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Bill Cara’s Blog for Sept 8, 2010 [See post-close report]

Morning Call [6:41am ET] Within the past hour, i.e., since after 5am ET, there has been an effort made by interventionists to remove the overnight pressure of a strong Yen and Dollar, which had been weakening the S&P future to a low of almost 1086, equities in Europe, commodities and precious metals. Up this point it appeared that crisis was on the doorstep for equity Bulls. Some may say it still is, but I think that now that the S&P 1088 gap has been filled, higher prices (except bonds) are ready to unfold. We shall see.

What I’ll be watching this morning is for the Bulls to be supported by a stronger Euro, Loonie and Aussie and a weaker US Dollar and Yen, and that the Yen weakens against the Dollar. I suppose all of this is possible if the Bank of Japan is willing to depressurize the situation by selling Yen, which had reached all-time record highs against the Dollar.

On a purely fundamental basis, there are some value plays in the market today. Cisco (CSCO $20.58, with yesterday’s low of $20.53 coming a few minutes before the close) is one. There are many others, and broad based buying of them would result in the S&P turning bullish this month against prevailing market sentiment.

At this point, I have to trade day to day, week to week. I cannot project prices to the end of the month even, but I do think that trading in the forex market will be the ‘tell’. The big question is, will the Dollar weaken (as started after 5am ET this morning) through today, and then through Friday’s close, opening the minds of traders to the bullish value stories I know are out there ready for play – or will the Euro flounder and the Yen continue its power trip, signaling more selling of risk.

While I think we will see S&P at 1115 before 1065, none of us knows. However, we can all watch the scoreboard and plan our trades.

EURJPY chart:
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Forex monitor:
blog_sep_8.2.gif

European bank stock trading monitor this morning:
blog_sep_8.3.gif

Spot silver chart:
blog_sep_8.4.gif

Spot Gold chart:
blog_sep_8.5.gif

Futures price table:
blog_sep_8.6.gif

Remember to watch the volume.

Have a good day.

CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report

Our game plan over the past few days has been to buy S&P 1085 and sell 1115. Unfortunately the market has been unable to reach either trigger area, meaning we have done a whole lot of nothing this week.

A successful Portuguese debt offering seemed to give world equity markets a lift early Wednesday morning, offsetting the negative European bank stress test news commentary, which dominated the news yesterday. While high beta names such as Priceline (PCLN+5.53%), Apple (AAPL+1.90%), and Goldman Sachs (GS+1.60%) provided early upside leadership, semiconductor downgrades weighed on the market, tempering investor enthusiasm for equities and ultimately putting a lid on the early morning rally (S&P+0.64%).

There has been a lot of chatter in the financial press about Hindenburg Omens, VIX Bollinger thrust buy alerts (read “stock market” sell signal), and other dire warnings of financial apocalypse. These types of attention getting headlines might boost newsletter subscriptions, but rarely translate into timely trading advice and outsized profits for ardent followers.

The bottom line is that no one knows what the future holds. Many of us offer our best guesses about the most probable future outcome, but Mr. Market operates on his timetable, not ours. Taking off your forecasting glasses will allow you to see price action objectively without directional bias, and dramatically improve your “feel” for the market.

Technicians are debating the merits of conflicting head and shoulders patterns. Bulls are pointing to an inverse H&S formation targeting S&P 1250 while Bears are certain a traditional topping H&S projects 860.

Time will tell.

That being said, it feels like the path of least resistance right now is higher. Looking to buy weakness against S&P 1080ish gives Bulls well-defined risk parameters, with a first target of 1115. Sustained bond weakness (TLT-0.93%) would be a good indication investors are growing increasingly comfortable holding risk and boosting equity holdings.

Have a great evening.

– Patrick Veech


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Comments

H-P sues ex-CEO

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487043...

I am constantly amazed that corporations look to the courts to fight employment contract battles when all that's needed is for all employers and key employees to have previously agreed to put any disagreement to an independent and objective industry expert panel that could decide these issues privately, confidentially and in days.

Re: H-P sues ex-CEO

That's the American way though Bill.:-)

Cara 100 Ratings Changes

Good morning.

BA - Boeing initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital. Target $78

COST - Costco upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman based on valuation, improving fundamentals, and potential catalysts. Target to $68 from $62.

ECA - EnCana upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC based on relative valuation. Target $37

INTC - Intel downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS following PC supply chain checks that indicate weak near-term PC demand, expected price reductions to stimulate demand, and resulting margin pressure. Target to $19.50 from $28

SLB - Wells Fargo Initiates with an Outperform.

UTX - United Technologies initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital. Target $86

Home Prices Overrepresented By Up To 40%?

A few days ago, this topic was posted here and elsewhere on the internet.

"Are Existing Home Prices Overrepresented By Up To 40%? new
Submitted by Mark H (142 comments) on Thu, 09/02/2010 - 07:11 #68362
Zero Hedge investigates.
http://bit.ly/aKevLq"

From someone who I trust in the RE business, here is what he wrote to me.

"John,
Well as far as what Value is reported, HUD always has an as-is appraisal done before they list a property. They always list that on the MLS. That is simply what the property is valued at. Just about all foreclosures sell for as much as 10-15% below what the market value is. When you buy a HUD home they actually provide the appraisal that they had done to justify that "As-Is" value that they advertise. When a HUD home sells, it is their policy that they report the appraised value at the time they put it on the market and also the sold price. On top of that all auctions can be very misleading. They give the illusion that you can buy a house cheaper because there is no real estate commissions or transfer and recordation taxes paid by the seller. However you probably know that when you buy a property at auction you normally pay a buyers premium of 10-15%. Say a property that went to auction say for 100,000 but the buyer actually paid $115,000 because he paid the buyers premium and all transfers. Then the agent reports it to the MLS as sold for $115,000. What is the difference between that and the house that sold for $115,000 but the seller paid the commission and split the transfer taxes? You are legally allowed to report to the MLS "The Entire" amount paid by the buyer as the sold price for the property. I dont think the person that wrote that blog took that into consideration. It seems to me that they wrote a one sided blog without a full understanding of how "sold prices" are reported. Blogs like that bother me because I think if people are going to try and create controversy on an issue they should actually know what they are talking about first.

Hope that helps"

Leaning long

Redeploying 25% of cash to a few longs. Should the indexes move up from here, I don't think they will allow reentries at last week's lows.

BAC/CSCO/INTC/WFC/XOM @ pre-market averages of 13.28/20.71/18.11/25.04/60.62.

