Morning Call [7:59am ET] Computer issues have slowed me down this precious morning, so I’ll keep this blog short.
There appears to me to be a significant reversal in the strength of the USD. A weaker dollar will likely push prices of equities, precious metals and commodities like oil higher and bonds lower. I anticipate seeing the currencies of commodity producer countries like Canada, Australia and Brazil gain strength against the US Dollar. Nobody has the answer as to how long and deep the US Dollar might fall here, but I believe there will be a significant impact on capital market prices. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil ($WTIC), for instance, is likely to pop above $80 and $GOLD will move soon to a record high above $1260, likely to $1350, as a guess.
As to the reasons why, I think it could be a combination of (i) Quantitative Easing II, and (ii) the passing of so-called financial services reform, in the US.
Have a great day.
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Traders used early strength to lighten long positions as JP Morgan’s headline-earning number beat estimates (JPM+0.03%). Prices wilting, the market momentarily appearing fatigued after its recent upside jaunt. Selling pressure quickly evaporated and equities marked time for the balance of the session until CNBC reported Goldman Sachs (GS+4.12%) had reached a settlement with the SEC. Within seconds buyers emerged reaching for any and all offers as the broad averages cruised upward into the closing bell eking out a small gain for the day (S&P+0.10%).
The Euro (FXE+1.32%) was on fire again today with growth prospects for the US economy dwindling, the dreaded double-dip recession chatter being bantered about by many market participants.
Although many are worried about the so-called jobless recovery, price action has certainly been constructive the past several weeks. Overbought momentum readings have been ignored, prices doggedly plodding higher, steamrolling shorts and forcing performance-oriented managers to chase prices.
Price momentum triggers similar orders from the black box boyz, stretching stocks further in either direction, excesses steadily mounting. In this brave new world 90% days (90% of the daily volume channeled into declining or advancing issues) are becoming commonplace for the first time in modern stock market history. It seems that fading daily directional excess rarely pays off intraday, as prices seem to close at session extremes, so contrarian bets are best placed at the close.
The most logical time for a downside reversal now looks to be late Monday or early Tuesday next week. Option expiry Fridays rarely implode when prices have been well bid earlier in the week. Support and resistance remains unchanged from the levels mentioned this past week.
Have a great evening.
Comments
JPM Results
JPMorgan Chase Reports Second-Quarter 2010 Net Income Of $4.8 Billion, Or $1.09 Per Share, On Revenue Of $25.6 Billion
Includes Benefit From Reduction In Loan Loss Reserves ($0.36 Per Share) And Charge For U.K. Bonus Tax ($0.14 Per Share)
Excluding exceptional items that's an EPS of 87 cents. The fact that they have been able to pare their loan loss reserves is a good sign, I think.
FAZ
bought some premarket @ 13.78. do your own homework
Statement 159
STATEMENT 159
The second-quarter results may include gains taken under a U.S. accounting rule known as Statement 159, adopted by the Financial Accounting Standards Board in 2007, which allows banks to book profits when the value of their bonds falls from par. The rule expanded the daily marking of banks’ trading assets to their liabilities, under the theory that a profit would be realized if the debt were bought back at a discount.
In practice, it’s an accounting "abomination" because fluctuations in the value of the debt don’t change the amount the banks owe, said Chris Kotowski, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co. in New York. "Just because Morgan’s credit spreads widened out this quarter doesn’t mean that their ultimate interest and principal payments changed one iota," Kotowski said. "The market will back it out, both on the upside and the downside."
http://tinyurl.com/2783prq
AA
traded yesterday where it was Friday pre ER.
Empire manufacturing
19.57 June
5.08 July
Nothing new with unemployment claims.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
BA - Boeing Upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citi. Citigroup assumed coverage of Boeing and upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold citing its positive view on the aerospace cycle and valuation. The firm raised its target for shares to $80 from $73.
IBM - IBM Initiated with a Hold at Kaufman Bros. Kaufman Bros. believes that IBM's revenue growth may continue to disappoint investors but the firm thinks the stock's current P/E multiple appears to be justified. Target $135.
JNPR - Juniper Downgraded at Oppenheimer. The firm downgraded the stock on valuation, and what it sees as volatility in the timing of carrier spending.
JNPR - Juniper Initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan. Target $30.50
SNDK - SanDisk coverage assumed with a Neutral at JP Morgan. Target $50.
Jobs numbers
I'm have a hard time putting the recently released numbers into context. Since the extended benefits bill was not passed I assumed the continuing claims would have dropped, not gone up. For the initial claims I'd like to know what the typical number is for a moderately growing economy. I guess I am more cynical than most. I have gotten to the point where I don't believe most of the data the government posts.
