Morning Call [8:32am ET] There are basically two reasons why I believe in conspiracy theories. Firstly, it’s because I can. I don’t give a hoot what people think of me, referring to me as an eccentric and all, because I push myself to think out of the box, needing to discover truths that networks of people try to hide as they spin the market for their profit and our loss. The bigger reason, however, is that I know that profit is a great motivator and the bigger the profit goal the bigger the network organization needed to make it happen, and that there will people in and around that organization with a vested interest to make it succeed regardless of the truth, especially as truth is such a nebulous concept.
In 2009 I received reports from independent and objective medical researchers asserting that swine flu was no pandemic, but in reality was just another flu that needed to be addressed by health practitioners. What happened though was that pharmaceutical manufacturers and clinical researchers saw it as an opportunity to profit by accessing taxpayer funds just as the banks had done at about the same point in time.
And just as the commercial and investment banks needed complicit leaders in positions of political and central bank authority, and bought them off, the same was done in the healthcare field with the World Health Organization (WHO), which declared the H1N1 Pandemic even without evidence to support such a claim.
WHO has now declared the H1N1 Pandemic has ended. But the fact is that honest people knew many months ago there was never any evidence of its existence. Today’s front page headline article in the National Post boldly states: WHO cancels its false alarm.
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/08/11/kevin-libin-who-cancels-i...
I think people should be arrested and prosecuted for what they have done here. Many children died not of H1N1 but as a consequence of the vaccines they were forced to take.
I resent the multiple intrusions of the State into our lives, always with the presumption that government knows best. We know it doesn’t. But what I really find offensive is the cover-up by government for profit-seeking private interest groups. People on the inside get paid off to do these things and, yes, they should be prosecuted as criminals.
There is a massive cost of these phony health scares, as noted in the National Post article:
Thirteen months ago, the WHO raised the swine flu threat to a Level 6 pandemic alert, the highest possible. “It is all of humanity that is under threat,” warned Margaret Chan, the WHO director-general. The organization projected millions of souls might be struck down by the virus; the WHO’s assistant director-general drew comparisons to the Spanish Flu, which had wiped out upwards of 20 million people by 1919… It quickly became apparent that H1N1 would be nothing like that. And never will be. The WHO says this is now just another “seasonal influenza.” As those bugs go, it appears a milder strain. More common varieties kill 250,000 to 500,000 people worldwide every year. The total confirmed death toll of the Great Swine Flu Pandemic: 18,000.
…in 2005, the WHO predicted 150 million dead from the H5N1 Avian Flu, though the confirmed toll never reached even 100; the Global Health Council anticipated the 2003 SARS outbreak wiping out 60 million lives, but the final tally ended up below 800… In every case, people and economies have been more afflicted by contagious panic — closed borders, travel bans, shuttered schools and businesses, edgy consumers, mass livestock culls, and billions spent by taxpayers on protection programs — than by contagious disease.
WHO directly, and I think deliberately, helped enrich pharmaceutical companies and clinical research organizations at the taxpayers’ expense. I think there should be a pay-back. At the very least, these organizations, including governments and central banks are losing their authority and will have to earn our trust in the future.
Yesterday and this morning, the central banks of the US and UK reported that the economic growth rates of the so-called recovery are slowing, which has caused the US Dollar to strengthen. This morning, as the Dollar continues to rally, equity markets in Europe, and equity futures and precious metals prices in New York are weak. Elliott Wave’s Robert Prechter opines that the rally in equity prices is over. It’s hard to disagree, but we’ll have to watch for technical support levels to be taken out. From observing high prices get hit with selling late in yesterday’s session, I’d have to agree that this stumble could become a fall. We’ll have to see if the Bears enter the picture here.
Precious metals were weaker earlier, but seem to have come back a bit.
Have a good one.
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
As usual Mr. Market operates according to his wristwatch, doing his best to outwit the majority of traders, leaving most standing on the platform as the train pulls away from the station. After trudging upward for the past 40 days the little engine that could finally ran out of fuel as it tried mightily to scale the last peak, careening down the slippery slope back down the hill.
The S&P easily sliced through key support at 1107 on the opening, intraday rallies practically nonexistent, Bulls forced to hit any resting bids to mitigate losses. With the equity markets closing near the worst level of the day (S&P-2.82%) Bears will be stalking any early morning strength eager to establish new shorts targeting S&P 1065 at a minimum.
Once ascending wedges are broken to the downside, prices normally fall quickly back to the point of origin, in this case S&P 1010. Stops can now be placed at a variety of levels depending on one’s timeframe and risk profile; the 20-day moving average (1104-ish), the underbelly of the uptrend line off the July lows broken today (roughly 1115 and rising), or just above the June highs (1131).
Since the May flash crash low there have been three rallies, each with lower highs signaling distribution, setting the stage for a potentially panicky decline if the July lows are violated. Interestingly, the down trend line off the April 26 highs will come in around 1045 in a few days, a former support zone, a logical spot for shorts to book some profits.
Although the VIX (+13.5%) was obviously bid up today, the fear gauge peaked early in the morning, even though the market continued to fall to lower lows, meaning investors were reacting rather cavalierly to the carnage Wednesday. No sign of capitulation means this decline has further to run.
All and all an ugly session unless you were donning Bear attire; we anticipate lower prices over the near term and will look to sell into rallies if and when they materialize.
Good luck to all of us.
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Comments
Dollar strengthens
Hi Bill,
can the $SPX and others go up with a stronger dollar?
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
Not much on tap so far:
INTC - PT Lowered from $34 to $32 @ Stifel Nicolaus. Buy
Eccentric
Bill says:
"I don’t give a hoot what people think of me, referring to me as an eccentric and all, because I push myself to think out of the box"
eccentric as compared to what? as compared to commonplace, banal and useless (if not crook) like bubble-heads of bubble-visions?
You're no eccentric in my books, I suspect many like me have the same opinion of and regard for you, how can you be eccentric when you freely share so much?
10 Ten things you need to know before the market opens
http://www.businessinsider.com/10-things-august-11...
I guess this stuff is relevant?
What does this mean for the US? Germany?
http://www.businessinsider.com/business-investment...
Re: Dollar strengthens
gforce,
Stronger Dollar will almost certainly mean lower $SPX -- at least until economic growth picks up again. See notes below on the FOMC concerns about growth
FOMC Statement: As seen by Credit Suisse
The FOMC statement language was significantly more dovish than that released on June 23 and revealed the Committee’s increasing concern about the weakening recovery.
The Committee’s announcement that it will reinvest principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS in longer-term Treasury securities is at the minimum symbolic; at most it opens the door for a renewed round of credit easing (or something even more innovative) should economic activity slow relative to newly downgraded expectations.
This may or may not do much for the real economy, but it will continue a trend of over time embedding very low coupons in the asset structures of insurance companies, pension funds, and other longer-term balance sheets. High liability costs, inherited from the past, increasingly intersect with low yields available on assets on 10th August. This is not a prescription for financial sector health.
