CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
[7:35am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.
We experienced a small rally yesterday, but nothing to write home about. Basically, no bad news coming from Europe so the 3 positive US economic reports lifted the market. Retail sales and the Empire State Manufacturing survey were positive while PPI showed that inflation was momentarily negative due to a drop in energy costs in October.
Another positive spin for the market was the news that Warren Buffet and Berkshire Hathaway had bought $11 billion worth of IBM stock over the last 8 months…seems a little strange to me, doesn’t Buffet advocate buying when “blood is in the streets”? We are long IBM.
That good news was short lived as we wake up to higher bonds yields in Italy, Spain and France. Apparently, the ECB is stepping in to avoid a complete rout in government bonds but not enough to stop a decline in the stock market. As I continue to say, until we get resolution in Europe and traders are confident that the ECB will completely support the euro, the markets will be choppy and direction will not be clear.
If you would like to view a measure of risk in the Italian bond markets, go here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.IT10:IND
For now, we continue to trade within the range, forming a possible trading triangle that I mentioned a few days ago. Until we break out of that range, everything else is just noise. We are in wait and see mode.
Have a great trading day!
Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.
| Symbol | Name | Last Trade | Change | Related Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^ATX | ATX | 1,873.00 |
 36.80 (1.93%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^BFX | BEL-20 | 2,056.03 |
11.85 (0.57%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FCHI | CAC 40 | 3,042.56 |
6.57 (0.22%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^GDAXI | DAX | 5,877.20 |
55.94 (0.94%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^AEX | AEX General | 292.35 |
0.58 (0.20%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^OSEAX | OSE All Share | 441.78 |
 0.82 (0.19%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^OMXSPI | Stockholm General | 298.24 |
1.32 (0.44%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SSMI | Swiss Market | 5,664.78 |
0.13 (0.00%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FTSE | FTSE 100 | 5,467.36 |
50.08 (0.91%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| FPXAA.PR | PX Index | 888.60 |
3.40 (0.38%) |
Chart, More |
| ESI500000000.MA | IGBM | 827.10 |
1.75 (0.21%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| MICEXINDEXCF.ME | MICEX Index | 1,487.38 |
0.46 (0.03%) |
Chart, More |
| GD.AT | Athex Composite Share Price Index | 717.73 |
17.92 (2.44%) |
Chart, More |
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL
The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.
Enjoy your day.
Cara on Trends & Cycles
Vad's Catch of the Day
Kaimu's Sound Money
John's Between the Lines
Good Morning!
My name is John Mugarian and I was a stockbroker for 14 years (A.G.Edwards / J.C. Bradford, “Pain”Webber, UBS – I misspelled Paine on purpose). I am now a registered investment advisor with my own firm.
I was always labeled a “top producer”. That’s a label given for the highest revenue generators, and not necessarily the best in giving financial advice. The main reason for any successes I had was I really enjoyed what I was doing, and worked night and day at being the best at what I was doing. Investors saw this passion/work ethic and became clients.
During my 14-year tenure, I built relationships with some heavy hitters on Wall Street. I did a few seminars with one of these fellows and, to keep from name-dropping, I’ll just leave it at that.
Back in my coaching days (baseball at the collegiate level), I did a lot of motivational speaking. The speaking skills I gained really helped me when I held seminars. One of my Wall Street friends complemented me on my speaking skills one day, and suggested I pursue the financial newsletter business, which had been a dream of mine since I first began as a broker.
Obviously, I didn’t know how to go about securing a position of this kind, so my new friend contacted Phillips Publishing. The next thing I knew I was going to Maryland for an interview.
Why did I want to do this? Because I knew after many years as a financial advisor that something in the retail investment business wasn’t right. Everything was about generating revenue for the firm, and nothing about generating returns for clients. Monday morning sales meetings were just that, sales meeting. I guess if you’re in the investment business to just make money for yourself, that business model fits just fine.
The premier issue of my newsletter came out in February 2004, which also coincided with the World Money Show in Orlando at the Gaylord Palms Resort. The newsletter was called, John Mugarian’s Investor Alert, and Phillips thought saving investors from the evils of Wall Street would be a hit. I knew that this bashing Wall Street approach wouldn’t last very long because investor’s memories of past misdeeds shorten with every new bull market.
In addition, it’s tough to beat Wall Street when they start an advertising campaign. They have ads on TV as well as CNBC, Cramer, Bloomberg, and various other ways to promote themselves, and we only had the internet and the U.S. mail.
To say I was excited would be an understatement since my name was suddenly appearing with some of the most famous personalities on Wall Street. In fact, when I was a broker I had subscriptions to the newsletters of some of the same people I was having dinner with and appearing with on the speaking circuit.
When I arrived at The Gaylord Palms, the Phillips management told me I would be speaking at several individual breakout rooms during the day, and appearing on the Phillips InvestorPlace All-Star panel in the main auditorium on February 4th. The only word I really understood during that conversation was “All-Star”, so naturally I had to ask what that was.
I was told I would be on a panel with Richard Band, Dan Weiner, Michael Murphy, Louis Navellier, John Dessauer, Toby Smith, and a few other guys. We would each give a 5-7 minute speech on the markets and our top 2 or 3 stock picks. I was also told there would be a few thousand people there. I can tell you right now, I had been a subscriber to the newsletters of five of the guys I would be speaking with.
I pulled Louie Navellier aside and said, “Hey Louie, I’m a little nervous here.” He said, don’t worry about it, just do your thing and you’ll be fine”.
I guess I was as nervous about the content of my 5-7 minute speech as much as I was appearing with this panel of distinguished guests. The content of my speech was, to put it mildly, a little controversial.
About two hours before the InvestorPlace All-Star panel presentation, I had left the resort to go fill up my car. I remember it like it was yesterday – $1.60/ gallon. While I was filling up I was thinking about my speech and thought, “Mugarian, they’re going to laugh you right off the stage”.
We all took our places on the elevated stage, I looked to my left and right at my colleagues and thought, “I took his newsletter, and his, and his…”. As I looked down at my notes I was thinking, “Should I, or shouldn’t I?” Finally I said the heck with it, tell them what you think.
A few guys spoke before me, then it was my turn. Thank goodness my speaking skills kicked in. Now was the moment of truth.
I made a prediction that over the next few years, gasoline prices and oil prices were going a lot higher. At the time, the excuse I gave was the demand coming from China and India. In truth I knew a little more than I had let on.
In my breakout rooms speeches I said gasoline prices were going to $3.00/ gallon and oil prices were going to $150/ barrel. You could have heard a pin drop. Mind you, I had just filled up my car two hours earlier at $1.60/ gallon.
At dinner that night, John Dessauer cornered me and said, “Where are you getting your information concerning $3.00 a gallon gasoline?” I get that comment a lot nowadays. I didn’t really want to tell him but felt I had to after he said, “The Chinese and Indians won’t allow oil prices to go that high because they will quit driving”. Finally, I threw him a little bone and said that I met with and corresponded with Jim Rogers. Rogers wasn’t my only source of information, but he was one source. Dessauer basically told me I was wrong and there was no way crude prices would go to $150 and gas to $3.00 a gallon. I really didn’t want to argue with Dessauer. He was a 26-year newsletter veteran, and I was the rookie. As we flash forward a few years, I guess the rookie won that round.
Like you, I want to make money in the markets. I also want to keep from getting wiped out by the crooks on Wall Street. Remember, it’s a zero sum game. Everyday there are people on each side of a trade. Both think they’re right. Then somebody wins, and somebody loses. That’s what makes a market, right?
Oh, I think it’s a lot more complicated than that…
What I have learned over the years is when it comes to the stock market, we are only invited guests. It’s like being invited to play in someone else’s backyard. But one thing they don’t tell you when you’re invited in is that there is a pit-bull behind the garage, and a Doberman in the house. We don’t own the stock market, we don’t call the shots, we have no control and the moment you think you do, you’ll get mauled and maimed.
The key to not getting mauled in someone else's backyard is to really know what you’re dealing with. Read about the history of the stock market. Then read the writings of the most famous investors since its beginning. Read what they say about bull and bear markets, the good times and the depression. Get a sense and feel for what you are dealing with.
To give you a clue, famous New York gangster Charlie “Lucky” Luciano was interviewed after he visited the trading floor of the NYSE. When explained the roll of a specialist, Luciano said:
“A terrible thing happened. I realized I'd joined the wrong mob."
And a mob it is.
It’s not a mob if you can tell me…
1) How a trader can push a button and send the entire stock market crashing:
1999- U.K: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/market-report-ftse-falls-as-t...
May 2010- 1000 point sell-off: http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/trading-error-todd-h...
2) Who caused the 1987 market crash or the NASDAQ crash in 2000? It wasn’t mutual funds, pension funds, and small investors all telepathically working together and selling at the same time, they took big losses too. If it wasn’t them then who was it?
3) Just before 911, who bought the huge number of put options on American Airlines and United just days before they crashed into the World Trade Center? Our government has not said a word.
http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/6/2/62018.shtml
I could go on and on, but you get the idea. For the sake of time I’ll cut it short.
As Bill Cara has so eloquently shown this community, everything isn’t necessarily as it seems. “Social Equity” is something we all strive for, but in my opinion doesn’t exist. There are forces that control the markets, economy, Washington, and leaders around the globe.
Bill has given this community a wonderful gift. Paying attention and trading prices (thru the RSI tools), instead of buying and selling a company name. This is invaluable advice. His ability to interconnect the RSI technicals with a big picture investing approach brings everything together.
In the November 13th “Week in Review #46”, Bill made some important points about the new heads of Greece and Italy, and their connection with the “New World Order” elite. This is of course the Trilateral Commission, the Bilderberg Group, and all the interconnected players’ in-between.
When I made my call on oil a few years ago, I got some input from Jim Rogers, but also cross-referenced it with a series of articles coming from the confabs of the elite.
Regardless of where you live, there is always someone in a town or city that has more power and influence than the individuals that live in the community. They usually have this power and influence because they have more money. Now expand this out to the most powerful and influential person in your county, state, nation, and the world, and you’ll see how politicians are bought, elected, and eventually vote. Expand this out and you’ll see how a nation gets saddled in debt. Expand this out and you’ll see why wars are fought. The more you expand this the bigger the influence, power and money becomes. Eventually, it becomes one big salad of dog poop.
We can look at RSI’s, supply and demand, a companies earnings report, but until we know the rest of the story, what the power and influence have up their sleeves, we are setting ourselves up for a potential mauling.
I’ll leave you with this video of Dick Cheney taking a question from one of his bosses.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbnpN07J_zg
CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Comments
New writer will join us today
Blogger, newsletter writer and Registered Investment Advisor John Mugarian will join the CaraCommunity team today. He'll be controversial.
Brookfield in court again
The M.O. of the Brascan/Brookfield Boys, as introduced here several years ago in the case of Stelco, is back under the microscope. Sooner or later the world will get to know these people for what they are.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/...
See John's Between the Lines
Cara Community's newest contributor, John Mugarian, kicks off his "Between the Lines" column today.
Continued bad behavior from HB&B is assured
Say we know someone who robbed a bank of $1 million and was caught. But, rather than be going to jail, that robber was allowed to pay $285,000 to the government – call it a tax on income – in return for which they were set free without admitting or denying any wrongdoing. Would they rob the bank again?
