CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
[7:00am ET] Good morning.
The equity market is, I believe, looking to break out of its malaise this morning and move to a higher level. Call it a sense I have.
My first clue is the strengthening prices of the eight European banks I monitor early in the morning – two from Germany, two from Italy, three from France, and one from Denmark. Earlier today, while the German and French bourses were strong, these banks were almost all in the red; but at 7am ET I felt they were coming around.
For the German, French and UK equity markets, note the downtrend lines from the peak on Monday morning. Prices appear to be ready to break that downtrend, led by France.
Germany
UK
France
Now look at the same perspective for Silver prices this week. Again, there appears to be momentum building.
That’s my take, anyway.
Yesterday’s action at the PDAC 2011 in Toronto was probably the busiest I have ever seen it.
Was the party that Rob McEwen put on last night a good one? He packed the Concert Hall at the Royal York and kept the crowd happy with a lengthy performance by Canadian rock legend Tom Cochrane and band. I got to spend some time with him and Ian Ball, and of course had Kitco take the photo of Ian and I holding the 400 ounce Gold bar, which I will post as soon as I get it.
At the same time, I will post some photos of the drill core of a company I will not name until after I meet them at the end of today’s session.
For the Cara Conference in Whistler, I am still waiting for my daughter Stefanie to give me a hotel contract to sign, but the dates are set as October 1 to 3 – Saturday, Sunday and Monday. From my conversations this week, I think we are going to be joined by Presidents and CEO’s of Silvercorp, PMI Gold, Geologix and Silver Wheaton. These were the only ones I asked so far and they all accepted if their schedule allows. I know we are going to have the best conference yet.
As for trading these stocks, I happened to sell a huge position in Silver Wheaton (SLW) at the peak ($46.30) on Monday and buy it back near the cycle low on Tuesday ($43.23) – all the time I was at the PDAC. As the selling price on Monday morning is above the high print on the 10-minute bar and just above the low print on Tuesday morning, that was my best trade of the year. Hopefully we will have more of those.
Have a great day. I plan to be home early and get some rest.
Btw, this annual PDAC experience has been a life-changing experience for many of you. Ask Jock and some of the others who might care to comment.
Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.
| Symbol | Name | Last Trade | Change | Related Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^ATX | ATX | 2,835.55 |
 10.98 (0.39%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^BFX | BEL-20 | 2,684.33 |
1.10 (0.04%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FCHI | CAC 40 | 4,026.90 |
10.99 (0.27%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^GDAXI | DAX | 7,211.84 |
47.09 (0.66%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^AEX | AEX General | 368.34 |
1.96 (0.53%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^OSEAX | OSE All Share | 499.25 |
 1.13 (0.23%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SMSI | Madrid General | N/A | 0.00 (0.00%) | Chart, More |
| ^OMXSPI | Stockholm General | 363.31 |
3.67 (1.02%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SSMI | Swiss Market | 6,521.10 |
9.89 (0.15%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FTSE | FTSE 100 | 5,970.15 |
4.61 (0.08%) |
Components, Chart, More |
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL
The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.
Enjoy your day.
Cara on Trends & Cycles
Vad's Catch of the Day
Kaimu's Sound Money
CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Good evening. Patrick here.
Let’s keep it short and sweet. The stock market is compressing into a narrower and narrower range; this type of coiling action usually precedes a very large high momentum directional move. The move could be an advancing or declining wave, with the initial move often a head fake to hook itchy trigger fingered breakout traders.
Patience is the key – the pattern needs to develop as the forces of good and evil battle it out. The price action today was as balanced as possible; the highest volume node on the S&P e-mini was at 1320, the same price the future closed at yesterday while the “value area” (in market profile terms the area containing 70% of the daily volume) evenly dispersed one-and-one-half points on either side of 1320.
The S&P also has carved out back-to-back inside days within the 1295-1330 box as the market rests, building enough energy to sustain a large move. Human nature being what it is we are hard-wired to predict a move before it unfolds to satisfy our egos, forget about being right and just concentrate on seeing the move unfold in real time and have the discipline to act at the appropriate time.
Adventuresome types anticipating a large move might look to buy option strangles or straddles on individual stocks to profit if prices move substantially in either direction. The risk of course is that the move is smaller than expected, or the stock move doesn’t happen soon enough. If the stock (or market if you are playing an index) remains mired in a tight range time premium decay will erode the value of your options, so homework and vigilance is required.
Diamonds of the Day (relatively speaking):
• JC Penny (JCP+4.76%)
• Yahoo (YHOO+4.18%)
• Kohls (KSS+3.76%)
• International Business Machines (IBM+3.43%)
• Starbucks (SBUX+1.59%)
Dogs of the Day:
• Finisar (FNSR-38.54%)
• JDS Uniphase (JDSU-16.71%)
• Altera (ALTR-7.07%)
• Lam Research (LRCX-6.55%)
• Cliff’s Natural Resources (CLF-5.32%)
• Xilinx (XLNX-5.54%)
• KLA- Tencor (KLAC-4.65%)
A little something for both Bulls and Bears today – let’s see what tomorrow brings.
Have a great evening.
Comments
Econoday Today
Cara 100 Ratings Changes For POMO Wednesday
Good morning.
5-7 Billion Dollar POMO Injection Today.
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7:00 - MBA Mortgage Apps (+15.5%)
10:00 - Wholesale Inventories
10:30 - Crude Inventories
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IBM - PT Lifted from $175 to $185 @ Collins Stewart. Buy
POT - Potash downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup citing valuations and a lack of near-term catalysts. The firm dropped its price target for Potash to $60 from $67.
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"Jessica Simpson's various product lines are expected to gross over a billion dollars this year. How embarrassing is this for President Obama, that Jessica Simpson has a better business plan than he does?" - Jay Leno
Interesting the lack of mention in Western Media of this...
Les,
Chinese sailing in the Mediterranean may be a psychological shocker like the Doolittle Tokyo raid, but I expect Chinese encroachment to be in the manufacturing/sales arena, not naval.