Re: Dollar strengthens
Bill thanks,
and how will we know when growth is picking up? I am guessing the first signs will be in capital improvements and hiring of workers when able. What do you think will be the first signs and will it come from China?
It is off to work for me.
Thanks again.
Cara 100 Update
DIS - estimates were raised through 2011 at Jefferies. Company is seeing better Media Networks growth and advertising demand at ESPN. Buy rating and $41 price target.
TEF - Telefonica upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
WHO Pandemic Farse
Bill, I can't thank you enough for providing the facts about the falsehood of H1N1 when you did. Everyone around here was in a panic to get the vaccine & I spread the word to all I could to hold off until more information surfaced. I think it saved a few people from harm. All those who profited from this should be prosecuted. I know most of us are sheeple, but we at least deserve the best shepards, not wolves.
Thanks again for all you do for us everyday.
A Bear Strategy
Buy VXX and SDS. Wait until SPX drops down to 1090 and keep raising stops to lock in profits.
Re: WHO Pandemic Farse
It's not just Pharmaceuticals. Shyam Kolkevar, a leading heart surgeon from University College Hospital, London recently called for butter to be banned in the UK. Those comments were issued by a public relations company which works for Unilever which just so happens to make Flora margarine. Why can't we just moderate our intake of saturated fat by not eating quite so much butter? Why is it necessary that we should switch to margarine, a product which contains food colouring, deodorant and traces of the toxic heavy metal nickel which is used as a catalyst during its production.
GMCR at april highs
following some news. Safer sector.
Stealth QE
It's been eye opening following the daily Treasury statements as posted by Kaimu. If exponentially increasing expenditures over steadily decreasing revenues equals money created out of thin air to spend equals quantitative easing, then we've witnessed that for a long time. You won't find it reported on CNBC(not that I watch that junk) or the nightly business watch. Yesterday, Obama signed off on another $26B to bail out states. That sounds alot like easing as well, after all, where is the money coming from? Might as well ease to infinity. It's an easy way to stay in power. By the time everybody catches on, he'll be deep into his second term.
The question is how do we protect hard earned assets from confiscation? Discipline, follow prices and act on what you see. Oh, and buy some protection. Thanks for the suggestion Papa.
Re: WHO Pandemic Farse
Mark H,
I felt the same way about the Y2k panic. The problem is the vagueness of it all. Even after virtually nothing happened when 2000 rolled by — "They" can say, "But it would have if we hadn't acted." Try to refute that!
Again with the bailouts — same thing — "But it would have if we hadn't acted."
This morning Bill in pointing out the global flu scare said,
"I think there should be a pay-back. At the very least, these organizations, including governments and central banks are losing their authority and will have to earn our trust in the future."
I too think the payback is called for.
However, the problem is "They" (whether WHO or any other "authority") know they don't need our trust. The number of entities operating and controlling our lives are a faceless and free-wheeling force. We can't vote them out, can't cut their pay, in some cases can't even tell who they are.
We we do have a name — Paulson, Rubin, Frank — "They" control those with the responsibility to punish and we are totally impotent.
Like cock roaches — you ever can't get them all.
Tricky gaps + low volume = be cautious
...Working both to the up and down side.
With the void of volume the past few weeks/months, it will take a avalanche of volume to get me to bring back my chips to the casino on wall st.
even today's gap down is on relatively low volume. i dont trust it just yet. there is no bonus for being in too early.
Re: Mauldin on The Problem with Pensions (from yesterday)
lessmore -
"Public employees in general are being attacked for the abuses of a few, e.g., the 46 year old ex-cops on a bloated life time pensions and the politicians who benefit from special laws that enable them to retire rich."
The bigger problem is that public jobs have recently exceeded manufacturing jobs in the U.S. with service sector jobs well above both. The productive capacity of the U.S. economy is trending in all the wrong directions. Time for massive layoffs to balance those pension ladened public budgets. Can't have it both ways. Public unions will lose clout just like the UAW, Teamsters, and the U.S.S.R. because its leadership pushed greed too far. It's not about a few fat cat pensioners. That's just sensationalized journo crappola.
Cheers.
Credit Conspiracy
(This is a repeat post with additional infomation on credit privacy)
WARNING: Your personal information is being shared with marketing research firms who pay very little for this priviledge. The RIMM privacy texting issues in UAE are the tip of the iceberg. Much about your personal life is already out of the bag.
The biggest concern of all is your own credit report being sold. Yes, sold!
I urge everyone to OPT OUT of having their credit information shared with strangers: http://www.optoutprescreen.com (CLICK NO FOR THE PAID SERVICES) You can do this online for five years or download the paper form and opt out permanently. If you miss the credit card offers in the mail and phone calls offering low interest rates and auto glass deals you can opt back in at any time. The problem with anyone having access to your credit is you have no control over how many times the credit bureaus sell your 'hot' report especially if you have good credit. Our Federal Reserve justifies the reselling of your credit report in the name of consumer choice. You pay for the privacy of a credit report online or via your mortgage broker but once that report exists it's a hot item. Complete with your account numbers and balances and scores for anyone with a line to the bureaus to see. They may even call pretending to be 'your loan processor' and ask for more information to complete your 'loan file'.
Also when you apply for a bank account, car loan or mortgage also check the OPT OUT boxes offering third party services, etc.
(More about credit issues here: http://www.netcredit.blogspot.com)
Some Luddites may be safe having no online life. However: if you have a google blog (check) a facebook account (check) 'friend' or 'like' the comments and pages of your friends (check) make comments on a public commmunity (check) write articles on an industry blog site (check) sign up for news alerts on a media resouce (check) create a loggin for any website (check) buy things online (check) keep a shopping cart open on Amazon (check) bid on or list items on Ebay (check) sign up yourself or your company on any business networks (triple check) apply for jobs or post your a resume online (check) pay for your business license onlne (check) pay your taxes online (check) change your address with the post office or library online (check) sponsor events using an event management online tool (check) cruise the internet for sales (check) search real estate listings online (check) read various news sources on the internet (check) sign up for news alerts from those sources (check) dare to sign a petition or forward it to friends online (check) write a letter to your congress bods online (check) speak in a public forum on C-span (check) post your family photos with captions on a free photo share site (check) take a free personality test online (check) watch videos on YouTube (check) download music (check) or subscribe to a particular group or cause online (check) YOU are one of the most understood and studied creatures on this planet. How's that spam inbox working for you?
At least I get fewer Viagra offers now.
Re: WHO Pandemic Farse
Grym,
Just to be clear, I'm not anti-vaccine, because I know countless lives are saved each year by vaccinating people with chronic respiratory disease against seasonal influenza. What I am against are the conflicts of interests which exist between the pharmaceutical companies and those who make the decisions. This can and does lead to overly pessimistic forecasts being made.
They're called QUANGOs over here and it's rare to hear the term being used in anything other than a derogatory fashion.
Btw, nice tagline!!
