CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
[7:00am ET] Good morning.
I over-slept today but I can see that the headlines state "6th down week looks likely; US stock futures point lower a day after markets broke losing streak; economic fears persist" and "U.S. Stock-Index Futures Decline". The charts are NOT telling me that the market is headed south -- at least not right this minute, shortly after 8am ET -- so I guess it must be the powers that be.
For yesterday's trading, the Dow Jones World Stock Index ($DJW) shows a big increase in volume in the morning, driving up prices, and then nothing much after that. It seems like a good example of "painting lipstick on pigs".
In any case, the charts of JP Morgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) still look like pigs, so unless and until that situation looks bullish, I think any market bounce here could be of the 'dead cat' variety.
The key European banks and miners are mixed at this point.
Have a good day.
Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.
| Symbol | Name | Last Trade | Change | Related Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^ATX | ATX | 2,711.00 |
 21.00 (0.78%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^BFX | BEL-20 | 2,605.62 |
 10.12 (0.39%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FCHI | CAC 40 | 3,854.70 |
23.95 (0.62%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^GDAXI | DAX | 7,156.88 |
2.78 (0.04%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^AEX | AEX General | 336.95 |
1.09 (0.32%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^OSEAX | OSE All Share | 475.59 |
1.04 (0.22%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SMSI | Madrid General | N/A | 0.00 (0.00%) | Chart, More |
| ^OMXSPI | Stockholm General | 352.75 |
0.88 (0.25%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SSMI | Swiss Market | 6,249.17 |
21.84 (0.35%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FTSE | FTSE 100 | 5,844.61 |
11.73 (0.20%) |
Components, Chart, More |
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL
The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.
Enjoy your day.
Cara on Trends & Cycles
Vad's Catch of the Day
The best trade is when the whole plan is laid out in advance - and comes true as if it were a blueprint. Judge for yourself:
[10:26] {Threei} pullback to about .40 is likely, TZA
[10:26] where I'll try to find entry
[10:26] .60 break may leave us in dust but way too risky for entry
[10:30] {Threei} Long Setup: TZA .40 break
[10:30] stop under .30
[10:30] if works, let's try this:
[10:31] half out abround 1:1, 1/4 out near 1:2, then just trail stop
[10:31] first two parts out
[10:31] now, keep b/e stop for the last part
[10:32] and let's see if we get real run out of last piece
[10:33] SPY breakdown of 128 is what we need for this one to skyrocket
......
[11:08] {Threei} 1:10
[11:08] {Threei} my a$$ is out
Chart illustrates the narrative.
Kaimu's Sound Money
CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Good evening. Patrick here.
One word comes to mind describing the price action Friday: “ugly.” The modest advance yesterday evaporated quickly today (S&P-), equity prices gapping lower, never seeing the light of day. There was no particular trigger event, just motivated sellers waiting in the wings to unload inventory as soon as yesterday’s bounce began to lose momentum
The major market indexes have now relinquished most if not all of their yearly gains; hopefully support at S&P 1250 holds, a level so obvious and known by all, it might not be worth knowing when all is said and done.
We can identify levels of support but we don’t want to give our readers a false sense of security. As we pointed out last evening there has been no fear, no panic, and no capitulation. The VIX remains a teenager and too many of us are spending all our time looking to get long, conveniently ignoring the price action (lower highs and lower lows) as stock after stock rolls over from multi-month broadening top formations.
Even the shining star that is Apple (AAPL-1.74%) now trades below its closing price on the first trading day of 2011, certainly better than tech titans Cisco (CSCO-), Microsoft (MSFT-), and Hewlett Packard (HPQ-) a who’s who list of laggards nearer their bear market lows than bull market highs.
For the past two years as the market doubled off the 2009 bottom every dip was made for buying no matter how over-bought. Could it be going forward every morning blip up is the easy trade to fade?
Portfolio managers should be ready to defend S&P 1250; it is where the year began, well defined chart support, an area containing the 200-day moving average. Our concern is that after testing primary support a half-hearted rally attempt fizzles out at overhead resistance and prices rappel lower taking out 1250.
Over-sold markets that cannot rally are vulnerable to emotional panicky retreats, an innocuous decline often morphing into the real deal.
Put the defense on the field and live to fight another day; it looks to be a rocky road through quarters’ end.
Have a great weekend.
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Comments
Currency comparison
was surprised to see this correlation between Yen, CHF and to a lesser extent the Euro. Thinking I might drop the Yen short and hit UDN or FXE instead. A Greek referendum should show the Euro's true colours sometime this year me thinks.
Foreign Economic Numbers Released Today
Big swing in UK PPI input costs from 2.8% in April to -2% in May. YoY from 17.9% down to 15.7%
Industrial production YoY for the UK contracts from .1% to -1.2% in April.
Canada unemployment rate for May 7.4% from previous 7.6%
http://www.fx360.com/calendar/
Schäuble
Mexican standoff between ECB and German government. Private creditors must take a hit.
http://on.ft.com/l0FtMD
Gap Support and Demand Zones
A Look at the S&P 500 BY RYAN PUPLAVA CMT
"If we don’t break above 1296, we’re likely headed right down to the March demand zone between 1249 and 1260 where ultimately I think a lot of buying will step in. I’ve been hearing many strategists suggest that it’s not panic selling we’re seeing, but a lack of demand for stocks that is causing equity prices to fall. I have to agree."
http://financialsense.com/contributors/ryan-puplav...
I've read this scenario a few times now, so the contrarian in me says watch out, but I keep it in mind nonetheless. What is interesting to read here is the idea of a lack of demand. A couple of interesting charts and a focus on $VIX like Patrick did.
Re: Schäuble
Mark H,
"The German government on Friday signalled it would not back down in its stand off with the European Central Bank over the involvement of owners of Greek sovereign bonds in a new round of aid for the debt-ridden country.”
------------
Ah ha! Leave it to the Germans. I can't remember a German-made product I was ever disappointed in. Everything from Lugers to my six VWs was well designed, precise and functional.
Let's hope such a pragmatic view can spread and reverse the stupid economics fairytale we've been living.
Grym
Re: Gap Support and Demand Zones
Les,
This 1250-1260 area has been my major concern the last week or so and the reason I pretty much have gone to all cash and cash equivalents. Too many people relying on the buy the dip scenario here in my opinion that I can't justify taking the risk. Unlike the previous opportunities to buy the dip, this time I feel the FED actually has more to gain by letting this market flutter and building support for more QE. This is a stark contrast to the past couple years when the FED was essentially using the equity market as proof of the success of the first 2 QE efforts.
From a technical perspective, check out a chart of S&P500 using the 22, 45, and 90 day EMAs (a little method I have been using for awhile now and find much better than a more traditional 50,100,200 method).
http://tinyurl.com/3n3cehm
Last week, for the first time since May 2010, we had the 22 EMA cross below the 45 EMA when they were both above the 90 EMA. Of course, we all know that the market did a faceplant last May when this occurred and fell from the high around 1200 S&P back to almost 1000. Also of note is that the 90 EMA as of last week has peaked and started reversing for the first time since last summer. So, I am not trying to say the chart is a prediction of an absolutely certain decline, but to me is a huge flashing red warning sign, black swan mating season has just occured and the black mama swans are walking around with a gaggle of black baby swans!! Conditions have changed and this may not be the regular ole diparoony. Better to forgo a couple percent in performance than trying to dodge oncoming traffic.
Re: Schäuble
via Henderson Global Investors
"Greece's banks face a $32 billion funding gap over the next year should depositors continue to withdraw their money at the current pace, according to Henderson Global Investors. Deposits by businesses and households held in Greek banks have declined more than 17% since December 2009. While the lenders have been able to make up the shortfall by posting collateral at the ECB or calling in loans to foreign banks, they are running out of assets, said Simon Ward, Henderson's London-based chief economist. "The end game is a full-scale bank crisis, so at some point depositors will have to be stopped from withdrawing their funds," said Ward, who helps oversee Henderson's $100 billion of assets. "I can't see what is going to plug the gap. Any new money coming from the European Union or International Monetary Fund is going to be needed for government finances so there seems to be an additional requirement for the banking system."
Contrary Indicator?
Yesterday Larry Kudlow and Jimmy Rogers squared of on the markets. Kudlow is a ranting BULL. What could be a better contrary indicator?
What was not noted is Kudlow is talking trading while Rogers is talking investment.
"Larry, one day is not the market." — Rogers
Then in comes the Cavalry to back up Krudlow's argument." (Sound of the bugle charge!)
Theater — what CNBC is all about.
http://tiny.cc/wm3x4
Grym
CS says it’s time to revisit ArcelorMittal (MT.N)
From the CS report today: "Expect reacceleration in H2"
OUTPERFORM Industry Weighting: OVERWEIGHT CP: US$ 32.74 TP: US$ 49 CAP: US$ 50.7b
• Investment case: AM has been a chronic underperformer of late, as the steel cycle dipped in Q2 and risk appetite collapsed on macro slowdown fears. We believe the slowdown is over, and that an H2 growth rate acceleration suggests AM will see far stronger H2 2011E earnings relative to market expectations and relative to last year. The stock is in our view already pricing in the weakness of H2 2010, yet we believe a stronger scenario than this will emerge.