From what I've been reading their navy is still behind that of Japan. If we have any need to fear China militarily, I would say the greatest danger lies in someone triggering a false alarm (possibly the US) in order to "cure" political and economic issues.
The US currently has 12 Super Carriers — nuclear powered, go anywhere ships. The Chinese building subs is the most threatening militarily now.
China appears to have made great strides and we're hearing the kind of talk from the 1980s when Japan was buying Pebble Beach, etc. But only a very small percentage of their 1.3B people have what we could consider an acceptable income. The masses still need pacification or domination to void an internal combustion.
P.S. The lack of coverage is understandable since Charlie Sheen's (The 1/2 man) behavior is soooo much more important around here ;-)
Re: Interesting the lack of mention in Western Media of this...
Serendipitous; I just read - Roubini's Global Economics - that the Chinese spend some $92bn on internal security and less than that on external. They appear to have a thorough grip on the population. However the party is racked w/ corruption while disparities are growing ever larger w/ those at the bottom getting the shaft (my words).
The population doesn't have a large youth presence as does the middle east and elsewhere. In other words young people are the ones who take to the barricades.
Re: Interesting the lack of mention in Western Media of this...
QLewton,
You may also find this article a Mish's site interesting.
Bloodstained Property Map and Trampled Rights; China's Population: 1.3 Billion; Construction Underway: 43 Billion Square Feet
http://tiny.cc/gphmb
and a link at the article:
"Amazing Satellite Images Of The Ghost Cities Of China"
"There’s city after city full of empty streets and vast government buildings, some in the most inhospitable locations. It is the modern equivalent of building pyramids. With 20 new cities being built every year, we hope to be able to expand our list going forward."
-------
As you say, "However the party is racked w/ corruption while disparities are growing ever larger w/ those at the bottom getting the shaft (my words)."
Seems familiar. Much like our current policies ;-(
Grym
As I head out to PDAC
...it appears to be tougher sledding in London for most stocks since I wrote this morning's blog. The big miners are down about -0.5% today, and not showing any tangible strength at this point, unlike the gold and silver futures. This will be an interesting session as traders have to decide whether or not to submit higher bids.
Libya again...
Oil Storage Tanks At Libya's Ras Lanuf Terminal Said Bombed -Reuters
Crude storage tank at Libya's Es Sider hit in aerial bombardment by pro-Qadhafi forces against rebels controlling the port: al-Jazeera
Cara Conference
Bill, I'm wondering if the presentations that will be made at Whistler could be packaged in some way or put together in a document or video taped and made available to those of us that cannot attend. I would love to attend the conference but am unable to and would still love to learn from some of the gurus there.
This applies to any presentations that might be available from previous year Cara Conferences as well.
Regards,
Tyler
RBA Governor: Australia Must Manage Terms Of Trade, Mining Boom
Australia's central bank restoked debate Wednesday on how to best capitalize on the surging profits and revenue of Rio Tinto PLC (RIO), BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) and the country's other miners who are capitalizing on a once-in-a-century commodities boom.
Speaking to a business forum in London, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said Australian leaders must do more to ensure the benefits of an ongoing mining boom aren't squandered. As rising commodities prices and surging demand from China, India and other Asian countries continues for iron ore and other Australian resources, the country is in a unique position to benefit, said Stevens.
The comments come less than a month after Rio Tinto and BHP posted combined annual profits of more than US$24 billion.
"We have to take the opportunity to capitalize effectively on some very powerful trends in the global economy to which we are, almost uniquely, positively exposed," said Stevens.
The impact of the mining boom has the RBA forecasting growth of 4% or more for each of the next three years after already hiking rates seven times since October 2009.
Managing that boom, however, will be difficult over the long term, said Stevens, who called on a national discussion to stretch the resources from the boom and manage all of the risks rising demand will bring. In the most recent past, the benefits of a prior surge in mining revenue were returned to Australians through tax cuts, in a move that drove core inflation above 4%.
Australia's government had proposed a tough tax on the mining sector last year, though a pushback from that industry killed the tax and partly led to the ouster of then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. His predecessor, Julia Gillard, has proposed a less stringent tax on the mining sector.
Still, Stevens added the impact of a rising currency--the Australian dollar is up more than 20% since the middle of last year--as well as an increased household savings rate is working in the central bank's favor.
Stevens noted Australia's average terms of trade are "by far" at their highest level in more than a century, with an increase in resource investment already underway and expected to pick up further.
The comments on the potential problems associated with the capital inflows come after Stevens has already put his support behind some form of stability fund recently. Several industry executives locally have put their support behind a sovereign wealth fund to ensure Australia invests a windfall from the mining boom for future generations.
More broadly, Asian inflationary issues, due partly to higher commodity prices, have been a hot topic in markets of late and one factor behind a series of interest rate hikes across Asia in recent months. Stevens noted the rise in prices of food, energy and minerals in Asia are all driven by a shift in demand that will continue in the long term.
Stevens said the main factor behind the surge in prices is rapid economic growth in Asia, and not an increase in speculative investors.
"Speculators can't hold up prices over the long run. These big changes, which appear to be rather long-running, surely are mainly a result of powerful, and rather durable, fundamental forces," said Stevens.
Rich get richer
ScotTrade told me this morning they are waiting for a symbol to be set up to trade CAP and it has a $1.02 opening price. I think it be rich for my blood if everyone else got in for 35 cents with warrants for 50 cents.
RBY
Cheapy, do you have a link to the Brent Cook "coup de grace"? I would like to see what he has to say about RBY.. is the company in such bad position because of the amendment?
Re: Interesting the lack of mention in Western Media of this...
Hi Grym, totally true comment! from last nights discussion...
(But only a very small percentage of their 1.3B people have what we could consider an acceptable income. The masses still need pacification or domination to void an internal combustion.)
