Morning Call [7:34am ET] Based on money flow indicators and price patterns (such as support and resistance levels and declining peaks and troughs), the technical outlook of the global equity markets is a gloomy one indeed. Having noted that, there are also some strong tertiary support levels that are holding here, indicating a correction in a Bear trend is likely for a few days, possibly weeks.
Colin Twiggs is a technical analyst who does good work, available at: http://incrediblecharts.com
Here is his latest summary:
The DJIA (9908.39) broke through support at 10000 to signal a secondary correction, offering a target of 9000.
The S&P 500 (1056.74) also started a secondary correction after breaking support at 1080.
Fedex (FDX $76.69), UPS (UPS $56.62) and the Dow Transport Average (3792.89) are undergoing a secondary correction. Dow Transport reversal below 3600 would warn of a possible primary down-trend — confirmed if there is a lower high (peak) followed by a new low.
The Nasdaq 100 (Non-Financial; mostly Technology) (1734.88) broke through support at 1750 to confirm the secondary correction.
The Toronto TSX Composite (11115.30) is testing support at 11000. Failure of primary support at 10800 would warn of a possible down-trend. Recovery above 11600 is most unlikely, but would indicate another advance.
The UK FTSE 100 (5092.33 Feb 8 close) broke through support at 5200, confirming a secondary correction.
The German DAX (5484.85 Feb 8 close) is headed for a test of primary support at 5300; failure would warn of a possible primary down-trend.
The India Sensex (16042.18 Feb 9 close +0.67%) is headed for a test of primary support at 15500; failure would warn of a possible primary down-trend.
The Japan Nikkei 225 (9932.90 Feb 9 close -0.19%) is testing the band of support between 9800 and 10000. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend, while failure would test primary support at 9000.
The Korea Seoul Composite (1570.49 Feb 9 close +1.14%) is headed for a test of primary support at 1520; breakout would signal a primary down-trend.
The China Shanghai Composite Index (2948.84 Feb 9 close +0.47%) respected the new resistance level at 3000, confirming the correction, and is headed for a test of primary support at 2700.
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (19790.28 Feb 9 close +1.22%) is already in a primary down-trend after breaking support at 21000.
The Australia ASX 200 (4520.70 Feb 9 close -0.40%) is testing primary support at 4500; failure would warn of a possible primary down-trend.
The Baltic Dry Index $BDI (2722.00 Feb 8) continues its correction toward primary support at 2100. Shrinking demand for bulk commodities, primarily from Asia, has resulted in a sharp fall in resources stocks.
JG Barredo at CitiSecOnline in Manila is another technician I review weekly. His support and resistance levels are presently as follows:
DJIA:
Recommendation: Lighten into rallies
Support: 9,999 – 9,678 Resistance: 10,369 ‐ 10,426
S&P 500:
Recommendation: Lighten into rallies
Support: 1,029 – 1,019 Resistance: 1,100 – 1,116
NASDAQ:
Composite Recommendation: Lighten into rallies
Support: 2,100 – 2,024 Resistance: 2,208 – 2,252
UK FTSE:
Recommendation: Lighten into rallies
Support: 5,000 – 4,800 Resistance: 5,317 – 5,550
Japan Nikkei 225:
Recommendation: Lighten down and wait for support
Support: 10,000 – 9,800 Resistance: 10,450 – 10,982
Hong Kong Hang Seng:
Recommendation: Lighten into the rally
Support: 19,425 – 18,614 Resistance: 20,700 – 21,360
China Shanghai Composite:
Recommendation: Lighten into rallies
Support: 2,900 – 2,829 Resistance: 3,065 – 3,184
$USB US 30-year Treasury Bonds:
Recommendation: Range trade (lighten near resistance)
Support: 117.20 – 114.50 Resistance: 121 – 123.24
$USD US Dollar Index:
Recommendation: Hold
Support: 79.00 – 78.14 Resistance: 80.58 – 81.00 / 82.63
$GOLD Gold Continuous Contract index:
Recommendation: Lighten into rallies
Support: 1,062 – 1,026 Resistance: 1,125 – 1,161
$WTIC West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil:
Recommendation: Lighten into rallies
Support: 69.80 – 65.00 Resistance: 77.05 – 81.00
$CRB US Commodity Index:
Recommendation: Lighten into rallies
Support: 257 – 250 Resistance: 270 – 276
Advice prior to Monday’s open:
This morning, traders appear to be buying risk. Equity futures and oil are up, and silver is up faster than gold, and the $USD is a bit weak.
There is likely to be a brief swing trade to the upside of the current range, where the old technical support levels are now regarded as resistance. In fact, selling is expected to come in before those resistance levels are met.
But for today at least, green arrows are expected.
These are indeed interesting days in the market.
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
An early morning rally fizzled and was in danger of turning into a panicky rout, but that was before news leaked the EU was ready to bail out Greece. Stocks immediately recovered the -1.1% lost from the opening print, soaring almost +2% in the next 30 minutes, bumping up against our first resistance level of S&P 1080. The Wall Street Journal then reported Germany was having second thoughts about rewarding Greece for its profligate spending, driving the broad market instantly down -1% off highs. Frazzled traders decided this minute-to-minute volatility was too extreme and thus curtailed their activity for the remainder of the session.
We felt strength in the Euro (FXE +0.91%) would be the catalyst that was needed to get this market moving to the upside and that was certainly the case today. Crude Oil (USO +2.82%), Silver (SLV +2.92%), and Gold (GLD +1.38%) were prime beneficiaries of dollar weakness as money managers felt more comfortable adding risk exposure after the rumored Greece bailout.
It really is comical that politicians believe they can print their way out of this credit crisis by issuing more debt. The sot has the shakes, so put more grain alcohol in his IV, regardless of the long-term effects on his well being?
