Morning Call [5:58am ET] The color red has many connotations, the most positive of which come from China where the association is with power, happiness and luck. Strange then that the negative issues building in China – central bank tightening, real estate prices seemingly ready to explode, imports exceeding exports for the first time in years, equity prices now in a primary Bear phase – are the cause of so much pain for global equity traders this morning, where the monitor is ablaze in red, the sign we know that prices are falling.
In Asia-Pacific equity markets today, Japan is still closed (so ignore the green), share prices were down. Commodity prices are being blamed.
In the West, the equity prices there are getting hammered too. Sovereign debt fear is cited as the problem.
But, yesterday in America, the color green (health, growth, money) painted the board.
Now I’ll let you in on a conversation I had in yesterday morning’s conference call with my traders. I remarked that the rest of the world was bearish, wanting prices to fall back through a Bear cycle to complete a full stock cycle so that the market could determine the new limits of stability, but that the big money interests in America were determined that would not happen. I pointed to Warren Buffett’s immediate response to an industry killer 40% mining tax in Australia with his timed remark, “I’m buying Australia.” Then you had Barton Biggs, another old-timer talking head of the insidious Wall Street network, calling for a roaring Bull market based on phenomenal growth in S&P 500 company earnings. There were others paraded on Financial Entertainment TV adding to the hype. I said to the traders, it looks like ‘pump and dump’ time.
We’ll just have to wait and see. That’s what makes markets, doesn’t it?
Have a great day, but don’t let the color red get you down. To many people like me, it stands for love. I love to see prices come into an Accumulation Zone.
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Back in 2007, investors were assured by Fed, Treasury, and government spokespersons that the subprime crisis was “contained”, that it was a relatively small problem affecting only a few overzealous lenders. After Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley had near-death experiences and venerable Lehman Brothers passed away before our very eyes, the history books will paint a vastly different picture of the upheaval and collateral damage.
Greece has been given a bailout package, monetary officials quickly heralding the cooperation of the EU member countries confident the financial fallout will be minimal. However, market participants had a different take on things; with Greece thrown a lifeline other PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) countries will be going to the IMF with hat in hand looking for money to tide them over.
Too much debt got us into this mess, so how is borrowing more money (implicitly encouraged by monetary authorities through artificially depressed interest rates) going to solve the problem? Until individuals, corporations, and governments can pay down debt and have sufficient positive cash flow to service existing debt the economic recovery is going to be shallow and uneven, with too few jobs created to foster real economic growth. If inefficient state-run agencies continue to be the main driver of job growth, then productivity will wane and standards of living around the globe will be permanently lowered.
Even with this dreary background stocks have been dutifully plodding upward for nearly 14 months in a clearly defined stair-step pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Each time it appeared the popular averages had lost momentum and began rolling over, large pools of money surfaced to buy any and all dips. Sooner or later their campaign will fail and prices will experience a longer lasting correction. Whether the time has arrived remains to be seen, but the odds are growing that time is up.
Prices broke through major support at S&P 1180 mid-Tuesday morning and were under pressure for the remainder of the session, closing at 1173.60 down -2.36%. Volume increased on the sell off – a bearish omen – but some traders began positioning themselves for a bounce Wednesday.
The S&P bottomed intraday precisely on the 50-day moving average (traditionally a level of institutional buying interest) and bounced almost +.50% into the bell. Additionally, many traders have noticed that each time since March 2009 prices have taken out the prior month low an immediate upside reversal has commenced; so initiating long positions has proven a winning proposition whenever this has happened.
A subtler sign of optimism was seen in the price action in the fear gauge (VIX + 18.80%) over the last hour of the day. The VIX peaked in early morning trade at 25.70 with the S&P trading near 1175 and could only muster a high of 24.95, even as the S&P traded nearly seven points lower in late afternoon action.
Bulls seem fairly confident the “buy the dip crowd” will be in attendance tomorrow morning, disregarding the fact key resistance was violated. There is a great deal of economic data to be released over the next few days so traders should expect a continuation of volatile price action.
It is relatively rare for prices to accommodate the masses so anticipate the possibility that both Bulls and Bears may be whipsawed for the next few days before the real move takes place.
S&P 1150 will be the next support, with minor resistance now coming in just above 1200. Traders leaning short into support areas should consider booking some profits, allowing them to redeploy bearish bets on early morning bounces up to well defined resistance.
Have a great evening.
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Comments
Solar business - Short candidate?
I would like to understand if the solar business is a good short candidate now on for this year.
