Skip to Content

Bill Cara’s Blog for Sept 2, 2010 [See post-close report]

Morning Call [6:58am ET] My trading firm's letter to clients in August was headlined: "Gold may glitter in an environment of rotating sovereign crises". We'll discuss this today as the gold market could be close to the point of lift-off.

Yesterday’s gold monitor:

blog_sep_2.1.gif

What this end of day picture shows me is that Big Money yesterday took the Goldminer index (GDX -1.4%) down on account of losses in heavyweight Barrick Gold (ABX -3.1%) and near heavyweight Iamgold (IAG -3.0%). The peer group did not come close to these losses, and there was no news that caused it. In fact, the shares of the Junior Goldminer index (GDXJ +1.4%) were strong on the day.

I traded GLD heavily yesterday (going long with a full portfolio weighting from about 90% cash) and watched as some traders were purposefully depressing it every time it appeared ready to break to the upside. All they did was hammer ABX and IAG. Was I deterred? Not in the least!

Two days prior, the shares of ABX and IAG had been overbought as the market could see more than double call volume, figuring on a bullish event. In addition, yesterday morning I showed you how I figured the Bank of Japan was intervening to boost the Euro and sink the Yen after the close of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Do you recall the remark?

Latest EUR/JPY chart shows strength in the Euro this morning, meaning that the Bank of Japan has again tried to relieve the pressure on the Yen, which has resulted in a wave of fresh money hitting capital markets.

This morning the same thing happened after traders continued to buy the Yen for several hours. The Yen is at historical highs, which is hurting the country’s vital export market and the government is concerned that the auto manufacturers in Germany and France are getting a free ride on the cheap Euro. The BOJ has been drawn into a trade war that nobody in mainstream media is talking about, but one that you’ve been hearing from me for some time.

Here’s the EUR/JPY chart at 6:00am ET:

blog_sep_2.2.gif

Where this discussion then is headed is that Precious Metals are the beneficiary. There is still a struggle. At 5:20am ET, the Gold future was knocked down; but I think you’ll find it back to testing the all-time high just above 1260 within hours or days.

Latest futures:

blog_sep_2.3.gif

These are interesting markets. The S&P 500 and price of Gold are right at resistance of 1080 and 1260 respectively. There are increasing pleas for more Quantitative Easing. The August US Employment Report is published tomorrow at 8:30am ET. More bad data will support the argument for QE. If the numbers are bad but not much worse than expected, then traders will probably do what they’ve been doing this month and shrug off the bad news. They will buy risk, starting with good quality equities (as they did yesterday). They will also see that a currency war between Japan and Europe is underway, and they’ll go to heavier weightings in precious metals related securities.

Should the price of Gold lift to the $1350 level that many analysts in the Wall Street community have forecast, the large producers will enjoy much greater cash flow, and that’s where traders will focus their interest. The juniors with interesting and valuable but as yet non-producing properties will become take-over candidates, and so their shares will lift too. In all the noise, the penny stock promoters and newsletter writers will be grinding their axes as well.

Normally this move in the stock cycle is a sign that the end is near, but in this case, I’m not so sure. Interest rates and bond yields are at historic lows and monetary authorities are reluctant, for many reasons, to have them move higher. Governments everywhere are clamoring for tax increases, so a little price speculation leading to profit taking would be a welcome relief.

At the end of the day, there is only going to be one of two emotions that get the mountain of cash that individuals, corporations and institutions are now holding and move them to buy risk. Those emotions are fear and greed. A lift-off in the precious metals will signal that greed is in play. On the other hand, a crash in equity prices will result in fear, which will terminate when share prices of the best quality corporations reach a point where traders cannot avoid the investment.

Nobody can accurately forecast prices; but we can all watch trends unfold and try to understand the reasons why.

As I see things shaping up, September will be rally time for Precious Metals (i.e., greed) and October will usher in a collapse in equity prices (i.e., fear), leading to major changes in Washington politics and the make-up of the Congress. It will take that kind of kick-start to end this Bear market.

Have a good day.

CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report

“Volume? We don’t need no stinking volume!”

Here we are the day before the big Employment number and unless you were in just the right stocks from the start, it was a snoozer until the last hour. Then, some shorts decided to get out and some longs – underinvested because they bailed at 1040 – decided to get back in, and the market rallied. The S&P 500 was up 0.91% today following a few important data points:
• Initial Claims came in just below expectations at 472k
• Continuing Claims were slightly higher than expected at 4456k
• Factory Orders disappointed with 0.1%
• Pending Home Sales beat expectations at 5.2%

A mixed data day prior to a big number equals a low volume trading day – no one wants to put on big positions prior to tomorrow or maybe it is the fact that Joe Public has pulled money out of equity mutual funds for the 17th consecutive week. We get it; it’s tough to trust the markets these days.

Tomorrow the market is expecting Nonfarm Payrolls at -120k and the Unemployment Rate at 9.6%. As we discussed yesterday, the actual number is not that important, what is important is how the market reacts to it. If the numbers are “bad”, yet the market is able to shrug off an initial decline and move higher on the day, you can bet that traders are thinking Quantitative Easing is coming and they better not be short. That is probably the most profitable trade set-up that we can envision and would give us an opportunity to get long a few more quality companies as the market would be setting up a bull run for at least a couple of weeks. The cynical side of the trading desk has to wonder if a few of those traders “with the cash” and “in the know” were front running that scenario during the last hour of trading today. But, alas, we will never know.

Of course, a better set-up would have been if the market was still down around the 1040 area, oversold with bearish sentiment and then managed to rally off of bad data. Instead, we are short-term overbought. Oh well, we shall see what happens tomorrow.

Speaking of profitable trade set-ups, the best ones are simple – fade the crowd or as we like to say, “Fleece the sheeple”. The best set-ups are when you catch the majority leaning the same way at an overbought or oversold level. Remember May 2008? Oil was trading at $130 a barrel, every hour there was another report about “Peak Oil” on CNBC and Goldman Sachs call for $200 oil was the headline on every newspaper in America. The public jumped in and profited for a short time…oil rallied to close to $150 a barrel – maybe if they traded it perfectly they made 13% on the trade. But, if they held out for that $200 price and then got that deer in the headlights look, by the end of the year oil was trading at almost $35 a barrel for a loss of over 70%! The big move wasn’t UP like everyone thought, it was DOWN! When everyone is leaning the same way, it is usually the wrong way (and a convenient way for Goldman traders to off their long positions, btw, but you didn’t hear that here).

Trading is not personal. On each trade, there are winners and losers, it is a zero-sum game so we highly recommend that you learn how to “fleece the sheeple” and the best training ground is the gold market where emotions can rule the day. In due time, we will be discussing gold trading strategies that use emotions to profit. In the meantime, good luck tomorrow morning and let’s hope that things get better for all of the unemployed out there.

Have a great evening!

– Geoff Goetz


Bookmark and Share

Comments

Are Existing Home Prices Overrepresented By Up To 40%?

Zero Hedge investigates.

http://bit.ly/aKevLq

BANK IMPLODE DASHBOARD

ALOHA!!

A quick visual that kind of sums up the past present and future ... Here is the "dashboard" of news stories over at the BANK IMPLODE website today.

Romer Calls for More Stimulus [2010-09-02] - "U.S. Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Christina Romer, in her final speech before stepping down, called on the country to ...
Blame For Lehman Bankruptcy Lies With Richard Fuld [2010-09-02] - "Richard Fuld, who pocketed $484 million in compensation between 2000 and 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed, must be a masoch...
Foreclosures' heavy toll on health [2010-09-02] - Almost a third of those dealing with home foreclosure threats reported that their mental and emotional health had worsened duri...
Wall Street Insiders Want Out, Selling $100 Million in Stock [2010-09-02] - "Officers and directors of Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo have sold about $100 million worth of stock so...

I can summarize all of these headlines as classic symptoms of a corrupt monetary system. Changing Congress from DEM to REP won't change any thing for America. Eliminating the US FED will ...

Its a LIABILITY BUBBLE ...

Cara 100 Ratings Changes

Good morning.

VALE - Vale downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital based on valuation.

Robot Traders

This is from Mish today and is far beyond my understanding, but someone here will probably get it.

The Atlantic

Market Data Firm Spots the Tracks of Bizarre Robot Traders

http://tiny.cc/u01oy

Also:

Philly requiring bloggers to pay $300 for a business license

Read more at the Washington Examiner:

http://tiny.cc/bxpbt

OH CANADA

ALOHA!!

