Bill Cara's Blog for Jan 3, 2012

Accumulation Zone: Monthly 12, Weekly 5, Daily 4
Distribution Zone: Monthly 6, Weekly 10, Daily 7

just like I mentioned yesterday.
easily seen on QQQ, SPY, EEM, and many other charts.
This should put some pressure on dollar and bonds and propel PM and miners.

FD: long gold, silver, platinum, miners, and emerging markets.

http://reut.rs/s86Px5

(Reuters) - The first of Vale's (VALE5.SA) giant dry bulk vessels to arrive in China has completed delivery of its iron ore cargo, shipping data showed on Tuesday, a key step forward in the Brazilian miner's plan to cut shipping costs to its biggest market.

Reuters Freightviews and independent shipping data confirmed the 388,000-tonne vessel, Berge Everest, had departed China's Port of Dalian over the weekend for Singapore, where it will likely refuel for its journey back to Brazil.

Draught measurements indicated the ship had unloaded all or nearly all of its iron ore cargo in Dalian.

Vale has ordered 35 of the world's largest dry bulk carriers, of which six are already on the water, at an estimated cost of $4.2 billion from Chinese and Korean shipyards.

The world's second largest miner had been trying since June 2011 to get Chinese authorities to allow the megaships to enter the country's ports.

Chinese port officials have declined to comment on the arrival of Berge Everest, leaving it unclear as to whether other giant Vale ships will be allowed to dock in the country's ports.

Five other giant ships operated by Vale, the world's top iron ore producer, were not expected to follow Berge Everest into China at least in the near term.

Shipping data showed two heading back to Brazil, two in Europe and one -- the Vale Beijing -- anchored off Brazil's Ponta da Madeira Port.

The Vale Beijing, the newest member of the "Valemax" fleet, developed cracks in its hull on its maiden voyage, sparking concerns from Chinese shipowners about the safety of these ships.

Chinese shipowners and steelmakers are strongly opposed to Vale's vessels, fearing the ships are a "Trojan Horse" that the miner will use to monopolize both the shipping and iron ore markets at China's expense.

Vale, which sells about 40 percent of its ore to China, is counting on Valemaxes to slash shipping costs and better compete with Australian rivals BHP Billiton (BHP.AX) and Rio Tinto (RIO.AX). While Vale's ore is generally of higher quality, that advantage is cancelled by Australia's proximity to China, the world's top steelmaker and biggest ore importer.

ABT: Downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley

I wish it was that simple.

AAPL - estimates, target cut at Morgan Keegan. Shares of AAPL now seen reaching $513, according to Morgan Keegan. Esitmates also reduced, given lower expected iPad and Mac sales. Outperform rating.

for the 99%, I am left wondering how this will affect the living standards of the ' average ' citizen. Certainly, housing and health are in the mix. As prices head higher, choices get smaller. And yet, people must eat. Although food quality continues to improve, so do prices, and quantity comes into play. The ' carb ' and sugar content will remain constant, if not increasing. It is no secret that a large portion of the American public is overweight, and that ' cheap ' food is more apt to fill a belly, than more expensive, healthy alternatives. With this intake comes the increasing incidence of diabetes and other negative health and social consquences. Congress will be ' leaning ' on the FDA to address this issue that is draining $$ dollars from the health system. Most cannot afford expensive diet plans and will not find the time or motivation to address the situation. As much as I detest ' chemical alternatives ', I believe this will in fact be the route taken by a majority of those living with these conditions, as it is cheap, quick, and private. Currently ARNA, VVUS and OREX are the major players chasing the weight loss pill. I have no idea which one (s) may win approval, if any at all do so. But I long held the opinion that OREX was the ' most safe ' as it uses a combination of two, already FDA approved, drugs and is currently running a 10,000 person test process to seek approval. VVUS and ARNA are not. They had pre-FDA panel approval before the main, 3 person body vote, required the additional testing early last year. As noted, I got slammed last year. Recently, there has been some nice buying of the stock. Only time will tell.

http://tinyurl.com/768x9ag

"The former Portuguese colony, an hour from Hong Kong by ferry, is the only place in China in which casino gambling is allowed, helping it rake in revenue five times larger than U.S. rival Las Vegas."

