Bill Cara's Blog for Dec 31, 2010

Good morning.

NO POMO Injection Scheduled Today.

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NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes at this time.

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Kaimu Take Note Dept:

New ETF that corresponds to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the performance of the United States Government's Monetary and Fiscal Budget responsibility:
http://tinyurl.com/28hrdko

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"A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain." ~ Mark Twain

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Hope that all of you had a great 2010. Here's wishing you and yours a joyous and profitable 2011.

Bull Hunter.... thanks!

I asked Mr. Cara about this the other day, I think the numbers may be off due to the recent 5:1 split.

I keeps tabs on this female trader I know name Keristen. She always seem to be one step ahead. Saw this posted last night.
~~~~~~~~~
"Is Sugar going to be our leading indicator instead of copper? ......loved the chart on sugar as a tip-off- it’s old school, but maybe old school will work.

It took quite a swan dive today, and I think this chart speaks for itself.

http://tinyurl.com/2eqwr73

http://danielamerman.com/articles/Hiding.htm

Here is the 1st paragraph:
Hiding A Depression: How The US Government Does It

By Daniel R. Amerman, CFA
Overview

The real US unemployment rate is not 9.8% but between 25% and 30%. That is a depression level of job losses - so why doesn't it look like a depression for many people? How can so large of a statistical discrepancy exist, and how is it that holiday shopping malls are so crowded in a depression?

The true devastation is hidden by essentially placing the job losses inside three different "boxes": the official unemployment box, the true full unemployment box, and most importantly, the staggering and persistent private sector job loss box that has been temporarily covered over by a fantastic level of governmental deficit spending. The "recovering and out of the recession" cover story is only plausible when nobody connects the dots and adds all the boxes together.

We will add together the three boxes herein - using US government statistics for all three - and convincingly show that the US economy is in far worse condition than what is presented by the government or by the mainstream media. No, we have not emerged from "recession" and there will be no "double dip" - because the first "dip" was straight down to a depression-level economy in 2008/2009, and we haven't come back up.

Creating artificial "free money" on a massive scale that artificially boosts short-term employment is how you segment depression level unemployment into the separate boxes and hide what is really happening. It is this radical strategy that most distinguishes the current downturn from the 1970s and 1930s. The ultimate source of most of the current "free money" that hides the depression is the government risking the impoverishment of US savers and investors for potentially decades to come, with the worst of the damage concentrated on retirees and Boomers.

To have a chance of defending your hoped-for future lifestyle, there is simply no substitute for seeing the truth clearly. For it is only when we see through the lies with clarity that we can distinguish the false opportunity of manipulated markets from the real opportunities that can be found in unexpected places.

Thank You Bill and all contributors God Bless you and Happy New Year . Bob

JRCC, ARLP, MEE...

waiting for the close for possible entry. Otherwise got my hands full with friends tonight. Brotherly love to all and a more humane 2011 for this planet we call home.

cheers.

Hi Cheapy,
great post! Maybe baby bush picked bernaq to head the fed res. precicely because he was such a student of the 29 crash and would figure a way to ameliorate this market. Glad to see gold heading higher.

Kim 2325 -

Touchy, touchy! Try using quotation marks correctly (both opening and closing) so we know what words you are ascribing to the respected trader and what to yourself. Squiggles aren't approved by the Chicago Style Manual!

As for the interesting chart, so what? All charts are 'interesting'. As I indicated, futures charts are demonstrably unsteady (orange juice, QED), and you can use different time frames to show different inclinations. I can't imagine who would suggest sugar as a leading indicator except as a joke.

So, if I were going to put words in your mouth, I would use sweeter ones. Can we therefore just get on with the day. Cheers!

I noticed you do not post charts supporting trade ideas so when you call someone's chart a joke [ I can't imagine who would suggest sugar as a leading indicator except as a joke.] I just have to laugh on my end.

I will give you the last word since it appears from your past posts you have a ego the size of your portfolio.

"I reply as an old guy with a lifetime of practical and professional experience, a postgraduate degree, a stockbroker's training, various technical training, a decent portfolio and a reasonably happy life." [#57350]

that gap up on low volume looks good to me. MACD and Stochastics have turned positive and pulling themselves off the bottom. Aussie exchange buying kicking in.

http://tinyurl.com/36hcdza

Hi Kim,
I'd like to see that. Ok, your put/call ratio hitting close to 1? I believe that's what your refering to. well, that's great, hope it plays out and continues higher.

