Bill Cara's Blog for Mar 25, 2011 [See Post-Close report]

dnfrm,

"Actually, my kids, I'm certain, are convinced that I indeed was a participant in those generational upheavals... "

LOL! A few years ago my wife and I took part in a program in which retirees discussed various questions with 5th graders by email. One of the questions asked by the kids was, "What were your favorite TV programs when you were our age?"

They seemed stunned to learn we not only had no TV, but had no phone or car (war time gas rationing) and we read a lot and listened to radio stories. "Without pictures!?!"

As with the kids, many adults seem to think the US Revolution delivered the Republic (if they have ever heard the term) and a democratic system intact when the British went home. Few realize the eight years it took to begin. Fewer seem to know it is a never completed project.

Grym

SPECULATION is swirling BHP Billiton may be getting ready to make an offer for Woodside Petroleum, however some believe its got more to do with Japan's nuclear disaster.

Shares in the Perth-based company jumped 5.82 per cent to an intraday high of $48.11 before easing to $46.78 at 1229 AWST, a $1.22 increase on yesterday’s closing price.

More than 13 million shares have been traded, much higher than the average trading volume of around 5 million shares in the past five trading days.

Woodside has not released any news today.

Cameron Securities client adviser Adrian Leppinus said Woodside has been the standout company on the local market today, with rumours swirling of a takeover bid in the works.

``The big news is Woodside. Shares are up …. on rumours that BHP is looking at them or looking at buying Shell's stake.''

Late last year, Shell sold a third of its Woodside shareholding and had flagged it was looking to further reduce its interest.

The sale sparked speculation that BHP, which is cashed up, could move in on Woodside either by buying Shell’s remaining stake or even launch a takeover.

Shell currently holds about 24 per cent of Woodside.

However, some disagree with the speculation, with Bell Potter Securities senior adviser Michael Thomson saying it could have more to do with the ongoing nuclear drama in Japan.

“The Japanese has lost a significant amount of the nuclear power capabilities and they have to replace it,” he said

“Now LNG would seem to be by far the quickest, cleanest and easiest way of bringing new power back into production.

“It takes a very long time and courage to build a nuclear power plant in Japan whereas LNG, they can do very quickly and very easily.”

Since the Japanese earthquake and tsunami a fortnight ago, Woodside shares have climbed more than 11 per cent.

RBS Morgan resource analyst James Wilson said it was unlikely BHP would make a move on Woodside, given the mining giant is in the middle of a big share buy-back.

He added that BHP has previously said it was looking for value-accretive propositions, which Woodside is currently not given its high share price.

SOURCE:
http://bit.ly/fpfgIc

Bigwad1,

Not surprising. "The American Jobs Creation Act of 2004" was nothing more than a corporate tax break disguised as something to create jobs in America.

The duplicity of the US Congress, presidents and others is what is destroying the nation and creating a 2-class society.

In a more perfect world we'd have tarred and feathered the whole bunch long before now.

The ideal scenario for bulls? Friday pullback to inject a little weekend anxiety into the markets. Then short squeeze +/- window-dressing to new highs by end of Q1.

...

http://on.ft.com/if7wrW

“It’s hard to say which is more obstructive and less European, the True Finns or the Free Democrats,” said one senior EU official, referring to the surging Eurosceptic party threatening to win next month’s Finnish elections.

In the commentary at the top of the page.

AET - Upgraded at Leerink from Market Perform to Outperform, Leerink Swann said. Valuation call, as consensus estimates appear conservative.

RIMM - Research in Motion downgraded to Above Average from Buy at Caris following the company's Q4 results and lowered its target for shares to $70 from $75.

In the commentary at the top of the page.

You are right, lots of strength in the face of bad news:

"Consumer sentiment in March fell to its lowest level in more than a year as gasoline and food prices rose, a survey released on Friday showed."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/25/us-usa-e...

EWJ fell sharply on the other hand. Very confusing picture.

Very tempting to close the few puts I have. But I will let the markets work through my stops instead.

The strength of INP is mind-boggling. I'm glad I'm long.

Adding on strength.

I will at least wait for a dip to get more long positions.

