CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.
This morning I received an e-mail from Zacks –
“I Was Wrong by Steve Reitmeister
There is no recession. There is no bear market.
This was not an easy conclusion to come to. However, after weighing all the evidence before me it is time to get back on the Muddle Through Economy bandwagon. And that leads to more upside for stocks in the months ahead.
Get the full picture in my latest article:
I Was Wrong
Best,
Steve Reitmeister
Executive VP, Zacks Investment Research”
Obviously, no one is right all of the time and I am not picking on Steve. The only reason that I mention this is because he is not the first to admit that the economy is not as bad as they thought – which is what Bill has been saying all along; “where’s the fire?” I expect more changes of opinions in the coming days and weeks.
This morning, stock futures are lower. I heard on Bloomberg that the reason for this is critics of the European plan. Sure, traders are going to poke holes in the plan, but the reason for the pullback is not specifically that. Yesterday, more shorts were squeezed, traders felt that they needed to get on board the rally if the plan was indeed sound and no one story is the reason behind a weaker open this morning. The real reason is simple; reversion to the mean. The market rallied hard yesterday and now it is coming off. Without a story, financial TV would be out of business, so they will always tell you one. I’m waiting for the story that the market sold off because of Italy, Portugal, Spain or more issues with Greece. Mark my words, this issue is not over by a long shot and will lead to more volatility in the future.
I mentioned a few weeks ago that the S&P 500 may rally off the lows up to the 200 dma. Yesterday, the index broke above the 200 dma and ended up closing above it. The SPY closed almost right on it. Now we will see how the market reacts to the 200 dma.
So; now that Europe has a plan to avoid a meltdown, concerns about the US economy are dimming and the end of earnings season is approaching with the majority of companies doing well, what is going to drive the market now?
I believe that the bulls will be out in force now that we have rallied. Picking tops is much tougher than picking bottoms (like we did a few weeks ago) but once market sentiment is overly bullish the market should decline. Simply put, once everyone is on the wagon, the wagon loses a wheel and we want to avoid being with the majority at that time. Btw, that time may be around November 7th, give or take a few days.
The story at the next top may very well be one of inflationary fears so keep your ears to the ground for those rumblings.
Have a great trading day!
Good morning.
Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.
| Symbol | Name | Last Trade | Change | Related Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^ATX | ATX | 2,070.00 |
 22.00 (1.05%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^BFX | BEL-20 | 2,203.15 |
17.35 (0.78%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FCHI | CAC 40 | 3,362.52 |
6.10 (0.18%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^GDAXI | DAX | 6,335.58 |
2.26 (0.04%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^AEX | AEX General | 312.69 |
2.76 (0.87%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^OSEAX | OSE All Share | 444.49 |
4.30 (0.96%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^OMXSPI | Stockholm General | 318.05 |
1.15 (0.36%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SSMI | Swiss Market | 5,837.62 |
 14.62 (0.25%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FTSE | FTSE 100 | 5,696.91 |
16.91 (0.30%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| FPXAA.PR | PX Index | 967.60 |
15.00 (1.57%) |
Chart, More |
| ESI500000000.MA | IGBM | 928.21 |
4.53 (0.49%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| MICEXINDEXCF.ME | MICEX Index | 1,524.75 |
0.77 (0.05%) |
Chart, More |
| GD.AT | Athex Composite Share Price Index | 811.11 |
37.30 (4.82%) |
Chart, More |
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL
The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.
Enjoy your day.
Cara on Trends & Cycles
Vad's Catch of the Day
Kaimu's Sound Money
Stephen Wellman
First off I would like to extend a big Mahalo (Thank you), to Bill Cara and his family for the CTA Conference 2011 in Whistler, Canada. It was my first time in Canada and I flew in early to meet up with junior exploration management at various locations in Vancouver. Vancouver is a fantastic city, just beautiful. I will come back again. Mahalo Vancouver and Mahalo Canada …
BRING IT ON BUSH 2003
And he did “bring it on”! Most of us are pretty much sorry he did at this point.
We start with George Bush back in 2003 to remind you of what happens when government and bankers get together to solve a monetary issue. They just think it’s economic, but how can you intervene effectively when you do not even know what you are intervening on? The patient has been completely misdiagnosed, not by accident. Historically, government powers in America have been at their zeniths only during “emergencies”. This time however we have never lived under global conditions where money can be created in nanoseconds with the click of a mouse. To say this is not a monetary crisis is to assume that the monetary system employed to do TARP and Stimulus 1-3 and QE as well as all the EU equivalents and the capital needed to intervene on global futures and stock markets daily is not corrupt. It takes a corrupt monetary system to increase money supply at will with every conceivable political whim backing it. We are all running on global human nature whereby blank checks abound filled to the brim with 9999s.
Here we go down “SubPrime Memory Lane”! George Dubya, my man, take it away …
"Low interest rates mean that people, for example, have got the capacity to refinance their home. And probably some of you all have done that. That's helped our economy. The Azels, who I met with today, Kelly and Dan -- by the way, he's got a scratch handicap. [Laughter]. I told him I needed a lesson or two. He said that they were able to take their first home -- they're newly wed, and the first thing they do is they buy a home, thanks to low interest rates. It's a fantastic way to start off your marriage. They then were able to refinance, which meant they could do some remodeling on their home. They paid off the loan on their car.
"Low interest rates has helped the American citizens. It's helped them buy a home. It's helped them refinance if they own a home. It's put more money in circulation, which is good for job creation. Low interest rates makes it easier to buy a home. And homeownership is at near-record highs, and that's good because we need to be an ownership society in America. We want people owning their own home. If you own your own home, you have a vital stake in the future of this country.
"And even though homeownership is at near-record highs, we've got too many of our fellow citizens who happen to be minorities who don't own a home. Seventy-five percent of the Anglos in America own a home. The minority homeownership in America is below 50 percent. And it seems like to me we've got to do something about it. If it's good for America that people own a home, we want people from all walks of life owning their own home.
-George W. Bush - October 15, 2003 in Dinuba, California -- per capital income of $11,566, and the epitome of the state's eventual housing meltdown.
From Cunning Realist, This Week In Bubble History.
http://cunningrealist.blogspot.com/
About the only thing George Bush overlooked in his OWNERSHIP speech in 2003 was the fact that all those homeowners never owned a “home” they owned a “mortgage”! They owned DEBT … It is something the US Congress and Oprah have never fully understood. We are NOT the wealthiest country in the World, we are the most indebted!
“And it seems like to me we've got to do something about it. If it's good for America that people own a home, we want people from all walks of life owning their own home.”
Who appointed George Bush and Congress GOD? Why is it that government suddenly feels compelled to do something about a 25% home ownership disparity between Anglos and minorities? Also why is it “good” that Americans own homes? The essential translation is that it is “good for Americans to be in debt”, so in reality it is good for “banks” not people; especially not good for people who cannot afford homes. We have witnessed the intrusion of government into our lives and now we are paying dearly for those consequences which will be a debt inherited by our children and the generations afterwards. Now finally, maybe some Americans will wake up to the values of the US Constitution which speak directly to limited and small government. What we have now is government largess out of control and I find it hard to believe that anyone would trust this same government largess to resolve the same issues it has been creating for decades.
The destruction of the US Middle Class … MISSION ACCOMPLSHED!
From this debacle we got TARP …
THE WORLD ACCORDING TO TARP!
If you believe that the Middle Class in America means anything to our economy and moral stability then perhaps we can agree that a demise of this now austere group would not be in the country’s best interest, not even in the bank’s best interest. But how do you bailout the Middle Class like the banks got bailed out with TARP?
Well, this is America before and after TARP .
I would love to see that same chart only instead of US population make it Fortune 500 companies.
EXPANDING NET indeed … As you can see by this chart where it took the Middle Class from 1983 to 1991, eight years, to move from 30% to 35%, just 5%, it only takes three years to do that same 5% today. Government is now working on ways to expand the 99% and shrink the 1%! Move over OWS Uncle Warren needs a tent …
Nearly half, 48.7%, of the population lived in a household that received some type of government benefit in the first quarter of 2010, according to Census data. Those numbers have risen since the middle of the recession when 44% lived in households receiving benefits in the third quarter of 2008.
Means-tested programs, designed to help the needy, accounted for the largest share of recipients last year. Some 34.2% of Americans lived in a household that received benefits such as food stamps, subsidized housing, cash welfare or Medicaid (the federal-state health care program for the poor).
If more and more Americans need government assistance to survive then that must mean the Middle Class income is inadequate to meet the cost of living increases. Cost of living is just another polite way to say price inflation, which is a monetary event, a store of value event. Can we really ever return to the pre-bubble days when George Bush gave his famous OWNERSHIP speech when 48.7% of America needs government assistance? Who will be left to spend our way back to economic prosperity?
Wow … the “Personal Consumption Expenditure” deflator from the BEA. What a beautifully political way of saying price INFLATION! Or in layman’s terms - YOUR BUCK BUYS LESS!!
Middle Class can be defined as a store of monetary value. When money loses value it takes more of it to maintain Middle Class standards as defined by the previous generation. Each generation has degrading standards of living as long as money has no store of value. Eventually no discernable Middle Class exists and the floating currency of irredeemable paper creates a Soviet state where only corruption survives and we see those who are closely linked to government prospering while the masses who are the most disconnected from government largess subsist in government sponsored poverty. The system will eventually be swamped by debt levels that not even Reserve Currency status can contain, which is what happened to the USSR. The Iron Curtain was an IOU. All IOUs have expiration dates.
It seems the US Middle Class is being debauched via currency devaluation. Well for FY2011 the US Treasury injected $3.8TRIL USD directly into the US economy via food stamps, social security checks, Medicare, Medicaid, federal workers pay, military pay, Defense contractors and an endless list of other suppliers and largess beneficiaries. It only took three of those line items to inject over $1.6TRIL into the economy. Those three line items are Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Those three line items expended all net tax revenues for FY2011 alone. That left some 31 other line items that had to be paid via debt issuances. The total net debt issuances for FY 2011 came to $1.2TRIL USD. Total net debt issuances and net outlays totaled $3.8TRIL in FY2011. It cost the US Treasury some $3.8TRIL to PRICE FIX the Middle Class and the Industrial Welfare Complex for one more year, 365 days.
THE TREASURIFICATION OF AMERICA
For October 24th, 2011 …
We have a total of $370BIL USD in combined net debt and net outlays for the first 16 work days of the FY2012 and only net tax revenues of $108BIL USD; a 340%+ revenue deficit. Et tu GAO, et tu? We are running debt issues and outlays at the rate of $23.12BIL per day.
Just four US Treasury Statement line items consumed almost all of total net FY2012 tax revenues. It is the same four I have mentioned before; Defense, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. No surprise there.
Then this debt ceiling stuff again … Look how $900BIL goes fast!
Only $297BIL left to go before we need to raise the ceiling again. Budget Control Act of 2011 where are you? When does the “Control” part kick in? Nobody here runs a business or a household this way so it is sad to see a Nation that allows this.
Looking at this same time period in FY2011 we see that in FY2012 the US Treasury has taken in some $2BIL more in net tax revenues, but in FY2012 they have given all that up as the US Treasury has added some $45.5BIL in net debt issuance. So far in FY2012 the US Treasury has spent about $32BIL less than in FY2011, but we still have a negative number of $13.5BIL due to net debt issuances of $45.5BIL. All in all the US Treasury is in a worse fiscal state for FY2012 than FY2011, which bodes well for the further rise in gold prices, which translates to a further rise in global currency distrust.
THE OWS HAVE IT
I was wondering when there would be a more popular movement than the Tea Party; one that celebrities could openly endorse. Somehow it is not sexy enough to talk US Constitution or Founding Father and all those antiquated sayings like “Don’t tread on me!” or “Give me Liberty or Give me Death!” or my all time favorite antiquated saying … “Stick it to the MAN!” At any rate it feels antiquated enough …
I think going back in history is all we are allowed by the current elite regime of politics and banking. In politics we can look to LBJ and the Vietnam War to see how politics and the truth are distorted.
Here we have three audio tapes of LBJ talking to different politicians on Vietnam and how there “Ain’t no daylight in Vietnam”. First is with the Senator Richard Russell in March 1965.
http://whitehousetapes.net/clip/lyndon-johnson-richard-russell-there-ain...
On this tape LBJ and Defense Sec Robert MacNamara talk.
http://whitehousetapes.net/clip/lyndon-johnson-robert-mcnamara-assessing...
Next is with then Sec of Defense Robert MacNamara arranging their Vietnam political theater March 1964.
http://whitehousetapes.net/clip/lyndon-johnson-robert-mcnamara-explainin...
What are we to learn from these tapes? One is that we cannot trust politicians to be honest with the American public. I sincerely doubt any of the Presidential and Congressional ethics has changed since LBJ days other than ethics have gotten worse not better, but that is to be expected when money is corrupted to such a high level.