Treasury Budget
To be released today at 2:00 EST
Here is the pre-release info:
http://tiny.cc/do51t
Of note on the graph are the Jan, April, June and Sept months when tax payments are received. See how those months for 2009 and 2010 compare in relation to 2007 and 2008.
Morning Comment
Bill;
Interesting comments this morning. It feels like the mid 70's, where's Lyndon LaRouche and his concerns about the Trilateral Commission and the other conspiracies ?
Public Pensions
Here's an interesting summation of the legal battle over state pensions now underway:
http://www.stateline.org/live/details/story?conten...
Remember when UAL had an employee buyout and installed its union bosses in all the board seats? The newly minted unionized board, of course, ran up employee wages and benefits to the moon causing the whole airline industry to follow and made all the airlines insolvent. Public sector unions are in the final stages of making the local and state budgets insolvent like the airlines before them.
Re: Mauldin on The Problem with Pensions (from yesterday)
Dr. Strangelove,
The point of my post is that we should be careful not to fall into a trap in which one segment of the public unjustly demonizes another. If we continue on this path our society could disintegrate. We are fragile. We have been made fragile because we have been abused by the rich and the political class and we are all feeling vulnerable. They need to create a whipping boy or even several whipping boys to relieve the pressure on themselves. They use the media expertly. We need to critically evaluate all propaganda rather than just trust and accept it, even if it is uttered by those we trust and respect. The rich class and the political class would like us to forget about the trillions of dollars they have taken from us and instead focus on a few billion dollars that one part of society gets.
I previously stated that the public pension situation is extremely complicated. This is because in many states public pensions are in lieu of Social Security as many States have taken advantage of the law that allows them to opt out of the Social Security System upon adopting a pension plan.
The public employment situation is also complicated.
I agree that unions are a problem. I suspect that most public employees would prefer to give up some benefits and wages to avoid layoffs generally and the fear of their own layoffs in particular. I suspect that many are aware of sentiments such as the one you expressed, i.e., "Time for massive layoffs to balance those pension ladened public budgets." Union officials, however, prefer layoffs because they will be re-elected by the remaining workers and their own union jobs will be vulnerable otherwise.
I am interested in factual information. You stated "that public jobs have recently exceeded manufacturing jobs in the U.S. with service sector jobs well above both." I am not challenging the statement because I do not know the facts. Do you have the percentages of public, manufacturing and service sector jobs in the US economy? If so, would you post the info? Thanks.
Re: WHO Pandemic Farse
You can read about the ongoing battle between good old butter and margarine in Michael Pollan's 'In Defense of Food'.
The lobbyists are hard at work again!
To all you eccentric kinky people
If there was ever a need or time to rail against the darkness it is here, it is now. I believe it was Martin Heidegger who wrote that, If someone comes to help me and say's, I'm only here and only want to help you, I'd run like the devil. Walk into any hospital and you'll here, patient care, patient care, uttered with the same sanctimonius tone that you'll here from your broker, this is a buying opportunity. Look around in those hospital's, people are well dressed, the pecking order is broadcast loud and clear. The disparity is the same as any fortune 500 company. The information is controlled. Don't believe the information is controlled. Work in one and try to bring up this web site on one of their computers. Try to discuss investing in an open forum. The good Dr. makes between 15 to 20 times what an average salary say $40,000.00 per. Not quite brokerage or banking, 50 times or more, but pile in some benefits that you'll never here about. And you want to take on the the lobby for the AMA, good luck. Of course, ah yes, success. Find me a plastic surgeon in L.A. driving or buying a used car. How can you have health care when your life savings will go to pay your heart or cancer bill with your insurance premiums paid. Just remember all you kinky eccentric people, insulin shock therapy and prefontal lobotomy is here to help us and narmalize things for us. After all, we are only here to help with patient care.
Re: Tricky gaps + low volume = be cautious
Are you rotating between the 3X ETF in these market moves this week like TZA and TNA, FAZ and FAS, VXX and XXV ..etc in and out day trading them as they should be for?
Re: To all you eccentric kinky people
Physician pay...
Just an FYI...maybe it's different in other states...
Background:
I'm board certified in three specialties (medicine, respiratory, critical care) and am director of the ICU, respiratory section, and was president of the medical staff at one point (a two year term)
I take three weeks of vacation (at most) a year, am now working every third weekend (61 consecutive hours) and usually one night on call a week. I probably average at least 70 hours a week working overall and am in the hospital usually at 7 or 7:15 each day.
During the last five years I've AVERAGED less than 200,000 a year income...and the trend has been steadily down. Police officers in Massachusetts can make more money than physicians by doing 'duties' near construction, etc...which is fine...just saying.
I don't own a suit and have a polo shirt on and some pants I bought at BJ's Wholesale. I drive that luxury vehicle (Honda Fit, 16K new), don't have any second home or whatever) and coach youth basketball 3-5 days a week...and I do the cable TV play-by-play for the local HS volleyball team and color analysis for the basketball team cable games.
I've put four kids through college (Harvey Mudd, BU, and two at Dartmouth) during the past 11 years without any financial aid...that total cost about 600,000 over the past decade.
Am I fairly compensated? I don't really know, but to paint all doctors (or any other profession) with the same brush...fair, maybe not so much. I haven't seen any docs sleeping on grates, but at least in Massachusetts, you don't get rich being a doctor.
Re: Tricky gaps + low volume = be cautious
Uh, I'd like to differ. The euro being off 2.29% is A Sign That There Is Trouble. Gold just jumped off a cliff, dropping 10 points in in 10 minutes, 12000 contracts traded. I think this market (Euro, gold, equities, bonds) were bid up in expectations of Fed QE. Fed jawboning drove things up, it went way too high, and now the payback is a bitch, as they say. "You're gonna get a really special christmas present", your mom says. You wait four weeks, time enough to allow yourself to imagine all sorts of amazing things - you open the box, and it's a tee shirt from Ross.
Of course, 20 of our 30 points were lost as a gap down open. Why allow the little fish to join in the fun when you can collect most of the gains yourself in asia/europe over night.
Re: To all you eccentric kinky people
tmgm
I always think its sad when people box in all medical professionals as an example of overpay and excess. About two months ago, I had to get a hip resurfacing to correct a painful arthritic condition that was growing worse and worse, and I am a fairly young guy, so this is not a normal condition.
There are 2, yes 2, orthopedic surgeons within a 350 mile radius who are experienced and capable of performing this procedure. I had to put my life and long-term welfare into the hands of my surgeon and his medical staff and hope and pray that the procedure worked and alleviated the pain. Luckily, I am about 6 weeks past and feeling amazing. I now have a metal ball on my right hip which was once ravaged with arthritis.
The point is, some of these people are really the experts. Many of them took huge risks in the way of student loan debt for medical school, spending many years studying and learning from top doctors, and also requiring natural skill and ability. That's not even to mention the burden of liability insurance. In my mind, the trained medical professionals who are charged with taking another person's life into their own hands and performing or assiting in very difficult surgery are worth every penny.
