Morning Call
[8:39am ET] One of my associates commented after the close yesterday, “The market started off 2010 with great style and power. But, we still have to see if this is just smoke and mirrors.” Another commented that “Traders have pulled out; this is all about liquidity being injected into markets by central banks.” I agreed with both. In fact, I’ll let you in on a secret – well maybe nothing I do is hush-hush – that might give a clue as to when liquidity is being pumped into the market. It’s the Celtic Tiger.
In the 1980’s, Ireland was considered an economic disaster, but with a few changes in the laws, which attracted foreign direct investment, the island nation became known as an “economic miracle”. Through the boom times from 1995 through 2007, the country was called the Celtic Tiger.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celtic_Tiger
After the financial Armageddon of 2008, Ireland sank into a depression. There are four commercial banks in the country that issue pound sterling banknotes: Allied Irish Banks (AIB), Anglo Irish Bank, Bank of Ireland (BIR), and Ulster Bank. As you can imagine, the economic depression has mostly sunk these banks. Only the UK taxpayer, under the Bank Recapitalisation Scheme, is keeping the doors open. This past year, there have been a few fraud investigators go through those doors.
Ulster Bank, as part of the Royal Bank of Scotland, and Anglo Irish Bank, are now state-owned.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_Irish_Banks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo_Irish_Bank
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_Ireland
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulster_Bank
Allied Irish Banks (AIB) and Bank of Ireland (BIR) trade on the Irish Stock Exchange (ISEQ) and form a large part of the ISEQ Financial Index.
http://www.ise.ie/
ISEQ-General price chart
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=charts&symbol=ISI%5eIEQP&redir=1
ISEQ-Financial index price chart
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=charts&symbol=ISI%5eIEUP&redir=1
Until the past hour today, the ISEQ-General index was down -1.13% and the ISEQ-Financial index was up +6.53%. That’s called “liquidity”. AIB, in fact, was up +10.37% and BIR up +7.48%. That’s where the liquidity is going. Thank you, Mr and Mrs UK Taxpayer.
I suspect that when the US and international equity markets start a pull-back – possibly this quarter – the Irish will be front and center. The ISEQ-Financial index started tumbling in September. You can watch this play out at ADVFN.com (World Exchanges).
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=countrysum&cid=13
Btw, we’ll be celebrating with the Irish at the Cara Bahamas 2010 Conference. You are welcome to join the fun.
CTA Trading Desk Report
Another tediously dull trading session with the extreme high-low range in the S&P 500 being less than 0.75%, money managers unsure how much more buying power to commit to the long side after the latest move higher.
It is hard to argue with the tape; Bears have been unable to make any headway knocking prices lower, even in this low volume environment. As whispers about an expanded quantitative easing program have begun to circulate, excess liquidity is finding its way into the equity market propping up stock prices. Rising prices force managers to chase performance, pushing risk aside to keep up with popular averages. The saga continues…
Financials (XLF +1.70%) shrugged off Meredith Whitney’s mildly negative earnings revision on Goldman Sachs (GS +1.77%), giving the market some support as early selling hit the market after Monday’s large advance. The profit-taking evaporated with a whimper and buyers emerged while nudging most averages slightly higher into the close (S&P +0.31%), but failing to motivate both buyers and sellers with most traders griping about the lack of price volatility. This narrow range further emboldened premium sellers with traders pushing the fear gauge lower (VIX -3.44%), nearing our warning level of 18.5-19 (close today 19.35).
Next week will kick off the beginning of the quarterly earnings reports and will be an important test for the equity market. If negative surprises fail to elicit any downside momentum, the Bulls will have scored an important victory as shorts will be forced to cover their large bearish bets in a low-volume trading environment. Conversely, stocks unable to rally even after better than expected earnings reports will be ripe for aggressive profit-taking.
As always the reaction to the news is more important than the actual numbers, and the price of a stock at the close is much more important than the opening print; hence the reason that some analysts key on the action of the final hour of trading, the domain of the so called “smart money” players.
Have a great evening.
Canada-USA World Junior Hockey Championship in a few minutes. Canada is shooting for their 6th straight Gold medal. The “smart money” is on Canada but the USA has a heckuva team. This game may be the best one played at any level this year.
