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Bill Cara's Blog for Jul 6, 2011 [See Post-Close report]

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning.

Softness in the equity markets of France, Germany and the UK this morning is coming almost entirely from the major banks, and the selling, although not serious at this point, has increased in the past 45 minutes. Otherwise the markets would be modestly higher. I suppose the shareholders of the banks are not too happy with the US ratings agencies and media maintaining a full-court press, now pushing hard down on Portugal as well as Greece, rather than say California, Illinois and New Jersey. The Euro has been hammered twice overnight, and the second sell-off, starting at about 6am ET, has weakened the precious metals a bit, although not as much as the banks and other stocks. However, the goldminers in Europe are so far holding in, and in fact a bit higher. Could be a very interesting day to watch the miners and the oilers in the US and Canada. With a stronger $USD, we'll have to watch for any counter-cyclical action in the goldminers and oilers as has happened recently.

Have a good day.




Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.


Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,751.00 5:25AM EDT Down 25.00 (0.90%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,552.76 6:58AM EDT Down 19.16 (0.74%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,962.56 6:58AM EDT Down 16.27 (0.41%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 7,430.65 6:43AM EDT Down 8.79 (0.12%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 341.47 6:43AM EDT Down 1.63 (0.48%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 474.82 6:43AM EDT Down 3.78 (0.79%) Components, Chart, More
^SMSI Madrid General N/A 0.00 (0.00%) Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 355.65 6:44AM EDT Down 1.86 (0.52%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,200.69 6:42AM EDT Down 42.32 (0.68%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,989.81 6:43AM EDT Down 34.22 (0.57%) Components, Chart, More





http://finviz.com/futures.ashx



http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES




http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB




http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX




http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC




http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI




http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL




The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara on Trends & Cycles


Vad's Catch of the Day


Kaimu's Sound Money


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


Good evening. Patrick here.

Oh boy, can it get any slower? The sheer upward momentum generated by last week’s rally should have bullish implications going forward meaning the dipsters are going to be out in force doing what they do best.

Early morning weakness attributed to another Chinese rate hike quickly dissipated buyers dictating the pace of play, the opening downside gap easily filled. Once that mission was accomplished the balance of the day was spent jogging in place, equities going nowhere fast (S&P+0.10%)

Precious metals (SLV+1.07%; GLD+0.89%), the US Dollar (DXY+0.61%), and US Treasuries (TLT+0.38%) were firm all day long, and portfolio managers still seemed content to add to high beta growth stocks.

It is hard to find fault with the action in Netflix (NFLX+0.47%), VM Ware (VMW+2.63%), SalesForce.com (CRM+1.52%), and Amazon (AMZN+0.40%). If the market wants to go higher who are we to argue – being adaptable and flexible in your strategy will allow you to get in synch with the primary movements making the goal of consistent profitability much easier to attain.

The only real takeaway from today was the resiliency of the stock market; the impulsive nature of the current rally suggests it will be hard finding comfortable entry points, with sell-offs being few and far between.

Look for buyers to support the S&P on the 50-day moving average at 1317, and profit taking to materialize at 1345 and 1370.

ADP tomorrow morning with unemployment numbers released Friday – should be a bit more volatile over the next couple days.

Have a great evening.


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Comments

Econoday Today

  • 7:00 AM ET MBA Purchase Applications
  • 7:30 AM ET Challenger Job-Cut Report
  • 7:45 AM ET ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
  • 8:55 AM ET Redbook
  • 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Mfg Index
  • 11:30 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction
  • Deutsche Bank research views on the major miners & goldminers

    Bulk miners:

    Teck Resources (TCK) is expected to gain from its coking coal and copper exposure, with volumes expected to grow by ~33% and 40% respectively in the medium term. Recently announced share buy-back program should be supportive and improved cash flow generation could pave the way for dividend hikes.

    Vale (VALE) should benefit from its exposure to iron ore (~2/3rd of total revenues) as we remain bullish on the commodity. Rising met coal prices will also encourage steelmakers to use higher quality iron ore such as those sold by Vale. Exposure to nickel should eventually boost non-ferrous EBITDA. Share buy-back announcement a positive too.

    Golds:

    Newmont (NEM) has a compelling valuation and cash flow generation potential. With gold prices expected to continue to increase from current levels, Newmont should throw off high free cash flow. Though near-term growth is limited, recently announced medium to long-term profile denotes growth potential from within. Innovative gold price-linked dividend could be a potential catalyst and share-buy backs cannot be ruled out.

    Barrick Gold (ABX) looks attractive on valuation. Given its large un-hedged gold portfolio, Barrick is well positioned to take advantage of expected near to medium-term boom in gold prices. Dividend hike has already come into play and with strong cash flow further dividend increases are possible. Recent acquisition of Equinox Minerals increases copper exposure, but contribution remains within range of other gold peers.

    Re: GORO

    The Barron's article on GORO was a complete hatchet job, and it was preceded by a very significant rise in short interest. The author Michael Santoli is clearly a captured journalist - on the payroll of some short hedge fund. The Reids got zero credit for what to my knowledge is the best performing gold mining stock over the past five years at 2000% total return (an amazing 90% annualized - and that's at the current depressed share price) since initial financing at $1/share. Mr. Santoli hides from his readers the fact that GORO has expensed all of its exploration/construction costs and that is why GAAP earnings have been so negative up until the last quarter. His comments on Hochschild and the supposed superiority of SEC standards over Canada's NI43-101 standard are laughable to anyone who is remotely familiar with the mining sector. The main difference is the SEC requires a definitive feasibility study rather than just a prefeasibility study to declare reserves. The Reid's got financing (from themselves, Toqueville, Hochschild, Jeffries, etc.) directly after a scoping study without spending the years required to get to the definitive feasibility level. This was a risk but it paid off big time for shareholders. Now that they are producing at a profit I can't believe they are being criticized for this highly successful decision. Santoli makes fun of the monthly dividend policy as if it is a bad thing in a sector where dividends are few and far in between, and he insinuates that management is selling all their shares when in fact they still own like 18% or so of the corporation. If you invested at $1/share and the stock rose to $30 wouldn't you sell some too? John Doody has already responded at length and is buying more GORO:

    http://goldresourcecorp.com/releases/GRC-2011-07-0...

    Just to lend a little credibility to my position, I've been a GORO investor for a very long time and posted here in 2008 on the company:

    http://caracommunity.com/content/caras-commentary-...

    GORO has its problems (primarily production ramp-up has been much slower than expected) and it is certainly highly valued on the metrics but those who know this sector know that the best-managed companies stay highly valued (think Glamis, Randgold, Franco Nevada, etc). Now it appears that it is the target of a short-selling hedge fund attack. I doubt if it lasts till the next ex-div date.

    Morning Report

    "I suppose the shareholders of the banks are not too happy with the US ratings agencies and media maintaining a full-court press, now pushing hard down on Portugal as well as Greece, rather than say California, Illinois and New Jersey."

    Bill,

    Bankers no doubt watch such happenings with a sharp focus.

    Speaking as a guy in Illinois, I must say what I hear from friends and neighbors is far removed from our conversations here regarding financial matters.

    Those who seldom change their investments and could not be classed as any kind of trader — day, swing, or even allocation reallocating — are dismayed and disgusted with what appears to be a disconnect between legislative bodies, rating agencies, the Fed and our daily lives and concerns. It appears that many, if not most, my age (retirees) are holding tightly to various bonds. The recent equity plunge is simply too reminiscent of what our parents saw in 1929. The term "Gambling" with stocks," comes to mind.