Show me a banker who ever saved someone's life or prevented them from physical pain.
Re: To all you eccentric kinky people
Ron,
I was hoping that a Dr. would reply and you did. What about the cost of medical school, the 100 hour work weeks for $38,000 during residency and then the years to get board certified. Oh and the debts that are incurred along the way to be of service to others.
Re: To all you eccentric kinky people
I just got back from my barber. He had heart surgery 8 years ago. His insurance deductible is $7,500 and his monthly premium is $1,000. The cost of his meds has caused hi, to run up a $30,000 credit card loan balance.
His customers are either having their wives cut their hair or just letting it grow longer and his income is half what it used to be. He is now driving five hours to work at another shop alternating weeks (the owner a friend of his, is on chemo and can't work for a week after a treatment.)
My former family doctor quit delivering babies some time back due to the cost of liability insurance.
My own major medical policy paid $1400 of a $14,000 bill (my only claim after 20 years of premiums) then, raised my premium 457% in two years.
Self-employed people pay through the nose. Many other people are just now discovering what their benefits have really been worth.
The new ObamaCare bill will give insurance companies millions of new clients from birth on.
I'd say insurance is what needs oversight and cuts, not doctors.
Re: Mauldin on The Problem with Pensions (from yesterday)
My mom - 35 years as a teacher, retired with a PERS pension of 32k per year in San Diego. If she hadn't been a good saver and investor all these years, life would be a bit challenging. Now we wonder if PERS will be solvent 5 years from now...and wonder just how much the administrators of the school district have taken home in pensions. She always said that administration was where the money was, but she loved teaching too much to go there. Not all folks on pensions are greedy money-sucking scumbags, some are life-long teachers like my mom.
I agree that "something should be done" - something must be done, because things are unsustainable. Pensions are one example - just one example on a very long list of unsustainable practices that our society engages in. And my mom will cope with the changes as best as she can.
Re: To all you eccentric kinky people
Grym, I couldn't agree more. We should be focusing on the insurance industry (and tort reform).
I hope the high costs for doctors don't run off many more. It's people like Ron Sen, that dedicate their life to helping others, that improve our society and make longevity possible.
As far as pay goes, maybe we should start with the HB&B CEOs, sitting at the top of the corporate pyramids.
Silver dollar sells for $1.2M - now THAT's precious metal !
http://www.csmonitor.com/Money/new-economy/2010/08...
Sacrifice
The people who are making the sacrifices are our servicemen and women in some far-off terrible places and everyday folk who are working 2 or 3 jobs just trying to make ends meet.
The argument about tax cuts for the richest is a smokescreen in my opinion. If you want austerity, you have to pay for it ;)
Re: Mauldin on The Problem with Pensions (from yesterday)
davefairtex -
"Not all folks on pensions are greedy money-sucking scumbags, some are life-long teachers like my mom."
I'm referring to the managers of those pensions that fell prey to the Wall Streeters. Allowing pensions to increase based on fixed assumptions instead of cost-of-living adjustments defies economic cycles and cannot be sustained. Your Ma may lose her pension because these managers used the wrong assumptions when structuring these plans with the greedy Wall St cabal.
Can anyone find that chart of historic U.S. jobs showing service-manufacturing-public sector trends? I cannot find it for the life of me.
Cheers.
Re: To all you eccentric kinky people
Old joke.
A doctor whose wife was out of town visiting relatives was forced to take an afternoon off to meet a plumber who was called to repair a leak under the kitchen sink. The plumber spent about 40 minutes under the sink. He handed the doc a bill. The doctor exclaimed 'hell man. I'm a doctor and I don't make this kind of money.' The plumber replied 'I didn't make this kind of money when I was a doctor either.'
I guess if the doc in question was a urologist, you could argue that they were similar businesses...
To the above.
Well Dr. come on out to Seattle. You could do much better here. We have some very shrewd and competent lobbyists in our capitol from the health care and insurance industry who collaborate very effectively and could assist your nursing staff with inequities in your departments. I have had four very close friends all pass the past few months from the big C. Only one had the guts to say, this industry is not going to milk and drain my last resource. So what makes a conspiracy? Is it possible that the lobbyist from one idustry might know the lobbyist from another, is it possible there's a grape vine. I could tell you that one of them had countless surgeries up until two day's before the end. There is no doubt that pissing about what someone else makes is fruitless, we are all so very deserving. The questions that for this industry that has to be pounded on, since it has the highest rate of increase of any in the nation, and has more potential than others in the name of patient care, or is that code for money, to bankrupt a great many of us, is, is it policing itself effectively? Does it report itself effectively or does do so in way's that might be similar to the Fed? I know from first hand experience, that people do care, but there is something rotten in Denmark.
Bill and his Conspiracy Theories
Bill,
You are in good company. Apparently Richard Russell has now joined the ranks, who in past has derided what he called conspiracy theories.
Last week, he wrote after Friday's close: "Who's running this market, and why and how? I guess we'll never know, but it's obvious (at least to me) that large interests don't want the market down, and they don't want gold up."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-of-2008-win...
SHUFFLERS
ALOHA!!
America is an America of "monopolies". The two biggest being the political and monetary monopolies of the DEM/REP and the US FED(a private cartel of bailed out banks). The monopoly concept extends further out into unions for labor and the AMA for doctors and the COMEX for pricing gold. So many monopolies have produced what we see today, which is financial ruin and the dismantling of the Middle Class, the source of wealth and OPM. By definition a monopoly stiffles competition and choices(free markets). All I ever had to do is hire an IBEW electrician. I, the sole risk taker, as a business owner, had no choice as to what I could pay this employee. I had no choice as to what sort of medical coverage and pension I was forced to pay for and I had no choice as to the employees skills or even work ethic as all those choices were made outside of my control. I do not mind paying top dollar for a top performer but I paid top dollar for a less than average performer. When your boss can bend more pipe and pull more wire than the "trained IBEW expert journeyman" something is wrong with the system. Not to mention my business partner and I were at least 10-15 years older than the average IBEW journeyman on our jobs. We were forced to not bid jobs for one year in order to exit the Union and return to our non-Union status. We did so and once we were non-Union became even more successful than before. We dumped the boat anchor around our necks ... the Union. California taxpayers have no idea how much more expensive Public Works jobs are once the Unions have seized controlled of labor and literally dictate to the US Congress what prevailing wages will be set at for the entire country, not just California. Imagine paying a high school educated worker over $100,000USD per year with benefits for literally doing the same electrical stuff you do when you do a home improvement. Some of it is more industrial in nature, which requires greater skill, but a vast majority of that work is menial labor at best, like installing a florescent light fixture, not a whole lot different from one in your own kitchen, except instead of 1 or 2, its 1000.
Notice that it is the "paper shufflers" of the industries mentioned that are being paid the most for the least effort. Whether it is a high school administrator or CEO of Goldman Sachs, neither produce any real wealth. They shuffle paper in a gigantic system created by an omnipotent government that has its hands in every slice of life on the planet! These politicians we keep voting into power literally have the power to send your kids off to a foreign country and die for oil reserves.
