Bill Cara's Blog for Jun 3, 2011 [See Post-Close report]

Protestors hung a huge banner across the building to denounce policies which they said would "turn workers into modern slaves".

We're about to see democracy in raw form in Greece.

Non-farm 54K jobs gained.

Unemployment rate up to 9.1%.

All in all you have a throttling back of job growth. We have a slowdown in the economy.

Question is will it carry over to market prices?

Yep, he's "always been an equities guy", now recommends PG, MRK, Utilities for their dividends over bank savings for fixed income(widows & orphans)savers.

Looks like the market is disappointed there were not more McJobs. S&P futures 1296. Sad times in Bernankia!

http://bit.ly/mHXIJb

Please take note of where Yemen is geographically situated.

With the recent candle pattern similar to May 2010 and the position of the 13/34 EMA now looking to cross over we could see a plunge today.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&st=2009-09-25&en=%28today%29&id=p02413455799&a=234563339&r=2117&cmd=print

We've seen so much inflation over the last few years, especialy in food & fuel. High energy prices killed retail this last quarter. Inflation has been very much REAL and is hammering savers. 10 year under 3%? Bank savings are almost nil.

So is it time for the pendulum to swing back the other way? If banks are forced to begin (like this will happen, right?) marking their fictional balance sheets down to reality, economy continues the slow, inflation subsides, etc... could we face deflation later this year?

I personally don't see QE3 now or even if the markets drop significantly. I do believe interest rates will be maintained near zero (or below?) for an extended period, perhaps even years (think Japan).

JOYG - PT Lifted from $112 to $116 @ RBC. Outperform

RIMM - PT Lowered from $60 to $45 @ UBS. Neutral

Touted this morning, GS upgrade, et al. Now pulled back a bit. Will it float?

BRCM - estimates, target lowered at Gleacher. BRCM estimates were cut through 2012. Company is exposed to Nokia. Buy rating and new $44 price target.

It seems the Congress must now do the CFTC's job of mandating position limits as required by the Dodd/Frank law.

"An outspoken U.S. senator who criticized the country's futures regulator for failing to crackdown on energy speculation said on Thursday he will introduce legislation next week that will force the agency to act. Senator Bernie Sanders said the legislation would force the head of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to use emergency authority to impose limits on the positions investors can take in crude oil, gasoline and heating oil. The move could occur without support from the majority of the agency's commissioners. The bill also would raise margin requirements in the markets and force big Wall Street houses to live within prescribed limits. "We cannot allow Wall Street speculators to continue to rip off the American people at the gas pump any longer," said Sanders, an Independent from Vermont. The Sanders legislation, which was still being drafted, would increase margin requirements for speculative trading in crude oil and heating oil to 25 percent. In addition, it would end all bona-fide hedging exemptions for bank holding companies including any of their affiliates and subsidiaries, such as Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), JP Morgan Chase (JPM.N), Citigroup (C.N), Bank of America (BAC.N), and Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX)."

http://tinyurl.com/6zlm98q

Raising margin requirements will squeeze the small players out. Is that what they want?

Sensible position limits is what's needed.

Between listening to CNBC, reading message boards, and reading blogs like this, you'd think we have had 5 months in a row of -400k jobs prints with plunging ISM and PMI reports, durable goods plunging, retail sales cratering and the economy on the depths of a depression.

Last I checked, the recent "soft patch" of econ reports still point to a growing economy. Just 1 month ago, the jobs number was another in a string of 150-250k + jobs growth and ISM and PMI numbers were booming (by the way, they're still well tothe expansion category). Does anyone else find it more than coincidence that the recent slowdown in growth (yes, we're still growing) happened right around the same time that the Japan earthquake hit and several regional natural disasters hit?

I still think we rally hard once these short term effects wear off and the econ reports regain their strong growth trajectory that they had before these natural disasters hit. I think earnings will be well over $100 per share in 2012 and the market will be in the 1,500's. People that are shorting here based on a small subset of reports showing a temporary slowdown in growth (yes, again, growth and not contraction) in my mind better have a very short time frame in mind.

I want to see something positive and effective come out of this. Ultimately it's Congress' job to set U.S. market rules. If the CFTC will not or can not enforce the rules, then Congress must override them, get rid of them, or take other actions to level the playing field. We've seen manipulation of just about all futures markets over the last few years, such as Enron, Brian Hunter/Amaranth, etc... and really nothing has changed. SOX was supposed to help, but all it did was impose burdensome legislation at a high cost.
It's time to fix things.

add CFR

No one wants to loan to Greece, but the troika have agreed to fund the interest payments on existing borrowings. Yes, once again, excellent news.

