Morning Call [7:27am ET] Rushing to get to the airport yesterday, I made sure I brought with me two laptop computers and a projector, plus five suits and two bottles of Nassau Royale, figuring I might stay in Canada up to a month. To my distress this morning, I discovered I packed none of the electrical stuff, like power cables and mice. Either that or I removed that bag from my carry-on and left it on the plane.
Unplugged and unhappy. That’s me.
I’ll make this short; the Dollar trade got too crowded. I warned.
This morning, although the Dollar is a tad stronger and the Euro a bit soft, precious metals and crude oil are holding up. Asia-Pacific equities were weak today, while Europe is undecided but presently leaning south. US equity futures are flat. All is quiet.
I’m going to take some time off now and figure out how to get plugged back in.
Hopefully everybody will read (and discuss) the important Goldman Sachs research piece that I linked on the home page (see information on the top right).
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Despite the conspicuous buying in high profile go-go momentum stocks, the Bulls were unable to generate enough enthusiasm to entice buyers to chase prices ahead of the release of Friday’s US unemployment report. Volume was atrocious (barely ½ of average in the emini S&P futures), as prices oscillated around break-even for most of the session before a brief burst of short covering pushed prices towards daily highs at the close (S&P +0.37%).
When the big boys want to goose the market higher they target glamour stocks to get retail traders involved in the frenzy. Racing right out of the starting gate, Goldman Sachs (GS +3.73%), Amazon (AMZN +2.10%), and Google (GOOG +1.70%) were all bid up in hopes of getting buyers off the sidelines, and eager to deploy some spare cash. Once it became apparent that prices weren’t going up, up, and away, apathy set in as traders simply pulled their bids and offers, content to simply observe (and gripe about) the lethargic price action.
A report out of Germany speculated the only way to rescue Greece was to effectively “devalue” the Euro (FXE -0.74%), causing a brief run on the continental currency as players bought Dollars (DXY ) and sold commodities priced in dollars; e.g., Silver (SLV -0.30%), Gold (GLD -0.73%), and Crude Oil (USO -0.57%) all were under steady selling pressure.
US government spokesmen cautioned that the jobs report will be adversely impacted by severe weather conditions experienced by much of the nation. By tempering expectations ahead of the report, the bar to surpass consensus numbers has been effectively lowered.
Expect a barrage of so-called experts to be called to Tout TV to rationalize the high unemployment rates and lack of job creation. That ought to soothe the nerves of edgy traders. Or maybe Tout TV has already seen the report and it shows jobs actually being created. This would now set up for a huge short squeeze as traders bracing for a bad number are forced to reach for a dwindling supply of offers as prices skyrocket in orbit.
Stock prices go up, people feel richer and better about their economic situation, start to spend money at the malls, demand picks up as inventory is cleared and factories need to be ramped up, businesses then begin to hire, yada yada.
The government wouldn’t really deliberately try to create an emotional buying panic, would they?
Have a great evening.
Comments
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
BA - Upgraded to Neutral @ UBS
BA - C.K. Cooper Initiates Coverage with a Buy.
KO - Upgraded to Buy @ UBS
Why I come here each day...
Nearly all the 24/7 news is short term thinking. The same is true of CEOs and politicians.
I'm trying to deal with possibly 15 to 20 more years for my wife and me and with our kids beyond that. All too often even longer range thinking offers no workable plan.
At Cara Community I find practical advice, and actionable strategies.
The above was the result of a comment made I made this AM to an Illini link on yesterdays posts.
---------------
Illini,
As many know, I'm about as cynical as anyone about government, Wall St. and the future of our economy — Paul Farrell's writing rings true to me, but...
I have been reading him for years and he nearly always leaves me feeling worse without any alternative action plan.
His last "where to" I can remember was sort of "a little child shall lead you" approach with a diversified ETF approach. (A Fifth Grader's Portfolio)
Now he says... "Sell all your stocks, ETFs, bonds and funds. Get out of commodities and gold. Sell."
Great! And then what? Sit on your cash while it continues to evaporate due to dollar denigration?
I saw my business evaporate due to "globalization" and the disappearance of US manufacturing until my last year before Soc. Sec. eligibility I did 11% of my 40-year average and we began tapping our investments.
He's making his living with advice that goes nowhere. Stupidly, I gave it away free to my "representatives" and they figured you get what you pay for.
Re: peak oil buggery
davefairfax:
re your previous comments on taking a long perspective in oil and peak oil:
look at the price of oil rising from $10 to $80 in a decade and what do we actually see:
1. economy still grew
2. people still bought cars, drove them and found money to still buy gas
3. in spite of a temporary panic spike prices settled back down and life went on
4. when oil was $50 a barrel they said $90 or $100 would mean WW3
5. when oil moved back down to $50 after the spike people spoke of it having
a stimulative effect on the economy
6. i dont know why we are drilling off the coast of brazil, but i do know whatever we are doing seems to be working well enough that nat gas remains cheap and is in over supply
7. the oil and gas stocks arent even close to their highs of 2 years ago, the clock is ticking between the doomsday sayers and the chartists who are slowly seeing nothing to indicate a return to those highs anytime soon.
