CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
[7:00am ET] Good morning.
It’s interesting to read the financial news headlines in the pre-market hours, but especially on Monday where the spin is always at a peak. Today, with the US broad equity market futures completely flat as the headline appeared; CNN Money shouted “Stocks set to start the week with a pop, telling us that DJIA and S&P 500 futures were up +0.4% and +0.6% respectively. With that 6:42am ET time stamp, that was false “news”. Besides, the French, German and UK bourse indexes were down between -0.5% and -1.0%, so indications, if any, are that prices at the open will be soft.
Of course, prices change by the minute; but that’s not my point.
Another headline in the past hour shouts: “Oil up +$3 to $112 on bargain-hunting,” but in fact the contract has not been particularly strong this morning.
The one that really amused me is: “Goldman Sees Commodity Recovery as Slump Erases $99 Billion” but in the details of the story the GS analyst, who a couple weeks ago had recommended taking profits in a large basket of commodities, which was a well-timed recommendation, was quoted Friday “Given the magnitude of the pullback, it does create an opportunity for more upside potential, particularly in the second half of this year, when fundamentals are expected to tighten.” That statement hardly squares with the headline.
Being influenced by headlines can be bad for your financial health.
Keys to market direction that I will be watching this week are (i) the US bank stocks, which may be encountering credit market issues, and (ii) the Producer and Consumer Price Inflation Index data that will be published Thursday and Friday. Where inflation is a problem in countries like India and China, the central banks of those countries have been tightening, which has had a depressing impact on their equity markets.
The European banks have had a dreadful start to the week:
Have a good start to your week. I’m sure it will be a very exciting one.
Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.
| Symbol | Name | Last Trade | Change | Related Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^ATX | ATX | 2,770.00 |
0.00 (0.00%) | Components, Chart, More |
| ^BFX | BEL-20 | 2,687.47 |
 14.80 (0.55%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FCHI | CAC 40 | 4,017.99 |
40.02 (0.99%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^GDAXI | DAX | 7,431.51 |
60.74 (0.81%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^AEX | AEX General | 356.13 |
2.99 (0.83%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^OSEAX | OSE All Share | 487.69 |
0.34 (0.07%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SMSI | Madrid General | N/A | 0.00 (0.00%) | Chart, More |
| ^OMXSPI | Stockholm General | 370.16 |
0.43 (0.12%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SSMI | Swiss Market | 6,481.16 |
45.35 (0.69%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FTSE | FTSE 100 | 5,948.73 |
28.04 (0.47%) |
Components, Chart, More |
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL
The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.
Enjoy your day.
Cara on Trends & Cycles
Vad's Catch of the Day
Kaimu's Sound Money
CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Good evening. Patrick here.
A Few Random Thoughts in no Particular Order:
• Financials (XLF-0.25%) trade very heavy with Goldman (GS-0.65%) and Bank of America (BAC-1.06%) still staring into the abyss, horizontal support on the verge of giving way.
• Glad I don’t own Citigroup (C-2.31%); the company completed the 10-for-1 reverse stock split, but didn’t adjust the dividend proportionately leaving the 1 penny payout unchanged. Ouch.
• A very big clue this morning’s low would hold was the reliance of the S&P and precious metals in the face of a rising US Dollar. While the greenback was making higher highs the stock market held firm as did gold (GLD+1.52%) and silver (SLV+7.10%). Once the buck reversed course traders added risk bidding equities up, confident the downgrade of Greek debt was already discounted by market participants.
• Miners’ (GDX+2.00%) price action leaves a lot to be desired – there clearly is no institutional urgency to own these stocks, the path of least resistance looks to be down, even if the stocks bounce a bit higher in the short term.
• Trading crude oil (USO+4.31%) is like riding a wild stallion – gigantic moves in both directions. Too bad the price of gasoline in Chicago only goes in one direction – up. The price here is the highest in the nation.
• If one is inclined to write options against a portfolio the June cycle is historically a great month to short. The premium contraction normally begins to gather stream in mid-May and lasts through Memorial Day so now is the time to identify situations meeting your criteria.
• If the S&P takes out last weeks’ low at 1329 look for a test of 1295, with lower support 1250. Overhead resistance remains at 1381and 1440.
