Morning Call
Changes in the Cara 100.
IN:
• AXP American Express Company [Financial - Credit Services]
• BCR CR Bard Inc. [Healthcare - Medical Instruments & Supplies]
• BNS The Bank Of Nova Scotia [Financial - Money Center Banks]
• BUCY Bucyrus International Inc. [Industrial Goods - Farm & Construction Machinery]
• JOYG Joy Global, Inc. [Industrial Goods - Farm & Construction Machinery]
• MRK Merck & Co. Inc. [Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - Major]
• SCHW Charles Schwab Corp. [Financial - Investment Brokerage - National]
OUT:
• CHA China Telecom Corp. [Technology - Telecom Services - Foreign - China]
• FBR FIBRIA CELULOSE SA [Basic Materials – Cellulose]
• GRMN Garmin Ltd. [Technology - Scientific & Technical Instruments]
• IBKR Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. [Financial - Investment Brokerage - National]
• MYGN Myriad Genetics Inc. [Healthcare - Diagnostic Substances]
• OXPS optionsXpress Holdings, Inc. [Financial - Investment Brokerage - National]
• TS Tenaris SA [Basic Materials - Steel & Iron]
The companies we removed here, plus recent changes, all meet the requirements for a Cara 100 listing; however, we were not trading them, and hence not following them to the extent we will need to for actively managing an ETF of Cara 100 companies.
CTA Trading Desk Report from Pat Veech:
It was great getting to know many of you down at the Cara Conference 2010, reconnecting with several returning attendees (staying out too late and carrying on well into the evening), and sharing ideas, learning a little bit more about everyone. It is a great community one that will continue growing and evolving over time, a special place where we all learn from one another.
The Obama administration is reeling from widespread backlash against intrusive government policies. The American people are infuriated their voices are being neglected by elected officials, clearly frustrated by brazen moves by politicians to ram through huge spending increases, wasteful legislation, ultimately hitting many middle class working citizens with higher tax obligations.
Last week three separate news items prompted institutional selling: (i) China telling its banks to cut back lending hopefully preventing a speculative bubble; (ii) the White House proposal to eliminate prop trading desks at US commercial banks; and lastly, (iii) whispers that Democratic leaders were ready to vote against Bernanke continuing as Fed chief.
Over the past few weeks institutional buyers had emerged at 1128 to 1130 on the S&P any time early session weakness had pushed prices down to that level. Once 1129 was violated last Thursday, torrents of selling pushed the S&P down -4% beneath the near-term support area.
Since the Bear market bottomed last March the surest path to losses has been to initiate short positions after a sharp 2 or 3 day slide. With most indexes oversold on a short-term basis, we advise that you be wary jumping on the Bear bus on further weakness. It is much less risky to establish shorts after the market lifts a bit and stalls at resistance levels; the market relieves some of its oversold condition and allows traders to place high confidence trades at prices where tightly placed stops keep potential losses to a minimum.
At this point, capital risk is very high and rising for 100% long-only strategies; volatility (VIX) surged 50% higher last week, which is a sure sign that the seeds of change are blowing in the wind.
Positions now require much closer monitoring, but nimble traders should reap greater profits in a shorter period of time as trading ranges expand.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P + 0.46%) touched its 89-day moving average, approached its December low, and hit the bottom of trend channel at the lows Friday around 1090. This is a logical place for an initial bounce; after a 60-point drop a 50% retracement would be back to 1120 area, certainly a place Bulls and Bears may stage a pivotal battle.
The S&P narrowly missed hitting one of our upper targets (1160 where each leg of the rally would have been equal), but nobody says the market is a finely tuned watch. Until and unless 1160 is convincing exceeded, we believe a long awaited correction has begun.
Have a great evening.
Comments
Going back to last year's playbook
A lot of important events happening in the Bio sector... looking long range.. seems a rotation of lesser known names is ongoing... I remember the story you told, Bill, about your friend that was buying multiple names, and when you asked his favorites, he just smiled !! Not all will become the next DNDN or HGSI, but I like the odds...
