CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
[7:00am ET] Good morning.
“…the continuing sell-off in Crude Oil and Precious Metals has been muted. Getting smashed, yes, but only a fraction of what could be the situation today.”
Two hours later you started to see what I already saw was in the works yesterday morning at 7 am ET.
Unfortunately, most people are being mesmerized by story-tellers today and they cannot see the facts, which were that the speculators had over-sold the US Dollar in the extreme in order to gamble on commodities, all this in the face of an economy that doesn’t need them. But the story-tellers are trying to force shortages in order to create parabolic price moves. On the other hand, there are monetary authorities all around the world, not just in the US, that are taking action to stop this nonsense.
So what happened yesterday was that the European Central Bank head simply opined that it was time the US monetary authorities took control of their situation, and that caused a breakdown in the Euro, Pound, and the Dollars of Canada, Australia and New Zealand, among other world currencies. That let a lot of air out of the commodities balloon. Whether there is more to come, we’ll just have to wait and see.
Yesterday there were many commodities that got smashed – not just silver. Crude Oil, which is a much bigger market, was down as much, and without the tightening of margin requirements at the exchanges. So, let’s stop with the silver story already.
Why silver? It happened because it was planned to happen by you know who. A collective of manipulators and sycophant newsletter writers who attend the same cheerleading meetings they call investment conferences have simply seized on the fact that maybe 50% of the world’s tiny silver production versus maybe ten percent of the much larger gold production (value wise) is needed for economic reasons in the manufacturing of industrial goods. So, just because it’s easier to engineer a supply-demand imbalance in silver, these people are trying to make it happen.
Unlike the Hunt Brothers 30 years ago, these people are using your money and your mind to accomplish their goal. On the other side, the regulators are telling you ‘Don’t be so stupid! Open your eyes to the whole commodities market and the forex market.’
In the past few years, in the face of severe issues in the financial markets, the US Congress has put on public meetings where the leaders of various industries like banking and oil & gas have been questioned. It’s time that Congress gets to the bottom of this silver market charade.
This morning, there appears to be a rebound of sorts in European equity markets as the major bank and mining company stocks are up a bit. Silver and copper futures are still down a bit – below 35 and 4 respectively – and Crude Oil is not strong – still around 98 – but the broad equity market indexes and the other precious metals are showing a probable lift to start the morning. However, all bets are off this morning until after the US national jobs report for April is released by the Dept of Commerce at 8:30am ET. If the jobs data is impressive – more jobs and lower unemployment – traders will figure that the Fed will have no reason to carry on their quantitative easing program, and that will lead to a firmer US Dollar and continuing sell-off (for now anyway) of commodities that are priced in Dollars.
This will be another interesting day in capital markets. Have a good one.
Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.
| Symbol | Name | Last Trade | Change | Related Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^ATX | ATX | 2,761.00 |
 18.50 (0.67%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^BFX | BEL-20 | 2,684.21 |
 9.53 (0.35%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FCHI | CAC 40 | 4,018.91 |
14.04 (0.35%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^GDAXI | DAX | 7,418.83 |
41.87 (0.57%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^AEX | AEX General | 354.79 |
0.03 (0.01%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^OSEAX | OSE All Share | 481.71 |
2.43 (0.50%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SMSI | Madrid General | N/A | 0.00 (0.00%) | Chart, More |
| ^OMXSPI | Stockholm General | 367.30 |
0.03 (0.01%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SSMI | Swiss Market | 6,493.13 |
43.10 (0.67%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FTSE | FTSE 100 | 5,900.76 |
19.22 (0.32%) |
Components, Chart, More |
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL
The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.
Enjoy your day.
Cara on Trends & Cycles
Vad's Catch of the Day
Kaimu's Sound Money
by Stephen Wellman
It’s been a very busy week for me with Mothers Day madness on top of construction stuff plus moving funds around out of precious metal stocks and commodities. I can only say for now that it will be a very temporary move. It looks as if some buying ops are coming into the market as I type.
The rapid fire regulation of PM prices via margin “magic” that begets margin calls would not be tolerated by the likes of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan on their own interests. In fact you saw how banks reacted when they were in trouble back in 2007/2008. They went crying to the US Treasury to hand them “reset money” (aka; bailout) and then they mandated NO SHORTING BANK STOCKS when they were down and out. Not to mention these high powered banks even got Warren Buffet in their bed with them! I hope Warren made Lloyd wear a condom. … It’s all a one sided deal soaked in “opium” OPM (Other Peoples Money). There’s still plenty of sheep to be fleeced but after the baby-boomers have gone through the inherited wealth of their parents then I am quite sure the “opium” high will be gone. Indeed there is no “price discovery” left in futures. I see the volatility as a sign of impending collapse since the Fed Funds Rate relative to real rates are on a lower high decent form the 1980s when Volcker went all out with 20% public debt bribes. What are Fed Fund Rates other than bribes? The corrupt conspiracy between the US Treasury and Wall Street lives on …
Meanwhile, as all eyes are on gold, silver and oil here is what the US Treasury has been up to. You guessed it …more DEBT … more SPENDING! What else is new as the LIABILITY BUBLLE makes the silver bubble look like a flat line!
ONLY $11.8BIL MORE
Until the US PUBLIC DEBT CEILING is hit … You would not know it by the media love affair with all things Bin Laden. That had to be the most costly “hit” ever in human history! Ten years plus and $1TRIL later!
As of Wednesday, May 5th, here it is only $11.8BIL more …
No more debt gets issued; it’s the US Treasury’s credit card limit. They could issue IOUs like California though or they could work the non-marketable debt magic, yet this limit forces the US Congress to set a new debt limit and the World will be watching. Will the US Congress go the austerity route like so many other countries in the Third World and the EU or will it be business as usual and move up another $3TRIL?
Ok look here is why we are so close. On Monday, May 2nd, the US PUBLIC DEBT got a $33BIL boost then another $11BIL shot on Tuesday!
Plus more US DEBT was issued on Monday; some $105BIL in marketable Notes also $407MIL in TIPS plus a $5MIL adjustment to Regular Series Bills. The last column shows you how much US DEBT the US Treasury has issued YTD for FY2011. I count over $4.75TRIL USD worth of Treasuries.
Please note on the “redemption” side not much redeeming of longer term Treasuries like Notes and Bonds, but lots of short term Regular Series redeeming going on.
Yet the longer term debt issues out paced even the short term redemptions and that is why we have this. Some $760BIL (TARP+) in added US PUBLIC DEBT for our kids and their kids top file BK on!
Lots of debt days lately. Usually debt is only issued on every Thursday, but this got issued on last Friday, April 29th.
Then of course all the debt listed above, some $105BIL got issued on Monday and so this Thursday more debt will get issued as usual, unless the debt limit comes into play.
As I study the March 4th, Wednesday, US Treasury Statement I see that the US Treasury has collected a total of $917.8BIL in net tax revenues for YTD FY2011 to fund $2.7TRIL in net outlays for FY2011. In order to just break even with net outlays tax revenues would have to increase 300% from current levels. Anyone here want to pay 300% more in taxes next year? I didn’t think so.
Now I am going to give you a real mind boggler that will show you just how insignificant tax revenues have become when you introduce “net debt” into the equation. Here how much total net debt (US PUBLIC DEBT) was added for YTD FY2011 …
Now if the USA wants to really pay off its debt and still keep spending levels the same, in other words, true “PAY AS YOU GO”, then we need to subtract the “Net Change in Public Debt” of $772BIL from net tax revenues of $917.8BIL. What I get is $145.8BIL left over to spend on entitlements and debt service. Under that revelation the US Treasury would have to raise tax revenues by 1800% to cover current net outlays. You can see by this exercise that the USA will never pay off the current US PUBLIC DEBT of near $14.3TRIL. It is mathematically and politically impossible. No American would stand for it not even Ron Paul! Yet somehow every US citizen is expected to live within his or her means. Debt, especially sovereign debt, is dangerous stuff. But hey we have our AAA on negative watch over at the S&P …
UNIQUE TERRORISM
From the prosecutor, US Attorney, Anne M Tompkins … She defines a new and “unique” form of terrorism that effects the “economic stability of this country”.
"Attempts to undermine the legitimate currency of this country are simply a unique form of domestic terrorism," U.S. Attorney Tompkins said in announcing the verdict. "While these forms of anti-government activities do not involve violence, they are every bit as insidious and represent a clear and present danger to the economic stability of this country," she added. "We are determined to meet these threats through infiltration, disruption, and dismantling of organizations which seek to challenge the legitimacy of our democratic form of government."
How many here after reading the above quote was thinking of people like Lloyd Blankefein and Jamie Dimon CEOs of banks like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan and Bank America and Citibank? How many of you thought of the credit crash of 2007 and all the derivatives from real estate based on SubPrime loans? Loans are “money” and they are “money supply”. Was there a “clear and present danger” then?
The above quote from the US Attorney was not for Lloyd Blankefein or Jamie Dimon, but for Mr. Von NotHaus who was the founder of the Liberty Silver Dollar upon his conviction and sentencing to 15 years of prison. Our own government in my mind convicted the wrong UNIQUE TERRORIST … For if our government considers Mr. Von NotHaus a terrorist then why not every major CEO of the banks that played the derivatives hoax and the FRN scam?
SELLERS BUY DEBT
When you sell gold or silver jewelry (lucky if it is 18k) and then take your debt derivative USD from the sale and then use it to purchase more debt, like say a monthly mortgage payment or car payment, you are officially in the debt attrition game that the US FED wants you in. The more debt you are weighed down with, whether sovereign debt as a citizen or personal debt, the more you are controlled. The less Freedom you have the better for the political and monetary monopolies that rule America. When you assume debt you give up more Freedom because generally you have to work to repay that debt or at least run risk of collateral or homelessness. When you spend more of your time working to repay your debt, you have less time for yourself and your family. Granted some people prefer it that way, but then where is quality of life? Where is any quality or “value” derived from that equation?
Gold Rush II: It's sell, sell, sell as prices hit record high, but this time it's because America's broke!
By Daily Mail Reporter
23rd April 2011
GOLD RUSH, 2011
Across the U.S. people are heading to pawn shops and jewellery stores with gold necklaces, gold coins and oversized hoopy earrings.
But it also means pawn shop owners are having to deal with the 'shame' factor. Brian Weinberg, owner of Parkway Gold in Alpharetta, Georgia, said: 'I don't want to use "ashamed," but it's not a happy situation. The economy's bad. People need money.'
Irma and George Evearts, owners of Evearts Gallery in Haddonfield, New Jersey, say some customers don't want to talk in front of others, so they end up going to a private room in the back. 'People come in for all reasons.'