Miners down again
With the exception of BHP Billiton all the miners are down today. Perhaps this points the way to a stronger dollar.
Rio Tinto -1.55%
JPM
now trading below open AND previous close
Re: Miners down again
Equities and miners are quite soft in the past few minutes, but the USD is also very weak. I think that after several bullish days in a row, the S&P needed a break. It will likely now test the 1080 before moving up to the 1105 and then 1120 before I think we'll have a major sell-off. The gains in the Euro are too impressive to ignore.
Cara 100 Update
AMZN - Downgraded at BofA/Merrill to Neutral from Buy on margin concerns. Maintain $14 price target.
Re: Empire manufacturing
nothing new with jobless claims? that's a great drop in my opinion for the bulls, no? isn't that what the bear case is all about? that jobs aren't coming back.
Re: Empire manufacturing
I dont treat jobless claims like earnings; beat or miss expectations.
For the bull scenario I would need to see consecutive weeks of adding jobs.
with the end of benefits extension this yr or eventually. every 400k+ newly filed unemployment claims is just adding the timeline to main street recession.
This may just be the new normal moving fwd, 9%+ unemployment for a very long time.
Bill, Why The miners and POG remain to be weak here?
Any idea? they all have been screaming oversold for few days now but still the bleeding continues. Seems they refused to go up with the recent market bounce when it did go up and now agrees to go down with it just for the ride, what the hell. Can't seem to understand how Gold and Gold shares trade these days any more :)
Help... :)
SPY gap from 7-13
Perhaps it's my quirk but I don't like unfilled gaps. Now this one from Tuesday has been filled on this sell-down.
RE: Empire manufacturing
The Empire State Mfg index was reported at 10 am ET as
19.57 prior
18.0 consensus expectation per Econoday
5.08 actual
New orders declined from 17.53 to 10.13
Employment declined from 12.35 to 7.94
The Philly Fed index was reported at 10 am ET as (market looked at this as confirming the Empire index)
8.0 prior
12.0 consensus expectation per Econoday
5.1 actual
New orders index fell 13 points, to first negative reading in 12 months
Indexes for both delivery times and unfilled orders fell and were in negative territory this month.
Indexes for both employment and average workweek were slightly positive this month after registering negative readings in June.
From Zero Hedge: Lastly, the Initial Jobless Claims came in at 429,000 from 458,000 the week before, a number made irrelevant after various automakers announced they would continue summer production in autoplants that otherwise get shutdown for the period, thus skewing the seasonal adjustment. Indeed the Non Seasonally Adjusted number for the week surged from 468,492 to 513,347. Perhaps most relevantly for the economy, the collapse in those collecting EUC and extended benefits continues, with both categories coming in lower, at -236,162 and -18,580.
Re: Miners down again
Bill,
Noting where $SPX was at your time stamp, major kudos on your insightfulness! During the next 30 minutes we did indeed go to
1,080.53
Terrane Metals - TRX.V
Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. Enters Into Agreement to Acquire Terrane Metals Corp.
http://tinyurl.com/37a79r3
-- Thompson Creek to acquire Terrane for C$0.90 in cash and 0.052 Thompson Creek common shares per Terrane share-- Thompson Creek concurrently enters into 25% Mt. Milligan gold stream sale with Royal Gold-- Goldcorp agrees to vote in favour of the transaction and currently holds 52% of Terrane's shares, on a fully diluted basis-- Transaction advances development of the Mt. Milligan project in British Columbia
Re: Empire manufacturing
ALOHA!!
Another angle other than just NY manufacturing(Empire Manufacturing Index) that I prefer is the direct link to the outlays the US Treasury publishes. This covers all of the USA and not just NY state. I look at this data as the "best case scenario" given that government data is "managed" then the Daily Statements show government spending in its best light, which really looks bad in proper context when compared to prior "pre-BUBBLE" years, like FY 2006 and "post-BUBBLE years like FY 2009 and FY 2010, just as "confirmed" baselines.
Here are the numbers from two jobs related line items as of JULY 13th ...
