Morning Call [6:43am ET]
The Baltic Dry Index ($BDI) is an average of international shipping prices to ship raw material, such as coal, grain, iron ore, copper and lumber, by dry bulk cargo. The data is published by the London-based Baltic Exchange with over 550 members, which represents the majority of the world’s shipping companies.
In addition to the Baltic Dry Index, the Exchange publishes five other indicies:
• Baltic Panamax Index (BPI)
• Baltic Capesize Index (BCI)
• Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI)
• Baltic Tanker Dirty Index
• Baltic Tanker Clean Index
While one might expect there to be a strong correlation between shipping and equity prices, there has not been one in recent months. The RSI-7 on the Daily price series, however, is down to 4.5, which is extremely low. There was a peak of 4209 in late May, falling to its current level of just 2601. The $BDI:$SPX shows how badly the Baltic Dry Index has fared relative to the broad equity market (S&P 500 index).
We have been watching the prices of copper and lumber collapse since April, which is further indication of a contracting economy.
The US Existing Home Sales Report for May will be posted this morning at 10:00am ET. March and April sales were boosted tremendously by the federal government special tax credit incentive program for contracts signed by April 30. In April, sales soared to an annual rate of 5.77 million homes. For May, sales are expected to rise about +6.0% to a rate of 6.12 million units, which is the consensus estimate of 67 economists. But, according to Econoday data, purchase-only mortgage applications fell 27.1% for May, so the May sales number could be a disappointment, leading to a sell-off in equities.
Tomorrow at 10:00am ET, the US New Home Sales data will be published. That too will be interesting.
Expectations of traders are considerably worse than the economists. The US Housebuilders Index ETF [XHB], which hit a recent high of $20.00 on April 26 and $16.63 on June 15 and $16.60 on the 16th, closed yesterday at $15.61. The current price is well down from the 50-day Moving Average of $17.47, but the RSI-7 at 34.1 indicates to me that the price could sink a lot lower before short-term oriented traders will step in.
The graph XHB:$SPX shows how poorly the Housebuilder group has been doing relative to the broad market.
Equity prices in Europe have continued to tumble this morning. It’s been a tough week for the Bulls so far.
Most of the futures are looking negative at this point in the day.
Have a great day.
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Selling intensified Tuesday with traders unloading long inventory before the FOMC policy decisions are released tomorrow afternoon, redirecting those funds into the relative safety of bond funds (TLT+1.15%). When all was said and done, the S&P had relinquished the 200-day Moving Average again, closing under 1100, perhaps targeting the 50%-retracement of the recent rally off the late May lows (1085ish).
The TRIN today closed at a sky-high level of 3.51 indicating that selling was extreme and widespread, but, despite this relentless pressure, equity prices only closed down a moderate amount (S&P-1.61%). The Transports certainly bore the brunt of the selling, finishing significantly weaker (TRAN-3.88%), but this weakness failed to inspire similar selling in other institutional favorite sectors such as technology (QQQQ-0.79%).
For some unknown reason, FOMC days seem to be up-days, so traders need to be alert for bargain hunters stepping in around S&P 1085; if support appears to hold, then bullishly inclined traders can position themselves against a base of S&P 1040.
Although we do believe that 1040 will eventually fall in a big way, the Bears at least temporarily squandered their opportunity to drive prices lower several weeks ago, so we are content to simultaneously hold both long and short positions until prices break out, definitively, in one direction.
Have a great evening.
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Comments
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
All is quiet with Bill's Big Boys as of 8:05 EDT.
re: the gorrilla
It might be true that overall, 20% was lost on average, but for some lucky few like me, that represented an opportunity to multiply our wealth many times over during that same period, regardless of (and maybe due to) their shenanigans. It isn't my fault that they played and still play all those games with the numbers, nor is there anything I can do to improve or fix it. All I can do is try to protect what wealth I've accumulated, and find ways to increase it. Quite a tall order when everyone has a target on your back because you are now "rich" by virtue of their debasing the value of the currency.
I think we need to be thinking about how the game plays out from here. The ponzi game only works until there are more trying to collect than putting in, and once its seen to be a con, things should deteriorate rapidly.