Here is the CANADA perspective on politics and debt ... Is it really better in Canada?

LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVBDwAuCdPw

I wonder where Canadian politicians and bankers got their ideas?

WHERE DOES MONEY COME FROM?

Weekly Jobless Claims

US Jobless Claims -6K To 472K In Aug 28 Wk; Survey -3K

US Aug 21 Week Jobless Claims Revised To 478K From 473K

Cara 100 Update

EXC - Exelon initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital. Target $59

Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Reply to yesterday's post: Submitted by Les (3311 comments) on Thu, 09/02/2010 - 02:04 #68356

This has been building gradually for some time. My wife's cousin, a retired police officer, lives in Malmö.

The Islamic influence is now the dominant one Swedes once welcomed all. These immigrants have used the Swedish constitution and openness to their advantage.

We should keep these articles, videos and events in mind regarding the building of a Muslim Mosque near Ground Zero.

They are not to be trusted.

Last month I read an article by a Dutch MP warning of a similar takeover in his country. These people have taken the "mole" technique to an ultimate level — like human cockroaches they will overrun us all if not kept in check.

Forget "diversity" — they have.

Malmö, Sweden: Growing Muslim Influence
http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/556299.aspx
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRnP-XzB_U0

Econoday on Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims may be edging down, at least they have the past couple of weeks. Initial claims for the August 28 week came in at 472,000 compared with a revised 478,000 in the prior week and the 2010 peak of 504,000 the week before that. The four-week average fell 2,500 to 485,500 yet is still about 25,000 higher than a month ago, which is not a positive indication for tomorrow's employment report.

Continuing claims fell 23,000 to 4.456 million in data for the August 21 week. Here the four-week average, at 4.485 and down more than 100,000 from a month ago, probably offers a positive indication for tomorrow's report. Note that a decline in continuing claims reflects both hiring but unfortunately also reflects the expiration of benefits. The unemployment rate for insured employees is unchanged at 3.5 percent.

There are no special factors in today's report, a report that probably won't affect expectations for tomorrow's data. The job sector is flat at best, a description that likewise fits consumer spirits and consumer spending.

SOURCE:
http://bit.ly/d4QeiW

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Unfortunately Grym, people will act when they are inconvenienced and their lifestyle threatened and not before that occurs...

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

I suppose so. It certainly seems that way — whether economic or political.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

CBN news - "christian broadcasting network". I'm just going to take a wild stab in the dark and guess that they're not likely to do a pro-muslim story.

At the same time, I'm definitely in favor of limited immigration in the US. Its the nature of the beast that the current occupants of a nation want it to remain more or less unchanged by immigration. Who wants all your favorite Thai food restaurants to suddenly become Falafel shops? And - really, life without bacon? I don't think so.

Seriously though, this topic reminds me of a great book I read a few years back that coined the phrase "Fault Line War" by Samuel Huntington: The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. He presented a number of cases. The book didn't leave me with a lot of hope of peaceful resolution:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fault_Line_War

"A fault line war is one that takes place between two or more identity groups (usually religious or ethnic) from different civilizations. It is a communal conflict between states or groups from different civilizations that has become violent.

The issue at stake in a fault line war is very symbolic for at least one of the groups involved. Because the issue is one of fundamental identity, these wars are longer and more difficult to resolve than conventional warfare. And even when agreements are reached, the groups are rarely fully satisfied, and often the hatred is only dissolved through genocide."

Simply in the interests of maintaining a peaceful state, it seems unwise to accept large numbers of immigrants whose culture or religion place them "on the other side" of a major fault line conflict with large sections of your nation's current population. Small numbers can be peacefully assimilated over time, but large numbers would seem to make that task much harder.

Currency transaction tax proposal

From today's Everbank's Daily Pfennig comes a report the French have proposed a tax of .005 on currency transactions . . this after the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reported currency trading has reached $4 Trillion per day. France anticpates raising $35 Billion per year from this tax if enacted.

The U.N. will discuss the issue for consideration. DP writes "the U.S. is not part of the countries agreeing to this tax." (Not yet). The subject has come up in the past, but wasn't enacted.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Grym, That's pretty dangerous talk, substitute "Irish" or "Protestant" or "Baptist" and call these people "not to be trusted" and see what reaction you get.

As for calling any race creed or religious group "human cockraches" that has the stench of Nazi all over it.

Step back and take a deep breath, and don't get caught up in the cycle of disinformation and hatred.

Some perspective: We invaded their country, make that 'COUNTRIES'.

But not the one where the majority of the 9/11 attackers came from.

Go figure, Christian Soldiers...

Ciao Z.

g034

BTW, was that g034 who wrote the post close report last night?

Re: g034

Seamus,

Patrick has taken his oldest son to college at Rhode Island and won't return until after Labor Day. Geoff is filling in for him. Since everybody has a different writing style, we decided to attached a name to anything written here.

Massive manipulation underway in gold market

Right after the GDX opened up over +2%, at 53.51, there was a wave of selling in ABX AGAIN. This is sinking the GDX now, which is back to 52.94. But whomever is the culprit, they cannot hold back the flood of capital going into precious metals.

Credit Suisse discusses Cisco / Itron Smart-Grid Partnership

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) OUTPERFORM

CP: US$ 20.27 TP: US$ 32 CAP: 118.9b

Smart-Grid Partnership: Yesterday Cisco announced a strategic alliance with Itron Inc. to develop an open-standards IP-based platform for smart-grid applications and networking. Under the agreement, Cisco will license and embed its IP technology into Itron's OpenWay meters. Itron will also distribute Cisco's networking equipment and software as part of its smart meter deployments to utilities. The arrangement calls for the companies to develop the proposed technological framework using next-generation IPv6 technology. Financial terms of the agreement were not disclosed.

Credit Suisse Outlook: (1) Accelerates Smart-Grid Market Penetration. This agreement advances Cisco's smart-grid networking market strategy, filling the void between the meter access point and the utility in addition to the application layer. Cisco has previously announced products for the smart-grid, including the Home Energy Controller (an in-home device) along with ruggedized routers and switches. One of the leading vendors in the smart meter market with strong utility relationships and approx. 20% share, Itron should help accelerate Cisco's market penetration of the utility smart-grid networking market. (2) Non-Exclusive. Given that the announced relationship is non-exclusive, we suspect that Itron represents the first of a number of other such agreements that will enhance Cisco's smart-grid networking market access. As the dominant IP-networking eqpmt supplier, we suspect other meter suppliers will welcome a similar arrangement with Cisco. (3) Significant Mkt Opportunity. Although we believe that Cisco's smart-grid efforts are at least 18-24 months away from generating revs at or even approaching a $100 mln annualized run-rate, we expect Cisco to exceed a $1 bln annualized run-rate business within 4-8 qtrs thereafter with the market opp growing to a multi-billion dollar per year revenue opportunity.

Valuation: We maintain our 12-month TP of $32, which is derived by applying 17x to our $1.58 FY11 PF EPS (incl. $0.20 of ESO) estimate, excluding $0.00 of interest income and adding back net cash of $4.78.

Re: Massive manipulation underway in gold market

Is this to suggest that NYMEX is no longer the preferred means of hitting the POG, as I recall being the case for such a long time?

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

I'm not interested in emotional toss from CBN or self fulfilling political prophecy which simply regurgitates relations between peoples before Westphalia and the advent of nationhood.

As Kaimu says "it's all about the money". I'm starting to wonder about the connection between immigration and refugee policy and fiat money. You can count the welfare state in that equation too. It's the only way you can pay this fiasco.

I wonder how fewer wars there would be around the world - and subsequently refugees - if fiat money wasn't available to supply parties with cheap and plentiful weapons. Would it have been possible to offshore all the US jobs without fiat money? The credit ponzi scheme/M1 money inflationary environment of the last 2 decades would have surely been more difficult, if not illegal and impossible.

Blame the Muslims Grym? I think its more a case of what Chalmers Johnson calls 'Blowback'. Monetary blowback?

