CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
[7:00am ET] Good morning.
Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.
[10:03am ET] Geoff here.
Wow, what a week we have had. We have experienced a major earthquake that resulted in a tsunami that caused a nuclear accident in Japan. Civil unrest is occurring in the middle east – geopolitical issues are running rampant across the globe. Money is being won and lost - trading hands at high speed.
Markets are gyrating, at any moment we could have a major disaster. So; during times of high volatility how do you grow your portfolio while you are trying to protect what hard-earned money you have accumulated over the years? I will get back to that later in a mid-day report but right now I want to write about something a little more personal.
I showed my kids the video clips of the tsunami and the damage that it did. Recently, I have been talking to my 12-year-old son and 9-year-old daughter about the meaning of being “grateful”. Sure, it hits home to them that they are grateful that they are not in the path of a tsunami, but being “grateful” means more than that.
If a student is grateful for the opportunity to attend a good school, she or he will study harder with the end result of getting good grades.
An employee who is truly grateful for having a job will work harder.
An athlete who is grateful for simply making the team will give 100% effort in practice.
In each example above, being grateful allows one to live in the moment and “give their all”. Each one of those people will excel at their endeavor.
What I am trying to tell my kids is that no matter what life throws at them, they need to be grateful for the things that they have. At any time, everything that you know can be taken away from you.
While I am grateful for many things, I am grateful for the opportunity to show an audience later this morning how to grow and protect your wealth simultaneously. Hopefully you will get something out of my next blog entry that improves your financial life.
Have a great morning.
| Symbol | Name | Last Trade | Change | Related Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^ATX | ATX | 2,723.36 |
 19.65 (0.73%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^BFX | BEL-20 | 2,544.54 |
21.58 (0.86%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FCHI | CAC 40 | 3,735.36 |
38.80 (1.05%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^GDAXI | DAX | 6,526.39 |
12.55 (0.19%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^AEX | AEX General | 345.07 |
1.87 (0.54%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^OSEAX | OSE All Share | 478.08 |
3.26 (0.69%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SMSI | Madrid General | N/A | 0.00 (0.00%) | Chart, More |
| ^OMXSPI | Stockholm General | 341.70 |
3.03 (0.89%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SSMI | Swiss Market | 6,002.70 |
 18.85 (0.31%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FTSE | FTSE 100 | 5,615.02 |
16.79 (0.30%) |
Components, Chart, More |
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL
The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.
Enjoy your day.
Cara on Trends & Cycles
Vad's Catch of the Day
Kaimu's Sound Money
CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Good evening. Patrick here.
Huge overnight ranges in USD/JPY and the S&P stock futures; no doubt a major, major player was on the wrong side of the short yen trade and was forced to liquidate positions sending the yen absolutely soaring (+5%) in a matter of minutes late Wednesday afternoon. This in turn knocked S&P futures down 20 points to fresh low of 1241.25, traders scrambling to figure out what was causing such erratic behavior.
Cooler heads prevailed Thursday morning as the situation with Japanese nuclear reactors had not materially worsened bringing bargain hunters out in force. The S&P surged higher in morning trade getting a boost from a multi-decade high in the Philly Fed reading; an early afternoon mini selling squall knocked the popular averages back a bit, but buyers remained in control with equities finishing solidly higher on the day (S&P+1.34%).
Crude oil (USO+3.58%) spiked higher on saber rattling comments made by the Libyan government and continued unrest in Algeria and Bahrain, breaking headline news once again forcefully moving capital markets.
Several high tech heavy weights didn’t make it to the Bull party today; Juniper Networks (JNPR-2.62%), Amazon (AMZN-2.26%), and Netflix (NFLX-0.04%) finished in the red while Apple (AAPL+1.40%) relinquished over half its daily gains late in the day.
Headline risk should simmer down a bit but it will take time for investors and traders to get a good handle on the long-term economic consequences of the Japanese natural disasters. The market may need to spend some time backing and filling in this area while market participants await further information before making major investment decisions.
Easy to envision a trading range of S&P 1220-1300 for the next week or so – time will tell.
Have a great evening.