China has some major worrisome issues, clean water being one, their gold mining alone is polluting their river resources.
Best regards
Earl
Nice profit Kaimu on CAP.V
Is their sufficient volume to move half of your holdings for a disgustingly good profit on the 1st day?
No way am I biting at this price.
Re: RBY
Not a specific link.
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip429308
That is the first of a whole bunch of segments. The problem is in my mind, that he is the "sell at the bottom" guy, making his call a month too late, unless the news is terrible in the end.
I bought yesterday in the panic, but I have a habit of taking risks. I am of the belief that RBY really will get at least 4 mm cheap oz from F2, and that is enough to justify a $7 share price. I guess it now depends on where the specialists and shorts decide they need to cover.
Re: RBY
Go to BNN website...click video tab....search for Brent Cook...i think it was in either part two or three of the video
McEwen party
First time I attended and it was beyond my expectations. I encourage anyone going to PDAC 2012 to check this event out.
Bill, it was pleasure to meet you. Looking forward to Whistler conference.
Energy Density and Investment
During the past few weeks there have been contributors discussing energy density as an measure of overall efficiency of Natural Gas and other sources. This is a very objective way to quantity a discussion of energy and just today, came across one of the best discussions currently available on this subject.
Do check out Jim Puplava's site and listen to Prof. Vaclav Smil. Then turn to his site: www.vaclavsmil.com/publications/ and review his "Power Density Primer, Parts I-V." This is a pdf file with the energy density numbers used to compare the overall value of a number of fuels.
My take-away on the interview and the publication is that Diesel Automobiles make the most sense; electric cars do not. With regard to power plants, Natural Gas makes the most sense; windmills and solar panels do not.
If I were looking for new places to make an investment, I would consider these conclusions first. Trading may lead to a different idea-of-the-day that may take advantage of mis-information, political correctness, of watching where the money is going. For the long run, stick to Diesel Cars and Gas Fired Power Plants.
Re: RBY
end of part three and not worth the time to watch. The info is misleading. He fails to give the company's position in this matter, and that is unfair if he planned to slam them. Saying they are nice people was false praise. I will have more to say on this later. For now I have no position in the stock. I have told you why. After the company files an amended report to the exchange, we will all get to examine the data and make a fresh decision.
I am growing increasingly impatient with the media these days. They are bringing in gunslingers who fire away at people and companies in order to sell their newsletters or consulting services. If they happen to look good, and sound good, while on camera, and are controversial, they are given more air-time. I implore the regulators to stop this nonsense.
I strongly believe that the only people who ought to be permitted by regulation to opine in the mass media about securities held by the public should be registered professionals. As it is, anybody with a six-gun can come in blazing, and it makes me sick. Look at Seeking Alpha today with something like 6,000 contributors. The majority of these people are not licensed professionals and they certainly are not reporters or journalists. I don't give a whit whether or not they look good and sound good.
The medium is the message. If the messenger is not licensed, or has no media career at stake, then I urge you to tune them out.
I'll now visit with Rubicon management and ask for an update.
Cara 100 Update
IBM - PT Lifted from $165 to $176 @ RBC. Sector Perform
Re: Interesting the lack of mention in Western Media of this...
Earl,
A printing salesman who I've known for over thirty years has been acting as a link between his US customers and printing plants in China for nearly a decade. He has told me the big cities (the only place he goes) have terrible air quality and with my asthma I should not consider even visiting there.
I saw your ref to coal. Last I read they are very heavily into coal and as recently as ten years ago were using many of our old steam locomotives in some areas.
Grym
REXX - Toby
it's looking like 11.80 is a settlement area - not a lot of sellers here nore are there many buyers - just pooped out I think LOL.
I'm still trying to come up with some additional info but FD - 300 @ 12.25 & 300 @ 11.80
regards,
Earl
update; I believe it's the Gas component of REXX that has been hurting it lately - http://www.rexenergy.com/core_operating_areas.htm
LEI has broken the $4 mark - will wait for the $3.20 range and take another look.
Re: Mr Mortgage assesses the road ahead for housing
Ross (Ilya) -
From yesterday's thread:
"Top end houses are location specific and trade on replacement cost. If I owned a McMansion in Vegas or other formerly 'hot' areas, I would be quaking in my boots...Not so in Aspen."
All property is location specific and that's absolutely not true regarding replacement cost. Examples are endless. Actor Nick Cage thought that replacement cost equaled market value and filed for bankruptcy last year, if I recall, because he'd gotten into the habit of flipping mega homes after extensive renovation.
"Big money protects itself from the vagaries of even the folly of their own governments. Big money is not stupid."
Tell that to Bernie Madoff who rots in a cell for eternity and whose son hung himself over his misdeeds. Brilliant.
"Big money also controls the commercial real estate markets. Big money LOVES uncle Bennie. His ZIRP policy has aided an interest rate twist by forcing cap rates to decline by more than 60%... I LOVE THIS GUY!!! The more he monitizes, the richer I become!"
The Q4 2010 PriceWaterhouse survey (subscription only) shows national net lease market cap rates averaged 8.69%, down 19 basis points from the previous quarter and down 25 basis points from the previous year. That's less than a 3% decline, not 60%, from a year ago. If you think a typical 10% cap is now 4%, you're sadly mistaken.
"You do not need gold when you can increase rents and pay back principle with depreciated dollars."
Nice theory but increased rents require the following:
Office Demand = Service Sector Jobs Growth
Retail Demand = Effective Buying Income
Housing Demand = Household Growth
I'd like to know what property type you own that shows a 60% cap rate collapse and enough demand to support increased rents.
I admire your enthusiasm though.
Cheers.
Re: Energy Density and Investment
Pete Higgins -
Spot on. Diesel uses a very high combustion ratio (20:1) and burns very clean with modern diesel fuel. Only issue is that you can't refine more than 1/3 of a barrel of oil into diesel. The key to the excessive oil consumption in the U.S. is to train the consumer to be economical. Think of the reduction in oil consumption if all those commuters rode a train to work or drove an efficient vehicle and carpooled. We'll have the GM Suburban drone's attention when oil hits $200 barrel ... next week.