Comments
CS says "potash back in demand" and recommends investing in it
[CS] Our global team has taken a positive stance on the potash sector, discussed in our report published today titled "Potash back in demand post China contract". We had previously been cautious on the potash-exposed names owing to the lack of pricing visibility in the market. Now, with the Chinese contracts finally settling, we believe investors have a solid entry point to buy into the industry's solid long-term fundamentals.
Improving near-term fundamentals with volume and price risk now biased to the upside. Our proprietary surveys suggest that demand will be robust in upcoming months. Empty inventories throughout the supply chain need to be restocked, potash prices are now attractively priced relative to corn, and farmer economics are favorable. Prices are also likely to move higher from current levels as Chinese contract prices have historically established the floor for the market and buyers have been waiting on the sidelines for the contracts to settle.
Adjusting EPS estimates and target prices: To reflect our revised potash prices forecasts following the Chinese contract, we are adjusting our EPS estimates for the North American fertilizer names with potash exposure. We are also revising our target prices to reflect the updated earnings estimates as well as to remove the discount we previously applied to factor in the lack of potash price visibility.
Rating changes: Based on our new target prices, we are upgrading POT to Outperform from Neutral, upgrading IPI to Neutral from Underperform, and maintaining MOS at Neutral. Our top pick among the North American potash names is POT, which we believes offers a compelling risk/reward profile owing to its significant leverage to the potash industry, an aggressive capacity expansion plan that positions the company well to benefit from the industry's solid long-term fundamentals, and an attractive valuation. We also continue to favor diverse fertilizer producer AGU, rated Outperform, which has somewhat limited exposure to the potash sector but is attractively valued and should benefit from positive fundamentals in the nitrogen and retail businesses.
Cara 100 Update
AMZN - PT Raised from $105 to $125 @ Credit Suisse. Neutral
DB - Barclays Initiates Coverage with an Overweight.
HBC - Barclays Initiates Coverage with an Overweight.
NKE - estimates, target boosted at UBS. Shares of NKE now seen reaching $68. Estimates also raised, because of accelerating international orders and improving gross margins. Neutral rating.
QCOM - rated new Outperform at Morgan Stanley. Coverage of QCOM was started with an Outperform rating. $57 price target. Company is highly leveraged to growth in communications equipment.
QCOM - PT Raised from $50 to $55 @ RBC. Outperform
RIMM - rated new Overweight at Morgan Stanley. $90 price target. Company has attractive potential volume growth overseas.
SNDK - Price Target Raised from $35 to $36 @ ThinkEquity. Buy
Re: CS says "potash back in demand" and recommends investing ...
Hi Bill,
I'm somewhat less sanguine about the near-term opportunities for potash. The China deal sets a low benchmark for prices and shows little evidence that there is either strong demand or growing shortages. Major new sources of supply are coming from Brazil, for example. With oil and gas prices rising, I don't see reasons for optimism in the farmyard. I have been watching the price of POT vs commodity price moves and believe that POT presents an opportunity when it trades in double digits while oil is at or below $70 a barrel. In the meantime, I'll wait for POT to come to me. JMO.
RBS up > 8%
Bill, is this related to the liquidity injection from the UK, too?
One way to play fertilizers chem upgrades is CMP
Near breakout, also has salt business for winter.
Re: CS says "potash back in demand" and recommends investing ...
terryC,
Your thoughtful reply to my posting of the CS report is a reminder to me to say that I publish the work of other analysts only for purposes of discussion. I may or may not agree with the contents.
In this case, as with many, there was a reversal of thinking at CS that I believed some investors might want to know about.
Presently I have no positions in any fertilizer stock.
Re: RBS up > 8%
number2son,
"Is (RBS today) related to the liquidity injection from the UK, too?"
Well, there are no other banks on my monitor that are up more than 1.7% presently, and RBS is up almost +9% and Barclays (BCS) is up over +4%.
This is NOT the independent part of the market bidding up those prices. It's a shame because it is taxpayer money behind it.
Re: RBS up > 8%
Thanks, Bill. On a related note, the 3x bear financial ETF, FAZ, is getting squashed. No time for heroes on that trade. I was stopped out early yesterday.
I'm also seeing SEED run again. Price advances come in spurts on heavy volume. Then drift down on light volume. The wide intra-day price swings are a day trader's joy (which I am not ;). Small position, I'm looking for this one to reach the mid-teens in next few weeks.
