Blog for December 17, 2009 [See POST-CLOSE REPORT]

Fedex topline down, stock down pre mkt. http://bit.ly/7Y9fP6. Review segment growth or lack of. 

Would you eliminate conflict of interest with Glass Steagall without a powerful and diligent regulatory authority?

Prior 474k Consensus 465k Actual 480k - Miss by 15k

Not a green shoot. Market dipped briefly and then recovered.

So the dollar is already up 1% today before the open, clipping $20 from the price of gold, $0.70 from oil, $0.35 from silver, and 9.25 from SPX. Do we think the buck will continue to move higher today? Or do we bet on a plateau, or perhaps a little dip?

If the buck doesn't move higher, dip-buying in gold has been pretty vigorous, and it seems to have good support through the 1110 through 1115 range. I'm not sure about the long term (i.e. longer than, say, this afternoon) but it might be good for a nice bounce off 1110.

I see that gold was last at 1115 on Tuesday, but the buck was at 76.90 at that time. Now the buck is at 77.80 and gold is at 1115. In other words, gold is treading water, while the dollar is rising. I'd say that's gold-bullish.

FD: long gold @ 1114.60

I have listened to what Nenner has said on TV or interviews over the years. He always seems to make it sound so easy and is calling tops and bottoms so well that I was curious about his service.

Kaimu said, "Almost everything I click on at his site wants me to register as a "potential client" and even asks for my phone number so that I may be contacted by his sales dept. Are there that many suckers in the World?"

I guess I'm a sucker. Yes, I registered and gave them my phone number and
e-mail, but I did not get the same impression as Kaimu, you have to dig a little bit before you are asked for your phone number and its only if you wanted a free trail.

Here is what I learned. After giving my phone number to them around Yom Kippur, I have yet to receive a phone call. In a few days I started receiving emails of their cycle work and calls. They were very generous in the length of time that they provided their work for evaluation, extremely generous. They covered a large amount of macro markets and gave very specific buy points and stop points based on their cycles. They were a very good set of extra eyes.

After evaluation, I did not think it was for me, but was very please to have had the opportunity to see their mind-set. One day the e-mails just stopped and I have yet ever been contacted by them other than receiving their research. They are not the "Holy Grail" no one is, but they are solid.

It is easy to do a quick look around someone's web site and make critical evaluation's as Kaimu did, but by going further and engaging with Nenner I gained insight. It was myself that was seeking to gain insight on cycle work.

In reality what I'm trying to say is that your should not judge a book by its cover. I'm glad I did not.

Cheers T3D

Last night local news reported a 35% increase in people at food pantries, many are first time recipients. The encouraging part is the number of contributions they are getting.

Our official unemployment is at 17.6%, job quality is down and multiple part time and temp jobs are increasing. These types of jobs list you as employed and are ignored in the data.

When everyone realizes the programmed distortion in the federal reporting perhaps we will see enough despair (nothing left to give) and resulting anger to effect the kind of changes Bill wrote about this morning.

Throw the charts away on C. These C crooks are struggling to keep from being exposed to the whole world.
@ 1.91 buy of C is one step away from a c failure. They have sold off many of their business's that generated a profit and still hold onto their mortgage unit! There is more going on at C then meets the eye, Abu Dhabi can see it as plain as day and want their money back ASAP.
Buyer beware especially at 1.91!

"Throw the charts away" - That could be said for about every stock and ETF.

What everyone knows isn't worth knowing. It looked like the end of the line for C in March.

At 1.91, the risk is controllable and definable.

GL

With these "warnings", I feel even better about a C trade. Even the Fast Money guys were skittish last night.

But C has to come to me which is a drop of 40%. I would expect all the C bulls to have thrown in the towel by then, a "capitulation" trade. Keep in mind, I don't read the EPS and other fundamental blather. I want to buy fear and sell euphoria.

After looking thru some screens, LYG looks even better and a more timely trade.