"Full government control of all activities of the individual is virtually the goal of both national parties."- Ludwig Von Mises, Economic Freedom and Interventionism, America 1957
The above quote, even today, some 53 years after the quote was written, will be considered by many to just be "conspiracy". In fact there is a tendency for Americans to label anything that would upset them and change the status quo as a "conspiracy". Yet in all my life I have never seen so many people out of work and broke but come November the sheeple will flock in and vote Republican because they think that's "now" the lesser evil. When Obama was running Republicans were not the lesser evil, the Democrats were. To me its like political ping-pong watching voters shift allegiance at the voting booth. Even at this blog I was told RON PAUL would not win so the best choice was Obama because he was the lesser evil and he was for CHANGE! YES WE CAN!! Sounds great until you see who was running his finances on his campaign. Now I hear that the Queen Of Economics at UC Berkeley has quit the Obama Economic Team, her majesty Christine Rohmer, the Keynes multiplier guru! I wouldn't hire her to balance my check book! She did wonders for the US economy ... back to Berkeley! Traders have the brains not to follow the herd in a trade but when it comes to voting they completely crap out and fall right into the robotic political Stockholm Syndrome and go "Moooo!". Hummmmm??? Way to carry those hard learned trading ethics into the voting booth!
There needs to be a second American Revolution either at the voting booth or in the streets. Take your pick. Production, which is risk taking venture, and wealth, which is the successful end result of production and risk taking is being strangled to death by a government that believes it has not only the "right" to intervention, but the "expertise" to intervene. If our government truly was good at intervention then we would not see what we see today, but set expertise of intervention aside, there is no "right", not even God given, for the US government to seize control of our lives in such a pervasive manner. NO ... we the voting public naively gave politicians that "perceived" right even though such rights do not exist under the US Constitution.
I gotta go back to work ... yeah, real work, where no paper gets shuffled! Thats called wealth creation Mr. Blankfein!
its a trap, a bear trap
its a trap gang,
stocks tank on predictably bad news from the fed,
and then before you know it, they will zoom.
thats my feeling once the USD makes its little run up and the market scares people like its 2008. its all too telegraphed and for the first time in my life im actually fully long no hedges and no cash, im all in and sick of waiting around as i have this sneaking feeling the market will after an intial period of weakness climb higher, especially gold.
i may be wrong of course, but at this point i could care less, im feeling strong in my stance and will stand fast through the current short term weakness where ever it brings us because im going to leave it there for the longer haul. looking at the market less and less frequently to restore a macro view, all the short term blips were clouding my judgement.
good luck gang, and god's speed.
Re: Sacrifice
"The argument about tax cuts for the richest is a smokescreen in my opinion."
Agreed.
The theory is that they need the cuts to fund businesses which create jobs.
BS!
The truth is the jobs they are creating are out of the country like the new auto plants to be built in China and Mexico.
I'm for a flat tax on everyone. No deductions for any reason. No depletion allowances. No religious exemptions. Everyone uses the same services — police, fire roads — all should pay.
Re: Tricky gaps + low volume = be cautious
On the contrary, I have zero equity positions. Not sure if you have been keeping up with my "broken record" posts but i want to see consecutive days of exceptional volume confirming a move, as well as price reaction to support and resistance.
In my view, any common sense move along with good or bad news is going to be short lived.
I am watching a couple things but mainly volume and http://bit.ly/bocczL.
I am genuinely in all cash, which prob isnt maximizing my USD. But i just don't trust the markets right now. I literally removed cash from my trading accounts into savings, just so i dont get whip sawed and tempted to buy early.
Good luck
Re: Tricky gaps + low volume = be cautious
If this is the real beginning of the down leg, another 1 or 2 days confirmation wont kill me. I'll still profit later. But if i go all in now short and this gets reversed tomorrow, i would have been early and spanked.
Just my opinion and style. I don't yet have the desire or confidence to be very nimble day to day. not in this climate.
HUD Offers Interest-Free Loans to Reduce Foreclosures
Do they really ever expect a zero interest loan be repaid by no income home owners?
this is an unbelievable story of how desperate the elites have become.
If i was in a position of no income, no prospects of income, running out of unemployment checks, foreclosure, and under water, i would declare bankruptcy.
NOT take another loan. unreal!
http://bit.ly/cnef8I
In 50 yrs from now, that headline will be read in classrooms when referring to, "the Great Depression II - Just one big dip"
EDIT: i guess people can take the no interest $50k loan, and then declare bankruptcy. The poor gotta get their BMW's too!
Re: Sacrifice
Much truth there relative to large S$P companies.
Smaller ones, however, like the $RUT, $DWMI and even smaller ones such as mine are the real job creators in the USA. We effectively have no access to markets outside the US. It has shown up vividly this century.
Re: Sacrifice
George,
Yes, it is the smaller ones who we need to help stay afloat.
Instead things like the minimum wage increases and health care reform (which get the media all excited) work against the smallest companies and job creation.
Re: its a trap, a bear trap/ Bull Trap
Sorry, man. I think it's a bull trap.
FD- All cash.
Well Twiggs was looking for a $ retest of 85
here it is. Let's see if he's on the money
Re: its a trap, a bear trap/ Bull Trap
I am judging this thing by currency, mainly. The euro has had a big gap down, that MACD has rolled over with authority, and those moves aren't typically one and done, they have a certain velocity to them. Absent some astonishing news, I think the euro will continue down for a while. "a trend once in motion tends to stay in motion." That plus the removal of the expected Fed punchbowl from a market thirsty for punch should keep the market heading south as well.
And I have to say, look at how we closed - not bullish at all. Best way to get through the 50 DMA (2 points away) is to run the market down overnight, and gap lower open tomorrow.
FD: I'm net long, sadly, but with much smaller positions. I'm just watching too.
Re: its a trap, a bear trap/ Bull Trap
It took 25 trading days from the July 2 closing low to the August 9 closing high. Selloffs are much quicker so figuring on a retest by the week of August 22nd latest. Short SPY long UUP.
Buying votes Obama style
Free money for buying homes, cars, appliances and now free 2 year $50,000 loans.
Step right up and get your free money folks. This madness has to end.
$26 billion to states to prop up state and municipal jobs which their unions will kick back
a percentage to the Democratic Party coffers for the fall election.
We are in a free fall into insolvency.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Obama administration is providing $3 billion to unemployed homeowners facing foreclosure in the nation's toughest job markets.
The Treasury Department said Wednesday it will send $2 billion to 17 states that have unemployment rates higher than the national average for a year. They will use the money for programs to aid unemployed homeowners. Some of those states have already designed such programs.
Another $1 billion will go to a new program being run by the Department of Housing and Urban Development. It will provide homeowners with emergency zero-interest rate loans of up to $50,000 for up to two years.