    Diversions like the Blagojevich trial/conviction smother the real issues and people who are struggling to find jobs or keep one, pay the mortgage and ever rising food and energy costs are far removed from the causes of the malaise.

    I wonder if this is so in the Canada, the European Union, Scandinavia and Great Britain as well.

    If so, those pulling the strings will go on until we see a major global crisis, I suspect.

    Grym

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    Re: Morning Report

    Grym,

    Re: "Diversions like the Blagojevich trial/conviction smother the real issues and people who are struggling to find jobs or keep one, pay the mortgage and ever rising food and energy costs are far removed from the causes of the malaise... I wonder if this is so in the Canada, the European Union, Scandinavia and Great Britain as well."

    From what I can see, there is a consistency of life under whatever political system is in place, anywhere in the world. The one defining characteristic of the system in America, as I see it, is that the process of cover-up is intermingled with and facilitated by entertainment, which is why we refer to it as a circus, whereas in most other countries, there is more of a class system in place where the elitists look upon their taking advantage of the common people as sport.

    Cara 100 Ratings Changes For POMO Wednesday

    Good morning.

    2.5 - 3.5 Billion Dollar POMO Injection Today.

    ------

    07:00 MBA Mortgage Index (-5.2%)
    07:30 Challenger Job Cuts (5.2%)
    10:00 ISM Services

    ------

    AMZN - Collins Stewart Initiates with a Neutral. Target $180

    GOOG - Collins Stewart Initiates with a Buy. Target $680

    SCHW - Charles Schwab initiated with a Hold at Citigroup. Target $18

    WFM - Whole Foods coverage assumed with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray. Target $77

    ------

    "The only good bureaucrat is one with a pistol at his head. Put it in his hand and it's good-bye to the Bill of Rights." -- H.L. Mencken

    The Real Numbers

    "Since Obama was elected President on November 4th, 2008, the U.S. dollar has lost 48% of its purchasing power. Americans today spend 48% more for gasoline than they did the day of the last election. Americans today also spend 105% more for sugar, 78% more for coffee, 58% more for corn, with similar gains for many other agricultural commodities. The U.S. government and Federal Reserve created all of this inflation in an attempt to reinflate the Real Estate bubble, yet the median U.S. home price declined by 2.4% during this time period. Meanwhile, the real unemployment rate has increased from 16.8% to 22.3%."

    Plus: The Ron Paul Presidential Campaign, GOP Contenders and Media Bias....
    new from the NIA:

    http://tinyurl.com/6352o36

    *GOLD*togo *ATM*

    A vending machine in a London shopping center, a city where downtown, underground parking spots sell for over $300K USD. Notice they use the term ATM as if gold were a currency. The nerve. :)

    http://www.gizmag.com/gold-to-go-launches-in-londo...

    the pony

    So Kaimu, I feel you usually have something interesting to say in your sound money posts, but for every word of substance, there are three words of rant and ramble.

    We all (me included) have to retain a sense of the value of our reader's time. If we waste their time by writing too inefficiently, they'll tune out and stop reading. And unless you are simply writing for purposes of ego - just to hear yourself talk - having your readers tune out because of wordiness when you have something of value to communicate isn't a good thing.

    Maybe think of it in sound money terms. You are inflating the time it takes for a reader to understand your point, thus debasing the value of his time, the result being fewer readers accepting the currency of the content you write. Perhaps we could End The FED of Wordiness, Ramble, and Unnecessary Polemic. :)

    Return to the Gold Standard of communication. Write about one topic per post. And in that post, always think: Is This Phrase Really Necessary?

    Interesting to note PM strength

    following this pre-market take down. Perhaps smart money positioning itself, but I noticed SLW stayed green even as SLV got hit hard. The market seeing beyond these cheap tricks? Gold has gone ballistic:

    http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5

    Schäuble wants to 'break' ratings agencies' power

    http://bit.ly/r7Rv2I

    Standard & Poor's Germany boss Torsten Hinrichs on Wednesday sought to defend his firm in an interview on German ARD public television.

    "There are about 100 ratings agencies in the world. The importance given to the big three comes from the fact they have proven to be accurate in their ratings" issued over many years, he said.

    It Depends on What the Definition of Default Is

    Curious timing on the downgrade of Portugal. Why now and not a long time ago?

    When is a default not a default? When the lawyers say so.

    Seriously, this would be comical if it weren't so serious. Seriously.

    The inability to repay your debt on an agreed upon schedule isn't default.

    Really?

    Greece was small potatoes, played by the elitists for sport. I don't see Ireland or Portugal being much different. All three easy to score on. They'll need some home-cookin' referees when they get to Italy...

    Crazy.

    Re: the pony

    Dave, you put this very well.

    I am certainly one of those who started reading Kaimu's posts. However, as they got longer and more and more full of political rant and ramble, I just stopped. Sure such posts may have meaning (say on a political discussion blog) but I wish it were not on this blog...

    Sov debt crisis (big moves today)

    Markit iTraxx SovX WE 247.12 17.6 (7.7%) 14:11

    Portugal 890 122 (16%) 13:00
    Italy 220 24 (12.3%) 13:00
    Ireland 825 87 (11.9%) 13:00
    Greece 2090 174 (9.1%) 13:00
    Spain 301 25 (9.2%) 13:00

    pony

    agree with the above comments, way too much ranting, just the facts please. no offense intended.

    Re: the pony

    With all due respect, Kaimu's posts are excellent. It's impossible to separate markets from politics in today's world.

    The information gathered & presented by Kaimu is available nowhere else and his angle & opinions are welcomed.

    sold SLW calls

    I ain't passing up a 100% gain after 2 sessions. Potential bearish divergence setting in and I am up and running again tomorrow. Will spend today looking for potential setups.

    AttachmentSize
    SLW 10 mins. 107.2 KB

    VHC- breakout potential

    new highs

    Thje Pony

    I too appreciate Kaimu's efforts to penetrate the monetary thicket.

    Re: *GOLD*togo *ATM*

    4ever,

    This is also done in South Florida, I believe.

    Re: the pony

    Kaimu, do not let these comments effect your writings! Truth be truth Rave on and on and on and... Cheers!

    Re: The Real Numbers

    BH,

    "Since Obama was elected President on November 4th, 2008, the U.S. dollar has lost 48% of its purchasing power."

    Whenever I point this out to friends and family, i show them the rise in the price of gold. Since it has relatively little industrial use and has been a recognized store of value forever, I think of is as the best barometer of currency debasement.

    On Father's Day I pointed this out to my son who has been primarily a holder of gold funds for some time simply based on observation of its behavior relative to other investments. Now he has one more reason ;-)

    I am still of my long time opinion that the Fed cannot control anything except perhaps Congress and the media perceptions. Many of us are, unfortunately, experiencing a massive deflation of wages and other forms of income and inflation in the necessities of life simultaneously.

    As Bill points out, those in the global control seats are playing us for suckers.

    Grym

    Re: *GOLD*togo *ATM*

    not from this company, although there was a test in Florida as I recall someone posting here. There is one in Vegas for those interested in trying it out:

    http://www.gold-to-go.com/en/company/atm-locations/

    Under Promising & Over Delivering (BEXP)

    Hi - Noted this summary of the larger players in the Bakken oil shale - made viable through the innovation of modern well stimulation. Thanks Halliburton et.al., and thanks to Kaimu for his insights. For those that don't want to hear the tragedy wrought on us in the U.S. by progressive elements within both parties don't go to the special section Bill has set aside for Kaimu's insights. Happy Trading
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/278151-3-leading-c...

