Morning Call [10:30am ET] At this point in the morning, trading is an hour old in New York, and equity prices are down roughly –0.2%. But the trading in Google (GOOG ~-2.7%) and Baidu (BIDU ~+7.9%) was showing how excessive the speculation has become in one situation. As stories and rumors float back and forth about Google’s possible pull-out of China, which would greatly support the marketing of Baidu in China, the money flow into and out of these two stocks is mind-boggling.
Another story that caught my eye this morning is the one in Wealth Bulletin that claims that IMF economists are now estimating some $18 trillion in undeclared funds, maybe +40% more than previously thought likely, has moved from high tax jurisdictions to offshore financial centers other than Switzerland. If true, the next big war will be fought by the G-20 nations against the likes of Jersey, Guernsey, Isle of Man, Bermuda, Cayman, Turks and Caicos, British Virgin Islands and other British Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies, which hold the majority of these funds for companies and individuals operating from the G-20, but not pleased with how those governments are being managed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_overseas_territories
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crown_Dependencies
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Vague chatter about Chinese monetary authorities imposing stricter lending policies led to a softer open on Wall Street today, but as so often been the case over the past year, selling dried up as the day wore on as prices gradually clawed their way back to the plus column (S&P +0.05%). With the Fed expected to release its policy statement tomorrow, money flow remained lackluster, participants reluctant to put more funds to work near the top of the recent trading range ahead of the announcement.
The song remains the same; volume was unimpressive, and activity narrow and range bound, with the Bears once again failing to sustain early morning downside momentum.
Last week we figured the path of maximum frustration for active traders would be a continuation of choppy, directionless trading. But, you cannot force the market to “do something”. Experience tells us it is very costly in the long run to initiate positions just for the sake of having some skin in the game. If the market is not electing to meet your trade requirements and trade set-ups, proper risk management unfortunately means abstaining from putting on new positions.
Bulls need to break through S&P 1150 convincingly in order to generate some enthusiasm, while Bears need 1130 to be violated to confirm a change in trend.
Have a great evening.
Comments
This morning: dollar up, GLD and SLV up.
Are greek affairs flaring up again? BTW, thanks Dave for explaining the correlation on Thursday.
Edit: The correlation broke later this AM. PM are weak. Looking to sell rest of my PM holdings.
Watching the moves
in MOS.... maybe it will be taken down toward $ 61.50 area in next couple days ? Still thinking Vale might pop the cork....
Credit Suisse maintains OVERWEIGHT rating for US Railroads
CS reports that 'Absolute Volume Growth Persists', which is an economic recovery story:
· Week 9 Carloads increased 11.6% y/y: Rail industry carloads increased 11.6% year-over-year in Week 9 - higher than last week's y/y increase of 8.9%, and the prior 4-week average of +3.9%. Sequentially, Week 9 carloads increased 1.0% vs Week 8, to ~617K units.
· Volumes: Carload volumes topped 600K for the second consecutive week, and Week 9 posted the highest carload count since Week 50, 2008. Not only did each rail posted positive y/y comps, but all of the rails (except BNI) posted double digit y/y carload increases.
· Scorecard Analysis: Our proprietary scoring analysis for 1) volume/mix, 2) service and 3) a composite of all three implies the following for 1Q10 to-date results:
..... Volume/mix score shows that UNP is the best performer and BNI is the worst.
..... Service score shows that CNI is the best performer and NSC is the worst.
..... Composite score implies that UNP is the top overall performer while BNI is the laggard.
Dow Jones US Railroad index charts:
http://tinyurl.com/ylbvmk9
UNP charts:
http://tinyurl.com/yjf47ar
Try UNP:$DJUSRR chart to see the best entry point to UNP as at the beginning of November when the $DJUSRR was breaking out, and UNP was a significant under-performer to the index at that point.
This speaks top my belief that soon before a big move in a stock, the company’s big investors typically are talking the stock down. So, to counteract the deception that goes on in the market, you need to monitor a set number of what I call Quality Growth stocks, and buy them after sell-offs, when the media is spreading negatives.
Re: Credit Suisse maintains OVERWEIGHT rating for US Railroads
Never ending battle ! Thank you, Bill..
