Morning Call [6:46am ET]
I am often asked for a protocol of how I start my day, so I’ll give that to you now.
When I start the day usually depends on whether or not I sleep in to 6:00am ET. The more volatile the markets have been, the earlier my internal clock wakes me up. That might be 3, 4 or 5am. Today was shortly after 5. I didn’t expect too much volatility in the hours preceding the FOMC announcement, but I wanted to check on my precious metal positions because I have been getting more than a little peeved with the opening gaps against my overnight position. So, my nervous system allowed me to sleep in til about 5:15am this morning.
My office where I trade is a large 25 ft long room in my ocean-front residence, so I trade in shorts and maybe later switch to bathing suit, depending on if I feel the need to walk the beach or swim in the ocean to clear my head. Environment is very important to a trader. You need total concentration, with as few interruptions as possible.
Among a lot of services, and I have tried many, I use the same systems any of you do (or could) except I have real-time pricing on all them, like StockCharts.com, FINVIZ.com, ADVFN.com, and others like Yahoo Finance and Google Finance. If I were a specialist trading a single instrument, I would pay up for a Bloomberg or whatever, and I’d have a much bigger phone system, but I’m not and I don’t use the phone too much. I use skype message and email a lot. I have two computer systems and four screens, soon to be three and six, plus fast-speed cable as well as DSL from the local telco. There is a satellite dish I could hook up, but it has not been necessary since I have Blackberry too.
First up, using ADVFN.com, I go to the European equity market and look at monitors of on-line or real-time prices of Banks, Non-Banks and Autos, and compare it to screenshots from the prior day’s close, which I saved from the previous day on my computer. I quickly scan to see: (i) are the banks getting goosed or boosted, (ii) which banks since if there are credit problems I expect the Greek and Irish banks to be having issues, and if traders are nervous about the big banks, then they too should be down. If so, I then expect the non-bank stocks to be predominantly red (negative). If there seems to be a balance I go to the European autos to tell me the balance of risk that traders are taking on.
Here are the screen shots of the AFTER (first set of 3 screenshots) and then the BEFORE (second set of 3).
THIS MORNING:
YESTERDAY’S CLOSE: [ignore the bid-ask prices after the close because they are meaningless]
All that takes about one minute. Then I go to Yahoo Finance and to the upper left of the home page and click on Indices, then click World, then click Europe, looking to see if the prices are up or down for the big three (UK FTSE, Frankfurt DAX and Paris CAC), and by how much. Then I go to the most extreme (today the French CAC is down the most, indicating traders are selling risk generally) and check the (i) trend, and (ii) whether there is a late change in trend.
Next, I fo to FINVIZ Elite and click on Futures and check the Performance on the day. I leave that tab open and every hour or so I right click on Duplicate, then refresh to get the latest. I do this maybe for the first three or four hours, just to see how the broad futures market is changing shape.
Specifically I go to the US Dollar because that’s usually the biggest driver of equity prices. Occasionally, interest rates or the economy are the biggest drivers, in which case I would look just as close at bonds and/or copper/lumber, etc.
Today the USD is a bit negative, which is probably the Fed, seeing that Europe is trending down fairly hard, trying to give the market a boost. The Fed hands the orders to JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs, so those traders get the inside scoop and act accordingly, hence they can make money every day all quarter long as the four biggest Fed agent brokers did last quarter – something that would be IMPOSSIBLE for you or I. Why we put up with this phoniness is beyond me. I suppose it’s a bit like the house servant who is perpetually trying to get a better life accepting all the nonsense the master gives, while quietly going about the tasks at hand. Being free, or fooling myself into thinking I am, I hate that, which is why I write about it a lot.
Anyway, when I took this screenshot almost an hour ago, the USD had gone from a high of 86.50 at 9:00pm ET to a low of 86.20 around 5:00am, which would be a bit of a boost for the Bulls, then it bounced a bit to 86.32 and then 86.26.
