Morning Call [6:58am ET] Because the capital losses we take are so frequent and hurtful, traders have a psychological need to pat themselves on the back occasionally when things go as planned. Today I will give you the anatomy of a single trade, done behind the scenes while the rest of you were listening to me say something about operating like a surgeon, calling a small bounce in $GOLD and pullback in the $USD.
Leading up to the trade, you read the following words in my Morning Call:
Thursday Jan. 28 (7:31am ET) /
Remember; we trade prices, not stories.
Having said that, our technical indicators have been showing that the major capital pools have actually started buying gold this week, and we have taken a couple new positions for short-term trades. We have to be careful because, although $GOLD (1090) has not broken the next technical support at 1075, the $USD first level resistance (78.45) has been broken with a price this morning at 78.925, following a spike last evening to a high of 79.265.
So we are caught between a rock and a hard place with technical support and major fund buying being our rock, but that $USD technical resistance and the George Soros stories being a hard place.
The weight of the evidence however is coming from these 5-day, and 1-, 3-, and 6-month charts for gold, and that is a bearish picture. But until the first level technical support of 1075 is broken, we decided to put on another long position and to hold our other positions.
Friday Jan. 29 (7:11am ET) /
Without belaboring the point, I’ll leave you with the thought that the reappointment of Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke is all about posturing that the global financial crisis is under control. Rather than blind-fold and shoot the perpetrators of the history’s biggest financial disaster, namely Bernanke, Geithner and Paulson, all of whom were on the world stage yesterday, it appears to me that history will be rewritten and those people will be recorded as American heroes, candidates for next year’s Nobel Prize.
Following on what I wrote yesterday about the future of gold, as it became clear to me that Bernanke would be confirmed in the Senate, by an overwhelming majority, I decided to assume the clearly defined risks I discussed and move up to an 8.45% portfolio weighting in precious metals, which is 7.65% in gold company stocks and 0.80% in silver. Among the gold stocks, I hold a 2.7% weighting in Central Fund because it is directly invested in bullion. This is a short-term decision based on my belief that Bernanke is $USD negative.
In Asia-Pacific markets, which were the first to follow the Bernanke vote, my decision appeared to be a bad one. Not one to be easily bluffed, I decided to await the action in Europe this morning. Lo and behold, banks and commodities are up, equities are green, and my day has brightened. Logic and common sense still work.
Let’s see what the rest of the day brings, but I for one already took a place on the yellow brick road.
Spot gold at 7:08am ET Jan. 29, 2010 @ 1083.52
Week in Review Sunday Jan. 31 (4:45pm ET)
This week, $GOLD dropped -$11.20/oz (-1.02%) to $1081.50. A week ago, the $GOLD plunged -$38.20/oz (-3.38%) to close at $1092.70.
Three weeks ago in the WIR, it had soared +$49.80/oz to close at $1137.30, and I remarked that I remember the days when it traded for $35/oz. But, the high price in this cycle ($1161.80) did not make it back to the all-time high of $1226.40 set in early December. I think it’s fair to say I anticipated a pull-back, along with a stronger $USD.
Now, I think it’s probably time for the red hot $USD to take a short break, which is needed to stop the equity market bleeding. Calling all PPT units! That usually means a short-term pop in the $GOLD price. As I say; it’s likely for a short time and not a long-term good time. I think it’s best to sell into strength.
$SILVER lost -$0.80 (-4.68%) to close at $16.20. A week ago the loss was -7.64%, so clearly $SILVER is getting hammered, and I brought to your attention that clear possibility a few weeks ago.
Three weeks ago, in fact, after $SILVER gained +$1.60 (+9.48% W/W) to close at 18.47, up from 16.87, I called the move “surreal”. But I also noted that “There was a high of 18.52, still not up to the 19.45 a month ago. The low was 16.83… A light trading week this week has again not changed my opinions on $SILVER. I think the market wants to see the extent of a correction and the level of support that will set in.”
This week, $COPPER dropped -$29.45 (-8.80%) to 305.25.
Three or four weeks ago (please check when), I offered: “The Freeport-McMoran (FCX) chart may be helpful in figuring out where $COPPER might be headed. There was a peak of $125.07 in May 2008, following which the stock dropped to a low of $15.70 in December 2008. This year there was a steady rise to $87.35 in November. Since then the stock has fallen back and then made a bull run as high as $83.43. This week there was a run up of +9.73% W/W to $88.10. RSI-7 momentum had been falling for the M-W-D price series data.”
A week ago I added, “Not to make a big deal of it, but FCX closed this week at $74.23, and was down W/W by -12.0%”. This week, FCX plunged a further -10.16% to close at 66.69. Another Bingo.
But, if precious metals get a bump with a falling $USD next couple days, the $COPPER and FCX may lift too. But, again, watch the big money sell into strength as the tide has turned.
Monday Feb. 1 (7:15am ET)
It’s early yet, but the indications are that the US Dollar rally may stall here, which would be a boost for my precious metals position. To that end we are watching the March Dollar futures closely. Here is the weekend commentary from INO.com, which is not as near-term Dollar bearish as I am:
The March Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2001-decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.65. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2001-decline crossing at 79.71. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.48. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.98.
With the US Dollar longer term, we have noted support at 78.00 and 77.76 and resistance at 80.26 and 80.58. The last trade was 79.59 (marginally lower this morning).
With the S&P 500 at 1074.4 this morning, we are sticking to our plan to lighten into rallies, noting support at 1069 and 1029 with resistance at 1103 and 1120.
For $GOLD this morning at 1081.6, we call for a range trade, looking for a small bounce here. We noted that support is at 1075 and 1051 while resistance is at 1112 and 1121.
Tuesday Feb. 2 (7:57am ET)
As I see it, the cycle top is already in and the Bulls are fighting only against a rout on the downside – at least until they can position themselves against the Bear by selling stock positions and buying put options. Periodically, as we saw yesterday and likely again today, there is a bit of Quantitative Easing to relieve the selling pressure in order to permit an orderly deleveraging process to unfold.
So for today, it appears we will have higher prices for most equities, commodities and precious metals. But, the charts are telling us that it will not be a good time for a long time.
So, I advise against chasing prices here.
Wednesday Feb. 3 (7:55am ET)
I advise against chasing prices unless you are day trading. This is an opportunity to sell into strength.
Today Feb. 4 (6:15am ET)
So, in the midst of a what I believed was and is a short-, intermediate- and long-term Bull phase for the $USD and Bear phase for $GOLD, $SILVER and $COPPER, I applied a little micro-surgery, calling for a brief Dollar pull-back and metals and precious metals surge. “A short time, not a long time” is what I clearly stated.
Noting that (Freeport-McMoran) FCX had plunged -20.9% in two weeks from $84.30 (Friday Jan 15 close) to $66.69 (Friday Jan 29 close), and $COPPER plunging -8.80% last week, but with a bounce expected off an extreme oversold condition, and the early Monday markets showing a bit of $USD softness and $GOLD holding 1075 crucial support (after several attempts to break it, with even the Soros b.s. being thrown against it), and spot silver lifting a tad bit more than gold in the early hours of the day, I opened my morning conference call with the traders with, “How’s FCX looking?” Patrick said it was up about a buck in the pre-market. I said I wanted to buy at market at the open plus scale in additional positions 20 and 40 cents lower, to a maximum of 2% portfolio weighting.
Here’s the chart.