    Re: the pony

    squish,

    Since most of us here are in agreement with Kaimu's story, I'm hoping his recent trip to CA will spread the sad tale to many more of the uninformed.

    Grym

    Cara 100 Update (Final)

    AAPL - estimates were boosted at Sterne Agee through 2012. Company should benefit from better component pricing, Sterne Agee said. Buy rating and $460 price target.

    JOYG - estimates were raised through 2012 at Robert Baird. LeTourneau purchase should add to earnings, Baird said. Outperform rating and $114 price target.

    Re: The Real Numbers

    He didn't mention what equity prices have done since then. I love politicians....cherry picking data to their benefit. Let me guess....McCain would have turned everything around and we would be sitting at 5% unemployment.

    Kaimu

    We must learn to educate.

    Enormous effort goes into creating "Kaimu's Sound Money" and some insist on complaining about style and length? Why post publicly such ridiculous criticism of free, optional and easily avoidable content?

    Perhaps the critics wish to discourage opinion and debate?

    If you disagree, please prepare a coherent rebuttal. I sent this quote to Bill once and it certainly would help us all to remember its wisdom;

    "It is NOT the critic who counts, not the one who points out how the strong man stumbled or how the doer of deeds might have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena who's face is marred with sweat, dust and blood; who strives valiantly who errs and comes short again and again; who knows the great enthusiasm, the great devotion and spends himself in a worthy cause; who if he wins, knows the triumph of achievement and when if he fails at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who are afraid to risk victory nor defeat...."

    pulse

    VRUS- another potential breakout

    today to watch.

    Re: The Real Numbers

    Bull Hunter,

    More accurately: since Obama was elected China has stepped up its consumption, and in some cases, stockpiling of commodities.

    The reckless economic policies of the previous administration resulted in a finacial meltdown with subsequent high unemployment and shrinking government revenues. This worsened a massive existing deficit.

    All efforts to correct these criical problems have been stymied for short term poitical gain-the nation be damned.

    Ciao, Z.

    Re: The Real Numbers

    seriously?

    Re: Kaimu

    pulse -

    You asked an important question, I think - "Why post publicly such ridiculous criticism of free, optional and easily avoidable content?" Especially when clearly so much effort goes into the post.

    Here's the answer. I want his insights to reach more people. I want him to appeal to a wider audience. Rough guess: half the readers here feel as I do, and half do not. I think with some style tweaks, he'd get to 90%, without losing one bit of content or authenticity in the process. And new readers would find his posts more accessible.

    I posted my opinion publicly so that others would be able to weigh in and either agree, or disagree so we could get a sense of the community on this - what I think is an important matter.

    Of course that is just my opinion - free, optional, easily avoided, and to some ridiculous. :)

    Re: the pony

    I read Kaimu's sound money every chance I get. I send the best to my friends and family.

    I don't always agree with Stephen. He is a human being and he has his biases like all of us. Many of them come from his experiences, some of which weren't as good as they could have been. His bias against unions is largely the result of his station as a contractor and a pretty militant local IBEW. If he were a contractor in L.A. instead of S.F./Central California his experience might have been different. If you start with a contestive relationship it probably isn't going to get better. I have my biases as well, as my father was a IBEW electrician and I saw the other side of the show, so I happen to know not all union/business relationships are as Kaimu suggests. The other side if the matter is that some union electricians work their a$$es off and unions, in keeping abreast of increasing costs, actually have helped workers fight the affects of inflation. Stephen will argue that they only have high school educations, but that is largely irrelevant. most people have no clue about working with electricity or the national code, just as most people think medicine is magic. It's no more magic than growing orchids, but we aren't a society of renaissance people, we're a society of specialists. Frankly most people don't seem to be that curious. I'm not a doctor but it isn't a mystery to me and I can grow orchids and I built and wired a lot of buildings. People would say I'm "handy". No, I'm just curious. I think Bill's father was also an electrician and while he hasn't posted in a lot of detail I'll bet he is proud of his father and the work he did. It's mainly a result of a point of view. If you are a hammer, every problem is a nail. Stephen was a contractor and his problems seemed to be workers, architects, suppliers, contracts and other contractors. We all have those biases.

    This week a lot of time was spent on discussing the medical plan and taxes. I think what is missing is the other side if the ledger. What does it cost US if we don't have a plan? I'll use an example.
    My mother is in an assisted living facility. She had an incident where she couldn't get to her regular doctor for a simple bladder infection, so they sent her to the hospital. They call an ambulance ($900) to drive her about three miles to the ER. Because they don't have universal computerized records they have no idea she is a dementia patient and has been to the other local hospital and so they run a battery of tests AGAIN. Some of these test are very expensive. They admit her into the hospital and figure out she has a bladder infection but they want to keep her overnight for observation. She is there for two nights before they send her back to the assisted living facility via ambulance again (another $900). The total for the hospital? $24,000.
    YES, you are reading that right! $24K! For a bladder infection. Now just push that a little and imagine what it costs the taxpayers when someone without insurance and who can't pay the bill ends up in the ER. WE STILL PAY THE BILL. If we had a single payer system we could pool all of the costs, we could set limits on charges like they do everywhere else in the world, we would have a common computer database to determine what treatments have been performed at other medical facilities, and we would all have access to less expensive day clinics instead of relying on ER's for simple problems like bladder infections or using the ER for regular medical care. If it is really serious the clinic could send you to an ER and the ER's would save on repeated testing.
    This is the other side of the medical argument. Yes it costs money to provide coverage to everyone. But this is the oil change argument. Yes, it costs money to change the oil in your car, but not changing the oil will cost a LOT MORE.

    So I recommend Sound Money and I'm glad Stephen takes the time to CARE and to try to inform everyone about our ridiculous monetary system. He is certainly right about our unsound fiat money. Yes, sometimes Stephen gets into his rants, but I find they are generally very informative. I'm smart enough to see the other side of some of the discussion (as I think we all are) and a lot of the time I totally agree with him and pass the whole article on to everyone on my e-mail list.

    'Kaimu' is passionate. Without passion what would we all do? It simply means he cares enough to try to engage us all in something he thinks we should care about, something that will change and improve our lives. I easily forget about some of the differences and biases and instead I concentrate on the real content, which is quite valuable. I hope this post wasn't TOO wordy. No doubt it was. LOL!

    Re: Kaimu

    davefairtex
    Thanks for elucidating my thoughts far better than I can. When I'm short of time, I skip kaimu's lengthy epistles (I'm part of the choir, so don't need converting) while wishing I didn't have to.

    Re: The Real Numbers

    Grym,

    Re: "As Bill points out, those in the global control seats are playing us for suckers"

    In effect that is the case, but I don't think it is the primary intent. We are merely pawns in their struggle to achieve whatever power or business objectives they have.

    Several years ago, I opined here that the elitists were now up against their greatest foe, that being the Wed, which is a network modeled many-to-many structure capable of usurping power for the masses who use it, and a system far more powerful that the hierarchically modeled relationship modeled one-to-many system, like broadcasting, which the elitists control and use against the masses.

    Now people are beginning to see this play out. The most egregious elitist behavior, like exists in the Middle East, has broken down under what the mainstream media like to refer to as social networks, but is in fact just the web and the common people who use it, not being dictated to, but rather sharing information, ideas, opportunities, etc, for the betterment of society.