$USD

I have been watching the Euro, yen and $USD since Bill posted this morning.
On ADVFN the $USD is now up against the Euro and yen +0.01% & +0.11% respectively, while the Euro is +0.15% on the yen and down 0.01% on the $USD

I expect the market to rise a bit then sell off later today. Just my guess, don't trade on it.
J

BBG: German Industrial Production Rises Less Than Forecast

German exports fell and industrial production rose less than economists forecast in July, suggesting the recovery in Europe’s largest economy is losing momentum.

Sales abroad dropped 1.5 percent from the previous month, while production increased 0.1 percent, reports from the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden and the Economy Ministry in Berlin showed today.

The German economy may be cooling after expanding at the fastest pace in two decades in the second quarter. Retail sales unexpectedly fell for a second month in July and manufacturing growth eased in August, data this month showed. Still, business confidence rose to a three-year high and Daimler AG, the world’s second-biggest manufacturer of luxury cars, said last week that Mercedes-Benz sales jumped in August as Chinese demand soared.

Still holding short

Looking for today's gap up to be filled and the day ending near flat. Expect to see selling to continue into Thursday with a possible target around the 1080 area. Plan to cover at that time.

Re: Comments on yuan yesterday

Strangelove

Oh, I’m patient. I’ve actually placed some funds in the yuan (renminbi) late last year and again this summer as a hedge. The reason I responded to your post was your statement “ . . since it can't go down and only up relative to the dollar.”

It reminded me of a close friend who back in 2006 said real estate prices never go down ;)

Interesting to see the current relationship between a strong yen and weak yuan. Article headline this morning:

China buys more Japan Government Bonds in July

WSJ . . . granted a lot of risk averse traders piling into yen, but article speculates that growing money flow could be contributing to the yen’s recent strength . . .

http://tinyurl.com/2bo5kvh

FT: Goldman veteran to join Glaxo as finance chief

Simon Dingemans, one of Goldman Sachs’ veteran dealmakers in London, is leaving the bank to join drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline as chief financial officer at a time when global mergers and acquisitions activity is starting to heat up.

Mr Dingemans, the head of Goldman’s European M&A business, will join Glaxo in January after a 15-year career at the bank, where he advised companies such as Boots on its merger with Alliance in 2006.

He was made partner at the bank in 2000 after advising Sir Christopher Gent, then chief executive of Vodafone, on its €11bn ($14bn) hostile bid for MannesMann, which is still the world’s biggest hostile takeover. Sir Christopher is currently chairman of Glaxo.

http://bit.ly/cLcY2j

Canada

"The Bank now expects the economic recovery in Canada to be slightly more gradual than it had projected in its July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), largely reflecting a weaker profile for U.S. activity. Inflation in Canada has been broadly in line with the Bank's expectations and its dynamics are essentially unchanged.

"Against this backdrop, the Bank decided to increase its target for the overnight rate to 1 per cent. As a result of monetary policy measures taken since April, financial conditions in Canada have tightened modestly but remain exceptionally stimulative. This is consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in an environment of significant excess supply in Canada.

GMCR

Gonna squeeze this baby to new highs..

Services

Highlights
Information sector revenue for the second quarter rose a sequential 0.8 percent to an adjusted $290.9 billion vs. a revised 0.9 percent gain in the first quarter (plus 1.1 percent first reported). Year-on-year, information sector revenue rose 2.7 percent vs. a 2.2 percent gain in the first quarter. Employment services revenue rose an adjusted 5.4 percent from the first quarter vs. the first quarter's 5.3 percent gain. Year-on-year, employment services were up 20.9 percent vs. plus 11.0 percent in the first quarter. Unadjusted data of interest include a 10.0 percent sequential second-quarter gain for transportation & warehousing and a fractional 0.1 percent rise for finance & insurance.

Re: Comments on yuan yesterday

Seamus -

Chinese gov't officials are now intent to allow yuan to trade outside its borders as seen by the recent MCD yuan-denominated bond offering and another pending with WMT. American business is always a sucker for 1.3 billion population no matter how controlled it may be. Allowing the yuan to gradually float in a free market trading environment bodes well for a rise against the almighty buck.

Must piss off the Japanese to no end to see their yen rise against the yuan on all that debt accummulation by their big buddy next door. Thanks for the article.

In regards to real estate never going down, would it not be equivalent to say the yuan never goes up? Gov't manipulation played or plays a big role in both situations.

Yuan position remains my safe haven for 'cash' right now.

question on CREE

Does anyone know why CREE gets punished so badly these days. This was a wonder play in 2009 and I'm tempted, but it keeps falling hard.

EDIT: It's not just CREE. Semis are also very week today. Something is amiss. I'm not buying in my ST accounts and will tighten stops in LT accounts.

mostly long and strong...

1/3 position of gold sold today.

feeling that this is a weak spike up on low volume,
GDXJ is leading the way, not what I like to see,
most miners are not looking good today on what should be a stronger up day.

my feeling is a possible large downward swoop is looming right now,
but in context of a larger upward trend.

careful gang, i feel better having unloaded 1/3 and can reload later.

while many feel a dump in the broad markets is in the cards, i feel the market will move against most people as it always does, leaving many behind or leaving many broke with unsustainable short positions.

being bearish and down on the economy is becoming too much in fashion, with every tick up in the indicies someone switches to slighly bearish or cautious stances just to avoid being the guy who was bullish before the dump. this kind of protectionism creates an industry that will continue to not earn solid returns for clients as they are long when they shouldnt be and cautious when nothing is happening. imho.

gold is different, it can dump $100 in a day while the broad market sill moves. the anticipation of stimulus or of inflationary forces is what drives gold, while the actual implementation happens long after gold has baked this in the cake. be cautious about over inflationary interpretations, we have been waiting for this official inflation for years and its not unfolding as most said it would (despite their obsfucation that it may have).

$CPCE

I'm entranced by $CPCE (CBOE Equity Put/Call Ration) INDX which spiked today and shows a top of 3.08 down to 0.78 on a 3day, one minuet chart. The ATR spike today was the largest since 2004.

7 Things To Do To Improve

From The Kirk Report http://tinyurl.com/2bdyc8v

Headers are:

1. Stop believing the market is logical
2. Concentrate your holdings
3. Stop chasing performance
4. Turn off the noise
5. Understand your limitations and strengths
6. Accept you will make many mistakes
7. Become a specialist, not a jack of all trades

Re: question on CREE

jack- According to another blogger, it's the UBS chip call. Haven't had time to check out the news.