Give Bernanke a break
Michael Nairne is a bright guy and I respect his writing. We're often too emotional to have balanced perspective. We tend to overlook much, which I think he gives in this piece. Don't forget suckers, hucksters, and government when you are assigning blame. Go to http://www.tacitacapital.com/ and check on article of same name.
A big thing from conference is trade prices not what you think or read or hear.
Edit, China hanging onto US coattails instead of allowing currency to rise another factor discussed
HAITI relief organization: Food for the Poor
A friend who worked in the Peace Corps in Haiti for 5 years recommends:
Food For The Poor is the largest international relief agency in the United States according to the Chronicle of Philanthropy and had maintained fundraising and administrative costs of less than 4% of its expenses; more than 96% of all donations go directly to programs that help the poor.
Food for the Poor provided food to Hospital Albert Schweitzer when I worked there, and I was impressed by their efficiency in warehousing, delivering and demanding accountability. They've been on the ground for a long time and know what they're doing. Actually, a nurse friend who runs Valley of Hope in Carrefour and who needs money for rebuilding her own organization, recommended Food for the Poor as a priority.
htt://www.foodforthepoor.org.
Cara Mines and Metals list
A watch list of mines and metal companies/ETFs was provided at the Freeport conference. Have posted the list in a chart list on Stockcharts.com, as part of the free public charts. Go to the public charts and search for "Cara".
You can also try this link:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServ...
Currently in weekly format with RSI(7). I will leave the list up for a couple of months if people find it useful.
Cheers.
Re: Give Bernanke a break
Sorry, I'm unconvinced. This covers only one aspect of the situation. Bernake is on record with saying there was no housing problem. (July 2005)
He also totally ignored the job loss situation, touted low mortgage rates, predicted continued housing growth, and said, "...much of what has happened is supported by the strength of the economy."
He also said a housing price decline was "...a pretty unlikely possibility we've never had it on a nationwide basis," and did not think it would affect the national economy.
He went blithely along through 2007 predicting a "growing economy due to underlying strength."
See the video @
http://tiny.cc/LkVrb
Bernanke and Obama are cut from the same cloth — all talk, talk and more talk.
They seem to believe if they say it, then it must come to pass.
Goldman/PIMCO/TARP?
In case anyone is wondering about strange talk coming from formerly "bonds-are-always-best" company, PIMCO they now have a GS connection. (Doesn't almost everyone?) From Forbes:
http://tiny.cc/CfBJQ
"...mixing brains and a bit of flash has long been a Pimco mainstay. In its latest go-around, in December it hired Neel Kashkari, the 36-year-old former Goldman Sachs ( GS - news - people ) whiz kid who, until five months ago, oversaw the Treasury's deployment of $700 billion in Troubled Asset Relief Program funds."
We need an H1N1 vaccine to stop this spreading affliction.
Apple $204.04 proir to earnings
Let's see if this moves higher tomorrow or if it's like intel, great report, pop higher after hours, and trap the following trading day.
Earning out: http://bit.ly/7d4XGG
No position
Re: Cara Mines and Metals list
Thanks Bruce for the C100 Mines & Metals list.
We are re-doing the Cara 100 and ought to have it available tomorrow.
Re: Give Bernanke a break
westcoaster,
Bernanke is not his own man. He takes instructions. His "gang" led the nation astray, and needs to be replaced. ASAP.
Americans need to be told the truth about who the faceless movers-and-shakers are behind people like Bernanke or else there will never be improvement in the US financial system. The process must become totally transparent.
Re: Give Bernanke a break
Grym, Bill
I'm not saying he isn't an avatar for the gang of thieves who pick our pockets daily, but pointing out that let's not forget that the failure is systemic. We've been well schooled here not to believe anything any public figure says. Caveat emptor, and I'll join the throng calling for change we can believe in.
Faceless Movers and Shakers
To name just a few:
- Robert B. Zoellick, president of The World Bank Group
– Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank
– Timothy Geithner, US Treasury Secretary
– Ben S. Bernanke, chairman Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
– Frank McKenna, Deputy Chair TD Bank Financial Group
– Tom McKillop, Chairman of the Royal Bank of Scotland Group
D. Rockefeller,Condy Rice, H. Paulson, H. Kissinger. Rog Altman, Henry Kravis........... and the rest of the Bilderberg crew.
