Morning Call [6:03am ET] Tit for tat. You say QE, I say QE.
So says the Bank of Japan (BOJ).
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2010/10/28/business/global/business-us-ja...
Got gold?
Judging from the weight of the mailbox this morning, the gold and silver companies and newsletter writers are in full dress rehearsal. The number of reps is impressive.
Can’t you sense the moment, a new beginning? There is momentum building here. Getting ready for the show.
It’s not that gold has been quiet; it’s been on a tear since 2002, all of it during a period of broad scale disinflation, a time that favors paper assets. The problem with the holders of paper, however, is that there is simply too much of it around, too many paper hangers feeling the need for action, many of them working for central banks.
So, as we say in the business; it’s time to get physical. Gold, silver, oil, and other commodities are in the wings, ready for the curtain to rise, the show to begin.
As good as most of you agree it’s been for the miners – some even talk about bubbles – I say don’t worry about a little froth, there is no sign of a giant bubble yet. Even Credit Suisse yesterday reiterated their belief that we’d soon be looking at $1500 gold.
Four weeks ago, when the gold price was hitting a new all-time high at about $1320, I spoke about momentum being strong enough to take the metal to about $1430/oz before pulling back. It almost happened, topping out at $1380-$1390, depending on whether it was cash or futures prices.
A pull-back to just shy of $1320 since the peak was hit has been, in my opinion, merely a consolidating move as traders get use to the higher range, and I believe we are about to see new highs, trading somewhere between $1390 and $1440 in the near term. Before the present intermediate-term price cycle has peaked, possibly 1Q2011, I think the magic $1500 number will print.
Will gold be a giant bubble at that point? I don’t think so. But there will be times it gets over-bought and profit-taking will come into play.
Long term, perhaps 2014, I think the new magic number will be $2500, a number I mentioned to attendees of the Cara Bahamas 2009 Conference, nineteen months ago, back when the price was $920. Would that represent a bubble? Possibly. The state of macro-economics at the time will be the determining factor.
Amazingly, the majority of the world has no understanding of the economics of money, whether it be the physical or paper. To them, gold is an object, something for the rich. I say that in time, all the people of the world will come to realize it is the only money worth holding onto during periods of inflation or deflation, when global capital markets, particularly currencies, are unstable.
Today is a travel day, so I’m getting an early start.
Here is the futures picture at 6am ET. Dollar is down, and equity, crude oil and precious metals futures up. Tit for tat.
Have a good day.
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Good evening. Patrick here. [9:50pm ET]
Although the US Dollar (DXY-1.05%) was in freefall once again, equity Bulls were unable to carry out a sustained upside campaign signaling the recent strong correlation between stock gains and dollar weakness is beginning to wane. In their desperate attempt to raise asset prices the Treasury Department has favored a dollar devaluation policy; at the end of the day the only thing rising might be the cost of living.
Over the past few months, currency price fluctuation has been the driving force for all inter-market money flows; if you were not closely monitoring the currency market, volatility in the equity, precious metals, and fixed income markets often appeared random or out of the blue. If this relationship is finally breaking down it may signal the hyperactive reactionary trading algorithms dominating daily trading patterns could be replaced by macro-driven long-term strategies, capital being invested rather than traded.
Precious metals markets (SLV+1.57%; GLD+1.34%) were rocking to the upside today with investors dumping dollars and reinvesting the proceeds into an asset class that will preserve wealth during times of elevated price inflation. Gold miners (GDX+3.61%) were particularly strong, aided by strong earnings reports from Goldcorp (GG+5.25%), Agnico Eagle (AEM+6.27%), and Barrick Corp (ABX+3.61%).
Over the past 15 days on a closing basis the S&P has barely budged; markets remain dormant ahead of the big events of the following week – midterm elections, Fed QE announcement, and the US unemployment report. The popular averages are stuck in mud, the only action occurring in individual names being driven by earnings reports and M&A activity.
There are only so many ways to say the market is in a holding pattern until the middle of next week.
Be patient – this too shall pass.
Have a great evening.
Comments
Collin Twiggs Latest - Gold/Silver Prices
Here's Collin's comments. I'm leaving the PM ETFs. Don't trust the managers. Headed to physical/miners for the long term.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/tradi...
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
POMO Injection Scheduled For Today
8:30 - Initial(minus 21000/Continuing Claims(minus 122,000)
Cara 100 Earnings:
BC - (-.08 vs -.32)
CELG (.75 vs .71)
DOW (.54 vs .41)
POT (1.32 vs 1.16)
XOM (1.44 vs 1.39)
After the close: FSLR, MSFT
------
CHRW - Downgraded to Sell @ Stifel Nicolaus.
GG - Upgraded to Buy @ Stifel Nicolaus. Target $53
RIMM - Downgraded to Perform @ Oppenheimer.
SCHW - Charles Schwab downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James.
TTM - Tata Motors downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
UTX - PT Lifted from $80 to $83 @ Oppenheimer. Outperform
----
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." -- Albert Einstein
REDF
REDF: year over year revenue growth of 46% for online advertising. Nothing else matters. Stock is cheap. Also, on the conference call they mentioned that they are developing a search advertising platform in house that will be launched in a couple of quarters.
Jobs are picking up...Bears are gonna get crushed...skeptics will miss out on a further rally.
The Real Cost of Living
via Casey Research:
http://tinyurl.com/CPINONSENSE
Re: REDF
TOF - "Jobs are picking up...Bears are gonna get crushed...skeptics will miss out on a further rally"
Please tell me why silver, gold, the euro, and oil are rallying harder than the US equity market, if this move up is all about jobs, and earnings recovery?
I suspect you will ignore this question this time, as you've ignored it in the past, because you have no satisfactory answer.
Re: REDF
Dave - Aren't silver and oil driven in part by consumption?
Gold: You know my stance on gold. It's driven up in large part by people who don't know how to value it and sold by the media and large holders of gold as a way to combat their fears. If people can explain how to fundamentally value the price of gold (other than their opinion on how "we're spending into oblivion") please share it with me. I can do this with stocks/the market as a whole so I'd rather stick with what I know/can value.
US Dollar vs Equity prices: Again, this is a short term phenomena. Check back further than the past few years and you will see that there is little correlation between the dollar and equity prices. Bears/skeptics like yourself like to point to recent price action and its correlation to the market as the only reason for the markets movements. Or they cherry pick a point in time when the dollar has moved substantially down while hte market has moved substantially up and say it's all because of a falling dollar. This is a mistake and quite frankly it is naive. I can do the same thing to prove my own point...i.e., what has the dollar done in the past year? It's gone up slightly. What have the markets done? They're up 6% or so. What has the dollar done since the Feb lows? It has gone down slightly. What has the market done? It has gone up significantly.
'This is Romeo Foxtrot. Shall we dance?'
Roll the tape. It need not be Ride of the Valkries.
This is NOT good!
"A Paralyzed Fed Defers Decision On Monetary Policy To Primary Dealers In An Act That Can Only Be Classified As Treason"
[Excerpt]
It also means that the Fed has absolutely no confidence in its actions, and, more importantly, no confidence in how its actions will be perceived by the market which is why it is not only telegraphing its decision to the bankers, but is having its decision be dictated by them, an act so unconstitutional it would be seen as treason in any non-Banana republic! This is the last straw confirming that the only ones left trading the market are the Fed and the PDs, passing hot potatoes to each other, and the HFTs, churning the shit out of everything else to pretend someone is still trading.