After first resistance was nearly hit, it made sense to trim long positions, either that or hedge the overall portfolio by initiating shorts to offset bullish exposure. If the tide has truly turned down, one would not expect more than three consecutive up days, and the true battle will be waged at the 50% retracement level of the most recent decline
(1150.41-1044.5=105.91/2=52.95+1044.5=1097.45).
Any rally failing in that general area and subsequently taking out the low at 1044.5 will be a huge negative for the equity markets.
As market volatility increases, established positions become riskier investments. High risk means higher potential reward; position size is reduced but potential gains great as moves travel further than in dull trading environments. Stops need to widen a bit to avoid being whipsawed out of potentially good trades, but as long as position size is reduced, then overall risk remains under control.
The action is getting fast and furious; homework needs to be done outside of market hours, trading game plans formulated, and alternative strategies devised so that traders are able to act quickly and decisively when opportunities arise.
Have a great evening.
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Comments
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
ERTS - Downgraded to Hold @ Needham
SAP - Upgraded to Market Perform @ FBR. PT = $44
I am putting more weight on resistance reaction
than finite rally numbers today.
Will it be a gap and backfill, gap and go, or gap and trap?
good luck
Re:
Absolutely stunning...from a "too big to fail" mega bank, a new "financial product" from Citi, a new “index” that pays off when financial crisis hits!
Citi plans crisis derivatives:
"Credit specialists at Citi are considering launching the first derivatives intended to pay out in the event of a financial crisis."
http://tinyurl.com/yaycsyk
Cara 100 Update
PTR - Downgraded to Sell @ Government Sachs
SLV
buy limit 14.64, halfway down Friday's kangaroo tail reversal. Good for the day.
Do your own homework.
Cash is king
Unless you're a day trader. In which case you'd be in cash at the end of most days anyway.
If you're short, there's pain this morning, and you really don't know how bad it may get.
If you're long, you were in pain yesterday, and looking at some relief today. (If you went long at yesterday's close, well- wouldn't you be looking at taking it off into today's strength? And wouldn't that make you a day trader?)
If you're in cash, it's just a spectator sport right now.
Cara 100 Update
ERTS - PT Lowered from $23 to $20 @ Wedbush Morgan. Outperform
ERTS - numbers reduced at FBR. ERTS estimates were cut through 2011. Company lowered guidance for a variety of reasons. Outperform rating and new $20 price target.
Re: Cash is king
Hi 2nd,
Glad to hear from you more often. You're absolutely right. I have a day job, so I can't possibly trade nimbly. I did write some calls into strength, but I'm starting to wonder if it's worth the effort to monitor. But at least with Options Writes, time is on my side. :)
Dave
Areas I'm watching
I'm likely going to stand aside and see how much strength there really is today. I'm generally inclined to get short and would love to see the S&P bounce on low volume to the 1082-1084 area. That would represent a trip up to the top of its downtrending channel (at least it would represent the channel top over the next day or so, before its move downward sets a lower ceiling), and that area also corresponds to a 0.382 Fib retracement of the down move that began at the highs of Jan 19th and ended at the lows of Friday.
That would still be a move of quite a number of points, so failing that, how we do above 1074 (low of the 29th) could be telling, as that was a high volume down day.
TZA @ 11.15
Betting this "rally" fizzles out (and wanting a bit of a hedge against longs XOM, KFT, MPEL).
KC
gold's dance
ooohhhh another pre-market run up that was disolved in short order.
this is to me an inflection point though.
these surges in the premarket are indications of either a coming upward surge due to credit stress or the usual ass-hattery where gold moves down throughout the day, up overnight and the shares get clobbered even if gold is up a few bucks.
w/ teh USD weakening this morning im leaning towards being ready for a pop upwards, how long it lasts is dicey, as any major market weakness has taken gold and its shares south, so lets not get ahead of ourselves. this $1070 level is critical, if gold continues to move south into the afternoon moving below the $1060 level ill be out.
good luck
SPY, show me your metal longs!
SPY Resistance. http://chart.ly/wscnq7.
Re: Cash is king
LOL
I liked it better when you were an active trader 2nd! Dumped my SLW into strength this AM. Guess that makes me a day trader. :)
In bounce camp myself....added BGZ at 18.73
1% trailing stop triggered @ 19.09 on violent up tick in the market.
Volume is not very impressive:
Market Internals update at 10:30amET
- NYSE volume 220M shares, about 11% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 6.5:1.
- NASDAQ volume 465M shares, about 8% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 3.2:1.
- VIX index -3.5% to just over 25.50
I am still in "merely a bounce" camp
Goldman helped Greeks conceal debt levels - per Der Spiegel
Apparently this started in 2002:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,...
NLS
I've written a few times about NLS and in full disclosure, I'm long this company at $2.65, $2.17, $2.32, and just now I purchased more at $2.29. The stock is not very liquid so it's important to be aware of this if the market sells off.
My investment thesis behind this is simple: it's a turnaround story. In case you aren't aware of the company, they sell a wide line of consumer fitness products under the Nautilus, Schwinn Fitness, StairMaster and Bowflex brands. They have operated in three divisions: Direct, Retail, and Commercial. Below is a bried summary of those divisions from their 10-k.
DIRECT:
In our direct business, we market and sell our products, principally Bowflex strength and cardiovascular products, directly to end-consumers. Historically, almost all of our direct business sales were in strength related products and accessories, including our Bowflex rod-based home gyms and the Revolution home gym. We have been, and plan to continue to be, the largest direct marketer of strength products in the U.S. We have also taken measures to diversify our product mix by increasing advertising for the Bowflex TreadClimber, a one-of-a-kind revolutionary cardiovascular product.
