until earnings." ect.
Bob
Re: cant buy me love 1.0
dr cosa -
"the run up over night was to me a headfake and the ensuing downdraft occuring now tells me the likleyhood of a plunge from here is gaining momentum."
Gold's breakout above 1130 will be staring you down. Secular trend is up based on fundamentals confirmed by 5000 years of monetary history. Run up overnight = ensuing downdraft = likelyhood of plunge = momentum. China and Soros want IMF gold for less than India's price too. LOL. He who hesitates ...
Got mine.
Re: Swing traders: Where do you find info on earnings ...
Try this:
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=earnin...
Play with the earnings date variable that suits your preference.
As I told you guys, Toyota was a good short candidate.
LOL. Too bad I didn't listen to my own advice. It happened too fast. I was going to wait for a rebound in the 85 range and then short. The rebound didn't materialize.
Re: cant buy me love 1.0
herr doctor,
yes over 5000 years the trend lines look good,
over the next few weeks/months no so good.
what im seeing is a classic set up, with gold surging over night followed by a solid move down. all of this confirmed by weak volume in the shares on teh way up and a loss even as gold inched forward the day prior. the same occuring today even more so as gold moves below a critical $1110 mark.
again, as with anything a move above $1120 would change the posture. until that day, its "show me the money", right now that is down, the flight to safety in USD is clear here and we have seen it before, gold will always have the last laugh but how long must one suffer watching this kind of lousy action in the miners.
its simple if sad: weak EU= strong USD.
those hoping for a decouple in gold will be long in the tooth.
Re: Societal Awareness and Understanding
Bert,
You make a good point. Even Bernanke's reappointment was confirmed with a 70:30 vote. Obviously the Senators do not fear the voter.
But society does change at certain points, with remarkable speed. Look at the Berlin Wall and the Iron Curtain collapse. The results may or may not be an improvement, but that is a process. Our discussing these matters in this blog is helpful to that process, I think.
We do what we can to bring about change but the fact is we all have different lives to live.
Re: AIG
AIG hit 23.718 @ 11:45 am +/-. Did you execute that buy? I just watching your style of trading. Don't have the _____ ( fill in, skill time or guts) to follow your path. But I'll cheer you on.
peace from North Puget Sound
Re: Swing traders: Where do you find info on earnings ...
you can also try earnings.com
http://tinyurl.com/yh2fhr2
type your symbol into the box in the upper right hand corner
http://tinyurl.com/ykgrrqs
:)
dr. cosa
I am looking at the January, 2006, charts/prices, as the point of entry for the gold equities, if possible... then again.....
U$D vs PM
Sounds like exhaustion in U$D and buying opportunity in PM. The dollar sentiment is very high and PM sentiment is very low. I'm aboard with miners, gold and silver. Not sure how long this ride will last. I'm hoping silver will spike like it did in early 2004, early 2006, or early 2008. Is this some kind of 2 year cycle?
Re: creation of false money
"Lord willing enough of us will realize what is being done to us that we can change the system."
I too appreciate ECCLESIASTES 3, read all of it, and especially the part about the fruit of our labors being a gift from you know who. The whole passage speaks volumes about how God's system with the cycles Bill speaks of cannot be stopped (they will occur, his will be done...they already exist...God has spoken)
Re: Swing traders: Where do you find info on earnings ...
I like the earningns calendar at Briefing.com: http://bit.ly/d4Mdb3
Geithner ripped on budget
pretty funny.
http://bit.ly/b1ntEp
Go to time marker 62:15.
funny funny funny
Re: If anyone is interested, Time Warner's monthly statement
Baz, they are increasing cost in Buffalo, NY also…. but if I cancel, what are the options? Cable TV/internet prices are going up but the benefit to my life, news, entertainment, email etc out weighs the additional cost. It is almost being penny wise but pound foolish…. so I hear you, but my other life costs are reduced by more than the Time Warner increase…and my chances to earn more, or save more in other ways is increased (internet shopping, price comparison, time savings, postage, no paper newspaper, selling on Craig’s list, reading this blog etc).
So if I cancel, what are my alternatives?
Re: If anyone is interested, Time Warner's monthly statement
I will read more, and can use the library.... I guess it depends on one's age.. I am in my 50's now, and am trying my best to live as I did in the late 1970's... I can't turn back time, but I was a heck of a lot happier and much more positive when my life was more simple... It is said, ' you don't own things, they own you '..... so very true.
Re: The EU and Greece
baz22,
I think to some degree this is happening already. If not by choice de facto as people who cannot pay their mortgage are not being foreclosed. Banks have too many unoccupied houses and don't press those in default.