Cheers.
Re: Mr Mortgage assesses the road ahead for housing
Interesting debate! Arguably shows the risk of trying to generalize - which we all do to try and summarize the amount of information and data! For instance, my generalization on the subject is that there are real estate related opportunities out there, but they're not very liquid, so it doesn't suit me.
Re: Energy Density and Investment
Hi Pete - thank you for the link! I've spent countless hours getting no where. I used to watch energy subject classes posted by MIT and take notes... I like your conclusions and will have to add Coal (#1) and Nuclear (#2) make the most sense for core electrical production, Nuclear should be number 1 but really need to work on long term storage and next generation reaction (desalination included) - we have many Calpine plants here in Houston using NG for peak power and somewhat frequency regulation service. You can't hardly find a Diesel anything and that's sad, Volvo or Volkswagon - a new one coming out of India one of these days but that's about it. But for using an internal combustion engine Diesel is pretty much tops in 'useable' energy density!
Thanks again for the link and I'll explore that tonight.
regards,
Earl
Copper approaching $4.25 (May contract)
Just thought I'd mention it.
AAPL
Anyone see any news on AAPL?
Miners bouncing into London close
Volume picked up this afternoon. BHP trading ex-div.
Re: AAPL
As Bill has said many a time, put the top ten weighted non-financial stocks of the NASDAQ I think it is and watch them like a hawk. You'd see that they're mostly red this am.
I had to choose to short into a bear trap on AMZN this morning and was severely punished for it. It went and turned green.
I remain short in FCX with a couple of puts opened this morning.
Bearish divergences in MACD in the hourly time frame for silver miners is being played out in SLW this morning. A pullback coming I hope.
MY up, MY down
MY only alt energy play.
Youcef Yousfi here in houston is speaking on CNBC right now - says there is no physical shortage of oil in the market and they will increase production if there is a demand increase.
He's repeated a few times there is no physical sortage of oil!!!
I personally don't believe the day of rage in Saudi Arabia will do that much but one never knows. I think the threat of it is overblown because of the Bahrain updates http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110309/wl_nm/us_bahra...
Added; so the news is not all bad and that's going to signal for the market to sell down - makes stupid sense we've been dealing with all along...
Re: AAPL
Les,
Copper to $4.00?
Re: AAPL
I was going to buy the dip in either AAPL or AMZN this am for a trade. I picked the wrong one. I don't see any news on why AAPL is getting a beat down. Every rally attempt is getting hammered.
Copper fundamentals
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Copper futures on Wednesday traded at their lowest in 11 weeks as investors worried about cooling demand from China. Copper for May delivery retreated 14 cents, or 3.4%, to $4.19 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. A close around these levels would be copper's lowest since Dec. 20, when it closed at $4.21 a pound. "Anecdotal" reports of weak Chinese physical buying, as well as growing inventories at the London Metal Exchange "will keep a cap on the upside," analysts at Barclays Capital said in a note to clients Wednesday.
Re: Copper approaching $4.25 (May contract)
I closely follow copper as I'm shorting FCX/TCK/JJC for some time now. It's crashing hard today. Metal with PhD in economics is trying to tell us something?
Re: Copper fundamentals
My personal take is too much commodities speculation. Has to revert to normal. Especially if dollar rebounds some.
Re: Copper approaching $4.25 (May contract)
Yes, Doctor Copper is at it again. Not just a knee-jerk reaction to higher oil prices, but something more.
Re: Mr Mortgage assesses the road ahead for housing
manx928 -
"For instance, my generalization on the subject is that there are real estate related opportunities out there, but they're not very liquid, so it doesn't suit me."
That's a solid generalization. The three great forms of investment are equities (including commodities), debt, and real estate as illustrated through millennia. The age old limitation of real estate relative to the others is its illiquidity and that is a constant regardless the condition of the markets. As for r.e. related opportunities, one must wait for the horrifically overleveraged condition to clear and hope property rights are not further eroded (See recorded mortgage debate) to experience a positive ROT and that, according to master technical guru Martin Armstrong, should take over 20 years. It's just too early as the deflation in r.e. pricing is yet to come.
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/A-Forecast-Fo...
The only savvy r.e. deals right now are bank insiders purchasing debt of quality properties cherry picked out of the bank REO portfolio using business lines of credit (no increase in bank leverage) and waiting for the mortgagor (borrower) to default so that they can take title on the uber cheap and that's mostly picked clean now.
I'd say the only opportunity for the little guy is to lock in a low interest rate on his primary residence with no balloon and allow the Ben Bernanke to melt away that debt along side his buying power and bid like a fief for a wage increase to pay for his runaway food/energy/healthcare expenses.
Cheers.
Re: Energy Density and Investment
While small diesel cars with manual transmission is the best choice for Hwy driving, gas hybrids with atkinson cycle engine beats them in city cycle hands down (I get 50-70 MPG in city driving in my Prius, depending on temp, traffic, speeds, ect).
Rubicon update
Following the remarks of a guest commentator on BNN, the company management told me they stand behind their filings, but have been advised by counsel to not speak on the issue until after they deliver the next report to the regulators. I was told that this morning they had at least three extremely knowledgeable professionals who are experts in the Red Lake geology and with the company reports as well voice their support for the company.
I asked for the latest professional research from the bank analysts who cover the company so that I could highlight their review -- pro and con -- in a subsequent blog. Those reports will be sent to me, and I will do my homework quickly. As a trader, I have no bias one way or the other at the moment as I have no position in the stock.
I am pissed over this issue because the people in this industry are hard-working professionals who spend far too much time away from family and friends while at work in some of the most hostile places on earth to be exposed to nonsense like I have watched on TV and even in this blog, and in chatrooms. The shareholders of these junior resource companies are risk-takers of the highest order. Real money is on the line here -- possibly retirement savings money.
