Bill Cara's Blog for Mar 4, 2011 [See Post-Close report]

German Two-Year Government Notes Rise on Peripheral Borrowing Cost Concern
http://bloom.bg/e2ISmP

Not sure whether we should be worried yet. Trichet may not even raise rates, but if yesterday's plunge in EURIBOR futures is anything to go by, the market certainly thinks he will. Meanwhile the technical analysts are predicting the euro will extend its advance to $1.4450.

Euro May Extend Advance to 13-Month High of $1.4450: Technical Analysis
http://bloom.bg/flFcNn

Love your morning comments. You say " The answer was always simple. It’s when We the People decide to put a stop to it."

I agree. But it doesn't seem like anyone is doing anything about it. Gone are the days when people used to organize marches and rallies on Washington. I am absolutely stunned that there was NO uprising against bankers/politicians during and after the 2008-9 meltdown - especially when the truth became apparent to all. I do not understand Americans anymore. Nobody seems to collectively give a damn. It seems that a collective intertia and paralysis is rampant. Have Americans just given up?

If employment numbers are disappointing (who knows, most of that is fluctuation), stocks may dive badly.

I read article yesterday liking USA economy to a patient on ventilator (Fed liquidity breaths, right now we are in the breathe in phase). The twist is doctors forgot to wean the patient out of ventilator when there was time (weaning window familiar to pulmonologists) and now it's too late and the patient will live forever in a hospital. Japan post 1990, another long term patient.

Edit: never mind, I just saw the employment numbers above. I guess the rally yesterday was due to leaked numbers. QQQQ is actually going down some premarket.

Edit2: The more I think, the employment numbers could be negative for the markets as that means delayed QE3 (less ventilator pressure). Dollar seems to react positively premarket.

Unfortunately, this country's culture is too civil. We should be picketing and throwing rocks at HB&B headquarters and their CEOs. Obama should be pressured to distance himself from banksters. Someone ought to organize internet revolution just like Arabs did. They put us to shame.

There's a new sign hangin over Washington D.C. and the USofA spirit. It reads:

"OUT OF ORDER" - signed the management

The system is basically set up to keep Wall Street in place and to prevent a revolt. The pension/401k/retirement setup restricts people from freely accessing their funds with significant tax penalties, complex paperwork, etc. for pulling it out or moving it. So the mostly uneducated public keep their heads down, working, and sending money on a regular basis to Wall Street. Subsequently, Wall street cronies devise deceptive ways to extract the money quietly, or quickly, while the public is unaware and restricted.

Most of the workers on Wall Street know the system is impenetrable and won't do anything. It is going to have come from masses of people pulling their money out...but what are they going to do with it? Also, businesses would collapse...it would hurt the economy as a whole. A systemic overhaul is what is needed and no one with any power is going to push it...not in the near future.

It is going to have to come from the grass roots, from a leader who can educate the public in a clear and pointed manner gradually building widespread support. Along with that...the pain must be significant to the public...eventually until they have had enough. We are from that...I believe.

IBM - IBM initiated with an Outperform at CLSA. Target $180

I cut and paste this from above report:
We recommend investors continue to hold SLW shares for the near-term potential of sharply higher silver prices. However on a 12-month view we believe SLW shares are approaching full value, and have revised our recommendation from Outperform to Neutral.
Silver futures contracts remain in backwardation due to strong retail and industrial demand exacerbated by a recent surge in producer hedging activity. While we believe the current tightness is a shorter duration phenomenon there remains potential for a material spike. Longer term, we believe the gold:silver ratio could trend back to the 10 year average of 61:1 from current levels of 41:1. We include sensitivity analysis in this note.

Too Big to Fail?
Submitted by ea32da32 (451 comments) on Fri, 03/04/2011 - 03:30 #80844
01/26/2011 by Brandon Matthews writing for satwvespro.com

http://satwavespro.com/2011/01/26/too-big-to-fail-...

President Barrack Obama seemed quite pleased with a roaring stock market during his speech last night, leaving out the fact that Main Street America and retail investors have not participated in the Fed manipulated and created equity bubble. The reason this is true is clear. Americans do not trust the market and they certainly do not trust the Securities & Exchange Commission to protect their interests.

If you steal a candy bar from a convenience store, you could face a year in jail and a thousand dollar fine. If however you are a well known Wall Street firm, you can steal billions from retail investors and only have to pay back a small portion of the money you stole, while promising (with fingers crossed) to not do that again. The S.E.C. is great at taking the small time drug dealer off a street corner, yet ignores the smuggler bringing the mother load to town. It’s token arrests of small time players do little to bolster investor confidence...