• Catalysts: As growth rates rebound we expect stronger steel prices and volumes post the traditional summer slowdown set in comparison with the deep destock of H2 2010. The scrap price in the US and Turkey is already rallying, steel prices, still weak in spot markets should be next in our view.
• Valuation: at c 6.4x 2012E pe and 4.2x 2011E EV/EBITDA there is significant value in the stock should the cycle rebound as we expect. While not the most structurally interesting play in the sector, the recent underperformance of AM versus many steel names as well as the miners suggests any upward correction in the equity could, however, be relatively significant and substantial. The price to book is reaching the lows of the Arcelor and ArcelorMittal era at a time when the ROE looks set to continue rising over the next years, again suggesting a mismatch of earnings versus valuation.
-----------------------------------
Re the European Metals & Mining industry group, CS has an OVERWEIGHT rating
They say: “We continue to anticipate an ex-China recovery in H2”
• Summary - Our view since Feb 2011 has been of a Global double dip in April and May in Steel growth rates and a recovery thereafter. We continue to anticipate an ex China recovery in H2 2011. In China power shortages and consequent production cuts could derail the recovery short term. Either way, steel aluminium and stainless are set to benefit (as these are the metals China will cut production in most if power is restricted). Raw materials could suffer first short term but are likely to see a metal production led adrenaline shot in latter part of year as we have seen in early 2011.
• Differentiation: Commodity and stock selection will remain key both short and long term. Short term Ali, Steel and stainless seem to be in a China led win-win situation. Longer term the China "shorts" iron ore, met/thermal coal and copper remain strongest placed. Either way risk appetite should improve significantly for resource stocks in H2 2011E.
• Stock Calls: we favour Rio, XTA, Thyssen, ArcelorMittal and Vallourec in the larger caps for a mix of early and late cycle and structural earnings growth. Where Rio has some iron ore related risk over the summer, Ali may surprise on the upside, not least given its power integration. Outokumpu remains our least favoured equity given a lack of FCF from earnings, significant net debt and a large forecast capex spend.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes For Friday
Good morning.
No POMO Scheduled Today. New POMO Schedule to be released this afternoon.
------
08:30 Import/Export Prices
14:00 Treasury Budget
------
NE - Noble Corporation upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Morgan Keegan.
RIMM - PT Lowered from $55 to $45 @ RBC. Sector Perform.
------
(on the Anthony Weiner scandal): "The Congressman had a sex scandal and had to apologize to Bill Clinton? For what? Copyright infringement? - Jon Stewart
Gold
looking for gold to chop around for a day or two before running slightly higher to clear out the stops on the shorts then I expect it to correct downwards with the market in a nasty decline.
gold short DZZ
DZZ: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DZZ&p=D&yr=1&mn=2...
DZZ [blow up]: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DZZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=5...
DZZ [60 min]: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DZZ&p=60&yr=0&mn=...
Looking for the market to maybe drop early [1275] before bouncing upwards to finish the day in the green [will posts charts later. Next week we start off up. Just my 2 cents.
Pandora Thinks Investors Like What They Hear, Bumps Up IPO Price
Bubble condition even prior to its IPO.
I use pandora everyday via iphone, to stream to my ford radio. love it. but i pay zero. and have never clicked on any ads. So not sure how much profit/rev they make.
http://bit.ly/jI8YVu
Re: Cara 100 Ratings Changes For Friday
How much more POMO $$$ is left for the last 2 weeks of the month?
Re: CS says it’s time to revisit ArcelorMittal (MT.N)
These CS reports are invaluable. Thanks for sharing.
Re: Pandora Thinks Investors Like What They Hear, Bumps Up ...
This kind of things makes me wonder too, but then again - by this criteria I'd dismiss Google too since I never clicked on any of their ads either :)
(GR) ECB's Stark: Private
(GR) ECB's Stark: Private sector participation in Greece debt restructuring is highly unlikely
- Notes that he is "personally" in favor of private sector participation in Greece restructuring.
- ECB is not against private sector participation in Greece debt restructuring, ECB did not demand private participation.
- Believes the entire restructuring debate is simply a distraction from Greece continuing its reforms.
- Greece's debt to GDP ratio will be sustainable if the country sticks to the IMF/EU program.
- Sees no need for Greece debt restructuring if the govt simply stuck to and completed already announced reforms.
- It remains to be seen whether the ECB would accept swapped Greek bond.
Re: Pandora Thinks Investors Like What They Hear, Bumps Up ...
very true. although, pandora radio is pretty nice. just create my own radio stations by genre or artist and it plays only the music relevant. no more annoying radio dj or annoying debt be gone ads.
However the bluetooth sync on my ford makes it great. if i had to buy a cord or install something, i could live without pandora.
RBS Talks Copper and Humala
A "more hostile" taxation environment for mining investment in Peru following the election of nationalist Ollanta Humala could damp metal production growth and support higher prices, says RBS. "In [2014], we forecast copper to move into supply surplus after four years of shortfall. Were Peruvian mine production growth to be impacted, the market could end up much tighter and closer to balance and be price supportive." LME 3-month copper down 0.5% at $9,010/ton.
UUP
Looks like UUP is going to test the upper trend line today. Looking for a false breakout. Still think we have one more visit to the downside before the dollar really starts to rallies.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=60&yr=0&mn=...
Spanish bond flop
$STD €1bn covered bond flop. Bookrunners left with €500m rump on their books.
http://t.co/jjtX9a4
Dumped the miners, holding the currency shorts
marginal setups that made me uneasy yesterday and not looking better today. Looks to me like metal might come down to meet miners.
Bought 2 130 SPY puts here, averaging in higher or lower will obviously be determined by market action today. Meantime, Aikido calls.
edit: lightened up on FXF short, given the potential for Franc strength and hitting UDN here. Potential lower high and continuation of the trend reversal.
Re: CS says it’s time to revisit ArcelorMittal (MT.N)
Mark H,
I wish I had more time to filter all the info that CS and other broker research I receive.
Kitco Charged With Massive Tax Fraud Scheme
Kitco Charged With Massive Tax Fraud Scheme, Business Viability In Question http://is.gd/FxHSwP
Re: UUP
Your charts are similar to what Twiggs has to say in his latest.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2011-...
Re: UUP
Watching UUP to test 21.35 [upper TL] on the 60min. Also a 38.2% Fib @ 21.33
[edit corrected ]
Nuclear Regulatory - Kick the Can Scheme
Hi All - Noted this clip: After 30 years of study and $15 billion in expenditures the majordomo of the NRC, while not breaking any laws, withheld and manipulated information to make the case for shutting down the proposed radioactive waste dump at Yucca Mountain in Nevada according to the Inspector General. The repressive progressive green agenda uncovered once again. Happy Trading
Long TZA @ 41.23
Had to do it. This pig looks roasted. No one left to buy here and dollar putting in the double bottom. I can't see anyone coming in to save this market today.
SPX
The 1275 area is critical
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=29&id=p43961065619&a=236306831&r=136&cmd=print
Playing in my head
Some 80s era Grateful Dead...........
"Hell In a Bucket"
Words by John Perry Barlow; music by Bob Weir
Well, I was drinking last night with a biker
And I showed him a picture of you
I said, "Pal, get to know her. You'll like her."
Seemed like the least I could do...
'Cause when he's driving his chopper
Up and down your carpeted halls,
You will think me by contrast quite proper.
Never mind how I stumble and fall.
Never mind how I stumble and fall.
[Chorus:]
You imagine me sipping champagne from your boot
For a taste of your elegant pride
I may be going to hell in a bucket, babe,
But at least I'm enjoying the ride.
At least I'm enjoying the ride.
At least I'm enjoying the ride.
Now miss sweet little soft-core pretender,
Somehow baby got hard as it gets.
With her black leather chrome spiked suspenders,
Her chair and her whip and her pets.
Well we know you're the reincarnation
Of the ravenous Catherine the Great.
And we know how you love your ovations
For the Z-rated scenes you create.
The Z-rated scenes you create.
[Bridge:]
You analyze me, pretend to despise me,
You laugh when I stumble and fall.
There may come a day I will dance on your grave
If unable to dance, I will crawl across it
Unable to dance, I'll still crawl.
You must really consider the circus
'Cause it just might be your kind of zoo
I can't think of a place that's more perfect
For a person as perfect as you.
And it's not like I'm leaving you lonely
'Cause I wouldn't know where to begin
But I know that you'll think of me only
When the snakes come marching in
When the snakes come marching in
Re: Long TZA @ 41.23
BS... I think we will reverse in this 1275 area. This maybe turn out the low for the next couple of days.
The headlines this morning preceded the breakdown
Is it not interesting -- to say the least -- how the headlines in all the major media were published an hour or two ahead of the selling.
As Jack Nicholson said: "Who's running this popcorn stand anyway?"
Re: Long TZA @ 41.23
GW, I honestly hope you are right as that would give some more people on this board the chance to clean house. But when the collective psychology changes like I feel it has in the last few days, momentum can swing the other way fast and hard and leave people wondering how they missed there chance to escape. Trying to play a short term reversal here is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller. Not trying to knock your opinion or anything but what I am starting to see is terrifying.......
Rosenberg on QE
"We are hearing from our sources in Washington that the Obama team is going to push for more stimulus — perhaps in the form of an expanded temporary cut to payroll tax rates, this time for employers
• Finally! We have a piece of U.S. economic data impress to the upside"
David Rosenburg today.