FY2010
Unemployment Benefits-$126BIL or $14BIL per month
Labor Programs - $12.5BIL or $1.4BIL per month
TOTAL = $138.5BIL or $15.4BIL per month
FY 2009
Unemployment Benefits-$84BIL or $9.3BIL per month
Labor Programs - $10.2BIL or $1.13BIL per month
TOTAL = $94.2BIL or $10.5BIL per month
FY2006
Unemployment Benefits-$25BIL or $2.7BIL per month
Labor Programs - $10.4BIL or $1.15BIL per month
TOTAL = $26.15BIL or $2.9BIL per month
So here we sit with the official unemployment rate at 9.5%(June) down some from the 10.2% high in FY 2009, yet "spending" on benefits has not shown a decline to reflect less benefits paid. The unemployment rate in 2006 was around 4.7%. The US Treasury is spending some 530% more on Unemployment Benefits and Labor Programs in FY2010 than they did in FY 2006. That means the unemployment rate in 2006 doubled yet spending has increased since then over 5 times. Sorry US Treasury and BLS, but that does not compute! If I use US Treasury benefits spending as a guide then the unemployment rate would be closer to 23%, 5 times 4.7% FY2006 official unemployment rate. Now 23% "feels" right since I see 1 in 5 Hawaiians on food stamps and 1 in 7.6 nationwide on food stamps(40.5 million Americans as of March).
Perhaps one could say the benefits went up since 2006 but I doubt it since benefits are paid based on other criteria that effect just how much you get paid and that criteria has not changed.
Eligibility and amount
Generally, the worker must be unemployed through no fault of his/her own (generally through lay-offs). Unemployment benefits are based on reported covered quarterly earnings. The amount of earnings and the number of quarters worked are used to determine the length and value of the unemployment benefit. The average weekly payment is 36 percent of the individual's average weekly wage.
Yet most Americans are unemployed but do not qualify for Unemployment benefits, some two thirds of Americans unemployed.
The majority of Americans out of work do not qualify for unemployment insurance. This includes part-time, temporary, and self-employed workers.
LINK: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?story...
Those people that do not qualify are not counted as "unemployed". I guarantee you they are being counted at the Welfare/Food Stamp offices and probably more than a few over at the local jail.
The above data questions the validity of the official unemployment rate and the credibility of the BLS and its "counting models". Is the Empire Manufacturing credible any more? The US FED NY puts out the Empire Manufacturing numbers. Is the US FED any more credible than the BLS? What government and bank data exactly is credible these days? In a World of "super" agendas is the "truth" possible?
Re: Miners down again
George,
For a couple hours yesterday I thought trading flow got back to normal, but there are so many cross-currents in markets today, I truly don't know where we are. I noted this morning that despite the other stocks in Europe being up, including the Greek and Irish banks, I was concerned that the big French and German banks were soft, definitely running against the grain. The Spanish bond auction went very well, so this is all too confusing. I'm starting to think that HB&B are pulling markets back until the financial services bill is actually approved for the President's signature.
These banks can pull the plug or open the spigot any minute they want with their best clients, private equity and hedge funds. If just one of them tried that, they'd soon lose the business, so the pressure has to be a team effort by HB&B.
Let's see what happens when the vote is done.
Computer problems persist
Whether I use cable or dsl, I can only download at 1 kb/sec and this is awfully frustrating today.
Re: Empire manufacturing
"Those people that do not qualify are not counted as "unemployed". I guarantee you they are being counted at the Welfare/Food Stamp offices and probably more than a few over at the local jail."
I was self employed as you are and not qualified, but times were pretty good until just before I retired. My son will not requalify for unemployment until he works full time, for one year with the same employer. He was cut to 32 hours 3 months short of qualification this spring. He is one of the lucky ones not laid off — yet. (He's been let go twice before.)
There was an article in our local paper this morning with an appeal for donations to one of the food pantries. It seems many who used to donate are now there to receive food. As one of the volunteers pointed out, "It is much harder to get along now that less money has fallen to no money."
In January it was announced that 6 times as many families as one year ago were now regular recipients.
I dare Obama to show up here and say, "We are on the right track."
F S Bill
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/top/all/710...
Re: Computer problems persist
Bill -
Slow downloads may be from too much software running at one time. Try start up mechanic (shutdown some software), a defrag, and ad-ware and registery clean up. Usually works miracles for me when I go slow on the net. Your processor is hogtied.
Cheers.
Re: Empire manufacturing
Man, bears are tough to please. If its good there must be a reason why. If it's bad then it will only get worse.
I wonder when exactly he will announce his election...
... exploratory committee?
http://dailypaul.com/node/140058
Re: F S Bill
Did you see the bounce along with the 60-38 vote result?
Next vote is around 2pm, so let's see if there is a link there too?
Tonight there ought to be the Presidential signature and tomorrow maybe we can get back to business as usual. Reform? I doubt it will stop HB&B in any relevant or material way.
Re: Empire manufacturing
Thanks kaimu. Add to the ranks of unemployed receiving benefits those that now don't, and we may be near the inaugural of a U.S. version of Bastille Day. Reuters presents the stark numbers here:
"During the Senate impasse, from the week ended June 5 to the week ended July 10, more than 2.1 million Americans lost their benefits. Another million will join them by July 31.