Now let’s look at how violent and confrontational the Vietnam War protests got …
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PL5RMSM6wBk&feature=related
The USA is headed back into the realm of Independence and the Declaration that We The People shall make this time will be much more powerful than just one War or one Vote. This time so many more of us, in fact every single American, is affected by the corruption from within now. It is not just draftees or blacks any more. It is an entire Nation struggling from the chaos to regain consciousness of higher values.
USURY AND HAIL MARYS
Hail Mary meets Usury …
u·su·ry/ˈyooZH(ə)rē
-The practice of lending money and charging the borrower interest, especially at an exorbitant or illegally high rate.
I will start off with this call by the Vatican for a “one world central bank”. I will then dissect the Vatican and its own Vatican Bank as a bastion of Godliness.
From Reuters …
Vatican Calls for 'Central World Bank' to Be Set Up
Published: Monday, 24 Oct 2011
By: Reuters
The Vatican called on Monday for the establishment of a "global public authority" and a "central world bank" to rule over financial institutions that have become outdated and often ineffective in dealing fairly with crises.
A major document from the Vatican's Justice and Peace department should be music to the ears of the "Occupy Wall Street" demonstrators and similar movements around the world who have protested against the economic downturn.
The 18-page document, "Towards Reforming the International Financial and Monetary Systems in the Context of a Global Public Authority," was at times very specific, calling, for example, for taxation measures on financial transactions.
"The economic and financial crisis which the world is going through calls everyone, individuals and peoples, to examine in depth the principles and the cultural and moral values at the basis of social coexistence," it said.
It condemned what it called "the idolatry of the market" as well as a "neo-liberal thinking" that it said looked exclusively at technical solutions to economic problems.
"In fact, the crisis has revealed behaviors like selfishness, collective greed and hoarding of goods on a great scale," it said, adding that world economics needed an "ethic of solidarity" among rich and poor nations.
"If no solutions are found to the various forms of injustice, the negative effects that will follow on the social, political and economic level will be destined to create a climate of growing hostility and even violence, and ultimately undermine the very foundations of democratic institutions, even the ones considered most solid," it said.
It called for the establishment of "a supranational authority" with worldwide scope and "universal jurisdiction" to guide economic policies and decisions.
Such an authority should start with the United Nations as its reference point but later become independent and be endowed with the power to see to it that developed countries were not allowed to wield "excessive power over the weaker countries."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45013499
This is serious business when the Vatican and the Pope cuts lose on the global citizenry and the Earthly banking system. We are all sinners before God.
Before we get into Sin let’s take a brief look at “usury” and its history. As we now know the new Libyan transitional government will be based on Sharia Law, which forbids usury, the charging of interest.
I am referring of course to the Catholic Church and its changed views of “usury”. At one time it was simply a Sin against the poor, but with the introduction of international trade and “risk” the view is that usury is acceptable so long as the profits are put to good use in the aid of your fellow man. Such vagueness has transpired into all sorts of fraud. Like what exactly is “risk” and what is “trade” and what is “profit”?
The Book of Exodus says this:
“If thou lend money to any of my people that is poor, that dwelleth with thee, thou shalt not be hard upon them as an extortioner, nor oppress them with usuries (Ex 22:25).”
Wow … “extortioner” and “oppressor”. I guess oppression is in the eye of the beholder. Is that what a bank or a government taxing income is? Certainly from my experience with the IRS they are no doubt “usury”!
Then we get this harsh death sentence of usury from Ezechiel …
“[He] that giveth upon usury, and that taketh an increase: shall such a one live? He shall not live. Seeing he hath done all these detestable things, he shall surely die, his blood shall be upon him (Ez 18:13).”
Then we get this from Deuteronomy 18:20 which allows usury to be used against foreigners which leads to this verse from De Tobia …
“From him [the foreigner], it says there, demand usury, whom you rightly desire to harm, against whom weapons are lawfully carried. Upon him usury is legally imposed… From him exact usury whom it would not be a crime to kill” (De Tobia, xv:51 – quoted from The Idea of Usury, Benjamin N. Nelson, Princeton University Press, 1949).
In essence both Jewish and Catholic Church teachings allow usury to destroy “enemies”. There is religious precedence for the use of “money” interest as a weapon of war. We have heard how the Chinese could wage economic warfare, but we also have the possibility of the US FED waging monetary warfare against its “enemies” as if the US FED was a sovereign state. I believe the US FED is a sovereign state existing with the borders of the American sovereign state. Is that criminal? I believe the Congress of 1913 that allowed the Federal Reserve Act to be lawful was a criminal act against the US Constitution and the people of the United States. There is a major war being waged today before our very eyes. It is global and it is usury that has enslaved entire countries with debt. We see this War waging every single day and every single time we see what goes on in Europe and here in America. This War of usury moves huge markets and makes losses of what were gains the prior day. This is a criminal act against all global citizenry. We have surpassed the bounds of sovereign sin into pure evil. We have the monetary system of a private banking cartel at the root of this global debt upheaval. The entire course of human events that led us to this vast catastrophe that started in 1913 needs to be seriously dealt with in the most uncompromising manner. In this case we do need to throw the baby out with the bath water and we need to throw the basinette out as well! Reform is a complete hoax, unless we shall buy into the belief that band-aids cure cancer!
But now we reside in this World of low rates, low Fed Funds Rates. Is that any less sinful to be denied a fair rate of return on sovereign debt issuances? What is fair and who is the God of fairness? So far it has been central bankers playing God for decades and decades.
How is it the Vatican can now proclaim to the World that we live under one giant central bank that makes us all slaves to that one entities whim? What experience does the Vatican have in banking? Oddly enough the Vatican does have its own bank, the Vatican Bank. Not one of those TBTF types, but still a bank. Has the Vatican Bank ever suffered scandal? One would think not but then you would be wrong.
Who here recalls Archbishop Paul Marcinkus, nicknamed “The Gorilla”? He was President of the Vatican Bank from 1971 to 1989. Here we read an article from the Arizona Republic newspaper from February 1980:
“Italian civil authorities tried to arrest Marcinkus in connection with a stunning array of crimes, including assassination financing, arms smuggling, and trafficking in stolen gold, counterfeit currencies and radioactive materials. Italian authorities also wanted to talk to Marcinkus regarding what he knew about numerous murders. Through the late 1970s and early 1980s, most every key player involved in schemes with Marcinkus ended up dead.”
“In the past six month, the Marcinkus case has taken on renewed interest around the world. Attorneys for Croatian holocaust victims want Marcinkus deposed in their billion-dollar case. They want to know what Marcinkus knows about hundreds of millions of dollars taken from Croatians by the Nazis during World War II. Authorities have discovered that much of the money passed through the Vatican Bank during Marcinkus’ tenure as bank president. Indeed, a 1998 U.S. State Department report confirmed that at least $47 million of Nazi gold was laundered by Marcinkus’ bank. The money ‘was originally held in the Vatican before being moved to Spain and Argentina,’ the report said.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Marcinkus
Okay … Goldman Sachs got nothing on the Vatican Bank!! In fact Goldman Sachs seems tame in comparison. Is Marcinkus Blankfein and Paulson’s role model? It appears that Marcinkus and the Vatican Bank might have had ties to the Mafia. The whole affair sounds sinister enough to be a Mafia episode in the Godfather. Then when the Vatican paid off some $145MIL pounds to creditors it seems more like your typical JP Morgan tactic. So is the Vatican Bank any different than a JP Morgan? Is there a VATPRIME in our future? It appears that even back in the 1980s that the Vatican Bank was having trouble paying priest pensions. This is what Marcinkus said back then, "When my workers come to retire they expect a pension; it's no use my saying to them. 'I'll pay you 400 Hail Marys.”
All through this process Archbishop Marcinkus has remained protected under the umbrella of Vatican diplomatic immunity, while residing in Sun City, Arizona. He denies all charges of wrongdoing, and has become famous for his reply, “You cannot run the Church on Hail Marys.”
Wow … “You cannot run the Church on Hail Marys.” Deep … very deep! So you need a profit …
The Archbishop resigned in 1990 due to the scandal and died in February 2006. Whatever secrets he may have had he has taken them to his grave.
I must say here I have no idea what became of this Archbishop or whether any of these charges were proved, but it seems a useless venture to prove something against someone who has diplomatic immunity and is not prosecutable. Much like how JP MORGAN and BARRICK GOLD were immune from prosecution in the Blanchard Coin lawsuit as they were both deemed “agents” of the US Federal Reserve. How do I get US FED “agent” status so I can go around committing crimes at will? Talk about a monopoly, these guys are above the law, I guess that qualifies as monopoly status …
So not only were Swiss Banks eventually caught laundering gold for the Nazis, but we see an American born Archbishop caught up in the exact same act in the name of the Catholic Church. Not only was the Church smuggling gold but they were trafficking “radioactive materials”. Any idea as to who got that “radioactive material” in the 1970s and 1980s. Was it Pakistan? I am sure the Vatican might say, like Goldman Sachs, that the Archbishop was a “rogue trader’; one not sanctioned. What good does that do humanity?
Let me just say this from my own personal memoirs. In 1970 I was a tourist along with my family to the Vatican. We saw the Sistine Chapel and the usual tourist sights, but my brother and I wandered off the tour and found this courtyard. We saw a door with a sign in Italian and English that read DO NOT ENTER. Being teenagers we automatically opened the door, which we were surprised was not locked. Obviously the Vatican was more trusting than they should have been! In the room there was gold stacked to the ceiling in the form of crowns and scepters and bars and coins, stuff looking very medieval. Only a piece of glass separated us from all that gold and gems. So maybe some of that gold we were looking at was Nazi gold. If a rich man has the same chance of entering the Kingdom of Heaven as passing through the eye of a needle what chance does a rich Church have? Or are churches exempt from hoarding Earthly wealth. I am not exactly sure what goes on in Heaven so I will defer to the “experts” on that subject … the ones who DO KNOW! I guess we need to contact CNBC for that.
THE SHOT HEARD AROUND THE LIVING ROOM
Looks like it’s not only time to drink the Kool-Aide but now the COLA … It is now safe for the “official inflationistas” to come out of the woodwork.
“Starting in January, 55 million Social Security recipients will get increases averaging $39 a month, or just over $467 for the year. In December, more than 8 million people who receive Supplemental Security Income, the disability program for the poor, will get increases averaging $18 a month, or about $216 for the year.
“It may not sound like much, said Max Richtman, president and CEO of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare. "But for millions of American seniors already suffering in this economy and facing years of rising costs, shrinking returns on their savings and no cost-of-living increases, today's COLA announcement lets them know there's some relief around the corner."
“AARP Executive Vice President Nancy LeaMond said the increase "underscores the importance of Social Security as the only guaranteed, lifelong and inflation-adjusted source of retirement income for most Americans."
“The annual cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, is tied to an inflation measure released Wednesday. The measure, which was adopted in the 1970s, produced no COLA in 2010 or 2011 because inflation was too low. Those were the first two years without a COLA since automatic increases were enacted in 1975. Social Security recipients did, however, receive a one-time $250 payment from the economic stimulus package passed in 2009.”END
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9QFGU602.htm
Let me do the math … $467 x 55million = $25.7BIL per year … That is how much the US Treasury will have to increase its direct annual money injection into the economy in order to secure votes that will retain power for the current members of Congress and the President. Note that even when there is no COLA there is still this thing called “stimulus”! Then there is this part …
“AARP Executive Vice President Nancy LeaMond said the increase "underscores the importance of Social Security as the only guaranteed, lifelong and inflation-adjusted source of retirement income for most Americans."
How did our government ever get into the business of guaranteeing anything, much less lifelong income? This is the cost of corrupt power that started in the days of FDR.
DAY ONE
From John Taylor, Economics professor at Stanford …
Day 1 of Economics 1
“I find the first day of the school year to be exciting, especially when a lot of first-year students are in my classes as is the case with Economics 1, the introductory economics course I teach at Stanford and the course which this blog is named after. Many Day 1 questions are interesting and revealing of the times: Q: “Is this course Keynesian or Austrian?” A: “Adam Smithian.”
“On Day 1, of course, we focus on the central idea that economics is about choices people make when faced with scarcity and the interaction between people when they make these choices. Accordingly, we modify slightly the Stanford motto, “The Winds of Freedom Blow” (Die Luft der Freiheit Weht) to get the Economics 1 motto: “The Winds of Economic Freedom Blow. Examples of opporunity costs this year were hi-tech leaders Mark Zukerberg, Steve Jobs and Larry Ellison, who considered the opportunity cost of college, dropped out, and did pretty well—or Eric Schmidt, John Chambers, and Art Levinson (Google, Cisco, Genentech) who also considered opportunity cost of college, stayed in, and also did pretty well.
“This year we are trying out a new Economics 1 lecture hall, CEMEX Auditorium in Zambrano Hall, named after the Mexican-based global cement company and its CEO Lorenzo Zambrano, who also didn’t drop out of college and then did well enough to donate the money for the lecture hall.”
http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/
Ahh … remember day one of college?