Trading was rather light today and future totals will definitely be adversely impacted by the Citigroup reverse stock split. Perhaps the arms index will behave more normally post-split, as the massive turnover in C routinely skewed the TRIN calculations, over or understating the intensity of buying and selling pressure.
Have a great evening.
Comments
Commodity hedge fund loses $400m in oil slide
Clive Capital, the world’s largest commodity hedge fund, has been left nursing losses of more than $400m as a result of the collapse in the price of oil last week.
London-based Clive – which manages an estimated $5bn of client money – is the biggest of several large hedge funds believed to be reeling after the unexpected sell-off hit markets late last week.
http://on.ft.com/iEUDSI
Greek problems put focus on Spain
http://on.ft.com/iVQlJJ
Re: Commodity hedge fund loses $400m in oil slide
Mark H,
With Silver and Crude Oil down -25.6% and -14.6% respectively last week, I believe a great many hedge funds were hammered. Moreover, if there has been an intermediate trend change from Bull to Bear, many of those funds will be facing reversals this week, which, if true, will put more pressure on commodity prices.
Greece CDS @ 1360bp (+43)
http://twitter.com/#!/gavannolan
If Greece sets a precedent here and somehow manages to restructure without triggering a CDS payout does that lessen the value of CDS as a bellwether of sovereign health?
Cara 100 Ratings Changes For POMO Monday
Good morning.
6-8 Billion Dollar POMO Injection Today.
------
There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.
------
"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedy." ~ Ernest Benn
Re: Commodity hedge fund loses $400m in oil slide
Bill said: "Moreover, if there has been an intermediate trend change from Bull to Bear, many of those funds will be facing reversals this week, which, if true, will put more pressure on commodity prices."
I'll be watching JNK for potential short entries as JNK:TLT tops out. If speculators are about to get punished with some unfriendly Fed action along with some sector downgrades then junk bonds could be good for a summer put option position. JMO.
Re: Commodity hedge fund loses $400m in oil slide
Thanks Bill.
A reversal in fortunes for these big players coupled with a reversal in the broad market could make for a potent combination. For now, I expect the temptation will be for them to double down as no one likes to give up on what they see as a winning trade.
Watching oil and copper closely. I was reassured by the $3.60 and $46 support levels you mentioned for copper and Freeport. I know FCX is a favourite amongst hedgies.
Last week, someone mentioned that the iron ore market is controlled by an oligopoly – I assume he means VALE, BHP & RIO – so does that make these miners a safer bet?
Re: Commodity hedge fund loses $400m in oil slide
Bill, in speaking of further pressure on commodity prices what action will unfriendly Fed policy have on junior explorers? These guys'll have exploration results coming out at some point from funding that was made when the sector was firing on all cylinders late last year.
What will be the funding environment in a situation of tightening credit? Will they be affected? From what I'm reading I am looking at an intermediate trend change lasting through summer. All bets off? As I think I recall last year, we waited for the end of summer for the precious metal mining rally to resume. Redux 2011? Comments appreciated. TIA
When is a job, not a job?
When I read in WIR 19, "employment levels are rising..," my immediate reflex thought was, "NOT!"
Then, once again, I had to remind myself I am not basically a short-term trader and took Bill's advice of a couple paragraphs farther along...
"Breathe in; breathe out."
I had just finished reading Mish's article which has the ring of truth where I live:
Digging Still Deeper In Friday's Jobs Report; What's the Real Unemployment Rate?
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
For swing traders like me and for people living where local reports tell how many job seekers respond to every single opening (even at low pay and no benefits) this view is the reality.
Financial reporters and MSM grasp every bit of positive data in an effort to paint a picture of improvement — but millions know this job market is not improving for very many people in large sections of the country.
Realizing the misrepresentation regarding jobs, I can't accept any economic reports at face value.
• US corporations earnings: How much is made or sold in the US?
• Mortgage costs? Where are the buyers/borrowers around here? My RE neighbor has had to cut staff and merge with another agency after over 50 years in business.
• Home building? Not the high-end builder who I know — still stuck with his last project unsold.
