Bill Cara’s Morning Call
At 2:30am ET, the U.S. Dollar started to lift, and stocks on most international exchanges started to sell off. There are some, like Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyd’s Bank that are getting more bail-out money from the UK government that are up, but that’s a different story.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9C1VMOG1.htm
At 6:30am ET, the $USD is trading higher, by +0.43% on the day, at 75.585, a key resistance level. Next resistance appears to be around 76.5 and then 77.5. If, as and when these levels are taken out as the Dollar firms, there is likely to be a pull-back in equity prices.
Presently, the DJIA Dec futures are down -57 and the S&P 500 down -7.7. So, with US equity futures down, UK and Europe equity prices down, Jan. Crude Oil ($WTIC) down -0.58 (-0.72%) to 79.52, gold down about -$8 and silver down about -20 cents, and weather futures down -0.86% (seriously), the outlook for today is cloudy with a chance of rain.
Is there a silver lining in that cloud? Maybe Bloomberg has the answer. From 10 to 11 p.m. ET this evening, GATA Chairman Bill Murphy will be the guest on Bloomberg TV Asia's "Asia Confidential" program with moderator Bernard Lo. Try to watch. If you don’t have Bloomberg on cable, you can watch over the Internet.
By the way; internet access functionality is being built into TV’s now. Within maybe five years, the majority of TV’s will actually be computer monitors and the convergence of broadcast media and interactive media, including telephony, will be complete. The implications are huge.
As you know, the Internet is the People’s Network.
Have a great day.
CTA Trading Desk Report
Down from the opening bell, equities succumbed to aggressive profit-taking after Merrill Lynch downgraded the entire semi-conductor space sending bellwhethers Intel (INTC –4.22%) and Texas Instruments (TXN –3.38%) spiraling downward, with high-beta institutional favorites Goldman Sachs (GS -2.30%) and Apple (AAPL –2.65%) quickly following suit.
Continuing a recent trend, the Russell 2000 (IWM -2.46%) was by far the weakest index, with money managers preferring to park cash in blue-chip stocks Wal-Mart (WMT +0.72%), Coca Cola (KO +0.53%), and Merck (MRK +0.54%). The Russell peaked in mid-October, unable to surpass that level while the Dow and the S&P set new 2009 highs earlier this week; clearly big money is preparing for some retrenchment, taking profits in their riskier positions, shifting excess cash into stodgier multi-national company stocks.
A large gap lower after an extended run is always a red flag, a possible sign of exhaustion. Senior traders will be taking next week off, so it may be premature to expect fireworks over the next few days. With the thought of year-end bonuses dancing about their heads, however, it won’t take much prodding for traders to push the button to lock in gains, and helping them forget about the tumultuous times of the prior year.
One interesting anomaly today; despite the S&P futures being down about 20 points at 10am ET, the body of the 5-minute bar from 9:55 to 10:00am nearly contained the entire range for the rest of the day until buy-on-close programs nudged the S&P slightly above the upper boundary. Very strange price action; a frenzied sell-off morphing into a lifeless, indifferent trade, drifting aimlessly for the remainder of the session. Perhaps money managers (actual human beings) had the urge to purge as volume surged during the intense 30-minute sell-off, before robots (black box computer driven strategies) took control for the balance of the day.
Once again, a large down opening was met with buying; the Bears fumbled for the umpteenth time as the market was unable to record a pure trend day down. No matter how resolutely you believe the advance is nearing an end and about to reverse, disciplined traders will await confirmation before committing precious capital to the short side. There will be plenty of time to ring the register on the short side once the tide has definitely turned.
Have a great evening.
Comments
Jobless Claims surprise?
So this morning at 830 we have the Jobless Claims number. Prior is 502k, and the estimate for this period is 504k, even though the jobless claims have been slowly shrinking since the peak in Feb 2009, and last week's number had fallen by 12k over the previous week. Simply extending the trend down would give us 490k.
To me it feels like we're being set up to "surprise to the upside" (er, I mean, downside) to have some surprise good news here. Whether it will move prices is anyone's guess, but with the market down 9 SPX points going into the report, it feels quite possible to me that "surprise good news" might end up lifting the market a trifle. We'll know in 20 minutes, but I'm certainly not getting more short in advance of the report...
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 505K V 504KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 5.61M V 5.598KE
- Prior Initial Claims revised from 502K to 505K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised from 5.631M to 5.65M
- Four-week mvg avg initial claims at 514 v 519.8K prior
Jobless Claims - 505K
Released on 11/19/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk11/14, 2009
Prior 502 K
Consensus 504 K
Consensus Range 500 K to 520 K
Actual 505 K
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims fell 12,000 in the November 7 week to a level of 502,000. The four-week average showed the progress that's underway, down 4,500 to 519,750 for the lowest level since last November. Continuing claims extended their long downward trend, falling a very large 139,000 to 5.631 million. Though some of this improvement may reflect new hiring, much of it unfortunately reflects the expiration of benefits. The number receiving extended benefits fell 28,243 to a level of 523,061, while those receiving emergency compensation rose more than 20,000 to 3.52 million
Re: Jobless Claims surprise?
After unemployement data released, which is in line with estimate, crude oil jumps 0.59 to 79.28 and gold jumps $5 from $1134 to $1139
Re: Jobless Claims - 505K
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits held at a 10-month low last week, a sign firings are letting up as the economy recovers.
Initial jobless claims were unchanged at 505,000 in the week ended Nov. 14, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance dropped in the prior week, while those getting extended payments jumped.
The loss of 7.3 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the biggest drop of any postwar economic slump, makes an acceleration in firings less likely as consumers begin to spend. A rebound in hiring may take longer to develop as companies have ample room to boost hours for current employees before taking on additional staff.
“Job losses are moderating,” Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors Inc. in Holland, Pennsylvania, said before the report. Even so, “businesses have some room to expand without hiring lots of new employees.”
Jobless claims were estimated to increase to 504,000 from 502,000 initially reported for the prior week, according to the median forecast of 42 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 485,000 to 550,000.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.8 percent at 8:33 a.m. in New York. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 1 basis point to 3.35 percent.
Due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Nov. 26, the Labor Department said it will issue the next claims report on Nov. 25.
Survey Week
Today’s numbers represent claims from the survey week for nonfarm payrolls, and will be closely watched for signals on job losses in November, economists said. There were 531,000 claims filed in last month’s survey week.
The Labor Department will release the November jobs report on Dec. 4. The economy lost 190,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent, the highest level since 1983.
The report showed the four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, fell to 514,000 last week, the lowest level in a year, from 520,500.
Continuing claims fell by 39,000 in the week ended Nov. 7 to 5.61 million. They were forecast to drop to 5.59 million.
The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs. Today’s report showed the number of people who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting extended payments jumped by about 119,000 to 4.16 million in the week ended Oct. 31.
Benefits Extended
President Barack Obama on Nov. 6 signed into law a plan to extend jobless benefits, expand a tax credit for first-time homebuyers, and provide tax refunds to money-losing companies. The measure also gives jobless people as many as 20 additional weeks of unemployment assistance.
A Labor Department official said today’s figures don’t reflect the new extension and it may take until mid December for the complete readings to become available.
