CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
[7:00am ET] Good morning.
Red monitors in the morning are a trader’s warning. Today, like yesterday, a strong US Dollar is proving yet another picador.
Tough day in Europe for the miners and the bankers:
Note how the Euro strength and weakness takes copper and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) along for the ride.
I have taken note that the Goldminers index (GDX), which was $50.17 in the day I started the Goldminer portfolio, is down to $56.76 and dropping rapidly. While that is a gain of +12.9%, my portfolio is still up over +30.4%. With a strong USD and weak Euro, that spread will likely widen somewhat today.
Have a good day.
Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.
| Symbol | Name | Last Trade | Change | Related Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^ATX | ATX | 2,799.00 |
 23.00 (0.82%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^BFX | BEL-20 | 2,712.31 |
7.00 (0.26%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FCHI | CAC 40 | 4,003.48 |
54.60 (1.35%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^GDAXI | DAX | 7,373.18 |
121.87 (1.63%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^AEX | AEX General | 355.76 |
4.79 (1.33%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^OSEAX | OSE All Share | 481.86 |
7.81 (1.59%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SMSI | Madrid General | N/A | 0.00 (0.00%) | Chart, More |
| ^OMXSPI | Stockholm General | 371.66 |
3.21 (0.86%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SSMI | Swiss Market | 6,524.34 |
38.48 (0.59%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FTSE | FTSE 100 | 5,894.73 |
81.27 (1.36%) |
Components, Chart, More |
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL
The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.
Enjoy your day.
Cara on Trends & Cycles
Vad's Catch of the Day
Kaimu's Sound Money
CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Good evening. Patrick here.
How many times over the past couple years has a wobbly S&P breached short-term support during an opening hour only to magically find a bid, furiously rallying into the close (S&P+0.49%)?
The Bearded One has publicly stated higher assets prices are a means to an end, a panacea to elevate consumer confidence, the tonic to stimulate hiring, spending, and lending. With the Fed and other international central banks desperately seeking rising equity prices is it any wonder buyers appear out of thin air?
Just asking…
Silver (SLV-1.74%) slumped nearly -9% early this morning taking out the previous low of this two-week bloodbath, at the lows off an incredible -35% since the final week of April. Today’s low (31.55) was pennies away from an exact 50% retracement of the bull run from Feb 2010 through April of 2011.
The market keeps hanging in there; two years and a 100% rise is about all Bulls can historically expect from a cyclical advance, but every time it appears equities are about to rollover they somehow regain their footing.
S&P 1329 – the low on May 5 – now becomes critical near-term support, taking out that level will be a shot across the bow. The Bull is faltering, a time to get more defensive.
Lastly, just to clear up any confusion from last night’s post close report; the media is a pawn of the power brokers, a mouthpiece to get us to initiate trades at prices having little chance of success.
The point I was trying to make was mainstream media leads the unsuspecting to the slaughter – by the time journalists pick up on a trend and start talking about it every day, the trend is about to end – the old magazine cover indicator.
Gold and silver have been going up for nine years, yet it wasn't until recently that CNBC has been running stories about precious metals. They shove people who have been on the sidelines into the investment at precisely the wrong time.
Who can forget the infamous 2006 CNBC road show touting real estate – “… buy second homes, flip your way to retirement…”, etc.
Silver's parabolic ascent snapped just as it double-topped against a 31-year high of 50, the volume in April as it rose from 40 to 50 was off the charts. But last August it was trading at 17 dollars – no CNBC stories then.
So, everyone piling in on Tout TV advice is down -30% in less than two weeks. End of story.
Have a great evening.
Comments
Econoday Today
Re: Bill Cara's Blog for May 12, 2011
Thanks for that Mark, BoC tightening is good for a dose of fear in commodities. So emerging markets are in late cycle tightening which will hamstring commodities. Growth in the the EU, UK and US are low, so no consumption there. Equity markets to be dragged lower with commodities? I think so. JMO.
-------------------------------------------
Cracks getting larger in the Euro experiment:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,...
Barriers to freedom of movement re-erected around individual national borders in defiance of EU treaty:
"On Wednesday, Denmark announced plans to set up customs booths at land border crossings, harbors and airports. The border controls are supposed to be introduced within two to three weeks.
