CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
[7:00am ET] Good morning.
Rolling in from Rodeo Drive and the Beverly Wilshire Hotel at 1:30am this morning, which is 4:30am my time, and market time, my brain is not going to function as smoothly as that Lamborghini we were admiring at the hotel entrance. I’m in a whole lot of hurt with a need for system maintenance today.
Later today, a few hours after the close, our computer system is also going to be down as Matt installs the 128GB motherboard. Thankfully, during what he calls a maintenance window, the system will be down for just 30 minutes or less between 8pm ET to midnight.
I wish I could say the same for myself. Like the computer, I will be functioning better tomorrow I think.
Have a good day, and don't forget, life can be good. Thank you Dr. John and Kaimu for being such good examples.
Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.
| Symbol | Name | Last Trade | Change | Related Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^ATX | ATX | 2,260.00 |
 37.00 (1.66%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^BFX | BEL-20 | 2,238.45 |
 29.43 (1.30%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FCHI | CAC 40 | 3,215.96 |
40.80 (1.25%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^GDAXI | DAX | 5,688.59 |
96.26 (1.66%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^AEX | AEX General | 281.26 |
4.66 (1.68%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^OSEAX | OSE All Share | 425.16 |
3.50 (0.82%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SMSI | Madrid General | N/A | 0.00 (0.00%) | Chart, More |
| ^OMXSPI | Stockholm General | 298.95 |
2.81 (0.93%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^SSMI | Swiss Market | 5,477.51 |
51.01 (0.92%) |
Components, Chart, More |
| ^FTSE | FTSE 100 | 5,369.06 |
25.47 (0.47%) |
Components, Chart, More |
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL
The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.
Enjoy your day.
Cara on Trends & Cycles
Vad's Catch of the Day
Kaimu's Sound Money
CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Jeff Borsato's Hidden Truth
This story from The Boston Globe is a textbook (and all too common) example of propaganda disguising itself as journalism.
Covering the Federal Reserve's former research economist Kenneth Rogoff, the author(Leon Neyfakh) begins this piece by proclaiming that the "nightmare inflation" of the 1970's:
"never came to pass, thanks to drastic measures taken by the Federal Reserve. For the better part of the past 30 years, the dollar has stayed stable, reassuring American families and the nation’s trading partners, with the central bank standing guard over the economy and doing everything necessary to keep inflation low."
It's nothing short of amazing that this is written in a major news publication without a trace of sarcasm or doubt. Following his career from as a Fed "inflation hawk" at large, Rogoff left to join the IMF before settling on his current post at Harvard. How working at institutions of such enormous folly and incompetence cements Rogoff's reputation is beyond me and anyone with an elementary understanding of this past decades financial soap opera.
The writer goes on to breathlessly proclaim:
Over the past several years, Rogoff has emerged as one of the world’s leading experts on the history of financial crises and how they work, a unique perch that has given him a long view on what is happening to our economy and what lies ahead.
Ah yes, Rogoff, a man most have never heard of has managed to become a leading expert on financial crisis. His solution is simple: induce inflation.
If the Federal Reserve raises its target inflation rate by several percentage points - up from around 2 percent to somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 to 6 percent - and injects new money into the economy until it gets there, then debtors will get some relief and the wheels of the economy will once again start to turn.
For those who disagree with Rogoff's claims, the writer took great care to post a list of "authoritative" celebrity economists that echo his sentiments:
Versions of the same call have been taken up by several prominent economists across the political spectrum, including Olivier Blanchard, the chief economist at the International Monetary Fund; Joshua Aizenman, co-editor of the Journal of International Money and Finance; Harvard’s Greg Mankiw, a former adviser to George W. Bush; and Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winning New York Times columnist.
There is nothing like confirming one's beliefs with the IMF, Harvard, former Bush administration officials and the New York Times. Institutions that either caused, participated in, or were willfully blind to the very recessions they claim to have a solution for.
Before we label Rogoff's approach as Quantitative Easing in disguise, the article tactfully notes:
The Fed has already tried this (Quantitative Easing) twice since 2008, and each time it has been controversial.
QE has been controversial, not a failure or the source of future instability. Like calling the death of a patient during surgery an "unforeseen event", we remove any real judgements towards the Fed's actions by stressing that some agreed with QE and some did not.
This is the state of modern journalism. The truth is carefully hidden behind bland platitudes and cover stories for the newest book being published (Rogoff has a new book on the market, surely it contains a hefty dose of advice and solutions).
Stories like these may seem laughable to regular followers of the markets, but most newspaper readers are not, and might be swayed into thinking this was objective journalism and not thinly veiled promotional messaging for the author and his upcoming book.