Re: This morning: dollar up, GLD and SLV up.
jb,
Yes GLD (bullion ETF) is up ~0.1% while the GDX (Goldminers ETF) is down -1.1%. The GDX is the more important indicator. GLD is based on contracts that are dubious.
Michael Lewis on "the big short" - GREAT interview!
Better than his 60 minutes interview of last night. YES, he’s peddling a new book. And here you see him, in his rather cushy surroundings. Worth an hour's time:
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Author%20Lewis%20Says%20Wall%20Street%20Is%20%60Making%20America%20Worse'&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vUHzlM3HI8i0.asf
Jock
WIR - David Rosenberg
In this weeks WIR Bill mentioned David Rosenberg as an economist he reads/follows.
For those that are interested, he has a daily writeup that he emails out.
Free sign up is available at the Gluskin Sheff website.
WIR Comparative Relative Strength
Yesterday I posted a number of charts showing Comparative Relative Strength of sector ETFs vs the broad market, concluding that traders had taken on excessive risk and were ready to pull back, which would also impact Dollar strength.
This works, and should be a tool you add to your toolbox and discuss here.
As of a few moments ago, the sectors I opined would out-perform were up today an average +0.3%, and the ones I opined were ready to pull-back were down an average -1.00%.
Also, the $USD was up +0.58%, the DJIA was down -0.2% and the NASDAQ down -0.7%.
The rising stocks in the DJIA were the Staples and Healthcare defensives: WMT, PFE, MCD, MRK, PG... while the aggressive Energy, Basic Materials, Industrials, Financials, Techs and Cons. Discretionaries... were down the most.
CREDIT RATING
ALOHA !!
In the news today ...
Credit Agency Warns U.S. and Others of Risk to Top Rating
By DAVID JOLLY
Published: March 15, 2010
PARIS — Major Western economies have moved “substantially” closer to losing their top-notch credit ratings, with the United States and Britain under the most pressure, Moody’s Investors Service said Monday in a reminder that the global debt crisis is not limited to the small or weak.
The ratings of the Aaa governments — which also include Germany, France, Spain and the Nordic countries — are currently “stable,” Moody’s analysts wrote in the report. But, it added, “their ‘distance-to-downgrade’ has in all cases substantially diminished.”
“Growth alone will not resolve an increasingly complicated debt equation,” Moody’s said. “Preserving debt affordability” — the ratio of interest payments to government revenue — “at levels consistent with Aaa ratings will invariably require fiscal adjustments of a magnitude that, in some cases, will test social cohesion.”
In the article apparently Spain still has a triple A rating ... so much for PIGS! Whats the CDS spread for Spain with a triple A rating?
Then there is this part ...
For now, the U.S. debt remains affordable, Moody’s said, as the ratio of interest payments to revenue fell to 8.7 percent in the current year, after peaking at 10 percent two years ago. If that trend were to reverse, the Moody’s analysts said, “there would at some point be downward pressure on the Aaa rating of the federal government.”END
Wow ... another reason to keep interest rates low. So if and when the US FED raises rates without an increase in "revenues" then there goes America's triple A, or so Moody's warns. Yet all through the Vietnam War and the 1971 "default" on the gold standard at that time America still maintained a triple A. Even when rates were at 20% in Dec 1979 the US Treasury never slowed down outlays one bit, still running at 31% of GDP, same as all through the past 40 years since 1970.
The entire article goes on and on about "revenues" yet they never define what Moody's considers as "revenue". Apparently "debt" is revenue as it is over at the US Treasury because I do not know how you can leverage total daily spending(outlays) with total net tax revenues(receipts) with 300% or 840% or 1100% revenue deficits on any given day.
Like on Thursday, 3/11, the US Treasury was showing total "net" tax revenues were $1.91BIL USD while total outlays not counting the redemptions due to debt issuance was $12.13BIL USD, so that is a 630% "real" revenue deficit. Heck on that day alone $31.1BIL USD was added to the US Public Debt, which is now at $12.52TRIL USD, moving ever closer to 100% of GDP. Of course though that is depending on how GDP is calculated(deflator magic) this fiscal year!