Oh, I think the odds are pretty much 100% they will. And that’s the problem today -- only the robberies are not just for a million here and there, but mega-billions. Not only are the police never called in, the pseudo police of the treasury department, called the securities commission, have jurisdiction, and they say that as long as the government gets their taxable piece of the “income”, all is ok by them.
But, is it? Here’s the rub. The bank robber happens to be the bank manager, someone who has access to all the cash in that bank, and threatens to use it to defend his “Get out of jail free” rights. The authorities, being agencies of government, are worried about the over-spending needed to prosecute the law, which taxpayers would react unkindly to, so they throw their hands up and surrender.
But, these are the authorities who are surrendering, not the robbers.
The robber, er bank manager, is off the hook, the recipient of a single lesson: rob the people and get caught, then be prepared to pay taxes; but don’t get caught and evade taxes. No matter – nobody’s going to jail.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/...
Is it any wonder why Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) is growing more powerful by the month?
Cara 100 Ratings Changes For Wednesday
Good morning.
07:00 MBA Mortgage Index(-10%)
08:30 CPI
09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows
09:15 Industrial Production
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
10:30 Crude Inventories
------
There are NO Cara 100 Changes to report at this time.
------
"Any man who is under 30, and is not a liberal, has no heart; and any man who is over 30, and is not a conservative, has no brains."
- Sir Winston Churchill (1874-1965)
Re: New writer will join us today
Thank you, John, for sharing your insight. Controversial or not, opinion from one who has been 'there', information, is always worth a listen; it's what we do with it that is important. Thank you Bill, for this great community of folks you have brought together.
Re: Continued bad behavior from HB&B is assured
Thank you Bill, thank you John - that's enough depressive thoughts for one morning :)
It makes perfect sense of the missing money in the MF Global case. No one need admit liability.
Early ECB pressure has done little to reduce sovereign yields this morning. The pressure is ratcheting up...
CS negative 2012 & 2013 forecasts for euro-area GDP
• The euro area continues to lurch unsteadily towards fiscal union and into recession. Recent changes in government in Greece and Italy are symptoms of a loss of economic sovereignty that should be - but are not yet - matched by greater mutualisation of financial risk. At the least these changes reduce implementation risk in those member states.
• But this is not enough to bring the euro area financial crisis to a close, in our view. And we think the uncertainty and financial volatility, ongoing since the end of June, have not been resolved rapidly or effectively enough to prevent recession. Business surveys are now at levels consistent with outright declines in euro area GDP and look likely to weaken further.
• The political uncertainty and financial volatility have depressed business and household confidence. And financial distress within the euro area has been sustained long enough to impact growth. The sharp outflows of liquidity from troubled countries have manifested themselves in many ways, most notably through wider government bond spreads. But, for the real economy the main pressure has come through the banking sector: there has been a sharp rise in banks' marginal funding costs, in turn leading to tighter lending standards.
• We now expect the euro area economy to contract in the next couple of quarters, with a peak-to-trough decline of around 1%. The economy should recover in H2 2012, and we think the risk of a more severe recession can be limited by a resilient global economy and pockets of strength within the euro area - in the corporate sector and domestic German economy. We now look for euro area GDP to contract by 0.5% in 2012 and rise by 1.7% in 2013. The UK is likely to skirt recession, and we see growth of just 0.7% next year.
• But the risks are still squarely to the downside. In particular we are concerned that 2012 sees an intensification of the financial crisis, exacerbated by recession, putting further pressure on euro area governments and banks. The risk is that recession leads to fiscal slippage, in turn prompting a further loss of confidence in sovereigns. With financing needs still extremely high in many euro area countries - especially Italy - that could be extremely disruptive.
• Those risks don't have to materialise. The euro area has many strong fundamentals - healthy corporate cash flows, a nascent consumer spending recovery in Germany and, in aggregate, better fiscal metrics than the US or UK. But the extent to which it can benefit from them will remain limited by the unwillingness and inability of its policymakers to take bold, timely and decisive action to address its financial problems. In reality, that means the ECB. And although we expect the ECB to cut rates to 0.75%, it will need to be more assertive in its intervention in bond markets to prevent a deeper and longer contraction, we think.
-------------
I think Credit Suisse has made a forecast here on the basis of a series of forecasts, which is kind of like betting a trifecta or even superfecta. To determine the probability of recession in Europe in 2012 (they say contraction of -0.5% in GDP), one would have to know: (i) the timing and extent of the ECB actions to (a) cut rates, and (b) buy bonds, (ii) the outcome of the French election, (iii) global demand for Eurozone goods and services, (iv) the success or failure of the various govt austerity programs (austerity in the short run means economic slowdown) and (v) the success or failure of the various anti-govt movements, including the Occupy people, and so forth. But, overall, I think CS does a good job at presenting their views and they should be taken into consideration when making decisions.
As I see it, the ECB is up against the wall: it will expand its balance sheet, which will push the prices of gold, oil and equities and the bond yields higher, which in turn will support their purchase of bonds at low prices. Bond investors are taking a beating. Even in Germany today, which has turned out to be the safe-haven place for bond investors, the debts to GDP are in a sorry state, at least as bad as Italy and France, leading me to believe those purchasers of German bonds are going to get absolutely slaughtered in future years.
Another miner takeover?
(Reuters) - China's Shandong Gold Group, the parent of Shandong Gold Mining (600547.SS) and a big gold producer, has made a $1 billion offer to acquire Brazil's Jaguar Mining (JAG.N) (JAG.TO), two sources close to the deal told Reuters on Wednesday.
Shandong Gold is offering $9.3 per share in cash, a 73 percent premium to Jaguar's Tuesday close in New York.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/16/us-jagua...
FD long JAG.
The downside for us lazy "buy and hold" types is that every takeover, while nice if your entry was good, means more work required to reinvest the proceeds.
RE: 3) Just before 911, who bought the huge number of put option
RE: "3) Just before 911, who bought the huge number of put options on American Airlines and United just days before they crashed into the World Trade Center? Our government has not said a word."
Actually my neighbor, full fledged american guy, chemist working for a paper company and amateur trader did that just before 9/11. He later told me that he expected another leg down and saw airlines especially vulnerable. It was obvious on T/A. Some obscure newsletter also recommended doing that and he pulled a trigger. He was very lucky. He retired soon after that and now drives a Porsche. He was interviewed by police and FBI multiple times mind you and they found no dirt on him.
So much for conspiracies.
Edit: this link supports my neighbor's story (read last lines).
http://www.snopes.com/rumors/putcall.asp
Cara 100 Update
BIDU - Raymond James Initiates with a Strong Buy.
DOW - Morgan Stanley Initiates with an Equal Weight.
Woori set to sue foreign banks over derivatives
Woori Bank, South Korea’s largest lender by assets, intends to sue Citigroup, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Royal Bank of Scotland over derivatives losses of about $300m, the latest legal move against global banking giants that sold risky structured debt.
The move would mark the first lawsuit by a major South Korean financial institution against global banks for derivatives losses related to the US subprime loan crisis that sparked the 2008 financial crisis.
Woori Bank, a unit of Woori Financial Group, is South Korea’s largest victim of the US subprime mortgage mess. It was forced to write off most of its $1.5bn worth of investments in credit default swaps and collateralised debt obligations – a form of bundled and structured debt – made in 2005 and 2006.
FULL STORY:
http://on.ft.com/vVn9Xn
TLR - Bazz
It's not trading - something up? or is it just me...
Re: TLR - Bazz
haven't looked this am... could be permit.. noted yesterday. the back and fill is amazing.. give it a kick in the backside. Remember the naked ratio's we looked at 3 months ago ? Don't think it will take much motivation to scramble the egg !!
Re: TLR - Bazz
must have been a minor problem - it's trading now, nothing new to see at the moment.
at 18:48:36 there was a error 100 share trade at .895 - I guess that may have caused it to open a few minutes late who knows. thanks.
Interesting action in silver this morning
someone just dumped on slv with big volume and bounced straight off the lower support channel of this potential triangle setting up. SLW recovering fast. HB&B screwdoodling weak hands? As always we shall see. Might be worth waiting a db with tight stop. JMO
some securities broke out from triangles
India is a good example: INP. Leading?
Solyndra and Keystone: Dual debacles
For anyone who's interested in the Keystone issue - This link was sent out by Congressman Pete Olson this morning. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/nov/15/so...
The Energy Department has spent the past three years promoting a carbon-dioxide-free America. It’s left-wing dogma that the natural byproduct of respiration and combustion offends Mother Earth.
Earl
XLF jumped again from the 12.835 support
Just like yesterday. It's a magic line indeed.
Re: some securities broke out from triangles
RSX, not so good. Outperforming SPY to the downside. GLD ain't so hot either.
Cara 100 Update (Final)
WMT - estimates reduced at BMO through 2012. Company is seeing slower traffic and lower margins. Market Perform rating and $58 price target.
did anyone see that jump in oil and drop in nat gas?
Is Iran war coming or what?
John Mugarian
John I have read your postings elsewhere, and it's great to be able to welcome you here.
Re: Solyndra and Keystone: Dual debacles
Earl, "...left wing dogma..." as in "science"?
Ciao, Z.
No conscience, no worries...
Olbermann's 8 minute assessment of the Emperor of NYC and his merry band of highly pensioned thugs;
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/11/15/keith-olberm...
Bloomberg Forever! The brighter the light shines on these psychopaths, the less darkness we will have.
Re: did anyone see that jump in oil and drop in nat gas?
One never knows - my WLT calls are green at least for now...
RE: 3) Just before 911, who bought the huge number of put option
jack black,
It is widely known that the perpetrators of 9/11 did so when the US economy was weak and getting weaker. Obviously there were many put buyers among us at the time. I don't think John was saying that all the put buying ahead of 9/11 came from front-runners who knew what was likely to happen.
The point I want people to understand, and that John understands and is making, is not any different than when I write about forces in the market that are bigger than the regulators ability to control, like the comment I made this morning about HB&B and robbing banks, or when I once wrote about Hugo Chavez being able to front-run his starting up the tanks and sending them to the oil fields in Venezuela or extinguishing the rights of foreign investors like Crystallex (KRY.TO).
What we all hope that John tries to do here is answer the public's biggest question, which is who are the puppeteers, the people like David Rockefeller who work behind the scenes to orchestrate political and market episodes that push prices in their favor. We want him to name names and show evidence. If people in this community see that is his mission, they will help. He will get lots of background material to help him write purposeful blogs, knowing he will put his reputation on the line, like I do and kaimu does.
I explained to John that he has to cross the line from being on that stage at Orlando to being on the other side, the side of the audience, in their midst, not a guru, but a facilitator, someone who will help people focus their thinking. Individually, some of the audience will have read most of the source material he uses, but most will be unaware. What is important is that he becomes a person to link the dots, and do so credibly. Nobody here wants another fear monger to cloud the airwaves. So, I advised John that it's important to always be focused on providing evidence to calmly made claims -- no matter how outrageous those claims may seem to be. If he manages the process gracefully, the audience will hang in, and as I say will help him. You all want everybody here to help, and you are a positive group, knowing that my associates are well chosen.