LOL... notice also that with all the "good report" blabber, they pushed further the time of the next loan payment. Seems to me like they are desperately trying to jawbone their way out of it.

TOF,

I for one appreciate adding balance to the discourse - overwhelming pessimistic (or optimistic for that matter) tone is hardly helpful without opposite side of arguments being presented. Things are never fully certain and strictly determined.

I wouldn't, however, dismiss bear case as merely based on "a small subset of reports showing a temporary slowdown in growth." As I see it, there are two school of thoughts at this point.

One is, we have solid recovery underway, and current slowdown is just that, temporary setback based on Japan disaster, natural cycle of advance-pullback, Europe worries etc. Economy growth is healthy, based on actual improvement in most sectors, companies are strong, demand is growing naturally. As soon as the set of worries clears up, we continue seeing economy and market climb.

Another is: whole recovery up to this point is a sham, nothing but temporary and very weak effect of the government/Fed money influx in economy; this injection does nothing for the long term and causes harm by crowding out private investment, skyrocketing commodities and burdening the economy with more debt. As public appetite for more injection disappears making it difficult to continue, as withdrawal of stimulus looms, as Europe troubles grow larger, economy and market are going to tank badly.

First school sees current pullback as buying opportunity. Second sees it as beginning of major decline.

Just thought I'd try and give a summary in as objective way as I can.

They don't make it easy on purpose.

I just love this country (sarcasm directed at elected "leadership") as I believe NONE of the dozen largest oil companies in the world are US, also believe if you take total energy reserves (nat gas, coal, oil, uranium, etc, etc) the U.S.A. has the largest reserves in the world.........somehow we just don't seem to be able to get there from here.....anything to do w/leadrship/agendas????? stocvkwise...WMB (30.6)pays a 20 cent div next week and one can sell the 31 call for this month (two weeks) for .42 cents......it plans to split into two companies....DYOD of course.. personally short the 30 puts.......

Sure... it's this surreal casual manner in which the comment was made that amused me, almost as if it was some kind of little formal thing to do, just fill out this form and you are good...

My take is that most of the people on the bearish side of things either
(a) are traders and their opinion is getting in the way
or
(b) are living in an area that is deeply affected by the housing downturn

I believe that anyone that works in the business world has seen plenty of signs of optimism. My own company has seen a significant uptick in business since the spring of last year and it hasn't given up. But more importantly the world's economy is stronger than people expect and that has a bigger bearing on the stock market than our national economy, which is growing slowly.

Above

Your disclaimer to your answer was longer than your answer

... and that's not an accident - I consider that disclaimer more important for the traders than answer. In fact, a foundation of successful navigation of the markets. Opinionless trading, you know... read all about it in
http://www.traderwizard.com/a-taoist-trader-course :)

$SPX
http://bit.ly/kfDeEt

$bkx
http://bit.ly/m56OLr

And lastly AAPL - everyone's darling. Once/if that cracks, watch out.
http://bit.ly/kkZ6kZ

ALOHA!!

Try these facts on for size when it comes to what each US citizen pays at the pump. Once again government and bankers make out quite well at the pumps, even though they did not lift a finger to create the products we all pump into our vehicles every day.

From the NACS:

Fuels Expenses
The federal excise tax on gasoline is 18.4 cents per gallon and 24.4 cents per gallon for diesel fuel.

In January 2011, motor gasoline taxes averaged 48.1 cents per gallon and diesel fuel taxes averaged 53.1 cents per gallon.

Factoring in all gasoline sales in 2009 transactions — whether the customer paid by cash, check or by either debit or credit card — credit and debit card fees averaged 4.7 cents per gallon.

Now lets take a look at the infrastructure oil companies must provide and maintain so you can fill up your tank and complain about the prices ...

Petroleum Infrastructure
The U.S. petroleum distribution industry includes:

* 148 refineries
* 38 Jones Act vessels (U.S. flag ships that move products between U.S. ports)
* 3,300 coastal, Great Lakes and river tank barges
* 200,000 rail tank cars
* 1,400 petroleum product terminals
* 100,000 tanker trucks
* Approximately 200,000 miles of oil and refined product pipelines

Now here are total fuel outlets(gas stations) ...

Fueling Outlets
There were 159,006 total retail fueling sites in the United States in 2010.

A total of 117,297 convenience stores sell motor fuels in the United States. This represents 80 percent of the 146,341 convenience stores in the country.

Overall, 58 percent (67,504 stores) of the country’s 117,297 convenience stores selling fuels are one-store operations. By contrast, about 1 percent are owned and operated by the integrated oil companies, of which only two (ChevronTexaco and Shell) still are committed to selling fuel at the retail level.