-----------
More stimulus? If so, no surprise. As Jimmy Rogers said, "They can call it Cupcake if they want to. All Bernanke knows is how to print money."
But as for a temporary tax cut to employers being "impressed"... not so. Economists should run a business for while in order to know "temporary" is not something to base a business decision on.
Cut taxes, eliminate taxes or restructure the tax system, but our problems today are only compounded by short term thinkers.
Grym
Re: SPX
GW,
Your chart has a lot of information. I especially appreciate that it contains fib value lines. However, I am at a loss to understand the method you use to determine the high and low values upon which you base the generation of the various fib value lines from 0%-100%. Care to share?
Re: Long TZA @ 41.23
BS, I agree playing the reversal is dangerous. My thinking was if 1275 held then the following day would be a good time to add to one's short positions.
Re: SPX
lessmore, hope all that info is not too confusing.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DZZ&p=D&yr=1&mn=2...
On this chart, the gray Fib lines are for a retracement of wave 5 only. Which is 0% ~ bottom of wave 5 [black 5] and the top 100% ~ top of wave 4 [black 4].
Where as for the orange fib line I looked at a retracement all the way back to the beginning of wave 3. So 0% is the bottom of wave 5 and 100% is at the top of wave 2.
Capitulation?
IMHO, miners and SLV are holding OK considering the panic selling and dollar action.
78.6%
So far this morning we are slightly over the level of the 78.6% retracement of the Mar 16 to May 2 rally. Very critical level IMO.
Re: SPX
Thanks for sharing.
Re: SPX
My pleasure. Anytime that my charts causes anyone confusion, please ask! Will be more than happy to explain my madness.
ERY
I had been stalking ERY the past few days. Wanted to enter near 15.10 [which was a 78.6% fib not shown here] but I missed it by 0.06. URGH. Looks like we are headed towards the 16.45-16.57 area.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ERY&p=60&yr=0&mn=...
Ooogle, and how to be Ooogle-free ....
IEEE Spectrum writes of how knitted to Ooogle we are, and what it takes to find substitutes:
http://spectrum.ieee.org/telecom/internet/how-i-le...
IMO, the business of Ooogle is spying, and selling what they learn about you either through their ad business, and who knows where else. (I admit they a cuddly, and super-creative. I use android and chrome, but don't kid myself either. I assume both somehow route info through Ooogle servers.)
And, folks, once information about you is "out there somewhere" it surely becomes available to private investigators hired by a business rival or by an estranged spouse, not to mention (should you be politically active) available to NSA, the Mossad or other intelligence agencies who might be interested in you.
With all Ooogle services knitted together, if your gmail is hacked, a lot more than mail is taken. Once a hacker is into your gmail, all your Ooogle docs can be downloaded: spreadsheets, word processing, calendar, etc.
BTW, Ooogle's new two-tier security, with verification code sent to your cellphone is essential. It takes a few minutes to configure, but protects you better -- against hackers, but of course not against Ooogle itself.
James Falllows' warning from last month: http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011...
I'm not paranoid, just aware of the implications of digital technology. A few weeks ago, the dutch GPS provider, Tom Tom, apologized to its users. They claimed they had only just realized that the data they sold the Dutch police had been used to optimize the placing of speed traps -- to the detriment of Tom Tom's "real customers". I bet they found out when they WERE "found out" .....
?
I am seeing a bounce coming. Not sure how strong yet but I do not believe we will see 1250 or 1260.
Re: Long TZA @ 41.23
yeh agreed Billy, the $ says back off here. Happily I switched to UDN short this morn. Swiss Franc is everyone's go to in a panic. SPY puts paying nicely. One day I^ll go for the throat and make out like a bandit, but that's what risk management is about, especially when not in front of the screen.
how many more weeks before we hear
from news outlets... how could we not see this coming?
Re: ?
GW - Fridays are especially bad for mid/late day recoveries here. Not saying it doesn't happen, but if there is a bounce I think there will be a lot eager beavers ready to reduce risk in their retirement accounts, etc.
I see a lot of bearish sentiment being expressed but I don't see many bears willing to put money where there mouth is.......thats what the contrarian in me sees
little bear flag setting up on AAPL 15 min chart?
or i need glasses.
Kudos
To the person that brought up the 13/34 cross on the VIX.
Seems to have been right on.
http://screencast.com/t/TKuwB5Mv3Lr
SPX
Chart of SPX cash, has a couple of different fib retrace's off two different low points. Also clearly shows the rally from AUG (I think that was the time frame, could be wrong)on the QE2 show.
If things get really ugly may have some points of interest.
http://screencast.com/t/9tpbyQcA2gHn
When in doubt protect capital is my motto.
Bloggers go to Wash
50 bloggers met with top officials of US admin this week. Here's one report. Worth a look or at least read his conclusion.
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/54821/Mr.+Reitmeis...
Wrap Up
It was a great honor to meet with these officials first hand in a small intimate atmosphere. I believe that they are all people of great intelligence and conviction.
If that is true, then why does it seem that the government is so ineffective? That brings me back to something I learned a long time ago from the father of quality management, Dr. W. Edwards Deming. He said "the problem is never the people...it is the process." That certainly applies to our political system. It's a poor process whereby the 2 main parties spend too much time bludgeoning the other to gain the upper hand in the next election. And not enough time is taken to think about what is right for the people they are serving. When we solve that, then we can make real headway on the big issues that affect us all.
Re: Kudos
But I was looking for sharper spike upwards on the cross over. That is why I think we could still rally back bringing in more longs and then the next impulsive wave down will produce the sharp spike up and the blood flowing in the street type of selling. Today's selling was too controlled for me. Besides look at silver and gold no big sell off [no margin calls at least for today].
Going back to Bill's thesis of the next shoe [commodities] dropping, now that will show up on the VIX.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&st=2009-09-25&en=%28today%29&id=p02413455799&a=234563339&r=5741&cmd=print
Re: Bloggers go to Wash
I know many may disagree. but this is a bad move. If all the influential bloggers showed up to one meeting, it basically is putting all our efforts in one basket for the "top perps" to id every enemy they have.
anonymity is the right path, until the majority have been assembled and coordinated to move in mass unison. There are no friends of truth in DC.
FXE
Is below the 50MA
From the other day
Put Geoff's comments on a chart. Maybe with a controlled sell off the 200MA is the next stop.
http://tinyurl.com/CTA-Geoff
Re: Kudos
Yes, I agree the selloff is controlled and somewhat hidden through rotation, but now they are hitting more and more sectors. The clue to me was the breakdown of individual stocks which has been ongoing for a while.
At the end of QE1 we sold off SPX -17.12% (1219.80/1010.91) with QE2 ending we are down -7.10% (1370.58/?), but as usual your individual stocks are reacting with much more downside volatility. So based on this the selloff could be in beginning stages.
I actually think that this summer is going to be a great time to accumulate select gold equity stocks and gold bullion. The monetary problems of the US are not even remotely being addressed and we still have negative real interests probably for as long as the the FED insists on low rates for an extended period of time. Japan anyone?
Time will tell, GW thanks for the 13/34 cross I like it.
New $$$ Road Map
Looks like UUP could reverse [if it does] around 21.45ish area. You have an unfilled gap in the 21.42 area, 50% Fib retracement line 21.43 and a possible resistance of an up trend line at 21.45.
60min UUP http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=60&yr=0&mn=...
Re: Kudos
Telestar3d, I would like to enter a Japan trade but not sure how at this point other than an ETF.
On the 13/34 cross over, just remember it is slow in confirming but when it does it is certain.
PCLN
Not sure if anyone else here is short but I am looking to cover around 440 or at rising 200MA [red line].
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PCLN&p=D&yr=1&mn=...
O'bam-bam
gotta go ' deepwater '... See States giving in, as revenues are sinking. More paychecks = more tax receipts.. NC/SC may be first to give in..
Re: Kudos
GW, can you please explain the 13/34 crossover and its implications?
Thanks,
Chris
Silver Short
ZSL bumping up against unfilled gap resistance on the 60min. Breaks through that it will be time to flip the silver bull burgers over on the barbie. Still holding ZSL but very hacked off I didn't get a fill at 15.10 yesterday.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZSL&p=60&yr=0&mn=...
Banks jumped up on this:
Capital charges on large banks to be at 2-2.5% vs prior expectations of as high as 3% - CNBC citing sources
Re: Banks jumped up on this:
Thanks Vad.
Re: Kudos
http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/may-31-2011.html
some Japan ideas.
Re: 78.6%
GW, where does the 78.6% come from? I don't think is a Fib level, is it?
Dung tells us to buy urine
http://bit.ly/mKRfgc
AIG Is a ‘Classic Value Idea’ That May Gain 32%, BofA Says (1)
Someone got paid to analyze this and produce the recommendation. Wowzer
I tell ya'
RIG trades like a penny stock.. Amazing to see .20 cent moves, on just several hundred shares, in the blink of an eye..
Re: 78.6%
Useful fib numbers:
23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8, 78.6, 88.6, 113, 127, 161.8
especially 113, 78.6 and 61.8
See Vad's Catch of the Day
Above.
Re: 78.6%
Tbolt these are common used .618 , .786 , 1,27 & 1.618 Fib ratios used in Forex trading.