In Ohio alone, where unemployment stood at 10.7 percent in May, more than 83,000 people lost their benefits in June."
Three million dropped from benefits in two weeks as pointed out by Sinclair. OMG. Expect riots in Nov as the nominees let the mud fly.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE66D0LB201007...
Cheers.
Edit: Let's not forget to add the $10 billion buried in the House war-funding bill to avoid public school teacher layoffs.
Re: F S Bill
1 KB doesn't seem to be hampering your abilities.
trading by HB&B
Is there anything in the financial reform bill that addresses the collusion in trading by the HB&B? Are we still going to have the game rigged for the house?
Liking the Action
I think there is a chance we close up big. I like the lower credit losses from JP Morgan and the unemployment claims numbers were solid and in general so too have been the earnings numbers. I think people will focus on those and I would be afraid to be short.
FD:
I'm long about 75%. I think the markets rally hard in spite of everyones bearishness.
Culprits and Scapegoats
A few days ago I promised a post explaining my position on HFT. Here it is:
http://blog.realitytrader.com/2010/07/culprits-and...
Especially actual as we are about to get toothless and useless, if not outright harmful, finreg bill.
Re: Liking the Action
If house prices are continuing to decline, bankruptcies are continuing to increase, employment is stagnant at best, wages are flat, why would you reduce your loan loss reserves at this time, other than to pump up earnings for the quarter? This is setting up JPM for an elevator ride down if credit doesn't improve.
Re: Empire manufacturing
ALOHA!!
from the week ended June 5 to the week ended July 10, more than 2.1 million Americans lost their benefits. Another million will join them by July 31.
But I am not seeing any of that reflected in "lesser" Unemployment Benefit outlays at the US Treasury. Wouldn't it not be logical that if less people are on Unemployment then less benefits would be paid out at the US Treasury? When I look at July outlay numbers they look the same as they always have.
Compared year-over-year as the US Treasury data points out Unemployment has sky-rocketed the past couple years and stayed there. Every other "welfare" outlay line item has also.
WHERE'S THIS AMERICAN ECONOMIC RECOVERY?
Re: Liking the Action
Housing prices have been rising according to Case Shiller. CC delinquencies are going down. Jobs numbers are +500k for the past 4 months (ex consensus). Where are you getting your numbers from?
Re: F S Bill
When FinReg actually passes, we should rally. This is a way weak bill that hardly does anything bad for the big banks.
The fear would be that if it stalls for whatever reason now, it may need to get a bit tougher to gain more support.
Re: Liking the Action
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1519057920100715
FinReg bill final vote
14:46:19
(US) As voting continues, Senate tops 50 yes votes needed for passage of FinReg bill in final vote
- With final vote, bill goes to President's desk to sign into law
- Final Vote: 60-39
Checkmark. Mission accomplished.
Re: Liking the Action
ahhh..i forgot about Fin Reg today. The easy trade was for the market to go higher after it so it probably won't. That should set up the market to move higher with the fewest people on board as possible.
This just sent market up screaming
15:28:06
*SEC TO HOLD CONFERENCE AT 16:45ET; TO MAKE 'SIGNFICANT ANNOUNCEMENT'
- SEC does not mention the specific topic.
- Note: GS shares are moving higher after the comment from the SEC on speculation it could be a settle agreement. Current deadline for formal response to the fraud charge from Goldman is 7/19.
Re: Liking the Action
So just looking at the sectors - except solar stocks which tend to track the euro - our fearless leader today is XLU, which generally does not say "bull move" to me. XLU has been at the top most of the day. Bonds, too, are up, as is the VIX. But one point of interest - discretionary is doing well also, and we still have the most interesting half hour left.
One interesting result is INTC, which has printed a doji so far today on high volume. But who is smart money and who is the crowd on that one? I certainly don't know, but with the RSI at 74, I'm not feeling any urge to be a buyer.
I'm becoming more in tune with Bill's concept about us small fry not having to take risk to chase performance. I really feel no urge at all to buy here. If I let this rally go by, morningstar doesn't downgrade me, I don't screw up my bonus - it doesn't cost me a thing.
OK so I wrote some GG puts this morning, but it was bouncing off the 200 DMA and it looked so inviting!
Manic Markets
Man I'm glad I am not day trading this market. Thing about how manic you could have been today:
JPM Earnings beat significantly and the stock is up big...you get bullish.
Empire State Mfg Survey is bad...you get bearish.