And the saddest conclusion is that this is the definitive end of US capital markets: not only is the Fed's political subordination a moot point, but the Fed, and the middle class' purchasing power via the imminent dollar destruction that is sure to follow as the PDs seek to obliterate their underwater assets by raging inflation, is now effectively confirmed to be a bitch of Lloyd Blankfein and his posse.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/paralyzed-fed-def...
Is U Tube trying to block Freedom?
These guys say as much:
http://dailypaul.com/node/147774
While you may not personally agree with or smoke, they have a right to say it. Remember prohibition of Alcohol? How did that work out? Was that fair for those who could responsibly choose to say no?
This is the video that was blocked with censorship:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFN125H21mo
"a few billion to homeowners"
loannetter - "And we are crying about a few billion to home owners in the form of mortgage interest tax deductions"
Your definition of "few" and mine are quite different. I calculate that deduction being worth perhaps 200 billion per year, going mostly to the upper middle class. Its been around for - how many years now? Let's say the value has been the same in constant dollars. Let's multiply the 200 billion over the last 30 years. How much was that again?
Oh right. SIX TRILLION DOLLARS - in 2010 dollars, of course. From renters and lower middle class, to the upper middle class homeowners.
But really, I don't blame the homeowners. They were conned - at best they broke even. Its the NAR, NAHB, and the bankers that really cleaned up. Renters, of course, were screwed. Public policy at its best.
Opening AA/BAC/CSCO/INTC @ 12.77/11.65/23.25//20.26
...
Cara 100 Update
PG - PT Lifted from $66 to $67 @ RBC. Sector Perform
PG - PT Lifted from $66 to $72 @ Caris. Average
Adding V @ 77.95
...
Re: "a few billion to homeowners"
Thought this fit well with your comments Dave... hope it isnt a re-post:
The Six Trillion Dollar Problem
Greg Hunter and crew
http://tinyurl.com/2dv443c
Things are picking up behind the scenes and we dont have long before life gets more interesting. Bailing wire and duct tape utilized to hold pieces of the US corporation together were engineered to work through election day. All bets are off shortly thereafter.
More from the grapevine:
28 days into the fiscal year and no budget formed for the US corporation yet from congress.
Napolitano telling her friends to stock 6 mos food and water ...NOW.
US Treasury special agent "Two weeks from now money will not be permitted to be transferred out of the US."
And another hero speaks out. Astronaut Dr. Story Musgrave on ETs;
Famed NASA Astronaut confirms Extraterrestrials are here
http://tinyurl.com/24ndwf
Happy Trading.
Re: REDF
Excellent, thanks for the response, makes sense. Let me summarize then:
* oil & silver - move based on expected consumption (more or less)
* gold - people who like gold are just plain crazy, God only knows why they do anything
* the buck - ok sure, there's a linkage, but its only recent
* equities - it's earnings, baby, earnings. besides, I understand how to price them.
The fact that gold and silver are moving in lock step belies the "silver consumption" thesis. That just doesn't hold up. Of course you could call folks buying silver crazy too, I suppose. God knows why they do what they do.
My thesis is, expected money printing is almost entirely responsible for this rally - in gold, oil, silver, and equities. Its also responsible for the move down in the buck. The close linkage between the buck and these four items is my evidence of this. I agree, its a more recent phenomenon. Money printing hasn't been around for very long - the past few years. And after last year, folks thought the recovery was going to happen, and so the threat from money printing faded into the background. Now, it's back front and center, so the linkage is extremely strong.
Folks expecting near term debasement run and hide in things that protect them from that debasement. When prices move in lock-step, that is my evidence that this concern is what is driving prices, as opposed to some disparate series of other explanations.
All four of these prices represent stuff that has value that cannot be "printed away" - equities included, since they presumably are companies with plant property and equipment which is real stuff - stuff that will provide protection from the expected debasement. Likewise, earnings from overseas revenues will help, since money will be repatriated at advantageous exchange rates.
But don't confuse this rally with "economic recovery" - because it is just not happening.
There is a bifurcation though - the upper 10% have definitely recovered, and they account for 33% of consumer spending. Perhaps that's the kind of area you live in, so that's what you are seeing?
Re: REDF
"Jobs are picking up"....
Initial Claims and continuing claims were both revised higher for last week. Now it's about 40 revisions up and two down. Each week the numbers are made to seem better then they are, when the information doesn't matter anymore, they correct it, and it always goes up-except for twice out of about 42 revisions. So today's beat, can be expected to be a miss by next week.
Re: REDF
Interesting story on REDF. However, it's dropping like a stone today. Why?
bought AAPL near $306
I noticed last night how $CPCE spiked in the last several days. Also AAPL charts look similar to that of end of March 10. Despite my short term bearish sentiment, I'm thinking there might be another push up before markets rollover like in April 10, especially since dollar is faltering.
Edit: now it feels like catching knife trade. I'm well within the stop, but still, I should have waited for better entry point.
Re: REDF
Dave - part of the reason I tend not to respond to your posts is because of the tone of your posts...this one is a perfect example. It's hard to have a conversation with someone that belittles the intelligence of someone else.
Re: REDF
Jack - There has been significant profit taking from a huge run up from $2 to $6. Volume on the selloff has been light. I think people that sell now will be regretting it a year, 2 years, 3 years from now.
bought some UNG calls on a drop
small position only. This might be a higher low I was waiting for and the MACD is just about to cross over (it did cross over on $NATGAS).
Re: 'This is Romeo Foxtrot. Shall we dance?'/ Heavy return fire
Damn.
Re: bought some UNG calls on a drop
Jack - A year ago I was tempted to buy UNG but man that just looks like one busted ETF. I like the idea of Nat Gas as a long term investment despite all its excess supply.
Re: 'This is Romeo Foxtrot. Shall we dance?'/ Heavy return fire
This is some whipsaw action, 2nd. If we should take anything from the past 2 weeks its that we should be selling any pops and buying any drops.
Re: REDF
Thanks for the straightforward feedback TOF, if you care to spend the energy, send me the phrasing where you felt I belittled your intelligence and suggestions on how I might rephrase and I'll work on using that in the future, either here or by email.
POMO
pop anytime now
Re: bought some UNG calls on a drop
This is a short term trade via options on UNG. So far so good.
Re: REDF
Thanks for the straightforward feedback TOF, if you care to spend the energy, send me the phrasing where you felt I belittled your intelligence and suggestions on how I might rephrase and I'll work on using that in the future, either here or by email.
I am saying that this blog is very biased:
At least he doesn't remove your input to the blog. Could he do that? No, but someone just removed mine that addressed an important issue.
Re: 'This is Romeo Foxtrot. Shall we dance?'/ Heavy return fire
That's one reason I'm focusing on battered stocks for buys.
Day trading dead?
Interesting article.
http://tinyurl.com/2dclvqs
Don't really agree the author has "proved" anything, but he makes some interesting observations and arguments.
Maybe day-trading is broken and that's why my results are so lousy? :)
Re: REDF
TOF,
Jobs are not picking up in the Midwest, nor in the US generally.
Where are you getting this idea? As compared to what?
Missing post
Comments removed.... any direction to this policy on the board would be appreciated. I seem to have tripped the censorwire and would like to know why and what not to do in the future....
Thanks
Re: Day trading dead?
invariate- I for one am certainly tired of day trading. The nice thing about the market right now is an abundance of beaten-up blue chips available at decent prices. Were I to turn off the PC right now leave the room and walk away into the sunset(holding current positions in OAKBX + AA/BAC/CSCO/INTC/V), I could probably boot up again in a year to nice gains.
I might even do that.