Cara 100 Update

JOYG - PT Raised from $72 to $77 @ RBC. Outperform

KGC - PT Raised from $20 to $21 @ RBC. Sector Perform

Nice double bottom on ABX there

1:2 risk/reward. looks like it wants to break 45.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

This is ugly. Look back in history when other groups were the terrorists about to Destroy America (just watch 3 minutes 29:00-32:00ish) http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-7581348... The Office of Public Diplomacy Management was created because they realized "If [the American people] thought something was a huge threat and they perceived it that way, they would react a certain way and support a more aggressive policy. " Again. Watch the video, with its computer graphics showing global domination of the Sandinistas.

It seems the conversation is now about whether Muslims should exist at all (ie should be allowed to practice their religion) - those foreigners - but who cares if they is us! http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&... Nobody should talk about perpetual war (w/ excess deaths > 1 million), a $1 trillion military budget, nor the idea that disinformation exists to support these things.

I know the market should dominate the conversation but had to jump in.

Re: Massive manipulation underway in gold market

Les,

Gold and silver prices were actually rising at the moment that ABX was getting hammered, again. DGP/AGQ on the 1-minute charts did not pull back much, nor did they pull back until well after ABX was being sold off. AGQ closed yesterday at 66.40 after trading around that number for most of the day. AGQ opened today at 68.04 and by 9:45am ET had lifted to 68.34. DGP stuck close to 33.68 for the opening 15 minutes. Spot bullion prices didn't move down. So, why the selling in ABX?

So, just like yesterday, there is a big player who wants to sell ABX, and that is a big part of GDX.

The GDX did get over-bought recently, and the softness here is not a bad thing for traders at all. What it's doing is offering big traders a chance to get on board, as I see it.

I look for anomalies and I can tell you that there is no fundamental reason for the ABX to be trading in an acutely different pattern than its peer group or re the metal.

Right or wrong -- we'll find out soon -- I'll conclude that some traders have been holding back this precious metals market, which I think is on the verge of a lift-off. There may not be much happening until late in the day, however. Remember that the always well-hyped US Employment data is out at 8:30am ET. Let the action begin after that, but I'm saying that by then the big players will already be positioned.

Re: Massive manipulation underway in gold market

In the past 30 minutes, the GDX moved up +1.2% before pulling back at the earlier high. I think GDX will be higher by possibly +3% today.

thanks Bill for miners advice

I was slowly considering selling or lightening my sizable GDX holding I had since end of July, but your words encouraged me to stay put. Like I said before, there is no panic buying yet, so we should be away from a major top. I like what I see today so far.

Bought some calls on UNG

when it dropped this AM. With a tight stop of course as this one is hard to nail correctly. 6.2 holds as support so far. Trading options on this is at least easy with little spread and premiums, even though UNG is a dog.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Thanks for the video Zack. I am familiar with one of Berlin's important tenet's, enjoyed seeing him in person:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_Concepts_of_Liberty

edit: lol foot in mouth. The entire video was based around this tenet. Interestingly, I did not correctly understand positive liberty as posed originally by Berlin. I had an alternative understanding that is decidedly more positive (pun intended).

SGEN, AMJ, AMLP

A number of posters in the past have touched on biotech.

From the speculative biotech world: SGEN

BOTHELL, Wash., Sep 02, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Seattle Genetics, Inc. announced today that it has achieved a milestone under its antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) collaboration with Agensys, Inc.

http://tinyurl.com/25kzyau

In lieu of Treasurys; MLPs yield alternative without the K-1:

Establishing a position in Master Limited Partnerships (MLP) can bring decent distribution payments especially in a time of low Treasury yields. Up to now however, a MLP position required additional tax filing of K-1 forms, even if position was in an IRA.

Now there are MLP product alternatives where you don't have to file the K-1.

AMJ, an ETN.

AMLP, a new ETF.

A few Steelpath Mutual funds like MLPFX, MLPAX, MLPDX. Note there is a front load fee, although a number of brokers have it waived. MLPs can provide decent yields, but price can flucuate, change when overall Treasury yields start to rise.

Of course, you can trade in and out of the ETN or ETF anytime during the day.
And as mentioned here by many of us in the past, there is a difference between an ETN and an ETF.

Not a recomendation, DOYDD

(FD: small SGEN position; initial AMPL positions in various managed accounts)

MACD signals

TLT, SPY and VIX crossed their respective MACDs in unison. FXY hard to read.

BTW, SLV is breaking out hard. I meant to enter after consolidation but this train left without me. Besides, I'm 100% engaged now.

I saw on other boards that shorts were shorting yesterday heavily, so short covering probably fuels the action today. If we are to crash at some point (I wish I knew if and when) we will crash from higher levels.

NFLX has room to run to new highs

gave out CRM breakout last week, NZ, FTNT here

IV on gold miners

So I noticed that the implied vols on the gold mining stocks seem low, especially given how close they are to a breakout. We have 15 days left until opex for september...

ATAC Resources - up 150% in 8 trading days - wow

Yesterday, ATC.V claimed to have discovered a Carlin-style deposit on its RAU property in the Yukon. Between 56 and 103 meters below surface were two intercepts of over 285 gram meters. Aussieontop used to say that any intercept over 100 gram meters was spectacular. So near to surface, double spectacular!

BUT this was their first drill hole. lotta distance to go yet.

ATAC DO have effective use of visual media:

http://www.atacresources.com/i/pdf/Osiris-Looking_...

I heard a wise voice say recently that the Yukon won't REALLY get going till a 5M oz. pure gold deposit is proven out. This is what can really get the seniors interested. Most estimates to date for white gold and coffee deposits 2-3 max. But it's still early in the game.

(not a geologist; I just read and talk to them ... )

Re: IV on gold miners

Good point. ATR on GDX is among the lowest in 3 years. That usually is followed by a breakout.

"vote no re-election"

As I was driving in my car I saw that sign on a pole. I haven't yet decided if voting universally for the non-incumbent is the way I feel, but I am beginning to lean that way. No second term is an attractive idea. It would make the future much harder to predict and the outcome of political "contributions" much more uncertain for the entrenched rich if they would have to corrupt a new crop of politicians all the time.

And, no office seeker would have a reasonable expectation of becoming a career politician. Those who seek public office would have to expect to return to the private sector after just one term. It would be ironic if the public imposed a one term limit after legislators for years have refused to impose any limits on themselves.

Rig explosion in the Gulf

11:14:16
Mariner Energy inc. Ticking lower as Coast Guard reports of explosion on Mariners Vermillion 380 oil and gas rig off of Louisiana
- Follow up: Mariner spokesman confirms explosion on one of the companys oil and gas production platforms.
- Note that back in 2009 the company reported that the platform was currently producing approximately 28 MMcfe per day, about 50/50 oil and gas. At year-end 2009 estimated proved reserves attributed to our Vermillion 380 field were 33.2 Bcfe, consisting of approximately 47% oil and NGLs and 53% natural gas.

SGEN/bio

thanks for the update, one of baz22's favorites, the OREX he had mentioned is doing well, unfortunately i sold the $5 calls for this month but at a 10% premium per/mo cannot complain. I just sold the ARNA $3 puts for this mo for a 10% premium (cash on cash), another of baz's, as they have an FDA board mtg the day before option exp. Thank goodness for the small bio stocks. best to everyone and am eagerly awaiting more bio tips from baz22 if he will stop working on that house for a few minutes.

Don't you need a PC and phone that won't spy on you?

Not just the company I call "Ooogle" but also Microsoft and Apple rely increasingly upon revenues from gathering and selling information about you - through their own advertising networks and through 3rd parties. Of course, once the corporate actors have it, the US gov't can get it, and with so can time private eyes working their phone company contacts for your business rival or estranged spouse.

If this doesn't concern you, have you ever surfed to a heart-health or diabetes website? A WSJ reporter (who produced the recent series on intrusive web advertisers) pointed out on NPR that there is NO legal bar against health insurance companies buying info about your surfing habits and using it in underwriting decisions. If there is no legal bar against this, I assume it's happening now. If you have shopped for individual health insurance lately, you'll know how capricious their underwriting decisions seem.

"Do no evil" Ooogle is leading the way into not only browsers but also OS's which collect information about us. Chrome is becoming a net-centric OS, initially for netbooks and tablets. Smartphone OS Android is Ooogle's effort to get around Apple's and Facebook's "walled gardens" which they previously could not penetrate. Yesterday, sci-fi author William Gibson asserted in a NYTimes op-ed that "smart cookies" can now follow a proxy chain - which means going through a proxy server (or series of them) won't protect you from prying eyes.