Jobless Claims fall more than expected...you get bullish.
Industrial Production is worse than expected...you get bearish.
Fin Reg passes...you get bullish.
Action after Fin Reg is bad...you get bearish.
SEC announces a significant announcement after the close and markets rally...you get bullish.
How many people gamed this right?
I'd rather stay long like I have and lose a small amount than daytrade it and get faked out and pay a ton in commissions.
Can it finally be true?
15:37:41
British Petroleum plc Ticking higher, reportedly shows no oil flow into the Gulf of Mexico following initiation of well integrity testing
- Test was started at about 10 minutes ago at 15:35ET.
- Comments that 'very encouraged' with well shut in
not liking the action
Careful TOF,
I am not liking the action because weekly and monthly Stochs on many stocks, are pointing down. Seasonally summer is a week time for stocks.
I appreciate your all your postings. Bear E
Re: Manic Markets
Wow... and I thought it was the best DAY trading environment one could wish for...
Everything you list has one major flaw: attempt to trade off NEWS, not of market's REACTION on news. That's why it would be wrong trade direction, while using information-price divergence would put you on the right side in most of those cases. It's not even time frame dependent, so day trading has not much to do with it...
Poor VVUS...
VVUS FDA advisor panel on votes not to approve Qnexa obesity drug
Vote 9-7
Re: Poor VVUS...
Yep... never was enough data, and to many side effects ( wish I Had shorted ! )
Re: Poor VVUS...
baz, you got it exactly right with your warning a day or two ago. I am sure someone out there listened and is now thankful for that.
GS development
16:06:45
The Goldman Sachs Group Inc Reaches settlement with SEC with financial component, size unclear - CNBC reporter citing sources
- Note: Recent chatter has put the size at the possible settlement near $1B
Its sad
Vad, that ' The Street ' ( and AF ) were pumping big-time.. cost alot of people.. VVUS will submit additional data by September, so this puppy will still crazy-trade ( which should be interesting )... I am waiting for updates from OREX, as I, personally, believe this may be the one that would have a chance.. ARNA still iffy, but the ' saftey push ' could keep it in play till Oct... went ahead and started NOV, etc, as Salazar and crew will make amendments to the moratorium...
Re: GS development
16:36:52
The Goldman Sachs Group Inc SEC Confirms $550M settlement related to subprime mortgage CDO
- Goldman, Sachs & Co. will pay $550 million and reform its business practices to settle SEC charges that Goldman misled investors in a subprime mortgage product
- In agreeing to the SEC's largest-ever penalty paid by a Wall Street firm, Goldman also acknowledged that its marketing materials for the subprime product contained incomplete information.
- Goldman acknowledges that the marketing materials for the ABACUS 2007-AC1 transaction contained incomplete information. In particular, it was a mistake for the Goldman marketing materials to state that the reference portfolio was "selected by" ACA Management LLC without disclosing the role of Paulson & Co. Inc. in the portfolio selection process and that Paulson's economic interests were adverse to CDO investors. Goldman regrets that the marketing materials did not contain that disclosure.
- Goldman agreed to settle the SEC's charges without admitting or denying the allegations by consenting to the entry of a final judgment that provides for a permanent injunction from violations of the antifraud provisions of the Securities Act of 1933. Of the $550 million to be paid by Goldman in the settlement, $250 million would be returned to harmed investors through a Fair Fund distribution and $300 million would be paid to the U.S. Treasury
- Settlement also requires remedial action by Goldman in its review and approval of offerings of certain mortgage securities. This includes the role and responsibilities of internal legal counsel, compliance personnel, and outside counsel in the review of written marketing materials for such offerings. The settlement also requires additional education and training of Goldman employees in this area of the firm's business. In the settlement, Goldman acknowledged that it is presently conducting a comprehensive, firm-wide review of its business standards, which the SEC has taken into account in connection with the settlement of this matter.
- The settlement is subject to approval by the Honorable Barbara S. Jones, United Sates District Judge for the Southern District of New York.
- does not settle any other past, current or future SEC investigations against the firm. Meanwhile, the SEC's litigation continues against Fabrice Tourre, a vice president at Goldman.
Goldman consent decree
http://www.sec.gov/litigation/litreleases/2010/con...
Re: GS development
In a side note, the SEC appologizes to Goldman for the size of the haircut and states it will use its influence with the FED to keep interests rates at zero so Goldman can get its money back by continuing to fleece the saver class. QED
Re: Manic Markets
i hear you but there is so much choppiness that it can catch any set ups off guard.
i'm not a huge fan of day trading in general so i guess i'm just biased.