Re: REDF
Your comments, like my own, are still under the comments tab of our respective account pages. This is the first I've seen this done on this board.
Comments appreciated.
RBY
They are giving it away again! I am thinking the trend is my friend on this one too. That head and shoulders is looking ripe for consolidation at a lower high.
I have made so much on this short, its not fair. Is anyone else short here?
also:
RBY is not UXG. RBY, while peripheral assays are encouraging, reliable infrastructure is not a done deal and some of the permitting is less than optimal.
additionally:
While is may not be popular to go against this outfit...maybe I am paranoid...would not be the first time! It is confusing to me that the guy who didn't have controlling interest would sell it. You know come to think of it the market does not make it easy.
ad hoc:
I can't say the same about slv, slw, $silver or other leaders in the metals though.
fragile
bungled foreclosures could set back the nation’s fragile economic recovery. “If investors lose confidence in the ability of banks to document their ownership of mortgages, the financial industry could suffer staggering losses,”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/28/business/28housi...
careful will robinson...........
Re: Day trading dead?
I've pretty much given up trading. Just trying to stay informed.
Hope you're right about seeing nice gains a year from now, but I'm not convinced enough to bet any money on it.
My "investment" plan right now is purely defensive. Wait for a decent bounce in the buck (and correlated pull-back in PMs, commodities, a few select foreign currencies, maybe a handful of large caps with heavy foreign exposure), then all-in. Take whatever shorter term loss might result, but sleep better knowing that in 10 years (or less) I won't be holding a bunch of U.S. monopoly money
FTSE chart
http://bit.ly/bIdtoe
trendline broken. looks very similar to the last divergence.
Re: Day trading dead?
Yeah, I already laughed about this article yesterday. Amazes me why people feel qualified to write of things they know so little about. I should seriously think of writing about ballet.
GG - full points
Full points to the poster who suggested yesterday that GG earnings report was likely to lead to a happy result. After seeing the doji print and gold's apparent possible second bounce off 1315(ish) support I picked up some GG calls. Too chicken to buy the underlying, but thanks.
Re: Day trading dead?
The author seems to be reminscing about some time in the not so distant past that day trading was easy and everyone was eating filet mignon dinners every night and putting their kids through college with their day trading skills.
We all know that was never the case.
Truth is, most people who day trade jump in head first and pay an insurmountable tuition upfront and never want to wade back in ever again. Same as it ever was.
Re: FTSE chart
That's a nice chart NYU. Double top, if it holds. Seems like a low risk short entry.
Might SPX's MACD rollover right now might indicate a failed retest of 1220? That might be stretching a point, the FTSE chart looks more definitive.
TOCOM
How another exchange handles HB&B and hedgies shenanigans:
http://www.tocom.or.jp/guide/kansi.html
Re: REDF
Hey Grym - Well, I guess I'm referring to the jobless claims which have clearly trended down in the past several weeks. Private jobs have been growing modestly all year at around 50k to 100k. I think the improved jobless claims will translate into 100k+ jobs growth.
Re: Day trading dead?
Billy,
absolutely true, and one more thing I feel I must add. For some reason this profession is thought of as not requiring any education. No one in their right mind thinks of taking a pilot seat in 747 to try whether he can fly it; nor do I see anyone walking in OR, grabbing scalpel and trying to perform surgery. In trading however I see all the time the weirdest claim: it can't be done and I have a proof - I tried it and it didn't work. Well, I just tried to play piano... guess what... it's a pure myth that anyone could play it successfully.
Re: Day trading dead?
great analogy Vad.
REIT outperformance at an end?
IYR has been outperforming SPY since the March 09 lows. From the IYR:SPY weekly chart, I notice we've had an MACD rollover, and a slight descent since Mid august. The daily chart shows this more dramatically.
IYR is trading right now at pre-crash levels. Part of the rally was due to the "end of the world" trade evaporating (they can now access financing so death isn't imminent) and they were one of the few ways to get income in the ZIRP environment. Certainly bonds weren't providing much, so traders chased yield in utilities and REITs.
With the turn down in the bond market, REITs have started to underperform. It's not a major move yet, but this is the first sign I've seen that says IYR is possibly vulnerable to a correction. I suppose its another way to play "short treasuries" with a nice "default threat" kicker if we have more banking/credit issues.
Maybe long SPY short IYR?
No position, but thinking about it.
Posted, what I thought, was a really good discussion on India
and China, and their competition with each other, last night... Rather long, but I think, worth the time... http://www.onpointradio.org/2010/10/kaplan-monsoon...
Re: REDF
TOF,
OK, I understand why we are in disagreement.
What you are going by ignores millions no longer looking due to lack of availability.
Also, 50k to 100k is far short of the number of new applicants entering the workforce.
Re: REIT outperformance at an end?
If what you believe turns out to be true...well, on second thought, could anything possibly revive SRS, which has performed miserably, both before and after, it's reverse split almost a year ago...
Red close today would be a first...
i believe 1st pomo day to close below the open.
Watching 1175 on the ES. if it holds support i am guessing we reverse up hard to close green.
no position.
Edit: that was a quick break of 1175. not a bad entry to short ES.
No position. just paper trading
Re: GG - full points
Davy, I posted this Wed, 10/27/2010 - 18:42 #72940 when it came across the wire.
GG - http://tinyurl.com/2em48pq
GOLDCORP EARNINGS INCREASE AND DIVIDEND DOUBLES ON RECORD OPERATING CASH FLOW
If this doesn't light a fire under the miners...
J
Regarding day trading, I am tired of it too and began switching to position trading with better results and less stress.
J
Re: REDF
I made a comment about freedom of speech this morning and it was removed from the general blog very quickly; it regarded u tube and the state/federal power play and how it was influencing not only our elections but also the fact that the federal reserve is not accountable. The comment I made did not in anyway effect the rights of other bloggers.
Re: REIT outperformance at an end?
goldbug58 -
I think maybe I would stay away from SRS, unless you are simply looking for more power on a day trade. Perhaps take the hint from all those reverse splits?
If I want to short, I think I'd just directly short IYR. Only problem is, you have to pay the dividend, which is not cheap at 3.5%. What to do in the IRAs, I'm not sure. Maybe just don't play, or just use the 1x ETFs like SH.
Re: fragile
...."bungled foreclosures could set back the nation’s fragile economic recovery. “If investors lose confidence in the ability of banks to document their ownership of mortgages, the financial industry could suffer staggering losses,”....
I'm confused by the whole foreclosure issue. Sometimes I think that banks are simply looking the other way because they don't want to deal with additional properties while waiting for some kind of a government bailout. As I mentioned earlier I have a neighbor that walked away from their mortgage at the end of last year and then bought a repo under a family member's name for much less than they paid for their original property. I ran into the neighbor's daughter the other day and she stated that the bank (or whoever owns the mortgage) has yet to initiate any foreclosure action even though they notified their lender that they had moved out. All I know is that I had to mow the grass all last summer so that the place at least looked presentable. I just don't think the housing financing issues are going to be resolved anytime soon. It may take a generation or two for housing in America to truly recover.
Re: GG - full points
Good call, I was considering reentering my GDX position in the last couple of days. This might be a good point (was better yesterday though). Or I may be even better tomorrow, if dollar jerks up again.
A scary scenario: What if a U.S. state defaults?
It’s the year 2013. A large U.S. state can’t come up with the cash to make a bond payment. A default would ricochet through markets worldwide. What happens next?
That’s the scenario that a high-powered panel, including Former Treasury secretary Robert Rubin, gathered to address this week at a conference in New York. For seasoned observers, the chance that a state would default on its debt ranges from remote to impossible. Yet the fact that the risk is being openly discussed shows the depth of the worries over the finances of states and cities.
