Bill Cara's Blog for Nov 30, 2010 [See post-close report]

Good morning.

6-8 Billion Dollar POMO Injection Scheduled For Today.

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9:00 - Case/Shiller
9:45 - Chicago PMI
10:00 - Consumer Confidence

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DOW - Dow Chemical initiated with an Outperform at Macquarie. Target $38

KGC - Credit Suisse upgraded Kinross Gold to Outperform from Neutral. The firm cites the company's growth profile and valuation for the upgrade. Price target remains $22.

MRK - Merck initiated with a Buy at CLSA. Target $47

PFE - Pfizer initiated with a Buy at CLSA. Target $25

RIMM - Research in Motion upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies who believes Research in Motion's new QNX platform is better than previously expected and will be a viable contender in the OS wars. Price target raised to $80 from $55.

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"Democracy is a device that ensures we shall be governed no better than we deserve." ~ George Bernard Shaw

Yes, that is a fresh ATH for gold. (Last one seen in June 2010)

"Commissioners with the CFTC had originally planned to consider a new rule on position limits at their December 1 meeting, but that rule likely will not be considered until either the December 9 or December 16 meeting, CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler said Friday [November 19, 2010]."

http://tinyurl.com/239skmv

The new Frank-Dodd regulation law requires the new position limits to go into effect no later than 180 days from the date the law was signed. The law was signed on July 21, 2010. The date of January 17, 2011 is 180 days from the laws signing.

This will have major implications for ETF prices of various commodities, the major ones being oil and metals.

Nature abhors a vacuum and for years now we have had a deplorable lack of transparency in governments and financial markets.

When something like this tilts to an extreme, you get an equal and opposite reaction and that is WikiLeaks.

Granted, it is a crude and blunt instrument that will cause collateral damage, but this is the pain that will lead to reform and responsibility at the highest levels.

We have had one scandal after another in the decade of 2000-2010 and the cycle needs to be radically broken. WikiLeaks has men in high places running scared and its about time, eh?

At the risk of starting a flood of opposing opinions, I will simply state that if you had a kid in the Middle East or were someone willing to aid us in to defend against terrorists you may see it as the treason it is.

They need to find the leaker, try him and punish the SOB!

Not everything is everybody's business.

I agree with Grym. (For once? ;)

There is no excuse for 'collateral damage-' I see nothing noble in it. Sacrifices for the greater good are fine when made voluntarily, whereas getting blindsided is just unacceptable. Aren't we the culture that strives for 'No man left behind?' There are better ways to fight for transparency.

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.ph...

looking for Cramer to come out with his spec. gold plays in next several days.. thinking his pals at Bac/Mer are whispering in his ear.. leaning toward their rec's....

I agree with Grym as well. We need the bankers, the union bosses, the crooked politicians and financiers exposed. The military/defense complex is also a worthy target. But anything that puts the "little people" at risk once again, is not something to play up.
J

http://tinyurl.com/2eodvq5

Is the Kinross Gold Corp briefing still available?

Sometimes it takes even something a little distasteful to fix a problem.

If a private can read this stuff than anyone can.
That means something is horribly broken and if it takes some embarrassment to get it fixed, then that is what it takes. Our government is incompetent and reminding everyone that the emperor has no clothes is a patriotic endeavor.

REMEMBER: NEVER....NEVER...write something in an email or blog you don't want repeated or made public. THAT is ALWAYS rule #1. Are you paying attention Mr. Obama and Hillary?

Well the next leak will be about a big U.S bank in early 2011, according to a recent interview of wikileaks owner.

We shall see if anyone cares enough to chase the leak down or if its thrown under the rug with a small $100m settlement.

Wikileaks To Target Bank Of America?

http://tinyurl.com/26rzz2a

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'bout time

Jack talks about a variety of topics with a focus on inequities in the capitalist system. The video should be available here within the next hour:
http://www.bnn.ca/

I think he meant the CTA Briefing but I don't recall there being one. I could be wrong either way.

Craig, nebish,

My point was simple:

"I will simply state that if you had a kid in the Middle East or were someone willing to aid us in to defend against terrorists you may see it as the treason it is."