This is what you find within 100km from Macau:

Hong Kong 7 million people
Shenzhen 11 million
Guangzhou 13 million
Dongguan 8 million
Foshan 7 million
Jiangmen 4.5 million
Zhongshan 3 million
Zhuhai 1.5 million

They call the region for the "Pearl River Delta Mega City" and I find the region extremely interesting from all possible point of views; political, economical, social, infrastructural and so on.

Heard about the 50 km long Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge/Tunnel complex?

http://www.hkbcf-design.hk/

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard knows how to write an entertaining story. Fiction or reality? The future will tell.

http://tinyurl.com/6qeny2g

A nice "Goose" to the Markets on the first trading day of 2012. Happy New Year....
DB

suddenly all my recently purchased PM and miners turned green from red. What a difference one day makes. I especially liked the HL action today. I hope this action will stay around a bit longer.

hypothecation, doctor copper, capital controls, CFTC, CME, CPI, CDS, CDO, SIV, GDP (ormula), Gresham's Law, reserve currency, FIAT currency, LBMA, SDRs, currency war, hyperinflation, inflation, deflation, stagflation, PIIGS, ECB, IMF, OPEC, G20, European Monetary Union, TED, VIX ...

Edit: How about adding 'Paper Gold' so as not to get too nuanced for dave? At least you could define 'spot price' to be safe.

Edit II: Oh, and how could you not include QE and all its other euphemisms!

Edit III: negative real interest rates, military industrial complex

MAHIA,death cross ,golden cross..

Media effect,puke day.

new buyout fund to take aim at Europe....French Pres. Sarkozy's brother Olivier heading up the efforts....

"Carlyle Group's new financial services buyout fund is likely to look to Europe for its investments, where the continent's fiscal woes are expected to force a flurry of asset sales over the next few years.

Once it has the necessary capital, Carlyle will turn its attention to Europe. New capital regulations and the ongoing euro crisis are projected to squeeze European financial institutions, forcing them to sell off noncore assets to pay down debts. When those businesses are put up for sale, private equity firms will be among the most active bidders.

"The assets are going to be undervalued because companies have to sell them," Smith said. "[Private equity] can come in with some fresh capital to allow people to do some new things that they couldn't do because they were capital constrained."

Firms like Carlyle also do not have to contend with the same level of antitrust scrutiny that an industry-specific acquirer might face, he added.

Carlyle Managing Director and Global Financial Services Group Head P. Olivier Sarkozy has echoed that perspective in the past, telling The Australian in early December that his industry can support the financial system by acting as an "efficient source of capital." He said Carlyle's financial services fund division would be interested in investments across the asset management, insurance, brokerage and capital markets sectors."

A little anecdote to add to Davefairtex's discussion on money. Fiat is not always money either.
Last year I went to the UK on vacation and attempted to use a 20 pound note that I had from a previous visit. The store would not accept it. Apparently the note had been rendered obsolete by a new design intended to reduce counterfeiting, so was no longer even currency. Fortunately I could still swap it for a replacement at a bank, but as I said to my friend, it wouldn't have happened with a gold coin. So Dave, don't bury your paper stash too deep.

CNN has technical difficulties? right when a solder was about to say something positive on Ron Paul's view on the wars?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedd...

miles -

Since this video conclusively shows fiat money is completely worthless, how about you give me a few hundred $20 bills and I'll give you a loaf of bread.

During the depression exactly the opposite happened, of course, when credit money was destroyed by bankruptcy and bank failure. I wish I had a video of that, but I don't. But I do remember stories from my stepfather, who used to talk about having a date with a girl and explaining to her that he had exactly twenty five cents to spend on the date, and so whatever they wanted to do, that had to cover it. I think a movie was a dime.

It is interesting to see that there IS somewhere in the world where gold is actually money. That would be Zimbabwe.

But let me ask you something. Presumably you live in the US. What do you carry in your wallet? Gold, or that worthless fiat that isn't "real money"?

I'm not against gold, I'm for it. I think its a great component of a diversified wealth preservation strategy. As I have said before, I hold to Faber's allocation - 25% gold, 25% real estate, 25% cash, and 25% stocks. But I'm not one of the people who can only imagine gold will rise in value under every circumstance. I can envision situations where gold will DROP in value. And I don't imagine that gold is money. I use cash when I want to buy something, not gold.

By definition, unless gold is in general use as a medium of exchange, it is NOT MONEY. It makes nice jewelry, might be worth a lot more someday, has a lovely color, its heavy, will protect you from hyperinflation, and it acts as an international currency - but it is NOT MONEY.