Which states are most vulnerable? Surprisingly, not California, but Illinois, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Nevada, and Connecticut.
If the conference in New York this week is any guide, more radical measures could emerge one day. The panel simulated a near-default in 2013 by “New Jefferson,” a fictional U.S. state, though more than one participant slipped and called it “California” during the discussion.
Pretending to be the U.S. president’s advisers, they agreed to help the state make an imminent bond payment, but only in exchange for strict conditions. One idea they floated: an oversight authority that would effectively take fiscal decisions out of the state’s hands.
Full article/graphics
http://tinyurl.com/2dl6rez
Re: REDF
I found your post and examined it after having mine pulled. This is a new phenomena in my experience on this blog. To me, this is very disconcerting. Maybe not so much to anyone else based on the response to my requests for quidance and comments.
“This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.” T.S. Eliot
My last post on this blog?... Probably.
Re: REDF
yes, they are dome dark sides of this blog. People here don't like to talk about it.
On the other hand maybe this was a technical glitch? Lets wait for Bill's explanation.
Re: A scary scenario: What if a U.S. state defaults?
This is why everyone should have core PM portfolio. Dollar and bonds would go up in smoke in that scenario, I think.
UNG is forming a symetrical trangle today
we should know soon which way the breakout goes. Anyone taking bets?
Re: GG - full points
Jack,
PM and the miners are doing well today. But I posted yesterday that I expect gold to be weak for awhile, just my guess. I am just holding what I have, since I am trying to cut back on day trading. Unless the market implodes I am with Bill and others here that have positive expectations for PM and the miners.
I am expecting the mkt bottoms and turns up yet today. No trades yet.
J
FXY
FXY might be turning down. The 5 day chart looks like two explosions - Monday and today.
FD - Short FXY.
J
Re: A scary scenario: What if a U.S. state defaults?
jack -
Why do you think a state default would hurt the dollar? Bankruptcies and defaults are inherently deflationary (money gets destroyed) which means remaining dollars are more valuable.
I'm talking about having paper FRNs in hand here. If we have a 30s replay, where bankruptcies and defaults reign supreme, money vanishes, gets much harder for the general public to find, banks vanish right along with depositor cash, money markets seize up - actual cash in hand becomes extremely valuable. All those debts remain denominated in dollars, all the bank deposits vanishing...those with money find purchasing power greatly increased.
Fed response to such a scenario would make for some pretty intense volatility.
My understanding is, in a deflationary crash, physical cash money is your best bet.
Re: REDF
Okay - I've looked at both your post and GForces. I don't think they were pulled for being offensive, but I think as Bill said the other day, "Minds are wandering, something anyone can see with a two-minute review of the recent ramblings on this board.". It is difficult to keep a site like this focussed, but to be perfectly honest if people routinely post conspiracy theories about New World Orders, extraterrestrials, false comments like "Napolitano telling her friends to stock 6 mos food and water ... NOW" - fitting of tabloids like the Weekly World News, then the site does lose credibility. I'm guilty of getting too engaged in political debate, but that is not the focus of the board. There's room for humor, but lets keep focussed on the markets and keep it real.
Re: A scary scenario: What if a U.S. state defaults?
I'm not sure, but my reasoning is Euro action when Greece had problems with bonds. Also, I assume Fed would respond with printing in high gear. I'm guessing though.
However a relevant question is who holds those muni bonds. Retail, banks, or governments?
Re: REIT outperformance at an end?
Dave - this is probably a simplistic view of things, but I think REITs will perform well as long as the housing market stays down and jobs don't come back. However, if you think, like I do, that jobs will be coming back and that housing prices will rise modestly then REITs will probably underform for a little while before moving in line with the market. The reason I think this is because the rental markets are doing very well relative to the new homes/used homes sales market. With jobs growth comes more income which means more people able to buy homes.
Grym - part of my optimism on jobs comes from anecdotal things I have seen/heard that I've posted about before: conversations I've had with people in the tech and headhunter businesses and also in the significant rebound I have seen in small business work I have gotten in my retail furniture businesses. As I've mentioned before, job losses far exceeded the drop off in GDP as compared to recessions since 1900. I think this will ultimately revert back to the mean and jobs growth will be greater than people are expecting over the next year or two.
Re: A scary scenario: What if a U.S. state defaults?
Dave M
What the state of California is doing now with JP Morgan and HBB brethren can go on for awhile to satisfy their debt service:
http://tinyurl.com/28nucl5
If muni debt is the next shoe to drop, our federal government might be relieved
to know that HBB is first in line to lend.
Re: REDF
I looked at the video. I thought it was great.
Criminalize the user and enrich the drug cartel.
S&L Crisis versus today
During the S&L crisis many of the culprits were jailed after due process of the law.
How many bankers today have been jailed? nada!!!
They have totally sr----ed our country, our country.
Re: REIT outperformance at an end?
RE: "I think this will ultimately revert back to the mean"
I agree with the above, but in a different sense. I mean rich countries will become poorer and poor countries will become richer. US companies outsourced too many job. They could come back in the end but dollar has to fall a lot for that.
Re: A scary scenario: What if a U.S. state defaults?
"One idea they floated: an oversight authority that would effectively take fiscal decisions out of the state’s hands."
How do you suppose that would be accomplished? What would that say regarding state power and sovereignty?
Rare Earth
http://tinyurl.com/23q8ocq
China Is Said to Resume Shipping Rare Earth Minerals
I expected this and didn't buy any of the RE miners. We still need our own domestic supply. Perhaps the RE equity prices will fall back to a point where they are worth the risk of holding.
J
Picked up some FAS while it was destroyed today.
Maybe another falling knife, but Rydex traders have one of the lowest exposure to banking in several years. Usually a sign of a bottom or a sizable bounce. Over and out, have to work.
Re: REDF
My track record is documented in this blog. I came here years ago to begin the process of establishing this track record because I knew then that we would be entering/confronting a time when people would need and deserve sane, credible, reliable perspective. I relate what I am able so that everyone here will have at least been exposed to the possibility that their world is not what they have been told. So that when something occurs to upset or disrupt their perception of reality, they have solid alternative information with which to process this disruption. I have also independently contacted Bill with information and direction as to what was/is coming. He will verify this. He can also verify independently the accuracy of the items I have pointed out. Some of these things have come to pass, and some have yet to pass. I related these things to Bill for the same reasons I have just listed... to establish my credibility and to offer perspective in preparation for a seemingly uncertain future. I have done these things unilaterally. I am not compensated. I do them because I care about humanity and our future. This is all that I have to offer this community. And I would bet that this has proven to be of value to some of you in the past. For others of you who have no use or time for me, there is the ignore button.
It is time to wake up people. This is all very real. And it will become increasingly "real" in the very near future. Get ready. Perhaps you may understand the essential nature of what I have been doing here in retrospect. Perhaps not.
If you dont remember anything else that I have tried to do here, please remember that I was the one who related that the world is far more wonderful than most of us dare to imagine. When the true history and nature of the human being is finally and forcibly disclosed to mankind, when we all dare to imagine our full potential, I hope you will remember my comments.
Sincerely.
Unpublishing
Please see the Community Rules posted under the Site Index. Recent "unpublishing" incidents are in respect of those rules. The use of foul language, the promotion of other forums, and the promotion of personal causes and beliefs are all covered there. Your comments are welcome. Thank you.
Sargent Pepper (un) does FINANCE
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/alan-greenspa...
