Bill Cara's Blog for Dec 23, 2010 [See post-close report]

Actually Bill, the equity markets are open all day in the U.S. ; it's the bond market that closes at 1 p.m.

I don't know why but I will wait longer before jumping in as we didn't clear overbought levels yet.

As for why? No POMO today?

I just looked at the INTC chart from 2001 till now (forget the 2000 anomaly). a string of lower highs and now at the top of trading range. Not impressed. It's probably OK if you are going for end of year effect.

yet Yen gaps up? Improved economic outlook for Japan's export market or $ playing different games with different currencies?

Actually a number of gaps. GBP down, NZD up... . Of course I have no clue what that means, except to note I don't recall seeing gaps like this before.

edit: 5min and hourly charts show continuation. Yen and GBP are both early morning moves. So people in the know moving currencies before important economic data comes out or just more of this insanity in currencies.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CURREN...

Corporate profits are up 27% y/y compared to up over 38% in Q2 - so some weakness in the last quarter.

http://fidweek.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fi...

jackblack,

what's not to like about the chart? Looks pretty good to me- monthly shows a nice long base/trading range- if it breaks out of that it could have a nice run. Weekly looks like an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Just interested in more detail on your thoughts. Good trading and happy holidays!

KC

jack- I still think the McAfee acquisition will in retrospect look prescient. Security is everything in cyberspace. It diversifies the company, and will add to earnings in ways we can't even imagine right now. JMO, of course.

BH- Is that a typo on the CSCO estimate?

Just my 2 cents on INTC....Daily chart...Needs to Peak back above red reaction line....

http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/4828/intce.png

The Macgillicuddy of New Zealand Shamblin?...

It might be the slow market, or maybe the 'special eggnog' for breakfast this morning, but what does it say about TA when the first thing you see in a chart is a lovely tartan pattern?!

jack- That's OK, man. You know, I bought/sold BAC several times the past few months. Whereas my wife bought around 12.50 and is still holding. She watched it drop to 11, of course. On the other hand, she'll probably still be holding when it hits 18.

Shares of AIB (AIB) fell 20% after the government won a request by the Irish High Court to approve a 3.7 billion euro ($5 billion) cash injection. The government, which already has a 19% stake in AIB, will now hold more than 92% of the bank.

AIB shares will be delisted from the main Irish exchange and now list on the Enterprise Securities Market, which will allow shareholders to maintain access to a public facility for those shares. Trading in AIB will also be canceled on London's main exchange. Read more about AIB.

How many ways can you say "NATIONALIZED?"

Bought 4 June 80 GOLD calls at 10.5; all I could afford at this time. This action will cause gold to go down so for those of you who are short gold you have me to thank. You're welcome in advance.
Earl

*(PO) FITCH CUTS RATING ON PORTUGAL TO A+ FROM AA-; OUTLOOK NEGATIVE

and the market doesn't bat an eyelid. Well, the currency market reacted a little more vigorously: http://www.finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD

MARKET VECTORS ETFs 2010 Year-end Distributions

Ex-Date: December 23, 2010 | Record Date: December 28, 2010 | Payable Date: December 30, 2010

We are pleased to provide the following information which summarizes the 2010 year-end dividends and capital gain distributions for the Market Vectors ETFs.
We strongly urge shareholders to consult with their tax advisers regarding the tax consequences of these dividends anddistributions. You should not make investment decisions based on this information.

Passive Foreign Investment Company (PFIC) IncomeSeveral Market Vectors ETFs may make investments in non-U.S. corporations classified as “passive foreign investmentcompanies.” Generally speaking, PFICs are non-U.S. corporations having 50% or more of their assets invested in cash or securities, or having 75% or more of their gross income originating from passive sources, including but not limited to interest,dividends and rents. In other words, these foreign companies primarily derive their revenue streams from investments
(rather than operations). Please refer to your Market Vectors ETF’s Statement of Additional Information (SAI) for further information on PFICs.

The following table contains information regarding the PFIC tax adjustment for each year-end dividend per share.IRS Circular 230 disclosure: Van Eck does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice. Any statement contained in thiscommunication concerning U.S. tax matters is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose ofavoiding penalties imposed on the relevant taxpayer. Shareholders or potential shareholders of the Market Vectors ETFsshould obtain their own independent tax advice based on their particular circumstances.

