Bill Cara's Blog for Mar 3, 2011 [See Post-Close report]

http://www.cbc.ca/documentaries/natureofthings/201...

>>Peru is in the midst of an unprecedented resource “rush” – 72% of the jungle has been zoned for oil development alone. And according to recent studies, in just 10 years nearly half the Peruvian rainforest–one of the most biologically diverse areas on Earth–may be past the point of no return if current rates of deforestation continue.<<

It makes me sad reading this but also having seen part of it with my own eyes in a visit to the Amazon last year.

Excellent results for Bill's account - his timing is everything. Great call...not specified in the blog, but helped these as well:

GPL up 29%
CDE up 22%

Now if the prices will just "stick".

I believe you but no way of checking. Actually I was wondering myself yesterday how come dollar is mostly flat intraday, but has huge losses overnight. I think it has to do with 24 hrs forex trading. Similar may affect silver.

Eliot Spitzer says regulators could do more to prosecute those involved in the financial crisis.

http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2011/02/28/n_spitz...

Good ol' BAC........
I'm taking her twin sister C.@ 4.60 yesterday

4ever -

I have a tool to track this sort of thing. It checks to see over a period of time what the gains are and where - does it open up, move up during the day, open down, or move down during the day. Also included are reversal days, where it opens up, and then closes below the open, and where it opens down, and closes higher.

My data suggests whoever claimed this is correct. Silver is best traded overnight, sold in the morning, and bought in the evening. On Tuesdays. :)

SLV since 2006-04-28:

1232 trading days, +19.84 points, 670 up days, 562 down days
open up: 120.25 points, 718 days, avg 0.17 points
open down: -94.81 points, 514 days, avg -0.18 points
day up: 106.25 points, 590 days, avg 0.18 points
day down: -111.85 points, 642 days, avg -0.17 points
reverse up: 95.81 points, 268 days, avg 0.36 points
reverse down: -122.91 points, 350 days, avg -0.35 points

Which days did the gains come on?
Monday +1.57
Tuesday +5.02
Wednesday +12.33
Thursday -4.83
Friday +5.75

Not a problem, Earl. Everything's a trade, and there are infinite ways to make money.

ECB hawkishness aside, another positive for the euro is that Eurozone retail sales were up 0.4% compared to the same month last year.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Gold reaches a record high. Is it telling us something?

Gold closed $1437.70 on Wednesday, using the CME April contract as the measure, up $28.40 so far this week and breaking through significant technical barriers.

Over the weekend, Australia’s The Privateer had growled: “Just as it has since early November 2010, the area between $1,400 and $1,425 is proving a firm ‘ceiling’ for gold.”

The Gartman Letter was more direct on Tuesday: “Someone … or something … has kept a virtual lid on the gold market at or near $1,414-$1,416 for the past many months and has certainly been at work for the past two weeks making certain that gold does not push upward through that level.”

Consequently the new, adjusted gold chart looks very exciting. Pring Research put out an early Weekly Infomovie Report on Wednesday morning, saying of the (for practical purposes identical to gold) SPDR Gold Trust ETF /quotes/comstock/13*!gld/quotes/nls/gld (GLD 139.01, -0.91, -0.65%) chart: “The break-out is likely to be a valid one. That’s important because these consolidation formations are typically followed by price moves far in excess of that suggested by their size.”

http://tinyurl.com/4euekjf

You're right!
I put all the SLV historic data of finance.yahoo in a spreadsheet, and the result is clear.
Buying at the close the day before, and selling at the open is a great tactic, the result is about double (!) than the buy and wait strategy. On the contrary the intraday approach (buy at the open and sell at the close) is suicidal and with a negative result!
Anyway I must point out that looking at the data for example from 1.1.2010 till today, the result is different: the intraday tactic is still the worst (but positive), on the contrary buy and hold was slightly better than buying the day before at the closing price and selling at the open the next day...
Sorry, no more time now to put the spreadsheet on line.

Hi All - I have held this one for a while, but it has stalled out with the risk trade being muted. Here is a clip from a release today: Titan Uranium updated the Indicated Resource at its Sheep Mountain project showing a significant increase to the Mineral Resource at the company's 100 percent owned Sheep Mountain uranium project in Fremont County, Wyoming. The new estimate of Indicated Mineral Resources totals approximately 30.4 million lbs eU3O8 (13,841,000 tons averaging 0.110% eU3O8). This represents an increase of 14.4 million lbs, a 90.0% increase from the mineral resources previously reported on March 4, 2010. Not too sure of the project economics yet and expect it will require actual mine development vs. in situ (lower cost) operations. Happy Trading

AAPL - estimates increased at Goldman through 2013, Goldman Sachs said. iPad 2 should continue to drive sales. Buy rating and $450 price target.