My son's job is increasingly in jeopardy and I would recommend if he loses it again (twice already) he hold back the payment and see what happens. He may be able to negotiate a better deal.
When I had my own business if a client was in a pinch I would accept a token payment each month to show their good intentions.
Global Debt Cluster Bomb
I have wanted, for the last month, to make a list of all the debt laden land mines that lie in the road ahead.
I never took the time to write them all down. Yesterday I found such a list... so thought I would share it.
20 reasons Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon
Commentary: Which trigger will ignite the Great Depression II By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch.com
20 economic weapons of mass destruction triggering ticking Global Debt Time Bomb
1. Federal Budget Deficit Bomb. The Bush/Cheney wars pushed America deep into a debt hole. Federal debt limit was just raised almost 100% with Obama's 2010 budget, to $14.3 trillion vs. $7.8 trillion in 2005. The Congressional Budget Office predicts future deficits around 4% through 2020. Get it? America's debt at 84% of GDP will soon pass that toxic 90% trigger point.
2. U.S. Foreign Trade Bomb. Monthly deficits actually dropped from $50 billion per month to roughly $35 billion. But the total continues climbing as $400 billion is added each year. Foreigners now own $2.5 trillion of America, with China holding over $1.3 trillion in Treasury debt.
3. Weakening U.S. Dollar as Foreign Reserve Currency Bomb. Fear China and other currencies will replace dollar as main foreign reserves. The dollar's fallen: The main index measuring dollar strength has gone from 120 at the Clinton-to-Bush handoff to below 80 today.
4. Cheap Money Bomb: Credit Ratings Down, Rates Up. Economists at S&P, Fitch and Moody's were totally co-conspirators of Fat Cat Bankers, misleading investors before meltdown: Soon, debt up, ratings down, interest rates soar.
5. Global Real Estate Bomb. Dubai Tower, new "world's tallest building" is empty. BusinessWeek warns that China's housing collapse could be worse than America's. Plus the U.S. commercial real estate bubble is now $1.7 trillion, a "ticking time bomb" bloating 25% of bank balance sheets.
6. Peak Oil and the Population Bomb. China and India each need 500 new cities. The United Nations estimates world population exploding 50% from 6 billion to 9 billion by 2050: Three billion more humans demanding more automobiles, exhausting more resources to feed their version of the gas-guzzling "America Dream."
7. Social Security Bomb. We have no choice; eventually we must either cut benefits or raise taxes. Politicians hate both, so they'll do nothing. Delays worsen solutions. Without action, by 2035 Social Security and Medicare benefits will eat up the entire federal budget other than defense.
8. Medicare: A Nuclear Bomb. Going broke faster than Social Security. Prescription drug benefit added an unfunded $8.1 trillion. In 5 years estimates rose from about $35 trillion to over $60 trillion now.
9. Health-care Insurance Bomb. Burden increasingly shifted to employees. Costs rising faster than inflation. Recent Obamacare plan would have cost $90 billion annually, paid to Big Pharma and insurers.
10. State and Local Government Budget Bombs. Deficits of $110 billion in 2010, $178 billion in 2011on top of more than $450 billion in underfunded state and municipal employee pension funds.
11. Underfunded Corporate Pensions Bomb. From $60 billion surplus in 2007 to $409 billion deficit in 2009. And a whopping 92% of the pension plans of companies are now underfunded. Defaults are guaranteed by taxpayers.
12. Consumer Debt Bomb. Americans are still living beyond their means. Even with a downturn, consumer debt rose from about $2.3 to $2.5 trillion. Fat Cat Bankers love it – yes, love making matters worse by gouging cardholders and mortgagees, blocking help in foreclosures and bankruptcies.
13. Personal Savings Bomb. Before the 2008 meltdown savings rate dropped from about 10% in the early 1980s to below zero. Now it's increasing, slowing retail recovery. Today, government's the big "unsaver."
14. War and Military Defense Deficits. Costs of Iraq and Afghanistan wars -- $200+ billion annually, $3 trillion minimum, with massive long-term costs for veteran medical care, equipment renewal, recruitment.
15. Homeland Insecurity Bomb. Security at airports, seaports, borders, vulnerable chemical plants all increase budgets.
16. Fed/Treasury Bailout Bombs. Tax credits, loans, cash and purchase of toxic assets from Wall Street banks estimated at $23.7 trillion as new debt was shifted from too-big-to-fail Fat-Cat banks to taxpayers.