BTW - this site is looking for contributors to author reports. This site belongs to Brandon Matthews and he's pretty much salt of the earth...
http://satwavespro.com/author/

regards
Earl

Crash Course: Chapter 16 - Fuzzy Numbers by Chris Martenson
Submitted by ea32da32 (451 comments) on Fri, 03/04/2011 - 04:15 #80845
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPkTItOXuN0&feature...

the FED - garbage in, garbage out - garbage all about... Hedonics...

Well, LEI is on fire too!!!
regards,
Earl

Another of Hulbert's takes:

http://tinyurl.com/4oe4f5z

While it was entirely normal for those small-cap and growth sectors to have led the market higher during the earlier phases of this bull market, it is increasingly surprising that they continue to do so. The typical pattern during prior bull markets is for the shift toward the large-cap and value ends of the spectrum to have occurred well before the two-year mark.

To be sure, such a shift has been widely anticipated for some time and, at least so far, predictions that it was imminent have been premature. But, with each passing month in which the small-cap and growth sectors have continued to be strong, the odds in favor of large-cap and value become that much stronger.

Another reason to take a look at DJIA components. FD- Long BAC, CSCO, INTC.

Your new nickname is Crystal Bill. :)

Will it stick, ride the escalator up or the elevator down?

Well - we just broke through the 27 year low of 41 on the Silver:Gold ratio, now at about 40.5. I think we may be in for a wild ride under 40. The early 1980 silver super spike brought the ratio down to about 15, briefly.

With gold held constant at $1,430 - should a super spike in silver occur - here is a look at where the silver price would be at various ratio levels:

35:1 - $40.86
30:1 - $47.66
25:1 - $57.20
20:1 - $71.50
15:1 - $95.33

What if this is the beginning of the super spike? What would happen to the ratio if markets suddenly came to the realization that future supply at current demand rates were only about eight or nine years? Hmmm...

Well, that certainly doesn't work for either oil or nat gas.

Jack, that was a great read you posted yesterday - https://news.fidelity.com/news/article.jhtml?guid=...

regards,
Earl

There is now a chronic oversupply of natural gas and nowhere for it go. It is being over-produced because it is a by-product of drilling oil wells and oil prices are getting higher and higher. At $100 oil, many of the producers can turn a profit on the oil even if there was no revenue generated by the natgas by-product. Unlike a bar of silver or a gold coin, there is nowhere to hold the commodity and sit and wait out the storm for a brighter day. Absent an unexpected event that would seriously impact production (natural disasters, producer bankruptcies) or consumption (adoption of new natgas technology, which does not happen overnight). Natural gas may be in the doghouse for awhile longer, perhaps years, until something changes

GM's supersized gov't subsidy produces innovation no one wants. Proof is now in the numbers: Volt is DOA. Nissan's Leaf is in the same league but without the taxpayer paying for it. Guess Carlos Ghosn got spread too thin in his G6 running between Yokohama (Nissan) and Boulogne-Billancourt (Renault).

http://tinyurl.com/4u5l3yk

Here's the Volt's inspiration and key competitor:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMZ_cycle-car

Has anyone considered what will happen to F stock price when the POMO music stops? Anyone?

Cheers.

Continuing to build what will hopefully be a LT portfolio for 2011.

ALOHA!!

Since I do not have TV here in the jungle of Hawaii I do not even know if that TV game show SURVIVOR is still on. That is where a contestant wins $1MIL USD for surviving the rigors and pitfalls of a very harsh environment in some Third World country for a 30 day period.

Intraday today I have become a winner of SURVIVOR TSXV when PMI GOLD-PMV:TSXV crossed the $1.06CDN line. Intraday the share price surged to $1.08CDN. My first $1MIL junior position since I started in this tiny sector back in 2002. Since then I have seen many investors come in as well as some of the largest banks and brokerages in the World. This is especially true of Australia and Canada, however investors here in the USA have for the most part missed it all since no brokerage to my knowledge will ever tout a junior explorer with a share price below $1USD. My lowest buy-in for PMV during the GFC, pre-split was $0.03CDN, but I did participate in a few Private Placements(PP).

Interesting to think that during the GFC you could have bought 100,000 shares of PMV for $3,000CDN and two years later its worth over $50,000CDN. Not many banks anywhere in the World can offer those kinds of returns. Not to mention PMV has outperformed the POG and POS and the HUI, the S&P AAPL, GOOG, the NASDAQ and the DOW to boot. Buy and hold ... one trade $0.03CDN, turn off the computer, no charts, no news and voile ... two years later $100,000CDN without even getting out of bed. Proof of concept!

This sector beats the dotcom hands down! Why? Well, the number one reason is there are "real" fundamentals here. NO DEBT and a product that has been in demand for 5,000 years! This is real wealth not the phoney "new paradigm" BS that proliferated the dotcom stink which had at its core unscrupulous and fraudulent brokerages and banks who hired analysts like Henry Blodget and Mary Meeker. Why those two are not in jail with Jim Cramer is beyond me. These people were and still are the top salesmen for HB&B. I mean come on the number one rated "stock show" on TV is run by a former Goldman Sachs trader. Unreal ... Pretty soon sperm banks will only allow Goldman Sachs donors! We are at the height of human insanity here, with massive global wars and the whole nine yards. I am amazed at the apathy levels here in America.