You’d be amazed at how closely correlated (to the second) the S&P trades are to the USD:EUR. This is due to the algo traders who have all real-time prices plugged into massive software/machines to help them make money. I don’t think some aspects of that are fair to the price discovery process because it manufactures prices rather than letting the market set them. These computers are tied to the order flow of the public, and in the big wirehouses to the client accounts directly, so this is no different than a casino dealer knowing your cards and the cards that will come out of the deck. The odds are stacked against you. Trust me on this; the only reason you and I have a chance of winning is if we trade small money. The bigger our capital, the harder it is for us to move it in and out of markets. The liquidity just isn’t there as most of the trades are actually from the top 100 or 200 algo program trading teams. Also, if any of us gets real big and successful, those algo programs will find us and reverse engineer our trading protocols and habits, sticking to us like white on rice.
Anyway, I could go on, but, the whole morning protocol should not take more than 10 minutes of your time. As you click through the different screens, you take in a lot of info almost by osmosis. You are really not thinking about much other than looking for exceptions. The market is a massive place and all you have time to do is to take in the big picture and then get down to work on your positions. For example, is the stronger or weaker Dollar going to help or hurt, and possibly how much, and how much are you prepared to accept the risk and seek the reward. You do this every day, all day every day in fact, and after months, then years, it becomes second nature. It’s like breathing. You eventually see the rhythm of the market as the drivers of prices are pushing or pulling.
One more thing; you need to be aware of the big econ reports that will be published before or after the open, and if it’s earnings season, you need to be aware of the top 50 market cap companies as they could be used as game changers by the big capital pools that basically control market prices.
Today, I expect we’ll see prices lift a tad at the open, then react negatively to the New House Sales report, then lift again before the FOMC announcement. After that, it’s really a matter of whether the Bears are strong enough to take the S&P down below 1085 to test 1050. Nobody knows at this point. That’s why we find this whole exercise so invigorating.
Have a great day.
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Early morning weakness drove the S&P down to our projected support zone at 1085 (low 1085.31) before buyers entered the market, a meager pre-FOMC announcement bounce lifting equities into midday. Buyers lacked conviction, disinterested in chasing rising prices into the report as the market settled in a narrow range for the remainder of the session (S&P-0.30%).
While the market historically has been weak after the June expiry cycle, it traditionally has been strong on FOMC days, especially if the preceding day or two has finished in the red. Given that the S&P just relinquished the 200-day moving average and knifed back down beneath the upper end of its recent box (1040-1105), the failure to produce a rally when odds favored an advance has negative implications.
We assume large pools of money have a vested interest in moving prices higher into the end of the quarter. As long as 1085 holds Bulls have an opportunity to move the market higher, but squandering the chance to capitalize on a favorable set up weakens their case.
One possible bright spot for optimists was the action in Homebuilders today (XHB+1.25%). The worst month-over-month plunge ever in new home sales today caused prices to hit a new low for the year in early trading, before a potential key reversal on volume lifted prices higher on the day. When prices fail to fall on bad news it often means it has already been discounted by current prices.
Remember, forecasting future price direction is more an intellectual exercise for traders – their only concern should be stalking a trade after careful observation of the preceding price action.
Have a great evening.
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Comments
Great Blog this morning Bill
Thankyou.....really found that useful.
Re: Morning Call
Thank you Bill for sharing with us your morning protocol. Most revealing, and quite interesting! Especially how the government agents (JPM & GS) keep the upper hand on us all... But as you have said in the past, eventually they will need the public (traders, Mom and Pop accounts etc.) to participate in the markets to keep the financial world functioning and afloat. I only hope that we can someday have more clarity and an equitable environment without the intervention of HB&B and their like.Maybe someday!
Thanks Bill
Had to immediately save your morning routine to the computer. Its always great to get inside the mind of someone so successful. Thanks again.
DOLLAR/GOLD/FOMC
Yesterday, with several talking heads on screen, I left the sound on.
Fed mtg was the topic. "What will they do with rates?" was the question.
Rick Santelli was allowed a rational comment or two. A guest who I don't know suggested an either/or ending with, "...nothing significant until after Nov. elections." And (Ta-Da!) Larry Kudlow offered, "With the strong dollar and gold up at the same time they have a real dilemma!" (He gets paid for this?)