it's raining here and I'm trying to paint some shelves - not working out for me too good. but I have my computer set up in the garage - that's about the only thing working out this week - too much rain here in Houston.

regards,
Earl

"Welcome to the Titanic"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/823364...

ea32da32... one last chart [or a joke chart to some ;-) ]before I head out. I been keeping an eye on this one too.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPCE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77817235252&a=217542525

Wish you the best trading in 2011 Earl.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=METALS...

pretty bullish action for a sleepy end of year holiday week.

Why? Three days ago I recall thinking if the stock price dropped back under 20.20 I would take a stab at it. Three days ago, of course, I also recall putting myself in the shoes of buyers and thinking it would hit 21. So 20.17 it is for an opener.

I was just about to ask about UUP - I'm trying to sell some Feb 24 puts but I set my price possably too high to fill today just so I could watch it. I also have VIX calls tic toc, tic toc... putting me to sleep watching nothing happen.

what's your take on UUP - are you keying off Japan?

regards,
Earl

Kim,
I totally get that chart - thanks. I've got to learn how to do those, maybe I can work on that tonight. I've got an account with stockcharts.
Earl

Lots of talk in the news today about China's yuan increasing in value. Precious metals are up today also. Is that an expected correlation or coincidence? Seems like that would make gold and other materials less expensive in China, making them easier to buy. Many people seem to expect the yuan to increase in value over the next 10 years. Is that another reason to be long-term bullish on gold?

Thanks,
Brent

never heard that one brent. Bill's action plan on PM's has been strengthening Euro, implying weaker dollar and thus stronger commodity prices (well, I think that's the gist of it). And Euro is up strong this week:

http://www.finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&t...

A friend just sent me this.

“The New Year and its celebration is like a theatre break we leave for the bar to get a glass of wine or proseco return to our seat and the show continues!”

Thanks everyone for most instructive contributions this year, which are ramping up in acuity.

This must be what WW2 was like for our fathers and mothers, a massive campaign against a diabolical enemy, everyone's lives, livelihoods, and futures at stake. Most were foot soldiers sent into harms way, with many lives lost. We too are that vulnerable.

This blog is a warroom lifeline, teaching, alerting, and yes opinionating. (Todd Harrison calls it the War on Capitalism). There is little room for ego's. We are all mere footsoldiers doing our best to survive while contributing to the cause. All contributors too valuable to lose even one.

There are too many great characters, pundits, and writers who share here to begin naming you, but thank you all.

And then there are those who build info systems: One example: Our Northern Otoko (currently languishing in the sun somewhere half way around the world) contributed this earlier this fall.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AuGu9ZAmy...

Todd Harrison closes off thus:
"We sometimes say that if you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem. That’s not some glib off-the-cuff quip, it’s awareness that will shape the present and pave a path for future generations.

We have an opportunity to affect our outcome, teach our children, and leave the world a better place than we found it. It won’t be easy, but anything worth having rarely is.

Fare ye well in 2011 and beyond. And from our family to yours, may peace be with you!"

My 2011 predictions:
My portfolio grows by 25%, I don't know how yet, but it will be with your help. I will take on risk and win because I will find profitable ideas here and elsewhere, and in the past 3 years I have learned something about controlling emotions, filtering noise, digesting information, understanding human (and market) psychology, and staying alert to opportunities no matter what direction the market is moving in.

Here's a link to Doug Kass's 15 surprises for 2011. His discussion about making predictions is instructive, he reports his track record over the past 5 years, and then he flails away with the best of them. It's a fun, instructive read. (By his own admission, signifying nothing)
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/article...

I look forward to another year in the campaign with you all in 2011. Have a great New Year's. I plan to.

LOL, I didn't get that far reading it. I just saw it as someone else confirming what I've been thinking and saying the past couple years about the government and fed essentially papering over a depression.

I'll have to read on to find out if he thinks like I do that this papering over only guarantees a much worse collapse and depression when the bubble finally can no longer be sustained.

Hi MoKat,
I'm looking at PUDA and have been for a couple days. I missed my chance tuesday but that's ok. maybe we'll have a pullback and I can sell some puts or something.
best regards,
Earl

The amazing thing about WTE is the # of containers that they now move as well. 20 years ago it was coal only. I remember the IPO went from $10 to $5 in short order stressing the subscribers because there were two installment payments, and there was no value by the time the 2nd payment came due. Years later, all this income and cap gain later, what a great investment it has been. (no position)

Another coal stock pcy.to might gain more attention since it was just recently permitted.