COST - estimates, target raised at Goldman. Shares of COST now seen reaching $80, according to Goldman Sachs. Estimates also increased, as fundamentals are improving. Buy rating.

DOW - numbers boosted at Morgan Stanley. Shares of DOW now seen reaching $48, according to Morgan Stanley. Estimates also upped, as the company should continue to expand margins. Overweight rating.

JOYG - numbers upped at Goldman. JOYG estimates were boosted through 2013, Goldman Sachs said. Company is seeing higher equipment sales and aftermarket demand. Buy rating and new $114 price target.

RIMM - numbers boosted at BMO. Shares of RIMM now seen reaching $100. Estimates also upped, as checks show solid international demand. Outperform rating.

Dennis Gartman's Simple Rules of Trading:

http://tinyurl.com/65r7lms

EDIT: Apart from the book "Reminiscences of a stock operator", those rules have been one of the most helpful tools I have had for making profits.

Thanks for the link Baz. BTW - XSNX this morning...
regards,
Earl

Vad, a most excellent chart – That last upside down hammer is also a sell signal to me.
Regards,
Earl

To me, it's still at the "shot across the bow" stage... I'd need more confirmation before I start treating this as reversal and market as bearish. I mean, how many times bears have had the chance and just couldn't roll with it? Could easy turn out to be just another one of those still.

Look at this same chart and envision bounce into 135 area, little retreat, consolidation for a few days and break - would be classic breakout formation after shallow pullback, wouldn't it... As I said, it's a structure-bringing tool that helps decide on your course of action and signs to watch for, not a predictive tool.

Vad, where can I get these kinds of real-time charts to closely watch the girations of some of my own stocks?

TIA

glancing at the charts, this formation is identical to that of May 1 2010 or late November 2011. So it could go both ways I guess.

I'd assume broker should provide them? If not, there are plenty of third party chart vendors, not sure about their comparative quality as I have no first-hand experience with any of them

Thanks for sharing Dennis Gartman's Rules. Sometimes we all need to be reminded of the simple things in this complicated world.

firing the torpedo's as I write... dndn

Nice results = Big returns. I like this one as much if not more than my other pick CRESY.

http://www.sqm.com/aspx/en/Default.aspx

Cheers.

On Feb. 28th ...
___________________________________________________________________________
“We’ve got three great mines that we’re building over the next five years,” Kinross Chief Executive Officer Tye Burt said today in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Hollywood, Florida. “We don’t really need to make big acquisitions right now.”

The purchase of Red Back in September was Toronto-based Kinross’s largest acquisition to date, giving it two gold mines in Africa including the Tasiast project in Mauritania. The company is seeking to reduce costs with new projects, Burt said.

“We think we just bought the world’s best new gold mine,” Burt said of the Red Back deal. “The great thing about the new mines we’re adding is that they are lower than our average cash costs across the company.”
______________________________________________________________________________

If they are adding "the world's best new gold mine" shouldn't the stock price reflect that? I guess the market thinks they bought Redback while gold is at a high... Wouldn't it follow that gold will fall from here... if you evaluate it on how the market views KGC right now?

The weekly rsi14 is at levels last seen in May 2004 fwiw

btw, what's going on with gix? volume and price is rising well

Thanks Bill, I am using stockcharts rsi 14, per attachment has only been lower in May 2004 an late 2000.

Fortunately grabbed some GIX late last week, thanks for the discussions which have been a help to step in.

tried to buy some last week when it was .68 but order would not fill. what are we thinking about the current 1.02?
thanks in advance
Earl

Here is another worth watching video explaining what is really going on.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0EC14YP4gA&NR=1&fe...

Bill, thank you. it's GXEXF to me - I have 3k. these crossed up symbols are driving me nuts LOL. Fidelity is supposed to start supporting the .TO and others soon - not soon enough for me...
regards,
Earl

You did not mention the 117 Billion of debt they have in your analysis? F is risky in my opinion.

Honestly, there's been a great deal of good news as far as earnings and unemployment.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/car-sales-bask-in...

It is curious. All these bullish news stories with F and GM both off 20% from their highs. Why has their stock performed so poorly lately? Its not like these are small companies ignored by Wall Street. And with the overall market making new highs, one would think they'd get dragged along for the ride.

