Morning Call [7:25am ET] For years I stated a truth that conflict of interest would ultimately destroy the financial services system. Today the foundation blocks of Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) are collapsing as March has been a good month for the UK Financial Services authority (FSA) in making arrests of key people for illegal trading. We are about to witness to how sleazy the banking culture has become. Let the perp walks begin.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/69af38ae-3670-11df-8151-00144feabdc0.html?refe...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perp_walk
In capital markets, a couple hours ago, the US Dollar soared to a breakout high of 81.885, and the gold cash price dropped to a low of 1093.70. The silver low was 16.66.
A scenario I painted in recent days is now playing out.
With the stronger Dollar, the Crude Oil May future is down -$1.34/bbl to 80.57, and the June S&P future is down –5.1 to 1164.5. European equity indexes are down about –0.5% on the day, while most of the Asia-Pacific markets closed marginally higher.
But today will be all about the Dollar, increasing volatility and the capture of a network of illegal traders in high places.
Have a good day.
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
A soaring US Dollar (DXY +1.34%) caused traders to liquidate long commodity positions with Precious Metals (SLV -2.63%, GLD -1.89%) and Crude Oil (USO -1.89%) under pressure all day long. These moves look impulsive and have plenty of room to run; the Euro (FXE -1.30%) has a measured move down below 129, and Gold probably won’t find much support until it drops another 50 or 60 dollars.
The equity markets opened moderately lower spending the entire day oscillating around this level, another narrow range day with subnormal volume and low trader conviction (S&P -0.55%). Bears have repeatedly been unable to extend opening weakness past a couple hours, leaving the market ripe for end of day bargain hunting, time and time again. Eventually this pattern will change but the message is clear: until the market actually begins to exhibit signs of weakness (lower lows, lower highs over a multi-day time-frame), picking tops is a lesson in futility, a sure path to a lighter wallet.
First sign of weakness tomorrow will be a move beneath today’s low (1166) that sticks and tests minor support at 1160. Bears still need to take out 1150 before the uptrend can be broken, while Bulls should have the wind at their backs on any move above 1180.
Have a great evening.
Comments
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.
Did I Miss Something?
Bill - you said, "In capital markets, a couple hours ago, the US Dollar soared to a breakout high of 81.885, and the gold cash price dropped to a low of 1093.70. The silver low was 16.66. A scenario I painted in recent days is now playing out."
This morning - I read that Germany is basically saying "no" to a Greek bailout and that they - along with France, are pushing for the IMF to rescue Greece.
In your March 18, 2010 Blog you posted, "If the IMF is forced to bail out Greece, and in turn other members of the EU, the Euro will strengthen and the US Dollar will collapse, causing asset prices to soar in the world.", and "Could the Dollar break above 81.5? Yes, but only if the ECB makes a strong statement that it will resolve the Greece issue. If the IMF is forced to bail out Greece, and in turn other members of the EU, the Euro will strengthen and the US Dollar will collapse, causing asset prices to soar in the world."
I would have thought (based on your March 18th post) that we'd see the $USD going down this morning, not up, and that the price of Gold and Silver should be up, not down.
What am I missing? I know that the IMF hasn't stepped in yet - but it seems much more likely now than it did in the past.
Thank you
follow on from yesterday...
Dear Davefairtex,
"To me, the market seems detached from fundamentals. This makes me more nervous to go long."
If I remember correctly it was described here by Bill, and others in other blogs, the market rallied multiple times and for significant percentages during the worst "economic" fundamentals of the last century-Great Depression.
The realities of the market depend on the force of the combined perceived realities of the participants. You get enough of them to believe, you get Tulip mania, Dot.bomb, Enron, yadayadayada.
Some participants have perceived the reality of this market better than others. As Bill says, the market is us, and it's a fair statement that oftentimes humans don't have that good a grip on reality, so why should the market?
Obviously, some had a better grip on "market" reality last year, or the year before (that fellow Paulson who runs the hedge fund), than others.
Trends and reversals
Vad,
My guess is the anger expressed is simply due to frustration and while directed at you is possibly anger at oneself for holding firmly to a "belief" of where the market would/should go.
I speak from long experience and have been kicking myself for resisting the extreme up move the year has brought ;-(
Having always been a long term trader (swing trader, although I'd never heard the term) I stayed away from tech stocks until 1999. Again ;-(
----------------
As to your question yesterday:
1. "To me, the market seems detached from fundamentals."
I don't really know what that means. Can anyone indicate any single moment when the market is anchored in fundamentals? How to measure it?
----------------
I would say that for nearly three decades I traded on "fundamentals".
I only bought companies which had a long track record and regular dividends— BA, GE, IBM, T, etc. I held them until there was some "fundamental" change in their data — a drop in earnings, a price out-pacing their history, a scandal of some kind.
That is why I avoided tech so long. No earnings at all or PEs in triple digits. A short shelf life before some newer, faster, better thing made them obsolete.
I would say that with rules changed,ignored or worse still, in flux — with government subsidizing HB&B, buying bonds for sure and stocks possibly — no one knows just what the fundamental market picture is now.
We do have a better idea of where the fundamental economy is in spite of government "disinformation" and Wall St./CNBC cheerleading and it is anything but good without any up trend change likely.
End of analysis,
Dr Grym ;-)
UK FSA kicking some butt
I wonder how long the US media and authorities can keep up the charade of business as normal in the trading industry...
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,...
Sarkozy's feeling the heat in regional elections and now voicing a different sort of solidarity in suggesting Merkel's call to the IMF might be the way to go. Can't see the French voters too eager to see their money spent elsewhere when they're trying to cling to their decreasing pensions and salaries - and the presidential cycle is half-finished. $ bulls buying at the top?
Bloomberg headlines light up the ratings downgrade for Portugal by Fitch and Euro weakness based on Greece. Not a word on cleaning up vice. Are these guys cheerleaders for Wall St. and Washington?
Re: Did I Miss Something?
Learn2Invest,
Re "What am I missing?"
If you wish to put it to me, why don't you rely on facts?
"It seems much more likely", as you say, is not a fact. So, what's your motive -- or is it just bad communication on your part -- to say to me, "Bill what am I missing?"
There are reasons, sometimes, why I just don't answer some of the material posted here.
If you want to deal in stories, which come and go, which may be believable or not, why not just post your take, and leave me out of it. Thank you.
Cara 100 Update
BA - Saying the aviation outfit “looks very likely” to secure the USAF tanker contract, Macquarie boosts Boeing to Outperform from Neutral.
Re: Did I Miss Something?
You missed this:
"If the IMF is forced to bail out Greece, and in turn other members of the EU, the Euro will strengthen and the US Dollar will collapse, causing asset prices to soar in the world."