In Europe, because of the big government debts, it seems that the incentives are going to be cut. Spain was a big market and is the first for example http://xrl.us/bhj3qk and Germany http://xrl.us/bhj3rb already planned to reduce the subsidies.
What is the situation in the US? Is solar viable only because of the government support? Is Obama encouraging even more investment in this sector now? What about Ontario: is it pumping the bubble?
In the Bronte Capital blog http://xrl.us/bhj3qv there are also some interesting thoughts (and fundamental analysis) about shorting FSLR.
First Solar at present has higher RSI values than other stocks such as AKNS, SPWRA, TSL and higher than the solar etf TAN and KWT.
I know that the "news" about the reductions of incentives is not hidden, so the prices should already consider this information. But I don't mean to open a trade for a day, but for a few months (with the proper stop loss anyway and maybe a partial hedge with the oil sector, for example going long NE that I like at the current price, and even more if the general downturn takes it lower).
According to Yale Hirsh
Now is the time to be out of the market. It is the beginning of the six "Bad" months when you should be seeking to make money in areas other than equities.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
SU - Upgraded to Outperform @ RBC following the Q1 report and FY10 production guidance. Target $46
RBA raises another + 0.25%
Australia raised interest rates another quarter point today.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/reserve-bank-of-a...
US Dollar is almost 83
82.849 may be enough to break commodity prices; then you know who is last dancer off the floor. Already Mr & Ms Nickel, Copper, and Coal have taken a seat. The Oilers may be next and then the Golds and Silvers.
The riots in Greece this week will decide whether government finance ministers and central bankers cave to their demands. If so, then commodity prices re-enter the dance, taking the Bonds off the floor.
Chips back on table
The action the past few sessions looked like high vol top building activity.
Deal the cards please.
Goldbugs are betting that the monetary authorities will cave
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=FOREX_XAU...
In the past 4 hours, spot gold has lifted from 1179 to 1188. Do we hear 1200?
Re: Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Seems SU has taken over Canada's golden hair boys, Encana and Talisman.
Example ECA and TLM use to be TD Banks Energy Fund top holdings.
Now the top is SU @ 11.8%
TLM now only 5.9%
ECA 4.4% / CVE 3.7%
Re: US Dollar is almost 83
Thanks for that bit of insight! +1
Re: Goldbugs are betting that the monetary authorities will cave
Here's my scenario on this one:
Merkel of Germany imposed some very draconian cuts on Greece in order to sell the whole thing to the German people. They're in a win-win situation in some sense. If the Greek people don't accept austerity, then the plug on the bailout gets pulled, and Germany is fine with that. Someone needs to be shot in order to encourage the others. If the Greek people accept austerity, then that's as things should be, and so the bailout is all right with them.
I don't think there's a very good chance that the Greek people will accept a 13% cut over 3 years, especially since its seen as having been imposed by Germany. That will have to play itself out I think.
If the Greeks don't accept the 13% cut, only way the elites can get this bailout done over the diametrically opposed feelings of the citizens of both Greece and Germany is through the ECB and its printing press. If the ECB prints money to buy bonds, much like the Fed did, that would "solve the problem" and since we've seen the ECB has reversed itself in accepting junk-grade bonds as collateral now, there is a decent chance they may reverse themselves on printing money to buy Greek (and Spanish, and Portuguese) bonds too.
Organizations hate to become irrelevant, and the ECB is fighting for its life here. I'd expect the unexpected.
That doesn't bode well for the Euro, of course.
Re: Goldbugs are betting that the monetary authorities will cave
davefairtex,
German and French equity markets are getting hammered today. These are huge markets. The Euro is under extreme pressure. I don't see how the S&P 500 can hold up too much longer.
But, we'll have to wait and see. Color me red though.
Germany Vs other Euro countries
In this moment Vs. Year-to-date 2010
German Dax30: -1.70% (+1.65%)
Italian FTSE Mib: -2.96% (-9.56%)
French Cac40: -2.31% (-5.02%)
Spanish Ibex35: -3.85% (-16,31%)
Germany and the German mark (?!?) are still the safe haven for Europeans.
Just to compare year-to-date:
American SP500: +7.82%
EEM (etf emerging): +1.88%
GLD (gold etf): +7.85%
US is still the world safe haven! And gold too...
Gold/EUR has broken up out of the 4 year channel
next goal 1000 EUR/oz. or +11%, doable by midsummer I guess - or why not earlier?
The market is voting (with it's feet) on the future monetary stability of the eurozone.
Note that silver is down, so this would indicate that gold is being monetized by the market against the wishes of the CBanksters.
