Bill Cara's Blog for Nov 22, 2011

http://on.ft.com/spfyZu

When it comes to their debt-to-GDP ratios, even ailing countries like Spain are in better shape, with values significantly lower than 80 percent. Critics, irritated by Merkel's and Schäuble's overly confident rhetoric, are beginning to find fault with Europe's self-proclaimed model country. "I think that the level of German debt is troubling," says Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, whose country has a debt-to-GDP ratio of just 20 percent.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,...

Watching German 10 year to see if they come under pressure as compared to Swiss notes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GDBR10:IND
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSWISS1...

Accumulation Zone: Monthly 11, Weekly 6, Daily 39
Distribution Zone: Monthly 3, Weekly 0, Daily 0

It seems to me that all MF Global clients were defrauded not just Canadians.

It appears that all clients were defrauded by Jon S. Corzine and top management, but do we all have the inside details as to what happened yet?

I think it's wrong to lump in all "Americans" for the actions of Corzine and gang and find it inflamatory in tone. I admit the response by CME, CFTC, other regulators, our government and the President has been dismal.

The whole situation stinks.

So anyone have any comments on Interactive Brokerage and their cash balance methods?

excellent question westcoaster...some of my questions are:
- why are these analyst not confident in their research and analysis?
- are they not confident because they don't do a thorough analysis or are they influenced by outside forces to put a "buy" recommendation?

GILD - Gilead downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Summer Street following the acquisition of Pharmasset (VRUS). The firm views the deal as risky given the competitive market environment and the lack of data concerning Genotype 1 patients.

GILD - was upgraded at Citigroup from Neutral to Buy. $49 price target. Company can potentially dominate hepC market with Pharmasset(VRUS) acquisition.

Telestar3d,

The 'America' brand has taken a beating, for years now. Mr. Corzine was one of your President's chief fundraiser in '08. There are many smug observers, Canadians included, who believe our standards are superior and this 'conservative' approach allowed us to evade much of the public disgrace resulting from the rampant fraud which is obvious to many now. MF Global highlights Canadian regulatory failure as well.

Your immediate reflex to point a finger at some other group will not focus the attention on the issue at hand. Fraud has been committed and NOONE will be prosecuted for this incident, or for the hundredss of thousands of fraudulent transactions which swindled the middle class of America from 'The American Dream'.

The American justice system has been repeatedly raped- this is fact, inspite of what Bloomberg declares. IMO, Canada is not better, just concealed from public display right now.

The broad and collective victim is CONFIDENCE. America can come out of this, but recognizing we are all individually responsible for the actions of our 'leaders' is the way to engage a population toward true reform. America's reputation is under attack, yet American battleships are positioning for foreign wars, while the Multinational Corporations pillage the Homeland. War and chaos are frequently the last act of desperation for tyrants.

The sociopaths involved in modern leadership do not care about the American brand, or German or Canadian or Zimbabwean. They are people with no National loyalty. They are foreign money powers. They are Globalists pursuing domination.

Individuals can disrupt this march toward the "New World Order." The irony is we will all have to discard our xenophobic tendencies which TPTB constantly exploit to their advantage.

Respectfully,
pulse

Bill, I look forward to you sharing IB's response, thank you.

This site and the information available here is truly outstanding.

Thanks again for your efforts all these years. T3D

And thanks to all participants who post and share their ideas.

been waiting to see if FSLR ever closes that Feb. 07' gap, around $ 35.00...

I have been keeping my eye on a watchlist of solar stocks. No true signs of a bottom as a whole. There are two companies that I may be interested in taking a position in once the solar industry seems to have bottomed are STRI and GTAT. Both companies supply components to a broad array of solar panel producers (as opposed to being panel producers themselves) so I think they stand a much better chance than some of the actual panel makers. Still haven't seen enough evidence of a bottom to take the plunge into solar though........

agree... with the ' funding ' crisis about to go wack-a-mole, could see some Really low prices... ( ps. great call on DNDN ' bounce ' at $ 7.00, Billy )..

"Silvercorp Metals (NYSE: SVM) was downgraded by equities research analysts at Zacks Investment Research from an “outperform” rating to a “neutral” rating in a research note issued to investors on Tuesday (today)."

I don't subscribe to Zacks. Does anyone?

Thanks Bill, that report does shed some light - especially on FSLR's move today dropping below 42 support while at the same time STP is up +12%.

Though to be fair, estimates of $3.74 for FSLR give it a forward PE of 9. I wish I saw more support for FSLR.

For the initial release, not on a cheap end: http://goo.gl/qKKQs

I guess deals will come in a few months on it.

"Suspicion in Iran that Stuxnet caused Revolutionary Guards base explosions

"DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 18, 2011, 2:29 PM (GMT+02:00)

"Is the Stuxnet computer malworm back on the warpath in Iran?