The President has also announced plans to convene a jobs summit at the White House next month.
The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, held at 4.3 percent in the week ended Nov. 7.
Forty-eight states and territories reported an increase in claims, while five reported a decrease. These data are reported with a one-week lag.
Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and tend to rise as job growth -- measured by the monthly non-farm payrolls report -- slows.
Additional Firings
Electronic Arts Inc., the second-largest video-game publisher, is among companies still cutting staff. The Redwood City, California-based company this month said it’ll eliminate 1,500 jobs and close several facilities after reporting its 11th straight quarterly loss.
Some companies are using other means to reduce labor costs. Reed Smith LLP, the 16th highest grossing U.S. law firm, said it will cut salaries for incoming associates by 20 percent.
“In response to our clients’ feedback and concerns about driving down the cost of legal services, we wanted to send a clear message that we are listening,” firm managing partner Gregory Jordan said in a statement on Nov. 10. Reed Smith has offices in cities including Pittsburgh, London and New York.
Re: Jobless Claims - 505K
IMO, Anything over 425k = No Recovery
There are just too many small businesses folding. Those people aren't elegible to signup, and therefore aren't counted either for the purposes of claims or jobs lost/gained.
I was at a small ethnic grocery that I get cheeses and olives from the other day. The woman at the checkout was crying and I asked her if she was ok. She told me business was less than 1/2 of what it was 2 yrs ago, and that they were in trouble. My guess is its just the husband and wife, and maybe some kids working part time. New jobs for them will be impossible to come by, and I would bet they have their savings sunk into that store. On the bright side, they won't need to work from 7am till 9pm anymore, and will probably not have to worry about the mortgage on their house much longer.
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
WFMI - Upgraded to Outperform @ BMO
Re: *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:
My initial question is with people supposedly dropping off the roles, would this be a negative surprise in reality...as if reality is what we actually have to begin with or is that end with? I am confused, as most are or should be.
Top watch
So far the best evidence I found we are close to the top (but not ruling out a final meltup) are the long term bullish % charts from:
http://tinyurl.com/yarmeke
Every chart mimics the spring 2004 formation, except for BPUTIL.
Any comments?
Edit: inserted tinyURL
" Wages have stabilized .. people are lucky to have a job "..
CEO of Autonation, Mike Jackson... Well, that's just peachy...Wonder what the individual debt levels will look like next year ? Fear is a great motivation, but what happens when people just give up ?
Cara 100 Update
INTC - Downgraded to Neutral @ BOA/Merrill Lynch
Looks like something just came unstuck
The indexes are rolling over hard in early going on volume. This reversal may, finally and at long last, be for real. But the day is young and we'll have to wait and see if the inevitable bounce has any conviction.
Re: Jobless Claims - 505K
Don't worry cheapy. There is a first for everything.
And this era we live in now will go in text books as "The Recovery-less Recovery"
Re: Jobless Claims - 505K
"Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits held at a 10-month low last week, a sign firings are letting up as the economy recovers."
Hmmm, maybe?
Or, could it be you simply can't field a team with fewer players?
Locally we've had companies rotate layoffs so employees can get unemployment, then call them back and lay off another group.
At one construction company employees agreed to kick in money from the retirement fund to pay wages, prevent more layoffs and have enough people to take on the larger projects when available.
Life is never as simple as media portray it.
Re: Jobless Claims - 505K
There's 2,300 AOL employees who would disagree that "firings are letting up".
http://tinyurl.com/yan3p86
Re: Jobless Claims - 505K
It don't matter.
You can have GE with 10 total employees and the markets would see this as great news. 10 people building all their plants, plane engines, and lightbulbs. zenith productivity cheered by wall st.
On the flip side, I can now easily get seats on the ny subway & flag down a cab at any hour. For a new yorker growing up here, the city is a relative ghost town. hurry up and get those cruise passengers to come to nyc to spend spend spend.
http://bit.ly/38rAZD
Your Tax Dollar At Work
Stimulus money creating jobs in nonexistent congressional districts:
http://tinyurl.com/yaqo5ph
http://tinyurl.com/yzklbhk
Re: Your Tax Dollar At Work
Not to worry...They are using nonexistent money.
Best of all, I think there is only a nonexistent political benefit.
The American public is beginning to wake up and if they weren't so busy just trying to get through the day there would be more protesting.
When they have absolutely no hope of selling the house (therefore no chance to go where a job may be had), when they are no longer getting unemployment checks, when they are required to buy health insurance from what little they may have left...
We may see all hell come down on those who are responsible for this "plundering of America."
The administration wants to protect the rights of the 9/11 terrorists (Whoops, please insert an appropriate and acceptable alternative label.) wheile trampling ours. Not a good political move except in their own small minds.
Re: Your Tax Dollar At Work
Not to worry...They are using nonexistent money.
Best of all, I think there is only a nonexistent political benefit.
The American public is beginning to wake up and if they weren't so busy just trying to get through the day there would be more protesting.
When they have absolutely no hope of selling the house (therefore no chance to go where a job may be had), when they are no longer getting unemployment checks, when they are required to buy health insurance from what little they may have left...
We may see all hell come down on those who are responsible for this "plundering of America."
The administration wants to protect the rights of the 9/11 terrorists while trampling ours. (Whoops, please insert an appropriate and acceptable alternative label.)
Not a good political move except in their own small minds.
Leading Indicators
Released on 11/19/2009 10:00:00 AM For October, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Leading Indicators - M/M change 1.0 % 0.4 % 0.2 % to 0.5 % 0.3 %
Highlights
The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3 percent in October, pointing to what the report says is slow growth in the first half of next year. Once again the rate spread was the greatest positive in October, at 32 basis points between the fed funds rate and 10-year Treasury yield. The size of the spread reflects the Fed's aggressive policy to hold short rates near zero. Outside of the spread, the remaining components are mixed with unemployment claims and stock prices key positives but with consumer expectations and building permits key and very strong negatives. The coincident index, based on its own set of components, was unchanged pointing to no overall economic growth, at least for October.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators jumped 1.0 percent in September for the sixth gain in a row. Eight of the ten components of the leading index rose in the latest month. The largest contributor in September was the rate spread between the federal funds rate, which is very low, and the 10-year Treasury note. The second biggest contributor was consumer expectations. On the debate about when recovery began, July is still the statistical favorite based on the coincident index. This index, which weighs heavily in the decisions on business cycle peaks and troughs, was unchanged in September. This index first showed an increase in July then in August, both at 0.1 percent gains.
Philadelphia Fed Survey - 16.7 vs 12 consensus
Released on 11/19/2009 10:00:00 AM For November, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
General Business Conditions Index - Level 11.5 12.0 3.5 to 17.0 16.7
Highlights
The Mid-Atlantic region is enjoying slow but tangible growth according to the Philadelphia Fed's index which rose to 16.7 in November vs. 11.5 in October. Employment is a big plus, only marginally negative at minus 0.5 in a big improvement and the latest hint that layoffs are winding down. New orders rose sharply, to 14.8 from 6.2 in perhaps the best reading of all. Shipments are keeping pace, at 15.7 vs. October's 3.3. The supply chain is still wide open with delivery times, at minus 12.7, faster than ever and with inventories, at minus 17.3, still being drawn. Note that increasing shipments should begin to slow down delivery times and, very importantly, slow down inventory burn. Input prices continue to rise but only mildly while prices for finished products are flat. Tuesday's industrial production was a big setback for the manufacturing outlook, showing a 0.1 percent downtick in October. But today's report, together with Monday's Empire State report, offer early signals of month-to-month growth in November.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The general business conditions component of the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey index slipped to 11.5 in October from 14.1 the month before. Although still well above breakeven, the latest number reflected a modest slowing in month-to-month growth of manufacturing activity. Looking ahead, activity is likely to improve as the new orders index did accelerate slightly, to 6.2 from 3.3 in September.