See Rickards on revaluation of Gold. Its a shame we have no honest economists (that I know of or can think of) in government or banking.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWe...
Bloomberg pushing the Loonie
This morning, Bloomberg TV was up to another fast one. They were promoting the Canadian Dollar as a global choice for a reserve currency. There are two possible reasons, as I see it (i) that would be a segue to the Amero, which, given the fact that a Goldman Sachs man was rushed into the Bank of Canada governorship, and the long-time Harvard professor who was parachuted into the head of the Liberal Party to serve as the next Prime Minister, I think is at least 50:50 likely, and (ii) certain vested interests are trying to hold the US Dollar from rising, which is consistent with all the nonsense they are spewing with respect to changes in the Chinese RMB Exchange Rate Regime.
The latter point seems to me to be their desperate attempt to hold the S&P 500 from crashing -- something like the Shanghai Stock Exchange composite index has been crashing. The best way to do that is to take the $USD down. The problem is that Europe is falling apart after the sovereign debt bubble became a crisis with independent traders.
You might think I am down on Bloomberg, but in fact I refuse to watch CNBC any more because it is so much worse. The truth is I am down on US media. It is no longer independent, but has fallen into the grasp of a network of financial interests and the nonsense they are communicating is going to rip off the public who believes in it.
Cara 100 Update
BBBY - forecast higher at Credit Suisse through 2012. BBBY showing strong results. Maintain Neutral rating and $50 price target.
WAG - Walgreen Downgraded to Hold from Buy at Lazard Capital following the company's lower than expected Q3 results.
UK Spending Cuts
At 8:08 EST, news out that Chancellor opts for significant cuts and tax increases. GBP/USD goes up significantly. At least, in this instance, there doesn't seem to have been a prior leak of info.
Rally Without a Cause
SPY sure seems to want to keep on keeping on.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAlzg0S51GY
Cara 100 News & Views (WAG)
Walgreen shares being mangled:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/walgreen-profit-s...
--------
NOK - Nokia outlook cut to negative by S&P:
http://tinyurl.com/38qbp65
RNC's Steele would be perfect for CNBC
He never shuts up........................
Existing Home Sales - (oops)
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Existing Home Sales - Level - SAAR 5.77 M 6.200 M 5.200 M to 6.350 M 5.66 M
Existing Home Sales - M/M Change 7.6 % -2.2 %
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Existing home sales in April posted a sharp 7.6 percent jump to a 5.77 million annual rate. But, in a big disappointment, supply on the market jumped 11.5 percent to 8.4 months. But at least for April, prices did firm, up 2.1 percent to a median $173,100. Looking ahead, the settlement date for special tax credits has been extended to the end of June for contracts signed by the end of April. This extension will help support existing home sales (based on closing) but most of the action probably has already taken place and we may see sales slip in May and months in the near term. Based on purchase-only mortgage applications, which fell 27.1 percent for the month, sales are likely to drop in May.
Re: Bloomberg pushing the Loonie
Last week Russia announced it was diversifying some of its reserves into the loonie (although it had not implemented the policy yet). Don Coxe devoted his whole Friday discussion to the loonie - "sky's the limit". Over the weekend, Canada's Finance Minister addressed Wall Street types saying he was "comfortable" with a strong loonie and bragged some more about our great fiscal and banking system. So Bloomberg, today, picks up the baton... The noise keeps getting loudest as parity approaches. Where was the cheerleading when the loonie dropped 21% in three weeks during Oct '08?
One of the least talked about strengths of the loonie is the Canadian Sheeple - cowed, taxed to the hilt, and generally unwilling to make too much of a fuss if that burden increases. That's the kind of currency that bondholders love!
Anyway, I continue to use this opportunity to buy up all things Asian and Emerging markets and even some bargains in the US and Europe.
re: the gorrilla
I have read Paul Farrell for years, but lately he only reinforces what I already believe — making me feel even worse and giving me no new alternatives.
I know I can't influence congress, Wall St. or Bernanke and cannot trust gov. data or MSM.