12:32:29

*(SP) FITCH REVISES SPAIN OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE FROM STABLE; AFFIRMS AA+ RATING

- Fitch: "The potential for an intensification of volatility and stress in European financial markets if a credible and comprehensive response to the 'Eurozone crisis' is not articulated by the EU Heads of State at their Summit on 24-25 March. "In many respects, Spain has exceeded expectations in terms of fiscal consolidation and structural reform, notably with respect to state pensions and the labour market. However, the Negative Outlook reflects the downside risks to Spain's sovereign credit profile from a weak economic recovery, banking sector restructuring and fiscal consolidation, especially by regional governments"

.11 and hanging tough a second day. 10X vol. again. I have my issues with solar but this little co may bring the cost down...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/XsunX-Signs-Joint-Bu...

regards,
Earl

ALOHA!!

I just found out I can buy stocks on other exchanges, have CROCF, GIX.TO (GXEXF)

When you buy those foreign corp listings on the PK or OTCBB(with an F at the end) you are not buying on a foreign exchange. I would highly recommend you buy actual TSXV or ASX listed companies and not the block shares of US market makers. There is no excuse why any American stock trader has to use those symbols any more. They have been rife with naked shorting and all sorts of other currency and liquidity pitfalls over the years. By the way those stocks are NOT ADRs. An ADR has to be registered with the BNY Mellon. These foreign corps were only useful back when online brokerages did not offer foreign exchange listed companies that you could actually trade on a real foreign exchange.

To get out of these foreign corps I had to find the arbitrage days(high volume, high share price) when I could sell the F corp and buy the TSXV for a price that was either the same as the F corp or lower. Not easy. Then you also have tax implications mixed in(gains/wash).

I suggest not buying "F" listed block shares ... I have not held one in many years now!

Thanks Kaimu. I think Fidelity and I need to have a converstation.
regars,
Earl

Again thanks much Kaimu. I spoke to the international trading desk and here is what I was informed; my fidelity system does not support the .TO or .V or any other foreign symbol therefore they still retain the F at the end but when I put GXI.TO into my order it is converted to GXEXF and the system checks for a better price in the US, if not found (since they can see the Toronto exchange at the same time) it is routed to the Toronto exchange – it the price is above $1 then they will charge 1cent for the trade and convert to Canadian dollars, if less then $1 then they charge ½ cent… My contact completely understood your statement and agreed that this was an issue in the past but their system does not route it to a US market maker. So I repeated everything back to him to make sure I understood – I can pay extra to trade on 12 exchanges or keep what I have and get the same thing – difference being that for my account which does not support .TO… I will see the converted symbol F. when I go to sell my shares I can simply click on the symbol and fill in the normal info to place a sell, I can enter the symbol GXEXF which will show me the price in USD or I can enter GXEXF.TO and get the Canadian price, 3% higher today – either way it’s routed back to the Toronto exchange for execution – and I can see that on my order summary. This keeps my cost down where I don’t have to upgrade my trading system. So this is their work-around to your post.
Best regards,
Earl

Just some more info taken from my Schwab accnt.....

Going Global: Trading Foreign Stocks OTC

John Wightkin
Director of Equity Research Applications, Schwab Center for Financial Research
November 22, 2010

Key points

Trading foreign ordinaries over-the-counter is an increasingly popular way to add international investments to your portfolio.
We'll examine how this market works, its benefits and drawbacks, and how to get started.
Designed for international investors.

Looking to invest in foreign stocks? If so, you're not alone. International investing is becoming more mainstream. As we've discussed previously, investors have come to realize its benefits, including the potential for higher rates of growth and the potential for reducing the risk of your overall portfolio through diversification.

One increasingly popular way to add an international flavor to your portfolio is by buying and selling international stocks (also known as "ordinaries") online through the US over-the-counter (OTC) market .....A number of competing broker-dealers, also called market makers, negotiate directly with each other to price OTC stocks. Market makers earn money via the bid/ask "spread"—buying the stock for less than they sell it, and selling the stock for more than they buy it.

Because of the cumbersome reporting requirements and expense of listing on registered exchanges, the OTC market has become an attractive platform for international companies to offer their securities in the United States....What are the drawbacks of the OTC market?
Cost premiums/wider spreads: Market makers will frequently mark up share prices, relative to the prices on foreign exchanges, to cover the risk they take in maintaining their inventories, as well as to offset foreign-trading and currency fees. Any such premium is reflected in the price you see (the bid/ask quote).

Hope this helps.