Btw, John does know Jim Rogers personally and has done business with him. Many people in this community think I am anti-Rogers. That's not the case. All I happen to be is anti-anybody who is on a one-way sound track. To me, making a statement is one-third of anything; it's the giving of evidence that needs to be two-thirds, and then there needs to be a many-to-many discussion. That’s the way people best learn. I happen to see Rogers as a stream of the exact same consciousness that I heard from him 25 years ago. That’s not to say I don’t think he’s brilliant – he is – or not helpful – he is. I hope John can bring Rogers’ opinions into his work for us as I believe that would add value.
Triangle Found
#100020 closed for small gain. e for effort.
p.s. thank you ovidet and tradelady!
Re: No conscience, no worries...
Hi Pulse - I still believe in a re-direct, occupy congress. Bloomberg Now, Bloomberg Tomorrow, Bloomberg Forever! - that was worth the listen I laughed my azz off. Maybe one day the Hoi Poli can hang their hat on one issue - the core issue to me is congress. They write themselves 'outside' the law.
Earl
2012 rollover (Italy's debt)
#Italy to sell EUR440bln of debt in 2012 (Italian debt office head), debt/GDP to be as much as 120% in 2011. Wt Avg Fixed Coupon 4.15% now.
http://twitter.com/#!/lindayueh
An Actionable Idea
Expressing one's concerns to Congress would be of value (I think).
Here is the link:
http://www.contactingthecongress.org/
Crocodile Gold
CRK.TO now down to $.33, getting into the value zone. I think all the bad news has been discounted and then some. Opportunity never looked so ugly.
Cramer: This NATGAS Act Won't Pass
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11312866/1/cramer-t...
Some group out there is hell bent on boxing this country and our people into... I have no clue what... It's been reported to me before that every dollar spent on Arib oil winds up being circulated through the banks of england, located in england... - I figure they don't want to change this $ pipeline so any solution in America is DOA.
Re: Cramer: This NATGAS Act Won't Pass
The way the natgas dropping like a rock lately gives me an indication no go on this. The natgas/oil ratio just broke the previous record low. I tried the long natgas trade before and was stopped every time.
Attn: bulls
Italian yield just crossed 7% again (despite big ECB intervention today).
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR1...
Greek 1 year bond yield is especially entertaining to watch: 271%
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB1YR...
Spanish yields going up nonstop. What if margin call is triggered by those?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPG10Y...
Re: Cramer: This NATGAS Act Won't Pass
Jack, I can't believe WPRT and CLNE are holding up here but I've got a bit of an eye on them to front run the truth on this issue. We all know who has interest in Brazil oil. why stop at giving them billions to drill so deep and risk another BP... lets send them trillions, our first born... common pres lets ship them our gold too.
Welcome to John
I found your comments interesting and informative, and look forward to any insights that will help to decipher and understand this market.
John's Between the Lines
Welcome to my education, John.
My goal at "The House that Cara built" is to advance the art/skill of discernment. I have embraced and discarded many characters of reference in my studies. Bill started this selfless and relentless devotion to Social Equity; I admire his ability to discern, perhaps even more than his cycle management skill.
Your first post includes the reference to what many will consider 'the tin-foil hat' topic of 9-11 'conspiracy theory' as soon as mentioned. This indicates a tenacious devotion to facts, and less concern with group perception. From a guy long on tin futures - Thank you.
I am searching for a Relative Strength Index of deception. John, would you be kind enough to share the process of truth seeking which you employ?
Respectfully,
pulse
Does this make sense longer term?
As the whole world plays musical chairs with currencies:
• Euro looking worse with little chance for improvement
• Dollar looks better relative to most other currencies
• Dollar strength will bring down equity markets globally
In spite of dollar relativity — gold maintains flight to safety top slot.
Grym
Qtrade #1 for sixth straight year
http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/static/busines...
ROB is impressed with Qtrade's "Relentless improvement".
Re: Solyndra and Keystone: Dual debacles
Hi Zed - How about those Bakken/Niobrara explorers today - guess we might need some oil & gas going forward despite the science of the progressives. Heck we don't need the government to grant tax breaks for natural gas conversions of automobiles & light truck - let the free markets govern this. Also i sure hope we don't get an explosive caldera event to ruin our nice warm atmosphere. Happy Trading
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/chri...
http://www.ngvamerica.org/pdfs/marketplace/MP.Anal...
Greetings John Mugarian
I’m wishing to welcome you here and am looking forward to reading more. I’ve done my own research on CFR – this used to get my blood boiling. I’m new to trading and managing my own trading account, and somewhat new to all this political mess, started paying more attention about 5 years ago. If I can maintain a single lane I’m hoping to do better than -25% a year – growing pains… Thanks for joining us.
Earl
Run on European Debt Underway: Bail or Fail
Who makes the call? Here's the sovereign debt picture:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-govtb...
Spreads are on the move again today AND "tomorrow the French are gonna go out and hawk something like €25 billion in two-to-five year debt; the Spanish are also putting out something like €4 billion." - Gonzalo Lira
Lira links to a Zero Hedge chart showing the sales here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/image...
Does Societe Generale, France's largest bank, go down on Italian sovereign default or does the new Italian PM from Goldman Sachs and the ECB honchos with Goldman Sachs ties coordinate with the Fed and U.S. Treasury boys from Goldman Sachs to EXPAND THE MONEY SUPPLY?
Wonder if ECB and the Bernank have the same Crap-My-Pants spread trigger on the French:German 10-year debt for more backdoor QE? The higher the spreads go, the more funny money will be needed to abate the outgoing flows.
Got gold?
Edit: This situation is really hampering the Bernank's ability to suppress the 10-year t bill with Operation Twist.
Welcome and Thank you John
Great info. Appeals to my admitted bias, but a person would have to be an idiot to miss the signals. Sadly many people are unconcerned and busy watching 'dancing with the stars' or American Idol.
Is it just me, or does David Rockefeller resemble someone we know? Art imitating life or life imitating art?
http://images.wikia.com/simpsons/images/6/6a/Mr_Bu...
Monti forms new Italian govt with no politicians
I read that as, without ANY representation by the PEOPLE.
Proof of concept?
'The 68-year-old former European Union competition commissioner told reporters he will serve as Italy's economy minister as well as its premier as he seeks "sacrifices" from across the political spectrum to solve the economy's woes and get it growing again.'
'Monti gave few hints about his political program Wednesday. Explaining why his Cabinet had no one from Italy's fractious political parties, Monti said he decided after talks with party leaders "that the non-presence of politicians in the government would help it."'
You bet. It's much easier to steal from the people if you don't have to worry about being elected and are dropped in ALA Hank Paulson and none of their elected representatives are there to argue for them.
IOW, this is a financial coup d'etat.
Read more: http://www.theolympian.com/2011/11/15/1877906/repo...
Re: John's Between the Lines
Pulse,
Thank you.
I will do my best as we move forward.
As for the 9/11 conspiracy, I very little interest. There is plenty of speculation there to get us bogged down in everything but investing. The only thing I want to know from the SEC, or CBOE, is who bought the large # of puts on the airliners. If it was luck, or just a good trade, then great. Just tell us what happened.
If they do tell us, I'd like to have the persons name and number. If they run a mutual fund, I'd like to put some money with them.
I just brought this up as way of stimulating the thought process.
Another question I'd like answered is how does an investment bank trade for their own account for several quarters without incurring a single day of losses. Can they, or will they, do the same for us? Sign me up!
But, THIS doesn't fit the narrative!
Ruh Roh....up is down and down is up?
"Gingrich Was Paid ~$1.7M From GSEs"
"Wait, I thought this was all Barney Frank’s fault?"
"Newt Gingrich made between $1.6 million and $1.8 million in consulting fees from two contracts with mortgage company Freddie Mac, according to two people familiar with the arrangement."
"The total amount is significantly larger than the $300,000 payment from Freddie Mac that Gingrich was asked about during a Republican presidential debate on Nov. 9 sponsored by CNBC, and more than was disclosed in the middle of congressional investigations into the housing industry collapse."
"Here is the thing about not caring much about reality: If you are going to create a false narrative about the causes of an event, you must be aware of details, data and facts even if you don’t want to believe in them."
"Why? Because eventually in a modern, interconnected, socially leveraged, everyone has a camera attached to their phone society, the truth will eventually somehow works its way to the public."
"And if you are running for office making claims that are demonstrably false, its even more likely that somehow reality will intrude on your nice fantasy."
"Here is the even bigger joke: Gingrich was paid a self-renewing, monthly retainer of $25,000 – $30,000 between May 1999 until 2002. That is according to Bloomberg, who verified the contract with “three people familiar with aspects of the business agreement.” The kicker: Gingrich consulted with Freddie Mac executives on a program to expand home ownership, and “helped pitch the idea to President George W. Bush’s White House.”"
"Gingrich has previously said that “You ought to start with Barney Frank when talking about people to put in jail . . . Go back and look at the lobbyists he was close to at Freddie Mac.”
"Here is what I believe about the impact of this:
1) This was NOT a substantial cause of the Housing boom and bust;
2) The political party that controls the House, Senate and White House will have far more influence than the party that did not;
3) The hypocrisy of the false GOP narrative is astounding."
"I am sticking with my originally listed causes of the crisis. But I am upgrading Newt Gingrich from “Pompous Blowhard” to “Hypocritical Liar.”"
"And for the record, I do not believe either Frank or Gingrich caused the crisis . . ."
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/gingrich-was-...
PSLV Take down
Pro shares ultra silver 200% of daily silver returns is down 3.3% for a 2x fund in silver. On the other hand Sprot physical silver PSLV has plunged 6.7% today with silver down around 1.7% in the SLV fund.
What is up here
Got Anything
What do you do with several thousand unemployed troops?
U.S. Marines to Be Deployed in Australia
?????
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-16/u-s-marin...
Got MORE gold?
Re: But, THIS doesn't fit the narrative!
“….according to two people familiar with the arrangement.”
“…..three people familiar with aspects of the business agreement.”
unnamed sources; the most influential people of modern times.
Expanding home ownership
Yo Craig - Sounds like the progressive media is ramping up the attack on Gingrich in full force. In my busiess (mortgage lending) when realtors & buyers started demanding the 80/20 deals instead of the FHA low down payment mortgage (with mortgage insurance) I knew that things were out of kilter - that being under the Clinton regime back in the 1990's, but lets blame Bush since he wanted increased home ownership. Happy Trading
Re: New writer will join us today
At least this guy is honest enough to admit he is unethical. Maybe Madoff can contribute here since he is no longer managing people's assets. Not all "top producers" that work for big firms put their firms interest before their clients. From my point of view the biggest reason people leave big firms these days is they don't want to deal with compliance and regulation. From this guys own admission he needs it. I'm looking forward to the "entertainment"
Re: Expanding home ownership
Luggie, I like Gingrich, but unlike obama, Gingrich must withstand everything thrown at him to prove he's worthy of my vote so with that I say bring it on. They can bury Larry Sinclair's relationship with obama, I don't care but the next president of the US had better be vetted through and through. There is some evidence that Gringrich is also a member of CFR.
Earl
One of Bill's Whistler picks....RGX.V
Argex acquires another claim on Lac Brule property
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Argex-acquire-Qui...
More positive news.
Euro: Will they fail to bail?
Plenty of prognosis flying around... felt like joining. My take on the most probable EU development:
http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2011/11/will-t...
Re: John's Between the Lines
John,
I'd like to add my Welcome here.
"Another question I'd like answered is how does an investment bank trade for their own account for several quarters without incurring a single day of losses."