8. no one is suggesting electric will replace gas, but i among others are suggesting that these other sources are gaining steam and help to bit by bit remove some pressure off oil demand, coupled with people driving less like in europe or spending less on other goods or actual cars to offset the price of gas.
for example:
in canada gas is about $1 a litre.
say the average canadian uses about 50 liters a week (a large tank)
so they spend $50 per month on gas.
if gas goes up to $1.50 a litre (a %50 rise) that means they are spending $75 a week on gas, thats $100 extra per month of gas costs, about $1200 per year due to gas moving up %50 in price.
you can buy a $35,000 car and keep it for say 6 years, or buy a $29,000 car saving you $6000 in total. over 6 years youve saved $1000 a year in car costs by going with the cheaper option. $1000 a year is about $80 a month in savings.
youre spending $150 extra in gas while saving $80 in car costs.
in reality youre spending only $70 a month extra as a result of skyrocketing gas prices simply by buying a slightly cheaper car. (the DX model instead of the EX model for a honda accord say)
if $70 a month is enough to cripple the western economies and destroy suburbs, they would have long ago collapsed.
they arent simply because rising costs in one area arent fixed, they can be offset in other ways. im not even including drivign only %10 less to offset those costs or keeping your heating 1 degree colder in teh winter, and 1 degree warmer in summer which can really add up. never mind keeping cars just 1 year longer than the usual life spand of a car for the typical american.
suddenly a %50 spike in gas prices while difficult and no doubt a hit to economic acitivity is not the planet crushing scenario so many envision. gas prices are much higher than this in much of europe anyway, people adjust.
The VIX
Not much talk of the VIX. It has steadly crept down and is now at an extreme low. I dont see much upside available in light of this low reading.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11470278481
Cara 100 Update
COST - estimates lowered at Government Sachs through 2012. Gross margin is facing more difficult comparisons. Neutral rating and $61 price target.
DIS - The stock is higher ahead of the open after being upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, which takes its price target to $42 from $33. The broker notes that a falling unemployment rate will aid both its theme parks and consumer segments.
JOYG - estimate tweaked at Barclays. JOYG 2010 EPS estimate inched up to 3.10, 2011 maintained at $3.95. Maintain Overweight rating and $67 price target.
JOYG - estimates, target upped at Government Sachs. Shares of JOYG now seen reaching $64. Estimates also boosted, given higher equipment production. Neutral rating.
RCL - The stock gets a Neutral-from-Sell upgrade at Government Sachs.
TXN - price target higher at Thomas Weisel, to $32 from $30 on solid guidance. Maintain Overweight rating.
XLP
The Consumer Staples ETF just made a new 52 week high shortly after the opening.
Re: The VIX
Geoffrey - Look at the VIX relative to the past 20 years and it's actually high.
The rise in oil prices is predicated on
Economic recovery, shortage ? If Goldman is seeing 1020 prices from $ 80 - $ 90, then NOV and BHI are present good opportunities... Just like WFT, I imagine the shares will be pushed as low as possible....
Re: The VIX
What seems relative to me would be from Sept 08 until the present. The last 6 months displays an uncertanty that is a wind-up for a correction.
Re: The rise in oil prices is predicated on
!!! Blind !... sorry, 2010 prices... jezz... ANYWAY, ( I better reread the graphs ), the $ 43.10 - $ 43.40 area would be nice to see in NOV...
Bought some ORA on at 29.25
Bought some ORA on at 29.25 based on GS report low rsi on 7 day
UNG
Just hit a 52 week low. Does anybody here trade this ETF? I don't. Not since there was all that trouble with contango and the other issues.
Re: The VIX
Not sure I agree...we already had the correction. People expecting another one most likely missed buying at the bottom and are doing some wishful thinking.
GS
Sold at $162.00 that I bought yesterday at $158.5. I'm probably going to buy again on a retest of $160 should it happen.
This market sure trades ( since Jan., 2010 ) like when the Dow
was trying to clear the 9000 level..
Re: peak oil buggery
Dr. Cosa -
During that same period - when oil rose from $10 to $80, real wages in the US did not move at all. The stock market actually shrank in real terms. The dollar went down in value. I don't think this was coincidental. In real terms, not being able to produce its own energy caused the US's standard of living to actually decline, because excess energy is what drives standard of living. This is not a small thing, not if you are a citizen, or an investor.