Interesting to note how the new students are asking about Austrian econ … There is hope yet!
I hear US Corporations are moving back to the USA, yet it takes CEMEX from Mexico to build a new Economics lecture hall at Stanford. Where are all those “well-to-do” Silicone Valley execs he speaks of when it comes to university infrastructure?
I wonder if Stanford allowed Mexican laborers for the project. When it comes to “cement” it is a rare day when you see no Mexicans on a cement crew doing Public Works projects in California! Not too many Americanos are willing and able bend over.
Globalization takes many forms.
“Whoever wants peace among nations must seek to limit the state and its influence most strictly.” - Ludwig von Mises, Human Action, 1949
“All money is a matter of belief.“ - Adam Smith
“In the history of the world, no one has ever washed a rented car.” - Lawrence Summers, Director of White House National Economic Council under Obama
“You know, I think the, the crucial thing, you know, we have put in place what is, is just simply the biggest, boldest recovery package in history, right; the stimulus package, biggest ever; the financial rescue, absolutely comprehensive; a housing plan - that is incredible medicine for the economy. And we fully expect it to work.” - Christina Romer, former Obama economic advisor
“Filipinos want beauty. I have to look beautiful so that the poor Filipinos will have a star to look at from their slums.” - Imelda Marcos
“I found this national debt, doubled, wrapped in a big bow waiting for me as I stepped into the Oval Office.” - Barack Obama, US President after George W Bush
CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Comments
Econoday Today
RSI Summary as of EOD 2011-10-27
Accumulation Zone: Monthly 4, Weekly 2, Daily 0
Distribution Zone: Monthly 11, Weekly 15, Daily 50
Professor Iron Ore’s lessons on China
http://on.ft.com/rseqF4
Cara 100 Ratings Changes For Friday
Good morning.
08:30 Personal Income/Spending (0.1%/0.6%)
08:30 PCE Prices (unchanged)
08:30 Employment Cost Index (0.3%)
09:55 Michigan Sentiment - Final
------
BBBY - Bed Bath & Beyond initiated with a Buy at Williams Capital. Target $77
BBD - Banco Bradesco downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at HSBC.
BMY - Bristol-Myers downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at CLSA citing valuation. Price target raised to $35 from $33.
JNPR - Juniper upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Mizuho.
POT - Potash downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Scotia Capital citing increased macro and fertilizer demand uncertainty.
WFM - Whole Foods upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse
Price target raised to $72 from $50.
------
Despite the tough economic times, violent crime continues to fall as newly released Justice Department statistics show that violent crime fell 13 percent in 2010. Authorities say the only explanation they have to account for the drop is that the economy has gotten so bad that not even violent criminals can find work anymore.
Cara 100 News & Views - Whirlpool (WHR)
Whirlpool lowers full-year outlook, plans job cuts:
http://is.gd/7NOscu
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Chevron (CVX): Chevron's quarterly profit more than doubles on upstream stength as revenue grows 27%.
http://is.gd/2mzzkq
(GR) Fitch: A 50% haircut on
(GR) Fitch: A 50% haircut on Greek debt would constitute a "credit event"
Party poopers...
November 23
So when are the big deficit Super Committee theatrics in the media going to begin? I can't help feeling any further run up is temporary as another farce will destroy market confidence.
Chevron Reports Third Quarter
Upstream earnings of $6.2 billion increase $2.6 billion on higher prices for crude oil
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chevron-reports-t...
Bill,
Thanks for posting VL report before the conference. Conference re-inforced my reasoning to buy CVX.
Re: November 23
I have a feeling they'll compete with Italian CDS for the focus of attention.
A Brief Guide to the Eurozone Crisis
1. It isn’t over.
2. The European Monetary Union’s (EMU) “architecture” is a failure.
3. They spent too much and can’t possibly repay the debt.
4. Banks will need to be bailed out.
5. They will print money.
from Minyanville...complete article here: http://is.gd/Ml5uKC
Rumor that Fed is printing to help Europe
This is how:
Zerohedge posted charts showing an unprecedented massive selling of US bonds by foreign holders.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/foreigners-sell-seco...
The rumor has it that the buyer is our own FED under the guise of operation twist.
Cara 100 Update
AET - target raised at Goldman to $53. Positive earnings call commentary. Maintain Buy rating.
BIDU - PT Lifted from $175 to $185 @ Brean Murray. Buy
BMY - target raised at UBS. BMY price target increased to $32. Launches still key, growth continues. Neutral rating.
JCP - Nomura Initiates with a Neutral.
KO - is begun with a Buy at Deutsche.
KSS - Nomura Initiates with a Neutral.
Okay, I'm calling BS
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-28/economy-i...
And a story yesterday from the same ilk.....can't find the link.
People, these GDP numbers are with "chained" dollars. For us normal people that's NOMINAL dollars. So say I am a baker (or an orchid grower) and I sold 2M whole loaves of bread (or 6" pot orchids) in 2007. This year I sold 2M HALF loaves (3" potted orchids) for the same price as the 2M whole loaves in 2007.
Did GDP go up? What a load of horse pucky.
We are no where close to where we were in 2007.
Less productivity in real terms, less jobs, less wages, less currency value.
LESS! Only more nominal dollars.
German Constitutional Court Halts Special Euro Panel
Germany's highest court has issued a temporary injunction banning the work of a new panel convened by the country's parliament to quickly green-light decisions on disbursement of taxpayer funds through the euro bailout program. The decision could lead to further delays in German decision-making in efforts to rescue the beleaguered common currency.
Germany's Federal Constitutional Court on Friday expressed doubts about the legality of a new panel of lawmakers set up by the German parliament to reach quick decisions on the release of funds from the euro bailout mechanism...
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518...
Re: (GR) Fitch: A 50% haircut on
The poor dears, actually having to pay out on all those CDS. What a horrifying thought.
Now we'll get to see just how many Greek CDS were written. This should make things more interesting.
speaking of scotch...
for you whiskey, rye and scotch drinkers...
whiskylive is coming to toronto november 4th at the Metro Toronto Convention centre:
http://www.whiskylive.com/canada/35/toronto-2011
im going to try and attend, should be interesting.
Kaimu Makes Huge Purchase At Perth Mint
http://is.gd/nM1T2z
photo: http://is.gd/monqVm
------
;>)
Re: (GR) Fitch: A 50% haircut on
My understanding is the Euro banks bought the CDS, American banks sold them. Stiffed again!
Let's Fix the Marketplace
Here's a segment I stumbled upon this morning. Not really a MSNBC or Rachel Maddow follower, but this clip clearly explains the FRAUD on wall street that blew up our economy and our lives. All of this needs to be addressed so that our world can gain back some of the confidence lost in leadership, markets, basic capitalism and social equity for the 99%.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/ns/msnbc_tv-r...
Re: Okay, I'm calling BS
Look, that game has been played for a long time. Fudge the CPI and produce fantom GDP growth.
We all know that the real wages have been dropping since 1970s when USA defaulted on gold. This is a huge ship slowly sinking. It's so slow, most people don't see it while following the celebrities and gladiator (sorry, I meant sport) games.
Only the final stages will be happening fast. I think we still have time for that.
The real reason this unexpected GDP spike is this:
Sudden drop in USA saving rate.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-day-savings-ra...
I bet folks were strapped by fuel prices and stopped saving again. Is this sustainable? Not sure, probably not.
Re: Professor Iron Ore’s lessons on China
Thanks Mark , I got see this article by Googling the headline . it points out how iron ore prices in September dropped from $180 to $120 reflecting present slow down , but mentions how longer term contracts for 2014 have risen 5% . Yes this downturn will turn up at some point in The future !
Re: Okay, I'm calling BS
"So far this year, the average American is spending 12 percent of disposable personal income on energy - gasoline, electricity, and heating. That's more than in 2008, the last time oil spiked."
see the chart courtesy of Chris Martenson
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/great-american-...
Re: Professor Iron Ore’s lessons on China
You're welcome.
Vale had this to say on the Chinese real estate industry:
And this is the link to the story which reported a 20 per cent drop in the price of rebar.
http://on.ft.com/nJBkuK
Greece: Calculations on Greek PSI (Private Sector Involvement)
Danske Research: "Even with a 60% haircut in the PSI and 75% participation, the debt is expected to be around 140% of GDP in 2012."
RESEARCH NOTE:
http://bit.ly/rHpz8D
Mayor Tells EU to Drop Financial Tax
Boris Johnson has stepped up London’s opposition to European Union plans for a tax on financial transactions, urging Brussels to drop the proposal “at the earliest opportunity”.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/23300dbe-00a8-11e1-...
Re: Okay, I'm calling BS
Yes, but here at the Cara Community we know it's all about the value of currency.
They are spending more on those products because it takes more worthless wooden nickels to buy the same amount of goods and services. So it looks like we're back to the past but only when measured in wooden nickels.
How about we measure GDP in gold? What might that look like?
I feel like some guy who's just been fleeced in a back alley shell game and mugged on the way home...by the FREE PRESS/Cheerleaders.
And we wonder why Kaimu invests in web TV?
As they used to say in the old westerns, "Wall Street speaks with forked tongue".
Re: Okay, I'm calling BS
Good find. Actually this chart worries me a lot:
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/infla...
Not sure why this time it will be different.
Credit given where credit due.
A sincere THANK YOU to the contributors of this Community. Bill's steady hand and persistent guidance has greatly helped my daily focus in these times of vast distortion.
I have reached a milestone, of sorts, this morning - a ten fold increase in retirement savings since 2005. This account was down 66% from a peak in 2008.
I greatly appreciate the candid views expressed here. This forum is a treasure and I will never forget Bill's patient efforts in pursuit of Social Equity.
Back to the Dance!
Warm regards,
pulse
Cara 100 Update
DOW - estimates, target cut at Credit Suisse. DOW estimates were cut through 2012. Company is seeing lower demand across the board. Outperform rating and new $40 price target.
POT - estimates, target increased at Goldman. Shares of POT now seen reaching $61. Estimates also increased to reflect an improved nitrogen and phosphate outlook. Buy rating.
XOM - estimates lowered at Credit Suisse through 2014. Company is seeing lower volumes and paying a higher tax rate. Neutral rating and $95 price target.
XOM - ExxonMobil estimates increased at UBS through 2012. 3Q EPS in line. Maintain $90 price target and Buy rating.
------
Michigan Sentiment = 60.9 (up from 59.4)
Re: Greece: Calculations on Greek PSI (Private Sector ...
Great paper, thanks for sharing.
It's clear to me that this was a preliminary plan just to buy some time. The final results could be much different.
BTW, It's not working well, as italian bond spreads are rising quickly and just about to retest the high from August: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR1...
Greek bonds went down some, but not much and going up again or at least stopped falling: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB1YR...
Make sure to click the intraday tab on those charts.
Re: Okay, I'm calling BS
Craig
"How about we measure GDP in gold? What might that look like?"
Here is a link that addresses your question:
http://pricedingold.com/us-gdp/
Long UNG trade
is working today, BTW.
I don't know what"s different. Cold weather?
Re: Greece: Calculations on Greek PSI (Private Sector ...
1st test for #Italy after EU debt deal: sold conventional bonds and paid 6.06% to sell 2022 bonds, breaking 6% on 11yr debt.
http://twitter.com/#!/lindayueh
Fighting greed after beating fear
Gold Stock Technicals Are Ultra Bullish
I am attempting to 'trim' some holdings today, as that has been my habit.
A very interesting setup on this chart. Could be quite a thrust from here, but I am trying to protect October gains, while not wanting to miss the train.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbarrt1028...
Chart from this article;
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt1028...
Hilarious!
By JAMES B. STEWART
Published: October 28, 2011
"It finally dawned on me this week that the value of my retirement account might depend on Silvio Berlusconi."
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/29/business/the-spo...
opening comment
Geoff here wrote:
I believe that the bulls will be out in force now that we have rallied. Picking tops is much tougher than picking bottoms (like we did a few weeks ago) but once market sentiment is overly bullish the market should decline. Simply put, once everyone is on the wagon, the wagon loses a wheel and we want to avoid being with the majority at that time. Btw, that time may be around November 7th, give or take a few days.
Geoff here, why the Nov 7th time frame?
Thank you, Bear E
New Report on UXG
The Bedford Report has issued a new report today on UXG. There is nothing earth shaking here but the report does contain technicals, balance sheets, insider transactions etc.
If you'd like a copy, you can follow the link on this page http://is.gd/gcd5uq
Bedford's website is very slow for me and you need to sign up for a free account. If you have the patience, you'll eventually get to a .pdf file containing the report.
Here we go
(IR) Ireland PM Kenny: Will attempt more options to deal with lowering debt; will ask for more flexibility as Ireland has never requested a debt writedown
How do you spell contagion?