No one offered the questions, "Is the dollar really strong?" or " Is it only the strongest relative to other worthless currencies?" or "What is the price of gold as measured in US dollars telling us?"
I guess some are making decisions based on this.
Mute again.
-------
Edit: Here's that video.
http://tiny.cc/rhtsp
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
AAPL - PT Raised from $340 to $355 @ Gleacher & Co. Buy
WAG - PT Lowered from $40 to $36 @ Caris & Co. Above Average
Awesome
Bill - I don't comment alot on the board, but your breakdown of your day was really helpful as are all of your analysis. Truly appreciate all you do and teach.
Thankyou Bill
That process might only take 10 minutes, but writing and illustrating it in such detail must have taken considerably longer. Many thanks.
Thanks
Hi Bill,
I want to express my appreciation as well for all you have shared on this site!
Here's a cartoon that might provide chuckles prior to the FOMC announcement.
Cara 100 Update
ADBE - Upgraded to Buy @ Maxim Group. PT Raised from $38 to $40
ADBE - estimates increased at Goldman through 2012. Company is seeing better CS sales. Buy rating and $46 price target.
ADBE - estimates upped at UBS through 2011. Company is seeing better sales. Buy rating and $45 price target.
CCL - price target cut at Credit Suisse to $38 from $40.50 following lackluster 2Q10 update. Maintain Neutral rating.
CCL - estimates increased at UBS through 2011. Company continues to see better demand. Buy rating and $43 price target.
WAG - target higher, estimates changed at Barclays. WAG price target raised to $29 from $27. WAG is struggling with Rx margins. 2010 EPS estimates reduced to $2.09, 2011 lifted to $2.36. Maintain Equal Weight rating.
WAG - estimates cut at Morgan Stanley through 2012. Company is facing lower margins, because of prescription reimbursement rates. Equal-weight rating.
How many traders would tell you that?
No doubt about it, trading psychology based on sound reasoning shared by one with democratic principles, careful, don't want to see you go the way of Oldsmobile.
thank you
I have been reading the blog from the get go and you never cease to amaze me with how much knowledge you are able to convey. You have tremendous style Bill. All your work and effort is truly appreciated. A voice of reason in a sea of confusion. Through your honesty I feel I know you better then I know the majority of my friends and associates. Thank you.
MAY NEW HOME SALES
10:00:02 AM
*(US) MAY NEW HOME SALES: 300K V 410KE (-33% M/M)
- Prior revised lower from 504K to 446K
- Median price $200.9K v $K in April (revised from $198.4K), $222.3K y/y (% m/m; -9.6% y/y)
- Months supply: 8.5 v 5.06 in April
- Homes for sale: 213K v 211K in April
- REGIONS: Northeast sales -33.3%; Midwest sales -23.9%, South sales -25.4%, West Sales -53.2%
- Reminder: First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit ended April 30
No one should be surprised with the housing stats today
As i have been saying for months...
if you think the housing market has bottomed, try selling yours.
if you think the job market has bottomed, try finding better work.
if you think retail is booming, open up a new retail business.
This is no double dip for working class. its 1 big dip and we're still in it.
Re: Thanks
Don't have a graphic, but there's another follow up to the tree/forest question:
If a man speaks and no woman hears him, is he still wrong?
10 minutes!?
10 minutes to digest all that? Amazing, Bill. Takes me about 10 hours and by that time the markets are all closed and the day's action has passed me by :)
BTW, has anyone been watching the Frank/Dodd circus the last few days as they put the finishing touches on the financial reform bill? I only got to watch a couple of hours from yesterday but one item has me puzzled:
On the new Consumer Protection thingy, it seems that Auto dealers/financers are to be exempted from oversight. At least that's what I think I understood them to say. A democrat proposed an amendment to ditch the exemption arguing that, after housing, autos are probably the largest financial decision consumers have to make in a lifetime and, as such should be protected from the kinds of abusive/unsound credit products that plagued housing and blew the big bubble. Sounded logical to me.