The GS SUSTAIN report observes that declining natural resource availability mixed with population growth is a mega-trend that (if we are wise) should probably inform our long term buy & hold decision making processes. Specifically, that growth the way we're used to will not - and cannot - continue going forward. And that the equity market hasn't priced this in just yet.
I agree with them. I believe this trend will continue going forward. When oil production actually peaks and starts to decline, this trend will accelerate.
When viewed through the lens of history 50 years from now, the move will be apparent, but to us living through it in "day trader time", it is almost invisible -absent some oil price shock which I believe will appear if and when the economy starts growing again.
I do hear what you are saying. Instant, impending doom & gloom sells books, investment newsletters, and the like. But like the kid in the back seat on a trip, we keep asking, "are we there yet" every week or two, on a journey that will take 10 years.
No, we aren't there yet. But we're getting closer every day. And like rust, depletion never sleeps. And one day I believe we will wake up to another oil shortage, another price spike, and those who haven't been paying attention will be surprised, adjust, and move on with life, their standard of living down another notch.
Dr. Cosa, oil is up by a factor of 8 over 10 years, and total production hasn't peaked yet. I'm guessing the price will increase once it peaks. Then it will increase again when production actually starts declining. Then add to that exponential population growth - more people sharing a shrinking energy pie. People will cope, yes, they always do. But the impact is, their standard of living will decline, first slowly, as it has over the past 10 years, and then more rapidly as production declines start to hit.
You might consider buying that electric scooter and see how your life changes as a result. Going from 60 mph with a 250 mile range in a sports car to 25 mph with an 8 mile range on an electric scooter is - quite a change, take it from me. Now write that across our civilization and imagine what infrastructure has to change in response.
Ok, now you respond, and we'll call it a day. We don't want Cara Community turning into The Oil Drum, do we?
Re: UNG
Natural Gas is now at 4.567
Talk is we will see 4.40
Last week a huge tanker of LNG landed in Boston from Yemen (of all places).
Scalper's heaven
This must be a reward for patient labored trading for weeks... grind it out, keep your expectations small, stay patient - and then along comes TIVO, and rewards you for everything.
Re: Scalper's heaven
I am guessing it won't be soup and crackers tonight.... !!
GS - stockbroker
While one would need some management consultant types with the time to argue over the veracity or cogency of the intellectual arguments put forth in the report, it would not shock anyone here that the *stocks picks* of the esteemed house are borne of what's on the book, what the boat has been loaded with and where the play for the month is ...
Apologies for simplifying but ...
Dixy is a second-rate but top-5 dixy discount supermarket that will struggle against bigger, more talented and better-financed competitors in the long haul. Sector is attractive no doubt but why choose this dog? In Russia there is no such thing as a "take-over" premium - only "take-unders", so to speak, such as when a heavyweight murky strategic investors (clad in black only and that's no exaggeration) bought into this same company for example ...
With an average daily offical reported volume of $0.0 mn, this stock has likely been accumulated diligently in size and then marked up 20% as $8 offer becomes $10 offer with barely a trade in between .... puuhh-leeze.
http://www.rts.ru/ru/archive/securityresults.html?...
Re: Scalper's heaven
It's a good layer of caviar over the bread and butter :)
Re: peak oil buggery
ha true enough,
large cities are different from suburbs until they get big enough and dense enough taht traffic become prohibitive along with higher gas. hence the euro model.
people really think that high gas prices will bring down the US as opposed to ushering a change in transportation.
heres my prediction, gas will move back and forth in this range, mabey clip $100 in 12 months, the oil stocks will under perform and slowly very slowly peak oil will fall out of fashion. im continually amazed at how quick we are to distruct corporate entities yet will parrot their book when it suits our views. what an oil exec has to say about oil supplies dwindling is benefiting his company to make you think oil is scare and becoming so.
any over supply is met with the contention that longer term something will happen. yes eventually we will run out of oil, though only a century or so ago most people probally thought wed eventually run out of coal and the world would come to an end. who could have predicted the rise of crude oil.
yes its harder to get and more costly, but if thats the case,the technology to extract oil and gas allows us to explore the ocean when previously it was too expensive or difficult to do. so in effect its more costly to get oil fro offshore rigs than easy saudi oil pumps but it is much cheaper than it used to be. its reality. and oil prices arent exploding upwards in spite of this reality simply because the market nor insiders are convinced oil is in such short supply on a multi year time frame, we just have to shake this idea that oil will dwindle over the next few years or decades to the point where it really casues a disruption.
people can cite whatever data they like, at some point it must show up in the price, and right now, including options activity for 1 year out dont say this. i suspect it wont say it 1,2 or 3 years from now. and even worse if the market dumps so will oil. all while they keep finding more of it and come up with more efficient way to power our lives.
china's building cars now that will propell tehir economy, it means they will do things faster, including developing their own offshore activity that hasnt even scratched the surface. peak oil is an idea that has peaked and is in decline.