(a) Gap up Monday.
(b) J6P, who has been eyeing index creep while waiting patiently for a pullback, throws New Year's resolutions to the wind and buys the total market fund.
(c) New investors are well rewarded for a few weeks.
(d) The sound of shorts screaming heralds the first protracted move down. Probably just prior to the Steelers winning Super Bowl XLV.
(e) Dip buyers swarm in, as bull traps snap one after another.
(f) The indexes show some life the last 2 weeks of April. This encourages the 'Sell in May' crowd to attempt back-to-back victories. Naturally, bad move.
(g) A sprint to SPX 1350 in record time, probably around June.
(h) Shorts (with short memories) manage to keep things afloat until Labor Day.
(i) A tight summer trading range then breaks...to the upside.
(j) SPX 1400, currently unimaginable to most of us, hits the headlines in the Fall, along with 10-year bond yields near 5%.
(k) All's well that then ends badly >>> SPX closes the year at 1350, in time for pundits to call it 'another great year!' We did, after all, close up +7%.

Just a quick question to traders in this blog since few expecting POG and Silver to retreat a little during the first one or two weeks of Jan/2011 before charging up again to higher level probably 1450 for POG and 35 for Silver in the next 4 wks or so. Any idea from those TA traders here, thanks in advance and happy new year to you Bill, kaimu, Les, Patrick, … and to all of you in this community.

I'm not pumping this stock - FD I own 2000 shares and have been adding on dips. Personally I like the story long term and plan to try to make a visit to the place the next time we visit the inlaws, but if anyone out there thinks it's a bad story please speak up.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/244229-active-powe...

Westcoaster -

You mention Prophecy Resource (PCY.TSX Venture) which is conducting a pre-fesibility study on a thermal coal property, Ulaan Ovoo, in northern Mongolia. I did some research on this mine about 2-3 weeks ago for a friend who had bought PCY on a tip, but didn't know anything about the company. I talked to a contact who has regularly been in Mongolia over the past decade. He works for a large mining concern that also has coal holdings, but in the south of Mongolia.

Ulaan Ovoo is an existing thermal coal deposit previously worked when Mongolia was tightly associated with, but not formally part of, the Sovietski Soyuz (USSR). Coal had to be trucked to a Trans-Siberian Railyway railhead, then transported primarily to Irkutsk. Given sufficient soft coal resources in the Irkutsk oblast, and when Mongolian realities changes post-glasnost, the mine was decommissioned. There are defined and inferred resources at Ulaan Ovoo, but the question is whether it is economical to mine/transport, and who will buy it. There are much larger deposits, including met coal, being mined and developed in southern Mongolia. These lie on Mongolia's primary north-south infrastructural (and existing railway) axis being developed to move raw materials to Chinese industry, for example by Rio Tinto, Ivanhoe, and others.

Still, geopolitics are complex. While affiliated with the USSR during its existence, and having stood with the Russians during Sino-Russian border wars, the Mongolians nevertheless have historic ties with China that reach back into the mists of time, and they have learned to accommodate both neighbours. Today, Mongolia seeks to compete in open markets and it is certain that their minerals will be used to maximum economic effect. My contact also warned of fickle environmental regulations as the Mongolian Government seeks to develop sensible legislation and regulation for its mainly pastoral heartlands. So, PCY.V is worth monitoring, but there are some economic and political factors at play. I can let you know if I turn up other information, data, or even charts, if you are interested.

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And here is a video from Northern Miner that features PCY and includes on-site video and maps: http://tiny.cc/8xtt6

Best wishes for good health and happiness in 2011!

FD: no positions Prophecy, Ivanhoe or RioT

Hi Teamon,
I've communicated with this individual that first mentioned it to me. He's been in this since 60 cents - sold today but plans to get back in believing the market will correct and he'll be able to get it cheaper in a couple weeks. Who knows- I added some yesterday and will if it corrects down a bit more but I like the fact this managment team seeks patents on everything they come up with. that's good CYA.
regards,
Earl

Shareholders of Amazon Mining and Holding Plc (CVE:AMZ on Google) have the makings of a fine New Year's bash with a 12.86% rise just today, overall rise from $2.30 to $6.32 since October 12, 2010 and a rising Cdn $ as well.

A US hat tip to the Canadians, may you have a great 2011.
FD: No position in AMZ just came upon it while seeking Amazon Dot Com AMZN.