NTRI
I mentioned this one the other day at just above $19. They reported earnings above consensus last night and delivered an upbeat outlook. 40% of the float is short and we are trading up around $22 (from $18.50 close yesterday). Long a Sept 22.5 call.
gold here
dont like the action today in gold,
w/ the miners still under pressure and golds early session jump im looking towards a sudden move down as the US dollar continues to run up. something that many thought wouldn't happen what with all the problems in California and Illinois.
people still forget that sovereign states defaulting are worse than a Province/state within a country.
gold can only move so far ahead along side the dollar in these situations, i suspect gold will make up its mind in either direction quickly.
w/ most of my funds in gold and a healthy cash position i am content in either direction, though i have no qualms with a move down to reload the remainder. though i suspect the action in either direction will make it difficult for either type of play.
this inst going to be easy. nor will it go according to any sort of script so often repeated by pundits about how the US is "next" after greece...
the USD has continue to run up on global instability and on its own domestic market weakness. people still somehow believe it will be different this time.
it wont.
Cara 100 Update (Final)
GILD - estimates increased at Morgan Stanley. GILD estimates were raised through 2012. Company continues to generate solid cash flow. Overweight rating and $48 price target.
PBR - Downgraded to Neutral @ UBS
Re: Cara 100 Ratings Changes SU, Suncor
Yes TD has a stake in SU, now 11% of TD "Energy" fund. Don't be mislead, this was caused by a merger last year (2009) of Suncor and Petro-Canada.
SU is a well run company, will rise on the price of crude per barrel
(and fall)
Hang Seng
I noticed that the Hang Seng officially made a series of lower lows and lower highs, confirming what the Shanghai Composite has been saying for a little while now. I read somewhere that the loan activity in China basically fell off a cliff in April. I'm not sure if this is a short term thing or not, but it signals caution. With the S&P only off 3% from highs I think we still have some room to fall before jumping in again. Makes you wonder what those people buying $40 June VIX calls a few weeks ago were thinking.
Buffett
Bill you mentioned that it was interesting that Buffett and Barton Biggs were out supporting the markets yesterday...I was thinking the same thing to myself yesterday when trying to determine just why the markets were so strong. Seems people still have a lot of faith in Buffett.
But I wonder if people are considering the conflicted nature of Buffett's investments. In the past couple of weeks we have seen him support a clause in FinReg that would benefit his positions in derivatives, the very same instruments he called weapons of financial destruction a few years ago. It seems even the oracle can't resist the allure of these magical devices. Add to that his support of Goldman in the face of numerous accusations of fraud and deceit.
Re: Buffett
As Monroe, who comments here frequently, wrote in an email last evening, Buffett is talking his book, and it never stops. Monroe believes that his backing Blankfein is "a part of the spin, the carefully thought out and premeditated fraud which had ACA and then Fabrice Tourree as the designated scapegoats."
Financial Entertainment TV has built up credibility in Buffett and others like Barton Biggs just like they did in the ratings agencies. Pro traders take it as all part of the game, but the public is now seeing it as a large part of a massive fraud.
The only people worth listening to are those independent traders who may be long or short any day, week or month, and, since the market really trades within a narrow range most of the time, the media should be made by the regulators to present a balanced view. These heavily biased people like Buffett are part of a network who have control of the FIFO pipeline, and the regulators have got to put a stop to that.
You all know that what I have been writing about for years on this score is absolutely true. Well, the politicians and regulators know it too, and they are too spineless, apparently, to build a system that works for all the people that use it. This is not rocket science.
Re: gold here
Cosa - In addition to todays general market decline, I think the fact that the Lihir accepted Newcrests slightly sweetened offer may also be taking the bid out from under the miners and gold for the moment.
Maybe Tom's song is apropo today !
.. http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=navclient&aq...
GS development
The Goldman Sachs Group Inc Reportedly NYSE disciplines a unit through cease and desist order for Execution & Clearing LP (GSEC); GS will pay civil penalty of $225K to settle with NYSE and $225 to settle with SEC
- Goldman consents to SEC though not admitting or denying guilt
- note: this settlement agreement is NOT related to the fraud suit filed by the SEC against Goldman.
Reason for MON weakness?
Just as the heavy use of antibiotics contributed to the rise of drug-resistant supergerms, American farmers’ near-ubiquitous use of the weedkiller Roundup has led to the rapid growth of tenacious new superweeds.