Well, it was soundly defeated by Republicans and Democrats alike. Good news for automakers, I guess, but no positive reaction in stocks like F yet (of course, given all the red in the markets).
edit: I see that Carmax (KMX) had a nice pop today but that was an earnngs beat.
Home Sales
With the huge overhanging supply in existing homes, this drop in new home sales surely wasn't unexpected and should be good in the long run, no?
Valued insight
Thank you Bill for sharing your morning routine. Your breadth of knowledge, sound head, and commitment to the process of both markets and social equity never ceases to amaze me. We are lucky to have you. Good trading all!
Re: Home Sales
Not when prices are being run up on the premise that things are improving.
The balance sheet of the banks, and govt agencies are worthless as long as housing continues to drag. And housing cannot recover until there is job growth along with income growth. And that isn't happening for a while.
Only solution to all this is father time.
Morning Blog
I found that very useful, thank you for taking the time BC.
Re: Thanks
Clearly the answer is yes. But
"If A Tree Falls On A Woman, What Is The Kitchen Doing In The Forest?"
lol
Sugar
Interesting move in sugar on the FINVIZ chart. SGG has been showing up a lot on the ETF screener (http://www.etfscreen.com/index.php).
Brazil has previously announced it will suspend its WTO-approved sanctions on U.S. COTTON exports. Brazil planned to place tariffs on U.S. products in retaliation for subsidies provided to U.S. cotton growers.
Now a Brazilian lobbying group in Washington D.C. has called on President Obama to remove the tariffs on imported sugar-based ETHANOL that protects the U.S. corn industry. The current tariff is 54 cents and is supported by a 51 cent subsidy per gallon to U.S.-based ethanol producers.
SGG up 5.6 percent last 4 weeks.
Re: Home Sales
aiki100, NYUGrad,
I suspect any run up in price is a distortion due to only the wealthy being in a buying mode.
If you have more to income you are in the high end of the market — low end is stagnant.
Locally, I've been seeing more tall grass walk-aways in $125,000 to $185,000 range, but one nice property was just taken off the market.
Nice older home —1940s era brick two-story, 4+ acres, ag tax rate:
Went on market one year ago at $369,000 reduced over the year to $299,000. This spring owner told by realtor it was useless to price anywhere near the reduced price even with new improvements of new drive and new roof ($15,000).
Owner staying and commuting (170 miles per day) to new job and now boarding horses on the property below the average area rate per month. (another deflationary signal)
Inv. Intel.
This weeks I. I. sentiment numbers.
OT (History Lesson for me)
How did Canada get its name?
1) A professor drew letters out of hat.
First, was C, then 'Eh', next N followed by 'Eh', then D with 'Eh'
C, Eh, N, Eh, D, Eh (Canada)
2) Actually, legend has it that a pair of Huron-Iroquois took explorers 'north' to their 'village' or 'settlement' called 'kanata' in the native tongue. Ergo, Canada.
Heard that in a presentation from Mayo Clinic docs at ACCP Toronto on 'clinical pearls' in medicine. Pearls before swine, I guess.
Euro Zone Statistics
http://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders...
How does the US compare?
Thanks to all for the other articles related to forecasting ability.
Re: Euro Zone Statistics
Respectfully remember that any comparison with the U.S. and the PIIGs is as the old adage says - like comparing apples to oranges. The differences in the situations would fill volumes.
Re: Sugar
Hi All - Been waiting for the Brazilian sugar/ethanol producers to get access to the U.S. without tariffs, but powerful interests will likely limit amount to come in. Been holding entry position on CZZ all along and like SGG it is showing some gains. Here is a decent summary of the major players in the Brazil sugar consolidation. Happy Trading
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industrie...
Fed-L-Ration?
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2010/06/drop-and-chop.html
Just trying to see some humor in this slow motion train wreck.
Re: Euro Zone Statistics
Really, why is that?
Just because we are a reserve currency does not mean we can skirt economic reality. I'll take your top three differences on why you think the US is immune, not to mention over 33 states in severe deficit, respectfully.