    We have come a long way in the past ten years and we still have much ground to cover. The next step is web TV, and I personally will be involved with kaimu in helping develop that platform.

    Our present situation looks deplorable partly because the web now helps make it transparent. Sunlight finally. In the future, our good health. It is inevitable thanks to the web and the internet.

    Re: Kaimu

    pulse - "I'm with him" (Les points finger at davefairtex)

    A little memoire I'm rereading over now that is pertinent here:

    "I believe that the public wants to be led, to be instructed, to be told what to do. They want reassurance. They will always move en masse, a mob, a herd, a group, because people want the safety of human company. They are afraid to stand alone because they want to be safely included within the herd, not to be the calf standing on the desolate, dangerous, wolf-patrolled prairie of contrary opinion"

    Jesse Livermore

    http://bit.ly/3ZkYr

    My own understanding gained from university is that the academic code of ivory tower research papers (which I was admittedly good at decoding) was not the way forward to helping others. I found in Aikido the way to practice with others. I find in this blog a way to share with others.

    3 dollar shysters abound on the net, in radio, business and politics and they play a very savvy communication game. Kaimu has something important to share, but I know if I have difficulty reading it so will others and that prairie of contrary opinion is so easily avoided.

    Re: Kaimu

    pulse,

    Right On !

    Regards,
    BH

    Re: Kaimu

    davefairtex -

    I would miss Kaimu's contributions to my personal education. I prefer unedited communications and fight the tyranny of the politically correct and 'something for nothing' squids at each opportunity.

    Wisdom arrives when we realize our own principles are not absolute and we are in fact often in need of some polish to our own presentations.

    Just my opinion : If personal style becomes the talking point, the talk becomes personal and should be communicated personally!

    pulse

    Re: The Real Numbers

    NIA is a cover to pimp penny stocks... look at the founders both I believe have been charged (one being the youngest ever) with pump and dump... hard to take them seriously

    http://www.slate.com/id/2298195/

    Re: the pony

    I'm in the camp that the Kaimu's full court press is necessary and valuable macro backdrop. If it slips from our awareness, we are not properly armed to invest. It won't matter until it does, which it will some day. Just look at the postings today on the loss of purchasing power of the USD since 2008. These two are corelated. Soldier on Kaimu

    Re: the pony

    Craig,

    Don't take me wrong way but let me pose this question. If YOU had to pay the cost out of your own pocket, would your mothers Bladder infection treatment cost 24K? Of course not. You would make sure she got the treatment that was needed and taken reasonable steps to make sure it happened. The problem is that we are too removed from the problems and added layers of bureaucracy, be it polititions, unions or mandated insurance, just makes it impossible.

    PS-I love the rants from Kaimu. Passion, is probably a better word, for some of the wrongs and spinners of truth he see's out there.

    EU-rating agencies war heats up

    (EU) EU Regulatory ministers note that a suspension on ratings from ratings agencies could be implemented for those countries receiving bailouts
    - Reminder: The EU commission earlier had called for a break up of ratings agencies and claimed ratings agencies are generating uncertainty, not clarity; noted Moody's Portugal decision highlights the questionable decisions of the ratings agencies

    Re: Kaimu

    This idea about the herd may be true, but in using the quote from Livermore we see that the crowd is sometimes wrong. Crowds and herds may have been useful to survival in our past. Even now if someone starts shooting a crowd serves it's original purpose as it does sheep, birds and schools of fish, but in trading and investing the herd mentality must be factored in and guarded against. We must all capture trends to trade, and trends are the behavior of crowds, herds, but the trick is always to see when the crowd has gotten too far ahead of itself or is changing direction.

    Then there are leaders. They are business owners, military leaders, statesmen, and yes, some union and social leaders and inventors. These people aren't worried about crowds, they lead crowds but largely unintentionally.

    The crowds always think these people are too blustery, take too many chances, are unafraid to stand on the wolf invested prairie. When these leaders look at the prairie, they don't see wolves, they see the danger of the crowd, the mob. both are very dangerous.

    If it weren't for Bill and Kaimu who have been unafraid to stand out in front of the crowd, where might some of us be? I know I would be less wealthy.
    I knew from experience that our monetary system and society were broken, but knowing and acting are two different things. This morning I made more in the amateur half hour than I used to make in a week. In large part I thank Bill, Kaimu, Patrick and Geoff and a lot of people here and elsewhere. They stood apart from the crowd and combined with a little prudence on my part they contributed to a better understanding of this whacky world we live in.

    I think we should seek out the prairie of contrary opinion and we shouldn't hold any opinion so dearly as to make us blind to the dangers of both the crowd and the barren prairie. How many people do we all know and love that have no clue what we are talking about when we bring up the subject of monetary policy, inflation and deflation? I know perfectly intelligent people that like most Americans still cling to the notion of inflation being caused solely by supply and demand. Now THAT is a dangerous crowd.

    Re: Kaimu

    After reading each "Sound Money" I find myself wanting more Kaimu; not less. And yes, that includes what some here refer to as rants. Someone in today's financial world certainly needs to rant considering what a road to disaster we are all on at this point. Nowhere else have I ever seen explanations of Fed and financial issues spelled out as clearly as those of Kaimu.

    Personally, I'm waiting for "Kaimu/Sound Money the Book" and the accompanying lecture tour. I'd paid good money for both.

    Kaimu's Sound Money is one of the highlights of being part of the Cara Community.

    Re: The Real Numbers

    And Zerohedge founder was charged with insider trading and banned from trading activities... yet a lot of people take the site seriously. Shrug.

    Re: the pony

    "If YOU had to pay the cost out of your own pocket, would your mothers Bladder infection treatment cost 24K?"

    If it were paid privately it would have, with all of the other hospital visits, bankrupted my mother. To be clear, I live in Washington State and my mom lives in California near my younger brother. She, like a lot of other elderly people, doesn't have a lot of family to care for her or they are very busy trying to keep their heads above water. In this case my brother works on the movie business and he was in a remote location and unavailable. It was also a weekend.
    My example was more to illustrate how much it costs for the uninsured to use ER's for medical care when as you correctly point out, just using a regular doctor would be at most, a couple hundred bucks. My mom had insurance, so imagine what it might have really cost without an insurance company contract controlling the costs!
    Just imagine what all those uninsured people are costing us.
    They don't go to regular doctors for a couple hundred bucks. They don't have an insurance company contract controlling that cost. They wait until they are VERY sick and then they end up in the ER at insane costs to the taxpayer.

    simply having a single payer or even a semi-private system like they do in Germany would save us billions of dollars and we would have better care and better health.

    I have more examples, and I'm sure others here do too.
    A simple one: My wife goes to get a mammogram. they goof up her insurance card info and we get the bill for $475. They send us this form asking if we qualify for low income help. We call them and ask, WTF are you doing, we HAVE INSURANCE. They re-bill the insurance company and the insurance company pays the entire thing, 100%. THEIR COST??? $156.

    So I ask everyone.....what other service or industry do you know that can charge one person $156 and another identical customer $475?

    Why do we tolerate it? We should demand a simple pay scale and a simple billing system with fair pricing for everyone. Right now the medical system makes Wall Street look honest.

    Re: VHC- breakout potential

    rocking now 37 up 13.5%, be careful if got in on morning note.

    Re: The Real Numbers

    Bill,

    In general I concur, the web is indeed an excellent tool for "getting the word out". But, like any tool, it is open to misuse, and we much be on alert for distortions or false information. Imagine what Goebels could have done with it.