Hint:
Maybe they hang around with people in Congress with insider trading habits ;-)
Grym
Re: But, THIS doesn't fit the narrative!
Craig,
"Here is the thing about not caring much about reality: If you are going to create a false narrative about the causes of an event, you must be aware of details, data and facts even if you don’t want to believe in them."
My grandmother used to have a saying in Swedish — wish I could recall it exactly — but it translates thus...
"To be a good liar you must have a Very good memory."
Grym
GRR.V Golden Reign
Still no "Alternative Monthly" report on Sedar reporting on Salida Capital's inside position. There was a big 700K trade that went thru earlier, maybe Salida reducing to pay redemptions?
Last month for the end of Sept:
As a result of the Acquisition, Salida, on behalf of the Funds, held and exercised control
and direction over an aggregate of 5,436,222 Common Shares and 2,222,222 Warrants,
representing approximately 12.98% of the outstanding Common Shares of the Issuer,
calculated on a partially diluted basis based on the number of outstanding Common Shares
as reported by the Issuer in the MD&A.
Re: Euro: Will they fail to bail?
Vad,
Sounds reasonable to me.
What then do you think will be the effect on $USD, Ts, gold, and US stock markets?
Any thoughts?
See mine:
Submitted by Grym (4394 comments) on Wed, 11/16/2011 - 11:47 #100107
As the whole world plays musical chairs with currencies:
• Euro looking worse with little chance for improvement • Dollar looks better relative to most other currencies • Dollar strength will bring down equity markets globally
In spite of dollar relativity — gold maintains flight to safety top slot.
Grym
market/economy overview
interesting and informative slide presentation put together by Naufal Sanaullah.
http://tinyurl.com/888y2gl
Re: Expanding home ownership
Luggie, The story is from Bloomberg. Last I checked he wasn't listed as 'progressive'.
That said, nobody seems to have a monopoly on hypocrisy. They will all lie their a@@es off. Who fired the first blame shot? It wasn't the 'progressive' media, whatever that is. They all went after FMN/FMAC/CRA, which is all total bull. Let's be clear, both parties are the enemy. They do the exact same things and then to get elected/re-elected they blame one another. It's classic divide and conquer. How's that workin' for ya?
As I'm sure you know, none of the above could have ever occurred without Greenspan's easy Fed. (and later the Bernank) to which we can attribute blame from all sides.
and now we see stories of FHA needing funding. The fun never stops. Who will they blame for FHA? Surely it must be Obama, or is it Bush, or how about Clinton? Reagan? It simply MUST be FDR. Right?
when we pull off the blinders the truth is gonna hurt. WE allow this crap to go on and WE allow these finger pointing divisive games.
On a slightly different note: Where was all that Clinton/Greenspan tech bubble/Y2K funny money slosh supposed to go? I hope you did well!
Happy trading indeed!
THRIVE MOVIE _ Bill, John, et al
After having spent over an hour viewing this fascinating movie, thought you folks here might enjoy seeing it (if you have not already), but when you have the time. Captivating: scientific detail, fact based; follow the money_ John D. Rockefeller Standard Oil (1870), Rockefeller control of our food supply (Green Revolution 1960-70 which was not "green" but petroleum based AG... GMO and sterile seeds...); Rockefeller_ NEA... AMA......
As Friday used to say, "Just the facts, ma'am"
“Who controls the food supply controls the people; who controls the energy can control whole continents; who controls money can control the world.” ~ Henry Kissinger
http://vimeo.com/32121190
Re: Expanding home ownership
GOOOH - a group that is trying to make positive change. I know personally how difficult it is to get people involved; do, or do not.
http://goooh.com/Home.aspx
Re: Euro: Will they fail to bail?
Grym,
the answer is not that simple, and depends on when this happens and what market does before that. Your list of reactions is correct IF this takes place now. But if it happens in a year, then I'd have to see what market does in expectation, whether it incorporated this scenario in advance and priced it in.
Poor RMBS
Rambus Inc *JURY REJECTS PRICE FIXING CLAIMS GAINST HYNIX AND MICRON; JURY AWARDS NO DAMAGES TO RMBS
- Jury rules that Micron and Hynix had not conspired to disrupt the economic relationship of Rambus and Intel
- Reminder: Rambus had sought billions in damages asgainst the companies
Re: Expanding home ownership
Some may want to read the initial story.
Read both sides of this story. I looked at it from the GSE side (we need a conservative advocate and we'll pay him $300,000 a year) to Gingrich's side, which is I'll say or do anything short of staying with my wife for $300K a year.
BUT, when you cut me lose I'm going to flip on you and blame Barney Frank.
To me it's just the usual revolving door voter rip off it always is from DC on all sides. They win, we lose. R's blame D's. D's blame R's.
A pox on both their houses I say.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-16/gingrich-...
Re: Poor RMBS
I'm surprised it didn't trash the stock. No reaction at this point.
Re: Poor RMBS
It's halted. So's MU. Just wait for trading to resume... my guess is, we will see RMBS under 10
Re: GRR.V Golden Reign
It's possible market makers are standing aside knowing Salida's and others shares are coming at them. When that is done maybe the stock catches a bid. Any other explanations out there?
Re: Poor RMBS
Ouch. (No position.) I did have it for a while sold at a loss, but this will make me happy. I'm told they have some good technology coming down the pipe, so should keep an eye. Love to hear what you do with it over the next 24 hrs Vad. I predict you'll catch something here.
FBR
Off to the races. Bill noted its undervalued stock price in the WIR.
What's the news in Brazil?
Switch PRU.to -> PMV.v
Looking like money is exiting Perseus Mining (-8%) and entering PMI Gold (+5%).
ARGEX Mining
I just bought my initial position. They released news today that they entered into a letter of agreement with Quinto Mining, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. to acquire the claims located on the Lac Brule property. Historical exploration work outlined three massive ilmenite lenses. An internal study reported a mineral resource totalling 3.8 million tons and having an average grade of 30.1% TiO2, Titanium Dioxide. The purchase of all rights, title and interest is C$1,150,000.
Argex will be a future 10 bagger at a minimum. Current price is $0.43/share. Go to their web site for more information:www.argex.ca.
Re: New writer will join us today
To be respectful and kind, none of this is true.
I actual left for one reason, but wanted to leave because of two.
The main reason I left the brokerage business is I no longer could be an employee of a major firm and also be a financial newsletter editor. So, I became an independent RIA (fully licensed by the state and federal authorities), and still have client accounts I manage.
Secondly, I was tired of conflicts of interest with brokerage firm analysts, bogus research reports, all for the benefit of getting bonuses from investment banking fees.
If others have issues with compliance and regulations, that's their problem, not mine. I still have to deal with these issues as an RIA.
My only goal here is to help. I don't get paid to do this.
Re: New writer will join us today
jumugarian -
It's easy for the bed pressers to throw out flames but I, for one, look forward to more of your insights and appreciate the free time you give to this forum. Enjoyed you post today.
Cheers.
Re: Switch PRU.to -> PMV.v
Check out the action in Novagold - announced a new CEO and spin-off and the market is loving it, up 25%.
Black Swans and other zoonomics.
Who caused the 1987 market crash or the NASDAQ crash in 2000? It wasn’t mutual funds, pension funds, and small investors all telepathically working together and selling at the same time, they took big losses too. If it wasn’t them then who was it?
See Didier Sornette: Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences: Chaos, Fractals, Self-organization and Disorder: Concepts and Tools / Edition 2
Re: THRIVE MOVIE _ Bill, John, et al
tradylady,
It's interesting that you brought up the Kissinger quote.
One of the reasons many are shocked that a system of control exists is they don't get the information from the U.S. media.
Here's a quote from David Rockefeller as to why;
"We are grateful to the Washington Post, the New York Times, Time magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected the promises of discretion for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subject to the bright lights of publicity during those years. But, the world is now more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world-government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the National autodetermination practiced in past centuries.-- David Rockefeller in an address to a Trilateral Commission meeting in June of 1991
Re: Switch PRU.to -> PMV.v
This could be impacting PRU.to:
Ghana to hike taxes on mining companies
ACCRA – Ghana will seek to boost revenues from its mining industry next year by hiking taxes, according to a text of the 2012 budget delivered to Parliament on Wednesday.
The corporate tax rate on miners will increase to 35% from 25% and a separate 10% tax on windfall profits will be introduced, according to the text.
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/ghana-to-hike-...
Keystone Pipeline
TransCanada has proposed altering the route of the Keystone pipeline, hoping this change can expedite the approval process. It would move the route east, crossing the Sandhill region in an area where there is a 200 foot clay barrier between the surface and the aquifer. Costs of the delay and change in location could add up to $1.5B more than the original estimate.
Side note
Kudos to those who owned Jaguar Mining..... a nice 50% one day gain.
Re: New writer will join us today
Dear Mr. Mugarian:
Welcome.
Ron
Re: PSLV Take down
Hey Cal kid
I saw the disparity in the PSLV, silver drop too, I own PSLV and took the hit. I have no idea, perhaps someone more savvy can help. FWIW,I ran a PSLV:SLV ratio through stock charts and tagged one or two of the recent times that the difference ratio was expanded to as large as today on the drop (ie may, Aug) and I saw a short term rally in PSLV following, so I am hoping history repeats. Maybe this will be helpful? I am still holding PSLV, but looking for a stop in case Vad's euro scenario 1 hits the fan soon.
Innovation
Hi All - Here is industry making due despite the progressive agenda to thwart reasonable resource development. Guess my horse in the political arena better support appropriate U.S. resource progress unlike the current agenda. Move along with the pox on both parties talk since one has my agenda more in focus. Happy Trading
http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2011/11/16/enbridge-...
And now, a little afternoon trading music
for this skitzo market> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMLnDuzgkjo
Re: Euro: Will they fail to bail?
Vad,
"the answer is not that simple, and depends on when this happens and what market does before that. Your list of reactions is correct IF this takes place now. But if it happens in a year, then I'd have to see what market does in expectation, whether it incorporated this scenario in advance and priced it in."
The simple answers are everywhere — just check out CNBC — several new ones daily.
I'll just need to ask again... in a year ;-)
Thanks
Grym
Re: THRIVE MOVIE _ Bill, John, et al
John,
... and that quote brings to mind mass media and their control: since 1983, 50 have been reduced to 5 corporate conglomerates? That is not by coincidence. They have shaped opinion and we have little robots spewing the same headlines. No wonder Fox is the center of scrutiny... get them out, then there will be no dissent. My husband has said (jokingly?) "one morning we will wake up and be told what time we should line up in the courthouse square for calisthenics".
Re: THRIVE MOVIE _ Bill, John, et al
tradylady,
Excellent, but disturbing, movie, although I do find parts of it not credible at all.
I'll ask Jack Senett to put the link on the side-bar for easy access to anybody who wants it.
I anticipate more movies like this, which at some point will cause the people to rise up and demand change. Americans and Western Europeans have been pushed to the brink, and I believe they are about to collectively shout 'no mas'. I think the Occupy Movement is part of the process.
WHR- Whirlpool Puts look interesting
I've been watching WHR closely in recent weeks. The RSI7m numbers are below 30, and I am willing to take an initial position around 44-48. If the stock gets into this range the RSI7daily and weekly numbers should fall in line.
Selling the Dec 45-48 puts are bring about 1%-2.5% for a months patience. The company announced they were following the NAFTA mantra and moving some operations to Mexico to cut costs. When Hershey made a similar announcement to stock rallied.