We were only able to buy a 0.5% portfolio weighting in FCX on Monday morning @ $68.80, well up from the Friday close at $66.69. With a gap like that, pro traders never chase the price higher. The historical trades show an open at $68.13 and a low of $68.05, but I can tell you we were there at the open and got $68.80. I suspect these trades were done overnight and posted in the morning.
The price of FCX did move higher on Monday, hitting $70.33 by 10:30am ET, and looking strong. By the end of the day, the close was $71.59. $USD was weakening and $GOLD, $SILVER and $COPPER were rallying.
Remember my comment about being here (this time) for a short time. Forget the good time; we’re here to make money.
Recall that I had stated the precious metals and metals were showing bearish patterns of lower highs and lower lows? On Tuesday morning, FCX opened at $73.26. We sold at $72.98. In 24 hours, buying the underlying and not the leveraged call options, we made a gain of +6.1% on our cost base of $68.80.
Traders who stayed with their FCX positions saw a low on Wednesday of $69.65, with the close at $70.46. I’m happy with the $72.98, thank you.
The truth is, I don’t like to trade like this. I am no longer a young guy. I’d like to trade every position an average of once every month or two or possibly three. I’d like to have a dozen positions, not 30 or 40. I’d like not to have to get out of bed at 4am to watch overseas markets so that I can assess the risks.
But that’s the thing; the market isn’t about me; it’s about everybody else. All we can do is build our experience, hone our skills, understand and manage the risks, and accept our losses. If we are honest with ourselves, we know that only a small percentage of our trades work out like the FCX, and that trading is hard work. But, when a plan does come together, we have to smile.
This morning, the $USD is firmer, up +0.29% to 79.785, off the 79.89 high that was set about 5:10am ET. Spot silver is at 16.16 (down on the day -1.16%), and spot gold is 1102.23 (down -0.61%). The high yesterday morning was just shy of 1125. The pressure then is down for precious metals. The equity futures are also down about -0.6% at this time.
Have a good day, but if you are a serious student of the market remember to put in some study time. It will pay off.
CTA Trading Desk Report
Well, so much for the thinking that today was going to be a dull day, traders simply twiddling their thumbs until the US unemployment figures were released on Friday morning. Renewed unease about the sovereign debt of Greece, Portugal, and Spain roiled world markets, equity prices cascading lower throughout the entire session.
Risk adverse investors dumped stocks (S&P -3.11%), precious metals (SLV -6.78%, GLD -4.20%), crude oil (USO -4.73%), seeking safety in the US Dollar (DXY +0.74%) and US treasury bonds (TLT +1.23%). Volume was very heavy, decliners swamping advancers, sending the equity market “fear gauge” through the roof (VIX +20.74%). But, we made good money today in the falling market.
We could have made more had we shorted FCX (Freeport McMoran). This morning we described the FCX trade where on Monday morning at the open we bought at $68.80 for an anticipated "dead cat bounce", and then sold 24 hours later at $72.98 for a gain of +6.1%. Regrettably, we said, some traders were left holding the bag as the price closed yesterday at the $70.46 close. Today that bag got a whole lot heavier as FCX closed at $66.74 ($66.53 in after-hours trading).
FCX is now down -8.6% in less than three full sessions since we sold it. That's timing! I wish they all worked out so well.
Seriously; equity markets are at the crossroads, sitting just below some important support levels that we posted here in the past week or so. The inability of the market to mount even a meager intra-day rally certainly does not bode well going forward. But, could big money be pushing prices down a bit below support in order to trap short sellers? Sure, anything is possible, but the weight of evidence is pointing to lower prices going forward. The drop could be considerable.
The S&P futures price finally did take out the November Dubai panic low (1062.25), establishing a bearish pattern of lower tops and lower bottoms.
As was the case last Friday, a higher news-induced rally tomorrow morning, attracting aggressive selling, sets the market up for a panicky fall into the afternoon close.
The debt situation is a major problem for all global equity markets, one not easily solved by rhetoric, promises, or hope. Volume has been increasing on declines, contracting on rallies for several weeks, meaning institutional support for stock prices is deteriorating.
Risk is increasing, people are nervous, and investors should reexamine their equity exposure, making sure hard stops are firmly in place. If prices fall precipitously tomorrow, then next support on the S&P looks to be down around 1025 to 1035. Bulls will need to get prices quickly back above 1080 in order to repel these pesky sellers.
Be careful out there.
Have a great evening.
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Comments
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
Three Upgrades to report:
BHP - to Outperform @ Credit Suisse
BRCM - to Buy @ Brigantine
TCK - to Outperform @ Credit Suisse
Australian interest rates on hold
"Retail sales fell 0.7 per cent in December alone, but rose 1.1 per cent for the December quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported, citing seasonally adjusted numbers. That compares with economists' forecasts for growth of 0.2 per cent and 1.1 per cent, respectively.
The weakness in the key retail sector helps explain the Reserve Bank's caution this week when its board left interest rates unchanged - surprising pundits and investors alike. The pause followed three consecutive monthly rate increases, starting last October."
http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail-sales-in-sur...
It appears that a surprise weakness in retail leading up to christmas was what held the RBA's finger of the rate trigger this week.
I'm a little disturbed by anecdotal accounts of the housing market downunder:
"One BusinessDay reader suggested the relaxation of foreign investment laws in respect of housing was worth investigating. “I live in Box Hill North and have been trying to purchase a family home for my wife and 12 month-old daughter. We've attended numerous auctions without success and now I know why. An agent from Fletchers Balwyn office told me that 75 per cent of all their sales last year were to foreigners.
This is a staggering figure - just think about it - out of every four auctions - only one was purchased by an Australian. No wonder we've been attending auction after auction without success. The story is the same across Melbourne's eastern suburbs with agents claiming anywhere between 33 per cent and 75 per cent of sales are now to foreign investors - predominantly Chinese.”"
http://www.smh.com.au/business/bubble-trouble-for-...
That the chinese are moving in on the Australian market doesn't surprise me - Jim Chanos is bearish on the Chinese real estate market. But if China pops then so does the Australian economy and its real estate market. Perhaps not the best diversification for the Chinese.
Dan Denning, an investment adviser, is on the record for asserting a doubling of new home owner commitments with the aid of govt. grants since Jan 2008, making first time live-in buyers over 25% of the new commitment to housing finance in Australia. That means in 1 year the govt. doubled the number of new home owner commitments to housing as an asset class by dangling a wad of cash.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/04/30/crikey-counter...
Surprise surprise, job advertisements are dropping hardest in major urban areas reflecting difficulties with the labor market and inflation saw its most important uptick during January in the last six months, which was expected to tilt the RBA's hand in raising interest rates. We can see now that it has a very delicate balancing act to perform.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/job-...
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/infl...
AIG
long @ 23.70
AIG:IEF RSI 7 day 18.78
Do your own homework.
TM
TM:IEF RSI 7 day 21. Max pain for Feb 80. ST trade.
Trailing a buy stop.
Do your own homework
Blücher
Les,
The name seemed familiar...
Then it hit me. I was thinking of Frau Blücher (Cloris Leacnman) in "The Young Frankenstein" (That's Frankensteen!")
LOL
If CSCO doesn't hold ,
could be bad for investor psyche.... If those in the know were buying in late January and February, 09', then perhaps when that tax-wise, 366 day-time frame hits, there could be a wave of selling... that is what I was thinking outloud a few monts ago, as April approaches..
Re: If CSCO doesn't hold ,
* " wave of selling "... meant the market in general... April wasn't referenced for This years taxes, of course.. just a point in time that happens to coincide with the previous uptrend of 09'..