If you have any questions concerning this information or the Market Vectors ETFs in general, please call 1.888.MKT.VCTR between 9:00 a.m. and 5:30 p.m. EST, Monday through Friday.

LOL! A good one. Short squeeze? I'm glad you mentioned this. I was eyeing TEVA some time ago and forgot. I like the long term chart, looks just like the end of 2006 formation. I may want to pick it up on a sell off.

Edit: it's selling now!

Whatever happened to the oil hoarders and their tankers? That story died a quiet death...

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Thanks Vad! Finally a stock today with a bit of life in it!

EDIT: nailed it! Give me a night to post it. Along with ITMN which I've been pursuing daily, these tweaked indicators are an interesting tool.

Merry Christmas all! Drinkies time here :)

thinking the big boys are gunning for the $ 7.90 level... based on 5 yr. reads... imhao only...

The Hindenburg Omen returned around Dec 16th 2010, the second since August 2010. Here's one comment
I found interesting.

Jeff Cooper of Minyanville says: The Hindenburg Omens that arrived in August produced a lot of interest with the creator even being interviewed on CNBC. I suspect the current signal will get little if any play. That may be telling. No one will be listening to the Omen crying wolf this time around. There are few bears left in the woods as the market has climbed a Wonder Wall of Worry shrugging off potential issue after issue. I can’t help but wonder if we are arriving at critical mass.

There are major square outs and bearish indicators currently that were not present at the time of the August Hindenburg Omen. Monthly momentum indicators are overbought. They were not in August. Advisory sentiment is at historic highs. Recently I showed charts regarding a cluster of Fibonacci turning points due the first week of January.

It is possible to count five culminating waves up. The question we should be asking is whether a correction (should it arrive) will be a bullish pullback to walk off overbought sentiment and price action, or whether the current five-wave pattern completes the C leg of a bearish A B C pattern. An A leg up to April 2010, a B leg down into the summer, and a C leg up. If so, then the message of the tape is conspicuously bearish, indicating the potential for another crisis in 2011 accompanied by a pernicious decline.

It is interesting that the Hindenburg Omen will likely be given short-shrift this time around, but it is worth considering that the Omen has occurred before all crashes or panics in the last 25 years.

"t is worth considering that the Omen has occurred before all crashes or panics in the last 25 years."

More important question would be: how many Omens occurred not resulting in crashes.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&i=p26487674695&a=218284779&r=494

along the same thinking moreless, I have been using this chart for a few years now. Note the hs top in the dow gold ratio back in 2002 and what an incredible signal this was for years of gains.(the seventies had a nearly identical formation by the way)

Cheers

LOL, thanks Baz, I could use something... I've spent the past 5 years training 3 panel operators which means sitting on my azz so much. I've been looking at both of these since you mentioned them, for personal as well as financial reasons. Thanks for the feedback.
Best regards,
Earl

ea32da32,

What a sad story. This is the kind of thing we are just beginning to deal with where I live. First the layoffs in non-critical services (library), now cuts in police force, fire dept. is next on the list.

Our mayor is pushing for state reform to cut existing pensions and has suggested city bankruptcy as a last resort.

This line from the Prichard article also applies here... "And its benefits were sweetened over time by the state legislature, which did not pay for the added benefits."

I wonder just how many cities this could describe.

it happens everywhere.....the "new" 5b food plan for school kids, which will cost average district 20/25 cents a meal, will be funded to the tune of only a nickle or so in a few years by the feds. It is truly rediculous as each child's plate (1-5th graders) eating lunch (personally observed at parents/grandparents day, etc) in central texas has about a dozen pieces of cut/rounded/cleaned carrots on it almost every day and the entire table of kids probably consumes three pieces in total. GOVT MANDATES = WASTE

I decided today to pick up a couple more of February $78 puts at $2.51 and then start scaling into TWM, for if the market, by some miracle, stays flat for the next couple of months, all my puts will expire but ultrashorts will lose just a little of their value. So I also bought 500 shares of TWM at $12 and will keep scaling in if TWM keeps going down.

I have been following, and have commented about previously on this site, metallurgical coal miners for the past year or so, particularly Cline (CMK.TO), Grande Cache (GCE.TO) and Kaimu's Lysander (LYM.TSX Venture) and have been in and out of each profitably a number of times. I bought Cline and the others on dips over the past couple weeks. This afternoon there was a trading halt for CMK.TO and then a further jump on trading restart, for a very nice 22.55% on the day!