Steven Bumb, part owner of Santa Cruz Pawn, said: 'A lot of people don't want to sell their jewellery, but they have to.
'It's their monthly mortgage payment or whatever the case is ... We hear a lot of sad stories.'
Another growing feature of the gold market is the rise of gold parties.
Typically, the host invites friends to attend with their wares. A Licensed dealers turn up with scales, and the guests leave with cash.
OPPOSITES ATTRACT
The question is “What?” … As prices of residential homes plummet some 40% off their highs down to the median US home price of $160,000 there is another real estate market that is just now heating up. Can you guess? Let me spell it for you … F-A-R-M!!! Here is a chart to show the new FARM trend …
Is this FarmPrime? Barney? Should we start up Farmie Moe to add to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac?
However, unlike the SubPrime crowd farmers have even less debt than they did back in the last farmland boom in the 1970s; in fact 1/3 less debt. Add in the tighter bank loan requirements and the lack of farmland derivatives, the SubPrime rocket fuel for fraud. How many janitors want to farm? That means that farmland prices are not so much driven by land speculation and “free loans” as it is by commodity prices. All this amounts to is that a lot of money in the system is seeking a return … seeking “value”. That is the one quality of money that a USD lacks.
This came from a auctioneer at one of the farmland auctions in Iowa:
“If you look from the beginning of farming in the United States to now, the long-term trend has been up,” he said. “There will be market fluctuations where it will go down. But in 10 years, I won’t be surprised if our $10,000 land is $20,000.”
Sounds familiar to me …
Here we have a chart (below) showing the perils of owning “debt based” assets. This shows that whenever you apply excessive debt to an asset it soon becomes a liability.
Wow … why hasn’t the real estate bubble reflated? Hey, all you unemployed, homeless, food stamp ex-mortgage holders why aren’t you guys lining up at the subdivision model homes with your ZERO DOWN? Hey, unemployed grads with huge student loans get your butts off Mom and Dad’s sofa! Hurry up there’s lots of McMansions sitting there empty just waiting for you to get into more debt! Yow, who can turn down free debt in America? It’s unreal …
It seems debt counterparties are not just limited to the good ole USA and those benevolent Federal Reserve banks that proliferate the debt landscape from Hawaii to New York. Of course the EU and Europe are no strangers to debt and monetary crisis.
Those Europeans love debt … Here is a debt schematic showing all those lovely EU counterparties … Look at all those billions that add to trillions. GO EU!! Who owes who what? Man, you need a PhD in Debtonomics to figure it all out.
I will leave you with these two charts … Somehow the recent silver chart, seen here below, was in a bubble.
And it corrected as sooner or later all bubbles do, but this chart, below, is not in a bubble even as we hear hints from the US Congress that they want to extend our US Debt limit another $2TRIL more! This is the tip of the iceberg showing the LIABILITY BUBBLE …
Will the US Treasury ever get a margin call? Will the US military enforce a NO PAY US DEBT RULE?
As I predicted a few months ago I believe the minimum Congress needs to raise the debt ceiling would be $2.5TRIL. Still study the LIABILITY BUBBLE chart and note how long those “one year” bars have gotten since the year 2000. Then look at all those years we were on the gold standard prior to 1971. Notice a difference? Even the years during WW2 are dwarfed by the year 2010; still, look what WW2 and the Marshall Plan did to US Debt.
But, hey, there is no “bubble”! As we all know there has never been a time in human history when the USA has defaulted on its debt, right Tim? The past three years those “debt bars” have been averaging $1.6TRIL per year. How many GLDs and COMEXs could you buy with $1.6TRIL every year? And yet we can hear all day long about gold and silver “bubbles” while we stare at this debt chart with a straight face. QE any one?
The bubble chart above is just the tip of the iceberg for future generations in America as it does not include the many more trillions of unfunded liabilities and guarantees and promises made by the US Congress in order to retain their two party political monopoly status.
The US PUBLIC DEBT is pure insanity … but its not a bubble damn it!
Then what is it?
It’s, uh, it’s just debt is all and America is entitled to unlimited debt and AAA. We have the biggest military and we saved the World twice! Three times if you count Bin Laden’s recent death …
The question should not be about policing the World and Empire, but it should be … “Can our kids afford it?” What will be our legacy as voting American adults? Or is there such a thing any more? Are we just “shooting elephants” now?
“What is needed to prevent any further credit expansion is to place the banking business under the general rules of commercial and civil laws compelling every individual and firm to fulfill all obligations in full compliance with the terms of the contract.” – Ludwig Von Mises, Human Action, 1933
“The duty of government is to leave commerce to its own capital and credit as well as all other branches of business, protecting all in their legal pursuits, granting exclusive privileges to none.” – Andrew Jackson
“You want 21 percent risk free? Pay off your credit cards.” – Andrew Tobias
“A check or credit card, a Gucci bag strap, anything of value will do. Give as you live.” – Jesse Jackson
“Corrupt money corrupts society.” - Kaimu
CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Good evening. Patrick here.
Job growth came in above estimates this morning driving equity futures up close to +1%, but a suddenly strong US Dollar (DXY+0.90%) quickly undermined the stock market rally, traders scrambling to exit “risk-on” trades.
When it was all said and done the broad market finished about where it ended yesterday, a fractional gain in the cash market (S&P+0.30%) with e-mini futures closely unchanged.
Precious metals (SLV+3.2%; GLD+1.60%) regained a bit of their losses over the past few days but the rally was neither impulsive nor impressive, simply a mild bounce after the price destruction of the past week.
Miners (GDX-0.02%) couldn’t even hold their opening gains despite the bounce up in gold, all and all a pretty pathetic performance by the sector. Until miners start displaying some relative strength to the underlying metal it is hard to envision the stocks regaining their former luster.
The commodity love affair might have come to an end at least in the short term as much technical damage has been incurred.
Silver has only been correcting for a week – recall the average length of the declines has been closer to four weeks, so one would expect rallies to falter for the next few weeks. The copper (JJC-0.25%) chart looks like one big rounding top, and crude oil (USO-0.89%) has dropped like a rock over -10% from its peak.
Speaking of uninspiring the action Mother Merrill (BAC+0.01%) and Granny Goldman (GS-0.21%) leave a lot to be desired; hard to imagine a healthy equity market if these two financial titans break horizontal support.
The S&P teeters just under initial support; breaking yesterday’s low paves the way for a decline down towards 1300. Bulls are hoping the strong action in the bellwether semiconductor space (SMH+0.31%) translates into stronger economic growth and a continuation of the bull market. No doubt the two big buyouts – TXN buying NSM and AMAT scooping up VSEA – at substantial premiums over market value (70% and 50%) means industry insiders see substantial value in the space.
A lot of crosscurrents, the majority probably favoring a retrenchment in equity prices in the near term.
How about just a retrenchment in gas prices? Cost me 110 dollars to fill up the family SUV this week – hardly comforting the Bearded One thinks inflation is “benign” and “transitory.”
Have a great weekend, give mom a great big hug and tell her how much you love her.
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Comments
Econoday Today
Morning Report
Thank you for that superb assessment and insight Bill.
2 Targets
SLV : http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=1...
SPX: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=10&id=p88070283809&a=222186918
Cara 100 Ratings Changes For POMO Friday
Good morning.
5-7 Billion Dollar POMO Injection Today.
------
8:30 - Nonfarm Payrolls
8:30 - Unemployment Rate
8:30 - Hourly Earnings/Average Workweek
15:00 - Consumer Credit
------
APA - PT Lifted from $130 to $150 @ Oppenheimer. Outperform
------
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~ George Carlin
*(US) US APR CHANGE IN
*(US) US APR CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: 244K V 185KE;
CHANGE IN PRIVATE PAYROLLS: 268K V 200KE
- Change in Manufacturing: 29K v 20Ke
- Birth-Death Adjustment: +175K v +117K prior
- Prior Change in Nonfarm Payrolls revised higher from +216K to +221K
- Prior Change in Private Payrolls revised higher from +230K to +231K
- Prior Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: revised higher from +17K to +22K
*(US) APR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 9.0% V 8.8%E
*(US) APR AVG HOURLY EARNING M/M: 0.1% V 0.2%E; AVG WEEKLY HOURS:34.3 V 34.3E
- Prior Avg Hourly Earning MoM revised higher from 0.0% to 0.2%
Don't Dare to Raise Prices in China
{China’s pricing authority has fined consumer product giant Unilever 2 million yuan ($308,000) for saying it might increase prices of some for products in China.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), a powerful central planning agency, said in a statement on Friday that comments by Unilever officials about possible price rises had “intensified inflationary expectations among consumers” and “seriously distorted market order”.
Unilever and Procter & Gamble had said they planned to raise detergent and soap prices in April, citing soaring raw materials costs. But the increases were not carried out because the pricing authority intervened after news of the plan led to panic buying by consumers.
The government said the high-profile announcement had violated pricing regulations.
Consumer price inflation hit a 32-month high of 5.4 percent in the year to March. Beijing has put controlling inflation at the top its economic agenda this year.}
Full CNBC post: http://www.cnbc.com/id/42926064
CNBC’s Santelli reports Goldman buying Treasury puts
This was before the release.
Re: Morning Report
second that johnny. bill's silver analysis was clear and interesting.
thankyou bill / thank your associates for the valuable lessons found here at the caracommunity.
Jim Rogers: UK will soon need EU bailout
http://bit.ly/lj6SMY
In an interview with CNBC. (For amusement value only.)
Cara 100 Update
COST - estimates, target were raised at Morgan Stanley. Shares now seen reaching $90. Estimates also were increased, with traffic improving and food inflation rising, Morgan Stanley said. Overweight rating.
GOOG - Google initiated with a Buy at Capstone. Target $626
Downtrend started?
No denial from most a downtrend of some sort has started in the commodity markets and likely the stock market. The JPM's and other banksters who ramped it up will likely ramp it down to take profits. The surprise positive unemployment number (so called) is now what will continue the downtrend, since no more QE3 is justified, bonds sell off, and a stronger dollar continues, as Bill alluded. It may be sell the blip instead of buy the dip in the month of May, ha.
Euro (Moribund Feline Bounce)
Supposedly that was macro funds who were short covering.
AUD FIRE
ALOHA!!
It is interesting that today the AUD is rising faster than the USD was even when the POG and POS were in major crash mode the past couple days! What's up Down Under? So the AUD rallies today up 1.74% on a Aussie POG drop of $8AUD. What did the USD rally on a $80 POG drop? In the past the USD would have run up much higher on such large POG/POS and oil/commodity drops.