SPY Puts, TWM
Bought some $111 Dec Puts at $3.65 and TWM at $28.95.
Don't see much of a bounce coming.
EIA Natural Gas Report - 20bcf vs. 25 bcf last month
Released on 11/19/2009 10:30:00 AM For wk11/13, 2009
Prior Actual
Weekly Change 25 bcf 20 bcf
Highlights
Natural gas in storage rose 20 billion cubic feet in the Nov. 13 week.
Re: Top watch
I hate to talk to myself, but I will do it (you can call me crazy). The only pieces of the puzzle that don't confirm a major top are sentiment indicators (not quite at the early 2004 highs) and too many people seating in bonds (I believe multiyear high). So, it's quite possible, we will have a minor sell off now, followed by the final melt up. Bears beware of traps.
One has to consider that the game is rigged by HB&B, so if they see an important pivot soon, they will unleash a torrent of liquidity again guarantying a final surge.
My future scenario is as follows: a few years of slowly rising inflation (SPX and GLD parity) followed by accelerated inflation (lowering SPX:GLD ratio), possible hyperinflation, then global economy arrest due to sky high commodities (he had some of that in 2008), followed by deflation, burning all assets, and creating a secular bottom (single digit PE). Timing will be the key to survival in this scenario. Few lucky ones will make major fortunes.
Question for BSI87
Is it OK to short now?
Re: Your Tax Dollar At Work
Forgive if mentioned already:
"weren't so busy just trying to get through the day there would be more protesting".
to wit: students in California are protesting a approximately 30% increase in their tuition...they have more time it seems.
Re: Cara 100 Update - Intel, TI fall on BOA downgrade
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Shares of Intel Corp., Texas Instruments and other chip makers fell sharply Thursday after Bank of America downgraded the two tech giants and the entire sector on concerns of inventories overshooting real demand.
Shares of Intel (INTC 19.03, -1.09, -5.42%) dropped more than 5%, while TI (TXN 24.64, -1.11, -4.31%) lost about 4% in early trading. Other major chip makers also lost ground as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX 307.68, -13.80, -4.29%) fell 4%, setting the pace for a tech retreat.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 6.90, -0.42, -5.74%) , which scored an upgrade from Broadpoint AmTech following moves to ease its debt burden, saw its shares fall more than 7%.
"Following a period of rapid replenishment of inventory and normalization of semi shipments to 'true' consumption levels, inventories in the supply chain are approaching a level suggesting a modest overshoot versus equilibrium levels," analyst Sumit Dhanda said in a note.
The downgrade's impact appear to ripple across the broader tech sector, as the Nasdaq Composite Index(COMP 2,143, -50.12, -2.29%) sank nearly 2%.
Chip companies are often seen as indicators, as they must build their products ahead of any upswing in demand for end-customer goods.
Many of chipmakers have seen sequential gains in sales recently due partly to what analysts say was an inventory correction following the economic downturn as manufacturers scaled back chip supplies to levels below real demand.
Real demand is widely seen as picking up as the economy slowly rebounds, but Dhanda said there is a risk of "a potential inventory overshoot."
"While we see limited risk to near-term estimates, due in part to the possibility of an extended overshoot, we think the longer this persists the greater the risk of a correction in the supply chain," Dhanda said. "Barring a sharp upturn in the global economies, this, in our view, renders the risk-reward associated with ownership of chip stocks unattractive."
Dhanda did note that ""the inventory adjustment will likely be modest and quick."
BofA also downgraded Intel to neutral from buy, on concerns of weaker-than-expected demand for personal computers.
"Given the more muted outlook for PC builds in the fourth quarter of 2009, coupled with our belief that Intel has likely increased internal fab loadings in anticipation of continued robust growth, we see risk of a potential build of excess inventory, albeit modest, that could occur in the first half of 2010," Dhanda wrote.
Another analyst, FBR Capital's Craig Berger, also cited signs of weakening PC demand, though he said in a note, "We do not want to get overly bearish on the PC space given improving global demand and still-unknown holiday sell-through trends."
Berger said he remains "bullish" on the semiconductor sector, saying, "We think fears of a first half of 2010 estimate cuts from double ordering are overblown, that global supply chain inventories are at or near all-time lows, that global demand trends will continue to recover in 2010."
Meanwhile, Dhanda of BofA also downgraded TI to neutral from buy, noting that "much of the good news on the margin front is increasingly reflected in the model."
Dhanda also cited "a potentially sharper roll off of the Nokia baseband business could prove a more material headwind in 2010, and an impending sector slowdown could have a derivative impact on analog/embedded fundamentals."
TI has been struggling with the threat to its dominant position in the cell-phone chip market as some top customers have shifted to a multi-supplier strategy. Nokia Corp.(NOK 13.43, -0.50, -3.59%) has decided to work with other suppliers such as Broadcom Corp.(BRCM 28.82, -1.22, -4.06%) and STMicroelectronics NV(STM 8.53, -0.46, -5.12%)
With heightened competition in the wireless arena, TI has focused more on its strengths in analog and embedded processing.
Meanwhile, Broadpoint AmTech analyst Doug Freedman upgraded his rating for Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD 6.90, -0.42, -5.74%) to buy from neutral, citing the chip maker's recent moves to fix its finances following the settlement of legal disputes with rival Intel.
Intel has agreed to pay AMD $1.25 billion as part of the truce. On Wednesday, AMD announced plans to ease its debt burden. See story on AMD's plan to reduce debt.
"It all happened faster than expected," Freedman said in a note. "AMD's capital structure improved as a result of Intel's $1.25 billion settlement and yesterday's announcement of AMD debt restructuring actions."
Re: Top watch
I will get out my tin hat, cause your reading my mind...not really, but I do think you might be on to something. Regarding the didactic mind flow here, some don't have time, some do, and other vicissitudes. I think at important points, remains to be seen, people choose what works or what is safe...be that a box, which we all have our favorites whether we want to admit it or not, or the bottle or some weed or sex, etc, we will end up doing the right thing for us at the time. I feel this way and that is my point 5 cents (.50) that I get each time I repatriate my money.
edit: the "on to something" was referring to the background of the market as well as the interactions here.
VCP
Not getting a quote... withdrawn from US exchanges? This might be old news, just curious.
Re: Question for BSI87
I can't vouch for anyone since we don't know risk tolerance, portfolio size, current positions, etc.
I can only state my trades are and what the indicators are telling.
I think I did state that risk has been increasing and the candlesticks showed a hammer/hanging man.