"Over the past few years we have seen an increase in trans-border crime, and this is designed to curb the problem," said Finance Minister Claus Hjort Frederiksen, who insisted the controls were compatible with Schengen rules."
Cara 100 Ratings Changes For POMO Thursday
Good morning.
5-7 Billion Dollar POMO Injection Today.
------
8:30 - Initial/Continuing Claims
8:30 - PPI
8:30 - Retail Sales
10:00 - Business Inventories
------
CSCO - PT Lowered from $24 to $22 @ Oppenheimer. Outperform.
CSCO - Cisco downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord citing another disappointing outlook, difficult comps, and declines in core switching, among other reasons. Price target lowered to $20 from $24.
CSCO - Cisco downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird citing disappointing Q4 guidance, and longer-term gross margin and pricing challenges. Price target lowered to $20 from $22
------
"Based on my own personal experience -- both as an investor in recent years and an expert witness in years past -- rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise." ~ Marty Whitman
Post Close Formula
Patrick,
"Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago everyone was proclaiming the death of the dollar? The yellow brick road to riches paved with gold and silver, the long commodity play the simplistic survival strategy?"
I think you've just outline my path. For a swing trader like me this sounds like a pretty good formula longer term. A 15 to 20 year survival is my goal.
Unless we see a miraculous policy change (A Bernanke "DUH! Moment) the dollar seems doomed to commodity status itself. If so gold, silver and any commodity from soup to nuts will increase relative to the prettiest printed paper.
Read any of several illustrations by Kaimu.
Grym
FT: France to ban fracking of fossil fuels
http://on.ft.com/lO1Omz
Re: Bill Cara's Blog for May 12, 2011
Les,
Don't forget Japan. They have a massive rebuilding programme in the works.
Re: Bill Cara's Blog for May 12, 2011
That'll come with the reflation trade in Autumn Mark. I'm thinking through to end of quarter here.
At least Chinese copper speculators will have someone to take their holdings shortly...
I noticed this extract at Jesse's Cafe this morning:
"The years from 1929 to 1933 were, for America, a succession of breaking idols and abandoned faiths, some of them the notions of willful children, some deeply ingrained in the character of the nation ... By agreement with the Government, Banks placed an artificial value upon certain securities they held. Those who did not know of the agreement assumed that the values were actual.” Gilbert Vivian Seldes, The Years of the Locust: America 1929-1932, Little, Brown, and Co (1933)"
It reminded me of what Bill said. Inflate assets and then write off impairments. Rinse and repeat until the banking sector is stabilised. The 1930's all over again.
Stock Market
I'd be careful about not getting too negative here. The S&P is only down a little more than 2% from it's yearly high. Could this be the start of a big move south - possibly, a lot of the rise in the S&P was directly inverse to the lower US dollar, so as the dollar reverses, this tail wind goes away, but lower commodities will help company margins and potentially offset this for many companies and help grow margins.
US Jobless Claims -44K To 434K In May 7 Wk; Survey -46K
...
Morning numbers
*(US) APR PRODUCER PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.8% V 0.6%E; PPI EX FOOD & ENERGY M/M: 0.3% V 0.2%E
- PPI Y/Y: 6.8% v 6.5%e
- PPI Ex Food & Energy Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1%e
*(US) APR ADVANCE RETAIL SALES: 0.5% V 0.6%E; RETAIL SALES LESS AUTOS: 0.6% V 0.6%E
- Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas: 0.2% v 0.5%e
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 434K V 430KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.756M V 3.70ME
- Prior Initial Jobless Claims revised higher from 474K to 478K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 3.733M to 3.751M
- 4 week Avg claims: 436.8K v 431.3K prior
Wisdom from high above:
(US) Fed's Plosser: Continued economic recovery will soon require rate increases; worried by the volitility seen in inflation expectations
- The April unemployment rate was a disappointment, but job market continues to improve. (continues to improve or continues to disappoint??)
- Expects an unemployment rate of around 8.5% by the end of 2011, 7.5% by end of 2012.