I have no idea why the trading halt and the price jump, but suspect a buyout. If anyone in the community has access to information on today's CMK.TO, I'd really appreciate knowing.

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Further to the above, I just picked up the press release (and am wrong about the buyout). In fact, US mining regulators approved Cline's recently acquired Colorado coal property for underground work start-up. Details can be found at the following reference:

http://tiny.cc/xf4ie

FD: moderate position and holding for the moment.

if you look at the breakdown of the hs in 1971 and compare, it is very stunning in cyclical/all terms imho

http://www.chartsrus.com/chart.php?image=http://ww...

ps: when I say years, I mean 6-7 yrs, for what it's worth that fib extention po for the dow was presented to a group of twenty or so like minded investors in may 2006 and ended up being a horseshoe away from the po.

Likewise with oil, the fib po from the old highs was a few bucks off and current resistence is at that first extention off the old highs.

These long term charts have legs imho, and as I learn to trust their forecasting ability I believe it may be a very big help.

Cheers, jmy honest opinion.

ps; just watch, it may take a while but that trendline from the 1994 low in oil will get tested, I mean it will attempt to get over it and meet resistence there. Whether it makes it or not is tbd.(to be determined)

Craig,

"BUT, in each state because we all live in a bunch of different states, check out if Governors, Legislators, Mayors, City Councilpersons and County Commissioners are cutting their wages."

Our mayor and the city counsel did so this year stating that since if they were going to ask for concessions from the police and fire unions they needed to set an example. The police union did agree to cuts, but the firemen did not. Their contract will be renegotiated about 6 months from now.

The state, on the other hand:

• The governor gave raises to all his staff
• Sttate union employees will get an automatic 5% increase in June 2011.
• The then acting governor got elected in Nov. after promising $millions more in gifts to cities including $8 million to ours.

He won in a very close race with the backing of Mayor Daley of Chicago (our real capitol).

In the commentary at the top of the page.

With all due respect, "we" don't "all live in a bunch of different states". Many of us (even Bill and Vad) live in provinces, for example New Brunswick and Saskatchewan. And others live in territories such as Nunavut and the Yukon. And, my gosh, a bunch live in countries such as Australia, Germany and Singapore. I am certainly not trying to push your buttons, but it's worth acknowledging that, for the majority of the people on the planet, the USA is a foreign country.

Jack - regarding Harry Dent; Contributions will become disributions... what an interesting artical. thanks much. I'll save these and look at them in between company. Have a great Christmas Holiday.
Earl

ALOHA!!

You're right it was a "falling knife" on low to lower volume over 17 trading days ... welcome to juniors! The reverse can happen in much less time.

Closing price on Dec 6 was $0.79. Closed at $0.85 on Dec 1.

Here take a look ...
LINK: http://tinyurl.com/3xsu3xn

I mean really, based on the HUGE earnings they have made in last 2 yrs averaging production cost of around $250 to $350 per an ounce of gold and selling between $1000 to $1430, shouldn’t their shares prices be way up to the moon??.

You lost me on this production stuff ... There is no production yet, only exploration. Once again ... welcome to juniors!

Here's something I'm doing over the brief break Analyst. I am taking this diagram:

http://alphascanner.com/content/images/marketstruc...

and marrying it up with the following charts. PMV.V, GIX.TO, RBY, NGD, GRR.V in order to determine where they are presently in their cycle.

Most of them are passing from the decline phase to the accumulation stage. Bill has already alerted us to his intentions. So I look at each chart through the criteria I am trying to put together as a coherent whole - Moving average support, vol indicative of buying, MACD and stochastics along with appreciation of RSI. PMV.V still doesn't meet this criteria and my bad for trying to catch the bottom the other day.

I'm hurting on SLW so the lesson is hitting home. Perhaps the most important phase to monitor and time for purchase is the 'mark up' phase, which is what I was lucky to catch when I bought PMV.V recently. Next time I'll try to make it less lucky and more intentional.

I also note relative weakness in gold and silver, but in the other three metals used to note 'risk on/risk off' - copper, palladium and platinum, strength remains significant especially week over week.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS...

Si02 was right. No using hanging onto these stocks for ever and ever, especially if they should decline to levels where they become buy and hold affairs, which PMV.V would have had I held it.