Bill Cara’s Morning Call
[7:22am ET] Boxing Day Specials are all about spending money to purchase goods manufactured mostly in foreign lands, so it is appropriate for us to discuss today the screw up in the international money system and how it will likely lead to global trade war in 2010. I have been writing about this problem since 2005. Here is a blog of mine on September 22, 2006, with Gold trading at $579.50/oz.
I have said this for at least a year now. The imbalance and extreme volatility of currency markets is the most serious problem the world faces. Solving that problem will help solve others, like addressing the urgent issues of poverty and health.
But until that happens, there will be excessive money printed by all nations, and Gold will rally in a secular Bull trend. If you wish to be a cynic and say that such a General Agreement on Currencies will never happen again, and that Gold will go to $1,000, $2,000, $4,000, $10,000, or whatever, that is your prerogative. You can even be a cheerleader if you wish, just don't count me in the group.
I do believe that prudent leaders of the world's economic elite will resolve their differences sooner than later because they understand the consequences. They only have so much Gold in their possession; some like Canada have none, after having sold it all.
When all the govt gold is sold to private owners, then central bankers will have lost their ability to use the precious metal as a monetary policy and control instrument. At that point the world will have in effect a gold standard because any excess printing of paper money from that point will immediately be factored into lower market prices for that currency.
A lot is being written these days about central bank gold sales. I think more should be written about the need to get a global agreement on currencies. Once the latter happens, the world business and economic paradigm can normalize.
http://www.billcara.com/archives/2006/09/watching_the_go.html
Now the issue has been put front and center by Martin Wolf, associate editor and chief economics commentator of the Financial Times:
http://www.business24-7.ae/Articles/2009/12/Pages/26122009/12272009_b60d...
Martin Wolf is an esteemed economist and journalist who wrote “Why Globalization Works”. His latest book is “Fixing Global Finance: How to Curb Financial Crises in the 21st Century”.
http://leighbureau.com/speaker.asp?id=272
You can read many other articles on this subject at the website of the Single Global Currency Association:
http://www.singleglobalcurrency.org/articles-non-aca.html
You can also read of the many times I raised this issue.
Here are older archive listings from BillCara.com for “general agreement on currencies”:
These are the current archives (CaraCommunity.com) for “general agreement on currencies”:
For the record, I think that Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) will, as long as it controls the Federal Reserve Bank of the U.S., counter every political move toward a global central bank and single global currency. After all, China, Japan, Russia, and many other jurisdictions, would never allow a few private bankers at HB&B to control their monetary system; so rather than join a global system, HB&B will be content to control the U.S. system, which is set up to unfairly advantage HB&B banks.
As to the viability of a single monetary system and regulator, you simply have to look at the present situation in the EU with respect to Greece (and Italy and…) to see it doesn’t work well. So a global system would be that much worse. I oppose it.
What I do think might work is a system of three regional central banks: (i) Europe, Middle East and Africa, (ii) the Americas, and (iii) Asia-Pacific. The UK should be compelled to join either the EU or the Americas, and Russia a member of either the European or Asia-Pacific central bank. Each regional central bank would have representation on its board of directors from the other two so that problems like Greece are not allowed to get out of control.
As to how to “fix global finance”, you all know that I have been saying for years it is not a difficult proposition: simply separate the financial system (credit based) from the capital market system (asset based). Every system needs to serve a single master, with its integrity maintained via an uncompromisable regulator. HB&B in their demand for power has destroyed any possibility of integrity their conflict of interest based structure.
The world spends (and wastes) so much precious time engineering solutions that serve those who are in control rather than to meet the needs of those who are users.
In any event, this is the biggest problem facing the world today, and you all need to think about it.
CTA Trading Desk Report
Being on vacation, this report will not be published.
Comments
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.
DEBT DERIVATIVES
ALOHA !!
I agree that the current monetary system is not sustainable.
No matter what currency you chose or what sort of central bank arrangement you make nothing will be resolved so long as global currencies remain "debt derivatives", paper backed by debt. To me there is no difference between a MBS and a US Dollar. Both are based on debt. All global governments do now is issue more new debt to pay just the interest on past accumulated debt. Its a debt merry-go-round.
Those who control debt issuance are those in power. Their power is based solely on the "human condition". What human alive would not abuse a printing press(counterfeit money) in order to retain power? So are we to trust our financial futures to the likes of Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner? Obviously not, since they both have been at this "game" all their lives. They did not spend a life time to achieve their power and then just give it up voluntarily. The current monetary system has no "brakes" or steering wheel. We need a commodity backed money, at the very minimum, to create a "store of value" not a "store of debt". Without such money our individual accumulated wealth is being destroyed at a voracious rate.