Who could have seen this coming... http://goo.gl/48FXl
Europes Punishment Union
good article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:
"Very quickly, there has been much loose talk about EU fiscal union. What was agreed at 4AM this morning is nothing of the sort. It is a "Stability Union", as Angel Merkel stated in her Bundestag speech. Chalk and cheese. "Deeper economic integration" is for one purpose only, to "police" budgets and punish sinners...
...EMU break-up is Verboten, fiscal union is Verboten, full mobilization of the ECB – either to lift the South off the reefs through reflation, or to back-stop the system as a lender-of-last resort – is Verboten. Germany will have none of it.
Instead we have the summit conclusions – EUCO 116/11 of October 27 2011 – and a great deal of coercion.
Please tell me what exactly has been solved."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-...
PERTH MINT
ALOHA!!
Wow ... That one tonne gold coin is gigantic! If it won't fit in my pocket I don't want it! HA!!
That coin is worth ...
AUD = $57MIL
USD = $61MIL
Which would weigh more the gold coin or the paper dollars? I suppose maybe in $1 or $5 denominations the paper might weigh more!
Interesting as I have been in talks with the Perth Mint to produce a show on gold and the gold market at our studio. Of course here in the USA Peter Schiff's group EuroPacific Capital is the rep for the Perth Mint. Their offices in Newport Beach,CA are not more than a two hours drive away from the studio. It so happens that PIMCO's HQ is in Newport Beach,CA as well!
Maybe I need to go talk to Bill Gross and bring in the biggest public paper dealer into a show with the biggest public physical gold dealer. I know a great spot down on 54th St and Seashore where we could set the show up; right where I used to live back in 1976! It's either that spot or BLACKIE'S BAR! Ah 1976 was the year when the POG started its BIG climb on the first "bubble"!
Wow, brings back some awesome memories from my youth! How many people here now in their 50s would be friends with your 20s self? Seems like another person and a lifetime ago ... Shoulda-woulda-coulda!!!
Come on ... its Friday, its Hawaii and I am feeling nostalgic!!! HA!!!
Euro Area LEI Declines
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the Euro Area declined by 0.7 percent in September to 105.9 (2004 = 100), following a 1.3 percent decrease in August and a 0.1 percent decrease in July.
Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: "The further decline of the Euro Area Leading Economic Index, coupled with widespread weakness among its components has pushed the index into recessionary territory. The deterioration of consumer and business confidence has been much stronger than the decline in real measures. Nonetheless, if the latest policy intentions to contain the debt crisis fail to reassure investors and businesses, it will be much harder to prevent decline in measures such as industrial production and retail trade."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in September. The index stands at 103.7 (2004 = 100) according to preliminary estimates*. The CEI increased 0.2 percent in August and 0.3 percent in July.
http://www.conference-board.org/press/pressdetail....
ditto Mexico
Re: Hilarious!
ALOHA!!
" ... might depend on Silvio Berlusconi."
Very funny!
Better Berlusconi than "The Gorilla" Marcinkus!
Re: PERTH MINT
"How many people here now in their 50s would be friends with your 20s self? Seems like another person and a lifetime ago ... Shoulda-woulda-coulda!!!"
THAT guy was a loser, a flake. He wasted money on partying like he was printing the damned stuff! No way, I don't hang with losers anymore.
I also don't do the shoulda, woulda, coulda game. Although I shoulda!
Hang in there haole!
Euro Tarpo
Okay, I'm coining the phrase Euro Tarpo.
They made up some silly name like EFSF or some other bs nobody can say or remember.
Who, in their right mind, is going to fund this peice of Euro doo doo?
Why not just hold your nose and buy Italian and Greek bonds? Maybe you could get paid in food.
Re: German Constitutional Court Halts Special Euro Panel
tradylady,
Thanks.
I've been wondering what happened to that aspect of this charade.
"Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored." - Aldous Huxley
I get much better news sources here than anywhere else.
Grym
Re: PERTH MINT
kaimu,
If you're not interested in the coin, perhaps we can all chip in and buy it for Bill?
Here's a really neat video from the Perth Mint that chronicles its manufacture:
http://is.gd/CsOhII
WHISTLER PIX
ALOHA!!
In the old days there were "picks"(a wooden handled tool for digging) people used to make money with. Now in PAPER WORLD we use stock "picks"! We used to sweat now we click!
My stock "picks" since the CTA Conference 2011 in Whistler are up over 200% combined! If I take PMV out of the equation then its only a 75%+ combined gain in less than a month!
LINK: http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=PMV.V#symbol=pmv...
Of course some of these I have mentioned here before, but a few have gotten their share prices beaten up, but not so beat up as they were back in Q1/2009!
I did mention two others as a BUY. One was East Coal(ECX:TSXV) and the other was another Aussie Gold that is more speculative, Kalgoorlie Mining(KMC:ASX). This one is highly speculative based on a $35MIL loan and a lot of shares out at this beginning juncture. Not a good way to start off your mine, but should they execute well on production and deliver better exploration values it may be worth a closer look.
FD: I own shares in all 2011 picks except KMC.
Re: PERTH MINT
ALOHA!!
At $57MIL AUD about all I could afford would be the tip of the "roo's tail"! HA!!
Yesterdays Silver in demand
Tremendous 11 and the CC,
Thanks for the great heads up. It took me about an hour to make a purchase.
Today they are sold out. Ebay has a hefty premium already.
Value is where you find it, and I continue to find value in dollars and sense here everyday.
Jimymac
Re: WHISTLER PIX
I noticed you don't show CAP.V (Castle Peak) in your chart although I assume you still hold it. Any insights on this, as volume has completely dried up and share price has languished for some time.
Gold Miner Pulse
Don't know if anyone has previously posted this site, but this is a very useful tabulation and information bank for Canadian gold and silver companies.
http://www.goldminerpulse.com/gold-mining-valuatio...
Re: WHISTLER PIX
ALOHA!!
I do still own CAP.V. The RANDY POWER has worn off and the share price is below the private placement offering of $0.35CAD as those participants sold it off, but since there was not much volume it has really caved in the price, but that works in reverse also. Best to accumulate on the open market in small trades each day.
Randy and Lindsay have been recently buying 500,000 shares of CAP in the open market. Maybe they know something we don't!
LINK: http://canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransaction...
Randy Smallwood bought 300,000 shares @ $0.35, thats $105,000CAD of his own cash on this tiny little junior! Yes, the same Randy that heads SLW(NYSE)! He is a major root(pardon the puns Aussies)of the PEOPLE TREE!
I have a big bet on the Ghana gold plays, not just on PMI GOLD. Aside from PMI GOLD I also have CAP and soon to be Asante Gold IPO. Indirectly if you own Straits Resources-SRQ(ASX) you also own Adamus-ADU(ASX), their horse. Two years ago I talked to David Greenwood of Straits Resources until I was blue in the face to go with PMV instead, but they chose ADU.
LINK: http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=PMV.V#symbol=pmv...
Look what they missed ...
Re: PERTH MINT
I only wish I knew then what I knew now! What a long strange trip it's been. Never say die.
How about that Berlusconi?
(IT) Italy PM Berlusconi: Euro has not convinced anyone; it is a 'strange' currency; vulnerabilities exist in legacy debt
Not that I disagree with him but to hear that from the next focus of problem in EU... up to this moment they at least tried to keep a decorum of unity
Re: PERTH MINT
ALOHA!!
"I only wish I knew then what I knew now!"
Hey, I saw you in the front row of the Cara Community Conference 2009, so I know you knew since April 2009!
The problem is do you execute on what you know?
Re: How about that Berlusconi?
LOL!
If you read or saw the reports yesterday he was more or less humiliated by Sarkozy and Merkel. Interesting times. I know the debtor nations are in trouble but it's probably useful to remember people DO have some pride.
I think this is a deeper problem with all of the wheeling and dealing over the Euro and debt. Remember...Euro Tarpo!
Re: Gold Miner Pulse
Looks great. I'd love to hear from others on how to interpret.
Re: How about that Berlusconi?
Mr Berlusconi is not a master of decorum and tact. Back in July he said some pretty unflattering things about Merkel on a (tapped) phone call with a newspaper editor. "fat" was the most flattering thing he said; I'm guessing if you call a woman fat, she'll pretty much never forget it. While national policy shouldn't be personal, sometimes people make it personal through sheer stupidity.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2037414/Si...
I'd make some pointed comments about who the Italians chose as their leader, if the leaders of the US were any better. I recall GWB trying to give Merkel a shoulder rub at one point, much to her dismay. Mrs Merkel just wants to do her job, and on the one side she's got Bush trying to give her a massage and on the other is Berlusconi telling this editor she's fat - among other things.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTQY1Aw9zcs
Seems like we could do better.
Re: How about that Berlusconi?
It WOULD seem prudent to remember this IS about money and these people represent their citizenry, like it or not. But as you point out, we could do better. MUCH better.
Re: New Report on UXG
any way you could save and post the pdf bull hunter? or is that not allowed for membership content.
Re: New Report on UXG
Sorry Eric,
The save function is grayed out....it's crazy.
Grecian Formula washing over Portugal?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis...
Re: Grecian Formula washing over Portugal?
Wouldn't it be easier just to cut the PIGS loose?
There was actually an economic study published showing GDP and productivity strongly linked to temperature zones. IMHO, south and north don't mix well (sorry, didn't meant to sound racist).
my newest pieces published
hey gang, if you are interested, i had 2 pieces recently published in the november 2011 issue of The Global Commodities Report,
page #30 of the online edition is here:
http://issuu.com/newvanguardmedia/docs/gcr_nov_201...
enjoy.
Re: PERTH MINT
I was referring to the days of my (mis)spent youth...waxing nostalgic with U!. I got my positions from Freeport, no worries. (Attended 2010, not 2009)
Re: How about that Berlusconi?
Reading of this ruckus over Berlusconi's normal and frequently published behaviour, it occurred to me that if anyone would pull the pin on the Euro to reinvent themselves, it would be this guy. He's been fired by the voters many times and he just keeps coming back.
If anyone would resurrect nationalist monetary policy to spite France and Germany I could imagine it would be him. And given Sarko and Merkel's childish smirk at the podium, I'd understand where he's coming from. How much does Italy owe France again?
Fascinating to live through such times.
See Kaimu's Sound Money
Above.
Re: How about that Berlusconi?
Certainly makes one remember his recent "banking problem is a French and Germany issue"
Quiet day today
I miss the everyday is over 1% day action already.
XLY and EEM managed to lose some though. I used to consider them leading.
Re: PERTH MINT
ALOHA!!
Ah yes ... that was MOJO in the front row in 2009! That's a name I have not seen here in a long time!
Re: Credit given where credit due.
Pulse wrote: "This forum is a treasure and I will never forget Bill's patient efforts in pursuit of Social Equity."
I have been given the admirable task of collecting all the positive and complimentary blog postings like the one above; thanks pulse much appreciated the first one was easy! Unfortunately the search function is not an easy function to use effectively right now, so I need everyone's help to find them.
If anyone has saved their own or anybody else's comments over the years please let me know by sending me a message. I need the date and time of the specific comment as well. I will personally begin to read from the beginning of the archives on this blog 2008 and move forward from there.
In addition if anyone has saved any of Bill's numerous "proof of concept" items you can forward those to me as well.
This collation is part of the marketing strategy for the next phase of development of Bill Cara and CaraCommunity's enhanced web presence including the IPTV format. It's all very exciting and we need this timeline for the benefit of the new readers to be able to view a list of the successes of CaraCommunity in a snapshot over the last 7 years.
If anyone has free time to devote to this project please don't hesitate to contact me and I will assign to you a timeframe to read over and extract the necessary info.
Athan
Market Week Wrap-up
http://goo.gl/IhSSd
early skin cancer detection
http://www.verisante.com/
out of the realm of mines and mining.
A breakthrough in early detection from the University of British Columbia. If these units were invented in the USA we would be in the teens and not trading at 77 cents.
Re: Grecian Formula washing over Portugal?
The new chorus sung in acapella in Spanish, Portugese, Gaelic and Italian by the other desparate cognaceti castrati;
"Can we's has a bailout also???"
The Frog/Kraut bailout is short by a least half.
This ain't over by a longshot. Details at 10 o'clock someday.
BOGO Special Kaimu?
Kaimu or anyone else in the know, is it too late to invest in Benton Resource Corp (BTC.V)? Or is this spinoff they are proposing an early Christmas present for those two-for-the-price-of-one shoppers like me? you know, a buy one get one free deal (BOGO)? Shareholder meeting coming up Nov 3.
Re: early skin cancer detection
ALOHA!!
Tell us about these units. Do you have personal experience with these products and this technology?
"If these units were invented in the USA we would be in the teens and not trading at 77 cents."
Perhaps, but revenues would help out the share price no matter where the units were invented. No revenues for period ending March 31, 2011 and total annual revenues for 2010 was only $11,400CAD. Whose is buying these units?
Sometimes it is hard for me to adjust looking at financials where this statement is missing ...