Oil Shares:
They sure are ripping oil shares ever since the judge lift the moratorium except for the initial little bounce that lasted about 90 seconds.
Looking out this seems inconsistent to me as shutting down gulf oil production has to put pressure for higher oil prices six to twelve months out in a world that drinks about 85 million barrels of oil a day and has very little ability to increase that rate with current infrastructure.
Just noticed the refiners are starting to do better right now.
So the question is, what does the oil market know? It does look like we are heading for a double dip or as I prefer to say the continuation of the depression for a significant part of our (US)population.
The part that keeps me optimistic is that the US has always had a unique ability to come through these types of problems before.
A Waking Up Moment, of sorts
i kind of had a waking up moment yesterday on my bearishness. i started looking at the population growth numbers of the u.s. by decade and it struck me that people just keep yearning to come to our country, no matter what is going on with the economy in the short run. and people keep on having babies. look at this:
1930 123,202,624 16.2%
1940 132,164,569 7.3%
1950 151,325,798 14.5%
1960 179,323,175 18.5%
1970 203,211,926 13.3%
1980 226,545,805 11.5%
1990 248,709,873 9.8%
2000 281,421,906 13.2%
2010 309,162,581 9.9%
i think this population growth will just continue and more people means more demand and more mouths to feed, which feeds into more jobs to make the goods those people want/need. so as we sell less and less homes and the population continues to grow it tells me that we are going to have a pretty significant imbalance between supply and demand at some point. when? i have no idea. but if we grow our population another 10% in the 2010s, then we will have another 30 Million people in our country. let's say 4 people live in each house. that's another 7.5 million houses/condos/etc that need to be put up to house these people.
i think the long term positive demographics / population growth are more powerful than any short term negativity.
FD:
I closed my SPY puts today and am out of all of my shorts. I opened up a position in SPF at 3.73 and will continue to look at longer term longs.
Re: A Waking Up Moment, of sorts
playing into this theme of long term population growth, it's pretty clear that things like foods/grains are going to continue to be in high demand. so companies like POT, MOS, MON, etc should always have a wind at their back.
M1, M2 and MZM Stats
I have attached the above mentioned graphs from the St. Louis Fed. They are in log format which makes comparisons over decades appropriate. Looking over these gave me considerable perspective.
Re: A Waking Up Moment, of sorts
Demographics of the United States:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_U...
Trading
VIX and more blogspot has an article on wrongology. Worth the read.
5 year note auction "went badly"
From Blooberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
"Highlights
One day good, one day bad. Today's 5-year auction, unlike the strength of yesterday's 2-year auction, went poorly with buyside demand weak. A smaller-than-usual offering size of $38 billion didn't help coverage which came in at 2.58 for one of the lowest levels of the last year. Dealers got stuck with the issue, having to take down 55 percent of the auction for the second highest level of the last year. Treasury yields are moving off lows following the results. The Treasury auctions $30 billion of 7-year notes tomorrow, also a comparatively low offering size. "
Government Motors
"GM Looks to Banks to Finance More Subprime Buyers"
Sort of along the lines of my post earlier today...
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=10992279
FD: eyeballing F and AN
homebuilder reaction
So horrible homebuilder news resulted in traders buying XHB after the initial selloff, with XHB now up +1.5%. We can either blame manipulators, or we can say that the bad news had already been baked into the cake - over the past few months, XHB has done nothing but drop. Perhaps today is a short term bottom? Being bearish on housing, I don't believe that, but I'm not going to ignore this signal. I covered half of of my homebuilder shorts and my SPX short as well. I'll reload on a bounce, when things seem to be higher percentage.
Bullish percent P&F charts
Check the bullish percent index charts, these are generated in a mechanical process that looks at the point and figure charts, which are easily created by computer, no interpretation necessary.
Consumari Disc is up, but only because it crawled out of a manhole, same with staples.
Energy is up but it was down to 30!
Finance is struggling to find any footing, although a channel is clear and it is near the bottom, finance could pop up over the next weeks.