The first Roman silver coins were minted(269BC) at the Temple of Juno Moneta located on Capitoline Hill. Isn't it amazing we go from the Roman word "Moneta" which means "mint" and is now called "money" in modern times. So, in Rome we had the Roman government creating "Moneta on Capitoline Hill" in 269BC to Washington DC creating "Money on Capital Hill" in 2009AD! Nothing new under the Sun!
Nothing new under the Sun!
Those who do not learn from history... Well, you all know the rest.
Globalization: A recently coined term for what has always been. Have sound bites totally replaced thinking? Queen Isabella sent Columbus out not to establish a new vacation mecca, but in search of treasure in another part of the globe.
Bill's call for some sort of global currency reform is reasonable, but throughout history emotion has usually trumped reason.
The front page headline in our local paper today — "Customers key to our Retail Business" — The subhead points out that... other area communities may be "siphoning off our customers". Another article tells that retail jobs have fallen in 2009. A revelation? Hardly, but our national trade imbalance was to be expected when "globalization" became the main theme for our "New Economy".
Anyone with an ounce of imagination would have known that global flattening (Thomas Friedman listen up!) would mean a lowering of the US life style.
If we don't come to some sort of global agreement on currency and trade we are increasingly in danger of the easier historical solution, WAR!
Here we are now blaming nearby communities for the loss of our businesses and jobs. How long before the US (and other countries) begin to do the same? What politician will admit past policies were to blame when the simple way to put everyone to work is to just blow up the competition? (Not conducive to a better lifestyle for millions.)
We need to push for an international agreement on trade and a moratorium on currency debasement.
wealth and health
relative sisters of fate wealth and health.
perhaps we spend too much time comparing our wealth and health to others that both seem lacking at a time when in a global and long term view are booming across the planet.
we need to remember that people in G7 and BRIC nations are living decades longer than their ancestors of just a few generations ago, have avoided large scale global conflicts for over 60 years, posses goods and living spaces that our grandparents would have only dreampt of, a fraction of women now die giving childbirth, an even smaller fraction of children die from pneumonia, small pox, polio, malaria and TB, people are living into their 70's and 80's at astonishing rates in relative comfort copmared to just a few generations ago.
even in the poorest european states racked with poverty and oppression, literacy rates across the globe are astronomically higher now than ever, with most of the improvement occuring in the past 75 year compared to 10,000 years of written word.
while still meager pensions and wages are reality for many we forget that a washing machine, dishwashing machine, TV, phone, stereo and annual vacation which are now standard even in lower-middle class homes were for a long time the domain of the well off.
what we call "poor" in the US is by no means poor for much of the world. its good that people of all political and social castes are more open to discuss the plight of the "poor" in the western nations and elsewhere, its something that 100 or so years ago was limited to a few religious and ideologues while the remaining educated class rarely discussed it, and if they did they blamed the poor for their problems and at best offered pittance and occasional pity at christmas time. the poor have been treated as untouchable for most of our existance on this earth.
while we spend much time considering out plight, our problems and our woes, we often forget not just these developments that now seem the norm, no we also forget that when people say that other nations are catching up or setting up to exceed the US and europe, we are essentially saying its not about how much we have but how much relative wealth we posses to others. herein lies our greatest error.
western philosophy and intellectual thought has a long standing 600 history of liberalism, something very unique to global thinking. asian traditions have their own fantastic contributions as well, but i believe no other intellectual tradition has been as capable at articulating the rights of man and his place on earth as an individual as those which originated in europe before and after the renaissance. that being said, taking this concept in mind, lets be reminded, that the wealth of other nations and cultures that have never enjoyed the kind of prosperity we are all too familiar with in the western world is a good thing for all of us. it may mean that americans as a relative share of the pie have less, but they still have much. and they no longer exist in a world that is perversely skewed to one side where millions have so much and billions have so little.
yes that might mean less William Sonoma's and pottery barns because people just dont have the excess $$ to spend it on velvet and silver laced throw pillows, but that might be a good thing because that was never really what prosperity and community was ever really about. so when we talk of chineese prosperity we should think less of how they will overtake us, or assume dominance over us, and instead think of how they and others will join us in relative stability, prosperity and hope of raising a family without the constant threat of disease, famine and poverty. if that means i can only afford a 2002 honda civic instead of the 2006 because thats whats fair, not because of a falsely imposed trade embargo designed to falsely support pricey manufacturing jobs in canada, then so be it.
trying to guage the security systems
the one that I am looking for is Alog... seeing if market will take back toward $ 36.60... they do a lot of overseas air terminals, having signed some good sized contracts in the more risky zones...