Approximately 65% of our U.S. customers take advantage of a financing program offered by HSBC Bank Nevada, N.A. (“HSBC”) to purchase our products using the private label Bowflex revolving credit card. Consequently, our direct channel business is susceptible to changes in the domestic credit markets and the risk that HSBC, or another lender, is unwilling to extend affordable credit to our customers. During 2008, we amended our agreement with HSBC to extend the program for five years, as it would have otherwise ended in December 2008. In March 2009, HSBC announced it would no longer participate in consumer lending in the U.S. through its HFC and Beneficial brand names. We have been notified by HSBC that the announced restructuring of their operations would not affect the existing Bowflex revolving credit card arrangement between HSBC and Nautilus.
RETAIL:
In our retail business, we market and sell a comprehensive line of consumer fitness equipment under the Nautilus, Schwinn Fitness, StairMaster and Bowflex brands. Our products are marketed through a network of more than 5,000 retail locations, consisting of sporting goods stores, department stores, governmental agencies, and, to a lesser extent, smaller specialty retailers and independent bike dealers. In 2008, we implemented a retail sales program which placed greater emphasis on higher volume retail customers, specifically targeting larger sporting goods and department stores.
Retail business sales have historically been led by the Company’s strength products, including the Bowflex rod-based home gym and SelectTech dumbbells. However, we believe the fitness equipment market for cardio products is much larger and provides greater opportunity for growth. As a result we have focused our retail business product development efforts on the introduction of new cardio products, including a line of Schwinn branded indoor bikes and ellipticals. We plan to continue to invest in the development of cardio products for the retail business, anticipating that such investments will help us achieve growth in market share.
COMMERCIAL:
In our commercial business, we market and sell our Nautilus, Schwinn Fitness, and StairMaster commercial fitness equipment through an internal sales force and network of distributors in the U.S. and abroad. Our primary customers include health clubs, governmental agencies, hotels, corporate fitness centers, colleges, universities, assisted living facilities and other organizations, each of which typically requires unique strength and cardio products designed for higher usage.
Product offerings in the commercial business include: club-quality strength and resistance products, such as Nautilus One; free weights; high-use StairMaster cardio products; and other pieces of fitness equipment marketed as part of a workout “circuit.” Circuit training involves the use of a series of machines targeting a specific muscle or muscle group. Completing a circuit allows a person to obtain a complete body workout much quicker than utilizing free weights. We believe the breadth of our commercial product line, and the quality of our products, are well suited for a circuit-based fitness regimen.
CHANGING BUSINESS MODEL
In 2009, after experiencing a near death situation, the company finally came to their senses and analyzed the operating performance of each division. After some analysis they realized that the commercial division was a complete dog, dragging down the performance of the entire company. For the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2009, the company as a whole lost $34 Million; however, the retail and direct segments had an operating profit of $6 Million.
As a result of this performance, they decided to sell off the commercial division. In November 2009, the company sold off a portion of their commercial assets, receiving a net cash payment of $10.9 million and approximately $1.4 million in liabilities are being assumed by the buyer. "Nautilus will receive approximately $7.9 million cash at closing, $2.0 million within 60 days, and the remaining $1.0 million over the next three years. In addition, Nautilus will be entitled to receive certain royalties based on the buyer’s post-closing sales of Schwinn® commercial indoor cycling and StairMaster® products. Nautilus will retain the right to continue to market and sell Schwinn® indoor cycling products in the retail and direct to consumer sales channels. Nautilus will also retain certain rights to sell StairMaster® products in the retail and direct to consumer markets.
Nautilus continues to work with Robert W. Baird & Co. to divest its remaining commercial assets, including the strength and cardio lines and the manufacturing plant in Virginia."
With the disposition of their commercial businesses, Nautilus now plans to focus exclusively on the consumer marketplace through its DIRECT and RETAIL divisions.
TAX REFUND:
In January the company also announced that a federal income tax refund of approximately $12.1 million which it previously expected to receive by March 31, 2010 is now expected to be received earlier, prior to January 31, 2010.
BALANCE SHEET:
As a result of the two transactions above, the company now has $30 Million in cash, $5 Million in LT Debt, and it no longer has a commercial division dragging down its operating performance.
VALUATION:
The company currently has 30.7 Million shares outstanding and is trading at $2.30 for a valuation of $70 Million. After backing out net cash of $25 Million, the company is trading at a valuation of $45 Million.
Attached is a quick analysis I put together of the potential valuation of this business now that they have no commercial business.
FD:
I'm long at an average of around $2.35 to $2.40.
Financials Starting to fizzle and Go RED, back into FAZ again :)
Those of you who got the chance to exit their long positions this morning, congrats. The BEAR trend still on big, just watch GS behavior and follow thru. If it goes and close below 148 today then watch out..
If Europe does bail out Greece and other Euro nations, what do you think that will do to the Euro??? Just remember what happened to USD$ when the FEDS bailed out US banks?? I guess you can figure out the answer here. I leave it up to you to see the results thru.
Stay short or in Cash for now, unless you are a DAY TRADER and know how to play the moves on the TA charts.. IMO
FAZ call options didnt budge this morning
at the open. relatively speaking. shorts are not out of the woods just yet. there is still some time for upside thrust. but the overall sentiment I am sensing is "get me out of my long positions".
As America exports its health pollution to
' developing countries ' ( Coke, Mickey D's, Marlboro man, etc.. ), I will interested to see the diabetes records in ten years....
Who just flipped the switch...
On the buy programs?
These markets turn on an absolute dime. News?
Re: NLS
Thanks for sharing the idea TOF. Looking at the chart, it looks like a good one to "trade around a core position" if you are inclined to stay long for a while. Seems like when it catches a bid (approx 5 times in the past year) it is a big mover but retraces quite a bit from the top of the pop.