Reading some of the "fake news" financial headlines yesterday I had to laugh about a couple I saw on Yahoo Finance that read, "Oil Falls Sharply Below $100". Wow, its at $99. As I fill up at the pump yesterday the price was $4.59. Then another Oil headline read "Oil Down On Weak Economy". Ben?
What's the real "safe haven" nowadays? It won't be debt, so that leaves out every global currency ...
Re: AUD FIRE
Could it be that the Australian dollar is backed by gold (and other things) which are in the ground?
Re: AUD FIRE
What's the real "safe haven" nowadays?
that's the question! I've been asking that and posting here the only reasoning I can come up with are value stocks. Land= taxes you have little control over. I can choose when to sell stocks... I bought a little TTM the other day, added little as I can to my CGR, LEI, TLR, CAMP, GERN, PMV - not exactly household names but all the same I believe long term values. I guess I could run but that's not been a good answer in the past. I'm all ears, reading Bill, you and others - trying to hang in there and be the investor - done with day trading tricks for a while... even when I'm right my timing is wrong...
regards,
Earl
Cara 100 Update (Final)
CSCO - estimates were cut at Morgan Stanley through 2013. Demand remains muted and the company is facing increased competition, Morgan Stanley. Equal-weight rating.
One leaks to Rupert at one's peril !
“SafeHouse's only real similarity to Wikileaks is that both benefit megalomaniacal Australians.”
http://gawker.com/#!5799112/dont-leak-to-the-wall-street-journals-new-wikileaks-knockoff
Scummy Rupert ….
Re: AUD FIRE
kaimu -
Canadian buck is lifting too. Interesting to see PSLV (+5.86%) and SLW (+3.04%) on the move while Comex spot silver is essentially flat lining. Looks as if the little retail investor is getting wise to the paper bullion manipulators by loading up on redeemable bars and silver streaming stock.
It's a Micky D job market economy (62k or a quarter of those new jobs reported today came from McDonald's) with every 2 cents of that roughly $3.25 (U.S.) to $5.00 (Uruguay) Big Mac inflating burger going to those minimum wagers living in their parent's basement or under bridges. Ronald McDonald is morphing into The Joker! FUBAR.
Dipping the toe in junior miners
inadvertently bought LEX.TO yesterday at .71 as those low ball offers I put in a month ago are now being hit. Not so "low ball" anymore :)
holding 1k and watching Uncle Buck for the next clue. 50% off from December highs is the sort of discount I like.
Bought 1k of PMV.V at .50 as well. Another 50% sale.
This sort of shopping gets my pulse going. I think I begin to understand my wife hunting for sales... :)
12% portfolio allocation
edit: GIX.TO at .475 - 17% allocation.
Re: AUD FIRE
ALOHA!!
... but all the same I believe long term values ...
I first believed back in 2001 that there was this tug-o-war between real money, gold, and the FRN, USD. Good and Evil! An epic battle between the little guys and the US FED banking cartel that controls money(debt) in America.
Now I have modified that epic monetary struggle to encompass a more HUMAN ACTION basal human need, which is just plain old "value". There is a monetary value void, which goes to long term store of value. The USD won a battle the past couple days(of sorts as I am not impressed at all)but it has long since lost the War. No citizen will sit idly by and watch his accumulated lifetime wealth as represented by a debt derived USD dwindle to nothing. This to me is the HUMAN ACTION that cannot be won by any government or central bank hubris. Russians sought "value" in the black market during the USSR reign, not in rubles. Americans would be no different under such a corrupt regime. Corrupt money corrupts society ... AAA on negative watch or not!
My Russian ex-boss during my electrical contracting days told me about how he would wait four hours during the USSR days in snow just to trade rubles for four rotten oranges from Israel. He left the USSR(Kiev)and went to Israel then to Philadelphia. He said when he went in his first US super market and walked into the produce section he cried. Russians have seen some really tough times! Moscow On The Hudson ...
Re: AUD FIRE
The safest haven is which you control the outcome as much as possible. And minimal dependence on social programs, laws, hand outs, prices, etc. I know it cannot be 100% eliminated. But minimizing outside influence in your family's lives from outside enemies.
becoming as self sufficient as possible is the safest haven. And become adept at adapting to changing conditions to survive.
68,294,229,502,717.3% annualized return
I remember reading about this put buyer on April 11th who bought $1 million in SLV $25 July puts. He/She did good!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/88-slv-shares-out...
MOSCOW ON THE HUDSON
ALOHA!!
One of my favorite movies and this is one of my favorite parts ...
The pursuit of happiness ...
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZL-Up0ej8Vo
Human Action in action ...
Re: AUD FIRE
interesting story. If $USD has lost value and is doomed to go lower medium term one is forced to ask what these commodities we trade will be worth in a few years. People think commodities and ag futures are too high now...
USD - Lines in the football field have been painted
http://uleak.it/?256
I would be shocked if it can get back to 121
I would not be shocked if it got back up to the higher declining trend line
I would not be shocked if it traded in the range of the declining channel
I would not be shocked if it broke support of lower trend line
Re: AUD FIRE
Good morning, Earl... been adding ' tlr '.. if a ' correction ' in gold is appx. 20%, then perhaps now is the time to start buying... I agree with Rob McEwen that gold will be $ 5000 in the not to distant future.. Flecks favorite quote ' In a fiat economy, all roads lead to inflation ' is ever so true... So, maybe I'm a little early, but then again, time is relative for long positions... I have 65% cash parked on the side lines, adjusting as things change.. if TLR does bump the .80 mark, I will be there.,,, best to you, baz.
Re: USD - Lines in the football field have been painted
I expect it will bottom somewhere at the 71-73 range. However, dollar bottoming is never V-shaped and easy. It took a lot of time in 2008 to bottom. Even the fall of 2009 and 2010 bottoms were very difficult with a lot of zigzags and lower lows with bullish divergence (I remember vividly as I was trying to catch the reversal and was stopped a few times).
We are not there yet. The huge spike yesterday was an anomaly and will be sold. The trend is still down.
FD: short UUP.
Re: 68,294,229,502,717.3% annualized return
Nice math. Too bad it's as meaningless as it gets. But when sensational headline is needed, anything goes.
Taking a single trade and projecting it to annual result, oldest trick in the book of promotion. We just finished three trades each of which took about 10 min and brought 30 cents move. Anyone who wants to do a math is welcome to use those % and minutes and turn them into annualized return - it will beat that headline handily, lol.
Stay critical of those sensations
Divorce
I guess I was falling in love with my silver holdings and began to realize that this is not likely a temporary correction, but more like a falling knife.
So decided to hang on to my healthy profits from so far in the year and disposed of all shares and also the puts before premiums fall too much.
If silver drops enough I may get back in, but with the metal ETF's.
I have had enough of the silver miners with all their crazy behaviour and manipulation.
Still hanging in with a little bit of GG & KGC with a few puts to save me from some crazy drops. Sleep much better at night with that insurance, although it usually costs more than its worth.
Bought BHP @ 2435p
Nice bounce in oil. Copper steady.
stockman: 8 must-see minutes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-wekH6ITNg&feature...
He comes out in favor of a transaction tax on trading.
Jock
VIX and TLT reversing
I think risk trades will go up for a while before next shorting opportunity.
Especially if dollar goes down some.
FD: long EWY calls (still intact upward trend). Long VXX puts. long UPP puts. Some positions in miners.
Re: stockman: 8 must-see minutes
I watched... and couldn't help but notice that he omitted the main question: who is going to pay that tax? Individual investors, retail traders, anyone who manages his or her portfolio, sure... anyone else? But of course - whose money is being managed by entities he wants to tax? Pension funds, 401K, all kinds of funds in which folks from all walks of life are invested. Any doubt that tax will be passed on them? Once again savers are being punished. Good going.
Re: AUD FIRE
Good morning Baz,
In a fiat economy, all roads lead to inflation ' is ever so true! I ask myself; since the dollar was created has its valve ever gone up for more then a short time? Not really! I’m about to move this to the garage and work on some children’s stools my wife's been wanting me to build for some time. I could get used to this Fidelity penalty box issue – doing me a favor… Interesting commentary today on ETF’s settlement issues & systemic risk – the risk is in market manipulators like Soros dumping all his silver in a short amount of time; well within his right but then there is the dog pile mentality. This remindes me of that guy holding a sign on the street outside wall street, Jump F****** - my thoughts exactly. I was so proud of him…
Take care
Earl
The oil bounce is over
The USD is starting to get stronger. The day traders who bought this bounce are going to get a rude or should I say crude awakening. What Obama wants is what he gets, and he wants the price of gasoline lower, so the dollar will go higher.
Greece threathens to leave Euro area – Der Spiegel
Update: EU Finance Ministers To Meet Fri Evening On Greece
Re: The oil bounce is over
jimddavis -
"The USD is starting to get stronger. The day traders who bought this bounce are going to get a rude or should I say crude awakening. What Obama wants is what he gets, and he wants the price of gasoline lower, so the dollar will go higher."
Obama ordered Osama's removal which will undoubtably add to the chaos in North Africa and the Middle East. That means oil goes up ... way up. The Fed has implicitly outlined its plan to lower the dollar in a controlled fashion (no hyperinflation) in order to pay the runaway public debt. So, I'm not following your logic. When did Obama read a telepromter stating he wants the price of gasoline lower? I missed that.
Cheers.
Re: stockman: 8 must-see minutes
Vad -
Well over 50% of trading volume is high-frequency traders. Then there are the banks, hedge funds, and institutions. I imagine home-gamers trade a very small % of total, and would therefore pay a small % of such a tax.
Stockman's main points are that reform of the existing tax code is impossible (given the strength of lobbies) and that new revenues are an essential part of the fiscal solution.
The alleged $39B of cutting agreed by Congress is tiny on its face, and actually (after fraud removal) amounts to some $5B only !
As former US budget director, Stockman DOES know about the realities of cost-cutting and tax reform. I was struck by his conclusion that only a bond market crash, followed by a major new tax could cut the deficit significantly.
After QE finishes in June, he expects the fireworks to begin ...
(GR) Greece could consider
(GR) Greece could consider leaving the Eurozone and reintroducing its own currency; EC calls emergency meeting tonight - German press citing German govt sources
- Eurozone Fin Mins discussing a possible debt restructuring at a highly confidential meeting in Luxembourg Friday; sources say German officials aim to do whatever is possible to prevent Greece from leaving the EMU. German delegation will bring an internal paper to the meeting that warns of dire consequence of Greece leaving the EMU.
- Follow up 12:00ET: EU's Juncker's spokesperson denies German press report of an emergency meeting on Greece tonight
EU's Juncker's spokesperson denies German press report of an emergency meeting on Greece tonight - financial press
- Follow Up: Austria Fin Min calls a Euro zone breakup 'unthinkable.'