I keep seeing reports that US manufacturing is "slowly recovering", but can't find any info on just how this is tallied.
For example: A local manufacturer has complained he can't find workers. He say that several applicants have said, "Why should I work for what you offer when I am getting almost as much on unemployment?"

I know back in the early 1990s a machinist could make $40/hr around here — so he may be offering far less, 99 weeks of pay without working may be a factor, or the fact that all the qualified guys were forced into early retirement has left us with to few able to do the job.

Is the manufacturing which is reported actually done in the US? Do the data include products made over seas and only assembled here. Are a US corporation's foreign operations simply tossed into their totals even though the products never enter the US borders?

On strength. Large-cap value coming into play, IMO.

This is not at all bullish for Intel and not entirely unexpected either.

Acer, the Taiwanese PC maker, on Friday warned sales in the first quarter would fall short of expectations, highlighting the continued weakness in demand in Europe and the US and the growing popularity of new mobile devices like tablets.

With just a week to go before the end of the quarter, the company said its PC revenues were 10 per cent less than in the fourth quarter, during which Acer had already suffered an 11 per cent year-on-year fall in revenues.

“We have been hearing about weakness in the US and European markets for some time but this is a confirmation of just how weak it is,” Jenny Lai, head of Taiwan research at HSBC, said. “It also shows that tablets’ cannibalisation of the notebook and netbook markets is definitely happening,” she added.

I agree. While I'm not impressed by the new iGizmos, my kids are crazy about it. I understand that penetration of smart phones in EM is low.

When one compares INTC vs AAPL charts, it's obvious who is the leader and who lags behind (5 year chart is great to see).

Not convinced that this is anything more than a temporary bounce no matter how much I dislike the euro. Waiting to be proved wrong.

The previous Fed Chairman could do no wrong, he was called Maestro and when he came before Congress nobody questioned his enigmatic statements. He was treated like a messenger from the Gods.

As a result, the Fed is institutionally unprepared to respond to criticism from the mainstream, and they are slowly implementing things that will make them appear more transparent, consumer-friendly, and so on. Framing casino-banker-friendly money printing operations as being focused on "job creation" is one example of this. (Printing money creates jobs how, again? Any historical cases where it has done so successfully - outside of casino-banker jobs, that is?)

Clearly criticism of the Fed is gaining more traction as time goes on and as the recovery remains jobless.

Now, the current Chairman expects to get roasted whenever he appears before Ron Paul, who is the folk hero for the new force in Congress and a likely candidate for President in 2012. The Fed has finally realized that if the current trend doesn't change, they may well find themselves out of jobs. At the very least, their freedom of operation is likely to be curtailed through legislation. Imagine if they could only focus on price stability. Casino bankers would be most wroth. Someone might find themselves thrown under a bus.

BCON & ACPW for a trade - Les, do you still have AXPW - could be a good long term stock. going to look close at ENS and XIDE for a possable long term position.
regards,
Earl

The euro was sold hard around mid day (starting around 11:45 ET), now off about a penny (0.72%). This dragged silver off its perch, and gold as well. SPX was only modestly affected. Not sure exactly why this happened to the euro, perhaps someone here knows something? Maybe Plosser suggesting QE3 wasn't likely to happen immediately caused a dollar rally?

FD: long dollar, short euro

Dave:

http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-blog-m...

Jack,

A good way to get a true comparison. Just as lower sales taxes show a retail picture. Thanks.

So, obviously we are NOT increasing manufacturing as reported — unless of course, we are suddenly becoming far more efficient and less wasteful ;-)

For some time now I have been expecting a gradual return of manufacturing to the US. Not what we once knew, but with lower wages and benefits. As fuel cost rise, foreign employees begin to expect more compensation and US consumers tire of being trapped into a life as a captive to Wal-Mart shopping for price alone.

I guess we are not showing a result of such as yet.

Take a look at the ISM data:

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the 19th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 21st consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm

As far as sales taxes, I thought, but didn't verify, that state revenues were going up and a lot of these will be driven by sales taxes, so I'm surprised when you say sales taxes are down.

bbarberayr,

What I am questioning is stuff like the ISM. Much of our "official" data is so distorted that I'm wondering just how the data is collected and what is included.