This is why I don't put too much stock in Technicals
Look at this guy's chart of GDX
http://slopeofhope.com/2010/03/gold-miners-short-s...
Attached is my rendition of this chart.
Boeing tanker announcement at 10am PT
Boeing just said it will make an announcement related to the Air Force's aerial refueling tanker request for proposals at 10 a.m., Pacific time, Thursday.
The announcement comes a week after the Air Force released its final tanker request and will be posted on UnitedStatesTanker.com
http://bit.ly/dlAaI3
Wonder if Rudy is working for Golden ?
check out ' Interrupting the President ' if you have the time... very, very funny... ( profanity )... ' Used Cars ' ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQiTRQTiMGY&feature...
SLW Earnings Straddle anyone?
I see a nice set up on the SLW $15 MAR PUT/CALL Options. Both are trading around .55/K and within a nickle of each other and the SLW shares are sitting right on the $15 fault line. I purchased an equal helping of each and will await this afternoon's news with interest. One of 'em should hit nicely off the news and the other may still play out given the time premium left on the contracts (just enough to squeeze some lemon juice out of). SLW is just a delight to trade/own/play options on. It is a source of much joy and profit for me. I actually think their earnings will be mildly disappointing (and then over-reacted to, as is usually the case).
Just a thought!! Happy trading all!
Re: Scalper's heaven
Something interesting that I came across while scanning for news on why Vad is eating carp eggs on toast tonight. A Zacks analyst a mere 22 hours before rated TIVO as "underpreform". Man that must be a great sector if a 50 % pop is underperforming! http://www.stockbloghub.com/2010/03/03/tivo-tivo-a...
By the way why did it pop 50%? A take over bid I assume. My news scanner sucks.
Bob
BTM
SOld at $21 that I bought at $20.90. Clearing the table for the jobs report.
Re: Scalper's heaven
There you go:
Thursday, March 04, 2010 11:11:15 AM
TiVo Inc US Appeals reaffirms lower court ruling in TIVO's favor against Echostar
- Appellants (collectively, EchoStar) appeal from the district courts decision finding them in contempt of the courts permanent injunction order. TiVo Inc. v. Dish Network Corp., 640 F. Supp. 2d 853 (E.D. Tex. 2009). Because we find that the district court did not abuse its discretion in imposing sanctions against EchoStar, we affirm the finding of contempt.
- Following the decision on the appeal, TiVo moved the district court to find EchoStar in contempt of the courts permanent injunction. After conducting a series of hearings on TiVos motion, the district court ruled that EchoStar was in contempt of its earlier order. The district court rejected EchoStars argument that it had redesigned its infringing products so that they were more than colorably different from the adjudged infringing devices.
- Defendants are hereby FURTHER ORDERED immediately to recall and retrieve from their distributors and retailers the Infringing Products that have not yet entered the stream of commerce or are still in the possession of Defendants distributors and retailers.
11:47 TIVO Comments on court win against EchoStar; paves way for $300M, will pursue damages and sanctions
12:29:30 PM
TiVo Inc Price Target raised to $27 from $13 at Lazard, maintains Buy rating (timing uncertain)
- Firm believes the appeals court decision is consistent with the upper end of our scenarios, which assume not only Dish damages and a lucrative new
Dish deal, but deals with other cable/telco service providers (Time Warner Cable, Verizon, and AT&T) and more optimistic outcomes for related TiVo businesses due to patent support (advertising, research services). Risks include disappointing new deals, surprising new legal setbacks.
Re: Scalper's heaven
So were you in the court room?
Bob
Re: The VIX
You just may be right. I do note though that the DOW closed at 10,433 on 11/24/2009 and is still trying to regain that ground three and one half months later....
Yucca Mountain
Hi All -- Efforts to accomplish the dictates of the 1982 Nuclear Waste Policy Act resulted in $10 billion of spending on a project now described as "not an option." The project came to an official halt yesterday when the Department of Energy filed a motion with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to withdraw the application to build and operate Yucca Mountain repository - something about water percolating down a million years from now or some such nonsense in the general area of some 900 mostly underground nuclear explosions. This action by the Obama thugs flies in the face of common sense. The place is a geologically sound decision and ready to accept waste with good paying jobs and benefits for all citizens, but Democratic “feel good” decisions without regard for costs and the need for the facility coupled with good old Dingy Harry Reid antics have saved the planet once again at the expense of the tax payers. Happy Trading
Toronto Airport rip-off
Never change money at the Toronto airport. The sign says No Fees. Ha.