"ROUNDED TO MILLIONS"
Here at the nursery we made more than $11,400CAD last year maybe we should go public! In fact we outperformed most listed junior explorers globally in revenues! Maybe I should get some gold spray paint and spray all the orchids and sell them to JP Morgan at spot to use to cover their COMEX warehouse inventory! They never said the gold had to be in bars! Taking delivery of gold orchids no force majeure there! Heck, I could paint chairs and bricks with gold spray paint too! Paper is not gold either, but somehow they think it is.
A lot of monetary value and market value is based on legislation. Would a USD be worth anything if we were not legally bound to accept it as money? Who here would "volunteer" to pay taxes if you were not threatened with jail time or onerous usury fines and penalties. So the KING is not dead contrary to popular opinion.
Re: BOGO Special Kaimu?
ALOHA!!
Read this ...
LINK: http://www.bentonresources.ca/article/spinout-upda...
Kaimu's Sound Money & My Year In Review.
Great stuff Stephen; you seem to weave arcane things together that make for very interesting reading – and somewhat disturbing at times, like the case of Marcinkus.
(I hear US Corporations are moving back to the USA, yet it takes CEMEX from Mexico to build a new Economics lecture hall at Stanford. Where are all those “well-to-do” Silicone Valley execs he speaks of when it comes to university infrastructure?)
I have given the movement of manufacturing much thought after flushing most of what I’ve ever read down the preverbal cranial sewer, and trying to figure out from what I know that interest me how I could rationalize what’s happened to the manufacturing base in America… I start with trying to compare apples to apples. China has a population of 1.35 billion, America 313 million http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population . China (electricity) produces 3042BKW/YR/2007, America 4900BKW/YR/2006, that’s 15655kwh per each American, 2253kwh per china-person 50% of which is for US product production. So the bottom line – each china-person equivalent of 14.4%/2 electrical production compared to each American. Accumulative electrical data is located on xls spreadsheets http://www.eia.gov/emeu/international/electricityg... from the EIA site. I could do the same comps for each country – the point is ‘we’ have far to fall – something I really hate to consider but if we lost our elect grid or difficult to come by components like transformers which GE has kindly sent our ability to produce overseas with typical 3 year waiting list… Most of us would wind up like those homeless people overnight, with nothing to eat in about 3 to 7 days… We’ve done it to ourselves, our rare earth element mining is basically gone, our strategic interest seems to have been undermined! We are divided, which prevents us from taking over the globe – but we have demographic movements, concentrating up like minds in places which is dangerous, where extremism trumps diversity – where NYC and Pasadena Texas may as well be on different planets; it may not be a problem now but it will be! The SPX companies had to become global (you’re either growing or dying), to do so they had to sacrifice Americans to their alter of ‘growth & power’ – they all knew damn well it would destroy the middle class in this country. Can anyone seriously believe anyone in government cared or understood what was going on? Our manufacturing base was moved, it cut American workers out (moving from north to south in the 70’s was not enough), creating ‘resource diversity’, you don’t want all your manufacturing in spot X where one natural or unnatural disaster could wipe you out, along with many other reasons (fill in the blank – is what it is). The other side of the coin of this manufacturing movement should have spread the wealth around to other countries, and it has – funny how none of the OWS people seem to grasp this but then again I don’t expect them to, and maybe no one does, or maybe I just don’t know anyone that does… Maybe spreading Americans wealth, mental capacity and ability around to the rest of the world is simply NOT ENOUGH, or fast enough for the (fill in the blank). Maybe giving away the middle class is NOT ENOUGH. Maybe purchasing Arab oil and bringing ‘trade’ to those nations is NOT ENOUGH. Maybe wall street is evil and must be brought under control. Maybe there is a global cabal pulling all the strings. 'It's them bankers. Maybe ‘America’ is evil. Maybe ‘Republicans’ are evil. Maybe globalization is necessary and painful for some moving out of the manufacturing era. Maybe greed is good. Maybe we need to throw out the baby, bathwater, mother and father… Maybe this is all natural and maybe we’re trying to tame Mother Nature with concepts as social equity. Maybe we should turn our children over to a system that believes it knows everything but could possibly be far more ignoble then, wait – that’s assuming I know what ignoble means. Maybe life is not fair. Maybe we need to overcome Cecil Rhodes copycat attempt error the MBA. Where did that get us? Maybe I don’t get the big picture and maybe I don’t care, and I damn sure won’t believe anyone else has it all together, re; cranial dump down the medulla sphincter - and it won’t change my opinion anyway. With that I’ll pull investing into this – I’ve been reading the WIR for a little over a year, some of the detail but mostly for message & tone. Comparing the message & tone with what happens in the market sure gives me confidence the WIR has a damn good grasp on the ‘market big picture’. I recall once in 1982 my shift met our plant manager in the parking lot coming off nights and complained about our supervisor – he listened and when everyone was done Ben said, this man is proven to me – none of you are. I couldn’t pick a good stock if my life depended on it, especially with the market flux going on, and I don’t have time learn it in detail like many here have – but the WIR is as close to ‘proven’ as I’ve found, making market calls and good at it IMHO. It’s taken me a year to get it through my head that I’d be far ahead if I’d stick with Bills message rather sampling this and that and here and there. Thanks to Bill.
To OWS – the GD house is stacked against you (house=nature not wall street) and from what I see you’re not increasing your odds – I’d stick to noble ideals to start with. And gooooooood luck.
regards,
Earl
Shelf space
Here is a new twist in India. They have launched the first machine that dispenses gold and silver coins and diamond-studded jewellery. I suppose it is like Amazon.com at the mall. You trust the vendor and have delivery on the spot. No people all day as clerks or problems with shrinkage.
The company said in a statement that the machine was "ideally suited for last minute purchases on auspicious occasions and for gifting".
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.ea940f...
The more places that stock your product the better. I hope they install a million.
Re: Kaimu's Sound Money & My Year In Review.
ALOHA!!
Yeah, isn't Marcinkus unreal? Who would have thought the Vatican Bank was that bad ass?
It is an arcane World we live in PERIOD! There is a lot of obscurity and there is a lot that none of us KNOW! I alluded to the "experts" who know exactly what happens when we die and how Heaven operates! When we were born there were "no guarantees" that the World would be fair and honest. I never got a guarantee.
Maybe we should begin with POWER ABHORS A VACUUM! Most of what I write about has more to do with government intervening in every aspect of our lives. Mostly when it comes to money, but then we get these semi-rare instances where a sitting American President decides that he and Congress need to do something about this disparity in home OWNERSHIP! He then breaks it down into some sort of racial divide between Anglos and Minorities. Well in some parts of America Anglos are the Minority! So how does that work Dubya? His whole OWNERSHIP speech wreaks of bank fraud from day one. The beneficiaries were always the banks! If its DEBT the banks always win, even when they don't! HA!!
Can't we all agree by now that after 100 years of political and monetary monopolies that this whole system is not working for the masses? Isn't it time we let government go and let those who know how to create jobs do their thing?
We were all raised in government sponsored schools that tended to guide you into the belief that government is good and that we need government to guarantee our lifestyle. That was propaganda.
In Japan and Germany corporations tend to fund schools. After all if the goal of education is to get a job then who better to do that than the entities in the private sector that provide most of the jobs globally. If Bill Gates can't find enough American kids with degrees in software engineering then maybe he should step up to the plate and start his own Microsoft University like Starbucks has its own Barista University! But don't just start at the college level Bill, start at first grade. Is it any wonder we grow up with this distrust and hate of capitalism as a product of a government financed education? Yet none of us have ever lived in a true capitalist system where free markets determine who sinks and who swims, not government. In the old days if you sunk then you went back to your family and community to help you out. Today you go down to any number of government agencies and get in line with the other sinkers! You can get food money, rent money, medicine money and everything you need to get bailed out, to help you tread water. No doubt it is not a feel good way to live. Most people want to be productive members of society and provide for themselves and their family. Yet government is there to give you the fish,not to teach you how to fish. To me that is a massive disservice to America's future independence.
The zenith year for US manufacturing was 1980. It has been downhill ever since. It was the US Congress that killed off the US domestic oil production in the Carter years when the WINDFALL PROFIT TAX was instigated. How did US oil companies react? First they capped their domestic wells and then they moved their production out of America and shipped oil into America from Saudi Arabia. It was cheaper to buy the oil and ship it 10,000 miles than it was to pay the WINDFALL PROFIT TAX. Never forget that the US government has a knack for killing off US manufacturing and US jobs. Maybe some of those returning US manufacturers will suddenly remember why they left in a year or two! I only say that because the NFIB SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX is at dangerous lows. A lot of big business depends on small business for subcontracts and various other services. Just like large mining companies depend on smaller more efficient junior explorers to find their next reserves.
It was the US Congress who got the SUBPRIME going and created a lot of construction jobs and mortgage jobs based on debt. Now the US government owns the mortgage industry and the construction industry is on the ropes. Did you read Larry Summers quote about rented cars that I put at the end of the SOUND MONEY report? Well Larry, nobody ever washed a car without an engine either!
SLUM STARS
ALOHA!!
“Filipinos want beauty. I have to look beautiful so that the poor Filipinos will have a star to look at from their slums.” - Imelda Marcos
How many US Senators and bank CEOs say the same thing?
Re: Kaimu's Sound Money & My Year In Review.
Kaimu - "It was the US Congress that killed off the US domestic oil production in the Carter years when the WINDFALL PROFIT TAX was instigated"
Perhaps it was geology, and not the US Congress that did in domestic onshore oil production. Its possible the tax accelerated the decline, but domestic onshore was doomed by peaking production in 1972 driven by a peak in discoveries back in the 1930s. It is tempting to blame politicians for everything, but in this case, I think the blame lies with geology instead.
As "proof" I use the marketplace, in that companies will do what is profitable for them to do. The windfall profits tax was repealed in 1988. If the oil resource was still there, and domestic E&P was primarily deterred by this tax, the oil companies have had 23 years to exploit this untapped resource. Has that happened? The only expansion of production even with our insanely high oil price (9x what it was back in 1998) is in the Bakken, which requires perhaps $75 oil to be economical. And that has only been true over the past 4 years.
My sense tax policy has had a marginal impact, but the big impact was geology. There just aren't any more giant or supergiant oil fields in the American lower 48 to be exploited.
Re: Kaimu's Sound Money & My Year In Review.
ALOHA!!
"Perhaps it was geology, and not the US Congress that did in domestic onshore oil production."
Here are the findings of the CRS Report which according to the report lost domestic production ranged between 3.2% of total imports to 12.7% of imports. That was a lot of production that went to Saudi Arabia and fueled more jobs there and less jobs in America in the early 1980s. The tax was finally repealed in 1988 only because oil prices dropped so low the tax was not generating any revenues.
• Congress was also concerned that the tax had increased the nation's dependence on imported oil. The tax was an excise tax on oil produced domestically in the United States; it was not imposed on imported oil. Domestic oil producers could not shift the tax forward as a higher oil selling price because the purchaser would merely substitute imported or tax-exempt crude. The tax caused domestic oil production losses in every year until 1986, when crude prices declined below adjusted base prices resulting in zero windfall profit tax. Over the 1980-1986 period, it is estimated that, depending on the assumed supply curve price elasticity, the tax reduced domestic oil production from between 320 million barrels (1.2% of domestic production) and 1,268 million barrels (4.8% of domestic production). The effect of reducing domestic oil production was to increase the level of imported oil. The estimated production losses caused by the tax, as a % of the actual level of imported oil, under three assumed supply curve elasticities range from 3.2% of total imports to 12.7% of imports for this period, depending on price elasticity.
Then again there was the separate issue of domestic gas production, which was also part of the tax. This is from a CBO analysis, entitled REVENUE EFFECTS OF THE CRUDE OIL WINDFALL PROFIT TAX ACT, dated 1983:
Further a tax on old gas would encourage producers to "shut-in"-stop production- on their old gas wells and try to qualify for higher priced incentive categories under the Natural Gas Policy Act.
Oh surprise-surprise, who would think that just because Congress called it the "CRUDE OIL WINDFALL PROFIT TAX ACT" that it was just for "crude oil"? How does the "geology" argument work for domestic natural gas production?
I mean do you see the the effects all these acts have? What you do not see is the internal administrative burden as well. Both the IRS and the oil companies complained about how much of a burden the tax was on "compliance" issues. These taxes were a boom to paper shuffler jobs that did not produce one extra gallon of crude oil. Do you think government largess could possibly have similar effects in other industries other than the oil and gas sector? For instance here at our tiny little nursery due to healthcare legislation in the State of Hawaii I hire people for 16 hour weeks because I do not want to be forced to pay for half their healthcare costs. We are not a huge operation and with the downturn in the economy why would I want to take on extra costs and reporting duties if sales are down? The end result is we have part-time workers who now must go find other part-time jobs to fill in the rest of the week instead of working a full week in one location. A marvel of efficiency for small business in a glut of government regulations.