Yesterday I noticed just how bad my environment looks. The US Postal Service drop box has peeled so much paint the top rust is making it taller. The potholes in the main streets are a danger to my car just as those on side streets are destroying my bike. The number of deserted houses in my neighborhood has more than doubled this year and the tall grass makes it more noticeable than the snow by far.
No level of government is competent or even seems to be attempting to deal with the basic problems — all is for show.
Our mayor is pushing tourism and hiring "experts" to study building a $55 million convention center. Build it and they will come? (Yeah, if we throw in free food and medical care.)
Our governor just signed pension reform legislation (which applies to new hires) and gets kudos! Yet those covered will still be allowed to retire at 55 with the same outrageous percent of working income.
To pay for this real estate taxes have risen, penalties and fines for traffic violations were boosted 60% and new bonds are being issued.
Conclusion: We're on our own and the ideas presented right here provide the best i have seen — anywhere.
Before Keynes
As posted by kaimu yesterday #64858 ...
Thomas Sowell likens Obama to a Tyrant in the link below which echoes kaimu's sentiments in yesterday's post. I see Obama is sacking a general today for insobordination. Anyway, that would be the same Thomas Sowell who is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institute and well known free markets economist who was born a poor black child in abject poverty in the Deep South like Steve Martin.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Sowell
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/5...
Portflio protection
I have started to buy out of the money put spreads in 2011-2012. I have been putting them on above the 2009 March lows. If the market drops I will have up to a 500% gain. If the market rises as I think it might these next two months I plan to buy back the lower priced option if I can make at least a 50% gain and leave the other side out there as downside protection at a reduced cost. I have been using SPY, DIA, QQQ, and IWM.
Any ideas on this strategy. I am sure that there are some negatives that I have not thought of. Let me know.
Thanks.
GOOG
I bought some GOOG today at a $494.5 average. I told myself several months ago that if it got to the $500 level I would buy it. Just because it hit $460 doesn't mean $500 was a bad buying point. Company generated almost $10 Billion in free cash flow last year, has almost $30 Billion in cash and no debt, has a ROE of 20% and investors are generally pessimistic about the company's prospects.
There has been a lot of speculation about the company offering a music site similar to iTunes linked up to its search results, which I think is a fantastic idea. They get billions of people coming to their site each month and will eventually be able to monetize that traffic in more ways than just through search results. I think this music thing is just the beginning. I could see them doing something like an iTunes stores for premium video / news content. I think too many people are writing Google off.
Re: GOOG
Since late April it appears to track around present level of .44 when compared to $SPX. Conclusion would be that if the tide is rising all boats will have good odds of same. China loss, of course, has been discounted.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG:$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p68485884055
Because it worked so well...
12:06:28 PM
(US) Treasury Sec Geithner: Obama administration is likely to conclude that the govt should retain a role in guaranteeing mortgages
Re: Bloomberg pushing the Loonie
The link I have been using to listen to the Don Coxe conference call doesn't seem to work anymore. Do you have a working link you can share?
Re: Bloomberg pushing the Loonie
Here's the DIRECT LINK to Don Coxe, not a promotion as provided by the other guy. Coxe talks his book. Cara, Sinclair, and Armstrong are all you need.
http://www.bellwebcasting.ca/audience/lobby/index....
All You Need Is Love
Cara, Sinclair, and Armstrong is all you need.
I 2nd that.
Are you really as good at forecasting as you think you are?
An excellent article, best I've read in years.
http://tinyurl.com/2fvxza8
MORATORIUM ON DEEPWATER DRILLING
1:41:12 PM
* JUDGE RULES AGAINST OBAMA ADMINISTRATIONS's 6 MONTH MORATORIUM ON DEEPWATER DRILLING
- Reminder: HOS had filed suit with the support of the state of Louisiana against the Federal Govt's 6 month moratorium on deepwater drilling
Related (RIG DVN KWK MMR MRO APC RDC PXD NE HP HOS NHP RDS.A HERO ENI.IT STL.NO OIH USO UNG SD CXO )
1:47:12 PM
White House press secretary: to appeal Federal District Court judge's ruling to lift the moratorium on deepwater drilling in the Gulf
Re: MORATORIUM ON DEEPWATER DRILLING
Interesting 5 minute chart pattern on RIG at that time:
Re: Bloomberg pushing the Loonie
Mackinaw,
Both Russia and Coxe and Min. Flaherty are talking their book. They hold commodities and want them to move higher and the US Dollar to move lower.