Happy New Year to All from South Eastern Pennsylvania, USSA.
J

kim/shamblin- We get a few of these every year, right? Keep it up and you'll be buying drinks for each other in no time, no sarcasm intended. This community is no different from any other. Disagreements and misunderstandings happen. It's all good.

analyst65- I don't know. It might be market makers squaring accounts at the last minute. They may have received bids to be placed at EOD. It doesn't surprise me to see volatility in the last 15 minutes of the last trading day of the year. Prices have reversed/recovered (depending on one's POV) in extended hours, so I don't know that I would read too much into it.

Following up on my earlier post, one of the above looks interesting. Premier Goldmines (PG.TO) recently took an ownership stake in Ashburton Ventures (ABR.V), up 17% today. The company holds a variety of properties located throughout North America, including its flagship Deep Creek property in Nevada. The Deep Creek property consists of nearly 2,000 acres of claims located 56km northeast of the Newmont-owned Midas mine.

Chart: http://tinyurl.com/2662zwd

Hi Dave M -

I have both St. Eugene and Seafield on my watch list of speculative stocks, and PG, but not Ashburton or Dynasty. No present position in any of these and haven't traded them previously. We talked about SEM/CRJ earlier in the week and I hope that was as interesting for you as it was for me. I'm willing to do some digging on ABR, SFF and DYG and share findings if you are interested to continue developing early action profiles for juniors. Let me know. It's all interesting. Sometimes juniors have checkered pasts, were extinguished, then resurrected themselves like zombies! For e.g., Dynasty once traded at $25! I think that was in '95.

Hope you are able to enjoy a couple Schooner pops tonight. Best wishes for a healthy, happy and profitable 2011!

http://aworldoftweets.frogdesign.com/

Holy moly, Bull..... is this guy for real??

I still hang my hat in NYC. i have family who moved out of NYC to Dallas.

People shouldnt look for "Hot" real estate now a days. Dallas is great because lower cost of living vs incomes.

You can buy a new construction home, full brick, for $150-250k. You cannot even get a coop @ 300 sq feet, that is newer than 40 yrs old in manhattan for $200k.

i could prob move tomorrow and make similar income in Dallas. What holds me here are friends and family. I can't speak for all cities, but Dallas is a good financial decision, depending on your occupation or business experience.

NYC will always be my home though, no matter where my journey may take me.

In the end, home is where your loved ones are.

I enjoy listening to Howard, but he really did miss the call on retailing this season. He's more restrained this time around. Luckily I didn't trade based on his opinions!

The thing he missed was the effects of that 2-year 1.3 trillion annual spend.

I maintain that the top 10% of income earners in America are back in the saddle again, and spending. FIRE, healthcare, education, technology, and government workers and retirees - happy campers all. They're buying overpriced jewelry at Tiffany's, expensive oversized cargo pants at Abercrombie, things they don't need from Bed Bath & Beyond, etc. That's what equity prices are telling me, anyway, in the lead up to this holiday season.

A big chunk of the lower middle class has vanished into the land of unemployment and SNAP, and a good sized chunk of the middle class (now less one breadwinner) is now lower middle class. These folks lost homes due to foreclosure, exhausted savings, 401k plans, and so on trying to hang on to the status quo ante. They may have shopped at Abercrombie at one time, but no longer do. If they're working, they are now working at ANF, BBY, or TIF for $12/hour selling things to the top 10%, but shopping at Wal-Mart.

So how are retailers doing well? During 2009, the high end retailers closed the stores that had "too many" former middle class shoppers. Adjustments were made. And now since then, the top 10% are back shopping, same-store sales vs 2009 are great. Survivor bias makes sure of that. Plus, retailers trimmed other fat, and with unemployment and vacancies high, faced no wage or rent pressures on the cost side.

But most importantly, the federal government is borrowing and spending 10% of GDP to keep the show going. This keeps the Wal-mart customers afloat (and its stock price flat) in spite of the massive number of job losses. This will continue to work just fine as long as investors keep buying 20 year treasuries and accepting a 4% return.

But where is growth coming from? SBUX with a PE of 25 needs growth to keep its price afloat. We're still spending that 10% of GDP, increasing our debt load every year. Once the top 10% are spending like business is back to normal, what will provide growth? I claim we may be back to that point right now. I think we might have reached maximum saturation of good news from the retail recovery. I'm watching equity prices in various retailers right now to see if this is the case. SBUX and JWN both may be showing a double top on declining volume, but that end of the year period confuses things a bit. I want to watch how they act in the first week of January to see if there is smart money distribution into "the january effect."