• Inflation? Counting the often ignored food & energy? My son who's working a 32 hour week paid $70 to fill his tank yesterday and our latest 34oz can of coffee is "down to" $9.99. (This Sale Price is a drop from $11.99 just two weeks ago, but is it a loss-leader?)
Yes, these data are meaningful for the short term market affect, but I just can't take a victory lap for any longer view. There seems to be no plan in sight to "fix" this sick country yet, just more fairytales. The currency destruction is apparently unnoticed by many I have talked with here. If it looks like a dollar, spends like a dollar... it's still a dollar.
Grym
S&P cuts Greece to B, Watch remains negative
...
Greek tragedy continuing
08:15:00
*(GR) S&P CUTS GREECE SOVEREIGN RATING TO 'B' FROM 'BB-' (two notch cut); REMAINS ON WATCH NEGATIVE
- Downgrade reflects sentiment on debt extension and also due to possible burden sharing with Euro zone official creditors
- Greece missits its 2010 fiscal objectives and uncertain whether or not the country can achieve its 2011 objectives.
- May possibly further cut rating by an addition one to two notches if fiscal position deteriorates.
- Increased risk that Greece might restructurte its commercial debt; Principal reductions of 50% more likely needed -
*** REMINDER: When S&P last cut Greece on March 29th, commented that it could cut sovereign ratings by an additional one or two notches if the country's fiscal position worsened
08:38:06
(GR) Greece Fin Min Papandreou: Questions the credibility, timing of S&P downgrade, calls it unjustified
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
(EU) German Govt Advisor Bofinger (Wisemen): Euro zone requires a comprehensive solution at this time or might not remain intact in a year's time
- Must consider stimulus measures for Greece in addition to austerity
- Changing approach for the Euro zone periphery countries
Mitek (MITK.ob)
I wasn't expecting this much revenue growth and earnings this soon. The addition of BAC + COF is huge.
*Bank of America confirmed as new customer
*Capital One confirmed as new customer
*90% YoY revenue growth
*$0.025 quarterly earnings
*Significant cash raise
*Confirmed Nasdaq listing
I still think this will be a $50 stock by 2012-2013
FD:
Long stock at $5.45
Cara 100 Update
CCJ - Cameco upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Newcrest.
NE - Noble Corporation upgraded to Strong Buy from Reduce at Duncan-Williams
citing valuation. Price target is $54.
SNDK - SanDisk upgraded to Buy from Hold at ThinkEquity citing valuation. Price target raised to $60 from $55.
Econoday Today
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
ZH
Cara 100 Update
TEF - taken to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.
pre-market pop in pm's
On very tiny volume, there was a phenomenal pre-market pop in gold/silver miners in NY vs a sell-off continuing in major metal miners in London. Is this Sprott's last stand? Let's watch how things transpire later in the morning. I am skeptical the pm rally continues early in the week.
UK Builders reject ONS sector data
http://on.ft.com/j358p3
The Office for National Statistics is looking into whether a change in the way it collects data about the construction industry has distorted reported levels of activity. If the complaints are correct, UK GDP is likely to have grown about 0.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2011 rather than the 0.5 per cent reported.
In summary, good news for the Great British pound.
Re: pre-market pop in pm's
Took 16 minutes for the pm's to sell down below the opening pop. I'm not surprised. Now on the move higher again, let's see how quick the offers to sell roll in. I could be wrong, but it looks to me like today is Margin Call Monday -- hit any bid! -- and the pre-open was a set-up.
Re: pre-market pop in pm's
On my IB one minute chart for SLW.to 300K shares traded in the 4th minute of trading (unusually high) and price jumped about 50 cents. Then volume and price dropped back.
Re: pre-market pop in pm's
Freedom57,
My point exactly. SLW.TO is down about -2% in the 35 minutes since that trade. Who would put on such a trade unless they were using OPM to protect a group/fund portfolio. I have been watching this all across the pm's.
The day will settle down, but the key here is to watch the forces at work to see where the support-resistance lies, the volumes on the follow-on moves, and if a move is sustainable.
SLW had a good qtr report this am, which might have inspired some action.