KC
Re: Who just flipped the switch...
Probably Government Sachs...they're the ones with the computer on the floor of the NYSE...
Re: Financials Starting to fizzle and Go RED, back into FAZ ...
Looks to me like a fade attempt was made to close this mornings gap up on S&P, thus far unsuccesfully. If this mornings gap up holds, I think it could leave enough short fuel in the tank to push us toward and attempt at the over-head gap between S&P 1087 and 1097 (created last Wed/Thurs). Closing that gap would still leave the S&P in the midst of its current downtrend....
Re: Cash is king
lot's of noise from Europe about supporting Greece, at least "in principle" anyway. watch out for potential $ spike. cheers.
Re: Who just flipped the switch...
There is barrage of headlines from Europe re: Greece, and market seems to react on each of them. The latest so far:
11:44:28 AM
(GR) EU's Rehn: EU can support Greece "in the broad sense of the word," Greece needs to take "necessary measures" to get aid - interview
- Expects "discussions and decisions" over next few days
11:48:53 AM
(GR) German Fin Min reportedly plans to address German lawmakers on Greece situation on 2/9 - unconfirmed report
Re: NLS
Yes its not for the faint of heart, given the volatility and lack of liquidity. However, I believe this could be an excellent long term hold. Whiel I don't think this can get back up to its old highs of the upper 20's, I think it's reasonable to expect a return to the high single digits to low double digits over time.
Re: Who just flipped the switch...
I think it's a sign not to be short right now. If you think the market is going down, wait for the bounce before shorting. It went down 8 to 9% in 2 or 3 weeks so a bounce is pretty much a given.
Thank you Greece!
:)
Watch the battles at the 50 day ema
on most tickers
XLF still under $14.
Who are they kidding!
IMMR
If anyone else is following this company, they finally released results of their internal investigation regarding revenues in their medical division. They also announced 2 quarters worth of financial data and, most importantly, they announced a change in their business strategy. They will no longer sell products through their medical division and instead will focus exclusively on licensing their technology, which is what I thought they should have done a long time ago. They expect $25 to $30 Million in revenues in 2010, of which $3 to $5 Million will come from Medical licensing. That means they expect $22 to $25 Million from gaming/cell phones/etc. That's $5 to $6 MM/qtr, which is almost double what they did in the quarters they just release so they're expecting significant growth. They also expect to be EBITDA positive in 2010.
The market is skeptical though, with the stock down over 6% today. I think it has a right to be skeptical given the poor management performance over the years.
FD:
I sold my stake in this company a couple of weeks ago but am considering buying back in...I don't expect a big move up until they can provide results.
The Bernanke Equation
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2010/02/bernanke-equati...
We can't fix the potholes, so we'll pave over 'em.
Trimming down positions
they have my attention
Warning: further reading's likely to invoke strong puking reflex
(US) White House's Summers: Worries about doing "too little" for the US economy
Re: Who just flipped the switch...
See this market drop? Here is why:
12:41:33 PM
*(GR) GERMAN GOVT SPOKESMAN: REPORTS ABOUT AID TO GREECE ARE UNFOUNDED
***Reminder: At 11:44amET EU Commissioner for Enlargement Rehn stated that the EU can support Greece "in the broad sense of the word," Greece needs to take "necessary measures" to get aid
Re: Who just flipped the switch...
LOL. The politicians have to liquidate before mom and pop somehow.
Re: Who just flipped the switch...
This market kind of reminds me of one of Gary Larson's Far Side comic strip with the pilots announcing turbulence, then rocking the plane around and enjoying a good laugh...
Re: The Bernanke Equation
Its funny you should mention ' potholes ', Ron.... This week, after weeks of pricing equipement, insurance reg.'s, etc., in thoughts of starting a road repair company ( as I have been in construction for many years ), as an independent contractor, I finished my talks with the State DOT... 'Infrastructure Spending ' ? Putting America to work ? Forget it... All repair work will be done ' in-house ' at the DOT, or thru the States big, big contractors, who already have their lock .. The jobs just are not out there.
Re: Volume is not very impressive:
Will Really be looking at volume's for the next three days...
Re: Volume is not very impressive:
That all changed when headlines from Europe started rocking the boat:
Market Internals update at 12:00pmET
- NYSE volume 490M shares, about 12% above its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 4.9:1.
- NASDAQ volume 990M shares, about 6% above its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 2.2:1.
- VIX index -3% to just over 25.50
Re: Volume is not very impressive:
Yes... am mainly focused after 3 pm. today, and from 2 - 4 pm tomorrow... Thank you for the stat's, Vad...
Re: Thank you Greece!
YES! The greek Economy has been saved! THe world should rejoice. Markets should go to all time highs on olive and sheep power. Wait a minute. No help? How will the world economy ever recover. Hello new lows.
Bob
The tax payers were better off letting the to-big-to-fail...FAIL
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The U.S. Treasury has officially lost its entire $2.33 billion TARP investment in CIT Group(CIT Quote), according to a company filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission after Monday's closing bell. The Treasury made the investment in CIT in December 2008, but CIT then ran into trouble after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. refused to guarantee its debt, as the FDIC did for larger lenders, including General Electric(GE Quote) and large banks like Citigroup(C Quote), Bank of America(BAC Quote) and Wells Fargo(WFC Quote). CIT ended up filing for bankruptcy protection on Nov. 1 but was able to reorganize and return to a public listing on Dec. 10.
Contrary to what many assumed, the bankruptcy filing did not extinguish all hope for a taxpayer recovery. The Treasury and other preferred shareholders received complex securities called contingent value rights (CVRs) which could have been worth something if CIT Group's stock had reached the mid-50s ahead of Monday's session, according to the estimate of another investor who held CVRs.