If the big boys can hold the market up through December, this would be an interesting play.
Re: Poor RMBS
"my guess is, we will see RMBS under 10"
Ouch... at 7 now, hit as low as 4 on initial panic. Investors thank idiot regulators for the halt leaving them with no chance to readjust their position before the event.
Re: THRIVE MOVIE _ Bill, John, et al
LOL
It has been removed........
Sorry, "THRIVE MOVIE - thrivemovement.com" was deleted at 3:16:12 Wed Nov 16, 2011. Vimeo has removed or disabled access to the following material as a result of a third-party notification by Clear Compass Media claiming that this material is infringing: THRIVE MOVIE - thrivemovement.com. We have no more information about it on our mainframe or elsewhere.
Apparently(tested), it is still available on YouTube.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdGi6Q3N9tY
Ron
Dont blink
crazy close. we are now straddling the bottom of the triangle range.
Trade with the Insiders!
"Why aren't congressional members required to put their holdings into a blind trust?
Why can’t we ban insider trading by Congress members?
How can these elected officials do “the people’s business” when they are too busy running around trading on the votes they are about to cast?
How on earth can we ever get fair outcomes of issues involving finance, healthcare, or energy when the members so personally have a monetary stake in an outcome they may or may not be in the public interest?
Why aren’t these people in jail?"
~~~
1. General Electric (GE)
Members invested: 75
Total value of holdings (max.): $11.41 million
Total value of holdings (min.): $3.58 million
Top Congressional Investors
Darrell Issa (R.-Calif.) – $1 million to $5 million
John Kerry (D.-Mass.) – $616,004 to $1.315 million
Michael McCaul (R.-Texas) – $400,003 to $850,000
2. Procter & Gamble (PG)
Members invested: 62
Total value of holdings (max.): $39.42 million
Total value of holdings (min.): $8.72 million
Top Congressional Investors
Rodney Frelinghuysen (R.-N.J.) – $7.07 million to $35.15 million
Michael McCaul (R.-Texas) – $200,002 to $500,000
James B. Renacci (R.-Ohio) – $180,485 to$222,482
3. Bank of America (BAC)
Members invested: 57
Total value of holdings (max.): $5.41 million
Total value of holdings (min.): $2.83 million
Top Congressional Investors
Rodney Frelinghuysen (R.-N.J.) – $1.02 million to $1.08 million
John M. Spratt Jr. (D.-S.C.) – $500,001 to $1 million
Dianne Feinstein (D.-Calif.) – $500,001 to $1 million
4. Microsoft (MSFT)
Members invested: 56
Total value of holdings (max.): $6.43 million
Total value of holdings (min.): $3.22 million
Top Congressional Investors
John Kerry (D.-Mass.) – $1.77 million to $2.55 million
Michael McCaul (R.-Texas) – $515,003 to $1.05 million
Jane Harman (D.-Calif.) – $130,003 to $350,000
5. Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Members invested: 56
Total value of holdings (max.): $3.24 million
Total value of holdings (min.): $1.27 million
Top Congressional Investors
John Kerry (D.-Mass.) – $602,005 to $1.28 million
Richard L Hanna (R.-N.Y.) – $100,000 to $250,000
Jane Harman (D.–Calif.) – $100,000 to $200,000
6. Pfizer (PFE)
Members invested: 51
Total value of holdings (max.): $4.61 million
Total value of holdings (min.): $2.04 million
Top Congressional Investors
John Kerry (D.-Mass.) – $752,004 to $1.53 million
F. James Sensenbrenner Jr. (R.-Wis.) – $507,005 to $1 million
Kurt Schrader (D.-Ore.) – $265,002 to $550,000
7. Intel (INTC)
Members invested: 47
Total value of holdings (max.): $3.21 million
Total value of holdings (min.): $1.28 million
Top Congressional Investors
John Kerry (D.-Mass.) – $602,005 to $1.28 million
Michael McCaul (R.-Texas) – $200,002 to $500,000
Jane Harman (D.-Calif.) – $130,003 to $350,000
8. Wells Fargo (WFC)
Members invested: 45
Total value of holdings (max.): $4.28 million
Total value of holdings (min.): $1.71 million
Top Congressional Investors
John Kerry (D.-Mass.) – $351,003 to $765,000
Sander Levin (D.-Mich.) – $250,001 to $500,000
David Vitter (R.-La.) – $126,007 to $365,000
9. AT&T (ATT)
Members invested: 44
Total value of holdings (max.): $4.08 million
Total value of holdings (min.): $2.23 million
Top Congressional Investors
John Kerry (D.-Mass.) – $1.52 million to $2.07 million
F. James Sensenbrenner Jr. (R.-Wis.) – $105,877 to $255,876
Richard L Hanna (R.-N.Y.) – $100,001 to $250,000
10. Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Members invested: 42
Total value of holdings (max.): $11.09 million
Total value of holdings (min.): $2.74 million
Top Congressional Investors
John Carter (R.-Texas) – $1 million to $5 million
F. James Sensenbrenner Jr. (R.-Wis.) – $551,185 to $1.05 million
Michael McCaul (R.-Texas) – $500,002 to $1 million
Sources: Open Secrets, CNBC
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/top-favorite-...
Re: Keystone Pipeline
re: Keystone pipeline delay, the Chinese can wait.
Ciao, Z.
Re: John's Between the Lines
jmugarian - "how does an investment bank trade for their own account for several quarters without incurring a single day of losses..."
My contention is that the vast majority of activity on Wall Street is essentially fraud. The societally beneficial function it performs is to allocate capital efficiently. However, that's hard work. Fraud is much easier - it has a much better ROI, there is essentially only a modest penalty to being caught, and so the effort tends to follow the high ROI.
And so the monster just grows bigger, more extractive, and exhibits a ever-greater degree of control over the government.
Re: John's Between the Lines
Death penalty or life sentence
+ inability to settle out of court
= more responsible industry
but they will say that will cut off growth engine. So we all sit in this ship heading toward the waterfall together.
THRIVE MOVIE -- NEW LINK
Here is a new link to watch the "THRIVE" movie. In fact I use this site to watch the majority of movies I watch, for free!!!
I have been using this site for about 6 months now, without ANY issues, the only thing that is annoying is the pop up ads, which occur ONLY before the movie starts, at no other time do ads pop up.
I am using GOOGLE CHROME, so I am not sure how it works with other browsers.
http://www.tubeplus.me/player/1967593/Thrive/
Re: John's Between the Lines
Well, if it's that easy for an investment bank to manipulate the market and make sure profits, how does the most powerful of them lose 10B in one of their most active funds and closes it, quitting quantitative hedge fund strategies altogether?
Re: WHR- Whirlpool Puts look interesting
John,
I too wish to welcome you. Glad to read you are focused with helping your clients. A win win situation. I fix houses. I don't look at a project with the mind set of how much money I can make. I try to help the homeowner.I look at the project as how long will it take and how much will the materials cost.
This past spring I was called in to complete a bathroom remodel that another guy failed at. This is the way I think about Monti taking over in Italy.
Some of us do not play puts and calls, options, futures etc. Any investment ideas of the go long or go short nature will be appreciated.
Looking forward to your postings, Bear E
Re: John's Between the Lines
The occasional smoker lives until he's 100 years old and suffers no apparent ill effects. Outliers happen. Does this prove smoking is good for you?
Every firm has to decide for themselves which types of fraud are the easiest for them to exploit. Perhaps this area has too many sharks already in the tank?
Re: John's Between the Lines
Vad,
Who says there is honor amongst thieves?
The answer is quite clear from Lehman, they will get anybody and pick over the body of all dead. Afterall, that's where the real money is.
They may appear, to the causal observer, to be perfectly nice people on TV, but the indication of the slightest weakness or inside info of potential weakness and they don't hesitate to take whatever action to gain advantage.
you don't think people were gunning for Corzine and then had an opening?
It might even have been JP morgan who was holding the funds.
Regardless of size, it is eat or be eaten, and if you can short the prey, help knock the prey over, and then buy assets for pennies on the dollar, so much the better.
Re: XLF jumped again from the 12.835 support
Finally, it cut through the support without looking back!
Now, the big question is: is this real or just a head-fake?
I'm thinking real considering the Euro crisis that is getting worse every hour.
Re: Dont blink
It's actually worse as futures are dropping after hours.
Insider trading in Congress
According to a new book called Throw Them All Out by Peter Schweizer, as relayed by Dave Weigel at Slate, Rep. Bachus made more than 40 trades in his personal account in the summer and fall of 2008, in the early months of the financial crisis... The fact that Bachus personally traded while getting private government briefings is bad enough. The fact that he was the ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee at the time is simply outrageous... In one case, the day after getting a private briefing on the collapsing economy and financial system from Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson, Rep. Bachus effectively shorted the market (by buying options that would rise if the market tanked.).. A few days later, after the market tanked, Bachus sold his position and nearly doubled his money.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/outrag...
What concerns me most is that the people who surround these scoundrels, helping them get re-elected, simply look the other way when confronted with information like this.
John Mugarian
Welcome! I look forward to reading your insights.
Re: Insider trading in Congress
Death penalty, life sentences, and inability to settle out of court, would fix a lot.
Returning my Amazon Kindle Fire
it is a great portable size. but the downfall is the operating system. it has limited app support (missing the apps i need). Google Android's library of apps does not all work on the Amazon Kindle. the Silk web browser claim of faster speeds, is not so.
I guess I will need to wait for the next iPad 3.
Media blaming Fitch for a poor closing
The rating agency has a report on US bank exposure to Europe on its front page, which the media are blaming for today's lackluster finish. Password required, but I remember someone writing that Euro banks were betting that trouble would come sooner, rather than later, while American banks were selling oodles of CDS's betting that trouble wouldn't come. I guess the Euro idiots are the lesser of the two. Probably explains XLF's drop through support into close.
Petro Puppeteers
Let's see, the uber-banks now control 70% of the financial assets up from under 30% in a decade.
The law was changed to allow them to make investments such as trading oil.
Here's a link to a Zero Hedge article on oil price manipulation. The blog also suggests that the oil price is about to fall and a short term put would be " a good way to stick it to the pump gang at the NYMEX who are doing their best to fake demand for oil near $100 a barrel."
here's a few para's
"Americans have paid an average of $25 per barrel MORE than the head of the World's largest oil company says we should be paying for the 20M barrels a day we consume for a total RIP-OFF of $500 MILLION PER DAY or $15Bn per month or $180Bn per year!
But that's just the cost of a barrel of oil. At the pump, you pay $3.50 per gallon and, in a 42 gallon drum that's $147 per barrel - almost DOUBLE where it should be. Then there's the pass-through costs you pay for heat and electricity and food and a host of other products that are derived from oil - all told, this NYMEX scam is costing the American people over $500Bn a year and, Globally, we're talking about a $2.5 TRILLION crime
NO ONE in the MSM or, of course, our Government talks about this problem because they are filthy and corrupt and in the pockets of Goldman Sachs and the Energy Industry, who are slowly but surely taking over our World Governments and ratcheting up the cost of necessities like food and fuel and medical care until there isn't any room left for discretionary spending - just a life of wage slavery for the average American as they try to just make enough money to keep up with the inflation in the very items the Federal Reserve pretends don't exist!"