Re: pre-market pop in pm's
And we had a call for long entry right there:
[09:33] {Threei} Long Setup: SLW .80 break
[09:33] {Threei} if holding .70
Needless to say, entry was impossible (we got it later on pullback). The practical educational point here though: NEVER use market orders for entry on a breakout. Your limit order will simply go unfilled, while your market order would get you in 50 cents higher. Think of it as inverted mini-crash - offers get canceled, price jumps up.
Cara 100 Update
AMZN - price target was boosted at Citigroup to $240 from $190. Strong unit growth, Citigroup said. Maintain Buy rating.
RJ News Brief: First Look at SLW 1Q11 Results
Raymond James: In-line with our estimates/ below consensus estimates.
Details: Production and cash costs were largely in-line with expectations; however, silver equivalent sales were light as a result of delays in deliveries.
• Earnings – Reported adjusted EPS of $0.34, in-line with our estimate of $0.35 but below consensus at $0.41. CFPS was $0.37, lower than our estimate of $0.40 and well under consensus of $0.47.
• Production – Attributable silver streams produced 6.2mln silver equivalent ounces (SEO) at a total cash cost of $4.07/oz, slightly below our estimate of 6.3MSEO at costs of $4.02/oz. Silver Wheaton sold 4.9MSEO at an average realized price of $32.24/oz.
• Shipment Timings – As at March 31, ~3.0MSEO had been produced, but not yet delivered to Silver Wheaton, and will be recognized in future. This was an increase of ~700,000 SEO q/q (~30%).
• Balance Sheet - $564mln in cash and equivalents with total debt of $100mln, plus $400mln available under its revolving credit facility.
• Guidance – Silver Wheaton is maintaining 2011 guidance of 27-28MSEO at cash costs of ~$4.00/oz.
Greek lesson in how to spook sov debt investors
Greek restr talk = bad day 4 peri credit. 5yr CDS Port 658bp (+26) Ire 685 (+30) Italy 165 (+12) Esp 259 (+16) Greece 1382 (+65) - Markit
http://twitter.com/#!/Chris_Whittall
Greece - Fitch is next
(GR) Fitch may be planning to downgrade Greece rating 4 or 5 notches to as far as B- from BB+ -Germany press citing sources
- Reminder: in March Fitch commented that Greece's sovereign ratings could fall sharply unless the country can regain market access
Re: pre-market pop in pm's
levels are better, but still below 9:30am opening. So, looks like a replay of Friday.
strength in USD since 8am being tested now.
Deeper Lessons of the Crude Oil 'Flash Crash'
http://bit.ly/iOMEY9
EXCERPT:
Even on the downside, a falling crude oil price can wreak havoc. Huge, bloated pension funds -- like the state funds that manage tens to hundreds of billions in public employee retirement money -- have made very large long-term bets on commodities and commodity-related equity plays. They have done this out of conviction that commodities are a "can't lose" proposition, and also in desperation as they seek to find acceptable asset returns in a zero-interest-rate world.
So when the price of crude oil gets rocked, the pension funds get shocked -- on the downside as well as the up. Big institutional investors choking on sudden losses and huge margin calls can trigger breakdown in the markets at large.
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
(GR) Greece Labor Min Katseli: may be difficult to return to bond market in 2012, discussing alternatives
Alternatives... code word for debt restructuring?
Re: When is a job, not a job?
as far as employment... locally... my spouse manages the largest pediatric practice in our city (12 docs, 3 CPNPs, 1 PA)... last week received 100+ resumes for two billing positions... two positions with CPAs, education professionals (master degrees), and other professionals from unrelated industries for a 13-15hr position
I would have to agree there are spots where the employment picture isn't as bright as reported in MSM...
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
(GR) Moody's places ratings on review for downgrade
- Note: Follows actions by S&P earlier today
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
Who cares about this anymore?
Follow the secular trends for longer term gains and ignore these meaningless headlines. Best trend right now is anything related to mobile and mobile apps. My biggest holding (MITK) is right in this sector and is growing tremendously...they will be a huge winner even if the Greece fiasco has a minor impact on the markets. I'm focusing more on secular bull markets that could care less about the economy.
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
Forgive me for posting meaningless headlines. Didn't mean to distract you from following mobile apps.
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
Vad > no offense meant to you...just saying it's pretty clear the market doesn't care about Greece and secular bull markets don't care.