Specifically, is income from foreign operations of US corporations counted in the "increasing US manufacturing"?

The sound bite stuff tells me zip.

For example yesterday it was suggested that fewer applications for unemployment comp meant things are getting better. Not if fewer are eligible. Also when fewer are laid off may only mean (as where my son works) if anymore are let go they can no longer operate the business.

There are so many ways to spin data that much is worst than useless and may lead to poor investing decisions.

http://tinyurl.com/5t7xqbe
"Opposition lawmakers toppled Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government, triggering an election that may result in an alliance to reverse his corporate tax cuts and overturn plans for more military spending."
...
"Harper tomorrow will meet with the Governor General David Johnston, Queen Elizabeth II’s representative in Canada, to request the dissolution of Parliament and set a date for the vote. Under Canadian law, an election would take place on a Monday following a campaign of at least five weeks, meaning a vote could be held as early as May 2."

He reports on some sentiment and analyst survey numbers. It appears to contradict some who feel that nobody believes in this post-tsunami rally.

"The latest Investors Intelligence poll pegged bullish sentiment at 50.6% and bearish sentiment at 22.4%. Normally, this gap is a source of resistance, but these are hardly normal times. Even for the bears, who see GDP revisions now to the downside and equity analysts no longer lifting their EPS estimates, the extent of this post-correction rally can only be boiled down to liquidity and technicals; fundamentals be damned.

A Reuters poll confirms the rampant bullish atmosphere. The quarterly poll of almost 400 market analysts and economists showed a consensus view of 1,340 for the S&P 500 by mid-2011 and 1,400 for year-end (up from 1,325 in the December survey)."

I'm not sure that 1340 qualifies as "rampant bullishness" but its certainly not bearish.

A February 28th earnings release from A123 Systems (AONE) that reported 69.2 million watt-hours of battery shipments, $73.8 million of battery sales, and $94.3 million of production costs for the year ended December 31, 2010; which pencils out to an average customer price of $1,067 per kWh and an average production cost of $1,363 per kWh.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/256701-alice-in-ev...

Yeh the basis of this author's argument - and he is not a certified representative but a lawyer whose been in the energy game 30 years - is that all that rare metal needed for massed produced specialised batteries and electric motors will never be able to economically replace oil.

His thesis is simple. Juiced up lead acid battery technology powering more stop-start motor systems to reduce the maximum amount of consumption with the least amount of technological change, minimum cost and practically mass-producible. AXPW has a deal in place with BMW, amongst other leading technology business.

His reference to the "valley of death" is interesting, along with the thesis that sexed up market favourites like AONE and Tesla have yet to cross that great divide between haves and have nots.

An interesting space that has got my attention apart from precious metals.

-------------------------------------------

A space that might interest traders next week is the Ag space. POT, MOS, AGU, even explorers like AAA.V looking bullish. I'm of two minds and not taking a position at this time. Waiting to see what the $ wants to do.

I too liked the valley of death metaphor and the author's thesis. I'm a big believer in "just barely good enough" working out well. It worked for Microsoft for 20 years.

As for the dollar - we had a reversal doji, a confirmation, a successful test of the confirmation low day, and today which was very dollar bullish. Sure the "news" was Plosser, but the firepower came from the reversal. Or so I speculate.

We're coming up on resistance at 76.20 ish.

FD: long USD, short euro

Chicago Fed National Activity Index:

http://dshort.com/charts/Chicago-Fed-CFNAI.html?Ch...

The trend is obvious, but we knew that already.

Speaking of post tsunami rally, it may happen but in Emerging markets (wait it's happening already).

As for Japan: http://dshort.com/charts/index.html?international/...

everything is according to a plan: http://dshort.com/charts/index.html?international/...

And you are right, the short term sentiments are too positive: http://www.sentimentrader.com/

So I beg to differ on that one. A number of articles I've read suggest the opposite, at least for people near the plant. Folks in Switzerland will be fine. Those in Fukushima will have more trouble.

In my opinion, reactor #3 has most likely lost containment. It is leaking fission products over the local area, including elements that can only come from melting rods or a live reactor core. The spread of contamination has been assisted by all the water dumped onto the plant in an attempt to keep it from exploding again. Some of the fission products have half-lives of 30 years.