CIT Group is the largest loss on record under the TARP, though AIG (AIG Quote) General Motors, GMAC, Fannie Mae(FNM Quote), Freddie Mac(FRE Quote), Chrysler and Citigroup each owe the Treasury at least $10 billion each, according to ProPublica.
Linus Wilson, a University of Louisiana professor who has kept a close critical watch on the bailout, just hopes the Treasury has learned its lesson on CIT, should the lender run into trouble again under its new boss, former NYSE Euronext(NYX Quote)and Merrill Lynch chief John Thain.
"Taxpayers have already been burned once propping up CIT Group. Hopefully, they will not be forced to do that by misguided Treasury officials again. One thing we learned from the first Chapter 11 filing of CIT Group was that its bankruptcy was a non-event for the markets," Wilson wrote via email. A spokesperson for the Treasury declined comment for this article.
CIT shares rose 14 cents to $30.75 in recent trades. Based on Monday's close at $30.61, the stock was up nearly 11% so far in 2010.
These Comments made by Jim Sinclair to Followers this Morning...
My Dear Extended Family,
I doubt there has ever been a time in financial history when there has been challenges of this magnitude.
This is not business as usual in any form.
When have financial meetings been so top secret?
When has the military cordon off financial meetings?
When have F-18s, F-22s and French Rafales provided air support (as the Swiss did for the Davos seminar) for two central bank meetings in the last few weeks as the USA and Australia did?
Don’t accept terrorism as an excuse for everything that remains unexplained. There are so many lies and so much misinformation out there that the task of figuring out what is real is a daunting task.
I implore you to go for safety in everything you do. How can you go wrong hunkering down?
Do not speculate.
You cannot out trade these people nor can you read their intentions by charts. Both are impossibilities.
Do not deal on borrowed money. Secure you and yours. Take delivery of your precious metals and share certificates.
We are in unchartered seas of international financial turmoil. The mega rich have no loyalty to anyone or anything.
I know some of them, made one of them from scratch, and I assure you would put their mothers in a microwave for the right price. This is a financial world war taking place behind top secret meetings that are deciding our fate while not even knowing they are out of control.
I can’t change this but I can do my best to protect you.
Respectfully,
Jim
Mortgage Banker Message-Disconnect
The CEO of the Mortgage Banker's Association, John Couson is pontificating on 'the moral and ethical benefits of paying your mortgage' even if it seems no longer in your best financial interest. After all, what lessons are you teaching your kids?
Meanwhile, they sold their own HQ building toCoStar for 55 cents on the dollar just months after realizing they overpaid for their home, like so many Americans. $37M worth of write offs. Nice lesson for the kids.
Re: These Comments made by Jim Sinclair to Followers this ...
This alone:
"You cannot out trade these people nor can you read their intentions by charts. Both are impossibilities"
is enough for me to dismiss the rest.
Perhaps thermal merits a look
after listening to Pres. Obama... still see CLD as a decent pick.
Re: These Comments made by Jim Sinclair to Followers this ...
There is indeed a war going on behind the scenes. The external repercussions of these clandestine actions will be felt by all soon enough. Changes will be revolutionary, seemingly devastating, and probably quite rough and uncomfortable during an expected transitory period... but in the long term these events will lead to a much healthier world for all of humanity. I stand by these proclamations, as I always have.
As Mr. Sinclair courageously announces "... we arent in Kansas anymore, Dorothy."
...dismiss these observations at your own peril, of course.
Appearances and the Federal Reserve
Appearances are of 4 kinds; things either:
1. Are
2. Neither are nor appear to be
3. Are but do not to be
4. Are not and yet appear to be
The fourth kind: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7auQEXTWomA
Health Insurance rate hikes are going to start in-mass..........
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2010/02/ob...
Obama Administration to California Insurance Company: Justify Your 39% Premium Hike
Reports that Anthem Blue Cross is raising premiums on some customers by 39 percent on March 1, have prompted the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, Kathleen Sebelius, to write a letter to the company, Golden State's largest private insurer, asking the company to "provide a detailed justification for these rate increases to the public."
"Additionally, you should make public information on the percent of your individual market premiums that is used for medical care versus the percent that is used for administrative costs," Sebelius wrote, noting that the profits of Anthem Blue Cross's parent company, WellPoint Incorporated, have soared.
The company earned $2.7 billion in just the last quarter of 2009. Quarterly sales went from $15.1 billion to $19 billion -- a 26% rise.
The Los Angeles Times reported Friday that the company has been telling "many of its approximately 800,000 customers who buy individual coverage -- people not covered by group rates -- that its prices will go up March 1 and may be adjusted 'more frequently' than its typical yearly increases."
In a fax to Leslie Margolin, president, of Anthem Blue Cross, Sebelius asked why the company "plans to raise premiums for its California customers by as much as 39 percent," which the HHS Secretary calls "extraordinary increases" that are "up to 15 times faster than inflation," thus threatening "to make health care unaffordable for hundreds of thousands of Californians, many of whom are already struggling to make ends meet in a difficult economy."
Sebelius said that those who hold individual coverage "deserve to know if their premium increases would be invested in better medical care or insurance company overhead costs like salaries, profits, and advertising. I am aware that the State of California is investigating this matter, and urge Anthem Blue Cross to cooperate fully. In the meantime, I will be closely monitoring the situation."
UPDATE: Anthem Blue Cross issued the following response today:
Regarding Letter from Secretary of Health and Human Services
February 8, 2010
Anthem Blue Cross in California has received the letter from Secretary Sebelius. We will reply to her promptly. It is important to note that individual medical insurance premiums do not reflect an individual member's personal claims experience. Therefore, as medical costs increase across our member population, premium increases to the entire membership pool result. Unfortunately, in the weak economy many people who do not have health conditions are foregoing buying insurance. This leaves fewer people, often with significantly greater medical needs, in the insured pool. We regret the impact this has on our members. It highlights, why we need sustainable health care reform to manage the steadily rising costs of hospitals, drugs and doctors . As such, it is important to go back to the beginning and get health care reform done right. At the same time, we are engaging with a broad range of key stakeholders across California to discuss the state's individual insurance market and share ideas on how we can collectively partner on meaningful change.