Re: RBS up > 8%
ALOHA!!
Bill, I agree as we Americans are "paying for" the US FED and its member banks like Goldman Sachs to payout those bonuses either directly via TARP or indirectly via bailouts of AIG. Yet here is the crux and this also applies to the UK taxpayers. It is NOT taxpayer money doing the bidding up of share prices it is the taxpayer debt and to be more precise it is the future of your kids at stake, because like me Bill, you and I will be older and grayer and probably not working much by time Stephanie and my kids are forced to take on the repercussions of the debt now being accumulated on "our behalf" in later years. This may not come as a surprise to most commoners who dwell outside DC and London but if debt isn't paid off it grows ... it expands at a more rapid rate until it becomes toxic and eventually kills the host, like some rabid Ebola virus. This applies to governments as well and it does not matter if government has the advantage of a printing press. The printing press only prolongs the misery of fiscal fraud in a way that only benefits those who are in control of debt. Since "sovereign debt" runs the markets then this brings me back to what Mises said, which is that we only have two choices ... "either government or the market" as there is no third or fourth choice. Right now we have government. We voted for it.
A concrete example is the US Treasury Daily Statement on December 31st.
TOTAL OUTLAYS = $186BIL USD
TOTAL NET TAX REVENUES = $9.1BIL USD
That's $20 dollars of outlays(spending) for every dollar of revenues, a 20:1 leverage. Now if you add in the debt for that day then the leverage jumps to 55:1. This is why I call the US Dollar a "debt derivative" as the leverage now being employed is the same as a derivative. In actuality then the stock markets in the US and UK are being leveraged by "margin" but mainly by "sovereign debt". Two levels of "debt" run markets now.
You can look at any day of any Fiscal Year and you will see that Americans never live within their means. It does not matter whether you as an individual are "debt free" without a mortgage or not as the US Treasury is accumulating debt on "your behalf". You are paying for this "free lunch" through taxes, but thanks to the continuing re-election of the same TWO PARTY MONOPOLY for over 100 years your taxes no longer matter, because the debt is so unpayable and so onerous that tax revenues pay a tiny portion of actual outlays and as baby-boomers leave the work force taxes will have even a much smaller impact. We were debt free as a Nation in 1835 and Andrew Jackson had to get rid of central bankers to do it. Centralizing power is always corrupting as that power eventually grows into a monopoly. The US Constitution calls for States powers when it comes to fiscal responsibility, but now all the States are dependent on the US Treasury for their survival.
Why do we need income tax?
Why do we need the US FED?
IVAN The Terrible, follow-up
Makes new 52 weeks highs. Hope someone with knowledge of the sector benefitted
"Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Dropped 16%"
http://bit.ly/56SX7z
"Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Dropped 16%"
"Compared with November 2008, pending sales were up 19.3 percent"
Funny how a story can spin data for good or bad news. both sentences are true and imply opposite extreme sentiments.
Are they journalists or hb&b jackals?
Re: "Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Dropped 16%"
This data, as a lot of others, is always published in month to month and year to year forms. What was published today is not exception, and has rather negative comments to it. Here is full text:
January 05, 2010 10:00:02 AM
*(US) NOV PENDING HOME SALES (M/M): -16.0% V -2.0%E; (first decline since Jan 2009) (Y/Y): +19.3% V 31.0%E
- prior m/m revised from +3.7% to +3.9%
- prior y/y revised from 28.6% to 28.7%
- Pending sales indices dropped in every region in November.
- NAR Chief Economist: "It will be at least early spring before we see notable gains in sales activity as home buyers response to the recently extended and expanded tax credit."
- biggest m/m decline on record going back to the start of the data series in 2001.
I don't see anything wrong, deceptive or out of the ordinary with above quote. Let's be real, OK? This excessive anger and active search of yet another reason for yet another rant adds nothing to perception of reality nor to ability to navigate our way through the markets.
Re: "Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Dropped 16%"
All those numbers are smoothed over behind big black curtains by those various information gathering agencies anyway.
C-SPAN is fighting to televise all the health care negotiations in congress also. NO...NO...NO....