I am not really commenting on the "geology" but the effects of government largess on the private sector. And how does "onshore" have anything to do with a tax on all domestic production of oil and gas? Back in 1980 a 12.7% estimate of domestic oil production losses was a lot, not only in terms of actual oil but lost jobs. Can you tell me what percent of domestic oil production was lost after 1988 due to "geology"? In 1988 when the tax was repealed I would think that the price of oil had more determination on domestic production than geology. As an oil company you would have to weigh up the cost of production in the USA versus the cost in say Venezuela or Russia or Indonesia, especially with lower crude prices squeezing you profit margins. All the labor costs and the various costs to comply with government regulations out of the EPA, OSHA, etc would be a major factor in your decision of where to drill on planet Earth.
We can all sit back and be very smug about how our huge government legislates who gets to profit and who does not, but in the end HUMAN ACTION wins, because oil companies will be around so long as there is a profit to be made. Once that profit is gone so is the oil company and government has yet to figure out a way to make companies more profitable, but they sure are experts at making them less profitable. I can say for a fact that the less profit a company has the fewer jobs are created. As much as modern politicians hate to admit it they are still a slave to market conditions. I think they are now all wishing they had 1000 times more profitable companies to tax. I think they would if they would only get out of the way and let the private sector be private and let free markets be free for once.
THE STREAM.TV
ALOHA!!
The upcoming BLOGWORLD Conference in Los Angeles,CA on November 3rd to the 5th. This is the video that Brian Gramo shot for his presentation as a speaker at the conference. This is the Zylogic Media I invested in with the two channels STREAM.TV and EMPOWERME.TV.
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fE5pcqJBNIE&feature...
Some of the entities we have coming into the studio recently for various agendas are:
- Total Public Relations
- ABC TV
- MTV
- Wells Fargo Bank
- National Bank
- Dunn & Bradstreet
- WebMD
- NBA
Just remember those little illiquid junior exploration companies I post about that I bought in private placements and the open market utilizing the long abandoned buy and hold strategy bought me 18% of the studio.
You can see some of our Hawaii orchids in the wall sconce by the door as he walks to the control room.
Re: early skin cancer detection
I made a that fecetious comment .77$, ie: a particular cognitive experience to provide laughter and amusement: to provide humour Cultural, geographical differences not taken into account.
Mela is a competitor in the US with the same fundamentals. Also an upstart. Whoever said that the markets were a place of price discovery.
The website was provided as a process of discovery and hopefully a shared responsibility. If my friend had this early detection technology today, he would still be alive. Have a good day.
MoKat, From your post
MoKat,
From your post #98709:
"CNBC showed a factory in Chicago that returned to the US from China. Yesterday they showed an Alcoa plant in Michigan. Rah Rah ! Go USA ! When you see the inside of today's factories, you realize how much automation has destroyed the US middle class. The machines have definitely taken over. Capex means most investment goes to purchase new and more productive technology and only yields a few new jobs. Or creates low paying jobs. Until the personal incomes of US workers goes up significantly, our predicament won't change. And the debt goes on and on and on."
I came across a similar story in The Telegraph, "Made in America, Again".
http://tiny.cc/8qx0j
"Made in America, Again" - a report this month by Boston Consulting Group - said Chinese wage inflation running at 16pc a year for a decade has closed much of the cost gap. China is no longer the "default location" for cheap plants supplying the US."
I believe global labor is in the process of reaching a common denominator.
Since most of my clients were in manufacturing I saw the progression of manufacturing automation combine with the computerization of other jobs as a catastrophe in the making for at least two decades.
The US population has more than doubled in my lifetime.
Is there any reason why the same effect will not occur in the emerging market countries? Too many people, too few workers needed, must lead to trouble. "Idle hands are the devil's workshop."
I can see no way for the personal income of people in general to go up anywhere in the longer term. Therefore my long term outlook is for deflation, increasingly imbalanced wealth and incomes. Our manufacturing jobs here are now paying much less than 20 years ago (not inflation adjusted). Benefits are far fewer. Some people getting the 99 weeks unemployment have shunned these jobs.
The present global economic policies are on a collision course with demographics and politicians continue to deal with symptoms without regard to the basic condition.
For investment I would expect those items we must have to rise in price, simply because they can, and except for the high-end discretionary items prices will stagnate. Those with good income will be in great shape. Unless they get mobbed by the 99ers.
More disturbing is a look at what happened in the 1930s. Japan and Germany faced overpopulation, a lack of jobs, a shortage of commodities and went to military solutions. I believe we are already at Depression conditions which the entrenched government programs and recent stimulus attempts are hiding.
Yes, the debt will go on, but may simply be a precursor to the more dangerous problem.
Grym
Re: Kaimu's Sound Money & My Year In Review.
Kaimu -
In looking at the charts of production during the period, I see no impact from initiation of the WPT in 1980 through the elimination of WPT in 1988.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?...
US domestic production was declining for 7 years prior to the introduction of the WPT. Prudhoe Bay ramped up, US production surged, the tax was put in place, Prudhoe Bay peaked, and then started to decline. It appears that whatever the impact of WPT was, Prudhoe Bay's production curve completely trumped it. And ARCO didn't shut the field in out of disgust, they kept pumping regardless.
In my opinion, large oil finds (or the lack thereof) trumps taxes. Prudhoe Bay's impact on US production - first during ramp-up, and then on the decline - is a prime example of this.
Inflationary pressures / Miners and Political Landscape.
I have learned a great deal here the past 3 years and have begun to implement the teaching and guidance provided by Bill and this community. It has been a perspective and thinking change that has grown in it's fluidity. Of late, it seems the community has improved a notch as different members step up and contribute. It appears these efforts will continue to grow in strength. What seems to be solidifying in my thinking is the reality of the debt problems facing Government's in it's various forms. It appears that the "Markets" are looking for guarantee's on these debt's. It would appear that over the next few (or several) years, every time we have a focused effort on "resolving a problem in the news", be it the PIGS, or the US debt issues yet to be brought into clear "crisis type" focus, we will have much of the same "market hystrionics." During these times certain assets will be "on the cheap" as the fear cycle run's it's course. The only resolution that Central Bankers seem to offer is currency manipulation and monetization of debt. Inflationary actions in my mind. So, as these cycles play out, we will see PM prices fluctuate up and down greatly at times as the world comes to grip with these policies and actions and the value of currencies. It appears the upward channel of Gold's price remains intact and with every effort by Central Bankers to monetize, the price should have periods of great gains.
Miners. I don't understand these very well. Possibly, I need a broker with access to TSX and others to go forward with minor's. Suggestions please? But my fundamental understanding of how the majors and minors interact and trend through these cycles and how they are valued by analysts is not very keen. I have not looked at Bill's resources closely that he offers on this subject. It looks like the analysts will with hold upgrades till "someone else" goes first. Then again, maybe an analyst really is an "expert" and it's just not time yet. :-0 I hold, SLW, SVM, NGD, GG, NEM, UXG FCX in my IRA. 25% total weight.
Political Landscape. Wages and Jobs will be a problem for a long time. Also, growing public discontent with politicians refusal to "represent" the interests of the people is growing. How this plays out over the next several years looks like it will have it's own periods of "increased volatility." I'd like to see the current bozo's in DC replaced by a person, with an average age of 70, with a BMI of under 30, and the ability to pass a standardized fitness test for starters. :-)
Re: Kaimu's Sound Money & My Year In Review.
Hi Kaimu
You wrote (Then again there was the separate issue of domestic gas production, which was also part of the tax. This is from a CBO analysis, entitled REVENUE EFFECTS OF THE CRUDE OIL WINDFALL PROFIT TAX ACT, dated 1983)
I’ve no clue what was behind the move to create this tax, it’s more ‘the minutia’ and ‘unscripted’ then why the earth is round for me – for all anyone knows it could have been a move to encourage XOM and other American corporations to develop oil fields and trade in the middle east rather than giving advantage to BP or TOT. Maybe someone realized it’s better to develop a relationship in the Middle East, based on commerce & trade rather than the traditional imperial route hitherto taken by occidental countries of the past. When my dad was at air war collage he said there were many there from other nations – why would we have other nations officers at our US Air War Collage? Because the Imperial USA wanted to take over the globe rhetorically speaking? I know you don’t see this country as such. I enjoy your writing and I’ve gained so much more knowledge of our financial system from reading you 1 year then all my 52 other years combined. I believe I know more than I ever wanted to. Maybe the bankers do profit in every case, and what if one man really does believe he’s doing God’s Work, what if these profits can actually do good? And is it bad I pay 29% on a credit card with the opportunity to look for work rather then submit to the whim of some local shaka zulu? I don’t believe any of us want to see what happens when the flow of money really does come to a dead stop. Other people’s money (OPM), Moral Hazard, Social Equity and so many other concepts I have come to understand are part of today’s conversations that seems to see America as a cause of global disparity when I believe we’ve done more to enhance the human condition then harm it – BY FAR, but for so many it's NOT ENOUGH! There was a youtube video I can’t find it now but it showed how over the hundreds of years the human global condition has improved exponentially over the past few decades and I believe America played a pivotal role in this. Anyway, that’s pretty much all I have to add and appreciate the opportunity to have this discussion – I agree with most everything you write about and am looking forward to the empower project.
best regards,
Earl
Corporate Education
kaimu -
"In Japan and Germany corporations tend to fund schools. After all if the goal of education is to get a job then who better to do that than the entities in the private sector that provide most of the jobs globally. If Bill Gates can't find enough American kids with degrees in software engineering then maybe he should step up to the plate and start his own Microsoft University like Starbucks has its own Barista University! But don't just start at the college level Bill, start at first grade."
Hamburger University stops at the managerial level because a minimum wage part time high school kid can learn to assemble a Big Mac with maybe a weeks worth of training and behavioral conditioning (See Clockwork Orange: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bgEHAKcG9k&feature...) and goose the latests jobs numbers before election season. Oh, man, I'm getting jaded.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamburger_University
Petaquilla Minerals
I have noticed that the Cara Community has yet to mention any thought on Petaquilla Minerals. I have recently found out about this company, and through my research (one part being which referring to this website) I found it has been left out in discussions.
Petaquilla minerals is a mining company of gold, silver and copper. At the moment, their greatest project is a surface gold-processing plant at its 100% owned Molejon Gold Project. Commercial production began on January 8, 2010.
Any thoughts?
Re: THE STREAM.TV
Congrats Kaimu, looks like another wise investment!
Best of luck.. but somehow I don't think you need it.
Always a pleasure to read your news.
Cheers Athan
Re: Petaquilla Minerals
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/...
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/petaquilla...
Looks interesting. Not well promoted though.
So tell us why you like it SyncMaster152T.
Re: Petaquilla Minerals
Hi Bill,
Glad to hear from you. I just registered on the community, however I have followed your site and invested in the market for a while, so I am no novice.
I first heard about this company last week, a few days before the commotion regarding the resolution in Europe. You are correct, it has not been well promoted, however here is some information that i have collected in my research that may be of interest:
Petaquilla minerals first began in 1997, and in 2005 it split into two companies; Petaquilla gold and Petaquilla copper. Petaquilla copper was sold to Inmet Mining Corp. for a total of $380 M. This gave Petaquilla some cash flow to expand their gold mining and gold processing. They currently have two mines, one in Panama and one in Spain (I believe Spain is fairly stable as compared to a place like Argentina) . They are still a junior gold producer, however they have three ball mills, allowing them to process 2,200 tonnes per day. They plan to add a third ball mill and increase production to 5,00 tonnes per day (Im a bit skeptical about that, however thoughts for expansion is key for junior gold companies.)
http://www.petaquilla.com/news/pdf/corp_pre_2011-l...
I took a look at their financial statements, and since this company is fairly new in the gold production game, i glanced at their liabilities and net losses. I found that both have been decreasing substantially--net loss decreased approx. 87% from 2010 to 2011. I'm happy to see they are paying off debts and soon about to see some profits if things go well. Cash flows and assets including equipment have also steadily increased.
http://www.stockhouse.com/financialtools/sn_financ...
Keep in mind, this is a junior exploration and gold processing company, so there's a risk of failure. However this has caught my eye as a favourable prospect to perhaps invest.
http://www.americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?Company...
Re: Credit given where credit due.
Here's a blast from the past. I am doing my own post trade analysis in responding to Bill's questioning of people who were selling this week. I too would have been selling had I been monitoring 10 & 60 mins charts as normal.
However, having taken a break and locking in on a higher time frame in order to remove myself from the incessant need to watch the screen I find myself surprised to see selling. Not because I wouldn't have myself (I would), but because I see a much simplified approach to buying and selling. Something I'll post tomorrow.
As I look back at the SLW rally in February, I noted a link to Bill's commentary in a 2006 WSJ calling for more regulation in contrast to another author calling for less. I guess that's the difference between being a financial services insider and a journalist:
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB11491929943...
and then Businessweek takes a shot at him:
http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty...
Re: Credit given where credit due.