17. Insatiable Washington Lobbyists Bombs. Paulson, Goldman, Geithner, Morgan and Wall Street banks, through their lobbyists and former employees working inside now have absolute power over government spending. Democracy and voters are now irrelevant in America's new corporate-socialism.
18. Shadow Banking: The Derivatives Bomb. Wall Street wants no regulation of this $670 trillion, high-risk, out-of-control casino that's highly leveraged versus the $50 trillion total GDP of all nations. We forget that derivatives almost destroyed global economies in 2008-09, finally will by 2012.
19. Dysfunctional Two-Party Political Bomb. Polarized partisanship increasing: Every day both parties show zero interest in cooperating for the public good. Instead they fight viciously, resisting everything and anything proposed by opponents. Only goal: Score political points, make the other side look bad.
20. The Coming Populous Rebellion Bombs. Nobody trusts anyone in authority. For good reason. So immediate gratification, short-term betting and a lack of long-term perspective wins for individual investors, consumers and taxpayers as well as Washington, Wall Street and Corporate America CEOs. Today: "Doing what's right for the common good and country" is just empty political rhetoric.
Have any of you guys
been tracking KKD ?... Any thoughts on the business model ?
Toyota problems not going away any time soon
Buying F for an alternate is a good thing.......
Re: If anyone is interested, Time Warner's monthly statement
Not to be a jerk, I am 58….as for reading, on the used book sites many times I find almost new book for 99 cents that is 20$ in store.
Couple weeks ago we bought my college daughters textbooks used for about 200$. New they were way over 600$…we bought exactly the same editions etc and most were hardly even opened.
Last year the Buffalo News raised the Sunday delivered price by 50 cents (maybe it was 75 cents) per week.
My kid thinks simple is having smart phone, sending 10,000 txts a month, laptop, working, school full time.
My father told me long time ago “don’t always think about ways to save more money, think about ways to make more”.
So simple for me is good, but since I only have a few decades left….i want to experience as much as possible and live as much as I can.
But more important…. what are my alternatives to the increases from Time Warner? That couple $$ increase bothers me too. I have been fighting every increase in every way possible.
To me canceling is like walking out of a meeting when you don’t agree with the way decisions is made…. once you walk away, you have no input into final decisions.
Better pay those taxes !!
... http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2010/02/ir...
Re: "Open-Break" Set Up Criteria.
Bob,
that would be a very short book. It's one of the simplest setups possible, don't overthink it.
1. It either forms on the stock I watch because of its activity, or my scanner spits them out - it has a filter for open range breaks. News is merely a reason to look; if it creates activity, I am interested. Gap doesn't invalidate it; open break may set you to fade the gap or play its continuation, both are valid.
2. There is no fast rule as to how many bars should form the range before it becomes valid for the setup. Rather look at it as gradually increasing its reliability: range created by 3 bars will be riskier to rely upon that a range created by 10. It's only natural considering how volatile mornings can be. Not sure what you mean by "by the time I get ready, I either miss the break or it becomes invalid"... you see a range forming, prepare your order and click as it triggers. If it's too fast, well, it's too fast - mornings ARE volatile.
I attach a screenshot of your RINO with some annotations, good setup. You could play it with stop under 21.15 or you could modify it a bit and use .20 as support based on bars from 9.37 to 9:41. If you missed breakout, you could turn it into conservative entry play - wait for the price to come back into former resistance 21.40 that became a new support now and enter for bounce - that was what happened at 9:51.
Hope it helps.
Been watching the ' in country ' stocks in China....
non-exporters.. ags.. grow season is coming..
Uber Banker Paul Volker
In testimony yesterday, the Don of Central Bankers, Paul Volker mentioned several times the need to reach an " agreement" amongst bankers in New York/London and 12-15 other large banks throughout the world, regarding new rules, which would separate banks and investment houses and impose a no rescue/ allow to fail policy for financial institutions and a mechanism to dispose of the institution if it fails.....a clearing house for failed assets... similar to RTC. (probably a place to stash all those worthless toxic mortgage loans the government owns? )
Was Volker perhaps delivering a message from the BIS (Bank of International Settlements) the central bank of central banks ? ..... time for new rules boys ! You let the party get too wild and now we have to clean up the mess.
Will global banks follow the lead of New York/London cabal or will our creditors dictate the new rules?
The Chinese are probably riled up over the recent US delivery of weapons to Taiwan. Are the Arabs happy we have
occupied Iraq and Afghanistan? Looking on the map it appears we have Iran pretty much surrounded. The German's interest will probably be Euro centric. The Asians seem to be rallying around each other and considering new
currency trade agreements between themselves. Brazil and Russia may not be interested in the Western plan.
Japan is a toss up.