Greek story continues
I appreciate both teamonfuego mobile apps ideas, Mr.Cara's commentary and Vad's charts and info.
Last week was silver crush.
This week Greek Tragedy?
The ebb and flow of money.....
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
None taken, just forgot to insert a smiley face.
I dunno about that... if this thing really unravels to its full potential, market won't be able to ignore it. IMO - muted reaction at this point is simply market's hesitation about how to react as real scale and the path of the events remains unknown and situation remains highly liquid. If situation was pretty clear and market didn't react, then yes, I would evaluate it as ignoring the event.
TOF - speaking of mobile apps...do you still like STVI.OB?
Or were you in that just for a scalp a while back?
I actually like that long term, own it, and wanted to thank you for posting about it many moons ago.
banking institutions more dangerous to our liberties than armies
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."
- T Jefferson.
Evolving Gold
Hi All - News on one of the litter today: Under the terms of the Letter Agreement, Agnico-Eagle (USA) Ltd. (Agnico-Eagle) has the option to earn up to a 70% interest in the Rattlesnake Hills project by carrying Evolving Gold through completion of a feasibility study. In order to earn a 70% interest over a seven-year period Agnico-Eagle is required to make payments to EVG totaling $12 million, to purchase $23 million in the common shares of EVG, and to expend a minimum of $41 million on exploration/development work on the project. Happy Trading
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
My take on Greece is that nothing is happening here other than a bit of negotiating for 2012 in terms of that country probably needing to get more hand-outs then, especially if in the interim their people force the govt's hand on restraint measures that Euroland wants to see.
Re: banking institutions more dangerous to our liberties ...
Spurious quotation... one of those falsifications flooding the e-mails and blogs.
http://www.snopes.com/quotes/jefferson/banks.asp
http://www.monticello.org/site/jefferson/private-b...
Re: banking institutions more dangerous to our liberties ...
i stand corrected. but still believe their have been no positive change to prevent a repeat, and the culprits run wild.
Comex Monopoly to END !!
The Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange (HKMEx) has received authorisation from the Securities and Futures Commission and will make its trading debut on May 18, 2011 with the 1-kilo gold futures contract offered in US dollars with physical delivery in Hong Kong.
The ATS authorisation grants HKMEx the right to offer market participants, through its member firms, the use of its state-of-the-art electronic platform to trade commodities. The Exchange will begin trading with at least 16 members including some of the world’s largest financial institutions as well as several well-established brokerages in Hong Kong.
Re: When is a job, not a job?
Hi Scott,
I'm in Illinois. Are you also in the Midwest?
Grym
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
Vad,
In your opinion did Moody's do a better job of rating pre-2007-8 downer than S&P.
Grym
SPX 15min
Just a FYI. Been watching this channel. If it makes a run to the 78.6% Fib then that could fill a gap on BGZ at 32.60ish. Also the 78.6 Fib on BGZ is ~ 32.53. Depending on the MCAD I will open up a short at this point.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=7&id=p13183187473&a=233714281
Re: banking institutions more dangerous to our liberties ...
Hi NYUGrad, it sure sounded cool.
Someone sent me this
Psychology 101
If you start with a cage containing five monkeys and inside the cage, hang a banana on a string from the top and then you place a set of stairs
under the banana, before long a monkey will go to the stairs and climb toward the banana.
As soon as he touches the stairs, you spray all the other monkeys with cold water. After a while another monkey makes an attempt with the same result – all the other monkeys are sprayed with cold water. Pretty soon when another monkey tries to climb the stairs, the other monkeys will try to prevent it.
Now, put the cold water away.
Remove one monkey from the cage and replace it with a new one. The new monkey sees the banana and attempts to climb the stairs. To his shock, all of the other monkeys beat the crap out of him. After another attempt and attack, he knows that if he tries to climb the stairs he will be assaulted.
Next, remove another of the original five monkeys, replacing it with a new one. The newcomer goes to the stairs and is attacked. The previous newcomer takes part in the punishment....with enthusiasm.