- France Fin Min can neither confirm or deny report from the German press on emergeny meeting on Greece.
Re: The oil bounce is over
Dr. Strangelove,
Obama wants elected period. He will not get elected with the price of gasoline at $5-$6. My theory is the current administration is smart enough to know they must lower the price of gasoline to get re-elected. The USA will absolutely revolt at $5-$6 gasoline against all politicians. However, he will continue to raise the price once again after he is elected. I see crude at $75 by this time next year, right before the fall election in 2012.
Re: stockman: 8 must-see minutes
"Well over 50% of trading volume is high-frequency traders. Then there are the banks, hedge funds, and institutions. I imagine home-gamers trade a very small % of total, and would therefore pay a small % of such a tax."
Not really. We already did this math when this tax was discussed a while ago. Individual traders will be wiped out, pure and simple. The tax established as % of transaction cost obliterates their profit. Do tell me what is the point of sending today's profitable traders supporting themselves and their families and paying their share of taxes to the unemployment line?
Nor is there much sense in taxing HFT into the ground. You do that, you eliminate them, your tax base disappeared - what was the point, really? Just to get rid of them? What does it have to do with using tax to fix the financial situation?
And then of course all those who get hit by passing the tax on them... by those same "banks, hedge funds, and institutions" you listed. It's your and your neighbor and your co-worker's money they manage, remember? Thus, you pay the cost of the service - that same cost that got increased by this tax.
Sorry, can't agree with this tax being a good thing for anyone.
Re: Greece - damage control mode
- Follow Up; Germany Govt source claims there are no plans for Greece to leave the EMU
- Follow Up: Slovak Fin Min notes is unaware of any meeting on Friday
- Eurogroup spokesperson comments that EMU ministers are not meeting today or over the weekend
LOL
Re: (GR) Greece could consider
The Germans are terrified about what would happen to their banks if Greece decides to flip them the bird - they'd have to choose between bailing them out, or letting them fail. Additionally, the ECB is still the designated bagholder for all that Greek debt they bought in a failed attempt to keep those bonds from crashing. No can kicking or extending + pretending possible when a nation actually defaults.
Of course the Greek banks and pension funds won't fare well if a default occurs, but the choice might be between a lifetime of national debt slavery to German banks (after selling off all the assets the Greek government owns), or throwing the Greek banks and pension funds under the bus.
Too soon to tell if it actually will happen now. I think the odds are against it. I predict another mad round of attempted can-kicking, but I'm not sure what form it could take. Perhaps a "soft restructuring" such as extending the debt forward say 15 years and reducing interest payments to a nominal 2-3%.
This should be a VERY interesting weekend.
Buck now up to 74.66, next resistance level around 74.80 - 75. Gold off $10, silver off a much bigger $1.50.
Got dollars? :)
Re: Greece - damage control mode 2
(GR) Senior Greek central bank official: Denying speculation of Greece potentially leaving the Eurozone; Der Spiegel report on Greece leaving EU is "ridiculous"
Re: stockman: 8 must-see minutes
Stockman has been getting a lot of airtime lately. Who does he work for? Don't get me wrong, he makes sense to me, but why is he spending all this time & energy spreading this message, and why is the media giving him all this free airtime?
Is he running for something? We'll find out eventually, I think.
Re: Greece - damage control mode 3
(EU) Some ministers are visiting Luxembourg to discuss Portugal, Greece, and ECB succession, yet it is not an emergency regarding Greece - financial press citing sources
- Follow up: IMF has no comment on report about Greece in Germany press
Like someone poked an anthill...
Re: The oil bounce is over
jimddavis -
"Obama wants elected period. He will not get elected with the price of gasoline at $5-$6."
Okay, but how will he lower the price? He can dump WTC reserves into the market but Brent is not his to manipulate. Similar to Comex paper games vs. physical commodities.
Earl,
check this ' Fails to deliver ' ( naked shorts ) on ' tlr ' .. click ' Dump Fails '.. end of March is interesting... also, look at ' gern ', end of March... level playing field ?? > http://failstodeliver.com/default2.aspx
Got Gold?....
“China is out to have more gold than America, and Russia is aspiring to the same,” McEwen said yesterday in an interview at a Bloomberg Link conference in New York. “When you have debt, you don’t have a lot of flexibility. China wants to show its currency has more backing than the U.S.”
This from a April 29th Bloomberg article.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-29/gold-buyi...
Greece to exit the EU?
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,...
May be what's causing capital flows into the Aussie dollar today. If it happens, it would make the euro stronger and put another dent in the USD.
Emergency meeting tonight.
Holding my Swissy here.
Time to buy junior silver miners
Note something, folks: the junior silver miners (FVI.TO, IPT.V, ECU.TO, GPR, etc.) had a VERY strong bounce this morning, when SLV bounced just a little, and these miners were flat all week as silver was collapsing. NOW could be the last chance to buy them -- looks like they don't have much downside left if silver continues its descent, but they have a TON of upside when silver finally bounces. As I mentioned before, my personal favorite is ECU.TO (ECUXF), which is the most undervalued in this Junior Production class (according to http://www.goldminerpulse.com/silver-mining-valuat...) and has several important announcements in the pipeline that will totally change the perception of this company (drill results for the massive high-grade sulphide deposit in a few weeks, an economic feasibility study this summer).
Insiders Own a Majority Stake in These Large-Cap Stocks Now
Very interesting to see how many of the humongous brokerages and other companies that are primarily owned by insiders.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Insiders-Own-Majorit...
Insiders Own a Majority Stake in These Large-Cap Stocks Now
Very interesting to see how many of the humongous brokerages and other companies that are primarily owned by insiders.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Insiders-Own-Majorit...
Re: Greece - damage control mode 4
(GR) Greece Finance Ministry Statement further denies press speculation Greece is considering leaving EMU
Couple more denials left till they leave EMU?
Re: Greece - damage control mode 4
Nonsense Vad, unsustainable situations can be sustained forever in a triumph of hope over common sense.
Historical reference: England repeatedly denied that it would leave the gold standard for several years after the 1929 crash, even as gold was leaving the country by the ton. Of course once they ran out of gold, they left the gold standard and floated the pound, surprising everyone except the well-connected few. Overnight holders of pound sterling lost 30% of their net worth. And sterling was the reserve currency back then.
Isn't history fun?
Greek tragedy continuing
(GR) German Finance Ministry's Schaeuble and Asmussen are attending the "crisis meeting" in Luxembough - financial press citing German coalition govt source
What a saga today
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
Greece has nearly all of its reserves in gold. It also has a wealthy diaspora that will work wonders in the In/Export business.
Greece can afford to default and restructure their economy by re-introducing the Drachma. I am sure they don't need any new EU sponsored infrastructure projects, other than for the "skim".
Re: Earl,
Baz, I've heard of these problems, I'm not entirely aware of the circumstances regarding the 'meaning' but basically my knowledge of this is limited to someone shorts this stock and then failes to buy the stock back when the short is called - a tactic used to drive the stock out of existance - I'm ok with it if your using this to drive a crap theving stock share company out of business, those that are simply in business to sell shares and then go away anyway. But to do this to a lagit company exposes a sadly lazy SEC & company that called the shares... I guess in the long run if a company survives this type of test it's probably going to be ok but it's abusive - that's my general view of naked shorting. Very infantile I know...
thanks
Earl
Unemployment up at 9%; 1/4 million jobs added
That doesn't compute.
Re: VIX and TLT reversing
Oups! Is soon as UUP broke through the 21.3, I got stopped out.
I also liquidated all the options, as things are not developing I planned.
Dollar is way too strong for a regular bounce and there is something behind it. Intervention to prop the dollar and kill commodities speculation?
That would accomplish a few things: lower oil for Obama and US economy, lower commodities good for economy long term, lower stocks (mini crash) to have a support for QE3.
FD: mostly in cash and miners. Thinking about liquidation miners.
Re: stockman: 8 must-see minutes
ALOHA!!
"Stockman's main points are that reform of the existing tax code is impossible (given the strength of lobbies) and that new revenues are an essential part of the fiscal solution."
Its way deeper than that ...
Tax revenues as we all used to know them are DOA ... The proposed "PAY AS YOU GO" that the US Congress talks about instigating ten years from now is a hoax.
This will be in SOUND MONEY, but I just looked at the US Treasury YTD FY2011 and net outlays so far as of March 4th are $2.7TRIL. Total net tax revenues are $917.8BIL. In that scenario tax levels would have to rise 300% just to break even with spending. Any trader tax will be useless, besides who here will volunteer to increase their taxes 300% to make up the $1.8TRIL tax revenue/outlay deficit? No politician on Earth would ever get elected.
Okay ... now lets just add in the "net debt" increase for YTD FY2011, just seven months. Total is an additional $772BIL, so if America is serious about repaying debt and doing a true PAY AS YOU GO then if you subtract net debt from current YTD tax revenues you get $145BIL left over to cover all Congress spending of $2.7TRIL. You would have to raise taxes 1800% to cover the current spending levels and also cover current "net debt" issues as well.
In other words the US DEBT will never be paid back and it does not matter one bit how much taxes are raised and spending is cut. The whole idea that America can balance anything at current spending and US DEBT net increase is absurd to even begin to debate. We have to default to get back to basics. Not even RON PAUL wants to run on that platform!
Todays POMO
This is a very anemic rally for $5-7B POMO. The headlines are attributing the muting of the rally to the Greece rumor. Money down a rat hole.
Re: Greece - damage control mode 4
davefairtex -
"Isn't history fun?" - davefairtex
Yes, especially if you look past your own lifetime.
"History is a catalogue of solutions." - Martin Armstrong
The Fed is the enabler to an alcoholic Congress that's about to put its middle class on skid row.
"The Financial Capital of Europe was migrating to London where it resided until WWI. The peak in the British Empire was 1913 and from there it migrated to NYC, thanks to J.P. Morgan. The U.S. has learned nothing about how to manage an empire, nation, or city state. It spent money like someone who was poor and just won the lottery. After having 76% of the world's gold reserves in 1994 at Bretton Woods, it no longer had enough gold to support the fixed exchange rate system in 1971 ending the gold standard." - Armstrong from 'Passing the Torch'
We're left with three choices: hoard, flee, or speculate.
Cheers.
Re: The oil bounce is over
Obama lowers the gasoline price by raising interest rates. In summary, americans care more about the "current" price of gas than the current price of their 401k. They love their gas guzzlers, I know, I have one, ha.
Trade price
I'm watching S&P 1340 for an up or down pivot. I'm hearing many are watching that level today.