Comments
Econoday Today
Re: FXY has gone parabolic
Submitted by Les (4283 comments) on Thu, 03/17/2011 - 02:28 #81787 (in reply to #81768)
(LOL let Yen tell you when Yen is ready to die Earl. Dammit man it could go to the moon from here :) )
Yah Les, I kind of figured that out about 5 minutes after my 14.55 trade and dumped it at 14.5 ASAP - just dumb luck. I think I'll go back to my oil drillers and coal miners LOL:-) I just happened to catch a zerohedge article that was posted 30 seconds after my buy order that said DON'T DO THAT! Talking about an after hour scramble... Note to self - request zero supply an app for that...
Interesting though that it's estimated this will cost some 5 to 10% Japan GDP and some supply disruption here in the US and elsewhere for products which could generate industry growth here in the US - electronics was one area mentioned.
Have a great day Les and everyone else here.
Earl
Re: Marc Faber Calls "Lifetime Buying Opportunity"
Submitted by Grym (3220 comments) on Thu, 03/17/2011 - 07:50 #81792 (in reply to #81767)
Ballena,
Thanks for the link.
Actually he is bullish on Japan unless there is a meltdown. "Then all bets are off," is what follows.
He sees the recent criticism of the Fed as a positive, but thinks markets will fall regardless of Fed intervention. He expects QE3,4,4, and up, since they have committed themselves to this policy. He believes Bernanke is only looking at the S&P and has no regard for anything else.
His longer term view is a genuine "Doom, Gloom and Boom" forecast with the boom being a possible WWIII following a global economic "collapse".
I find this last very disturbing, since I have long expected it as likely "solution" as with the 1930s depression.
http://tiny.cc/ku52c
Grym
Edit: FWIW — Faber is thinking possible 10% DOW down and as much as 20% S&P. If 20% S&P fall, then even those Fed critics will push more QEs.
FT: The derivatives hour for the Japanese yen
http://on.ft.com/eFHRPK
Don't forget India
key to Bill's market outlook and starting to roll over. A short entry setup could net a respectable risk/reward from here.
WSJ/The Anemic Recovery Continues
Mort Zuckerman of US News & World Report encompasses my thoughts except for one thing —
He leaves out the duplicity of the Fed, Treasury and many assorted political figures who continue to juggle data.
The Anemic Recovery Continues
WSJ/Who can blame consumers for holding back when 50 million Americans depend on taxpayer-supported programs? The modern-day soup line is a check in the mail.
http://tiny.cc/289tw
[On the following I believe he is too optimistic, or perhaps it is just wishful thinking. (He does qualify it.) With the largest corporations' profits from producing and selling primarily overseas there will still be far too little earned by US workers and too little capex here.]
"One possible engine of recovery may be the improving profitability of corporate America, if the cash finds its way into increased capital spending and employment. But with companies uncertain about the future, that's not happening."
O'Cara 100 Ratings Changes For POMO Thursday
Top o' the marn, lads un lassies.
5.5 - 7.5 Billion Dollar POMO Injection Today.
------
8:30 - Initial/Continuing Claims
8:30 - CPI
9:15 - Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
10:00 - Leading Indicators
10:00 - Philly FED
------
O'Cara 100 NKE reports earnings after the close.
------
There are NO O'Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.
------
May your glass be ever full.
May the roof over your head be always strong.
And may you be in heaven
half an hour before the devil knows you're dead.
- Irish Drinking Toast
------
May the saints be with ye.
I'm A Believer
http://tinyurl.com/4rupcrf
Ben shaved off the beard to energize/evangelize the crowd in these trying times-> SPX 1500. I'm a believer, at least until Friday.
The laws of unintended consequences or stupid legislation
Vad has spoken of it many times:
"The foreigners’ tax that Brazil tripled last year to keep out cash may now be discouraging Japanese investors from pulling their money from the country after last week’s earthquake, currency trading shows.
