Bill Cara's Blog for Apr 28, 2011 [See Post-Close report]

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning.

With all systems apparently a go for the Fed yesterday, traders decided to put the pedal to the metal. Meanwhile, capital risk is rising. We are now caught between a rock (elevated gold, silver, oil prices) and a hard place (over-sold US Dollar).

Analyst Colin Twiggs (incrediblecharts.com) is now targeting 71 for the USD, and 1.50 for the Euro, which, if it happens, would likely boost West Texas Crude Oil to 116, Gold to 1550 and Silver to a return to a 50 resistance level that would be a blow-off warning point.

At 8:30am ET, all eyes will be focused on the US GDP report from the Department of Commerce. I, for one, had been expecting downward adjustments, but the recent raft of positive earnings surprises and upward revenue guidance from America’s biggest corporations has me somewhat baffled. Hence, we will just wait for the report and watch the market reaction.

US GDP Q1 Advance Estimate.

Prior to release of the biased and politically motivated US Dept of Commerce data on 4/28/2011 8:30:00 AM ET, Econoday reported, GDP growth for the final estimate for the fourth quarter was revised up to 3.1% annualized growth from the second estimate of 2.8%. As with the prior estimate, the fourth quarter was still stronger than the third quarter pace of 2.6%. Demand numbers were little changed. Final sales of domestic product were unrevised net from the second estimate of 6.7%. Final sales to domestic purchasers (takes out net exports) were revised up marginally to 3.2% from the second estimate of 3.1% for the fourth quarter. On the inflation front, the GDP price index was unrevised compared to the second estimate of 0.4%.

What cannot be denied is the elevated inflation in China and India, along with the central bank tightening in those countries and the resultant lull in their equity market indexes over the past six months. At what point does the same situation hit America and Europe? That’s what we want to know.

Have a good day.

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Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol	Name	Last Trade	Change	Related Info
^ATX	ATX	2,800.00 6:30AM EDT	26.00 (0.92%)	Components, Chart, More
^BFX	BEL-20	2,759.10 6:58AM EDT	8.33 (0.30%)	Components, Chart, More
^FCHI	CAC 40	4,088.30 6:58AM EDT	20.58 (0.51%)	Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI	DAX	7,437.64 6:43AM EDT	32.69 (0.44%)	Components, Chart, More
^AEX	AEX General	360.20 6:43AM EDT	0.49 (0.14%)	Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX	OSE All Share	501.22 6:43AM EDT	1.40 (0.28%)	Components, Chart, More
^SMSI	Madrid General	N/A	0.00 (0.00%)	Chart, More
^OMXSPI	Stockholm General	368.53 7:00AM EDT	0.92 (0.25%)	Components, Chart, More
^SSMI	Swiss Market	6,504.35 6:43AM EDT	31.93 (0.49%)	Components, Chart, More
^FTSE	FTSE 100	6,067.18 6:43AM EDT	0.98 (0.02%)	Components, Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES




http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB




http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX




http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC




http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI




http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL




The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.

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Cara on Trends & Cycles

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Vad's Catch of the Day


The chart below shows a trade we took for 1:7 risk/reward; exploiting inverse relation between US dollar and SLW. Using UUP as indication and rough relation of 1 cent UUP movement to 15 cents of SLW, we shorted it as dollar started it's slight bounce. Chart requires no further explanations.

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Kaimu's Sound Money

THE BUDGET DEBATE

This is all you need to see to realize the foolishness of politicians when corrupt money is the base of society.

Courtesy Michael Ramirez Cartoon http://www.investors.com/EditorialCartoons/Cartoon.aspx?id=567991

Let me get right into the meat of this pie … The Aussies love a good “meat pie”! The problem once again is the overstated tax revenues. This pie projects a $2.174TRIL revenue. If we take FY2010 “net tax revenue” then total revenues for FY2010 are only $1.57TRIL. Obviously once again the CBO uses “gross tax revenues” not “net” for their projections since it makes the pie a lot more credible. In FY2010 gross tax revenues were slightly above $2TRIL. See here …

But then you can see the tax refunds issued took a big bite out of the gross here …

So you have to subtract the $468BIL in issued refunds to individuals and businesses in FY2010. A much more accurate revenue projection would be closer to $1.82TRIL, but why would the CBO and politicians want to admit to an even bigger deficit of $2TRIL?