    Last night I watched a bit of a program about 9/11 conspiracy theories. Some allegations, based on erroneous comments, are on the web — never to be erased — even though the words of the originator were later clarified (a 180 degree difference in meaning).

    I often remind myself how a few years ago an interview by Ron Ansana on CNBC was intercepted, deliberately altered to reverse the meaning and rapidly passed several blogs before a disclaimer was issued.

    Truth is a sacred and delicate thing which the unscrupulous will try to squelch.

    Grym

    Re: Kaimu

    ah, "brevity is the soul of wit", yet I respect the value of "dealer's choice".

    I offer only one chart here:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPT2YR...

    Re: Kaimu

    ah, "brevity is the soul of wit", yet I respect the value of "dealer's choice".

    I offer only one chart here: Portugal CDS
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPT2YR...

    Re: Kaimu

    ah, "brevity is the soul of wit", yet I respect the value of "dealer's choice".

    I offer only one chart here: Portugal CDS
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPT2YR...

    Re: Kaimu

    In my book, kaimu is a true gem.

    If readers don't have the patience to understand the complex shenanigans of U.S. Treasury accounting that he so kindly deciphers in as condense posts as possible for us here, I would only assume they are the types that consistently bounce checks in their own balance sheets on a regular basis like my mother. No time for such trivial pursuits?

    I'm back from Costa Rica with some insights when time permits include the brand spankin' new issuance of 1000 Colones PLASTIC notes! The first of their kind.

    Stop the whinging and learn to love the bomb.

    Cheers.

    Re: The Real Numbers

    Duplicate

    Re: the pony

    Craig;

    I love the blend on these two topics of sound money and the medical systems. We have a much different system here in Canada. I was fortunate enough to experience a 'blended' hospitalization 3 years ago for a hernia operation. I had to pay (partially) and was impressed by the thorough efficiencies versus the criminally lacking level of care provided in the 'public' portion of my experience. I was back at work in 3 days (2 of those on the weekend) versus a 6 week absence for an associate who had gone the pure 'public' route (naturally he was compensated by his union's insurance policy.)

    The future demands on the public system are unsustainable. We have the ability to prolong life (quality - no) with great cost. I have read that 80% of the average health care costs will be consumed in the last year of a person's life. Yet, who will deny the 'hope' of life extension. There must be blind restraints placed on infinite desire.

    Of course no shrewd politician will touch this hot point. They lack moral fibre and we continue to be deceived. Because of our inability to confront realities (in Canada, 20% are employed in the public sector - wonderful pensions and extended health care benefits, of course) the wolves are many and prepared to consume all the sheep, not realizing they themselves will soon starve.

    The heart of the matter is the exploitation of savers and overpowering obfuscations of our modern system of irredeemable currency by putting the bill to the next generation. This is enabled by the seemingly endless capacity to create new 'money' by the privileged class. When we allow others to 'secure' our future we lose the joy of responsibility and accomplishment. We have been deceived on a grand scale and are being led to division by those who have created this all consuming beast.

    We are stealing the future from our children by ignoring natural bounds and demanding we pursue infinite. This, of course, leads to zero.

    "The ceremony involves the poling across a lake of a small boat containing an effigy of Care (called "Dull Care"). Dark, hooded figures receive from the ferryman the effigy which is placed on an altar, and, at the end of the ceremony, set on fire. This "cremation" symbolizes that members are banishing the "dull cares" of conscience"

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cremation_of_Care

    pulse

    Re: The Real Numbers

    Bill,

    In general I concur, the web is indeed an excellent tool for "getting the word out". But, like any tool, it is open to misuse, and we must be on alert for distortions or false information. Imagine what Goebbels could have done with it.

    Last night I watched a bit of a program about 9/11 conspiracy theories. Some allegations, based on erroneous comments, are on the web — never to be erased — even though the words of the originator were later clarified (a 180 degree difference in meaning).

    Honest people can be honestly mistaken and we will certainly never all agree, but truth is a sacred and delicate thing which the unscrupulous will try to alter or squelch.

    I often remind myself how a few years ago an interview by Ron Ansana on CNBC was intercepted, deliberately altered to reverse the meaning and rapidly passed to several blogs before a disclaimer was issued.

    Free and open discussion which we have here is probably the best venue, but here is no cure-all, IMO.

    Grym

    Re: the pony

    Craig;

    duplicate

    Re: The Real Numbers

    "hard to take them seriously"

    Right. We should trust the government numbers as the absolute truth.

    [sarcasm off]

    Re: The Real Numbers

    Vad... no longer read ZH... thought I would share info about a site gaining popularity (probably ZH fans) which isn't what it seems... nothing more... shrug

    Server issues

    We had to shut down the RSI Function in order to stop the demands on the server from crashing it. We will look for a better solution for the future.

    Sigh

    Just reminding myself, I am trading with machines, not other humans. Maybe we need the machines on the blog chat.

    Re: The Real Numbers

    Bill... not advocating govt data either... the issue I was attempting to highlight was the lack of transparency via the tweet by Lindsey Lohan which she was paid but publicized as her own opinion... the Slate article was revealing imo...

    Re: the pony

    Interesting. I have some friends that went to Germany for a spinal surgery that isn't performed here in the U.S. because insurance companies won't cover it. A couple but the wife needed the surgery.

    In Germany it is a hybrid system. They have insurance companies but doctor schooling is paid by the state and therefore they have their compensation (and liability, etc.) set by the state. The state sets rates for insurance based on income and everyone is covered. All children are covered as they are considered a precious resource. The insurance companies are there only to administer. It's obviously good enough care that people from the U.S. go there for some procedures.

    My friends were very impressed with the level of care and attention to detail from janitorial care up to the nurses, doctors, surgeons, etc. The hospital was in a small town and they said the care was very impressive and comprehensive. They also were more than impressed with all of Germany, very modern, clean and efficient.
    They noted some interesting differences with America. Since they were only visiting they wanted to get some paper plates, plastic utensils, plastic cups, etc. They simply do not sell them in Germany. All plastic containers are recycled and the store you buy them from has recycling in front of the store.
    They said nearly every building has solar panels and of course the autobahn, roads and highways were awesome.
    Their impression as Americans is that we are falling further and further behind and all the talk about "we are number one" is a tragic joke.

    We surely need to take the best of what works elsewhere and use the best examples to our advantage. We can and should do much better and sometimes that means using better systems than supposed "free markets". There are instances where social democracy is more efficient, less expensive and has better outcomes. We foolishly stick to our ideology while paying more than any other modern country for care and living with much poorer outcomes and incomplete coverage.

    Re: The Real Numbers

    Here is a segment from this week's Hussman commentary which could use some "real numbers" consideration.

    "...the Fed changed its accounting a few months ago to allow such losses to show up as a "negative liability" - basically consuming interest that the Fed receives on the Treasury debt it holds, which would normally be remitted back to the Treasury for public benefit (yet another example of altering accounting rules to effectively allow insolvency).

    There's also a creepy line item that recently reappeared on the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet, called "U.S. Treasury, supplementary financing account" which basically represents proceeds of government borrowing that the Treasury transmits directly to the Federal Reserve. That account had its origins during the height of the financial crisis, where it grew to about $300 billion before it was unwound. As economist James Hamilton noted at the time, the novel line item on the Fed's balance sheet was accompanied by a "rather obscure" press release by the Treasury, noting:

    " The Treasury Department announced today the initiation of a temporary Supplementary Financing Program at the request of the Federal Reserve. The program will consist of a series of Treasury bills, apart from Treasury's current borrowing program, which will provide cash for use in the Federal Reserve initiatives."