Then, replace a third original monkey with a new one, followed by a fourth, then the fifth. Every time the newest monkey takes to the stairs he is attacked. Most of the monkeys that are beating him up have no idea why they were not permitted to climb the stairs. Neither do they know why they are participating in the beating of the newest monkey.
Finally, having replaced all of the original monkeys, none of the remaining monkeys will have ever been sprayed with cold water. Nevertheless, none of the monkeys will try to climb the stairway for the banana.
Why, you ask? Because in their minds.... that is the way it has always been!
This, my friends, is how Congress operates...and is why, from time to time, all of the monkeys need to be REPLACED AT THE SAME TIME.
Re: Mitek (MITK.ob)
Thanks for the heads up on this one.
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
Grym,
I haven't tracked them comparatively, but to me it's marginal difference at best... Lenin, when asked who was a better candidate to lead the state, Stalin or Trotsky, answered: "Both are worse." Quite fitting, IMO :)
Re: TOF - speaking of mobile apps...do you still like STVI.OB?
Hey Nebish - I sold STVI way too soon. I think I made about 30% on it and watched it go up another 50%. Great little company but it hit my target market cap. I personally don't think they have a ton of more room to grow and they are becoming a riskier story....they raised capital to use in building more apps which is a risky business because competition in the apps business is crazy.
MITK is a different story. I think their opportunity is much larger and their business model is excellent. Just based on mobile deposit I think this can reach a $1 Billion market cap. Mobile bill pay is still an unknown so I haven't assigned any value to it. Same goes with the mobile paper document capture opportunities in front of it in the medical / insurance industries. Just no way of gauging them.
Knowing me I will sell after a big runup to like $20 a share and then watch it become a $10 Billion company. The hardest part in investing is knowing when to sell.
Re: banking institutions more dangerous to our liberties ...
Earl,
thanks for posting this. Pure beauty
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
Agree completely and that's what I tried to say on Friday.
Business is good for a lot of companies (I personally don't go for mobile apps), so spend your time figuring these out and worrying less about Greece which will just give us buying opportunities this time.
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
let's distinguish between "worrying" and "monitoring the development."
Re: banking institutions more dangerous to our liberties ...
You very welcome Vad. Take care
Earl
Q:Vadym
Vadym I am curious, when do you consider a gap filled in your T&A, when the entire candle body goes through the gap or does it only have to spike through to be considered filled?
Re: Q:Vadym
GW,
it's not really a hard science, there is a room for interpretations. To me, in most cases the tail of candle touching fill price is enough to consider gap filled since price did touch the level in question. More than that - if I see full body resting on that price I will doubt the reversal - absence of tail shows that there was not enough energy to bounce off of the gap fill price.
There are additional considerations like volume, general chart configuration etc. They make it all more fuzzy and harder to squeeze into hard rules. That's why they say TA is a mix of science and art...
Home Prices Fall Again In Biggest Drop Since 2008
http://uleak.it/?296
Just the shadow inventory, i believe remains at 9 months backlog or 1.2M homes, and that boat is taking on water as you shovel out the old.
Liquidating all my props and consolidating eventually to one without mortgage, for shelter.
Rates wont stay this low forever. and when they do rise initially, it will be hard to sell homes. No one can afford 50% down and 9% mortgage interest payments.
the debt issue of the country and its people, will be a looong slog. people will actually have to save up to buy a home.
Banks Require Struggling Homeowners to Waive Rights - fine print
http://uleak.it/?297
Read the fine print folks.
The State of the Government's Loan Modification Program
http://uleak.it/?298
Re: Home Prices Fall Again In Biggest Drop Since 2008
I have a couple of friends that work for BAC in the mortgage department. They said the inventory of unsold homes is still huge and probably won't be cleared for a couple of years still. Housing prices here in San Diego are actually really reasonable. I personally prefer renting because of the flexibility and because I prefer moving around, but I did actually meet with a bank a couple of weeks ago to survey the market and get approved for a loan. There are plenty of properties in the San Diego area that are down over 50% and with mortgage rates this low the total monthly cost is pretty reasonable.
Re: Q:Vadym
Thanks! [ That's why they say TA is a mix of science and art...] Just wanted to check to see if I should consider another size paint brush. ;-)
Re: Q:Vadym
Whatever paint brush works for YOU :)
This article touches on that topic: http://blog.realitytrader.com/2007/04/what-do-your...