Re: H-P sues ex-CEO

the comments pertaining to the American use of the courts this morning brought a smile to my face when I read the following:

"US Investors Sue Germany Over Weimar-Era Bonds

A group of American investors have filed several lawsuits to pressure Germany to honor bonds issued by the Weimar Republic...

The investors argue that a German victory in this case could have negative consequences for the global bond market -- it would damage investors' confidence, they claim, in the security of all government bonds."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,151...

Re: mostly long and strong...

"be cautious about over inflationary interpretations, we have been waiting for this official inflation for years and its not unfolding as most said it would (despite their obsfucation that it may have)." - dr.cosa

Yeah, no inflation in my medical premium, energy bills, tuition, groceries ...

stocks raising hard on flat TLT and Yen.

Actually yen is raising some. I don't like it and I placed a small short in my ST account via FAS puts. Very short term trade of course.

Re: $CPCE

This doesn't work intraday on stockcahrts. Only closing value makes sense. Believe me I've been there.

Re: Still holding short

Just an update. There are currently negative divergences [distribution] on the 1,5,10 mins SPY charts. At 2PM the Fed's Beige Book comes out so maybe bad news awaits. I find it hard to believe that today's rally's is due to this;

"Strong demand at an auction for Portugal's debt early Wednesday helped relieve some concerns that resurfaced this week about the health of Europe's banking industry."

http://tinyurl.com/24y2jb7

Guess we will know in 2 hrs. I maybe eating crow at the EOD.

My Gold Short

Yesterday there were a few post who said they could not see what I saw on my GLD chart. This is how I see it.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=60&yr=0&mn=...

I agree it could be argued that I did enter the short too early. But I just started to build a small position with a wide mental stop. The reason for the confidence in this trade so far is that as the gold price has been rising,the leading indicator that I watch has been showing a negative divergence [distribution]on the longer time frames. Most likely a coming correction in gold may not be the busting of the precious metal bubble but a shakeout for smart money to enter at lower prices. But once the indicator shows a positive divergence then I will close it out ASAP.

That is my story [trade] and I am sticking to it. :-)

More Gold M&A - Anatolia to acquire Australia's Avoca for C$1.08

It's definitely acquire or be acquired for these gold producers/developers that are in the $1B-$5B market cap area. This one looks purely like a move Anatolia is making to avoid being taken over by one of the big boys...........

------------------------------------------------

* Deal to create a new intermediate gold miner

* Deal unanimously approved by boards of both companies

* Anatolia shares down 6.4 pct on Toronto Stock Exchange

(Changes dateline, adds details, background)

By Euan Rocha

TORONTO, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Canada's Anatolia Minerals Development Ltd (ANO.TO) said on Wednesday it plans to acquire Australia's Avoca Resources (AVO.AX) for C$1.08 billion ($1.04 billion), creating a new intermediate gold miner focused on projects in Turkey and Australia.

The offer represents a premium of about 9 percent to Avoca's Wednesday close of A$3.34 on the Australian Stock Exchange. Under the deal, each Avoca shareholder will receive 0.4453 common shares of Anatolia for each ordinary share of Avoca tendered.

The combined company, with a market capitalization of about C$2 billion, will take the name Alacer Gold Corp and its shares will trade on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Australian Stock Exchange.

Both board of directors have recommended the deal, which is structured as a merger of equals. Pala Investments, Avoca's largest shareholder, has also said it intends to support the deal in the absence of a superior proposal.

Near-record gold prices have fueled a spate of deals in the gold sector this year, with the Anatolia-Avoca deal coming on the heels of Goldcorp's (G.TO) C$3.6 billion bid to acquire Australian-listed Andean Resources (AND.AX).

REDUCED GEOGRAPHICAL RISK

Anatolia is focused on the development of three key projects in Turkey. Its flagship Copler gold-silver project is set to begin production later in 2010. Avoca, which owns mines in southwestern Australia, expects to produce about 280,000 ounces of gold in fiscal 2011.

Anatolia's shareholders will benefit from Avoca's strong development and operating experience, said Anatolia Chief Executive Ed Dowling, adding that Anatolia was also reducing risks by diversifying into Australia.

The deal is subject to the approval of shareholders of both companies and regulatory approvals in both Australia and Canada.

Shares of Anatolia were down 6.4 percent to C$7.31 in morning trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

In a joint statement, the companies said Alacer Gold's board will have nine members, with four each from the current Anatolia and Avoca boards, plus one representative from Pala.

Avoca Chairman Rob Reynolds will assume the role of non-executive chairman of Alacer Gold, while Anatolia's Dowling will serve as the CEO of the new company, which will have headquarters in Denver, Colorado.

The deal is expected to close in December 2010, or early in 2011. Alacer is expected to produce 600,000 ounces of gold in 2013, with output rising to 800,000 ounces by 2015.

BMO Capital Markets acted as Anatolia's financial adviser, while Goldman Sachs acted on behalf of Avoca. ($1= $1.04 Canadian) (Reporting by Euan Rocha in Toronto and Bhaswati Mukhopadhyay in Bangalore; Editing by Frank McGurty)

Re: $CPCE

Thank you Jack
J

INTC capitulation day

Hidden by today's move up in SPX, INTC has capitulated today. You can see this in the chart INTC:SPY, which has the 7-day RSI for the ratio at an astonishingly low 5.71. This massive (relative) move down has been hidden by the overall market's move up during the past week or so.

FD: Small put write today in INTC.

Cara 100 Update (Final)

AAPL - estimates, target raised at UBS. Shares of AAPL now seen reaching $350. Estimates also increased, as the iPad continues to see strong demand. Buy rating.

BBY - numbers cut at BB&T. Shares of BBY now seen reaching $42. Estimates also lowered, given lower expected flat-panel sales.

MCD - target raised at Deutsche to $83. Company continues to post strong sales momentum. Buy rating.

try out

ROVI next.

Re: mostly long and strong...