GL.

Update: C hits RSI 7 day of 9.30. Looks like an exhaustion gap. One cancels other order. buy stop 3.22/3.22 limit and buy limit 3.07. Latter is if the big boys gun the sell stops near the open. I like LYG better but opts expiration is 4 bucks for C for Dec/Jan so it could be a quick hitter/trade.

Off to work.

Again, GL/good trading.

Sen. Bunning just quoted a blogger, re Bernanke winning man of the year. quoting the Blogger 'this is like the captain of the titanic being awarded for sinking the ship'

LOL. too bad nothing will stop his renomination.

As I have stated, and now many here have eluded to, the only way this is going to be fixed if American people, you and I who live here and pay taxes, must STOP!

- Stop paying income tax
- Stop paying our bills
- Stop working
- March to DC and plan not coming home until the acts of Wall St are fixed, and perpetrators punished

July 5th, 2010 sounds like a good Monday to start. I guess I am lucky (or am i?) to have a job and some nest egg. But rest assured if I become unemployed, I will try to mobilize a group of unemployed and foreclosed on citizens from NY and go to DC, funded by unemployment checks. We will march to DC with tents. I am 100% content on living off Ramen and Spam, sleeping outside the white house. I am truly tired of this pillage by the few scum bags who are in power.

I am 99% sure that no politician or Mr. Irrelevant (Obama) will truly fix our broken economy and broken govt. I truly hope American's revolt. I would love to see nothing more than 15 million Americans who are jobless, or foreclosed on, camp out in DC.

Been gone for awhile myself. Whatever happened to Chickenpookie, 2nd_ave, Vinod? Don't see them post much anymore.

Daily, http://bit.ly/6wibyO
15 min, http://bit.ly/5eGl7u

Being asked frequently about my setups working in longer time frames, thought I'd post this one. Chart with annotations is pretty much self-explanatory. Yellow area indicates Cup, blue - Handle. Move topped so far at 17.48, we participated in today's part of it exiting at 17.44.

maybe not C, but the charts are reading fine for daytrading

Another excellent example, Vad. BTW, do you use wider time frames to look for the same patterns for position trades?

LOL... see http://caracommunity.com/content/blog-december-17-...? :)

Good spot - this is what we call "conservative entry" - former resistance becomes new support

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. lawmakers will conduct an investigation into the government's decision to allow Citigroup Inc. (C) to retain sizable tax breaks, a key Democrat said Thursday, calling the deal an "outrage."

Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D, Ohio), who chairs an investigative subcommittee, said the panel plans to examine U.S. Treasury Department communications and will interview key individuals who encouraged the decision to waive the long-standing tax rule last week.

"Are you kidding me? We give away the tax break, give away any semblance of control over a company that has been a 30-year poster child for troubled management," Kucinich said.

The comments came after the Internal Revenue Service agreed last week to waive a tax rule that mitigates the use of tax breaks when a change of ownership occurs. The Treasury's planned sale of its 34% stake, which is now expected to take longer than previously anticipated, would have triggered the standard, leading to the IRS decision to waive the rule.

"This isn't a farce, it's an outrage," Kucinich said of the decision.

The Treasury said earlier this week that it was planning to sell as much as $5 billion of Citigroup stock in conjunction with the company's plan to repay the Treasury $20 billion. Assistant Secretary Herbert Allison Jr., who oversees the government's investments in financial firms, told Kucinich's panel that the Treasury plans to sell its Citigroup investments over the next six to 12 months, but not before the next three months pass.

And Gold heading in opposite direction down to $1106

What was I saying the other day about traders having to be ok with being wrong?

They, traders, do even better not classifying those as "being wrong". I mean, if your trading system produces on average 65 wins for princesses vs 35 wins for frogs, then you dismiss any of those 35 as simply part of your trading system.