GL
NGD down
TORONTO, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Shares of New Gold Inc (NGD.TO) dropped more than 17 percent on Thursday after the company said it had suspended mining at its Cerro San Pedro mine in Mexico following an order from authorities in the country.
New Gold said the mine, which was expected to produce between 90,000 and 100,000 ounces of gold this year, has been operating in full compliance with required permits and government authorizations.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFN19...
Critical vote on Audit the Fed today.
I received this email from RonPaul.com today. I urge you to call the representatives listed here to ensure Ron Paul's bill goes through.
A few weeks ago, the Campaign for Liberty sent out an alert that Representative Mel Watt was attempting to water down HR 1207 in the House Financial Services Committee.
The latest reports we have received have informed us that a vote on the Watt amendment could come today!
There's still time for us to stop this attack on Audit the Fed! Click here to get a full list of Financial Services Committee members, along with their contact information.
Financial Services leadership seems determined to include Audit the Fed as part of a regulatory reform package instead of passing it as a standalone bill.
While will still do everything in its power to fight for a standalone vote on Audit the Fed on the House floor, it is critical we challenge Watt's amendment in Committee.
It will become much easier for our representatives to claim they still support Audit the Fed on the House floor if the Watt version passes, when, in reality, Representative Watt's amendment puts restrictions on Government Accountability Office audits of the Fed.
For example, Watt's amendment prevents the GAO from auditing or reviewing decisions to authorize, modify, extend, or terminate loans or liquidity facilities.
Congressman Paul will offer an amendment in Committee restoring an audit of the Fed's entire $2 trillion balance sheet, but we have received word that some of the Democrat members may be waffling on their support for his amendment.
Help us turn up the pressure on these members! Below is the list of Democrats on the committee who have cosponsored H.R. 1207. Please call them and urge them to vote "Yes" on Ron Paul's amendment. Click on their names to get their web contact information.
1. Rep. John Adler, NJ (202) 225-4765
2. Rep. Travis Childers, MS (202) 225-4306
3. Rep. Steve Driehaus, OH (202) 225-2216
4. Rep. Alan Grayson, FL (202) 225-2176
5. Rep. Rubén Hinojosa, TX (202) 225-2531
6. Rep. Suzanne Kosmas, FL Toll Free: 1-877-956-7627
7. Rep. Dan Maffei, NY (202) 225-3701
8. Rep. Brad Miller, NC (202) 225-3032
9. Rep. Walt Minnick, ID (202) 225-6611
10. Rep. Ed Perlmutter, CO (202)-225-2645
11. Rep. David Scott, GA (202) 225-2939
12. Rep. Brad Sherman, CA (202) 225-5911
13. Rep. Jackie Speier, CA (202) 225-3531
When contacting these members, remember that up to this point, they have been allies on this issue. A civil yet firm tone should be kept during these calls. They should be thanked for their cosponsorship, told that Mel Watt's changes to the bill are unacceptable, and urged to hold the line and honor their promise to support transparency at the Fed by voting "Yes" on Ron Paul's amendment.
And don't forget to click here to get a full list of Financial Services Committee members.
For more information on the Watt amendment, check out this article by The Huffington Post's Ryan Grim.
We are continuing our work to achieve a standalone vote on HR 1207 on the House floor, but we must first stop the Watt amendment in the Financial Services Committee.
Make sure the Financial Services Committee members hear from you as soon as their offices open Thursday morning!
A vote could come any time today. Call, email, and fax the Financial Services Committee members to vote "Yes" on Congressman Ron Paul's amendment.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!
PCS
one of the few Triple RSI buy signals in SP500. One cancels other order. Buy limit 5.82/buy stop 6.08/6.08 limit GTC
Max pain 10 bucks for Nov and 7.5 for Dec.
Do your own homework
A little bile with that cupa joe this morning?
THings that make you wretch a little bit;
Cap and Trade: A License Required for your Home (Frank Carrio, National Association of Certified Home Inspectors)
http://tinyurl.com/yh4n3w4
Climate Rage (NAOMI KLEIN, Rolling Stone Magazine)
http://tinyurl.com/yz494tb
Re: Cara 100 Update - Intel, TI fall on BOA downgrade
On Monday 12/16/09, INTC raised its quarterly dividend by 12.5 percent, to 15.75 cents per share, or 63 cents a year. The first of the higher dividends will be paid in the first quarter of 2010.
IMHO, INTC has very good fundamental, it already confirmed earning for this quarter. With 0.63/19 = 3.31%, the dividens is much more than CD paid by the bank. Few weeks ago, Morgan Stanley analyst downgraded when it was around $19.
I just bought some Jan call $16 call at $2.2. It's not bad to pay $0.25 premium for 8 weeks time decay.
11:41 OPTT Hearing firm has
11:41 OPTT Hearing firm has won 50MW order from EDF unit in Spain
- Speculation that the deal is worth $70-80M to OPTT, which would make it the largest order ever.
RIMM/RIM
At what point does the intrinsic value of RIMM outway the fear and loathing generated by HB&B? I am trying to hold on, having moved my stop down from 60 to 50 because the playing field is big, as in pie for everyone; "yippee maw lookie there, its got woopin cream on it". I say the odds are good, that the line on this bet will be around 50 approximately...any others feel the same or different?
edit: I did buy some more at 58.32 in FD. It has already pulled back (smart money risk avoidance in my opinion) and it makes an excellent RSI candidate at some point.
Re: 11:41 OPTT Hearing firm has
So Vad...can you give a little trader lesson re. how to handle spikes like that. Is it just step aside??? Thanks.
Re: PCS
long at 6.08. Sell limit 10/ sell stop 5.63/limit 5.60
Do your own homework.
CMED
long @13.05. One cancels other order. Sell limit 20. Sell stop 11.43/11.32 limit.
Do your own homework
PM is coming back
Silver has already recovered with gold not far behind. The dollar "rally" is looking not so spunky any more.
However, neither oil nor SPX seem to be following along.
So what caused SPX to drop 20 points today? Just the will of HB&B? We needed a down day to balance everything out? I'm still feeling things are quite controlled right now.
Yep, there goes gold now. The primary trend wins again. Now it's the goldbugs who are "buying the dips."
Re: Critical vote on Audit the Fed today.
Golden opportunity; what other kind is there? I have made the calls myself. When I look back and read the books written that Bill talks about (not necessarily to this specific mind-share) I do not want to feel the self-generated guilt for having claimed time constraints or other "real excuses" for not having given a dam about our country as it burns around us. Thank you for having Americas back.