"Exhaustive investigations into the deadly explosion last Saturday, Nov. 12 of the Sejil-2 ballistic missile at the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Alghadir base point increasingly to a technical fault originating in the computer system controlling the missile and not the missile itself. The head of Iran's ballistic missile program Maj. Gen. Hassan Moghaddam was among the 36 officers killed in the blast which rocked Tehran 46 kilometers away."

(Tehran reported 17 deaths although 36 funerals took place.)

http://www.debka.com/article/21496/

"Since the disaster, experts have run tests on missiles of the same type as Sejil 2 and on their launching mechanisms."

"Canada's provincial securities regulators had no clue that segregated cash accounts owned by Canadians were not in fact segregated. This shows the deplorable state of regulation in Canada."

Bill,

It is a major problem in any free market system where-- in the final analysis-- the functioning of all major parties within the law must be taken for granted, else all will become paralyzed with "red tape" and overseers/regulators. Apparently, firms such as MF Global must file weekly reports showing that their customers' accounts remain segregated. I assume that these were somehow "doctored."

"All I want here is to keep the pressure on the regulators to remind them they have a mandate and they are failing repeatedly because they are not focused on what's important to the users of capital markets."

I think the problem is simply that you cannot expect $100,000 p.a. regulators-- and few enough at that-- to meaningfully ride herd on $100,000,000 "experts." My solution would be to outsource regulation and pay bonuses for detection of fraud, etc.

I really have no idea. I just know the ipad2 is great. ipad3 is coming. And now that Asus model also looks like something i should consider.

for now, all i use is my HP laptop and iphone 4. And steal my gf ipad2 once in a while.

NYUGrad -

"Banking in general needs to become boring as the post office, once again. the high fliers need to be those who take on the risk and start new companies based in the U.S."

Boring Banks: That's a done deal. Banks are being forced to hold public debt and make due with the discount window spread or be shuttered for providing leverage to Main Street. Only problem is those who are ready to take on REASONABLE risk and start or expand enterprise (private/Main St) now lack the liquidity and REASONABLE leverage to do so. Regional and NY cabal banks are working in reverse to withdrawal critical lines of credit for small business which represents 70% of the productive GDP. It's really public debt and unintended consequence of saving the banks that will crush the productivity and reduce the net exports of our economy. How the hell can you even make payroll without a line? The Bernank obviously never worked in the private sector and has no clue.

Cheers.

Bill,

Sometime back in the summer you had posted this list. Has CS updated it?

"Not that I'm equating the banking industry with the Gambino crime family of course."

I had to suppress about 5 jokes triggered by this line... (grin)

The folks in Belgium have instructed Swiss Banks to repatriate all Greek accounts back to banks in Greece. Thin edge of the Wedge. Chilling. While you're there read how ECB engineered Berlusconi Downfall (Brandy)

http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/
Scroll down to
Saturday, November 19, 2011
On Capital Flight and Forced Repatriation

I rarely hold my es position past 4pm. but that was a sweeet selloff and i am glad i held on until 4:10pm. Just closed out.

Choppy trading day but i eeked out 7 ES points. I over traded today. will have to review my entries and exits but i had 4 winners and 5 losers. Most of my losers are stops which is acceptable. But i am sure there were some ill advised entries today from yours truly

Half of my entire day profit was made in those last 5-10 minutes.

Off to another client happy hour.

and my breadth indicator still says the bias is short.

http://bit.ly/uUxKwk

Tomorrow should be interesting with lighter volume. I may just trade a much smaller lot of ES futures contracts to reduce risk, or just trade on simulation mode.

Since this story broke he has been MIA?

Repudiated, devalued, hung foreign account holders and bondholders out to dry. Doing well already. Compare to Ireland.
http://blogs.ft.com/martin-wolf-exchange/2011/11/2...

Outsource it to the Chinese. Penalties to be paid on China mainland.

You are most likely very right.

Per wall st j

copy/paste. (google "Fed Outlines Plans for New Bank Stress Tests")

WASHINGTON—The Federal Reserve on Tuesday outlined plans for annual tests of the financial strength of the largest U.S. banks and said some of the results would be made public.

Banks must submit their plans to the Fed by Jan. 9 for the "stress tests," which apply to 19 firms that participated in similar tests earlier this year and 12 more with at least $50 billion in assets that have not participated in similar tests before, the Fed said.

The Fed said the banks would have to test their ability to withstand a scenario of a new recession beginning at the end of this year, with an increase in unemployment to above 13% in early 2013 and "a sizable shortfall in U.S. economic activity and employment, accompanied by a notable decline in global economic activity."

The goal is to "ensure that institutions have robust, forward-looking capital planning processes that account for their unique risks," the Fed said in a statement.

