Bill Cara’s Blog for July 22, 2010 [See post-close report]

I bought at 34.xx.

Will reload prob later today. Might go for vxx as it looks over done.

Bought vxx at 24.2x

ABT - estimates upped at Morgan Stanley through 2011. Margins should continue to expand over the coming quarters. Overweight rating and $63 price target

CTSH - reinstated at BofA/Merrill with a Neutral rating. Growth potential not mispriced.

KO - price target higher at BofA/Merrill. KO price target raised by a dollar to $63. 2Q volumes (+5%), margins (+210bps) better than forecasted. Maintain Buy rating.

LLTC - estimates increased at UBS through 2012. Company continues to perform well, despite a murky macro outlook. Neutral rating and new $31 price target.

QCOM - estimates, target raised at Goldman. Shares of QCOM now seen reaching $44. Estimates also increased, given continued smartphone growth. Buy rating.

QCOM - estimates raised at Credit Suisse. QCOM 2010, 2011, 2012 EPS estimates increased to $2.33, $2.39, $2.50, respectively. Mixed 3Q results but CDMA/WCDMA market still seeing robust growth. Neutral rating and $40 price target.

SBUX - price target trimmed at Barclays to $26 from $28 on lower than expected 2011 estimates. 2010 and 2011 EPS estimate dropped to $1.23 and $1.40, respectively. Reiterate Equal Weight rating.

These daily gyrations up and down are making it difficult for everyone that is trading intraday, I'm sure. You have to flip between bear and bull each day.

I'd rather just stick with one direction and set stops a few percent away. That's what I have done with the idea that markets continue to have pressure to the upside so I'm sticking with my longs.

And Vad > I'm not targeting you.

if one uses Elder's Triple Time Frame (hours, days, weeks), the 26 week EMA is in a downtrend.

However, there have been some nice ST reversals where the markets get way oversold (July 1) and provided trades on the long side till the markets get back to the 50 day EMA and then short again. Rinse and repeat...LOL

The close will be "interesting"

FD: net short. buy BGZ limit 14.86. Do your own homework

Is it just the missed targets?

Mister Softy reports after the bell.

bought a little TYP at 38.57

Do your own homework.

multitude of things. their business is changing due to consumers changing how they consume video. more and more people are lowering their monthly rate plan. and also streaming more content online vs asking for shipped DVDs. So on one hand you will see higher profit margin per subscriber. but for now lower monthly revenue per subscriber.

Blueray may become the last Disc based movie platform ever invented. ANd everything converting to stream.

ALOHA!!

The July 2010 NFIB on small business has posted a commentary on the effects that the US government is having on small business. Not very optimistic to say the least. Why does government and the US FED insist they know how to fix America's economic ills when it was they who created them? All you have to do is look at the US Treasury Daily Statement on any day and you see the problem loud and clear. Its too much spending and debt ... Why? Because of political promises of entitlements made for decades. Now Congress has extended Unemployment benefits another 99 weeks for the chronically unemployed. In the articles I have read they refer to these benefits as "aid". In reality these benefits are "political aid" so that these two political parties that form a political monopoly can stay in power. More DEBT is on the way as tax revenues can no longer cover the funds needed to keep political promises alive. Its only a matter of time before we see QE2 and on and on to QE32 ...

NFIB COMMENTARY
July 2010

The U.S. economy faces hurricane force headwinds and the government is
at the center of the storm, making an economic recovery very difficult.
While political leaders trumpet their ideological attempts to remake the
economy and save “small business”, more and more ordinary folks are
wondering what in the world are they thinking. Either policymakers
have no idea how to help the economy or they are intentionally committing
it to unsustainable expenditure growth and deficits so large that there will
be no alternative but to raise taxes, a slow suicide for a dynamic economy.
Fear is growing that the “lame duck” session is not so lame and could
produce legislation that permanently paralyzes the economy. Cities, states
and even sovereign countries are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy
while government workers and favored union workers reap benefits and
wages far better than their private sector counterparts. With an
unemployment rate of nearly 10 percent, the President travels the country
touting the health care bill that few like, selling wealth redistribution and
the need for more taxes. What should ordinary citizens and small
businesses owners expect from all this? A growing and more dynamic
economy? Not likely.