Its official: after today's close, Bonds outperform
SPY YTD. Just in time for the end of QE2, a battle over the debt ceiling (Chinese jawboning...very uncharacteristic...they must be real nervous), and Bill Gross and Jim Rogers net short treasuries.
Throw a little Greece on an already hot fire...10 yr will be at 2.70% before you know it.
SLV Heads Up
Pull up a 4 month chart on SLV and note the Bollinger Bands. They are compressing. Silver is about to make a big move. But which way and when? I am trying to put a wave count on this move down from Apr 28. Of course I am currently short but trying to stay objective here. Anyhoooo, either way there is going to be some $$$$ to be made on this trade. Keep in mind the "Trading WIzard's" thesis of the second shoe to drop.
again 78.6
As in, wouldn't it be fascinating if SPY, off it's incredible bottom at 1:30, were to turn tail, more or less at 128.58? That would be 78.6% retracement of our entire day. then again, that was a LOT of buying that took the futures up so fast, so anything is possible here....
Re: SLV Heads Up
Calling the move down from Apr 28 impulsive. If that is correct, then we are still correcting and it looks like another small rally in silver is needed from this current drop. If this thinking is correct then the next big move in silver should be the silver bull's dreaded wave 3 down. So the BB's tightening should contain this corrective move still be played out.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=8...
one more thing
Going out on a limb here, but 128.58 is now also more or less a 113% extension of the little pull back we just had to SPY 128.04 (or so)...
Re: Its official: after today's close, Bonds outperform
nebish,
Hope you're right — I've started nibbling at TLT.
Grym
I would not be shorting gold now (too late)
"Mark Hulbert’s HGNSI (a sentiment indicator) was 74% at the recent all-time high. Now it is only 20%. Gold has remained firm as most assets- including gold and silver shares, have declined.
Consider the average recommended gold exposure among a subset of the shortest-term gold timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). This average currently stands at just 20.3%, which means that the average gold timer is currently allocating nearly 80% of his or her gold portfolio to cash.
To put the HGNSI’s current level into context, consider that it is just 13 percentage points higher than the 7% level at which this average stood at gold’s mid-May low. Normally in the face of a $65 increase in gold’s price, we’d expect to see the HGNSI jump by more than this, which is why contrarians conclude that bullishness in the gold market remains healthily subdued.
In fact, even though gold closed Monday within 10 dollars of its previous all-time high, the HGNSI currently stands 53 percentage points below where it stood when gold hit that earlier high.
This all suggests to contrarians that gold has good odds of soon trading at a new all-time high. How far bullion is able to push into new-high territory will depend in no small part by how quickly the gold traders then choose to jump on the bullish bandwagon."
http://thedailygold.com/sentiment/mark-hulbert-gol...
FD: thinking about good entry points in miners even though it could be still a bit early. PAL and BIDU purchased yesterday holds. REDF and EWY didn't stick.
Nanex Analysis of Flash Crash and Related
Several interesting presentations out there...
http://www.nanex.net/FlashCrash/FlashCrashAnalysis...
Vad -- Appreciate all your trading examples...truly is like a 'Schaum's Outline of Day Trading' ... Thanks much!!!
2-2.5% isnt going to save the banks
from trillions of funny money assets, bad debt obligations, and derivatives.
Re: SLV Heads Up
I agree with the compression and big move coming. I think it will be up. Why? Look at the sentiments, all gold/silver speculation is dead. Who is going to sell if weak hands are empty? The only unknown is dollar as the charts look healthy for dollar.
Re: I would not be shorting gold now (too late)
jack black, this is just my thinking and from what I see on my gold charts. Since gold's low in early May it has been correcting. The correction so far looks like it maybe a complex flat vs a A-B-C type of correction. If this is so then the next couple of moves will be range bound. So if the wave down for gold in early may was indeed impulsive then gold will tumble once this complex flat is played out. I would expect gold to test at least the 150ma and possibly fall below it some what as to clear out the stops for the next run up.
GDX vs Gold
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0...
Re: Bloggers go to Wash
These were not bloggers, like me for instance, unless you consider Forbes, The Economist, Kiplinger, MSN, Yahoo, and AOL/Huffington to be bloggers. NOT.
They were electronic media.
This came to me from NewsMax:
In a first for the administration, the White House brought together 22 of the country’s leading online media — including Newsmax, Forbes, The Economist, Kiplinger, MSN, Yahoo, and AOL/Huffington Post — to create a platform to better communicate the administration's economic message.
Newsmax Editorial Director Steve Coz and Newsmax magazine Editor in Chief Ken Chandler attended the summit Wednesday and spoke with Obama and his advisers.
President Obama and his advisers asserted that the public is not aware of the economic improvements that have taken place during the past 18 months.
Speakers at the exclusive invitation-only summit included Austan Goolsbee, chief economist for the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board, and Gene Sperling, director of the National Economic Council and assistant to the president for Economic Policy.
The summit focused on the debt ceiling, the housing crisis, and the job market. Obama, looking determined, urged patience and insisted that his economic programs are working, and challenged Republicans on spending cuts.
"We went through a bubble that happened at every level — government, corporate, financial, and consumer," Obama said. "This deleveraging has been very painful. It has sobered everybody up.”
Overall, after six consecutive quarters of solid growth, the first quarter of 2011 saw a dismal 1.8 percent GDP growth rate. That was down from 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010.
The president, noting that the symposium’s media attendees could reach tens of millions of Americans, added: "It remains smart to spend on things that will increase productivity and income in the long term. The economy has to get back to producing more and not just spending more."
Referring to the disappointing unemployment numbers reported in May, Goolsbee said: “You cannot make too much out of any one jobs report,” adding that “1 million new jobs” have been added in the past six months.
The unemployment rate, which has been improving over the past several months, rose unexpectedly in May from 9.0 to 9.1 percent, causing concern about the nation’s economic recovery.
However, Goolsbee said, “We do not have a sense of panic,” and stressed that the overall trend was important, not one individual set of numbers.
And Sperling suggested that both sides in the debt ceiling battle had come to an agreement that there had to be “a significant down payment on deficit reduction.”
Sperling also said taking on entitlements including Medicare cannot be ruled out.
Obama confirmed Sperling’s statements, saying it is a challenge to deal with those who believe supporting programs such as Medicaid and cutting spending to reduce the deficit are mutually exclusive.
“It doesn’t mean we’re not going to have some tough choices,” he explained. “What I think is absolutely true is that the general public does not have all the information they need in respect to how the federal budget is constructed.
“I don’t blame them. When I was not actively involved with the federal government, I had no idea what was taking place and what was in appropriations bills.”
After Obama presented his views on the overall economy, he engaged the audience in a Q and A and shared some of his own personal financial experiences.
ZSL
Silver short hitting resistance at both unfilled gap and 61.8% fib in the 17.90ish area. Both gold and silver shorts up into the close. Wonder if Monday there will be any margin call on any PM traders?
Re: Bloggers go to Wash
Ah ic. sounds like a meeting wasting tax payer dollars. Sorry to categorize those in attendance as bloggers. I guess they are more "wannabe bloggers"
:)
Re: Bloggers go to Wash
"In a first for the administration, the White House brought together 22 of the country’s leading online media — including Newsmax, Forbes, The Economist, Kiplinger, MSN, Yahoo, and AOL/Huffington Post — to create a platform to better communicate the administration's economic message."
I understand what that means. The community organiser from Chicago is pulling the means of communication very close to himself in the coming election. No doubt the experience will be developed and strengthened in future administrations.
"Propaganda must be planned and executed by only one authority."
"Credibility alone must determine whether propaganda output should be true or false."
"To be perceived, propaganda must evoke the interest of an audience and must be transmitted through an attention-getting communications medium. "
funny that Goolsbee is almost an anagram of Goebbels...
Lightened up for the weekend
actually forced to lighten up first and foremost by a message received for the first time from IB 15 minutes before closing. I don't know what a regulation T enforcement is but having been threatened with involuntary closure of trades I ditched the FXF short, which hadn't moved today. The Swissie is strong stuff.
I was heavily short in currencies, for what my little account offers in margin. Having laid on so much risk for the first time is probably the reason IB flashed me.
I was short just a couple of puts again today and they turned on me at the bottom. I added two just below the top, thinking the bounce was finished, but the market pressed higher so I sold out flat. 5 minutes later I was back in again as SPY provided the rollover signal I was looking for and I hit it for 4 puts, selling just before close.
A 25k account is a must for this game, otherwise you don't use volume when you should be, so you can scale out of risk profitably. As it is I am locked out until Wednesday and now thinking about entry positions. We're at 127 and 125 is a zone of interest and I'm still disturbed by the lack of panic selling. No panic selling, no interest in holding a short position over the weekend.
remain short in $UDN (lower high suggests continuation of downtrend), long in YCS, long 2 SPY Sep 105 puts (flash crash lottery tickets ;)
its feels more like 2002 than 2008
with the redic ipo valuations + Bernanke bubble replacing dot com bubble.
Monday should be interesting. I am sure AAPL and C will be a hot topic between mommy and daddy this weekend.
James Turk gold presentation... April, 2011, Germany
from Flecks site..> http://www.goldmoney.com/video/james-turk-presenta...
Kitco!? Anyone with more information?
It doesn't look good here.
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/06/10/reven...