It's when your percentage drops below profit-producing (frog invasion) over statistically valid period of time and number of samples, that you must state that the system itself is not sound enough for effective frog control, and start redoing it. Frog eradication is impossible by definition and must not be targeted at all.

I agree with Kucincich. I as an American citizen who has done nothing but obide by the rules, am cooked, baked, finished being a spectator.

If they get away with this, not only do i want to never pay taxes ever again, i want to be paid back all back taxes I have ever paid in full with interest payments.

I believe I would qualify for max unemployment benefits, $505 per week before taxes in NJ. So thats roughly $2,000 per month. Which would direct deposit into my bank. (this is quite odd the prospects of going to DC to protest and be foreclosed on, is more appealing to me than abiding by the rules).

Loose plan:
I stop paying all my bills/mortgage/taxes. Only bill i pay would be my cell phone, to keep my iphone running.
- Mobilize Tri-state new yorkers through multiple Blogs, Twitter, colleges, and flyers at unemployment offices through out the area.
- Set a date of July 1st in Time Sq, to meet as many people who are in
- Walk to DC July 1st. Should take 2 days.

Carry a tent/pillow/lawn chair/iphone/laptop/debit card/passport/citizenship paperwork.

I mean, if you are unemployed, there are no jobs. So what better alternative is there to allocate those weekly checks? I can easily live off of $2000 per month while living in a tent outside 1600 Penn Ave.

Max unemployment amounts by state: http://bit.ly/6ix5At. Mass is $900 per week! thats $46K annual salary!

huh? I am a NJ resident. It would take prob 2 yrs for them to foreclose on me. The residential address would be valid. And unemployment checks are now direct deposited. I have more than 20 friends who are on it now in NJ and NY.

They call in every week to an automated system, pressing numbers identifying they have attempted to find work in the past week. once done, the funds are released direct deposit.

I am unfortunately still employed and paid well. I dont collect unemployment if i quit my job. Thus i am currently pacified.

Vad said - They, traders, do even better not classifying those as "being wrong".

Romeo & Juliet, Act II Scene II:

What’s in a name? that which we call a rose
By any other name would smell as sweet;
So Romeo would, were he not Romeo called...

I know, changing the name from "wrong" to "frog result" helps the ego to avoid making an appearance. Until this moment, however, we did not have a common language for describing - uh - the frog result.

Next time loannetter chides trader-homeowners for acting trader-like about walking away from their mortgages because - well gosh, someone gave them a put and they're just exercising it like any trader would - I can respond instantly with, "it's just a mortgage system frog-result, of which a certain number are to be expected from the bank's trading system."

Do I have that right, Vad?

FRIDAY, JULY 17, 2009

Peter Schiff speaks about his father Irwin Schiff an Income Tax Protestor and Political Prisoner

Irwin Schiff believes that the Income Tax is unconstitutional and should not be paid , he is serving a 13 years jail term because of this Income Tax protest against the IRS ....Peter Schiff is well known for making correct predictions about the failing economy which credits with his knowledge in Austrian economics. During this interview he spoke at length about his dadd Irwin Schiff who led a tax resistance movement before he was put in jail by the federal government. Pete Schiff is currently considering running for the Senate in Connecticut against Chris Dodd.

http://tiny.cc/kKIup

Exactly (or in traderspeak, eqzaktly). "As you name the boat so shall it float". Not sure about last paragraph's reference, I must have missed something... but it doesn't matter.

As long as you expect certain percentage of frogs to remain frogs rendering your kisses wasted - you don't consider every kiss not resulting in prince/princess appearance an error that can and should be eradicated. Thus you stay true to market reality - it's an odds game with no 100% certainty, thus no need to get stubborn and try to squeeze a princess out of each and every frog, thus stops are taken easily, losses are kept well under control and don't cause emotional disturbance.