Healthcare is the healthiest of them all, except maybe telecom. Telecom is a joke, they only exist through monopolistic practices, customer disdain, and decreasing services. But whatever, we are chartists and those 2 charts look OK.
Technology cant get above it's 20DMA
Let me say it again TECH and FINANCE are sucking wind.
Industrial and materials are sucking wind, with materials the worst of the two. They have strong horizontal resistance and resistance from the 50DMA just overhead.
Copper, lumber, have just been pummeled last few month, but copper is still historically high.
Earthquake in Toronto-Ottawa at 1:42pm ET confirmed 5.5
http://www.mlive.com/news/bay-city/index.ssf/2010/...
Will that affect mining north of Ottawa?
When contract is no longer contract?
2:22:05 PM
Fannie Mae Increases Penalties for Borrowers Who Walk Away
- Policy changes designed to encourage borrowers to work with their servicers and pursue alternatives to foreclosure.
- Defaulting borrowers who walk-away and had the capacity to pay or did not complete a workout alternative in good faith will be ineligible for a new Fannie Mae-backed mortgage loan for a period of seven years from the date of foreclosure. Borrowers who have extenuating circumstances may be eligible for new loan in a shorter timeframe.
- Exec: "Walking away from a mortgage is bad for borrowers and bad for communities and our approach is meant to deter the disturbing trend toward strategic defaulting. On the flip side, borrowers facing hardship who make a good faith effort to resolve their situation with their servicer will preserve the option to be considered for a future Fannie Mae loan in a shorter period of time."
- Fannie Mae will also take legal action to recoup the outstanding mortgage debt from borrowers who strategically default on their loans in jurisdictions that allow for deficiency judgments. In an announcement next month, the company will be instructing its servicers to monitor delinquent loans facing foreclosure and put forth recommendations for cases that warrant the pursuit of deficiency judgments.
When Things Suck
Perhaps hackneyed but as Buffett amplified, shorting America long term is a bad bet.
TYH and FAS would be my choices when winds are howling.
Re: Earthquake in Toronto-Ottawa at 1:42pm ET confirmed 5.5
I dunno, but it sure affected my backside out of the house :)
Fed Press Release
Here is the link:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/mon...
Re: Government Motors
Also looking at F, bought on the way down (free fall).
Could get interesting if TARP is in the news this week.
GM and Chrysler being benefactors of TARP with no intentions of making whole.....and F standing on it's own......
Re: When contract is no longer contract?
Big Brother & THE MORTGAGE POLICE "Fannie Mae....the company will be instructing its servicers to monitor delinquent loans facing foreclosure and put forth recommendations for cases that warrant the pursuit of deficiency judgments."
Will there be a search of all your financial records and activities? ...perhaps assisted by a software program than analyses and flags those with suspicious actions? I'm sure the IRS would be interested as well, to tax any gain
given to the borrowers via loan forgiveness.
So now an arbitrary decision will be made determining if you displayed enough "good faith" in your mortgage negotiations and might find yourself in court with your lender seeking a deficiency judgement against any assets you may have left.
Perhaps the penal system in the US may be adding debtor prisons soon to accomodate the growing population of the unfaithful.
Fed release has inspired no confidence in the future
........
Re: Earthquake in Toronto-Ottawa at 1:42pm ET confirmed 5.5
i feel like im in the centre of the world right now,
my office is right across the street from the convention centre where the G20 summit is being held, there are police and fences everywhere i look,
now an earthquake.
as i type this helicopters are landing on the roof across from us as snipers set up observation posts all over the place.
this is as close to a mock war zone as ive ever been.
Re: Earthquake in Toronto-Ottawa at 1:42pm ET confirmed 5.5
i feel like im in the centre of the world right now,
my office is right across the street from the convention centre where the G20 summit is being held, there are police and fences everywhere i look,
now an earthquake.
as i type this helicopters are landing on the roof across from us as snipers set up observation posts all over the place.
this is as close to a mock war zone as ive ever been.
NOAA update on weather headed for the Gulf
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA EASTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TODAY WAS CANCELED DUE TO LACK
OF ORGANIZATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...