There needs to be a sense of responsibility and judgment with such info. Those who give out info which endangers others should be punished, IMO. (Including the highest ranking individuals in the chain of command.)

This is not in the same category as bank scammers or other news topics. We're talking about possible life and death issues here.

Transparent news at "any cost" is stupid.

All the outrage over embarrassing the government by Assange, which they deserved. What about Bush and Cheney outing Valerie Plame who was a covert CIA agent investing WMDs? Is there no consequences for the people that really hurt this country by turning out a government operation that was top secret. Hypocrisy in our government is over the top, there is major problems in this country and lying, spinning, and smoke and mirrors won't work this time. Corruption and phony wars are the things that always brings down great empires.

From the article:

"The printing of money makes gold more valuable. You don’t have to be a genius to figure this out. The Johnny-come-latelies – the Paulsons, Einhorns and Soros – all figured out, when [the Fed announced the first round of quantitative easing], that they should own gold. It becomes more obvious every day as you see these financial challenges that we have in Europe. "

Grym, I read your concerns about the lack of "responsibility and judgement" on a number of issues on a daily basis. IMO, to expect an entity that is almost universally irresponsible and lacks any judgement to be so in one single area is rather naive.

Furthermore, to act immorally, illegally and irresponsibly, and to not hold SECRETS AS SECRETS is irresponsible and lacks judgement. To point out such errors is not the problem. That such problems exist IS the problem.

The very reason we have a FREE PRESS is to find and report important news.
If our government "secrets" are so easily found out, they aren't secrets.
What does it take to become a private in the armed forces? A pulse? We have people serving who aren't even citizens!

If a private can see and download diplomatic communications, then it is the duty of the press to inform the people that their government is incompetent and endangering their security.

It is also the duty of the press to inform the people of illegal and immoral activities done in the people's name.

It is almost impossible to be embarrassed about acting honorably, honestly, and to reveal secrets kept as true secrets.

Treason is when these responsibilities are not upheld. There are a few more steps up the ladder to find the true treason. If a private knew, then the Chinese, Russians, Iranians...nearly everyone already knew. But you, me and those who thought their secrets (and lives) would be safeguarded.

Additionally, like anyone who is undercover or works in that capacity, like a government witness for example.....they are only as secure as their protectors make them.
The "little people" who work in that capacity, more than anyone, DESERVE to understand how loose and lax their own security is if they choose to work for idiots that don't take their security and lives seriously.

Hammer1,

The Kinross briefing was produced in March of 2009. We will post it for you on this site. It will be available tomorrow. Go to "Site Index" / "Briefings", in the tool bar beside the picture of Bill.

Zachs came out w/ a buy rating on it and Roth Cap raised their tgt to 6+........remember now why covered calls are called stop gains as my KERX trades above the $5 calls I sold for this mo........oh well, a profit is a profit..... best to everyone

Thank you sir!

Sorry Craig, I mean if they break a law then they should be held accountable -we are a world of laws like it or not. it's what helps to seperate us from the run-of-the-mill cutwarms.

Luckily the primary law of our land IS the Constitution. It is the primary law by which all other laws are measured and applied.

If I were Mr. Assange's lawyer, I would ask: If my client is walking on the sidewalk and he trips over a supposed diplomatic secret written in chalk on the sidewalk, does this constitute espionage? Because, IMO, holding diplomatic "secrets" where they are essentially accessible by anyone, even the lowest ranking military serviceman, is hardly keeping secrets. I think the credit card number comparison is very close.
With all due respect, I think we need to aim our anger and angst higher, much higher.

In the last few days I saw a PBS story on how ALL internet traffic was routed through China for several minutes in April. ALL traffic, military, governmental, institutional, financial, all traffic. And this internet traffic routing made it possible for China to record all kinds of supposedly secret information. (Remember Google's problem in China?)
This is no accident and we need to be aware of it.

My questions is, WHO is responsible for security in the United States, and if it is possible for such things to happen, then who do we need to GET RID OF and who do we need to hire to make our data, REAL secrets and information secure?