Some of the radioactive water that I think came from the reactor core burned a couple of workers so badly - away from the reactor in a completely different building - they had to be evacuated (180 mSv of exposure, not sure over what time frame). At least 2000 tons of water has been dumped on reactor #3.

Here are some articles with snips:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-22/nuclear-p...
"Japan’s nuclear regulator said one reactor core at the quake-damaged Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant may be cracked and leaking radiation."

During a cultural orientation for my time in Japan, I was told that when a Japanese person says "we have a small problem", one should focus on the word "problem", and not on the word "small". For them to bring it up at all, the problem is necessarily a BIG problem. This makes me think that "may be cracked and leaking" could well be "definitely cracked and leaking."

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/24_45.html
"Another survey conducted by the Tokyo Electric Power Company on Wednesday detected radioactive iodine-131 at 146.9 times the limit, 330 meters away from a water outlet of the nuclear plant. The same substance was detected at a level 19.1 times higher than allowable limits on the coast 16 kilometers south of the plant."

Iodine has a short half-life, measured in days. Cesium, not so much.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/26/world/asia/26jap...
"Japanese officials began encouraging people to evacuate a larger swath of territory around the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant on Friday as new signs emerged that parts of the crippled facility are so damaged and contaminated that it will be hard to bring the plant under control soon. The authorities said that they would now assist people who want to leave the area from 12 to 19 miles outside the plant and that they were now encouraging “voluntary evacuation” from the area."

The contamination will likely make an area around the plant uninhabitable, just like in Chernobyl. The particulars of the area will depend on the wind and the level of contamination. The evacuees at Chernobyl were told they were leaving for three days. They were never let back into the area they left.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20285-fukush...
"Japan's damaged nuclear plant in Fukushima has been emitting radioactive iodine and caesium at levels approaching those seen in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Austrian researchers have used a worldwide network of radiation detectors – designed to spot clandestine nuclear bomb tests – to show that iodine-131 is being released at daily levels 73 per cent of those seen after the 1986 disaster. The daily amount of caesium-137 released from Fukushima Daiichi is around 60 per cent of the amount released from Chernobyl."

Last point. All US Navy ships have evacuated their base at Yokosuka (perhaps 130 miles away from Fukushima Daiichi), including the aircraft carrier USS George Washington, which was undergoing maintenance at the time. It was ordered to sortie without its full crew onboard, and as a result it is unable to conduct normal operations at this time. When the USN steams one of its 12 4.5 billion dollar carriers out of port leaving behind most of the sailors that normally run it, it's really not a good situation.

I'd guess the US military & intelligence branches have radiation sensors that can tell it more or less what is happening. Perhaps they are not sharing specifics with us because they don't want to reveal how sensitive the equipment is, where it is located, and they also don't want to offend the Japanese, who culturally always seem to downplay everything.

I think at this point, I won't listen so much to the news, but rather watch what the US armed forces are doing with their personnel and equipment. In this case, its not "follow the money", its "follow the Aircraft Carrier"...

'The latest Investors Intelligence poll pegged bullish sentiment at 50.6% and bearish sentiment at 22.4%'

Not sure which week those numbers refer to, but this week's numbers are markedly more bullish from a contrarian perspective-

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

For the week ending 3/23/11: Bullish 37.7% and Bearish 35%

Since the indexes are higher now than when the (presumably) earlier survey was taken, I take that as an extremely bullish signal. I think we gap up Monday, probably >100 points on the DJIA.

I may end up being spectacularly wrong, but that's my honest take.

Dave,

"I think at this point, I won't listen so much to the news, but rather watch what the US armed forces are doing with their personnel and equipment. In this case, its not "follow the money", its "follow the Aircraft Carrier"..."

I agree. I just don't think we should be quick to accept any news reports — radio, TV, internet — whether government or "expert" opinion.

The Navy may feel the same, but caution is best where possible IMO.

(I'm in the same mode re: Libya.)

Too much news at warp speed — too little reliability.

In the commentary at the top of the page.

