CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
[8:32am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 broke out to new 3 month highs. I mentioned that if that happened, that we would begin removing the hedge that we had started to put on. We had hedged 12% of the portfolio and took off half yesterday in the last hour when it was clear that the close was going to be strong. If this break-out fails, we will look at new hedges or taking some gains.
I wrote in yesterday morning’s blog chat to watch FCX for a breakout. Bill had mentioned the stock in the Week in Review as being a long candidate. We were already long the stock and added to it shortly after posting the chat note at $43.35. Subsequently, the stock rallied roughly to the 200 dma, found resisitance and closed at $44.47. We shall see how it trades around that natural resistance/support, but it looks to be a pretty good trade right now.
CPI, Housing Starts, Building Permits and Jobless Claims were just released and S&P futures are flat to up a little. Let’s see how the market trades by mid-morning on those numbers. I will be checking in later.
Have a great trading day!
Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.
| Symbol | Name | Last Trade | Change | Related Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^ATX | ATX | 1,969.00 |
 20.00 (1.03%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^BFX | BEL-20 | 2,170.02 |
14.32 (0.66%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FCHI | CAC 40 | 3,291.75 |
26.82 (0.82%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^GDAXI | DAX | 6,369.40 |
14.83 (0.23%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^AEX | AEX General | 317.25 |
1.73 (0.55%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^OSEAX | OSE All Share | 451.14 |
0.03 (0.01%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^OMXSPI | Stockholm General | 323.82 |
1.68 (0.52%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SSMI | Swiss Market | 6,149.73 |
33.50 (0.55%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FTSE | FTSE 100 | 5,719.12 |
16.75 (0.29%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| FPXAA.PR | PX Index | 914.20 |
11.80 (1.31%) |
Chart, More |
| ESI500000000.MA | IGBM | 850.86 |
8.65 (1.03%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| MICEXINDEXCF.ME | MICEX Index | 1,498.04 |
1.69 (0.11%) |
Chart, More |
| GD.AT | Athex Composite Share Price Index | 686.23 |
16.20 (2.42%) |
Chart, More |
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL
The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.
Enjoy your day.
Cara on Trends & Cycles
Vad's Catch of the Day
Kaimu's Sound Money
CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Comments
Econoday Today
RSI Summary as of EOD 2012-01-18
Accumulation Zone: Monthly 4, Weekly 2, Daily 4
Distribution Zone: Monthly 11, Weekly 10, Daily 46
Brazil cuts interest rates further to 10.5%
http://on.ft.com/xYDBY9
“If, as reported, the government does commit itself to cuts of as much as R$70bn, the path will open for Selic to continue to fall,” said Tony Volpon, an economist with Nomura in New York, forecasting that it would drop to 9 per cent depending on further weakness in the world economy.
FCX 4Q EPS 0.67 vs 1.63
http://www.fcx.com/news/2012/011912.pdf
Cara 100 Ratings Changes For Thursday
Good morning.
08:30 Initial Claims
08:30 CPI
08:30 Housing Starts
10:00 Philadelphia Fed
11:00 Crude Inventories
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BBD - Banco Bradesco downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
KSS - estimates, target cut at Credit Suisse. Shares are now seen reaching $50. Estimates also reduced, as the company is using more promotional activity, Credit Suisse added. Neutral rating.
NE - was added to the Top Picks List at FBR Capital Markets. Company has exposure to an improving jackup market, FBR said. $45 price target.
PAYX - Credit Suisse Initiates with an Outperform.
WAG - Walgreen downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman based on valuation and believes a deal with Express Scripts (ESRX) is unlikely. Price target lowered to $35 from $38.
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"Moses dragged us for 40 years through the desert to bring us to the one place in the Middle East where there was no oil." ~ Golda Meir
This Mornings Unemployment Report
http://is.gd/UnJysM
Repeat from WIR#50 Dec 11
When UXG and MAI.TO were down and seemingly out, I laid it on the line with you all. Obviously from subsequent comments regarding the TNR Gold lawsuit, it was apparent some of you missed my writing.