What's the solution? a browser and an OS made by someone whose business model is not built around collecting and selling to the highest bidder private information about you. And there are some: Linux for PC's and Symbian for smartphones. (Symbian is owned by Nokia.) There's also a browser, which to my knowledge, is not involved in data mining: Opera, which was created by the Norwegian telephone company. They're all good, just not prominent in the US. (In Europe there is a strong tradition of "data protection" laws, which prohibit use of information for purposes other than the purpose for which it was originally and legally collected.)

Finally, in today's NYTimes, it was reported that China is instituting a rule that SIM cards for cellphones may not be bought without giving your ID and phone number. The Chinese gov't says they are fighting spam. What will the US gov't say? "we're fighting terrorism!" (Between fighting communism and terrorism, the US stressed the need to fight organized crime!) I bet the USG won't be far behind China in this control of SIM cards. It's already nearly impossible to buy smartphone or PC/internet access without divulging your identity ...

Scott McNealy, ex CEO, Sun Microsystems, famously quipped: "Privacy? It's gone; get used to it!" He should know, right? Well, I'm not ready to give up the fight just yet ...

Re: "vote no re-election"

Lessmore,
Myself and friends have felt this way for a long time. Simply vote out the incumbent. One downside is the congressional power structure is built on seniority. If other states keep re-electing the same person, then those people will occupy the important committee power positions and the newly elected will always be on the outside, so to speak. It only works if all the states simply vote the incumbent out of office each election and don't re-elect a previous office holder. In essence that would be voter enforced term limitation.

Where do I join up! :)
J

Re: Rig explosion in the Gulf

Looks like it coincided with a small spike in UNG but not USO.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Dave,

"Small numbers can be peacefully assimilated over time..."

The problem, or at least a big question, is what if by their very nature they refuse to assimilate?

The main issue even amongst Muslims is as evident in the video and articles anyone who tries to assimilate is "the enemy" and fair game.

The name Cordoba Mosque dates back to the conquest of Spain and a mosque built — not to honor the victims (as is now claimed in NYC), but to honor the warriors who made the building's location possible.

Re: Rig explosion in the Gulf - follow-up

12:05:45
Mariner Energy inc. Spokesperson: All seven wells connected to Vermillion 380 production platform were shut in and there is no oil spill or sheen at this time - CNBC
- Emphasizes that this was a production platform not a drilling rig. 13 crew members were onboard for sandblasting and painting.
- Not aware of any type of materical adverse clause or any other aveunue that could led to changes in the APA merger deal.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

ZedII,

"That's pretty dangerous talk, substitute "Irish" or "Protestant" or "Baptist" and call these people "not to be trusted" and see what reaction you get."

Eventually you get a cooperative community.

They (the ones causing the trouble) have no countries. Our biggest mistake was to think we could solve the problem of 9/11 by invading a country.

The Balfour Declaration of 1917 drew lines in the sand creating "countries", but the indigenous people had no say it the matter. Iraq has so many factions that I doubt they will hold together if and when we totally pull out. Afghanistan if a cluster of tribal warlords we are bribing to let our convoys pass.

If we were at all honest we'd simply state we are oil dependent, so we chose to go in and set up our fortress (Huge, self-contained US Iraq Embassy).

I guess your Nazi label is OK?

I'm always amazed at how quick that comes out to protect a group without any tolerance at all. These guys show they have only hatred for the Jews in Sweden and elsewhere.

The same kind of thinking allowed the Nazis to take over Europe.

NO Follow through from Yesterday's Rally So Far, hummm

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN???

Probably every one is sitting and waiting for the NonFarm Payroll and unemployment numbers tomorrow to choose a trend direction whether go long or short. My guess numbers will be bad and market will sell off tomorrow hard before the long weekend, no one wants to hold money over the long weekend in this economy climate but then again people seem to be buying risk here again on bad news too feeling it is not going to get any worse thinking that market has bottomed. If that's the case then we may actually rally tomorrow too on bad numbers, so go figure :). This doesn't have much to do with Mr. Ben promising QE, it may have to do actually more with the general feeling that market is way oversold and Big Blue-chip companies names are now cheaper so it's time to run them up again. I am cautious here as people felt the same way back in Dec/2008 when they thought stocks were cheap too after the sell off in Oct and Nov/2008 and they jumped to buy cheap stocks only to see the Dow heading lower by 2000 more to hit bottom in March 6, 2009. I guess the lesson we learn here is that in a market full of negativity, high unemployment, housing crisis and low growth, futures companies earnings are in big trouble and mostly will be lower if not negative so based on that I would NOT buy here for long term yet as prices have more room to fall. However, I would jump on a short covering small bounces here and there in this bear market knowing that such bounces only going to last a day or two and if you are lucky 3.

Anyway, I am still on the bearish side except for Gold as every one may know that by now. Only the trend tape reversal will change my view to go solidly long on equities. However, since the big DOGS of Wall street trade against the sentiment of the retail investors like us, it's very likely whatever we say here they going to do the opposite and drive the market against our expectation. Therefore, it doesn't really matter what we think here any more, let’s just trade the tape based on setups and price action as Bill and Vad say and use tight stops to conserve capital. I heard Vad use stops like 1 to 2% stop loss maximum and this may be the smart thing to do. Setting stops like 5% to 10% in this very volatile market could cost you very dearly. I guess we all live and learn.

GLTA

Re: NO Follow through from Yesterday's Rally So Far, hummm

"I heard Vad use stops like 1 to 2% stop loss maximum"

Let me clear that up because there are many ways to read that. 1-2% max stop rule refers to the max loss on any given trade as a % of your trading capital. That alone does NOT mean that a stop must be placed at the level guaranteeing such loss - stop placement is defined by a chart support and balancing with your account size is achieved through the position sizing.

http://blog.realitytrader.com/2007/04/stops-why-an...

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Grym - "The problem, or at least a big question, is what if by their very nature they refuse to assimilate?"

Do you know any muslims? I do. They seem to have assimilated pretty well. Often it took a while before I found out they were muslim - it was just another aspect, not even the dominant one. They are probably second generation, I'm not even sure actually.

In relatively small numbers, any group can be assimilated eventually. There will be some holdouts, but the vast majority will take on the culture where they are. It took quite a while for every immigrant group; the irish, the italians, every new group was derided by those who were already here, but we've forgotten long ago about that. "No Irish Need Apply". Ah, but the new immigrants, they're REAL trouble...unlike the old immigrants who were really no big deal at all. Salt of the earth and all that.

Sure, taxi drivers in NYC all seem to come from either India or Pakistan. But their kids will go to public school, become Americans, and 1 generation from now you won't be able to tell other than that they don't get sun burned when they go to the beach...

Re: NO Follow through from Yesterday's Rally So Far, hummm

There is a follow up, it depends what markets you look at.
Most importantly, TBT is rallying big time. Incidentally, all my long positions are in green today, even though I expected some softness today (maybe we'll get is later).

And you are correct that the big guys play against small investors like our self. This is were the money is in trading. I've heard 85% loosers and 15% winners on average. I guess similar to casinos.

Re: NO Follow through from Yesterday's Rally So Far, hummm

Jack I'm behind you 100% on that follow through. I'm seeing that move down in TLT - the air seems to be coming out of the long bond rally disproportionate to the move up in equities. It would be interesting to see where the money is going...

Last week's NZ at highs

from last week, looking for breakout.

Re: NO Follow through from Yesterday's Rally So Far, hummm

Thanks Vad for clarifying this point. What is your position here on this market if I may ask? Put the charts setups, price action, and trading aside, how do you feel about this market and where do you think it's heading? Care to share your views? I know you don't talk much about that here but say I am curious to know :)

Thanks in advance..

Re: NO Follow through from Yesterday's Rally So Far, hummm

Jack Black..

I am basically looking at the equities market here of course. so far it's FLAT for the day and may sell off end of day actually. This is happening now after the huge short covring rally of yesterday (255 points on the DOW, WOW).

Re: NO Follow through from Yesterday's Rally So Far, hummm

Don't forget we have the non mfg ISM number out at 10 am ET tomorrow also, a holiday Monday, and very little US data next week.

Re: NO Follow through from Yesterday's Rally So Far, hummm

Hmm... if I put "charts setups, price action and trading" aside, what's left for me to base any views on?? :)

Seriously, my takes are based on comparison of available information and price action. Divergence between them is my bread and butter. And caviar. As far as current charts go, there are two things I have to say:

1. Too much is being made of each day's action - thin holiday trading in August was way too random to provide serious base for any conclusions.
2. There is slight edge on a positive side as market is holding up much better than outlook and prevailing mood suggest. Not enough edge for me to become decisively bullish but enough to keep an eye on further signs of divergence.