Volker's "agreement" may not be so easy to achieve. During the testimony, a Congressman echoed in about
how it was time for American leadership as we are the leaders of the world and need to take charge. Volker agreed and said " Well.. if we could get the Brits to agree maybe the others would fall inline and a consensus could be reached " (paraphrase) . Volker seemed to think that maybe it could be accomplished.
A G20 One world global government could begin with a new financial agreement.
I'm not sure where Mr Volker's allegiance and interests lie? His actions in the 80's were applauded by many.
Does he favor honest banking without excessive risk taking? I didn't hear him mention fraud or ponzi scheme
or accounting rule 157. I had hoped he would scold Congress for their misbehavior.
Re: Swing traders: Where do you find info on earnings ...
Fox 1: Thanks, That is what I was looking for.
Olaf and Telestar 3 thank you for your responses. I have tried both your suggestions and they are good, but I was looking for a bottom up data base that earnings.com provides. I want to put a symbol in and get the next earnings date.
Bob
p.s. FinVIZ has been my go to site for everything equities. In a perfect world it would have charts on a variety of time frames and I probablly would not go to another site;.
Re: Swing traders: Where do you find info on earnings ...
Thanks to the others, I now have new bookmarks.
In FinViz after you click on the symbol the chart that comes up allows you to change the timframe on a D,W,M basis. Intra day is at a cost, I think.
Re: As I told you guys, Toyota was a good short candidate.
Ooh I had fun playing with Toyoto going momo today. What an interesting experience. Scalped it going from 74 down to 72, made my daily quota and then some, and then proceeded to give it all back shorting at 72. It rebounded, I kept wishing it to go back down and finally found the nerve to cover after being hit with a 1.00 stop. I was too embarrassed to mention it in the chat room. I can't keep a stop if it hit me in the head with a 4x2. As TM calmed down again I scalped it successfully. Still, I like making things difficult for myself.
The chat room was watching TM at the moment it dropped like a lead balloon. We couldn't believe what we were seeing. And then the news release: "transport sec. tells all Toyota drivers to stop driving". Talking about driving the proverbial stake into Toyota's heart. Commercial warfare provided by Uncle Sam - today's events should have helped Government Motors sell a few extra cars. An interesting event to witness.
Re: Have any of you guys
baz22,
I haven't followed them for several years now, but made out like a bandit from the initial offering in 2000 until sometime in '03 or '04. they had several splits and were very volatile. I just kept trading in and out and moving stops upward.
Then they had a big internal scandal on top of a move (bad idea) into Europe.
The former CEO was a real promoter, but got caught up doing some questionable deals.
It was, IMO, a fluke. The donuts are supper sweet, but still just a donut.
Re: "Open-Break" Set Up Criteria.
Vad,
Praise for building my self esteem by saying what I think is complicated is actually the simplest thing in the world!(: Just kidding really appreciate your input it has been a big influence on my trading. I do need a lot of work on the execution (my trouble this morning), but the Tape reading setups have freed me from all the other stock trading nonesense.
Re: As I told you guys, Toyota was a good short candidate.
There will be more. Toyota will end up recalling all those millions of cars they made with electronic throttle without fail-safe (since 2001-2005 depending on models). This will be a huge disaster for TM. But I thought it would take more time to unfold.
This is why I was not fast enough to short.
Monster Buys HotJobs From Yahoo For $225 Million.
http://tcrn.ch/a4xKvx.
They both had the same job listings, spam, and candidate resumes. So i guess its a great deal for yahoo, and a not so smart deal for Monster. and with the lack of jobs thus reduction of job posting revenue, yahoo was smart to get out. The folks like theladders.com who charges for desperate job seekers $30/month are prob minting gold right now.
Excellent Piece of Reality Coming from Hollywood...take a look.
But this time, it is REAL, NOT FICTION!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zmin3OZnC0w&feature...
Re: "Open-Break" Set Up Criteria.
Bob... lol. You know these things are as simple or complicated as we make them. My main point was to keep it simple and within common sense. A lot (not all but still) of sophisticated-sounding deeply technical voodoo-like jargon does nothing but satisfies one's ego by making one feel important, all-knowing and partial to some deep secret unknown to mere mortals.