To fight them, Mr. Anderson and farmers throughout the East, Midwest and South are being forced to spray fields with more toxic herbicides, pull weeds by hand and return to more labor-intensive methods like regular plowing.
“We’re back to where we were 20 years ago,” said Mr. Anderson, who will plow about one-third of his 3,000 acres of soybean fields this spring, more than he has in years. “We’re trying to find out what works.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/04/business/energy-...
SPY 118.21/ 'Wrong Once'
Reminding those who follow Vad's comments:
(a) Close below 118.21.
(b) When playing with the trend, you will (generally) be 'right' many times, and 'wrong' once.
Of course, if one persists in playing the original trend once it signals a reversal, then it's possible to be 'wrong' more than once.
Re: gold here
billysundance,
interesting, im looking into this,
my suspicion remains unchanged, the weakness in gold was predicted by the severe weakness in the miners in the face of gold's surge, add to that market weakness and a surging USD it was only a matter of time before the metal gave way, which it is doing in short order.
these early morning surges up always lead to short term declines in my observation as it catches people trying to jump in.
weakness in europe, instability in the markets have led to gold declining alongside most outfits as money flee's enmasse to the USD. gold may as Bill says "be last off the dancefloor" and it may as some say "be the first to get back on" as we saw post crash in 2008, but until such time its always safe to have something in waiting for times like these.
the move to $1500 gold will leave behind a trail of gold-bugs wondering how they missed the boat holding jr's... yes tales of high flyers and break out jr's will always leave a greater impression than the dumpers, but the long and short of it is that if you believe gold's rise in value will be predicated on depreciation of fiat and global instability alongside an inflationary depression, then miners are only marginally better than equities.
they are still busiinesses run by men, the same men who couldnt as a group take advantage of golds virtual doubling of price the past 4 years. my money is on gold. some shares for gambling fun here and there i suppose, but i believe you will stress yourself needlessly on assay and drilling results, mergers and hedging nonsense before you make money.
gold is in a bull market. nothing else is. (accept bullshit i suppose)
dont listen to a word i say, i am a loon posing as a doctor ;)
Re: Buffett
And really, how does George Soros differ from Warren Buffett ?
Perhaps W. Buffett was more believable ?
Re: Buffett
Buffett is brilliant. Why wouldn't he talk his book? All the great ones do...Buffett, Gross, etc.
Happy for Bill that he is ringing the register today.
SPY volatility bands today (1.06 points)...could be a three Standard deviation day...
RIMM
11:42:13 AM
Research in Motion Ltd Planning a Blackberry tablet product - Blackberry Leaks blog
- Blog post cites contact within RIMM. Contact claims the tablet will be smaller than iPad, codenamed "BlackPad."
- Tablet will feature full BlackBerry OS compatibility and functionality.
- Product reportedly to be released in early 2011.
UXG - My PM stock of the year-Update
Today's selloff has not done any harm to UXG technically. Although it spurted to $3.63 yesterday, I indicated that buying initially or adding to positions should be no more than the $3.45 level. The moving averages SMA 10, 20, 50 have not been violated nor has the EMA 13/34 on the daily. I did take the opportunity to add to my position at the $3.39 level today although the price dropped as low as $3.34. I looks healthy to me in this turmoil so I am buying on the dips and maintaining position.
As far as RBY goes, technically it is acting as a weak sister and I am not buying anymore until the technicals improve. As an example, the Daily EMA 13/34 has not crossed up ( EMA 13>EMA 34 ) Therefore, I will wait.
In summary, UXG is fine! RBY not so great! Do your own due diligence. Thanks!
Small bio
For those who follow small bios, not every day the company of such caliber covers such cheapie:
May 04, 2010 11:51:38 AM
AVNR Avanir Pharmaceutical Canaccord Adams adds to Best Ideas List
Posted on yest blog - sorry.
http://bit.ly/azcHVR
Just a chart of USD.
Today's action confirms that B Harami/Inside day.
this is some serious selling. I nominate myself for the "Captain Obvious" badge.
Expecting a bounce
Selling volume has been decreasing with each dive...looks like selling may be abating. Bounce to 118.2ish?
Spain
Flyonthewall reports that a IMF spokesman says "no truth" to rumors on Spain
Re: gold here
Gold/EUR is testing just below 900, right around the top of the long-term monthly channel, after having spiked up to 910.
GLD:TLT is down for the day, but this week still looks like an inside week.
I.e., still inconclusive in the gold vrs. treasuries mud wrestling to the death.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD:TLT&p=W&yr=3&...
For physical-only gold investors, you only really need to check the London fix, which "is" the physical market for all practical purposes.