Cara 100 Update
Upgrades:
BRCM - to Buy @ Broadpoint. PT = $36
BRCM - to Overweight @ GC Research
Drama
Les,
All apologies. I was just trying to make a joke with a play of words on reality TV and that other site while playing along with Vads comments.Believe me, I am cheering for you. In addition I wanted to point out the entertainment value you add to both sites. Your presence make both much more interesting. Later if I get time i will share with the board a devestating time when I took a stop off. Any mistakes a trader makes are probably not new one's.
Bob
gold
ouch....
the usual pre-market dump,
im not even looking at the shares today, the only time volume comes in strong is on down days the past while, so let sleeping dogs lie.
this washout will at some point lead to much higher prices but nto right now, tehre is too much reason to be dollar bullish because of the false notion of the flight to safety.
Cara 100 Update (Final)
BRCM - estimates boosted at Government Sachs through 2011. Company is seeing higher sales and a return in gross margins. Neutral rating and $32 price target.
CSCO - price target raised at Credit Suisse to $32 from $28. Strong 2Q10 results and favorable outlook. Maintain 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates at $1.54 and $1.75, respectively. Outperform rating.
EXC - numbers lowered at Government Sachs. EXC estimates were cut through 2012. Company is facing lower generation margins and higher fuel costs. Neutral rating and new $52 price target.
cycc
cyclacel pharma is having one wild week....smart money doesn't chase!...smart money doesn't chase? RSIw-59 RSId-42
I am really tired of being protected!
I have being trying to short some ETFs. It seems for my protection they have prohibited me from shorting ETFS.
"Non-traditional Exchange-traded funds and notes (ETFs and ETNs) are no longer eligible for margin although purchases are permitted in your account. In addition, new or opening transactions in options for non-traditional ETFs/ETNs and short sales in non-traditional ETFs/ETNs are prohibited. This is in response to concerns raised by regulators about the complexity and high-risk nature of these securities which require daily monitoring."
Does anyone else have these restrictions? Broker suggestions please.
Bob
Pennsylvania State Capital Mulls Bankruptcy as a Budget Option
I just read that on the wires. i didn't even know PA was in trouble. interesting.
I guess I should have become a bankruptcy lawyer.
Re: gold (observation)
From my observations it appears that gold drops when the other markets drop and rises when the other markets rise.
Ok. time to remove CSCo from my real time ticker
i know how that story is going to end.
Re: Ok. time to remove CSCo from my real time ticker
NY... watching for the $ 22.96 print....
Re: I am really tired of being protected!
bobbyo,
I had the same issue a year ago. I conferred with my broker (who I have known since he was in high school) and he gave me the company reasoning...
"This policy was instituted to prevent clients who suddenly lose money from expecting an adjustment from us for not having stopped them."
I mentioned several larger losses I had taken previously on individual stocks, bonds and mutual funds and said, "I assume then, that I can get adjustments to those losses. Right?
And...
If these ETFs do exceedingly well, I'm sure I will be compensated for not having been allowed to buy them. Right?
Obviously not.
I then told him they could either allow me to make my own mistakes, or I would transfer all my funds to another brokerage house who would.
They sent me a letter to sign (CYA form) stating I accepted responsibility for such risk. Nothing new, but I refuse to have someone else make my mistakes for me.
Re: Blücher
Better put the horse's in the barn.... now !!
Re: I am really tired of being protected!
Shorting both sides of leveraged ETF's has worked for me. The math is compelling. Look at QLD and QID over the last two years and match them up with the QQQQ levels. The divergences are not decay but the way they are marked to market each day. I suspect these and others will be withdrawn in the near future especially if the class actions against the brokers is successful.
Just a thought.
Watch XLF $14 level
its flirting with disaster.
PM are being killed today
My PM fear indicators are as high today as early July 2009 (great time to buy) or early September 2008 (great time to short).
I guess Bill is right, maybe another crash is coming!
Got a big order in for BAC at $ 9.90
just in case I die, so my kids can reap the rewards !!
Bought lots of DGP in the panuc
Underwater at present due to starting before the "get me out at any price" folks.
Time will tell. I will probably have to turn the screens off to avoid panicking myself.
Just imagine what the level of panic will be when people realize they own dollars, and that the US is in much worse shape than Greece. It will happen one of these days. At least Greece is TRYING to reduce their deficits.
Vin Diesel may call your house today
"XLF is a great buying opp of a lifetime. blah blah blah."
http://bit.ly/aqOSBO.
SEC settles with BAC... $ 150 million... ??????
wtf ?? are they serious...
What does all this mumbo gumbo actually mean????
I can't seem to understand what this release is try to say...Is this just a bunch of paper shuffling or is it meant to be some type of damage control for a future news release? C is down -.11 -3.26% tells me the news release is not good...or maybe a near future news release is going to be really bad for peoples 401k's/shareholders/or taxpayers. Is anyone up on reading financial code? Where is 3 billion in excess cash coming from?
9:00 AM ET 2/4/10 | BusinessWire
Citigroup Inc. today announced the results of its offer to purchase for cash (the "Offer") any and all of the series of its notes (the "Notes") set forth in the table below. As of the Expiration Date, which was 5:00 p.m. New York time on Feb. 3, 2010, approximately $3.02 billion aggregate principal amount of Notes was validly tendered and not withdrawn or were subject to binding commitments to sell to Citi. This previously announced action is part of a liability management strategy that utilizes excess cash to retire generally older vintage debt nearing maturity. These transactions are not expected to have any impact on Citi's structural liquidity.
Citi has accepted for purchase all Notes validly tendered and not validly withdrawn and expects to settle all tenders and commitments on February 8, 2010 (the "Settlement Date"). The aggregate U.S. dollar amount indicated above is based on U.S. dollar exchange rates as of February 3, 2010.
The table below sets forth additional detail regarding the Notes to be purchased.