XLY:SPY is one of my tells. XLY's outperformance peaked Dec 6th.

Nice gold article, Les. Something occurs to me regarding one of the last statements he made:

"Today’s situation is singularly dire, but it won’t last. Gold will never outperform stocks and bonds over the long run, because it does not grow or produce a cash flow."

This reveals that an assumption underpinning the stock and bond markets is growth - perpetual, structural growth that comes directly from an ever-increasing energy input to society. But nobody commonly draws the linkage between increasing energy inputs and growth. What happens when the growth in energy input flattens out - as in "peak oil's undulating plateau"? Supposedly that's where we are now, the undulating plateau.

Isn't it interesting that the US economy is growing at 2% per year, and in order to get that "growth" we're borrowing 10% of GDP from the future, each year? Isn't it possible that we've been living in a zero-growth world for the past five years, but haven't noticed because the massive increase in debt has masked its onset?

Just imagine what happens when people figure out that growth is not a law of physics, or a birthright, but rather simply an artifact of ever-growing energy inputs from a time now past. Imagine what P/E ratios will be like then, once folks realize that no-growth is now the new normal?

If and when zero growth becomes an accepted reality, what happens to the price of gold at THAT point? In that circumstance, the average company will stay the same, some will grow, and others will shrink. In that environment, PE ratios will probably shrink dramatically, and a bunch of substandard companies with debt will eventually default.

A rising tide of energy inputs lifts all boats. Once the tide stops rising, what then?

Happy New Year!!

Fed buying spree to open 2011

http://tinyurl.com/2wpacf6

LYM.V could be a big bagger or a widow maker in worst case scenario. The politics of Ukrainian business are ugly:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,...

That charming former Prime Minister is now up on criminal charges:

http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-6304...

Bottom line is that Ukraine is a) broke, b) has been forced to pay for dirty dealings in gas which is costing it a fortune and c) draining precious gas reserves. LYM could make out big selling local energy reserves. BUT...

Thanks for the link. I enjoy the blog.

Happy New Year to everyone & may the charts of all your longs begin in the lower left & end in the upper right.

“When business in the United States underwent a mild contraction in 1927, the Federal Reserve created more paper reserves in the hope of forestalling any possible bank reserve shortage. More disastrous, however, was the Federal Reserve’s attempt to assist Great Britain who had been losing gold to us because the Bank of England refused to allow interest rates to rise when market forces dictated (it was politically unpalatable). The reasoning of the authorities involved was as follows: if the Federal Reserve pumped excessive paper reserves into American banks, interest rates in the United States would fall to a level comparable with those in Great Britain; this would act to stop Britain’s gold loss and avoid the political embarrassment of having to raise interest rates. The “Fed” succeeded; it stopped the gold loss, but it nearly destroyed the economies of the world, in the process. The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market, triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, Federal Reserve officials attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally succeeded in braking the boom. But it was too late: by 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business confidence. As a result, the American economy collapsed. Great Britain fared even worse, and rather than absorb the full consequences of her previous folly, she abandoned the gold standard completely in 1931, tearing asunder what remained of the fabric of confidence and inducing a world-wide series of bank failures. The world economies plunged into the Great Depression of the 1930′s.”

source; http://www.constitution.org/mon/greenspan_gold.htm

It seems like deja vu to me. Do we get a top in the sm here and a failed usb rally/rush to safety? A rush to gold taking it to 1500 quickly?

per attached chart.

http://bit.ly/f8KFbS

ALOHA!!

I would agree that the Ukraine is not the most optimal place on planet Earth in terms of politics, but then again there are so many countries now who are as risky or more where major mining and oil & gas companies are invested. Yes, we can witness what Chavez did to Exxon as an extreme example.

First off let me say that LYM is not just a Ukraine coal company. They also have copper and gold plays in Canada, the Quesnel Trough, which is a JV with AMARC(AHR:TSXV), a Hunter Dickinson incubator at their Pinchi property.

THE OTHER ENERGY
Yes, there is more than just coal at LYM ...

One aspect of their energy focus is ELKO ENERGY, a private company oil&gas company, which Lysander owns 35% of this private company bought from XTRACT ENERGY(UK) in trade for LYM shares, no cash.
LINK: http://www.lysanderminerals.com/s/NewsReleases.asp...

To show you how this all "connects up" to the PEOPLE TREE here is part of that news release that caught my eye back on April 27, 2009.