Funny though, almost all trades today were on a short side, with nice 5 out of 6 winning rate. Will have whole two charts to post today... hear that Bear E? :)

Re: NO Follow through from Yesterday's Rally So Far, hummm

Thanks Vad for sharing your views. I appreciate your thoughts.

Re: NO Follow through from Yesterday's Rally So Far, hummm

Analyst - Russell 2000 has been and continues to be the leading index (in both directions) and has been for a couple months. Take a look at the 5-day chart - today definetly has been a continuation of yesterday. Lots of shorts got trapped yesterdays gap up open. I think the shorts will have to be the ones to decide if they are comfortable holding their position over the long weekend. My 2 cents.

Re: NO Follow through from Yesterday's Rally So Far, hummm

Today fits my definition of a "slow burn" day. All the trapped shorts are trying to judge their conviction. Some are covering while there are still some short-term profiteers left to unload to them. The market is up broadly but moderately up while those who choose not to cover/take losses just get boiled like frogs as the market slowly moves up through out the day.

Another gap up tomorrow could be a stake through the heart of shorts and we certainly created a number of strange gaps on the way down that we could revisit.

2 Charts

2 charts today!
Glad Vad.
Thank you.
Happy Bear

Cashing In Chips/ All Bets Off

AA/AMAT/BAC/CSCO/INTC/WFC/XOM off @ 10.80/10.72/13.23/20.44/18.24/24.89/60.88.

Will be taking FSRBX/FSELX/FSENX off the table at the close.

If I tried to explain why, I'd have to make something up. All I know is I typically change positions on a dime- and right now, I'm not interested in carrying the same risk I was attracted to a week ago. Currently up 6% on the total portfolio in less than 2 days, which I'm happy with- that number could easily take a major dip by the close, but those are the rules we play by with mutual funds.

50% cash. Will be at 100% cash by EOD.

Re: NO Follow through from Yesterday's Rally/Bulls have the edge

I would agree that it's bears who are trapped here. Trapped bulls were eliminated earlier in the week. So in any tug-of-war between the two, I'd have to bet on the bulls.

Worthy of your time

Kudos to Barry Schwartz, vice-president and portfolio manager, Baskin Financial Services, who shared his top picks this afternoon on BNN-TV. Excellent stuff, Barry.

Reminds me to not be so critical of mainstream media. Actually, I have always been a fan of Canada’s BNN-TV. You would never see quality content like this at Bloomberg TV or CNBC. You can watch, listen and relax to an independent and objective market pro discuss his market views for 30 minutes – the way it should be.

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip343566

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip343567

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Grym, I am not calling you a Nazi, but labeling a people together as "hating.... (fill in the blank)" because of some bad actors or their political leaders is bigotry. Take care not to go there.

Are Christians fascist because of some of the recent hate speech from right wing TV preachers?

Do Americans hate Iraqis because of our trumped-up invasion of their land?

Am I protecting " a group without any tolerance..."?

What "group" would that be?

In your post #68404 I agree with much of what you say. I urge you to not throw everyone in these nations we have invaded into the same catagory.

Z.

Re: Worthy of your time

Schwartz's remarks on TLT come at an opportune time. Look likes topping out. Decent gap there to fill.

AttachmentSize
TLT weekly 179.86 KB

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Dave,

Apparently my cockroaches analogy prevented people from even bothering to look at the video, the articles or do any further search.

Watching them running wild in Sweden, I immediately thought of the roaches at the Ft. Leonard Wood pastry kitchen which even a monthly extermination never brought under control.

I could have used rabbits perhaps, but the issue in Malmö is so extreme and getting worse that people fear walking the streets or sending their kids to state schools which have become totally Muslim dominated.

"You have 1,000 students in a Swedish school. How many are Swedes? Two," said Lars Birgersson, principal of the Rosengrad School."

There are stories in the UK of allowing Sharia law. Perhaps someone can comment on the truth or falseness.

I only know one Muslim here in my neighborhood — not a problem. We also have several blacks and Mexican family. No one has been demanding a change to satisfy their own special preferences. No one has declared a Jihad either.

My concern is the blanket acceptance so many provide thinking this is a religious freedom issue, national or even as mentioned today economic or monetary. While all those factors may be present the issue is total control or refusal to be controlled by civil law.

This is an extreme domination problem spreading globally by people with zero tolerance for others traditions of any kind. Pure religious extremism.

For those put off by a Christian connected story try this from the UK Telegraph. (Ironic how selective tolerance can be.)

http://tiny.cc/3aqaz

Or Fox for the conservatives among us.

http://tiny.cc/cjc4v

The Times (UK)
ISLAMIC law has been officially adopted in Britain, with sharia courts given powers to rule on Muslim civil cases.

http://tiny.cc/2nn08

IWM

New high of the day.

gdx starting to catch a bid

TLT looks like its ready to break at 104.75. SPY could be a double top here.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Grym,
I regularly read your posts and in general find them well-thought-out and informative. However, on this particular issue, for whatever reason your posts strike me uncharacteristically obtuse.

While it is popular to use the phrase "sharia courts" the decisions appear to have the standing of administrative tribunals, where both parties have to agree to their dispute being heard by the administrative quasi-judicial arbitrator(s). There are far more disputes decided by administrative bodies than courts of law in America as well.

With respect to your last link, you fail to mention those of the Jewish faith have also been applying their religious law to disputes in Great Britain. What justification is there for denying the same right to those of the Muslim faith?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7233040.stm

Quick setup example

Actually, two of them as promised:

http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2010/09/sep-02...

Both are cute as a button

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

"The problem, or at least a big question, is what if by their very nature they refuse to assimilate?"

I will start this post by stating up front that I do not approve of the reported vicious and criminal acts of Muslim extremists in Europe. The acts should be universally condemned and the perpetrators should be punished.

Yet, something is happening beneath the surface in Europe that is not being explained or well reported.

Muslim riots and criminal acts occur mostly in Europe and anti-Muslim sentiment is much stronger in Europe than in America.

Large numbers of Muslims have immigrated to America just as large numbers have immigrated to Europe. If the Muslim riots and criminal acts occurred mostly in America it could be explained on the basis that on 9/11 America was attacked by Muslim radicals and America is predominant in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. So why is Europe and not America the situs of such angst?

In light of Europe's tepid opposition and constant acceptance of the Nazi oppression of Jews in the 1930s and 1940s, the Europeans certainly are not really angered by the Muslim hatred of Jews.

Perhaps the true problem is that Europe is not and has never been a melting pot. Although Gypsies, Jews, Muslims and others have lived among the French, Germans, Swedes, Danes, etc., they were always expected to live non-assimilated lives. And they were expected to live such lives quietly, non-obtrusively and docilely in Ghettos without complaining about oppression.

Muslims are not a quiet, non-obtrusive docile group. They are complaining, sometimes violently.

I do not wish to defend or try to justify Muslim bad behavior. Rather, I would like to understand what is really happening in Europe with Muslims, particularly since today's Muslims are not new immigrants but mostly the children of workers that migrated to European countries since the end of World War II.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Not to beat a dead horse, but no there is not Sharia law in the UK. The Times is a rather conservative paper, and as in the USA take conservative papers with a large grain of salt.

There is an " arbitration agreement" that UK laws allow binding arbitration in cases where all parties agree to the terms, and prefer that form to the British courts. This was applied to civil cases as a means to extend more latitude in religous/cultural situations not addressed in mainstream British law.

No stoning to death for indescretions.

Don't get me wrong, I think on the whole most religions are open to, and have been streched to absurd conclusions by their extreme practioners.

I myself am a lapsed atheist.

Just as all Germans in WW II did not hate Americans, nor were fascists, all Muslims are by a long shot not hateful of other ways of life or religions.

I am not defending what I find basicaly backwards.

Now back to looking at the charts...

Ciao, Z.