Title of Security CUSIP / ISIN No. Aggregate Principal Aggregate Principal Aggregate Principal Amount Amount to be Amount Expected to Outstanding Purchased be Prior Outstanding After to the Offer Settlement U.S. Dollar Notes
4.625% Notes due 2010 172967DA6 / $1,250,000,000 $641,695,300 $608,304,700
US172967DA60
5.125% Notes due 2011 172967DH1 / $2,000,000,000 $293,486,000 $1,706,514,000
US172967DH14
Non-U.S. Dollar Notes
0.700% Notes due 2010 JP584119B360 JPY 25,000,000,000 JPY 7,800,000,000 JPY 17,200,000,000
1.510% Notes due 2010 JP584119A768 JPY 30,000,000,000 JPY 3,200,000,000 JPY 26,800,000,000
Floating Rate Notes due 22 June 2010 JP584119E760 JPY 30,000,000,000 JPY 24,700,000,000 JPY 5,300,000,000
0.740% Notes due 2010 JP584119A594 JPY 75,000,000,000 JPY 35,500,000,000 JPY 39,500,000,000
Floating Rate Notes due 2010 XS0233760247 GBP 500,000,000 GBP 392,549,000 GBP 107,451,000
1.750% Notes due 2010 CH0022549015 CHF 350,000,000 CHF 74,440,000 CHF 275,560,000
Floating Rate Notes due 9 June 2010 AU300CGRP049 A$450,000,000 A$367,180,000 A$82,820,000
5.750% Notes due 9 June 2010 AU300CGRP031 A$800,000,000 A$316,020,000 A$483,980,000
Title of Security CUSIP / ISIN No. Aggregate Principal Aggregate Principal Aggregate Principal Amount Amount to be Amount Expected to Outstanding Purchased be Prior Outstanding After to the Offer Settlement U.S. Dollar Notes 4.625% Notes due 2010 172967DA6 / $1,250,000,000 $641,695,300 $608,304,700 US172967DA60 5.125% Notes due 2011 172967DH1 / $2,000,000,000 $293,486,000 $1,706,514,000 US172967DH14 Non-U.S. Dollar Notes 0.700% Notes due 2010 JP584119B360 JPY 25,000,000,000 JPY 7,800,000,000 JPY 17,200,000,000 1.510% Notes due 2010 JP584119A768 JPY 30,000,000,000 JPY 3,200,000,000 JPY 26,800,000,000 Floating Rate Notes due 22 June 2010 JP584119E760 JPY 30,000,000,000 JPY 24,700,000,000 JPY 5,300,000,000 0.740% Notes due 2010 JP584119A594 JPY 75,000,000,000 JPY 35,500,000,000 JPY 39,500,000,000 Floating Rate Notes due 2010 XS0233760247 GBP 500,000,000 GBP 392,549,000 GBP 107,451,000 1.750% Notes due 2010 CH0022549015 CHF 350,000,000 CHF 74,440,000 CHF 275,560,000 Floating Rate Notes due 9 June 2010 AU300CGRP049 A$450,000,000 A$367,180,000 A$82,820,000 5.750% Notes due 9 June 2010 AU300CGRP031 A$800,000,000 A$316,020,000 A$483,980,000
Citi's affiliate Citigroup Global Markets Inc. acted as the dealer manager for the Offer. Global Bondholder Services Corporation was the depositary and information agent with respect to the Notes denominated in U.S. dollars. Lucid Issuer Services Limited was the tender agent and information agent with respect to Notes that are both denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars and that are held at Euroclear or Clearstream.
This press release is neither an offer to purchase nor a solicitation to buy any of the Notes nor is it a solicitation for acceptance of the Offer. Citi made the Offer only by, and pursuant to the terms of, the Offer to Purchase and the related Letter of Transmittal previously distributed to holders of Notes. The Offer was not made to (nor were tenders of Notes accepted from or on behalf of) holders of Notes in any jurisdiction in which the making or acceptance thereof would not be in compliance with the securities, blue sky or other laws of such jurisdiction. This announcement must be read in conjunction with the Offer to Purchase and, where applicable, the related Letter of Transmittal.
United Kingdom. The communication of the Offer to Purchase and any other documents or materials relating to the Offer was not made and such documents and/or materials have not been approved by an authorized person for the purposes of Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Accordingly, such documents and/or materials were not distributed to, and must not be passed on to, the general public in the United Kingdom. The communication of such documents and/or materials as a financial promotion was only made to those persons in the United Kingdom falling within the definition of investment professionals (as defined in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the "Order") or within Article 43(2) of the Order, or to other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated in accordance with the Order.
Citi, the leading global financial services company, has approximately 200 million customer accounts and does business in more than 140 countries. Through Citicorp and Citi Holdings, Citi provides consumers, corporations, governments and institutions with a broad range of financial products and services, including consumer banking and credit, corporate and investment banking, securities brokerage, and wealth management. Additional information may be found at www.citigroup.com or www.citi.com.
Re: Bought lots of DGP in the panuc
I reached my mental (soft) stops for SLV and GDX and not sure how to proceed. I guess I should liquidate. It's a shame considering that SLV RSI(7) is at 20. I do remember however that it reached 10 twice in 2008. GDX is slightly different as its RSI(7) bounces from 10 and it's in high 20'.
Interestingly, dollar is flat for the last hour but everything else keeps falling.
Re: What does all this mumbo gumbo actually mean????
Whew...their offer to purchase totals 21,350 million dollars. But other than that someone else will have to tell us what that means.
Re: Vin Diesel may call your house today
Follow up to above video.
http://bit.ly/cZL888
There is a lot of truth to this. I interned at Merrill while at NYU undergrad without pay, and heard the most unbelievable dialogs. Sales training 101 under the gun. Little did i know i was being trained in sales then, I went to learn finance. Til this day, when i look back at all the bs sales training at each tech company i have worked at, there has been no better closing sales training than wall st.
This is why when Bill says stocks are sold, i say Amen.
Waiting for this little beauty to show its colors..
Sons... Bet most of you guys have traded this twister over the years... any thoughts on Voip that AT&T, etc., seem to be advancing... Sons has a ton of cash...(and a ton of shares ! )
Re: Bought lots of DGP in the panuc
Falling due to panic selling perhaps. We may just see gold hit 1051 support level today.
Re: Watch XLF $14 level
I am watching that too. Looks like the Armageddon in Equities and Gold may have just started Today. needs a couple more days of confirmation. I think!!
EDIT: Looks like USD may break above 80 today, will wait and see...
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s
Correction
Sure looks to me like this correct is going to hit the 200 DMA and I think it will go lower. If I were a gabmler I would say I think we could see a similar correction to that of 1975. People will be buying at a 10% dip and the market will need to inflict some pain on them in the short term in order to get as many participants out as possible before resuming its uptrend.
Re: SEC settles with BAC... $ 150 million... ??????
I think the Govt has their hands all throughout this mess and the SEC was probably given some pressure by the gov to settle
Re: Bought lots of DGP in the panuc
It will turn around as soon as I give up and sell. That's the REAL world.
Re: Bought lots of DGP in the panuc
I too reached some mental stops. Maybe cheapy bought my DGP shares! But spot gold is down more than 4% in minutes-ok maybe an hour. SPY and DJIA down 2% and the dollar up less than 1 %. The $VIX is really telling a story though, the fear factor up 16%. I wish the story was clearer. Something is up (and down) and some of us will get knocked all the way out of the market.
I guess when you're in the herd rushing to the cliff its hard to tell if it was started by a pride of lions slaughtering your herd mates or if some ass got stung by a bee!
good luck out there
MSCI Brazil Index hits 200-day moving average
The ETF came very close to touching the 200-day moving average, last at $63.52. A breakdown below this moving average would break the longer-term uptrend. In that event, the following support levels could become downside objectives: $62.67, $61.59, $60.13. Resistance is currently at $65.07.
PS: Alert from ATP
Re: Bought lots of DGP in the panuc
We all have those moments but we will have our day in the sun as well, just have to be patient. According to Twiggs this morning a breach of 1080 signals a primary downtrend, Bill has the next support at 1051 and i believe that this can go much lower, we will get bounces off of support but its a tricky game to play trying to make money on bounces against the trend.
Order in at $ 8.82 on AUY....
will adjust accordingly...
For all your FAZ SKF lovers
http://bit.ly/9RAdVw. RIFIN will need to close below $750 to show me some lovin.
Re: SEC settles with BAC... $ 150 million... ??????
With the Wall Street corruption pandemic that has spread faster than H1N1 around the world, I think the SEC ought to become a revenue center for the US taxpayer.
Can't wait till the mark to ' market ' numbers come out
in a few months....
Toyota now including Prius in the recall
woooooo.
when it rains it pours!
S&P downgrades Berkshire's debt.
man oh man. what a day. I guess GS was already positioned short before today?
"When the short rally covering comes, we're selling it." CME
From the CME Floor.
http://bit.ly/awwLs3. At the end "When the short rally covering comes, we're selling it. See you tomorrow" hahaha.
GS down more than JPM, C, BAC
percentage wise. i usually do not see that.
CSCO just make a new low for the day. UBS down even more than GS, cracking its $13 support.