Trying to reload
fto at $ 12.60... probably won't see it below $ 12.80, but looking foward to 2010.. watching for any key pullback on celg ( $ 53.00 ? - don't believe it will close the $ 48.00 area Cramer and Dan Fitzpatrick talked about in Nov.)..top pick for several in 10'...will really be watching some select bio's around the $ 3.00 range... ceph looks to be digesting recent move.. I tend to think, with several patent exp.'s coming around 2012, that a large cap bio. will get bought this year..
Brief overview of current situation from day trader's porch
Below is a quote from our trading room, about 30 min ago. Hope it helps.
[11:56] {Threei} here is what happens with trading activity guys, so we understand where we are, why it's so tough right now and what to expect.
For about a year, starting from last fall, we had enormous, pratcically unprecedented volatility,
VIX hit all time records if I remember correct.
What happens next, when the pendulum goes this far?
Naturally, it snaps all the way back - we are going through other extreme right now,
hours and hours with no movement, day after day.
While nice volatility was there, we had no problem with profiting day after day with many days running at 90-100%.
VIX is around 20 now, volatility all but died,
so what's next?
Another snap back with sharp increase in volatility.
This is when we go through two stages:
first being, adjusting to some changes in the movements, spotting new sectors, spotting which patterns work now,
and second being, return to normal steady profits, with occasional bouts of momo movers bringing icing on the cake.
So there you go, brief overview of the situation and expectations, all who are at it for years see nothing out of ordinary - just a phase, while newer traders percieve it differently somewhat, with feeling that it all happens for the first time ever.
The Greatest Market Gift, Ever.....
2008 and 2009 will be talked about for decades. Bad and worse. But look what we got to witness... greed and fear at its absolute.. We got to see the manipulation of solid stocks like TCK and FCX, as they fell to insane levels.. We saw the true colors of the money-men at GS, JPM, BAC etc... We saw the bought and paid for politicans.. We saw bubblevision as the outlander it is... And we saw great trades... My Gosh, did we see some trades.. Dow, S&P and Nasdaq rises that had no explanation at all ( except for the good ol' back-room boys at fomc )... And now we all are here... and I love it... Because, we All have a roadmap, a wonderful, high-lighted, digital roadmap. We know the players and their cons... we know their fears... Let's get it on... To everyone: Great trading, smart trading, bold trading to all in 2010 and beyond. To all of the fantastic posters, Vad, Kaimu, Team, NYU, 2 nd/, Loan, Gyrm, Bull, and on and on... And to Bill: you made so much possible.. thanks for your guts and smarts and time. Enjoy the weather and waves and friends..
UUP
+1.5M shares bought just after 12:00 ET
everything new will get old
dead kennedys - jello biafra
"In the fall of 1979, Biafra ran for mayor of San Francisco as a prank, using the Jello ad campaign catchphrase, "There's always room for Jello", as his campaign slogan. ... His platform included unconventional points such as forcing businessmen to wear clown suits within city limits..."
"In June of 1979, Biafra co-founded the record label Alternative Tentacles..."
http://www.jellobiafra.org/index.php?option=com_co...
;)
Re: "Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Dropped 16%"
My understanding is, pending home sales typically track down after the summer selling season ends. So m/m Nov should be lower than Oct - it would be a surprise if it were not. Ritholtz often has a good chart that describes this. (I can't get to his site right now or I'd post the link)
The objection I have to these reports is when in the springtime the reporters say how surprised they are that home sales m/m are higher in June than they were in May. They shouldn't be - it happens that way every year. Likewise, home sales m/m in Nov are less than in Oct.
We shouldn't be surprised when pending home sales in Dec are lower m/m than pending sales in Nov...
Re: "Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Dropped 16%"
Bloomberg is being deceptive. They could have easily lead with the headline up x% from November 2008.
I am not angry. Just pointing out that bloomberg is manipulating the manipulated data.
And it does move markets. Just like the phony unemployment #.
Re: "Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Dropped 16%"
There are quite a few of reports and their interpretations that make little to no sense... you want ultimate nonsense, look no further than weekly oil inventories - IMO, the most glaring example of absolutely meaningless numbers. Yet, market waits for them and reacts on them... shrug. Just a part of every day's reality.
true to form gold couldnt
true to form gold couldnt move past yesterdays high with any real conviction, and is now doing a little dance called the drop step.