And the list goes on.
It should by now be clear to even a casual observer that the current president of the United States is unfolding an agenda that has been pushed for by international banks for a long time and is now accelerating at a great pace as economies are imploded and the pieces for world domination are being set upon the international chessboard.
The system isn't failing, rather it is working quite well.
Work Place IRA's = Get the po people to send their money to wallstreet.
They want it all and have no shame in going after it.
Cara 100 Companies explanation:
I read this at the end of Cara 100 Companies explanation. I thought Id copy it here. Just a bit of reality check.
"If breaking the law is becoming an acceptable practice, then society is doomed. Capital markets cannot take the stress of the loss of the public’s confidence, and I, for one, will not support fraud against the shareholders who are already putting their capital at risk. Deceit against shareholders who have put their trust and faith in a corporation’s management and Board is a pretty sleazy thing in my books.
But on Friday Oct. 5, 2007, in a courtroom, Research In Motion Ltd came clean about their underhanded options grants to insiders, and also acknowledged changing their corporate governance practices so that kind of thing would not happen again, so I put the Company back into the Cara 100.
As a trader and writer, I have no interest in holding grudges. We all live in glass houses, or ought to.
When I say “the market is us”, I could add the words, “and the way we need it to be”. We the people do not ever need to support the self-serving miscreants in our society. Otherwise we would have no right to expect social equity."
Re: Give Bernanke a break
westcoaster -
'Give Bernanke a Break" concludes thusly,
"This is vital. The recession and stock market collapse of 1937-38 that occurred after the initial recovery from the Great Depression was in part triggered by the Federal Reserve’s increase in bank reserve requirements. We cannot afford Bernanke and the Fed to get it wrong this time around." - Tacita Capital
During the Great Depression the U.S. was a creditor nation (like China today) and we were still on the gold standard (fiat today) until FDR confiscated only U.S. citizens' bullion to allow further Fed manipulation of the dollar. The Fed tightened and deflation persisted going into WWII. So, it didn't work and is thus a moot point as asserted by Tacita Capital. Why support a Fed that fails so consistently to protect the dollar? The Fed coordinated a low funds rate for decades under Greenspan by confounding Congress with "Fed speak" which was a euphemism for JIBBERISH accepted by gullible bureaucrats and continues under Bernanke. Did the Fed protect WE THE PEOPLE when Capitol Hill deregulated the banking industry (Sarbanes-Oxley) and watched the Wall St "Club" go rogue with OTC derivatives for junk and drive PRIVATE sector debt to the moon with its low-rate policies? Bernanke's solution to the credit crisis is to print money into oblivion and now drive PUBLIC sector debt to the moon. How much of a break can we afford Mr. Bernanke before the INVISIBLE HAND knocks us to the ground? The banking industry grew to an outsized and unproductive component of our economy while China and India gleefully sucked our productive industrial capacities onto its shores. The Fed allowed for all this with cheap consumer debt while speaking in tongues.
Debasing the USD since 1913 is the Fed's fault and Bernanke runs the Fed for the Wall St investor bank interests and their diabolically conflicted prop desks. Tacita Capital should study the debasement of the denarius (Roman), the global reserve currency for centuries, and its replacement by the solidus (Byzantine) if a fair comparison to this debt crisis is to be compared with most similar characteristics. Those nickels, dimes, and quarters in your pocket haven't had much silver content since 1964 and pennies have almost no copper since 1984. History repeats itself. This situation has little in common with the recent Great Depression. Tacita Capital be stupid. Bernanke is intentionally inflating while praying that he can dodge hyperinflation (the "C" word as kaimu would say).
So Tacita Capital website states that it snobbishly invests for the "Exceptionally Affluent" families and investors, eh. Sounds like Madeoff at the country club.
Cheers.
Apple, the darling of Wall St., might be the best indicator
for the next few months... will see.
I have used this reference for years, but maybe it offers a
shortcut for a few... http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/stockresearch/scr...