Re: GS down more than JPM, C, BAC
UBS down even more than GS
Translated as....Growing Pains!
Dumi ng everything I own
That's the way I feel
I'm gonna buy a keyboard where the P key works, soon, too
Life is just one misery after another
I had HOPED to see 1200 gold again this year, now I have no hope whatsoever
FSLR - not quite done yet, but getting close
Me likey. I'll be looking to start a long position on an extreme sell off in the markets. Preferably around a new 52 week low. The trick will be the response to their Q. Recall that last Q they (intentionally) delayed reporting/recording a big sale transaction. That'll show this Q now and may skew the reaction a bit in the current climate (to the upside).
GL!
only 2 hours left for the bounce.
will it come today? tomorrow, monday?
Re: FSLR - not quite done yet, but getting close
$ 78 - $ 84 may present an opportunity .... So many unfilled gaps from the start, but this area may be firm...
NYUGrad, Do you Still Think Market Reversal will Happen Tomorrow
NYUGrad, Do you still see a bounce coming on the heel of the huge BAD Employment numbers tomorrow?? You think reversal in the market will take place then using the reverse psychology approach :)
BTW, we didn't break above 80 today, we were very close though 79.97 for the HIGH but I still think it's possible. After all, the FEDS needs a fake stronger USD to justify another stimulus package this year or next year to prevent or slow down the dollar collapse..
Re: NYUGrad, Do you Still Think Market Reversal will Happen ...
I had my if then scenarios prepared, but have revised them after today.
Dow has tested 10039 five times. Watch that level. if it cant hold, the elevator will continue down with its passengers on board.
but eventually something will stop the free fall. And if that happens i will exit my shorts, and wait for the bounce.
I do not plan to play the bounce. Just a cheaper entry point for my shorts or call options on inverse etfs, as the VIX awakes.
I will be looking for some ' screamers ' in the land of
low floats, probably Monday...
A close above 10,075
I would begin to close some positions and wait to re-enter to the downside.
did you all see that rejection at 10,072?
that's the range, until it isn't. 10,039-10,074 ish.
Toyota is being made into a villain
for politics sake. it is not like people are dying left and right from these glitches. This is the case of great company, broken stock.
When the fog clears and bottoms are in, Toyota will be a great pickup for a portfolio. Especially since they plan to spin off "Prius" as a brand with multiple cars underneath, much like "Scion".
If i won the mega million jackpot, i would simply buy TM at near bottoms.
EDIT: which is sad! because Toyota/Lexus employ more Americans than U.S car manufacturers.
10,072 got rejected just now again
are you all watching this?
Final hour
http://bit.ly/d5lVFb
Re: Toyota is being made into a villain
"If i won the mega million jackpot, i would simply buy TM at near bottoms."
That's a very good idea... there is just one little glitch to it (VeryBigGrin)
Overall though I agree with you on the issue itself - a lot more is getting involved in this issue than just technical matters. My personal feeling is, it's very very far from over.
Re: Toyota is being made into a villain
Agreed. I wouldnt buy TM today or next week. I am talking the ultimate destruction bottom. $9.00 usd sound good per share? :P
here is that pesky 10,039.
and there it goes.
Re: Toyota is being made into a villain
That's the problem with bottoms... each of them looks like ultimate until ultimater comes along again and again, until we reach ultimatest.
Where is the DOW?
i dont even see a ticker for it anymore on my list.
Ok. my system is back. ugly. just ugly
Mental note. today's range is tomorrows resistance.
keep it simple.
Re: Mental note. today's range is tomorrows resistance.
NYUGrad, are you covering any of your Inverse ETFs shorts today like FAZ, SRS, TYP, ..etc? Or want to carry them overnight to see what Friday brings?
Your comments appreciated..
thx
Where is Gold going?
Now that gold has breached the 1075-1080 area, is gold going substantially lower? Maybe 1050-1030 or even 960?
Any thoughts out there?
Re: Mental note. today's range is tomorrows resistance.
I am still following my if then scenarios. We haven't broke and closed above 10,075 (but 20 min to do so). so i kept all my chips on the table.
If we gap down tomorrow and eventually one day retest 10,035-10,039, will add more shorts at that resistance. If prices can muster to close above 10,050, i might sell and wait for re-entry.
This is not advice. Just my observations. I can be 100% misguided.
Ken Lewis Charged With Fraud
Former Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis Charged With Fraud; It's Only A Start
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
------------
"Gloriosky Zero, it makes me feel glad all over!"
(Annie Rooney, comic strip character)
disconnect from U$D
I will reiterate my point. The sell off was started by strong dollar but snowballed independently from dollar since 10AM. Sounds like panic selling to me.
Re: Where is Gold going?
I'm not clever enough to figure out decisions correctly based on fundamentals, but technically speaking the attached chart looks like a pretty clear down signal for gold. Previous support violated on large volume (intraday chart, 3:35 PM)
EDIT: Changed the attachment to show end of day chart. If you're looking for positives, the tail is slightly encouraging, and differs from the S&P Candlestick for today.
Re: Drama
lol bobbyo, I despise reality television and all it represents. sorry, it was an analogy guaranteed to tick me off. cheers.
Re: Where is Gold going?
Gold has gone from 680 in october 2008 to 1226 in december 2009 (or whatever it was exactly). Those 500+ points need to be followed by a correction. Now as 1075 finally is broken I am looking for support at 1018, 953 or even 889. If you ask somebody else you will probably get other targets, probably better ones also. I will be loading up at 1018 (1000-1030) already. At 950 I would be very aggressive, but I am unsure if I ever will get that lucky again. If 1075 is broken upwards with heavy volume I will buy directly.
I watch HUI for information purposes. 376-333-290 are my targets, the first one already being taken out. I am also looking to get long silver futures if the price is right.
I present to you Blackrock (BLK)
http://bit.ly/8Z4S8s
XLF support levels
Simple as can be, i think?
http://bit.ly/a1CUBN
Is America shutting down?
I always wondered how States and Municipalities in the US had the legal authority to print their own money (i.e., to incur liabilities greater than their assets via deficit spending). Now the issue appears to be coming full circle. 'Monroe' forwarded me the following email. Is this an accurate portrayal of America today? Evidently he thinks that NY and NJ are right in line.
Bill,
"More than a third of the streetlights in Colorado Springs will go dark Monday. The police helicopters are for sale on the Internet. The city is dumping firefighting jobs, a vice team, burglary investigators, beat cops dozens of police and fire positions will go unfilled.
The parks department removed trash cans last week, replacing them with signs urging users to pack out their own litter.
Neighbors are encouraged to bring their own lawn mowers to local green spaces, because parks workers will mow them only once every two weeks. If that.
Water cutbacks mean most parks will be dead, brown turf by July; the flower and fertilizer budget is zero.
City recreation centers, indoor and outdoor pools, and a handful of museums will close for good March 31 unless they find private funding to stay open. Buses no longer run on evenings and weekends. The city won't pay for any street paving."
Re: Is America shutting down?
Here is Mayor Bloomberg's 1+ hr video on his budget cuts planned.
http://bit.ly/aJut1P
Police, Firefighters,etc = 23,000 city jobs.
I am afraid times sq may revert back to the hooker infested 80's.
I see armies of parking ticket officers everywhere. 5 per block in some areas.
Thus my desire to leave sooner than later. However, these budget cuts are needed. Bloomberg is doing what he must, vs printing more money somehow. But i as a resident have the choice to bounce outta here.
Re: Is America shutting down?