Just as WFT was hammered for a few months, and reaced the
$ 15's, so it could go for VLO... Could it be taken down to the $ 13's ? Goodness, would that be an opportunity not seen in quite some time ?
Re: wealth and health
I lived thru this utopia for 30 years. As every utopia it has failed miserably. Even if we do not like it, there are historical, cultural, and environmental reasons while all countries are different with different living standards. Probably these standards will change over time, but evolutionary, not jump-starting by "robbing" developed countries; as all developed countries eventually will fail (historically, none are too-big-to fail) when become too comfortable and will be replaced by more daring ones.
Unfortunately, I think that it may be time for US to split into separate entities sometime over the next decade and it makes the case for Gold. All 2009 I played SDS only (short-term) and never made a losing trade. Sometimes I could not calculate a correct timing and had to wait for the price "to come to me". I plan to maintain the same strategy for 2010 as well, until and if the political stability prevails, which I do not expect. As a word of caution: I have no formal education in economics.
This weekend's event's could see
the fast money moving into the bio-terror plays... There are several trading in a flat range now... a few are below $ 1.00, and as Bill requested, I will not list any, due to the extreme volatility that is inherent in these trades. But, I am buying a few this week..
Re: wealth and health
I think that it may be time for US to split into separate entities sometime over the next decade and it makes the case for Gold.
Likelihood: .001%
But nice work trading SDS. ;)
Re: wealth and health
Dr. Cosa & leont,
I agree more people have been gaining longer lives and better conditions. There was no need to rob developed countries, but it has been the people who had the most who have done just that.
CEO pay and benefits have gotten way out of line compared to the average worker. So have pay and benefits for our "public servants" both elected and bureaucratic. Recent reports show a major increase in federal employees with 6-figure income and public pensions are now breaking the local budget here.
The exporting of well paying manufacturing jobs has NOT been beneficial to the average foreign worker either. (Read "Who will tell the people?" by William Greider) We are now seeing a shortage of machinists after using both a carrot and a stick to force such into early retirement for two decades. (We should have exported CEOs and Congressmen.)
"Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the Consent of the Governed, that whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these Ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute a new Government..."
The Declaration of Independence July 4, 1776
Re: wealth and health
Congress is debating a bill to increase the number of H1b passports. An H1b passport is one in which is designed to help industry by allowing them to bring in workers from foreign countries when the United States doesn't have enough skilled workers to fill their positions. The H1b is exploited by most corporations they bring in foreign lawers, doctors, nurses, computer programers and a host of other skilled jobs. They do this by advertising available jobs in newspapers or journals we don't read. When the job is not filled in a reasonable time they can bring foreign workers in with an H1b passport which is not even a green card. This allows them to bring lower cost labor to the United States and allows them to keep wages for all workers low.
Crack spread holding the 200 day....
.....
Re: wealth and health
Instead of increasing H1b numbers we should just be charging $XX,000 per person for green cards, and put the money to the deficit instead of into lawyers and corporate pockets.
The only reason for H1b visa's is to be able to bring people in that are expected to work harder for 1/2 the cost. Once upon a time I filled out the forms and wrote the ads for a client that did this, and when it came time for year end raises and bonuses it became obvious that these people were really expected to act like indentured servants.
PS: The ads were intentionally worded and salary level set such that no American would have the qualifications, and if they did, the salary level was set sufficiently low that they wouldn't want the job. End result, very few applicants, and all easily weeded out except the H1b candidate.
Re: wealth and health and H1(b) visas
The H1(b) employing is cutting into the jobs which US grads apply for. Employers can now get a foreign person with an advanced degree for the same or less than a BA or BS grad.
It has also deflated the income for some US workers or making a higher degree a liability, since they are expected to want more pay. Two recent hires where my oldest son works have Masters and Doctorate degrees and are working for entry level salaries.
Bill Gates has been one to exploit these visas big time and has successfully lobbied for an increase in the number allowed.
This is something a serious Director of Homeland Security would try to prevent.