- Expects oil prices to level off; even with the commodity sell off, commodity prices are still quite high. (you don't say)
- Worried that the Fed may not have the full confidence of the public when in comes to fighting inflation. (Ever wonder why?? Looked up your track record recently?)
- Long term inflation expectations remain reasonable. (we may have to redefine "reasonable"...)
"college education"
this is definitely a non-political remark as I do not remember who controlled the house and senate when they eliminated student loans from being included in bankrupcy. I cringe when I think of the amount of $$ some/make that many graduates from both trade and formal education are saddled w/for many years or forever into their future........a new slavery I think. re the market, I bgt some june 131 SPY puts and sold a like amount of 126s against them for under $1. Time will tell but I think we could be in the 1250s by mid June.......best to everyone and thanks to Baz22 for DSCO... am watching his ARRY for entry.....
Rolling Stone on behalf of The People
…misses the point.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-peop...
The last paragraph warns that “the law in America (may be) subjective”.
Securities law is, in fact, subjective. Always has been. That makes it a political matter and not a judicial concern.
“Subject to regulatory approval” are keywords in the rulebook of every regulatory agency in the world. The problem is that culture trumps politics and because of differing mores around the world there can never be uniformity of application. Yet, we trade at the speed of light in a borderless world of business and finance.
Unfortunately, the fraudsters, whether they are a banking group or an underworld mob, are too sophisticated today to be stopped by cash-strapped local authorities. What the world needs now is for the G-20 to agree to fund an international apolitical white collar crime fighting agency that employs the best securities lawyers and forensic accountants.
In summary, white collar fraud is not just an American issue. The problem is global, stemming from international organizations connected to every capital market and every financial services industry in the world; hence the solution must be a global one.
CS views on Greece
Greece; where next?
• We still think it unlikely that Greece would leave the euro: Greek net foreign liabilities are high at 88% of GDP (rising to c180% if Greece left the euro with a devaluation of c50%); cheap ECB loans are 33% of Greek banks' funding: without this, the loan book might have to fall c20%; a Greek exit could trigger capital flight from peripheral to core Europe, requiring considerable deleveraging in the periphery; the ECB owns cEu50bn of Greek bonds and the EU/IMF have lent Greece Eu53bn; leaving the euro could mean leaving the EU.
• We also think on balance Greece would choose to avoid early debt restructuring, given that: it would only be in a good bargaining position when it runs a primary budget surplus (vs. a 1% deficit this year); Greek banks' annual PPP is equivalent to 3% of loans, thus the longer the restructuring is postponed the less recapitalisation of banks is required; Greece has only a Eu27bn funding shortfall in 2012E. We acknowledge the attractions of early restructuring as markets look too pessimistic (with CDS implying 50% default vs required c40%) and it is affordable (we estimate a 32% default of Greek, Irish and Portuguese debt would cost cEu200bn, less than one year's worth of pre-provisioning profits of the European banks). We think a default would take the form of lengthening debt maturities (eg. an 8-year extension would reduce NPV by 34%), with regulators allowing banks not to mark to market and without CDS contracts being triggered. We doubt debt restructuring would occur before the Portuguese election or the results of the European bank stress test. EFSF funding could be used to buy back government bonds and interest payments could be reduced.
• Problems in peripheral Europe are not resolved by government default. The two main problems are loss of competitiveness (the need for wages to fall by 2-7%) and high private sector debt to GDP, (220% in Portugal and Spain vs 170% in the US). We stay cautious of peripheral Europe. FCC and Brisa have >50% of sales to peripheral Europe and look expensive on Credit Suisse HOLT®. We believe the issues in peripheral Europe are ultimately manageable as: Spain does not need to default; core Europe realises the cost of not helping peripheral Europe is greater than helping; Germany is growing strongly (creating inflation and reducing the periphery's competitiveness problem). We worry that if the ECB overtightens policy, this would put pressure on the (largely floating rate) excess-leveraged periphery. We remain underweight Continental Europe but long domestic Germany, short peripheral Europe (especially Spain) and believe the euro will weaken further.
Re: Wisdom from high above:
Vad,
"- Expects an unemployment rate of around 8.5% by the end of 2011, 7.5% by end of 2012."