NYUGrad,
If you can run your business from Bahamas, come on down! This is a pay-as-you-go cash society.
Re: Is America shutting down?
"Now is a good time to buy (or sell) a municipality." NAR...
States and locals 'print' money as you know just like Greece or Spain. They sell bonds. Their taxing authority is their 'bond' so to speak. Given the blowout spreads of the Med countries vs. the Bunds, it looks suspeciously like Lehman, AIG before the crack up. Perhaps Thailand in the late 90's is a better example.
Greece cannot print Drachma anymore so a 'run' on the country takes the form of spreads. The same applies to California.
In my view, most municipalities have been as profligate as the Feds. My stupid school district just completed a $7,000,000 Natatorium aka indoor cement pond. I live in the fastest growing county (or at least top 5) in the U.S. for the last 10 years and our YoY sales tax receipts are DOWN 5.6%.
In states with unionized municipal workers, the outcry will be strike threats and slowdowns. In non unionized municipalities, citizen backlash will be felt.
Actually this is a good thing. Pay as you go (or can afford) is the only way to go.
Re: gold (observation)
well that is pretty simple, try 250 to 1226 gold as the sm goes down and apply the same logic.
sorry it does not work, crystal clear
SS
ALOHA !!
On Feb 3rd, Wednesday, the US Treasury had over $22BIL USD outlays for Social Security. If you add up the elder entitlements(SS, MED, MAID) then the US government has spent nearly $500BIL USD in four months, which is running at $121BIL USD per month. We have yet to see the bulk of the baby-boomers get onto Social Security and Medicare, but people my age can be on it within five years.
While we hear about Obama's Budget for next year of $3.8TRIL and everyone gets hot under the collar, even Rush Limbaugh! Yet not many of us realize that as of Feb 3rd, on Wednesday, the Obama regime has already spent $3.804TRIL USD in four months, per US Treasury Withdrawal data for FY2010.
How much tax revenues(income, corp, excise, estate, etc) have come into the US Treasury in that same time period? Only $675BIL USD(not even a TARP) ... For every $1USD the US Treasury receives in taxes it spends $6USD. For every $1USD of tax revenue the US Treasury issues $29USD in debt(marketable and non-marketable).
If the USA were a EU member we would be kicked out, so if it were not for the Parthenon we'd be Greece!
Re: disconnect from U$D
Let volume double. Then I will worry about panic.
Re: Is America shutting down?
Most states and municipalities do have to balance their budgets, no deficit spending. Ditto school districts. Lots of pain.
I Media
ALOHA !!
Today I was asked to join I Media as a contributor. I Media is based in Dubai.
This is off their website ...
Imedia LLC was established in August 2008 as the UAE’s first fully integrated media company.
The Imedia portfolio includes Alrroya Aleqtisadiya newspaper - the region’s first Arabic language daily financial paper - alrroya.com an online bi-lingual portal, mobile services and contract publishing.
At Imedia our focus is on delivering business information from our offices in Abu Dhabi and Dubai in context to what is happening in the UAE, the Middle East and internationally, accompanied by analysis and insight.
At Imedia we believe knowledge is power and works best when it is continuously updated and integrated into a professional’s daily workflow.
Imedia is the result of the Emirates’ business community’s desire to have up to date information through multiple channels.
I Media Link: http://www.i-media.ae/
I as yet do not know much details, so I have made no commitment. It is interesting that the buyers of US Debt, our creditors, are interested in reading my US Treasury reports. I guess they want to know where their money is going ... There are no bigger "flows of funds" than the funds that flow through the US Treasury every day!
Re: Is America shutting down?
This is how the US, no, the world, will shake off its over-consumption of debt. Five years time for everyone to go bankrupt and we will be off to the races again. When governments find themselves the only ones in debt, they will inflate their way out from massive state bail-outs. Inflation down the road. There is no quick fix. Only a trading range and volatility. Everything will be a trade for a while.
IVAN
This is a Robert Friedland thing and it seems to be catching fire of late. Knowing that Friedland is a fairly notorious stock promoter, is anyone playing this one? It looks like they might actually have something this time.
MMR strikes me much the same way...anyways, just trying to sort through today's wreckage to find a few dented gems I can play for a quick scalp (or perhaps a long one if we are really entering the "el fluso" chart phase for the macro markets).
Re: Is America shutting down?
Geoffrey,
Could this be like the 1970's in the market, only worse?
Re: Correction
Sure looks to me like this correction is going to hit the 200 DMA and I think it will go lower. If I were a gambler I would say I think we could see a similar correction to that of 1975. People will be buying at a 10% dip and the market will need to inflict some pain on them in the short term in order to get as many participants out as possible before resuming its uptrend.
tof- Well, I am a gambler, and I agree. The market, like the casino, is in many respects all about pain. Newbies invariably experience pain. It's the old-timers who return to the tables to lose again and again that get me wondering.
When it comes to the markets, it's really not much different. There are exceptions, but I think the adage that most day traders lose money (similar to the adage that most new restaurants close within 5 years) holds water. The ones that are still around after say, 5 years? They're worth listening to.
Oops.
Oh Crap. Three years of being educated here and like a raw-rookie I've probably gone and undone everything gained. Search for that candle at the absolute top in the markets over the last 3 days and you will find my orders which finally, and fully, reinsert all the fruits of my labour back into this game. Ouch.
A new stock market investing strategy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So if I were to believe the headlines it would seem that Wallstreet woke up today and suddenly realized we might have an unemployment problem. Then they surmised that having many people not having any income may be bad for business. So rightly they decide to take down the market 3%. The beauty of efficient markets makes me misty. I think the biggest oxy-moran in the land is that we call these Wallstreet dudes. "THE SMART MONEY." I believe us independent traders give these chumps way too much credit. I think one would do real well in the market if they said to themselves, " Logically speaking, what would be the stupidest investing idea possible at this time and then actually going out and buying the stupidest investment. I think you would clean up. Planning on writing a book on this very subject. Working title: "Idiotic Stock Trading Ideas for Smartys." I think I may have a best seller.
Bob
Re: Oops.
Mac- Not necessarily more than 'ouch,' however. What if you were to cut your losses at some predetermined point (stops, mental stops, whatever)? Then it would simply be a matter of (a) having entered a position, (b) watched it go against you (how often does that occur, maybe 60% of the time?), and (c) exited at -x%, as planned. No regrets, no self-recrimination, no remorse. Well, maybe some. We are homo sapiens, after all.
Will the USD$ Continue its Move above the 80% level???
UPDATE..
As I expected earlier today, we did finally break thru the 80% level on the USD$ Index and traded as high as 80.238, so far I don't see a sell off in the dollar after breaking this resistance target which could suggest further move on the up side and opposite down move on the GOLD prices. Perhaps this may change once we hit another level of resistance on the dollar or a level of support on the GOLD.
As I said before, there is no way manipulation can continue to succeed keeping the markets up forever by FEDS buying futures after market to fool people that EVERY THING IS OK and fool innocent investors to keep buying when markets open next day or buying the dips. At one point this fake game is going be discovered and everyone will find out the reality and realize it’s no longer a fair and free traded market.
It's just simple, continuous high unemployment numbers means no housing recovery means no economic recovery means no sustainable high stock prices. Stock prices have to come down to be traded fairly as they should be. Until this happens, smart investors will play this market on the short side and sell into strength or buy PUTS. For the last 3 months, I have been shorting the market on every rally and using close stops to protect gains and cut losses. I don't see any better strategy than this for the time being until market tells me otherwise.