Investors are hesitant to pull money from Brazil because they want to avoid paying the 6 percent tax should they decide to move money back in, according to Bank of America Corp. The bank said in a March 15 report the tax is preserving the real’s value this week, the opposite of what Finance Minister Guido Mantega intended when he raised it in October. The real has gained this week against four of the five most-traded emerging- market currencies, falling only against the Taiwanese dollar."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-17/japanese-...
Instead of weakening their currency, they've actually made it stronger against major competitor nations....
Re: The laws of unintended consequences or stupid legislation
Les,
re. tax in Brazil. That is very inaccurate and probably put out by vested interests who *want* to be able to freely put more money into Brazil, but can't due to the tax. Who wrote that piece? BAC? Next thing you know it will be reported by ZH (or the National Enquirer).
Listen Up Nat Gas Exporters
Tepco: Planning To Install Multiple 300,000kw Gas Turbines - Nikkei
Playbook/ St. Patrick's Day Massacre
A better set-up than St. Valentine's Day.
Crash Monday. Delayed reaction in global markets to disaster in Japan.
Clash Tuesday. Bears and bulls clash to no avail at the line of scrimmage.
Brash Wednesday. Bears sack the bulls to make it 3rd and 25. Bulls decide to go long.
Cash Thursday. Hail Mary.
Smash Friday? We don't yet know.
Re: Listen Up Nat Gas Exporters
GE no doubt... I didn't believe the US was set up to export lots of NG/LNG...
Earl
Re: The laws of unintended consequences or stupid legislation
I'll have to question you on that one Si02. What part is inaccurate?
http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/BRL-AUD-history-7-...
http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/BRL-CAD-history-7-...
A couple of currency pairs do show strength in the Real.
http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/BRL-USD-history-7-...
http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/BRL-EUR-history-7-...
The Real has weakened against the USD and Euro but I'm guessing that risk money is being pulled by traders in these zones.
http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/BRL-JPY-history-7-...
The Real is of course weaker than the Japanese Yen. What weakness can be attributed to repatriation and simply the strength of Yen?
Actually I found the article quite interesting, after you forced me to look at it a second time:
"About 1.6 million Japanese nationals or people of Japanese descent live in Brazil, the biggest community outside of the Asian country, according to the country’s embassy in Brasilia. Japanese started to immigrate to the South American nation in the early 20th century as laborers working in coffee plantations."
Still, a number of analysts/fund traders remarked on something similar, so if its one big conspiracy by the investing world... *shrug*.
edit: actually there was a contradictory remark made by one trader that suggested the tax does not apply to Japanese investments:
"The IOF tax will fail to deter Japanese from repatriating Brazilian holdings because their investments are in markets not subject to the levy, according to Kieran Curtis, who helps manage about $2 billion in emerging-market debt at Aviva Investors in London. Japanese investors buy the real in the non- deliverable forwards market and purchase real-linked bonds that trade overseas, he said."
So yes maybe it was a red herring headline.
Re: Listen Up Nat Gas Exporters
Most probably. Copper should be in demand too – generator windings, electrical cable, etc.
Edit: Yeah, ability to export LNG is quite limited from what I can gather.
Apr 2010 vs now [updated chart]
http://cdnmo.coveritlive.com/media/image/201103/ph...
Re: Listen Up Nat Gas Exporters
I believe Cheniere Energy (LNG) has assets for gas exportation. DYODD of course.
Re: Listen Up Nat Gas Exporters
Thanks Les.
Re: Listen Up Nat Gas Exporters
no I speak falsely, sorry:
At the moment, there is only one liquefied natural gas terminal for exporting gas in the US, and it's located in Alaska. But for the first time in 40 years, another nat gas liquefaction plant is being built. With support from Chesapeake Energy [CHK 35.11 0.46 (+1.33%) ], Cheniere Energy Partners [LNG 8.58 0.12 (+1.42%) ] is working with Bechtel to build the plant at its Sabine Pass LNG terminal in Louisiana. As things stand, the plant could start exporting LNG by 2015.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37997122?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo
appears to have import capability only at present. Still, interesting risk/reward in longer time frame, given its price prior to 2008 and the huge base of support it created afterwards.