US Senator Dodd formally
US Senator Dodd formally releases proposal for financial reform bill
- creates an independent consumer agency within the Federal Reserve; restrains Fed from ability to bail out companies
- requires hedge funds registration for funds with over $100M in assets
- bill sees clearing house for swaps to be traded on exchange
- includes regulation for credit agencies
- contains limits on proprietary trading and provisions on 'too big to fail' as suggested by the Volcker rule (liquidation of firms would require approval of 3 bankruptcy judges within 24 hours)
- legislation includes provisions that allow Fed to oversee all firms who received TARP; regardless of whether bank charter is maintained or not
Re: US Senator Dodd formally
Vad,
While I agree with most of this list, I still believe that Congress has missed the point. Conflict of interest in transactions and within financial company services is the basic problem, and little or nothing is being done to stop it.
Re: US Senator Dodd formally
Pretty much... without resolving of that major problem, the rest is either toothless altogether or just not enough
In case you wonder...
... what possessed AIG once again:
AIG Holder Fairholme's Bruce Berkowitz (13M shares) affirms faith in the company; 'AIG is still a good company'
- Note: Berkowitz had highlighted support for Citigroup last week in an interview with Fortune
Re: WIR Comparative Relative Strength
The thing that has brought relative strength charts to the forefront of my thinking is how clearly it illustrates visually what the current memes are in today's current investment thinking. Using relative charts (or relative sorting by % change) allows you to filter out the effects of overall market moves from individual sectors.
You just have to look at the XRT outperformance to see that - even on a down day, The Consumer Is Coming Back is still being supported by folks who buy the dips.
Another way of looking at this intraday is a watchlist of the 12 sector ETFs I follow, sorted by percent change. Then I highlight SPY, and I watch which sectors float above or below SPY as the day trades. Last few days XRT has started out below SPY, but then the bids come in, and XRT floats to the top by end of day. Then when I look at XRT:SPY, sure enough I see that the major trend is still in place. (I actually thought we might have had a reversal last week on that particular one, but - the last couple of days says not yet.)
Rail car loadings, retail sales reports, are all news items that are saying "things are getting better" from the standpoint of the consumer buying. Last Friday we had a good retail sales number come out; SPY went nowhere, but XRT:SPY broke up to new highs. XRT:SPY shows this more clearly than XRT on its own. It also says that good retail news is still being bought.
Re: US Senator Dodd formally
Gah. An independent consumer agency within the Federal Reserve. A committee of foxes appointed to manage security operations for the henhouse. Nice work Mr. Dodd, I think your post-Senate reward will be waiting for you at, who will supply it this time - I think it's JP Morgan's turn now.
You know, why skip the middleman. Why not appoint the Financial Services Roundtable to run the whole thing? Or maybe just outsource it to JP Morgan, Citi, or Wells? That tough financial material is way too complicated for poor government regulators to understand, best to give it to experts in the industry who know what they're doing.
Sarcasm aside - are you KIDDING me?
PBR's share offering
Holders of PBR may want to take note that PBR's share offering should happen this semester, according to Edison Lobao, Br. Minister of Mines and Energy, transaction possibly done by June. PBR will raise between $40B and $60B. Transaction is being really pushed by the outgoing president Lula, who will be replaced in November.
bill - money flows - sector
Bill, is there some way to determine intraday to see what the money flows are into any given sector? Sector ETFs are a good proxy for price movement, but they don't capture money flow at all.
It would be pretty awesome to be able to see aggregated money flow (in billions, say) into and out of my favorite sectors. For instance, I have no idea how much bigger the money flow is in gold miners vs. money flow into gold contracts, GLD, and CEF. Same with the oils. Somehow, if we can see a $10 billion flow into oil contracts, while $30 billion flows out of oil equities, its pretty obvious what is going on.
I'm happy to write code, but it needs to be done in real time. Aggregate daily volume times price movement summed over all the holdings in the sector fund, listed in billions of dollars.
Any thoughts how to get this?
FBCM, REDF, SOKF
Looks like a kangaroo tail reversal forming on FBCM. Volume is double normal and there is a divergence in oversold vs price. That is, the price is lower than in mid February yet the RSI 7 is higher, possibly indicative support at this price. From a valuation perspective this looks cheap.
FD: Bought opening position at $4.97.