Merkel and Sarkozy would accept the IMF participation, what does that mean? Nothing yet.
Also, we haven't reached the stage where, "the IMF is forced to bail out Greece, and in turn other members of the EU,"
so the conditions currently favor a stronger $
Re: Did I Miss Something?
There are always many issues in play L2I; one of which today is Portugal's credit being downgraded. As is said often on here, sometimes the "what" plays out well before the "why", and we need to try to focus on prices and not stories. Just my two cents.
Re: Did I Miss Something?
nemo,
Thank you. I think this is an important thread, and don't wish to stop it by interjecting comments like a minute ago. I merely want people to do their own thinking. I post material for discussion, not to set myself up as a target to do other people's thinking.
Re: Did I Miss Something?
Understood Bill. Having said that, I think my thinking (ow, that hurt) has improved on these subjects since I've been following, and I may have, and likely will be, guilty of such a weakness again.
as mentioned in the subsequent post, portugal has been downgraded, so the table is being set.
The questions I have at this time:
Is this the beginning of the denouement of the EURO or the $?
If the EURO falls does this cement $ reserve status-a bit longer anyway?
Do we have a game of currency chicken setting up here?
What happens if the IMF doesn't step in?
Given the US debt requirements, does it have to acquiesce to an IMF rescue?
Everyone is focusing on the EUR, but whats with the JPY?
The debt mountain finally coming home to roost there also?
The EUR is actually up against the JPY at time of writing.
Now we shall see if the US market equity dip buyers can pull this one out of the fire. This is one day, the first in a long time, where I would not be so confident.
Cara 100 Update
ADBE - target, estimate higher at Citi. ADBE price target lifted to $46 from $42 on strong guidance. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates set at $1.86 and $2.14, respectively. Maintain Buy rating.
ADBE - numbers boosted at Government Sachs. Shares of ADBE now seen reaching $44. Estimates also upped, given an expected recovery in enterprise spending. Buy rating.
ADBE - PT Raised from $37 to $38 @ Maxim Group. Hold.
BBY - estimates changed at Barclays. BBY 2010 EPS estimate lifted a penny to $3.12, 2011 lowered to $3.41. Reiterate Overweight rating and $47 price target.
BCR - CL King Initiates Coverage with a Strong Buy.
CCL - estimates, target increased at UBS. CCL estimates were boosted through 2011. Company is seeing better booking and pricing trends. Buy rating and new $43 price target.
CCL - target, estimates raised at Barclays. CCL price target jumped to $41 from $39 after strong 1Q10 results. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates lifted to $2.35 and $2.75, respectively. Maintain Equal Weight rating.
RCL - numbers raised at UBS. Shares of RCL now seen reaching $34. Estimates also increased, as the company is likely seeing better trends, like CCL. Neutral rating.
WAG - estimates lowered at UBS. WAG estimates were cut through 2011. Company was hurt by weak flu sales and operating costs will remain relatively high. Buy rating and $46 price target.
WFMI - downgraded at Longbow to Neutral. Although a recent survey was positive, the stock is up 35% since December.
NLS, GBE
NLS: bought back in at $3.19. I was waiting for a pullback and think this is a good entry point. Again, this is a play on a rebound in consumer spending. They have a good amount of cash on their books (after the tax refund) and no debt. They make things like the Bowflex and other workout equipment.
GBE: Bought at $2.18. Commercial real estate play.
Re: Everyone is focusing on the EUR, but whats with the JPY?
I am following the JPY like a hawk, but am just an amateur speculator. It is on the verge of breaking down from its uptrend which started in 2008. Todays gap sure speaks to me as the Yen is below its MA200. It acted as support twice this winter, but somebody just said "no más". Pair that with the EUR setting a new cycle low and the USD a higher high. Beautiful.
Judging from the press releases from BOJ since December, this currency is going down. Say hello to inflation again after 20 years of absence? "Hurray!"
Is there somebody out there who has serious knowledge about the land of the rising sun? Please update me.
EDIT: now slightly above MA200. It isnt over until the fat lady has sung.
Re: NLS, GBE
Sold GBE at $2.32.
ADES
Very interesting tiny cap company. I have followed this for years. They have a clean coal technology that was recently awarded a $200+ Million funding from the DOE. Well, today Arch Coal just announced an investment in them. This one could really run higher.
EDIT:
I don't like doing this but I bought at the high of the day at $7.95. I think this company could easily double from here.
Re: Did I Miss Something?
>>>If you wish to put it to me, why don't you rely on facts?
Bill - it wasn't my intent to "put it to" you.
My "intent" - though possibly not clear - was to try and make sense of what I saw as either a reversal in your opinion (which I may have missed in the Blog posts - I try and review all of your posts - but certainly could have missed some concerning this subject), or a blog post this morning that wasn't making sense to me.
As for facts - I don't believe there was anything in my original message was not factual. You've rightly called out people in the past for not quoting you correctly. I did my best to quote you directly, and even provided the date of the blog post I was quoting from.
>>>"It seems much more likely", as you say, is not a fact. So, what's your motive -- or is it just bad communication on your part -- to say to me, "Bill what am I missing?"
I'm not sure - but it seems you're saying that the reason that the $USD is not going down today, and precious metals not going up is because the IMF has not yet stepped in. If that's what you're saying - I understand.
>>>There are reasons, sometimes, why I just don't answer some of the material posted here.
>>>If you want to deal in stories, which come and go, which may be believable or not, why not just post your take, and leave me out of it. Thank you.
Again, I'm not posting "stories", calling you out, or the like. I "am" trying to make sense of why I saw the $USD going up, and precious metal prices going down - the opposite of what you had previously posted you thought would happen if the IMF stepped in to bailout Greece - which is that the news this morning was projecting. It's that simple - nothing more.
Thank you
The REAL debt mountain is HERE in the U.S. , folks
When you go to a bank to borrow money, the banker wants to know your income or revenue vs the amount of debt you are carrying. You don't really want to tell him you spend 20% more than that by borrowing more from nice guys like him each year, do you?
All these economist fools (or are they just accomplices to the con artists?) are comparing debt to GDP, not debt to tax revenues or debt to production. How much consumers spend in an economy like the US is something you don't want to mention, and yet here we are, they just add it into GDP and compare that to the debt, as though that spending was a GOOD thing.
For an HONEST comparison:
Try debt to tax revenues
or debt to production...
It changes the picture to where the U.S. is the worst of major nations because we are the one where 70% of the economy in that GDP number is consumer spending.
lfl & ewz
lfl: nice bounce on on the 22nd, confirmed on the 23rd, in today 17.34
ewz: bounced through resistance at 71.30 on 22nd. In today at 71.83
Brazilian Real down today vs. dollar, but up last two days.
