Bill Cara's Blog for Jun 29, 2011 [See Post-Close report]

Bill,

Thanks for the @mention. That chart has a bit of a "cup and handle" look to it.

I've downloaded Zattoo TV which I can watch through my browser. If anyone knows a better TV setup in a browser I'd like to know about it thanks.

http://zattoo.com

A live blog I've found to follow the day's proceedings suggest the vote will pass at this point.

http://www.france24.com/en/20110629-greek-parliame...

CNBC just suggested the vote passes by 2 voices at this time.

edit: CNBC analyst puts on gas mask for the camera. I dunno if she is having flashbacks to Baghdad or wants to freak out viewers. You can't make this stuff up.

The PM is on the podium giving his speech. The vote was supposed to follow this, but the opposition leader is up now. So it may come pre-market or during amateur hour.

To while away this time I found a vid of Jack Schwager speaking on winning methods of the market wizard:

http://traderhabits.com/2011/06/jack-schwager-winn...

-13% premarket

The PEA is based on an updated mineral resource estimate containing an Indicated Mineral Resource of 1,028,000 tonnes grading 14.5 g/t gold (477,000 ounces of gold) and an Inferred Mineral Resource of 4,230,000 tonnes grading 17.0 g/t gold (2,317,000 ounces of gold)

*(GR) GREECE PARLIAMENT PASSES FIVE-YEAR AUSTERITY PLAN - FINANCIAL PRESS
- Vote has exceeded the 151 yes votes required for passage

Hi All - Oh well - guess I will continue the long for the time being. Clearly a good deposit in elephant country - "If the data are not capped, the totals are 1.135 M tonnes at 17.2 g/t Au for 0.634 M oz for the Indicated category and 4.129 M tonnes at 21.2 g/t Au for 2.842 M oz for the Inferred category. Happy Trading

Also of note is that the RSI(14) on GDX:GLD is now above 50 for the first time since early April after double bottoming below 30 in both mid-May and mid/late-June.

I forget who gave the heads up... it is up another 15% today... a big thanks

NLS really getting going here....there was no fundamental reason for a 50% drop in share price...the only reason it dropped was because of forced selling by its largest shareholder, who had to distribute shares as part of a pre-arranged agreement when they removed the CEO.

My data provider must have displayed a false print... the 15% wasn't accurate... but satisfied nonetheless

It took a while to restart this cycle!

FD: long miners, UNG and short dollar.

Sadly, I was stopped from my position before it could work. Even more sadly, MITK was not the only one. FCX was another.

More than copper picking up, it was important to note that copper never broke down. That was the canary.

ALOHA!!

GOLDMINCO(GCP:TSXV)-One of my junior positions is being bought out by one of my ASX listed mining companies STRAITS RESOURCES(SRQ:ASX) for a 160%+ gain. In 2008 I met with Straits Resources execs on my Australia trip to Perth and we spoke about GCP, I bought shares after that meeting. Their offices on Ventnor Street were one floor below Barrick Gold Aust. At least some mining companies are taking action to buy some of these discounted junior share prices. Sometimes it pays to look and see what juniors the mining companies hold major share positions in.

STRAITS RESOURCES LIMITED ANNOUNCES BID FOR REMAINING SHARES OF GOLDMINCO CORPORATION

Perth, Australia – Straits Resources Limited (“Straits”) announced today that it intends to make an offer to acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Goldminco Corporation (TSX-V: GCP) (“Goldminco”) that it does not already own at an offer price of Cdn$0.10 in cash per share. Straits currently owns, directly or indirectly, approximately 71.33% of the issued and outstanding common shares of Goldminco. The offer price represents a premium of approximately 82% over the closing price of the common shares on the Toronto Venture Exchange on May 24, 2011, the last trading day prior to this announcement.

Straits has entered into a lock-up agreement with Anglo Pacific Group PLC (“Anglo”), the second largest shareholder of Goldminco, pursuant to which Anglo, subject to certain limited exceptions, has irrevocably agreed to deposit and not withdraw its and its affiliates common shares under the offer. Anglo owns, directly or indirectly, approximately 17.01% of Goldminco.

Provided that Anglo deposits its common shares under the offer as required by the terms of the lock-up agreement, Straits will have a sufficient number of common shares to acquire all of the common shares not deposited under the offer by way of a subsequent acquisition transaction. Straits currently intends to proceed with a transaction to acquire the balance of the common shares following the completion of the offer.

Fourth day in a row and MSM is finally noticing. Good volume again, TLT is not looking good. If not for the Fed, who is that marginal buyer of 20 year treasuries yielding 4% - when CPI-U was over 5% during this last quarter?

One thought: it could just be an unwinding of the "flight to safety" from the whole Greece affair also.

"Let's not start kissing each other yet"

Ever the sober realist eh Craig? :)

I actually just sold off SLW calls for the 2nd time today at +40% profit. Something akin to a sell signal being generated here. Specifically SLV's hourly MACD reading is being blocked at the 0 line, remaining negative.

That's twice in two weeks that I've managed $400 days with SLW and I am stuck somewhere between Vad and Bill's position - eager to book some profits while letting other positions develop. Something I'll have to work out for myself.

I'll watch things into close to determine whether I want to take up another position today. Still holding December 45's.

Cut my RBY holding in half. The fundamentals look ok but the investor response today is not.

Judging by UXG, looks like some profit taking happening here. Let's see if support at these levels hold. Ditto the indexes.

(V and MA are halted, circuit breaker. Idiocy in action)

Having seen MA behave like that, I was wondering what mischief a Wall St. shark can do by ripping a stock up or down and having the SEC freeze it.