Re: 11:41 OPTT Hearing firm has
Kyle,
playing fresh news is easy only if you get a chance to enter at the very beginning of the move, which as a rule is impossible. News hit at 11:40 - 11.41; add a few seconds to enter symbol, look quickly at the charts to evaluate where stock is in relation to daily and intraday ranges, and you are already looking at 50-70 cents chasing. Also, this kind of news-caused spikes are just red-hot buying, no regard to technicals and patterns whatsoever. What it means in practice is: there is no really way to read it by pure chart indications, the only helpful thing is a gut feel based on many of such moves seen before. Here are my comments in trading room after posting news (pay attention to time stamps and compare them to prices on 1 min chart):
[11:41] {Threei} this is momo candidate
[11:42] {Threei} OPTT knows how to run
[11:42] {Threei} 11 easy
11:45, OPTT hits 11 and slightly above... Notice that I haven't given any specific entry points, unlike my usual format of calls which is like: Long Setup ABCD, on 20 break if holding above 19.80
So, bad news is, no way to apply chart reading to this kind of spikes. Good news is, with experience you get a grip on how they are likely to develop. This is grey area, intuition plays bigger role than in other types of trades. Times and Sales is more important than usually; this is lightening fast trading, don't even think about it with slowish broker. Usually first pullback after the spike is getting bought furiously (occurred at 11:42). If a stock stalls after the pullback and then breaks support, step aside and let it drop much lower (occurring now after 10.50 breakdown following 20 minutes stall right above it.)
This all was from day trader's point of view. From longer time frame point of view - I don't have much to offer because OPTT is a story stock, not a technically moving one. They move into technical reality when a story becomes established and interest becomes "institutionalized" so to speak.
Re: 11:41 OPTT Hearing firm has
Vad,
Thanks much for the reply. From your logs, I know you're very busy during the trading day. Another question if I may... was noticing MI trading in a band 5 to 5.60. Have you or would you trade these types of swings??
Thanks
New Margin Requirements for Currency Traders
http://tinyurl.com/ygkzf8u
Re: 11:41 OPTT Hearing firm has/MI
MI as a day trade, no, not my cup of tea... a bit too slow and narrow, we call this kind of trades a water torture and I get slapped with frozen trout if get traders into one of those... and for today I already did, on WMT, LOL
30 Year study on S&P gaps, pretty interesting/surprising
30 Year study on S&P gaps, pretty interesting/surprising
And there is a thinly veiled political rant embedded, enjoy
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/30-year-ga...
If anyone out there likes this stuff let me know.
Wholly Molly!
What did you guys do here? The place looks so different now. Amazing what new carpet and wall paper can do. Thought these two things might be of interest to some of you.
Interesting chart by a trader name Keirsten.
http://tinyurl.com/yclrtyh
and this article titled.. "Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for potential 'global collapse' " http://tinyurl.com/ybs4qhl
"Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global economic collapse" over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.
SocGen advises bears to sell the dollar and to "short" cyclical equities such as technology, auto, and travel to avoid being caught in the "inherent deflationary spiral". Emerging markets would not be spared. Paradoxically, they are more leveraged to the US growth than Wall Street itself. Farm commodities would hold up well, led by sugar.
Mr Fermon said his report had electrified clients on both sides of the Atlantic. "Everybody wants to know what the impact will be. A lot of hedge funds and bankers are worried," he said."
Re: NGD down
BNN interviews Randall Oliphant, executive chair, New Gold
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip237038
3-Mo Treasury Bill Rate down to 0.05?
A question for those who know about this...
The $IRX (3-Mo T-Bill Rate) has dropped from 0.55 to 0.05 in two days.
What does this mean?
Thanks for your insight.
taking profits on my ultrashorts
A little while ago I sold at $12.41 the TZA shares I added at $11.39 on Monday and then I noticed that HYG as well as silver did not collapse today, so I figured that this sell-off is most likely not the real thing. So I then sold the rest of my TZA at $12.38, which I had purchased at $12 last week. I am still keeping a little of SRS and SKF, though, to hedge out my long positions in UXG, SLV and GLD.
sold my SKF
I just noticed that $USD made a double top at 75.5 between Tuesday and Thursday, and is already down to 75.33. So I just sold at $24.60 the SKF shares I picked up yesterday after hours at $23.60. I will buy into SKF and TZA again if $USD rises above 75.5.
3PM
big boys will slaughter those who went short at the open and get the bulls to chasing. JMO
sold some of my SRS
I just looked at the CMBX index prices, and their charts look pretty bullish at this point. So I just sold at $8.83 250 shares of SRS I purchased at $8.61 last week -- taking profits, however small, before they turn into large losses...
SPY
now trading above 10 AM price. Nice price spike about 12:30 PM. gunned the stops?
Re: 3PM
Not sure I agree with that. I think a lot of people that are tired of getting burnt going short have covered their shorts, just like people here have, which causes a short term blip up in the markets. I think the Nikkei is a strong tell to the rest of the world that excessive debt weighs on the markets.
Gold and Dollar
Gold, GLD, GDX, HUI are all up at the same time that the Dollar is up. Is there a chance that gold and related equities have decoupled from the inverse relationship between stocks and the dollar that has existed since March? How is the best way to play this if it is part of a longer term trend?
Re: 3PM
http://hertlermarketsignal.com/4436.html?*session*...
Just one man's opinion.
GL
2 days breakout
I mentioned WMT in previous post as :"water torture" play. Well, lo and behind, thing turns into play of the day. Look at the setup, to add it to arsenal of recognizable things:
- on daily, 54.15 was two days high break
- on intraday, 54.10 was break of nice consolidation up to 11:59
Together they gave powerful break, supported by making new annual highs (which tends to put a stock on even more scanners). Was called as long with trigger 54.15, stop under 54,"not a scalp" which is our code for partialling out instead of tak,ing full profit. Already hit 1:2 risk/reward for two partials out.
Re: 3PM
Don Hayes talked about the Smart Money Indicator as well as Fred Goodman.
http://www.marketmonograph.com/a/goodman/keyIndica...
sold the rest of my SRS
All right, I just sold the rest of my SRS at $8.80. The rising CMBX prices really make me uneasy. I still have $9 short puts on SRS that I sold a few weeks ago at $0.5, and I have a feeling that they will be assigned to me tomorrow, thus reloaded 1/2 of the shares I just sold.
I still have a large position in naked in-the-money calls on FCX, on KRE and also some long puts on KRE and AIG, so if the market keeps crashing, then I'll get a consolation prize. :)
And, as I said earlier, I will jump in again on the short side if $USD rises above 75.5.
wft looking good...
heck, even cramer likes this better than rig...
Re: 3PM
BSI - I guess my point is there is going to be a short term pop due to short covering because:
(a) people don't want to be short going into options expiration
(b) people that were short in the past have gotten burnt too many times and are taking gains
Regarding the smart money index i remember reading that it is at 6 months lows...that's another indicator of a topping process, no?
PARD
out at 2.29, 15% gain. Buys on 11/16 and today.
Capitulation play.
Do your own homework.
Re: sold the rest of my SRS
David - I wonder if eventually this dollar / equities thing will decouple. I think we should maybe consider paying attention to other indicators than the dollar just in case, no?
SOCIETE GENERALE REPORT
ALOHA !!
Thanks BEV for the link to the chart and the Societe Generale(SG) Report.
For those of us who are tangled up in the Unemployment issues I notice that yesterday the US Treasury spent nearly $1BIL USD on Unemployment Benefits.
The SG REPORT used the word DEBT a lot and as any economist would they use JAPAN as an example of DEBT DESTRUCTION.
Last week in my US TREASURY REPORT I did a historical DEBT comparison between Clinton and Obama. Before the DEM apologists point out the usual rant about the eight years of George Bush please understand this is only a "number" exercise and not a political one.
Here it is ...