Re: Bloggers go to Wash
Just to set the record straight, I knew I wasn't using the right word at time of writing, just wanted to put it out there. I think it has some significance, being the beginning of a different dialogue, you can be cynical, but this kind of thing is better than ignoring what's being said by the american public in these circles.
Re: Kitco!? Anyone with more information?
Innocent until proven guilty.
be aware of the "metadata" embedded in pix you post online ...
Remember Weiner first said, he didn't know it wasn't a photo of him? This after he had contracted a firm to "find his hacker".
I bet he was advised that the serial number of his camera was embedded in the image he tweeted; so he didn't dare deny the photo was of him -- even while he spun the rest of his story.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2011/06/dig...
Think about this. Unsuspecting user posts a pic on somewhere that identifies them (facebook?). Then facial recognition software can crawl the web and retrieve all other photos of the same face. Some of those other photos might be indiscreet.
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/facebook-facial-r...
A great boon to blackmailers and stalkers ...
Re: Bloggers go to Wash
Les,
Agreed.
Never let anyone think that Obama will let any form of spin escape his grasp. In fact, I'm surprised it has taken this long for him to make use of the internet as his personal tool. I guess he was just too busy wooing the illegal immigrants with "immigration reform" (total amnesty) and his usual low-end and unemployed with "free" goodies to bother with the rest of us.
A Pew survey showed he has been losing their support due to unfulfilled promises and this move is a part of the new move to the middle. The Osama factor has been diminishing already and a full court press will ensue.
"Buggers go to eyewash" is a better title, IMO. With the Big O — all is for show.
Grym
Re: Bloggers go to Wash
westcoaster,
Yes, I'm cynical. I voted for him to be my Senator and will never forgive myself!
He is the embodiment of Chicago Machine Politics. Unless you are from Illinois you may not understand, but a string of four-letter words would not be appreciated here, so I am restraining myself with great effort at what I think may come of this.
For a bit of background do a bit of research on Joe Kennedy's hijacking of the Illinois vote, the mob involvement, etc. If it reads like a cheap novel or a plot from the Middle Ages, you found the right story.
Grym
See the Post-Close Report
Above.
Re: Bloggers go to Wash
I think it goes to show that the traditional MSM like newspapers and TV are beginning to lose their relevance.
Ron
Aluminium alloy = energy and pure water!
A Purdue University engineer, Jerry Woodall, has created an aluminum alloy that produces hydrogen and heat. Seeking venture captial.
http://www.innovationnewsdaily.com/aluminum-water-...
Re: Bloggers go to Wash
rgr,
I couldn't agree more. The only 'financial tv' I watch is Jon Stewart. :)
Re: Aluminium alloy = energy and pure water!
Promising....
A new energy source will be discovered someday that will replace fossil fuels.
Will this be it?
composition of "chicago's" cabinet
Grym will appreciate this.........The percentage of each past president's cabinet who had worked in the private business sector prior to their appointment to the cabinet. You know what the private business sector is...a real-life business, not a government job. Here are the percentages.
> T. Roosevelt.........38%
> Taft.................40%
> Wilson ..............52%
> Harding..............49%
> Coolidge............ 48%
> Hoover...............42%
> F. Roosevelt.........50%
> Truman...............50%
> Eisenhower...........57%
> Kennedy..............30%
> Johnson..............47%
> Nixon................53%
> Ford.................42%
> Carter...............32%
> Reagan...............56%
> GH Bush............ 51%
> Clinton ...........39%
> GW Bush.............55%
>
> And the winner is: Obama............... 8% //EXPLAINS A LOT
GM's Akerson pushing for higher gas taxes
http://www.detnews.com/article/20110607/AUTO01/106...
Not that any of this really matters...
Take care everyone.
Earl
Re: composition of "chicago's" cabinet
Wow tobyt. Only 8% of his adult life in the private sector? Splains alot to me. One may only assume that as a member of the Chicago Irish/Italiano espresso bar association that he matriculated in advising the 'Mob' aka the (Illinois politicos) on the highest, best and legal practices in taking kickbacks on government contracts and sud rinsing the proceeds through O'leary's flower shop on the South Side who last year reported pretax sales of $4.2 billion :-)
It's nothing new in the power grab of singularily unqualified people to slop at the trough filled with the public's money.
Which brings me to Hillary (rodem and reemem) Clinton who wants to be 'Chief' of the World Bank... On her resume she can list her qualifications as an astute cattle trader!!!!!! Way back (statute of limitations now expired) she turned $1,000 into $100,000 in ten months! I guess a gal needs to feed her family since back then, hubby Willy only made $32K a s Gubner of AreKansas...
A couple of decades later and that $100k honey pot has grown to more that $65 million! Buffet should be ashamed that a couple of vulgar low life hicks could best his track record starting with a measley $1,000 smackers...
Jeez it is really hard to make this stuff up.
"Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right Here I am, stuck in the middle with THEM." An anagram for 'Them' would be 'Meth' which will be given out gratis by Uncle Shylock so we can all work our ass's off to pay yesterday's debts!
Re: Aluminium alloy = energy and pure water!
According to the author, aluminium can be reused - so if the process is practical this IS promising.
GoldMoney: Turk and von Greyerz
Interesting interview and predictions!
http://goldswitzerland.com/index.php/james-turk-in...
Trade The News Weekly market update: Market Week Wrap-up
- Fallout from the soft economic data seen over the last month continued to push global equity indices lower and drive flight to safety trades this week. US equities saw their sixth consecutive weekly loss, the longest losing streak since 2002, and on Friday the DJIA closed below the 12,000 level for the first time since mid-March. With QE2 expiring at the end of the month, analysts and market commentators debated the likelihood of some form of continued easing from the Fed, although the current consensus is that things would have to get much worse for the Fed to launch QE3.
Fed Chairman Bernanke hardly touched on the subject in his big policy speech on Wednesday, merely affirming that the extended period will remain in place. Other Fed governors dismissed further easing: Dudley said the soft patch in US economic activity is unlikely to last and Lockhart stated that a third round of QE would not be needed. Other commentators were less restrained: economist Robert Shiller warned that a double-dip recession is a real risk and said a further decline in housing prices of up to 25% over the next five years would not be surprising (recall that last week the S&P Case-Shiller housing price index hit its lowest level since the summer of 2006 in Q1). PIMCO's El-Erian said he was shocked by recent declines in consensus growth estimates, although he also said there is too much liquidity in the system for another recession to happen.
In Europe, officials continued to pretend that the Greek situation was days or weeks away from resolution, even as the ECB and Germany squabbled over arrangements for some sort of debt restructuring. There was a brief equity bounce on Thursday after US exports rose to a new all-time high in April of $175.5B, although the big sequential decline in China's May trade volume and contraction in Britain's April manufacturing data helped eliminate those gains Friday morning. The Nasdaq and S&P500 had their biggest weekly declines since August 2010, falling 3.3% and 2.2% respectively, and on Friday the Nasdaq fell into the red year to date for 2011. The DJIA lost 1.6% this week.
- OPEC had a very contentious meeting on Wednesday, as oil ministers from member nations publically clashed over whether or not to increase production quotas. The Saudis and their Gulf allies Kuwait and the UAE proposed an production hike of up to 1.5M bpd while other delegates wanted to keep production flat. The faction seeking no increase prevailed, and OPEC maintained the current quota of 24.82M bpd with a loose agreement to revisit the issue at a special meeting in three months. Oil futures surged back above $100/bbl as OPEC confounded expectations.
The Saudi oil minister called it "the worst meeting ever" and pledged his nation would meet any rise in market demand regardless of the cartel's quotas. [Note that few member states have stuck to their quotas since the early 1990s, and OPEC's April production (ex Iraq) was 26.3M bpd. Various estimates see the organization's actual production, with Iraq, closer to 30M bpd].
Later in the week there were press reports that Saudi Arabia would increase production to 10M bpd in July, up from May production of 8.9M bpd in order to meet growing demand. Saudi officials responded to the reports by saying it was too early to say whether they would increase output in June or not, but the report still helped push oil back below triple digits on Friday.
- Shares of the largest US banks see-sawed through the week. Analyst calls weighed on the sector as Dick Bove cut Wells Fargo to a sell and lowered FY11 estimates for Morgan Stanley. The New York Post reported that Barclays, Goldman, Bank of America, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley were planning to announce thousands of job cuts at trading investment banking units in the coming weeks.
The debate over debit card interchange fees also continued to weigh on issuers, as the Senate defeated a measure that sought to delay implementation of the Durbin rules that would cap debit card transaction fees set to go into effect next month. Both the Fed and the FDIC discussed proposals for extra capital charges for systemically important financial firms (the so-called SIFIs), with the Fed pushing for a 3% maximum surcharge on top of the new Basel III requirements.
FDIC Chairwoman Bair said the surcharge could be 2-3% on top of Basel III, noting that the big banks would make a "nice return" on capital even with a 10% total capital requirement. Bank names rallied late on Friday's session after press reports indicated an unpublicized meeting of global banking regulators was backing off the US proposal for a 3% extra charge for SIFIs, and instead would likely cap it at 2-2.5%.