Since I went on the record in support of Rob McEwen, in the Dec. 11 WIR, his stocks have soared. This afternoon he will be holding a special meeting of shareholders to approve the merger. I'll be there.
http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-week-r...
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Many of you are concerned with the price of Gold and Silver and for some of you the under-performance of US Gold (UXG) and Minera Andes (MAI.TO). I too have been shocked by the latter, so in the Goldminer section I will provide you my full insight into what I see happening there. I’ll tell you now that for the past year I have not sold a share of these companies, except where required by a few clients, and that I believe McEwen Mining combination, slated for January, will be my pick for 2012 as the one stock I hold that will most exceed expectations.
-------------------------------------------------------
Many of you have been waiting for me to report on a couple of my favorite miners, soon to become one and the same company.
US Gold (UXG) and Minera Andes (MAI.TO)
These two companies will amalgamate in January under the name McEwen Mining, and trade under the ticker symbol MUX.
For 2011, Minera Andes is expected to produce about 2.6 mil ounces of silver and 45,000 ounces of gold (4.9 million silver eq. ounces using a 50:1 silver:gold ratio), which at the current price represents a revenue of about $240 million. These numbers represent Minera Andes’ 49% ownership of the San Jose Mine.
As reported during the Q3, US Gold will be developing its Mexican assets in two phases. Phase 1, now under construction, is expected to be completed by mid-2012. The project was split in two phases in order to accelerate cash flow and reduce the need for future financings. Between Minera Andes and US Gold’s projected cash flow, McEwen Mining expects little or no future dilution.
The bi-weekly photo gallery here shows construction progress in Mexico:
http://www.usgold.com/index.php?option=com_joomgal......
The company is expecting Mexico to add 10,000 ounces of gold in 2012 (500,000 silver equiv. ounces). Thus, the combined company would produce about 5.4 mil ounces of silver equiv. in 2012. Production for Phase 1 in Mexico will ramp up by the end of 2012 and should produce between 30,000 and 35,000 ounces of gold in 2013 (1.5 mil to 1.8 mil silver equiv. ounces). The combined company would then be producing about 6.7 million ounces of silver equiv. for 2013.
Phase 2 construction in Mexico will begin during 2013, adding a 5,000 tonne per day mill, which will significantly increase production. Once the mill is completed, the company is scheduled to produce 5.0 mil oz silver and 40,000-50,000 oz gold per year (7.3 mil silver equiv. oz) in Mexico. The combined company is on track to produce at the rate of 12.3 mil oz of silver equiv. per year by the end of 2014, which is annualized revenue of about $400 mil, based on today’s prices.
Here is where most analysts and I disagree: by 2014, I think the average price for silver will be about $80/oz, which would take the 2014 revenue to close to $1 billion.
US Gold recently completed a pre-feasibility study on the Gold Bar Project in Nevada. This is the last step before obtaining mining permits from the state (Bureau of Land Management). Obviously there is no definitive timeline for these permits. Discussions with the state apparently are at an early stage. But the company is looking to produce an average of 50,000 oz of gold per year from Gold Bar. That would bring the annualized production total to 14.8 million ounces of silver equiv. per year by year-end 2015.
Another key catalyst for the company is the lawsuit surrounding Minera Andes' Los Azules copper project. Los Azules is reported to be one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper discoveries. Currently the resource totals 12.5 billion lbs of copper and 2.3 million oz of gold and remains open for expansion. TNR Gold is challenging part ownership of the project. The lawsuit is expected to be heard late 2012. The company will argue that TNR’s claim has no merit and they expect to prevail with 100% ownership of the project. Exploration at Los Azules will start in January on the ground not being contested. This is a challenging property where the company can only drill four months a year due to the weather conditions. This year they purchased their own drills in order to advance exploration at a quicker pace, and now they anticipate exploration results in March and an updated resource by mid-year.