What is missing from the above listed "fuel data" is the cost oil companies must endure to explore and develop new sources of oil and gas. Not to mention R&D and government/EPA compliance costs.

Those exploration costs are tremendous and highly risky, of which none of that risk capital is taken on by the US Congress, the US FED. No central bank or government has any "skin" in the commodities game whatsoever, yet they tax commodities as if they were full 100% partners.

None of the above infrastructure for production both wholesale and retail was paid for with government dollars like TARP and US Treasuries. None of it was handed to oil companies by the US FED at the discount window! What the US Treasury and the US FED do in collusion is create huge "value destruction" in our money. Neither the US Treasury nor the US FED take on any risk as they are funded by debt, which is future generations OPM. Tax revenues are "risk free" revenues the US Treasury collects so that the US Congress can abuse the fruits of our labor at their own discretion. I think America could survive just fine without a few Goldman Sachs and Citibanks, but I doubt we could survive with less Exxons and Chevrons. Oil companies have to be fiscally responsible, but with the corrupt monetary system we now have bankers and politicians do not. That should be self evident by now with the many "banking and political crises" we have had since 1913.

These are extremely dangerous people at the US Congress and the US FED who actually are the cause of the supposed "speculators" through monetary value destruction. These "speculators" are using leverage to make up for the lost value of a USD purchasing power. Who the heck are "we" here at the Bill Cara blog to criticize speculators when we engage in the exact same tactics only on a much smaller scale with much less insider info and much less political and monetary clout? None of us here are members of the US FED cartel and none of us know any Senators or US Treasury Secretaries personally. You cannot expect global citizens, both rich and poor, to sit by idly while their entire lifetime of labor is devalued to nothing. Even the "elite" have to spend US Dollars and Euros and Pounds and Loonies ... Their only advantage is that they sit much closer to the money spigot at the central banks than we do. TRICKLE DOWN IS A BITCH!

ALOHA!!

"I believe that anyone that works in the business world has seen plenty of signs of optimism.

That is not true ...

The largest business sector in the USA is small business who generate a majority of jobs and tax revenues. As a member of the NFIB I get "Optimism Reports". The last two months the optimism level of US small business has moved above 90, which is considered extremely low optimism levels not seen since the depths of the 2009 crash. If you consider that data then optimism is low for most businesses in America.

Sure some businesses are doing better than others, but you have to look at the BIG PICTURE and to me the big picture has to include the NFIB data, which represents the majority of small business in America. To accept the word of the BLS or Bernanke is to accept politically and monetarily corrupted data. It only follows that if our monetary system is corrupt then the monetary and political entities in control are as well.

You nailed the very essence of the problem with Greece. It's not just the country with debt problem and external organizations with aid - it's a conflict between conditions for that aid (austerity measures) on one side, and unability/unwillingness of the population to accept those conditions on another. Thus, speaking in Greek, Greece finds itself between Scilla and Haribda. I have hard time seeing how default can be avoided.

The writing is also on the wall for HB&B too.

If nothing changes people will walk away and turn their back on "Investing"

Without participation HB&B cannot survive long. It just may take longer here in U.S. as Americans have this false perception of too much to lose if they fight back. I still know people who appallingly watch Jim Cramer!!!

Had to save them, and give them a 1 hour crash course on charts, and direct them to Jon Stewart's interview of cramer. I turned them onto this blog too, but they are not ready to read the WIR and understand any of it. These are well to do professionals, doctors/pharmacists.

Govt will not do anything to HB&B. It is up to us.

For me I like the WIR as is. And its free! :)

it took about 2-3 months of reading each week for lightbulbs to turn on on several sections a few yrs ago. There are still many things i have not mastered but is a challenge i can partake on my own pace.

Learning should be a challenge. If my friends cannot start on the basics on stockcharts.com and books, then delve into your WIR, then maybe they are best suited by finding a reputable broker, or CTAB advisors.

Case in point, after my 1 hour tutorial on how to use charts and MA's, two days later, my friend emails me "My family has a lot of money in S&P and Citi, should we sell?"

I told him i am not qualified to give advise and he should look at the chart and report back to me. but most people like to be told what to do, or told what they want to hear.

Nothing you change in WIR will change that. Learning is a two way street. students must put the effort to learn from you or other resources.

NYUGrad,

"We need real wage growth. The unemployment is much higher than the govt stats suggest. We also need those lost earning to come back. but i am afraid those jobs are not coming back."