- US Treasury prices began the week consolidating near multi-month highs as the economic soft patch and continued consternation in Europe buoyed demand. Yields hit fresh lows mid-week after Bernanke indicated 2011 growth was coming in somewhat slower than expected. Buying was strongest at the short end with the 2-year yield dipping below 0.4% for the first time since last November. The benchmark 10-year yield drifted below 2.95% despite coupon auctions Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Fed fund futures are now not fully pricing in a Fed rate cut until Q4 2012.
- The week in FX began with the greenback consolidating after last Friday's anemic US jobs data, which only reinforced expectations for ultra-easy Fed policy to remain in place for the foreseeable future. Dollar softness was aided by comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke, who confirmed that accommodative monetary policy would still be needed for an extended period, while in Europe dealers were expecting ECB Chief Trichet to signal that a rate increase could happen at the July meeting.
Comments out of China deflected the focus away from the Greek debt crisis, as the China State Administration of Foreign Exchange's (SAFE) Guan Ho, head of the international payment department, warned that he saw risks in excessive holdings of dollar assets and said that the dollar would continue to weaken against other major currencies.
EUR/USD moved higher on the remarks, testing 1.4070 for fresh one-month highs. Euro strength did not survive the ECB press conference, however, and after Trichet uttered the magic words "strong vigilance," laying the groundwork for another rate hike in July, EUR/USD tumbled lower and flushed out crowded euro long positions. The cross broke below critical hourly support of 1.4550 Thursday morning and finished out the week well below 1.4400. Note also that USD/CHF continued to probe fresh post-WWII lows around the 0.8325 area
- The tone of the Greek drama shifted from last week's positive developments to a standoff between Germany and the ECB over private participation in a potential debt restructuring. The ECB demanded assurances that a debt rollover would be absolutely voluntary after German government officials warned that Germany's participation would be predicated on private investors sharing in the burdens.
During the ECB press conference Trichet said that forcing private creditors to participate in a Greek debt rollover would be akin to default, while German Finance Minister Schaeuble countered that private sector investors cannot escape contributing to the Greece package. The ratings agencies continued to press the situation, as Fitch warned that it would lower the sovereign rating of Greece to 'C' in the event of any distressed debt exchange, equivalent to a seven-notch move from the current B+ level.
There were unconfirmed press reports that the second Greece bailout package could cost up to €120B, compared to the €90B figure thrown around previously. The Greek government tried to signal progress by announcing its cabinet had unanimously approved a new four-year austerity plan that would meet the demands of the troika (ECB,IMF, EU), and PM Papandreou asked for political unity in the parliament which will vote on the plan on June 28.
- Ahead of Thursday's BoE rate decision the IMF commented on the UK economy, warning that now was not the time for the UK to adjust its macroeconomic stance. The IMF stated that it believes the BoE should only tighten policy after economic growth resumes. GBP/USD hit 1.6375 right after the MPC kept rates on hold, and sterling was broadly lower after Moody's reiterated that weak economic growth and fiscal slippage could see the UK lose its AAA sovereign rating.
- USD/JPY maintained a foothold below the 80 handle during the early part of the week. The stronger JPY was aided by comments from the IMF after acting chief Lipsky stated he does not view current level of the yen as a problem for future Japanese growth. Dealers are focused on the 79.50 level where a clump of option barriers exist. The level also corresponds to the initial entry back in March of the coordinated currency intervention by the G7.
- Central banks in Australia, New Zealand and South Korea offered varying degrees of hawkishness in their respective monetary policy updates this week. The RBA was expected to be the most hawkish but disappointed with a cautious tone, reiterating that its restrictive policy stance remains appropriate. The RBA also downgraded its assessment of labor, warning that employment growth would be slower in the near term.
Later in the week, the Australia May employment change data indeed came in well below expectations and the labor participation rate also retreated. AUD/USD move to two-week lows below $1.0530 on Friday. The New Zealand central bank kept rates on hold but signaled that OCR will have to rise in order to offset the increasing inflation pressure.
NZD hit a post-flotation record high of $0.83 against the dollar before risk aversion and verbal jawboning against excessive Kiwi strength by RBNZ governor Bollard pulled the pair back to $0.8210 on Friday. The Bank of Korea was the biggest surprise in the trifecta, unexpectedly raising rates by 25bps to 3.25% following two consecutive holds. The BoK attributed its tighter stance to persistent inflation pressures, with the most recent core metrics hitting multi-year high despite falling headline figures, showcasing the pass-through from food and energy into other parts of the economy.
- The China trade data was cited among the key factors in Friday's pronounced sell-off, as the May surplus of $13B missed the $19B consensus. A closer look reveals a less gloomy output however, as imports rose sharply amid sequential gains in iron ore and energy. Recall that the disappointing imports last month foreshadowed multi-month lows in China industrial production, leading to speculation next week's monthly metrics may contain an upward surprise. Shanghai Composite losses were contained below 1% for the week as the index bounced above the key 2,700 level late on Friday.
Re: Trade The News Weekly market update: Market Week Wrap-up
Les,
I like the summary. If you would publish the sources of this info, I would add it to the WIR -- as long as it is from several sources.
Re: Bloggers go to Wash
rgr,
True. The old timers remember when weekly or even monthly magazines were influential — LIFE, LOOK, Saturday Evening Post — all gone except for an occasional shadow. The clout is gone.
Our local newspaper has had several purges in the last decade and, like the TV, often refers readers to their website for details. There is virtually no investigative reporting. We now have a volunteer (free fillers) citizens group writing "Special columns" on various topics of local interest.
Grym
Re: composition of "chicago's" cabinet
tobyt,
"Grym will appreciate this"
BINGO! ;-)
There's an old saying, "Them that can — Do. Them that can't do — Teach".
And just how much does "real-life business" experience do you suppose Dr. Bernanke has?
I think he's shown us that it is ZIP!
The early traders who landed in New England knew the basics — and not an MBA among them.
Grym
Re: composition of "chicago's" cabinet
Ilya,
"It's nothing new in the power grab of singularily unqualified people to slop at the trough filled with the public's money."
Right on!
What is a "Community Organizer"?
Someone with street smarts who knows how to play the system to his own advantage.
Obama might have written the book on it. Well spoken, personable black guy coming of age in the "Quota Era". Able to rise through Chicago street university of grants, aid programs, neighborhood help organizations and move on to the big time by taking advantage of people and circumstances like an Olympic runner hopping hurdles. This internet move is just the latest for him.
Our city in northern Illinois is one of the hardest hit with unemployment running double digits for over a decade.
What are we doing? We're following the governmental pattern from the top down. Obama would love it.
Here Tourism is the new buzzword and replacement package for all the manufacturing jobs we've exported. We now have a Bureau of Tourism with high paid, top heavy management.
A downtown "Farmers' Market" was started last year and today our paper announced a new manager position to promote what a few people already have going. (Guess who will be paid more than those who grow the products.)
Just as with a national problem (Think investigative committee, task force, Presidential Commission...) another layer of government paid (taxpayer that is) community organizing. We are starting another one... COG — Committee of Governments — a group to gather the combined ignorance of the area "leaders" to cooperate in inviting people to come to where the jobs aren't. Government job creation, simply put, is hire more to work in... Government.
The announcements always remind me of Judy Garland and Mickey Rooney in the old movies with, "Let's put on a show!" as a solution to everything.
Grym
Re: composition of "chicago's" cabinet
Grym,
Is it true crime increased notably in Chicago? I keep hearing about flash mob muggings and attacks in popular tourist spots in broad daylight.
COAL POWER
ALOHA!!
The competition for ENERGY is in our face ...
BP published its June 2011 Statistical Review of World Energy this week, which recorded a 5.6 percent increase in global primary energy consumption, the largest since 1973. China’s energy consumption grew by 11.2 percent to make up 20.3 percent of the world total, eclipsing the U.S. for the first time.
COAL
Coal consumption grew by 7.6% in 2010, the fastest global
growth since 2003. Coal now accounts for 29.6% of global energy
consumption, up from 25.6% 10 years ago. Chinese consumption
grew by 10.1%; China last year consumed 48.2% of the world’s coal
and accounted for nearly two-thirds of global consumption growth.
But consumption growth was robust elsewhere as well: OECD
consumption grew by 5.2%, the strongest growth since 1979, with
strong growth in all regions. Global coal production grew by 6.3%,
with China (+9%) again accounting for two-thirds of global growth.
Elsewhere, coal production grew robustly in the US and Asia but
fell in the EU, helping to explain the relative strength of coal prices
in Europe.
Now contrast this global energy demand with how our own government views coal through the EPAs eyes ...
EPA SHUTS DOWN YELLOWSTONE
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), is now attempting to push the Obama Administration's energy policies by imposing 946 pages of new regulations on U.S. energy companies that will cost electricity producers $10.9 billion a year, the cost of which will be passed on to consumers.
Coal provides more than half of U.S. electricity, and 25 states get more than 50% of their electricity from conventional coal-fired generation. In Ohio, it totals 86%, according to the Energy Information Administration. Ratepayers in Indiana (94%), Missouri (85%), New Mexico (80%), Pennsylvania (56%), West Virginia (98%) and Wyoming (95%) are going to get soaked.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the price hikes from a 15% cut in emissions would increase energy costs for the average American household to between $680 and $1,500, every year.
The EPA claims that its regulations are fair, and are an effort to limit emissions of mercury, lead and other toxins from coal-fired plants. But to build its case against mercury, the EPA ignored evidence and clinical studies that contradict its regulatory agenda-which is to punish hydrocarbon use.