Exploration also recently started next to Goldcorp’s Cerro Negro discovery (purchased from Andean Resources for $3.5 billion) and Minera’s San Jose Mine. This will be the first dedicated exploration program in several years. Unlike the San Jose Mine, which Minera owns 49%, these properties are 100% owned. This will be a year around exploration program.
The combined company anticipates releasing a new resource estimate in the spring. Since the resources in Mexico were last calculated (Nov. 2010), a total of 125,000 meters of drilling has been completed. In addition, approximately 55,000 meters has been drilled at the San Jose Mine.
Since announcing the US Gold-Minera Andes amalgamation, SEC rules have prohibited the company to speak with investors/analysts. However, the registration statement is now complete and the SEC restriction may be lifted in a few days.
To sum up; McEwen Mining (US Gold and Minera Andes), which will trade under the ticker MUX on New York and Toronto, is set for significant production growth, the lawsuit with Los Azules will likely be resolved in their favour, and their heavy exploration program (around significant discoveries) will likely help these stocks. MUX will present the market with a steady stream of news updates through 2012.
The last financing of US Gold (UXG $3.69) was at US$6.50 per share. Rob personally took $20 million of that financing and was the largest participant. Rob is a man of principle. I do not believe he wants to see anybody purchase shares ~50% below his own cost.
MUX will be my selection for Stock of the Year 2012.
I think traders should be buying, not selling, or speaking negatively. I hold a greater than 11% portfolio weighting (UXG/MAI.TO) in the junior metals portfolio.
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See attached chart of recent stock price action.
took profits and closed all long positions.
The $CPC and $VIX are a bit too low and stopped falling. The shooting star on PTM also spooked me.
All in cash for a time being.
Edit: I guess I need to explain that I'm long term bullish, but only short term bearish. I could be easily wrong, but there is nothing wrong with taking some profits.
UXG
Great write up Bill! This is a great day for me personally. I own UXG in several accounts and my cost is well below the current price. I believe the next target price is $6.50 this year at a minimum. This should take away the embarassment of offering insiders the $6.50 price and then taking a 50% haircut.
There is a lot to do for UXG, i.e. MUX. I believe that ultimately, Rob will sell the Los Azules property for a hefty sum. Development costs to produce a copper mine will be overwhelming for such a small company. It reminds me of Exeter that has a similar enormous reserve in Chile where the CEO informed me that he thought it would take at least 3-4 billion to develop a mine and therefore they look to sell the property. Hochschild Mining (Harold Hochschild was my old boss at American Metal Climax) owns 51% of the San Jose Mine and probably wish they owned the whole thing. This is a great cash flow for UXG. The property near Cerro Negro could be a tremendous asset once full drilling takes place. Developing a mine or selling at a great profit to Barrick, etc. is a wonderful dilemna for Rob M.
I always thought that Rubicon could be a great acquisition and a steal for Rob at $5. I don't know how he would finance such an acquisition without causing a significant share dilution. So maybe that is out. The talk of taking over Lexam has been mentioned. I believe Rob owns 22% of that miner and it may be too soon to dilute more UXG for that takeover. That is something I would ask him privately.
I expect to see all UXG officials later this year. I wish I could be there in Toronto today but hope that you can relate the Q & A on this site. Good luck!!
Intel Corporation's announcement today
How many think it will disappoint?
I think it will due to the hard drive shortage.
Besides, Intel announcements typically coincide with market tops (not sure why).
GDX vs GDXJ
anyone know anything about this divergence?
I cannot seem to find similar examples in the past.
Edit: Never mind, sounds like KGC is pulling GDX down.
Re: took profits and closed all long positions.
jack,
curious why you're short term bearish. Too much good news, improving sentiment, profit taking?
Mike
Nat Gas companies have been getting hammered lately. HGT and SJ
Eventually there should be some good buys in this industry once the nat gas price stabalizes. Because of the big drop in the stock price the dividend yields for these stocks come in at 7% and 9%. Of course they may have to reduce the dividends.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/ch...
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/ch...
Re: took profits and closed all long positions.