The Fed has conducted two rounds of special stress tests for the nation's largest banks, which have been deemed crucial to the health of the financial system.

The first round, in spring 2009, acted as a public confidence-boosting exercise and allowed banks to repay money they received from the Treasury Department's Troubled Asset Relief Program.

The second round, completed in March, cleared the way for some banks to immediately boost dividends to shareholders. However, some weaker institutions were not approved. Bank of America Corp., for example, had its request for a dividend increase turned down.

Bankers want to use spare cash to placate investors, but the Fed said it will only allow them to do so if they can demonstrate that they are financially strong.

The central bank said it "will approve dividend increases or other capital distributions only for companies whose capital plans are approved by supervisors and are able to demonstrate sufficient financial strength" to withstand a time of market stress.

When the stress tests are complete, the Fed said it will publicly disclose its estimates of bank revenue and losses and estimates of bank capital ratios for the 19 largest firms.

rosevillebill,

how about a trial with the jurors selected from those jailed during the OWS demonstrations.

As I understand it the big U.S. banks still do not mark their books to market.If that is true what good is stress testing since their books dont reflect the true story anyway.

Regards

westcoaster -

Yeah, the cap gain tax increase is 2013 so no big rush as I'd previously thought. But still divestment of such concentrated positions is likely since the family is only liable for gains since his untimely death in Oct of 2011 and would have been liable for the whole gain if he'd died in 2010 without estate tax. From Bloomberg:

"Under U.S. law, the trust can sell the shares and incur taxes only on the appreciation since Jobs’s death -- a gain of about $338 million. If Jobs had died in 2010, when there was no estate tax, his heirs would have faced the capital gains tax on his entire investment profit if they had sold. That provision lapsed in 2011 when the estate tax was reinstated." - Bloomberg

Our tax code is beyond logic.

I hate that choppy action. My long positions were stopped exactly at the low of the day. I should not have tried those countertrend trades in the first place, even though shorting VXX worked. Plan to rebuild short positions tomorrow.

At least bonds went up and I'm heavy on those.

I also picked up some rumors about QE3. Markets don't seem to reflect that except for gold/silver. Anything credible?

“The staff of the regulators is fairly junior and does not have the experience, professional qualifications and industry contacts that the retired persons I have in mind do. There is in fact a world of difference.”

Yes; that’s basically what I meant when I compared the $100K regulator with the $100M “expert.” Moreover, that $100K regulator hasn’t devoted his whole life to looking for loopholes in and arcane uses of the law,

As for how we are to choose the private regulators—we would just ask them to submit a resume and proposal. Fortunately, it should take rather less knowledge to evaluate the bona fides of an “expert” than to duplicate that “expert” knowledge.

As for how we ensure compliance/enforcement, the threat of a private regulator "going public" might be better than the present system where the entire culture of the system is to "go along to get along." (And this threat is probably why my proposal has all of the chances of a snowball remaining such in hades.)

Sounds like a good reason for a beneficiary to favor life support in 2010. I do wonder if there was a bump in the mortality rate in January, 2011?

Well it has been a few days since my first silver futures trade using 3x exchange traded funds. Wondering at my exposure to risk and rewards I put together a chart tracking it's short history. If we go back a month and use that as the base line for change it draws a very interesting chart especially when you look at the violent down days and how they both finish about in the same territories for maximum loss and how much higher the futures trade over physical silver the rest of the time.

Saw evidence that some people are removing metals from the COMEX that they own which was being stored in their vaults. Another interesting addition to the time line going forward is the Sprott investment in physical silver which can happen in 14 days. I feel the climate in world indebtedness and unfounded solutions will only help raise the price of silver in the next few months.

If that is the case then I hope my redirecting assets from PSLV the physical to USLV future silver contracts leveraged three times is a winner.

Please click the right arrow indicator on the chart days under the chart to expand it to a month.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?uslv%2...

Thanks for making me think like this.

Got Anything

I don't know where he is but I hope he did not return to his hometown of Taylorville, IL. That small county seat town in central Illinois might not welcome him, especially the corn farmers/hedgers.

I done already repudiated S.S. and Medicare. Do I still hafta GO?

Without REAL interest income on savings, the geezer community will be forced to increasingly swindle Uncle Sugar just for their rice, beans, electricity and property taxes. Remember that "we" were taught to VOTE as a civic duty. What public school in America still teaches any form of altruistic Civics for the greater good.

Man the lifeboats! Most American suckers have a vested interest in a government with a death wish as long as it pays their dole with newly printed Ferns, aka, Federable Reserve Notes.

Eventually rights will again become duties and we start over. Today rights without duties equals occupy somewhere.

normxyz,

I favor bounty hunters with a base salary and a percentage of what they save by catching violators. Perhaps an end of year bonus to the best hunter.

Grym