Things will not likely be as they were 30,40, or 50 years ago. However, we can compete on a level playing field.

If we:

A.) Require all imported products to be produced under the same restrictions we impose on our companies — no child labor, EPA, OSHA, etc or they can't come in, or

B.) Remove those restrictions on domestic manufacturing.

C.) Stop giving tax-free wavers to the "Big Boys" like GE and make them compete on equal terms with small businesses who don't get special favored treatment.

D.) Do away with lobbyist written legislation and make Congress be the lobbyists We for the People as they are supposed to be. They are supposed to work for us, but get special consideration which places them above the other citizens.

Elizabeth Warren (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau head) was written up in "The Week" magazine I got today. (Not yet available on their website, but when it is I will post the link.

"When Patrick McHenry, a subcommittee chairman who had already accused her of lying, tried to make her stay longer, she said, "Congressman, you are causing problems." The "breach of decorum" left old hands dumbfounded.

Another quote "Fearful that Warren would expose the subterfuges and deceptions that pass for banking these days, the banks have resorted to "name-calling". She might be the only Washington bureaucrat they fear."

Grym

NYUGrad,

The job categories listed are specialized beyond the vast majority of people who are out of work.

"Adapt or perish" can amount to "Let then eat cake."

The companies here who auctioned their jobs (my former clients) used a version of Adapt or Perish as justification for firing thousands of people here in Illinois. In several meetings I listened to sob stories of, "We have no alternative, if we don't shift operations to Mexico, China, South Africa — we will go out of business. I had stock in these companies, saw the proxy statements, know what bonuses and options they got and what they got when selling out all those "expendable" people.

All those managers have move away — the workers are stuck with a mortgage, no prospects and no possibility of switching to any of those jobs listed in the article.

The bailout dollars could have gone to massive projects employing tens of thousands instead of a handful of 3-piece suits. The national infrastructure is turning us into a gigantic pothole. My city looks like some third-world country today. A block from where my office was for 25 years there are five office buildings in a row empty and for sale. We had a score of empty factories, we're closing schools and laying off cops.

I want to see a banker or two hang for all this and throw in a few congressmen.

Yeah, I'm pessimistic! How about adapt, perish or fight back!

Grym

Bill,

It seems to me your WIR is perfectly pitched for the main target audience of this blog, sincerely interested and engaged investors and traders. One cannot be all things to all people without giving up some of your identity.

If you want to appeal to a wider audience, first define: 1. who they are 2. why you want to appeal to them. 3. what are their needs and comprehension levels.

One thing: You do give a way a staggering amount of information! There is a school of thought that you are devaluing your service by offering so much free. Asking people to sign up for a free report with permission to at least communicate more directly (investor's circle e-news) might build a bit of loyalty and dare I say respect for your incredible knowledge. I am not suggesting you start 'charging' per se - but there are ways to ask for more buy-in for serious students/investors who are ready to take courses or next steps.

Another: consider an outline (w/links to sections) or executive summary up front so people can hit the high spots of your WIR. That would get a new reader to go further and learn at their own pace. For me, some of the details are eye-glazing although I get a sense of what is going on by osmosis.

You could post salient points that non professionals can absorb higher up...or post in a separate place they can get at easily without having to wade into the deep end. Just my 2 cents.

http://bit.ly/kEDEK6

Not long before $ finds potential support at 73 for a db. $ up and we could really get moving down to the 200ma's on the indexes.

With the sort of volatility we're experiencing in this liquidity driven market, the low targets and high targets for the year seem quite feasible.

ALOHA!!

" the biggest gains coming from mostly jobs that did not exist 10 yrs ago.

I'm going to use a micro-economic parable to explain a macro-economic phenomenon in the debt and job markets.

Yesterday I was on my Quickbooks charts looking at my sales YTD for 2011 compared to 2010. I noticed that our sales YTD for 2011 are more than double my sales for 2010. We recently hired two part time workers because our sales are up. You will probably say I should be optimistic and jumping for joy. I am for us, but the reality is that our sales went up because of "debt attrition" not competition. Just numbers got shuffled, nothing more! I believe this is what major corporations are experiencing as well.

Let me explain ...