"We did not used to spend 10% of our $60Tn GDP on energy products. Under Clinton, oil was in the $20s - Bush's deregulation of the industry and destruction of the CTFC sent energy prices not just in California to stratospheric levels courtesy of Enron but Globally prices rose from less than 3% of the Global GDP to over 10% - That's over $4Tn that were taken away from other sectors to be spent on a commodity we literally burn. We don't get more production out of a $100 barrel of oil than we did out of a $25 barrel"
IMO if excess oil trading profits were eliminated, it would help the sick economy and give consumers a break worldwide.. $80 oil for a couple of years would be a healthy tonic. However, the puppeteers are not interested in this approach, It was just incredible how they recently parachuted their soldiers into Italy and Greece, who assumed political leadership roles without being elected, demonstrating their ominous power and control. Someone is about to loot and pillage the citizens, and it appears only violent revolution can stop the move. Portuguese and Spaniards prepare yourselves.
see the blog at ZH
http://tinyurl.com/722l92l
Re: Media blaming Fitch for a poor closing
Les,
NY Times says: "Major indexes were moving between small gains and losses for most of the day before Fitch put its report out at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time. The Dow Jones industrial index was down 75 points shortly before the report came out, then lost more than 100 more."
How many times do we have to point this out? Why didn't Fitch wait until AMC, say 6pm ET? They didn't because they knew the people who prepared this report and who were briefed ahead of public release, would be front-running! The market dropped like a rock from about 3:10pm ET.
There are reasons, like this example, and the Bachus insider trading scandal for another example this afternoon, why the public is fed up. Totally fed up! There is no law and no organizations to serve and protect us.
Re: Trade with the Insiders!
With the exceptions of XOM and P&G, that 'portfolio' has been a train wreck for the last 5 years. If this is an example of creating wealth through inside information then I respectfully ask to be removed from the 'grapevine.'
This is a portfolio that Bill Miller would envy! Chances are better than even that their BAC holdings came from their outsized positions if Countryfried...
What a hoot. Congress critters are even dumber than I thought.
Re: Trade with the Insiders!
Thanks Craig; http://www.opensecrets.org/pfds/index.php
I'm compiling some really good sites.
Earl
Re: Media blaming Fitch for a poor closing
Front running = fraud. Money is extracted with very minor risk taken from those outside that particular inner circle of knowledge. It is completely zero sum in nature. It is much easier money than actually working at capital allocation, there is no penalty when caught, so it will continue.
Re: New writer will join us today
John,
Respect is a two way street. I take exception to your comments about the large retail brokerage houses. The reality is the industry is better regulated now than it has ever been. If an advisor does something wrong your chances in arbitration is better with large firms than they are with independents. Also, of you look at the largest frauds recently have all been independent. Sharing accurate information is one thing making generalizations which have no truth will be called out here. There are alot of unsophisticated investors on this board who believe everything on this board as gospel. I've been in this business longer than you and when I here comments like you made this morning it makes me think your just another huckster pitching his newsletter and/or Money management services. I hope I'm wrong
Newt Gingrich Got Rich
It has been reported on Bloomberg that Newt Gingrich worked for Freddie Mac 8 years and was paid $1.6 to $1.8 million in just 2006. Not a good association in our current political environment.
Strange... seems like whenever someone gets close to Milt Romney... dirt suddenly appears in the media.
Re: New writer will join us today
pauldkk -
"The reality is the industry is better regulated now than it has ever been."
Yes, but for whom is it better regulated? Certainly not for the NY banking cabal and their on going success in fleecing WE THE PEOPLE.
Re: New writer will join us today
pauldkk -
The whole issue of regulatory excellence hinging on where one does better in arbitration is perhaps not as compelling to me as it is to you.
Mom (a widowed, retired teacher) had a former investment advisor from SSB (Citibank) who stuffed her account full of auction rate securities a few months before the market they made in them locked up. The only way we got that money back was because the NY AG sued the major banks, and as part of the settlement the little people like Mom got their money back. Citi had absolutely no interest in dealing with us until the AG became involved.
Clearly Citi knew the precarious state of the ARS market, and fed Mom (and presumably thousands of others) these losers so they wouldn't be stuck with a big inventory of them on their balance sheet.
Perhaps this outcome is an example of the excellent regulation you speak of - had she been with an independent, she might have been treated even worse. Seems like kind of a low bar.
I'd feel a lot better if investment advisors were under a higher duty of care than simply "suitability." Otherwise, we're still stuck with the situation where captive accounts get stuffed full of the new issues the company isn't able to sell to the public markets - as long as the account holder could possibly be a "suitable" investor for the instrument.
Hopefully you are different, and your firm does better. I hope so. Providing real advice and authentically managing money for customers in a way that focuses completely on client interests is hard work, and has my respect.
Re: New writer will join us today
pauldkk,
My problem is not with the rank and file advisors. Most of these people are good people. They usually take the blame for something when it really isn't their fault.
I do have a problem with the higher ups.
I was with a firm that was in bed with the top brass at Enron. Stories were coming out that they were selling stock for the top brass, while the employees were prevented to do so. They employed a former U.S. Senator who was advising the State of California on their energy problem while his wife was sitting on the board of Enron.
The analyst continued to recommend the stock to the brokers, and one broker in Houston who handle accounts for ordinary Enron employees got fired for going against the firms advice. These common everyday people got wiped out. In addition, UBS acquired Enron's trading operations after they crashed and burned.
Here are some stories on the situation.
http://www.lawyershop.com/practice-areas/criminal-...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/ubs-phil-gramm/
http://www.stewwebb.com/Enron%20Broker%27s%20Tale%...
Re: New writer will join us today
I went back and re-read John's introductory story. I'm not sure I come away with the same take as others here. As someone with some experience on the other end of retail brokerages, I don't think John is out of line. It may be that they are well regulated, but I also know that some people get screwed and never say anything because of the blah, blah, blah of the standard release line, "investments are not guaranteed and you may lose money including principal, etc etc.
The problem with being overly sensitive to criticism is it rings of that old wisdom from Mom and Dad. "Son, you are judged by the company you keep".
You may well be the most honest person on the planet, but if your profession is populated by even a minority of hacks and profit hungry sharks and YOU don't keep it policed, YOU are going to be judged by the company you keep.
I know this is true of my profession and it is of almost all others.
We have all heard the used car salesman, lawyer and doctor comments. We've all heard the broker comments, which don't look now was the very reason for the explosion of on-line self directed discount brokerages. The reason I'm here and have been for years is my parents are older and less capable and they got ripped off, or WORSE, IGNORED by a well known large brokerage that watched as their gains from the 90's were destroyed and their wealth cut in half.
Guess what? Reputable brokers don't sit and let accounts of people they care about get cut in half. If the tech bubble taught anyone anything, it was that nobody, NOBODY, was going to take more interest in your financial future than YOU. When the fees are 2% in and 2% out then there is little incentive to work for the regular work a day Joe 6 pack investor or retirement account.
Everyone wants to be a big fish and have millions or billions under management.
If investment professionals want to be viewed as honest, they have to police their ranks and call out the scoundrels or 'be judged by the company they keep'.
When Bill Cara says he is taking his marbles and looking for means of alternative investment, you know it isn't just brokers anymore, the system is rotten from the head down.
I say welcome John. I hope you will help guide the way for some folks here in the wilderness. Luckily I'm not one of those that believes everything here, man THAT would be confusing as hell, but there is good information here. No one can be right all the time, but Bill has been here for a long time and I always enjoy Geoff's commentary. I'm sure you will add value as well.
Not everyone will agree. That is what makes a market.
Re: John's Between the Lines
Sorry, I am not convinced. We are not talking about an insignificant outlier - it was their pride, high-performing fund for elite clients - and they couldn't make it work. How do you tie it with theory that they can do anything they please? Far from being a single example, too - including their own stock price.
Re: John's Between the Lines
Craig,
I am afraid you misread my post. I haven't said anything of a kind
Robert Kennedy Jr Scores $1.4 Billion
President John F. Kennedy’s nephew, Robert Kennedy, Jr., netted a $1.4 billion bailout for his company, BrightSource, through a loan guarantee issued by a former employee-turned Department of Energy official.
http://biggovernment.com/whall/2011/11/16/robert-k...
Re: New writer will join us today
Please, the majority of assets under management at retail brokerage is in separately managed accounts, etfs, and/or mutual funds with risk tolerances monitored. Whatever games being played on the institution level that you are referring to effect your clients just as much as mine. To suggest anything else is erroneous.
Re: New writer will join us today
"Reputable brokers don't sit and let accounts of people they care about get cut in half." Craig, but it does happen!
Re: John's Between the Lines
Vad - "How do you tie it with theory that they can do anything they please?"
Hmm, don't recall advancing such a theory.
Re: John's Between the Lines
Well, that was kind of implied by the whole "if they can go for months without losses" thing, no?
I may have assumed something that wasn't meant here, but all logical chains of this kind I've encountered before were like this... "here is their otherwordly performance - it proves fraud - by deploying fraud they can do whatever they want and make market move wherever they please." If it's not what was meant, I retreat :)
Re: John's Between the Lines
No.
Re: John's Between the Lines
Okay then
Re: John's Between the Lines
There is plenty of space on the spectrum - a legitimate investment strategy on one side, and "the ability to make the market do whatever I want it to do" on the other. You jumped to the far end, when there are many explanations in the middle which might serve just as well, sound more credible, and still be chock-full of fraud and/or a built-in systemic advantage.
I'd say when things fall outside the range of expected outcomes, repeatedly, it bears looking into. Sometimes its a case of the small mammal scuttling between the legs of the big dinosaurs - it works only as long as things are kept small and agile. Sometimes its a case of opportunistic fraud. Sometimes its a case of one hand washing the other - say the Fed needing the broker dealers to buy that debt from treasury at the auction, and then the Fed buys that same debt a week later, with a guaranteed profit for the dealer extracted from the public at large.
For instance.
Next
Normally I tend to stay to the facts. But, today I think I am starting to get it. What a shame, it has taken so long for a person who feel he is in “the here and now”. That was a term we threw around in the 70's at the University's in the Psychology Department that explained how a small select portion of the population 'got it' and had the moxie to do something when presented the opportunity. It is here and it is now so, the ball in your court what are you going to do? Most do nothing as they don't see the ball or feel powerless to make any decision out of the ordinary. This community for the most part gets it and wrights about it when they act in real time. What a treasure this is to any one who wants it.
After watching PSLV be taken down today less than 24 hours after what must be the biggest pain in the neck to the COMEX Harvey Organ's daily explained his reasoning one has to stop and wonder just what is going on in the futures pits now. I have read that MFG had physical metals in London and by time the accountants trace the paper back for the customer base there will only be dust in the vaults. I see no chance that the innocent will be made whole in this one.
It seems a great many futures traders both long and short are missing the ability to execute as they were routed through MFG. So, now other side is devouring their equity or positions as they remain frozen out of their futures accounts. I could not imagine if my Broker Dealer closed the website and brick and mortar stores as I slept. Like most seasoned (stopped to think what we are collectively I guess stock exchangers is as good a term as any) 'we' watch the markets as America sleeps during what should be a good nights sleep for us. I have found the powers to be do what they want when they want. Now they have a penalty shot so to speak as players are in the penalty box in a time out and just may be getting robed in the box so as to not return to the game.