** FY 1999 **
MEDICARE - $24.6 BIL
SOCIAL SECURITY - $44.7BIL
DEFENSE - $11BIL
UNCLASSIFIED - $39.6BIL
OPERATING CASH BALANCE - ($16.5BIL)
TOTAL DEBT - $1.8TRIL
** FY 2010 **
MEDICARE - $66.1BIL
SOCIAL SECURITY - $77.3BIL
DEFENSE - $30.7BIL
UNCLASSIFIED - $52.4BIL
OPERATING CASH BALANCE - ($195.3BIL)
TOTAL DEBT - $6.2TRIL
That is a 340% increase in TOTAL US DEBT. In my view I look at US DEBT in two different categories and this is exactly how the S&P and MOODYS rates Sovereign Credit. One is external debt, which is "marketable" and the only one that foreigners can buy. This is debt that the US government owes to people who live outside America who hold very large US Dollar reserves. The other is internal debt which is nothing more than IOUs owed to Americans via US Trust Funds. No foreigners can buy the internal debt and therefore it is "non-marketable". Most of the TOTAL US DEBT is owed to Americans in the form of "non-marketable" Government Account Series securities which is leveraged against existing US PUBLIC TRUSTS, like the ones for Social Security and Medicare, but the list is much longer.
I will now add in the Unemployment picture in terms of outlays based on the cut off date of November 10th for each year.
** FY 1999 **
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS - $1.83BIL USD
** FY 2009 **
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS - $6.2BIL USD
** FY 2010 **
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS - $15.82BIL USD
That is a 870% increase from FY 1999 to FY 2010. From FY 2009(last year) to FY 2010 there has been a 255% increase in outlays. Reasons? Yes, the "official" Unemployment Rate is higher now at 10.2. In 1999 it was 4.2 officially, that is 240% higher now and yes there was the TECH BUBBLE and much more economic growth and much less DEBT. Isn't it strange that when you read the link below that "inflation" (CPI)was nearly as low today at 2% in 1999, on an annual basis, yet the economic growth and fundamentals and jobs markets are polar opposites. The FED FUNDS RATE in 1999 was at 5% a drop of 325 basis points from a high of 8.25% in 1990. Within three years, by 2002, the FED FUNDS RATE was at 1.25%. Now look at it. That is why this is a monetary crisis. This is where no amount of DEBT or CREDIT buys any growth. That was left out of the SG REPORT. It's not about Japan and GDP and "exports" this is a monetary issue. Do not get side tracked by the "inflation vs deflation" debate. Those are "symptoms" being debated. Nobody is even looking at the cancer yet, but then again we have been in a monetary crisis since 1913 when the US FED was created 96 years ago. A "long train of abuses", as it says in the US Declaration Of Independence. What else do you call a 96% loss in purchasing power of the US Dollar(1% per year) other than an "abuse"?
LINK: http://clinton4.nara.gov/WH/New/html/20000112_1.html
Is it not a given that the only reason that the two party political MONOPOLY has endured for over 100 years is that they have made certain promises and guarantees(bribes) to the US Voters whereby said financial and social guarantees will never be defaulted upon? Is it not obvious to every politician in DC that should they announce publicly that they would no longer issue Social Security checks or that Medicare would no longer exist or that Food Stamps and Unemployment Benefits would be eliminated that their power would be non-existent on that very same day of the announcement? Any "meddling" with Social Security and Medicare benefits, according to AARP, is tantamount to political suicide. Even David Walker upon resigning his post at the GAO said there is no political will in America to address these social guarantees and their fiscal viability. He even went on 60 MINUTES and said that.
This is what Societe Generale leaves out of their report in terms of DEBT. They mention the "aging populations" briefly and as everyone in DC knows that aging voting block is getting larger by the day and that voting block does not care one bit about REP or DEM or whose black and whose white or how many bows Obama gave to the Japanese. All this "aging block" cares about is their own "fiscal security". After all if you worked then you paid into the "system" and just like FDIC you have an implicit guarantee from the US government that you will be paid once you retire and that when you retire that Social Security check will be worth something.
We have a union of the two most powerful MONOPOLIES ever to exist in America. The two party REP/DEM MONOPOLY and the US FED MONEY MONOPOLY. When you look at our government and its monetary system in terms of a MONOPOLY then you understand why there is no difference between Bush and Obama.
The quickest way to destroy the political MONOPOLY that has created TAXATION WITHOUT ANY REPRESENTATION is to eliminate the MONEY MONOPOLY which funds the POLITICAL MONOPOLY through its member banks. Its simple. If you want to discover the root of all evil then just follow the money!
Re: PARD
shoulda done a MOC order
House Panel Approves Broad Auditing of the Fed
House Panel Approves Broad Auditing of Federal Reserve
[WSJ] A key House panel approved two amendments to a sweeping financial-overhaul bill that would give federal watchdogs new authority to audit the Federal Reserve, and would establish a fund of as much as $200 billion to help dissolve large, troubled institutions. Rep. Ron Paul (R., Texas) offered the amendment seeking to subject the Fed to audits.
The House Financial Services Committee voted 41-28 to approve the amendments, wrapping up weeks of debate but postponing a final vote on the bill until after Thanksgiving.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125866015562556197...
btw, that was quite a pounding that Tim Geithner took today from the Joint Committee on Economics. Got personal and he didn't like it. But he was in the center of this mess for years, and politicians can no longer hide that fact from upset voters.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125864421370955721...
testimony highlights:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125864421370955721...
Bought some NGD in the panic
Not a big position, but if gold stays over $1000, they should do fine, I think.
ADY
kangaroo tail reversal a few days ago. Long after hours at 24.57
do your own homework
Great email submission on true main st
Won't link as it's on another blog, mish but I agree 100% as far as tristate NYC:
"Hunkering Down", a fast food restaurant owner writes:
I discovered your blog a while back, and I have become a faithful reader. You have been spot on in my opinion in most of your commentary. I have a small business, an independant fast food restaurant, we've been in our location since 1988.
We have survived the recessions, new competitors, and many other ups and downs of the joys of capitalism, but I am not sure we are going to live through the governments meddling in the current financial disaster.
Last year we had 21 employees, now we have 11. Fortunately I was blessed with a better accountant than Bernanke. Mine told me when I was nattering on in 2007 (yes 07) about getting a 50,000 dollar loan for improvements that there was a horrible recession coming. He suggested that I pay down my debts and basically go into hibernation mode if I wanted to get through this. And thank goodness we did.
Adding salt in the wounds of those who did not see this coming, the Obama administration is scaring businesses to death with threats of huge taxes, health mandates, card check unionization, and cap and trade on one hand, and sheer ignorance of economics on the other.
Is a tax credit of FICA wages supposed to make me spend 20,000 a year on a new hire? Really? Money to pay the rest of his wage is going to come from....where exactly? Businesses are not going to hire to get a tax credit of FICA, they will hire when they need to. The program is useless for job stimulation, but costly for the deficit.
Any business person with a lick of sense is hunkering down, and the ones without sense are being forced to hunker, BECAUSE THERE IS NO BUSINESS! No, I don't want a loan. A loan (debt) is the last thing I or anyone else who is trying to surf the tsunami of this economy wants.