Here is simple common sense on which all my setups are based. Let's take this one as illustration. A stock makes a few moves between high and low, forming opening range. What happens is, sellers get locked in their expectations by committing to the resistance level - they now expect this level to hold, otherwise they are in troubles. Similarly, buyers commit to support level - violation of it will turn them into losers. Break all participants trading this particular name by the groups and you will get:
1. Committed sellers betting on resistance to hold.
2. Committed buyers betting on support to hold.
3. Sellers-in-waiting ready to commit if support is lost
4. Buyers-in-waiting ready to commit if resistance is broken.
What happens when resistance does get broken? First group rushes to take stops effectively becoming buyers and adding fuel to the fire. Second group celebrates and prepares to take profit or hold or add, depending on particular strategy and/or timeframe. Third group shrugs and leaves as they haven't gotten their entry signal - or changes their entry strategy waiting for some new setup. Finally, fourth group piles up with their buy-on-break orders. That's breakout roles and dynamics (granted, somewhat simplified for manageability).
You can build similar cases for breakdown, for double bottom reversal etc etc. Verify any additional consideration or indicator against this kind of "common sense" understanding, and your strategy will remain grounded and sound.
Re: Been watching the ' in country ' stocks in China....
Look at CAGC or CGA both are good.
Re: Societal Awareness and Understanding
Bill - It's amazing the coincidence of thought that occurs on a daily basis. The Berlin Wall was one of the cases in history I strongly had in mind when I initially wrote.
Considering East Berlin (the communist side) . . . While I was not there, I understand that anyone who tried to leave was shot and anyone who spoke out against the system was imprisoned, tortured or killed. In the meantime, politicians and law enforcement lived very well while the majority of the population was used and abused. The government grew into a cottage industry of keeping the citizens aligned with the party goals, at work and without the means of escape.
There are modern day examples of the same that exist in varying degrees. It also seems to me many governments of 'free countries' are incrementally moving in this direction with the infinite creation of laws and law enforcement agencies. And the people continually ask for more. To fully disclose my feelings, it is the people asking for more that disgusts me the most.
I ask my self, for what purpose did many East Berlin people die? For change? Was there a better way? Did they die just to protect the position, power and lifestyle of the authorities?
The founders of the United States left Europe. They did not try to change Europe or maybe they gave up trying. Either way, they left it. It only took us 200 years to erode many of the hard earned freedoms. Is our existence increasingly to preserve the position, power and lifestyle of our stewards? Are we at the peak of this cycle? Should the few of us who see this be looking for a new frontier? Is there one? Should we focus our efforts on surviving regime change as opposed to trying to direct it?
Without a doubt, change is inevitable, necessary and a constant. Perhaps the best way to facilitate improved change is in giving people the information with which to think, learn and understand. I personally applaud your efforts in this endeavor.
Re: Swing traders: Where do you find info on earnings ...
Try the Earnings calendar on YAHOO
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html
Re: "Open-Break" Set Up Criteria.
Breakout roles
1. Committed sellers betting on resistance to hold.
2. Committed buyers betting on support to hold.
3. Sellers-in-waiting ready to commit if support is lost
4. Buyers-in-waiting ready to commit if resistance is broken.
Getting philosophical here, but as a Tape reader you could be in any of these roles. I visualize four non-moving lines of traffic(consolidation). The tape reader is just ready to take cuts in the line of traffic once it gets moving in a certain direction(breakout)and get out of line once traffic starts slowing. (exit). Forgive the traffic analogy, but that is how us native Californians think.
Bob
Re: "Open-Break" Set Up Criteria.
Exactly - and that's the whole point of this kind of setup building. To stay with the same setup we discuss: as one of the sides of the opening range breaks, you get your entry signal - or trade trigger - or cut in the line to jump in. And, to continue with driving analogy, stop loss is jumping out of the line as soon as it shows that it moves in opposite direction taking you farther from destination (good way to think of it so not to blow your stop - I mean who in their right mind would stay in he same traffic line in hope that it somehow brings them to the destination that is farther and farther behind).
Re: Excellent Piece of Reality Coming from Hollywood...take ...
analyst65 ,You are right ,its not fiction ,its REAL! The situation became a big enough problem that the SEC's inspector general has sent four internal reports on the topic to Congress over the past two years, according to The Washington Times, which first reported on the sex-starved SEC workers after obtaining information on the computer abuse through a Freedom of Information Act request. One regional supervisor made 1800 attempts over a 17- day period.
The regional supervisor, who wasn't identified, turned out to be one of the biggest offenders, though he was given only a reprimand for wasting time and agency assets. Mary Schapiro , who could not control the S.E.C has been replaced by a 29 year old from Goldman Sachs . Is he more qualified to find the next Madoff or can find a way to direct attention away from amusements such as the daily dish of Porn . After the Madoff fiasco there should be mass firings.
http://tinyurl.com/yda7wph
Banker Investors Beware....FHA cracks down
FHA commissioner David Stevens at a Washington press conference notes they are investigating 15 FHA lenders with a high claim rate on mortgages that are only 30 months old. High defaults tend to raise the 'f' word (fraud).