Comparing F and GM to SPY, we see they've been dramatically underperforming the overall market. Its so confusing, we're supposed to buy low, yet we aren't supposed to try and catch falling knives. Are these wet paper bags we're supposed to throw rocks at, or straw hats we're supposed to buy in the wintertime? :)

FD: No position

Since Nov 2010 EEM, INP, FXI, etc. etc. have been making lower lows and lower highs while US stocks did the opposite.

I went back and analyzed long term charts and the only time period I found with similar discrepancy was mid 2008 (before the crash).

Should we be worried about it? Is there some alternative explanation besides emerging markets leading global economy?

Hi Jack, I've seen the same thing as you asked me about EEM I believe it was yesterday. My response was 'what will drive it higher'? Jihad? Bernaq is supporting our market every trading day as reported here many times over - heck, he's probably doing the same in the EU countries. I'm not a bull or a bear - but I do own some insurance on this market. Thank you very much for the post!
regards,
Earl

below is a product of my googling for the same question. I have to agree with the concerns below. Notice the reference to 2000 and 2008. I figured out the 2008 similarity myself. I need to read more on Yamada to see her previous track record.

from: https://news.fidelity.com/news/article.jhtml?guid=...

Emerging markets began to lag the developed markets around the turn of the year, counter to the dominant trend in place for a decade, according to Louise Yamada, the eponymous head of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors.

What's interesting, she continues in her February Technical Perspectives for clients, is that periods of emerging-market underperformance in 2000 and 2008 were associated with bear markets in both emerging and established markets.

"The deterioration in the emerging markets' patterns could be putting up a yellow flag for the rest of the world," she writes. "With emerging markets moving into the engine of global growth, if these markets correct, the developed markets might inevitably follow, even as they currently outperform."

That said, Yamada expresses concerns about "double tops" forming in several emerging market indexes. Double tops refer to a chart formation in which a stock or index sets a peak, retreats, and then tops out at the same level as the previous peak. That pattern typically is associated with the end of a bull trend.

Markets where Yamada sees negative chart patterns forming include South Korea's Kospi, India's Nifty and Sensex Indexes, Brazil's Bovespa and Taiwan's TAIEX and China's Shanghai Composite

Another divergence between Asia and the U.S. has emerged during the current earnings season. Since Jan. 10, when companies started releasing results for the December quarter, about 70% of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 that have reported have beaten analysts' consensus estimates. By contrast, 42 of the 76 companies in the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index have missed estimates, Bloomberg reports.

Yamada says the charts in major developed non-U.S. markets also bear watching. Both the U.K. and Hong Kong markets are running into resistance at the same resistance levels encountered in 2007-2008, she notes, and may be on the verge of sell signals. Hong Kong's Hang Seng remains in an uptrend but appears to be struggling around the 24,000-25,000 level. "At the least, a simple pullback toward 12,500 could come into play," she writes.

Mutual fund investors may be catching on to these trends. According to the latest Lipper fund flow data, fund investors continue to emphasize domestic equity funds while they curb their enthusiasm for foreign equity funds -- the opposite of the pattern seen last year.

In the week ended Feb. 9, domestic equity drew $2.1 billion while non-domestic funds attracted $500 million. Taxable fixed-income funds took in $3.7 billion while $1.2 billion flowed out of municipal-bond funds.

The waning exuberance for foreign investing could be a reflection that valuations no longer are outstandingly cheap in emerging markets after their ascendance last year. Meanwhile, U.S. investors' ardor for domestic stocks and taxable bonds remains undiminished, as does their aversion to munis.

But, as Yamada says, underperformance of emerging markets has tended to declines in all stock markets. The warning breezes may be coming from the East, she says.

Jack, that's great research! Thank you. If Louise Yamada's harbinger thoughts turned out, do you believe money would come home to the US market before the East truely led the markets down? If I read it correctly that's what was mentioned.

Mutual fund investors may be catching on to these trends. According to the latest Lipper fund flow data, fund investors continue to emphasize domestic equity funds while they curb their enthusiasm for foreign equity funds -- the opposite of the pattern seen last year.

the picture I'm getting here is some positive momentum into the US market followed by the potential of a selloff in the BRIC, then a selloff in the US and other mature markets.

But the problems in the EU are still with us...

I just read Kaimu's quote reposted by 4ever - powerful statement, trouble not only for the small investor but even the lower level hedge funds. I guess GS can simply whipe the floor with the smaller guys. They made their 2010 profits buying up ford (example) at $2 dollars.

Regards,
Earl

I should save this as a signature.