With the US Dollar trading at C$1.0301 when I arrived, and needing a cab but only holding US Dollars, I exchanged $50. Transaction #3097-21-109104 Canada Dollar $46.87, Service Charge $0.00, Fee $2.95, Total $43.92. That’s 87.84% of the $50 and 85.11% of the market rate.
No big deal to me except that it’s a rip-off to the traveling public and makes Canada looks worse than your typical bankster.
Wish it weren’t true, but what were Canadians really worried about when I got here: Parliament is being asked to change the lyrics of O Canada because the line "true patriot love in all thy sons command" is sexist. Rather than debate the real issues of the day like the economy, the budget deficit, and complaints from tourists from Bahamas, politicians are going to spend their precious time considering changing the “offensive” O Canada line to “"O Canada Our home and native land! True patriot love thou dost in us command.”
Gimme a break!
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/arts/music/story/2010/03/03/o-ca...
My first trip back in a year and all I could think about while flying over the city and cabbing downtown were “So many people. So much time wasted getting from here to there.” I’m even thinking that Nassau is getting too big for me. :-) and that maybe I’ll move to the Exuma Cays.
GS
I opened a short position in GS at around a $163 average toward the close. RSI 7 is at 76 and it just broke out above $160 resistance and above 50 DMA at 160.3 and 200 DMA at 162. I am doing a trade based on an overbought condition with a potential backtest of the $160 area.
Additionally, I think a lot of traders are expecting the jobs number to result in a positive market. Their thinking is the negative number is built in because of the snow storms. Well, if it is better than expected I believe the worry about interest rate hikes will creep in. And if its worse than expected I think fears will creep back in about a double dip/slow growth.
EUR/USD
Speculators are profiting big from the weak european politics.
I was caught long on EUR/USD.
However there is too much in play for them to be successful.
The Euro will survive.
facebook warning-- sending worm links
Sorry to break into trading time I wanted members here who use Facebook for any reason to beware of hackers and emails from friends on Facebook. My Facebook account (among many others) was hacked 2 days ago and my members all received an email with a link to a site which sends back a worm called knobface, a trojan and other niceties. Since the email came from a Realtor I know, I considered the source 'safe'. It was anything but. I had been egged into using Facebook and Twitter as business tools for brand building. Major rethink on that!
My AVG antivirus has been unable to do more than catch it flashing past and put the 'bodies' in the virus vault as 'evidence' while I keep getting these annoying popups of porn and false alerts to try a new virus protection(!). The cost of this social media experiment is so far two days lost time and worry. I've been sending reports and diagnostics to the techs in India for two days. My own technician is now debugging the affected harddrive.
Change your Facebook password or delete your page. When I went back and logged in to delete my page, it activated another round of the same worm laden emails. I have emailed everyone warning them NOT to open an email from Facebook with my name on it.
A friend in the biz advised I get Trend Micro antivirus and ditch the one I have. Any success or experience with these out there? Thanks in advance.
Re: facebook warning-- sending worm links
Was having the same problem, try this new antivirus !! I had a system restore point and went back to it and the problem seemed to be solved, been about a month now. You can consider Kaspersky antivirus, inexpensive and works well with an added feature called virtual keyboard, prevents hackers from seeing passwords typed using keyboards.
Re: facebook warning-- sending worm links
Thanks tgifbipo,
My system would not allow me to restore after uploading new AVG updates....how clever of them? I'll check out Kaspersky. Thanks.
Re: facebook warning-- sending worm links
Had a worm/trojan infection a few weeks ago- the kind with the green screen of death and the pop-up "Your computer is infected!!" Only thing that removed it (after trying McAfee, Spybot, AdAware) was malwarebytes free product. Link below.
http://malwarebytes.org/
Good luck...
KC
RSI System: Sell Alert/Buy alerts
Is there a writeup somewhere on how the RSI 7d / 7w / 7month system indicates a buy alert/sell alert or accumulation/distribution? Thanks !
Re: facebook warning-- sending worm links
http://www.malwarebytes.org/
the fantasy bond
a great book im reading that is blowing my mind from Robert Firestone called "The Fantasy Bond"
"the neurotic and the artist tend to perceive the world similarly; their personal views of the world do not correspond to the cultural solutions that allay the anxieties of most people. in this sense the neurotic is an artist without talent." (page 275)
gold!!!!
GS Research Piece
I am on page 50. I do not read fast but my thumb is up.
More later...
Its a Bear market and people
Its a Bear market and people are going to lose money in the long run. Long or short your positions will be losing if you dont trade the right time frame. Most people dont have professional abilities or information. Caution is the order of the day.
Its a Bear market and people
Its a Bear market and people are going to lose money in the long run. Long or short your positions will be losing if you dont trade the right time frame. Most people dont have professional abilities or information. Caution is the order of the day.