Be careful out there.
Jeff Borsato (aka Dr. Cosa)
You can reach me for comments, complaints, suggestions and the like at:
jeffborsato@caratrading.com
Comments
Econoday Today
Cara 100 Ratings Changes For Thursday
Good morning.
Today's Info Overload:
08:30 Initial/Continuing Claims
08:30 Productivity-Rev.
08:30 Unit Labor Costs - Rev.
10:00 ISM Index
10:00 Construction Spending
15:00 Auto/Truck Sales
------
CTSH - Upgraded to Strong Buy @ Needham. Target $100
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"Hurricane Irene wasn't that bad. In fact, it was downgraded to a tropical storm. Even our hurricanes are getting downgraded. Maybe Irene owed money to China too." -- Jay Leno
State of affairs
Is this a cyclical thrust of some caliber within a defined secular channel; that being, yo, what it is really does seem with FEDX & UPS being sickly of late to be a bankrupt concept...truth(edit...I do not presume to judge "truth", the term fickle is an attempt to portray human nature) is so fickle at times. The metal men/women hope, and I am one, a definable shot upward can and will bring relief to so many malleable men of war. All we need is a little help from "Bombastic Ben", emphasis mine, who seems willing(edit...what, with his mathematical capture and all). Crude is also flirting openly ; question is do we feel lucky?
edit...this page is relevant on the periphery and is need of definition; if feeling (edit...removed "rather", don't know why I included it to begin with)giving today or just interested, please do help with this page...thanks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definable_number
Goldman takes a dark view.
Goldman Takes a Dark View bit.ly/oiEZLs. Top GS strategist provided GS's hedge-fund clients with a particularly gloomy economic outlook.
Have a good & safe day all
Earl
US Mint's American Eagle Gold Coin Sales Soar 74% In August
Sales of American Eagle gold coins by the U.S. Mint posted the highest monthly increase for seven months in August, a sign that record high prices have done little to curtail retail investment in gold.
The volume of sales of the coins rose by 74% on the month in August to 112,000 ounces, the highest increase since January, according to figures posted on the Mint's website.
"Demand for gold remains very strong despite the high prices, as shown by coin sales," said analysts at Commerzbank. "The need for security among small investors especially still appears to be high."
The spot price of gold rallied 12% in August, the most significant month of gains since November 2009. At its record peak on Aug. 23, spot gold was 18% higher on the start of the month and up 35% from the beginning of the year.
Fear of currency debasement, stalling economic growth and signs of debt contagion in the euro zone have all contributed to gold's steep rise in recent months, with even a $200/oz correction to $1,703.10/oz last week being swiftly pared as investors took the opportunity to join the market at lower price levels. Spot gold traded at around $1,825/oz in Europe Thursday.
Demand in other areas of gold's physical market also remains strong, with central banks continuing to boost their gold reserves in recent months.
According to data released Wednesday by the International Monetary Fund, Russia added further to its bullion holdings in July, while Colombia returned to the market for the first time in more than a decade.
Russia, the world's eighth largest official holder of the precious metal, boosted its gold reserves by around 4.42 metric tons in July, taking the country's total holdings to around 841.1 tons. Russia's gold holdings comprise about 8% of its total reserves.
Meanwhile, Colombia, which hasn't lifted its gold reserves since 1998, increased its official holdings by 2.3 tons. This takes the country's total reserves to around 9.15 tons.
The presence of strong retail demand at the same time that central banks are ramping up their gold purchases is "not coincidental" said Robin Bhar, senior metals analyst at Credit Agricole.
"One thing reinforces the other," said Bhar. "The fact that the so-called experts are diversifying into gold has been sending out a message that the general public is listening to," he added.
New jobless claims prior 417K, consensus 407K actual 409K
http://fidweek.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fi...
unemployment trending sideways
Cara 100 Update
QCOM - added to the Top Picks Live list at Citigroup.
Reminder: Rising Ground Zero on tonight 8pm EST
http://bit.ly/nBQyV6
On Discovery Channel.
Big plans
There are people out there with huge plans. Here are a few>>>
“Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans urged easier monetary policy and said he favors setting unemployment and inflation markers that would trigger a pullback from near-zero interest rates.
“I would favor more accommodation,” Evans, a voting member of the Fed’s policy-making committee, said today in a CNBC television interview. “I am in favor of some of the most aggressive policy actions of anyone on the committee.”