Upon successful completion of both the above transactions, Xtract will own approximately 43.7% of the issued capital of Lysander, rising to approximately 52.2% on a fully diluted basis. Under the terms of the agreement with Lysander, Xtract will have the right to appoint a director to the board of Lysander. It is expected that Andy Morrison, CEO of Xtract and a director of Elko, will join the board of Lysander and will be available for oversight of the Elko interest. John Newton and John Conlon, directors of Lysander, are directors of Xtract.

So not only do we have WESTERN COAL management onboard but we have a huge management team from XTRACT ENERGY(XTR:AIM)and ELKO ENERGY with direct and extensive experience with governments in countries such as Turkey, Morrocco, Kyrgyz Republic, Zambia, South Africa and the Middle East. Most of management is from such big oil companies as Shell Oil and British Gas.

Next if you go to the ELKO website you will see that ELKO has a JV with NORECO(Norwegian Energy Company), which owns 47% of the DENMARK NORTH SEA project in combination with the Danish North Sea Fund(a government entity), which owns 20% while ELKO retains 33% of the JV. The first hole on the project will be drilled in 2011.

Here is an overview of the ELKO assets that LYM has a 35% interest in. This is something you cannot buy at any stock exchange in the World, as its a private oil & gas company you can only buy via LYM shares. Make note of the oil & gas resources that LYM has a diluted 35% in(3.56bcf gas/936mb NSC).

Elko Energy’s resources

Denmark
The Danish assets are located on license 02/05 on the offshore continental shelf. The assets have been independently evaluated by TRACS International in June 2010. TRACS report that the Danish acreage contains a substantial number of high risk leads which could be charged with either oil or gas. The full TRACS report can be found in the news section of this website.

Elko announced on 31st May 2010, an agreement with the Norwegian Energy Company ASA (Noreco) to farm in to the 02/05 license with a 47% working interest; Elko retaining 33%. This transaction is subject to closing conditions and regulatory approvals typical of transactions of this nature. Upon completion of the farm-in, the total net attributable prospective resources to Elko reported in the CPR, become 3,557 billion cubic feet under a gas scenario, 936 million barrels under an oil scenario.

Elko announced on 20th September 2010 that the 02/05 license Group, which comprises Norwegian Energy Company ('Noreco'), Danish North Sea Fund ('DNS') and Elko had submitted an application for an adjoining area immediately to the west of the 02/05 license area. The application is made in the same working interest percentages as in the 02/05 license, namely Noreco 47% and operator, DNSF 20%, Elko 33%. Further updates regarding this application will be provided as appropriate.

The Netherlands
Elko announced on 20th September 2010 that Elko Energy B.V. and Elko Exploration B.V. had entered into an agreement to sell their interests in Blocks P1 and P2 offshore the Netherlands to Chevron Exploration and Production Netherlands B.V. ('Chevron'). Elko will receive an overriding royalty up to 5% of the sales value from Chevron equity gas delivered into the Dutch National Transmission System and Chevron equity condensate delivered onshore. This transaction and transfer of operatorship was completed on 9th December 2010. Chevron anticipates drilling the first well on the acreage in 2011.

Blocks P1 and P2 are located on the offshore continental shelf. The assets have been independently evaluated by TRACS International in June 2010. TRACS report that the Dutch acreage contains a substantial number of proven discoveries and undrilled exploration prospects. The full TRACS report can be found in the news section of this website.

So LYM will be a "partner" in these two North Sea Oil projects with oil and gas production and royalties. When you own LYM shares you own ENERGY in coal and oil&gas with an added "freebie" of Canadian copper-gold properties thrown in.

I seriously doubt that the markets have any of the oil & gas play priced in and I doubt any of the copper-gold plays are priced in either. I think that will change in 2011-12 as the oil & gas production and drilling comes online. Right now the exclusive focus is on coal ... Ukrainian coal. I would be a fool to just buy some podunk junior who had dimwitted management rolling the dice in a Ukrainian "pump and dump" ... That is far from what LYM is!

http://tinyurl.com/246hedn

'The city was chosen Friday to host the next America's Cup in 2013, heralding a potential renaissance in competitive sailing and a boon of more than $1 billion to the local economy.

'The city beat out Newport, R.I., and Italy to host sailing's premier regatta, an international sporting event whose projected economic benefit is eclipsed only by the Olympics and soccer's World Cup.