REDF:
Play on internet growth in India. Bought at $2.40. This is an old dog. I have followed them for years and have found that they recently completely redesigned their web site to focus more on search (and search ad revenues). They dropped all advertisements on their home page to get rid of the clutter, which hurt revenues. However, in the latest quarter they still managed to show revenue growth over the prior quarter even after redesigning their site. To me that suggests that the new focus on search may be beginning to get traction. This will be a longer term hold for me as the downside risk is little in my mind. They are currently valued at $70 Million and they have $50 Million in total cash/investments. So net valuation is $20 Million...and they have 85 million registered users...
SOKF:
Bought more at $3.9...this is one of the more undervalued companies I have run across.
Re: CREDIT RATING
Kaimu -
Press releases keep promising that Moody's is about to lower America's triple A. It's the Drudge headliner today! First, if I recall, you've noted that we don't need a rating service monopoly for debt. Let the markets decide with due diligence as is done with equities, real estate, commodities, through women's hemlines and men's underpants.
Moody's is being threatened with a shutdown by the likes of Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel armed with damning evidence supplied by the Fed and for not upgrading U.S. debt to the new and improved Quadruple A. Moody's is threatening to crash the U.S. economy with a downgrade as a means of survival. It's a Mexican standoff.
http://tinyurl.com/cc34ua
U.S. attack on Iran
What are the market implications of a war breaking out now?
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
Oil up? Military industrial complex up? Gold? $USD? anyone...?
Just when I thought I was getting a handle on things.
Re: US Senator Dodd formally
Yes!
And another conflict: Having those being rated, pay for the rating to the agency involved doing said rating.
Re: bill - money flows - sector
davefairtex -
Here's a blog were sector and money flows are charted.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/04/money-flows...
EDIT: StockCharts.com has a money flow index (MFI) as an indicator option. It is defined as follows:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_sc...
why John Paulson and George Soros bought 14% of Nova Gold
Why would these big dogs buy into a “dog” of a gold company? Management is slimy, the deposits are HUGE – 29M oz. – but currently uneconomic to produce for their low grade and for the billions required in infrastructure investment in the far north.
Answer: it’s a cheap “call” on the price of gold, and a “hedge” against the rest of their wealth dissipating through inflation. If the gold price doubles or more, NovaGold’s deposits will be economic, and its stock price will soar! (they bought at $5, and the halo effect has already taken it to $7.)
For lesser folk (mere millionaires) there are better gold stocks. But for these billionaires, NovaGold makes sense. If you want chapter and verse on why, here it is:
http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2010/03/novagold-...
Comparative Strength Charts
Playiing around with Bill's WIR theme and tried this one:
$GOLD:$CRB
An indicator that the ol' relic decouples from the traditional commodities market as a currency alternative as shown in late 2009 and then resumes its tight channel.
http://tinyurl.com/y9vy6nc
Re: WIR Comparative Relative Strength
I have seen the XRT:SPY chart or some other combination with SPY noted in other comments. I've pulled up the various charts but have not been able to determine what I'm really looking at. I know it is a combination of the two individual charts,but what is the significance of the various combination's? TIA.
Crude Oil Horizontal Shale Drilling
From Ed Steere's blog is a link to a short video of how this tech works. Amazing. I can see why $80/barrel is required to make this economic.
http://www.northernoil.com/drilling.php
Re: Crude Oil Horizontal Shale Drilling
Dr S
This technology has been succesfully used for a number of years now and is continually improving. ..."I can see why $80/bbl is required to make this economic", not quite true. It actually makes cheaper oil more economic by leveraging drill costs to results. As an example it may cost 4x as much but you will get 5x the production and so it can make cheaper oil viable, not the other way around.
Re: bill - money flows - sector
Dr. S -
WSJ also has a money flow page by sector. I have been tracking these numbers, but still don't know how to interpret it. Have you used it?
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfsct...
Re: why John Paulson and George Soros bought 14% of Nova Gold
This appears to be the Paulson-Soros Dinner Club where the big boys sit around cocktails listening to their salesperson tell them how they can squeeze the market. Is this really price discovery or the workings of a syndicate putting the price where these guys think they can take it -- typically to an extreme whereupon they hire a bunch of wordsmiths to hammer out magazine and newspaper articles hyping the stocks as they exit their positions.
The SEC ought to be on to this manipulation!