Nyc.
Why live in Washington D.C. fretting about the guberment.just ignore it. A better protest is to simply go off the grid. Kamiu talks about this all the time. I know a place in Mexico where 10' sets come in daily and all you have to do is be able to climb a tree to get daily nourishment. Squatting in a palm frong hut complete with hammac $25.00 a month. Weather report is only monsoon or no monsoon.Otherwise it's a breezy 80.Plenty of expats already there. Mostly Canadians.Protest the state of things by not participating.
Bob

I would be concerned for a snap back break out.

http://bit.ly/5lt5Za

... but not without four senators pointedly questioning his grip on reality.

http://tinyurl.com/2hu277

.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzrUqAtUcpU

Thx. I am not saying i will be successful. More trying to make a point if America wanted change, it's easily obtainable if they would unify and act as one. We as a population are more fixated on shopping, gossip, entertainment, and fear loss more than want for good change.

We at 20% real unemployment? I guess in due time when this number gets to 50%, it will all crumble on itself anyway.

"Thx. I am not saying i will be successful."

history is written by those who do things that others thought impossible. nevertheless, it might be instructive to set your sights initially on convincing those 20 unemployed friends to go along with your idea. truly, good luck.

ALOHA !!

That is VERY ... GANDHI!!

His tactics was to just not participate and if need be let the British lock up 1 million people, but in so doing who would run the trains or work in the factories. The British Empire quickly understood who was truly in power there! That was pretty much the end of the British Empire after that.

LINK: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohandas_Karamchand_G...

ALOHA !!

NYU posted - "I am unfortunately still employed and paid well. I dont collect unemployment if i quit my job. Thus i am currently pacified."

Anyone who is self employed gets no Unemployment Benefits simply because they never paid in. If I were to close my business I would collect no benefits. It makes you wonder what those self employed entrepreneurs are doing to get by when they close their businesses because they get no STIMULUS and small business is not "shovel ready" especially since "shovel ready" only applies to unions. What does a Mom & Pop non-union business get for voting for Obama?

I belong to the NFIB and they sent me an e-mail stating they were not invited to the Obama Stimulus Summit. So small business is not part of the OBAMA JOB RECOVERY. Now the SBA line item on the US Treasury speaks loudly to that point as there is next to nothing in outlays for the SBA. tell me how can there be a true JOB RECOVERY without small business?

If I were a conspiracy kook I would swear the US government wants to end "small businesses" in America and have us all on welfare towing the MONOPOLY line!

ALOHA !!

PEM-Prior to closing on Dec 14th I bought the 3-1 Rights Issue for 20,000 shares at $0.42AUD. PEM is currently trading at $0.60AUD. This was done to repay the $55MIL to buy back the silver hedge book done when funding was more of a problem, but it appears there was a major participation by the Chinese on the Rights Issue.

SLR-Bought a small handful 5,000 shares at $1.03AUD on the recent correction.

You are right. Interestingly, silver and energy are relatively OK. Still above my stops. Can't say the same thing about miners though. Ouch!

BAC breakdown. No comments needed, chart is self-explanatory.

Bought more at $28.40. I now have a "full" position in FWLT. I have seen lots of bookings, earnings were strong, 1/3 of the market cap is in cash and the stock is only trading at 10 times earnings.

FYI, it's Blackstone, aka Stephen A. Schwarzman and company.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_A._Schwarzman

And the symbol is BX...

VAD, Thanks again for all the set up examples. I am finding them in a few stocks that I am following. One in paticular DTG has been a set up machine this week.Today it had a true C+H I believe, but due to the opposite direction of the market I only put on 25% position of my normal allotment. Is that a smart way to play it? http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=...

To the community I would just like to plug Vad's Tape reading book. The set ups he is talking about for the last couple weeks are simply explained in the book. In a short span of time I am able to see the simple set ups developing in real time. Which is great. I am still a rank amature and need work on entrys and exits(having a better broker would help), but I feel I have a valuable tool kit that will allow me to trade positively in the future with a sense of risk control. Risk control is the number one factor for me.
Bob

Bobbyo,

glad to hear they help. If you mean C&H as indicated on the chart attached, not only it's a valid and nice setup, it also worked like charm. As for position decrease - formation was quite brief, I prefer a bit more pronounced, so yes, I'd keep size down a bit. By how much - hard to tell, I need to see this stock trading real time to form my opinion.