Our sales went up because a nursery went out of business and we got their customers. We hired two employees but the nursery that went out of business lost two and the two owners lost their business and income. They went out of business because they suffered malinvestment by using debt to expand at the wrong end of the business cycle. A double whammy! They were not prudent, gambled and lost, but they magnified their gamble using debt and so their losses were magnified as well. The bank that made those loans now has a loss on their books and the owners of the company are now unemployed and cannot collect unemployment because they did not pay into the system. The BLS sees there would be a zero sum gain in jobs because two employees were lost and two hired in the same month. There are two full time employees lost and two part time employees hired and two owners not counted at all. In reality there are four unemployed workers if you count the two owners and the two full time workers they once employed. Yet the BLS numbers would show 0. Then add in two full time workers were replaced by two part time workers so hours worked are severely reduced and so are tax revenues. The self employed end up on food stamps(EBT) and welfare if they do not find employment. Or they move in with a relative or friend or they are homeless. They do not qualify for unemployment benefits. Being an employer is high risk. Uncle Sam assumes none of that risk.

As we hear about JP Morgan hiring and their revenues increase remember that they were the direct hand picked beneficiaries of a 100 year old company's bankruptcy; Bear Stearns(BSC). Same goes for Bank America and all the other banks who survived the "Credit Crisis". Some 450+ regional banks have collapsed since 2007 and 1-8 still go out of business every weekend. Those bank employees are still needed to tend to the new accounts. All that has happened is that numbers are shuffled as there is no overall gain in jobs, GDP or the economy. If anything it is an overall methodology driven negative bias.

Now what if that nursery did not use debt to expand. They either would have been forced to expand at a slower rate or not expand at all, either way they probably would have a better chance of being in business now. We chose not to expand at all until this year and our current expansion is not being funded by debt. In fact we chose to reduce the nursery size in late 2006 and consolidate. The complete opposite of most of our competitors. It comes back to the same strategy that JP Morgan is using to be the last bank standing. The longer we can survive without the debt attrition "boat anchor" the more likely we will be one of the few orchid nurseries left. Of course JP Morgan has many "get out of jail free" cards and we do not. We actually have to be diligent and asses risk. JP Morgan uses OPM ... we have to use our own capital. Its night and day!

On a side note, I think a lot of small business failures are ego based. They get into business for the wrong reasons, mainly thinking it will boost their image and self esteem. That's called "stinkin' thinkin'". Fame and fortune it is not! Yet stop a second and imagine the egos of Jamie Dimon(JPM) and Lloyd Blankfein(GS). They make God blush!

This is why banks and other imprudent and fiscally corrupt enterprises must be allowed to fail no matter how big and politically powerful they become. Free markets are much more self regulating; only the best survive. Since the introduction of the US FED we have not seen truly free markets in America. All we have seen is political largess, debt and corruption grow to unbelievable and unprecedented proportions. Not only will there be another Q3 but I believe there will be TARP 2! Since when is POMO new or any of the other myriad tools of intervention? None have to be labeled as such as the US Treasury issues QE and TARP and POMO every day! Nobody even glances at US Treasury Statements anyway, not even Timothy Geithner! Now that's audacity for you ...

Just to take one of his points —

Temp hiring on the increase: OK, how many were full time within the past year? How many in the number are short term temp (seasonal) workers.

Like all data reported these days data quality needs to be certified. (In this case I think the author is certifiable :^)

Who was it? Oh, yeah, James Glassman went for DOW 36,000 in 2000 and is now writing pap for Kiplinger magazine. It's cover says Business Week Best Seller, (No, I didn't buy it then either.)

I'd like to see this guy on Jon Stewart like Cramer.

Way to go CNBC!

Grym

"Our sales went up because a nursery went out of business and we got their customers. We hired two employees but the nursery that went out of business lost two and the two owners lost their business and income."

Bingo!

To me all data is suspect until unless I know how it is collected — what is asked and how it's asked matters.

What's included or excluded count equally.

My eldest son worked for a consumer research company for about ten years in Data Control. This was a company which did its best to provide accurate info so companies could make well reasoned decisions. The unvarnished, non-political truth. No parsing allowed. He once spotted a field data collector who was manufacturing sales data rather than visiting the actual stores. (Computers can be great tools for detecting as well as cheating.)

We know the unemployment numbers are doctored, banks have not valued the mortgages, CEOs are the last person to tell the condition of their businesses.

The media is ALL for show and sponsor placation. Beware of the "Sell Side" Bill talks about.

Grym

As someone who is an unsophisticated investor, retired, middle 60s and noticeably slowing down, been doing this investing thing for only 3 years and who sits squarely in the middle of the "mom and pop" category using a portion of our nest egg, I'll just toss in my two cents.