Can you find all the infamous financial celebs ?
Re: Unpublishing
Jack, like "ENDING THE FED"? ;-)
Hedging
Bought some SPY Nov 22 $119 SPY Puts at $2.58 to hedge my longs.
Re: REDF
MtnGntx - I don't put anyone on ignore - I find the scroll button works well enough if I don't want to read a post.
Re: Sargent Pepper (un) does FINANCE
A handful of these people should be taken to the Lincoln Memorial and?
Well,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1kxb1FC3Vg
Any thoughts on WRPT?
Re: REDF
MtnGntx -
"My track record is documented in this blog. I came here years ago to begin the process ..."
Yawn.
Greece spreads back up to 10% over Bunds
FWIW Heads up: File under doesn't matter until it does.
James Kostohryz
01:27:14 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Does Anybody Remember Greece?
Don’t know if anyone cares yet, but….
The spread between Greek Bonds and Bunds is back above 10%.
FYI, 2010 GDP is expected to contract by -4.0%. Meanwhile analysts have already started to tweak down their estimates for 2011 GDP growth from -3.5% towards -4.0%. It is pretty hard to see how Greece will be able to meet revenue targets in such circumstances. And it is pretty hard to see how they are going to be able to convince the Europeans to expand and extend their bailout if they don’t meet their targets.
Remember those days when just about everybody was saying that a Greek default would set off a Euro-area crisis?
Everybody’s out of the office on a QE induced séance right now, so they can’t be bothered.
But does anyone doubt that those cynical days will likely be here again?
©2008 Minyanville Publishing & Multimedia LLC, All Rights Reserved.
SOMX - baz/tobyt
Hey guys, came across this beaten down bio/pharma play SOMX. They have an USDA approved pill for insomnia, Silenor, which they are expecting to generate some substantial revenues from in 2011. Market cap just over $100m and $55m cash on the books. Seems pretty low risk although headlines are touting generic competition.
Opened a small position in SOMX at $2.91. Will be doing some more DD tonight so keeping position tiny until I can get a closer look....
Also, still riding the SVNT train. Got lucky and shed about 40% of the position at $13.06 this morning which I subsequently bought back the lot at $12.62.
who gets stuck with the bill?
That would be - Halliburton.
National Oil Spill Commission investigators have found that the Halliburton cement used to seal the bottom of BP's wild Gulf well in April was unstable and was used despite multiple failed tests in the weeks leading up to the massive well blowout.
The findings from investigator Fred Bartlit Jr. and his team could be among the most significant to date as several investigations try to establish clear causes for the disaster, which killed 11 rig workers and fouled the Gulf with nearly 5 million barrels of oil.
http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/...
Ouch. That's gotta hurt. HAL off -3.4 (-10%).
Re: REDF
TOF,
Everyone sees things first through their own experiences. I think Dave is feeling frustrated as am I by what we see in our own parts of the country...AND by the deliberate misinformation and spin (we used to call it lying) from government sources, Wall St., rating agencies, and of course the Fed and Treasury.
For decades I was able to read annual reports and other date with a pretty strong belief the data were within reason. Not so anymore.
For every positive sounding report a negative one seems equally valid.
For this reason I am relying more on anecdotal reports from friends and relatives around the country. With the foreign reports I have no real idea, but am at least as skeptical as with US.
My Soc. Sec. will again not increase, but Medicare will. Both based on the lack of or increase in inflation. (Some can have it both ways.)
From the White House or the Congress we get crap like unread legislation a nd promises we can insure from cradle to grave when we know 65 and up was unfunded before.
The currency juggling act is just too fast, too often too wild and too much for me.
Re: REDF
TOF,
Everyone sees things first through their own experiences. I think Dave is feeling frustrated as am I by what we see in our own parts of the country...AND by the deliberate misinformation and spin (we used to call it lying) from government sources, Wall St., rating agencies, and of course the Fed and Treasury.
For decades I was able to read annual reports and other date with a pretty strong belief the data were within reason. Not so anymore.
For every positive sounding report a negative one seems equally valid.
For this reason I am relying more on anecdotal reports from friends and relatives around the country. With the foreign reports I have no real idea, but am at least as skeptical as with US.
My Soc. Sec. will again not increase, but Medicare will. Both based on the lack of or increase in inflation. (Some can have it both ways.)
From the White House or the Congress we get crap like unread legislation a nd promises we can insure from cradle to grave when we know 65 and up was unfunded before.
The currency juggling act is just too fast, too often too wild and too much for me.
Re: REDF
TOF,
Everyone sees things first through their own experiences. I think Dave is feeling frustrated as am I by what we see in our own parts of the country...AND by the deliberate misinformation and spin (we used to call it lying) from government sources, Wall St., rating agencies, and of course the Fed and Treasury.
For decades I was able to read annual reports and other date with a pretty strong belief the data were within reason. Not so anymore.
For every positive sounding report a negative one seems equally valid.
For this reason I am relying more on anecdotal reports from friends and relatives around the country. With the foreign reports I have no real idea, but am at least as skeptical as with US.
My Soc. Sec. will again not increase, but Medicare cost will. Both based on the lack of or increase in inflation. (Some can have it both ways.)
From the White House or the Congress we get crap like unread legislation a nd promises we can insure from cradle to grave when we know 65 and up was unfunded before.
The currency juggling act is just too fast, too often too wild and too much for me.
HUH?
No idea why the triple posting.
Caution?
Today has been a series of lower highs...this is the 3rd time in the past 6 trading sessions where opening gaps up have been sold off and tells me we may need to be a little more cautious here in the short term. Maybe we are due for a little pullback before moving to the 1,250 level, which is what I think will happen within the next 6 months.
Re: Rare Earth
or is it because 'REMX' the new etf which started trading today has scared the living day lights out of china that suddenly there's going to be abundant supply because of it.
SOMX #73050
BillyS.....watch out or one of these days you'll have to join bio anynomous......just did a quick look at yhoo finance and they have a one-year tgt of $11 on SOMX, will look at it more closely later also.......baz22's ASTM is truly turning into a moonshot, TPC, saut and several others who have tended to be most correct on the market in the last year are acting very timid here so am taking it slow.......most have not been this cautious since late april, obviously next tues/wed will tell the tale.........great trading..... remember "its not so much the return on my capital I worry about but the return of....."
Re: REDF
Current rally about Jobs? We loose jobs every week, Right?......currency destruction is the only senario that all the peices fit into.....???
Re: SOMX - baz/tobyt
Whatever happened to Sepracor (SEPR), didn't they make that Lunesta insomnia pill?
Re: Red close today would be a first...
Looks like trend is still leaning toward green pomo days.
UXG
UXG made a nice little hop at 2pm, which brought it even with GLD. Just eye-balling it on a 2 year chart it appears to have a lower beta than either GLD or GDX. Also, it seems to holdup better when GLD corrects.
FD: Long UXG.
Sold my BBY today, that was my 2nd profitable trade on what I believe is a solid stock and would be holding it, except I have been fortunate so far to sell at a profit and buy back in at a lower price, which I will do again.
J
Bob Farrell's 10 timeless rules for investors
I've condensed but full article link attached:
1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time.
2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.
3. There are no new eras, so excesses are never permanent.
4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.
6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.
7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names.
8. Bear markets have three stages - sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend.
9. When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen.
10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.
http://tinyurl.com/2748jr2
Re: SOMX - baz/tobyt
Goldbug,
Sepracor had a name change and is now Sunovion.