(US) ShadowStats.com comments
(US) ShadowStats.com comments on US April employment data
- Says "In contrast to the 244,000 gain in payrolls, the household (unemployment) survey showed a 190,000 decline in monthly employment".
- Attributes discrepancy to "recasting of seasonal adjustment factors that borrowed seasonally-adjusted jobs from earlier months, where the downside monthly revisions were not published by the BLS, (which) recalculates the monthly seasonal factors each month for payroll employment, going back a number of years, it only publishes revised data for the last two months of reporting".
- Sees Apr U6 index of underemployed rising to 15.9% from 15.7% on adjusted basis, and falling to 15.5% from 16.2% on unadj basis.
- True "SGS-Alternate Unemployment Measure" which includes the long-term (over a year) discouraged workers - excluded in U6 measure: 22.3% v 22.0% in Mar.
Re: Greece threathens to leave Euro area – Der Spiegel
so does that mean its Euro bashing time again?. Euro to parity with Uncle Buck? I'll give Der Spiegel credit for keeping the news reasonably informative and factual. Let's see how CNBC takes up the story.
Re: The oil bounce is over
jimddavis -
You're just blowin' smoke now. Ben Bernanke and the Fed gov'nors make the interest rate decisions. Raising the fed funds rate here will bury us with no chance but for hyperinflation (coming this June as QE ends). They may not care as much about their 401k yet but the discourse here suggests otherwise.
I sold my F250 a month ago.
Cheers.
Re: Greece threathens to leave Euro area – Der Spiegel
Les,
I think it will be downhill all the way from here for the euro.
Re: (US) ShadowStats.com comments
trading on govt published numbers is like betting on numbers in roulette wheel. no control of outcome. and even if your number comes up, they can retroactively change it next month.
950,000 applicants who applied to McDonalds and got turned away
My own personal friends who are skilled, educated and still unemployed
state level income tax revenues suffering
only metrics i need.
your satellite navigation gadget? or is it the police's ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/8480702...
So, who's working for whom?
Re: Greece threathens to leave Euro area – Der Spiegel
Mark H -
"I think it will be downhill all the way from here for the euro."
Why? If one deadbeat sovereign is removed from the EU, doesn't that make the EU more solvent? That's uphill in my book. Soon you'll have Germany, France, and the northern most sovereigns with a powerhouse euro challenging the Chinese for reserve currency status.
Re: (US) ShadowStats.com comments
ALOHA!!
Thanks for that Vad ...
How can we possibly solve our fiscal and employment issues when the way we measure these metrics is so unreliable. It is as if our government is hidding the true state of the economy and our monetary issues in hopes of staying in power longer. Truly how many versions of CPI and Unemployment do we need to measure who has a job and who doesn't and what costs what while your jobless?
In my past SOUND MONEY I mentioned that MIT, not exactly a bastion for dummies, is running their own CPI numbers called the BPP, based on internet prices and the link I showed has CPI running at 1% monthly or 12% annual. That's a far cry from the 2% that Ben and the gang at the US FED keeps broadcasting.
Its like ALICE IN WONDERLAND as accounting and economics have been subverted to the highest bidder. In the movie SYRIANNA one of the lawyers for the oil companies says about GAAP and the new accounting rules ... "If you stare at that bottom line long enough that loss disappears!" The entire system is corrupt because our money is corrupt and our money is corrupt because those at the top at the US Treasury and the US FED can print at will whatever they need to buy their power. That's truly dangerous and is absolutely tin horn, THIRD WORLD!
A collapse and denunciation of all current banking and government elites is what is needed. In the old days they used to call that a "monetary crisis". That's where the bond holders lose everything-not WE THE PEOPLE. That needs to happen in America not just in Argentina or Russia, but America. This talk about reform of the tax system or spending cuts or reform of the stock market and futures is just nonsense. Without a full blown monetary collapse there is no CHANGE! We are dealing with the human condition here and the egos and the power and the glory of the elite super-rich. These people will never volunteer to have less power. When in human history has any dictator or monopoly ever volunteered to quit? This is a monetary dictatorship here. They could care less who you vote for!
Re: Unemployment up at 9%; 1/4 million jobs added
lessmore,
I just read this at Mish's blog:
---------
BLS Jobs Report: Nonfarm Payroll Headline Number Looks Good, Beneath the Surface, Awful
On the surface, this was the third consecutive solid jobs report, not as measured by the typical recovery, but the best back-to-back reports we have seen for years. The Payroll Survey Establishment Data showed employment up by 244,000.
At that pace of hiring, the unemployment number would ordinarily drop, but not fast.
Instead, the unemployment rate ticked up. The reason is beneath the surface, employment fell by 190,000 according to the Household Survey.
According to the Household Survey, the number of unemployed rose by 205,000. Another 131,000 dropped out of the labor force or the unemployment rate would have been even higher.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
--------
And this from David Rosenberg:
The “wage-less” recovery:
• Today’s jobs data was a mixed bag, pure and simple
• The hallmark of the employment report was the litany of non-ratifying barometers that fell short of validating the bullish message from the headline
• Even if the headline improvement is telling the accurate story, we have to again emphasize that there are only two ingredients that go into economic growth: How much the workforce rose (bodies and hours) and how productive it was (output per hour worked)
• The jobs market has been wholly inadequate in terms of generating organic income growth
Grym
Re: Greece threathens to leave Euro area – Der Spiegel
Funny how I mentioned several days ago about no reaction whatsoever to the 25% Greek yields on 2 year bonds. Greeks had to pound the table with the separation threat and suddenly everyone is paying attention.
I'm sure there will be some compromise and more money printing decided over the weekend. Thus dollar could drop on Monday. However, the trends could be changing for good now.
Edit: One thing I just noticed, gold stopped falling while dollar keeps going up. So, it's panic selling of euro indeed.
Re: Greece threathens to leave Euro area – Der Spiegel
Reports that Greece denied. but who knows. monday they can say 1 thing. then tue another.
i am no longer going to the the puppet tied to strings. marching to my own drum
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
All greeks need to to is to crack the gray-zone economy. Everyone is hiding income and no one is paying taxes there. Sad but true.
Re: Unemployment up at 9%; 1/4 million jobs added
Grym, Vad:
I read your posts on this subject and its informative. Thanks.
Re: Greece threathens to leave Euro area – Der Spiegel
"No statement is made without an agenda; no report is published without
the authors’ interests at heart. Each and every proclamation must be
verified against market action. An astute trader will never act on
information fed to him without making sure the market reacts in a way the
information suggests. He will never make an automatic assumption that
information is complete, correct and truthful."
A Taoist Trader
http://www.traderwizard.com/node/296
See kaimu's Sound Money
Above.
Barton Biggs has been buying Japanese stocks
http://tinyurl.com/6f8svdl
"it's a country of savers"
I believe those savers are about to start to spend as well once the wheels of their economy start spinning again.
Re: Greece - damage control mode 3
I'm trying to get my head around the fact that the Italian man currently favourite to replace Trichet is a former Goldman Sachs director - the same company that was helping Greece to scam the EU and its creditors up until it all fell apart.
This guy is presently head of the financial stability board of the G-20 which are supposedly preparing new rules for financial market stability.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,151...
You can't make this stuff up.
Downtrend started?
US market looked weak and tired going into the close. Thanks for all the great comments on the commods and PM space. This weekend news with Greece/EU will be interesting. Have a great weekend all.
Re: (US) ShadowStats.com comments
The Euro Banksters and a few of their American cousins made a lot of bad loans in Greece. They want the central bank to bail them out. Kicking the can down the road is more desirable than an outright default. They certainly want to buy time. We do things different here...we send the Sec of Treasury down to Congress and threaten martial law on Monday if they don't fork over the cash. The Euro folks are more subtile and diplomatic but still in denial.
There is a divide developing between the people and said banksters. It was evident in the recent regional elections in Germany. Many are opposed to any further bailouts. Greek politicians support the banksters as they know they would be swept away if the Greek people revolt and return to the Drachma and default on bankster debt. They should lead the way IMO.
The ECB may find it necessary to borrow some QE from Bennie as the cost of extend and pretend will require some money printing. A fiat money race to the bottom. Again we see the problems with corporations and their control and influence of the political class.
FOOT OFF THE GAS
A fear of Greek debt default and contagion spreading to Spain and Italy, could cause the Euro to decline, the dollar to stabilize and perhaps rise, lower rates for UST Bonds. Euro exports would be more competitive. Commodity prices could cool along with tempering the rise of precious metals. Interest and mortgage rates would stay controlled. Temporary euphoria for the Chairman and his Committee.
Kaimu's reported that the government is spending $14 for every $1 dollar in revenue. A mind blower. This must be unsustainable. Kaimu said "Without a full blown monetary collapse there is no CHANGE!"
Thus we see the motivation to kick the can down le rue. Although the dollar could have a temporary reprieve here, the overspending and the continuation of creation of money by the FED will continue until collapse. A big drop in spending by both consumer and government will cause more economic chaos, and a global increase the loss of confidence in the world's reserve currency. Safe haven assets should continue to rise as confidence falls. The dollar
is a temporary parking lot at best. Commodities and precious metals will continue to attract outflows from dollar selling. Then someday it will all unravel and something new will arise from the collapse. Hopefully Honest Money.
Re: (US) ShadowStats.com comments
MoKat - "Commodities and precious metals will continue to attract outflows from dollar selling. Then someday it will all unravel and something new will arise from the collapse. Hopefully Honest Money"
Seriously, I think the plan is to get the US debt to extremely high levels (check), threaten default (tea party: check), encourage the foreigners to dump the debt at fire sale prices which the banksters will pick up for pennies (coming soon), and then they will use their control over the government to execute on Honest Money and a balanced budget (Ron Paul).
Then going forward the poor American tax donkeys will work for their entire lifetimes to pay the interest - in Honest Money - to the banksters, whose investment in what formerly was a terrible investment in an ever-inflating currency to something that's as Good as Gold.
How's that for a prediction?
Re: Greece threathens to leave Euro area – Der Spiegel
Dr S. - "If one deadbeat sovereign is removed from the EU, doesn't that make the EU more solvent"
Here's the flaw in your thinking: while some EU sovereigns might be solvent, EU BANKS are not. Neither are US banks. They've been able to pretend because the defaults have not happened. Extend and pretend, right?
You can't extend or pretend an actual national default. Its like 10 million home loans all going bad, instantly. If you own the debt, you have to take the loss, no way around it.
Once Greece defaults, the impact will ripple through the EU banking community. Likely, there will be runs on weaker institutions and countries. Credit default swaps will be triggered. This will affect other banks. Likely this will get out of hand. Trust will evaporate, like it did back in 2008.