The change in PSLV today made me think we are not playing a crooked casino who is gaming us we are being played by a computer assisted Ouji Board. I like most I talked to today believed the Congress all had blind trusts as do the President and Vice President. How cool is it to be advised by the Sectary of the Treasury and be on your Blackberry placing puts on the banks. Wow and I thought we knew the 1% these government officials must be the infinite fraction of that 1% gaming the system.
So, believing I am in the here and now I still am not giving up any shares in any thing. We truly live in the time of the movie Matrix and the surface robots are the programing code of hedge funds and governments going broke probing for our assets with fear as their directional tool.
Bad tail at the close today will watch this price action go as fast as daylight around the globe in losses tonight on other indexes. When the waves of zero's and one's hits in the morning it might be margin time for many. If you can't be a Congressman it must be also great to be a dark pool super computer with one thing on your mind.
It is the same thing that is on mine.
I will close my rant with something a Green Bret once told be how he handled life,
Next
Re: John's Between the Lines
Craig,
What a lousy way to live. How can anyone look in the mirror if that's his lifestyle?
Grym
MFG Drained Gerald Celente's Account .. He is pissed!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5OxXGjJBnM
Re: John's Between the Lines
Well, I guess I jumped there because in my experience these discussions always go there. If they stayed with simple "OK, there is a fraud in this industry" - there wouldn't be even much to discuss, who doesn't know that, and what is the point in stating it for 1000th time? But read through a hundred or so of such discussions, and you'll see that they (today's no exception, I've already seen this up the thread) inevitably end up with this: they can anything with the market, we are toys in their hands, thus we need to quit the whole thing and look for something else. While it's personal choice for each individual of course, I don't see the point of turning this forum in such direction. Not only do I disagree with such conclusion, I also view it as self-defeating - after all, we gathered here to learn to trade. So, you can see how these discussions regularly make me cite the evidence of PTBs not being complete masters of the markets but rather being subjected to those same market rules that govern the rest of us.
Re: Insider trading in Congress
NYUGrad,
Last night I watched a PBS program on the hunt for Nazi War Criminals. Several individuals whose families went to their deaths in the camps spoke quite openly about their desire for revenge and how they went about it. Some we're familiar with — Adolf Eichmann, Josef Mengele — these were less well known and in some cases those hunting had personal knowledge of them.
I knew we didn't get them all and those who we believed could be of use scientifically or militarily we not only allowed into the US, but gave them lucrative jobs. The estimates mentioned were in the 10s of thousands!
This story was distasteful, but no longer surprising.
However, there seems to be a similar acceptance of gross dishonesty and even participation by people in high places and elected office.
I wonder how many were Boy Scouts : "Trustworthy" — begins the Scout Law.
How many go to church weekly? "Do unto other as you would have others do unto you." — The Golden Rule
We need to do an extreme House cleaning (Senate too).
Grym
Nicaragua's Gold
Several companies mentioned including GRR.
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/High-Gold-Price-B...
Re: John's Between the Lines
Geez Grym, they think that's how it's done I guess. Survival of the fittest and all.
How else do we explain it? How do we explain the Enrons, the Madoffs, the Corzines?
These days we have the big brokerages and 'investment banks' like Goldman (now supposedly a depository bank?) betting against their own clients order flow, shorting against their own clients, shorting their own analyst recommendations.
We have congress investing against their own voters and trading on inside info, and we're surprised when we hear the toilet handle pull the flapper chain tight and the country starts to swirl downward?
We are surprised when the bankers and financial elites over throw democratically elected governments in Europe and they buy the United States government? We're surprised when they control the news?
Let's face it, we need to stop being surprised at their greed. They have no problem looking in their giant mirrors in their vast bathrooms in their vast mansions or on their yachts.
Frankly, we need to find them, bring them to justice and jail them for the hollow greedy frauds they are.
Anyone have a good line on publically traded companies that sell torches, pitchforks, tar and feathers? Is there a guillotines R us?
I don't want to wait too long for the MA's to cross up on those companies.
Is it Tractor Supply?
Oh, and BTW, David Rockefeller should be prosecuted for treason against the United States and the United States Constitution.
Re: New writer will join us today
well pauldkk, I'm sure that your reference to one of the supposed multitude of 'unsophisticated investors on this board', (which I consider myself to be relative to those who have years in the seat, as well as greatly studied and honed insight) was meant for for our benefit...perhaps to protect us from ourselves. May I thank you, if that was indeed your intent.
Earlier there was a comment about 'controversy', or perhaps the controversy about controversy. As your first words say, 'respect is a two way street'. Given that there are as many opinions about facts as there are facts, it is a real gift that we have here a place to sort through the morass, separating opinions that use facts to manipulate and those with facts whose agenda is to inform. Out of controversy grows education and enlightenement, and respect listens as well, unless of course one is more inclined to say 'don't confuse me with the facts, I've already made up my mind'.
Whatever the perceived unsophistication we each may have (and we all are in some area), I value the rigorous discourse, including sources, here and find the mutual respect an essential part of the responsibility I have to educate myself so that I can provide at least as equivalent possibilities for my childeren as I have had. It's going to be an uphill battle, it seems.
The last three years of involvement in the 'investment' arena has provided opportunity for insight into the evolvement of our culture and the importance of awareness of the issues that confront us and the potential effects of the path we're on. With all the forums out there, I've not found better balanced and knowledgeable than what we have here...
Thank you Bill, foremost, and all...
OccupyWallStreet agenda tomorrow in Manhattan
I have to juggle three meetings and find time to trade tomorrow. But OWS will be all over NYC prob disrupting the flow of public transport.
Wanted to share with my fellow NY'ers their agenda for tomorrow Nov 17
http://bit.ly/vCCbvu
Re: Insider trading in Congress
Grym,
"We need to do an extreme House cleaning (Senate too)."
Clean sweep!
Nov 2011 = May 2008
This is exactly what I have been talking for a couple of weeks.
Re: MFG Drained Gerald Celente's Account .. He is pissed!
I don't blame Celente for being outraged. Lind-Waldock has been a reputable commodities brokerage for a long time.
I wasn't aware it was bought out by MF.
If you or I robbed a convenience store for $600 we would be in jail and probably do a stint in prison while John Corzine is walking around a free man.
This behavior of the banksters is so in your face ... unbelievable. Lever up your bets 40x then when they go wrong, loot your clients money to attempt to cover those bets and nothing happens.
Time to fire up the guillotine. In China, they would give you a fast trial before a judge and then you would go out back of the court house for execution. Speedy justice. Makes people think twice before stealing on a large scale.
from NIA email:
Celente has a futures account with Lind-Waldock, a division of MF Global Inc. Celente had been accumulating December gold futures and was planning to take delivery of the physical gold next month. Last Monday, Celente received a call from his broker informing him that he had a margin call on his gold futures. Celente thought this was impossible because he knew that he had plenty of funds in his account to meet the margin maintenance requirements. His broker then told him that his money was with the Trustee now and unless he immediately sent over a large amount of cash, his positions would be liquidated.
The Trustee, in coordination with the CFTC, SIPC, and the CME, transferred over 17,000 customer accounts from MF Global to R.J. O'Brien. However, the Trustee only transferred about $1.55 billion or approximately 62% of the $2.5 billion in collateral that MF Global clients had. According to R.J. O'Brien, the accounts they received had only 75% of the margin maintenance requirements related to their accounts. This meant that every single MF Global client was now faced with a margin call and had to deposit additional funds to bring their accounts above R.J. O'Brien's initial margin requirement.
Re: OccupyWallStreet agenda tomorrow in Manhattan
NYUGrad,
reading the agenda, I'd like to ask two questions. The reason for them is, I for the world of me can't find the answer to them in what OWS says - I only see what people think they say, and people seem to put their own thoughts in the vessel provided by OWS.
1. "It's time we put an end to Wall Street's reign of terror and begin building an economy that works for all."
Did they outline what that economy is? Again, not asking about YOUR thoughts on this but THEIRS.
2. "Resist austerity."
Austerity in the latest developments is associated with governments stopping borrowing, thus cutting expenses. Is this what they protest against, or they put some different meaning in it?
Thanks for helping sort it out. Media seems to offer more confusion than clarity about OWS purposes; folks who assume they know what OWS wants seem to assume rather than know; rare personal accounts I could obtain are very contradictory; and finally the OWS in my neck of the woods is, well... I better refrain from description in hope this is not a fair representation of the broader movement.
RE: MF Global. Letter to Judge Demanding Trustee Removal
Letter to Judge James Giddens Demanding Removal of Trustee on Alleged Conflicts of Interests
November 16, 2011, 4:29 pm
Dear Judge Glenn
Re: MF Global Bankruptcy
Reference is made to the appointment of Attorney Giddens as Trustee.
Giddens’ antagonism toward 50,000 MF Global clients, whose money has been misappropriated, is puzzling.
Research reveals that his firm, Hughes Hubbard’s largest clients are JP Morgan and Price Waterhouse. Both of his clients and his representation of them represent a substantial conflict of interest.
He should be removed forthwith.
I assume this conflict was not known to you when he was approved.
I will await your action in this matter.
Sincerely,
Robert Martin
http://customercoalition.org/2011/11/16/letter-to-...
Re: OccupyWallStreet agenda tomorrow in Manhattan
I dont. They continue to change. Initially they had no demands or mission statement. then they did, then in response to "that is dumb" they removed. then they edited. then i cant find one today. Sounds like our existing govt.
I have been there a few times and the general consensus is they think they know some of the problems that are affecting the majority of people. They are generally tired of the current political and financial system. Do they know how to fix? no. But the rally cry of end the fed is popular.
then there are a slew of other agendas related to environment, education, war, etc etc.
I hope the effort can gain some focus within. I remain cynical about everything. Just focused on trading my futures contracts.
I often wonder, how many OWS protesters would sell out and leave for $50,000 cash, maybe much less? At the end of the day, its all about the Benjamins, right?
Re: MFG Drained Gerald Celente's Account .. He is pissed!
It appears to me the dividing line between the "99%" and the "1%" is fuzzy and very subjective, and the definition of what that line looks like and who is on either side of it will change dramatically based on your status and position in life. From the various posts here over the last month or so, I suspect that most on this blog would identify with the 99 and are pissed at the 1. I wonder how many of the true "99%" who are out of work and out of options own "six figures of physical gold"? Celente is pissed, because in one quantum leap, he has moved closer to the true "99%" than he wants to be, even though if asked, he would insist that he is part of the 99. The system has failed him, perhaps for the first time, and that in itself is a rude awakening. Others less fortunate than him are used to arbitrary rulings, to which there is no recourse, from either "the man" or "the system".
I don't agree with what has happened to him, but we need to keep this in perspective. I doubt he has to worry about where his next meal is coming from.
Funny thing is though, most of the protesters I see on various videos, with their Mac's, Ipods, and Iphones, and other toys seem to have a hell of a lot more than I did when I was a struggling student trying to make my way through college in the sixties.
Re: OccupyWallStreet agenda tomorrow in Manhattan
Thank you...
This lack of direction keeps me reserved about the movement. We may have the same peevees but very different ideas of what to do about them. When I see banners "Compost capitalism" and hear slogan "Spread the wealth," I don't feel I can side with them - even if they are unhappy about most of the same things I am.
Re: OccupyWallStreet agenda tomorrow in Manhattan
Vad,
This is true of about anything, isn't it?