[…]
“I am somewhat nervous about the economic recovery and where we stand at this point,” Evans said. “The first half of this year got revised down and we had very weak growth. We had been hoping to achieve something much more like a launch or escape velocity for growth.”
[…]
Evans said he “would have wanted to do more” easing earlier this month, when the Fed decided to commit to keeping its target rate near zero through mid-2013. The commitment is conditioned on “low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation,” which Evans said may be too vague.
“One thing I think we really ought to do is clarify what our policy intentions are going forward,” he said. “It is conditional. I think we need to explain what we mean by that conditionality.”
An improvement would be to detail “the economic markers” that would require a policy change. “We could allow rates to remain low until the unemployment rate fell to a certain level, maybe 7.5 percent, maybe 7 percent” or “if inflation became tremendously unacceptable” which could mean medium-term inflation at more than 3 percent.
“If we could sort of make everyone understand that this is going to be in place for a longer period of time, we would knock out some of that restraint that comes about when people talk about premature tightening,” Evans said.
[…]
“Employment growth has been very weak,” the Chicago Fed leader said. “The economy has been growing, but it is a small positive. We are really going sideways more than anything else. ‘‘The labor market — with 9.1 percent unemployment — we haven’t experienced rates like that which haven’t been associated with recession. This is not a good situation.”
[...]
“Inflationary pressures are not nearly as strong as a lot of people think,” Evans said. While the most recent consumer spending report was “pretty good,” most other economic reports, including manufacturing surveys, have shown continued weakness into the third quarter, he said.
“I really don’t need to see a lot more data to understand that we haven’t achieved escape velocity,” he said. “We need to do better.”
Imagine that. This Fed person is saying that the economy must achieve "escape velocity”.
http://tinyurl.com/3mzgqjb
And this from Bruce Krasting:
Administration's plan to Re-Fi residential mortgages on a massive scale:
http://tinyurl.com/3mzbq3x
Re: Big plans
Thanks, I needed to hear this today...as always goodness makes its journey and will have its way with those precious(not in Cara meaning about Hacksters to put a fine point on it.) and rare souls.
(US) AUG ISM MANUFACTURING:
(US) AUG ISM MANUFACTURING: 50.6 V 48.5E; PRICES PAID: 55.5 V 55.0E
Market Overthinking
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6wqKb8EUxI
manic action...too weak, too strong...when will Bernankelypse happen?
More Big Plans... from the East
I have often pondered the significance of Hong Kong returning to Chinese control in 1997 and attempted to properly place it within the sphere of my unanswered questions. These questions seem to be consolidating in purpose, while complexity of detail accumulates.
Discovered in my early morning rounds today, I post in hopes of intelligent discourse.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bt_H3OWxUSY
pulse
Rising fears of counterparty risk
“One sign of worry is the increasing reluctance of banks to use their balance sheets to facilitate trades, which has hit sectors from corporate bonds to the short-term repurchase market, where there is $1.6 trillion (980.8 billion pound) in triparty loans."
"...banks have reduced activity in the intra-dealer Treasury repurchase agreement market by 63 percent since the end of June, according to Barclays"
http://tinyurl.com/4yrt6jt
Looking back to 2008 this kind of stress in the banking system, where funding froze up literally overnight, was the start of the financial crisis.
Re: (US) AUG ISM MANUFACTURING:
Whether this is good/bad news via the market reaction, I am scared, not...period. As I was noting from yesterday, the prop desk have been put on alert. A poster here yesterday provided an eloquent rendition of the disorganized mind that is confidence and gamesmanship by above referenced pariah, now known as "hacksters" by me and my friends in "Social equity". Take THAT, you more than know what to do now!
Tech update
CIEN weighs in with profit vs expected loss, stock up 18% and rising. This sector has been oversold. FNSR reporting this afternoon. This is a growth sector, in the midst of a huge recession. See the upside when we get thru it. Got GOOG?
Re: More Big Plans... from the East
:)
QQQ
Looking maybe to role over? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=3...
Irene
http://rstorage.filemobile.com/storage/4817279/233
Just ran across this incredible photo taken In Jersey City as the storm approached. I have never witnessed such a storm and find this remarkable.
I saw a classical magazine cover contrarian sign
at my dentist waiting room this AM.
It was a stock of silver coins on August edition of Money magazine. I don't read this POS, but remember in the past they were yelling sell dollars just before dollar rebounded, and recommended buying pickup trucks and large SUV "on sale" when oil went up. Ya right!
They are also gloomy about housing, and generally talking about being thrifty, maybe a recovery is coming?
dollar going up lately
right after I gave up on it.
At least yen is going down like I hoped.