Inv. Intel

This report from yesterday does make an intermediate term bear (such as I) somewhat anxious.
http://tiny.cc/ft34o

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Just a couple of points to consider.
A lot of Christian groups have exercised this same type of malice toward each other in various countries, the U.S. included. Ireland comes to mind as does some southern States early on in our development. Non-Catholics were discouraged and oppressed in Texas leading to the Spanish and Mexican american wars and Irish Catholics were discriminated against including carrying over into the 1960 Presidential election where Kennedy had to make public assurances he was his own man and wouldn't be directed by the Pope. One could imagine a Muslim running for office here and having to assure some groups he wouldn't be directed by an Ayatollah or what-have-you. Obama had to appear before IPAC and assure American Jews he would support Israel. I didn't notice too much concern over that.....

Noting all the different Christian sects and denominations, it is also the same for Muslims, which because Americans are largely ignorant of anything unfamiliar, is lost to FOX news and those relying on Glen Beck for theocratic education.
for example, the sect of Muslims that want to build a religious center (it's NOT a Mosque) are the Sufi's. Sufi's are not particularly well accepted by some of the more militant sects and are known for their peaceful, metaphysical approach to the Koran and their poetry. One watching or listening to FOX would never know this as their reporting is really intended to inflame the electorate and divide the people along well accepted and largely unresolvable Constitutional lines that because they are rooted in the Constitution and Bill of Rights, have no real answer but lawful educations, tolerance and acceptance. Politicians and their respective interests just love to fan the flames of hatred and intolerance around largely guaranteed issues like the Second Amendment, Abortion, unfamiliar religious groups, etc.

This discussion reminds me of when I was a kid and all the movies were about WWII and the "Japs" and the "Krauts" and the WWII period when Japanese Americans were interred. Then it was the cold war and the "Red" Chinese and the Godless "Soviets". Then it was Korea, Vietnam, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Egypt, Libya, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran.....

One thing lost on all of us seems to be the one constant. US.

Yes, we've done some good things but in a lot of these conflicts and vilifying of peoples and their religions, we have been less than exemplary ourselves.
Someone mentioned 'blow-back'. It might be prudent to take a look at that closer before we go too far.

Maybe we should take some time to examine our relationship with Islam since, I don't know, about the Crusades on, and our more recent involvement and see if we don't have room to educate ourselves and see how we might be responsible for some of the problem.

I'm not saying we shouldn't protect ourselves, but unless we are going to throw out the Constitution and our *own* religious protections, we might want to check our enthusiasm at the door and see if we might actually be doing exactly as Osama Bin Laden might have known we would both militarily, socially and fiscally. We jumped on 9/11 and have been more or less shooting ourselves in the foot since. A little self examination and strategy might be in order.

It also seems to me that we should know about the various Islamic sects and denominations before we get carried away, as they are just as varied as Christianity, Judaism, Hinduism, Buddhism, etc.

Re: Inv. Intel

Agree, the investors are bearish at a level not seen since March 2009.

ISE put/call data

Has anyone used the put/call data from ISE on actual securities rather than composite data?
The source is here:
http://www.ise.com/WebForm/viewPage.aspx?categoryI...
The table in the right upper corner show the most bought or shorted securities via options. For example TBT is among most bullish and EEM and QQQQ among most bearish today.
I'm trying to figure out how the info is useful but could not find a pattern yet. The common sense suggest going against the majority players meaning short TBT/long QQQQ? Anyone?

Re: Inv. Intel

But George, isn't that graph based on sentiment 50 S&P points ago, when we were knocking on 1040. It is 1090 now. I went long some SDS and some march 2011 S&P puts today near close. While we may have some more upward movement, there is much more room down IMHO. We should also start hearing some more earnings warnings soon. I think that the jobs numbers will be bad, not horrible, some downward revisions to earlier months. But I really think the Service ISM number is going to lay the egg tomorrow. The National Assn of Credit Mgrs MFG index improved in August but was almost canceled out by the decline in the Service index. Less than 120 days til taxes increase!

Re: Worthy of your time

That TLT gap! It was a killer for me. I had in the money puts on TLT betting on a triple top. Next day the stop was triggered MUCH below the safety net. I lost way more than the intended 2% portfolio on that trade. Even though I though I was well protected by a stop. Learning costs a lot.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Thanks Craig for the excellent post.

Chart resource

Found a pretty neat chart resource (free) that many will be interested in.
Includes indices, sectors etc as well as some individual stocks within a given sector (i.e. miners).

Check it out.

KC

http://breakpointtrades.com/market_lab/index.php/a...

Re: ISE put/call data

Interesting.
The chart shows the top bullish stock is C with 15,513 CALLS and only 319 PUTS.
Something is holding C back, last time I checked C was negative 17 days out of 20. Now the bullish chart is suggesting accumulation for C.
I'm with you....going against the grain on C and QQQQ seems to be key here.

Re: Inv. Intel

Quite a fine little chart George. I quickly clicked on the 2 year button and only the period from January-April 2009 gave a hint of what increasing bear sentiment might look like. I wish I could see a 20 year chart with the same indicators.
J

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Freedom57, Lessmore, Zed II, Craig,

Well, perhaps I am being obtuse, or perhaps I just have a long memory. A good friend who back then was an executive with a major insurance company lost over 200 people on 9/11. He floated between Chicago and NYC. He took it quite hard and I remember him telling me his feelings when dealing with the families.

I was taping something on CNBC that morning, went to check the tape just as the TV anchor was interrupted with the announcement of the "crash of a small plane into the WTC." I knew immediately they were back to finish the botched 1993 job and told my wife, "It's those goddam Arab wackos again."

For the next several hours I watched it live and have played the 6 hour tape only once to be sure I got it all.

These guys have declared a Jihad on us and are biding their time to hit us again. They don't need to hurry — we are too stupid to think about what they are up too. Our entry into the Middle East is just the kind of thing they could count on — create ill will against us, suck us dry economically, turn people against any military action — they are probably laughing about it right now.

They can get away with more in Europe because A. They are more liberal than we and B.They are even less unified than we still are.

My problem is not with those who live in the 21st Century, but with those living in 700AD. Last week a Muslim couple were walking down one of our city streets in 92 degrees of humidity. The husband was wearing shorts and a muscle shirt — his wife was wearing a black umbrella tent and walking 2 paces behind.

I have no problem with people who come to the US and merge in, but for those who come here demanding we accommodate their lifestyle, language or use our constitution to force their antiquate laws be accepted...

I have no tolerance. They can just go back and play in their own sandbox.

All the other allusions to various religions, ethnic or nationality differences ignore the fact that currently none of them are a threat to the general society. Historically there are similarities, but unless they start killing people or announce a similar "Jihad" type intent — no problem.

As far as the NYC mosque — picture the reaction if we built a monument to US Persian Gulf War vets in Mecca, or the Japanese built a Shinto shrine at Pearl Harbor.

Enough of all these grinning FACES: it's time for "ASS-book" !

NO, I'm not proposing what you THINK I'm proposing. Rather, a refuge for those who have made ASSES of themselves on Facebook, and thus destroyed either a career or a relationship. A private area for mourning, Mr. Zuckerberg, from which your convoluted privacy policies take no commercial advantage, where only victims of their own exhibitionism may enter to commiserate, and to plan a dignified transition to the new identities mentioned by Mr. Schmidt (chief Ooogler) as a solution to this crisis of reckless public display of faces in the wrong places.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Zed,
"lapsed atheist" leaves you on the fast lane to hell with no pain killer (per Marx, "religion is the opiate of the masses").

Grym, like most here I read your writings with respect, but by allowing a bunch of religious extremist to define our attitude to a religious group, we risk undermining one of the foundations of our country.

I haven't let my atheism lapse, but I'm happy to let everyone else practice their religion as they wish, as long as they don't attempt to impose it on the rest of us.

Incidentally, I think you'll find common ownership between Fox News and the (UK)Times.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

ALOHA!!

ON SWEDES AND DANISH
Don't allow diversion ...

The truth is that we need to focus all our attention on Congress and the US FED. What these two monopolies are doing to America's future is far worse than any bearded caveman's jihad! Nevermind the Arabs mosque or gay marriage or Michelle's entourage or inflation vs deflation. This sort of RUSH STUFF is just what GM(Government Mafia)wants us to spend all our time and efforts debating. They prefer a fully divided WE THE PEOPLE and what better way to divide us than down political and religious lines.

ON ABX
Bill, why I am not surprised that ABX is in the middle of some sort of "manipulation". These guys are forever mining markets not metal.

What economic calculation requires is a monetary system whose functioning is not sabotaged by government interference. - Ludwig Von Mises, Human Action 1933

Re: Cashing In Chips/ All Bets Off

So an EOD rally allowed me to close out the 'buy-and-hold' half at the highs of the day.