How many here are aware this even occurred? How "secret" do you think your passwords and ID's are? How about the country's military secrets, let alone diplomatic embarrassments about Kaddafi's nurse?

In this sense, I think Wikileaks has done us a service...to illustrate how loose our security really is, and to have done it only with diplomatic communication. Just imagine what we DON'T know.
What could happen if we didn't know and didn't step up the pressure on the nit wits running the country? You can be sure the Chinese and other countries know what you don't. THAT is dangerous to our country and to our freedom, security and way of life.
As I say, we need to aim our anger and angst much higher. The treason, if there is any, is within our government.

.... the recipient (in the case of this article, police tracking criminals) can learn a LOT about you! (per Daily Telegraph, UK)

iPhone's keyboard logging cache, which was designed to correct spelling but meant that an expert could retrieve anything typed on the keyboard over the past three to 12 months, he said.

In addition, every time an iPhone's internal mapping system is closed down, the device snaps a screenshot of the phone's last position and stores it.
Investigators could access "several hundred" such images from the iPhone and so establish its user's whereabouts at certain times, he said.

In a further design feature that can also help detectives, iPhone photos include so-called "geotags" so that, if posted online, they indicate precisely where a picture was taken and the serial number of the phone that took it.

"Very, very few people have any idea how to actually remove data from their phone," Sam Brothers, a mobile phone researcher for US Customs and Border Protection told the Detroit Free Press.

"It may look like everything's gone but for anybody who's got a clue, retrieving that information is easy."

Pasted from

TWIMC,

I'm not concerned about "government embarrassment" neither am I excusing a lot of the behavior of the government — I have been as critical as anyone over much of what has been and continues to go on in Congress, the White House, bureaucracy, etc.

But...

The idea that everyone "needs to know" details of military operations at the possible detriment of either those who are in harm's way defending us, or foreign agents who want to stop the forces aligned against us, is far different than these other categories mentioned.

Our leaders seem oblivious to what real security is all about. Political correctness or political advantage seem to be in the forefront these days. The only thought given to the wars in the Middle East is when the most recent G.I. death is announced.

Media of all types are more concerned with being the first to cover a story and little care is given to the fallout or for that matter to investigating before blabbing what is often no more than gossip.

"Well, as we understand it, all of this starts with the United States itself. What they did was they created this gigantic data base of –an archive of these 250,000 cables. They put them not only on the State Department’s classified embassies’ websites, but on SIPRNET, which is the US Defense Department’s military Internet. That circulated to soldiers all across the world, everywhere the U.S. has got bases."

DUH. Essentially the U.S. Government published this material and distributed it world wide. Geniuses!

"We Have Not Seen Anything Yet": Guardian Editor Says Most Startling WikiLeaks Cables Still To Be Released
"In the coming days, we are going to see some quite startling disclosures about Russia, the nature of the Russian state, and about bribery and corruption in other countries, particularly in Central Asia," says Investigations Executive Editor David Leigh at the Guardian, one of the three newspapers given advanced access to the secret U.S. embassy cables by the whistleblower website, WikiLeaks. "We will see a wrath of disclosures about pretty terrible things going on around the world." Leigh reviews the major WikiLeaks revelations so far, explains how the 250,000 files were downloaded and given to the newspaper on a thumb drive, and confirms the Guardian gave the files to the New York Times. Additional cables will be disclosed throughout the week.

AMY GOODMAN: The Obama Administration is threatening to prosecute the online whistleblower WikiLeaks while scrambling to contain the global fallout from the group’s latest release of secret government documents. A trove of over 250,000 diplomatic cables from 274 American embassies has sent shockwaves worldwide. The revelations include new details of U.S. espionage on foreign and UN officials, the cover-up of U.S. bomb strikes in Yemen, the urging of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah for a U.S. attack on Iran, and disparaging internal portraits of foreign leaders. New cables released today show Chinese officials have voiced support for the reunification of the Korean peninsula, should North Korea collapse. Also of note is a memo from the U.S. Embassy in Honduras from 2008 that clearly states the military coup that ousted President Manuel Zelaya was illegal and unconstitutional. The cables also reveal Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, privately questioned the mental health of Argentine President Cristina Kirchner and asked U.S. diplomats to investigate whether she takes medication.