Once again I have to point to more monetary absurdities that pervade financial media. As you can see by the pie total spending for FY2011 over at the US Treasury is $3.82TRIL. That is money out the door on all sorts of spending projects like SNAP, Unemployment, Medicare, Social Security, Defense and things like “DIF”, which funds FDIC and even more bizarre is the spending line item entitled “GSE Investments”. There is no debating whether those funds foe entitlements are inflationary or not, because they are. This is new money flooding the system that has been embedded with the inflationary monies from past decades of spending on these exact same entitlements. To compare QE2 of $600BIL to $3.82TRIL of US Treasury QE is like night and day. The US FED cannot compete with the US Treasury when it comes to QE … period! This is how it has been since the US FED was created as the US Treasury can outspend and out debt any other country or central bank on Earth, yet the US Treasury QE isn’t even a blip on the financial news radar. Even the most savvy investors and fund managers will drool all day over FOMC but not even glance once at a US Treasury Statement, in essence the financial report of the largest indebted sovereign corporation on the planet!

QE2 TRUMPED

What happens when the Debt Ceiling is reached without resolve for the US FED’s QE2? If the US Treasury cannot issue more debt then how can the US FED buy any to keep QE2 going?

We are here now on Monday, April 18th, with just $37BIL left to go before the Debt Ceiling is reached. This was dues to this large increase in debt on Friday, April 15th of $34.5BIL USD …

Then on Monday the US PUBLIC DEBT went up another $3.6BIL …

That brings us to here …

Certainly Ben Bernanke needs the US Treasury to keep issuing debt so he can buy it, otherwise what good will QE2 be in the end when interest rates shoot up due to a lack of US FED buying. The claim is that QE2 will end in June, but one more day like April 15th and QE2 could end this next week.

This is what the US Treasury has to draw from in its Federal Reserve Account and other accounts as of Monday, April 18th:

BUBBLE ADAPTATION

In America we have our housing bubble that took place when rates were running between 3.75% and 6% depending on the type of loan and when you took out the loan and your credit rating. In Australia the housing bubble is beginning to fade but that bubble took place with rates running from 6.2% to 9.3%. I am not sure then that rates have anything to do with “Bubblenomics”. Of course the Australian central bank, the RBA, have had some of the highest central bank rates globally for many years now even in the face of their own housing bubble deflation.

So as the Aussie housing bubble shows sign of deflation here is a link with the latest mortgage rates as of April 15th …
http://www.apimagazine.com.au/tools/rate-update

You will notice that the lowest rates are about double what the lowest rates are here in the USA. This is yet another example of how much better Americans have it that the Aussies. Even when I lived in Australia back in the 1970s gasoline was double in Australia compared to what us Yanks were paying. Would there have been a housing bubble in the USA with mortgage rates at 7% or 8% or 9%?

Another difference that helped the housing bubble in the USA take off was the lower standards for loans. During the bubble just about anyone with a pulse could have qualified and they did in droves. All anyone really had to do was be able to pay the monthly mortgage payment. Its like cars … Today when I open the Hilo Tribune and look at the car section of the newspaper I hardly ever see sticker prices any more, but I do see a lot of cars advertised by their monthly payments. Of course those ads are only as good as your credit rating, but the key is to get you in the door no matter what your credit rating turns out to be. The car dealer wants you in a car no matter your long term fiscal viability. It’s like SubPrime only CarPrime!

H1/2011 VALUE DESTRUCTION

Take a look at how much “value” was destroyed by the US Treasury through the issuance of marketable debt and net outlays for the first half of FY2011. Its mind boggling that this much “market cap value” can be destroyed so quickly yet some 99% of media and economic gurus do not even measure such metrics.

Notice that the above USD amounts are not billions but trillions … I only mention that because few of us are used to seeing US Treasury dollar numbers with all the zeros.