UK govt made a timely announcement too that pushed up the Pound. And how about Goldman Sachs AND Merrill Lynch both calling for $1600 gold (and hence much lower Dollar).
When does Jim Rogers pile into the same bed with his usual dance on CNBC and Bloomberg?
These people and their masters are afraid the equity market could tank here without them getting off enough stock and going short. The banks haven't a chance of getting out from under collapsing European sovereign debt, and they are so afraid the Euro will plunge (and the Dollar zoom).
It's all a game folks.
Its and FX game, but also a push me pull you game
I have shorted based on ---that if the support at the 38 Fib breaks, the declines could be substantial.
Also, this "push me pull you" effect with the Euro is causing multiple areas of support, but also breakage of support.
i.e. the SPX can provide energy to drive the Euro down, and vice-versa.
Bizarro world arbitrage and hedging is making this game tough to play, as well as the outright corruption and ability of single source, or multiple large source intentional ramp up and down control of the markets
SPX through the 200 DMA
Support for SPX at the 200 DMA isn't looking too great - neither is the Euro, for that matter. No big volume, things are just dribbling lower.
I'm leaning short.
Re: Its and FX game, but also a push me pull you game
steveo,
Agreed. We know the market is marketing, but what is surprising is how few similar minds (among the gurus) it takes to sway the masses on any point.
Talking earlier by phone to someone in Washington with plenty of experience in the capitol who agrees that networks have taken control there. People are either on the team or off it. There are a few different teams. This team wins a little and pulls out. Then that team wins a little and pulls out. All the oars in Washington are not pulling the same boat and the public is very confused.
What is needed is a totally independent media -- one that on every issue gives arguments both pro and con, and lets the people think for themselves. But, no, these people think they have all the answers and know best. They represent, of course, all the teams that pay them.
At this rate, neither Washington nor Wall Street can go on much longer before both of them collapse.
Re: Its and FX game, but also a push me pull you game
Quote today from an option's trader (FOMC announcement is tomorrow 2:15 EST)
"Don’t you guys thing "THEY" like to tank the markets while the Fed is meeting to keep rates down and easy money flowing? "
Re: Its and FX game, but also a push me pull you game
But how long can this "miracle of loaves and fishes" (ie free money) work?
And why if its working is everyone still hungry (ie broke)?
Some random thoughts
Bill,
Thanks for the BDI update.... Along with rail car loadings and truck and air freight stats, they provide a more accurate picture of real economic activity across the globe. Perhaps the fall in the BDI is a tell that a double dip recession
is directly ahead.
Jim Puplava at FinancialSense.com had an interview with Prechter this past weekend. Whether you are an inflationist
or deflationist, I would recommend a listen. I know Prechter has been wrong... my guess is his end conclusion
is correct.... he admits he underestimated the ability of the financial sector to inflate and delay his vision of a deflationary collapse. He now estimates the conclusion of the giant western Ponzi scheme by 2016 with false hope
maintaining the illusion of a return to good times for another 1-2 years then a rapid plunge in the next 4 years as
people finally wake up and confidence gets destroyed. He says that money printing and other government attempts to fix the bad debt will fail. Richard Russell says the same... that in the end the market will have its way and no amount of government intervention can overcome. I can't get on board with Prechter's view of gold...but anyway....
the interview was very good so have a listen and make your own opinions. Someone said on Prechter's gravestone
it would say "he finally got it right"
Reading the Greek press recently, I see Greek consumers will be facing a 40% increase in residential utility bills
come fall. Also government is going to jack up assessed values for real estate to increase their tax flow even though
property values are starting to fall rapidly. Also several pharma companies were cutting off business with the state medical system as the state has not paid their bills for 6 months or longer. Diabetics are especially worried they may not have their needed medicine. Shades of things to come in America soon.