Good interview with Bill Fleckenstein on ' King World News '
yesterday... give it a few seconds to load... http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/E...
Re: Good interview with Bill Fleckenstein on ' King World News '
One of the best gold and gold mining explanations I have ever heard.... wow
Re: Yucca Mountain
Luggie,
"The place is a geologically sound decision and ready to accept waste with good paying jobs and benefits for all citizens, but Democratic “feel good” decisions without regard for costs and the need for the facility coupled with good old Dingy Harry Reid antics have saved the planet once again at the expense of the tax payers"
What is the basis for your opinion?
The disposal of nuclear waste has been a problem for decades.
As being a NV resident for 31 years and following nuclear testing above ground, underground and gov efforts to store nuclear waste in my backyard, I have followed this for years and I support the Obama decision wholeheartedly.
PLEASE, Enlighten me why it should be put in my backyard and not yours?
Thank you,
vb
Re: Why I come here each day...
Grym,
I am not far from you in age, outlook and geography. You are hitting on a central question...what to do with what money you have, other than put it in money market or other eroding investments including CD's. Certainly Paul Farrell does not have an answer. His answer, cash, is a non-starter except for the short term.
I too am in mostly cash but always looking for an opportunity in stocks, whether on a macro or individual level. I don't like bond funds because they don't have a termination date, except for a couple term limited closed end muni bond funds I have owned. Therefore , you may never recoup your principal from most bond funds. They would only be attractive when really low in price when you can lock in a high yield for a long period or sell at a higher price.
Stocks of quality companies are what I like but the prices are not there now. The GS Report has given me confirmation on several companies to buy and hold, many already in the Cara 100. Others are less known names which I will now be following. Some are out of my reach unless I open another account with an international broker. PWR and ORA may already be in buying range. MR is a new name to me which got hit today.
Roger Nussbaum today posted his blog spot about Farrell's article at Seeking Alpha. Many interesting comments from readers are at the bottom of Roger's article.
seekingalpha.com/article/191700-paul-farrell-is-still-angry
Roger does have a point about foreign country ETF's and so does the GS Report with regard to many international stock picks.
Re: Toronto Airport rip-off
Bill,
Maybe we should pool our money and buy a small island in the Carribean. Call is Cara Land..
vb
Re: Yucca Mountain
Hi V.B. - The problem for decades has been solved by $10 Billion of our tax dollars, and I am a geologist with lots of years working in Nevada exploring and developing mineral deposits. Your backyard is America's backyard and besides I don't consider 80 miles away and the site of numerous projects that advanced the status of the U.S. as proprietary to recent arrivals in the funny town. Perhaps if you grew up in Hiko or Tonopah you may have the standing to consider tossing aside lots of my money, but those good folks want the work. Might want to consider USU - once reason prevails they will be provided government loan guarantees to enrich, monitor and most importantly to reprocess U3O8 at the Nevada Test Site aka Groom Lake/Area 51 and the aformentioned moutain. Happy Trading
Re: Yucca Mountain
VB and Luggie,
FWIW, I have a dear cousin who is a nuclear physicist involved with Yucca as a consultant. I grew up with him and we are the same age...as in pretty old. At one of our infrequent family gatherings just a few years ago, he made a remark about the repository. Something like he would be long dead before it would be a real problem. Did not inspire a lot of confidence in me about that project's long range future although I still have enormous respect for my cousin and his efforts to do a tough job that was given to him.
If WFT can hold and clear the
$ 16.60 area, it could quite posssibly retrace the $ 22 mark in short order... looking at the channels ( its flowed in ) for the past 4 months gives me goose-bumps.. of course, oil could tank, and take her back to $ 14 (and change), but I would welcome that also... That, there are so many coming opportunities, in this market ( which present themselves if you do not get lulled into complacency ), is what makes one pause to catch their breath so often.
SLW Q4 and 2009 Results Huge
Core highlights: 17.4 million equivalent ounce silver production in 2009 is up 46% from 2008; project 23.5 million equivalent ounce silver production in 2010 increasing 70.2% annualized by 2013; record Q4 and 2009 company production; $4.00, give or take a penny or two, production costs still in place; paid off $400m revolving credit, raised big cash, and made a Barrick mine production acquisition with a 62m share dilution ...
Recession? Depression? I don't think so.
Organized Greed
Government Sachs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SFywA_LQuU&feature...
Re: Yucca Mountain
Hi Luggie,
Funny you are a geologist, I sat in the natural hot springs in Markleville CA (Grover Hot Springs) today with a Geologist from Reno NV who told me he comes 3 times a week to get 'the cure'.
What safety guarantees can you provide the residents of Nevada that dumping this waste is okay?
There are numerous cancer incidents and birth defects here which are most likely do to water table contamination (FALLON NV).