Twongress equates transparency to tweeting
http://tinyurl.com/yb8yhed
The Twitter phenomenon seems to be the only true transparency in Congress and it's catching on. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is the most popular user in Congress with almost 1.6 million followers. I understand they hire PA's just to handle their Tweets for political effects. Maybe a new career for budding geeks.
...Cash for Tweeters?
Re: Twongress equates transparency to tweeting
Loanetter,
We are still on the tip of the iceberg of what the Internet is all about and John McCain "Tweeting" is just a slap in the face that it took 10 years for the top people in our government to wake up to the fact!!!!
Believe me, this is a joke. our enemy is knows it and it punching holes through our system as we speak.
I would feel better served with the people at GOOGLE running the US Goverment.
sincerely,
vb
Good to see you are still alive & kickin', VB
be good, girl....
Re: Good to see you are still alive & kickin', VB
hi,
Integrity
alive and kickin :)
Times are getting more interesting
Geithner Phone Log Released
Catherine and News & Commentary,January 25, 2010 at 11:01 pm
By Tyler Durden
Politico has obtained the phone log of conversations performed by then FRBNY President Tim Geithner during the period of the financial crisis, or specifically September 14, 2008 through the end of the year. Some of the people called include (many of them repeatedly) pretty much all the usual suspects:
• Robert Rubin
• Lloyd Blankfein
• Larry Summers
• Hank Paulson
• Jamie Dimon
• Ben Bernanke
• Dick Fuld
• Larry Fink
And also… who is the mysterious ex-Goldmanite Dan Jester and why was he, together with Hank Paulson, the first two people Tim calls the day Lehman files?
Continue reading Tim Geithner’s “Financial Crisis” Declassified Phone Log Released
Solari.com
While we sleep... the Faceless Roam
As for the phone list, focusing on Wednesday, September 17th, two days after the Lehman failure, and the day when the money markets seize the order of calls is as follows:
10:54 pm - Larry Summers
10:50 pm - Scott Alvarez
10:36 pm - Jim Wilkinson
10:11 pm - Don Kohn (our next Federal Reserve Chairman pro tem)
9:34 pm - Jeff Immelt
8:19 pm - Don Kohn
8:13 pm - Cathy Cassidy
7:30 pm - Hank Paulson
7:07 pm - Lloyd Blankfein
6:58 pm - Lloyd Blankfein
6:47 pm - Rodgin Cohen
6:42 pm - Bob Steel
6:31 pm - Jamie Dimon
6:27 pm - Bob Greenhill
6:25 pm - Hank Paulson
5:45 pm - Ben Bernanke/Don Kohn
5:30 pm - Don Kohn
5:14 pm - Chris Cox
5:09 pm - Chris Cox
5:03 pm - Ed Liddy
5:01 pm - Don Kohn
4:47 pm - Paulson
4:27 pm - Mike Neal/Cathy Cassidy
4:23 pm - Robert Rubin
4:15 pm - Bob Kelly
4:11 pm - Bill Dudley
4:00 pm - Jeff Immelt
2:29 pm - Jamie Dimon
2:20 pm - Don Kohn
2:10 pm - Bob Kelly
1:46 pm - Don Kohn
1:19 pm - Blankfein
12:49 pm - Paulson
12:15 pm - Paulson
12:10 pm - Bernanke
10:41 am - Peter Fisher
10:39 am - Paulson
10:35 am - Ken DeRegt(Morgan Stanley risk management)
10:33 am - Paulson
10:29 am - Chris Cox
9:41 am - Paulson
9:40 am - Warsh
9:32 am - Michelle Smith
8:18 am - Dan Jester (Goldman Sachs)
8:17 am - Dan Jester
8:17 am - John Mack
8:16 am - Jamie Dimon
8:15 am - Jamie Dimon
8:10 am - Sheila Bair
7:59 am - Larry Fink
7:56 am - John Thain
7:49 am - Brian Leach
7:48 am - Paulson
7:44 am - Blankfein
7:39 am - Dimon
7:31 am - Chris Cox
7:22 am - Paulson
And here is the call log from September 15, the day Lehman files:
9:05 pm - Tony Ryan & Don Kohn
8:18 pm - Michelle Smith
7:56 pm - Hank Paulson
7:15 pm - Governor Shirakawa, Bank of Japan