Over 200 years the monetary ratio between gold and silver has averaged about 16:1. The physical ratio based on the abundance of elements found in the earth's crust is about 17.5. Close enough.

Gold is mostly hoarded while silver is consumed. Add in the hoarding aspect to the silver supply/demand equation and one can see the explosive possibilities for silver as it takes on a monetary role.

If the ratio reverts to the 200 yr mean, and gold hits $2,000, at 16:1. that's $125 for silver.

$5000 gold / $312 Silver

First we have to get to $50.

Thank you Prodisc; it appears I'm good with what Fidelity had to say. And they said 'we do not route the orders through US market makers'. They will check for a better price here first but that's a rare occurance.
regards,
Earl

I feel like I've abused this board pretty good today. That's what happens when your plant is running like a Rolls Royce.

LN

Good post... we get so focused on preserving our wealth in this cirque du fools we are forced to participate in, we
loose sight of the natural processes that provide for our survival. You're so right... "our portfolios won't mean squat"

Most people just focus on honey bees but the bumble bee is a very important pollinator for a wide range of plants,
farmed and wild species alike. I know from first hand observation in a localized area, that their population has diminished greatly. The bumble be is both smaller and the population has noticeably declined over the last 10-15 years. Similar observations are widespread across the country. Something is wrong.

The FDA just approved a bunch of new Monsanto GMO seeds and attendant pesticide, especially alfalfa. I suspect the GMO process is part of the bee problem. I would suggest bees are contaminated when collecting pollen from GMO plants, which contain an insect toxin (gmo corn). An alfalfa field is a smorgasbord for bees. What's in store for them with Monsanto's new seed?

Ten's of thousands of new acres will be drenched in Round Up. Is anyone testing the water for contamination
from this product. I read some human health problems may be linked to exposure. I believe Monsanto has no
ethics and will do what ever it takes to continue to sell their products, no matter the environmental consequences.

from Wikipedia

"False advertising
In 1996 Monsanto was accused of false and misleading advertising of glyphosate products, prompting a lawsuit by the New York State attorney general.

On Fri Jan 20, 2007, Monsanto was convicted of false advertising of Roundup for presenting Roundup as biodegradable and claiming that it left the soil clean after use. Environmental and consumer rights campaigners brought the case in 2001 on the basis that glyphosate, Roundup's main ingredient, is classed as "dangerous for the environment" and "toxic for aquatic organisms" by the European Union.

Scientific fraud
On two occasions the United States Environmental Protection Agency has caught scientists deliberately falsifying test results at research laboratories hired by Monsanto to study glyphosate. In the first incident involving Industrial Biotest Laboratories (IBT), an EPA reviewer stated after finding "routine falsification of data" that it was "hard to believe the scientific integrity of the studies when they said they took specimens of the uterus from male rabbits". In the second incident of falsifying test results in 1991, the owner of the lab (Craven Labs), and three employees were indicted on 20 felony counts, the owner was sentenced to 5 years in prison and fined 50,000 dollars, the lab was fined 15.5 million dollars and ordered to pay 3.7 million in restitution. Craven laboratories performed studies for 262 pesticide companies, including Monsanto.

Monsanto has stated that the studies have been repeated, and Roundup's EPA certification does not now use any studies from Craven Labs or IBT. Monsanto alleges that the Craven Labs investigation was started by the EPA after a pesticide industry task force discovered irregularities.

Great comments - My novice question to the successful traders is when do you take profits if you believe that Silver continues higher, especially if you're trading futures? When do you add to winning position versus taking some off the table? TIA

DavidV,
Thank you for the heads-up on GTY. I tried to enter at 21.64, missed it, walked away, then against my rule to never chase a stock, I finally got a fill at 21.93. I see the possible (even likely imho)lease renegotiation is a major risk, but keeping position size small-1k, is my way to deal with that for now.

Grasshopper, I asked the same question years past and never got the answer I wanted or expected, because the answer is - a process, and the process is up to you. Here is what I do:
#1 I place my stop loss immediately, usually 2% or less.
#2 Using my prior homework and the likely price movement over my trading time period, usually 30 days or much less. I decide a sell price, always below where I think the price will eventually reach inside my trading time period.
#3 Since I usually scale in and out of positions, I may add to or take profit on portions of a position based upon price and volume movement and other factors. The major factor for me is risk assessment.
#4 I don't trade futures, just stocks, ETFs and options on rare occasions. So, I hope the above is still of use to you.
#5 I take no advice from financial TV/radio. I like to read this board, read articles, other blogs & sites, and makeup my own mind, relying heavily on multi-year charts.
Good luck to you.
John

MoKat -

"Over 200 years the monetary ratio between gold and silver has averaged about 16:1."

I believe it goes back 5,000 years and is 15:1. I've posted this here before and dug it up just for you.

http://tinyurl.com/24o9yxc

Cheers.