Obviously Washington is able to say the unemployment numbers are whatever they want them top be. The following is from Yahoo today.
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of people applying for unemployment benefits plummeted last week, reversing nearly all the sharp rise reported the previous week."
So, are we to assume then, that nearly as many people found jobs within a week?
All this does is anger people who have no prospects, can't afford to travel to look elsewhere, are no longer eligible for unemployment.
The news today is a party game like "telephone" I remember playing at birthday parties as kid — one whispers a comment to the kid near him and it passes around the table — what comes out at the end is laughable. (In this case pathetic.)
Grym
Cara 100 Update
CSCO - estimates upped at Goldman through 2012. Company is boosting margins through cost cuts. Neutral rating and $21 price target.
Re: CS views on Greece
All law is subjective if you have enough money - just ask O.J. Simpson
Oil and the dollar are Key
I'm planning my investment in the markets around a much lower oil prices. Then in late 2012, I believe metals and oil will take off again. Not much of a place to hide now except having a large cash position and maybe some large blue chip defensive companies such as pharmacy stocks. Americans will not stand for $5 oil. Also, I believe GS is very connected to the political landscape and has the ability to manipulate markets, especially the dollar and oil. This market has become very political in nature with significant currency issues. Again, I would not be surprised to see oil around $75 before the 2012 presidential election. These markets are tricky to trade now.
Talking about Stocks…The Good and The Bad
Something worth sharing in that I post with the mindset of this author, i.e, airing out my trades as opposed to doing a Cramer.
http://howardlindzon.com/talking-about-stocks-the-...
"I disclose when I trade, not so YOU trade, but to note what I am doing and that allows me to continue to talk through MY trade. I don’t say BUY this, or Sell that, I write what I AM DOING. I think it works, because as open as I am, and as many losses as I have taken over the years, I never get the hate mail. People don’t yell at me or blame me...
...Jim Cramer/TheStreet is a master at the SEO financial headline. Here is one from April 25th titled ‘Keep Buying Silver‘. I think he means KEEP BUYING SILVER.
I am trying to find his ‘I stopped Buying Silver’ or ‘Holy S%ç*, my Keep Buying Silver headline was stupid’ or ‘I can’t take the pain anymore in Silver, I am a shmendrick, sorry’, but he has long removed himself from this responsibility and prefers to use new media to complain and shout."
Leadership: minimal high regard
Speaker McCormack, at worst, would hold colleagues in "minimal high regard". Regarding the debt ceiling, there is no leadership from anywhere in the brinksmanship game, worst in the Senate where they can dump it on the House. Really, really pathetic.
SLV last quarter covered
SLW ripping to the upside here. I am considering the potential for $ inverted H&S forming, which might give some bounce to the market and commodities at these levels. +4.6x or so is pushing it for two sessions. I'll take it. Let's see how the indexes shape up at these support levels.
(EG) IMF: Egypt has
(EG) IMF: Egypt has officially requested assistance to fund approx $12B shortfall
- Notes IMF will discuss Ireland aid at May 16 meeting.
- Reiterates IMF might extend Greece repayment schedule.
the inventory is so back locked, housing can't recover
says Sheila Blair on capital hill today.
nothing has changed. the recovery is trapped in the top 5% income brackets.
Thus i am happy the topping process is longer for housing. and gives me the opp to liquidate. I would bet that the govt will have to again help banks unload shadow inventory by offering incentives for buyers. which i expect will be the real top for housing.
i suspect in 5 yrs from now, prices will be lower than they are today for homes. so the majority of us are paying interest and taxes on depreciating equity/asset. no diff than buying falling equity on margin.
Re: (EG) IMF: Egypt has
Greece repayment schedule? 1,200 yrs?
Sign of the Times: Giving houses away . . .
BAC giving houses away, plus funding for the demolition.
Sun Times: Bank of America Corp. said Wednesday it will deliver to the city of Chicago and to a community group expedited ownership of abandoned and foreclosed homes.
The bank said it hopes the program will minimize the blighting influence that neglected properties have on neighborhoods.