Slamming a company based on opinions and without proof, in a one-sided self-promotional forum, is completely and utterly offensive to me. Regulators have to wake up and do the right thing. BNN for its part ought to be telling the audience when these issues crop up that they intend to hear from other guests, professionals, who may take opposite views so that the public is given all sides of contentious issues.
Whether people in the rest of the world realize this or not, it is a fact that the resources venture market is the crown jewel of Canada's economy, and its integrity must be protected. This issue needs to be discussed in the parliaments in Ottawa and across the country.
Look at the markets
It's a great day to have some cash available.
My pick ADI.V looking real green without me. Should have reloaded at $1.30
Thinking maybe a good day to buy GRR, GIX, ECX, and maybe POT.
Don't know who Brent Cook is but if 1/1000 rings true, it is wise to tread cautiously amongst the juniors. Re CAP, they've got 200sq km of dense tropical bush. Lots of work to do. To me, they haven't earned a $100m mcap yet.
Tech stocks getting killed, even cheaper than when I sold out a couple of days ago. Great day to have some cash to invest.
Re: Copper fundamentals
Jack Black,
I agree. However, the high oil price is probably contributing to the dollar's woes right now as producer states have more petrodollars to convert into euros.
Jock
Jock, if you are around, the community would love to hear what you learned and what are your thoughts after PDAC
CAP.V - Castle Peak
It looks like there are only 4.5 million shares outstanding, and so far only 320000 shares have traded today. I avoid IPO's, especially for juniors - the chances of picking this up cheaper in a few weeks/months are almost certain in my opinion.
dollar gave away some profits
but the intraday chart is very constructive today.
FD: opened a small position in UUP calls. Still have a position in YCS.
Re: Rubicon update
Thanks both for the update as well as for voicing what I see as an honest appraisal of what the newsletter and TV industries seem to be doing.
I still believe in Rubicon regardless of their banter, but it is very difficult mentally to see it beat down so hard over words.
I still think the true lesson here is to just sell your shares too early when there is any good news that gets TV exposure, and whine over the missed gains instead of crying over losses.
CERA on Wednesday: Shifting to a gas focus
http://bit.ly/fGT7A7
Re: Energy Density and Investment
Jack, you are absolutely correct with the driving you describe. I coached girls softball for years when my kids were young - with travel and all the gear every weekend we used a Chevy Suburban with dual AC.
regards,
Earl
Re: CERA on Wednesday: Shifting to a gas focus
Interesting thing about NatGas is while there is a record speculation in crude oil, there is a corresponding record shorting of natgas. When the crude oil bursts, I suspect gas will spike. Too bad my UNG was stopped out.
Regime Gridlock
Hi All - Another "kick the can down the road" moment here to assuage the far left leaners in the party of power: The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has told Dominion and Luminant that their licence applications to build at North Anna and Comanche Peak will be delayed by some 18 months after changes in the design of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' Advanced Pressurized Water Reactor. This is quite similar to restrictions in place to delay Gulf drilling activities, and part & parcel of the media frenzy over well completion fracing methods in use nationwide... all part of the Regime's grand plan to forestall progress. Happy Trading
Re: CAP.V - Castle Peak
I went to their web and their capital structure shows 61m shares fully diluted.
Utilities
Boring old utilities continuing to show strength today - XLU:SPY looks bottomy
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLU:SPY&p=D&b=5&g...
Re: CAP.V - Castle Peak
More info on the share offering/ name change from Critical Capital Corporation:
http://tinyurl.com/4z48ta3
Re: CERA on Wednesday: Shifting to a gas focus
I don't place much confidence in CERA studies.
Here's a recent detailed study on shale gas prepared for the Alaska DOG (Division of Oil & Gas). Note that the shale gas plays do not have sufficient history for anyone to do accurate projections on expected ultimate recovery. Disposal of used frac water and additives remains the greatest environmental risk.
http://www.dog.dnr.state.ak.us/oil/agia/newsroom/P...
PDAC wrap-up
I was far too busy this year gaining info for my trading, and often I had to stop everything to do some trading, but if I am up to it, in the WIR on Sunday, I will discuss the stocks that interest me most of the companies I met here.
This was an overwhelming convention and trade show. There were 27,200 attendees from 120 countries. In fact there were official delegations from 50 or more countries. Among the attendees were about 1,000 students and 250+ aboriginal peoples.
The larger South Building of the Metro Toronto Convention Centre was really not big enough to handle the event, with 350 trade show and 650 investors show exhibitors, so there are discussions underway to include the North Building in future conventions.
http://www.mtccc.com/imapdata/mtcc.html
http://www.mtccc.com/experiencemtcc/ourFacilities.cfm
This is the Super Bowl event for miners, the biggest show of its kind in the world. The PDAC organizers figure at least $45 million was generated in four days for the Toronto, Ontario and Canadian economies.
The metals and mining cycle is likely to grow for several years yet. It will not be long, I figure, before Toronto welcomes 50,000 or more attendees to PDAC. If you are thinking of coming next year, why not join me, learn a tonne, and have some fun.
Re: CERA on Wednesday: Shifting to a gas focus
Jack, don't need to suspect - when the number of dry gas wells go down (which is happening slowly) the price should rise but I'd not expect it to jump! http://www.eia.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_public...
The number of rigs drilling for natural gas, as reported by Baker Hughes Inc., increased from a low of 665 in July 2009 to 973 in April 2010. The natural gas rig count stayed relatively unchanged from April through October 2010. However, since October 2010 the rig count has fallen, dropping to 906 rigs as of February 25. The large price difference between petroleum liquids and natural gas on an energy-equivalent basis contributes to an expected shift towards drilling for liquids rather than for dry gas.