Hi Les, I took a 20% profit in AXPW so thanks. I plan to do some research on this group, it would seem to me that there is room for all these companies, ACPW and BCON having specific niche markets, true there has been some pumped up info on these two but in the long run I think they have a role to play (server sites, operating rooms and such...). Say what you want about John Petersen but his analysis are interesting http://seekingalpha.com/?source=yahoo#article/2596...
Best to you
Earl

sorry Dave, we're not on the same page here. Let me restate the subject line as "for all you radioactive worryworts in Europe". Chernobyl was significantly closer to Europe and the explosive nature of the fallout much greater in impact.

Leaking reactor is an unfortunate situation. An averted explosion due to meltdown is something the world can be thankful for, even as the locals aren't so lucky. Perhaps a good swath of this region being uninhabitable will push Japanese technology and policy to really move ahead with better alternatives like geothermal. Then again, maybe not:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,7...

Ok Les fair enough. If you phrase it from your standpoint in Switzerland, I can certainly agree with you.

So far no more explosions have happened. That's a good thing, and it limits windborne radioactivity as you say. Of course all those tons of water sprayed in and around a reactor leaking fission products does eventually flow somewhere, but probably not all the way to Europe as you point out. One wonders how long the workers at Fukushima Daiichi can continue working at a site when the water is so deadly. And remember, these reactors need constant attention, or they heat up, the pressure rises and they (seemingly) eventually explode or melt down. What a great design.

Only ONE reactor needs to go catastrophically bad, and that will eventually result in the failure of all of them because the area will be so contaminated that workers can no longer work at the plant. In such a case even the currently "cool" reactors will fail eventually because some thing will wear out or break and nobody will be able to go back in and fix it due to radioactivity. Talk about putting your eggs in one basket. And Reactor #3 has likely already broken containment. And the pump in Reactor #5's spent fuel pond (one of the "stable" ones) has stopped working. How long will #5 stay stable without workers to constantly nurse it?

Geothermal?? Perhaps we should test the waters by restarting that geothermal project in Basel! I heard they had some exciting geothermal experiences a while back, right? Bunch of Swiss worryworts put an end to that though. :)

for taking out a liar loan. Surreal. Read it all:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/26/business/26nocer...

The world is hungry for rayon and goes to Canada to get it (dissolving pulp):

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/07/domtar-p...

Chad Wasilenkoff’s Fortress Paper is one of the few companies trying to profit from this. "How Fortress Paper became a TSX star":

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/...

Les, Dave,

1984 is a little late arriving.

I guess I should not be surprised. This only serves to increase my distrust of anything to do with agency at any level of government. I hope he is appealing this distortion of justice.

Talk about profiling! Hey, there's a guy in a Ferrari — Let's check him out! Makes one wonder if there is a bounty in this story or perhaps a quota to meet.

My last year before qualifying for Social Security my accountant told me I wouldn't need to even file. My business had tanked due to manufacturing companies exiting the US and my investments tallied a small loss.

However, because brokers were required only to report the total dollar amount of my trades — nothing about gains vs losses and I had moved large sums in and out of a variety of mutual funds — I received a letter from the IRS.

The result: I had to file a return... to PROVE I did not need to file.

After reading the article I'm now wondering if I am on a watch list. Will too many trades (in the eyes of some agent) bring another letter, or worse?

I'm going to be extra cautious the next time some young chick (say between 50 and 60) tries to hit on me ;-)

Grym

Japan is certainly suffering right now, but we need to be more selective about what stocks we pick to short. Take the auto makers for example:

Japanese auto makers will consider running their factories in rotation to help cut the industry's electricity consumption amid power shortages created by a quake-crippled nuclear plant, Kyodo news agency reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

This looks to be bad news to me. I think it's going to be quite a while before normality is resumed for energy intensive industry.

Vad,

Certainly you are able to speak with a greater degree of authority than most of us, having experienced the end game before.

"Resistance to existing order of things grows gradually and becomes stronger, and guardians of the order lose ability to keep the system from collapse."

I believe this is beginning as seen with the recent struggle between the public unions (Wisconsin as an example) and the rest of the people. Walker was only able to be elected, I believe, because more people are feeling the squeeze on the pockets. It's not jealousy so much as low income, falling home prices and rising taxes.