Chilean Peso up for last two days.
If the IMF does bail out greece, it could have nice ramifications for developing markets. Real is only 1.4% of the total IMF SDR quota and the Peso's percentage is so small it isn't even in the top 20:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Monetar...
UXG - My PM stock of the year-Update
UXG announced further drilling results at El Gallo which were very good. CEO McEwen also announced that drilling has begun on "intriguing targets" surrounding El Gallo. It sounds good to me.
At the present time I have no position in UXG as I did some profit taking at $2.91 when I felt the price got overextended. Let's face it, a value of 1/3rd billion has been placed on a non producing entity which is rather high. The prospects look so enticing that I can understand it. However, with the price of gold currently in retreat, I am hoping for a lower price for reentry, nothing higher than mid $2.60s, hopefully below $2.50 if gold price drops below $1,000.
Because good drilling reports can be expected every few weeks, temporary lifts to the price could occur. But the real "stinger" will be the release of the initial resource estimate that will be issued in the 2nd quarter. I expect it to be outstanding but who knows? The preliminary economic analysis to be issued by year-end may be just an afterthought to the resource estimate. The first report deals with how rich this area really is, while the second report will involve mining startup estimates. I think they are still a few years away from startup and production.
Cara 100 Update (Final)
ADBE _ PT Raised from $43 to $46 @ RBC. Outperform
ADBE - PT Raised from $39.50 to $43 @ Credit Suisse. Outperform
Re: Did I Miss Something?
Nemo,
"Is this the beginning of the denouement of the EURO or the $?"
I think it may be and have taken a small, closely watched position in EUO.
"If the EURO falls does this cement $ reserve status-a bit longer anyway?"
Possibly it will have the effect at least tempoarily, but under current policies, the dollar will ultimately continue to be less valuable. Everyone now knows the dollar's ring is a loud clunk.
"Do we have a game of currency chicken setting up here?"
IMO the Central Bankers are simply taking turns looking better (less bad) than others. "After you." "No, after you." (clickety click of a mouse)
"What happens if the IMF doesn't step in?"
Won't this just be taking the US Fed/Treasury game to the international pretense level eventually causing global inflation?
"Given the US debt requirements, does it have to acquiesce to an IMF rescue?"
"It" being the EU members or the US?
Re: Everyone is focusing on the EUR, but whats with the JPY?
ballena,
I only watch the JPY as it is a major currency, have never traded it nor even any Japanese equities for that matter.
Having said that, I have spent some time trying to understand the bond world and how everything is connected, such as how the hedging of "Power Reverse Dual Currency notes" sold to Japanese investors can affect US Treasury swap rates:
http://forums.wallstreetexaminer.com/index.php?sho...
Saxobank had this in a comment today:
"USDJPY finally broke out of its torpor and pulled above the line of resistance created by day after day of range trading. Curiously, the bond market has come completely derailed today despite rising risk aversion in other markets today, and this is adding to the potential for this break higher in USDJPY to hold. The move has even taken the pair above the 200-day SMA which had previously held on the last two attempts at that MA in January and February. This is an important development for USDJPY as we move into the final few trading days of the Japanese financial year."
addendum:
Martin Armstrong in his latest handwritten "from the hole" piece writes:
"This currency (the EUR) looks capable of a penetrating the 2008 low followed by a violent swing above the 2008 high."
Would that suit the footprints of Humongous B&B, as Bill so fondly refers to them? The can't pull one of those major shakeouts off with say oil again soon, and the forex market is big & unregulated, so . . .
addendum 2:
oops!
180 Move Of The Day: Goldman Scraps Its Long Euro Call, Goes Short With 1.31 Target, 1.35 Stop, This Time The Other Way
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/180-move-day-gold...
Euro Doomed To Collapse
According to Pravda http://english.pravda.ru/
"The joint European currency may find itself between two traps formed by the policy of the European Central Bank and decisive actions taken by the USA’s Federal Reserve System."
EUR/USD 1.20 per Euro predicted
Re: Did I Miss Something?
Learn2Invest -
Yeap, you missed it by a country mile. Two factors to watch:
Since the U.S. pays 17.06% of the IMF quota to belong and has 16.77% of the voting share, it would be surprising to see the dominant member, in debt up to its eyeballs, support a Greek rescue without onerous debt commitments from Merkel and Sarkozy. EU summit today may reveal EU strategy to commit funds and seek IMF help which should all be dollar positive. Riots on hold until tomorrow in Deutschland ...
CFTC has a public hearing today to put position limits on Comex gold and silver. Monster shorts by JPMorgan Chase and HSBC may enter the mix. Could be the ignition of solid boosters but I doubt it.
These two events are driving the dollar and Comex gold and silver today. The outcomes are all that matters right now.
Stay thirsty my friend.
Edit: Funny you call Bill out and question his salient observation that, IF the IMF gets involved, the dollar will fall and the euro will rally with PM. You just ask why without one ioda of opinion as the dollar climbs and the IMF stands moot.
But I'd rather have a bottle in front of me,
Than have to have a frontal lobotomy. - Randy Hanzlick
Re: UK FSA kicking some butt
The selloff (in the Euro) was precipitated by fears that an IMF involvement in the Greek (Germany's preferred solution) budget crisis may not be enough to help Greece reduce its financing costs which are double that of Germany’s.
http://www.fx360.com/commentary/boris/3026/euro-hi...
IMF? USD? wha?????
i see nothing in the cards about the USD falling because of an IMF bailout,
all of this negatively impacts the EU more than any other region.
currencies like PM's are very often the product of perception. if markets are by and large illogical and irrational, it is tautology to decry "unusual" action in markets that have in some way become divorced from reality. the reality is that crooks, insiders and bubbles have existed long before markets did, and they will continue to do so.
what is happening now is nothing new or original. but the solutions are very often not as clear as we believe. much of what we thought would happen hasnt occurred in this sense. most believed the US would be supplanted by China, or that oil would eventually traded in euro's or that the EU would become a top dog.
from the start the Euro is doomed to failure, once the EU has to warn virtually every member of fiscal imprudence and its Debt to GDP targets are all but ignored across the board, we see the EU for what it truly is:
a paper tiger.
europe is the only continent that has been in slow decline. people simply dont take so many of the country's seriously any longer. when the most amicable traits of your nation are generous social systems and tourism, coupled with a legacy rich in history, you become at best a destination for tourism dollars and a slowly eroding, and aging workforce coupled with a massive black market economy that expect much from the state while seeking to undermine it at every step of the way in terms of paying taxes.