"no inflation in my medical premium, energy bills, tuition, groceries"

inflation in groceries is too vauge, some have gone up while others have gone down. the price of meat (steak, chicken and fish) is notably cheaper year over year at my costco. improvements in supply chains (including china) and flash freezing for fish has allowed more to come to market at cheaper prices than previously, but the cost reductions have nothing to do with inflationary effects as much as logistical.

the same with beef in which meat sold in bulk a la costco is cheaper than at the grocery store. for those who note a price increase they may be looking at specific things but it may or may not be the result of inflation, especially considering many commodities are below their peak of 1-2 years ago. something else is at play.

medical bills and insurance always goes up, no matter inflation, deflation or stagflation.

rising prices in these items are not imho indicative of the type of inflation we are referring to when discussing precious metals, as the rising cost of beef is not really correlated to the POG, there are simply too many factors at play.

natural gas is at a serious down trend while other energy/PM's are steadily rising.

inflation is like crime rates, no matter what the stats say people will always perceive crime to be high and rising. we are at historical lows for crime here in canada, already a safe nation in general, yet media is saturated with images of crime and violence and even clear statistical evidence does nothing to sway people.

thus people behave as if things are more dangerous and feed a self-validating perception each time they do hear of specific crimes. much the same way with cost increases, anyone who remembers the 60's and 70's knows that the average middle class dwelling and lifestyle was materially much less than what we percieve it to be now. a typical family home now is much large, has a garage, though more likely a 2 car garage, instead of vacations to cottage country or florida its all-inclusives to the carribean, and delux cable.

the difference is our standards are different and it is more difficult to keep up with what we beleive to be a standard of living, those steaks may cost more but thats because you believe them to cost more of your limited share of income which may or may not have kept up.

the medical industry much like the insurance industry will never ever ever finally sit back and say that prices are commensurate. they will continue to push much like the manufactures have to rise prices, to demand more for what they do. the issue is not if you are deserving, its a matter of price rises will be the result of lobbied and collective action by a specific group, not the result of inflation.

as MRI's get cheaper, as india increases the pace of their medical facilities, and as the mid-teir of medical jobs that used to require considerable education become more accessbile to more people, wages will not continue to rise as they did, and being a doctor or a nurse will be all the less lucrative just like a carpenter's salary could raise a family 50 years ago a doctor will soon been just a decent middle class earner.

everyone will want to up their wages because of their belief that prices elsewhere are rising. the government of ontario lowered their costs for MRI's by about %25 citing the increased availability of lower cost and more efficient MRI's in the Provence. essentially new machines and ongoing innovation forced the providers into lowering prices simply because they now know the next generation machines can produce better images at lower costs.

that type of payment reduction represents efficiencies and innovations, and is rarely considered during discussions of costs, no only the increases are referred to and most remembered.

medicine is undergoing a change in some respects, many areas are now easily transferable to less educated people who can demand lower wages. something only nurses did 30 years ago is done by a RNA or technician. these represent improvements (just like having to see a doctor for a script for meds that eventually are avaible over the counter, that represents less costs for the system when someone doesnt have to see a doctor to get meds)

eventually surgery, done by robots and minimally invasive methods will improve to the point where less and less people are needed with the kinds of advanced skills that high level surgoens require as more surgery will become routine. (and new innovation will be directed towards other fields or areas, boosting the entire efficiency process).

what im saying is that your steak may cost more, but your home heating (gas) may cost less, and your car may require less on maintenance costs than those of 30 years ago when steak was half the price, and you spend $50 less for meds because you need only drive to the pharmacy, not the doctors for an appointment too. picture this efficiency process occuring in a host of areas of your life.

?

Something is up. At least it appears to be. The leading indicators on SPY DIA IWM QQQQ charts have all gone negative quickly over the last 20 mins meaning distribution is quickly taking place. Guess well see by EOD.

Re: ?

Agree FinViz chart.

AttachmentSize
spxfinviz9-8-10.png 31.54 KB

Today's Action

Today looks like a pump and dump at this point.

Still got time for a fill

http://tinyurl.com/29sv6dl

Also seeing new lows for the leading indicator in both 1 & 5 min time frames. There is NO buying here by the smart money.

Beige Book

Short Idea

PCLN

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PCLN&p=D&yr=1&mn=...

The leading indicator is showing a negative divergence. I am short right now PCLN. Hoping this one falls off a cliff and dies! :-)

1 mim http://www.screencast.com/t/MDQ3ZTc2N

5 min http://www.screencast.com/t/YWNlMWM2Mz

30 min http://www.screencast.com/t/YTZjYzYwMjE

Re: mostly long and strong...

A beautiful description of producitivity improvements, Dr. Cosa. Since the Feds adjust price levels hedonically, that comparable new Chevy Impala is carried on 'their' inflation adjusted books at $11,500 a pop.

I define inflation as the diminution of the purchasing power of FRN money. Compare apples to apples. A Federal Reserve note buys 10Kw of electricity. It used to buy 30Kw. Did the price of electricity go up or did the purchasing value of my money decline? I leave that to the rhetoricians.

Today future debt obligations are being created to feed 40,000,000 Americans enrolled in the food stamp program. People on the dole are literally eating your grandkids futures.

Back to apples. They used to be sold by the peck or the bushel. Now you buy them by the pound.

I'm all for productivity but I resent being taxed on it by a government that can't keep an honest set of books.

Tobyt,

sorry, forgot to mention the re-position from last night.... ' arry ' .. very strong partnerships and phase II pipeline ( as you know ).. new updraft has $ 4.50 as 6 month near-term ( unless of course the entire market tanks ! ) Wear protection !

BREAKING NEWS..

3:38pBREAKING

Goldman Sachs faces near-record fine in U.K.: FT

I guess here is another catalyst to drive the financials down again..

Re: BREAKING NEWS..

Wow... I hope you don't use that source for real time news... look at the time stamp:

15:12:44
The Goldman Sachs Group Inc UK's FSA expected to announce fine as early as tommorow following a five-month investgation - FT
- FSA began an investigation in April after the SEC charged Goldman with misleading investors in the Abacus transaction.
- People familiar with FSA's fine say that it is not based specifically on Abacus, but results from its investigation into the bank's business practices in London sparked by the SEC allegations.

***Reminder: On 04/20 the FSA said it would commence a formal probe regarding SEC charges against Goldman Sachs in regards to the Abacus transaction.

Edit: Oh, and btw: GS FSA fine to come in at roughly $30M - BBC (

... Hardly something for GS to lose sleep over.

Re: Short Idea

Bev.. I like your charts and contributions! please keep them coming and best of luck to you. BTW, I am long on Gold miners still and will add more on any weaknesses. If people take profit here in miners they may not be able to get back in at lower prices again. Every body know this market is a news driven market these days in such a slow economy, therefore, any major negative news could drive gold prices sharply up above any one's expectations and people will be forced to cover their shorts or chase prices higher and higher. GOLD is an excellent HEDGE in this market, not high yield Blue chips stocks, not Bonds, not treasuries, not even CASH. Yes, only GOLD, that how strong I feel about it long term. Forget taking profit in Gold in short terms, just stay long and add more to your position at any gold weakness. That’s my opinion.