CUBA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Note the code expression for "Don't Worry Folks"! There is a 30% probability this could turn into a hurricane and they canceled the tracker plane today.
Haha. I think NOAA has a direct line to the White House for all summer "advisories". This is a joke, and it is unacceptable from the Administration.
Re: Earthquake in Toronto-Ottawa at 1:42pm ET confirmed 5.5
Here in Hamilton it was no more significant than the vibration felt when a big truck goes by the office and hits a pothole, (which is another way of saying that's what I thought it was - if not gas!).
Contrary to what many people think, earthquakes are not uncommon in central and eastern Canada, (and the US). They tend to be far less dramatic than the ones out West. I've not heard of significant impacts from these earthquakes on mining in Ontario and I'd be surprised if there was in this case, but I'm open to correction from anyone whose experienced otherwise.
Re: NOAA update on weather headed for the Gulf
Here is a weather map showing what Bill describes...
More policy wonk from White House as McChrystal is fired
He might have a mouth but he was reportedly a damn fine leader and experienced counter-insurgency operator, which is what Afghanistan requires. Ignore the political gaffes and look at Afghanistan policy through the professional's eyes.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/06/23/96410/mcchry...
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/17390/11...
Obama fired McChrystal and brought in Petraeus to continue the operation, having the same counter-insurgency background as McChrystal. Unfortunately his physical condition ain't great - wiki reporting that Petraeus was diagnosed with cancer last year and appears to be suffering physically as a result:
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics...
Not directly market related but wondering if one of Taleb's grey swans (a foreseeable event) is coming home to roost shortly. Too many things going wrong at the same time for this administration.
Re: Earthquake in Toronto-Ottawa at 1:42pm ET confirmed 5.5
I had no idea BP was drilling near Toronto...
Magnitude-5.0 earthquake reported in Canada
Magnitude-5.0 earthquake reported in Canada
The USGS said the quake occurred at a depth of about 12 miles (19.2 kilometers). The agency initially said the quake had a 5.5 magnitude, but later reduced it to a magnitude-5.0. The quake occurred at 1:41 p.m. EDT (1741 GMT), the USGS said.
The USGS said the 2 largest quakes in western Quebec occurred in 1935 at magnitude-6.1 and in 1732 at a magnitude of 6.2, where it caused significant damage in Montreal.
The agency said earthquakes cause significant damage in the region about once a decade. Smaller earthquakes are felt 3 or 4 times a year.
http://bit.ly/azWsc3
Re: More policy wonk from White House as McChrystal is fired
"Not directly market related but wondering if one of Taleb's grey swans (a foreseeable event) is coming home to roost shortly. Too many things going wrong at the same time for this administration."
Obama only seems to be "decisive" if it will get him an authoritative headline.
I guess this is one of his "ass kicking" moments. More often than not "things going wrong" are accompanied by the 1950s song hit "Mañana".
"Mañana, mañana... mañana is soon enough for me."
Unaddressed toxic assets, jobs still in decline, two wars, states in state of bankruptcy, The Gulf miniseries becoming a full season show... What is next?
Perhaps an open declaration that the US Constitution is over ruled by decree.
Re: NOAA update on weather headed for the Gulf
bankchamp
Living in The Bahamas, we try to stay right on top of these storms. Here is a good source.
http://www.stormpulse.com/
Click on the upgrades on the upper right corner to fill in the picture.
Re: Magnitude-5.0 earthquake reported in Canada
The earthquake was no fun at all in Ottawa. And this only a 5.0 or 5.5! Funny how perception of time changes, it seemed like the building was shaking hard for a full minute, things falling, noises, vibration, everyone running to the streets. Damage here is minimal. I have relatives who are still living in tents up a hill in Chile so really this is nothing, but it was indeed a big scare.
Earthquake
I was eating my lunch at work in the west end of Ottawa when the quake hit. It was like sitting in a boat as a wave passes under you then the windows shook for a few seconds. It brings home that this can happen anywhere we are all floating on tectonic plates.