First of all to say that I've hitched-my-wagon to this blog and Bill is the lead horse. I try mightily to learn from him and others here and I dare-say also try to read between the lines for certain securities to buy. There are others here who occasionally name-drop a company and if the company mentioned meets my criteria (low or zero debt being a principle filter) I sometimes buy shares. Even though that is not the aim of this blog and is probably causing Bill to flinch at that, I would venture to say that others such as myself do the same.
It's not a perfect system for stock picking (I'm still way underwater with Kinross at 18 ;-O), but what system is?
So far, my lead horse and others here have increased my overall position by over 24% (on track to double my portfolio's worth in 3 years) so taken altogether, SOMETHING is working for me directly because of this blog. If it wasn't for this community I probably would still be watching "Fast Money" and The Nightly Business report and letting them and their guests lead me around by the nose as my wallet was being slowly picked off.
As mentioned, I am not a sophisticated investor but I do read absolutely everything during the week with the hope that so much of this often mysterious information that you all write is lodging itself into my unconscious and will urge me when and what to buy and when and what to sell.
BTW, I truly appreciate it when Kaimu and others speak down on my level and in plain and unsophisticated terms where it actually makes sense to me... and thus like a grade schooler I delightfully shout "I get it!, I get it!".
Bottom line is, again taken altogether, it's working for people such as myself. (knock wood)

WIR: There is a goodly amount of information I just don't grasp and the truth is at this point in my life, it's doubtful that I ever will "get it". The learning curve can be steep, my mind doesn't absorb and retain as well as it used to and the fact is my clock is winding down. I'm not becoming more sophisticated, I'm becoming less. The KISS philosophy works for me.
Feeling this, I quickly scroll through all the charts and various sector news without so much as a glance. It's too much information for me and thus I don't really care about it. (I certainly do appreciate all of Bill's work for those who do study them)

BUT.. there are three parts of the WIR that are of prime importance to me and I read and re-read them for general direction and Bill's overview from the high perch he sits upon.
The first part.. the wrap-up.. and the junior miners, for that is where my money is and will continue to be. If there was to be any expansion of the WIR, at least for me it would be here, in these three categories.

Thanks again and again to Bill and to all of you.

bill b washington, dc

When Semafo broke down late 2010 it warned me of trouble ahead for the miners. Since then, the group has severely under performed the underlying metal.

It recently broke out of its downtrend and is now signalling potentially bullish times ahead for miners. HUI vs gold or HUI vs USD is very, very cheap for me as a foreign investor at this moment. Actually it is at the same level as early 2008 when gold was 1000USD/Oz, yet it is above 1500USD/Oz and just 2% from a new ATH.

Risk/reward is attractive and I am fishing with stink bids once again!

...

Grym,
Looking at the chart you posted WHOSX is on a nice rising up trend while PRPFX is moving sideways. I looked at both these equities on my charts and found:
WHOSX to be crusing along nicely daily and weekly. On a weekly basis it will encounter resistance at the $15 level which is its 50ma and 200 ma. The last 2 years the summer months have shown to be strong for WHOSX. Probably because people move money out of stocks for summer which is usaully a low period for stock values.

PRPFX gave a daily and weekly RSI 14 sell signal May 1st. Currently PRPFX at $48.37 is right above its daily 20 and 50MA at $48.16 The weekly 20ma is at $47.33 and the weekly 50ma is at $44.63. Using round numbers PRPFX hit $49.60 May 1st and sold down to $47.60 on May 17th. Sell in May and go away. While the indicators are rather neutral on PRPFX I would not hold it if it broke below $48. I would look to be a buyer at $45. Since 30% of PRPFX is in stocks I don't see much upside potential over the summer.
Best wishes, Bear E

Is this really happening?
http://bit.ly/lJxclU

Looks like the banks are having a hard time getting their affairs in order.

If Sen. Sanders is successful in manipulating oil trading margins, what's to prevent the trading markets from moving offshore, escaping the regulatory reach of the CFTC? Such a move could damage one of the dollar's main props.

Good for them, the housewives. Might be more effective than guns.

It starts to emerge over the internet. DSK was concerned that 191T gold owned by IMF could not be delivered. He came to US for further investigation and was allegedly accused of offending hotel maid. He was trying to escape from US and was captured.

It is rumored and has not been proved yet.

I am trying to trace the rumor. But some of credible websites start to question.

The whole DSK thing is very odd.

I am simply passing the information. Several of us here have mentioned many times the people must voice our anger and not accept what is currently going on with HB&B and lack of any consumer/investor protection.

Well there seems to be a group attempting to set up a peaceful protest on Flag day, June 14, all across the U.S. They are mobilizing using social media and youtube.

Since I live near wall st, i may (or may not) check this out.

more info here:
Cities: NYC, DC, Chicago, Wisconsin, Michigan, OKC, SF, Seattle.
Main web site: http://uleak.it/?35g
About the protest: http://uleak.it/?1tp

Disclaimer: I have no affiliation or knowledge of who this group is. I do not condone or am not recommending anyone going. I am just passing along the information.