In six months, the so-called “Bush Tax Cuts” expire which will trigger one
of the largest tax increases in history. The worst financial fiascos
including Fannie, Freddie, AIG, GM and others, have not yet been
addressed exposing taxpayers to hundreds of billions in losses. Instead,
Congress is trying to tax successful businesses. Taxing “success” is a
terrible path to growth and real investment. And adding to the misery and
pessimism, massive government deficits threaten future capital availability
for the private sector.

Paul Krugman in his N.Y. Times op-ed July 9 said, “If we want stronger
business spending, we need to give businesses a reason to spend. And to
do that, the government needs to start doing more, not less, to promote
overall economic activity.” Krugman’s view seems to be shared by
Washington, looks like he as well as Congress still don’t get it.END

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index sits at 89 as of June 2010. Anything below 90 is at historic slows. In April and May 2010 the index went above 90(90.6 and 92)but is now back below 90 again. Prior to April the index has not been above 90 since September 2008.

George,

"...they are people of action and they are literally fighting for their lives."

I don't think we realize what it must be like to be surrounded by so many people who want to annihilate you.

I remember being told by a rep from McDonald-Douglas many years ago that when he was in Israel giving tech info on a new plane he found they had disconnected many of the computer systems because they took to long to start up. I think he said they had only about ten minutes to reach a defensive altitude after the first alert.

I wonder how the changes in technology have changed that — less time or more?

I have reported on corn before but this is something new. From www.pjstar.com/business/x550418901/Pumpkins-threat...

"A wet spring has experts worried about blight that could have an effect on the Illinois pumpkin crop.

Because 95 percent of the nation's processing pumpkins, those pumpkins grown for pies, breads and other foods, are raised in central and southern Illinois, the possibility of blight in this area is a big concern, said Mohammad Babadoost, University of Illinois Extension specialist in fruit and vegetable pathology.

"We do have blight. Some of the fields have heavy blight due to the wet conditions earlier in the growing season," he said.

Babadoost said he visited several pumpkin fields in central Illinois on Sunday to ascertain the extent of the problem. "Right now we're scouting and monitoring to see how we can save the crop," he said.

The Phytophera blight is described as "a nasty pathogen" by Babadoost. "I've seen it destroy entire fields. Once the fruit is infected, it's not suitable to process, eat or carve," he said."

Last fall there were articles about Libby leaving huge numbers of pumpkins in the field to rot because it was too wet to harvest, just east of Peoria. Libby is a brand of ConAgra (CAG). Another company affected is Seneca Foods (SENEA).

There is no ETF yet for pumpkins, thankfully. And for the CORN ETF, I see that the volume is pitiful.

Another crop dominated by Illinois is the horseradish root, grown outside of Collinsville, just northeast of St. Louis. "The city and surrounding area are said to produce 85% of the world's horseradish, of such high quality that it's actually exported to Germany and China (key users of the herb) for gourmet use", per Wikipedia. Have not heard whether it is in danger (LOL/snort).

Grym,
I'm glad that there was your response. Our present administration has pretty much "spit" on the Israelis. Many Jewish people are Dear Friends of mine and many have been Democratic. Being conservative I've wondered about that for many years. The present "regime" to me has driven away the smartest and most influential group in America and I just don't get it.

I was a teenager when they opened up a can of whip-ass.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hIll-q8hUc&feature...

Kaimu , I read your comments on MAIDEN LANE I , II , III , last night . CORRUPT IS TOO KIND A WORD DELIBERATE SABOTAGE is more like it . MAIDEN LANE I - This was the JP Morgan bailout
AAA = 1.5%
BB+ and lower = 8.1%
GSE(FNM & FRE) = 86.6%

MAIDEN LANE II - AIG bailout of JPM and GS
ASSET RATINGS
AAA = 7.8%
BB+ and lower = 78.3%