The technicals are there for a $ bounce...
but perhaps equities are getting the short stick of the 10yr auction today and 30 yr tomorrow?
I noticed that SPY failed to push above previous resistance at about 113 on the daily. IWM however, has made a lower high on the daily. Not sure if the Russell 2000 index has the muscle to move the larger market, but it offers a stronger bear signal - in my limited understanding - than SPY. While SPY closed at 50ma support today on the daily (according to freestockcharts) IWM gapped down through 50 and 200 ma support on the daily.
I dunno. I just get the impression that the Russell 2000 is showing the way. The bearish divergence with SPY has been notable recently. Are the quants tied up in the S&P?
CSCO missed down 8% after hours.
Ouch.
http://bit.ly/dCEmxX
Nassim Taleb in Bloomberg Bizweek
Sobering advice from Mr Black Swan. Your first priority in investing is to preserve capital (net of inflation and taxes) Makes good points, worth a look.
Taleb: The problem is that citizens are being led to invest in securities they don't understand by people who themselves don't quite understand the risks involved. The stock market is probably the best thing in the world, but the true risks of the stock market are vastly greater than the representations."
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jul20...
or listen:
http://feedroom.businessweek.com/index.jsp?fr_stor...
Re: CSCO missed down 8% after hours.
I looked at the futures a little while ago and they really got hit after the market closed. Your post explains a lot of what was/is going on.
ss trust fund
Does anyone know how many dollars the SS admin. is holding in T-bonds? Or, do you know where I can find the information?
If rates ever go up this trust fund will be in big trouble.
Thanks,
Dan
Re: ss trust fund
I recall reading they have their own special (non-negotiable) bonds.
SLW Reports Q2 Earnings
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Silver-Wheaton-Repor...
Solid.
Re: CSCO missed down 8% after hours.
fyi Nikkei futures down 465 points per the finviz last 5 minutes post.
Re: its a trap, a bear trap/ Bull Trap
Anyone noticed that Euro/Jpy dropped hard shortly after 8pm EST last night, right after AH market closed at New York, taking ES with it. There isn't any news at 8pm that I could tell. Is there? Most major markets gapped down at the open. That smelled like a trick/trap/conspiracy to me.
Re: HUD Offers Interest-Free Loans to Reduce Foreclosures
Unreal is right. So is FHA 'asking' banks to forgive 10% of your principal balance if your home is underwater. We shall see who is helped by these policies. HUD and FHA are GSE's telling banks to do what....take a haircut? That will be the day.
Re: ss trust fund
ALOHA!!
According to the US Treasury the two main debt issues(securities) for Trust Funds is what they term Government Account Series(GAS). The intra-government debt transfers are called State And Local Government Series(SLGS). They do bear interest, usually at a discount to marketable US Treasuries. None of these debt securities can be purchased by the public or foreigners.
As I read the current US Treasury Statement for August 10th, it looks like there is some $191BIL in Government Account Series net debt. The SLGS and "Other" has some $25BIL worth of redemptions over issues, which I would say means the States are overdrawn ... It looks as if so far for YTD FY2010 the States and Other owe the US Treasury, in a sense.
I say in "in a sense" because the government likes to confuse us. They will swear up and down that borrowing from the Trust Funds is the same as if you took out a loan from yourself and gave yourself an IOU. In that instance it is just an account record, because how can you owe yourself? Well, I would counter to that explanation and say just like Mises does, then why bother keeping accounting records if nothing is borrowed or owed? The truth is that these Trust Funds hold payroll withholdings from many US citizens pay checks, so it is not the government that owns these Trust funds it is the "working" US Taxpayer, where the surplus is stored in a Trust Fund. The US Congress wants you to believe that the US Citizens and the US government are one in the same. Are they? If they are then try deleting all of Table III-A from the US Treasury Statements, listed as "Public Debt Transactions". Go ahead Timmy just delete that entire Table III-A, since WE THE PEOPLE are the same as the US Government. In fact go ahead and change the US Constitution to WE THE GOVERNMENT and just do away with "PEOPLE"! Make it official and amend the US Constitution. We'll only keep accounting records at the US Treasury of anyone who holds US Treasuries who is not a citizen or government of the USA. This is yet another of the many accounting frauds perpetrated on us by our own US Congress and Treasury. Those who rule over us in government really do think they own us and can do whatever they like and run up as many IOUs as they can. They believe they are justified in doing whatever is necessary in order to stay in power. It is an American Atrocity not a Dream and the reason why Jefferson, Jackson and even Eisenhower warned us that our own government, if allowed, would be our worst enemy. IF ALLOWED ... Please read the Declaration Of Independence to see what your rights are when government creates a "long train of abuses" against its citizens. Its been 100 years of abuses is that long enough yet?
Re: Dollar strengthens
Bill addressed that question which makes sense to me.
I'm just wondering how gold can go up. Obviously it did today and there was some blurb on TV about GS touting $1300. This seems mystifying. It would appear that it has to drop significantly. Presently I have no ego (i.e. no position) involved so can be completely open to any input which would be welcome.
Re: ss trust fund
Kaimu,
You have confused me.
According to Allan Sloan (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...) The balance is $2.54 TRILLION and the Social Security Administration wants to tap into it for $41 billion this year.
You did not say the same thing.
WHERE'S THE GOLD?
ALOHA!!
There used to be a commercial on TV with an old lady asking ... "Where's the BEEF?" Now we ask "Where's the GOLD?"
Here is a US Treasury link to where our gold is and what it is valued at ...
LINK: http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/current.html
Notice if you do the math that the US Treasury lists the per ounce gold value at $42.22 per troy ounce. That is slightly off what the current spot price is of $1,200USD per ounce. Why do you suppose they still have gold listed as the same price since FDR days?
If they changed the POG from $42.22 to $1200USD per ounce would that pay off the US Public Debt at $13.3TRIL USD? What is $1200 x 261,498,899.316 ounces? Don't leave off the "0.316" of an ounce there! Ummmm ... carry the six, add 26 ... its $313,798,679,179.20USD, only $314BIL USD if you round it up. If we had another 42 times gold then we would break even on the US Public Debt. Or if gold was over $50,000USD($1200 x 42) per ounce then we could sell all our gold reserves and pay back the current US Public Debt. That's crazy "conspiracy" talk though. Gold can't equal $50,000 an ounce! Instead of that crazy conspiracy talk lets just vote people into power who keep adding more and more debt, at least until I die then I won't have to worry about it any more! Just don't rock my boat right now!
Also notice where the gold is and where the majority is held. It is held in DEEP STORAGE. That terminology has been bantered about for years now since they changed it from "Bullion Reserve". Isn't it just a vault, what does the word DEEP mean? Why do they need to use the word DEEP? What was wrong with the prior classification of "Bullion Reserve"? I mean when I go over to Bank Of Hawaii and want in my safe deposit box, which is stored in the vault, I don't ask to go into the DEEP STORAGE.
Then there is this note at the bottom ...