CNBC Attempts to Quell GLD Conspiracy Rumors, Hilarity Ensues
http://tinyurl.com/4xbofm7
quote
"CNBC yesterday ran a cheerleading, anti-conspiracy piece on the SPDR GLD ETF, in an attempt to convince gold bugs that the trust actually holds physical gold. LOL, right?
As can be seen in the photo above, CNBC's Bob Pisani toured the GLD warehouse, and presented this bar marked ZJ6752 as proof that GLD holds the phyzz.
Ok, conspiracy debunked, right?
Well, until somebody had to go and check SPDR's full GLD bar list, and discover that ZJ6752 is nowhere to be found in SPDR's inventory. "
Re: Irene
Stunning shot.
Watch this scene of Phoenix being engulfed during a sandstorm for some similar feel of nature's awe;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8W4Cx44XKZ4
pulse
Severety of the recent selloff
To put things in perspective I played with $CPC chart. The jump in 50 DMA is eye popping (attached). This has to be a great opportunity for a contrary investor that times entries well. Not entire sure of the timing though.
Edit: I studied the Rydex short positions and they actually increased as we rallied from the last low. Looks like small traders are shorting this rally so far. So, the timing is actually encouraging now.
The only real unknown is the dollar.
hidden truth new post
just posted a piece late today, i found this article this morning and just had to tear it up... no wonder newspapers are slowly crumbling under the weight of real journalism that is free from advertising oversight...
Re: CNBC Attempts to Quell GLD Conspiracy Rumors, Hilarity ...
johnuk,
Thank you for finding this story. It's precisely the kind of thing that Cara Financial TV (when it comes) will be showing the public, all over the world.
Re: hidden truth new post
Jeff B,
Great stuff, the kind I was hoping you'd bring to the Community. Thank you.
Rosenberg's Rant on QE3 (from yesterday)
It’s not as if QE2 accomplished anything except a blip on the screen as far as the market was concerned, and it elicited no lasting impact for the economy either. QE1 did work but that was when the system needed to be saved – the S&P 500 rallied 74% on that program. QE2 was nothing more than a gimmick shrouded in deflation concerns that never materialized, and during this program the stock market ended up just 16%. And so what will QE3 bring except more in the way of diminishing returns and resource misallocations caused by central bankers attempting to play around with mother nature by manipulating asset prices? Call it the equivalent of the Godfather Trilogy: Godfather I was epic; Godfather II not quite as good but still fine; and Godfather III was a dud.
Re: Rosenberg's Rant on QE3 (from yesterday)
Being of the same opinion on QE2 and 3, I must express respectful disagreement on two points.
One, QE1 succeeded only in saving what had to be allowed to crumble. Rotten remnants of the non-viable system on life support impede the recovery and keep us in a sluggish mess we are in.
Another... am I the only person in the world who liked Godfather III?? :)
Re: hidden truth new post
Jeff I don't think you went far enough.
"For the better part of the past 30 years, the dollar has stayed stable, reassuring American families and the nation’s trading partners, with the central bank standing guard over the economy and doing everything necessary to keep inflation low."
Wow. Visions of motherhood and apple pie come to mind.
Pop quiz. How many imagine that the Fed "standing guard" and "dollar stable" and "inflation low" corresponds to a loss of 66% of purchasing power? Anyone? According to the uber-generous CPI calculator, $100 in 1980 will now buy $36 of stuff. Ya like that? Feel stable to you? I'm so happy the Fed "stood guard" over my savings. Scumbags.
http://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
And this is with hedonics, substitution, and all the various shenanigans the government has done to inflation data over the past 30 years. Just imagine if these had been honest numbers?
And Mr Rogoff thinks that EVEN MORE inflation is the recipe for success? As if we haven't screwed the savers enough in this country.
We REALLY NEED the Cara news station. If we work this right, we can make MSM look like the shills they are.
There is so much material out there.
Re: Rosenberg's Rant on QE3 (from yesterday)
"QE1 succeeded only in saving what had to be allowed to crumble."
So now we are in this pattern of pouring more and more money down a rat hole, pumping more and more life blood into a corpse.
We should have concentrated on saving the goose that layed golden eggs and killed the egg sucking weasel bankers that robbed the nest.
Re: hidden truth new post
agreed dave!
speaking of which i sent you an email recently about some questions i had but wasnt sure if it connected to your profile.
can you email me at jeffborsato@caratrading.com
much appreciated.
Long Time Reader
Bill and your excellent crew,thank you for all your knowledge and time that you are so willing to share with us.What a great example.
You work more hours than anybody I've ever known.