Whenever prices gain some, I remember the wisdom of this quote:

"But like the great Kodiak grizzly bears waiting along side the Alaskan streams for spawning Salmon, so to the big US Banks like Goldman Sachs are waiting for the unsuspecting traders seeking to mate with profits!"
-Kaimu, Bill Cara Blog 9/25/09

I agree that traders shifted from the PMs to equities today. Also think equities will continue to rise with POMO - it makes a huge difference. QE3,4,...maybe another $trillion(or two). Mr. Bernanke is on a mission. Kinda like in search of the holy grail.

I posted this quote relative to PMs. It's a small market & easily changed when desired. JPM needs some dough to fight the lawsuits, so be prepared for anything. I took a little off the table today. Maybe give up a little opportunity cost, but hope to make it up after the dip. I'll definitely be back.

http://tinyurl.com/4dun6cs

If you could read my mind, love,
What a tale my thoughts could tell.
Just like an old time movie,
'Bout a ghost from a wishing well.
In a castle dark or a fortress strong,
With chains upon my feet.
You know that ghost is me.
And I will never be set free
As long as I'm a ghost that you can't see.

Is it possible to read the collective mind behind market moves? I'd probably ask Vad.

For someone who normally buys on negativity, today's bet on higher prices was a different strategy. Yet it did not feel as if I were chasing- more like sweeping snow off the runway for takeoff.

We've seen the one-day 'flash crash.' Is there any reason we can't have the 1500->667->1500 3-year version?

No , one reason would be , we or most of us don't know all of the time bombs still embedded in the banking system . One would be in 2008 there were seven major investment banks , there are now five . Those five picked up the juicy morsels of the two that fell . Now the remaining five are bigger than they were in 2008 , when we were told they were then TOO BIG TO FAIL . Hopefully I am wrong . Full disclosure I don't own one . Bob

Utah Considers Return to Gold, Silver Coins and there eleven similar bills in statehouses across the country .http://tinyurl.com/5wpf3pb
Bob .

I watched some of Louise Yamada's interviews from different time points (easy to find by googling) and I'm impressed by her skills and track record. I would not discount this phenomenon lightly.
I see more warning signs around like many financials or even mighty GS struggling to approach their 2009 highs, VIX stopped going down since december, TED spread going up since november, Baltic dry index very weak lately, or even the falling copper miners I short on and off since january.

01/26/2011 by Brandon Matthews writing for satwvespro.com

http://satwavespro.com/2011/01/26/too-big-to-fail-...

President Barrack Obama seemed quite pleased with a roaring stock market during his speech last night, leaving out the fact that Main Street America and retail investors have not participated in the Fed manipulated and created equity bubble. The reason this is true is clear. Americans do not trust the market and they certainly do not trust the Securities & Exchange Commission to protect their interests.

If you steal a candy bar from a convenience store, you could face a year in jail and a thousand dollar fine. If however you are a well known Wall Street firm, you can steal billions from retail investors and only have to pay back a small portion of the money you stole, while promising (with fingers crossed) to not do that again. The S.E.C. is great at taking the small time drug dealer off a street corner, yet ignores the smuggler bringing the mother load to town. It’s token arrests of small time players do little to bolster investor confidence...

BTW - this site is looking for contributors to author reports. This site belongs to Brandon Matthews and he's pretty much salt of the earth...
http://satwavespro.com/author/

regards
Earl

http://tinyurl.com/4njvn4c

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — I used to joke that on Wall Street, the long term lasted just from lunch until dinner.

Now I don’t think it’s a joke. The reaction times on Wall Street have become so compressed that market moves that used to take several weeks, if not months, often are now exhausted in just a couple of days.

Clearly, we’re all succumbing to attention deficit disorder.

In my column on Tuesday of this week, I had hinted that reaction times appeared to have markedly shortened. Confirmation of this comes from an extensive study of my stock market and gold sentiment indices — the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI) and the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI). The study, which focused on daily readings of those indices back to 1985, more than 25 years ago, searched for correlations between different index levels and the markets’ subsequent returns. ( Read my Tuesday column.)

Prior to the last decade, for example, the strongest correlations were at the three-month horizon. Correlations with subsequent one-month performance, though statistically significant, were somewhat weaker. At the two-week horizon there was no statistically significant correlation at all.

In recent years, in contrast, the situation has reversed itself dramatically. Now there is no statistically significant correlation with the three-month horizon. And not only have correlations at the two-week horizon become statistically significant, they now even exceed those that prevail at the one-month horizon.

I've attributed my own rapid bull->bear->bull sentiment shifts to an acquired taste for ST trading strategies. But apparently it's only an expected response to an ADD market.