1115 and counting, little to no real support until the 1075 mark as i read the charts.
volume was lacking on yesterday's jump for the gold miners, and is almost or equal already with a few hours to go on the down side. we have seen this one many many times before.
i do not belive this is the filling of any gap, nor do i believe this is an indication of the USD bounce failing, it has all the looks of a weak bounce in gold. but the week ending results will give us a more realistic idea if there is any legs to all this. the weak volume situation must change at some point in the gold market for anything of significance to occur upwards IMHO. i have felt for some time that gold miners will not ever break out of their multi year maliase relative to gold until volume picks back up and we see breakouts well beyond the recent 52 week highs, and retests on reasonable support, not %50 plunges the moment gold stops climbing.
best of luck.
DELL, cara company may have some smarts
This cloud computing thing I got the heads up here may be morphing:
http://tinyurl.com/yajcdt6
Re: Brief overview of current situation from day trader's porch
A belated happy new year to everyone.
Vad,
I am getting some nice movement in some of the stocks I am watching with set ups.(DTG,CMI) I have been reluctant to enter the trade due to the lack of volumn. About 1/4 to 1/2 of average. Is this fear justified?
Bob
Trades Today
I closed out 1/3 of my options on BAC (Feb $14 calls) that I bought yesterday at a nice little profit just now at $2.21. I still think this runs to at least $17 by February, which is why I'm holding on to the others.
I sold the rest of my KNDI this morning at $5.80 that I bought yesterday at $5. That was a nice gain and I don't want to get greedy.
I bought some LCRD at $6.06 this morning. This one looks cheap to me. They have a lot of cash and are cheap on a price to earnings basis.
Is anyone buying IBM at $130, which was previous resistance? If you're a gambler, the Feb $120 calls might work for you at $11.10 as a play on earnings later this month.
Re: Brief overview of current situation from day trader's porch
Volume returns actually:
Tuesday, January 05, 2010 2:00:31 PM
Market Internals update at 2:00pmET
- NYSE volume 685M shares, about 7% above its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 1.1:1.
- NASDAQ volume 1.59B shares, about 22% above its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 1.3:1.
- VIX index -1.1% to just under 20.00
Since it's a first active day after long period of sitting tight, I'd say yeah, why jump all in... better to ease in, make sure it's not a one day wonder
Re: true to form gold couldnt
Gold has been capped at $1125 in NY for the past two days. It was no surprise to see gold drop as equity markets weakened today. The worst case scenario for the NY boyz would be to have gold rise while the DOW crashes. This would send shivers through the not-for-profit NY sellers and likely require a buzz to Obama's red phone. It is always interesting to see that gold can rise or at least stay even when Asian equity markets drop but never ever does this occur in NY. As it was from September to early December 2009, gold's price rise in the short to medium term will be determined by Asian overnight buying vs. relentless NY paper selling. The battle will again be noteworthy.
Cheers
Re: "Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Dropped 16%"
"Sales gains are helping to bring an end to the almost two- year drop in payrolls. The U.S. lost 11,000 jobs in November, the fewest since the recession began in December 2007, according to Labor Department data released last month. Economists surveyed project the government will say on Jan. 8 that payrolls were unchanged in December."
This comment, like so many, is a zero.
Were there fewer layoffs in November because they are at rock bottom now and laying off more would prevent them from doing business at all? Were they employing until after Christmas shopping ended? (UPS laid off 100 part time employees here today.)
Or did they simply change the yardstick? I seem to recall the 11,000 figure came about the time they "discovered" they had miscounted early in the year and said losses were less than previously reported.
I have long since believed any gov. data.
The newly Obama appointed former FBI guy is said to have "mischaracterized his testimony" during the approval hearing. He now says, "It wasn't someone else who did it, it was me and I did it not once, but twice."
The guy flat out LIED and someone found him out. Mischaracterized? Give me a break. I guess it not only, "Depends on what is, IS," but on whether someone finds out Who Is Who!
Vad/NVDA
Out of NVDA for +11% today.
Re: true to form gold couldnt
"The worst case scenario for the NY boyz would be to have gold rise while the DOW crashes"
There is a very tidy looking hs top in the dow gold ratio running back to April on the daily chart , perhaps they have their work cut out for them.
Re: true to form gold couldnt
ALOHA !!
True ... but silver and oil are still up and eight of the thirteen currencies I follow are not confirming when that happens it is a very rare day when the gold price collapses.