Glad that you have picked Whistler for this years event as I live in Victoria.
Am really looking forward to attending.
Thanks Again for Everything!
Ron
Re: Rosenberg's Rant on QE3 (from yesterday)
"So now we are in this pattern of pouring more and more money down a rat hole, pumping more and more life blood into a corpse."
Exactly - depriving viable bodies of that blood, having corpse taking too much space that could be used by those bodies - in short, exhibiting all the signs of the rot that occurs when cleansing is not allowed to take natural course
http://www.facebook.com/RealityTrader/posts/250549...
Continued rumors of CLF buyout.....
However, my thoughts would be more toward ACI instead... no mention anywhere, which is what I love.. supplies 16% of US electrical energy.. 2 nd/ largest deposits of Met. coal in US.. easy access to western US ports from Powder River... who knows, but I wonder if BHP is thinking along these lines...? Aussie dollar might do a lot of talking...
GRR.V
One sticky stock!
Catch of the Day
TZA milk trade http://t.co/k54UAw2
Re: GRR.V
ALOHA!!
A takeoff from SNL ... "GRR bean berry ... berry ... goood to me!"
Still, yes, juniors are like that. If you buy you have to expect that and the fundamentals will eventually win out based on property and management. Not a place for the quick buck! Since when has building real monetary assets been a quickie? Key word is ASSETS!
I have been in this space since 2002. I was fortunate to pick more winners than losers over that nine year period. Sometimes its a "no brainer" like buying US GOLD the first day Rob announced it would be his new flagship. Other times its under the radar until it isn't, like SLR(ASX), which now has to issue statements on merger deals which have been on going for some time now(see recent ASX news release).
Today while sitting here with Bill in the Hollywood Bungalow I heard CNBC mention the word "JUNIOR", but only in relation to the GDXJ. Still not the JUNIOR space I'm in, which by the way, has been the most profitable since the late 1990 techs! This is where if you position yourself accordingly 100% to 2800% annual returns are not "mission impossible". I cannot believe how totally out of touch Americans are in this space. Now CNBC is trying to set themselves up as the experts in all things gold and JUNIOR! Where was CNBC in 2001 when I bought my first Credite Suisse bar? Where were they in 2003 when I bought my first NDMLF shares for $0.65 ... now NDM? I only know one person in my life who was in gold from the day "The Nixon" closed gold money down! Hats off to John Pitchard, a friend of mine from way back who in 1972 sat me down in his living room and introduced me to $45USD one ounce gold bars! To be honest though I was more concerned about going to Vietnam at the time! Priorities of youth ...
Re: GRR.V
Kaimu, good post, and look forward to your update in Whistler. I want to be sure you know that what I meant by my comment is there is a persistent bid for this stock. I traded in and out a couple of times, and am despairing of buying it again under $1 which is a good sign that this company is a hot property.
Re: Rosenberg's Rant on QE3 (from yesterday)
Vad,
I have (and will) always believe banks should have been allowed "to crumble". In the early 1980s it happened under Bill Seidman and we seldom hear it mentioned or remembered.
From Wiki:
Lewis William Seidman (April 29, 1921 - May 13, 2009)[1] was an American economist, financial commentator, and former head of the United States of America Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.
Seidman was critical of rescuing the banks' managements and their shareholders during the Troubled Asset Relief Program, comparing the bailout with action he and his team at the Resolution Trust Corporation took during the S&L crisis of the 1980s: "What we did, we took over the bank, nationalized it, fired the management, took out the bad assets and put a good bank back in the system."
Haven't seen Godfather III.
Grym
CARA CONFERENCE
Another reminder!
The special Cara Whistler Conference 2011 Westin rate ($159.) is only good until tomorrow Sept. 2, 2011. Book now to avoid missing out.
Call 1-866-412-2864 or email reservations@westinwhistler.com under the name Cara Trading Advisors
Space is still available for the conference.
Silvercorp's Rui Feng (CEO) and I will have just returned from China on Sept 29 or 30, ready to talk about what's going on at the mine and in the company.
See you in Whistler!
http://caracommunity.com/sites/default/files/user6...
BP's Cold War With Russia No Longer in Arctic
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of BP(BP_) are getting hammered Thursday as fears that its massive joint venture in Russia, TNK-BP, is under pressure after a second day of Russian bailiffs raiding BP's Moscow offices.
BP shares were down 4% on Thursday morning -- and were off by 3% in London -- as Wednesday's raid of BP's Moscow operations lingered into a second day and led investors to conclude the situation was worsening. The Wall Street Journal insinuated as much in an article on Thursday morning, which may have also exerted pressure on BP shares.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11237061/1/bps-cold...