'San Francisco had been the early front-runner to host the 34th Cup after billionaire Oracle CEO Larry Ellison's team captured the trophy in February off the coast of Valencia, Spain. The team, Oracle Racing, is sponsored by San Francisco's Golden Gate Yacht Club, and the winning syndicate selects where it will defend the Cup.

'Part of the attraction for race organizers is San Francisco's unique position to grow the sport of sailing.

'Rather than holding the races miles offshore, which was the case in Valencia, San Francisco Bay offers a natural amphitheater. Spectators in high-rises, along Crissy Field, on Angel Island and in the Marin Headlands will be able to view the action.'

NYUGrad (and Davefairtex), I also do not understand perfectly why, but the retailers are the companies that together with Gold/Silver have been performing very well.
Today just for my information I prepared a table with the performances of several ETFs in the last 3 years. You can see the results here: http://xrl.us/bidg9i
The change calculated in the file includes the dividends of the ETFs, so that we can compare everything with gold and silver not giving any dividend.
Can you see it? Apart from Gold and silver the only impressive result is XRT!!!
And then the emerging markets small caps. Is the trend going on in 2011?
Honestly I'd say yes, considering that the conditions are not changing a lot for now.
The retailers can still get good yields from the cost cuts, and the small caps of emerging markets can still grow a lot I suppose.
On the opposite side, I see that my Italy (yes, I'm Italian) is not loved at all. I understand perfectly, now that investors cannot sell our currency, they simply trash our companies (with a reason). Only the alternative energies were worse than Italy!

Lelik,
That is an interesting chart the performance of XRT surprised me, thanks for the post. I quickly checked GDXJ which only started November 13, 2009 @$25.43 closed @$39.89 December 31, 2010 +56.86%
J

4ever are you an Austin bod? My loved ones are all over the planet and understand where ever I go there I am.

I was told by a mining executive today that coal has an odd tendency to catch fire when it comes in contact with water. As in the holds of ships, floods, and certainly underground.

loannetter- So you're looking to relocate? The Bay Area and Vancouver have much in common (as you know). The only problem I have with SF is its inability (or its unwillingess) to clean things up. A mayor/city council with vision could turn Market/Van Ness into the Avenue des Champs-Élysées, and the Golden Gate into Stanley Park.

Lelik - great spreadsheet!

If Dr.Cosa were still here, he'd point out how badly GDX has underperformed the metal, contrary to all the hype from the goldbug newsletter writers.

I also was interested to find out why XRT outperforms. I didn't do any of the heavy lifting - to do it properly, we'd have to look at individual companies, check profitability, and see if it is improved vs. 2007. One theory might be the survivors of the crash are in much better shape than they were in the years prior - less competition (BBY no longer has Circuit City to worry about, for instance), and closing underperforming stores now has fewer stores serving (presumably) the same number of customers.

To paraphrase the NCIS mantra, I don't believe in coincidences.

http://tinyurl.com/33me6kb

NUYGrad,

He's stating what is obvious in my city and has been for at least a decade.

BUT... It can't be said too often if we are going to adjust to it.

Our city is just beginning to deal with the effects, but not with what is to come.

We already have lost huge sales and real estate tax income — squeezing home owners to pick up slack. (Talked with a friend's son form Huntsville, AL this weekend where reale3state tax is 10% of Illinois on a comp home.)

Major sections of shopping malls are going the way of former downtown stores — vacancies galore!

Visited an L.L. Bean (Barrington, IL) the day after Thanksgiving — more clerks than customers.

As he pointed out we are now a two class society.

navid & 2nd -- Yes it was a good interview. He makes a number of good points. As you know, Vad recently developed his online Taoist Trader course and so I put the Tao Te Ching on my reading list. I also decided that a re-reading of Sun Tzu's Art of War was in order. Check out Chap 11 (The Nine Kinds of Terrain) if you have a chance...

"Deploy your troops and plan out your strategies in such a way that the enemy cannot fathom your movements." That and similar remarks distinguish Group-3 think from Group-2 think.

That H&S pattern failure in July 2009 was incredibly important as it turned out and as a little pitchfork work shows the channel it established lasted until May 2010...

http://www.screencast.com/t/FM4RZUj5M

Vad...Thanks for all the trade screen-captures you've posted. They've helped tremendously. Keep 'em coming man...I'm a slow learner, but I'm getting there.

Hi Shamblin - check your email. I can't get Schooner on the West Coast but indulged in a few Tuborgs instead. Will be visiting Maritimes in August so I'll have a few then, and maybe even a Moosehead or two.