Where I live for example, a NYT article and video showed a police sergeant in Rockford, Illinois earns $78,000 a year. He is also able to retire while still quite young and will cost the city at least $100,000 each year in retirement.

There was a time, when our manufacturing companies were going strong that no one asked what he earned. Now with over 14% unemployment and massive underemployment it is an issue. The money just isn't here for such anymore.

Perhaps it real change will happen sooner than I expect — almost everything does these days.
-------
"USSR was suppressing the resistance, not allowing problems to be discussed and solved in a reasonable way. That put it on inevitable collapse course. USA, being open and democratic society (and it is, whatever skeptics may think), has a shot on reversing the crash trajectory."

I think the chief controlling factor in the US is suppression of real data and 24/7 ability to flood our minds with distraction and half truths. The media too often simply repeats what "official" numbers are given to them without question.

Hi Les, where I live south of Houston Texas it is and remains the builders causing problems. The reputation of used car salesmen can't compare to the stories of arm twisting these builder sales departments created. I consider them to continue to be a profound problem. And the builder will stop at nothing to throw up a box. Very sad but communities are starting to wise up and fire city managers and such that have been on the favor roles...
Regards
Earl

2nd - "I don't pretend to be well informed."

I don't mind being quoted, but the quote needs to be accurate:

I don't pretend to be 'well-informed.'

Big difference, my friend.

I agree with Vadym. The system must be changed. But i am all for leadership and CEO's also being squeezed. No not jail time. the kind that hurts these type of beings the most. Hit their greed. Take their assets and money. Push them into corners to spill their guts on how and why and who are all involved.

On a weekend where 400k+ people in London riot, a modern top 3 banking and consumer metropolis, I have hope that people all over the world realize the simple truth. if people unite and protest, vote with our labor and money, bad men, bad laws, & bad companies will fall.

PS and that article is sickening. The system and top execs have been untouched. I myself will not be taking out any mortgage/loan or buying any financial instrument, until the system is dismantled.

ALOHA!!

Unless the IRS has changed its ways since I was working there in the early 1980s, which it may have, the number one rule was to keep errant taxpayers who could pay their liabilities out of jail. What good is a jailed taxpayer since the tax revenue abruptly ends and the burden to government to house the inmate immediately begins, not to mention the cost of court.

In the 1990s the cost to build a jail cell in California was $175,000 per cell and the cost to house an inmate was $35,000 per year. My company built jail cells in Corcoran, Ione and Yolo in the 1990s. I am oh so sure those costs are probably at least 50% higher now, since one of the most powerful unions is the California Corrections Officers.

To incarcerate this guy was a stupid move because now he will have popular support through his BLOG and the IRS will be once again portrayed as the GESTAPO that it is. Brilliant victory agents ... you just birthed your own demise. I need to look myself in the mirror every morning and then be able to sleep at night and that is why I decided to quit the IRS.

Luggie -

I'm unconvinced that liberal arm-twisting lay at the root of the crisis. I have never seen anyone make a credible case based on numbers or evidence. Care to cite one to back up your allegations? I'd be interested to read it. I'd be especially interested to see an explanation of how regulators appointed by the Bush administration who were so hands off in most banking matters chose to enforce the misguided liberal diktat of Schumer, Rangel, and Frank so assiduously that it ended up being the root cause of the crisis.

From the beginning of the story I suspected problems were much bigger that reported. The fact that they are dealing with 6 damaged reactors and huge amounts of spent fuel makes it more difficult to handle than Chernobyl already.

As for the workers with radiation skin burns on legs, this dose is not dangerous locally. This dose would be serious if distributed to organs sensitive to radiation (bone marrow, intestines, brain, etc). Radiation oncologists often use local doses of 20-30 Gy and that is tolerated very well with little problems. Same dose to entire body would be 2-3x lethal.

Nobody would be so stupid to keep shorting for 6 months with no stops.

The creator of the Omen explained back then in an interview (too lazy to look it up this late) that he thought there will be an upcoming major buying opportunity in emerging markets. He was absolutely right as they went on sale for months and only bottomed now. IMHO, the US equities are too screwed up by interventions to be counted as fair game.