I have to ask … What will Ben Bernanke or any US FED governors ever say that will make a difference to the US Treasury’s destiny of total value destruction? The spending and debting the US Congress did back in the 1970’s and 1980’s did not stop even when the Fed Funds Rate went up to 20%, so will anything change with Congress or the US Treasury with the Fed Funds Rate at 0.50%? 0.75%? 1%? 2%? 3%? Will 44 million Americans sudden not need to eat? Will 70 million baby boomers quit retiring? Will old people quit needing medical care?

I see nearly some $2.2TRIL in net outlays (spending) and some $4TRIL USD in marketable debt issues for the first half of FY2011. Here is how fast it took the US Treasury to eliminate the entire gold holdings of GLD based on one half year of spending and debt.

OUTLAYS = 43 MINUTES
DEBT = 14.4 MINUTES

So it took the US Treasury a total of 43 minutes to spend the entire gold inventory of GLD. Then it took the US Treasury only 14 minutes to issue GLD’s entire inventory as debt.

What about Exxon, one of the Worlds largest corporations. What did the US Treasury do there?

OUTLAYS = 4.8 HOURS
DEBT = 2.6 HOURS

Okay, it took only 4.8 hours worth of outlays to totally destroy all of Exxon’s market cap and only 2.6 hours to destroy Exxon’s market cap through debt issues. Where is the value in such destruction?

Also notice the new median price for a US home is $165,000USD now. Naturally the US Treasury spending rate smokes the value of an American home in nano-seconds. How long does it take the average US citizen to pay off their mortgage? Maybe 30 years if they stay n the same home that long.

That is how adept the US Treasury is at destroying value in America. If you are wondering what it is that is causing gold and silver and oil and other commodity prices to rise then take a peek at the other side of the “value coin” and see what the US Treasury does every year. If “value” were traded on the COMEX like a futures trade then the US Treasury would be the JP Morgan shorting the hell out of value. While we citizens and the CEOs of most US corporations who produce a usable product the masses consume every day strive for long term value the US Treasury and the US Banks strive to short long term value by using every political and monetary tool at their disposal.

IT’S THE NEW BUDGET STUPID!

Aloha … Let’s go here to this chart of the CBO that estimates for the new Budget 2012 and I see that in 2009 these guys at the CBO show that the total Outlays/GDP is around 24.5%(very close to a 25% peak). See …

Now I go to the US Treasury Statement for FY2009 and I see the total net outlays is around $4.6TRIL USD. How do I get that number? I take this GRAND TOTAL OF ALL OUTLAYS including redemptions …

And then I subtract redemptions for FY2009 here …

So what is $11.9TRIL minus $7.3TRIL? It’s … hey $4.6TRIL … Okay!! So if I multiply $4.6TRIL by four(25%) I get this: $18.4TRIL!! Was that the US GDP for 2009? No, according to the World Bank the US GDP in 2009 was only $14.119TRIL not $18.TRIL. This means that the CBO chart outlay calcs are wrong. In fact if we use the US Treasury Statement as fact then the real Outlays/GDP is more like 33% not 24.5%; only off by 8.5%. Or was that error not an error and is really some sort of special CBO hedonics?

So the CBO wants me to believe this chart of theirs is accurate when it is stacked up against the actual numbers the US Treasury wants me to believe. Well, the numbers do not add up, because in 2009 the GDP was $14.119BIL according to the World Bank, so the CBO or the US Treasury are off by some $4TRIL USD of GDP Now I doubt that was a “rounding error” and I doubt the US Treasury makes $4TRIL errors in their outlay calcs. That leaves the CBO on the hook, which has been a known mouthpiece of financial and accounting fantasy for the Congress and the President since inception. In truth it was the CBO who insisted that the Iraq War would only cost $1.78BIL USD, because by their calcs the USA could recoup losses through the sales of crude oil. Once again the CBO was wrong … so wrong on the cost of the Iraq War. If you recall back then President George Baby Bush fired his own US Treasury Secretary, O’Neil for disputing the CBO Iraq War cost estimate publicly. Now we have Timothy Geithner who only disputes S&P sovereign debt rating downgrades publicly. He is smarter, that is if you seek full time employment in DC …

Now I want to observe this guy who is and has been a pretty powerful government economic adviser. Here he outlines his proposal to reduce the size of government. Let’s read this …

JOHN B TAYLOR
Government and Stanford economist
Under US Treasury Secretary for International Affairs 2001-2005

Sunday, April 3, 2011

A Credible Strategy to Reduce Government Spending Growth and Increase Economic Growth

http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/2011/04/credible-strategy-to-reduce...