Market doesn't like it:
Monday, December 28, 2009 2:00:45 PM
Fed proposes amendments to Reserve Requirements for Deposit institutions; allows establishment of term deposit facility; with no implications on monetary policy decisions in short term
- term deposit maturities will not exceed 1 year's time; with most likely maturity at 1-6 months
- Federal Reserve Banks would offer interest-bearing term deposits to eligible institutions through an auction mechanism. Term deposits would be one of several tools that the Federal Reserve could employ to drain reserves
Re: Market doesn't like it:
Sure it's the largest negative move I've seen in a week. I think we dropped, what, 3 SPX points in 25 minutes? The sad thing is, I actually got excited at the thought of Something Happening. Thanks for telling us what caused it.
Re: wealth and health
I agree with your statement. I just wanted to add that I believe reckless consumption(SUVs,subprime mortgages,credit card debt etc..)especially in the past few decades has caused alot of problems. There is a lack of social conscience that pervades or society here in America. Too many people are not self-reflecting the consequences of there consumptive behavior. Inevitably this behavior has been a major part of the reason we are in the global financial (as well as environmental) mess we are in now. I agree a rising living standard in China and the rest of the developing world is good. I know the developing world wants to have a living standard like America. I just hope there will be more of an awareness in the developing world on the powerful impact that there consumer behavior will have on this globe we all live on.
just my 2 cents
Regional Central Banks
Re. creation of regional central banks. This could be quite difficult too. For example, the regional bank of the Americas: While Canada and the US are aligned, many countries in Latin America are moving to opposite economic and political sides. Brazil now does most of its trade now with China, not with the U.S. Br. owns hundreds of billions of US debt (unless they were swapped for IMF SDRs, the ones India swapped for gold, but we digress). Who knows, they might cut their losses soon but they desperately need a new currency benchmark as the USD collapsed 40% this year alone.
US/Canada are better aligned with some Euro countries, but then we'd would be back at dividing into developed nations versus the rest of the world. If there is a universal solution for currencies I just have a hard time seeing it. Countries might be better off developing their own partnerships (e.g., Br/China), which is the way it seems to be going already.
As for Canada, after snubbing China in recent years it has no ready solution to its currency woes it seems.
Fed balance sheet
Monday, December 28, 2009 4:30:31 PM
(US) Fed balance sheet liabilities $2.22T v 2.22T prior; M2 +$3.5B, M1 -$1.7B
- M2 52 week change 5.0% v 5.4% priro, M1 11.1% v 12% prior
- Fed holdings of agency debt $160B v $158B prior
- Fed holdings of MBS $910B v $901B prior
- Fed central bank swap lines $12.1B v $14.5B prior
- Foreign central bank holdings of US Treasures -$1.4B to $2.2T, agency debt -$3.6B to $769B
EPA gone wild
More natural trace products are declared pollutants. They may be a bit more toxic than CO2 though.
http://farmfutures.com/blogs.aspx?fcb=23&fcbp=1017...
Re: Fed balance sheet
ALOHA !!
Well Vad, why would the US FED or any other foreign central banks need to add agency debt when the US Taxpayer is now the prime buyer? I posted this last night on the subject of a new US Treasury Daily Statement line item. This is where the "NIBP"(New Issue Bond Program)comes into play. I would term the NIBP and TCLP just more "backdoor" bailouts for banks struggling with toxic assets, even though Geithner touts it as a benefit for "working families". Here he says this: "This initiative is critical to helping working families maintain access to affordable rental housing and homeownership in tough economic times." This is one big con job where more and more debt is used to buy "time". It should be called PRICE FIXING.
GSE OBLIGATIONS/HFA INITIATIVE
I will shed NEW LIGHT on the Sprott investigation as there is a NEW line item on the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT that just appeared on Dec 23rd. This NEW LINE ITEM is entitled "GSE OBLIGATIONS/HFA INITIATIVE". On its first day it blasted right past Food Stamps by over $7BIL USD.
HFA? Here it is ...
HFA Initiative Promotes Affordable Housing Efforts
By AUSTIN KILGORE
October 19, 2009 1:30 PM CST
The Obama Administration announced a new initiative to encourage low mortgage rates and expand resources for low- and middle-income borrowers to purchase or rent affordable housing by promoting lending by state and local housing finance agencies (HFAs).
The HFA Initiative consists of two programs — the New Issue Bond Program (NIBP) and the Temporary Credit and Liquidity Program (TCLP).
“This initiative is critical to helping working families maintain access to affordable rental housing and homeownership in tough economic times,” said Treasury secretary Tim Geithner. “Through the years, many low and moderate income Americans have been well served by state and local HFAs, but the housing downturn has hit these organizations too.”