Bull Hunter,

As usual I loved the quote — how likely!

Could you please give me the link for the POMO schedule. I have mentioned from time to time to a friend just what is happening and would like to back up my assertions.

Thanks, Grym

So, was the high volume surge in the last 30 minutes a POMO rescue, or are that many people really comfortable holding over the weekend after a mostly down day?

Thanks Earl,

I turned on TV near the close after having been away for a couple hours (-160 something when I left) and was just in time to watch the rising Dow. Music from 2001 movie would have been appropriate. (I could almost see Bernanke at the podium ;-)

Here are some POMO links:

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/display/ind...

The first permanent open market operation (POMO) schedule for 2011 has been released.

Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/economics/11/01/774449/fir...

That one is current until next week.

Fed Releases New POMO Schedule, To Monetize $112 Billion In Bonds And Prop Up Stocks On 18 Out Of 19 Trading Days

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-releases-new-...

Should be be out of the market with everyone else and have our winnings sitting in Citi by the end?

ALOHA!!

it is routed to the Toronto exchange – it the price is above $1 then they will charge 1cent for the trade and convert to Canadian dollars, if less then $1 then they charge ½ cent…

So if Fidelity is converting to Canadian dollars then you would have Canadian dollars in your account when you sell. That is the way it works at IB. If you do not then you have to trust that the market makers are not shaving off percentages on the conversion and you have to trust that they are converting at all.

Okay I guess the PinkSheets moved to Toronto!

I type in GXEXF and it shows PK(PinkSheets). GXEXF.PK ...

I see the volume for GIX.TO is 900,000+ for GXEXF it is a tiny 24,000+. I would prefer to try to buy and sell in volume of 990,000 versus 24,000 and in fact you see the result as the GXEXF is down by 2%+ while GIX.TO is unchanged. The least amount of selling on GXEXF will drive the price down not to mention spreads.

Silver is not the only item that is experiencing a depletion of inventory.. dried food for home storage is also sold out. Mountain House, one of the main producers is sold out of their #10 cans of all varieties. They say it will be like that for months at least. NitroPak, their biggest dealer is also in a similar situation... they do have some MRE's in stock but they are going fast. Other products are on a minimum 120 day back order.

I'd say this is evident of rising fear and falling confidence in the system. People are not buying the bullshit.

I also wonder if those with purchasing power may start buying things they will need in the future to avoid rising prices... both big ticket items, like cars, appliances,etc. and products used monthly. Cotton clothes are due to rise
sharply with cotton so high. Coffee and cocoa at new highs. Anything made with metal headed up.

Is the start of a crack up boom? Marc Faber talked about this last year.

Good call Bill and I still wasn't aggressive enough to capture big gains. Dropped the SLW $40 call and FVI.TO on Wednesday for nice profits and then bought a number of calls on Thursday in CMG, OVTI, BTU and a couple of others - select stocks that looked like they had follow through potential regardless of the indexes.

Didn't panic Friday amateur hour as everything was in the red before these three turned and ran higher, easily covering two other laggards. I cleaned up the account after 10am in order to enjoy the last day of vacation (I think CMG's got potential to run, along with the coal space). Left with the account +5%, returned +13%.

Starting to look too easy, which puts me on guard. Perhaps its just all coming together, I dunno.

Will try to catch more of the silver space before the music stops.

Nice job in PMV.V Kaimu. I left myself at the door this week and missed the party. C'est la vie.

cheers

I just finished the book, "The Next Decade" by George Friedman. A broader consideration of our global interconnectedness which will surely be useful in making investing decisions.

He begins with the premise there is an American Empire whether we like to think of it that way or not. Since the fall of the Soviet Union there is no other single country to balance the economic and military power or the U.S. Whatever we do, or do not do, has some effect on nearly every other country.

Friedman gives an overview of what, in his opinion, US foreign policy should be. His views cover factors which are often ignored in this sound bite era. Geographical considerations, demographics, historical relationships — all come into play and affect commerce, political and military decisions a U.S. President must make.

He posits the idea that only a strong president can manage the empire and maintain the republic in trying times

He credits three presidents with having managed to do this under similar, yet quite different circumstances. To do so Friedman points out that each was able to deal with extreme and unique problems and pacify and/or motivate the American citizenry at the same time.

Those named are Lincoln (saved the republic), FDR (gave the U.S. two ocean control), and Reagan (undermined the Soviets and set the stage for empire).

"Each of them was a profoundly moral man... who was prepared to lie , violate the law, and betray principle in order to achieve those ends." — Friedman

He sees many problems ahead and questions whether we will elect those willing and able to manage the conditions of empire, deal sensibly and practically with a host of conflicting needs, maintain international balances and avoid being drawn into unnecessary and entangling military conflicts.