    Needless to say, the Treasury probably cannot do much more with this until the debt ceiling is raised, but we wonder to what extent the public, or even most members of Congress, are aware of this provision at all."

    http://hussmanfunds.com/weeklyMarketComment.html

    "Negative Liability"? Talk about "Truth"...
    So much for Congressional oversight. "Overlooked" is a better heading.

    Note: Hussman has increased his gold holdings to 18%.

    Grym

    Today might not be a bad day to ring the register some

    I would book some profits in equities here and either park it in cash or maybe even buy some 10 year paper.

    The tape is starting to feel a little staged. Everyone is watching the same technical levels, the volume is weak and earnings uncertainty will soon be upon us.

    I'd sell into this strength today and look to re-load once we have some earnings visibility.

    GL to all.

    Two interpretations: Breadth

    Coming in today, 1 of 500 SPX stocks was oversold by stochastics (ETR)...yet the percentage of stocks above the 40 day average was only about 70%

    Interpretation 1: not maximally overbought (relative to moving averages) and strong impetus for pullback buying

    Interpretation 2: overbought at high end of rally, and mean reversion likely.

    The five day advance-decline breadth was among the highest I've ever seen, so I'm inclined to choose (2), although not loading up any imaginary trucks.

    Ryan Gold (RYG.V)

    Was wondering if anyone had stumbled across this story? The company was created in a reverse takeover of privately run Ryan Gold by Valdez Gold in early 2010. Ryan Gold was majority owned by Shawn Ryan who is credited with a lot of early gold discoveries in the Yukon, including Kinross' White Gold project (acquired in the Underworld acquisition). The new publicly listed Ryan Gold has claims to 133,000 hectares in the Yukon and has locked up a 5-year deal with Shawn Ryan to run the company - he also personally owns a 1% NSR on the properties still. They managed to close on a $52M CAD financing in May and also Osisko owns a large stake in the company (was 10% but not sure off hand if it was diluted by the recent financing). Anyways, seems to have a jockey, nice land package and now a nice swath of cash to start progressing exploration.

    Anyone else taken a look at this? Yukon has been a hotbed recently (see ATAC Resources!)

    Re: The Real Numbers

    edit

    Buying another Breakout in PII

    working best in dull market.

    Buying another Breakout in PII

    working best in dull market.

    Re: The Real Numbers

    Grym,

    I am not a supporter of Obama but I am less of a supporter of Bush. Obamas' economic stimulus hurt the dollar but fighting two wars has hurt the dollar worse than the stimulus. I am glad to see us leaving both areas but I am unhappy with Obama giving a timetable to those we have opposed. It is time for the United States to have a president who is a leader, we haven't had one of those in 50 or 60 years.

    Re: the pony

    I've lived and worked here 7+ years now, and it is kind of nice. In addition to what you wrote regarding the health care, education, and "green" views, I also like the rules against making noise late at night (after 10PM), so I never have to put up with loud music or teenagers hanging out on corners, things like that. I'm sure there is a level of crime in the bigger cities like Frankfurt of Berlin, but in the residential towns and villages, there is a strong sense of respect for personal and public property. I also have no fear of myself or my family using public transportation late at night.

    It is not a perfect society, and there is a price to pay (16% sales tax, income taxes as high as 35% in some cases). Energy is expensive, and that includes natural gas as well as oil (which is generally high everywhere). Generally, they manage to keep things efficient and orderly. We're pretty happy here. Also the beer is very good and a culture in and of itself.

    Re: The Real Numbers

    mayhem, last real leader was JFK imo...

    Re: the pony

    I understand your brothers situation. My wife and I have "good" insurance. She needed had a brain tumor and the insurance company gave us a bad time but eventually paid most of the bills. An example of the disparity of cost is a CAT scan cost $3,500 each, my wife needed 7 of them. We were billed full price but the insurance company paid them less than $1000 each and the bill was settled.

    People talk about Obamacare rationing the care a patient can have. How about the insurance company saying my wife was only entitled to 2 days in the hospital after brain surgery. She needed 7 days in the hospital neurosurgery intensive care and left the hospital before the plug in her skull had hardened.

    Re: the pony

    Been a long time since I was in Germany... lived four years from ages 8-12... learned to ski there, rode my first train, visited my first nude beach (with friends not parents), great bakeries and chocolate and many other firsts at that young age...

    What I remember most was getting in trouble for making too much noise one Sunday and people always sweeping the street in front of their home...

    Re: The Real Numbers

    Let's agree with the basic details on the wars and ask the following.
    1. what does any President (or politician) do when his base doesn't agree with what he/she does?

    2. Didn't GW, already in a 'jobless' recovery when 9/11 happened and attempting to sell the tax cuts as the answer to unemployment along with juicing real estate, essentially use the military as stimulus? We have 2.5 million men and women around the world, as Kaimu rightly suggests, 'breaking windows' in the military. Obama sent even more to Afghanistan. What might they do for employment when and if they come back?

    Let's really look at this, timeline aside. ALL politicians from both parties are fully aware of how serious our problems are and unless they act to rein in American corporations, import tariffs and taxation for American listed corporations at home and abroad (IOW commit political suicide) we are done like dinner. Both of the Roosevelt's knew this and FDR valued the hatred of the bankers and Wall Street and used it to his advantage. TR busted the Trusts and said, "Walk softly and carry a big stick."
    I'm reminded of the Capone movie where he bashes one of his mafioso's in the back of the head with a baseball bat.....
    Regardless, both Roosevelt's used the military and military actions and wars as stimulus.
    I can't think of one President that hasn't in my lifetime except Carter, and how do a lot of people remember him?

    Obama's decision isn't so much a military one and he isn't unique in that aspect. It's political and economic. We should also ask why we are in Afghanistan. Does anyone really believe it's about the Taliban and Al Queda at this point?
    I sure hope we aren't that naive.

    Re: the pony

    I will add... my wife had severe back pain (entire family has same issue)... long story short she saw four different docs: family to get the referral to spinal, met with Nurse Prac of spinal doc, met with spinal doc, spinal referred her to physical therapist, met with physical therapist for eval, has the fifth appointment to finally start treatment... and they called her to reschedule

    Two months, 4 appointments w/ 3 Xrays, 2 MRIs, 4 co-pays, 4 separate charges, and nothing was ever done... nothing except an RX given... after researching we found effective home treatment and she has been fine since... again 4 appointments and nothing but evals (redundant) were performed... never have looked at the HC system the same

    Re: Sigh

    Have you been watching RIG today ? Un- frigging real... gotta get me some of those quant's machines... hmmmm, lets see... yeah, $ 20 mil. ought to do it....!

    Re: the pony

    Yes, my friend that went to Germany had the same endless run around here. What they all want to do because of course it's less expensive for the insurance companies, is to fuse vertebrae. There was one Dr. that would do replacement, but since insurance co's don't pay for more than one nobody here does the surgery or bothers to learn. The best in the world was in Germany.
    She had four successfully replaced and is an inch taller now. Her husband is a good friend for about 35 years and he wants us to go to vacation there as he loved the bakeries (four in a small town) and he said the beer (from a local Monastery that's been making it for hundreds of years) was out of this world.
    He said the fuel prices were high but manageable and the highways and hospitals were worth it. Also the people were very friendly and helpful. He was surprised that German cars were quite affordable but some Germans told him to go to Italy as they were less there. Overall it sounded pretty good.