GLTA

Re: Leaning long/ Going long in the buy-and-hold half as well

Going long again in the buy-and-hold half- using a more conservative fund, however: OAKBX.

Re: Still holding short

Well.. we didn't close the gap and we surely didn't end the day flat so I guess I better put the crow in the oven now. Still showing negative divergences on the indicator on all time frames. Still short looking for a gap down tomorrow.

Note: analyst65 thanks for the support! I agree with a lot of your thoughts on gold. But it looks like to me the gold ship is listing to much to one side and they might decide to rock it a bit to throw some people over board. Like I mentioned earlier once I see a positive divergence with the indicator on GLD I am covering and running to your side of the boat! I currently don't trade as either a bull or bear now but as a wolf. I look for weakness and try to exploit it. The gold boat tipping to one side now looks like weakness to me. Time will tell. Of course there is always the chance that I might be eating crow again. :-)

Re: stocks raising hard on flat TLT and Yen.

Sold most of the puts at day close as they were very leveraged and I'm weary about opening gaps. I'm thinking down day tomorrow but one cannot be sure.

Re: BREAKING NEWS..

:)) , not really VAD, I know that site is delayed quite a bit. But just happened to see it posted there and I shared it here.

In general I agree that today's market action was pump and dump, nothing less, nothing more. Many people last week were waiting for the big smart money to come in droves after the long weekend and buy this market up and up but so far we have not seen that. So what does that tell us, hummm. I guess it's not hard to figure it out, is it? :)

Re: mostly long and strong...

Dr Cosa, Dr. Strangelove, Ross,

"...being bearish and down on the economy is becoming too much in fashion..."

If you are speaking of market analysts, I guess we could very well see an extension of the rally, but I doubt "long" as in months or years will prove to be wise right now.

For those who have a life expectancy in decades perhaps it will work out OK, but for many these days, including the baby boomers and old-timers like me — we are looking at economic conditions shorter term. The eventual cost of an MRI or the price of a Chevy means little if you just tapped your pension and paid a 10% early withdrawal penalty.

I for example, am concerned about stretching my capital for a max of 20 years for my wife and myself. I see some things going up steadily ("must pay items" — taxes and insurance), but others are good bargains ("optional buys" — coupons for "Buy one dinner get one free!"). Others who have no job, are working multiple part time jobs, or fear loss is immanent — the next house payment is of more concern than inflation or deflation.

Such situations are multiplying without much good news to change attitudes — which do lean toward bearish and are real downers.

Re: BREAKING NEWS..

Oh, OK, as long as delay is disclosed... I guess combination of term "breaking news" and such delay triggered my radar alert :)

I am not sure why it was expected from big guys to BUY this market upon return... why not short it? :) Also, from the volume it doesn't look like they are back in action yet, rather looking and thinking...

This video reminds me of the S&P lately

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/09/07/cruise-sh...

OK... my crow is done! See everyone tomorrow.

Re: mostly long and strong...

a fair response grym,

though i believe we are looking at 2 very different things.

i cannot recall a time in my rather short life when the common theme was not about helping the economy and about people struggling. this theme repeats itself no matter what the state of the economy is, especially in the US where every election campagin is principally about jobs. why?

because at any given time there were rust belts in mining, manufacturing and other old guard industries that were the fodder for the whole "decline of american empire" that people have been bemoaning about for 80 years.

yes right now things are worse than they were a few years ago, but in spite of the boom times look at the rhetoric coming from most pundits and politicians for the past several decades, its the same:

reduce deficits, balance budgets, focus on economy, create jobs, fund innovation... blah blah blah blah.

certain destruction was always just around the corner, if it wasnt the hun's in WW2 it was the communists, then the japanese, now its the chineese, terrorists and evangelicals....

the idea is that what we expect is much higher than it was several decades ago, (as per my middle class family comparison) thus people see a decline in this higher expectation as an overall decline which in reality is simply a fall from the high point. its like gold "falling" to $1050, which would be met with sadness and described by the bugs as a "collapse", yet 3 years ago the idea of $1050 gold was fantasy.

we have come far over the past 40 or 50 years both in real terms and globally. but the super boom of the early 2000 left us a bit ahead of ourselves. in reality price increases are subject to a host of different factors. those apples being purchased may cost more now simply because its cheaper to sell those apples overseas, or to apple sauce producers, or to use apple tree land for corn. for better or worse, buying apples by the basket is not a logistically sound as it once was. hence they cost more. considering the cost of many grains and softs are above 10 year levels its not surprising, but those prices are below those of about 2 years ago, so something else is causing existing price rises, and i dont believe its any sort of monetary inflation just yet.

ultimately insurance costs more because insurance companies must convince us that costs are rising to justify higher premiums. when times were great costs still went up, even with crime at all time lows police budgets still rise year over year in canada. but a cop's salary is higher now than the 70's, is that inflation or that cops now have advanced degrees they never used to, must learn to use computers and conduct more complex tasks than 40 years ago. lower crime is better and saves money from the imprisonment standpoint but is lower crime a product of better cops? if so the cost is worth it and doesnt reflect any sort of inflation, only skill sets.

back to my medical perspective. there are a host of opinions but i will provide this basic fact:

MRI's were almost nonexistant 40 years ago, people with lumps on their head that didnt meet certian diagnostic criteria would be sent home. if complications developed surgery may have been planned. for all the people who went home and didnt require care, medical costs stopped there, and quite a few may have then went on to die because of swelling that wasnt caught. MRI's come along and mandates change, serious bumps on the head require MRI's, and eventually some not so serious ones if they meet said criteria. now we incur a $300 cost(aprox) in all cases vs. the higher costs in just a few cases.

all in all i feel safer knowing this technology can help prevent complications, but it has a net cost to our system, but its worth it non? is it inflation if healthcare costs rise due in no small part to emerging diagnostic fees which we never incurred just a few decades ago?

heart surgeries are becoming more routine, they cost less and are safer than those of 40 years ago. what will happen when india obtains the same equipment and even better and with their lowered costs can offer the same level of skill and safety for surgery at 1/4 the cost? will insurance companies realize the beneift that flying a person to india for surgery is still cheaper than just paying for american care?

if things get as bad as many doctors will claim, if they are unable to keep up on what they are allowed to charge, eventually the market will shift, and you will see the proliferation of clinics as we are already seeing for medical tourism. drugs too eventually. its cheaper to pick up what you need for the year in costa rica and save a few thousand (if youre on alot of meds) and have a vacation and hip replacement while your down there for a fraction of the cost.

how can this happen? innovation and expertise making medical care that was once only accessible to the skilled and wealthy more available to all.

i can zap a skin tag with a $10 kit from the pharmacy, something that just 10 years ago required a $120 MD visit and procedure. somehow this was deemed safe enough to be trusted to citizens, saving me $110 that i may have to spend on the higher price of my groceries. is that really inflation?