Once again Bill is very articulate and uncanny in his accuracy. The world needs more men and women like him to speak up and be heard...Thank you Bill.
Re: Credit given where credit due.
Thanks for the link Les! Brilliant. Thanks dberryclan for your comments. Reading over all the posts from the end of 2008 is an eye opener.
Cheers
Athan
Re: Kaimu's Sound Money & My Year In Review.
Hi Kaimu - I forgot to answer that question about reading Larry’s comment; (“In the history of the world, no one has ever washed a rented car.” - Lawrence Summers, Director of White House National Economic Council under Obama).
I sure did and when I read this I thought the same thing I thought years ago when bush said he wanted many more people to own a home in the US - skin in the game. I sold a home once owner finance because I’d been burned by renters too many times – it’s similar to renting but they put money up for the home. I had no clue they were doing no doc loans in this country until half of my 401k evaporated like it did in 2001. I used to be bitter about this but then I realized compared to the rest of the world I'm a 1%er.
Earl
No fraud big or small can escape the SEC............
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7386340n&ta...
Re: Kaimu's Sound Money & My Year In Review.
Earl,
I suppose I'm just the latest to prove Larry Summers had a warped view of the public which helped to shape warped policy. Last spring I took a rented spanking new Maxima on a 13 day tour involving backroads in New Hampshire Maine and New Brunswick. There was no way I was going to return it covered in mud, so it went to the carwash before returning it. People like Larry Summers will only look at the written contract and seek ways to gain the edge through deception. I consider myself among many of the 99% who look at the overriding social contract that says I can feel good about returning something borrowed in the same condition it was presented to me. There are many, many homeowners who are underwater on the mortgage but will not consider walking on the deal just because it is working against them at the present time. They are likely to be most favorable to the OWS movement. Let HB&B beat themselves up over deceitful dealings among themselves, but when you bring J6P into the room everything changes. The public has had a belly full of financial shenanigans and now that the public is being presented with the bill via Federal politics we should expect nothing short a huge push back of revolutionary proportions.
Re: Kaimu's Sound Money & My Year In Review.
Larry Summers is a priggish dolt who is obviously too corpulant to bend over to wash his rented hubcaps. I'll bet money that he has someone that will wash his leased Mercedes.
Why we even consider the opinions of akka-dementians is in itself a question. If ignorant people can command a forum, it only means that we are exposed to an ignorant forum. "That's all the news that fit my views." or some such..
The 99 percenters are better off than you might think. The underground cash economy shuffles 100's of $Billions into the pocketbooks of millions of off the book dole takers... You can slice and dice income 'inequality' with spurious government stastics BUT unless you live in the real world you will continue to be held hostage to the 'official statistics.' If you want a $10 an hour plumber, call. Need a $4 an hour babysitter? Call.
Not many families can live on $1,200 bucks a month but statistically millions do. What a hoot!!!!!!!!!!! They don't.
There are lies, damned lies and statistics.
Bill said
"Yesterday, I noted a group of skeptics here talking up a sell-off in the morning, and I looked at probably 50 charts to try to figure out what they were talking about. I didn't see any sell-off. All I saw was capital flowing into equities, everywhere."
There was certainly no reason to think selling as SLW has a beautiful uptrend support line it is respecting - clearly visible in the hourly charts. Such short-term fixations rhymes with something Bill suggested to me the last time risk was on for the summer rally:
"If you have an investment perspective that dictates you ought to buy, and hold if necessary, then I say do it. Traders who today are sticking with technical tools that work in a conventional free market are out to lunch if they think these tools work under conditions with so much intervention going on. This is the reason behind my saying, at times, "Do you feel lucky?"
http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-blog-j...
This latter remark from Bill is pertinent because I had previously bought SLW in the hourly time frame following the call for a summer rally Bill was making at the time - that was an excellent call. Buying on the 17th of June, I was already selling on the 20th. A pullback there was, but look how much higher SLW went.
What I've noted trading seriously - albeit undercapitalised - for the first year in 2011 is that there were only 3 major "risk on" buy calls I noted. The first one beginning February, concerning particularly the precious metal miners:
http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-blog-f...
The 2nd call from Bill was for a summer rally:
http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-blog-j...
The 3rd one most recently as was noted.
I've got numerous 10 & 60 min charts posted, that I used to make buy and sell decisions - too frequently and not capturing the full extent of the move.
I also didn't appreciate when it was "risk off" time, particularly in March, and gave a lot of profits back early in the year. I got slaughtered by SLV buying in a short-term time frame as the worst volatility since 1987 struck silver.
Having pulled back from the market a moment and pulling out the time frame with which I view it has simplified the approach to the three major risk on calls I can remember Bill calling this year (does anyone remember any others?)
see the 4 day chart of SLW, my preferred swing trade in 2011. The time frame captures almost perfectly the calls made by Bill in Feb, Jun & Oct. The 4 hour chart remains my lower time frame for precise entry.
Risk off can come from a simple stochastics crossover.
Not exactly buy and hold, but not getting buffeted by the hour to hour buffoonery of the idiots shaking out investors pockets. I can't predict if this is what the market has in store for us in future years, but such range
bound trading in such a time frame would work for me with a lot less stress.
One can see from SLW in the 4 hour time frame that there is no selling at this point. It's been risk on for the last two weeks and the 4 day stochastics is just beginning to turn up now.
Something to reflect on.
Mauldin on Europe
...if you are a market participant thinking of investing in sovereign debt, and not a total rookie, when was the last time you saw a sovereign country write down less than 20% of its debt? (Greece is starting with 50%. On its way to what I suspect will be something far closer to 90%.)
Keep searching. If a sovereign debt goes south, it's for a whole lot more than 20%. It seems to me that whatever the EFSF guarantees is almost certain to turn into a loss. What self-respecting country would write off less, if the hit is taken by entities that have no votes in the national parliament? 20% becomes the starting point, and then the fun begins. There will be lots of screaming and shouting and gnashing of teeth when those losses come home.
Merkel and Co. are selling the whole proposition on the premise that the problem is simply one of confidence, and that if the EFSF restores confidence in the various nefarious government debt schemes, then all is saved. Well, except for Greece. Which has already been flushed.
The problem is that it is not a lack of confidence, nor even a lack of hubris. It is a lack of solvency. The simple arithmetic says there is too much debt in Greece and Ireland and Portugal and Spain and Italy. And ultimately France, though Merkel is too polite to say so and knows that she needs their signature, at least for now. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, no one is paying attention to poor Portugal.
http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/uploads/pdf/mwo1...
Interesting question posed by Mauldin. By forcing banks to take a 50% haircut in Greece, did European sovereignty's just make life harder for themselves?(i.e., as we see in Italy as borrowing costs soar). Who would be insane enough to buy sovereign debt now? And by not triggering a credit default event because it was 'voluntary' and excluding the clauses that would permit banks to cash in their credit default swaps, did the market in CDS' just change in ways we cannot yet fathom? Will banks, who have a fiduciary duty to investors, accept the EU's order or will they wait for those CDS' to trigger in order to protect against losses?
Jeeez what a mess...
Re: Kaimu's Sound Money & My Year In Review.
TerryC,
"There are many, many homeowners who are underwater on the mortgage but will not consider walking on the deal just because it is working against them at the present time. They are likely to be most favorable to the OWS movement. Let HB&B beat themselves up over deceitful dealings among themselves, but when you bring J6P into the room everything changes. The public has had a belly full of financial shenanigans and now that the public is being presented with the bill via Federal politics we should expect nothing short a huge push back of revolutionary proportions."
I think you are right on with this assessment. I, personally, know only one person who has walked away. She was stretched beyond what was reasonable when she bought (at the high), had some bad luck with major needed repairs, then lost her job.
The first move was to bring her son back from college and put the house on the market. It didn't sell. Next came some storm damage which couldn't wait. With both working at... 1. A commission only job and 2. Working part time only jobs — they left town to move back with her family (I think, due to location).
Now the house which is two doors away from us has been vacant for about three months. After several calls to the real estate agent the front yard has been mowed, but the back looks like Halloween.
She is a 24-year US Army vet, single mom and no way she could keep up payments. My guess is if she had been here when OWS began she would have been in tune with their message.
Grym
Les, Czech this out...
Czech PM Considers Referendum to Halt Joining EU
The Czech Republic is having second thoughts about joining the EU, and rightfully so. The EU Observer reports Czech PM mulls euro referendum
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
--------
Assume the intended's debts? No, just leave them at the alter. A lot less messy than a divorce.
Grym
Treaty of Debt
Treaty of Debt - An Eye Opening Video on the ESM Bailout Mechanism
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
---------------
My first thought was, "Why would any nation agree to sign away its sovereignty?"
My second was, "Just who is going to enforce such a document and how?"
After years of domination, I can see why the Czechs may be having second thoughts about volunteering to return to it.
Grym
Re: Credit given where credit due.
From http://queenbee-insidethehive.blogspot.com/2009/08...
August 3, 2009
But all Bear market rallies end, and then... But you can't go short too soon either. Trend riding is the game, and 'you have to wait for the market to come to you', as Bill Cara puts it.
I find his site is one of the best for independent traders, his RSI signal system is about 70% correct on trend changes. A wealth of information, and some very good traders, like the guy who runs "MaxPain".
Hope that helps
An idea. "Carapedia"
Hi,
I was just thinking of elaborating on Bill's idea of creating an information source for investing ideas. The idea would be based on the model of Wikipedia, or Carapedia. An online form would be generated where various investor could add information about a company that are edited by senior members. This would help organized the data you receive and help new investor understand what features of a company need to be investigate.
For instance you could have a form for UXG.
Company name UXG (us gold)
Management Rob McEwen
Management track record Estlablish GG, RBY
Management ownshership number of shares.
CAsh flow
Current Drill Results
Next date of Drill Results
Other information.
Re: Mauldin on Europe
"And by not triggering a credit default event because it was 'voluntary' and excluding the clauses that would permit banks to cash in their credit default swaps, did the market in CDS' just change in ways we cannot yet fathom?"
There's a lot of stuff on the blogs at the moment about the CDS racket - for racket it surely is, and everyone can see that now. I always did wonder if the CDS scam could work in the way that people supposed it would, but I had no idea of the mechanisms that might cause it to fail. Now it's obvious. Putting aside the issue of the legal frameworks on which individual CDS contracts are based, the bottom line is that the ISDA committee which has the power to determine whether or not a credit default has occurred is rigged by HBB. I never saw such a clear conflict of interest in my life. It's breathtaking.
http://financeaddict.com/2011/10/greek-cdsshenanig...
http://www.isda.org/dc/committees.html#EMEA
And again, Portugal
And again, Portugal now (who could have predicted that, right? Oh wait...): http://goo.gl/xkmvs
WIR #44
... is up.
Had to do it quickly so I can prepare for meetings this week. :)
Re: Kaimu's Sound Money & My Year In Review.
Hi Terryc
(The public has had a belly full of financial shenanigans and now that the public is being presented with the bill via Federal politics we should expect nothing short a huge push back of revolutionary proportions).
I hope you had a great time on your tour. As a person that has in me both what I consider liberal and conservative views my ‘year in review’ was a comment on how I see risk to the US as I know it. In any city USA there is at most 4 days worth of food, I have more… Revolution? Are we talking a kinder gentler revolution? OWS can put capitalism to the test; all systems worth their weight in salt should withstand a challenge – but I know in revolutions dogs do ok for a while, tic toc… a shame many of those won’t get their checks on the first… Leaving this to be resolved by the next generations is just wrong. So calls for revolution (of which I’m very well ‘informed’ of the potentials involved) probably won't get any traction until people are starving, and if we have one simply because bankers are ripping us off, or congress sux - I don't believe that is sufficient reason to put a nation at such risk. Who’s ass was the president going to kick? Hope and Change? Seriously, I take the ‘glass half full’ view and it’s too bad this government hasn’t taken the opportunity to address items like bigwad1 post regarding Harry Markopolos who blew the whistle on Bernie Madoff… really a sad state of affairs but as the president has pointed out ‘he’ didn’t find anyone that did anything illegal. Personally for the likes of Madoff I think we should have taken a page from the singapore caning book, taken everything from him and turned him loose in the middle of no where - leave the prisons (aka another public support trash program) to the English and French who created that nonsense.
Earl
new cars: will they become terrorist drones?
per Business Week, many modern cars' brake system is connected to other car systems which can be remotely controlled by hackers. Also, the engine can be revved remotely, and the speedometer fed faulty data. For the moment (until automated parking systems become common) the steering wheel remains immune. With new SUV's in vogue among elites around the world, will security forces now mandate vintage limos for corporate and political leaders?
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/making-cars-m...
Re: MoKat, From your post
Grym
You said "The present global economic policies are on a collision course with demographics and politicians continue to deal with symptoms without regard to the basic condition."
This is definitely true.