Re: GS development
"Meanwhile, the SEC's litigation continues against Fabrice Tourre, a vice president at Goldman"
Goldman: "Mistakes were made. Management had no idea. And Fabrice - he gets thrown under the bus." (Sorry about that, Fabrice)
Thank God they got that $16 billion from the treasury via AIG, or else they might actually be hurt by the settlement.
BP
Those BP calls for January 2012 that I mentioned at $5.00 last month hit $8.00 this afternoon.
Re: Manic Markets
Well, one can say just as well: there are so many overnight gaps that they can catch any swing trader off guard.
It's all about proper risk control.
I am not a big fun of longer term but do I go about busting other peoples' choices? Different strokes...
Re: GS development
davefairtex,
On the one hand, it's good to have this ugly situation over with, and the $550 million is not chump change. In fact, kudos to the SEC Enforcement director. It's interesting though that only $250 mil is going to reimburse investor losses -- is that how much the losses were? Is it a fact that the govt treasury needed $300 mil to offset the loss of tax revenue when Goldman Sachs writes off this penalty. Definitely has more cache getting a $550 mil deal than a $265 mil deal.
Re: GS development
Bill, I agree as an SEC action in isolation, it probably makes sense, given the specifics of the charges and the likely damages, etc. Three cheers for the director of enforcement!
However, I was referring to this settlement in an overall context - their corporate behavior over the past few years. And given that context and my idealized sense of what well-deserved justice might be if I could impose it by fiat, 500M IS chump change, given how much their parachuted "public servants" milked out of the taxpayers, their paid-for senators changed the laws to suit, etc.
From THAT standpoint, this settlement is but the downpayment of that justice. Unfortunately (perhaps) I'm not able to wield that magic fiat justice wand, so I'm stuck posting messages on trading blogs instead of doing what I'd really like to do...
Re: Manic Markets
vad - not sure why you think i'm busting you. just saying its hard as hell to day trade this market. i think we will be entering a more normal market going forward so i think the consecutive overnight gaps will be diminishing over time.
Re: Empire manufacturing
"... if less people are on Unemployment then less benefits would be paid out at the US Treasury? When I look at July outlay numbers they look the same as they always have." - kaimu
Suggests that as masses of newly unemployed join the unemployment dole, the formerly unemployed now are being put out to pasture (3 million in 2 weeks!) except for those protected by the teachers union. It's the new SHADOW INVENTORY of DISENFRANCHISED without RIOT INSURANCE, my friend.
Sleep well.
Computer Problems
Bill,
Defrag,Virus scan,re boot,spyware and many other issues drove me away from MS to Linux. (Ubuntu)
You might try wireless G3 G4 as a back up when networks slow.
Just my 2 bytes worth.
The Good, the Bad & the Ugly
Oooh-weeee! Macondo well capped, GoldmanSachs fined & Financial Crisis Regulation Bill passed.
Hmmm...well may have to free flow again depending on pressure testing/state of casing, GS settlement must be approved by judge and regulators will have to figure out the 2,000+ page bill to decide the who,what,when & how of enforcement.
We're not out of the woods just yet...
Re: Manic Markets
Simply because "...than daytrade it and get faked out and pay a ton in commissions" implies that day trading leads to this outcome. In reality it's incorrect trading that does, be it day, swing or long term.
................
could future rules portend a monster upgrade cycle ?..http://www.marketwatch.com/story/analysts-see-strict-rules-for-blow-out-preventers-2010-07-13?siteid=yhoof2
..........
looking at the price channel tighten in expanding bollinger band 2 month.. repeated pattern for past 6 months ...accumulation grows and price is flat.. as news is coming from Genentech partnership in Q-4 on expediated approval request ( per very favorable phase II data ), time is close to start a position...
Re: Manic Markets
Vad, I think you're being a little bit sensitive here. He's just saying he's not used to day trading, and that he's concerned that his attempt to day trade would have had a bad outcome.
Position sizes are a part of it. For you to make more money on a scalp, your position sizes are likely quite a bit larger than what I would take on a swing trade. I have a certain position size wired into my brain that's "comfortable" and another size that's scary, and I"m guessing to make money on a scalp that position size needs to become "scary".
Of course in reality, its not actually "risky", since you are only taking a risk over a short period of time, and the stop keeps your risk well-calculated (and in fact more easily calculated than a swing trade is, with all the gaps down) but for me changing position sizes from (say) 5k to 25k would take quite a while to get used to.
Likewise, as a swing trader, I like diversification to help me reduce positional volatility. Having a 10-20 positions open, some of which are not correlated with each other, helps me to relax. This also reduces the position size I'm able to hold, and if I had to watch all 20 in real time, it would become quite tiring!