The actions and consequences — mostly due to presidential choices — will have both short and long term economic and cultural outcomes.

One of the most recent — US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan — has limited our options and created imbalances we are now experiencing. The Iraq/Iran balance is gone leaving Iran a major problem. Our war in Afghanistan has weakened Pakistan internally (They have much in common with Afghanistan.) and upset the Pakistan/India balance.

Interestingly, Friedman claims Europe was happy to give Obama the Nobel prize in anticipation of his no-intervention attitude. After W they were glad to see a US President who would not ask them to do things (Iraq & Afghanistan) they don't want to do. (Perhaps they knew Barack, as a senator, voted "Present" rather than go on record re gun control.)

Today Obama is being criticized for not "taking a stand" on Libya. (Well, he would be criticized by someone either way.) The reality: We have not enough troops to deal with two wars and go play policeman in still another country.

IMO, Obama's best bet would have been to pushed for UN intervention. This would put us on record as opposing this Libyan villain and at the same time show the useless sham of the UN — Gaddafi was on the UN Human Rights Council's advisory committee — REALLY!

If I were to sum up Friedman's view of how to be a successful President of the United States I would say he should look to Lonie Anderson who when on WKRP in Cincinnati said, "I'd really like to help... without getting involved."

I have a positive outlook, would not be starting a little business with my wife if I only thought of doom and gloom – but my head is out of the sand and the rose colored glasses are off – looking at the facts and things that appear to be such. This is required to move on.

Time article Are Americans best days behind us?
"It is now possible to produce more goods and services with fewer and fewer people, to shift work almost anywhere in the world and to do all this at warp speed. That is the world the U.S. now faces. Yet the country seems unready for the kind of radical adaptation it needs. The changes we are currently debating amount to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic."

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,205...

Costa Mesa to lay off nearly half of city workforce; http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2011/03/cost...

good videos from powertradingradio - updated at 6pm every day.
http://www.tradingacademy.com/radio/power-trading-...

Good Call Bill, I traded silver miners on the way up to these levels but not sure now if some steam needs to come out from current prices during the next 2 or 3 wks before it moves up again probably to $40 or more in the next leg up. Thx.

Earl,

Surprise, surprise! I do have an opinion on each of your two main questions. My wife says I have an opinion on everything because I like to argue. (I will not argue with her on that.) I prefer the term debate ;-)

Post 9/11 I was as angry as anyone could be. I had watched the entire outrageous, frightening event live from the first announcement of an "accidental crash". (Taped as it happened and rewatched it all once since.) I was totally in favor of going into Afghanistan to get Osama. When the reports came that Saddam had nuke capability I was not opposed to ridding the world of him. Now I think that was foolish and misguided — even before reading Friedman.

I have a good friend, a retired career Army Lt. Colonel, (two tours in Viet Nam, Airbourne Inf.) His first comment was when I pressed him, "They could have gotten rid of him with far less effort, expense and cost of lives all around." His son, also Army, has done two tours in Iraq and one in Afghanistan so far.

Later I read an account of the build up, including the questionable intel and the actual execution of the invasion of Iraq. (Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq). Poorly planned and under manned from the get-go. My view is that it was a way to establish a major US foothold in the midst of the oil patch. The "embassy" we built is nothing less than a self-contained fortress like the world has never known. We MUST have oil. Our own fault, IMO, but never the less we will literally grind to a halt without foreign oil in a very short time. Still think it was a bad move — just the expense in dollars shows that, but in cost of lives it is sick.

Just my opinion, but I believe George W. Bush was a guy who could be easily manipulated. He could be convinced we needed to get Saddam, that he had WMD and was a real threat to us, and like Lincoln who had severe critics, he needed to remain on the course once it was set and I believe he thought he was on a mission from God. Oil was his business so he needed no convincing on that.

As for Obama: I will admit that I voted for him once as my Illinois senator. Actually, like most elections I was voting against someone I thought was worse, but once elected I soon saw him as having one goal in life... the advancement of Barack Obama.

His Chicago connections and Community Organizer background taught him how to get ahead by using people and government programs to accomplish his goal. He is a master at working the system, telling people what they want to hear, and more than anything — avoiding anything which may ever be used against him. He seems isolated from our opinions and on a course which is US destructive.

It seems to me many of the guys who've set out to elected president, have huge egos. Truman, Eisenhower, Ford are the exceptions in my lifetime. Anyone who is so enamored with the idea of the office is in danger of allowing himself to be guided by others.

Grym

In my opinion this whole recovery has been nothing but smoke and mirrors, it is based on a massive stimulus injected by the government with money that has no value. What is going to happen when QII stops, when Fanny and Freddy explode, the housing market never comes back? When the states start having internal conflict with their employees because of wage cuts and layoffs? We are broke but nothing is being done about it because the banks and wall street boys are comfortable the way things are, unfortunately things are not sustainable and will change with the boys or without them. With a war costing 2.8 billion a week and POMOs of billions of dollars a day, what can possibly happen? QII ends the stock market down, gold and silver down, QIII stock market up, gold and silver to the moon. Who knows what a dysfunctional government is capable of doing?