Re: bill - money flows - sector
Dave, I'm not aware, but I'll look into it. I think this stuff is far more important than listening to Talking Heads talk their book all day long on CNBC and Bloomberg. These are tools we can all use.
Well...
"Bulls need to break through S&P 1150 convincingly in order to generate some enthusiasm, while Bears need 1130 to be violated to confirm a change in trend."
Well, if we go by the dictum that the market will do what frustrates the most, then the likely direction is a continued upward grind. Pullbacks currently (until they aren't) are relatively flat days followed by up days. So, with the FOMC tomorrow and OPEX this week, the trend is our friend-frustrating though the relationship might be.
No more cable TV bills.
March 13, 6:36 pm NY, I went off the grid. Cancelled my Cable TV portion of my bill and switching over to Boxee.tv.
The money i save is $1,044 per yr. Once i close on this property I will also disconnect from paying any landline telephone fees too. Add another $30/month or $360/yr saved. That alone will pay my way to the next CTAB event.
If you havent checked out boxee.tv out yet, you should. The only drawback/benefit is no live sports. all you need to watch entertainment on a big screen tv or any tv, is internet connection, and pc/mac/or a $200 D link box coming out soon.
Edit: in 30 yrs, I will have saved myself $31,320. I upped the savings. With the itemized bill i forgot to include all those pesky taxes etc. total is $87/month just for the boob tube portion.
Internet TV
NYUGrad
Several years ago I quit Dish and wrote my own page for cable replacement. Now I have East and West coast live networks most popular cable shows archived in hours of broadcast and news and sports. I purchased a projector and laptop with digital TV input even the internet is now projected onto a resurfaced wall tinted light gray.
http://cvip.fresno.com/~mag77/
Who am I ?
good read.... http://iancassel.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/vi...
Re: bill - money flows - sector
c3 -
That WSJ chart is great. Thanks.
NEGATIVE NET REVENUES
ALOHA!!
Not that it means anything, but who else will record such days as nobody seems to care what the US Treasury does or how low it sinks in its daily operations. It's just another day of debt derivatives backed by the largest debt counterparty in existence. Let the numbers speak ...
On March 12th, Friday, the US Treasury reported that they took in a total of $10.98BIL USD in tax deposits(receipts). This includes all individual and business taxes plus payroll taxes, plus excise taxes, plus estate and gift taxes ... the whole tax revenue enchilada. Meanwhile, the same day, the US Treasury issued a total of $13.29BIL in refunds so actual receipts or revenues were ($2.31BIL) USD. Refunds are ravaging the US Treasury cash flow at the moment and are the largest refunds issued since FY1998(that I could find), up 68% from just FY 2007.
What were the outlays(withdrawals) for that same day? If you net out debt redemptions then $19.61BIL was spent on March 12th, direct expenditures. A day recorded at the US Treasury where there was negative real revenues, yet even then spending was not deterred at all.
This is not a sane or moral system and is the most unfair to future generations of Americans who must bare the brunt of the current Treasury debauchery. None of us here runs our own household in such a manner so why should politicians be allowed to conduct such fiscal atrocities? There I believe lies the total disconnect between the average US citizen and those who are voted into power who are insulated from reality and the rule of fiscal law in Washington DC.
TOP 400
ALOHA!!
From IRS days ...
There are these data points the IRS calls the TOP 400 that I look at which kind of gives you a "money flow" for America's top "earners". The TOP 400 is data on the TOP 400 tax returns in terms of AGI(Adjusted Gross Income).
Here are some notes I made ...
Staying in the TOP 400 is fleeting. A full 72.44% of tax returns filed that make it into the TOP 400 are no longer in the TOP 400 the next year. A total of 12.24% make it into the TOP 400 two years in a row. By the third year that drops to 4.98% and by the fifth year only 1.9%. The data is for a 16 year period going back to 1992. How many of those TOP 400 tax returns stay in the TOP 400 for 16 years? Only 0.2% ... That would be Oprah, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, Lloyd and Jamie!
INCOME
Salaries and wages-In 1992 26.22% of AGI of those who were in the TOP 400 came from salaries and wages and by 2007 that percent drops to 6.53%. Being an employee is not popular any more at the TOP.