It's a number of things. Some explained in my previous posts. It boils down to frothy sentiments at the moment. The new year move was largely caused by short covering and people chasing the markets that are running away. There are limits to those moves. I expect there will be a shakeout to lose weak hands that bought on the recent strength. No guaranties and I could be easily wrong.
Longer term I'm bullish as bonds will sell off and the money have to go somewhere else.
One more thing. I don't like how both dollars and gold go down and i consider dollars overbought.
Re: Intel Corporation's announcement today
I sold Intel 2 days ago. I was very glad I sold Johnson Controls 2 days ago. They really got smacked down when they reported today. Over the past 2 days I've sold about 15 different stocks such as INTC, MSFT, DOW, JCI and other such companys. Put a little cash to work in Kinross and Weyerhauser and went from a 95% risk on to about a 40%. The market is not being kind to anyone who misses on the numbers this quarter.
UXG Meeting
There will be no video or audio of the meeting per Investor's Relations. I hope somebody can report on this site after the meeting on Q & A.
Long Term Thoughts on Kinross (KGC)
Kinross and its management are coming under a lot of pressure right now for the stock performance over the past 2 years and righly so (stock hitting new multi year lows today around $10 per share).
I think there may be an opportunity here as a value investment. Back up from the stock for a minute and focus on the actual business. Company is producing 2.6-2.8 million ounce of gold annually. Market cap of the company is only $11Billion and company has $0 debt. Production at the company has actually INCREASED each year significantly over the past five years. They own some great undeveloped properties in South America and Africa.
Part of what is going on has to do with expectations. Costs are increasing meaning margins are not as high as expected, and the projections regarding production increases keep getting pushed out so you have a company that will not get to 4 million ounces of production for longer than anticipated. Probably 5 more years instead of 3 more years.
The dumping of the stock here is revulsion from investors fed up by being mislead by management over last several years and overpaying for acquisitions. Keep in mind however that all of these different mines were purchased with STOCK NOT DEBT, so other shareholders loss could eventually be our gain. For $11B here you get a company that is producing 2.6 million ounces of gold TODAY and in 5 years could be at the 4 million ounce mark and still owns some trophy properties today.
Compare these numbers to some of the other large miners. Newmont is a $30B company, Goldcorp is a $45B company (producing similar amount as Kinross today but has much better margins). Name your price $10,9,8,7,6 but I don't see any insolvency risk here due to ZERO debt and the stock becomes a compelling value and potential takeout target. I plan on playing this by buying the 2014 warrants on TSX exchange and /or LEAPS here in USA buying in the money call options that will give me a little leverage without too much cost.
Re: Repeat from WIR#50 Dec 11
Thanks Bill for the highly educational write up. I'm hoping for another chance to get back in. Since I sold, the stock ran up another 10-20% (although my profit was not bad) !
Re: took profits and closed all long positions.
Thanks Jack,
I'm waiting for an entry point, most likely after Greece defaults.
Mike
Worthy read
Not a first time I see this view of Chinese economy by ex-USSR commentators (this article refers to one of them).
http://pointsandfigures.com/2012/01/19/china-the-s...
Google missed
i suspect a gap tomorrow. can go either way i guess once the news is digested.
IBM MSFT AND INTC being
IBM MSFT AND INTC being bought after hours. cross currents a plenty.
Repeat from WIR #50
Great work, again, Bill
This stock goes back for me a few years , when you graciously set up a meeting at PDAC in Toronto with Rob McKwen and any of us from the Cara Community that was there. He is an exceptional man to have at the helm of a company. I rode the stock successfully then and have jumped back on in anticipation of the next move.
PS. any here that can hook up with Bill at the PDAC or his conferences I can assure you it is well worth the price of admission. At PDAC is time is free, but info gained there will easily pay for your conference.
Europe
Banks in Europe rallied today, I know not why; even lowly Commerzbank (which I do hold, but is not one of my key holdings) was up around 12%, first time I've seen the shares over $2 in several months.