ALOHA!!

toby ... As I was reading your list in my mind I was thinking, "Hey, that's all the sort of stuff our Founding Fathers fought and died for!" In other words you could boil most of that list down to ENFORCE THE US CONSTITUTION and the DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE! I mean look how ass-backwards our Nation has become ...

Sadly that list has nothing about "monetary reform". Do you END THE FED and keep the FRN and the DEBT that comes with it? What good is any other reform without "monetary reform" at the top of the list? Our money is the basis of all our markets and our government and our economy. If our money is corrupt then you will never get rid of corrupt politicians, banks and markets without getting rid of corrupt money first. The temptation is too great ... Why is that so hard to see?

I will admit I do not know this group either and I see no rally happening in Hilo, but NYU Grad you should think about going and reporting back to us if you have the time. I'll send you taxi/subway money and bucks for lunch, but no 12 course "plate lunch" at the Park Plaza!

Wondering if there's a reason why we are seeing a spate of IPOs with Zynga rumored to be up soon according to CNN. Does this indicate that things are getting frothy and the underwriters want to make hay while the sun shines because clouds are next?
http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/03/technology/zynga_i...

Les,

PRPFX is generally about 1/3 each — stocks, Treasuries, gold — and has done well for me over the long haul. I had a considerable amount, but sold it after the RSI warning in early May which Bear E mentioned.

WHOSX is only Treasuries and is often more volatile than TLT, although following the same general pattern.

I'm currently holding LQD and VWESX which pay a good return and are far less volatile than Treasuries. If things get really nasty I'll dump and go back into VFIIX to sleep better.

"It almost looks like rollover time for them." (WHOSX TLT)

Your chart is far more detailed than what I have been looking at (and puzzling over). How did you access that?I understand charting is NOT an exact science, but it has many mysteries for me ;-)

I have been far more comfortable in bonds now that equities have no rules, simply for the slower pace, but this Fed and other gov. tinkering must stop to return a degree of sanity to the world.

Thanks

GRYM

ALOHA!!

PRPFX is Harry Brown's Perfect Portfolio which is suppose to show a profit under any market conditions. It has been around for a long time and is one of the favorites at EWR, Richard Maybury. I do not own it.

Well, after reading the WIR I guess I've been justified in my feelings of doubt and insecurity. Also, I'm happy I recently took some profits and have gone to a stronger cash position.

'“Why is everybody so negative?” The answer is that equity prices continue to sink and the US economic data is fluctuating between bad and ugly."'

And...

"This is a frightening condition [the eurozone instability] , a much larger problem for the stability of the global financial system than even the September 2008 failure of Lehman Brothers."

I know it is said, "Misery loves company", but I'd much rather get back to sharing the good times both nationally and globally.

If my Mom were here she'd simply tell the HB&B crowd, "You need to learn to share."

Grym

Athens local time = 11:14pm Sunday
Live video feed: http://bit.ly/jqyexJ

WSJ: http://on.wsj.com/lejJUO

12 days of consecutive protests. These pesky humans fighting for freedom. these movements tend to snow ball huh? Greece and Grecian debt, is a done matter.

http://www.amazon.com/Fifteen-Biggest-Lies-about-E...

I heard this author, Joshua Holland address an audience many of whom asked what the hell are we supposed to do about our current situation. He thoughtfully replied that we must use the system we have to effect change. Vote in people who will take matters in hand and vote out people who have lied and taken advantage. He urged citizens to become aware of the truth behind the deceptions.

His blog makes a lot of sense.

http://joshholland.blogspot.com/

Perhaps others here have read this:

http://grijalva.house.gov/uploads/The%20CPC%20FY20...

The People's Budget was proposed by progressives to actually make sense, preserve social programs and mathmatically add up. Kaimu? Grym?

freestockcharts.com is a browser run chart based on Microsoft's silverlight plugin.

Although my understanding of these charts are very limited, it is constantly improving through the excellent remarks given to us by Bill and the team. For example, I recall Patrick suggesting that to be sure of a meaningful reversal that one can trade (long, as the case was at the time) one should wait to see three higher lows in a 10 minute chart (an intraday reversal in this case).

I see no reason you cannot take that intraday time frame and use it in a larger, daily time frame. Here is how I would have seen TLT had I been following with the intention to trade it. I've added stochastics, which helps in generating buy/sell signals along with the price/volume action. Actually, it would have made a nice position to park my account instead of getting stuck in choppy 3x ETF's these last couple of weeks.