J
fed money printing estimates
So based on this article, and the growing level of resistance around the world (Bill's article this morning RE BOJ, comments by the German finance minister, and the whole raft of comments from China regarding irresponsibility), I'm going to guess money printing will not be 4 Trillion as requested by Goldman, or even 1 Trillion.
The survey in this article had 4 different choices: nothing, 250B, 500B, or 1T. I'm going to pick 500B, spread over a 6 month period.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-28/fed-asks-...
"The Federal Reserve asked bond dealers and investors for projections of central bank asset purchases over the next six months, along with the likely effect on yields, as it seeks to gauge the possible impact of new efforts to spur growth.
The Fed asked dealers to estimate changes in nominal and real 10-year Treasury yields “if the purchases were announced and completed over a six-month period.” The amounts dealers can choose from are zero, $250 billion, $500 billion and $1 trillion."
Translation:
"We haven't a clue what we're doing, so we're asking you guys to all throw darts at a dartboard. We'll average the results, and go with that, because we really don't have any better ideas."
Need help on options, please
I currently have 2011 & 2012 calls that are already in the money (when I first bought them they were not) and am becoming increasingly convinced that they will end up way in the money (belief in the core story of the underlying stock).
It seems to me that deep in the money calls become far less liquid over time. I am concerned about being too complacement in merely holding these calls ala a long stock position, based on the false premise that I will be able to liquidate them for full value at any point right up to the expirationd date (what if there are no buyers/no liquidity?).
Please tell me if this is an incorrect belief or recommend books for advanced options strategies that would address this issue, if that is more appropriate. I don't want to be complacement in holding these positions, but I don't want to roll 'em up or down needlessly if my inherent premise is wrong (liquidity is not an issue, market maker will happily take deep in the money calls off your hands for fair value at any time).
Thanks in advance to a great learning forum!!!
HAL
Hi All - Had to cut this pup loose today after nice gains since a June entry. Looks like Halliburton's cement may to the culprit of BP's spill. Hard to believe BP was not fully aware of testing of the cement concoction used in the plug though. Will be looking for re-entry once the dust settles. Happy Trading
Re: S&L Crisis versus today
Some experts think we will not have a full recovery until the financial system is reformed (real reform).
Bank execs have appeared before congress, some testimony was obviously false.
But no consequences to date. Holder has not acted, litigation due to the mortgage fraud is expanding. i wonder if state AG's will file charges. thks telestar.
Re: fed money printing estimates
I was just getting ready to post this reference to the Bloomberg article.
What a piece of propaganda in reference to the relationship between the Fed and Treasury.
"The Treasury also doesn’t want to give any impression to investors, particularly those based overseas, that it might be coordinating with the Fed to finance the national debt.
“Treasury debt-management decisions are designed to deliver the lowest cost of borrowing over time and are entirely independent from monetary-policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve,” Mary Miller, assistant secretary for financial markets, said in an e-mail to Bloomberg News yesterday. Before joining the Treasury last year, Miller was head of global fixed- income portfolio management at T. Rowe Price Group Inc. in Baltimore."
Regarding the dart board decision making method, I think they have a chimpanze which they bring into the meeting room to throw the darts.
Re: Need help on options, please
Nebish - It really depends what your options are on (which stock or ETF) and the liquidity of that product. Generally speaking the more liquid a product is, the more liquid the options will be (bid/asks will be tighter). If volume starts dying down, generally the bid/ask will widen (and vice versa)
You might want to take a look at the available bid/ask spreads for deep-in-the-money options on the specific stock or ETF you are referring to in order to get an indication.
miners today
Bill thanks for your analysis on gold stock earnings several days back, when you said they would be red hot based on gold at this price level. Miners today are taking off like scalded cats, up 5 and 6% on big volume. Gold itself, up +21, closing near the high.
I wonder if HB&B figured this out too, and blew gold down fifty bucks so they could pick up the miners at a nice discount? Nah, they wouldn't do that, would they?
Re: S&L Crisis versus today
Here is what some are saying could be in the cards; if it wasn't so close to an election and if Bill was able to take an active role again perhaps the sheeple could change back into people that that long time blogger on here remarked about today:
"If you dont remember anything else that I have tried to do here, please remember that I was the one who related that the world is far more wonderful than most of us dare to imagine. When the true history and nature of the human being is finally and forcibly disclosed to mankind, when we all dare to imagine our full potential, I hope you will remember my comments."
The article that comes to us from the halls of power sort of:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/we-can-either-hav...
Re: UNG is forming a symetrical trangle today
It broke out UP and I took my profit (I don't want to brag about %, but $5 call is the only Nov in money call).
This may be a great short term trading tool.
Re: Need help on options, please
options are funny when you look at volumes and they appear like they are dry with no activity whatsoever, but on closer observation, there is a market maker providing liquidity and always accommodating volume if you accept their buy/sell prices.
There are options where sometimes, I'm the only buyer/seller in a day or several days, but the MM is always there if I want to buy/sell at the buy/sell prices.
The key is to find options with minimal buy/sell spreads and minimal time premium.
Looks like you did good with your out of money options. I almost always lost with out of money options, but was more successful with in the money options with stops in place.
Re: S&L Crisis versus today
at this hour, on the neil ratigan show, ohio attorney general is speaking out about problems with wells fargo and their mortgage transactions. ehhh ooo.
Potential reversals - NYSE and TSX
When looking for signs of reversals on an index, I find a simple 4/9 EMA crossover can give a good buy or sell signal, but usually look for further confirmation for a day or two to see if the trend stays intact, by triggering a 7/15 EMA crossover. Today the TSX had a crossover (EMA 4 below EMA 9), and they almost touch on the NYSE. On Balance Volume on the NYSE is pathetic.
http://tinyurl.com/32pyvmh
Re: Need help on options, please
You can always exercise your ITM options and sell right away.
I'd personally take the profit and run, and if you really like the stock, take a smaller position with the profits.
Need help on options, please
Thanks so much all! I'll take a look at the existing bid/ask on Deep ITM calls and circle back with any irregularities (and give examples so its easier to discuss). I'm just worried that the MM will not necessarily pay FV if there are so few bidders. The lack of liquidity on a deep ITM call can end creating a low bid as the time period continuously erodes.
I would need a lot of cash to exercise the options and then cash them out, so that would be OK for a small position (say 20K's or 2,000 shares), but not a larger option position like 100K's or 100,000 shares).
Much appreciated!!
Re: "a few billion to homeowners"
davefairtex,
"Renters, of course, were screwed. Public policy at its best."
So the question hangs in the air: How can renters get ahead and make something of their hard earned? After all they have to live somewhere.
With 95-100% financing still possible at under 5% terms how can home ownership not be a benefit? I priced a $200K loan today = a payment of $988.00 PI, fully amortized over 30 years. That same home would cost $1,200 per month in rent or as we fondly refer to it: 'dead money'. That renter's landlord on the other hand, some middle class investor, is going to pocket his $200+ per month AND have the home building equity while the renter pays for his investment. The landlord gets to write off his mortgage interest as an expense! That same renter, with an income of $3,000 per month could afford to buy that home! (Or toss his money at the landlord).
While you are trading HB&B please remember: they made millions of fraudulent loans annually rolled into fraudulent securities. These fraudulent loans and securities made the senior officers (and corrupted officials that rated these frauds) rich beyond belief and all this was blessed by our Fed and GSE's.
I guess I see $2.5 TRILLION from the Fed to Banks the real icing on the crime cake. These same banks are foreclosing like mad while cashing in their FDIC and AIG loss share agreements and mortage insurance and making out like bandits. Why are we still paying them to do screw us? I ask you? WHY?????
http://www.youtube.com/user/fiercefreeleancer
My only consolation as a mortgage professional is helping people dance with the devil with awareness of how to stay safe.