"... which are examined annually by the Department of Treasury's Office of the Inspector General."
So the US Treasury audits itself ... hummmmm????? Why can't the GAO do it? Where's the transparency when the US Treasury audits itself? Of course the day the US Treasury allows the GAO to audit WE THE PEOPLE'S gold is the day when the head of the GAO will be an ex-Goldman Sachs CEO.
Oh my GOD ... he's got another CONSPIRACY THEORY going here!!! I can't take it!!! AHHHHH ...
Re: WHERE'S THE GOLD?
"Here is a US Treasury link to where our gold" emphasis on "our" what part's mine cause I want it. God knows I've paid more than my share of taxes for it.
Re: ss trust fund
ALOHA!!
Lessmore said ... "You did not say the same thing."
I did not know I was supposed to say the same thing ... Tell Allan to call me so we can get on the same page! HA!!
I tried to get the US Treasury Daily Statement link to work but all I got was a 500 Internal Server Error message. Maybe their server is down!
All I was doing is reporting what was on TABLE III-A Public Debt Transactions of the US Treasury Statement for August 10th. On there, as near as I remember there were something like $57TRIL in "debt issues" and less in "debt redemptions". I did the math and it came out to around $191BIL USD. That is not the total Social Security Trust debt as this was just YTD for FY2010. What happens is if there is more debt issued than redemptions then the deficit is recorded on the last line item in TABLE III-A "net debt balance", then that amount gets added to the overall US Public Debt Table. I think it is TABLE V. Last I recall the total net debt balance YTD was somewhere around $1.4TRILUSD for FY2010.
Maybe I did the math wrong, but right now I cannot verify it until the US Treasury server is back on line.
What or where does Allan Sloan gets his info from? I don't know as all I do is go direct to the US Treasury Tables that they publish on the FMS website.
Now while you are still confused try to figure out how DEBT is an asset. When the US Treasury issues debt in Table III-A it gets deposited into the Federal Reserve Account and it is listed on the asset side of the Statement and is reported with tax revenues and income from Medicare Premiums and the likes. Yet the US Treasury pays interest on that debt, as it is not getting interest income, its paying interest. It would be like you getting a credit card and charging on that card to pay your bills yet you list the credit card as an asset that pays you income along with your W-2 income on your 1040 tax form. Does anyone here list credit card debt, the amount you charged for the year, as income on their 1040? Why does the US Treasury list debt as income? When did debt become an asset? Maybe I should just shut up and not give the IRS any new ideas of making credit card charges income! I guess it is "income" if you never intend to pay it back ... AH HAH!!
Re: WHERE'S THE GOLD?
ALOHA!!
Yep George...
Got any answers to this question I asked about $42.22USD per ounce?
"Why do you suppose they still have gold listed as the same price since FDR days?"
Re: WHERE'S THE GOLD?
Kaimu, I must admit I've always been puzzled about why gold is still at that same price. Do you have an answer for us?
Re: WHERE'S THE GOLD?
"Why do you suppose they still have gold listed as the same price since FDR days?" - kaimu
So that, like FDR, Bernanke can announce a higher price and put the breaks on a soaring dollar .... but unlike FDR, Ben must bring back at least a partial gold standard, say 10% to hold off a run on all that deep storage paper receipt stuff. It will happen when the IMF or OPEC or China make official a partially backed currency with PM for the oil trade.
Did the FED blow it...puff
Zero Hedge things there is enough air to increase the buoyancy of the market of stocks.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/did-fed-blow-it
Re: WHERE'S THE GOLD?
Howdee!!
Kaimu,
(I played golf once with Minnie Pearl in the late 50's)
There has been much talk over historical cost accounting versus market value accounting. Company balance sheets have had to reflect the latter since I graduated in the 70's and from your article I would presume that the government has chosen to not change it's standards.
In the long run, however, does it matter?
Re: Dollar strengthens
Hey George,
I think gold can go up for a couple of reasons:
1) Flight to real monetary asset when financial system craters
2) Short squeeze
I give #1 a good chance in the next few years. We'll find out in a few months on #2 if CFTC rules on position limits like a sane person. Don't give that much of a chance.
Oh yeah, maybe another reason, or two. Dollars have been, and are, being printed like crazy. I've been racking my brain over how to fix this mess we're in for a couple of years and have come to the stark realization that there's no clear solution. Until we figure out how to spark real economic growth without printing a gazillion dollars, I look for gold to increase. Maybe even accelerate if B.O., Timmy G. & Ben B. stay in power much longer.
Or you could just call me gold(and silver) crazy. I'm good with that.
Is this a clarion call or what?
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/62140030/
" As the computers and trend followers chop themselves to bits "
per Fleck tonight ( courtesy of the Lord of the Dark Matter ) in regards to expected volitility of even more magnitude than the past year.. I have been thinking along these lines as to why ' The Crash ' can happen, limit down or not. No one I know has committed new capital to the markets in the past 1 1/2 years, myself included. Fleck made a point in 2000 about how the bid-ups in the ' kinky ' stocks are one signal of the beginning of the end.. 'nough said on that one. Liquidation is not a bad thing...
Re: Dollar strengthens
Hey 4ever,
I just want to point out again that dollars aren't being printed. Credit is being issued. Credit can collapse. At that point, 100 dollar bills would be far more useful for getting around money. Okay and a gun permit, which I have.
Gee it's late where is that post close report so I'll know what to do tomorrow. The Nikkei is at 9100 and with a 1000 point tether that implies Dow 10,100 on the open. Lions, tigers and bears oh my.
Will the USA be thrown into the VAT?
http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/10/news/economy/VAT_t...
It gets scarier and scarier
GDP and other assorted monikers could be going down.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gdp-could-be-revi...
Re: " As the computers and trend followers chop themselves ...
We rides de eskerlater up and we takes de ellivater down. Volitility is a good thing. It makes your heart race. It causes you to focus and measure the length of the ping pong table. It will also attempt to steal your capital.
The market is made up of foxes and hedgehogs. The fox is cunning. The fox is tricky and knows many things. But the hedgehog knows one BIG thing.
Be the hedgehog.
Re: ss trust fund
Kaimu,
Ok, I have no quarrel if you question Allan Sloan's source, so here is a Social Security Administration source which states that the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Trust Fund "Assets grew from about $47 billion at the end of December 1986 to about $2,604 billion ($2.6 trillion) by the end of June 2010," which is close to Sloan's $2.54 trillion.
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/assets.html
I do question your posting numbers that appear to be unrelated to the asset balance when the balance thereof was the original question asked. It would have been better to state that you do not have the fund's balance information rather than to post confusing numbers.
Your thread regarding debt as an asset is not persuasive. Social security beneficiaries have a valid claim to benefits backed by the $2.6 trillion in the trust fund. The government will not default on that obligation regardless of what label you put on the trust fund balance.