Re: mostly long and strong...

"i can zap a skin tag with a $10 kit from the pharmacy, something that just 10 years ago required a $120 MD visit and procedure. somehow this was deemed safe enough to be trusted to citizens, saving me $110 that i may have to spend on the higher price of my groceries. is that really inflation?" - dr.cosa

My medical premium has increased from $20/mo 30 years ago to $770/mo now for a 3850% increase. That doesn't include my family members which run it up to $2,300/mo. plus deductables. But here's the thing, dr.cosa: I survived pancreatic cancer with less than a 1% chance a decade ago and would not be alive today to harass this board had my wife not worked the U.S. system to get my initial cat scan and then assemble the best surgical team in the business to work a miracle on me. Let me just say your quaint notions of pharmaceutical bargains and cheap surgeries in Central America in a deflationary world makes me LAUGH OUT LOUD. Oh, I'm a Type II diabetic and found a few good deals on supplies but my daughter's latest EpiPen order was $760 .... mind you, we're both fit as fiddles, thank you.

Did you know big Pharma only targets meds that can return no less than $1 billion per annum like Pfizer's Viagra ... for the well being of humanity? Oh, but Pfizer just packed up and left my community of Ann Arbor, Michigan, and 1,000s of high paying jobs because its pipe line of magic megabuck meds isn't paying off.

Rant off.

Cheers.

Re: BREAKING NEWS..

Vad - Rosh Hashanah started tonight at sunset. Expect low volume tomorrow.

Another bank robbery today

Every other day our local news has another news report of a bank being robbed in our mid sized community. Multiple break-ins, and armed robberies are the norm any more. Just a few years ago there wasn't any news of a bank robbery if my memory serves me.
In our mid sized community the unemployment rate is only 6.9%. If robberies are going to be the way of the future, it's going to jeopardize the safety of many people in all communities with this continual rise in unemployed people.
It must be hard to feel safe in communities with high unemployment like Detroit or Chicago where the auto industry has been cut back for the last few years.
Maybe we'll all be forced into carrying guns for self preservation before this recession is over........

Re: mostly long and strong...

Dr. Cosa,

"...yes right now things are worse than they were a few years ago, but in spite of the boom times look at the rhetoric coming from most pundits and politicians for the past several decades, its the same:

reduce deficits, balance budgets, focus on economy, create jobs, fund innovation... blah blah blah blah."

When were the "boom times" you speak of? The average U.S. citizen has been losing ground for over thirty years. The rich have gotten richer by selling U.S. jobs, switching defined pension plans (except for public and union ones) to semi-self-directed 401(k) plans (great for Wall St.) The other boom times were based on the tech bubble and the housing bubble when gullible people sold their future to the mortgage scam.

As for this part:

"...reduce deficits, balance budgets, focus on economy, create jobs, fund innovation... blah blah blah blah."

Sure the political talk is always the same, but none of it has ever been done. Big difference!

"...certain destruction was always just around the corner, if it wasnt the hun's in WW2 it was the communists, then the japanese, now its the chineese, terrorists and evangelicals...."

Politicians thrive on crises, but the cries of "the sky is falling" are sometimes legit. You may be too young to remember but WW2 was a major problem — I'll leave it at that rather than debate the others.

I am probably from the last generation who was able to support a family of four comfortably without my wife needing to work. (After the kids were grown she did work, but strictly by choice.) There is a detailed report showing how many per family are working and how small the increase in household income really is.

http://www.census.gov/prod/3/98pubs/p23-196.pdf

The slowdown in various segments in the past are nowhere near like what we are seeing to day with millions out of work. The only thing keeping it from being a depression (openly admitted) is the fact that Social Security, unemployment insurance, food pantries and other programs which did not exist in the 1930s are masking the severity today.

looking at the daily charts of DJIA, DJ TRANS and S&P

get ready as money flow is about to turn negative after 5 weeks of pumping and dumping.

Re: question on CREE

Wow that's one ugly looking chart (see attached.) Lower lows, lower highs, 50d crossing 200d to downside, not a lot of support. Wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole. Held this one in the past but my timing was bad (as usual) and it was a losing trade.

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The Don't Pass Line

We rally tomorrow. 1-2%. Why?

(a) A major rally is on no one's radar, whereas
(b) A major sell-off, if not widely expected, would nonetheless surprise no one.

That's it. In this case (and only IMO), the table is crowded with shorts betting on a continuation of the (recent) down trend, while opening longs would be a quiet bet on the Don't Pass line.

FD- I'm wrong more than half the time. But I hope to successfully manage being wrong with a combination of tight stops on long positions opened this morning +/- adding an inverse ETF hedge of the position in OAKBX (which only trades EOD).

Re: The Don't Pass Line

My other 'impression' right now is that market character tilts more towards 'wall of worry' than 'slope of hope.' Again, that's JMO.

Re: INTC capitulation day

Dave-

Good luck with your trade. Been watching INTC (and CSCO) myself. Questioning the possibility of a gap fill though down to $16.50 or so (see attached chart) and concerned about the H&S/island top formation. Might be of interest for setting a stop if the trade doesn't pan out. MACD crossed in your favor from oversold (green circle) for whatever it's worth.

KC

AttachmentSize
intc.png 44.08 KB

Re: Still holding short

Bev,
I know you've commented on McHugh's work in the past. My experience has been that a lot of the Elliot Wave guys are like "the market will go down based on this wave count unless this alternate count is in play." Nonetheless, there are 6 Hindenburg omens on the clock and this new VIX sell signal (which was echoed at breakpoint trades.) I'm leaning bearish for Sept/Oct and intend to buy Nov SPY puts on any "rallies."
KC

It looks like we have a problem

It is structural:

http://home.comcast.net/~lcmgroupe/2010/Article-In...

Can the market rally tomorrow why sure the market does what it wants.

Re: looking at the daily charts of DJIA, DJ TRANS and S&P

Geoffrey that makes sense to me.

Re: mostly long and strong...