I can't think of anything off the top of my head, but I'm sure someone will find good reason to misuse the rule.

These credit cards and Nike yesterday. Some strange behaviour happening here.

I looked at the weekly 1 year chart and I see a big volume week in early December so I'm looking for this to be an island bottom and at least a retest of the trendline off the top @6.34 to about the 5.75 level. Ny stop below the mid October low of 3.45 and I am in at 3.82. Risk reward looks good to me

I dunno. The sort of action I note in small bio-pharma, not in big consumer sector stocks pulling themselves off a bottom. But I have no experience in these things. I guess that's why these companies are market leaders. Eager to see how EOQ plays out.

Unfortunately I don't have the means to short MA, cause like NKE yesterday it's gonna pull back inside the BB's tomorrow.

Hi Team... you could be correct, but other legacy legal problems may be lurking... there is a mountain of foreclosures they really still haven't dealt with, and the problems in Europe are just a taste of what awaits the US ( see Flecks 'The Coming Funding Crisis ' )...

Dave - Yes it does in part depend upon which side of the fence you sit: double dip or continued slow to medium growth, for the US. I guess I'm the latter. Buried in today's news, I found it interesting to note that BAC actually guided above street estimates on earnings for the quarter. Given the drubbing the stock has had for all of 2011 and 2010, I think its due for a nice bounce and is actually ripe for buying and holding. And typically what I've found with the leading sectors of a bull market is the following:

(1) They're almost never the leading sector of the next bull market
(2) They usually crash the hardest and ruin investor confidence in them
(3) They usually then have a really strong reflexive rebound and people jump back in, thinking the good ole times are here again
(4) After the rebound and people get excited reality then settles in
(5) After reality settles in, the sector begins to fade once again
(6) All the while news continues to be bad and sentiment grows even worse than before the crash and the sector really takes it on the chin
(7) It's at this time that its time to buy and hold

In most of the bull to bear markets that I've looked at, I've seen the same exact price pattern / sentiment / news flow...its the financials turn this time around and I think we're at point (7) above.

Above.

TOF -

Definitely if there's no more black swans to be had, and the Fed is able to engineer moderate inflation in domestic real estate without any effects from US debt issues, or european debt issues, we will eventually inflate our way out of our current mess and BAC's bad assets will magically turn good again.

My counter to this scenario: Japan. They tried exactly this approach, and their RE market just continued going down. 20 years later, it's STILL down. Their experience suggests you can't blow a RE bubble twice in a row, and an RE bubble is what BAC needs to come back.

One further observation. If we follow your 1-7 point model, (and another way of saying this is one of those wave things - wave 1 down, wave 2 rebound, wave 3 real capitulation), what BAC price points do you assign #2, #3, and #5?

I see the 2009 crash as point #2 ($2.5), point #3 is April 2010 ($17.5) and right now we're currently engaged in #5 in progress - wave 3 down. Next step: restructuring, a total zero. After that, THEN its time to buy banking.

Last point. You can't effectively value a company when the financial reporting regulations allow the reporting companies to lie wholesale about their balance sheets. In this situation, only the insiders know the truth. "Investing" in such a situation - simply gambling, in my opinion. Do you feel lucky?

Ok, the real last point. I think from a trading perspective, BAC might well make us all money if we bought it now, and our "holding period" wasn't too long, assuming nothing blew up in the interim. BAC has been hit hard, as you observe, and things don't move in a straight line to zero. I guess its all in the holding period.

But I don't feel lucky. :)

I have not seen the following info posted. If I overlooked it, my apologies. The Winnipeg Free Press reported the following:

VANCOUVER - Rubicon Minerals Corporation (TSX:RMX) and West Kirkland Mining Inc. (TSXV:WKM) have struck a deal in West Kirkland can earn a majority stake in gold mineral rights held by Rubicon in Nevada.

The deal, announced Monday, requires West Kirkland to spend between $5 million and $15 million on exploration over four years on the properties, which cover more than 900 square kilometres in the Long Canyon Trend of northeastern Nevada.

The transaction between the two Vancouver-based junior miners also givers Rubicon a significant interest in any future discovery.

(BTW, I have posted before, but not recently and registered again because of obsolete/changed info).

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mint-start-sellin...

Austerity is the talk on a cereal box. Religion is the smile on the bankster bag holder dogs.

The Papendaraupoopus familia mafiosa still run the country like the 2 bit third world generalisimos that they have always been. Bond bag-holders (eurotrash banking scum) get a cash infusion from frau Schmitt to pay the interest on Paribas debt while the Greek grape stompers get gassed as a reward.

The Turks must be laughing and sighing in relief that they were shunned for membership for so many years from that august body of Euro Nincompooperie.

Not that I dismiss the extravagant former/current socialistic hubris of the Greek welfare state. I can only condemn the eurocentric-idiocy of 'ALL inclusiveness' that caused them to 'look the other way' while the Greeks cooked the books! Seems similar in many aspects to our own system of checks, balances and (NON) regulation.

How will it end? It will end in a miasmic cloud of international interparty distrust. In short, very badly. But afterward, when we clear the pond scum and see the true reflection of ourselves, capital will once again be allowed to be allocated to its highest and best uses. This assumes of course that the system somehow rids itself of the international interventionalists who have used the public purse for personal gains. Perhaps I dream!

ALOHA!!

In my book GM is MAIDEN LANE IV!!!

Hi Kaimu, agree, the first three were not enough. Timmy G was over these too I believe. Insult to injury, GM's GM wants the 50% paying taxes to kick in another $7500 tax credit for those who purchase one of these volts. That's also redistributive.
Regards
Earl