anyone from greece or italy knows exactly what im talking about. a left-leaning state by its very nature requires capital inflows from its tax base to support its collective aims. a black market economy is much more detrimental to such a state that a more capitalistic one. hence why so many left leaning states have histories rich in totalitarian leaderships and police-state antics: eventually the lifeblood of the nation is dependant on people's implicit support of the state by way of paying taxes on items and services that cost much less on a black market.
all while maintaining the very services it promotes as its best feature, greater numbers are employed to ensure taxes are paid in one form or another, and greater taxes are exacted on new or different things and activities to feed the growing state.
this happens along side deficits and ever greater debt. does anyone realize how drastic cuts would actually have been across much of the western world if states weren't allowed to slow the decline via greater debt? ugh.
there is no free lunch. those hoping to earn high salaries while retiring early will be the new version of yesteryear's aristocratic class. in Toronto a husband and wife who work as bus-drivers for our transit system will earn about $160,000 a year combined income towards the high end of their bracket, making them the social-welfare state's equivalent of a power couple. and the next group to be hired will very likely be their children or relatives, due to such high demand for these jobs. making it an aristocracy of blood lines once again. just without all the pomp and circumstance.
while this happens, i pay almost %50 more than what i did just a few years ago to ride that bus, which also comes slightly less often than it once did, is slightly more crowded than it once was, and take slightly longer to get to where im going...
no its not a sudden collapse, its a gradual decline, and because this is happening faster in the EU than in the US, therefore the EU will fall faster than the US. its happening now, and i see nothing to suggest the USD will begin another fall in the next little while.
gold may very well hold up but that is another story for another time my friends....
as always, your loyal servant,
dr. cosa MD.
ADES
Added more at $7.60. I'm probably stubborn but I think this is going much much higher in the next few months. See my earlier post: Clean Coal patented technology + DOE funding + tax incentives + investment by a major coal company + breaking out technically.
Beware: very volatile.
Re: IMF? USD? wha?????
Dr. Cosa, MD -
"no its not a sudden collapse, its a gradual decline, and because this is happening faster in the EU than in the US, therefore the EU will fall faster than the US. its happening now, and i see nothing to suggest the USD will begin another fall in the next little while."
The healthcare bill being signed by President Obama today socializes a full 1/6th of the U.S. economy. He socialized two of the three automakers, Freddie and Fannie, and seized AIG last year while forcing the merger of Merrill to BofA and killing off Lehman to Goldman's benefit. State debt in Cali and Illinois are about to collapse. That's all happening pretty fast, I'd say.
I don't see decline in Europe. It's pretty swank by comparison to our sprawl and big box Chinese crap dipensers. You should read some Kunstler, my friend.
Cheers.
this stuff is based on fiction
Well Vad, let's see.
About fundamentals. The market is sometimes a good predictor of future economic activity, and sometimes a poor predictor. In my opinion, right now the market is predicting rosy times ahead judging from the multiples it is assigning to future earnings. I do not believe this to be a likely outcome going forward - medium term. Thus, "the market is detached from fundamentals" - as I see it. A fundamental in this case is expected future earnings.
About stuff being based on fiction, and things not ending well. I'm using not-ending-well as a "common usage" term. Pretend I had a pension. What would "not ending well" mean for me? Down, right? As for fiction, I'm referring to the constant drumbeat of recovery based on government spending of money borrowed from others - 12% of GDP last year alone - housing market supports, unemployment supports, cash for clunkers, free money for the bankers, etc. That's not real economic activity, its fictional - activity dragged from the future to the present - and if the supports were removed, then we could see what the "real" activity looked like. Lower.
So, market is predicting continued positive future economic performance because it is mistaking government sponsored activity which is unsustainable for real economic activity which is sustainable.
All my opinion, which I recognize does not help me look at prices in a neutral way.
Re: IMF? USD? wha?????
"The healthcare bill being signed by President Obama today socializes a full 1/6th of the U.S. economy. He socialized two of the three automakers, Freddie and Fannie, and seized AIG last year while forcing the merger of Merrill to BofA and killing off Lehman to Goldman's benefit."
RE: Killing Lehman; wasn't Pres. Bush/Hank Paulson in office at that time?
Remember. Before you leave for the day.
BUY THE DIP!
Market doesn't like last auction
TREASURY'S $42B 5-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAWS 2.605%; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.55 V 2.75 PRIOR AND 2.53 AVG OVER THE LAST 10 AUCTIONS
- indirect bidders take 39.7% of competitive bids with 29.97% allotted at the high.
- direct bidders take 10.79%, primary dealers 49.6%.
- median 2.539%, low 2.45%.
Re: Market doesn't like last auction
It sure didn't. It was prepared for this too, TBT was up a bunch before the report. Hazard a guess on this one: China's upcoming trade deficit means they can't buy US treasuries anymore. Who does that leave? Japan?
And with the Fed exiting QE (allegedly), who will buy these longer term notes?
Re: IMF? USD? wha?????
wilberking -
"RE: Killing Lehman; wasn't Pres. Bush/Hank Paulson in office at that time?"
Yes, but who the %$#@*! cares about partisian identification when the two party system distracts WE THE PEOPLE with abortion and WMD rhetoric while snuffing the Constitution and selling the productive soul of the Declaration of Independence to China at zero interest? AIG was seized illegally without just compensation against its shareholders will in violation of the Bill of Rights' Amendment V. Both Republican and Democrat are at fault when it comes to abuse of these certain unalienable Rights.
If your point is to lay claim to Democrats being on some higher moral ground than Republicans when it comes to socializing the U.S. economy, here's a news flash: Big Brother has arrived and he owns you.
Back to trading. Behold, the Ides of March is here.
Peace.
OMG! HAMP 2MP
You can't make this stuff up. Treaury is now bailing the second lien holders who supposedly took the most risk in second position. Subscribers include: Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Chase and assorted HB&B piling on.
exerpt the Directive: Second Lien Modification Program (2MP)
"Under 2MP, when a borrower’s first lien is modified under HAMP and the servicer of the second lien is a 2MP participant, that servicer must offer either to modify the borrower’s second lien according to a defined protocol or to accept a lump sum payment from Treasury in exchange for full extinguishment of the second lien. The 2MP offer will be made in reliance on the financial information provided by the borrower in conjunction with the HAMP modification and without additional evaluation by the second lien servicer."
https://www.hmpadmin.com/portal/docs/second_lien/s...
This program was introduced (but not subscribed to) until Janauary 2010. Of course these are only guidelnes to be interpreted liberally. And they are.
bill's junior gold miners
So Bill, I'd like to hear more about your junior gold miners. You went trolling for companies at that conference, and you hinted that you'd be sharing some of these miners with the group here, and I'm wondering how that's coming along. Gold is dutifully dropping (from your lips to God's ears) and I for one certainly don't want to miss out with some cheap babies that have been thrown out with the bath water.