On Monday, Attorney General Eric Holder said the Justice Department and Pentagon are conducting an active, ongoing criminal investigation into the leaking and publication of the documents. The Washington Post reports federal authorities are considering charging WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange under the Espionage Act. At the White House, press secretary Robert Gibbs said the Obama Administration is weighing a range of punitive measures.

ROBERT GIBBS: Obviously, there is an ongoing criminal investigation about the stealing of and dissemination of sensitive and classified information. Secondly, under the administration- I should say administration-wide- we are looking at a whole host of things and I wouldn’t rule anything out.

AMY GOODMAN: An Army intelligence analyst, Bradley Manning, has been imprisoned since May when he was arrested on charges of leaking the classified material. In her first public comments since the cables’ publication, Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, denounced WikiLeaks, calling the latest release an attack on the international community.

HILLARY CLINTON: The United States strongly condemns the illegal disclosure of classified information. It puts people’s lives in danger, threatens our national security, and undermines our efforts to work with other countries to solve shared problems. This disclosure is not just an attack on America’s foreign policy interests. It is an attack on the international community. The alliances and partnerships, the conversations and negotiations that safeguard global security and advance economic prosperity. I am confident that the partnerships that the Obama Administration has worked so hard to build, will withstand this challenge. The president and I have made these partnerships a priority and we are proud of the progress that they have helped achieve and they will remain at the center of our efforts. There is nothing laudable about endangering innocent people. And there is nothing brave about sabotaging the peaceful relations between nations on which our common security depends. There have been examples in history in which official conduct has been made public in the name of exposing wrongdoings or misdeeds. This is not one of those cases.

AMY GOODMAN: Clinton herself is implicated in one of the biggest revelations to emerge from the WikiLeaks cables. The documents show both Clinton and her predecessor, Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, issued directives for spying on foreign officials. U.S. diplomats have been asked to obtain information from the foreign dignitaries they meet including frequent flier numbers, credit card details and even DNA material, like finger prints, iris scans. The United Nations is also a target of the espionage with one cable listing information gathering priorities for U.S. officials at the UN headquarters in New York. At the UN, the spokesperson for Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, Farhan Haq, declined to comment directly on the spying.

FARHAN HAQ: The United Nations is not in a position to comment on the authenticity on the document purporting to request information gathering activities on UN officials and activities. The UN is by its very nature a transparent organization that makes a great deal of information about its activities public and member states.

AMY GOODMAN: Despite refusing to directly criticize the U.S., Haq added that the UN relies on member states to adhere to treaties and agreements about respecting the privileges and immunities of the UN and other member states. Senior U.N. officials have reportedly approached the U.S. government about the spying and could soon make a formal complaint. Meanwhile, Ecuador has offered WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange residency in the country.

For more, I’m joined now from London by David Leigh, Investigations Editor of the Guardian of London. The Guardian and four other newspapers were provided advanced copies of the documents before WikiLeaks made them public. David Leigh, thanks again for joining us on Democracy Now! why don’t you lay out for us what you think are the most important revelations in these cables and why you decided to release them as well.

DAVID LEIGH: These revelations aren’t over yet. In fact, they’ve barely started. We at the Guardian and the other international news organizations will be making revelations, disclosures from now, day-by-day, for probably the next week or more. So, we haven’t seen anything yet, really. We’ve seen so far seen the surprising intelligence about North Korea, that China is willing to see it collapse, in effect. We’ve seen that the Arab leaders are keen to see the UN or United States bomb Iraq- I’m sorry, bomb Iran. We bombed Iraq already. These are the kinds and level of things we’re getting so far. In the coming days, we’re going to see some quite startling disclosures about Russia, the nature of the Russian state and about bribery and corruption in other countries, particularly in Central Asia. We’re going to see a wrath of disclosures about pretty terrible things going on around the world.