With time for introspection, my reasons for cashing out:

(a) I was 'hoping' my positions would close at the highs. When I find myself hoping, odds favor closing.

(b) I was up 5-6% over 2 days (I ended the day closer to 5%, as Fidelity charges a short-term redemption fee of 0.75%). What crossed my mind was:

(i) Pigs get slaughtered,

(ii) Just last week I was thinking it would take awhile for my balance(s) to hit this level day trading small positions- now that the target was within reach, why not take it? Last,

(iii) I wouldn't want to be sitting at the dinner table explaining how I let a 5% gain slip away.

Think I flip sides too quickly? Well, sometimes it's an advantage.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Agreed, Craig, that was excellent work.

deleted

deleted

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Excellent Post, well said Craig..

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Craig, I wish you would post more often. You slowed to almost nil many moons ago.

Re: Cashing In Chips/ All Bets Off

Good job, 2nd. Your discipline is the kind that could only be forged in a crucible like we've had the last few years.

Hope, enthusiasm, and pigginess are our enemies. Myself, I'm going to try for a bit more pigginess on this recent move. Essentially, these markets have been flat for 12 months. I think that time, rather then price, corrected the March 2009-September 2009 move. I don't think there was much choice: another serious price correction, so soon after 2008, would have been the final straw for this wicked industry :).

hi toby,

!! still love those old houses... had been waiting on news for ' imgn ' for quite awhile.. do believe this one will be mega-status in about 16 months. ( attached )., http://seekingalpha.com/article/223275-immunogen-w...... watching ' cytr ' for signs of life.. plenty of hype, but their Rnai research is valid - reminds me of when ISIS (ex-liver issues )was playing around $ 2.00.. ' arql ' is very interesting ( now that Pfizer dropped the ball ).. anyway, will try to update some ideas soon.. best of trades to ya'...

Bill Cara----Question...?

I am wondering have you yet formulated if enough time has passed which groups and or indexes or stocks as when and perhaps they reveal themselves that you will be looking at as tells? This is a bit early I know; the negative momentum has not even been broken. You have mentioned stabilization in the past and also good news does happen per your remarks in 2007...sorry I do not have the exact reference.

Good trading!

Edit:

as a case in point

http://www.reuters.com/article/idCATOE68200H201009...

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Agree with others- excellent post. But it is complicated, is it not? We can talk about the muslims but if we are discussing religion and "religious freedom", take the catholic church for example. The same arguments apply, and it is in some ways "closer to home." At times persecuted, many times the persecutor for hundreds of years. Thousands of allegations of pedophilia and child abuse and not a lot of convictions... Imagine another organization that wasn't a "religion" getting away with sweeping something like that under the carpet. It just wouldn't happen. And why should taxpayers foot the bill for pelosi to "meet with the pope." Not bashing a religion, just trying to make a point about religion in general and it's influence/role in our government/society.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Agree with others- excellent post. But it is complicated, is it not? We can talk about the muslims but if we are discussing religion and "religious freedom", take the catholic church for example. The same arguments apply, and it is in some ways "closer to home." At times persecuted, many times the persecutor for hundreds of years. Thousands of allegations of pedophilia and child abuse and not a lot of convictions... Imagine another organization that wasn't a "religion" getting away with sweeping something like that under the carpet. It just wouldn't happen. And why should taxpayers foot the bill for pelosi to "meet with the pope." Not bashing a religion, just trying to make a point about religion in general and it's influence/role in our government/society.

More Gold M&A

And another one.........

Andean up 30% on the ASX tonight.

Eldorado Confirms Proposal to Andean Resources

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - 09/02/10) - Eldorado Gold Corporation (TSX:ELD - News)(NYSE:EGO - News)(ASX:EAU - News) ("Eldorado" the "Company" or "we") today confirmed it has approached the Board of Directors of Andean Resources Limited ("Andean") with a proposal to combine the two companies, thus creating the world's fastest growing and lowest cost gold producer.

Andean is a dual listed company (TSX:AND - News)(ASX:AND - News) whose main asset is the Cerro Negro Gold Project ("Cerro Negro") in the southern province of Santa Cruz in Argentina. Cerro Negro is an epithermal gold deposit at feasibility study stage that currently contains 2.1 million oz of gold and 20.6 million oz of silver in Probable Reserves.

The proposal put to the Andean Board was for a share exchange transaction at a fixed exchange ratio of 0.310 of an Eldorado common share for each Andean ordinary share, through a friendly transaction supported by a majority of the Andean Directors (the "Proposal").

Eldorado believes that the Proposal is extremely compelling for all Andean shareholders and represents a fully valued offer for Andean. Based on the closing price of an Eldorado share on the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") on August 30th, 2010, the written Proposal, dated August 30th, 2010, followed an earlier initial approach to Andean on August 18th, 2010, and valued Andean at Cdn$6.36 per share, representing:

-- A premium of 61.9% to the Andean 20 day volume weighted average price on the TSX to August 30th, 2010.-- A premium of 89.9% to the Andean recently completed equity financing, which was priced by the Board of Andean at Cdn$3.35 per share.
The Proposal would result in Andean shareholders owning approximately 24% of the combined company on a fully diluted basis, based on reported issued capital of each company as of August 30th, 2010.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Great post Craig, well thought out, and the delivery was even better. I concur with your view 100%.

I have dealt with a Muslim accountant, "practicing" for 25 years, who handles 125 small business accounts, a wonderful man. He talks the talk and does the walk, in his own community, through volunteer work, charity, etc. He is the most honest person that I know, and for me to say that about a accountant, is a big step.

It is because of his religious belief, that I trust him, he puts his faith into action.

Lately I have found myself defending Muslims, in my little world, as the smear campaign through the media grows, to create differences, amongst us.

Ooogle: I don't feel alone anymore ....

Somebody else is somewhat freaked about Ooogle. This "ad" mocking Ooogle ran on the Jumbotron in Times Square:

http://insidegoogle.com/2010/08/do-not-track-me/

privacy-protective search engine

Any other Caristas concerned with being Ooogled might consider the following search engine, which (unlike Ooogle) does not store your IP address, nor use tracking cookies, nor allow the 3rd party cookies which 3rd parties use to track your surfing from website to website.

http://eu.startpage.com/eng/company-faq.html#q3

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Hang in there Grym,
I understand exactly what you are saying. I too lost friends in the WTC.

I guess some of us are old enough to have escaped the public school PC curriculum and the Madison Avenue propaganda agenda that teaches that we should all try to understand one another and drink Coca Cola.

America is the most tolerant country in the history of the world. We have a mulato President, women on the Supreme Court, queers in our congress and we will even let girls fight in our military. Pornography is ubiquitous even to our children and if you have enough money and influence you will never fear prison. In some states you can even marry your asshole buddy and collect benefits. Baudelaire who had an unerring sense for the decadent would not be lacking for material were he alive today!

It's just where we are in the cycle of civilization and it must be accepted because we may not live backwards.

No need to get into the theosophy of the Jewish ghettos (now Islamic ghettos) in Europe. Religions that preferred theocratic law have always to some extent been given sway but only for some commercial and cultural purposes where it did not impinge on the host countries sensibilities...or rule.

Jewish/Islamic peoples have for the most part ghettoized themselves in host countries for cultural reasons. They do not wish to assimilate. They are there mainly for economic reasons. Study the 'treason' trials of Uriel Acosta or Spinoza. The Rabinate expelled them and handed them over to their host country as foreign criminals... The Rabinate then and the Imams today cannot be considered as equal to their host governments. Magian peoples (a Spenglarian term) do not recognize a separation of church and state and the people. The question for them becomes who rules; the Caliph or the Sultan.

Islamic peoples who will not or cannot recognize a separation of church and state have no invitation to live in Western Civilization. Their hosts may one way or another invite them to leave.

Any Western civilization person that thinks he understands and can fathom the spiritual depths of Islam, Confucianism or the Slavic mind would do well to order the compete set of CD's from Rosseta Stone on how to speak DOG...

They will never understand us nor we them. Understand this first and save yourself a lot of grief.

futures at 2am - Shanghai struggling, Asia mixed

S&P -2.20 / -0.20%
Level 1,087.40
Fair Value 1,089.21
Difference -1.81
Nasdaq -2.00 / -0.11%
Level 1,835.25
Fair Value 1,840.41
Difference -5.16
Dow -14.00 / -0.14%
Level 10,295.00

so greed was in for the close yesterday. cool. still, TLT produced 1:2 into close - no selling pressure in the final minutes.

nice ascending triangle in EUR/JPY. worth watching.