NOV and BHI have been hammered,
as has more gas related WFT... If one can get the mojo correct, a 35 - 40% rip is well within the variables... odds are moving the scales closer > http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5...
And,
BP has stated they Will Not pay any claims that are ' Moratorium related '...
Rudd Steps Down as Prime Minister of Australia
Support for Mr. Rudd continued to wane when he proved unable to gain approval for a controversial mining tax that confused the electorate and angered Australia’s powerful mining industry.
Re: NOAA update on weather headed for the Gulf
Bill, this Administration is unacceptable , If its not one cover Up then its the Next and the Next . The cover up on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac . Congress has made no attempt to REFORM these two entities, and will not with out Presidential leadership. THEY ARE ALL OFF BUDGET . Yet that risk is huge. The federal government's explicit commitment to Fannie and Freddie now surpasses $2 trillion. On top of that are $8.1 trillion in Fannie and Freddie securities now outstanding -- obligations that both Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner have stated their unwavering commitment to meeting, should Fannie and Freddie need assistance.
Foreign banks and governments hold some $1.3 trillion of those securities, so US taxpayers are on the hook for bailing out foreign governments should Fannie and Freddie default. We may end up sending China alone a check for $454 billion.
http://tinyurl.com/2cr3q4a
Bob.
Auto refresh
Bill,
Thanks for the morning intro. Something to follow as I get back into the markets.
Here's something that could get rid of some refresh clicks.
http://www.refreshthing.com/
Here's yahoo world markets Europe, refreshed every 15 minutes.
http://tinyurl.com/39y6yxx
Can you give us the top ways to know when to get out of a stock and how best to do it? Buying's the easy part. I think lots of people have problems knowing when to sell.
Still holding $31 GE... :)
Re: NOAA update on weather headed for the Gulf
Bill thanks for the stormpulse site . Bob.
Re: Rudd Steps Down as Prime Minister of Australia
Rudd vs. Gillard. Who really cares. Maybe Fosters for a celebration.
Power politics is about power. Republicrats vs. Demublicans and the two party system continues to give you, the chosen electrate, a choice between tweddle dee and tweddle dum...And the dumbs have captured you it in spades. Huzzhaa!
Please do not rest on your laurels Mr. and Mrs. mining company. Your government has changed only to pick your pockets in a more subtle way. You are rich. Governments do not pick the pockets of beggers.
Here's my wild guess on how the market unfolds
over the next few months (see attached).
Re: Auto refresh
"Here's yahoo world markets Europe, refreshed every 15 minutes."
In case of Yahoo! Finance you can enable the streaming quotes on top of the table in order to have real time quotes pushed every few seconds to your screen.
Re: Rudd Steps Down as Prime Minister of Australia
bingo Ross. saving their party skin coming into election time. Let's see if Labor ditches the mining tax policy going into the next election, thus sticking the failed policy to a failed Prime Minister. Seems he could have used a lesson from the Canadian PM in steering the ship of state on a steady course. Aussie market down but BHP up. Market wins this round.
Re: NOAA update on weather headed for the Gulf
Bob,
Your mention of Fannie and Freddie being off budget makes me wonder just what percentage of our debt is "on budget".
The war, Soc Sec, Medicare as I understand are "off". Budgets are useless as are all stats unless we know how they are computed.
The whole thing reminds me of a Chicago crime report years ago, "Violent crime in the city has fallen greatly — except for murder."
This administration is made up of Chicago School of Politics grads.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
AAPL - Apple coverage assumed with a Buy at ThinkEquity. Target $350.
CSCO - Cisco initiated with a Buy at Kaufman Bros. Target $30.
MSFT - Microsoft initiated with a Hold at BGC Financial. Target $29.
Re: When contract is no longer contract?
ALOHA!!
Whats next "debtors prison"?
In essence Fannie Mae will file BK for you without the courts. If only US citizens could walk away from their obligations and get paid 100 cents on the dollar like HB&B!
Re: When contract is no longer contract?
"Whats next "debtors prison'?"
When I googled debtors prison I found this account in Pa.
http://tinyurl.com/384dkkg