6:34 pm - Hillary Clinton
6:20 pm - Hank Paulson
6:20 pm - Don Kohn
6:16 pm - Paulson
6:07 pm - Bob Kelly
5:52 pm - Dan Jester
5:38 pm - Peter Fischer, Blackrock
5:32 pm - Lloyd Blankfein
5:04 pm - Dan Jester
4:58 pm - David Patterson
4:23 pm - Peter Kraus
4:04 pm - Bernanke
3:58 pm - Brady Dougan/CS
3:57 pm - Dan Jester
3:52 pm - Bob Diamond
3:49 pm - John Thain
3:40 pm - Jeff Immelt
3:36 pm - Hank Greenberg
3:31 pm - Meg Mcdonnell
3:27 pm - Meg Mcdonnell
3:23 pm - Larry Fink
3:05 pm - Lee Sachs
2:52 pm - Bernanke
2:37 pm - Paulson
2:34 pm - Vik Pandit
12:10 pm - Bernanke
1:45 am - Calum McCarthy
1:42 am - Barry Zubrow
1:28 am - Jamie Dimon
12:43 pm - Jeff Lacker
12:38 pm - Hildebrand
12:30 pm - Paul Volcker
11:50 am - Chris Cox
11:27 am - Peter Petterson
11:21 am - Charles O'Byrne
10:59 am - Jerry Corrigan
10:50 am - Michael Bloomberg
10:36 am - Eric Dinallo
10:30 am - Hank Paulson
10:25 am - Chuck Schumer
10:19 am - Bob Willumstad
9:56 am - Jerry Corrigan
8:51 am - Shirakawa
8:05 am - Paulson
7:38 am - Jean-Claude Trichet
7:30 am - Dan Jester/Hank Paulson
geithner's phone log - no 2nd opinions required!
Only phoned his masters, no independent voices in that phone log.
Re: geithner's phone log - no 2nd opinions required!
It is so obvious...
A purportedly new audio tape of Osama Bin Laden claiming responsibility for the failed Christmas Day underwear bombing attempt has surfaced, once again, at the most politically opportune time for the White House, with the State of The Union Address now just 48 hours away.
One thing is certain however, Al Qaeda seem to like running P.R. for the White House. Previously tapes have been released hours before the State of The Union Address in both 2006 and 2007. Bin Laden also previously popped up on the eve of the 2004 election, leading the late Walter Cronkite to muse that the whole farce was a Karl Rove orchestrated set-up.
How can you make this stuff up???
our "surveillance society" - a MUST read
Most people seem to think, "the gov't has to spy on potential terrorists, to keep us safe. I have nothing to hide, so it's OK with me."
But, imagine a future Martin Luther King, facing a future J. Edgar Hoover. An early leak of future-martin's internet indiscretions and it's GAME over before his leadership gets established.
With ubiquitous surveillance and long-term storage of intercepts, it's easy to eliminate dissidents, or independent voices from US politics.
Here's an UNUSUALLY thoughtful article on the subject:
http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/01/23/schneier.goo...
It seems the "back door" into google exploited by Chinese hackers was put there at the instruction of NSA! How does THAT increase our "security"?
Terry Gross had today a fascinating discussion today on how the creation of the atom bomb started the trend towards secrecy, expansion of executive power, and permanent internal surveillance.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?story...
As Scott McNealy, ex-ceo of Sun, said in a moment of candor, "Privacy? it's GONE, get used to it ..."
Re: our "surveillance society" - a MUST read
Not to be insulting but...why do you think it is called WINDOWS???
full-body scanners -- rather limited ...
US media are SO lame. No retort to Michael Chertoff's call to spend zillions on his new employer's full-body scanners.
Here from German TV, a physict shows a TV host just what he can get through the scanner: detonator concealed in his mouth, explosive powder in his pocket - which ignites to 4000 degrees celsius.