This is the "can't make him drink" economy whether you are a consumer, or a business person. The mess is compounded government officials riding horses with the saddles on backwards. The rest are either nuts or criminals, so there you are.
Multiply me by thousands of sensible others, and you see where we are headed.
Sincerely,
"Hunkering Down"
Trader's Thoughts
What do you think trader's thoughts are with respect to Obama mentioning the possibility of a double dip recession?
How about the government selling preferred stakes in JPM and others? Does this signal that they think the prices have risen enough? Are they going to use the proceeds to pay down our debt as they promised? If so, won't this have a positive impact on the dollar and (at least in the short term) a negative impact on equities?
been spending time on
WFT's chart/trading history... This is such a strong company ( as Bill has pointed out ). I personally will be buying LT at $ 14.50... It may never see that... all the better.. tomorrow may give a wonderful buy opportunity...
Re: Great email submission on true main st
Wouldn't it be great to have an actual small business person like this testify before a Congressional committee?
Enlightening for the committee and refreshing to hear the truth for a change.
Just today a friend told me her son-in-law has been informed by Caterpillar he must take a 5-week furlough. A similar situation with another son-in-law at Andersen Windows.
This, of course, is not mentioned in the jobs reports.
the supertanker
I think the supertanker is turning. While the dollar gave back a lot of its gains today, I look at the various currencies comprising the buck and I find 2 of them weakening (FXC, FXE) two of them possibly confirming reversals today (FXB, FXA) and only FXY looking possibly squirrelly.
Certainly "buy the dip" is now in vogue with PM traders, and the volumes are massive, but watching the intraday action I remain convinced a serious dollar rally will hurt PM. I don't think the buck and PM have decoupled at all.
I think what will happen is, one of these days USD will rally above its 50dma (which is only at 76 now - and with the buck closing at 75.29, that is only a 1% move) and that will cause a number of traders to close their dollar shorts.
FXC closed today slightly below its 50dma. Perhaps its the tell?
Re: sold the rest of my SRS / $USD indicator
"David - I wonder if eventually this dollar / equities thing will decouple. I think we should maybe consider paying attention to other indicators than the dollar just in case, no?"
teamonfuego, when the dollar/equity relationship decouples, then I won't be paying much attention to $USD. But until that happens, the gradually falling $USD is pretty much the only thing that is pushing this market higher, and hence a *rising* $USD above certain critical resistance levels can be a very good trigger for going short.
The general environment for going short is much better than 1 month ago, as indicated in the greatly deteriorating advance-decline lines for all indexes. They are especially bad-looking for IWM and XLF, which tend to be the leading indexes to collapse when the speculators are leaving stocks.
What other indicators did you have in mind?
Re: House Panel Approves Broad Auditing of the Fed
Wow. Ron Paul gets sweeping authority to audit the Fed through the House. Could this upset the big boys on Wall St and cause some punitive moves in the market to show Washington its disdain?
Could we see oil back over $100?
Could we see one productive (not the fiancial) sector get crushed?
Could we see banks rally on more toxic fumes?
Just thinking out loud.
3-Month Treasury Bill Turns Negative
Anyone have a guess at to what the implications of this may be? War? Large bank going belly up? Anyone?
Re: Great email submission on true main st
DELETE
Re: Great email submission on true main st
DELETE
Re: Great email submission on true main st
ALOHA !!
NYU GRAD ... Hunker indeed. I bulldozed about half my orchid fields for a couple reasons. One they were not producing as much as they were being over ten years old and two I wanted to reorganize and base my production closer to my sales, so contrary to the past orchid farming methodology I did not replant everything that was bulldozed the very next day. Many orchid farmers here replanted based on their past belief that the economy would keep going forever. That real estate prices would rise forever and credit would be forever in the "easy money" mode and the US Dollar would be King until eternity ends. Things CHANGE ... So now we have TRICKLE DOWN SURVIVAL, just like with the US Banks as the only ones that will be left standing will be the ones who planned ahead and jettisoned toxic debt and cashed up. Same in the orchid biz as my competitors start to disintegrate and just like the US Banks who are left standing the customer base grows from the failure of their competitors. Those orchid farmers who only relied on "savings" are finding out that holding debt derivatives has been a poor choice. I just spoke to one of those last night as he is now using his savings to replant, but he is not as aggressive on his planting this time. He even said this to me. I am paraphrasing from memory, but this is the gist ... We happened to be standing in his living room when the TV was on and a news story on the DOW and gold flashed by. "I see the stock market rally and gold go up but I just didn't want to gamble with my nest egg, yet here I am getting 2% interest and I am now having to use up $11,000 of my savings to replant. I now have to spend $1,600 dollars a week to earn $1,000. That's not how its suppose to work! I was just too afraid!" He now has to wait at least a year to get any meaningful production he can sell. He is in a very tough spot, but he thinks he has enough savings to make it through that one year grow period. Some of my closest friends and business associates I told to buy gold instead of getting CDs and real estate when the POG was at $300, then $400 then $500 then $600 ... on and on ... and at every milestone they would say ... "Gold is too high, if I buy in now it will just go down!" So they either bought FLIP THIS HOUSE investments or CDs. Out of about 40 close friends and relatives and business associates only 3 took me up on my gold recommendation. One at $425 POG, another at $500 POG and the other at $650 POG. None would bite at $300 or below! Now none of the rest want anything to do with POG knocking on $1200.
My version of what we have seen is the postponement of a monetary collapse by use of credit expansion disguised using the word SPECULATION by the financial press. Its really just a series of BUBBLES ... The final BUBBLE will be the LIABILITY BUBBLE, whereby every company faces a derivative crisis whether they actually even know what a swap is or not with the ultimate holder of these toxic assets(aka:LIABILITIES)being the US Treasury(aka: the US TAXPAYER). The exponential expansion of PAPER LIABILITIES with insolvent counterparties are the essence of the LIABILITY BUBBLE. If you own debt you hold a "liability" ... The US Dollar is a debt derivative made up of the external and internal US DEBT loads from the issuance of US Treasuries in various maturity and rate denominations. GOLD IS MONEY ... gold has no liabilities. Gold cannot default but the US Treasury can and under such a scenario only the gold reserves belonging to the US Treasury will have value to our numerous creditors. Remember though that the largest creditor the US Treasury has, in dollar terms, is its own citizens, not CHINA. If you doubt that then go read any of the US Treasury Daily Statements. The "marketable" US DEBT section is tiny compared to the "non-marketable" US DEBT section(see TABLE III-A). This is the reason David Walker quit the GAO and went on 60 MINUTES. Its a sign of the times that David Walker got no PRESIDENTIAL MEDAL OF HONOR from George Bush but Greenspan did. The MONEY MONOPOLY allegiances in DC are just glaring! David Walker a patriotic whistle blower against the POLITICAL MONOPOLY, a man of the highest character and caliber gets no medal ... no recognition. Walker gets no $150,000 per speech speaking tour. Greenspan, the original sellout, gets all the FAME and all the RICHES for his loyalty to the MONEY MONOPOLY elites.
As I type this I see the US Treasury is running a negative $200BIL USD operating cash balance and TOTAL US DEBT issues crossed the $7TRIL mark.