Our leader is speaking on cnbc now...
Paulson, not Obama
Re: Health Insurance rate hikes are going to start ...
I just can't help but think, that this period in world history is a repeat of what has happened for centuries... that those with the money, and the power and means to keep/increase their monies, are doing so at a increased pace... where they ' bury ' it is up for debate... but, to me, it is a repeat of ages past... To the victor, belong the spoils..
Re: Our leader is speaking on cnbc now...
Not my leader kemo sabe. Made me want to puke within 60 seconds of watching the guy.
Re: Health Insurance rate hikes are going to start ...
baz22 - I agree. Thats why I think it makes sense to remain an emotionally detached observer. And even then, observe everything with a grain of salt.
Re: Our leader is speaking on cnbc now...
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! first good laugh I've had today.. Thanks, Bill !
Can a chart be sexy!?
http://chart.ly/t4krke
Re: Can a chart be sexy!?
and SRS is still positive today... !
Re: Can a chart be sexy!?
I saw that too. pretty nice chart there as well.
(GR) Germany considering loan
(GR) Germany considering loan guarantees to Greece and other troubled Eurozone countries - WSJ cites sources
- guarantee plan would be initiated by the EU; and the plan has been discussed with the ECB, plan may not start this week
Re: (GR) Germany considering loan
Expect a contra statement at 3:55pm NY Time.
:)
Re: (GR) Germany considering loan
Between now and 3:55 they may successfully squeeze in two more.
Why Banks Love Foreclosure
http://motherjones.com/politics/2010/01/mortgage-s...
crazy stuff! So happy we borrowed from a dull yet efficient (and honest) Swiss banker, whom we can speak to personally during office hours.
Re: Our leader is speaking on cnbc now...
I thought he is the one who "had a bout of the dry heaves".
What I Learned From Hank Paulson’s Book
Re: NLS
Heavy volume today in Nautilus. I have seen 3 trades go through for 180k worth of shares. Not sure what to make of it but the volume is 3 X normal volume today.
Re: (GR) Germany considering loan
There:
(GR) ECB declines comment on latest WSJ report concerning German loan guarantees
- Note: earlier it was reported that Germany considering loan guarantees to Greece and other troubled Eurozone countries - WSJ cites sources
Re: (GR) Germany considering loan
almost choked on my coffee.
Most undramatic 200point day in a while
I think i feel this way because while prices popped, resistance levels have not been defeated, yet.
Most of my "bearish" positions, have not even been hurt today.
I need to see recent leaders reclaim the mountain. AAPL, AMZN, INTC, JPM, XLF etc. they are all still looking ugly.
Re: Our leader is speaking on cnbc now...
His book, his recent testimony and his media interviews amounts to nothing more than Paulson's attempt to re-write history. He represents, in my eyes, a tragedy for the American worker, taxpayer, business owner and independent investor. The devastation to global wealth that he and his gang from Goldman Sachs has caused is in the multi-trillions. He said "Trust me" to the US Congress over the $800 billion monies he said he needed to restore the system, and within days of receiving their approval, he would not tell them where the money went because he knew he would have been impeached. I recall the day that Rep. Sen. Chuck Grassley, who was the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee when Paulson took over Treasury, looking into the cameras and saying to the people, "Nobody knows where the money went. Paulson won't tell us." How criminal is that? Paulson's dirty little secret may go down in the annals of US government as the most crooked. Yet, the man has the swagger of a king. I find the episode incredible.
New European Finance Minister nominated
... http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://images....
Re: (GR) Germany considering loan
It's rather normal pattern with each development taking place over days and potentially seriously impacting the market. Remember for instance the days of TARP discussion? We had new headline every hour or so: we have votes - no we don't - we will vote today - no we will vote in a week - senator X said it's a bad idea - senator Y said X can kiss his a... umm, came up with contra-argument. Etc etc, for days. Same thing here: officials fill pauses with their appearances, media grabs every bit and spins it, market reacts on each of them.
Nibbling on some SPXU
I think today is probably going to be low volume after all (my index volume quotes are 20 minutes behind but it's looking like it has too much ground to make up to be a day of anything other than average volume - you probably know for sure Vad?)
So today is shaping up like a low volume rejection of anything above 1074. I'll throw a small trade on with a stop just above 1075.
BIDU looks less than ideal
http://chart.ly/242zb9. They report after the bell i believe.
Re: Most undramatic 200point day in a while
NYUGrad,
You mean you're not joining the Kalamatianós?
Well, neither am I.
Re: Most undramatic 200point day in a while
Bill,
You are a plethora of knowledge! I had to google "Kalamatianós"
Looking forward to reading your closing report.
Re: Our leader is speaking on cnbc now...
Yes, it's as credible as Kaa's "Trust in me" from the Jungle Book.
Bundle up folks. 10+ inches of snow in the NY metro coming
tomorrow. Got to get myself to grocery store.
the good news i get to work from home tomorrow.
Re: Our leader is speaking on cnbc now...
I read this morning that Goldman Sacks help Greece hide their debt from the public since 2002. Could this be why the greatest theft in history by Goldman was allow against "we the people"? This is a failed state, the people running the government should be prosecuted by the government. I'm afraid that a complete collapse will be necessary before there is any change "we can believe in".
Re: Our leader is speaking cnbc now...