Wall Street regards the fund balance as a viable asset. As I recall, during Clinton's last term as President Wall Street was lobbying hard to gain control of at least part of the fund and I believe they might have succeeded but for Bill Clinton's involvement with Monica Lewinski. Thanks Monica we owe you.
On Manipulation and Financial sense
Just imagine in 1929 the amount of money required to move the market even ten percent:
http://financialsense.com/contributors/tim-w-wood-...
Caveman market
It only just now occured to me the reason for such dour markets mid august. It's the apex of the perseid meteor shower! The firefly sky makes the peasants trimble with fear. Better to hunker down in their caves than risk the rath of the Gods. I wonder if Prechter has thought about this indicator...
Just pondering the savers dilema. What price income now you cuckold sheeple. Caesar's wife is a harlot. The current interplanetary super bond bubble will be marveled at in decades to come. More and more debt with a declining rate of interest is like the dog who didn't bark. The issuer is the buyer of last resort. The dog is going round and round and eating its own tail.
Just a thought.
Futures 1:30am - red is fashionable again
S&P -1.90 / -0.18%
Level 1,083.10
Fair Value 1,087.31
Difference -4.21
Nasdaq -60.50 / -3.19%
Level 1,836.00
Fair Value 1,844.36
Difference -8.36
Dow -39.00 / -0.38%
Level 10,298.00
Re: WHERE'S THE GOLD?
ALOHA!!
Its basic Money 101 ... First for the US Treasury to relist their gold reserves from $42.22 per ounce to $1200 per ounce would be admitting to the World that the USD, the World Reserve Currency, and global fiat currencies have no store of value and hence can only be used as a medium of exchange only so long as trust in the currency still exists. In essence like FDR did he removed the USA from the gold standard then confiscated US citizens gold. Prior to doing that he and Congress had to declare a Banking Emergency. Emergencies are always a great political tool to steal your Rights and Freedom. He then declared the gold price at $35 per ounce up from $20.67, so he devalued the USD, meaning it took more USD to buy an ounce of gold. By doing this the US Treasury could now use an ounce of gold to pay off $35 worth of debt from WW1 instead of only $20.67 worth. Not so great for holders of US Debt as they got less gold in exchange, but more dollars. Under a gold standard you want your currency to buy more gold not less.
Technically then you can see we are still under a pseudo gold standard. That's how I see it. If the US Treasury were truly off the gold standard then there should be no reason our gold reserves could not be booked at $1200 an ounce instead of $42.22. Is gold really a barbarous relic? If so then raise the value of our gold reserves then. Why is the US Treasury so archaic in its book values? If not then open the US Treasury reserves at Fort Knox and the US FED NY and sell all that worthless and barbarous gold for $42.22 an ounce. Imagine that unruly crowd! If it is truly only worth $42.22 then what good is it? It won't even pay the interest on the US Debt for a month. Plus the US Treasury would save millions in DEEP STORAGE costs.
When FDR confiscated US citizens gold under Executive Order #6102, which was amended and revoked by Executive Order #6260, and the US Treasury paid each citizen $20.67. So essentially an ounce of gold was worth $20.67 as prescribed by law. Afterward FDR raised the price of an ounce of gold to $35. Now the US Treasury claims a value of $42.22 per ounce.
ORIGINAL EXECUTIVE ORDER #6102 ...
LINK: http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102
Notice that silver was never mentioned in the Order.
Now we tend to be money brainwashed and the first thing people say when the price of gold goes up is, "Hey, look how much more USD you get now!" What they should be saying is, "The price of gold did not go up the value of the dollar went down!" The price of gold is nothing more than a C WORD warning light on your monetary dashboard!
Re: ss trust fund
ALOHA!!
Lessmore, you are right I should have clarified that the "debt" I was speaking of was "marketable" US Debt and not the "non-marketable" stuff that you speak of in the SS Trust Fund. I was just offering a completely different issue of US Treasury assets and liabilities as compared to what WE THE PEOPLE must abide by on our Balance Sheets. By the way, I've never filed a NON-GAAP 1040 either!
Futures 3:30am
S&P +0.50 / +0.05%
Level 1,085.50
Fair Value 1,087.31
Difference -1.81
Nasdaq -4.50 / -0.24%
Level 1,833.25
Fair Value 1,844.36
Difference -11.11
Dow +7.00 / +0.07%
Level 10,344.00
Futures 5:30am
S&P -0.30 / -0.03%
Level 1,084.70
Fair Value 1,087.31
Difference -2.61
Nasdaq -5.75 / -0.31%
Level 1,832.00
Fair Value 1,844.36
Difference -12.36
Dow +24.00 / +0.23%
Level 10,361.00
Not sure of the logic...
"LOS ANGELES (AP) -- The number of U.S. homes lost to foreclosure surged in July, another sign lenders are moving quicker to take back properties from homeowners behind in payments.
Lenders repossessed 92,858 properties last month, up 9 percent from June and an increase of 6 percent from July 2009, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.
Banks have stepped up repossessions this year to clear out the backlog of bad loans. July makes the eighth month in a row that the pace of homes lost to foreclosure has increased on an annual basis.
Meanwhile, homeowners who are falling behind on their payments are being allowed to stay in their homes longer because lenders are reluctant to add to the glut of foreclosed homes on the market."
But if 2+2=5 then despite the increase in foreclosure compared to last year there remains significant numbers of houses awaiting foreclosure...
or a gift from the Obama administration as the fall elections near.
Twiggs and the $
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/tradi...
note the deeply oversold momentum indicator on the $ chart. Notice also the £ and Euro bullish trendlines. A retest of 85 on the $ could well occur as these two currencies retest support on the trendline, before again climbing against a weakening $. We shall see.
Re: Dollar strengthens
George,
re: Gee it's late where is that post close report so I'll know what to do tomorrow.
Patrick sent it into the ether, but it went missing until Jack posted an alert, and Patrick re-sent it. I had already gone to bed an hour before, noting to Pat that the 1 y.o. child in the next house was still on the playground set in the backyard, so I must be getting old when I can't keep up.
Re: WHERE'S THE GOLD?
While I appreciate all the math and tracking of gold and debt, as long as we have agencies beyond public control we will get no satisfaction or restoration of confidence.
Bernanke, Tiny Tim, and all those who preceded them in the takeover of the US can say anything, "prove" anything and most people will simply change the channel to "American Idol" or some other "reality".
The old saying, "They that hold the gold make the rules," applies even to imaginary Deep Storage gold. Or, perhaps it should be "They the make the rules hold the gold."
"Take back the country," is beginning to have much more appeal — it sure beats "Change We Can Believe In".
Re: Twiggs and the $
Thanks less, you definitely provide some guide post. Now with Forex matters, does traditional technical analyses work? Bill says these things(mysterious beast I take since he does not trade them)move as a group. Any clarification will be appreciated and good trading over where you are at...Australia maybe.
Also, what is your opinion as to what the Japanese will do with the yen, will they just hope the dollar strengthens or will they intervene? Much appreciated.
I am trying a trial account...I should say long dollar...sold euro...no overnight.