This week the world's population is estimated to exceed 7 BILLION. And it is estimated to increase to over 9 billion by 2050... that's 38 short years from now. Can technology stretch global resources to feed, house and cloth another two plus billion people? Those who are under 50 years of age better hope so, otherwise the more dangerous problem you mention will probably occur... global warfare. Economic warfare has begun. I do not wish to witness
another real war. The tools for such a conflict still exist, silently sitting in the closet but ready to be used. Youth of today do not know the fear of nuclear annihilation. I hope it stays that way.
The fictional global societies I used to read about 40 years ago where there was a small elite group who owned all the machines and technology is becoming today's reality. The system was productive enough to keep the masses alive even though they were not needed. They all led drab and unfulfilled lives. This society featured perpetual war and totalitarian control and little regard for anything else, including human life. The global economy has evolved into its current oligarchic state, backstopped by global governments. Most citizens are cut off from being able to provide for themselves and forced to belong to the system or their survival is at risk. Enslaved by debt at an early age, they will toil for their masters the rest of their lives. It looks lie fiction has become reality.
Regarding demographics, I find it kind of ironic that most of medical research is geared to life extension in a world where 50% of the world's children go to bed hungry each night. Pharma seems to be paying for half of the advertising on sat TV... then there's the lawyers seeking clients to claim their rebate for the lethal or debilitating side effects from said pharma products. The elite may be able to extend their average lives by 30-40 years if current research is successful. Full organ transplants grown in the petri dish may be possible soon.
Here at our forum, we expend much thought on trying to figure out what the elite are doing with their money so we can ride their coattails, trying to scalp a few pennies to create or supplement our income. Is the economy strong or weak? Will the market be up tomorrow or down? Is this stock a good price or a bad price? With the mass concentration of wealth and the immoral greed and deception deployed by this group, it grows more and more difficult to be a successful investor in the developed world. There are opportunities I believe in some of the remote underdeveloped countries but those opportunities are not available for most. We are stuck with what we have.
I'm sure many of us would wash our hands of the current investment club if there were a place we could go to earn a modest return on our savings and participate in something that was honest and had integrity. Maybe that's what Kaimu is trying to do.... he's hoping there's a decent return for truth telling . We shall see. The oligarchic boys may not like what he intends to say. They seem more interested in producing crap like Swamp Men and Hillbilly Repo than anything related to the truth.
It's all quite maddening and growing more so as time passes.
Have a good weekend all.
A Sister’s Eulogy for Steve Jobs
http://nyti.ms/tVKUNb
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/30/opinion/mona-sim...
http://tinyurl.com/3puxsoh
Re: A Sister’s Eulogy for Steve Jobs
NYUGrad,
I hope everybody reads that. Thanks.
Risk Off
Hi All - How quick was that! Guess the powers that be have decided to juice the dollar and save bonds as the action de jour. Dollar up >.75% on the bk of a $198mm market cap concern .. right. Happy Trading
Yen gets slammed Sunday evening
Time to buy TM already as suggested in WIR.
Dollar, euro jump versus Japanese yen
Bill wrote; (So, if you hope for the current major rally to continue in those markets, look for a BoJ intervention to weaken the Yen significantly, particularly against an also dropping US Dollar. Then, as I say, buy Toyota (TM) and the Goldminer stocks. Also, buy equities as well.)
Marketwatch – 9:38PM 10/30/2011 Sydney (MarketWatch) – the US dollar surged against the yen on Monday, buying 78.00 compared to 75.77 in late trading Friday.
I have a few Jan and April 70 calls on TM, trying to breakout the past couple days and I’d really like to see 10 points added pretty quick before the next pause.
Bill, I don’t doubt you one bit (If you doubt me, ask yourself if there has been a single case recently where the “young gun” personally walked off with tens of millions, or even millions, forget the billions these banks are admitting were lost.)
Earl
Re: Les, Czech this out...
Grym
The Czechs have a czechered history bordering on schizothymia. Using western script for slavic words and exhibiting a true bohemians love of chaos, Praha is a city I would consider as my second home after Moscow.
The Czechs have been east-west bing bong balls for centuries. They now have the ability to become in many respects the table. God forbid that they buy into eurocentrism...
I bought my daughter a flat near downtown Prague in 04 when she moved there to become a schoolmarm. Although I couldn't leverage the purchase, it was a decent investment. When she returned stateside last year, I sold it for 2.2X original cost. In 'Cash' societies markets clear quickly at fair 'for the times' prices while we lumber through the debt hog intermediaries that delay ad nauseum any transaction that would result in a loss.
At least the Czech Republic is no longer a 'torn' country like Ukraine. Cleaving off Slovakia righted a wrong of the post WWI world peace enthusiasts..
In their march to monetary mayhem, I hope that the EU won't take a Czech!
Central banks top up gold reserves
Some central bankers vote with their wallets for REAL MONEY ! GOLD . Also Goldman Sachs predicts copper could be unimaginably high in three years on the back of Chinese growth . Could Goldman Sachs be wrong ? http://tinyurl.com/3quftg8
Re: MoKat, From your post
MoKat - "Maybe that's what Kaimu is trying to do.... he's hoping there's a decent return for truth telling"
Truth tellers are rare birds. To be a truth teller, you must place telling truth above everything else, including your own ego. And the first truth you must realize is, you don't always know what the truth is. So when someone else points it out to you, that you are wrong about something, you change what you are saying because the truth is more important than your ego - it is vastly more important than you being right. This is because telling the truth is Job #1; being right and propping up your "personal credibility" isn't even on the list.
Not many people can do this. It requires an astonishingly high level of intellectual honesty. It is much easier for most people to simply have a strongly held point of view, and engage in whatever tactics they think will be effective to convince others that their view is the right one. That's all because of ego.
I strive to tell truth; when I fail it is because my ego gets in the way.
I think my favorite truth teller is Charles Hugh Smith.
http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html
USD/JPY
Manana some hedgie is going to blow all of their corks on a 5% move in the Yen. Leverage can consume equity faster than a keg of Guiness on tew fer one night in a Glasgow pub!
Currency trading is a mugs game. The 'house' is crooked and can only play with paper chits. Try putting a lien on the Spanish rail system if you 'win.' When will Greece get back the Elgin marbles? Like Neveeeeeeeeeer!
Just an observation
so you think your portfolio has problems?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-30/corzine-s...
MF Global Holdings Ltd., the company run by Jon Corzine that last week reported a record loss, had two of its credit ratings cut to junk and drained bank lines, faces a pivotal few days as the futures broker pitches itself to potential buyers to avert failure.
Since Corzine, 64, arrived at MF Global in March 2010, he increased the firm’s risk and used its own money to trade, including investments in European sovereign debt that have rattled markets.
MF Global, which has a market value of $198 million, owns $6.3 billion of Italian, Spanish, Belgian, Portuguese and Irish debt, the company said in an Oct. 25 presentation.
“We believe MF could generate proceeds from sale of its customer asset portfolio or FCM which frees up capital,” Niamh Alexander, an analyst at KBW Inc. in New York, wrote in an Oct. 27 note to clients, referring to a so-called futures commission merchant, or futures brokerage. “However, we cannot quantify the cost of wind down or exiting broker positions that could offset those proceeds and wipe out equity.”
EDIT: Ilya, how's that for a perfect example of what you were just saying?
Armstrong as clear as a bell on Europe's probable future
In Spain, unemployment is just shy of five million, or 21.5pc. There are 1.4m households where no family member has a job. The latest job losses have been in health care and schools, a foretaste of what will happen once the EU-imposed guillotine drops after this month's elections. It is an unhappy starting point for an economy tipping back into recession. "We can't go on like this. It is impossible to get out this crisis with austerity alone," said Socialist leader Alfredo Rubalcaba.
What Portugal needs is a 40pc devaluation against Germany. Instead, premier Pedro Passos Coelho is attempting an "internal devalution", with swingeing cuts to pay, pensions, welfare, and health. You cannot deflate an economy back to viability where total debt is 350pc of GDP. It is mathematical suicide.
Italy in turn has been told to balance its budget by 2013, even though it has a primary surplus and one of the lower debt levels (public and private) in the OECD club. This risks pushing Italy into a slump that sets off the destructive debt dynamic so widely feared. It misdiagnoses the problem. Italy is in crisis because it cannot compete. It is in the wrong currency.
Chancellor Angela Merkel warns that euro failure threatens a thousand plagues. "No one should think that another half-century of peace and prosperity is assured." She has the matter backwards. The euro itself has become an engine of destruction and cross-border rancour. Europe will not be happy again until this misguided experiment is shut down.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambrose...
Either the Germans agree to give up their own sovereignty, or watch the peripheral reclaim theirs.
Reversion to the mean biting hard. $ up 1.5% this morning. see attached.
Re: USD/JPY
Nice move if you were short Yen - BUT, how many were short Yen, with this inexorable rise this last 2 years? Many have been crucified on the cross of shorting the Nippon currency. In the big scheme of things, BoJ has its work cut out for it. This intervention is a pimple on an elephants ass when you look at the weekly chart.
http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6J&p=w1
Keep at it boys & I'll keep buying silver. Busy paying off taxes but squeezed out another kilo from the monthly salary to continue averaging in.
There are no markets anymore, just interventions - Chris Powell.
Re: USD/JPY
Les -
Actually I opened a small yen short on Friday. It appeared that the Yen up move had made perhaps a temporary high (its daily RSI hit 70, which over the past 6 months has been relatively often a temporary topping point), and that the FXY breakout above 129.50 might well draw the attention of the JCB. I picked it up a few minutes before the close.
Hopefully the move will hold into the NY open so I can collect on it. :)
Re: USD/JPY
interesting observation and usage of RSI. I did note belatedly the bearish divergence in 4hr & 4day FXY charts. Nice job.
edit: recalling one authors currency tell for risk on - EUR/JPY and the fact that resistance was holding on this currency cross led me to take another look.
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/article...
EUR/JPY has busted the first down trend line. It is now testing the 2nd, where it has failed this morning. Why it has failed, when the BoJ is weakening Yen, I don't understand. Is it something to do with recalibration of global assets?
The following site offers attractive full screen charts for those following currencies:
http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-jpy-advanc...
A rhetorical question - is this sell off today reversion to the mean or has the market caught on to Merkel's confidence game and realised its an empty shell? The EUR/JPY crossover is as good a tell as any other, as resistance is tested here. See attached.
Re: WIR #44
Bill, I am interested by your use of $TNX and $IRX. I am particularly impressed by the double top in $TNX's weekly stochastics at the beginning of 2011 - already indications that bond inflows were occurring long before equities signaled something wrong.
Will Fed intervention cause me grief in using these charts in future to interpret potential money flows?
Can the sell off across all futures this morning be laid at the feet of the BoJ as market players readjust themselves? I remember you saying something similar following the CHF intervention recently. Or is reversion to the mean - noted by Geoff Friday - being aided by the BoJ's move?
Thanks once again for putting in the time.
One less brain to be picked
John Thomas aka The Mad Hedge Fund Trader has revamped his site and locked out freeloaders like me looking for intelligent pointers and tidbits.
I can't remember what Bill was intending but I hope his mind isn't completely locked behind a pay wall.
Then again, the MHFT's calls were often very concrete setups that worked well and if I remember correctly that is what Bill wants to do as well - offer a pay wall service that provides concrete setups.
I'm happy to have been offered a number of years education by Bill, Vad and a select other few. But to find a trading strategy that fits my lifestyle, that's not yet happened. But I guess buy and hold is a strategy, for that is where I'm at today.
WHATS YOUR NEXT?
ALOHA!!
This lady will be on the REBECCA COSTA-COUNTERMEASURES SHOW tomorrow, Monday, October 31st, at 9AMPST!!!
LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_-MK1VWcaY&NR=1
Towards the end of this video Andrea Kates shows you a guy who raised funds for manufacturing his new wrist watch online by selling the product before it was manufactured. A whole new concept to Amazon's "pre-order"!
REBECCA COSTA COUNTERMEASURES
ALOHA!!
Watch MONDAY OCT 31st at 9AM PST!!!
LINK: http://empowerme.tv/countermeasures/
She will have Andrea Kates-The Business Genome on the show ...
Piece in Forbes on Grasberg strike (FCX)
http://onforb.es/w1WySP
Global iron ore prices reaching turning point - Baosteel
SHANGHAI, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The recent slump in global iron ore price signals the market may be reaching a turning point, China's top listed steel mill Baoshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd (Baosteel) , said on Monday, adding that the price correction will allow a healthy expansion for steel producers and miners.
Baosteel, which reported a 51-percent slump in third-quarter net profit on Friday, also said it was in negotiations with top iron ore producer Vale SA to review prices for fourth-quarter supplies.
"I expect the current tightness in iron ore supplies to ease by around end-2012 or 2013. The market may even reverse to be oversupplied after a flurry of mine investments," Baosteel General manager Ma Guoqiang said during an online results briefing.
Ma's comments echo those by the country's steel association, which said on Monday that global iron prices could continue to fall even after the record slump this month.