AMY GOODMAN: David Leigh, How did you get the documents?

DAVID LEIGH: We got the documents from WikiLeaks.

AMY GOODMAN: And the New York Times, this time around, though it joined with the Guardian and Der Spiegel and a few other news outlets around the world last time in getting them directly from WikiLeaks, this time they didn’t. Explain what happened.

DAVID LEIGH: We don’t regard that as having much significance. The documents were passed around among the media partners in the usual way. Remember, this is the third time that this group of newspapers has done this. We did the Iraq war logs and the Afghanistan war logs also with Der Spiegel in Berlin and with the New York Times. So, it’s the same deal as before.

AMY GOODMAN: So, did – was it you, The Guardian, that gave the Wikileaks documents over to the New York Times this time?

DAVID LEIGH: We were the ones who physically passed them over. I don’t know what significance you have for that.

AMY GOODMAN: Um, hm. Can you compare the release of these documents, this latest trove of diplomatic cables to what has been released before to the Iraq war logs and Afghanistan before that?

DAVID LEIGH: Well, it’s a different quality of material. Those were logs that were pretty sort of raw snapshots in military jargon of ongoing incidents. They were sort of field reports. “Now this is happening. Now that is happening.” This is a completely different kind of material. It’s essentially diplomatic dispatches. They’re written in English, written as pieces of connected prose, and they are carefully considered analysis of reports back to what ambassadors and their subordinates in all these foreign countries want to tell Washington what is going on.

AMY GOODMAN: One of the pieces you’ve done and you’ve done many of them on all of these leaks, but the latest one, David, how 250,000 U.S. embassy cables were leaked from a fake Lady Gaga CD to a thumb drive that is a pocket-sized bombshell, the biggest intelligence leak in history. Take us through it.

DAVID LEIGH: Well, you want me to take you through how the mechanism of the leak?

AMY GOODMAN: Yes.

DAVID LEIGH: Well, as we understand it, all of this starts with the United States itself. What they did was they created this gigantic data base of –an archive of these 250,000 cables. They put them not only on the State Department’s classified embassies’ websites, but on SIPRNET, which is the US Defense Department’s military Internet. That circulated to soldiers all across the world, everywhere the U.S. has got bases. As a result, it was accessible to a junior soldier cleared to the secret level and above, a 22-year-old Bradley Manning, according to the subsequent indictment. According to the chat logs Manning had with somebody else, he went in there with a CD marked Lady Gaga, reported to lips sync to it and nod his head to the time of the non-existing music, while all the while covertly downloading this stuff. He walked out with a CD. By the time the Guardian got it, it was on a thumb drive, a tiny little thumb drive and had 1.6 gigabytes of material, which contains 250 million words."

So now it's in the Guardian/NY Times/Der Spiegel hands. The press.
Lady Gaga indeed.

Just imagine if we just dealt above board and didn't engage in this behavior to start with. Remember, a lie makes it around the world before the truth gets up in the morning......but sooner or later the truth comes out.

Re: "The Obama administration is looking, unfortunately and foolishly, like the Nixon administration. When are we going to learn?"

Do far, so is the lame duck session of congress and the Lame leadership.

I.E.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aDZy6zWeio&feature...

Pierre- I will add what little I have to offer to Bill's comments. When you say 'without risking the family livelihood,' hopefully that refers to limiting your position size in CSCO (or any single stock) to a safe percentage. That would normally be no more than 6-8% of your total portfolio. Good luck!

While very "safe", hopefully, unless there is a market wide crash, having a max of 6-8% in any one thing also means that your potential gains, even if you hit a big winner, will also be small.

I limit to 1/3, anymore, unless things get silly, and then I can get pig headed enough even to sell my car (it was a BMW M Roadster with very low miles) to buy shares when 100% isn't enough.

If it wasn't for that risk taking mentality in the face of panic, I'd be poor today. Obviously I would only consider doing such a thing if I felt the probability of loss was very low, and the probability of profit was very high.