    Re: The Real Numbers

    "mayhem, last real leader was JFK imo..."

    Yeah, since JFK only lost 58,209 U.S. soldiers in Vietnam by doubling troops in '61 and '62 while engineering a potential nuclear holocaust by failing to overthrow Cuba at the Bay of Pigs in '61 which led to the Cuban Missile Crisis in '62 ... positively brilliant real deal leadership that taught us all to stop worrying and love the bomb. At least he channeled the Atlas ICBM warhead into a hell ride for the first astronauts that eventually led to the man on the moon. More Caligula; less Julius Caesar.

    Re: Sigh

    I wonder about the chicken or the egg. Okay, so you need higher priced, really liquid stocks to do this.

    What starts the game? For example, you could program a stochastics overbought (e.g. 8,3,3 >= 80) and a downcross of the eight period avg of the high (e.g 10 minute chart). As long as the action doesn't cross the eight period EMA of the high by 'x' percent, you stay short and then pile on every time stochastics crosses down.

    I surely am not saying that's the ALGO, it does make you wonder.

    Re: Sigh

    Folks, RIG simply had news...

    Another Sideways Day

    For the major indices...but look at Silver Wheaton go.

    I would think this was primarily a "sit on your hands" day with exceptions.

    Waiting for a thumbs up or down.

    Re: GORO

    "The Barron's article on GORO was a complete hatchet job"

    Indeed, they just confirmed record mineral production, revenue and earnings.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-Resource-confir...

    Re: Sigh

    Welcome to Davy Jones locker. I must be missing something on this one. Another Macondo maybe?

    Rob McEwen short 7 min. interview

    Discusses proposed merger of USgold and Minera Andes.Also still predicting $5000 gold price within approx 3 to 4 years.

    http://www.bnn.ca/News/2011/7/4/5000-gold-3-4-year...

    Re: the pony

    ALOHA!!

    CAPITAL MARKETS AND SOCIAL EQUITY; PERSPECTIVE AND DISCUSSION ...

    Re: the pony

    Huh?

    Canadian regulators to review TSE-listings from Emerging Markets

    http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip496169

    Securities lawyer Joe Groia is the best analyst to discuss the issues.

    Re: the pony

    Hi Kaimu, Your style is what makes you so unique. I too share your post with friends and relatives. Thanks for all your rational.
    Take care
    Earl

    Re: The Real Numbers

    mayhem,

    I have not been happy with a president for decades.

    I always thought Bush was a pushover for anyone who could stroke his ego. "You have problems just like Lincoln had during the Civil War, but you can hold the course and all will work out fine."

    Obama continued the worst policies of Bush and added to them with bailouts, legislation rammed through without proper debate and study and added a third war. He has forgotten more promises than most people make in a lifetime. And already spent more than all previous presidents combined.

    Clinton was all about Clinton, Geo. H.W Bush seemed rudderless and no one has cared a rip about the middle class American for so long they don't seem to notice there is little left to tax there, but still refuse to tax the fat cats.

    Don't expect Obama to pull all the troops from any of the three war zones until just before the election. If nothing else he is a consummate politician and campaigner. He knows voters have short memories and bringing them home before that would not assure him enough credit. The bin Laden boost has already faded even though he reminded us a week or two ago saying at a personal appearance, "Well, I been busy gettin' bin Laden and releasein' the petroleum reserves."

    I guess all is relative because I find myself beginning to admire (well, tolerating) some of the past ones I never liked when in office much more with some of the losers we've had lately ;-)

    Grym

    ALTI, Les

    Les, didn't you own this at one time? It was up 26% today from pretty low. I don't know for why but I'm back to even on it.
    Regards
    Earl

    Re: The Real Numbers

    Dr.,

    Eisenhower brought the Korean War to and end though inconclusive and refused to send troops to bail out the FRench in
    Dien Bien Phu.

    "The President decided to cut off the movement for deeper involvement by stating clearly and precisely the conditions under which he would sanction sending American combat soldiers to Vietnam. He set out three preconditions: first, the troops would have to be from allied forces sent in approximately equal numbers by at least America, Britain, and Australia; second, the French would have to promise unconditional independence to the people of Indochina; and, third, the United States Congress would have to declare war."

    I have a friend (retired Army Lt. Col 2 tours in Viet Nam) who told me when Bush decided to invade Iraq, "We should do what needs doing with Special Ops. It isn't worth a major action."

    And after ten years who got bin Laden? (His son has been to Iraq 2 times and Afghanistan once now.)

    Grym

    AMZN and Valuations

    I am beginning to find it extremely hard to rationalize the valuations on a lot of these high fliers. I feel like there is no way this is gonna last with these high flier momentum stocks....AMZN is a $97 Billion company trading at 90 times earnings. What exactly are people banking on from AMZN? I understand it's a great company and a leading internet retailer, but this valuation is a bit ridiculous.

    Re: The Real Numbers

    I think Grym is onto something here.

    Most Presidents are stuck with the actions of previous Presidents and politicians. Could there have been communist domino theory if Truman had listened to Patton and finished the USSR after defeating Germany and Japan in WWII when we had the clear advantage? Would there have been a Korean War? (police action?). Viet Nam? Cuba? West/East Germany?

    In hind sight there are always a lot of 'what-ifs'. What might have happened if Nixon shaved and beat Kennedy? Would we have had Watergate or something else?
    A nuclear exchange with the USSR? Who knows!
    Clearly we can see Obama just continued GW's policies. Change? Oh puleeese!
    Obama is about as socialist left wing as Reagan or Nixon.

    Re: The Real Numbers

    I think you should give these people in the White House a little credit. How much actual control do they really have? They listen, they guide, they select movers and shakers who then select movers and shakers and all down the line, not one of them having much impact on the big picture, and not, obviously, for a long time after they are put in place. The govt is a machine that is probably a 100 times less maneuverable than the largest tanker ship on the ocean. Even in business, say you are a CEO parachuted in to a 50,000 employee company. How much change can you really make, and how quickly? I say not much. There is probably an Asst VP somewhere in India that calls the shots on a materially crucial labor situation, or a supplier in Cambodia you never heard of until you tried to cut back there, or employment contracts that would take five years to put a dent into, etc, etc. On the outside, all these matters look simple. On the inside, each of them have a life of their own and not even the commander in chief had better screw with them. So, all I'm saying is that maybe Obama or Bush or Clinton are given too much credit for the successes or the failures on their watch. I believe that to be the case. Only when it came down to one teacher and one student have I ever found the dynamics of the matter to be simple, and only when I happened to be one of the two involved.

    See the Post-Close Report

    Above.

    Sigh: This is the kind of Bull S**t news that Bill talks about

    and how it is used as an unfair ( illegal ) leverage tool > http://budsoffshoreenergy.wordpress.com/2011/07/06...

    Re: The Real Numbers

    I agree with you Bill. That was more or less what I was saying. For the most part they play the cards they are dealt by their predecessors and theirs, and so on. Then they have to deal with the congress. They do have some control over administration of the executive branch, but as you say it has it's limitations.

    I've administered an 800 plus member not for profit corporation as a vice-president, and even with my total control over personnel and every piece of business making it's way across my desk there were always surprises and variables that could never be accounted for or predicted. And I had to have a great working relationship with my President and Board of Directors to do anything. The best I could do was have a reliable list of people I could count on which took some time to develop but I was lucky to have. I can imagine administering the federal government but it boggles the mind to consider the variables and detail.