:)
Re: Market doesn't like last auction
That leaves a whole lot of banks and people like you and me.
Interesting movement in Ags today.
Mos, Pot, Agu.. were all taken down by almost the same % ratio this am, then doubled up on volume to the highs... Hard to tell, though, if they will be bid up unless some big news comes out.. Like fundamentals of Mos the best, although it is handled like SEED these days... unreal, with its market cap and float, but it is what it is...
help for subprime and alt-A
Bank of America is forgiving loan principal. I think this actually has a chance of working. Imagine that, after only 3 years. Of course it doesn't apply to the 30 year fixed crowd, but then again, who cares about them? They're probably the LTB&H crowd too.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN24165532201003...
WASHINGTON, March 24 (Reuters) - Under pressure from Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley, Bank of America (BAC.N) on Wednesday said it would offer about $3 billion in loan forgiveness to about 45,000 troubled homeowners.
Bank of America pledged to offer an "earned principal forgiveness" of up to 30 percent for homeowners nationwide who owe more than 120 percent of the value of their home.
The forgiveness would be offered in two stages for the riskiest loans, including subprime loans and loans which offered borrowers multiple options for how much to pay each month. Ineligible are 30-year fixed rate loans.
The lender will first offer an interest-free forbearance of principal that the homeowner can turn into forgiven principal annually over five years, provided they stay current on their payments.
The forgiveness can allow a homeowner to bring the loan value back down to 100 percent of the home's value over five years.
Re: IMF? USD? wha?????
dr.cosa,
MD? wha????? You are kidding, right? I thought you were a writer.
ok, re "i see nothing in the cards about the USD falling because of an IMF bailout"
Let's do a patient work up Dr:
If the Fed must print Dollars to bail out California, do you see that as strengthening the Dollar, or weakening it?
If the ECB must print euro to bail out Greece, do you see that as strengthening the Euro, or weakening it?
If the Fed must print Dollars to half bail-out Greece do you see that as strengthening the Dollar, or weakening it?
Re: Market doesn't like last auction
Treasuries. If the Euro is falling would that not make treasuries appealing to Euro members.
Re: IMF? USD? wha?????
I don't know. This things are tricky. Japan printed gobs of yen since 1990 and have the highest debt:GDP ratio (270% last time I checked), much higher than USA and even Zimbabwe? but no inflation there and yen has been rising at many times.
Jack Crooks from Black Swan Capital wrote in today's newsletter (free subscription):
"From a technical standpoint, the next likely target for EURUSD is near the 1.3100 level. It would represent a nice extension of minor wave -5- down based on the stylized Wave chart we’ve been working from [...]
Can the euro go a lot lower? Absolutely! Will it? We think so. Par is another word we have been using lately."
He is very very bullish on dollar and was so before the market crash in fall 2008. Beware.
FD: 100% cash. The UUP call hit sell limit today. Will look into repurchase.
Re: Everyone is focusing on the EUR, but whats with the JPY?
The hard-wired connection between US yields and the USDJPY I posted about in the previous post, which does not seem to be generally known, may well produce some weird consequences (more so than swap spread going "unnaturally" negative) if things are pushed too far . . . which I assume they will be in times like this.
Is USDJPY About To Take Off?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/usdjpy-about-take
"Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP
It is our long held view that USDJPY is headed much higher than where it is now. Today we attach a chart of the 10Y US Treasury yield and USDJPY. We can see on the monthly chart that US yields and USDJPY are highly correlated, and that over the last 10 years divergence between the two has been reducing a lot. This goes along with correlations across markets increasing dramatically over the past decade. However zooming in using the weekly chart we see that over the last year or so, USDJPY has been underperforming quite strongly US yields compared to their historical relationship.
. . . ."
_________________________________________________________
more from Saxobank in the same vein:
"FX Note: Is USDJPY set for a rally 100+?
A big move today as the US 5-year auction results were given credit for setting of a rip-roaring sell-0ff in US bond markets, as the 2-year yield rocketed above 1.00% and the US 10-year yields also stretched sharply higher. This has clear implications for USDJPY, which tends to slavishly follow long US yields, due to its bonds seemingly permanent yield inferiority. Is this the warning shot for a run to 100 in USDJPY?
. . . "
Re: Market doesn't like last auction
Re: "Hazard a guess on this one: China's upcoming trade deficit means they can't buy US treasuries anymore. Who does that leave? Japan?
And with the Fed exiting QE (allegedly), who will buy these longer term notes?"
Europeans could. Their good bonds (german) trade at premium (low) yield and no one wants to touch PIGS bonds. People will flock to USA bonds with decent yield and prospect of rising dollar (that is happening).
Stocks are toppy and rolling over. I would not personally short bonds, even though it worked today.
Pick your brain?
SWC. Stillwater Mining Company. My screener has spit this company out. Does anyone know anything about it.
Thanks,
Bob
Re: IMF? USD? wha?????
thx for the response Bill,
"MD? wha????? You are kidding, right? I thought you were a writer."
i suffer from a unique form of grandiosity whereby i am neither a writer nor a doctor but practice both informally ;)
"If the Fed must print Dollars to bail out California, do you see that as strengthening the Dollar, or weakening it?"
weakening it. but i dont believe that is the central question, nor is it the salient factor in determining one's macro-view.
the question to me is principally:
has this weakening already occurred as part of the cascading value in the USD the past several years with considerations of bailouts and further bailouts baked in the cake?
to this i have no answer but price is my guide and right now the USD continues to move upwards as problems in the EU continue to simmer.
"If the ECB must print euro to bail out Greece, do you see that as strengthening the Euro, or weakening it?"
weakening it. once again the salient issue surrounds how a weakening member state affects the whole, as it stands with the whole being greater than the sum of its parts both metaphorically and fiscally.
did the collapse of the steel industry and manufacturing in general, a pivotal piece of Ontario's economy negatively affect Canada? at first glance yes. at second glance? i dont believe so if we examine typical metrics of economic prosperity in which the Canadian economy still grew during this period of decline in one area, wages rose (somewhat), the local economy most affected saw housing prices still rise, and development grow elsewhere.
so is Greece's failure one which the EU will have to bear? yes,
but the failure of a nation compared to the failure of a state like California is in all respects much more damaging beyond linear economic comparisons such as GDP and pension obligations.
therefore the failures of the US are in my mind of lesser urgency than the EU, which itself has additional issues well beyond US problems w/ its own states. these are nations that were not too long ago at war with eachother,
i dont believe the kind of socio-economic dislocations and instabilities that could happen in Greece have their equivalent in California. a standing army of a few hundred thousand looking for food because the state is paying them in IOU's is not the same as tax returns and city contracts getting them.