Re: Home Prices Fall Again In Biggest Drop Since 2008
thx. I actually love san diego, and will be there in 2 weeks on vaca.
Its on my short list of places to move. what areas you recommend? I dont like downtown gas lamp. prefer north areas like la jolla but not as pricey.
Would not mind a small bungalow with a detached rental unit.
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
Vad,
"Lenin, when asked who was a better candidate to lead the state, Stalin or Trotsky, answered: "Both are worse." Quite fitting, IMO :)"
LOL. Some things seem to be universal and timeless.
I couldn't remember thinking any ratings agencies were useful a few years back. Perhaps they never were — just not yet exposed.
Thanks,
Grym
Re: Home Prices Fall Again In Biggest Drop Since 2008
NYUGrad,
I remember reading about a huge supply of modular shipping containers ending up on the west coast due to such a one way trade imbalance and sketches of homes made from them. last week I saw photos of an architectural firm with their office made from one.
Perhaps mobile homes will be an increasingly lucrative market.
Any thoughts?
Grym
Edit: http://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images?_adv_...
The workers dying to meet iPad 2 demand
http://bit.ly/kM7Igo
As much as I like Apple's products I think their decision to stick with Foxconn is a mistake and am not going to be buying an iPad or anything else made by them until they sort it out properly. Why doesn't Apple set up their own production facility in China instead of contracting it out to these tyrants?
Re: Home Prices Fall Again In Biggest Drop Since 2008
I live in north Pacific Beach/Birdrock...love this area. The main part of PB, which is about a mile south of where I am, is a big party area. Encinitas, Solana Beach and Delmar are all really nice coastal towns, but they're pretty expensive. Anything east of route 5 is pretty cheap housing but then you're not a stone's throw from the beach. I'd personally rather live near the beach and rent than own and live away from it.
Re: Home Prices Fall Again In Biggest Drop Since 2008
PB! Full-on DUDE. I wouldn't bail either. Dude take in some curls and then slide down to Lahina's for some pops. That is just sick. Killer dude.
Re: The workers dying to meet iPad 2 demand
Disgusting. Apple should be ashamed.
Grym
See the Post-Close Report
Above.
Re: See the Post-Close Report
While speaking of metals in your report, I have noticed copper has a lower open interest than last year this time (and lowest of the year to date). Could it be nearing a trade-able bottom?
http://snalaska.net/cot/current/charts/HG.png
Re: The workers dying to meet iPad 2 demand
Hi Grym, I'm getting caught up. I don't buy Nike because their shoes are made by what i consider to be slave labor. But these days, what's not made there (china)? Im typing on an iPhone, there's no reason for me not to believe the story but I do question most things. Its like me to show this to a apple store manager and ask them their opinion, in front of others.
This brings me to a very thought provoking WIR from Bill. Bill puts so much effort into these. I'm going to take his DOW challenge to start getting to know a selected number of them but I'm seriousally investing money in some gold miners including rangold and a number of others mentioned before. Bill picked WMT which is not for me, I believe they distroy communities by exploiting diversity and sucking off funds that would in the past circulate within the community for the most part and created the country we had before WMT became successful. You want to distroy your community, go to walmart! That's just how this one person sees that thing. But I'm sure Bill is right about their profit potential, unfortunately. But there are many others. If I had started one of his plans years ago I might actually have some money but it's a bit late for me to be changing plans when I've just decided on PMs and hydrocarbons, drillers and miners. I have a few techs too but with my latest deposit I added a 3k more PMV so now I have quite a few shares. Daytrading is off at least for now, too much going on...
Take care Grym
Earl
Re: Greek tragedy continuing
I find it interesting how people believe this is a bull market and simply focus on bottom up analysis. To sum it up the Government is running an unsustainable budget deficit and the Fed is pumping an unsustainable amount of liquidity into the system. Its just that simple. just like sandpiles we will soon reach critical mass and one grain of sand will bring down the whole pile. After watching people lose massive amounts of money twice over the last ten years I don't feel a bit sorry for them when it happens again. Team, did you buy that over the counter stock from First Jersey Securities?