And lets not forget Hanks biggest booster, cheerleader and enabler the beloved Warren Buffet. With the deal he got from GS is it any wonder? Nothing like revisionist history after the fact. It amazes me that all of these economic elites can get away with this revisionist history. What is needed are indictments, for the outright fraud that has been perpetrated on this country!
spx
If you look at the 2003 ihs and think about how many may have dismissed the po over the next 3+ yrs and then see how accurate it really was, then you get a sense(right or wrong) of what the recent ihs may be driving price to?
Although nothing is certain, the po of the 2008/9 ihs, whether it gets there or not is another issue. Traders will exit when they will.
Having said that, most dismiss that possibility after the breakout yet price moves on.
Note that both price objectives are a 50% fibonacci extention off the reaction highs from their bear leg lows as well.
Just observations....
its all about the euro
It seems this is all about the euro. Chart-wise, $XEU has a rising daily RSI, now 38 due to its pop today. Weekly RSI is 25 and rising, while monthly RSI is 42 and falling. To me, TA seems inconclusive. We might have a reversal in progress, but it could fade just like the last couple attempts did after a day or two - which means lower commodities and more movement down in the SPX.
If "somehow" the Greek debt issue gets (temporarily) cleared up by some sort of German (or ECB) bond guarantee program, the Euro could rally hard, which would take SPX and the commodities right along with it in the updraft. My question is, is that what euro-land really wants - a euro rebound - or do they want to keep the pot simmering, but not enough to completely boil over, to keep that euro as low as possible for as long as possible?
I really appreciated Vad's reporting today - it helped me to make sense of the turbulence, and the reference to TARP and the water torture nature of the information release brought back fond memories (!) of all that volatility. Its a wonder the VIX isn't even higher.
When that news hit, almost every single one of my longs were stopped out within about 30 seconds.
Barbara Parker
Given that the legal thrillers written by John Grisham are my favorite books now that I'm winding down, I picked up an old (jacket torn off) book of a similar kind. It was Suspicion of Guilt (1995) by Barbara Parker. Although I did not know her name, within a dozen pages or so I knew I'd become a huge fan of this writer. A day later I finished the 400-plus pages and decided I'd immediately search for the others. All told, Barbara Parker, who recently passed away, wrote eight in the Suspicion series. The others are:
Suspicion of Innocence (1994)
Suspicion of Deceit (1998)
Suspicion of Betrayal (1999)
Suspicion of Malice (2000)
Suspicion of Vengeance (2001)
Suspicion of Madness (2003)
Suspicion of Rage (2005)
I intend to read them all. Preferably, I could do that over about three weeks gunkholing in the Exumas.
http://images.google.bs/images?rlz=1C1CHMB_enBS321...
Mark Hulbert on The Fosback Index
http://tinyurl.com/ygaqwlf
"How has this indicator performed in the past? At the stock market top in October 2007 it was "extremely bearish" (Fosback's words from the last issue received before that top). In fact, it was as bearish then as it had previously been at the market tops in 2000, 1981, and 1972. It furthermore turned bullish in early 2009, just before the bear market's March 9 low, reaching its most favorable reading in 17 years.
"Fosback declares his Index to be "the single best cyclical market indicator in existence."
"Furthermore, unlike many other market timing models being circulated today, the Fosback Index is not the outcome of a data mining exercise in which the data is retrofitted after-the-fact to a new model that no one had ever heard of before. On the contrary, Fosback introduced the index in his book Stock Market Logic in 1975, 35 years ago.
"What is the Fosback Index saying about today's market?
"I thought you'd never ask...
"It turns out that the indicator's current reading contains both good and bad news. The good: The Fosback Index remains in positive territory. The bad: It has fallen fast in recent months, and is nowhere near as bullish as it was a year ago."
Canaccord says 'Heading for Heartburn'
Says the Canaccord junior mining team: "More than a quarter of last year’s total private placements (PPs) for mining related companies on the TSX Venture Index closed in November 2009. And in March 2010, the four-month trading restrictions on those November PPs will end and the shares will become free trading. In previous years, additional paper hitting the market in a similar manner has produced selling pressure. Therefore, we think the TSX Venture may be heading for some March heartburn."
per Bill Fleckenstein tonite, the CIC ( China Investment Corp. )
a $ 300 Billion monster... SEC filings show they bought good sized chunks in the oil ETF and gold ETF.... also in Kinross Gold ( kgc )
IN THE TRILLIONS
ALOHA !!
Been busy with Valentines Day stuff. I did run up some numbers on the US Treasury just to get a lay of the land from a debt perspective.
So the House voted to bump the Debt Ceiling up another $1.9TRIL, so if you add in the $290BIL they already bumped it up last month then we have a grand total of $2.19TRIL USD. My guess is that this $2.19TRIL increase will get the thumbs up from both parties. Really what choice is there? Its been a 71 year hoax ...
I did looked back at the prior FY 2008 and FY 2009 to see what sort of debt issuance was going on then. It breaks down like this, based on the US Treasury date of Feb 4th of each fiscal year, which is a four month period.
FY 2008
Marketable Debt = $1.54T USD
Non-Marketable Debt = $12.348TRIL USD
Total FY Debt(four months) = 13.892TRIL USD
FY 2009
Marketable Debt = $3.056TRIL USD
Non-Marketable Debt = $15.074TRIL USD
Total FY Debt(4 months)= $18.13TRIL USD
FY 2010
Marketable Debt = $2.635TRIL USD
Non-Marketable Debt = $17.165TRIL USD
Total FY Debt(4 months)= $19.8TRIL USD
Clearly Obama is outspending in terms of total debt numbers, however George Bush and Cheney had a huge jump in debt issuances between FY 2008 and FY 2009 of $4.238TRIL USD, while Obama has only increased the debt issuances between FY 2009 and FY 2010 by $1.67TRIL USD. The Bush regime increased total debt issuance in FY 2009 by 32% of GDP in just that four month period. Remember all these numbers are only for the first four months of each fiscal year(FY) ... in the trillions ... firmly in the trillions never to go back! We still have eight more months of major debt ahead of us before FY 2010 comes to a close and that debt will escalate into FY 2011.