The lenders issued subpoenas include: First Tennessee Bank N.A., Memphis; Alethes LLC, Lakeway, Texas; Security Atlantic Mortgage, Edison, N.J.; Pine State Mortgage of Georgia; Birmingham Bancorp Mortgage, West Bloomfield, Mich.; Alacrity Financial Services, Southlake, Texas; Assurity Financial Services, Englewood, Colo.; D and R Mortgage Corp. Farmington, Mich.; Webster Bank, Cheshire, Conn.; Mac-Clair Mortgage Corp., Flint, Mich.; Americare Investment Group, Inc., Arlington, Texas; 1st Advantage Mortgage, Lombard, Ill.; American Sterling Bank, Independence, Mo.; Sterling National Mortgage, Great Neck, N.Y.; and Dell Franklin Financial, Columbia, Md.
These lenders have originated at least 1,000 FHA loans and their claim rates exceed their peers by 200%, according to HUD.
Re: "Open-Break" Set Up Criteria.
(good way to think of it so not to blow your stop - I mean who in their right mind would stay in he same traffic line in hope that it somehow brings them to the destination that is farther and farther behind).
Well maybe everyone's favorite new fresh faced reality show superstar over at reality traders does it for the drama of it all!
Bob
DEBT LIMIT
ALOHA !!
Here they come again barely a few months after the last debt limit increase of $290BIL USD and the House is voting on raising the Debt Ceiling tomorrow. What was Congress thinking? Now they are looking extra foolish! Its now 71 years of Congress and their fake Debt Ceiling. What ceiling?
H.J. Res. 45, which would increase our debt limit by $1.9 trillion. House vote tomorrow!
Just on Monday, 2/1/10, they blew up the Public Debt by $71BIL and now they are within $90BIL USD of going over the limit. From a "gross" aspect they are within $30BIL. All I can say is there must be some hefty "spending and debting" heading our way from HD&D to want $1.9TRIL more!
Let's see how Obama and Bernanke spin this into a USD rally ... It's all contrarian until it isn't!
Will Gold follow the path of least resistance ?
That being Down .... There are big problems in the European Banking system... collateral issues... and Gold has followed the movement of the Euro almost step by step.. Dennis Gartman sees the Euro heading down as do others...http://www.cnbc.com/id/35219012/site/14081545?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo
SPX and GS charts. no price. just the moving avgs
SPX and GS moving avg charts, hidden prices. compliments of Prophet Charts in Think or Swim software.
http://i47.tinypic.com/108aiom.png
http://i49.tinypic.com/fuc9k0.png
"The Fabulous Life Of Billion Dollar Wall Street Ballers."
http://bit.ly/bgPHIS.
Be ready to vomit.
Birth Death model for unemployment spotlight.
U.S. Job Losses May Be Even Larger, Model Breaks Down
http://bit.ly/dByNQH
Bloomburg birth-death model interactive presentation
http://bit.ly/92tUxy
Explaining The Government's 1.8 Million Job Overestimation In Pictures
http://bit.ly/9cj5Wu
Little stock ( use to be larger ! )
Trades at $ 2.00..... has $ 2.76 cash per share... book value is $ 3.02... has $ 0 debt.... quarterly Rev growth of 28% yoy... quarterly Earnings growth of 76% yoy... Insiders hold 52%...
824,000 Jobs Will Disappear on February 5th
Interesting Article...
http://www.bloomberg.com/insight/birth-death-model...
Update: apology NYUGrad, I just noticed you have already posted the link above.. looks like we are reading same stuff almost around same time and passing them along :)
Re: 824,000 Jobs Will Disappear on February 5th
Yeh :)
But be prepared for the irrational trade. Prices may rally just to spite the majority. But i am prepared for this.
I am sitting on my hands, marked my resistance levels to watch, and i am suspecting a irrational rally into resistance, maybe even go beyond those areas, fooling everyone.
Russell Financial index divergence
FAZ, FAS, RIFIN. http://bit.ly/aadRRE
Look at that massive macd divergence. this is eventually going to crack to the downside like Jenga. http://bit.ly/b2ptPc
Re: AIG
Naw, had to go to work and missed by a penny. But I put the order on again for Thursday. I wanted to bump the number of shares but no position should be more than 6%. Just using the RSI.
GL
Re: Russell Financial index divergence
NYU: I don't understand or see the mass divergence. Can you explain the chart in layman's terms. Please. In other words is it the dive below the moving averages you are talking about or the actual MACD.