Re: BP's Cold War With Russia No Longer in Arctic
Heard these guys were involved > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHqy-chPMnM
Re: GRR.V
Kaimu,
What advise would you give to someone if he wanted to learn how to forage in the junior miners? I know almost nothing on how to do research: (1) how to find out that a company exists? or where can i find a listing of these mostly OTC miners? (2) what things do you look for when trying to decipher if a mine has assets that are worth it? (3) what do you look for in the leadership? (4)how long do you typically hold? related, what are your position sizes ?
Often been intrigued but have had no chance to increase my knowledge on this front. Please excuse me if the questions are too basic :)
Thanks !
Joe
TLT advancing upon a downtrend line break
follow through will be key tomorrow. Initial target would appear to be the recent high at 112. SPY is testing 5 day moving average support here.
TNA topped out nicely yesterday. Looking forward to pillaging this market as a daytrader....AAAAARGH! :)
BAC looks like fair game. I Wonder if it can be shorted.
Re: TLT advancing upon a downtrend line break
"Looking forward to pillaging this market as a daytrader.."
Just look through our today's trades... it's bonanza :)
Oh, and was it timely or what... http://on.fb.me/nhUr5i
Re: CARA CONFERENCE
To anyone on the fence about going, I highly recommend it. I'm sure you'll learn a lot whether you are a beginner, intermediate, or advanced trader. I had a great time at the conference in 2009 and wish I could've gone in 2010.
Just the drive up from Vancouver to Whistler should be spectacular.
http://tinyurl.com/ye6t4gq
I'm planning to stop at Shannon Falls, the Tantalus Lookout, and Brandywine Falls.
Typically, at the end of Sept, the rainy season hasn't started yet and temperatures on avg. are very pleasant with valley highs in the lower 60s and a morning low in the upper 40s.
See you there,
Tremendous11 a.k.a.
Dan the Weatherman
TRP - It's About Time (again)
Hi All - How is it this administration only comes to its senses once and a while? Happy Trading
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-26/transcana...
Re: CARA CONFERENCE
Dan, glad to hear you'll be there!
I also can feel a good workout for my camera coming
Options traders setting records
CBOE averaged a record 6.6 Million options contracts per day in August, up +44% from July 2011 and up +88% from August 2010.
Interestingly, the totals are now fairly evenly split between equity options, index options and ETF options whereas a year ago the equity options total was about double the other two types.
Re: Options traders setting records
Bill -
Hedging the uncertainty of a more volatile future, no doubt.
Re: GRR.V
Joe if you look on the Caracommunity homepage there is a link to the Cara Select Junior Gold brief.It might be of interest to you,maybe give you a start, I have created a link to it for you below:
http://caracommunity.com/sites/default/files/user6...
Commission on Wartime Contracting
Yesterday, the Commission on Wartime Contracting released its final report
http://www.wartimecontracting.gov/
Incredible waste and fraud.
A former Congressman is fighting back.
http://www.youaskabout.com/news/2011/09/01/alan-gr...
Who is Alan Grayson?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Grayson
Who pays? We the People are paying for it. But who will pay the biggest price?
Something for the youth of America to think about when they next go to the voting booth. You too can fight back. The next federal election could be decided by teens and twenty-somethings. You have the numbers. Are you going to fight?
Still just bouncing
http://bit.ly/pb0cVb
Trying to keep emotion out, but i would be surprised if prices can retake the 200 day moving avg.
Re: GRR.V
Thanks for the pointer. Looking forward to reading this. Seems to be a glitch - the PDF doesn't load, neither this link, nor if I click from the homepage. Assuming this is a transient thing (Bill mentioned some system downtime I think).
Re: Still just bouncing
On the other hand, we could open down, and then rally up to the 200 dma. A couple of days of correction during a move up is expected. The number of people who expect Ben to ride to the rescue (and/or see the current market as undervalued) is not to be underestimated.
I'm thinking - watch the financials. Currently they appear to be tipping over, but who knows what could happen?
Re: Options traders setting records
"Interestingly, the totals are now fairly evenly split between equity options, index options and ETF options whereas a year ago the equity options total was about double the other two types."
Bill, FWIW. The Options Industry Council (OIC) is providing (marketing) free seminars on ETF options. I actually received a mailing today of a specific ETF option seminar coming up later this month.
Judging by the record setting option activity in an increased volatile environment, I'd say they are having success.