Geithner added: “Through this initiative, the Administration aims to help HFAs jumpstart new lending to borrowers who might not otherwise be served and to better support the financing costs of their current programs – key components in stabilizing the housing market overall.”
The NIBP will provide temporary financing for HFAs to issue new mortgage revenue bonds, according to a joint statement by the US Treasury, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). The Treasury — under authority granted by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA) — will purchase Fannie Mae (FNM: 1.05 0.00%) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 1.26 0.00%) securities backed by the bonds.
The NIBP will support “several hundred thousand” new mortgages to first-time homebuyers, as well as refinancing for “at-risk, but responsible and performing borrowers” and funding for the development of “tens of thousands” of new rental housing units, according to the release.
In the TCLP, Fannie and Freddie will provide replacement credit and liquidity facilities available to HFAs to reduce the costs of maintaining existing HFA financing. The program aims to relieve financial strains on the HFAs, and the Treasury — again under HERA authority — will “backstop” the facilities by purchasing an interest in them.
Local HFAs are already applauding the initiative as a way to encourage consumer demand for housing.
“Combined with our state-funded down payment assistance, qualified first time homebuyers will be able to take advantage of historically low sales prices on homes in Florida,” said Steve Auger, executive director of the Florida Housing Finance Corporation. “The addition of these new, qualified homebuyers will help reduce the huge inventory of homes that are on the market due to the foreclosure crisis and help to stabilize declining home values throughout the state.”END
So its all tied to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bailouts, which in turn is yet another bailout for US banks who are member banks of the US FED ... Does anyone here believe this is all for the hard hit "US homeowner" and those "disadvantaged citizens"?
Both GSE and HFA are in the most simplistic economic terms "PRICE FIXING"! The flood of "initiatives" and new programs and departments on Capital Hill is indicative of a sinking ship, where every hole is plugged by more and more debt. US INCOME TAX is virtually useless in its ability to repay debt or to balance spending. I calculated that there is enough "total" US DEBT issued so far this FY 2010(three months time) to pay every person on Earth approximately $1800 USD.
As Mises stated back in 1939, there are really only two choices ... GOVERNMENT or FREE MARKETS? You cannot have both at the same time and there is no third or fourth choice. What we now have is GOVERNMENT! We have not seen truly "free markets" in America since 1913 in my opinion. In simplistic layman's terms "free" means "allowed to fail without intervention".
TWAS THE NIGHT BEFORE
ALOHA!!
Twas the night before Christmas when no creature was storing other than that the US TREASURY DEBT MONSTER! Another $93BIL stocking stuffer reported at the US Treasury Daily Statement for December 24th! Don't these guys ever sleep?
Okay, I keep reading how the US FED is buying up all these US Treasury "Bonds" from pundits of all sizes and shapes and there is clearly NO EVIDENCE that is happening on any thing close to a "massive" scale. Here is the breakdown of US DEBT(marketable) US Treasury issues per the US Treasury Daily Statment of Dec 24.
SHORT TERM ONE YEAR OR LESS
Regular Series Bills = $1.284TRIL
CMB Series = $77BIL USD
TWO YEAR TO TEN YEAR
Notes = $448.3BIL
TWENTY YEAR OR THIRTY YEAR
Bonds = $43.1BIL
Clearly long term, aka "LONG BOND", US DEBT is not popular at all. The opposite is the case as the ONE YEAR OR LESS Bills are being issued at a rate exceeding $2TRIL in three months time(since Oct 1, 2009)for FY 2010. The TWO YEAR TO TEN YEAR maturity comes in a distant 2nd place and the LONG BOND is way far away in a very distant 3rd place! So when I hear a pundit throw out a number like the US FED is "buying $76BIL in Bonds today", then someone better tell the US Treasury to issue more Bonds as they have only issued $43.1BIL so far. Or is it these pundits do not know the difference between a Bond and a Note or a Bill? Sometimes I wonder ...
Tyrannosaurus Debt
Here's one for you Kaimu: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mfMG66LtVU
Seriously, though, how have you played the market differently with the knowledge you have gained by your study of the Government? Has it improved your odds and where have you found the most bang for your buck as far as your attention to data is concerned?
Seems GS is being worked down to that $ 151 - $ 157 gap
which happened in July, but was established in early June..
VIX- Option pricing
I looks like that options on volatility VIX are being seriously underpriced. The June 10 30 VIXFF has a bid of 2.35 and an ask of 2.75. Black-Scholes indicates a theoretical value of 4.279. Other options are apparently also underpriced. Any spike in the market could cause unusual gains: Or Mr. Market is projecting a slow bull with vol droping next year.