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/live/africa/live-blog-l...
"2:17am Coalition forces were carrying out intensive air strikes on pro-Gaddafi forces on the 400 km long road between Ajdabiya and Sirte, in the east, a government spokesman said Saturday."

I find it interesting that the No Fly Zone has morphed into a blank check to conduct airstrikes on pretty much anything that certain members of the coalition don't like. "I think that tank 200 km from the nearest city might eventually be a threat to civilians" - BOOM, gone.

Air supremacy facing a mobile land force in the desert is lethal - to the land force. If the people in the cities don't like you, and you don't have air cover, you die, there is no place to hide. Ghadaffi should replay what happened during Gulf War 1 for clues as to his field army's future. Perhaps he was suckered - first the US talks about how difficult a NFZ will be to implement, we stall at the UN until his field army deploys, then once they are at the gates of Benghazi, pass a "blank check to protect civilians" resolution, and then bomb the daylights out of the overextended field army until it is gone or disperses due to complete morale failure.

The true test will be in Tripoli. When Ghadaffi's field army is dispersed, and the rebels arrive in the city, what will the people of Tripoli do? If they join in, Ghadaffi is done.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/03/21/110797_a1107...

as commented over at Jesse's - what gives?

http://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/insured/tempo...

Officials: Measurement of huge spike in radiation at Japanese nuclear plant was a mistake

http://tinyurl.com/457rlvt

TOKYO (AP) -- Emergency workers struggling to pump contaminated water from Japan's stricken nuclear complex fled from one of the troubled reactors Sunday after reporting a huge increase in radioactivity -- a spike that officials later apologetically said was inaccurate.

The apology came after employees fled the complex's Unit 2 reactor when a reading showed radiation levels had reached 10 million times higher than normal in the reactor's cooling system. Officials said they were so high that the worker taking the measurements had withdrawn before taking a second reading.

On Sunday night, though, plant operators said that while the water was contaminated with radiation, the extremely high reading was a mistake.

"The number is not credible," said Tokyo Electric Power Co. spokesman Takashi Kurita. "We are very sorry."

He said officials were taking another sample to get accurate levels, but did not know when the results would be announced.

The situation came as officials acknowledged there was radioactive water in all four of the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex's most troubled reactors, and as airborne radiation in Unit 2 measured 1,000 millisieverts per hour -- four times the limit deemed safe by the government, Kurita said.

Officials say they still don't know where the radioactive water is coming from, though government spokesman Yukio Edano has said some is "almost certainly" seeping from a cracked reactor core in one of the units.

While the discovery of the high radiation levels -- and the evacuation of workers from one reactor unit -- again delayed efforts to bring the deeply troubled complex under control, Edano insisted the situation had partially stabilized.

"We have somewhat prevented the situation from turning worse," he told reporters Sunday evening. "But the prospects are not improving in a straight line and we've expected twists and turns. The contaminated water is one of them and we'll continue to repair the damage."

The discovery over the last three days of radioactive water has been a major setback in the mission to get the plant's crucial cooling systems operating more than two weeks after a massive earthquake and tsunami.

http://tinyurl.com/lmns8y

We have a few coming up-

(a) End of Q1 window-dressing.
(b) Q2 Earnings pre-announcements/optimism.
(c) Factory Orders/Chicago PMI.
(d) Payrolls on Friday.

A 2+% week is not out of the question, which is all it would take to print new highs for the year.

Don't know if this has been posted previously, but here’s a new and free resource for individual stock analysis…you’ll need MS Silverlight.

Just enter any stock symbol and hit “Go”……wait for the accompanying resources to load-up on the left side of the dashboard and bingo, lot’s of info at your fingertips….very cool!

http://stocks.overthefalls.com/

I share your concerns.

There are a few troubling signs. I don't like how gold is making new highs and GDX lower highs. Same for the SLV/SLW divergence.

As I posted previously, I believe we are very close to a major top in SLV/GLD/GDX, within a month or 10%. The big question is is it worth the risk now and whether taking the profits now is the way to go?

Not sure the answer yet. May need to start a slow scale out from my long GDX.

Very nice and efficient !