In addition your instincts on the market rallying on a huge unemployment number is correct in my opinion. I predict that it would rally after a head fake of coarse. The reason it will rally is for all the same reasons the market has rallied since March. High unemployment insures LOW INTEREST RATES and a WEAK DOLLAR the main ingredients of this rally.The time for a big sell off will be when there are signs the economy is good. A positive unemployment number would cause a huge sell off in my opinion. Just like this last sell off was caused by that high GDP number. It really is logical if not counterintuitive.
Bob
Tipping or tipped or in the tip?
Baz22,
Ch7 bankrupcy filings are up significantly. Folks seem less troubled by admitting defeat and cite The Donald (Trump) as their mentor.The collective tipping point may have been reached already...but we will be the last to know. It concerns me to hear that people are engaged in a planned strategy to max our their debts first and THEN walk. Have we arrived in a reality TV induced version of advanced greed? I do think the fabulous lifestyle TV shows and news of Wall Street bonuses breeds a pervasive dissastisfaction. Can revolution be far behind?
Re: Russell Financial index divergence
bobbyo,
I updated the chart with some add on notes.
http://bit.ly/aadRRE
as for the ma's those are the ones i use as my default to give longer term trade signals. I wasnt referring to them re the divergence.
Here is the vice versa version flipped in TYP. http://bit.ly/byPO0L.
And another: http://bit.ly/9e0dJL
As you can see it doesn't give a sell or buy signal. Just a warning signal that you should be getting ready to hedge existing position or begin to look for the exit signs and sell into strength. I guess its not a tool in my hand to hand combat bag, more so my long range sniper bag.
EDIT: also i welcome anyone to correct or fine tune how i am looking at these charts. I welcome critique.
Re: "The Fabulous Life Of Billion Dollar Wall Street Ballers."
Made it about half way through before having to run and embrace the porcelain...
Re: Russell Financial index divergence
Nice job! I get what your saying.I never used The Macd for trend confirmation. I use the ADX if i can't figure out the trend. I assume the ADX is below 20 on each of these? I do screen for MACD crossovers to seek out reversal plays.
Bob
Re: "Open-Break" Set Up Criteria.
bobbyo said: "Well maybe everyone's favorite new fresh faced reality show superstar over at reality traders does it for the drama of it all!"
a reality show - what a cute little concept for Bill's site. Let's watch someone make an ass of themselves right here!
Or maybe we should only share what we do right - mistakes not required here! Then we'll all become better traders by virtue of this "knowledge".
Or even better, let's rehash Vad's experience here ad nauseam or...
someone might actually consider the principle impediments to daytrading from the mistakes of others (How often do we get to read of the faults of others?) and the attitude that "it's not possible" might become "well if I can improve upon that, maybe it is". Heck, let's compare that ass to the coach for a real comparison of what to do vs. what not - maybe daytrading really is possible!
Vad has his stuff so tightly packed away that it's difficult to believe he ever made errors. I'll happily share them with those willing to read, and once these basic errors have been removed from my trading, there'll be funnily enough less need to recount them.
The coach is right - I'm not in my right frame of mind to let that stop slip away and big profits turn to loss, but to suggest that it's for the drama of it all?
Re: Societal Awareness and Understanding
Bert Said "Short of some kind of societal or system collapse that brings about great misery and suffering, I find it hard to believe that people will ever get it."
That's sort of the way my thinking is shaped at present Bert. While Marx's political economic theory has arguably fallen by the wayside, some of his philosophical work - some of it a continuation of his mentor Hegel - continues to maintain relevance today.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dialectic
Whereas the dialectic (read diatribe) of the Marxist was to assert that "you are wrong, only I know the truth" (there are some parallels to the scientific and political communities today) the newest paradigm in social inquiry is that of hermeneutics. That is, "hermeneutics means the interpretation and understanding of social events by analysing their meanings to the human participants and their culture" (that's the wiki entry).
That I believe we are doing here together, interpreting and understanding without the talking heads (be they tv personalities, politicians, scientist or anyone else) dominating our worldview. For example, I have newfound respect for the bible as a guiding principle of ethics in peoples lives. My father is a fundamentalist Catholic and through my experience with him I have developed a healthy skepticism of all that pertains to the church, just as I have developed a skepticism towards the political institutions through this site.
But through understanding and accepting what guides Bill and many others (i.e, texts such as Ecclesiastes 3) we are open to and accepting of what makes other people tick. For others here it appears to be Eastern philosophy, of which I am completely ignorant of but nonetheless interested in learning about. This is the difference between people at this site and society at large, IMO. We have been brainwashed into being intolerant of others. "Greed is good" and "I am the most important person on the planet" (you get my drift).