"THE CURRENCY WAR IS GOING TO GET WORSE" IF QE3 IMPLEMENTED
BRASILIA, Sept 1 - Brazil will not allow its currency to strengthen further if the United States implements any new round of monetary easing, Finance Minister Guido Mantega told Reuters in an interview.
Mantega said Brazil and other countries will suffer from a new wave of excess global liquidity if the U.S. Federal Reserve implements a third round of quantitative easing, or "QE3," as he expects.
"The currency war is going to get worse," Mantega said. "But we're going to take even stronger measures to keep (the real) from strengthening."
Mantega made the comments late on Wednesday, immediately prior to a surprise rate cut by Brazil's central bank. He requested that his comments not be published until after Brazilian financial markets opened on Thursday.
Mantega said Brazil is ready to increase a tax on derivatives from its current level of 1 percent if markets "abuse" the real and push it beyond its recent level of about 1.60 per dollar.
Brazil has taken several steps to limit gains in its currency, which is one of the world's most overvalued. Measures passed in July permit the derivatives tax to be increased up to a level of 25 percent in order to make speculation on Brazil's currency markets less profitable. They also allow the government to modify margin and deposit requirements, Mantega said.
"We haven't used all our options," he said. "We've got the ammunition, but we haven't used it yet."
Secret Exemptions Allowed Speculators to Distort Futures Markets
Interview with Michael Greenberger (former Chief of Staff to Brooksley Born):
http://tinyurl.com/4429c2z
(18 min video)
Re: Still just bouncing
NYU, Dave; I'm looking for the SPX to pull back to the 10dma 1177 - maybe a few points under that where it will either bounce or continue down. It's only a guess of course but I have my SDS/QID calls at the ready to sell if we get there and get a strong move up - if it continues down then it should help cover some losses in my long account. Jobs report will be so important, no mattrer if one believes the numbers or not - people are starting to take other positions and leaving our company but I think their looking for a different culture.
take care
Earl
Server upgrade complete
Took longer than expected. The screw up was actually caused by a loose screw. Really.
Earthquake today
http://news.lalate.com/2011/09/01/los-angeles-eart...
I definitely felt it.
nyt article cites U.S suing major banks for mortgage fraud
http://nyti.ms/oePisP
I have doubts the govt is really truly going to kill off the banking sector. what else can come other than another settlement to fund bigger govt?
Re: GRR.V
ALOHA!!
I was a contributing writer on the Fortuna Silver part of the brief.
Still own shares ...
Re: TLT advancing upon a downtrend line break
2:45am So TLT is one POTENTIAL risk off indicator as the charts make some topping noise here as illustrated by the bond ETF chart posted last night. Some others are:
FXF - Swissie. Who wasn't watching the Swiss Franc pop as the indexes hit resistance? An indicator of money fleeing from one asset that has POTENTIALLY hit the wall into another so-called safer haven. How that plays out we can only wait and see.
Q's - 1st index to hit resistance. My chart shows the 40MA but anyone with a 50MA will recognise the same resistance. Resistance has been accompanied by a resurgence of interest in the dollar, but given the behaviour in USD, Yen & Euro I'm less interested in these daily moves.
Semiconductors - along with SPY, Q's & IWM I watch SMH, normally a leader of any new market advance. Well leading it ain't, making a lower high which shows relative weakness to the indexes. Buyer's don't appear interested.
Precious metal miners are outperforming bullion by virtue of apathy in said bullion at this time, both hovering above their 10 day moving average. What comes next?
SVM is just not playing ball and I made sure it was going down before selling at 8.52. That first sale at 9.05 looking so much better. This is life. The market is a hard teacher and doesn't hesitate the use of the cane to remind you of what you can be doing better.
Watching GDX and SLW for further clues to this sector, especially SLW and GDXJ for clues that big money is going to turn on retail investors again.
JMO & FWIW
5:50am edit: I see the bullion was only resting for the next advance. Curious to see if miners are following with the indexes retreating. Looks like risk off. We shall see today.
Re: "THE CURRENCY WAR IS GOING TO GET WORSE" IF QE3 IMPLEMENTED
Tpedward;
The essence and magnitude of the problems we all face, globally, is contained in this post.
Reality, politics, threats, power, manipulation and the central fault of the floating currency nightmare unleashed on the world on August 15, 1971.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRzr1QU6K1o
"We've got the ammunition, but we haven't used it yet."
The Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times" asserts its power.
We return to a foundation of honest weights and measures, prosecute the fraudsters and eliminate the various wealth confiscating mechanisms of political power .... or send these problems to the next generations.
Freedom or Bondage - If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.