I saw a doctor interviewed on Fox Business Report FBR and they were discussing the 20% pay cuts medicare was enacting and all the trouble doctors were having collecting payments. He said we are small businessmen/women
and have bills and salaries to pay and that many doctors are refusing to take new medicare patients. What are
boomer retirees going to do if doctors refuse to treat them... get sick and die looks like the only option unless you have a high end insurance policy. I recently had a skin lesion removed by my dermatologist. If I were working a
$15 per hour job, the doctor's 15 minute job would have taken a weeks worth of wages to cover. How will this extreme income distortion ever be solved? Wage and price controls?
I say let doctors get tax free income in exchange for enforced corresponding cuts in prices. That could reduce prices by 30-40% and reduce the cost of care paid out by Medicare and Medicaid. Add in severe (death penalty or life in solitary) criminal penalties for defrauding the care system and privatize the government agencies which administrate the system. This would be a first step to getting things under control.
That's it.. Have a good day!
Quick setup example
Somewhat unusual setup in our "catch of the day" today:
http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2010/06/jun-22...
Re: Some random thoughts
MoKat,
+1... read articles where docs have treated elderly patients for years and now turn them away... happy they aren't my docs.
I have listened to docs discuss the coming change, watched practices scramble to merge with or be bought by hospitals all with the hope of having steady, reliable income...
Most medical practitioners don't want anything to do with a govt system... and in almost every case it's all about the money... more accurately less money.
Re: SPX through the 200 DMA
Dave - I think it's the correct move to lean short. When it broke today I put on a SPY call/put hedge weighted toward the puts that paid off nicely. I may cut my GOOG exposure that I put on today because even though I think it's due for a bounce, I think the whole market is pointing down and not too many stocks can avoid a downward move by the overall market.
BP - descending triangle
BP chart to me does not look good - 2 week descending triangle, its right at support at 29. With the drillers selling off hard today and oil looking like it might be ready to follow the euro down, and the overall US equity market looking ill, I'm going to guess that BP breaks support. It will be interesting to see how much selling occurs when that happens.
No position in BP or the drillers
Re: Some random thoughts
the money is the issue....in the US the insurance companies get the nod, the citizens get the shaft...physicians are scrambling and complaining like the rest of us... :-)
How long before C is delisted?
In 2 months it will be a year since C traded at 5 bucks. Is delisting possible for one of the HB&B????
Food price inflation continuing in India
This article shows that Govt. is unable to control the rising inflation in food prices affecting the poor.
http://tinyurl.com/2wemczg
Re: Food price inflation continuing in India
ALOHA!!
Don't they have any "farmers markets" in India? Hummmm??? What's with India, haven't they ever heard of debt? So the RBI plans to intervene. What will they do start growing more rice? More dead weight to carry, as if the Indian population doesn't have enough woes as it is. Well, here in America our leaders have created 40.5 million foodless citizens, who can no longer afford food! I am sure those 40.5 million Americans could care less about the Mish vs Schiff debate. I wonder if the Indians are debating ...
Well, the supply chain in America is based on long haul, which means fuel and containers mainly. Containers such as cardboard. I was in Hilo picking up some large cardboard boxes from my box supplier. As I was loading them up he told me those boxes went up 35% this year so far and in September there will be another price increase. Not good news for small businesses or large businesses that use cardboard to ship their products.
Fuel in Hawaii has not gone down. FedEx has given me the warning of higher shipping rates ahead. I sure wish this Great Depression would get a move on. These high prices are killing my profit margins! When will I get some price declines Mish? Or is this the only Great Depression where only houses and 401ks are effected? Notice that anything that is not financed like food, gas, electricity, water and healthcare has been rising in price. What does that say?
Should we have thought anything different ?
http://blogs.forbes.com/energysource/2010/06/22/ju...
Re: Portflio protection
Bruce909, I'm just curious, are you buying vertical put spreads or diagonals or maybe something else?
A few weeks ago there was a lot of chatter about low volatility and that's when I had orders in to buy slightly leap puts on SPY for DEC 2012. I had them priced to execute around an S&P 1250 type number but we never got there. Also, I would have only bought about 4 to 7 contracts at most.
Re: Food price inflation continuing in India
Poor Kaimu the unfortunate. Pity that we-both of us-live in the everyday world. Anyone who purchases the inputs for a business or runs a household knows that overall prices have never EVER had a secular decline in our lifetime.