The crazy electronic / US futures market gyrations can be ignored.
I.e., let's wait & see where the Wed. AM fix is at.
http://www.lbma.org.uk/
Prices of Tuesday 4 May 2010
London Gold Fixing USD GBP EUR
AM 1184.25 779.009 901.462
PM 1185.00 782.798 907.281
Updated 15:06 Tue
London Silver Fixing CENTS PENCE EUR-CTS
1871.00 1231.730 1425.420
Updated 12:13 Tue
Re: Reason for MON weakness?
Thanks for the NY times link, ChrisM. Roundup (glyphosate) really is one of the great Ag advancements in the last century. The guys I knew at MON back in the early 70's assumed there would be genitic drift someday. The analogy to antibiotics is apt. Plowing dirt is energy and equipment intensive and the erosion potential is even a bigger negative.
I assume they (Ag scientists) will come up with a cocktail to solve or mitigate the problem. I'd hate to see them resort to 2 4D. That stuff is nasty.
I did like the allusion of pigweeds that grows 3 inches a day. I think I'll use that to characterize the heads of HB&B. Pigweeds that are Roundup resistant!
Re: Buffett
Bill I'm starting to see the Buffet thing the same way you are. He is a cult figure, and he does have standards for investments, but it is definitely not in his interest to tell the truth about what is going on at Goldman and the rest of the street. If he did, it might bring down the house.
If he were a real truth-teller, he would not talk about financial weapons of mass destruction on the one hand, and then invest in Goldman and pump them up on the other.
He's human, he has his own book, his shareholders depend on him to create value, and that's how he sees it, I'm guessing. Will Berkshire shareholders be better off with the full, naked truth being known, or would they be better off with "his version" which has elements of truth, but ignores some of the more uncomfortable bits.
Re: Expecting a bounce
TOF it could be - but lately we've seen each bounce peak out lower than the previous bounce - from an inter-day sense I mean. I'm not a buyer until I see a big volume stick and a small candle at a minimum. I mean, take a look at GOOG. Buying today? Maybe not. (I got stopped out last week after it didn't maintain a support level)
Global Economic News
TOP STORIES
> US pending home sales at 5-mo high, orders jump [nN0498574]
> German banks, insurers to support Greek bailout [nLDE6431LT]
> Greek strikers challenge bailout/austerity deal [nLDE6430PO]
> Greece contagion fears pound stocks, euro [nN04110373]
> Global mfing PMI hits highest since May '04 [nLDE643254]
> UK factory growth at 15-yr peak but lending weak [nLDE6431A4]
> German retail sales fall despite brighter outlook [nLDE64307T]
> Brazil March industrial output tops forecasts [nN04243799]
> EU's Barnier says to probe credit rating agencies [nLDE643186]
> Energy drives euro zone producer prices up [nLDE6430N8]
> Spain's jobless down slightly, 1st fall since July [nLDE6430AG]
> Oil falls on strong dollar, inventory view [nSGE64307U]
> Australia central bank raises rates
Re: Expecting a bounce
Dave - I wouldn't be surprised to see a test of the 118.2 level just because that held for a while as support.
As for GOOG...man, that thing is heavy. I'd have to imagine that fundamentals come in at some point. Looks like it wants to hit the round $500 figure.
Re: Global Economic News
What's Vad's comment - its not the news that counts, it's the market's reaction to the news that matters.
Re: Buffett
davefairtex,
If anybody is looking for a successful manager, I have always said it is Buffett that sets the standard, just like Goldman Sachs sets the standard for investment banks. All I said here is that if you are looking for independent advice because you make your own decisions, then don't listen to those people. What they say versus what they actually do may be miles apart.
The bottom line is this; does the person or persons you listen to have precisely the same motivations and interests you do? If not, find a different source of information. That's all I mean by this. Nothing more.
I also have noted from several sources recently, including the source I referred to earlier, that the Buffetts and the Goldman Sachs and others who have an axe to grind are not being listened as much to these days, and are probably, like most sitting Presidents and Prime Ministers, falling in the polls as the people eventually see some reality behind the surface.
Re: Small bio
Hi vad... yes, pretty solid little company... was there many moons ago... been watching and waiting... focused on affy now... as noted yesterday, sold onxx, as A.F. over at the ' Street ' put the kiss of death (for now ) on rev's (although conveniently left out the other indicated use/testing)... thank you for sharing....