O'Cara 100 Update (Final)
AAPL - initiated at Credit Suisse with an Outperform rating and $500 price target. Apple should be able to deliver outsized revenue/earnings growth of 50%/46% over the next two years, Credit Suisse said.
Re: Apr 2010 vs now [updated chart]
http://cdnmo.coveritlive.com/media/image/201103/ph...
The mkt is at the blue line today. In Apr 2010 the following 2-3 days, the 50 day sma was tested. Are we headed there again in this scenario before heading lower? I am looking at the next 2 days at least as a dead cat bounce.
See Addendum to the Morning Report
In the commentary at the top of the page.
Denison Mines Corp. (DNN).
Could not resist at 2.35 - we may retro some of the old nuclear reactors with natural circulation (no pumps required) and the new generation 4 generators have natural circulation built in. I'll take a stand here and say we will not give up our nuclear plans at all - gen4 should fission more of the fuel and reduce some of the spent fuel collection - goal being one day to fully fission all the material... I know there are many companies working on other technologies to produce fuels for the future but you can be sure that profits will be maximized in this process. I don't expect the % of my pay check devoted to 'energy' to go down.
regards,
Earl
kids
geoff the lesson for your kids was simple yet powerful and one we can all use.
that's the long and short of it. lol / thankyou
Gratitude / Geoff
Geoff nailed it in the CTA Trading Desk Morning Report.
I keep little reminders to myself in my car and on my desk to be grateful, AND to express gratitude.
Thanks for the reminder, Geoff.
Re: The laws of unintended consequences or stupid legislation
Les, that is not the point. I follow the real for many years (and its previous incarnations, decades actually) and you could say I am heavily invested. Nobody is questioning the real appreciation. FYI, Brazil will be either raising the IOF or imposing a new quarentine on inflows. There will be strong opposition to this by HB&B, of which BAC is or was a member unless it its allowed to go bankrupt. The real appreciation is there for a very good reason and without the IOF and other measures it would have been through the roof.
The stuff that people just quote here is questionable at times (some even quote ZH as something reliable). People might believe this stuff.
Re: Denison Mines Corp. (DNN).
Paladin had a conference call today and there were some interesting snippets in the call concerning not only PDN but uranium demand and markets as a whole. From parts of an RBC commentary:
"• Paladin’s exposure to Japan: Paladin does not have any contract exposure
to Japan. The company's primary customers are in the U.S.
• Nuclear industry outlook: Paladin has a positive mid- to long-term outlook
for the nuclear industry. The company expects that the new reactors planned
and under construction will proceed. Despite hesitation from Western
countries, Paladin believes that nuclear power is required to meet the growing
global electricity demand. As such, Paladin does not anticipate mid- to
long-term uranium demand to drop as a result of the Japanese nuclear crisis.
• Uranium supply situation: Paladin’s CEO stated there is a fundamental
shortage of uranium supply. As the financial markets retreat from the
uranium sector, it could potentially leave explorers and developers struggling
to raise funding.
• Uranium price levels: Paladin believes that based on the supply and demand
fundamentals in the uranium market, the current depressed uranium spot
price (approximately $50/lb) will be short lived, and should return to the
$70/lb level, and beyond. In the spot market, physical inventory held by
speculators and the financial industry are being unloaded into the market, and
utilities, with a physical need for uranium, are purchasing the uranium.
Paladin expects the uranium price to strengthen as contracts are signed later
in 2H/11. The company stated it has been seeing strength in the term market.
• Paladin’s uranium contracts: The company’s goal is to sell 85% of its
production through contracts at term pricing. Of this quantity, 25% to 35% is
expected to be base escalated. Currently, 40% of production is delivered in
the market under both term and spot pricing. The company currently has
heavy contract commitments with the U.S., and one of the non-Japanese
Asian utilities. Paladin is looking to diversify its sales to include Europe,
Middle East and India. Paladin is also involved in ongoing discussions with
China Guangdong, and expects to provide an update on the progress in the
next month."
FD: Do not own PDN or DNN but do own some other U cos.
Priced
Libya – U.N. Draft
FLASH: UK says U.N. Libya draft calls for all necessary measures short of an occupation force to protect civilians
Re: Denison Mines Corp. (DNN).