• In tomorrow’s Wall Street Journal, Gary Becker, George Shultz and I present the economic case for a credible strategy to reduce the growth of federal government spending, bring the deficit down, and increase economic growth. We emphasize the words credible and strategy.

• The essential first step in the strategy is substantial progress in reducing discretionary spending in 2011. This will help establish credibility and show that government can actually take needed actions, not just promise to take them. Think game-changer.

• The second part of the strategy is a transparent longer term plan to get total spending (including entitlements) as a share of GDP down gradually to a level consistent with tax revenues generated by the current tax system. Credibility will be enhanced by showing that the needed spending share is close to shares seen in not-so-distant American history and that it is achieved gradually.

• It’s important for the government to explain to the American people why such a strategy will help increase economic growth and reduce unemployment. This task is made easier by the fact that it is consistent with basic economics in which expectations and incentives figure prominently.

• The two parts of such a strategy may be emerging from Washington this week in (1) some form of HR1 for 2011 and (2) the 2012 Budget Resolution to be put forth on Tuesday. Stay tuned.

Okay, I agree with the first paragraph, but the second paragraph which is the “essential first step” I disagree with as one man’s “discretionary” is another man’s “necessity”. I do not have any confidence in government to cut spending in a meaningful manner. Since I have been alive they have had 57 years to do it and they never have, so why now?

Hummmm … okay the third paragraph wants to bring spending down in line with tax revenues. WOW! Now that is an ambitious fantasy!!! Do these guys read US Treasury Statements? Let us just look at the US Treasury Statement for FY2010 to se what we are up against …

Well, paragraph four was written by someone who has never taught a man to fish! First of all the average American has no clue about basic economics and could not tell you what the difference is between a debit and a credit. In fact I am not so sure that most average Americans can even spell “economics”. Okay, now the guy gets very dangerous and mentions the word “expectations”. Now what is it that this guy thinks the average American expects from his government today after all the “cradle-to-grave” vote buying that every politician has promised since Columbus? The average American expects to be taken care of. Start cutting and find out. Now you can call me a pessimist or scold me for being negative, thank you very much! Instead just call me “skeptical”, not so much for the average American, because the average American actually has a budget and has to live within his means, but I am much more skeptical that the GANG of 535 and the many other politicians that proliferate the Nanny State will actually carry any of this spending cuts out in a “meaningful” way. I see that there will probably be many more crisis over the 10-12 years these cuts are to take place and if any of those crisis threatens the two party monopoly these guys will print money like there is no tomorrow to stay in power. They will go to any heights in the debt markets and they will go to War against any foe no matter the cost, but what they will not do is give up their power.

POLLS SAY

This is in part from Barry Riholtz …

"An April 6 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that 61% of people favor a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution, down from 71% in 1995. Support falls to 27% when people are told that this would require a 20% cut in entitlement programs."

"An April 4 YouGov poll found that an overwhelming majority of people favor large budget cuts. However, majorities also favor increased spending for education and medical research, and a strong plurality favor increased spending on clean energy technology."

"On March 9, the Harris poll found strong opposition to cutting Social Security or Medicare benefits to deal with the budgetary problems of those programs. People are also opposed to raising taxes to fund them."

"On March 2, a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found strong opposition to cutting spending for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, K-12 education, heating assistance for the poor, college student loans, Head Start, and unemployment insurance. There was majority support only for cutting nuclear power subsidies, aid to state and local governments, the EPA budget, and spending on transportation and infrastructure projects. The poll also found that 81% of people would support a surtax on millionaires to help reduce the budget deficit, and 68% would support eliminating the Bush tax cuts for those earning more than $250,000."