Hi Grym; thanks for the responses. (This will require a revolution of sorts) & (I don't believe we will ever get back to the lifestyle we once knew as a nation, but that is not all bad. Too much easy living makes people soft and lazy. We are just beginning to see a global redistribution with no end in sight.) All great comments you have. I agree, the distribution will have to occur, it’s not all bad!!!
For my own community here we will have to be very careful; we’re already seeing housing pick back up, a good friend of mine has a Remax realtor franchise. She is seeing more people moving here from California & Indiana to mention a couple states; just as in 1983/1984 they came from Michigan, buying up everything. Back then there was room to expand – I’m so close to the coast there is little room for that now so community management will have to be weighed against the predatory builders who will stop at almost nothing to build the next house.
Thanks for asking – My wife and daughter are opening a children’s clothing store (newborn to 10 years). And it’s kind of cottage – actually this store is in a cottage – in the middle of the historical district of League City, Texas. When we get around to working on the web site (far down on our list of priorities) I’ll put some pictures on it http://www.mooimiboutique.com/ , we call it Mooi Mi Boutique. We’re selling hand made items 80% by Americans, the rest imported from Italy - self employed from all over the US – even men sow and design children’s cloths I had no idea LOL… and you won’t find too much of it in the malls. My wife loves to shop so now she gets to deal with independent clothing designers – our doors aren’t even open (not until the March 8th) and we already have one guy that wants’ to franchise us. We will never sell anything online – we want people to come in – so it’s going to be a bit retro in marketing style.

Took a position at around 9.60 and also sold 9.00 put after Bill wrote about this stock, check this out on seeking alpha http://tinyurl.com/69m2zo3, it seems JASO is also a stock to monitor. Will wait to hear from Bill on JASO.

Come on Les, every body knows that Bill is our main source for trading insight and resources on this blog and I respect him a lot. I just meant to ask you both about SLW in particular because you are, more than anyone else on this board, have written a lot about your previous moves trading this particular stock on the way up and down following purely TA and Bill has talked about it before from a fundamental point view. That was my reason really for asking you both at the same time, didn’t mean to offend anyone, and I would be glad if either of you or both of you replied. In addition, I know Bill is quite busy and he may not be able to respond to every body's question or comment here. Anyway, thanks for your reply, let’s see what the next week brings. Lots of actions in the Middle East and North Africa this weekend and this kind of unrest and search for democracy and change may last for many months or even yrs so I would say to every one here, get used to it.

One thing I fail to grasp at this moment and I continue to be thankful to Bill for is putting pieces of the puzzle together sector by sector. Crude is up and so the Canadian tar sand producers benefit is one example. (was holidaying with a Canadian lawyer who negotiated for gas consumers across Canada and the US, but that's another story).

So I was curious to see big picture charts of the coal space and solar stocks given the potential of crude here to go ballistic. The attached charts give an idea what I'm seeing. I should point out to analyst65 and others that it doesn't really mean much because TA is such a subjective take of price and volume action. If everyone saw the chart the same way there wouldn't be a market would there! Something to think about when you're looking at my charts and saying "yeh that's a sure thing I can bet the farm on". Anyway, see attached energy charts.

I appreciate Bill's reasoning - and the charts to back it up - that stocks can tank when oil prices go ballistic. But trying to place silver and gold in this equity mix led me to look at the futures in a big time frame again - note that all charts are week on week. Something I recall from one of Armstrong's publications suggest to me that silver has gone from normal trading and its pace is now quickening (I can't remember the exact term, I'll look up Armstrong's work again for correct terminology). Anyway, turning into an eventual parabolic spike is my thought. For how many weeks or potentially months it can go for I have no idea.

But have a look at the gold weekly chart. This definitely has the look of a price that is about to rip higher big time, if silver continues leading the way. Again, not something to bet the farm on, but certainly something to be placing oneself in the path of. Crude speaks for itself, the potential of what could be. One must simply wait to execute accordingly.

Bernanke looking to shoot oil, stocks and two smoking precious metal barrels. "When you dance with the devil, you wait for the music to stop; know what I mean?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoZ2kTlwKTk

Peggy Noonan (WSJ) points out the basic conflicts of interest in public unions.

"Public unions have numbers and money, and politicians need both. And politicians fear strikes because the public hates them. When governors negotiate with unions, it's not collective bargaining, it's more like collusion. Someone said last week the taxpayers aren't at the table. The taxpayers aren't even in the room."

"The very force of the math has the heartening effect of squeezing ideology right out of the story. It doesn't matter if you're a liberal or a conservative, it's all about the numbers, and numbers are sobering things."