Liars that figure tell of the decline in house prices when the increases were never captured by 'official' statistics in the first place. Indeed oil was $140/bbl for a brief time and has declined to a modest $70 but from where it was 5, 10, 15 years ago it has increased in price.
Are tax increases counted as inflationary? I do not know of any sales tax in any state of the union that has declined in the last 50 years. Need I comment about the tax RATES on real estate. I'm told that income taxes will increase next year. I guess the price increase of taxes are never captured in the cost of living. But hey, my kilowatt price of electricity has declined 25% this year. Not. Surely the guys who collect the trash have taken a pay cut and the company is buying their trucks at a cheaper price! Not...
I am sorry to report to you that Tyson Chicken has taken a page out of the Hershey candy bar pricing model. My packaged chicken thighs now contain 'up to 15% chicken broth.' So my $1.19/lb chicken really costs close to $1.40...Packaged ham-butts are now labeled as a 'ham and water product.' I expect they will eventually be labeled as a 'water and ham product.'
The only really really true deflation that I have experienced in the last three years is the deflation of the income I receive on my money market accounts. For shame that we are recapitalizing failed banks on the backs of savers. I say savers and not taxpayers because the taxpayer can never pay and the government knows this. Gee, if I was government, how would I pay? In cheaper dollars over time! This is the tried and true method since 1913. IT IS CALLED INFLATION. But savants will call it a measured and modest decline in the purchasing power of money 'so called' such that over time the hoi poloi will even brag about how much their wages have increased!
Your government despises savers. They loathe the thrifty. Every program they have and will enact is an axe on the neck of those who will NOT be profligate. They will print and expect you to spend. They will send you a Federal Reserve debit card for $1,000 and if you do not spend it in a month, it will expire...
I do not know who this Mish is, Kaimu but I'll bet he doesn't buy the groceries or pay the utilities and taxes for his household.
We live in an era of a most severe form of 'Carnival Grotesque.' There is much humor in it but it is becoming more difficult to laugh. I tire of the self serving lies of the circus of the amiable dunces.
Re: Should we have thought anything different ?
was reading Armstrong's "immoral not illegal" article last night. As he and your article points out baz, the whole dirty lot of em are up to their necks in "immoral not illegal" conflicting interests. One has to consider Armstrong's assertion with some respect - "There isn't a prayer in hell that we can avoid what is coming!"
I also learnt in this article what it is to be a market maker - something Armstrong was quite adamant that Goldman Sachs is not. Armstrong weighs in on GS's (and America's) "immoral not illegal" behaviour and all the implications it has for the future.
Re: Are you really as good at forecasting as you think you are?
http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_ALL_1Q1...
Grantham writes equally powerfully on the subject. Very good read. Bubbles and value traps, Benjamin Graham taken to task. Intermediate guesscast: we're going to rally higher. Not for any fundamentally sound reason
Re: Are you really as good at forecasting as you think you are?
thanks telestar, I too often gloss over Mauldin in my inbox, but that was definitely worth the read.
"selective bias" makes a rock solid disciplinary trade setup all the more pertinent (Don't laugh Vad, I do try to hold to disciplined setups - most of the time).
FUTURISM
ALOHA!!
What the future holds for the graduating Class of 2010 at UC Berkeley students. GREAT ...
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eswXirkgx14
Hummmm ... at one time I was that idealized, except my generation had the Vietnam War hanging over our heads. Imagine graduating then heading off to Saigon!
Lots of generalized socialism and paper shuffling mentioned. It will soon be, HEY DUDE WHERE'S MY JOB? Then two months after that, HEY DUDE I CAN'T PAY MY LOAN! Then "knock, knock" on Mom and Dad's door! Dad answers, "DUDE?"
I see a number of the grads were wearing Hawaiian leis. We sent a number of leis to Northern California, a couple of the double leis there looked like our handiwork! Fun ... making leis for me is like meditating. Pretty soon my brain is numb! Only to be awoken by a sharp needle in my thumb ...
Good luck and all the best to all the graduating youth all over the World. You certainly deserve a much better future! Amen ...