"If the Fed must print Dollars to half bail-out Greece do you see that as strengthening the Dollar, or weakening it?"
as noted, it would weaken the dollar less on a relative basis compared to the EU, hence the USD has been rising the past few weeks while the EU is facing a laundry list of problems.
currency issues can play out over such long periods that i hesitate to equate the current problems in the US with a weaker dollar over the short to intermediate term. and if we agree that a market dump is in the cards, as usual the irrationality of the market will in my mind do what it has done the past while and move to USD in the panic. not gold, not safe stocks or bonds. even more so as europeans, especially germans are feeling that their own currency is less and less a store of value in the current climate. i dont believe the billions in german capital outflows would prefer roubles, yuan or yen to the USD in times of crisis.
hence my serious questions about a bearish USD scenario amidst another panic scenario in any part of the world.
dr. cosa
LYM
ALOHA!!
Yesterday and today I added 142,000 shares of LYM at $0.17CDN.
One of the few Ukraine focused(not 100%) Canadian mining companies I know of. They are developing a very large anthracite coal mine which was abandoned many years ago. The CEO tells me they have some new deals in the works. The latest government changes in the Ukraine I think will be a more positive outlook for future foreign investment. All the political risk aside you cannot ignore the vast wealth of the Ukraine in terms of agriculture, mining and energy.
I am glad to see the US puppet removed by popular vote and I am glad to see his successor focusing on neutrality, not abandoning Russia, which is very foolhardy of the former PM, since a large population of Russians is in the Ukraine. With the abandonment of NATO and the US neocon agendas I believe the Ukraine is on a more stable geopolitical footing than before. So the new government will renew ties with Russia and look to the West as well for more foreign investments in order to stabilize their economy. After all much of the EU gas pipelines flow through the Ukraine as well so a more stable Ukraine means a more stable energy outlook for the EU.
In my opinion LYM is well positioned to reap the rewards of foreign investment opportunities as they already have boots on the ground and are moving forward.
The share price has pulled back enough for me to up my position. This company is thinly traded.
From the LYM website ...
The pace of foreign investment into Ukraine is high, but there has been little investment into the mining sector. As an early entrant, Lysander expects to benefit both from the quality of the Verticalnaya project and exposure to other opportunities.
Lysander is in a unique position to:
* Be a leader in investing into the Ukraine mining sector,
* Benefit from years of work by Ukraine Coal (the vendor),
* Acquire substantial existing assets including two deep shaft systems,
* Achieve good results by developing one of the first modern coal mines in Ukraine, and
* Potentially develop new opportunities within the Donbass coal region.
The Company is well positioned - with a very experienced and accomplished Board of Directors, which now includes: Mr. John Conlon, whose directorships include Cambrian Mining PLC, Western Canadian Coal Corp. and Coal International PLC, who has extensive experience in underground mining operations and the management of mines.
LINK: http://www.lysanderminerals.com/s/Home.asp
OT: polls
Is it possible to do polls on this site? I would be interested in a feature like that. The only bad thing would be the risk of abuse (by doing nonsense polls).
The results and voting could be done in the same post. Only for registered users of course (1 vote per head). Later on this could be developed further.
Was this a stupid idea? If so, forget it all.
EDIT: It could all start by Mr Cara opening the poll(s) at the daily write up. Doing that we would all be sure that we only have relevant polls. The poll would close by market close.
Re: LYM
kaimu,
new guy is just as corrupt, corrosive and divisive as old guy. Don't think for a second he is any better or his policies are any smarter. Whether situation becomes more stable and for how long, will depend on how well the part of population hating everything Russian can be controlled, and of course how economy fares.
Nor he is more likely to create better climate for Western investments - if anything, his ideology is opposite. However, the thing about that part of the world is, money trumps ideology any time of the day. So, the only real question is, whether your company is plugged in right circles and people, and whether they hold the power long enough for the plans to materialize.
Re: help for subprime and alt-A
davefairtex,
Agreed: writing off principal would help subprime borrowers. And of course it helps the bank stem losses by reorganizing debt rather than foreclose on questionable values. No doubt the infamous loss share areements will be called upon so 'we' help make up those shortfalls to HB&B. Expect a backlash from responsible borrowers who didn't go for those teaser low rates. (LTB&H meaning?)
Re: LYM
kaimu,
Thanks for the idea. I agree with Vad about the new guy yet the situation has/will improve substantially. Ukraine is a torn country. West of the Dneiper is mostly ethnic Ukrainians with a lot of Uniates. East is mostly ethnic Russians. The donbas is in and around Donyetks which is pretty much Russian. Don't misunderstand when I say Russian. Most ethnic Russians even though they speak Russian consider themselves patriotic Ukranians.
The whole tilt to the West was a huge mistake. The last thing Russia wanted was NATO on their doorstep. Most Ukrainians were opposed to the idea as well. At least most that I know.
Ukraine is a beautiful country. They used to be the breadbasket of Europe before WWI. The ag potential is huge. Ukraine could use some expertise is safe coal mining. A friend is the chief thoracic surgeon at the state hospital and from what he tells me, black lung is as bad as it was in the U.S. in the 20's.
Interesting idea. Thanks again.
Re: LYM
kaimu,
Thanks for the idea. I agree with Vad about the new guy yet the situation has/will improve substantially. Ukraine is a torn country. West of the Dneiper is mostly ethnic Ukrainians with a lot of Uniates. East is mostly ethnic Russians. The donbas is in and around Donyetks which is pretty much Russian. Don't misunderstand when I say Russian. Most ethnic Russians even though they speak Russian consider themselves patriotic Ukranians.
The whole tilt to the West was a huge mistake. The last thing Russia wanted was NATO on their doorstep. Most Ukrainians were opposed to the idea as well. At least most that I know.
Ukraine is a beautiful country. They used to be the breadbasket of Europe before WWI. The ag potential is huge. Ukraine could use some expertise is safe coal mining. A friend is the chief thoracic surgeon at the state hospital and from what he tells me, black lung is as bad as it was in the U.S. in the 20's.
Interesting idea. Thanks again.
Re: LYM
ALOHA!!
Vad ... DA!!! For starters here is a link to one of the "old guys" ... Hopefully that is not your idea of an "old guy" ... Which old guy were you talking about?
LINK: http://tinyurl.com/yea32o5
I know the Ukraine will probably never be as free of corruption as the USA and the West, but somehow LYM has managed to negotiate the mine acquisition under the former government and is on their way to making further acquisitions and mining production under the new government. Of course money talks. In what country is it that money has no voice?