Thanks for the post Ball.
regards,
Earl
Nat Gas spike this AM
My UNG trade working great.
I'm also positioned for a ST rebound in some long positions mentioned yesterday.
Edit: I plan to sell my UNG calls on any sign of weakness as we ventured outside BB today.
Re: Apr 2010 vs now [updated chart]
I totally agree, but I would change title to May 2010 vs now. Yesterday did feel like a flash crash. It certainly was in Asian stocks.
Traderwizard.com courses: A Taoist Trader
Having collected questions over a few days, I'll post summary of answers for each course offered at this point. Those who sent questions, check your messages for answers to your particular one, and these posts for the summary. Let's start with A Taoist Trader (http://traderwizard.com/node/296).
What it is about.
This course deals with the markets and trading from three major standpoints.
1. How market works. What forces move the market and how they interact between themselves; how to read their footprints. Market cycles and how to read them. Information flow - who and how organizes it and for what purposes, how to utilize it instead of being naive victim of entities with agendas. Major laws governing the market movements - how they manifest themselves and how to foresee their influences. How to act in accordance with these laws to stay safe and profitable.
2. How other market participants work. What factors impact crowd's reactions; how majority reacts; how to read those reactions; how to foresee them; how to utilize them. How Smart Money provoke certain reactions; how to read their actions and utilize them.
3. How you work. What reactions Smart Money tries to provoke in you. How to prevent it from succeeding. How to separate your actions from emotions. How to stop being a part of the crowd manipulated by the information flow and its originators. How to align yourself with laws governing the markets.
Who is it for?
Anyone who is involved with market. If you ever caught yourself puzzled by market's unforeseen reaction on what seemed to be a "sure thing," this course is for you. If you ever felt overly emotional about any development; had your judgement clouded by these emotions; acted against your better judgement and best interest; allowed a loss to get of hand; forfeited a chance to cash out on substantial profits letting them evaporate; felt fooled by market actions - this course is for you.
Is it time frame dependent?
Not at all. Whether you day trade, hold for weeks, months or years - this course is for you.
Is it trading vehicle dependent?
Not at all. Whether you trade stocks, futures, currencies or commodities, the major laws and psychology of the participants is the same.
Does it require preliminary knowledge of Taoism to understand the material?
No. Each chapter starts with brief explanation of the corresponding Taoist text. These explanations do not intend to make you a Taoist practitioner. They rather create a bridge allowing to see how the markets obey general laws of nature; they create a structure that streamlines your learning of trading craft.
You are famous for numerous mistypes and general butchering of English. Is it the case with this course?
No. It's professionally edited.
(OK, this one is a joke, no one actually asked that - strange as it may be).
Hope that answers most questions; ask more if needed please. I will post separate summary on Scalping Video Course.
Went to the Sidelines
Went to 99% cash this morning including long term investments for the following:
Mideast turmoil
Japan crisis
US debt issues - in 3 weeks when we hit the debt ceiling, I think the real circus in Congress will begin
Recent inflation numbers - Will QE be curtailed for the time being
I think the probabilities of the market taking off to the upside are a whole bunch less than a somewhat large correction.
I really enjoy your comments Patrick and Geoff. I'm sure Bill is proud of you.
Thank you,
"The possibility of re-criticality is not zero"
Tepco warned on Wednesday.
Meaning a possibility of a huge release of radioactivity; IMHO, comparable to Chernobyl.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-1277...
Watching closely the markets and ready to sell my EWY calls when a reversal happens.
INTC
Is the market over reacting?
Copper: strong like bull
After having been hammered six days in a row and managing to close above the support level every time, copper takes a leap as the markets see a relief rally.
FCX needs to break the sloping negative trend channel which it is testing right now to give positive vibrations.
No position, just following it closely.
OH, and the USD is below 76. Let's RIP it?!
Re: "The possibility of re-criticality is not zero"
When I first read that hopes are being pinned on running a new electric supply wire to run the plants' pumps I thought it was optimistic to believe that the plants' pumps were in working condition. But to also expect that the plants' internal wiring is also in working order after all that has happened - - wow. I hope they are correct.