In any case, WTG on getting this setup thingy down

http://bit.ly/8mWIcm

Will there be an investigation? subpeona? Jail? Execution maybe? prob none.

"Too good of an opportunity to miss...buy buy buy!" "If you don't buy you are an idoit" LOL.

We all will know when the bubble economy is over and HB&B is done, when this clown is in jail. He was recently in my neighborhood on a book signing. I should have went to heckle him. but small fish to fry at this point.

Nemo and any others - Can you look at the chart for RMBS please. I'm short this one with an avg cost of $19 - can't wait to cover. I'm a newbie at charts but wondering if the most recent 3 days signify an evening star? Max pain is $19 and wondering if I should cover by the close of tomorrow. Any help on this chart would be greatly appreciated. TIA GH

Substantial corrections in major gold stocks today.

AEM leading the pack with a 10% fall

Anyone think prices getting attractive ..... especially if the PPT hits them tomorrow
for a bearish weekend ??

AEM $54.1 per share
NEM $47.8
GG $37.5

http://www.livestream.com/nyvideo
Event is streaming live now, which I am at now networking, Columbia Univ.

http://bit.ly/8zkdJZ
Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross , who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. , cut holdings of government debt and boosted cash to the most since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed in September 2008.

Shills have been around for centuries. They appeal to the lowest classes who want a cure for the ague or a remedy for poverty. Churches sold dispensations and Marx sold Utopia.

Intrigue the masses or rile them up but like a chain letter, the guy at the top is always the winner. Whoever is able to 'work' the presses, does so with an agenda, usually a self serving one.

In defense of Bernanke, at best he should be in an institution for the criminally insane. At worst? I leave that to the lower reaches of Dante's Inferno. He will be 'paid' expost facto like Bill and Hillary since bribery is too obvious in real time.

The second candle is within and below the first. The body of the second, at a minimum would have to have a close at the top of the first bar's tail/wick. I agree with Fox1 on the 3r bar. The relationship between the 2nd bar and the third bar is acceptable. No, this is not an evening star pattern. I don't know when you entered, but since the highest point above 19, was 19.63 back in October, your stop should have been set for that area.

Every moving average I'm looking at is moving up. RSI is downward, but stochastics haven't confirmed the RSI. Volume is indicative of continuation.

I also concur with Fox1 on the ORCL and RIMM announcements. RMBS is likely to see strong upside tomorrow.

Where, when, and why did you enter this short?

Wonder how this will factor into the dollar going forward, inflationary for US?

"IT is getting harder for governments to buy United States Treasuries because the US's shrinking current-account gap is reducing supply of dollars overseas, a Chinese central bank official said yesterday."

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/?id=423054&ty...

NYUGrad,

BTW, thanks for the heads up.

I didn't sell the bond funds because I believe the data and opinions referred to in the Bloomberg/Gross article...

1. "... economists say U.S. gross domestic product will grow enough in 2010 to lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates"

2. "Treasuries are overvalued compared to potential inflation"

3. "...unemployment rate fell to 10 percent in November from a 26-year high of 10.2%"

and certainly don't believe, "The U.S. economy will recover and there is a possibility of a rate hike."

I sold because those in control may actually believe such fairy tales and react as if they were the truth.

I am still in the deflation camp until the American consumer is secure enough to want to borrow and buy once again. We need 130,000 new jobs per month just to meet the demand by new entries into the job market. The drop below 10% was simply due to a bit of yardstick adjustment a smokepot or two.

If they do raise rates prematurely, we will see a lot of bargain stocks — some with dividends rivaling or better than bond interest, IMO.