I just heard someone on CNBC using figures taken straight out of the EIA report. then they mentioned diversity of new power units coming on line, that makes sense from a strategic perspective; if and when they do come on line... I like Nuclear but it has its issues too. I've used this same information to trade UNG before only to get hit by contango or just sector churning, the primary driver of my losses. Bill talks much in his WIR about sector rotation study - I have another name for it, Churning and Scalping.
nice symmetrical triange today on qqqq
which way will it break out?
Me thinks down based on bonds action (going up sharply now).
Speaking of Churning and Scalping - duh
If I were a major airline I’d set up the smaller newer airlines. I’d get with the other majors and create a situation where smaller airlines would want to get in the market – then I’d use an oil crises (real or not) and pick these guys resources off because in business, if your not growing your dying. I think job killers like IBM, or major banks, or major chemicals… do the same thing, with creative regulation and lots of other little tricks. But that’s the nature of small business – they have to swim with the sharks.
Earl
GRS...... thinly traded
Gammon Gold Inc. ("Gammon Gold") (TSX:GAM) and (NYSE:GRS) is pleased to announce that the Company's audited year-end financial results for the period ended December 31, 2010 will be released before the market opens on Monday, March 28, 2011. The financial statements will be available on the Company's website at www.gammongold.com or www.sedar.com.
A webcast and conference call will be held on Monday, March 28, 2011 starting at 10:00 am Eastern Time. Senior management will be on hand to discuss the results.
A live webcast of the Company's Analyst Day presentations will be available on March 28, 2011 at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time, directly following the Company's year-end 2010 results conference call and webcast.
Re: CAP.V - Castle Peak
ALOHA!!
According to IB I see the following:
Volume-391.7K
Bid-$1.35CDN
Ask-$1.44CDN
High-$1.69CDN
Low-$1.25CDN
The FD is 61mil but without warrants its 45mil and as anyone knows about Private Placements(PP)they cannot be flipped tomorrow and even the insiders are locked down for 36 months.
What is value then? Let me relate the ROB POWER story again that took a little under the radar junior in Nevada by the name of US GOLD from $0.35USD to over $1USD in less than a day. That's ROB POWER!
What price do you put on RANDY POWER then, what's that premium? I cannot say only the market can, but I will agree that at $1.44 it is out of my range for a junior without at least a 500,000 ounce 5/gt AU NI43-101. I look at PMI GOLD in comparison, but then if PMI GOLD had Randy Smallwood onboard when it did IPO I doubt the share price would have gotten down to $0.03, even in the global credit crash(GCC). Still Randy Smallwood is not the only one managing this company and with the other ex-Wheaton River/Goldcorp execs I think you have to factor in some more management premium. How much premium is what the market decides not me. Right now the market likes management, but I would wait and buy in when the drill results start to flow and/or the POW NI43-101 is reported.
The PEOPLE TREE is a powerful thing to behold. The Rob McEwens and the Randy Smallwoods of the mining world are like the Bill Gates and Steve Jobs of the tech world. You have to respect their track record and mainly I respect their "network". These guys know some very powerful people, some powerful institutions, some powerful politicians and the key ... some very powerful bankers! They have shown they are innovative and they stand the test of time and markets. There is an implied guarantee when you own their companies. Ask Bill Cara since he knows these guys and knows the circles they move in. I talk to Randy Smallwood on the phone, but I do not move in his circles. I have never met him before. I am just a Hawaii orchid farmer who exploits niche monetary markets.
I have to thank my network for this opportunity. Still you do not get a network and you do not get ahead in this World unless you put in the time and effort and show up ready to go.
Back to my farming ...
Re: Look at the markets
There's nothing like the PDAC to increase the volatility of miner stocks, eh! My watchlist has got several up, several down by anywhere from 1 - 9%. I'll bet we're not hearing from Vad or other daytraders much today 'cause they're glued to their charts with their fingers on the button! :)
Nibbling
GRR .82 and GIX .66 POT.TO $53.6 CIEN 24.45 JDSU $21.5 AAPL GOOG
Could be early. Who really knows.
Re: Copper fundamentals
JB, Mark I don't try to predict prices targets, just maintain awareness of support levels.
JB I just got a hold of Jim Rogers Twitter blog and he put out a little twit saying commodities are in a bull market and will go to ridiculous prices before the bull market is finished. So who knows what normal is and when it will return so.
Note support levels in copper futures. JJC's chart is a little more encouraging.
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=jjc
We shall see.
Re: Copper fundamentals
I know jack about metals, but the JJC chart looks like it broke an uptrend on high volume. Am I missing something?
Re: Copper fundamentals
Yap, both JJC and FCX made fresh lower lows. Only TCK is hanging at a support.
Temporary oil crisis?
March 9 commentary. Thomas doesn't think so, but rather Saud Arabia is solid and friday will not be earthshaking.
http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/
What Countries Are Most Vulnerable To An Oil Price Shock?
Apparently not USA, but Asia and eastern europe. More here: http://blogs.forbes.com/afontevecchia/2011/03/09/w...
Laszlo Birinyi
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/67469124/
I'm 100% in cash right now...but I agree with him.
Re: Temporary oil crisis?
This guy Thomas should have asked the opinions of some Arabic natives before bloviating in ignorance about oil politics in the Middle East.
"But Saudi Arabia is not Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, or Libya. The latter countries had shaky regimes that were established during the postwar era that were built on sand. Saudi Arabia has been around a lot longer. It is based on a series of inter-tribal marriages between tribes that took place during the early 1920’s that remain rock solid today. Being the wealthiest country in the region, the Saudi’s had a lot more money to spread around to keep everyone loyal. This is why Al Qaida has made absolutely no inroads there for the past 20 years."
Yeah, the House of Saud is such an 'established' regime compared to those other kingdoms .... Heck, the King of Morocco, which he conveniently left out, claims lineage to Mohammad going back centuries, not decades. But he's right that the House of Saud has a few decades on those other regimes and that somehow makes a big difference in its stability.