MAIDEN LANE III - AIG bailout of JPM and GS
ASSET RATINGS
AAA = 1.5%
BB+ and lower = 96.6%
NR = .2%
Total BB+ and lower including NR(Not Rated) = 96.8%
Before they forced this JUNK into the treasury . Congress should have invested all of their campaign funds FIRST!!! If it were good enough for them , THEN MAYBE. No not even then. Bob . "Some people think that the Federal Reserve Banks are United States Government institutions. They are private monopolies which prey upon the people of these United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign customers; foreign and domestic speculators and swindlers; and rich and predatory money lenders. The Honorable Louis McFadden, Chairman of the House Banking and Currency Committee in the 1930s
"The Treasury Department, for the first time in its history, said it would begin selling bonds for the Federal Reserve in an effort to help the central bank deal with its unprecedented borrowing needs."2

This is extraordinary. Why is the Treasury issuing U.S. government bonds (or debt) to fund the Fed, which is itself supposedly "the lender of last resort" created to fund the banks and the federal government? Yahoo Finance reported on September 17 : http://tinyurl.com/42gxkr

" A friend of mine, who is close to the gold market, noticed that the August contract ( which needs to be rolled over soon ) has been trading at a tiny discount to the spot price, indicating that there has been real physical demand and that the weakness we have seen has been generated in the ' paper gold ' market ".. Bill Fleckenstein ( tonight )... Bill also mentioned GM's plans to aquire Ameri-Credit.... is that unreal or what ? Lets drive the American consumer further in debt ( and increase the auto repos at the same time... wonder if the Government will make up the difference to the dealers like I'm hearing about Fannies Repo'/Resales ??? )

... http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchiv...

GM has become a 'tote the note' enabler for their dying dealerships. The purchase of a subslime lender was a direct result of the new 'Fin Reg' exclusion of car dealers under 'consumer protection'. Yes boys and girls Uncle Shylock is alive and willing to put YOU into a new or used car that you do not need and cannot afford.

As a taxpaying owner of the majority of GM, I find this repulsive. I guess it's just back to business as usual.

I've been successfully playing this ping pong market (SP 1040-1100) for the last few weeks but the table seems to be contracting. The wedge looks to be coiled for an upside breakout past even 1130. Next week is end of the month and it's been a decent month so far. Just musing but us old timers fondly remember the halcyon days of summer rallys. Perhaps an oil free beach party before the winds of autumn?

as Truman says, ' good morning, and if I don't see (hear) ya' good afternoon good evening and good night ( and good trades )... thx

S&P +3.20 / +0.29%
Level 1,090.90
Fair Value 1,090.18
Difference 0.72
Nasdaq +6.00 / +0.32%
Level 1,858.75
Fair Value 1,861.22
Difference -2.47
Dow +25.00 / +0.24%
Level 10,292.00

I can only assume that the huge divergence between the DAX and other European bourses is a successful completion of the "stress test", or more likely that insiders on the know have gapped up for their own gain prior to release of the test results. Spiegel shows no results for this test yet.

George & MtnGntx,

We need to keep in mind that all nations have multiple interests and within them is a variety of pressure groups (some elected, some not). There is always a tendency to give countries personalities and think of them as we would an individual. They are not.

We have "given" Israel huge sums of money over an extended time. Yes, we have many common religious ties, we have had a lingering sympathy for the Nazi atrocities (and some guilt for not them helping early in the war), but in general maintaining friendly relations with them and supporting them has been to our mutual benefit.

We NEED oil. (We should/could have changed that in the last 30 yrs.) The Israelis provide us a base of operations without the necessity of our manning it. By now almost everyone must know that is why we are in the Middle East in force.

As far as spying goes — we are a long way from the days when Sec. of State Stimson said, "Gentlemen do not read others' mail." Everyone does it, but getting caught requires an indigent retaliation of some kind.

to run the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau at the Federal Reserve. Treas. Sec'y Geitner and the banks oppose her. I think she will be nominated and there will be a fight over her approval in the Senate which should cause plenty of market volatility. She will be outstanding if approved. If the bankers choose to tank the market in protest that's just too bad. I hope the democrats stick with her regardless of the action in the market. This is an important issue. This country needs to address and remedy the blatant disregard of the public good that persists at the highest levels of the corporate economy.