GL to you ALL
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s
Food inflation up (17%) in India
http://www.hindu.com/2010/02/05/stories/2010020554...
Adam Hewison's support areas to watch
"Here are the levels on the indices:
S&P 500 key level to watch 1,029.38
NASDAQ key level to watch 2,024.27
Dow Jones at 9,678.95."
http://bit.ly/b0N4d8
Gold to hit $1,350 - $1,400 by late Spring - John Embry
GRONINGEN -
Gold should continue to consolidate over the next few weeks but, the next big move is likely to be up.
This is the view of Sprott Asset Management's chief investment strategist John Embry, who says he is looking for the price of the yellow metal to hit around $1,350 to $1,400 by late spring.
Speaking on the inaugural Mineweb Gold Weekly Podcast, Embry says the recent downward trend seen in the gold price is nothing more than a healthy correction.
"Gold had a 300 dollar plus run in US dollars from July into the early part of December and it has come under heavy pressure subsequently. It certainly has engendered immense bearishness amongst the commentators which is actually good from my perspective. I think the fundamentals are undisturbed and as a result it is setting up for another strong buy."
http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/p...
Psych Flux By Tim Knight, a good read...
Among the body of the trading populous, there is surely a subset of folks that are bearish and wanted to short the devil out of the market once a huge bounce took place, and now they are furious with themselves for having missed the boat.
I'm not in this camp, but I'm certainly partly angry with myself for not being even more aggressive. This is effortless to say in retrospect, of course. Had the market been up 268 points instead of down the same amount, I would be upset with myself for very different reasons! As I've said many times - and will say many times more - traders are rarely happy.
I don't blame the folks that held back, though. I was mentioning "the bounce" repeatedly recently. Well, I think we got our bounce. When, you ask? Monday and Tuesday! Yep, that was the big bounce! Whoop-dee-freakin'-do!
The psychology that has caused would-be bears to hold back.........and caused your long-suffering narrator to not be as aggressive as he might have been.........has easy-to-identify origins. Let's face it, for the past ten months:
+ Every dip was a buying opportunity;
+ The government clearly was not going to let equities fall;
+ Goldman Sachs wasn't going to let equities fall;
+ Short positions were good for one day; two days, tops;
+ Just like in the movies and on television, we all knew that things were going to work out fine in the end.
It is my contention that the reality has changed. My response to the above five points is:
- Rallies are now selling/shorting opportunities. The kind of event we saw on Monday/Tuesday is a gift to bears. I understand Cramer was jumping all over the place with excitement on Tuesday after the close. That makes sense, given the man's track record and the psychology of the market.
- The government has bigger fish to fry than the stock market. The doe-eyed optimism from just one short year ago is utterly gone, and I imagine Obama might be quite content to leave the office after one term, Lyndon Johnson style. It's going to be a job that nobody wants.
- If there is one homogeneous religion on Wall Street, it's the worship of money. Goldman cares about profits and profits only, and whether it's the short side or the long side, they're going to make profits happen.
- Closing out short positions after one or two good days can produce some quick and tidy profits, but meaningful profits require some patience - - and some tolerance for swings up and down. I've been sitting tight on my shorts, even though days like Monday and Tuesday make it a bit nerve-wracking.
The fifth bullet point - - about how everything is going to work out just fine - - is something that simply isn't true. The video-saturated public gets accustomed to Happy Endings, because that's how things are supposed to go. But think about the everyday people of Germany in 1935...........or American in 1860........or Japan in 1940.........or China in 1949. These were regular folks, not much different than you or me, just trying to provide for their families, live their lives, and get along. Do you really think the fact they didn't expect the horrors that awaited them around the corner made any difference? Of course not.
We are living in a slow-motion train wreck, and no one knows how the movie is going to end. I do believe, however, that even though no one on the planet knows if the environment we're going to find ourselves in is going to be (1) deflationary, or (2) inflationary, neither of those scenarios is going to produce a happy result. In other words, we know things are going to end badly. We just don't know which flavor of bad.
In the meantime, tomorrow is going to be much more interesting than your run-of-the-mill trading day. There is no reason at all the Dow won't move up 300 points. There also isn't any reason it won't move down 300 points. Irrespective of what it does tomorrow, I think a new general trend is in place, and I think everything changed starting on January 20th, no matter what the next few days holds.
Posted by Tim Knight at 6:47 PM in Bulls/Bears, Federal Government, Hall of Fame, Investment Banks, Market Direction, Psychology | Permalink | 208 Insightful Comments and 0 Reactions
When a firm makes predictions on their brochure for 2010...
be weary. As i shop for put options on BLK, my curiosity brought me to their website and they conveniently display two pdf's. The 1st one is very worrisome as they have a multitude of 2010 predictions.
Seeing that 90% of their activity is for institutions, I am assuming these sales brochures are meant for private investors. besides, the "info" was accessible for free! I still am not sure of buying puts on blk just yet. maybe selling calls on it is one strategy.
1. http://bit.ly/cSSsSN
2. http://bit.ly/dla2UG
I haven't looked at fundamentals in a while, but for comparison sake:
GS $150.80
Market Cap: 77.46B
P/E (ttm): 6.81
EPS (ttm): 22.13
BLK $212.77
Market Cap: 39.87B
P/E (ttm): 34.71
EPS (ttm): 6.09
Now if a firm (GS), who wins 99.99% of their trades, and has the secret devotion of the govt, sec, and God, and access to unlimited risk free money, I have to think that BLK needs a hair cut.
Pennies from Heaven
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ih425d5EoWQ&feature...
Re: Gold to hit $1,350 - $1,400 by late Spring - John Embry
ah yes, Mr. Embry of Sprott,
lets see how their predictions have turned out via their own IPO?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SII.TO&p=D&yr=2&m...
EUR/USD not doing too hot overnight
EDIT: working link here.
http://twitpic.com/11g60g.
Re: Correction
2nd, Re: the one's worth listening to - Who are your favorites?
Black Box Belief!
ODDS on tomorrows close for s+P.
plus or minus two points.
1:1 1080
1:2 1042
1:3 1073
1:3 1063
1:10 1019
1:10 1103
Place your bets.
Talking about the 70's stock market
I'm seeing references to the 70's stock market, which I am too young to know from experience, so I've been looking around for info to help me get a grip on it.
Here is a short article attempting to overlay 40 year chart periods for comparative purposes. Not convinced of this, but there is some useful historical info pertaining to the way stocks were traded and an argument to stock trading now that bares resemblance to Bill's trading strategy:
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly...
Yeh it's CNN content, but the theme of "buy and hold is dead" recurs here to. Flashback to 2004:
http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/11/markets/seventies/...
Found an economics paper written in 2000 which is more interesting. The following passage caught my eye. If we substitute China for Japan, then this scenario could return to haunt us again. Plenty of industrial unrest to come IMO. Look at that, exchange rate volatility as well. Oil could well return to triple digit territory soon enough and then...:
"Except in Japan, growth in 1975 remained anaemic, justifying a slow recovery in share prices, even in nominal terms. Another key factor was the growing realisation that the capital stock had to be written down, since much of it had been installed on the unjustified assumption that oil prices would remain
at their pre-1973 level. Note that other aspects underlying weak growth were industrial unrest and exchange rate volatility after the breakdown of Bretton
Woods."
http://ner.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/183/1/78
(full text download top right hand corner)
BRK.B
ALOHA!!