Add in that the US Treasury is in complete disarray and doing a TARP every month now, whether we want it or not.
The EWR, a report I follow, moved the US Dollar World Velocity(USDWV) up two points well inside the defined Stage Two while here inside America we are still trapped in Stage One Velocity(USDUS). In other words foreigners are more aware of America's US Treasury debt woes and where that is leading to than Americans are. I believe that to be a 100% true analysis.
Re: Vad/NVDA
WTG. Nice gain and stress-free trade.
F just keeps going up
A year ago F was trading south of 3 bucks a share... today they are bouncing off 11 bucks! New car sales up 33%?
Is F a long term buy/hold/forget at 11.00?
Re: F just keeps going up
Who'd a thunk it? - Still with global overcapacity in autos BEFORE Cherry from China and Nano from India really get going at home and in global export markets, how can F make long-term sense? Just asking ....
Re: F just keeps going up
I wouldn't be caught dead looking inside a Nano let alone driving one!
Ford...I'd consider it if I wasn't a GM alumni.
Ford didn't lock onto the tarp give-aways like GM and chrysler so they do know how to manage a company in a very tough economy.
RSI7d is 78 RSI7w is 84 RSI7m is 76.....I'll probably pass on F for now.
Re: F just keeps going up
"Still with global overcapacity in autos BEFORE Cherry from China and Nano from India really get going at home and in global export markets, how can F make long-term sense? Just asking ...." - jock
That's easy: Grab massive market share from its two bankrupt competitors and wait patiently to negotiate UAW contract under the threat of going NON-UNION. F is run by savvy people. CEO is tops. GM product line, including the Volt with uncompetitive sticker price, is doomed. GM board is run my UAW .... no hope.
No position.
FT on declining US power
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3ef8f012-f969-11de-8085-...
(accessible with free signup)
"On the last day of the talks, the Americans tried to fix up one-to-one meetings between Mr Obama and the leaders of South Africa, Brazil and India – but failed each time. The Indians even said that their prime minister, Manmohan Singh, had already left for the airport .....
So what is going on? The answer is that Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and India are all countries whose identities as democracies are now being balanced – or even trumped – by their identities as developing nations that are not part of the white, rich, western world. All four countries have ruling parties that see themselves as champions of social justice at home and a more equitable global order overseas. Brazil’s Workers’ party, India’s Congress party, Turkey’s AKP and South Africa’s African National Congress have all adapted to globalisation – but they all retain traces of the old suspicions of global capitalism and of the US"
What's to be suspicious of? the 800 US military bases outside the US? Wall St? Naaaahhhhh ....
Denison Mines
Hi All - I have maintained a position on this one through last year and doubled the holding once it started showing life this spring. Anyone see any news to trigger 3X usual volume and a nice percentage move today. Happy Trading
Re: "Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Dropped 16%"
NYUGrad,
The news surrounding the up and down of US Home Sales relates to both seasonal trends and the the high percentage of first time buyers entering the market prior to clarity around the tax incentives. Many industry advisors consider the first timers to be nearing tapped out stage so sales will drop off in that market sector as spring nears and rates rise. As Vad says, just market forces at work, however volatile or inconvenient. Naturally local factors vary widely. Our high foreclosure rate of entry level homes is extending the first time buyer action in Pacific NW. We are also drawing savvy investors to our region seeking extreme values in the high priced (now down drastically) spread.
Re: "Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Dropped 16%"
I am a real time gauge for NJ and Raleigh NC. I am listing my NJ home Feb 1. Listing price will be a little lower than i had bought. But i am hoping for a quick sale.
We shall see how Raleigh NC is. But I suspect prices have not risen as some reports claim. the only areas where prices might be higher now than 2 yrs ago are those areas that were devastated since 2-4 yrs ago. like Las Vegas/AZ. sure if the house was sold for $450k 3 yrs ago and it went to $150k last yr, it might have gone up a smidge this yr. But any stable area, prices are soft and down 3-5% in order to get a buyer to close.
I am hunkering down all short term and long term debt tied to America asap. raising capital and pulling out of the system. Booyah!
Re: "Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Dropped 16%"
Raleigh eh? My alma mater is MOO U! Nice civilized college town nicely poised between mountains and sea.