I'll include another historical reference, once again from Before My LIfetime: Credit Anstalt of Austria. Once it went down in 1931, it caused a cascading series of bank failures throughout Europe that resulted in the worst part of the Great Depression. The Credit Anstalt default was really just the trigger event; they had been extending and pretending all along, but once Credit Anstalt defaulted, it exposed the rot everywhere.
The banking regulators know the rot runs deep throughout european banking. Anyone believe the eurozone "stress tests"? Pull one card, and you get to see it all. In case it isn't clear, Greece = Credit Anstalt. They have a new trick this time: prevent defaults, and the banks continue living. So they've prevented the banks from defaulting this time, but now the rot (and trigger event) has moved to the sovereigns. It's just moving the dirt around, of course. As a result, history rhymes, but doesn't repeat.
Once again, don't blame the bust, blame the boom and all the mal-investment caused by ultra-low rates and bubble financing. We have to pay for the credit destruction from the popping boom one way or another. The only question is, who pays, and how? The banker executive teams do NOT want it to be them, their shareholders, or their bondholders. They want it to be you, the taxpayers. So far, that's how its turned out.
Net-net: Greek default is bad for the eurozone. And for us too, truth be told. But its unavoidable. Unsustainable debt must be defaulted upon.
Re: Greece threathens to leave Euro area – Der Spiegel
davefairtex -
Thank you and I agree but add that if Deutsche Bank is allowed to go down when the deadbeats default, the ECB still has its massive gold hoard as do the sovereign nations of Germany, France and Italy, and all the Wall St banking cabal will have is its gov't operatives pressing a weak President to declare war on the EU over default on the swaps claims. Yes, Deutsche Bank may go down to save the nation or trigger WWIII. When the dust clears and all the bond holders are broke and the peace accord is signed, the euro will be king.
It's that or they all quit the euro next week and bail out their respective national banks with Ben's monopoly cash.
http://tinyurl.com/ckdbfz
So Gordon Brown's $$ Multi-B mistake 12 years ago
was correct ?? Well, as Fleck said, this author fit perfectly at the Fed...... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5788dbac-7680-11e0-b05b-.......
Re: (US) ShadowStats.com comments
Kaimu,
"It is as if our government is hiding the true state of the economy and our monetary issues in hopes of staying in power longer."
That is exactly what they are doing and apparently it works with people who have been unaffected so far or do not know people who have been. This has gone on far longer than I would have ever thought it could, but how long will it take for the millions who are getting the shaft to rebel?
They sold our jobs, bailed out those who designed the mortgage scam and have increased the destruction of the currency and the pretense of "solutions" goes on.
"In my past SOUND MONEY I mentioned that MIT, not exactly a bastion for dummies, is running their own CPI numbers called the BPP, based on internet prices and the link I showed has CPI running at 1% monthly or 12% annual. That's a far cry from the 2% that Ben and the gang at the US FED keeps broadcasting."
I'm curious if MIT is using something other than "owner equivalent rent" as a measure of the largest category. What would it take to get their results on the national media?
Grym
Re: See kaimu's Sound Money
exceptional post, it should be printed in newspapers across the country. the only question is how long before it all falls apart. it can't be long now though. thanks stephen, great stuff.
Re: (US) ShadowStats.com comments
Unfortunately it looks like MIT stopped updating their US BPP daily index. Last update was 04/24.
See the Post-Close Report
Above.
barton biggs
who would listen to him?
Bailed out those who designed the mortgage
Hi Grym - Not yet I would suggest: The likes of Schumer (who sits on the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs; the Judiciary Committee, where he is Chairman of the Subcommittee on Immigration, Refugees, and Border Security; the Joint Economic Committee, etc., along with Frank & Rangel, etc. still have not been held accountable. Happy Trading
Negativity
A lot of negativity on the board this evening.
What I think you still want to focus on is quality companies at good prices.
Doesn't really matter if Greece leaves the Euro - would cause some wild market swings, but Dupont is still going to sell chemicals and seeds, Exxon is still going to sell a ton of gas, Manulife is still going to sell a ton of insurance.
All these companies made it through the 70's inflation and are very profitable today.
You can still try and play precious metals if you want, but I personally think that is done for this year; you can hold cash, but that is getting inflated away from you; or stop worrying about the debt ceiling (someone will do something) and buy companies that will hold their value regardless of what happens.
A drop on Greece on Monday is a buying opportunity in my opinion.
Deutsche Bank revisited
I was surprised to see DB Deutsche Bank AG (USA) on the Cara 100. Considering likely fraud charges recently laid for their part in CDO swap shellgame causing losses of billions of pensioner's savings - at what point is an esteemed member revisited?
Re: Negativity
bbarberayr -
Yes, it all does get a bit tiresome. Even the Trading Wizard took a mental break from it recently.
I do like the railroaders with their huge PP&E, as pointed out by kaimu a while back. BNI CP NSC UNP CSX CNI RAIL with UNP being my favorite for its southern year-around fair weather routes. It's the Buffett playbook to buy a railroad but he couldn't afford UNP ;)
Check out that PP&E as a protection against hyperinflation. I wonder if they issue real stock certificates anymore. Could come in handy as an alternative to currency.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=UNP+Balance+Sheet&...
Re: Negativity
bbarberayr -
It sounds suspiciously like you are advocating buying stocks regardless of where they happen to be in their cycle, regardless of what the rest of the economy is doing, simply because they will continue to remain in business doing their thing, presumably continuing to make money. Sure, that's one approach to investing, but its not one I agree with, because companies do not "hold their value regardless of what happens." Equities do not behave like short term treasury bills!
I prefer to buy these same companies when they are inexpensive. If I can't find inexpensive companies, I don't mind waiting in cash until they become cheap for one reason or another. We're within a few percent of a multi-year market top. Prices don't feel cheap to me, especially with the debt default risks still lurking.
Inflation is a slow effect (perhaps 5% per year) but capital losses from a decent-sized market correction is a very quick effect. Knock on effects from a Greek default will take time to be felt across the world. And the Greek domino won't be the only one to fall. Ireland will come next, and then perhaps Portugal.
The credit destruction from the boom/bust hasn't taken place yet. We're still in pretend mode. Greece is pretending it can pay down its 150% of GDP debt. So are many other countries. They can't, and the effects of this being made real will be dramatic. Once the effects of no longer pretending have rippled through the world economies and people take their losses, then it will be time to buy with both hands.
Re: Greece threathens to leave Euro area – Der Spiegel
Dr S. -
I am certain I don't want to hold the euro through all the fuss and bother you describe. Currently most euro zone debt is seen as safe, but when countries within the zone start to leave and/or default, all euro debt will be repriced, and marginal holders of euros will flee the uncertainty of both the debt AND the euro for other areas that seem to be safer.
In some sense, until Germany's banks take their losses and the extent of that damage is revealed (and the impact of that on Germany's ability to service its sovereign debt is made clear) I don't really want to own even Germany's sovereign bonds. That country made a bunch of money by lending to their customers (can you say "dotcom" strategy?) who are now about to default. When their customers default, German lenders take losses, and if the sovereign bails the banks out bringing those losses onto the sovereign balance sheet, the sovereign debt becomes much less interesting to own because they have now lost customers AND taken on more debt.
It could be that the German banks have cleverly offloaded their bad Greek debt to the ECB. I saw an article recently where it showed that the ECB is the proud owner of 19% of outstanding Greek sovereign debt, so perhaps the German finance minister was right when he said that a Greek default wouldn't be all that bad - for his banks, presumably. Those banks sure are good at dumping their problems on Someone Else. Same article suggested bankers are getting ready to collect large fees for Greek restructuring. How cool is that?
Just for the record though, I don't think the gotterdammerung will happen on Monday. The pretenders still have a card or two left to play before they are forced to acknowledge the inevitable. My guess is a soft restructuring will be tried first; rates will be lowered and debt repayments stretched out for 15 or more years - and in return extract a promise from the Greeks that the creditors get to buy everything the Greek government currently owns. "How's that, Mr Market, you gotta like that deal, right?" A fun trade might have been to go long Greek debt just over the weekend, but I have no idea how to do that.
However in the short to medium term, think I'll wait until the hot money sloshes out of the euro zone before buying euros again. In order to buy Buffet's "straw hats during the winter" we first have to wait for winter to roll around, right?
Re: Negativity
hmmm, gold futures down 5% from its top and debt free gold explorers with known and quantifiable assets are on sale at 50% of their recent highs. In the case of PMV.V it is presently 1/3 of its fair value share price according to Bill's last blog remarks. Is Exxon and Dupont offering 50%+ discounts?
--------------------------------
bb said: "Doesn't really matter if Greece leaves the Euro"...
"Greece is threatening to leave the EU, and I am sure that many will say, "Well let them." And yet it is not quite that simple, because the reason for leaving would be to default on their debts.
Would this extinction of euro debt result in a stronger euro? Only in the most simplistic of minds and models. Their euro debts are held to a large degree by German banks. And a Greek default would encourage Ireland to do the same, and its debt is largely held by English banks. And in turn these banks are highly interconnected to the multinational banks. The market is a mine field of counter party risk."
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/05/g...
Counter party risk abounds, including buying small gold explorers whose prospects can be potentially expropriated. That's why we control risk by such methods as diversification. But buying overpriced industrial and ag stocks thinking everything is hunky dory in the global economy? No thanks. Throw your baby out with the bathwater; I'm pretty good looking after young bubs.
Saturday Morning Coffee: Tech Time
Regrettably, I haven't written much worthwhile for some time.
Conor sends me a piece overnight that might be worth your two minutes.
http://tinyurl.com/3pyc8y8
Re: Bailed out those who designed the mortgage
Luggie,
Getting these guys out of our lives would do more for national security than bin Laden's demise. IMO.
Rangle got a tap on the wrist and had his TV face time cut, but a guy who lied about his income to get questionable mortgages is serving a couple year in the slammer.
Oh, for the good old days when getting the shaft was at least more subtle.
Grym
Re: Negativity
bbarberayr,
I know what you say is so to a degree, but I think everyone is simply tired of the obvious manipulation and cronyism.
My biggest gain ever (double any year while I was still working) was trashed by the temporary ban on shorting the banks a couple years ago. Now I know I can't take my eye of the ball — experience still the best teacher.
Interference in the silver markets this week must have been a jolt to any who weren't on guard, but away at work.
Perhaps I would feel more confident if I could once again determine "companies what will hold their value regardless of what happens" if I knew who is having lunch with who in a government agency today. It's worked for Goldman, GE, GM... at least for the insiders. ;-)
Grym
Re: Negativity
Dave,
"I prefer to buy these same companies when they are inexpensive. If I can't find inexpensive companies, I don't mind waiting in cash until they become cheap for one reason or another. We're within a few percent of a multi-year market top. Prices don't feel cheap to me, especially with the debt default risks still lurking."