See: "Public Unions Get Too 'Friendly'"

http://tiny.cc/90j7l

Bill . Thank You for your Week In Review ! Bob .

For the second time in a month I've been handcuffed and thrown in a psych ward at Fort Hamilton hospital for talking about this stuff. So don't try and figure out government conspiracies. How many times does it take to go crazy after continuously being called crazy? It's like the tootsie pop question. I have more to tell but will have to wait. Doing this to document a timeline from my phone. Will explain how Team America was talking about Cairo and Matt Damons recent films in 2004. Very interesting stuff. Brought me nothing but trouble though.

Anyone who wants an update on SLW, go to FinancialSense.com.

Jim Puplava has an interview with the SLW CEO on this weeks Newshour. He discusses their successful business model and future outlook.

He paints a rosy picture.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-eas...

Thanks very much for this list Bill, I find it difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff with these miners and this is a great resource you have offered for review.

ps On another front here is a great discussion about t.a. and the changes it has met recently.Click the mp3 link to listen,

http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-news...

Another stock that is garnering a ton of attention is Alexco Resources. They are primarily located in the Yukon and are mining tons of silver. Apparently they are reworking abandoned claims and finding so much silver, resource updates are blowing away estimates. They are establishing lots of free cash flow. If you get a chance from your busy schedule at PDAC, take a look. I just established an initial position last week. The other company with lots of interest is Endeavor Mining. I haven't established a position with it yet but probably will in time.

With China's latest Noble Peace Prize winner still safely locked up , the leaders of ' The Middle Kingdom ' are taking no chances . I wonder how nervous are they . Bob . http://tinyurl.com/4qugdk7

from yahoo http://www.miningweekly.com/article/ecuador-expect...

Earl,
I like to use energy density http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density to compare fuels. But in this case used specific energy, where (1MJ ~ 0.28KWh)
53.6 MJ/Kg Natural Gas
46.4 MJ/Kg Gasoline(petrol)

While it is a complicated subject. Wikipedia figures indicate 1Kg of natural gas contains 15.52% more energy than 1Kg of gasoline. Of course as a starter the energy to compress the NG is ignored, as is handling, storage and distribution costs, all of which level the playing field considerably.

The Honda GX is the musical muse to the ears of my friend T-Bone Pickens.

The BTU price of nat gas vs. oil/gasoline is as cheap as I've ever known. The Honda GX is the perfect city/commuting car. What it lacks in range and quick fill is more than overcome by operating costs. The cost of the Phill system in mass production will no doubt decline by a factor or 5.

Pickens is no fool. His idea of converting the long haul trucking fleet to Nat gas makes perfect sense. Why would Con Freight or any other trucking company complain about the esthetics of design of a class 8 behemoth when they could save at least 50% or more on fuel costs! All it would take to encourage our smoggy diesel fleet to convert would be simple tax incentives which as we all know can be done with a wave of the magic wand which resides in the lead lined clothes closet of the Lincoln bedroom...Again, leadership lacking.

While I'm astride my high horse (a dappled gray hayburner with sad eyes but good loins), let me also comment on the accounting practices of BIG OIL that uses BTU equivilents to value gas into barrels of oil. Nonsense, and a POX on the accounting of the norms and standards of our old nemesis, the one and only FASB who also gave us the other Fairy Tale of #157, better known as the "Bankers and Brokers relief act" which implies that 'we will value no post crash trash until the FED either buys it All or the dollar is devalued at least 70% against other central banks who have the same IDEA!!' The silent comic opera of our 'times' defies even the absurd best of Harpo Marx,,,,,,,,

I sit here astonished that the 'Greens' continue to support 'alternative' solutions like solar, wind and other schemes that make NO economic sense. Corn or even sugar ethanol is another affront to my sense of logic. Where is the support for one of the cleanest burning less polluting energy sources in the galaxy and by the way, the U.S. has several hundred years of the stuff!

To my mind, logic when applied to economics no longer works in a democracy. The moneybag aristocracy works the votes on both sides to ensure that the Demos chooses between tweddle dee and tweddle dum, and the outcome is more money in their banks pockets. It's not even a clever scheme but one so simple that even our congress critters ascribe to for the sake of power, hence wealth after (the Bribe) has been voted on. CF; Bill and Hillary Clinton from cattle futures to a $60,000,000 net worth expo facto.

I don't really give a damn about the Clintons. They stoled it fair and square. If no one objects then, I won't.

I guess my 'problem' is with our democracy, that horrid fate of mutual death. A smart man once equated democracy to socialism and socialism to slavery. Lord Acton was not a flippant man and whose words should not be dismissed concerning federalism and the way the world works...

ALOHA!!

They stoled it fair and square.

It depends on what definition of "it" ... "it is"!