"On March 1, the Tarrance Group issued a poll which found that 63% of voters incorrectly believe that the federal government spends more on national defense and foreign aid than it does on Medicare and Social Security. Also, three-fifths of voters believe that the budget can be fixed just by eliminating waste, fraud and abuse."

It’s called having your cake and eating it too! It’s all so NIMBY!!

WHAT IS GDP ANYWAY?

The basis of all government sponsored economics is to get you to succumb to “hedonics”. If they can make you believe their numbers then they can publish any numbers they want and you would believe they were true. It’s very Orwellian. We who chose to QUESTION AUTHORITY all know that government data is suspect at best. Just last week I reported that the Commerce Dept reports Personal Savings based on debt default. In their eyes if you default on your credit cards then that is actually savings in the bank. Somehow if I walk away from $10,000 in Visa debt I saved $10,000. Did my savings account rise by $10,000? NO …

We all know the flim-flam of CPI. We are on our tenth version of CPI formulas. Not sure why we need that many versions. Still even the official CPI formula now does not count food or oil costs in their formula. If you have a pulse you know how much food and oil affects your family’s budget. The official reason for not counting food and oil is that these items are too volatile. In fact MIT has the BPP which measures prices of all online items and calculates current annual CPI not at 2%, like Bernanke wants you to believe, but at a monthly rate of 1%.

http://bpp.mit.edu/

I am going to look at the official calculations of GDP now. I will use the latest BEA news release for GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010. GDP was officially moved up to 3.1%, but it took the BEA three revisions of GDP data to get to 3.1%. They claim the reason for three revisions is better and more complete data came in late. They remind me of Fannie Mae and their financial reporting delays.

You can go to this link and read the official release yourself but I will hand pick some of the GDP data and calculations that I feel are erroneous. Many businessmen and investors base their decisions of government data so there is an inherent obligation for the government to be honest, but then again there is an inherent reason why governments run by political biases for re-election leads to falsifying the numbers.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2011/pdf/gdp4q10_3rd.pdf

This calculation here sticks out like a sore thumb …

Can anyone here see the fallacy? If you read my SOUND MONEY reports every week then you notice that the US Congress does a lot of spending and the Treasury issues a lot of debt. In order to cover the spending they do the US Treasury needs to collect taxes. However, as I have pointed out net tax revenues run about a 400% - 600% deficit. In order to paper over that deficit in tax revenues the US Treasury issues US DEBT. In actuality the BEA calculations for “government consumption expenditures and gross investment” should only count the portion that is actually paid for using tax revenues, otherwise when this calculation includes US DEBT it turns current GDP into future GDP if and only if all of the US DEBT is repaid. It’s like you adding your credit card spending to your wages on your 1040 tax form. If your wages for the year was $40,000 and you spent $6,000 using your credit cards during the year did that really boost your income to $46,000? Somehow with the BEA debt is income and therefore it counts as expenditure and a gross investment.

GDP counts government consumption expenditures so that means that if you get food stamps and unemployment benefits during the year GDP goes up because you take that “welfare”, which is derived partially from tax revenues and mostly from debt issues, then you spend it at the Safeway grocery store or on gasoline at the Shell station.

How can such GDP calculations even be remotely allowed? Just a back of the envelope calc says to me that if we have a $1.6TRIL deficit then $1,6TIL needs to be subtracted from the GDP calculations. The good news is that the official TOTAL GDP is up at $14.8TRIL, but if we subtract the $1.6TRIL deficit from that we get a real TOTAL GDP of $13.2TRIL, which is down not up.

So how much of these BEA GDP line items is money that Americans got from welfare?

Then again how much of those line items listed above is due to government workers spending? Can the BEA truly count government workers as a part of GDP? Their salaries and benefits are purely derived from tax revenues and debt issues. Debt issues create massive increases in GDP.

Here is the Net Change in US PUBLIC DEBT for FY 2010 …

Its $1.65TRIL USD which somehow is included in GDP via line items called “consumption”.