It looks like Bill and Melinda Gates have been selling the hell out of Berkshire Hathaway for the past four months ... Not that their "trust" needs the spare cash! I doubt Bill Gates has much debt, not like the US Treasury!
LINK: http://whalewisdom.com/ownership/issuer_view/brk-b-3
I recall that when they got married here in Hawaii Bill rented all the helicopters on all the Hawaiian islands for the day. Privacy is important to some billionaires!
I just have to say that BRK.B represents one of those real wealth companies with lots of PP&E, especially with the latest Burlington Northern purchase. I believe someday not too far off BRK.B will have more value than a US Dollar or a US Treasury Bond so long as BRK.B stays out of the debt trap. Stock certificates become money when money looses its value.
ASX
Not a big down day for my ASX stocks. Worst hit was SRL at (4%) while the rest were less than 1% down or were up. The big DOW and POG crash today did not carry through on my ASX portfolio.
TSX
I also have to say what I have left at the TSX was not down much either and in fact my two largest positions on the TSX were up, one was up 32% intraday and the other up 8% today. That would be PMV and LYM.
I have to totally agree with Bill on this as I am in the same boat ...
The truth is, I don’t like to trade like this. I am no longer a young guy. I’d like to trade every position an average of once every month or two or possibly three. I’d like to have a dozen positions, not 30 or 40. I’d like not to have to get out of bed at 4am to watch overseas markets so that I can assess the risks.
But that’s the thing; the market isn’t about me; it’s about everybody else. All we can do is build our experience, hone our skills, understand and manage the risks, and accept our losses. If we are honest with ourselves, we know that only a small percentage of our trades work out like the FCX, and that trading is hard work. But, when a plan does come together, we have to smile.
Which is why I do what I do and prefer to stay off the radar.
Re: Gold to hit $1,350 - $1,400 by late Spring - John Embry
ALOHA !!
Dr. Cosa ... Your link does not work. Do you have another one? It says I have to visit stockcharts!
John Embry and Sprott ... I have a love/hate thing going for both of them for my own reasons.
BUT ...
You can be selective and point to the recent Sprott IPO or you can stand back, like I do, and look at the BIG PICTURE. In the BIG PICTURE there is Sprott and Embry back when the POG was hitting $400USD per ounce saying that the POG would be over $1500 in later years. In fact you can listen to Embry lay out all his technicals on the GATA DVD from the GOLD RUSH 21 Conference held in the Yukon back in 2005 when you could have bought gold for $400USD an ounce. Then there is "Sprott" all over the ASX that has been highly successful buying some of the same ASX stocks I own. That's the BIG PICTURE and Sprott or Embry did not get where they are today by being complete fools. So when you are judging people and entire companies don't just look at the past six months performance because these guys were saying load up with gold and silver and PM stocks a decade ago. Same goes with GATA. While everyone here was tanking in the TECH CRASH or the REAL ESTATE BUBBLE these guys sold out and bought into PM, which is exactly what I did.
I understand the dilemma many investors are in now, especially when it comes to buying gold over $1000 per ounce. People are feeling like they are buying at the top. For sure they did miss the past eight year gold bull and its easier and more profitable to know what you know now in hindsight and buy gold at $200 or $400 rather than $1000. Shoulda ... woulda ... coulda!! People feel like they are running on empty, especially when they see their homes and 401ks down 50% and their job is in jeopardy. So when they have some spare cash and they know paper money is in trouble and they need to diversify into gold they wait for the $700 correction. In the meantime its a race against time, because whole countries and US States are in the midst of default and unemployment is worsening and our elected leaders view gigantic debt as a solution, not a problem. All the signs are there for a monetary default. So here we sit debating whether gold is a good buy at $1000. In a LIABILITY BUBBLE, which is what I believe the next bubble is, your best defense is in assets without liabilities and dubious counterparties.
When younger people ask me what's the best investment for the long term I always say, "Pay off your house and get out of debt". Then they look at me like I just told them to cut their left leg off! Its just not sexy ... but its how you survive in a World when your money is nothing but a debt derivative.
Now you know I am mainly referring to "people" like those who read Bill Cara. The average American on the street still can't even spell "G-O-L-D"! They have no concept of what "money" really is. Only some of my astute business friends in Las Vegas are just now starting to wake up to "fractional reserve banking"! I'm not so sure my own Senator Akaka even knows what "fractional reserve banking" is and he sits on the Senate Banking Committee. Its all about leverage and OPM ...
There is a huge con going on and it centers on money. This is not new and this con has been going for 95 years. The big diversion the US FED wants you and I to talk about and debate incessantly is interest rates and CPI. What the US FED is really about is "currency devaluation" and they have expertly devalued our currency down to 4% of its original value. A 95 year partnership has been devised between the US FED and the US Treasury. What has grown and prospered over the past 95 years is the US FED and its member banks and the US government. Two powerful monopolies own America. If we allow them to exist America as I once knew America will be destroyed monetarily speaking. The US FED is following to the letter Lennon's advice, with the help of Keynes, and it has worked beautifully for 95 years. Look who's on top!
Euro zone is leading the trading session
Futures here down again on the euro market action.
http://bit.ly/6AAryK.
So far it's NY follows London, then HK follows ny.
Re: Correction/Favorite Artists?
"2nd, Re: the one's worth listening to - Who are your favorites?"
Bert- Obviously, I follow daily comments by Bill, Geoff, Pat and Vad for a reason.
Others would include Todd Harrison, Barry Ritholtz, Doug Kass, and more recently, Dave Landry.
Combined, the names above have helped me climb some nice hills. And kept me away from some serious potholes.
I also play music from the sixties/seventies while coming up with ideas- it's amazing the effect music has on the 'black box' that resides within. Email me if you want a list of my favorite artists.
Re: Is America shutting down?
Mayor Bloomberg is taking the usual (easy way) out. Issue threats of massive layoffs. It is all too common for those in government to use a chainsaw where a scalpel would do better.
Nearly all government jobs at all levels are unionized. Over the good times (times when the can could still be kicked) the unions were granted benefits which the business sector realized were unsustainable. In the early 1980s defined payment pension plans began to be abandoned. (Wall St. loved it.)
Our city cost is now $100,000 avg/year for each active and retired fireman or police officer. They can retire after only 20 years. We are facing massive... layoffs.
Businesses which are struggling have been cutting benefits and hours to try to keep their people. It takes time and skill to solve problems in a reasonable way.
The key difference between the two approaches?
The business owner's income is on the line. Elected "managers" risk no personal wealth or income and are only concerned with being reelected — unions are a block voter influence, voters are a bunch of individuals.
We need more Tea Parties and shows of unity among voters.
The housing crisis starts to 'hit home' in some areas
http://tinyurl.com/yc8w99a
Even San Francisco and San Mateo counties are seeing a lack of bidders at the high end.
A couple of telling personal anecdotes:
The father of one of my 8-year-old's friends (who was a project manager for a recently-merged bank) has been out of work for over 18 months. (Personally, I would flip burgers or bag groceries just for the benefits, but that's none of my business.)
My Dad recently cashed out a portion of his IRA in order to pay off his home. He figured earning 5% on the money was better than any return he could expect in the markets this year.
I could add another one, but I feel so bad for this guy I can't even bring myself to post it.
Marketwatch Front Page: 'Crawling Back into the Ring'
http://tinyurl.com/yzm3jnj
"Bruised for four straight weekly losses, U.S. investors gird for another round of conflict between faith in the global recovery and fear that foreign governments will throw a knockout punch."
Why? When in doubt, don't reach for the wallet (worse, the credit card), and walk away.