"Let me just say your quaint notions of pharmaceutical bargains and cheap surgeries in Central America in a deflationary world makes me LAUGH OUT LOUD"

good to hear you beat the odds and are a cancer survivor doctor,
my 'quaint notions' of the medical industry are neither quaint nor notions. the vast majority of surgical procedures performed in the US are also done by doctors outside the US, and while the best and most innovative will continue to be americans we shouldnt exclude the rest of the planet from being considered capable of providing safe and effective care for the host of conditions that millions of americans go under the knife for ever year:

hip and knee replacement
heart surgery
arthroscopic surgery
bariatric surgery
plastic surgery

Punta Pacifica Hospital in Panama has been under direct supervision of John Hopkins International and has a thriving medical tourism industry.

your comments contain what i consider a fairly typical american attitude towards other nations, as if to suggest that "central american" states or india and other emerging economies lack the most basic capabilities to perform surgeries that are routine in america.

face facts, hip surgery in a proper central american clinic can cost 1/2 of what it does in the US, and the question of how good is subjective considering there is a vast difference among hospitals within america as well.

not everyone can get or can afford the best of the best for any type of surgery, you dont see a surgeon to get a stich on your cut finger, nor do you need a team of 12 of the best orthopods to conduct routine arthroscopic knee surgery. its a question of making best use of existing resources.

we have enough examples of mistakes at hospitals in america to know that even the best make errors, the question is across the board can other nations be trusted to perform some tasks? we let other nations do most other things that require expertise, why is medicine immune?

Re: mostly long and strong...

I am going for hip replacement soon and it will be done right here in Peoria which is a regional medical center covered by my insurance and where my family now resides with me. Why would I consider Panama or Thailand?

Re: mostly long and strong...

Illini -

According to dr.cosa, you can do your physical therapy on the beach in Panama or Thailand if you don't get an infection and save big. dr.cosa seems to have missed the fact that surgery is mostly a one shot deal and all facilities, operating rooms, and staff are NOT created equal. I can tell you with some certainty that the best heart surgeons, for example, are in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, and not Cuba, Thailand or Panama. But there are bad heart surgeons in the U.S. and one lives and operates in Florida and killed my uncle. Shit happens. Just be sure your surgeon has performed no less than 10 hip surgeries before you say yes and best of luck. That's a simple and highly successful operation. My Whipple procedure, same as Steve Jobs, lasted almost 12 hours without a coffee break!

I thought this was about inflation?

TAX AND SPEND

ALOHA!!

On Sept 7th, the US Treasury reported a total YTD net tax revenue of $1.42TRIL USD. If the US Congress was serious about not spending beyond its means then we could only afford to pay for the following five(5) US Treasury Statement lines items.

Social Security - $545.1BILUSD
Medicare - $489.6BIL USD
Medicaid - $248.9BIL
Food & Nutrition - $82.3BIL USD
Energy Dept - $34.9BIL USD

TOTAL 2010 YTD OUTLAYS FOR THE ABOVE FIVE(5) LINE ITEMS = $1.41TRIL USD

All other US Treasury line items including the following could not be paid for ...

- Interest on Treasury Securities
- Defense Vendors
- Veterans Affair
- Military Payroll
- Dept of Defense
- Education
- Federal Employee Salaries
- Federal Employee Benefits
- NASA
- HUD
- SNAP Food Stamps
- GSA
- Health & Human Services
- Unemployment Benefits
- Federal Highways
- Dept. of Homeland Security
- Justice Dept.
- SBA
- Postal Service
- EPA
- State Dept.

Essentially America would have to shut down and there would be widespread rioting in the streets starting with Federal Employee Unions, as well as all the unemployed and Veterans and military, if the US Congress were forced to only spend within its means. Without US DEBT issues this country would be as bankrupt as Zimbabwe. There is your "safety net" ... DEBT ... unending DEBT!!! America is only viable as long as someone buys our DEBT. It doesn't even have to be China ... It could be Ben Bernanke! Talk about a "house of cards"! The exact opposite of the US FED's charter for the past 96 years, but completely in line with a monopolistic private banking cartel's not-so-hidden agenda of currency destruction. Each American can now see the true price of a corrupt monetary system right before our EYES WIDE SHUT!

ECONOMAGIC CPI

ALOHA!!

For Dr. Cosa and others who want to really see the consumer costs broken down in real terms either by city or region in the USA or over ALL CITIES in the USA go to ECONOMAGIC.

For instance this link is for Meats, Poultry, & Fish(protein) in ALL CITIES since 1935 ...
LINK: http://www.economagic.com/gif/g2080110040101230533...

There is even CPI data on ice cream, fruit and even haircuts and funeral expenses! There must be thousands of charts on every aspect of CPI from the early 1900s to 2010.

Here is a chart for "cookies" since 1977 ...
LINK: http://www.economagic.com/gif/g2080110040101233338...

So it does look as if ALL CITIES cookie prices have leveled off in 2010! Probably cracker prices are flat as well. Sell the Keebler gnomes ...

Here is food data just for Detroit/Ann Arbor/Flint, MI area since 1914 ...
LINK: http://www.economagic.com/gif/g2080110040101225942...

Yes I see a dip in 2008/2009 but in 2009/2010 the trend line is back to the long term trend of rising food prices. If you want to argue I also see significant price dips in 1950, 1973 and 1977 the same years that President Ford gave his famous FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION speech on national TV.

One thing both charts have in common is that in 1971 they all take off like a rocket. Is it just a coincidence that prices rose dramatically when Nixon took us permanently off the gold standard that year?

When you see the price of canned tuna in vegetable oil on sale do not assume we're in the Great Depression 2. As you can see by these charts we are at the tips of some gigantic inflationary icebergs.

What these charts say is that it is not price inflation or deflation you see here, but the value, the purchasing power, of a US Dollar that has dramatically shrunk. These charts show conclusive proof that since the US FED's inception their real agenda has been currency destruction. That has been the main function of central banks since the first one. Voter stupidity and monetary naivete is what allows this corrupt monetary ruse to continue.

ECONOMAGIC HOME PAGE ...
LINK: http://www.economagic.com/

Re: mostly long and strong...

Grym,
I'm only bearish on the U.S. economy and stocks during the midpoint of this cycle. I think it was Art Cashin who recently opined that this bear cycle has maybe 7 more years to run. Stocks are super cheap against treasuries on an earnings yield basis but if T-notes tank, stocks may need to flitter around current levels and grow earnings til the EPS bogey again settles close to the magic 7.

In the meantime, cycles.......cycle! There will be ups and downs, inventory mismanagement, Presidential cycle goosing by the Feds and all manor of tabloid hysteria will govern the day to day and month to month mood swings by those paid to encite controversy. It's the GAME! It's not played in the football or soccer venues but the BIG casino resides in the canyons of the financial capitals. Yet it is still the same 'panem et circenses.'