Someone may have mentioned it here, but in general things look a lot like 3 or 4 years ago and, coupled with a lull in the QEs, we may get another chance to pick up some companies at a decent price before long.
With Obama in full press campaign mode I suspect any significant drop to be short-lived.
Grym (65% cash now)
Sound Money
Whoa, I just read Kaimu's "Sound Money" — I see I'm in good company with my opinion today. Perhaps I'm learning something by osmosis here ;-)
Grym
Re: Saturday Morning Coffee: Tech Time
Ron Sen,
Your contribution this morning was definitely worth while. I share many of the thoughts presented & it confirms what I've garnered around these tech shares, especially Apple.
Here's a toast to you for your post, with a sip of coffee.
Re: Negativity
Negativity is getting boring. Time to just follow along with the direction Mr. Market Maniac takes us. When I called in to the hotline last night & got this response, decided it was time to change my attitude:
I was so depressed last night thinking about the economy, wars, jobs, my savings, Social Security, retirement funds, etc., I called the Suicide Hotline. I got a call center in Pakistan , and when I told them I was suicidal, they got all excited and asked if I could drive a truck.
Re: Negativity
4ever -
Sadly, I can't drive a truck. Boy did I miss out. :)
Re: Negativity
When I got back home from active duty in the army they didn't need a cook, found out I was not a very efficient Company Clerk (a couple year s of college, but never had typing) and they made me a truck driver a 2 week summer camp.
It was almost suicidal,since the 5 ton they assigned to me had no breaks — none. I forget how many gears it had, but usually downshifting was good enough. There was one time out in the boonies when a tank pulled out of the woods in front of me near the bottom of a very steep hill and it took about 15 or 20 small trees to stop me.
I was carrying a load of 55 gal drums filled with Fog Oil and several Gerry cans of gas.
Grym
The Speech
The Speech
No, not the King George movie, but a political one I watched this noon.
He stood silently at the podium before a large crowd for nearly a minute. Then began speaking very softly and slowly — outlining the economic a conditions facing the country and the unfair treatment of the average citizen.
Gradually the tempo and volume increased.
" We want the truth, not more lies. I make no promises of quick and easy solutions. We've had enough of empty, unfulfilled promises. What we need requires all of us to take responsibility for our own destiny. We need self assurance and perseverance and a return to what our ancestors saw as the way for the nation."
(This is close from notes, but not verbatim.)
It was an early 1930s speech by Adolph Hitler and the conditions he described sound all too familiar today — a worthless currency, widespread unemployment, dissatisfaction with the bankers, inflation — all were mentioned.
If not for his shrill voice and the language translation after each sentence it would have sounded like what I want to see changed here. Let's hope we can turn things around before someone like that becomes "acceptable."
Grym
Re: Negativity
ALOHA!!
Negativity ... is a judgment.
What is truly boring to me is "business as usual" in monetary and political matters. And man, its been boring here in America for 20 years now! I have enough common sense to know and see that what passes for leadership and money in this country is broken at its core. If it were not then that big red chart I posted in SOUND MONEY would not look like it does. As citizens of this country we have a Constitutional and moral duty to "put in check" our own government when government grows too large and too dominant in our lives. If you feel that the US DEBT is not an issue here in America then that is your call, but human history says the opposite.
As for me I do not spend a lot of time sitting around judging things to be negative or positive as all I can do is base my life choices on "what is", which is why I like to say, "IT IS WHAT IT IS". Really no truer words were ever spoken. Its such a simple statement yet most of us will spend enormous amounts of time and money and energy trying to CHANGE things or people or "markets" that we cannot change. Instead of that path the best path is to choose "acceptance" of the things and people and markets that we cannot change. Welcome to AA on the Blog!
I have to say I love the challenge of life, even when I am down and out, making choices and just going after my goals. I use the term "stepping stones" a lot when I talk about this process of getting from Point A to Point B, but really what I am speaking to is "leverage". If I did not use "leverage" I would still be a City worker on the Street Dept for the City of Costa Mesa, California. And these days that would have been a pretty good choice by now, so I am not saying anything is good or bad about that, its just that the path of being a city worker did not satisfy me, so I moved on and sometimes you have to move on because you have no choice but to accept things. Joseph Campbell speaks a lot to these issues.
For me you guys may see me as a "gold bug" or a "anti-government nut" or a "buy and holder" who just got lucky or a "Tea Party loser" or just an "orchid grower". In reality though none of us here at this blog really knows who any of us are. Oh, sure we have met up at a CTA Conference in Nassau or Freeport like we will at Whistler later this year, but having an acquaintance for a day or two or reading someones article or post an hour or two a day to me does not qualify as "knowing". I do not really know any of you nor you I. I have met Bill Cara a number of times and Vad as well but I cannot really say I know them that well. I respect their abilities and their instruction ... I do that, but even there I follow the old AA standard of "Take what you want and leave the rest". I always say to myself that everyone is a genius and so I must listen to what they have to say because they may say something that is absolute genius that I can use in my life. Like a bird gathering twigs for its nest we are surrounded by ideas and possibilities to secure our own nest. In life we are always presented with opportunities to improve our life as we see fit. That is all any of us can hope to succeed at. That is what the basis is for Mises concept of HUMAN ACTION. The fact that we are all here blogging at Bill Cara or Seeking Alpha is HUMAN ACTION in action. The very fact that I view the exponential growth of Treasury debt as dangerous is the only reason I own gold and silver. It has nothing to do with being a loyal gold bug yet it has everything to do with filling a monetary value void and that is pure HUMAN ACTION.
In the 1990s I was buying and selling tech(fiber optic) IPOs through Morgan Stanley. I did not buy a single ounce of gold in the 1990s. In fact I just sold some gold based junior explorer companies to "leverage" my way into an up and coming tech market based on Live Internet TV. Opportunities arise in life ...
I personally do not care if bloggers here judge the board to be negative. I do not care as there is genius even in negativity. We are all humans and we have cycles ... negative or positive ... who cares ... IT IS WHAT ITS IS!
Re: The Speech
Grym -
So the good news is, AH may have talked about the specific issues germane to the voters of the day, but he also wrote Mein Kampf. A quick read of that book would have revealed the voter was getting a bit more than he bargained for.
One hopes that any future versions of AH are thoughtful enough to write a similar type of book exposing their thinking for all to see.
Re: Negativity
kaimu -
You're the anti-negativity man. You're the light!
Re: Negativity
Excellent humorous diversion. Pretty close to matching Tobyt's rendition of the paranormal studies seminar wherein the "gentleman" acknowledged he had misinterpreted the query re sleeping with ghosts... and, thankfully, that portrayed "gentleman" is no longer among the living!!
Re: The Speech
Dave,
The main thing was the similarity of the issues which faced the German people at the time — Depression (financial and mental), worthless currency, the financial leaders of the day, the foreign hatred (WWI legacy), the failed promises of other politicians.
Then there were his solutions — regain your self respect by demanding justice, learn to take charge of your own destiny, immediate jobs provided through massive public works (the autobahn), take what we need (Trump has proposed this with Middle East oil).
His delivery was masterful.
Sure he wrote a book outlining his intent (Obama's "Dreams From My Father"), but how many read then or now? His was a pure sound bite approach which is all many people ever remember — "Read my lips...", "Ask not what your country can do for you..." "Change we can believe in."
The crime rate today is rising here where jobs have been gone the longest and falsification of job date only angers people, no improvement in border security, increasing food and energy cost ("minus food & energy" reports) rising taxes on falling house values...
I'd say we are ripe for the picking.
Grym
P.S. "Godwin has argued[4] that overuse of Nazi and Hitler comparisons should be avoided, because it robs the valid comparisons of their impact."
See Godwin's Law:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_law
"When it becomes serious, you have to lie"
[On March 29, when speculation swirled that Portugal needed a bailout, Prime Minister Jose Socrates denied — again — that that would happen despite clearly unsustainable market pressures. "I'm sick of saying we won't" be requesting help, he told journalists. Just eight days later, in a chastened appearance on national television, Socrates did just that.
Such stunning U-turns in the lead-up to big announcements have by now become a familiar pattern in Europe's debt crisis — in Greece a year ago, then Ireland in November — and show how policymakers have had to adapt the way they speak publicly under the scrutiny of jittery markets. With traders and journalists keeping track of every utterance, officials have had to develop the bluffing ability of poker players as much as anything else.
For Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, the threat of immediate market turbulence means the usual norms of transparency don't apply. "When it becomes serious, you have to lie", Juncker, who as the chairman of the regular meetings of eurozone finance ministers is one of the currency union's key spokesmen, said in recent remarks.
Even confirming the existence of discussions on explosive financial issues can quickly turn them into self-fulfilling prophecies and have serious consequences for a country's economy by driving up borrowing costs. "If you are pre-indicating possible decisions, you are fueling speculation on the financial markets, throwing into misery mainly ordinary people whom we are trying to safeguard from this," Juncker said.
One scenario that EU officials are now firmly denying is that of a sovereign debt restructuring — namely allowing a country to partially default on its debt by extending repayment deadlines or reducing the total amount owed.
In recent weeks, rumours and press reports have grown louder about secret discussions among eurozone finance ministers about restructuring the massive debt of Greece — despite official denials. Debt restructuring "is not part of our strategy and will not be," the EU's Monetary and Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said Monday, echoing many of his colleagues in recent weeks.
Few people have had to answer more questions about the seeming contradiction of official comments and market swings than Amadeu Altafaj Tardio, Rehn's spokesman [..] "I know that every single word that I pronounce can have an impact on markets," said Altafaj Tardio, a former journalist himself.
But those pressures cannot serve as an excuse to lie. "There have been so many leaks and there are so many sources of a different sort involved that there is never room for any lies," he said of the current crisis. "You don't survive 24 hours if you lie in this environment."
Instead, the art of being a spokesman is to know when and how to release your information. "When I'm standing there on the podium, I'm doing political communication, I'm not an information desk," said Altafaj Tardio. "We don't tell all the truth all the time, but we never lie."
"A European crisis, viewed from Brussels, is much more complex (than a national one) because of all the member states," said Tim Fallon, head of corporate and financial affairs at the London office of communications firm Hill & Knowlton [..]
Politicians and spokespeople "have to control the agenda as much as they can", said Fallon. That involves "putting out as many positive character statements as you can" about a country under pressure [..]
http://tinyurl.com/politicallies
Re: The Speech
Grym,
Its interesting that liken Trump to Hitler: "take what we need (Trump has proposed this with Middle East oil)."