I studied the charts more today and I'm convinced that the peak in the Philly Fed Prices Paid Minus Prices Received Index I posted link to means there is an upcoming disinflation or deflation.

If anyone has any alternative explanations, please let me know.

Here we go again. The market media making poison out of reasonably good results and creating the climate for another sell off. Could it be that the pin-striped analyst crowd find the bald guy a little too clever, and a little too rich? They will not allow sensible guidance regarding the next quarter, and prefer to ignore the facts. An eleven percent drop in after-hours trading based on a possible 10 percent reduction in QUARTERLY sales? Gimme a break! I put in an order Thursday night for an additional 200 shares of RIM @ 56.50 and the order was filled at the Friday open at 55.80. Call me contrary, but I smell opportunity.

Allow me to use Bill's "Back up the truck!" phrase, and here's why:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/mark...

It is not unreasonable to expect RIM to go below 50 or well above 70 in the next 30 to 60 days, so let's dance!

FD: 800 shares and holding

The new highly anticipated mortgage system comes into effect April 1 compliments of Dodd Frank and the Fed Reg Z Rule handcuffing mortgage lenders to fixed pricing. Should I wish to be nice and pay for your appraisal or help you with costs from my (reduced, capped) fee that will now be illegal. Rates have no where to go but up to cover the new compliance issues, people and paperwork. Expect strictly ballroom underwriting necessary to get a loan. Only the really good liars will get loans now.

Dollar futures are higher now than Friday peak.

Hope you can open these - pretty funny and good stuff too.

http://www.pjtv.com/?cmd=mpg&mpid=84&load=5140

http://www.pjtv.com/?cmd=mpg&mpid=84&load=5120

Japan is alot worse then is being reported.
At least according to Donald Felsinger.
He would know.

Marketwatch opines that housing is dead and the middle class doesn't matter at all in the scheme of things or else we would be saving jobs(!):

"In terms of housing’s impact on the economy, we just don’t have that much left to lose. We’ve already lost $8.3 trillion in wealth."
Rex Nutting, Market Watch

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-is-dead-i...

So the weekend didn't bring any more drama, just slow remediation efforts at the plant. Pumping the dreadfully radioactive water out of turbine room #1 to the main reactor condenser is in progress. And apparently only small additional amounts of persistent radiation (highest reading 1200 bq of cesium-137) was dropped on nearby provinces, which says radioactivity in the exclusion areas aren't getting dramatically worse. Fresh water is now being injected into reactors #1, #2, and #3 - better than salt water. White smoke is still coming from reactors #1-4.

So no black swan this weekend. Euro, SPX, and NIKKEI are all off slightly, less than 0.3%.

JNK - something I've started monitoring every day and something I decided to bring myself up to speed on, so as to understand its place as an indicator of risk.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/220390-just-one-et...

The above author is a money manager and who was bullish on JNK - or high yielding corporate debt - late last year as the 200MA was broken as resistance. Bill has spoken of the all important 200MA elsewhere as a buy/sell signal for traders. Lydon was bullish last year because:

"If the American economy continued to improve in both the near and long terms, the sector could move significantly."

My interest in JNK now is due to its testing the 200MA for the first time since that crossover last year. So straight away the test of the 200MA suggest to me a possible crack in that positive thesis given for buying last year. The sector is not moving significantly - it's testing major support.

JB's thoughts regarding disinflation led me to look at T-yields. Although Econoday shows the improving yield picture over the last 9 months...

http://fidweek.econoday.com/reports/rc/2011/Resour...

... a downwards sloping channel is forming in recent days on a number of different T-bonds. As Lydon points out that investors seek better yields as part of their portfolio strategy they abandon relatively low yielding treasuries and hit junk bond high yield for a little extra risk/reward. Could be that this trend is reversing. Something to watch.

TLT is not the best investment exposure to treasuries from what I've read, but it has db'd and the MACD trend has returned positive. Bill has called it the wall of worry. I see that investors have found the wall and are deciding whether they want to climb it yet. I don't see definitive trend. JMO

Oh and Pimco likes emerging market debt long-term JB. That's something I might have to pay attention to.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Pimco-Mark-Kiesel-Em...