Re: The laws of unintended consequences or stupid legislation
Ok, so the article could be conceived as a back door argument for dropping the tax. Thank you for illuminating that. I didn't see what was being written between the lines.
And yes, it's pretty ballsy of BAC to lean on the Brazilian Finance Minister given the state of the $/BRL currency pair.
Natural Gas Seasonal Chart
http://www.ccstrade.com/mkt/NG/seasonal/
Go to Page 11.
Re: Went to the Sidelines
Rosevillebill... I'm with you.
The whole "Japanese Nuclear reactor" issue is far from resolution!
Earlier post here on WSJ Zuckerman article, "the new breadline is a check in the mail"... good reading!
I know the "wall of worry", and "buying into weakness" but this is looking like a "pretty tall wall" and "I'm a little weak" right now!
Add to your list of problems:
1. Oil at 100+ ($4+ gal/gas?)
2. Local/city/county muni bonds downgrades soon
3. State budget problems/layoffs when the stimulus runs out (in june?)
4. No QE 3... for a while anyway
Thanks Vad, Patrick, Geoff, you guys keep us little guys sane :)
Re: Traderwizard.com courses: A Taoist Trader
Hi Vad,
I’ve already a logon so provided the creak doesn’t rise I’ll start this weekend.
Regards,
Earl
IAEA: Japan officials say
IAEA: Japan officials say Tepco engineers have successfully laid new external power cable to No. 2 reactor at Fukushima plant - press
- Tepco plans to reconnect power at No. 2 unit after they finish efforts to spray water on No. 3 reactor unit.
- NOTE: earlier Japanese press reports said Tepco hope to have some power restored to the plant by Friday.
Re: Traderwizard.com courses: A Taoist Trader
Earl,
great to hear, please share your impressions as you progress. Any troubles registering and accessing the content? Mechanism is tested but you know, new things have habit of surprising :)
BCOND - Baz?
I think it got a downgrade and was at 1.97 this morning - didn't buy any but looking - hard to do research here... Just curious if it's on your radar. I bought back into SDS and EDZ @ 11 our time.
regards,
Earl
Re: Traderwizard.com courses: A Taoist Trader
My girls have their store up and running so I told them they have to give me a little time.
Take care,
Earl
CSCO
Just entered the accumulation zone on the Cara RSI set up. Only one out of many, many. Tech and Semis showing some sector strength with big boys rolling back into Apple and Mr. Softy.
Cisco is in smackdown mode on its back with tag team Gates and Jobs offering a hand up from the mat.
FD: Bought some CSCO at $17.02 today.
libya (remember them?)
Draft UN resolution mostly agreed to, except the niggling details regarding just how far we're going to stick our arm into this third arab beehive. Security Council vote scheduled for 5pm Eastern today. The current language would seem to authorize sending planes, ships, advisors, special forces, and even an armored division or two, as long as they weren't classified as "an occupation force."
Details courtesy of the Libya Live Blog of Al Jazeera.
http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/africa/libya-live-...
"Diplomats have told Al Jazeera that there has been agreement over most of the draft resolution, but there is still concern over one paragraph, reproduced below, which deals with taking "all necessary measures" to protect Libyan civilians, short of an "occupation force".
"Authorises member states that have notified the Secretary-General and the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, acting nationally or through regional organisations or arrangements, and acting in cooperation with the S-G, to take all necessary measures, notwithstanding paragraph 9 of Resolution 1970, to protect cilivians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamarhiya, including Benghazi, while excluding an occupation force and requests the member states concerned to inform the S-G immediately of the measures they take pursuant to the authorisation conferred by this paragraph which shall immediately reported to the security council."