I've the pleasure to encounter Blucher recently, and this is what the person who archived his previously lost recordings and materials had to say about him:
"When Heinrich Blücher speaks of Socrates or Homer or Jesus, his interest is not in biography, but rather in exploring the means of philosophical action. His emphasis is on application to the present, on the use of philosophy and history in confronting both the greater moral, ethical, and philosophical challenges of the age and in helping us approach the tasks of everyday life."
http://www.bard.edu/bluecher/
I am not confident that we are simply going to snap out of our malaise and everything will be good again. I believe that people need to suffer to see and understand something better. Human history suggests this. But the dialectic of opposing belief systems that are building in pressure between the minority pursuing their present interests and the rest of us being screwed will inevitably come about. I only hope it is in my time and I do not leave my children to suffer on their own. The internet has clearly become a dark pool of idea exchange, particularly for generation Y who rely on TV the least for their entertainment. Permitting the next generation to read sites like Bill's place can only help lead the way to a new and hopefully better outcome.
Nemo, I just discovered recordings by Blucher discussing Lao Tse and Buddha. I'm not exactly sure what you're interested in, but I found Blucher's "last lecture" to be very engaging, and will endeavor to listen to his other work.
http://www.bard.edu/bluecher/listen.htm
Re: Societal Awareness and Understanding
Les,
Interesting post. Thanks for the links, I'll check them out.
Often I find others who like you (and I) have come to a different religious understanding over time. In my case I had a fundamentalist Protestant father whose view was "never question the Bible."
Before I was out of high school I had already determined where I was born and into what family was what made me a Christian. If I had been born in China the odds were I would not be one.
When in my forties I was told by the pastor of the church where I was a member, "You ask questions that shouldn't be asked."
For about 2 years I studied the Bible and for two more I taught it. All the while I was reading a wide range of material by theologians, philosophers and a smattering of other religions.
Now I am an agnostic as far as organized religion is concerned, not believing things are true because they are in the Bible (or other religious works), but rather there are many things in the Bible which people have found to be true — such as Ecclesiastes 3. Many of the same "truths" are to be found in all major religions. I believe this tells us mostly about the universal human condition than it does about any god.
Re: Societal Awareness and Understanding
Les,
"I am not confident that we are simply going to snap out of our malaise and everything will be good again. I believe that people need to suffer to see and understand something better."
I think 'better' is becoming more obvious to many who bought the American Dream beyond their means. Lessons like Haiti are making many an underwater mortgage holder rethink what's really important. A period of suffering does seem to remove the denial fog. Or as a Buddhist teacher I know once remarked: People learn in two ways: Sincere effort or suffering. Most seem to require suffering to get on with it.
Re: Societal Awareness and Understanding
loannetter,
I agree about Haiti, but didn't Americans understand the impact of Katrina?
Re: Societal Awareness and Understanding
Bill,
The difference in Katrina and Haiti upon our national psyche has to do with timing and proximity to one's own suffering and personal sense of responsibility. When Katrina happened we were, as a nation, not yet feeling the fear of loss of our very lifestyles as we are now. That came later. Lots of mouthing "but for the grace of God there go I" but no real pain on our home fronts. The images of Katrina struck at our sense of failure for what we should have prevented. Now, surrounded by foreclosure signs and news of our neighbor's and family member's losses every day we are less cucooned in our cottonwool fantasy worlds.
In a way, Haiti seems more real as a possibility. Frankly the denial of our own government to respond to the Katrina crisis created a different kind of pain. It was surreal and horrific and we were (speaking for my circle of influence) deeply ashamed by the callousness of our own government to mobilize a response. Images of redneck sheriffs with dogs on the bridge stopping the fleeing victims etched a deep and painful opening of old wounds of racism. We thought we had risen above such things. Like the old uncle who still swears under his breath the N-word (I grew up in the south) we were told as children to ignore him. I was confused and ashamed by racism and bigotry.
I have often wondered why white middle class evangelists (I knew!) were happier taking their money and messages to Africa than the other side of the tracks where the need is just as great. I have decided it's easier to feel pity than admit your fear and ignorance. Haiti is conveniently not 'our problem'. We didn't allow THEIR substandard building codes and systems plastered over with a fresh coat of white stucco. (Of course we did allow the Corps of Engineers to build substandard levees in New Orleans.) It's easier to feel the Haitian's pain without the deep guilt and regret we feel about Katrina.
Re: Societal Awareness and Understanding
loannetter,
Your last line resonates.