Here are the total FY2010 outlays for Government Employees and Government Employee Benefits …

Added together they account for some $240BIL. Then if we add military personnel to the equation we get even more government worker outlays counted by the BEA as GDP.

What would GDP look like if we removed all government expenditures like grants, loans, payroll and purchases (like Defense Vendors)? It would be as I say often, “The Fortune 500 would be the Fortune 5”.The BEA would have you believe that as the US DEBT increases so does GDP. It’s Orwellian to say the least …

It ended at $13.5TRIL almost the same as the BEA reported $14.8 GDP, only a $1.3TRIL difference. In fact according to the US Treasury for FY2010 US PUBLIC DEBT was 91.5% of total 2010 GDP. So as GDP grew by 3.1% US PUBLIC DEBT grew by 14%. That means that US PUBLIC DEBT had to increase 14% to create a 3.1% increase in GDP. Not only is the USD a debt derivative but so is US GDP. Debt corrupts everything in its path.

“Where there is no market economy, the best-intentioned provisions of constitutions and laws remain a dead letter.” – Ludwig Von Mises, .Human Action, 1933

“Because what happens is, as the economy suffers, tax revenues go down. But unlike businesses, where at least your variable costs go down, in government your variable costs go up: unemployment insurance, workmen's compensation, health care benefits, welfare, you name it.” – Meg Whitman, CEO EBay

“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.” - Alexis de Tocqueville

“Blessed are the young for they shall inherit the national debt.” - Herbert Hoover

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CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report

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CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


Good evening. Patrick here.

A well deserved day of rest, equities pausing to digest recent gains drifted listlessly higher for most of the session (S&P+0.38%). Outside of several dollar-driven bouts of volatility in precious metals, today was exceedingly blasé – a classic low volume tight range put-your-hands-in-your-pockets kind of day.

Lots of economic data to be released before the opening tomorrow:
• Personal Income Estimate 0.40% vs. 0.30% Prior
• Personal Spending Estimate 0.50% vs. 0.70% Prior
• PCE Prices Core Estimate 0.10% vs. 0.20% Prior
• Employment Cost Index Estimate 0.50% vs. 0.40% Prior
• Chicago PMI Estimate 68 vs. 70.6 Prior
• Michigan Sentiment Estimate 69.6 vs. 69.6 Prior

A couple earnings casualties Thursday: Akami (AKAM-14.79%) beat income estimates but was pounded after issuing cautious guidance going forward. Research in Motion (RIMM+1.62%) fell over -10% after hours, as lower-than-expected shipments of Blackberries cut into total revenue.

Not much to add to recent commentary. The low volume, grinding rally continues with equities modestly overbought but tracing out of clear pattern of higher lows and higher highs meaning Bulls are still in command.

The S&P is vacillating around the 1360 target we mentioned last week, and the 2009-2011 rally in the Q’s is less than a point from matching the 2002-2007 advance in half the time. Think of the entire sequence as an ABC rally where legs A and C will be equal between 60-60.5 in QQQ; when the amplitude of two swings approaches equality the probabilities of a counter trend reaction increase, so prepare accordingly.

Silver (SLV+0.21%) made a minor new high today, spot prices peaking near 49.5 this morning, before selling off hard midday. Calling tops in parabolic runs is a fool’s game, but one can assume the 1980 intraday high of 50.5 is a logical spot to look for formidable resistance.

It also stands to reason many of us will be leaning against that supposed ceiling. Therefore, if prices penetrate and hold 51 spot expect an outbreak of hysteria, rumors, and volatility to cloud the collective judgment of market participants.

Shorts will be up the creek without a paddle, emotional basket cases as silver shoots to all-time highs, no overhead supply to hold back prices in the short term. The tail end of parabolic advances often cover the most ground in the shortest amount of time, so speculators should take out upside insurance if they feel compelled to fade the prevailing trend.

Implied volatilities of SLV options have risen dramatically but are reasonably priced given the intraday movement and overnight gaps in silver. Although we prefer to generally be short premium, in fast moving markets being long gamma is a worthwhile tactical strategy if you are actively trading the intraday swings.

Have a great evening.

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