Corruption is corruption, but the "new guy" is not pitting his country against Russia for the favor of US neocon agendas to isolate Russia militarily. I believe such a move away from lopsided military agendas would stimulate more foreign investment not less since it takes the "Georgia image" off the table. That whole tired agenda of US worldwide military supremacy has been a huge US Foreign Policy failure since Korea as well as a huge drain on the US Treasury for decades. There are many examples of how US Foreign Policy has actually created instability in regions. Definitely a more neutral stance would benefit the Ukraine more not less.
The former government wanted to suspend the Russian navy leasing rights to the Black Sea port of Stevastapol due in 2017 but the new government has vowed that Russia's leasing rights will be renewed. The Russian navy has been in Stevastapol since 1783, so why would the Orange Revolution, funded by Washington DC, all of a sudden want to threaten the Russian navy? Neutrality between the superpowers seems the best course, not threats and isolationist agendas.
I believe LYM will achieve their production goals, besides at $0.17 the share price is due for a bounce and as long as the company fundamentals are still intact, which they are, I see no reason why the share price would not move higher from these very oversold levels.
Here is the latest news release from day before yesterday ...
Mon Mar 22, 2010
Update on Coal Interests
Vancouver, Canada -- Lysander Minerals Corporation (TSXV: LYM) (the "Company") is pleased to report that plans for developing early production from the Verticalnaya mine held by its Ukraine subsidiary East Coal Company ("ECC") are now well advanced. It is currently anticipated that development will commence with the Verticalnaya North satellite project; while development activities at the main Verticalnaya mine will ramp up as soon as possible thereafter.
Since the Company acquired ECC, detailed improvements have been made at the Verticalnaya mine and engineering work and studies have been conducted on the Verticalnaya North project.
Discussions on the financing of developments in Ukraine are currently being held.
The outlook for coal is very strong and coal production in Ukraine represents an unusual opportunity. The Verticalnaya project has made the Company a leader among western coal mining companies involved in Ukraine.
A NI 43-101 technical report on the Verticalnaya project is available on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and the Company's website at www.lysanderminerals.com.
Key project indicators shown in the report are:
Initial capital expenditures - US$ 237.8 million
Net present value @12% - US$ 352.1 million
Internal rate of return - 35.2%
Average cash operating cost per saleable tonne - US$ 31.19/tonne
Pay back period - 7 years
Proven reserves - 16,200,000 tonnes
Probable reserves - 11,000,000 tonnes
Measured resources - 57,300,000 tonnes
Indicated resources - 18,900,000 tonnes
Total resources - 76,200,000 tonnes
Gold US Debt Correlation
from Jesse's blog:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/S6p6tsQXhoI/...
Need anyone say more?
Re: LYM
By "old guy" I mean previous president of course! LOL, that link was funny... not, that's not my idea of old guy :)
See, here is one thing about your construct... whatever you think of what is right or wrong path for Ukraine, you'd have to define which Ukraine you speak of, because there are basically two Ukraines, as Ross said. One (East/Center) is pro-Russian and another (West) is dead set against anything Russian. It's not a new thing, this division existed for ages. Division is a very "soft" word btw, hatred would be closer. Find someone speaking Ukrainian and ask what "zaprdodanci moskaliv" means (westerners nickname for easterners). You think Ukraine should be closer with Russia - well, western Ukraine will beg to differ. They view themselves as overrun and enslaved, and their land as occupied by Russia. Thus, previous president was the one expressing views closer to Western Ukraine, while new one is closer to Eastern - that's all.
Oh, and Russian navy being in Sevastopol from 18 century is from whole other story - Crimea was not a part of Ukraine till Kruschev transferred it from Russia to Ukraine in 1954.
Anyway, my main point is: all this has very little if any influence on what happens with your company and its stock. Their, company, relationship with "right people" will - be it "old" guy or "new" guy. Under both pro-Russian and pro-Western governments some foreign companies succeeded and some didn't, depending on how successfully they navigated murky waters of deep corruption.
(Still chuckling about your link to "old guy"... )
Re: Gold US Debt Correlation
Re: Need anyone say more?
LOL. Good luck staying long gold through 80' and 90' while the "correlation" was strong R^2 wise.
Dollar will plummet to 0 eventually, but the coming dollar spike can wreck havoc to investors just like it did in late 2008.
I have a feeling this can be big.
Bill Murphy interview
As per GATA news release:
GATA Chairman Bill Murphy was interviewed for five minutes today on the Business News Network in Canada about the rigging of the gold and silver markets, tomorrow's hearing of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on futures trading in the precious metals, and GATA's hope to present "whistle blower" evidence at that hearing. You can watch the interview at the BNN Internet site here:
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip280484
Re: Bill Murphy interview
That was scary !
He sets himself up as a "whistle-blower" and he points to "Europe" no one in particular as the source of manipulation.
This bears a lot of attention.
Thanks Bill, would have never bothered if you hadn't pointed this out !
A.
Re: Bill Murphy interview
i admire the work of GATA and Bill Murphy,
but i must register my objections as always with their work:
their failure to provide actual names of their "inside" sources is their biggest detriment. they will neither be heard nor taken seriously on a large enough scale without substantiating their claims.
all the best and if their claims are true, those long gold stand to benefit.
i have yet to see proof of anything,
Long Road to $1.7 Million
As I work in California I am last to add but hope another view helps now and then. Last weeks pick FCH is up 36.46% in a week and MPG is up 45.34 for the same week. FBR Research upgraded FCH from Market Perform to Outperform this morning with 19% of its gains today. RQI which I posted last year has went up 244% in the year.
Doing my dd I am watching Deerfield Capital Corp (DFR). Bank of America announced it will look first at principal forgiveness ahead of an interest rate reduction when modifying certain subprime, Pay-Option and prime two-year hybrid mortgages qualifying for its National Homeownership Retention Program. The news that banks are looking to the option of reducing principal is driving mortgage insurers higher.
Charts indicate 3/23/07 a share price of $1,735.00 at the top of mortgage cycle and a low of .90 cents in the last year. It now is moving back up somewhat. (DFR) manages client assets, including bank loans and other corporate debt, RMBS, government securities and asset-backed securities (ABS). The Company's investment portfolio consists of fixed income investments, including bank loans and other corporate debt and residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS).
For DFR the shorts have dropped from 33.8k to 21.8k a Short Interest as % of Float of 0.48. Return on Equity (TTM) is – 293%. They are taking over $1.8B In CLO Contracts from an investment manager specializing in leveraged loan credit products. Using $25.0 million of stock (at an implied price per share of $5.50) and deferred payments totaling $7.5 million of cash payable over five years. Additionally, Bounty has agreed to purchase $25.0 million in principal amount of senior subordinated convertible notes ("Convertible Notes") issued by the Company.
http://www.deerfieldcapital.com/
I don't know mortgage as well as some of you and it is listed as support at $5.37 closing today at $6.22 with it up 5% as I think it over again tonight. After all a 1000 shares held long enough to return to the glory days. . . . .