Perhaps you've seen the housing data? http://www.city-data.com/housing/houses-Raleigh-No...
Summary of educational content
This is a repeat of the post from 12/22/2009, to make sure that those who were vacationing or missed it for whatever reason see it in time for the Conference.
A lot of topics we discussed over last couple years, systematized and broken by categories for easy navigation:
http://www.realitytrader.com/blog/2009/12/blog-sum...
A bit broader version, and the one that is going to be updated as new articles are added is at http://www.realitytrader.com/freelessons.html
2010 Freeport Conference attendees, please make sure to go over these links in order get the most out of the conference.
Enjoy!
Re: F just keeps going up
Ford sales up 33%?
As one who ran a business for forty+ years I'd suggest checking a bit deeper if thinking of investing. (ST trades a whole different story.)
Did they make a profit.
Did they give away a house or condo with each car (or similar incentive)?
Sales numbers and percentages are a shell game. Get actual dollar figures.
Energy Investors
For those of you interested/concerned in viable energy alternatives and related investments, I am providing the following link (I have no vested interests):
http://www.steorn.com/
The site offers comprehensive proof of concept, but these guys are not the only entrepreneurs out there working in this field. There are DOZENS of these guys around the world waiting patiently in the wings for the political situation to change so that they may safely bring these things to a developmental stage... The history of this stuff is both long and bloody. The "gate-keepers" of this knowledge no longer command the resources necessary to keep it hidden, and in the near future the conceptual basis of the currently held model of physics will necessarily be re-written to account for what once was believed to be impossible. This is the future. This is what will replace our toxic addiction to oil. And it will do so with astounding rapidity when finally allowed to be fully developed. Thank goodness....Oh,yeah, and by the way, I suspect there is money to be made!
Ding dong, the witch is dead... the wicked witch is DEAD!.... (almost anyway)...lol...
Happy New YEAR!
Oh Dem Dems!
An endangered species? http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/06/us/politics/06do...
Christopher Dodd is apparently accepting the consequences of his own actions in accepting bribe loans from Angelo Mozillo after all? One less fox guarding the henhouse!
Re: Energy Investors
MtnGntx - Certainly it would be very interesting if the Conservation of Energy thing turned out to be wrong, but long before Big Oil was around, people were demonstrating perpetual motion machines that were in fact not what they claimed to be.
Wiki has an interesting article on this subject, and it mentions the company you refer to:
"As the term "perpetual energy" increasingly became associated with fraud in the late 19th century, inventors have generally come to avoid using it. One common alternative term used is "over-unity," even though it has essentially the same meaning. Today devices described as perpetual motion devices claim to operate by extracting "zero point energy" or some other source of external energy. Modern demonstrations of such machines sometimes involve using a small battery (called an exciter) to spin a flywheel which then turns a generator to (briefly) illuminate a common mains-powered type of lightbulb; this is a straightforward conversion between potential and kinetic energy
Steorn Ltd., a company that claims to generate energy using only permanent magnets. However, a jury of scientists convened by Steorn to appraise their claim found no energy being produced."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perpetual_motion
Re: Oh Dem Dems!
Well, Susan, you know me by now. I want justice and action to prevent anymore of this kind of "leadership".
Sure, it's good to see him go, but...
As usual he, like previous DC hangers-on, leaves with a bundle of cash and nothing will be done about his unethical (criminal more likely) behavior.
He should be stripped of his key to the "Gentlemen's washroom", tarred and feathered and ridden out of town on a rail. Instead he will retain benefits far better than any honest citizen for himself and his spouse. The rest of us can look forward to the rotten fruits of his tenure.
What is there in this story to dissuade any others, now or in the future, from following his example?
Grym (Grim today?)
Re: Oh Dem Dems!
Smart move by HB&B. Removing Dodd makes Peter Schiff lose some momentum. Heroes need enemies to fight.
Re: Oh Dem Dems!
Pardon me but I stand 'corrected': Apparently Senator Dodd was acquitted of any wrong doing by the Senate Ethics Committee. Guessing some other insiders don't wish to point fingers for fear of having them cut off?
Re: Oh Dem Dems!
"Guessing some other insiders don't wish to point fingers for fear of having them cut off?"
Hey, cutting off their fingers! Not a bad idea.
Maybe branding their foreheads with a scarlet dollar sign too? ];-)