Canadian Forestry firms
Maybe not a sexy sector, but Canadian forest companies have gone up substantially the past few days, as many are well positioned to benefit from Japanese reconstruction. I picked up Western Forest Products (WEF.TO) for 0.90 on Monday - it hit 1.23 today and currently sitting at 1.13. International Forest Products (IFP/A.TO) is up over 12% today. Attached article from Globe & Mail lists 5 companies with exposure to Japanese markets.
http://tinyurl.com/4mzq6ma
Re: Canadian Forestry firms
Forestry oriented stocks has actually been one of my best gainers the last year. Entered in Feb/Mar a year ago but mainly pulp producers, eg MERC, TMB.to and CFX.to. Still holding Tembec, even though I have traded it a few times since.
Lumber industry is coming back, but still nothing like the pulp sector where producers have acted like cash cows since the earthquake in Chile in February last year. That was also my buy trigger. Prices are still "high" due to low capacity. Speciality pulp is experiencing golden times as cotton prices have gone up 200% in less than a year. Speciality pulp can be used for rayon to make clothes. Ask the Asians about it. The margins are huge and that will probably persist for quite a while. Tembec will earn additionally 60MUSD EBITDA this year just on the price increases for speciality pulp. Market cap is 530MCAD.
Paper has had a very tough decade, but so much production capacity has disappeared that prices are high enough for several producers to finally show small profits.
Sorry, but I tend to mix lumber, pulp and paper together a bit and call it all forestry even though it is wrong.
EDIT: I wrote a little about it here a year ago but did not even get a reply at that time. Nice to see somebody interested. I still have my eyes on all three segments (lumber,pulp,paper).
Re: CSCO
Hi Dr. S - Noted this as well. Do you or anyone know the reasons behind TEF's situation, which is also part of the Cara 100 and in accumulation, but with a nice pop today? Happy Trading
Pulling back for the weekend
I see a number of traders here have pulled back. I've done likewise after hitting my daytrade limit today. Used an FCX call initiated this morn to cover a slight SLW loss and sold both and am locked out until Monday. There's a tussle going on between buyers and sellers and I don't want to be in the midst of it.
Some stocks like SLW look like they may be basing out, but then I look at SPY's weekly chart and figure if we've already hit bottom then this is one very quick correction. Watching into the weekend is a prudent course for me here.
Taking off BRKB OAKBX AND CWGIX AT CLOSE TODAY
caution still warranted IMO
Tried for a bounce on CCJ today but got buzzed fast.
Re: Taking off BRKB OAKBX AND CWGIX AT CLOSE TODAY
Pz- I'm going to hold my positions for now.
Real Time US radiation map
Has it come to this?
http://radiationnetwork.com/
I live in central California and we are expecting rain this weekend from the Pacific.
Re: Taking off BRKB OAKBX AND CWGIX AT CLOSE TODAY
Easy 1%+ gain in portfolio, gonna take the gift horse in this uncertain environment. :)99%+ cash now
Re: Don't forget India
But India is the only country among BRIC to trade at high P/E multiples. Still seems to be risky.
See the Post-Close Report
In the commentary at the top of the page.
Morning Report
Geoff,
I just got around to reading your morning report and it struck a cord.
Certainly all the examples you listed are true — and many more. There are times when something, like the Japanese plight, snaps us back and gives us a sense of proportion. While it is good you are pointing this out to your kids, your comments reminded me once again how petty so many things are which I obsess over.
Two weeks ago a long time friend (age 72) was in an auto accident. She's getting along OK now and will probably be 99% as she was before it happened. But she told us just how a split second before she had been concerned over some minor thing when — WHAM — she was struck by another car which turned into her across the median, never saw it coming and she was suddenly in intense pain, semi conscious and unable to move. She related this by phone and was simply grateful to be able to sit up in a chair.
Thanks,
Grym
Re: Taking off BRKB OAKBX AND CWGIX/ One Step Up
http://tinyurl.com/4tvchmp
Pz- Nothing wrong with an easy +1%. You undoubtedly made the right move- we're likely not finished with the downside. If the dance pattern is one step up/two steps back, I'm not convinced we've completed the step up. We'll see.
Re: BCOND - Baz?
sticking to Bio's only... waiting for Gold floor...
Goldman trader that Bill Fleckenstein stays in touch
with, noted today that most of the selling in gold stocks was fast money and leveraged types... Physical buying has been picking up, especially from the ' Official Sector ' ( meaning Central Banks )...