My fear is that we have run out of cheap labour to exchange for capital. I watched the Jap Yen go from 360 to the dollar to 100 in the space of 25 years. If the same happens with the Yuan/Dollar during the next 25 years, your made in Asia stainless steel hamburger flipper will cost you 3X more in REAL dollars.

Productivity increases are great. The genius of the West was/is aligning capital, labour and the creative destruction of invention to ease the burden of the common man. This we have done. However, too much has been paid to the financial interests. The engineers of capital who have squandered the peoples money on schemes for their personal enrichment have become anathema to common sense. Yet they are not punished.

My saved capital earns naught today because those in power will not allow markets to clear. The longer that they deny reality, the more severe will be the result.

I know that I must earn at least a 6% return on my free cash to stay even for the purchasing power of that cash. Unfortunately this requires that I trade financial instruements at least on a week by week basis. It is a waste of my time but necessary at this time in the 'cycle.' Land, cattle, commercial rental properties and mineral interests make up the bulk of my assets so my measly stock portfolio isn't the tail that wags the dog. However.....my 43 years experience with the financial markets have made me an addict. I think Bill would understand this. Financial markets are the lubricants of progress. They are only lubricants and should not be considered as ends in themselves.

You can never retire, you may only expire some blood and sweat on the road to Golgatha. In 2000 it was all about tech clicks and eyeballs. In 2005 it was all about real estate that never declines in price. In 2010 it's all about the return of your corpus via Treasuries. Is there a lesson here?

If you trade, only trade your pen money. When it is gone, walk away. If you want to invest, give Bill or Vad your money and then purpose yourself to what you do well. After all, investment money is simply excess income that only needs a home. I judge these two as honest Sherpas.

One last admonition. There are no pure 'asset.....classes.' That term is just some salesman's way of deflecting your attention to whatever he is selling. Precious metals are no more an asset class than Ming China. Both are collectable but neither pays you interest. Both may appreciate in money terms but only to the extent that your money yardstick declines.

Inflation deflation conflagration amelioconcationization are just made up symbolic words. If you truely believe in deflation, hoard cash and wait for 10 cent a loaf bread but be aware that the decimal point on your money may float at the pleasure of your government!

futures 2:30am - Asia mostly green

S&P -0.60 / -0.05%
Level 1,098.70
Fair Value 1,098.27
Difference 0.43
Nasdaq +19.50 / +1.05%
Level 1,877.00
Fair Value 1,880.06
Difference -3.06
Dow -4.00 / -0.04%
Level 10,388.00

Shanghai has pulled back. The ascending triangle remains intact but consolidation is, I suspect, giving bulls time to assess intentions elsewhere. The Dow Jones Shanghai Index that Twiggs follows has returned to support following break out. Awaiting confirmation of the breakout.

futures 5:30am

S&P +3.20 / +0.29%
Level 1,102.50
Fair Value 1,098.27
Difference 4.23
Nasdaq +3.75 / +0.20%
Level 1,881.25
Fair Value 1,880.06
Difference 1.19
Dow +28.00 / +0.27%
Level 10,420.00

Europe green - Autos and French Banks being bought.

$ is consolidating. Given that everyone is on the bond wagon, looking at breakdown as the least obvious trade. Trade what we see being the catch phrase of course.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/tradi...

Re: mostly long and strong...

Ross,

I see we're pretty much on the same page. Terminology is so widely misused and misconstrued it becomes irrelevant. I monitor my investments daily and shuffle as the wind blows, but always have my eye on the macro view.

Perhaps Cashin's 7-year cycle will be long enough for Americans to adjust to a new reality. Since WW2 we have been in the driver's seat — today we are mostly pretending we are.

Globalization is more than a passing fancy — those in charge (big money) have made the bulk of the job sale here, but the world is their oyster.

For the average citizen life must "play in Peoria" even with the sour notes of fewer benefits, lower wages and an overall diminished lifestyle.

My own longer term view is of an economy/government much like the UK. More government intrusion in our lives, higher taxes, less individual freedom, a smaller middle class and a larger segment on permanent welfare (the dole as they call it).

Eventually it will be a good time to own selected individual stocks at realistic prices. I expect commodity-based names to be the first to improve.

In the meantime, I'm going to be ultra defensive. It's my kids who worry me — especially my youngest who does what I did well with from age 19 to 63 (graphic arts). He's making less than half what he earned in 1990. My business income was 11% of my 20 year average in 2003 when I finally gave up working and began trading. I often joke my wife and I lived on doughnuts for a year due to a lot of luck with Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD);-)

Best of luck to you.

Reduced unemployment spurs calls for further % rate hike in Oz

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/09/3007...

Can't see where the jobs are going. Note that the increase in employment in seasonally adjusted. Trend growth remains flat at 5.2%.

How renewed slowdowns in mature European economies play out in Oz is unknown to me.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/79900...

If this is mining investment related then tightening interest rates are going to squeeze most home owners who are unrelated to mining.

Re: ECONOMAGIC CPI

So what do you think will be the end game? You provide so much valid and empirically sound data my awareness shudders to comprehend it all...a sort of Stockholm syndrome if you will because I do not want to believe it is happening to me.

Re: It looks like we have a problem

Submitted by gforce (240 comments) on Wed, 09/08/2010 - 23:08 #68768

http://home.comcast.net/~lcmgroupe/2010/Article-In...

http://home.comcast.net/~lcmgroupe/2010/Article-In...

Great article series by Gordon Long, innovator, formerly with IBM and MOT. Makes you weep how the capitalist agenda has been hijacked by government and assorted leeches.

His thesis:
Obama doesn't have a clue what's wrong or what to do about it.
The US has not accounted for intellectual capital and has allowed corps to run off with it scott free to take the manufacturing elsewhere. IC belongs to America and has not properly been compensated for incubating it.

Some proposed solutions:
500k paid up university scholarships to innovators
50k research and teaching positions re energy independence
Get off small business backs
Cut pub sector incomes in line with their employers (the private sector)
Actually fund ss and medicare, so people could have confidence in them.
Ask people if they want military ops in 130 countries
Develop a strategic plan for america.
Cut the lobbiests as promised
Make politicians actually read obamacare and fin reform 2000 page legislation docs before voting on.

ie common sense, accountability, responsibility, get out of the way and let people innovate and develop.

If some of this happened we wouldn't have to stay glued to our monitors all day and night.

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