"According to The Wall Street Journal, mercury exists naturally in the environment, and is found in the air, water, rocks, soil and trees, all of which absorb it from the environment."
Willie Soon, an independent scientist and expert on mercury and public health issues, and Paul Driessen, a senior policy adviser for the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, reveal that: "America's coal-burning power plants emit an estimated 41-48 tons of mercury per year. U.S. forest fires emit at least 44 tons per year. Cremation of human remains discharges 26 tons. Chinese power plants eject 400 tons, and volcanoes, sub-sea vents, geysers and other sources spew out 9,000-10,000 additional tons per year. And, the 200 million tons of mercury naturally present in seawater have never posed a danger to any living being."
Under the EPA's new requirements, Yellowstone National Park, famous for its geysers, would not be in compliance! Not only that but my volcano here in Hawaii, Kilauea, would also have to be shut down ...
Here in America "government for the people, by the people" is for sale to the lowest bidder!
Re: composition of "chicago's" cabinet
NYUGrad,
Our son works downtown in the Chicago loop. When we asked about this here was his response:
"For the record, I have not been a perpetrator in any of the attacks one block east of work or one block west of work. [He's joking BTW] They have occurred hours after we go home. But the news coverage has helped explain why I've seen more cops hanging around outside the McDonalds at Chicago and State this spring: The articles say there was a mob of 70 violent young people there in April that compelled ten cop cars to arrive and the McDonalds to shut down for three hours. Mob objective: unknown."
Grym
Secret Bilderberg Group meets in Switzerland
'Tis the season
http://fromthetrenchesworldreport.com/bilderberg-g...
The who's who of 2011 Bilderberg cartel
http://fromthetrenchesworldreport.com/bilderberg-g...
GRR
Thanks Kaimu (and Les for links to previous posts) for pulling together the GRR picture. I just caught up with it.
Re: Trade The News Weekly market update: Market Week Wrap-up
I'm sorry Bill. I tried to join Trade The News for their market moving news feed, but they shut me out due to not having a LinkedIn account (I doubly dislike this stock now) with people who could vouch - I am not part of the club.
They do continue to email me such feeds. I simply paste them as a Saturday read as I find them - with no sources attached. I thought of it as a WIR pre-appetiser. You'd have to deal directly with TTN.
Mauldin explains US/European exposure to the PIGS issue
Time to Get Outraged by the Banks
“Implications
“This has some important implications. First, US and European financial institutions are likely to have very different incentives as negotiations regarding debt restructuring and reprofiling proceed. US banks and insurance companies are surely delighted with the " soft restructuring" that is currently being discussed. Such a partial default would probably not trigger default insurance payments, and so the pain would be borne almost exclusively by European institutions.
On the other hand, some time soon it seems likely that European creditors will begin to prefer a "hard restructuring" that would require default insurance payouts from the US institutions that sold such insurance. Given how strikingly one-sided the net default insurance payments will be (from the US to Europe), it's easy to imagine how that could shape future negotiations over debt relief for the PIGs.
“Second, there's an interesting puzzle here. Why have European and American financial institutions behaved so differently when it comes to the PIGs? Specifically, why have American firms been so willing to sell default insurance to the Europeans, though they have not bought much PIG debt? And conversely, why have the Europeans systematically been so eager to buy insurance for their PIG debt, even at the very high price such insurance now commands? In essence, European firms have been betting that a PIG default will happen sooner rather than later, while US firms have been betting that default would happen later or not at all.”
If I read those tables correctly, that means US banks have sold some $120 billion of credit default swaps to European banks. Let’s think about that for a minute.
When, not if, Greece defaults, US banks are going to have to dip into capital to pay those commitments. Capital that should be available for loans to businesses but will have to be paid to European banks instead. Will it be a 100% Greek default, or only 50%? If it is a default, do you have to pay all or just the defaulted portion, and when?
Why, oh why, are banks putting American taxpayers at risk, as these too-big-to-fail banks certainly are? And make no mistake, if several major banks were to collapse, our government would need to step in. The largest banks are too big for the FDIC to handle. Now, shareholders would be wiped out this time and bond holders would face haircuts. No question. But why are investment banks allowed to mix the risk with their commercial banks?
http://ce.frontlinethoughts.com/CT00006702MzU3NzA2...
Re: composition of "chicago's" cabinet
Well, that would explain a lot as the team is incompetent indeed. However, it was GH Bush 51% who managed to totally screw up this country.
It would be interesting to look at the % of oil industry people in that Bush' 51%.
Re: composition of "chicago's" cabinet
And not only "oil people". How about the last Tres Sec, Paulson and GS? How about Rumsfeld? He had some biz experience per WikiP "From 1977 to 1985 Rumsfeld served as Chief Executive Officer, President, and then Chairman of G.D. Searle & Company, a worldwide pharmaceutical company based in Skokie, Illinois." (Gobbled up by Pzizer, reference Celebrex). David Packard, founder of HP, was also Sec of Def. The richest one I might add.
The list of revolving doors is endless and is a pox on both parties. It's the system. As it exists now.
Politics/jack black
I hate to bring up politics on Bill's blog but......dems have controlled senate since 06, McCain introduced legislation then to try and rein in the fannies, nothing happened. we have been operating without a budget for all of this year and its beginning to look like next year also as no budget has even been advanced by the senate (dem controlled)in response to the house's to be debated.....ain't leadership wonderful????? PS I thought JW was a poor pres and know reid is a joke
Group "Anonymous" is asking Bernanke to step down...
The alleged group "Anonymous" has posted a youtube video msg. asking citizens to peacefully occupy public space (ex parks) starting june 14, and not relinquish until Bernanke steps down. http://bit.ly/kptmQW
As i mentioned, there are protests going on June 14 across the country in multiple cities. http://bit.ly/lbU19q.
Disclaimer: I would be shocked to see any meaningful turnout and or will power to occupy the public spaces for more than few hours. Also I have no affiliation with any of the groups or persons. but am simply a u.s citizen and member of this community sharing the info. I am in no way recommending you attend one of these peaceful protests.
To be quite honest i dont think public protests solve much of anything these days. It would be a much better use of time for people to walk away from financial markets cold turkey, until the system is reworked and checks are in place, and serious criminal repercussions are implemented for foul play.
I may stroll by the Wall St location on my lunch break to take photos. no guarantees.
Re: Mauldin explains US/European exposure to the PIGS issue
Les,
"Why, oh why, are banks putting American taxpayers at risk, as these too-big-to-fail banks certainly are?"
I expect this is a rhetorical question, but the simple answer is:
Because they can.
They are only conserved with making money... for themselves. And Bernanke and Treasury have enabled them with the cooperation of "our representatives"in Congress.
For the record I am and have been outraged for some time, but my representatives belong to someone else, I'm afraid.
Grym
Re: composition of "chicago's" cabinet
Illini,
Yes, this has been a long time coming and has under the time of both parties in the White House and with a majority in congress.
Lobbyists work for corporations and other special interests and both parties receive big campaign bucks from the biggest contributors.
Greed and power are bipartisan!
We must change the system and this means a constitutional revision to override the powers in congress and elsewhere.
If we do not, we may see a French-type revolution at some point, or a third world USA as we evaporate like Great Britain did a century ago.
The other alternative I believe is a one-world government a la "1984" or "Brave New World" patterns. Corporations and banks are leading us down that path, IMO.
Grym
Re: Group "Anonymous" is asking Bernanke to step down...
NYUGrad,
I too have little hope that peaceful protest will change anything. Even a One-Term-Obama will matter little if we don't limit the congressional power structure and methods of operating. Just a new lightning rod to deflect from those who engineered this mess.
What is making headlines these days (raising debt limits, the Wiener Mobile, the candidate dances) is just more media fodder. There is no meaningful action likely, IMO.
Most people seem oblivious to currency tiddling and Bernanke gets too little critical coverage to arouse their ire.
Grym
Where All the QE2 Money Went
All,
Give this a read & tell the community if you believe it's true. If so, why would the FED allow this to become public?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-feds-60...
Fed Foreign Bank Bailout
http://tinyurl.com/3rgu8cu
I was astounded, upon reading this ZH article and the claims put forward. There appears to be sufficient factual data in support of the conclusions rendered, but I am no expert. I would very much appreciate other member’s opinions/interpretation of the thesis and main points. Perhaps Kaimu could take a crack at it; it seems right down his alley. Thank you in advance.
Sorry 4ever, we have posted the same link.
dup
...
Re: Fed Foreign Bank Bailout
No problem with posting the same info. Main thing is to determine the truth. These are some serious allegations. There could be more fireworks than normal this 4th of July.
WIR #24
... is up now.
Have a great day. I've been enjoying your comments.
Re: Fed Foreign Bank Bailout
4ever, Johnnie,
I don't know if it is true. All I could find on the topic was from other blog sites.
But we have absolutely no way of knowing anything where the Fed is concerned — no audit and Congress banking oversight is an unreliable monitor as proven by the HB&B and mortgage mess. Mouse-click Money can travel at will. The fox is in the hen house.
One thing in the article I basically have a problem with is the idea that the "...the Fed's role is to stimulate US employment and to keep US inflation modest."
I don't believe the Fed has or can do either of these things, nor do I think they should. The Fed is a problem... not a solution to anything.