Re: Buffett
I'll give the Devil his due. Now an icon, Buffett was once thought of as a rebel and maverick. The knock on him way back when is that he refused to split his stock! Absurd as that notion was, the guy has always written the best annual reports (mea culpa's included)of any I have ever read.
Of course he talks his own book. Don't we all. He has suffered from style drift increasingly over the last 20 odd years but age does that to you sometimes. His saving Sollie was self serving but at the same time very noble in my opinion. I cashed in in 04 after the Clayton purchase. As Bill said, when your interests are no longer aligned, it's time to move on. Make no mistake, Buffett is a brilliant man. He is very adept at winnowing a profit as a middleman.
Can anyone explain why silver
Can anyone explain why silver is down so much more than gold? I think I remember Bill saying that Silver leads Gold although I could be wrong or have that reversed. Just wondeing if this is any type of indicator to now short gold. Thanks in advance
Goldman Sachs
"Fairholme Capital takes "giant stake" in Goldman Sachs, reports Bloomberg"
Re: Buffett
allengg,
There once was a time when I respected Buffett's opinions, but not any more.
As for Soros — I never did think of him as anything other than a self-centered opportunist, however, I don't see anyone singing anyone here singing his praises. Did I missed something?
Re: Can anyone explain why silver
The monetary commodities are gold, silver & copper in that order of importance.
The goldbugs will tell you that gold is reasserting it's historic function as the only real money. Note at least that gold is down much less than some major currencies today, such as the AUD, CAD & EUR.
There are some very good reasons why the CBs are to this day sitting on big stashes of gold.
Some of the silver crazies are looking for silver to be monetized by China & possibly even become the new world reserve currency, but China has yet to show it's hand, and silver has yet to rehabilitate itself.
If gold really is reasserting it's function as a currency, and silver is not, then the correlation between the two should disappear, or at least become weaker. Personally I think this process has started, but time will tell.
Re: Goldman Sachs
Looks like they're back out there trying to support the market with notes like this.
Am I wrong,
or do the foreign ( non-US ) commentators and researchers seem better informed, better spoken, and less conflicted ??
Financial Regulation
WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) - An influential U.S. Republican lawmaker said on Tuesday he expects a proposal to require banks to spin off their swap-trading desks will be dropped from Wall Street reform legislation in the Senate.
"One way or another it will go away," Republican Senator Bob Corker told reporters on Tuesday in a Capitol hallway.
"I know Treasury doesn't support it. I know the FDIC doesn't support it. I don't think the Obama administration wants to support it," Corker said. "It needs to be fixed ... It shouldn't have come out of committee."
Re: Can anyone explain why silver
Silver is historically more volatile than gold - I'm not quite sure why, but that's just how it works. When there's a crash, silver will drop twice as much as gold. When there's a bull move, silver will rise twice as fast. Silver has an industrial component to it as well - its used in various products. Perhaps that has something to do with it.
So when you see that risk is being sold (i.e. the big mover tech stocks are underperforming, and utilities are being bought, bonds are rallying) its time to start thinking about selling your silver. The silver/gold ratio can show you this too: GLD:SLV.
Re: Expecting a bounce
No bounce whatsoever. I sold my SPY calls at a small loss and moved it into SPY short at $117.33.
Re: Buffett
Yes Bill I agree. I saw much the same thing with Soros. "Gold is the ultimate bubble" he said. Then it was later revealed that he'd bought gold right as he was saying that. Then he lamely explained that buying into bubbles is a great way to make money. Sheesh.
Buffet, Soros, politicians, central banks, and the big trading houses - they're all talking their book, whatever that is.
ITMN destruction
This gap down reminds me why I am a day trader.
Scalped after halt bounce, too
4:01:23 PM
InterMune, Inc. Receives complete response letter from FDA on Pirfenidone for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: no approval at this time
- FDA issued a complete response letter for the New Drug Application (NDA) for Esbriet(pirfenidone) for the treatment of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) to reduce decline in lung function.
- The FDA has requested an additional clinical trial to support the efficacy of Esbriet in IPF patients. InterMune intends to meet with the FDA as soon as possible to explore the best ways to address the points raised by the Agency and to discuss pathways to approval.
- CEO: "We will meet with the FDA as soon as possible to understand their points of view and to determine the most appropriate path forward to expeditiously make Esbriet available to the approximately 100,000 patients with IPF and their families who suffer from this terrible disease and for whom no FDA-approved medicines exist."
Re: SPY 118.21/ 'Wrong Once'/ Can't You See
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEOV5vWfSgI&feature...