Re: The Speech
ALOHA!!
One hopes that any future versions of AH are thoughtful enough to write a similar type of book exposing their thinking for all to see.
I'll go you one better Dave and Grym ...
I would hope that the people who surround such people as an AH would also sound the alarm for the masses, but that is not what happened even here in America recently and during Vietnam. For some reason those politicos thought it more prudent to sustain their political career and power rather than offering up the truth. And so secrecy prevails again and again out of just plain old moral corruption and greed ...
I will use the LBJ TAPES as an example. It was not until some 40 years later that we can now hear a private conversation between LBJ and Robert McNamara regarding the truth of the Vietnam War. Robert McNamara was Sec of Defense from 1961 to 1968 during the beginning of the Vietnam War. In 1965 he had this taped conversation where he and LBJ expressed concern that the War was lost, yet they both agreed to continue on and add another 150,000 soldiers to the ground forces(advisers) that were already in Vietnam. Now neither of them wrote a Mein Kompf and neither were as vicious and evil as AH, but they did end up ruining the lives of many kids and their families as well as causing America to ultimately default on the gold standard by their decision to escalate the Vietnam War even though they both privately felt the War was not worth prosecuting any further. Of course nether of them had any kids headed to the jungles of Southeast Asia, but both had special interests breathing down their necks as well as their own political careers to consider. They chose hubris and look how many of America's youth died in a War that even the President of the United States at the time privately admitted could not be won. Nearly 60,000 kids died in Vietnam, which tops Bin Laden's 2500 at the WTC!
Now if I use the LBJ TAPES and the NIXON TAPES as a guide for the types of people who now sit at the top of the political and monetary power structure in America it gives me a more complete view of the lengths they will go to in order to preserve their own status and power within the system. These people and their human conditions ... their egos ... their vanity ... to me are very dangerous. You have to consider the reasons they each entered into politics or banking in the first place. The most common reason we hear from politicians as to why they ever got into politics is that they felt they could "make a difference" by serving America and making America a better place to live. Whenever I hear that I almost want to barf! Service to the community? Giving back ... Ahhh, come on! I can see that on a local level but once you enter the power realm of Washington DC you are kidding yourself with that line. I mean look at the political and monetary power elites who are and have been governors and congressmen and presidents. There's the Kennedys, the Bushs, mostly rich and powerful types before they ever stepped foot into politics. Then you have the Obama types who were seduced into power and groomed all along the way by the same elite structure he now represents and who now own him. None of them strike me as altruistic and self sacrificing ... self serving is more like it ... HOPE AND CHANGE was a complete con job on WE THE PEOPLE. It worked ... Well, it worked to get Obama elected, but it hasn't done a damn thing for America and its lowly citizenry except to deepen our indebted quagmire.
So there you go. We may not have any full blown AHs with their Mein Kampfs and their vendettas against the Jews, but we have had and still have plenty of mini-AH types who are ruthless in their bid to grab power and hold onto it at any cost, even if it means sending kids to die in some far off land for the political hubris dujour ... the FEAR DUJOUR that will best control how the masses vote and keep them in office for another term. Its called "shooting elephants" in my lexicon. Its something the BRITISH EMPIRE did all over the World to sustain EMPIRE for 300 years.
The only tool that WE THE PEOPLE have to control these types is to constantly be dismantling their ever grandiose dreams of BIG GOVERNMENT, because when you have a SMALL GOVERNMENT you have small consequences and minimal damage, but when you allow EMPIRE to take hold then you have major damage control to contend with and that is what we have today in America. Look to the recent collapses of empires like BRITAIN and RUSSIA if you want to see what our future is. Hey, when you're at the TOP there's not a lot of directions left. America is now the TOP EMPIRE and it is the most indebted empire and believe it or not that "deficits do not matter", but it is "debt" that has brought down every empire since Rome with military adventurism on a global scale added in as one of the main catalysts for collapse. We certainly have all those ingredients of Empire at work now plus a few the Caesars did not have. The political and monetary delusions are a daily fix ... even nanosecond, as you can see by any visit to an online "debt clock"!
Oh, look here's one ...
LINK: http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Go ahead click and scroll all those flashing numbers ... Its just numbers ...
Some of the more interesting numbers are down towards the bottom of the clock like the one for currency and credit derivatives now at $572.5TRIL. Then the ones that show US National assets per capita versus liabilities per capita. This shows the LIABILITY BUBBLE is alive and well whether your house is paid off or not! Its just numbers ...
100 year commodity downtrend is BROKEN - Jeremy Grantham
Barrons trots out distinguished bear Jeremy Grantham every few years for a major interview. In '98, he forecasted ZERO increase in stocks over the next ten years. One of the VERY few who got that right !
He can’t predict short-term, he admits, but says yes he CAN predict on the long-term based on assessing deviations from long-term trend lines.
In ’07, he questioned whether oil at $147/bbl really represented a paradigm shift towards long-term price UP-trend. In fact, he said that -- having studied 30 bubbles -- they always crash back down to trend (often to below trend). He had NEVER come across a true paradigm shift. Still, oil was to be his “bell-weather”.
WELL, he published the attached April ’11 letter BEFORE last week’s commodity crash – ironically enough:
http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetterALL_1Q11...
Now having studied 300 bubbles from history, Grantham proclaims there HAS been an across-the-board paradigm shift away from the 100 year downtrend in commodity prices (exhibit 2 in the attached). Based on deviation to date from the established long-term downtrend, he assesses which commodity warrants which probability of truly having broken its downtrend (figure 4).
The most high-probability long-term shift upwards – by FAR -- is in IRON ORE. (Might that just have something to do with there being a tight 3-firm global oligopoly controlling supply?) He touches on grains, water, and other commodities critical to developed economies and to survival in developing countries.
The main reasons he cites for these shifts are China and climate. Of course, he could be WRONG on both causes identified. China could suffer another “great leap backwards” , and climate change could turn out to be towards sun-spot-related “cooling” – for all I know! He also considers what happens if China demand shrinks and weather continues to “act up” simultaneously. Also, we have to concede, price trends don’t necessarily have clear “fundamental” reasons behind them anyway.
Although a financial guy, Grantham – a fierce critic of US fiscal and monetary policy – in this piece focuses just on commodities, and offers some very impressive “big picture” thinking.
The Scariest Chart
http://tinyurl.com/3sgf4vp
The yield on the the 3 month T Bill is equal to the lows of 2008. As the financial crisis begins the next leg down, this yield will soon be negative and we will pay to have the government protect our cash. Our abject fear of fiat currency will soon morph into the battle to protect it.
Re: "When it becomes serious, you have to lie"
I'm not an information desk," said Altafaj Tardio. "We don't tell all the truth all the time, but we never lie."
The man is a liar.
Armstrong on Silver
SILVER has come crashing down right in line with the usual 11 year high. This has come also on a Pi cycle from the October 2008 low (31.4 months). Yet despite the blood and the carnage that is typical in this market prone to high volatility, whether this proves to be a long-term high of a major shake-out will be revealed in the weeks ahead.
The primary support to what lies at $23.50-$26.50 range. This is the critical area for long-term support and a MONTHLY closing BELOW
this range would signal that we have a serious near-term change in trend. On the yearly level, the main support lies at $28.
This will be the critical area to watch for year-end. A closing BELOW this level will signal a decline into 2012.
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/The%20Silver%...
and on passing the torch to Asia
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Passing%20the...
Dunno if the Doc has linked them already. Worth a read.
John Williams Interview Double Dip Recession and Inflation
Here's the link to an interview with John Williams of Shadow Stats.
He says a double dip recession and hyperinflation lie dead ahead... sort of.
It's an interesting interview... worth the read IMO.
http://tinyurl.com/3mob6tr
Possible sharp inflation pressures after the end of QE2
I just realized something, which I thought was important to share. Consider the following excerpts from John Hussman's weekly letter a couple of weeks ago:
"Alternatively, with the monetary base now exceeding 16 cents for every dollar of nominal GDP, any external upward pressure on interest rates (that is, not produced by a Fed-initiated reduction in the monetary base) would quickly provoke inflationary pressures. ... In order to offset the inflationary pressure from a slight exogenous increase in interest rates, the Fed would be forced to respond with a sharp tightening in its balance sheet. ... Based on the very robust relationship between short-term interest rates and the monetary base, it is clear that a normalization of short-term interest rates, even to 0.25-0.50%, would require the Federal Reserve to fully reverse the $600 billion of asset purchases it conducted under QE2."
It seems that the mainstream thinking on Wall Street now is that the end of QE2 is going to be a nonevent, because even if the T-bill yield rises to 2% because of no more treasury purchases, the economy is strong enough to withstand it. However, if Hussman's math is correct (and I think it is), then the end of QE2 and a rise in short-term interest rates coupled with no changes to the Fed's balance sheet (they suggested in their April meeting that there will be no balance sheet reductions in the near future) will give us very strong inflationary pressures in 2H 2011, which can send PMs to the moon. So let's watch the short-term interest rates carefully, and if they start going up this summer, then don't forget to go all-in on PMs right away.
Re: The Speech
lessmore,
A clarification.
While I don't see Trump as "Presidential material" I don't mean to liken him to Hitler except to point out what I did hear him say. I remember saying to a friend shortly after we invaded Iraq asking a friend why we always had to pay for the wars with not only American lives, but also seem to think we should finance the whole deal.
To expect the country being "rescued" to kick in seemed reasonable to me. To simply "take the oil" would be a much different matter in my view and harks back to pillaging and plundering like the Middle Ages.
I don't think Trump will be a serious contender.
Grym
Re: The Speech
Kaimu,
"The only tool that WE THE PEOPLE have to control these types is to constantly be dismantling their ever grandiose dreams of BIG GOVERNMENT..."
I'm sure we have had some in government and probably still do who genuinely want to serve in an honest and forthright manner. Some may do things with the best intentions which do not work out in any positive way. But I totally agree with your statement above.
We need to take back the power which congress has accumulated over decades. Committee chairmen in the most important committees have Caesar's thumbs up or down control which remove all possibility of any democratic process.
Term limits, prevention of returning as a lobbyist, campaign contribution transparency and I'm sure there are other changes would go a long way toward preventing a life-long career in seats of power.
Washington refused to stay on (some would have made him a king) — the reverse is true today. We now have a elitist core who see all others as serfs and are on the way to cutting us down to that level.
My allusion to Hitler's speech was merely to point out the similarity of conditions may make it possible for such a person to rise to power if our course is not changed soon.
Grym
WIR #19-2011
... is published. Have a good evening, and don't forget Mom!