Re: "a few billion to homeowners"
loannetter -
First, I agree completely with your characterizations of HB&B, crimes, and so on.
I believe we can agree that the mortgage interest deduction increases the amount of interest that gets paid to HB&B, which is THE reason they fight ever so hard to keep that deduction intact. Based on your outrage, you should be supporting my suggestion that we get rid of this deduction, both to help out your buyers obtain better prices, as well as starving HB&B of perhaps half of their skim.
As for the particulars of rent vs. own, it all depends on the deal. You describe a particular deal. You tell me this deal has a net cash flow savings of $200 per month vs renting, and let's say we get our popular tax deduction to give us another $200/month. $400/month. You're leaving out the usual truckload of additional expense of owning a home. It probably comes to break-even at the end of the day, even if we don't count the 6% skim when you sell.
So is it a slam dunk? Not if you think we have more downside to come. But if you are dead-set on owning, its definitely a better deal than you would have received during the bubble years for sure.
PMI
Special warrants for $7.5 million thru Cdn firms. I'd like to know purpose. How these funds will be used...fund IPO? Ramping up exploration? Is this a good sign? I think so. Money coming into this venture.
Re: who gets stuck with the bill?
Grym - if they had put some Elmer's glue in the cement this probably wouldn't have happened!
Re: who gets stuck with the bill?
Dave M,
Riiiigght! LOL :-)
Re: PMI Gold - below market entry for institutions
I like PMI Gold, and own it. But I have mixed feelings about financings that let institutions in below the public market price. This current warrant offering doesn't even specify the pricing. No way for us long-suffering shareholders even to know how "cruelly" we are being diluted!
Macquarie Bank now ownns 19% of the company, and got in way under market price. I'm sure they promised the company future financings and visibility no one else could offer. They may be right. And PMI DID need to get its financing act together.
If PMI becomes a really big success -- I have no doubt that CEO Douglas MacQuarrie REALLY knows Ghana and has assembled and effectively explored 800+ sq kms of prime land -- then all will be forgiven as sufficient benefits flow to make us all happy.
After all, Macquarie Bank and the new Aussie Directors are coming in -- and floating shares in Australia -- because they expect this level of success.
Re: Rare Earth - timing, size of market
Guess how big the global market for rare earth elements is. A leading expert told me it doesn't surpass US$1.5 billion. This rather startling fact is almost NEVER mentioned in the REE hype!
And as the notion that because of the new ETF "suddenly there is going to be abundant supply", this would drive prices through the floor. But, not to worry, China can cut prices (as they've often done before, or merely threaten to do so) in order to queer the financing market for explorers, developers and producers.
Until a major user (Toyota? the Pentagon?) commits to long-term, guaranteed-price purchases, how can new entrants finance and develop their minerals? BTW, this isn't such an easy solution either, since the particular REE's required change as technology changes.
Meantime, China deals with REE's strategically, and the West seems to do so -- as far as I can tell -- just with hype, stock promotion, and now posturing by pundits and politicians ....
Re: Rare Earth - timing, size of market
$1.5B of global RE trade seems incredibly small to me. I am not doubting your source.
For example, from Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_bullion_market
"...Although the physical market for gold and silver is distributed globally, most wholesale OTC trades are cleared through London. The average daily volume of gold and silver cleared at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) in November 2008 was 18.3 million ounces (worth $13.9 billion) and 107.6 million ounces (worth $1.1 billion) respectively. This means that an amount equal to the annual gold mine production was cleared at the LBMA every 4.4 days, and to the annual silver production every 6.2 days.[1]. The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee claims that clearing data substantially understates the true amount of gold traded, due to the netting of trades in the calculation of Clearing Statistics. They claim that actual turnover may be four times greater than clearing turnover[2]."
Compared to derivative trading, RE and PM trading is a gnat on the wall.
J
Re: SOMX - baz/tobyt
Hi, Billy... ' somx ' reminds me of ' akrx ' which my trading partner and I were buying in Sept. & Oct. 09' ( sold wayyy to early )... ' somx ' could have a possible buyout around $ 5.00 ( from what I can gather ) .. lots of competition in their area.... keep an eye on ' avii ' during the next 6 weeks... best to ya'.
Re: REDF....MtnGntx---
"This is a new phenomena in my experience on this blog. To me, this is very disconcerting."
Before you blast off into the "Ether" would you mind explaining what injured you so soulfully?
Re: A scary scenario: What if a U.S. state defaults?
"What would that say regarding state power and sovereignty?"
First, remember Federal Law trumps State Law. Next, remember that the U.S. Treasury is the sugar daddy ....... until it all does not work.
Come on people now...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4fWN6VvgKQ
Wow. Finally checking in to review the days blog. What a day. Please watch the clip above and everyone just relax. Let's not censor MtnGntx- I enjoy his posts. And TOF - your optimism, intuition and excellent track record has saved me some $$$ from my natural paranoid pessimism. davefairtex I enjoy your posts and insights too along with grym, 2nd, loannetter, jackblack, SiO2, Kaimu. and many others I haven't mentioned and also the folks that only post once in a while. Hell you guys are an important part of my day.
Plea to be nice and also keep the blog censorship to a minimum.
FD: I even miss sharkie.
KC
Re: A scary scenario: What if a U.S. state defaults?
States won't default. Get over it already. As to a Federal takeover of state's rights, there are no rights left to argue about.
States suckle on the tits of the Great Washington Sow. States are slave dependents that get their milk cut off if they don't do their master's bidding.
Federal money controls the states. It has been this way for over 70 years.
Buy a history book!!!
Re: Rare Earth - timing, size of market
I enjoyed your comment. Obviously there is a 'pushing' between the 'king of the north'[the communist bloc], and the 'king of the south'[the dual world power of Great Britain-and the United States].
Later.
Re: Come on people now...
Agreed
We Are One Team
best
vb
Sentiment
In reading comments on posts like this one:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/232668-case-shille...
I can't help but think that people are way too pessimistic. I know it's simplistic to think this way, but everything I read sounds just like this and it makes me want to be more bullish. I'm currently only about 70% long and have about 5% in TZA/SPY puts but I just get the feeling that if the markets do turn down I need to move back to 100% long. I don't know of too many people that are 100% long this market. Everyone is skeptical and expecting a drop. That tells me it ain't happening.
Re: Sentiment
TOF - With homes prices, the demographic shift that was discussed here a few days ago is a factor too - 65,000,000 Gen-Xer's following 80,000,000 baby boomers. Another thing I read the other day is Gen-Xers don't share the same values as their parents about living in suburbs, in big McMansions with long commutes - they want more housing options in city centers, so I think there will be more demand for condos and lofts in downtown areas, more transit, less reliance on cars, etc. There is a huge paradigm shift underway. Boomers may debate whether global warming is real or not, the younger generation believes it is for real and will make their housing and transportation choices accordingly.
Re: Come on people now...
I enjoy MtnGntx posts as well, in fact I thought of him when I saw this....
The Stealth Coup D'Etat: U.S.A. 2008-2010 (October 28, 2010) at
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct10/stealth-coup10...
I HEARD THE CHURCH BELLS RINGING!!!!
What a Wonderful day it was indeed! Let US continue to have hope for peace and praises to the Lord! So that we may be blessed with more days like it. He is telling you what you need to hear, even if you don't want to hear it. No "Ether" needed. Let this debate be a lesson to us all to not judge each other. We have no idea what burdens others may willingly suffer. I am as guilty as anyone in doing this but I openly ask for forgiveness, understanding, and patience therefore I receive them.