Single-family homes referred under the program would be certified as uninhabitable and demolished. Bank spokesman Rick Simon said up to 150 homes will be part of the effort. He said the bank has agreed to pay up to $10,000 a home for demolition.
http://tinyurl.com/3m683o4
Re: (EG) IMF: Egypt has
I am not that optimistic.
RBY
RBY reports more drilling results
Ron Paul For President Campaign Announcement Expected Friday
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/12/ron-paul-...
Silver: Index lower but climbing, and some PMs hanging tough?
Day started off with SLV @ 31.XX, now at 33.41
SLW has been up, so has UXG (though this is not a pure silver play at all), same with CGR. Is this not the opposite of what we were seeing the other days: index is higher while PMs are going lower? I feel inclined to dip my toes in the water ...
Re: Silver: Index lower but climbing, and some PMs hanging ...
joe -
SLW looked quite strong early on when the futures contracts were being pounded premarket; SLW was down just a few percent with the metal off 6%. In my book that's accumulation, and we've seen throughout the day it has continued to go up. SLW is now up 2.3% while the metal is still struggling to return to even.
The weaker dollar has helped for sure - but at the market open today, the buck had already dropped, while there was one last sell-off in silver in the moments before 930. That, in combination with the failure of the mining stocks to sell off along with the metal told me they were just playing games.
Now that doesn't mean it will be a rocket ship from here on out. We might have another retest of the lows, or another silver-pounding giving HB&B more chances to accumulate. HB&B needs big volumes to make their bonuses, and to pry shares out of the public the metal needed to get pounded down.
FD: long SLW and other assorted miners
Made in America - The Comeback
Boston Consulting Group predicts 2015 will be a tipping point of sorts, when global manufacturers will view the U.S. as equal to if not better-than China, senior partner Harold Sirkin tells me in the accompanying video.
The US has done it before - remember when all the jobs were going to Japan?
This is the win-win scenario that I think plays out. Higher Yuan, higher standard of living for China, more jobs for America, etc.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/made-a...
2nd_ave
Anyone know what happened to 2nd_ave? Always liked reading his comments, but haven't seen anything in a couple of weeks and when I click on his id, I get an error.
common sense from Finland
A politician who speaks the truth? Impossible, you say? This article is all stuff we know already, but to hear a european politician say it feels refreshing.
"Why I don't support Europe's Bailouts."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487038...
what's to like about Latin America !
'the bus is going backwards" ... the most popular Dominican song-writer complains of NO progress in getting his girlfriend to deliver on her promises: of a cuban dance to animate my party, a maraca for rhythmn, a little dried fruit, a cup of lime tea before his siesta, a little snugglin'
His "complaint" is salsa, loose and silly:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9x_Zmt4S01s&feature...
the bus is going backwards ...
Not trying to raise the ire of anyone
but as traders, it pays to keep alert. I will leave it at that > http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04261106/H1N1_Al...
New one from the parolee
Armstrong is putting out the essays since he's confined to his home, I would guess. GS must be plotting ways to shut him up.
http://tinyurl.com/3hqcr4d
Africa is now one of the world’s fastest-growing regions
http://www.economist.com/node/17853324
Sorry for using "the Economist"...
Re: Rolling Stone on behalf of The People
Bill,
I agree with you on the local lack of enforcement of the securities law...but an "international apolitical agency?" Is that possible? The global community hates America and will look to soak it for all its worth.
Who will hire those people to run the agency... and who will they appoint...probably people that are now to be considered of high esteem in the financial global community? Who's that?
As long as the same characters are running the house we cannot expect different results. There was a tiny chance to fix the system at the point of the collapse, it didn't happen, and now the HB&B is now even further entrenched. Who of any significance has gone to jail?
The masses haven't been dealt a hard enough blow by the HB&B yet to cause a rebellion...another fleecing of the public to the tune of say 50% from here might do it.
Re: Rolling Stone on behalf of The People
Its not that the global community hates America, they just dont trust America.
Re: Silver: Index lower but climbing, and some PMs hanging ...
As the market advanced I'd be convinced to buy miners of a one day support rebound, but as the mining sector stalls here it seems investors need several days to be convinced that support will hold, so I'll wait to see what the money says. Using the 8MA crossover for buy/sell signals miners are in limbo. JMO.