Navid; Right On! thanks for the link.

What a premium on PSLV! The fund must be the only game in town for non Comex tainted silver, judging by the premium.

Monex Live Prices is quoting a one ounce Silver Eagle at $33.36 vs spot at $30.90, a premium of 7.9%
Gold Eagles are selling at a premium of 3.9% at $1476.90

FUND PRICE PREMIUM TO NAV

PHYS $ 12.35 +2.25%

PSLV $ 14.07 +16.29%

CEF $ 20.73 +9.7%

GTU $ 54.35 +3.2%

http://tinyurl.com/27xx29r

I just can't help believing
When she slips her hand in my hand
And it feels so small and helpless
As my fingers fold around it like a glove

I just can't help believing
When she's whispering her magic
And her tears are shining honey sweet with love
This time the girl is gonna stay
This time the girl is gonna stay
For more than just a day

Here's a strategy that involves buying the SPX at the close of the last trading day each month, and selling at the close of the first trading day of the following month.

http://tinyurl.com/27r2p88

..a very simplistic form of market-timing has worked for the past 11 years. It involves owning the Standard & Poor's 500 stocks, but only for the first day of every month.

'An S&P report recently found that someone who invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 on Dec. 31, 1999, and left the money there until Dec. 1, 2010, would have just $8,209. An investor who was in the market only on the first day of every month over the same time -- for example, buying at the close on Dec. 31 and selling at the close of the first trading day in January -- would have $13,816.

'That's nearly 70 percent more than buying and holding the whole time. S&P didn't include reinvesting dividends in either scenario because of the complications of figuring out which companies paid dividends on the first trading day of the month for 11 years. But even if you include all possible dividends for the buy-and-holders, the first-day trade strategy came out 33 percentage points ahead.

'The strategy appears to work because of a market quirk. Money tends to go into stocks of the first day of the month as institutional investors reopen their books for a new reporting period. It's also the day when money tends to go into 401(k) or other retirement accounts.'

'"It's a quirk that works," says Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at Standard & Poor's. "It's hard to argue with someone who made well over 30 percent compared to someone who's down almost 20 percent."'

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110103.htm

'The Strategic Growth Fund finished the year with a slight loss of 3.62%. The loss resulted from our defense against an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields condition coupled with a runup in risk assets that was still uncorrected as the year came to a close. While the decline was minor from a long-term perspective, it felt excruciating in the final weeks of 2010, as stocks characterized by low-quality, low yield and high risk persistently outperformed those ranked higher in quality, yield and stability. The result was a series of small but relentless day-to-day pullbacks in the Fund, while the major indices registered a series of marginal new highs for the year.

'We enter 2011 at a point where investors have pushed risk assets to a speculative extreme, on the belief that the Fed has provided a "backstop" against losses. While there's no assurance that we won't see a further extension of this over the short-term, we've found more often than not that speculative setups in the financial markets are followed by a striking degree of subsequent resolution in the opposite direction.'

One take-away from Hussman's comments:

'On the basis of the relative standing between indices, one would expect small cap stocks to underperform the S&P 500 by roughly 8% annually over the coming 4-year period. On this expectation, we're in pleasant company with Jeremy Grantham at GMO, who also expects large-cap, high quality to strongly outperform small-cap and low quality over the next several years.'

I read somewhere on the internet ethos, "if you owe the bank $10M the bank owns you. If you owe the bank $10B, you own the bank"

I wonder if this is the case with U.S and China. At this point, with the amount of debt the U.S owes to China, its pretty much must be understood it will never be paid back right?

nothing new there analyst - it's good to see this blog keeping abreast of the same scenario possibilities as John Ing - but it is impressive to see it given air on financial television. Actually being upfront about America's debt problems - who let that 800lb gorilla enter the room as a topic of discussion! Well done BNN.

Buy and hold these small explorers. Yes I think I get it from Bill and others like John Ing that holding these to fruition could be easier than jumping in and out. We'll see what happens when the next top is put in on silver. As PMV.V points out, it wants to be a mid-tier producer in 5 years. Well given the way the price of gold is going its going to make it and maybe a little quicker than anticipated.

Ditto LYM.V as Kaimu pointed out. Gotta wait for the investors to acknowledge the assets (which they don't necessarily have to, but that is what price divergence is all about isn't it).

"Enjoy that, but know that fois gras is illegal in California.. porn flics are 'ART.'"

LOL! That says it all.