Any ideas on how best to play this?
Thanks
Tax Withholding - Matt Trivisonno
He's back after a hiatus caused by Karl Denninger not crediting his valuable chart linked below. His revised blog shows more payroll data and it ain't pretty ... payroll tax collection remains off a cliff (to Q3 09) ... but the economy is recovering, isn't it? Isn't it?!
http://tinyurl.com/yz9km6u
Ag article...
... http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/features-and-int...
Re: Tax Withholding - Matt Trivisonno
Looks flatlined to me at 10% under a year ago.
That would also imply, to a thinking person, that the REAL GDP has dropped 10% from a year ago.
Re: Tyrannosaurus Debt
ALOHA !!
All the US Treasury Daily Statement represents is a road map for the US government flow of debt. Wherever the largest debt flows are is where the most inefficient and unproductive money flows are. For instance Defense is a given, but I see debt flows increasing to Defense so a good play would be Lockheed Martin-LMT, which I have mentioned here before. Notice that instead of using the word "money" for "money flows" I am using the word "debt" and calling it what it really is which are "debt flows". Money in America is debt. The government issues debt through the US Treasury.
Debt issuances are increasing not decreasing so that effects the US Dollar. I have already pointed out my strategy a hundred times here. Back when I saw the first downturn in tax revenues using the Trivisonno chart in Q4 2008 I started to enter anti-Dollar trades. What would falling tax revenues signal? Rising debt flows is the answer. I knew I wanted to be on the ASX so I started trading in my US Dollars for Australian Dollars. I posted here back then that I was waiting for a confirmation in Q1 2009 and it did confirm so I piled in to ASX PM shares and AUD.
All that the US Treasury and tax revenues do for me now is to confirm a longer term trend rate in the destruction of the US Dollar value. There is no value in debt. If there were then AIG and FNM would be where XOM is today. Please don't look at the current AIG share price without dividing by 20(reverse split) first when comparing to XOM.
I cannot do anything about the daily interventions going on in all the global markets, especially the US markets. Knowing that the government will always fudge data to look good I can only conclude that the US Treasury Daily Statement must be the tip of the iceberg of government fraud, because there is no way the US Treasury looks good even when its "managed" to look good. At some point there just is no "look good" left. We are there ...
From a technical aspect US tax revenues are off a cliff and that is reflected by all the US State treasuries as well. When 49 states are in financial crisis what else can one extrapolate from the data? Many would say that we're at the bottom, but I see no confirmation from the US Treasury that the bottom is in. How can the bottom be in when 2009 Unemployment benefit outlays are 250% higher than 2008. The longer the Unemployment outlays stagnate and increase, which they are rising, the lower the unemployment rate will go. This only raises the cost for PRICE FIXING across the board at all government levels.
The S&P and Moodys are stalling and truly will only downgrade US DEBT after the fact. That means I must make my own ratings using what data I am allowed. I truly believe that the US Treasury Daily Statement as a source for data is "under the radar" in the mainstream media so I believe the US Treasury lets slip into the Daily Statement what they fear to in the mainstream media. There have been many data points in the mainstream media that have been contradicted by the US Treasury Daily Statement. Sometimes I have to back into conclusions but I never liked to be "spoon fed" my reality by the likes of CNBC.
When you trade a stock like GS or GE you are just trading US Dollars. There are two values at work, one for the value of the underlying company and the other for the value of the money your trade is denominated in. When you cash out you do not own GS or GE you own US Dollars and in reality you never owned GS or GE in the first place. In effect GS and GE are "money multipliers", but the underlying truth is that as long as you own a US Dollar you own debt and nothing more. You own the "liability" that debt is. In truth you own "liability", because debt is never an asset on a Balance Sheet is it? Hence you trade "liabilities" ... DEBT DERIVATIVES.
Where bills go to die.........
The tentacles of the financial lobby are firmly entrenched in Washington:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/29/the-cash-...
This is brutal.
Re: Tax Withholding - Matt Trivisonno
Dr. Strangelove,
The fed won't need to collect payroll taxes from employers anymore, since they have become the hirer of the largest sector and will soon employ everyone.
They will have "huge savings" from the government Heath Care jam job which will finance all.
Right?
Of course the unfunded mandate may become a problem for those states whose representatives didn't sell out like Nebraska's Ben Nelson.
Anyone know which insurance companies stand to gain the most?