Ag update from the farm
First of all, sorry for the seemingly discoherent diatribe from yesterday. If you read past the first 4 sentences, you would have understood my poor attempt at humor. I guess I enjoy dangling my partidecispials in publik even without the benefit of moonshine!
Anyhoose, ag commodities have taken a near term beating the last couple of trading sessions. I think one must couple this with a really increasing co-relation of all markets. It makes no sense but occasionally it happens at inflection points. After all, panic is a disease that infects the sober preacher as well as the the drunker-ed.
Interestingly, I haven't seen much cotton plantings. I live in the historic cotton belt in north east Texas where cotton was King. Of course there is a lot of winter wheat. There is no picture so beautiful as coal black angus grazing the tops off an emerald green winter wheat field. It is a study in simbiosis.
We need some rain to finish off the crop but it is spring and it should come. Cattle farmers are selling light weights too soon to take advantage of current prices. Expect to see 'underweight' cuts in a Kroger near you at jacked up prices. It's simply the Hershey bar syndrome of less product at the same price. More bone, less meat.
I wish I had a revelation to pass on but I don't. My gut says that Gubbments(sp) with intention, will no doubt attempt to stockpile foodstuffs in order to prevent riots. In the end, power ain't about book learnen from some demicrat rabble rousers. Power is the price and availability of FOOD on the table here and now.
Given the current cotton price, we need to think seriously about investing in a polyester farm. The pelts from those little polyester critters are only a quarter of the price of midling cotton!
Let me point out that high prices for ag or any other commodity is a function of higher prices. When the price of gasoline is $10 a gallon, the price of oil will plummet to $50 bucks a barrel which would be still $40 a barrel higher than in 1972.
THINGS DON'T COST MORE! YOUR MONEY BUYS LESS.
ASX GOLD
ALOHA!!
I think the G7 saved the day ...
It was a big up day for gold ASX stocks. Unless Japan or the G7 blows up tomorrow I think this will carry through to the TSX gold stocks as well.
Post-close Report
Thanks Patrick. As posted yesterday, the parabolic reversal is now quite visible in Yen. Unfortunately, outside of US market hours. haha see what it is to be small and nimble. When the elephants of the investment world find themselves on the wrong side of a short trade....
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2011-...
Twiggs' suggests correction coming in PM's but I am standing firmly in the path of small explorers if this correction comes about.
What G7 activity Kaimu? I assume you mean messing around with the Yen...
Nike says trainers will get more expensive
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/re...
Can't be good for retailers. Speaking of which, I try to catch one old hand's live stocktwits market update at 4pm Wednesday and Friday. The Wednesday one was interesting in forcing me to look again at the market from a larger perspective.
http://www.alphatrends.net/2011/03/16/stock-market...
(As a side note, Si02 forced me to reappraise what is worth mentioning here when I posted a HB&B pump published by Bloomberg yesterday. It shows that when I stray out of trusted networks like Shannon and Cara then yes the information space is a minefield and the truthfulness and utility of such information can blow up in my face).
Instead of aggressively pursuing every bounce possible in the hourly time frame, which has been the way I've played it until recently (while the market was going up), I was shown the old hand's perspective which can be partially encapsulated in the attached retailers ETF chart.
As he received numerous emails foretelling the top a million times prior to it occurring, now he receives emails already from wags who reckon the bottom is already in. The simple message of price volume action illustrated with some moving averages suggested to me that I stop chasing every bounce SLW or FCX seemed capable of and concentrate on my uni work, which requires me to prioritise it over all else now.
As a number of commentators like Marc Faber and Kaimu have pointed out, unless Benny loses his job, QE3 will occur at some point down the road. The market will begin to tell us when that is going to be a reality. And you can see from the chart attached at what point jumping back on could be ideal from a larger perspective.
If it doesn't happen and the market slide continues then I'll be maybe 50% filled with junior miners at strong support levels. I put my faith in gold. The panic sellers can keep Uncle Buck.
Presently +12%YTD and happy to keep it that way in this volatility.