PS. Are you a Resident of NV and if yes, what county?
P.S.S. Why did they stop underground Nuclear Testing at the NV Test site in Mercury NV in the early 1980's?
Thanks in advance,
vb
Re: Yucca Mountain
Illini,
We live in a world of theories and speculation. A major topic within our political system is a need to preserve things for our future generations.
FACT: There are numerous unexplained cancer deaths in Fallon NV near the Fallon Air Station. Throughout our state of NV there are Aquifers: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aquifer -- Read about The Amargosa Valley http://www.amargosavalley.com/
Our best minds have tried to figure out the cause of the deaths and birth defects in Fallon NV. The locals believe it is likely to be caused by a contaminated water table that might be possibly linked to the fallon naval air station (NAS).
We still rely on Nuclear Energy but I don't want the Nuclear Waste Dumped here.
Do you want it?
NO ONE WANTS IT IN THEIR BACKYARD.
Period.
Wind, solar, are better Alternative Choices and we have known this for Decades.
Talk to the Fat Cats in Wash why nothing has been done
Regards,
vb
Re: facebook warning-- sending worm links
Thanks Knifecatcher and others! I managed to Restore my system to an old setting and Clean the Disc to give my bot the boot...but I'll try this as a precaution to be sure I am spanking clean. I umderstand running more than one Antivirus can cause conflicts. Do you use malwarebyes with any other program? Thank goodness my data was not compromised. I have an offsite server with major firewalls.
Am I The ONLY One Left with This Opinion HERE...??
For some time I have been reading news/opinions and sharing links about real world facts that is predicting lots of dire and unrest in all of the financial markets coming in this year due to many reasons all of you heard of before specially starting from countries defaulting in Euroland as Greece is ONLY the first here. However, FEDS and their Bankesters boyfriends, the likes of GS and JPM, have managed to keep this fake market rally up with just a hiccup of 9% after almost 70% of market run-up since March 9 using their manipulative computers and trading tools. As many here said, like NYGrad, they made all TA analysis just a big JOKE and frankly just BS !!
I really don't see this market returning ever to a free traded market free of Gov't Control and Bankesters's manipulations. Traders face a very difficult task here as many of their well known trading tools or techniques are no longer working. Many have encountered huge losses in last 2 yrs. It even makes it impossible for many to be swing traders, short or even long-term traders as there is no truth and valid market conditions and company facts that investors could truly trust and believe in its fundamentals. The PPT team will always be working at full force to change the direction of investors expectation and change the price action move in a matter of minutes or less on any single day or night (futures market).
I do believe in GOLD surviving being the ultimate currency in a world full of debt and default, budget deficits everywhere, and collapse of many currencies. I am sure the more turmoil we see in the world going higher and higher in debt, the less world currencies would worth and the higher Gold prices would reach. HOWEVER, no one has assured investors who want to protect their cash or saving that investing in golfd miners or gold equities is as good as investing in physical gold simply because historically we have seen over many decades that Gold stocks have sold off sharply when equities market sold off sharp during corrections or market turmoils. Therefore, many would say well why not buy physical gold then and hide it somewhere in a bank's safe but should we really because if that bank collapses and closes their doors, you will never be able to get out your gold bars from them. Does that mean you need to hide them in your home? your basement? your garden? where?? forgive me for being too cynical here but frankly what options do the honest investors (not just day traders) have left to protect their hard earnings money and life savings in this terrible terrible corrupted market?? If they can’t stay in CASH since the currency is gradually being devalued then how could they invest and protect their earnings?
People have lost confidence in this market and I am one of them and want to be shown the WAY to protect themselves and their families.
I would truly appreciate if Bill and others can comment on my few points here and provide their thoughts of where do they think the solution lies here?
Thanks and GLTA
Re: facebook warning-- sending worm links
I have used this site for years to remotely clean computers. The service cleans you for free but ongoing protection costs. ScotTrade provides clients a free McAfee license for three computers. Here is the link http://housecall.trendmicro.com/
Goldman Sucks..a Video of many FACTS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SFywA_LQuU&feature...
Re: facebook warning-- sending worm links
Loannetter, sorry to hear of your troubles. About three weeks ago I had a similar problem but not from facebook. I had to do a complete re-install and now my computer is running fine and fast.
My friend Wes a computer tech told me to download and install Microsoft Security Essentials and to get rid of all other programs like AVG. Just Google for the download. This program has only been out about 4 months. Good Luck.
Re: Am I The ONLY One Left with This Opinion HERE...??
ALOHA !!
I sympathize ... I think there are a lot of people in America who cannot quite keep up with their parents and grandparents lifestyle. All the usual symptoms are there like two wage earners instead of just one.
We all have to live with the cards we are dealt and do the best we can even in the dark shadows of manipulated markets and corrupt government and failed monetary policy.