The Libyan regime is built on sand? I'll take those oil reserves if you won't any day. Oh, and Tunisia is built on sand even though its history as a Mediterranian trade and cultural mecca first by the Phoenicians (Carthage) controling maritime trade in the Med and then by the Romans as a trade avenue into Africa is just dust in the wind? Egypt is built on sand ... and the Western regimes are built on ... interest and money lending?!
Al Qaida has made "absolutely no inroads [into Saudi Arabia] for the past 20 years." Yeah, those 9-11 suicide terrorist with Saudi citizenship made some outroads though.
Look, the House of Saud has an incrediable concentration of oil wealth spread amongst some 200 or so powerful brothers, sons, and grandsons (Princes). I am told by my Arabic friends that these wealthy boys are all more or less loathed by the Arab world and considered bad Muslims. Meanwhile, there is no productive economy in Saudi Arabia other than oil production and palace maintenance but its burgeoning population of youthfully unemployed enjoy a stellar (and growing) welfare handout while they pound sand waiting for their DAY OF RAGE.
The House of Saud is known for its harsh oppression, like public beheadings and religious censorship, so it should be interesting and may all those young Saudis stay safe.
Cheers.
Bill Gross goes to Zero.....>
... http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-bill-gr...
Re: Temporary oil crisis?
I know Thomas flings his opinions around casually, but he is a pretty seasoned observer of most things. Nothing posted here should be taken as gospel, but as grist for the mill.
We'll know friday. Do you think the young folks are going to take on the house of Saud? Won't the house just buy everyone off?
See the Post-Close Report
In the commentary at the top of the page.
Re: CAP.V - Castle Peak
50% willingness to do the work, put in the effort, 50% fortuitous circumstances. IMDO.
Earl
Re: Bill Gross goes to Zero.....>
Hi Baz. So, let me get this straight ( it is really time to get the hell out of dodge in all security classes - bonds, and most certainly, equities.). so he's going to cash? Not gold, or silver, or stocks with 54B? If he's going to cash do you think he believes we're going back on a gold standard? At least oil, or gold mining stocks have value. I'm mostly in equities including some EDZ because I don't see much value in a dollar. What am I missing?
Regards
Earl
13 Bankers
They were careless people, Tom and Daisy--they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness, or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made.
F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby
Fortuitously they showed up claiming to be gods with some rights... It was good enough for two branches of sycophant government and DeSade chronicled their lives...before they showed up.
Earl
Re: Laszlo Birinyi
Are you waiting for a dip to go back? I'm eying emerging markets and India and they act very strongly now after that multi month weakness. But, I can't bring myself to buy right now.
Re: Bill Gross goes to Zero.....>
Not only cash but also international and emerging bonds. He basically lost his faith in US bonds and US dollar: http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=125085
However, I cannot help but notice when his posture (high cash levels) was similar in mid 2008, he was wrong as both bonds and dollar skyrocketed. Is he in the dumb money group?
Re: Bill Gross goes to Zero.....>
Hi Jack,
'Dumb money group' could be, I'm clueless however I thought the 08 flight to safety dollar/t bills was due to the globle market meltdown. Funny thing, the problems in the middle east has not improved the dollars position, this time! I'll check out your link thanks. So many mixed signals...
Regards
Earl
Re: Mr Mortgage assesses the road ahead for housing
Doc S.
Point by point. If Nick Cage was a house flipper then he got what most got, upside down and broke.
The Aspen housing market is off a whooping 12 to 15% over the last 3 years.
National net lease market Cap rates from Price Waterhouse data is no doubt correct. It is an AVERAGE such that a Detroit tire warehouse with a 20 cap rate averages with a Dallas light manufacturing facility that Caps out at 6%.
All real estate is LOCAL. A fellow can drown in a river that on average is three feet deep.
In 09, appraisers for bank loan purposes were using Cap rates of 12 to 14%. The world was going to Hell and the banks wouldn't lend money against even your collected bank balance!
If you want to refi one of your commercial properties in Texas, I can put you in touch with my banker who will lend at 4.25% fixed for 15 years assuming of course you have at least 25% equity. Perhaps I was too aggressive implying that Cap rates have declined by 60%. In my case, it was only 50%.
My 'heads up' a couple of weeks ago was only that the CMBS market is roaring back. Personally I think it is a stupid reach for yield by desparate institutions which will end badly.
In short, I've refied everything I own at 4.25% fixed for 15 years and also own an obscene amount of TBT. I do not speak with a forked tongue unlike my Government.
Cheers
Re: See the Post-Close Report
Thank you Patrick. NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator illustrates your argument nicely.
Indicators for the Q's have just started a bearish crossover, the index appearing to respect resistance levels going back to 1999. But as you say, let Mr Market pull its bluff first. I certainly got a taste of it in AMZN today.
You a David Bowie fan by any chance?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36lWAcY9IXE
GRR
1st RBY now GRR - GoldenReign Resources
I had been researching GRR, while considering a purchase. This evening 3/10/2011, I scanned a long email I received 3/9/2011 6:03pm.
Here is a small portion of the contents:
"Clarification of Corporate Disclosure
The Company does not have a National Instrument 43-101 ("NI 43-101") compliant mineral resource delineated on its Property. The Company's National Instrument 43-101 technical report (the "Report") filed on September 25, 2009 includes a historical resource estimate for the San Albino Mine from 1948 based on data from 1934, extracted from a report by R. Peale (the "Peale Report"). The British Columbia Securities Commission ("BCSC") has questioned the relevance and suitability of this estimate for public disclosure based upon its age, lack of subsequent access and verification, and subsequent work conducted on the property. This historical estimate pre-dates and is non-compliant with NI 43-101. In addition, the Report discloses a potential resource estimate for the Arras prospect, providing an estimate of potential quantity and grade, expressed as ranges...."
"Corporate presentations from November 2010 and June 2010 posted on the Company's website were removed. The presentations reported preliminary metallurgical test recoveries of +92%, which are not supported by the Report..."