An attempt to scalp using position sizes and diversification strategies of a swing trader (which are likely hard-wired into his brain by now) would likely be too heavily weighed down by commissions to be effective.
Re: Manic Markets
It's not every day that Sensitive and I are placed in the same sentence (Grin)
"Fears grow as millions lose jobless benefits", sad but true ...
"By Nick Carey
CINCINNATI | Wed Jul 14, 2010 5:38pm EDT
CINCINNATI (Reuters) - Deborah Coleman lost her unemployment benefits in April, and now fears for millions of others if the Senate does not extend aid for the jobless.
"It's too late for me now," she said, fighting back tears at the Freestore Foodbank in the low-income Over-the-Rhine district near downtown Cincinnati. "But it will be terrible for the people who'll lose their benefits if Congress does nothing."
For nearly two years, Coleman says she has filed an average of 30 job applications a day, but remains jobless.
"People keep telling me there are jobs out there, but I haven't been able to find them."
Coleman, 58, a former manager at a telecommunications firm, said the only jobs she found were over the Ohio state line in Kentucky, but she cannot reach them because her car has been repossessed and there is no bus service to those areas.
After her $300 a week benefits ran out, Freestore Foodbank brokered emergency 90-day support in June for rent. Once that runs out, her future is uncertain.
"I've lost everything and I don't know what will happen to me," she said.
"
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE66D0LB201007...
"Could the Dow fall to 1,000?", Interesting Article
Here is a crystal ball preditions into the future. Would it turn out to be TRUE? no one knows but anyway go ahead, READ IT AND WEAP :)
http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/insight/article....
"By Anthony Mirhaydari, July 15, 2010
Could the Dow fall to 1,000?
A recent dive in the market and some pessimistic predictions have investors running scared again. Here's a look at some worst-case scenarios -- and how to prepare.
How things have changed. Just three months ago, all was right in the world. The U.S. economy was roaring back to life. The stock market was flying to new highs.
It was enough for Larry Summers, a Harvard economist and senior economic adviser to U.S. President Barack Obama, to declare that America was moving toward "escape velocity": The recession had been defeated, and was now on the path of self-sustaining growth. Then things started to unravel. Whoops.
It started with the announcement of the U.S. government's lawsuit against Goldman Sachs (GS.N) on April 16, continued with the European debt crisis and accelerated on signs of weakness in recent economic reports. The American economy's rate of growth has slowed with the ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indexes pulling back slightly on a reduction in new orders. Corporate payrolls fell by 125,000 last month. Consumer and investor confidence has been shaken as fears of a "double-dip" recession have grown. And stocks are down about 10% from their 2010 highs.
Things got so bad that when technical analyst Robert Prechter predicted this month in a New York Times article that the Dow could fall as low as 1,000 -- from around 10,000 now -- the most dour forecast I've heard sounded reasonable to a lot of people.
Over the past week, the situation has stabilized, and stocks have posted their best weekly performance in nearly a year. In my recent columns, I've outlined the reasons I believe optimism is warranted. Economic growth, led by investment and spending by the corporate sector, is the most likely path forward. Job creation is getting warmed up. Earnings growth is set to continue. Stocks should rise.
But I don't want to sound like a Pollyanna, and I want to address the fears many investors have. So today I trade my rose-colored glasses for some shades of gray.
Let's take a look at the dark side with two of the more pessimistic forecasters around -- apart from Prechter, anyway. One predicts stock market losses of up to 50% over the next two years; the other expects a long, grinding recessionary environment that could lead to a debt-deflation spiral and a deep depression. Thankfully, each provides ways that you can protect your wealth should his scenario come to pass.
"
Something regarding Case Schiller
How be it that someone asked were another got their information; I see and hear only gloom out there about serious housing problems. Does anyone have any other information contradicting the abysmal housing situation brought out in this article? What is the definition of a Depression anyway?
http://presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=134979§ionid...
You have to see this...I knew I liked Dilan Ratigan
http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2010/07/ratigans-ri...
a better future
It was enough for Larry Summers, a Harvard economist and senior economic adviser to U.S. President Barack Obama, to declare that America was moving toward "escape velocity": The recession had been defeated, and was now on the path of self-sustaining growth. Then things started to unravel. Whoops.
It started with the announcement of the U.S. government's lawsuit against Goldman Sachs (GS.N) on April 16, continued with the European debt crisis and accelerated on signs of weakness in recent economic reports. The American economy's rate of growth has slowed with the ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indexes pulling back slightly on a reduction in new orders. Corporate payrolls fell by 125,000 last month. Consumer and investor confidence has been shaken as fears of a "double-dip" recession have grown. And stocks are down about 10% from their 2010 highs.