Re: IBM MSFT AND INTC being
INTC initially went up on hopes but later crashed on reality (all afterhours). No good news is bad news?
The MSFT move is impressive (almost 3% afterhours). But how come QQQ is down afterhours?
Sinclair @ KWN
Sinclair says global QE3 can only be accomplished by the NY Fed capacity to print and will result in europeans redeeming gold from the Manhattan vault as suggested by the current MSM in europe. Tight market gets tighter.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWe...
Re: Sinclair @ KWN
Hi Dr. S - Nice article .. who knows about the timing. Thanks to Bill and others I am finally into KGC. Anyone have thoughts about Torex. Might be time to take my Bakken/Niobrara gains, but always looking for long haul when entering. Happy Trading
New start for MUX
Rob McEwen held a successful meeting this afternoon with overwhelming support for the merger. While they could not do a real-time presentation of the meeting, the tape will be uploaded to the company website Friday or over the weekend. Full speed ahead.
Re: New start for MUX
Thanks Bill for the update. I'm ridin' my UXG like Donnie Gay on Bodacious. (That's a rodeo reference for you non-cowboys out there)
GE Reports
GE Reports tomorrow.
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20120120.html
AAPL earnings is April 24
Just to note, QQQ is at a 10 yr high and it's only Jan 19.
http://bit.ly/zYiNvL
Re: New start for MUX
Hey Doc S.
Donnie Gay and Bodacious were regulars at the Mesquite rodeo eons back. My son was in the group that bought the Mesquite rodeo from Tom Hicks when he was on the ropes a few years ago.
If you're ridin' UXG like Bodacious, know that Bodacious was known as 'the face killer.' Any cowboy that drew him usually had piss stained jeans even before he was let out the gate... Not that I know anything about UXG but if you follow the bull too closely you're liable at best to soil your boots...
Re: Nat Gas companies have been getting hammered lately. ...
At the back of my mind I have a concern about US trusts such as HGT, such that they can be wound up if their revenue streams fall below some threshold. Sorry I can't remember the details, but you may want to research this before putting any hard earned cash into them. Should you find something interesting, please publish it here.
The Googlie 'tell'
Since the dean of covert advertising lost at 'beat the number', would this not imply that coupled with reported and seriously skanky Xmas retail sales that all is not so well in WHO-ville?
Only the leading indicators know for sure and we won't know 'fer sure' til we see them blinking recession in our rear view mirrors.
Speaking of the injustice of our financial system, pressing down its crown of thorns on savers and the elderly, my 92 year old Mother in Law almost stroked when she was informed that rolling over her 5 year 5% yielding CD's now only fetched a meager 1.5%. NOW THAT's DEFLATION...
The emerging equity gap - McKinsey Global Inst. report
Several forces are converging to reshape global capital markets in the coming decade and reduce the role of listed equities. The most important of these is the rapid shift of wealth to emerging markets where private investors typically put less than 15 percent of their money into equities (compared to 30–40 percent in many mature economies).The result will be a potential $12 trillion “equity gap” over the next decade between the amount of money that investors will wish to hold in equities and the amount that companies will need to fund growth.
http://www.mckinsey.com/Insights/MGI/Research/Fina...
Post Close
If $NDX total breadth in the McClellan oscillator is at bearish divergence with the index highs then I know to watch my back. Looks like an evening star printed by the NASDAQ yesterday.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_sc...
We shall see.
Robert Sinn pointed out the golden crosses soon to arrive on the S&P and NASDAQ and the likelihood that these bullish signs could mark an intermediate high before the market tests support. That's market logic I can understand.
http://www.robertsinn.com/2012/01/18/get-excited-g...
Although Sinn rightly points out that $DJIA made its golden cross and not looked back, I'll hazard a guess that it will soon enough, as this ascending narrowing wedge reverses at some point. Watching the tests of support in various indexes will be key to hopping back on board.
TLT has not sold off decisively and remains within this zone of consolidation. That tells me something.