(In german, but you can still get the drift).
http://www.americablog.com/2010/01/german-tv-highl...
Why are US media so LAME as to not raise these questions?
Insiders view of commercial real estate train wreck
Mauldin speaks with someone in the business who saw the mess in 05. The person is convinced that banks and investors in real estate will hold off the day of reckoning as long as possible. Debt issuance of commercial mortgaged back paper may be too much for investors after all the debt issued for the residential market. Q2 2010 may be crunch time.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldin...
Paving the way for a double dip?
forecasting a return to growth (however anemic) in Q4 09 in the UK:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/r...
Greece shows that it can still peddle debt to investors:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/f...
yeh right. What the article doesn't say is that the Greek Govt. upped the yield it pays to keep investors interested. So Greece ups the debt ante or it cuts spending in a massive way in order to pay the interest, in which case the Greek economy is sent to the poorhouse. Some cuts to employment have already begun:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/g...
And Greece is not even the worse off in Europe:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,...
so as Europe slides back into recession again (in all probability) that "unprecedented stimulus" the UK Govt. is lauding as the cure to the country's ills becomes the proverbial millstone around their necks.
checklist for 2010
1. double dip recession and continued issuance of state debt by G8
2. commercial real estate possibly to crash in US, and given Fiat's dismal earnings in its commercial line up and PIIG nations need to cut budgets, possibly in Europe as well.
3. Possible bank reform to potentially throw markets into chaos or at best an orderly sell off.
4. Credit spreads to worsen again for above mentioned reasons?
5. Can't forget China stepping on the brakes.
http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-chanos-were-not...
This year will be interesting...
Re: Goldman/PIMCO/TARP?
agreed PIMPCO is now tarnished.
Re: Goldman/PIMCO/TARP? >Gulf cartel/Los Zetas/Federales
agreed PIMPCO is now tarnished
steveo- nice one.
Yes, PIMCO undergoing transformation to PIMPCO.
Money corrupts. One need only look at Mexico to find out how easily it becomes only a matter of how much. You and I can turn down $10,000 to look the other way. But $500,000? $2m? New baby? Underwater on the new house? Lost it all in a divorce?
Money issues are easy right out of college. Twenty years later, it becomes a complicated relationship.
Re: geithner's phone log - no 2nd opinions required!
TV has been so boring lately that if I watch anything it is usually a Netflix movie. I think you've just given the networks a clue for renewed audience interest.
Bring back the old shows from the 1950s and 60s...
"I've Got a Secret", "What's My Line?" "To Tell the Truth"
Combine these with the new reality treatment and, with government or bureaucratic contestants — it's a grabber!
Re: full-body scanners -- rather limited ...
Jock,
"Why are US media so LAME as to not raise these questions?"
I expect for the same reason a Private salutes and says, "Yes, Sir!" If you want to make your job better, easier or more secure — go along with the next level above you.
I have been in countless meetings with mid-management discussing various projects. A general agreement on how to proceed has been worked out, then the top guy enters and a clue is given as to his opinion...
Guess how many people beside me even mention an alternative. (I was self employed and had no single "boss" other than myself.)
Media talking heads work for media management, who cater to sponsors (either business or political) who create interest in their views with...
MONEY!
It is always, first and foremost MONEY!
Re: Insiders view of commercial real estate train wreck
Les,
I have heard (from a realtor neighbor) that locally there are far more people behind on payments than have been evicted. Better to have the house occupied than to have it vacant and vulnerable to vandals or weather related issues.
I wonder if Loannetter has info to add.
Re: Paving the way for a double dip?
Les, Stevo, 2nd_ave,
Bill's comments lately (even more than earlier) seem to agree with another downer, either in steps or a single drop.
I believe any talk of decoupling is nonsense. Nations are cooperating to a degree in the my currency/your currency juggling act, but as far as economies go we are all sinking regardless of the amount of "bailing" out.
At some point (things always take longer than I expect) we will reach a point of equilibrium when prices determine real value and markets can deserve investment.
Forget what they say, watch what they do.
This applies to politicians, heads of state, bankers, CEOs... everyone who has a chance at the center of attention.