"2009/2010 Exploration Results
Summary
During the period from October 2009 to the end of 2010, the Company completed reconnaissance level exploration across the entire Property, with a focus on the southern (San Albino) district and the northern (Murra) district...
In the San Albino District, the Company completed a core drilling program, totaling 1,514.75 metres, over the San Albino Mine and Arras prospects. Drilling confirmed the thickness, grade and continuity of the San Albino Mine mineralization."
----------
I have neither the time nor expertise to interpret this lengthy disclosure tonight. Perhaps a board member with money invested in GRR will post an interpretation, in the future. For the investors sake, I hope it's just a confusing mixup and there is no material effect. However, until I have confidence in GRR's drill results, I won't be investing in GRR.
Re: See the Post-Close Report
ALOHA!!
My old buddies in the fiber optics sector took a big hit today ...
Dogs of the Day:
• Finisar (FNSR-38.54%)
• JDS Uniphase (JDSU-16.71%)
From Patrick's Post-Close. Seems like another lifetime ago!
Short term bullish divergence setups in big NASDAQ stocks
In the guise of waiting for the market to play its hand I was sniffing around a few big NASDAQ names for clues. You can see how the stochastics bullish divergence evident in the three charts played out yesterday in AMZN much to my chagrin. That's what I get for playing amateur hour sucker. That cost me a couple of % points.
Hourly time frames are good for a session or three, so I watch to see the indicators following any potential bounce that may occur. AMZN has a decent uptrend line serving as support in the daily time frame. Let's see if it holds.
I'm not interested in playing these smaller time frame moves as university sucks me back in again, so I'll await the outcome.
Twiggs latest
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2011-...
Re: GRR
ALOHA!!
My interpretation of the issues here is in relation to reporting confusing misstatements which were historical in nature and therefore non-compliant to NI43-101 standards. It's hard for me to think this is a major issue as I always understood that these old reports dated from the 1930s or 1950s and the prior owners(Condor) were only intended for use in order to prove up these historical assays with the current "compliant" drilling programs. As an investor I was always aware of that, but the "t"s and "i"s did not get dotted and crossed to the satisfaction of the British Columbia Securities Commission(BSCS).
In terms of a qualifying person I have always seen this guy in all the news releases of drill results, so I do not think that is a big issue.
Qualified Person
John M. Kowalchuk, P.Geo, a geologist and qualified person (as defined under NI 43-101) has reviewed the technical information contained in this news release.
In terms of the Peale Report and the Condor Reports those past estimates and NI43-101s only added up to 42,000 and 76,000 ounces, so we are not talking about a huge resource at any rate. Besides a new complaint NI43-101 will be released soon, but not soon enough for tomorrow.
The prior owner(Condor)metallurgy recovery rate and the MD&A issues are more valid. The Company was not compliant and was incorrectly reporting past data to show "potential".
Pretty much the "Summary" keeps the drill program and the assays intact and compliant, but they are a copy of previous news releases that the BSCS must not have issues with otherwise they would have been retracted also, so none of that data is historical in nature like the Peale Report was.
What has been driving the price though has been the current drill program and sample grades and shallow depths and the further delineation of the past mining records. Those are not in dispute but once again the Company crossed a line in terms of keeping past mining records separate from current drill assays in a few instances in an attempt to infer "potential".
I do not know what to say about the "Myles Report" as it was never anything more than just a newsletter updating progress on a number of mining companies and global issues related to economics and politics. I do know the newsletter not only reported on GRR but other mining companies like ATAC and LYM and even some telcom company. Not sure how there was ever a link on the GRR website as there is none on the LYM or ATC websites that I know of. To be honest I never even knew there was a link. Whoever was running the company website slipped up on that one. Still the newsletter never said any more than what the news releases said for the most part. Same issue different source. Minor in my book.
I can see where this March 9th news release would cause a sell off tomorrow simply because the BSCS is involved and there have been some reporting issues, but I do not think it negates the current drill results and exploration program. I think it stinks a bit here to see the share price come down from $0.92 to $0.82 on the same day prior to the announcement at 5:50PM, so it is obvious to me someone knew about this and sold prior to the news. The down volume was not super huge though.
I will call tomorrow and find out the scoop here, but in my mind the historic ounces are just starting to be proved so the non-compliant NI43-101s don't add up to a lot of ounces here, barely over 100,000, besides most knew they were non-complaint due to age and prior owner reports anyway. To the Company's merit they did report this ASAP and certainly went to great lengths to clarify and comply with the BSCS issues, but as I said before just having the BSCS on the scene will create concerns.
I do know a number of bigger institutions and hedge funds just came onboard through the last private placement like Salida Capital(a Goldman Sachs hedgie) and Pope Capital and Mackie Capital Research. Why would these guys buy in if they thought the Company was trying to pass off historical data as NI43-101 compliant? I think their analysts would know the difference. Still the downside is that the average daily volume is only 125,000 shares and the volume on Wednesday of 350,000+ made a 16% dent. That's a downside, but the upside works in reverse and you can get whiplash trading these juniors. Still risk is risk.
In my opinion the Company can't get more high grade assays and the new NI43-101 out fast enough. This is no major company buster based on what was reported. I will try to decipher some of this prior to market with a phone call. No guarantees though ...
About Face to a Sore Thumb
Charts, tables, and the one chart that everyone with paper and crayon sees.
http://tinyurl.com/4tynene
Re: Laszlo Birinyi
Both of these guys were regulars on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser — they NEVER saw a market they didn't like.
They are salesmen who have advised people to be in the market. Are they about to say, "If I were you, I'd sell all of what I just told you to buy,"???
Re: Bill Gross goes to Zero.....>
Just a couple of questions:
1. If this is yet to be "publicly reported" who are WE who are reading this?
2. Why Is Bill Gross telling US?
If QE2 did exactly the opposite of what all expected and Ts went higher, who knows whether a QE3 would go higher yet (as he seems to indicate) or once again do the unexpected?
Trying to out guess The House is futile.