I’m gonna buy me a ticket as far as I can,
I ain't never comin' back
Gonna ride me a south-bound,
All the way to Georgia now,
‘Til the train it run outta track
SPY closed at 117.52. That's good enough for me. Odds now favor shorting/selling the rips.
Should the DJIA/SPX fall below the 200dma, I'll start shorting using longer time horizons. Plan to stay in day trading mode until then.
Re: ITMN destruction
Vad,
I do not have the guts to play bio-techs that are at the mercy of FDA. How do you do it, since the swings are so wild? Stops are almost meaningless if it gaps down 70%. or up.
Re: gold here
I think the new tax in Australia will be matched by higher taxes on resource producers worldwide. Why? Because they are all desperate for tax revenues, and they see money there that they can easily grab.
I wouldn't own a miner in any nation at this point, especially in those countries running budget deficits.
Re: ITMN destruction
Holding into FDA approval date is nothing short of gambling, IMO. Look what happened before the halt in this particular case:
- Reminder: on 03/09 FDA Panel recommends approval for Pirfenidone for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis in 9-3 vote. Panel votes 9-3 that Pirfenidone can be considered safe. Panel votes 7-5 that data is sufficient showing Pirfenidone is effective
Imagine that someone (and I am sure there were a lot of such) bought counting on approval based on this panel recommendation. Looking at the charts and dates, it essentially means being long around 40...
What is the hope for those who stuck in it? here it is:
4:44:49 PM
InterMune, Inc. Exec: cannot comment on how large new trial will have to be - conf call comments
- still expecting decision on European filing for Pirfenidone in 1H 2011
How do you spell OUCH?
Re: ITMN destruction
Yeh i dont touch any FDA dependent stocks. its just too willy wonka. better odds at black jack table.
btw - the mega millions lotto jackpot is $266M tonight, before taxes.
$VIX:VXX, either way, volatility should do well.
http://bit.ly/blNB8O
Re: ITMN destruction
Moving nicely AH....maybe selloff way overdone
Sectors
I was playing around with a review of S&P 500 sectors and wanted to see what's been hot and what hasn't. Year-to-date, Financials, Industrials and Discretionary have been masking the real weakness in the market.
I have been raising cash for about six weeks and missed a lot of the move up in the broad index, but was able to preserve gains in some of those sectors that are showing negative returns YTD.
Many thanks to everyone on the blog for your opinions. They help me form my own, whether I agree or disagree with the finer points of others.
Mark
#1 in July of 1969
It's after hours so how about a song.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tLTb4P1HD8
See its not so bad today, smile it is catchy.
Re: Reason for MON weakness?
Federal Farm Subsidies are most heavily weighted in Meat/Dairy and Grains. We ship a lot of grain to China and Russia so the Feds stand to benefit.
Which means they are paying the farms and the GMO's (corn and soybeans) to make us (and the cows) all fat and the government coffers rich. Humongous Farm and Pharma (HF&P)are working hand in hand to make us sick, obese and in need of their other products including diet pills, diabetic remedies and preventable surgeries.
Meanwhile, Legumes and Vegetables get less than 1.9 % of the farm subsidies. The very things that make us thin and healthy. We have learned that GMO's are bad for humans...who cares? Not our Federal Food and Drug Administration. They are being paid to let Monsanto grow more seed GMO corn and other crops. This infects and destroys the indigenous corn, vegetables and potato species that originated in America and Mexico. It's practically impossible to find a non GMO DNA strain in your corn these days.
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive...
Meanwhile farmers are astonished to find that Roundup is not working on a new race of Super Weeds. So back to the toxic drawing board they go. Poisoning our soils with newer chemical cocktails which further degrade our food supply.
Perhaps MON's agenda is being considered by folks who actually care about a long term connected view that we are what we eat (and spray and spill).
A good guy...
Websites:
• geneticroulette.com
• responsibletechnology.org
Books:
• Genetic Roulette: The Documented Health Risks of Genetically Modified Foods
• Seeds of Deception
Jeffrey M. Smith
Biography:
Jeffrey M. Smith has been involved with genetically modified (GM) foods for nearly a decade. He worked for non-profit and political groups on the issue and in 1998, ran for U.S. Congress to raise public awareness of the health and environmental impacts. To protect children-who are most at risk from the potential health effects of GM foods-Smith proposed legislation to remove the foods from school meals. He also proposed legislation to help protect farmers from cross-pollination by GM crops. Later, he was vice president of marketing for a GMO detection laboratory.