AttachmentSize
EUR/JPY 30 min 17.76 KB

Re: More Gold M&A

ALOHA!!

Looks as if GOLDCORP(GG) has scooped the deal ... The largest AND shareholder is going to go with the GoldCorp offer, at $3.6BIL, unless a better offer comes in.

LINK: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100903/pdf/31sb551m...

FD: 481MIL shares

A brief review of the Management and I see someone needs to follow Krista Muhr around to see where she ends up next as prior to this she was at Meridian Gold that was taken over by Yamana Gold in 2007. Providing she owned shares in AND she has done well for herself in the role of VP,Investor Relations.

It is sometimes fortuitous to work in minor roles in major companies. Just down from one of our flower deliveries right on the ocean at Kaloli Bay is an ex-mailroom supervisor from EBay who looks all of 40 and retired!

All that said I see by the share structure that AND management had a 1% stake in the company. Not very high at all compared to management's 14.2% stake at Silver Lake Resources(SLR:ASX), which by the way closed up 6.5% at yet another all time high of $2.30AUD. That moves SLR up to a 1300%+ gain ... Also Sprott Asset Management holds a 9.5% share of SLR.

Congratulations to AND shareholders ... Seems the M&A juggernaut is on the move!!

ROUBINIFIED

ALOHA!!

Leave it to Roubini to be a "lagging economist"!! Earth to Roubini what have we been in for the last two plus years? He replies ... "It depends on what the definition of "in" is ..."

Roubini Says Dollar, Franc May Beat Gold in Recession
September 03, 2010, 4:31 AM EDT

By Francine Lacqua and John Fraher

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said the dollar, the yen and the Swiss franc may be a better investment than gold if the world economy slips back into recession.

“If there was a double-dip recession, increasing risk aversion, some assets are going to be preferred, and gold will be one of them,” Roubini said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s On The Move with Francine Lacqua. “But in that situation, things like the dollar, the yen, the Swiss franc have more upside in a situation of rising risk aversion because they are much more liquid than the gold market.”END

You know, where is the "conviction" Nouriel ... Why do these guys always use the word "may"? Dollar, Franc May Beat Gold Can you take "may" to the bank? So you are saying gold is a currency like the Dollar and the Franc ... is that it? Using circular logic then why is it you have set "gold" as the standard, as the currency to "beat"? You don't say iron ore or lead or oil or cotton ... I thought gold was a commodity, not a currency.

Hummmmm ... "much more liquid" ... I guess that means there is a heck of a lot more of them!!! Hey, its a LIABILITY BUBBLE dude and last I heard DEBT was no ASSET!!! Well, unless you buy into the US Treasury's Balance Sheet!

This has to be one of Roubini's best quotes ...
“It’s going to feel like a recession even if we’re not in a recession.”

You mean so long as you are still employed its not a recession?

Contrast Roubini's "recession denial" to what Ferguson says on the same speaking engagement in Italy ...
Also speaking from Cernobbio, Harvard University historian Niall Ferguson said the global economy remains plagued by the trade imbalances that helped trigger the financial crisis and that U.S. consumers are not going to provide the engine of the growth.

Hummmmm ... no US consumer engine ... Since that makes up 70% of US GDP then where does that leave us? Well, if US consumers will not be the engine then who will?

More of those insidious questions????? Where and who has all the answers? Isn't there someone ... somewhere ... who will astutely do all my thinking for me? Isn't there someone who will take care of me from my cradle to my grave? If it isn't the "O" for Oprah then what "O" is it? Hummmm ...

Well, I am going to go deflate(down)to the Unemployment office tomorrow and pick up one of those non-recession unemployment checks! Then I am going to go deflate to the Food Stamp(SNAP) office with the other 41 million Americans and grab a new EBT card!

No more vino for you!

futures 6am - Shanghai composite closes flat - Europe green

S&P +1.10 / +0.10%
Level 1,090.70
Fair Value 1,089.21
Difference 1.49
Nasdaq +5.25 / +0.29%
Level 1,842.50
Fair Value 1,840.41
Difference 2.09
Dow +4.00 / +0.04%
Level 10,313.00

Autos in choppy trading, French Banks getting a solid bid.
6am Euro and Dollar look like they are about to part in opposite directions.
EUR/JPY broke, whether it has follow through is yet to be seen.

AttachmentSize
currencies hourly timeframe 39.37 KB

Re: ROUBINIFIED

That was a great trip through Roubini's "Monetary Nostradamus" - I bet what he means when he says "feels like recession" is that we'll be able to buy a lot less with the same $. The man is telegraphing every scenario in his (almost double) speak...

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

ChrisM,

"...by allowing a bunch of religious extremist to define our attitude to a religious group, we risk undermining one of the foundations of our country."

An alternate view: I define the problem as including not just the extremists, but the rank and file as well.

Islam is set up along a chain of command — the extremists are wiling to do anything (including kill) to anyone (including their own) which is the "will of Allah". The Mullahs call the shots in the immediate region and issue decisions on any topic in question. The so called "moderates" may not hate us or want to kill us, but like Woody Allen who said, "Just in case their is an afterlife, I'm taking a clean set of underwear," are unwilling to take a stand in opposition.

Not to see the concentration of power which is taking place in so many places or to think this is a civil rights matter is, IMO, extreme folly.

The "imposition" is insidious.

Incidentally, to ignore Fox, the Times or anyone due to prejudice is narrow minded. Did you watch the video from Malmö? The comments of acceptance sound like yours —"It is their right."

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

There was similar thinking as Hitler and Stalin amassed power and jockeyed for position.

Kennedy, Lindbergh and most of Wall St. were diverted by money and other philosophies.

We need to cover all bases.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Thanks Ross,

I feel like the Lone Ranger here. My analogy of cockroaches apparently shut off any further comments or explanations from me or any of the links I included.

I'm not out to lynch anyone because of religious beliefs, but I see this as something other than a difference of theological opinion.

There is a group within Islam who have openly declared war (Jihad) on all not believing just like themselves. Sure, other religions have a history of killing in the name of their religion, but it is no longer a problem — this bunch is and their influence and intimidation is wide reaching.

Our openness approaches that in Sweden where my wife's cousin lives. We ignored the forces behind the 1993 WTC attack and treated them like a crime rather than military operation and got 9/11. There it is a virtual invasion and the sheer numbers are allowing them to impose their own aims.

The emotions of that day did not result in anything like the Japanese internment camps, nor do I think they should have. But the NYC mosque has tremendous symbolism which transcends any PC considerations.

Re: Inv. Intel

yes there are some timing differences but the changes have been dramatic. personally I hope your SDS works out as I'm in that camp.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

Jihad is not about making war on anyone who does not believe. This is propoganda only available from propoganda makers. This is exactly the issue, in a few sentences you warp the problem from people to their belief system and say anyone who believes X is incompatible with Y, so we must wage war back on them (effectively). Anyone who I have engaged at the theological level usually has very little to support their understanding.

People who are terrorists are either vengeful, depressed, hopeless, or angry.

People who go to rallys and instigate problems (whether that be Israeli support rallys in Malmo or G8 rallys in Toronto) feel hopeless (at core), and are angry. Often they are the unemployed (70% unemployment). The things they are angry about are often real, not imaginary, but they may not be effective.

I might say that the Fed is a blight to America, but I would not be effective in waging "Jihad" against Ben Bernanke.

Re: Even the Swedes and Danish are getting in on the hate act

zack,

"Jihad is not about making war on anyone who does not believe."

Apparently, like most terms there is more than one definition for Jihad.

"A wide range of opinions exist about the exact meaning of jihad. Muslims use the word in a religious context to refer to three types of struggles: an internal struggle to maintain faith, the struggle to improve the Muslim society, or the struggle in a holy war."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jihad
--------
"Anyone who I have engaged at the theological level usually has very little to support their understanding."

How many actual terrorists are you likely to engage in a theological discussion?

Obviously, as 9/11 and attacks in London, France and other European locations demonstrated — somebody out there is using the "holy war" part of the above.

One may also assume there are multiple reasons for attending or participating a rally. Life is never so simple.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Syndicate content