Could use some thought about the companies holding 'all the worthless paper' as some might pay off.
Thanks
Re: LYM
ALOHA!!
Yes, there is always factions that are "pro this" and "anti that" ... There is always some sort of "country risk"!
It boils down to I am betting that the LYM management team will be able to successfully bring the mine into production with the many experienced directors on board. That is the "risk" ...
Re: LYM
An old Ukranian puzzle about a man who was born in the Austrian Empire, grew up in the Second Polish Republic, worked in the Soviet Union and died in the Ukraine and never left the city of Lviv.
In my humble experience, Russia is a chirocracy (rule by club, the wooden kind). A subtle difference but in the West, money is power. In Russia, power is wealth. The social structure is still somewhat Slavic-feudal. If LYM has connections and is willing to pay, they will do OK for a while. I recall a conversation with Paul Oriface CEO of Dow Chem back in the 70's. He said (not to be repeated) that in Brazil their full payback on invested capital was under 3 years per project. Such was the political risk and as long as the board would allow.
Re: Long Road to $1.7 Million
REITS are all the rage so the potential to make money on this is there. Volume is a little too low for me, though. Oh, and that $1,735 price doesn't look right even after accounting for a 1 for 10 reverse split. Looks more like $200/share. Also, you need to temper your enthusiasm by looking at how many shares there are now vs how many there were back at the high.
Regarding the biz > its still operating at a loss after backing out gains in its previous two quarters so don't fall in love with the company. Looks like it saw the bottom of the abyss and it came back...how high it will go is anyone's guess. the fact that it's doing acquisitions now is encouraging. If the market stays hot you could probably see a 50% gain quickly.
Re: The REAL debt mountain is HERE in the U.S. , folks
ALOHA!!
Yep ... for March 23rd the US TREASURY took in $684MIL USD in net tax revenues against $11.435BIL USD of outlays for the day. That's nearly 17 times(1700%) leverage ... That is a "deficit" in my book as well!
Of course for the naysayers it isn't that bad every day as sometimes its only a 640% leveraged deficit.
Yet by the US Treasury and their own historical records on average 31.7% of the US GDP, since 1970, is government spending. I doubt that average is on the decline for FY2010.
Really?
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve policymakers should deepen their understanding about how to combat speculative bubbles to reduce the chances of another financial crisis, the central bank's outgoing vice chairman said Wednesday.
----------
Here's an idea...do away with yourselves. That would be a good start.
Re: LYM
Not related to LYM. just as an, ummm, entertainment of sorts, and to give you an idea of colorful happenings of that place around times I left it:
http://tinyurl.com/yzq2p4f
And this guy mentioned in the article above I've met 6 months before this happened:
http://tinyurl.com/yhljexj
And you think you've got it bad here in USA?? :)
Re: Long Road to $1.7 Million
The high was from my ScotTrade charts and I looked for a high high. I also saw 71,000 trading today. My other two are on fire but I don't want to unbalance my positions by going to far into one sector. The thought was some balance sheets may get a boost if the banks start forgiving principal. My gut would not let me do it at 5 am here this morning. I knew insiders were purchasing FCH (7) and using there own money. Also thought MPG was a good short squeeze with such a high amount of shorts last week and the talk at Lion.com regarding it. Thanks but hopefully some will find a ticker or two that works for us.
Re: Bill Murphy interview
dr. cosa -
"i admire the work of GATA and Bill Murphy,
but i must register my objections as always with their work: their failure to provide actual names of their "inside" sources is their biggest detriment. they will neither be heard nor taken seriously on a large enough scale without substantiating their claims."
Did you watch the video? Mr. Murphy will reveal this unexpected and new "Deep Throat" person, a trader from Europe, tomorrow at the hearing.
Cheers.
Principal Forgiveness Plan Bad for Junior Bondholders
Barclays Capital states:
"In particular, the program presents a “clear negative” for junior mezzanine and subordinate debt holders, as well as moral hazard risk as borrowers intentionally default to receive principal forgiveness."
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/03/24/bofa-princip...
Re: The REAL debt mountain is HERE in the U.S. , folks
I read somewhere recently that the Federal government is spending about $1.50 for every $1 it takes in taxes.
Funny, I can't find that anywhere on the treasury site. Just a daily statement, no summary, no totals.
Maybe I'm just clueless where to look?
Re: LYM
ALOHA!!
Okay Vad I can top that as I actually met this guy when I lived in New Orleans! Edwin Edwards, the Governor of Louisiana for 16 years and 7 years in the US Congress.
LINK: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edwin_Edwards
His "street creds" reads like a who's who of crime and yet he was elected as governor, whereby the citizens of Louisiana had a choice between David Duke, a KKK klansman and Edwin Edwards, a mafia connected crook. Edwards bumper stickers during the 1991 campaign were "Elect the Crook" and "Vote for the Lizard Not the Wizard". Even he had this to say about the campaign, one of his last, "The only thing we have in common is that we both have been wizards beneath the sheets." I mean talk about voting the "lesser evil" ... The mafia vs the kkk ... Hummmmm, who do I vote for? Edwards won election as governor by a landslide!
Edwards was found guilty on 17 of 26 counts, including racketeering, extortion, money laundering, mail fraud and wire fraud; his son was convicted on 18 counts. After the verdict Edwards said this, "I did not do anything wrong as a governor, even if you accept the verdict as it is, it doesn't indicate that". On his way to prison he said, "I will be a model prisoner, as I have been a model citizen". Power blinds these people to reality.
Ukraine politicians cannot compete against Louisiana's "best" ... What makes Louisiana politics so uniquely corrupt is that all their crimes are out in the open for all to see and talk about, yet somehow that has been viewed as some sort of political asset, ever since Huey Long days.
Re: The REAL debt mountain is HERE in the U.S. , folks
ALOHA !!
"I read somewhere recently that the Federal government is spending about $1.50 for every $1 it takes in taxes."
If only that were true I could believe in the US Treasury again! I cannot vouch for the total "daily" average, as some days are way off the charts, but for FY 2010, so far here is the YTD ratio as of March 23, per US Treasury Daily Statement.
NET OUTLAYS - $2.11TRIL
GROSS OUTLAYS - $5.21TRIL
NET TAX REVENUES - $700.1BIL
GROSS TAX REVENUES - $970.1BIL
NET RATIO = FOR EVERY $1USD THE US TREASURY SPENDS $3.01 USD
GROSS RATIO = FOR EVERY $1USD THE US TREASURY SPENDS $5.37 USD
Re: The REAL debt mountain is HERE in the U.S. , folks
I didn't know it was that bad. The 1.5 was an approximation from a site I found the revs and spending for FY2009