Capital gains-In 1992 36% of AGI and by 2007 66.3%. Pushing a two bagger in 16 years. A growth industry ...
Interest-In 1992 7.39% and by 2007 7.85% of AGI, hardly any change in 16 years, so saving has not been a "growth industry".
Dividends-In 1992 5.82% of AGI and in 2007 7.11%, a better idea than saving, but not as preferable as capital gains.
Business income(Sch C/F)-In 1992 5.21% of AGI and in 2007 0.11%(almost 0%). Too much risk and sweat in sole proprietor(Sch C) and farming(Sch F). A dead industry at the TOP 400!
Business income(Partnership/S Corp)-In 1992 17.66% and by 2007 12.16%, less business income again.
TAXABLE INCOME
More income falls into the "taxable" category in 2007 than did in 1992, meaning the US Congress has closed more deductions and increased taxes. In 1992 total taxable income was $2.395TRIL(0.70%) and in 2007 was $6.063TRIL USD(1.95%), so as taxable income went up over the past 16 years government spending and debt also went up. No matter what political party promises not to raise taxes don't believe them, because if the TOP 400 pay more we all do. They don't raise taxes they just eliminate deductions or raise the AGI limits. Really, what's the difference?
Here is Note #4-[4] Inflation-adjusted data were calculated using the consumer price index from Bureau of Labor Statistics, based on 1990=100.
With that quote in mind over at Table #1 AGI we see that in 1992 the total combined AGI for the TOP 400 was $18.72BIL USD and in 2007 that same combined AGI jumped to $137.9BIL USD, which according to the IRS Note #4 is equal to $86.95BIL USD in "1990 Dollars", a combined $51BIL USD loss in purchasing power for the TOP 400. No wonder they wanted to go to UBS!
AVERAGE TAX RATE-In 1992 the TOP 400 were taxed at a rate of 26.38% on average. In 2007 that has dropped to 16.62% closer to long term capital gains rates. A shift out of business and salaries.
THE VIEW
What this tells me is that over a 16 year period business as a source of income is losing its value at the top in America. Perhaps that can tie into why there is less employee income(salaries and wages)at the top. Less of "them" are hiring less of "them"! The TOP 400, who are representative of the top earners in America do not see running a business as a viable way to produce income. They do however see "capital gains", buying bubbles, day trading or hedge funds(paper shuffling) as an alternative to producing a product or service. Is this a "top down" mentality in America? If so, then joblessness and trade deficits will be a permanent fixture. Charts like MANEMP will continue to decline from current 70 year lows. Then also the US Treasury will continue large issues of debt in order to sustain the status quo monopoly, in essence "price fixing" their power at the cost to future American generations. What would happen in America if there were more incentives to start a business rather than count on capital gains?
Supposedly "migration" is not a factor since the US tax system taxes its citizens no matter where you live in the World. This, though, could be a consideration for migrating to avoid paying state income/excise taxes. I left California for those reasons.
It will be interesting to see this same data for 2008 and 2009, but we'll have to wait a year or two. In 2008 and 2009 we saw many dump stocks and run to Treasuries or savings(cash). I wonder if that event will be representative of the TOP 400 in 2008 and 2009. Then again capital gains rates rise in 2011 ... Seems no matter what your long term plans are to increase your wealth government is there to make your life harder, whether you are in the TOP 400 or not.
LINK: http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/07intop400.pdf
Re: US Senator Dodd formally
ALOHA!!
So reinstating Glass-Stegall is dead for Dodd ... How many of these guys will still be around after the November elections? They best bust a move and get "healthcare reform" passed before those elections!
Comparative relative strength: greed vs fear
Thanking Bill for this useful additional analysis tool, I'd like to point out the relationship between large caps vs small caps such as IWF vs IWM http://xrl.us/bgyr9z (for example but not only) to test the water for fear or greed. I attach a 3 yr graph with weekly RSI7. It seems to me we are at the bottom and starting to raise. So it would confirm that it's time to sell the more speculative positions. Also the graph http://xrl.us/bgyr9p of gold vs SP500 shows a similar situation.
Picture tells a thousand words
http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=EURCHF
3 month chart tells a sorry story. I was shocked to see the extent of the slide of the Euro against the Franc.
All's well in Greece? Yeh, sure it is...