And the dollar tests 8MA support in the weekly time frame. It shows signs of topping out, but without an MACD crossover I don't see signs of trend change yet. Note in the daily how RSI remains in the upper, bullish zone of 50+.
Overbought becomes overboughter as Vad would say, until it doesn't.
Faber - World War III Will Occur In The Next 5 Years
http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/world-wa...
I'm not used to hearing hyperbole from Faber, so I took a moment to think through the implications of the following passage:
That means the Middle East will blow up. New regimes there will be less Western-friendly. The West has also figured out it can't contain China, which is rising rapidly and will have more military and naval power in Southeast Asia. The only way for the West to contain China is to control the oil tap in the Middle East...
Note that this interview was given to an Israeli audience - it is a targeted message that may implicate a much greater swath of territory than just the Middle East. We can only speculate on such.
What did strike me is the present Iranian situation and how its regime is at odds with Israel, the US and to a lesser extent the OECD community. More importantly, the dependence that a number of OECD economies have on Iranian oil - Greece and Italy I think I saw quoted in the news.
We know now that embargoes and economic blockades don't work. In fact its often business as usual, if you have the right connections. Israeli media recently reported on how Israeli business regularly attempts to circumvent a long standing blockade against Iran:
http://english.themarker.com/the-badly-kept-secret...
So what does the US et al. expect to achieve by an oil embargo, which several governments have asked to delay the enactment of so that alternative imports may be organised (you can't make this stuff up). So what will happen, Iran will just turn the spigots off and leave the oil in the ground for their children? Or is China already negotiating behind the scenes to take that excess supply and reroute it to their own economy? Remember, it's only the EU that has agreed to halt Iranian purchases, not the UN.
So anticipating this move by the Chinese, what are the Americans going to do about it? Things start getting interesting at that point.
Non US Economic Data for 19 Jan
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE S.A. Australia for Dec
Actual: 5.2% Cons.: 5.3% Previous: 5.2% Revised from 5.3%
Housing is one of the main proponents of household wealth in Oz. The day that market crashes, unemployment will increase considerably. Yet as the above figures show, the Australian economy remains on even keel at this time.
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ECB MONTHLY REPORT
http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/mobu/mb201201en.pdf
http://www.fx360.com/calendar/
US Economic Data for 19 Jan
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (YOY) Dec
Actual: 3.0% Cons.: 3.1% Previous: 3.4%
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX EX FOOD & ENERGY (YOY)
Actual: 2.2% Cons.: 2.2% Previous: 2.2% Dec
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS for Jan 14
Actual: 352K Cons.: 392K Previous: 402K Revised from 399K
CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS for Jan 7
Actual: 3.432M Cons.: 3.590M Previous: 3.647M Revised from 3.647M
http://www.fx360.com/calendar/
LEI for China Increases Again
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for China increased 0.7 percent in December to 222.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in November and a 0.4 percent increase in October. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in December.
“December’s monthly increase in the LEI for China was in part due to seasonal factors, as firms ramped up production ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. Increased bank lending and an uptick in consumer sentiment also contributed to the reading in December, as liquidity conditions eased somewhat.” says Andrew Polk, resident economist of The Conference in Beijing,
“However, the LEI growth has been slowing gradually over the last six months, and strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have become balanced. While this trend indicates that economic growth will continue to slow in the first quarter of 2012 on weak external demand and previous policy tightening, the government’s shifting focus from inflation control to growth support should herald continued gradual policy easing, putting a floor under the deceleration.”
http://www.conference-board.org/press/pressdetail....
LEI for France Declines
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France declined 0.2 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.1 percent in November.
The Conference Board LEI for France fell in November for the fourth time in five months. Negative contributions from inverted new unemployment claims and productions expectations more than offset a large positive contribution from the yield spread.
In the six-month period ending November 2011, the leading economic index declined by 0.3 percent (about a -0.5 percent annual rate), well below the increase of 3.0 percent (about a 6.1 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained more widespread than the strengths in recent months.
http://www.conference-board.org/press/pressdetail....