    I did it for seven years and the budget for the coming year was set by the previous slate of officers and directors. When I stepped down the incoming officers and Board had to manage with what they were left by me just as I had to adapt to what the board previous to me left, which was essentially bankruptcy. Actually we were quite in debt. I left them after seven years with a full treasury and a perpetually funded 501c(3). So I can only imagine what Obama had to deal with, but I do know I would have made some different choices and I would probably have been more aggressive and less liked by some people, but I wouldn't have taken the job to be popular or re-elected.

    In the current situation, were I President, I would be despised by the opposing party but the regular work a day people would know I have their back. I was at times in my previous job and I stepped on some powerful toes representing my organization.
    However, now eleven years later they still call me and ask if I'll run for VP or President again. People love leaders that do their job and accomplish what the members vote to accomplish and they don't mind a little rhubarb now and again if the job gets done. I would advise Obama to adopt more of TR's attitude and less attorney like compromise. The people like a President that wields a big stick in their defense, but he has to make his case and then go for it, he can't pussy foot around like he has been.

    One of Flecks best interviews

    Re: The Real Numbers

    To the good Dr.,

    Slow down and take a breath... LBJ escalated the war tenfold as the first act of his presidency and is responsible for most of the 58,000+ US casualties... JFK displayed courage yet to be duplicated since:

    On June 4, 1963, President John F. Kennedy signed Executive Order No. 11110 that returned to the U.S. government the power to issue currency... order gave the U.S. Treasury power "to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury"... brought nearly $4.3 billion in U.S. notes into circulation... Kennedy was assassinated just five months later, no more silver certificates were issued.

    Ten days before his assassination, President John Fitzgerald Kennedy allegedly said to a Columbia University class on Nov. 12, 1963: "The high office of the President has been used to foment a plot to destroy the American's freedom and before I leave office, I must inform the citizen of this plight."

    We will not agree on this one... have a coke and a smile

    Presidents are puppets

    eom

    Re: Presidents are puppets

    This hallowed high office became irredeemably corrupt from the second half of the first term of FDR. Politics of this first 'Imperium' has like entropy only increased into that grey hole where money overtly trumps blood. We have allowed the creation of a vast shylockrocy that winnows pennies from the common man for each breath that he is forced 'freely' to take!

    We have devolved into a system of pushme pullyou Demuplicans that have allowed the rape of the treasury while coining ever more debt chits to distribute to quell the potential for civil unrest during their watch. It cannot last.

    When the 'Great Reckoning' arrives, I hope I shall be dead.

    Good luck to you whippersnappers everywhere!

    Post-close Report

    Patrick said "If the market wants to go higher who are we to argue – being adaptable and flexible in your strategy will allow you to get in synch with the primary movements making the goal of consistent profitability much easier to attain."

    I'm allowed back in the sand pit today and there are lots of good looking setups out there ready to bust a move if this market really wants higher. As always wishing I'd gotten greedy with SLW and bought beaucoup calls to average out with.

    Total breadth is pulling back even as the indexes hold their ground so hopefully a continuation of this behaviour into close of week and then we are perhaps ready to continue the advance, once NYMOT is a little more neutral. As always, wait and see.

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    Ambrose is back

    and funnily enough his first topic since returning is the same as his last post before taking leave - Europe.

    I do enjoy his acid tongue and the EU's declared war on Moody's is illustrative of the machinations of state that will continue until their house of cards collapse. Moody's "financial vandalism" in Portugal means that large institutional players will have to say "no mas" meaning the EU taxpayer will have to pony up even more.

    All the while Germany's High Court is due to give a ruling soon on the legality of these subsidies Germany is doling out to save themselves. Euro currency weakness is likely to increase heading into that ruling. We shall see

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/86215...

    From an earlier dated posting Ambrose quotes the BIS in suggesting $2.5T bank exposure to this debt issue, so it is clear why Europe chose one of their own to run the IMF circus and why they are weighing in so heavily on debt and currency markets. This is one contagion they cannot collectively afford. So as Bill has been pointing out, it'll be monetized at all costs.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/ba...

    I'd suggest to Kaimu a new posting entitled "pimp my gold stocks" but we know how well he is doing here already :)

    Re: Kaimu

    In quoting Livermore's use of the "crowd" or "herd" I was pointing out the Taoist relations to others, which Vad has gone to so much trouble to write. Useful understanding for helping us stand alone with a contrary and hopefully profitable position in the marketplace - yes it is!

    However, my interest remains in thinking about where do we go from here? I understand the gist of Kaimu's premise and as a global citizen am not particularly concerned by the latest US treasury statement - for others that can be important to learn and remain updated on. As remarked elsewhere a little tweaking of the presentation could definitely improve "market penetration" of the message.

    But where do we go from here? Back to a gold standard? Won't work. We've been here before and after a couple of generations greed sets in again and we repeat the follies of yesteryear. One only has to look at the degradation of the global environment since the last great depression to see that our present social and economic cycles are not advancing humanity's needs in a holistic manner. The Japanese Tsunami was illustrative of the degraded nature of the source of all life on this planet:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1374520/Ja...

    How many more generations can we continue this present economic, political and social folly?

    I remarked on Vad's work with the Tao so as to put a good natured challenge to everyone here. Read it. It has the immediate potential to improve one's trading. But this work on the Tao also has ethical implications for how we can be guided in the future and it's these issues that I'm mulling over in what little time I have to spare. The Fed, Treasury and Congress will all disappear at some point. But then I ask, what is next?

    My personal feeling is that no change will occur until we're standing on the cliff of our own extinction and then we might re-prioritize. And in these regards I stand with Kaimu. I wanna take this funny money from this casino and buy a piece of land and hunker down for what I am beginning to perceive is going to be a very difficult century.

    Re: The Real Numbers

    Edit

    Re: The Real Numbers

    Bill,

    I'm sure what you point out is so, Presidents act as a sort of lightning rod. The president Eisenhower example exhibits a time when a president put the onus for entry into another country's affairs squarely before the Congress — clear and specific requirements AND, something which Truman was the first to skirt with semantics (police action) a definite Congressional Declaration of War.

    Other presidents since then have gotten us into our most divisive and costly military situations by their individually "assumed powers" and Congress has allowed it.

    Congress is, IMO, the biggest single cause of our woes. The Founders simply could not envision (except for a few like Jefferson) the "professional politician" becoming so deeply entrenched and individually powerful. With no term limits, the ability to tie up bills in committee indefinitely, those immense power that financial control has amassed and centralized.

    The question is: Can the public manage to change things when it largely falls to those who are the culprits to reform themselves as a group? It seems to me to require a Constitutional change.

    Grym

    Re: The Real Numbers

    Craig,
    "The people like a President that wields a big stick in their defense, but he has to make his case and then go for it, he can't pussy foot around like he has been."

    BINGO!

    Grym

    Re: The Real Numbers

    Scott -

    You can't give all the credit to LBJ for the casualties. JFK escalated it first and LBJ second. I am aware of the silver certificate exec order and that's a good point. JFK did a lot of interesting things mostly shrouded in conspiracy theories related to his Camelot myth perpetuated to this day by the press and, obviously, his assassignation. Just last night was a program reviewing Kennedy family photos. Who gives a s$#&! But perhaps he could have fixed the currency. We'll never know. We are not in full disagreement on JFK.

    Cheers.

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