I can see how people like Vad can survive, scalping profits in short term set ups. I can also see how people can survive playing trends whether it be longer term monetary trends or just shorter term trends like the BKX. There are always profitable trades out there, but the days of shooting fish in a barrel like the dotcoms and the tech and real estate days are gone. Bubbles are just that ... they inflate and then they deflate. Now you have to find arbitrage where you can and it is not that easy, especially if you have to work 9-5 or more.
TA aside and debating aside ... My basic theme has always been to cover the basics first. First "downsize" and pay down your debt and pay it all off. I have yet to meet anyone who could not "downsize" and still be just as happy. The happiest people I know have no debt! Then get income flows, like dividends. Use some of the quality companies who have a long track record of paying dividends under the most harshest economic conditions. I suggest companies like XOM and CVX, but there are others and the CARA 100 has quite a few. While the banks lowered their dividends since 2007 CVX and XOM did not and in fact raised them. That is not to say they are 100% safe but they have a very long and stable track record. Plus who here does not use their products every day? Who here uses Goldman Sachs products every day?
The problem is, as I have always said, is the monetary system. We are all forced to "leverage" our earnings in order to maintain a lifestyle remotely similar to our parents. In order to "retire" in the bosom of the American Dream you can no longer do that just on 9-5 earnings, unless you are Oprah or Peyton Manning or Jamie Dimon.
None of us can compete with a "free money machine" and the debt monster at the US Treasury! I guarantee the US FED and its member banks knows that intimately.
Now add this to the list. As you become more successful in your dividends and trading look how you are rewarded by the government for all your long hours and your blood, sweat and tears.
LINK: http://tinyurl.com/yg67zsw
Look at what close to half(46.9%) of all Americans contribute fiscally. Now the US Congress and the US Treasury is working diligently on the other half. It is obvious that those of us who work 9-5 have no chance to compete with the US Congress, US Treasury and the US Fed who have 25/8 366 to spend thinking up new ways to ponzi us out of what accumulated wealth we do have. You can only change that by quitting the practice of voting for the lesser evil.
Yep, there are quite a few very large hurdles in our paths to financial "security", no doubt, but I like challenges.
Goldman (sucks) Sachs
Check out this youtube video on the company
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SFywA_LQuU&feature...
Re: Why I come here each day...
Illini,
"I am not too interested in Farrell's conclusions but there is utility in some of things he looked at to come to his conclusion."
Same here.
I was about 80% cash, but have recently returned most of it to Vanguard's GNMA (VFIIX) which pays around 3%. (There is a 60 day wait to return to any of their funds.) If the 10 year heads up toward 4% again I will dump. Some Zero Coupons too.
I've been using foreign market ETFs too (EUO now), but believe the currencies are also being manipulated between various central bankers in a sort of Musical Chairs fashion — mouse clicks are a devious thing.
Whatever we choose I believe it is important to keep our eyes on the ball and not become complacent with anything.
After over 30 years of very simple, long term swing trades, this is a new strategy for me and I've made a few mistakes, but have so far been able to avoid any huge ones like so many of my buy and hold friends who still trust the system.
Hang in there ;-)
----------------
BTW, Mish has an interesting update on the CPI today/. I first became aware of the CPI Owner Equivalent Rent skewing from Shadow Stats. I am somewhat convinced deflation in major areas (housing, autos, wages) will continue while others (food, health care and TAXES) will rise significantly.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Re: peak oil buggery
It is not 'buggery'. Oil is a finite resource. That is what geologists and scientists tell us. Some oil is hard to extract or, as in the Canada oil sand operation, extraction is expensive and causes huge environmental damage, use of water, destruction of land, and large additions of carbon into the air. There will be oil shortages at some point in the future- it is guaranteed unless alternatives can be developed and take hold in the market. How might that be done? Start by requiring the user to pay the true costs associated with the use of fossil fuels now, as opposed to passing those costs to our kids. Currently, fossil fuels are subsidized by society. We know that the use of these fuels damages human health and the environment (we don't have breathable air in many areas right now) and yet we do not factor these costs into the price paid by the user. This distorts the market and puts fossil fuels at an advantage to cleaner alternatives. The question is, does society want a largess today while handing the massive bill to our kids? Sadly, the answer is yes. As a result of our selfish and reckless choices, future generations will inherit an unstable climate, polluted air and waterways and an unsustainable energy system.
Re: Am I The ONLY One Left with This Opinion HERE...??
analyst65,
"...forgive me for being too cynical here..."
I don't think we can be too cynical — mere skepticism is not enough to counter the massive campaign make us feel good or at least "less bad".
I am holding real gold, trading their ETFs, but with no clear trend am in a mostly defensive stance.
(See my comment to Illini below #58561.)