This is the beauty of Bill's site - a lot of fundamental and technical understanding of the market is being given for free. A site like Ritholz's Big Picture is ideal for talking politics.

edit: John Thomas aka the MHFT has similar comments to make on TLT here:
http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/june-3-2011.html

42.10 or thereabouts is the March low and important support. BHP.AX closed at 42.88 today. Could be this week, or does this cat have one more life to bounce?

ALOHA!!

"Rampant revoltion of our monetary system is unlikely until we stop the hemorraging of money ..."

First off the "revolution" was fought and won in 1776 so there is no "rampant revolution" needed as SOUND MONEY is the law of the land right now if you read the US Constitution. All that needs to be done is to enforce the Constitution and Declaration of Independence. Why would anyone put any of their precious time and efforts into "false reform" that kicks the can another year or two and increases the US DEBT another 8TRIL?

Have you ever even seen the IRS Tax Code law in its entirety? It makes the Bible look like a Hallmark greeting card! As a former IRS employee I can honestly say the simplest way to simplify the tax law is to abolish it and stick with excise taxes, but then take the first step of cutting all federal and state outlays, including defense by 50%.

Where would you like to begin your reform? You know this country has been talking against the rich for 50 years and look where we are. Poor people were talking against the rich ones back in Roman days! There were still rich people when the tax brackets were 80-90% during and right after WW2 and when they were 70% in 1971 and we had rich people. In 1989 the top bracket was only 28%. In the 1990s it was 31-39%. In 2000-2002 it was 38% and now since 2003 it is 35%. The discrimination is rampant in the historical tax brackets from a top bracket range of 28% to 94%. Why should people be punished for living in the 1940s and 1950s more than those who are alive now. Also why should people who made the bulk of their income in the 1980s only pay 28-31% while we now pay 35% and will 4% make any noticeable difference? Then why should an American citizen who only makes $20,000 per year pay less percent than one who makes $100,000 or $300,000? Should we not all pay the same rate? What happened to "equality"? We all fought for "equality" in the civil rights era and "equality" for the handicapped and "equality" for gay people, but somehow this concept of "equality" ends with money, therefore Rights and Freedom are less for those who produce more money.

Then I get discriminated against by Congress for paying off my mortgage because I get no "debt free" credit. I get discriminated against for having sight and for being healthy and fiscally responsible. I get no tax credit for not having any children? As I see it the tax code punishes you the most if you are morally and fiscally responsible. So on Obama's watch every person who had an Estate in 2010 and died that year paid no Estate Tax, but now in 2011 it is back to 55%. How fair is that? I wonder how many rich elders committed suicide in 2010 to avoid the Estate Tax ... In essence the tax code punishes and rewards you for your life and death choices. Why should that be? Why should my life choices be any less important than others? What happened to "All men are created equal"?

Everyone alive, rich and poor, knows the tax code is unfair yet there is this persistent idea that if we only "reform" it again and again and again then all of a sudden life will be fair and perfect for one and all. Isn't that more like the definition of "crazy"? I do not live my life by "reforming" things that do not work ... I get "rid" of it if it does not work! The tax code in the USA does not work. Nether does the "debt system"!

The simple fact is that no amount of tax reform will ever make America solvent or cause the US Congress to live within its means. Unfortunately for our kids Congress has discovered that debt is easier than moral and fiscal prudence. So now our money is debt!

"Dumbed down" ... wow ... not even the "dumbed up" get it!

ALOHA!!

Better yet who bought the NZD?

Loanneter,

Like most political documents this contains something everyone can like. It is also broad enough to allow most of what is wrong with our system to continue as usual.

I agree with Kaimu with the trigger point of a "fair tax" description as crap. We need more fundamental changes.

It is my firm belief that our biggest problem is government itself. It is controlled by a handful of professional politicians in key places with legislation designed by lobbyists for their own special interest groups.

The idea that a budget "puts America back to work" by building infrastructure or "restores competitiveness" is dealing with symptoms. It doesn't deal with the primary issue of trade.

Our competitiveness was destroyed by allowing imports made under virtual slave labor conditions while demanding decades of safety and health requirements to be imposed on our domestic companies.

With a level playing field we can easily outdo any competition. Our biggest competitors are mostly producing what was discovered, designed or invented here and making it cheaper. What are their big innovations of the last couple of centuries and how many do not rely on refining already existing ideas?

Our budget is not needed to "bring our troops home" it is integrity which is needed for that.

Perhaps we must "outsource" our legislature to make the point or resort to foreign methods of regime change to make these points in Congress.

Grym