Imagine a world where we are all the same and realize you don't want it. You would foolishly be giving up your ability to understand others and receive blessings from it. What Bill did in the blog yesterday is between him and God. Now he knows how loved he is and that I needed him and he was there for me. Not because he wanted attention but because I asked him to. I'm sure you will hear his testimony when he is ready and the Lord is willing.
Let our lessons be a Lesson to you! We are all students of the Darkside of OZ and WE OOOOOOONNNNN!!!! Do not judge your Dogs of war but be thankful they are on your side. Be mindful of what your actions would have them do, IF the order is given. Then it will be too late and you will have as much choice as US.
This message is not about war, not about bad news, unless you interpret it that way. I promise this is not my intention. My intention is to attempt to shine light into darkness so that we may move forward together with hopes of not continuing to stumble nor fall so hard again. Please see that you are doing me more of a favor by open mindedly reading this than I to you. I tremble. You have a choice to see if you do not already but I gave mine up foolishly with good intentions. That is between me and God. I will follow His orders resolutely until He releases me without fear of your judgment. It is not by my own will but the Lord's why I just keep coming back.
First off, Mr. President, I Apologize for calling you out. Now I know you were waiting along with me and not I waiting on you. Please Forgive me and know that I'm moving along smartly!
As far as gold is concerned. I did not say it was evil to own gold. Use your own mind to determine how much better the yellow metal is than Silver. Don't quibble about its price with others too much, it's part of the plan but not the solution. If you have one ounce today and you keep it, you will have one ounce tomorrow and that is your choice. All I'm saying is, be mindful of your intentions and if you feel Guilty, you should. If you do not than you have nothing to fear and I should not bother you. Are you using it to remind or do you have a white knuckled grip on it? Why so defensive instead of Open? Come Clean!
So what's it going to be? fight, flea, or Listen? God is asking. The choice is an individual one and we is bigger than i. I am great because of God and The United States of America, not the latter. We can answer the prayers of so many ourselves and trust to be forgiven by God if we are sincere. Everything that truly matters is between you and God. I beg of you to end the sufferings from our loss in trust and understanding with one another or God will.
If you say drop dead. I say gladly and I'll do it for you. You're only cheating yourself by not experiencing the joy of selflessness. You are just as much a piece of this puzzle as I or him or her. Admit you fall short as the faithful have and openly admit it as the faithful do and God will smile upon your understanding and provide for you.
Now let us use the Backspacer and continue to remember the PASSED and what was given. Do not take Jesus' sacrifice for granted! How horrible it would be for it to be in vein. Do not listen to the fool that does not care. Let us use our abilities to do good and not tarnish. Have a Coke if you please and enjoy life freely and without fear and persecution, if you would not force those on others. See honor in persistence and dedication, you will see wisdom. You see I know it's not about me but it's a common belief that is shared by many. It's what the Lord wants.... not needs.
For you who would refute what I say, I say read the Bible and may you find its pages refreshing. I don't expect everyone who reads this to believe me but if one does that is enough for my efforts. Seek the truth and only the truth and you will find it. You are fighting a pointless fight if you fail to accept the truth. The Lord is the truth and He has already seen ALL of this. I plead to you, do not make us remember more and more, anymore. It brings us to our knees. We know up to this point but we're at your mercy for the future and have no more doubt in you than we do in ourselves. We know how difficult it is without faith. The Truth shall set you free! To throw the ring or not. That is the question! Is it worth it to you? It looked so easy on the couch..... and it is with faith.
Continue to test God if you must, but do so at your own peril. See that even His sheep have the tenacity to do his will no matter the cost. Bahhh all you want but know this is no joking matter. Stand warned and feel cornered if you're not sure if He is smiling upon you directly. Time is running out as the LION's roars are getting louder and louder each day. Feel your heart beating like a hammer and know it was created that way and you graciously may still have the time to repent. Don't take any time for granted for it was given and will be taken away if deemed necessary. Tighten up and come clean. Your eternity depends on those hours and minutes. Be glad in the opportunity to spend them well and not selfishly.
Regardless if you hear me or not, one day we will all be judged by our Creator. This I promise. The clock paused yesterday if only briefly. Don't assume you know how many ticks are left. Your pride shall be the determining factor. Head my warning and listen to what is being told to you more and more blatantly in music. Too many prayers are being sent up and not enough being answered by our own sacrifices and His patience is growing thin. So what'll it be? Will you do whatever it takes to make amends willingly while you still have the chance or continue to be fools? If you sell short, do you do it humbly and with a burden or anxiously and with greed? What will you choose?
Blessings to all!
Written HUMBLY in LOVE
Seeing is Believing?
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2010/10/exit-stage-3.html
About fifty percent of the NYSE stocks are still above the 10 period average...but it feels tired to me.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQD4YXhxa6g&feature...!
A "desperate gamble" through "unimagined incompetence".
Unpublished blog items
The insecurity and/or arrogance of some of the people here needs to be addressed once again. If you don't want to be here, leave. Yesterday was my travel day. I told you that. I did not read the blog beyond the first couple comments. The system has filters that hold certain items for my approval. There are a couple others who have authority to make the approval, but I suppose they were busy as well, and about eight items were left on the system unpublished. When I opened the system this morning -- yes, I got in at 7pm yesterday, but was determined not to review anything until this morning -- I automatically approved all these items. If there were no filters in place, this board would be overrun with spam in a couple days. But, through my dedication and expense, this board has been a success.
Re: A scary scenario: What if a U.S. state defaults?
Illini,
"First, remember Federal Law trumps State Law. Next, remember that the U.S. Treasury is the sugar daddy ....... until it all does not work."
Not supposed to be that way, but we've seen it happen so often we seem to have forgotten States Rights.
Currently this is being fought in Arizona regarding the illegal immigrant law they passed. They have said they will fight it through the entire court system and it may reach the Supreme Court.
Re: Sentiment
TOF, I'm glad to hear your business is doing well, but often I see among your comments words like, "feeling" and can't help offering some experience-based thoughts that are triggered.
"I can't help but think that people are way too pessimistic. I know it's simplistic to think this way, but everything I read sounds just like this and it makes me want to be more bullish."
Sometimes a contrary approach works fine — sometimes it doesn't. I'd suggest we all need to avoid choosing from two alternatives, optimism or pessimism and go for realism as much as possible.
While not a day trader (well, hardly ever) I like to read all the views here because it helps me to understand better what I see happening short term.
I totally agree with Dave's evaluation, "There is a huge paradigm shift underway." I think we've only begun to see the result.
It began as early as the 1970s, but I didn't begin to realize it until a decade later — "globalization". Even then I didn't have any concept of how fast it would change life for everyone.
Our government, our financial concepts, our whole western lifestyle are out of date. While all else travels in real time our processes are stuck in 19th and 20th century mode. Textbook economics are out of date and probably the academics (Bernanke) will be the last to realize it (at our expense).
Looking to past examples of depression or recession may be a fatal mistake. Debating when we will "get back to normal" is pursuing the wrong question. Our interconnectedness is a whole new ball game.
My advice to you (and to myself as well) Get as much info as you can, but don't fall in love with any theories or historical models. My view is for deflation to be the first problem and I have been heavily into gov't bonds, but I must not become complacent. A favorite quote I try to remember in all things is, "It ain't what you know that gets you. It's what you know that just ain't true." Mark Twain
Re: Unpublished blog items
Bill, You are absolutely doing the right thing. Thanks.