Just my 2 cents worth of experience, not a recommendation to others how THEY should allocate THEIR money. I have always had a hard time sleeping when I was 100% long any particular stock, and for good reason, but those big bets would account for 2/3 or 3/4 of the wealth I have today, as compared to if I'd limited to 8% and left the rest in cash because its so rare I can find 2 things worth owning at any given time.

http://tinyurl.com/ddrd9z

I was lying in a burned out basement
with the full moon in my eyes
I was hoping for replacement
When the sun burst thru the sky
There was a band playing in my head
and I felt like getting high
I was thinking about what a
friend had said
I was hoping it was a lie

A downer on a down day always works for me. Getting turned down (by the market) enhances the effect of a stark solo- the flip side of celebrating with a driving bass.

Weekly chart looks a bit like SPX has seen a double top.

Being an agnostic, I could of course also say 'That is exactly the kind of pattern I need to see.'

Hurrah to Craig.... You don't post often anymore except for these "exceptional" issues. Thanks.

I am holding CYB also but why is it shrinking lately? Against the tide of $USD which it is somewhat tied to?

Dave , you said "The ECB and the IMF are attempting to strong-arm all the periphery nations into taxpayer funded bailouts, and so far nobody has said no. " I think that the two countries that have refused to be involved with the EU and bailouts should be spoken about more . Iceland is venturing into talks again to join the Euro, but they allowed their banks to fail. Yes they are still in a recession but a recession with out the monstrous debt blocking out the clear sky of their futures that the U.S. and Europe have to contend with . The other is Greenland a real democracy where the government obeyed the result of a referendum of the people. Greenland left the EU IN 1985. Yes it only has a workforce of 28,000 and relies on fish for 82% of its exports . Most surprising is that " that the average income of the islanders today is higher than those living in Britain, Germany and France. " . Perhaps if we had not bailed out the MASTERS of the universe , those who practice Banking theater and Investment theater ,we might be in a recession but have clear sky ahead. No to debt slavery . Bob. http://tinyurl.com/39u7m2a

Thanks for your opinion. Am still holding CYB as a money market safe haven but hated to see it decline rapidly lately.

2nd - "That is exactly the kind of pattern bulls need to 'see.' "

And that's exactly what the bears are HOPING the bulls will see that the bears see.

My goodness, things aren't that complicated. TA is about recognizable patterns, not about triple-think. Enter short now, put a stop above the old high. If it doesn't reverse, your losses are limited. Or you can also wait for a bounce, and if it fails to regain the old high, then short.

I'm not seriously loading up short, but it does look like an intriguing possibility. US treasuries are rallying, the buck is rallying, the euro looks to be in trouble again, China central bank is tightening - overall it doesn't look like a growth period is ahead. Things seem to line up for the double top being legitimate. But if its not, that's what those stops are for.

The circus continues

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileak...

Interesting article on what to watch for when reading press releases
http://www.goldgeologist.com/mercenary_musings/mus...

Here is another one on interpreting drill results
http://www.goldgeologist.com/mercenary_musings/mus...

The author focuses on rare-earths in these two articles but provides good information on how to do your own DYOD on Jrs on his website.

Analyst speculation in Ambrose's latest that Italian contagion in bond yields happening now may force action from Europe's Central Bank. Something to watch.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/f...

Sinn Fein is picking up votes as Irish fury increases towards the political class. Calling it a "disgrace", Gerry Adams attitude - if successfully elected - raises the slim possibility of default.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/f...

ALOHA!!

From John Kaiser-BottomFisher today regarding Tasman Metals(TSM:CVE)a rare earths play:

Not mentioned is an informal tidbit I have just picked up that the final tranche of the $1.50 Tasman private placement was picked up by a fund within the George Soros group.

I love to find hidden pearls that point to huge hedge funds moving into the junior exploration/mining sector. Here is another one that has been hidden from view. This tells me the big fish are looking for those 7400% gains ...

I have long touted "private placements" PP as a vehicle to buy shares off the market, with deep discounts. This is something I have used extensively to accumulate shares.

I still think the 900lbs gorilla could dump the rare earths sector ...

most bullish signal to date I would think but who knows.