Smith has lectured widely, spoken at conferences, and has been quoted in articles around the world. Prior to working in this field, he was a writer, educator, and public speaker for non-profit groups, advancing the causes of health, environment, and personal development. His book "Seeds of Deception," researched and written after he left the industry, combines Smith's passion for these causes with his extensive knowledge of the risks and cover-ups behind genetically modified foods.
Smith is the founding director of the Institute for Responsible Technology and a member of the Sierra Club Genetic Engineering Committee. He has a master's degree in business administration and lives with his wife in Iowa, surrounded by genetically modified corn and soybeans.
Natty Update
Natty Charts
The first chart is the weekly 3 part chart showing 1) the spread between the Jul/Jun natty contracts, 2) the natty continuous chart and 3) UNG. Per UNG’s website the contract rolls start on May 12th so I may take out UNG and replace it with the Aug/Jul spread chart.
The second chart is the daily Jun natty contract. I’ve marked what I think the support/resistance lines are.
I asked a grizzled old gas veteran which chart the nymex traders use for technical analysis, the continuous chart or the specific futures chart. He said “both and it just depends”. DANG. I was hoping for a shortcut.
THE NATTY PLAN. If natty drops to the low $3.00 range I’ll probably take a long position in UNG by either buying UNG outright or selling puts. I don’t see natty dropping that low in the next couple of weeks but with the overall market weakness that’s the only plan I feel comfortable with at the moment. That just helps me buy in closer to the floor in case natty keeps dropping. Ever since I started reading Bill’s blog I’ve been much more comfortable selling puts on stocks I want to own over buying the stock outright. The grizzled gas veteran mentioned above said I should use CHK or SD instead of UNG. That’s probably sound advice so hopefully I can check into it this weekend and I’ll post an update on what my revised plan is.
Re: A good guy...
There have always been 'contemporary' Luddites. Each generation spawns another group of 'againers' as in 'I'm against it.' Usuary, daemon rum, and tobacco Nazis all know the secret of salvation. You must do this! You can't do that! Everyone lies and everyone has an agenda no matter how misguided and infintile. I liken it to the misguided values of a free and socialized electorate. 'If only people were not obeese. If only people didn't smoke. If only there was world peace and we could all drink a Coke holding hands singing .......insert your own fuzzy song here!
Back to the point. Man has been altering his enviroment since Noah was a pup. The species that we recognize today are hybrides of 10,000 years of human engineering. To some it is evil to manipulate Ma nature. To others, it is a way to feed and clothe 6 billion inhabitants of a dying tempestious orb.
People like Mr. J. M. Smith no doubt earn a living selling his so called research and expertise to whichever side pays better. Altruism suggests that you work for nothing and die impoverished. With my lantern and my dog, I'm still looking for an honest man. I thought about living in a tub, but deemed it plebian.
The USDA is ripe with appologists. We have peanut interests and the sugar cartel are not to be matched. As for Monsanto, I nominate them for a humanatarium award. Without their science, people would be eating their dead!
Without further adoo, I will now perform my 33rd tobacco ritual today to honour my Native American ancestors. I may do 40 rituals tomorrow depending on Mr. Market..........
EMA 10 and 20 for weekly chart
has been good area of support for SPY.
http://bit.ly/a2Vwkt
Re: A good guy...
Ross, May your 40 rituals bring you good fortune tomorrow. Some of us just want safe, clean food and water. Very rare commodities these days.
Re: Reason for MON weakness?
I was interested to read that farmers have less incentive to buy overpriced GMO glysophate resistant crop seeds if weeds no longer can be killed with it.
As for tilling the soil being bad, putting in good old fashion wind brakes to minimalise erosion works where I come from, on soil that ain't half as fertile as what America is blessed with.
Here's a photo from Tuscany last year. Small, tilled parcels amongst forest, olive plantations and vineyards. That soil has been worked for 2000 years and continues to produce for Europe's needs. Chemical companies don't have a future in smaller scale, sustainable practice.
Cara 100 - Piotroski Scores
I checked the Piotroski scores of the Cara 100 stocks. I used this web site for calculation: http://charts.grahaminvestor.com/topscores.php
At present the only stocks with a score between 7 and 9 are:
ECA AAPL BRCM MSFT RIMM NOK COST RCL SBUX WFMI
But 5 out of 10 have a sell alert now with the RSI system http://xrl.us/bhj6sh
Conor Sen with Macro Market Perspective
"It is what it is, but it ain't what you think." - Brandon Spikes
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2010/05/conors-macro-ma...
Conor gives you his perspective, numbers to ponder, and Rumsfeldian known and unknown unknown.