Dear HB&B
Just hold this rally together for a few more months while i liquidate my mortgages. To Timmy, keep the rates near zero just a lil while longer
thx in advance.
Re: Silver: Index lower but climbing, and some PMs hanging ...
Les - "as the mining sector stalls here it seems investors need several days to be convinced that support will hold"
I think you're likely right, I'm probably too optimistic. I'm seeing accumulation for sure, but we probably need a few more days of this sort of thing to get a safer entry point.
worse than i thought. 900 days from default notice to REO
in NY and NJ.
As i mentioned i know folks who are still squatting. some who have finally been kicked out.
But the avg time, reported by Realtytrac, shows 900 days, nearly 3 yrs of free shelter.
http://bit.ly/mq79WF
10 states account for 70 percent of total foreclosure activity. thats either good news saying the issue will remain concentrated. or bad news if it signals only the beginning and other states will pile on.
bottom line, housing wont be fixed by legislation. it will repair itself over many decades of citizens saving and wages increasing. how that will happen still escapes me when i think about the debt issues and education issues in this country.
Re: Rolling Stone on behalf of The People
and the global community can be trusted? :)
Re: 2nd_ave
I was wondering about him as well.
IB Freudian slip?
Got this notice from IB today. The content isn't the interesting part. I found it humorous that in the final sentence it came through as "SEC?s" instead of "SEC's".
Effective June 1, 2011, IB will begin passing on to customers the SEC fee associated with U.S. listed option transactions. This fee, currently assessed at a rate of $0.0000192 per $1.00 of sales proceeds, serves to recover costs associated with the SEC?s supervision and regulation of the U.S. securities markets.
Re: 2nd_ave
Maybe he is upset about CSCO's guidance for the next quarter and is laying low in an off beat place like maybe Bullhead City. Here is a video in honor of his absence. Don't hate on me. 40,000,000,000 hits cannot be wrong.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1zuN17t51A
Stocks for the watch list!
Here are some companies that might pop with positive market.PANL UTEK IPGP APKT VIV ATML ALTR WYNN MCHP . I know they are not miners, but guess what?
All that glitters is not gold;
Often have you heard that told:
Many a man his life hath sold
But my outside to behold:
Gilded tombs do worms enfold.
Had you been as wise as bold,
Young in limbs, in judgement old
Your answer had not been inscroll'd
Fare you well, your suit is cold.
A little Bill Shakespeare to makeup for my Justin indiscretion.
Australia, Gold and the Postage Stamp
Whilst I sat back and watched all my profit on PM's dissapear in about 3 days this week, despite reading Bills warnings, and noting all the threads on "Sell in May ....", I did notice that the correction in prices was not as pronounced once again over in Australia and particularly on SLR. I think Les commented on this recently.
So I attended a lecture last night from a Stamp Collector (a UK philatalist since 1800's) who was discussing how during the 2008 dive in prices, 'rare stamps' were one of the few 'investments' that did not loose their value. Curiouser and curiouser .......
Re: 2nd_ave
Perhaps the ax has fallen a 2nd time as it did on the Shark ages ago and several others. I went through the last postings of the late 2nd_Ave and could not find anything much to warrant such a deed. Then again, I am not a part of the thought police of this blog.
Re: Stocks for the watch list!
Hi Bobby O - How about some heavy metal. I see Gerdau (GGB) on the RSI Tool is in Accumulation mode. Who knows they might have some Au credits or Sn credits like SID; but I am not too sure about Brazil under new management, and don't know much about GGB yet. Happy Trading
Re: Stocks for the watch list!
Luggie,
Although a steel play from Brazil sounds like it has good long term prospects. I am more of a momentum trader than a reversal trader. I would be more likely to short that stock. I would wait for some kind of strength like a buy signal with a move above 30 RSI. BSI 87 had good success with those plays, but I think he would wait for a total capitulation down below RSI 10.
http://finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=GGB&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&s=l
PMV
Continue to accumulate PMV today by a bit by a bit. Not sure why the price get so low by the thin volume.
anyone does the same thing with me?