Grym
All is well—Just ask a banker.
Not to worry — all is well.
--------
"Our own view is that this is a temporary soft patch: We have fiddled with the US forecast to reflect the recent slippage in the tracking estimate for 2Q GDP (now +2.7%), but continue to show a stronger performance over 2H. On a 4Q/4Q basis, our forecast for GDP growth is now +3.2% in 2011 and +3.0% in 2012. Both figures are little changed from a month ago."
David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley June 10, 2011
--------
I wonder if he has checked their own stock price in the last four years.
Temporary?
Grym
Rubicon - On verge of breakout?
Rubicon's annual meeting, in Toronto, is June 29. I will try to attend if a can breakaway from my other functions.
An upcoming announcement will be made for their bulk sample results as well as a PEA. Will they be announced before the meeting? I don't know but I am fairly certain that some major announcement will occur. There is a lot of negative investment sentiment over the company's handling of the BCSC review (which turned out to be damaging to the RBY price but had little affect of lowering gold estimates at the Red Lake property, F2, the Phoenix. The F2 edges on the western part of Goldcorp's property. Grades of gold have been exceptionally high in this Archean deposit which is "thin veined" but loaded with gold. In fact, it may may in the top ten of the world's richest grade. It seems the deeper they drill, the more gold they uncover. Most permits have already been approved, power lines should be installed on target, and production could as early as Q1 of 2013.
I met Rob McEwen last month in New York and asked him several questions about Rubicon, etc. I did ask why he sold his Rubicon position and he indicated that he had a significant profit from his initial investment and it was time to take the profits for use in growing his other investments which he controlled. I asked Rob if he would ever consider going back into Rubicon. He stated that, if circumstances were right, he wouldn't rule out anything. He described Rubicon as narrow veins, but lots of gold, and he likes Red Lake. The feeling among my other co-investors is that Rob pulled out because the CEO Adamson wouldn't cede control.
At this point, I do have a significant investment in Rubicon.
As for U.S. Gold, I have been actively trading it for scalping purposes. I sold out my last position on Friday for a decent scalp. I think that the current stock weakness is due to Silver weakness whereas Rubicon is more tied to the Gold price although both stocks have stumbled recently. I have spent considerable time talking to US Gold executives the past month and looking forward to their progress. They currently have 15 drills operating in El Gallo which is located in the Sinaloa State of Mexico. Rob owns 20%. They forecast 5 million oz silver/yr and 50,250 oz gold/yr. It is expected to be a shallow open pit mine down to 300 feet in depth, a strip ratio of 1:1 The timeline to production : 2011-12 exploration drilling ($30 million), 2011-12 Mine permitting, Q4 2011 feasibility Study/Resource Update, Late 2012 Construction, 2014 Production.
Their Nevada property on the Cortez Trend, Tonkin Project, has the following timeline to production for Gold Bar: 2011-12, Exploration 3 drills $20 million), 2011-13 Mine Permitting (18 months), Q3 2011 Gold Bar Pre-feasibility, 2013 Construction, Late 2014 (probably 2015) Production. They currently have a treasury of Cash/Securities $69 million, Gold Bullion $12 million, and Silver Bullion $27 million, Total $108 million. I would expect the company to raise more capital before production begins.
I hope this summary of Rubicon and U.S. Gold is helpful.
I also had a nice conversation with Yale Simpson who is the CEO of Extorre and past CEO of Exeter. I like him a lot and he tells it like it is and no BS!
Sunday reflection if you still doubt climate change
This factual video asks us to consider connecting the dots:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embed...
Fukushima explained by Dr. Helen Caldicott
Dr. Caldicott explains in common language how the Fukushima plants failed and how the fuel is leaching out and exploding into the atmosphere, and causing genocide.
"Canada exports two things: wheat for life and plutonium for death." Montreal, March 2011.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ITrXVJMKeQ&NR=1
Interviews on Democracy Now between Monbiot and Caldicott:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNmTLxecfR4&feature...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNmTLxecfR4
On RT: she states: "an unholy alliance between the UN, National Atomic Energy agencies and the World Health Organization"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65ptQASTKCk&NR=1&fe...
More: Tepco 'best case scenario' is to control the plants by early 2012:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_rAX9TzY2A
Re: Sunday reflection if you still doubt climate change
Thx for the video. enjoyed it. there is no question the climate is changing. and as prices don't trade in vacuums, it is even more inter-related with planet earth.
I am no scientist, but when record snow falls prompted my friend to say, how can there be global warming if snow is falling more and more. than my other friend, who is a scientist engineer, simply asked "What do you need for more snow? and where is this additional supply coming from?"
On the course we are headed, i have no doubt without change of trajectory, we will see movies like "the road," based on book by Cormac McCarthy, http://amzn.to/jvpSBN, become reality. I just hope not in my lifetime.
Re: Sunday reflection if you still doubt climate change
That is one eerie book. Really thought provoking. Not sure I could watch the movie!
Re: Sunday reflection if you still doubt climate change
It would be easier to take concerns in this video more seriously if it weren't for the intentionally creepy monotone narration and eery background music. The video offers no practical ideas for improving the situation but instead pretty much concludes that stopping all economic activity is the best course of action for saving the environment. Just good shock value for those who don't want to actually make practical improvements to our collective behavior. If we followed most of the smugly insinuated advice of the narrator we'd stifle all economic activity and die of starvation anyways.
Wisconsin Period
Hi All - Heck we have been warming for 12,000 years. Sure beats the alternative, which was the scare de jour back in the 1970's. Happy Trading
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsinian_Glaciation
http://climatelessons.blogspot.com/2010/12/wallcha...
Re: Sunday reflection if you still doubt climate change
The book almost sounds like a sequel to Jonathan Schell's "Fate of the Earth" in 1982. It must be a more vivid, brutal depiction of what could follow. Schell's book was so pithy that it got me and many others deeply into the Nuclear Freeze movement. The movie? I'd be tempted but don't want nightmares. Don't like horror movies either.
Re: Sunday reflection if you still doubt climate change
BillieSundance,
I believe thinking for ourselves and raising awareness was the point. In the face of 'no problem' campaigns by big Oil, Big Ag and Government, this author suggests individuals will need to get involved in decisions that affect our planet's future. There is no suggestion of stopping all economic activity.
Luggie,
As a geologist you will know that for the last 12,000 years things have been heating up. But so has our population - which has created staggering pollution of our world. According to some earth economists our current resource use needs 1.5 earths to sustain itself. Something will give. Likely humanity.
Banks, PM miners & a full-out Fed/ECB/BoJ QE3 play
Bill, I am assuming that the banksters will get the nod on QE3 long-before we do. Will bank share prices tell us that QE3 is on the way?
I would like to be "all in" on this play, but looking for appropriate market behaviour to help me understand when. I can see when miners are basing out and then lifting. Should I be looking for banks to similarly find a bottom or will they have other issues that negates their usefulness as a tell on QE3?
The 10 cardinal rules of trading from Ari Kiev
Ari Kiev's "Trading to Win - The Psychology of Mastering the Markets"
The Ten Cardinal Rules
1. Learn to function in a tense, unstructured, and unpredictable environment.
2. Be an independent thinker versus a conventional thinker
3. Work out a way to handle your emotions and maintain objectivity.
4. Don't rely on hope and fear in the conventional sense
5. Work continuously to improve yourself, giving importance to self-examination and recognizing that your personality and way of responding to events are a critical part of the game. This requires continuous coaching.
6. Modify your normal responses to certain events.
7. Be willing to face problems, understand them, and recognize that they are in some way related to your behavior.
8. Know when problems can be resolved and then apply methods to solve them. That may mean giving up some control in order to gain a different control. It may mean changes in your personality, learning self-reliance, or giving up independence and ego to become part of a trading team.
9. Understand the larger framework in which trading occurs - how the complexity of the marketplace and your personality both must be taken into account in order to develop the mastery of trading.
10. Develop the right mind-set for trading - a willingness to commit to the kinds of changes in personal habits and beliefs that will drastically alter your life. To do this requires a willingness to surrender to the forces of the game. In order to be able to play at a maximum level, you have to let go of your ego and your need to have things your way.
---------------------------
I just needed to type up a new paper copy of that as my daughter is busy picking away at the copy stuck to my desk. The only written piece of advise I keep glued in front of me daily.
Re: Sunday reflection if you still doubt climate change
Loannetter,
"I believe thinking for ourselves and raising awareness was the point."
The video presented a single viewpoint and visuals were a condensation of bad scenes — not conducive to thought as much as emotion. While I have no doubt we've been misbehaving and causing massive, long term destruction of waterways, oceans, forests and air — many in the scientific community have strong reservations regarding climate change or its causes.
Every time I read a sweeping statement of agreement, or in this case a visual overload of natural disasters my questions are increased. Thinking for myself is a habit and hard sell puts me off.
We need to stop burning stuff, making plastic stuff with a half life of eternity and cut consumption of toxic materials. Nothing else makes sense to me. But our record keeping is far too short a span to make realistic comparisons on climate change.
Grym
Re: Sunday reflection if you still doubt climate change
Ot was an OP Editorial piece. If you think recent disasters are overblown then that's your opinion. Some would say our record keeping on financial disasters is too short a span to make realistic comparisons either.