Re: IN THE TRILLIONS
Kaimu,
Thanks for keeping us updated on the debt.I like how you compared the administrations. Politicians from both parties sure are gifted at spending money. Lets vote them all out. Please keep us posted.
One question for you. Back in the late 90s when the headlines were saying we had a budget surplus I assume we were never really out of debt, but were we in the trillions yet. What was are debt and expenditures in February of 99. I'm betting we are at least 10 times higher today.
Bob
Mole gets it...
Great post on evil speculator tonight. Including one of my favorite George Carlin clips ("You and I are not in the BIG CLUB")
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=14525
enjoy
KC
"China Dumps US Asset Backed and Corporates"
Is this the real deal?
http://bit.ly/d6NQ3g
"Dollar-denominated risk assets, including asset-backed securities and corporates, are no longer wanted at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), nor at China’s large commercial banks. The Chinese government has ordered its reserve managers to divest itself of riskier securities and hold only Treasuries and US agency debt with an implicit or explicit government guarantee. This already has been communicated to American securities dealers, according to market participants with direct knowledge of the events."
If anyone finds anything please share.
EUR/USD update
http://chart.ly/m7gtxh
Re: EUR/USD update
loved your comments on the chart..VERY TRUE :) If China story turns out to be true, the USD$ will head over 82 in a week or two. JMO
MHFT reminds me of TBT
A reminder from the MHFT made me look at TBT. New trendline in place?`
If equities puke then normally TLT is the place to be, but the action in TBT from October suggests otherwise. FWIW
Re: IN THE TRILLIONS
ALOHA!!
bobbyo ... Yes, definetly America and its US Treasury has been in debt ever since we defeated the Brits. However there was only one year where we actually paid back our debt and became debt free and that was in 1835 under Andrew Jackson, who hated central bankers.
As you know there is a great deal of hoopla from the Dems talking about a budget surplus under Clinton, which for two years there were thanks to the Tech Boom and limited warfare. However that never stopped the spending or the debts from rising. Once again this is only for a four month period up to Feb 4th. Here are the debt numbers ...
FY 1999
Marketable Debt = $709.54BIL USD
Non-Marketable = $4.858TRIL USD
Total Debt = $5.567TRIL USD
Now just for further comparison on the spending side here are two more line items. First four months to Feb 4th. Here are the numbers ...
FY 1999
Unemployment = $7.1BIL USD
FY 2010
Unemployment = $56.2BIL USD
Obama is spending eight times what Clinton spent on Unemployment benefits back in 1999. Two things are working here. Yes, the number of unemployed are higher but also the weekly checks are higher due to inflation. Who can afford to pay their mortgage and their utilities on $80 a week today?
Now here is what the US Treasury spent(total outlays)in that same four month period to Feb 4th ...
FY 1999
Total Withdrawals = $1.462TRIL USD
FY 2010
Total Withdrawals = $3.9TRIL USD
That is a 270% increase(25% per year) in spending since FY 1999 ... Where were the spending cuts all those years? There weren't any is the answer ... If only my 401k went up 25% per annum!
Okay, this makes it perfectly clear that Obama's State of the Union proposal to cut government spending by $20BIL USD was an embarrassing mistake to even mention. What is a $20BIL cut compared to $3.9TRIL spending within four months? Extrapolate that four month period to one year and we're looking at outlays(spending) of $11.7TRIL USD. What good is a $20BIL cut against $11.7TRIL? It's like .17% of total debt issued ...
What's happening is the same old Empire story that has been happening since Rome and Caesar ruled. The debt service will strangle America. I drive around rural Hawaii here and wonder when these roads will ever be resurfaced again. I wonder why the only big building to be built here in Hilo is the Justice Center building the State put in. Its a huge building! It dwarfs any of the other government buildings here by a mile. What is the logistical thinking here? Will we be needing that much more "justice"? For me the "justice" would be to have the Justice Center a big tent, not a lavish four story building.
If you have eyes then you can understand why Ron Paul ran for President on the platform of:
- ELIMINATE THE US FED
- ELIMINATE US INCOME TAX
Income tax does not matter, due to astronomical debt and the longer we hitch our monetary future to the US FED the less our money will be worth.
I think I was one of the very few here who was saying, "I do not believe Obama will bring CHANGE!" It is quite simple ... he is part of a monopoly. When he allowed Penny Pritzger to run his campaign finance it was a done deal. I posted on that. There is no "lesser evil" ... there's just "evil"! That's all a monopoly is ... "abuse of power"!
Now what will happen this Nov? Hummmmm???? We will all vote out the incumbent like Mass and put a REP in! Brilliant thinking! You just voted the monopoly back in. You have to vote whatever Third Party is running ... period. You have to "vote out" the monopoly not the incumbent.
Now what Ron Paul and his son are trying to do is put people on the ballot who walk and talk like they do. They are "Republican" candidates who are actually Third Party anti-monopoly. Ron Paul and his son understand that American voters are too dimwitted to figure out the "monopoly" so they are posing as "monopoly" candidates. They understand the "lesser evil" mentality so they label themselves "Republican". If Ron Paul labeled himself a Libertarian then he wouldn't even get a invite to debate on TV.
By the way ... What ever happened to the AUDIT THE FED bill did that die a quiet death in the Senate?
Re: Our leader is speaking on cnbc now...
"...the man has the swagger of a king."
When I happen to look, I see him in an SS uniform.