Re: PMV
I'm thinking a few scenarios Caonima, and with a timeframe of about 1 month. It's posted on the edge of my screen - "cycle low in gold June 13/14". That's the best indication I have on gold prices care of Armstrong. But that can change rapidly.
Now those scenarios - as Jesse points out the market is coiling up for a big move. Is it:
1) a 200 point index gap down taking commodities with it?
2) an index break of resistance to continue the intermediate advance, leaving commodities behind?
3) index advance lifting all boats, including miners?
4) stall and failure to move decisively one way or the other for a number of days/weeks?
I'm happy to sit back and let the market work it out. I'm leveraged a little through options to a downside bias. My biggest concern for market participants would be that in getting confident that big government has their back, they get sloppy and we black swan to another no-bid crash situation. That would cause maximum damage in the face of Uncle Benny's infallible belief that everything is under control.JMO.
You've just reminded me. Time to put some new low-ball buy orders on select miners again. If they do begin an advance without me, it's always possible to buy in. Cheers.
Big picture rural decline and taking the contrarian stance
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518...
It looks like a European issue as Switzerland is also seeing rural properties being abandoned in favour of urban condos around the lakes that dot Switzerland.
This is my big picture Kaimu outlook. Buy a farm and be somewhat more self-sustainable. Demographic, meteorologic, ecologic and inflationary pressures will continue to build and I'm still young enough that I'll be feeling the pain some 30 years from now. Although happily in Switzerland to be 'rural' is to be 30 minutes away from a urbanised area with all the amenities necessary.
Issues like rural sewage infrastructure crumbling are soon to be a thing of the past IMO as sewage can now be composted in the basement of a household's residence, turned into pellets and used in the garden. Pumping crap into the sea will end in the next 50 years. Fuel at $250 a barrel will help local sustainable agriculture return to consumer tables. There is much to celebrate locally if big business' and big governments' grip on unsustainable living can be broken.
The only issue is whether I do it in Europe or in seeking to preserve my partner's retirement savings we leave the country and setup in India or Sth East Asia. How will saver's be punished when this present monetary system breaks down? And Asia is where the market action will be, if Washington doesn't collapse soon and bring about necessary structural reforms. That'll be a pity cause I like working US hours and Switzerland's quality of life is second to none.
Thoughts for the future.
SPY from 30'000ft
The MHFT posted a picture of the markets at 90'000ft. He calls it entering the lost second decade.
I zoomed in a little to 30'000ft and I like what I see. SPY in the weekly chart shows you when the market wants to go down. Sorta like a principle of Aikido, when you want to bring your opponent down don't pull at him/her, put you whole body into it, dropping your centre which undercuts their centre -very effective.
And you can see the weeks where the market wants to go down. It cuts through support with 1 candle (in the weekly time frame), 2 max. before seeking out new support levels. So this mucking around we have the indexes doing here in a tight range, I don't put too much into it as Mr Market will decide when it really wants to make its move.
When I say I like what I see, I've got a light downside bias, sort of a core component of my portfolio which is negative and on autopilot until at least a decisive move to the upside is made, in which case I'll cut my losses. But as I marked in the attachment, I like the possibilities for a market drop to 40MA support before making its next move. Of course we could be in bubble territory and just go higher. There's risk in whatever outlook we take, managing it is rule number 1.
Re: 2nd_ave
Illini,
Don't insult me for providing this service.
There are community rules and automated anti-spam controls, but no thought police here.
$NAMO
Another useful little indicator for daily glances. Worth putting in one's toolbox. $NAMO shows net advances in the NASDAQ, the divergences of which are illustrated against the index itself. FWIW.
http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_scho...
Re: 2nd_ave
bbarberayr,
Possibly he's taking a breather during this time when seasoned traders of long experience say this market is puzzling. Bill said it only a few days ago and I've read a couple others since.
With the low volume and a few $ billion still able to "rescue" a down day it seems a prudent thing to do.
I'm mostly cash and waiting for some direction for reasons other than ST spec.
Eventually I expect to buy a few value companies in those things which junk dollars will boost for a long time to come.
"God grant me patience... NOW!"
Grym ;-)