Religion is a good example. Some of the same faith disagree with birth control and abortion while others of the same religion support birth control and the right to choose. I've heard some people tell me certain other Christian faiths (?) are not really religious or Christian. (and I'm not even talking about Mormons, a whole other issue).
We see this in finance. These people are 'investors' these are 'traders'. Some trade or invest on fundamentals, some on P/E, some on some other measure of earnings, some ignore earnings altogether and trade technical charts.
Bar charts, candles, the cloud, Renko, MA's, Fib, Stoch, MACD? Some think technical charts are voodoo.
So, let's use the same logic....how can anyone invest or trade when no one agrees on what the platform is?
Answer: They all want to make money.
Answer to OWS: They all want decent jobs, honest government, honest markets.
There are many roads to that destination, just like trading (er, investing, no trading, no....) There are as many answers as people.
double post arrrgh!
dbl post
Re: John's Between the Lines
Well said Vad.
The markets are the masters and I bow to them every morning. The God of the market is price and price is reality.
Re: OccupyWallStreet agenda tomorrow in Manhattan
Well, that's the thing - I am not sure I agree on the destination. What they may see as desired one, I may not. "Compost capitalism" is not my idea of where "decent jobs, honest government, honest markets" are found.
Re: OccupyWallStreet agenda tomorrow in Manhattan
I haven't ever found a topic or goal where everyone agrees except in broad generalities.
There is always going to be a "compost whatever" person or two involved.
It's best to ignore them as they are the extreme minority and no one listens to them anyway.
You can be sure the elite's media will find the compost people right away and they will be on TV (with their sign) along with the incidental druggy, the hygiene challenged, hair farmers and fashion challenged. That's the elite medias job. Need an example? Tune in FOX for a few minutes.
Re: OccupyWallStreet agenda tomorrow in Manhattan
Do I strike you as someone who is so gullible and can be swayed easily by propaganda? :)
I don't need Fox, nor do I need MSNBC for that matter. That's what I saw with my own eyes. It was not one or two - it was what they were all, or at least pronounced majority, about. All of what you listed and a lot more: want a photo of "Compost capitalism" banner on the most prominent spot? And yes, drugs, "the hygiene challenged, hair farmers and fashion challenged" - prominently displayed and by no means minority thing. Urine poured on the city worker from the tree - want a video of that episode?
But as I said - it could be different in other areas; that's why I asked NYUGrad about what OWS is and wants. You saw his answer. Do you have better one? Show me please. But again - I am not looking for what you or anyone else think what OWS is saying - I am trying to understand what they themselves are saying.
Re: Media blaming Fitch for a poor closing
I didn't look into the timing of the release - once again we see how the game is played.
It's a terrible state that before one should accept the fact of its release as contributing to market information, one needs to check the timing in order to ascertain the fraudulent nature of its release to the market.
I feel like such an 'unsophisticated investor' - perhaps I should just lay down and die.
Re: OccupyWallStreet agenda tomorrow in Manhattan
Hi Vad,
I also want to note that there are pockets of folks part of OWS that i agree with on some topics. I participated in a few End the Fed protests.
There are also smart intelligent folks who go to OWS but do not sleep there every night. those folks who have day jobs and family responsibilities like myself. So i cannot speak fairly to the character or intent of those who are sleeping in cold, heat, rain outside with tents.
The problem i see with OWS is how media portrays them. And without some form of leadership, it can become a mob or blob like in the horror movie.
The mutual beneficiary link between the people, the govt, law and the financial institutions are now broken. only a perverted version of the original intent still remains. Where everyone is simply trying to one up each other.
I dont see any quick fixes. As unemployment remains high, education in peril, and rampant debt addiction, i suspect more of the same, until full collapse when it's too late to fix, which we might already be there. A slow motion crash.
And we will have to rebuild a new.
re: occupy wall street remarks
did craig just say about the OWS "There is always going to be a "compost whatever" person or two involved.It's best to ignore them as they are the extreme minority and no one listens to them anyway"?? IS THIS THE SAME CRAIG WHO WAS BUSY COMMENTING ON THE TEA PARTY??????? or have I entered a parallel universe????
Post Close
I don't watch most amateur hours but days like yesterday give me impetus to return to Vad's room. I noted SLV, GLD and RSX all looking suspect at the opening and if you had kept an eye on them, one would have noted support kicking in and the bounce post amateur hour. See attached charts.
I note also the support given by RSX's VWAP intraday, so as far as Bill's intraday risk on/off indicator was going, things were going well until as pointed out, someone began front running a sell off based on Fitch's imminent report release during market hours.
In light of this front running sell off into close and what Jim remarked upon in his opening post, one can sympathise with the position that Vad takes to the market. If you can see it, trade it, otherwise stay in cash and avoid the pitfalls of this deceit.
The contrarian strategy to this could be trading in a larger time frame and trading the big swing setups. Suggesting that miners are always the last off the dance floor leads me to look at GDX in a 4 day time frame. And admittedly the top developing now resembles the multiple tops GDX has put over the last 12 months. Importantly though, the indicators do not yet confirm price. See attached.
Take another look at the Russian market - the DJ Russia Titans. That's as perfect a triangle as you can get AND EVERY MARKET PLAYER is now aware of them, so where is the real move coming? See attached.
I look at UUP and note resistance being broken in the 4 hour, but look at the 4 day and ask myself is that a rising wedge that is about to roll over? I see SLW testing lower support in this popular triangle setup that many stocks are making. Without knowing for sure which way the market wants to go here I could only tighten my stops and perhaps take some profits, knowing that I can always buy back in if the market wants higher.
But I have no skin in this game, so I continue to ponder if-then scenarios.
Potential for sell off in precious metals
The triangles in gold and silver are fizzling out to the downside.
$silver:$gold daily remains muted, with potential for another deflationary pulse.
GDX:$gold daily - potentially another top being put in here.
Thoughts of another trader:
http://peterlbrandt.com/silver-is-set-up-for-a-maj...
Merkel's griping that the UK should join in on taxing EU financial transactions, but otherwise keeping mum on word of where the money is going to come from to shore up rapidly increasing borrowing costs for the periphery. Italy, Spanish and French debt getting the short end of the stick again this morning.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR1...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GFRN10:IND
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPG10Y...
I certainly have no intention of selling the bullion I'm sitting on. I realise that this is the game the politicians and the market are playing, shaking little people like me out of my position. Screw them, I'm in this for the long haul.
If Christmas ends up being a sell off, which I begin to think may be a possibility, then I'll be adding at lower prices. Still, there's two weeks before December shows up and a potential rally, which is a lifetime in these markets. Anything can happen. As always we shall see.
John Mugarian's introduction to Rockefeller
Don't really know the guy - John nor Rockefeller :) - but I was interested in going back over that vid John placed at the bottom of his intro post. Rockefeller was pushing hard for a Free Trade Area of the Americas as an extension of NAFTA. And I think Rockefeller is a smart cookie. So he is probably aware of economic literature and that the...
...most accomplished work along these lines takes place at the World Bank and at Purdue. A representative recent estimate comes in a paper by Anderson, Martin and van der Mensbrugghe - hardly a bunch of rabid anti-globalizers. Their bottom line for the U.S.: full liberalization of global merchandise trade would eventually increase U.S. income by .1% in 2015. No you did no read that wrong. The gain amounts to one-tenth of one percent of GDP!*
Heck, US income fell far short of this very conservative estimate - much less the Bernanke speech that contended a 3.4% to 10.1% improvement to GDP. So what is Rockefeller on about then hey? Food for thought as I toy with penning an essay.
*Rodrik, quoted in Smith Yves, Econned, p.24
Re: John's Between the Lines
Craig,
I saw a little of this kind of attitude in the corporate management in some of the publicly traded companies in my list of clients. I'm not surprised there are crooks in government — just the pervasiveness which has been coming out since 2008's crash in the mortgage scam.
I mention the high number of Nazi war criminals yesterday who were skipped over "because there were just too many to prosecute". This will no doubt be the same if we do begin to get serious.
Grym
Re: OccupyWallStreet agenda tomorrow in Manhattan
Mr. Vadym, et al...please excuse my simplistic terminological tautology...let us not diminish the 'compost' analogy, after all, as a rural producer, I can vouch for the effective use of our table offal in growing great food products; in fact, we also use other disgusting eliminatory products, gently cultured that have borne the test of time for their efficacy.
Metaphorically speaking, there seems abundant sociological, regulatory 'compost' components being produced which, piled upon itself may create enough heat within to expunge the weed seeds that would otherwise devour the nutrients which we would rather go toward the sustenance of the common good, i.e. for those of us who identify as 'commoners'...
I'm not sure where the identity with capitalism is found within the founding documents, unless there is a co-opting of the idea of 'freedom'. I am open to education from any source on this matter.
The forming of a government (a body for use as a protecting and regulatory function) 'of, for and by the people', while not found in our Constitution, seems at least as much of a founding principle as the fear and rejection by Constitutional authors of the concept of corporate structure, which, as they feared has grown to subsume the democratic republic which they formed.
what more 'honest and decent' comparison to be found than the beloved 'compost'...
Re: OccupyWallStreet agenda tomorrow in Manhattan
Vad, NYUGrad, Craig,
The lack of focus is a problem.
This OWS crowd is even less focused than the Tea Party, but stems from a similar uneasiness concerning the direction our of our corporate existence at all levels — city, state, nation, and now global.
The average person doesn't know the answers or maybe not even the right questions, but they do know they/we are getting screwed! I expect it was the same before the American Revolution, the French Revolution and more recently in Libya.
The broad base is encouraging and at least it is a start in a quest for social equity and justice.
Grym
Re: OccupyWallStreet agenda tomorrow in Manhattan
Craig,
I read and watch all sorts of media. At FOX there are several news readers who I can take as just that, the same as any other source. But the cheerleaders like O'Reilly, Hanity and some others to a lesser extent, are just too much to cope with for any time.
Last night Hanity showed a video of some guy apparently threatening terrorism. He was shouting to someone off camera that they would respond to any violence with increased violence and ended with a threat of Molotov cocktails against Macy's. He did a high five with someone else (also off camera). There was no encouragement from others in the crowd, only blank looks.
Hanity then went on with his guest panel to add, Nancy Pelosi has endorsed this OWS movement.
Now Nancy is far from being my pin-up girl, but such inflammatory comments are just plain stupid and meant to discredit both OWS and Sean's political target — Democrats.
I don't know this to be the case, but the Nazis used plants in Poland and Czechoslovakia to excuse their "rescue" of Germans living in those countries. A very old and easy tactic which may be now trying to destroy OWS or anyone else who is complaining.
Whether or not the guy picture was sincere, the FOX presentation is hardly journalism and they should be ashamed.
Grym
Re: OccupyWallStreet agenda tomorrow in Manhattan
ank58pa,
"I'm not sure where the identity with capitalism is found within the founding documents, unless there is a co-opting of the idea of 'freedom'."
I see it implicit in the right to the "pursuit of happiness". Farmers, tradesmen, or whatever back then were less hindered by government interference and didn't expect subsidies or bailouts. They accepted the risks inherent in daily life.
It was the basic assault on their freedoms and imposition of taxes without their assent which stirred them to action.
Looks a bit like OWS to me. OWS 2.0 may be more focused and better targeted.
Grym