Not sleeping tonight,
pulse
Dutch Television - game shows with failed asylum seekers
Imagine you're the African son or daughter of a well educated professional accepted ten years ago into Holland on refugee or immigration status. 10 years ago, that was before 9/11 and it was another epoch.
National conservatism is sweeping Europe and child immigrants who've spent their entire lives in Europe are being returned to places they know nothing of. Television is getting in on the act with a quiz show to give one of them a chance to load up on some cash before they board the plane. Viewers get a chance to win prizes too, but they get to go to the Caribbean instead.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,...
The producers suggest that this show will bring attention to the plight of these youths. Forgive me if I remember that television is about putting bums on seats in front of the screen using the latest titillation and passing fad as opposed to fostering critical thought, which has a tendency to put TV viewers to sleep.
I'm deeply impressed by the hypocrisy passed off as International Relations (one of my Uni majors) that permits Holland to export its violence and hooliganism to other people in the name of peace, revenge or democratization (the latter euphemism still makes me smile 10 years later), yet others are considered persona non grata on their turf. The following is a great polemic by the way:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0DDuRraJbOg
So excuse me FT.com that when I see your opinion that "10 years on, 9/11 has not changed the world" I remember why I don't want to pay to read your trash.
Hubris abounds the Occident and Europe is seriously losing the plot. I hope something can help these people to find it again soon.
FT.com Vid - PMI as recession indicator and 12mth future returns
The small chart screenshot illustrates how the purchasing managers index has contracted in recent months, which is in line with a vid link I posted recently that showed a contraction in manufacturing growth, which the author had predicted in January through long leading indicators. US PMI actually came in just above contraction yesterday at 50.6 (note I said a contraction of GROWTH, not a recessionary contraction per se).
One factoid of interest from the FT vid is that 12 month future returns for equities on the S&P are often good to excellent WHEN PMI has finished bottoming out and turns up.
So PMI is bottoming in this quarter or the next and is about to turn up. S&P returns CAN BE EXCELLENT the 12 months following the upturn in PMI.
When I see the weekly Index charts my first thought is that they look good. 12 months ago I'd be all in on such charts. Now I know that the market is capable of yanking us lower one more time for what could possibly be a good run into the Presidential elections in 2012. Of course we have to wait and see what the market does, but I am still in cash.
To see the full FT vid:
http://video.ft.com/
And for the love of our collective sanity, please stop quoting the following idiot:
"We Are in 'Worse Situation' Than in 2008: Roubini "
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44368995
This guy just won't go away. :)
Technical Bounce Is as Technical Bounce Does
Puplava is always a good read for traders wanting to learn more:
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ryan-pu...
Deutsche Bank must hold support being revisited.
Re: nyt article cites U.S suing major banks for mortgage fraud
NYUGrad,
Another Opening... Another Show! (You can almost hear the music.)
Corporations don't commit fraud, people do. Oh, they may throw in another Bernie Ebers, but we all know who the biggest offenders are and they will not be touched.
Greenspan, Paulson, Rubins, Summers, Franks... a long list who will not only keep their freedom, but their loot as well.
Any individuals in BP go to the slammer? No! This is just another shot at appearing to 'do something" in hopes of placating the masses who are very restless.
Instead of killing the banking sector it may only distill it to fewer, even humungous banks.
Grym
Alaska 7.1 quake
http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/2011/09/02/lqw6d6/01/me...
Re: Dutch Television - game shows with failed asylum seekers
Les,
"National conservatism is sweeping Europe and child immigrants who've spent their entire lives in Europe are being returned to places they know nothing of."
After the Norwegian shooting spree this as a trend is especially disturbing. We may see people in the same situation as thousands of Jews who were allowed (or managed) to leave Germany pre-WWII, but unable to find countries willing to accept them.
A dismal economy and jobs shortage breeds fear and blame. The problem is those who are the cause will not be handy and scapegoats will be chosen. I have for some time expected that our Hispanic population will be targeted even if they have a family history pre-dating our existence as a nation.
Yet, our "best & brightest" continue to avoid the medicine needed to cure the situation.
Grym
Silvercorp reacts to fraud allegations
NOt sure if this has been posted yet or not.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/09/02/s...
Absolute biggest concern with SVM
is a trading halt... and for how long.....
Re: Silvercorp reacts to fraud allegations
"The anonymous author said his firm held a short position in Silvercorp shares, and he intended to further spread his concerns via the Internet."
Is a Hedge Fund targeting SVM
Short interest has increased from 265k in May to over 9 million as of 8/15.
I may just buy a couple of calls on this stock in case this is just a witch hunt.