Re: "Fears grow as millions lose jobless benefits", sad but ...
analysts65,
Sadly, this is the case for an increasing number of people. I would add one more decidedly negative factor — an unsellable home. If you've put a sizable down payment and several years of payments into one around here, it is a millstone around your neck.
As opposed as I am to the idea the government can create jobs, think what the amount blown of bank support may have done if spent on some massive federal project like a unified public transportation system for example. (Think the Interstate Highways)
Some things call for a master plan at the top level and local or area implementation. This would take years and provide jobs here in America, be done by Americans and benefit Americans for generations to come.
Re: GS development
ALOHA!!
I think we can put the $550MIL USD GS Settlement into perspective by looking at one line item on the US Treasury Statement for July 14th. The US Treasury shelled out $566MIL on Wednesday for Unemployment Benefits. That tops the GS Settlement.
Then if you look at Social Security, another single line item at the US Treasury you will see they shelled out $8.51BIL on Wednesday. The US Treasury took in $8.3BIL in net tax revenues on Wednesday, so not even enough to pay for Social Security.
Tomorrow, Thursday, should be another weekly $100BIL USD+ debt issue.
Really, whats $550MIL these days? It doesn't even cover the cost to build the US Embassy in Iraq, which costs $1.5BIL per year to just keep its doors open. Then add in the welfare being handed to Iraq to "rebuild" the country we tore down, running at three times the foreign aid we pay to all of the rest of the entire World. How many Iraqis were flying those American Airline jets into the WTC and the Pentagon again?
On Wednesday, July 14th, Defense Vendors were paid $1.2BIL bringing their total "welfare" YTD to $308BIL USD for FY 2010, more than George Bush and Cheney spent in FY 2009 at this time.
SPC JEROD OSBORNE
My youngest nephew who just graduated high school lost one of his friends who graduated two years ahead of him in Iraq the prior week. He was an Army combat medic who was blown up with an IED.
LINK: http://tinyurl.com/25cehlr
This same identical "KIA homecoming" has played out for many of the US youth now serving in the military yet the US Congress still has not had the common decency or the political fortitude to vote on a declaration of War against Iraq or Afghanistan, much less Saudi Arabia where most of the WTC terrorists were from. The US Congress also failed to declare War on North Vietnam where over 50,000 American kids died. Both sides of the isle remain cowards and hypocrites when it comes to a formal declaration of War on the WAR ON TERROR or whatever it is Obama calls it today. Had Obama kept his campaign promise to remove troops perhaps this kid, Spc Jerod Osborne, would still be alive today. On his FaceBook page there is a video showing his life in photos from a baby to his military service. What you see loud and clear in that video is the huge emotional and financial investment his parents made to raise their child as a good, decent and brave American. His parents Pride shines through ... Yet the US Congress has so many times in the past, as they do now, used warfare to gain political power preying on voter emotions and the exuberance of youth with the financial backing of the US military industrial complex. How cavalier does this Congress toss away valuable human life with absolutely no sacrifice on their part to even uphold the US Constitution by a Declaration of War. Here with Spc Jerod Osborne we lost a future doctor and a law abiding, trustworthy and honorable US citizen. That is something of immense value. It is precisely Honor and Trust that is sorely lacking in American political leadership today. What Hubris this two party political monopoly has! Congress and whatever "two party suit" voters drop into the Oval Office have little to no value today in my book. What a tragic waste all around for the future of America. Go to just about any US government endeavor these days and you can see the stamp of "failure" all over it accompanied with a huge price tag of unending DEBT.
GS got off easy in the grand scheme of it all ... In the BIG PICTURE the BIG BANKS are living large! This is the same GS that was booted off the stock exchange in the 1920s for the fraud that was the GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING CORP. What CHANGE ...
Here is this "blast from the past" from Fortune Magazine in 2005, which pretty much says it all in the first paragraph ...
GOLDMAN: WE RUN WALL STREET
By playing all sides of the NYSE deal, Goldman Sachs sent a powerful message. Here's how it got so far ahead.
By Justin Fox
May 16, 2005
(FORTUNE Magazine)-IT WAS AS CLEAR A STATEMENT AS could be made about who runs Wall Street these days: The New York Stock Exchange, partly owned by Goldman Sachs and headed by a former Goldman president, announced in late April that it was merging with electronic-trading network Archipelago, in which Goldman is a major shareholder. The advisor to both sides in the merger? Goldman Sachs, of course.
What CHANGE?
QUESTION AUTHORITY!