Now if only the RON PAUL AUDIT THE FED Bill will get past the Senate without being diluted down to a wrist slap! When do you suppose the US Congress will pass an AUDIT THE US TREASURY Bill? The ultimate test of the US CONGRESS and their patriotism would be for them to pass an AUDIT THE US CONGRESS Bill!
Re: Great email submission on true main st
"Wouldn't it be great to have an actual small business person like this testify before a Congressional committee?
Enlightening for the committee and refreshing to hear the truth for a change."
Uhhu... they'll a) call him Joe the (insert the profession), b) send the crew to investigate his past and drag out every missing piece of paper to make him look like a sleazeball and c) label him as Republican puppet. Call me cynic... but I am a trader looking for patterns, and that's the pattern.
Re: sold the rest of my SRS / $USD indicator
I have no idea...just throwing it out there. I have been thinking that the Nikkei is a leading indicator for our markets actually... I think their economy is very similar to ours in a lot of respects.
I'm also watching IWM and went short it today.
Re: Great email submission on true main st
How about audit Fort Knox and that vault under Manhattan? It's the biggest hoard of gold in the world by far and it's ours. Void any derivative obligations tied to it (if China can void derivatives, so can we) along with abolishing the Fed, figure out how to assist gold to $10,000 and pay off the debt. It's like going broke but still having that mint vintage Ferrari 250LM in the garage. Am I missing something?
Re: 3-Month Treasury Bill Turns Negative
"Anyone have a guess at to what the implications of this may be? War? Large bank going belly up? Anyone?"
The TED spread has also spiked up over the past 2 days, so I guess that the stress on the banking system has increased. This may be due to the audit of the Fed, which may disclose which banks required the most help recently (and hence cause investors shun away from those banks).
Almost riots
http://inflation.us/videos.html
Good night all!
Re: Wholly Molly!
I think this report did have an impact today. I heard on NPR today that sugar trading went nuts (anyone can confirm that?). That could also explain the T-bill spike today.
Yet report says nothing. On one hand deflation risk, on the other hand inflation risk. Duh, I'm pondering this very issue since 2007.
Re: Great email submission on true main st
ALOHA !!
The gold reserves stored at Ft Knox and NYC and elsewheres unknown is the property of the US Treasury and so if you AUDIT THE US TREASURY then by default you audit the US gold reserves.
Currently the US Treasury has those gold reserves priced at $42.22USD per ounce. Only with this faux-accounting can the share prices of GS and JPM and C and AIG be artificially inflated in a faux free market while the price on gold remains way understated in the Ft. Knox basement. What does the US Treasury fear by pricing their gold reserves at current spot prices like other global governments do? Perhaps a re-pricing would require an actual audit ... on top of the fact it would be an admission that the US Dollar has been severely devalued and currently trades at severely "overbought" levels.
Now if the US Treasury insists on pricing their gold at $42.22 then I would like to offer them a 20% premium and purchase a large portion of their "old gold" for $50.66USD per ounce. I would be more than happy to accommodate them and keep that purchase on the "down low" so as not to alert or awaken other slumbering central banks and the American public. I would provide my own VIA MAT transportation and have the purchase disguised as a funeral procession with the caskets full of 400 ounce gold bars! I guess the only giveaway would be the forklift lifting each casket onto a C-5 Galaxy!
Okay, PLAN B?
Re: 3-Month Treasury Bill Turns Negative
Good point, but TED has been actually going up since August, confirming that August was an intermediate top in real terms (see $SPX:$GOLD) and now things are getting worse.
$USD vs US index futures
I see that $USD has changed its mind and promptly gave up all of the gains it made after hours. Correspondingly, the US index futures are back to 0 (after being red an hour ago). So the 75.5 level might actually prove to be a real resistance for $USD, implying a most likely an up day tomorrow.
Re: House Panel Approves Broad Auditing of the Fed
http://bit.ly/2dOfvL
Re: Great email submission on true main st
Kaimu -
I know the guy who piloted the C-130 that rescued the 103 Israeli hostages out of Entebbe in 1973. He's Cuban! I'll be the loadmaster and supply the pilot and plane if you'll sell me half at twice your 20% premium.
Is $6,300 fair value for gold?
Almost all western governments are insolvent. The total net liabilities of the US and France are both over 500pc of GDP. The UK and Germany are over 400pc.
We are bust. To make matters worse — says Mr Grice — central bank credibility has been “permanently ruptured” by their collective failure to see the 2008 crash coming. (He is too polite: they caused the crisis by holding real rates too low for a decade, creating a debt bubble).
Given that central bankers have been exposed as mortals/charlatans (ie pretending to command an exact science, when economics is merely a descriptive branch of anthropology), who can have much faith that they will manage the exit from emergency stimulus with skill?
Markets fear that central bankers will try to satisfy political masters by inflating away our debt. (Here too, I have my doubts: my concern is that they do not yet understand the deflationary dynamic underway, and will stay too tight, for too long, until we are in the Japanese abyss. Look at the 7pc annualized contraction of the M3 money supply {not the same thing as the monetary base, at all} in the US over the last three months, which Bernanke refuses to look at because he regards M3 as a barbarous Friedmanite relic.) http://tinyurl.com/yjmc8lp Bob.
Re: Great email submission on true main st
Kaimu, several months ago you mentioned that "your pigs were smart enough not to get into your car and go to the bank"
Perhaps you can teach them to sniff out tungsten, on a 400 ounce gold bar, a C-5
is probably flying some of it out of the USA, certified by John Nadler from Kitco Canada to supply their pooled accounts customers here. After all the customers will never touch it, or feel it, but a trained PIG will sniff it out.
Japan getting closer to the edge of the cliff
starting to weigh down on IEV, FXI & ILF?
Re: Great email submission on true main st
There is a good piece here written by Gary North about default,entitled:
What Is Money?
Part 11: The Great Default.
"The governments of every major nation are going to default on their debts. There are two relevant questions: (1) How? (2) When?"
http://tinyurl.com/yz9sog4
What we are up against.
see attachment
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simone_Weil
Hijacked this jpg from Jesse.
US FED HUBRIS
ALOHA !!
I read the Mish account of the AUDIT THE US FED BILL ...
This part in particular!
The Greeks used to call this HUBRIS ...
"Paul's opponents also placed a letter from former Fed chairmen Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker on the seats of every committee member. Such a move is in violation of House rules and Grayson was able to have the letters removed."
Only a true MONOPOLY acts above the law! Clearly after all the years since the FED FUNDS RATE of 17% on Volcker's watch he shows his true colors, as if there would be any doubt as to his loyalty.
My only concern is that such a powerful MONEY MONOPOLY would act like a DICTATOR being exiled once the US Senate passed the Bill, unaltered, and commit flagrant atrocities to destroy the US Dollar once and for all. Much like how Saddam left the Kuwait oil fields and his own country upon his military defeat. Like a financial "cyanide pill" as the robber barons abandon ship! Then they could point to the US Dollar's final demise and blame Ron Paul and his Bill as the cause of America's monetary demise and not them. Like a giant I TOLD YOU SO! Or perhaps they might cause another JFK incident against Ron Paul. These guys are adept at scapegoating and crimes against humanity! The hallmarks of any great MONOPOLY!
Who knows? All I know is when a DICTATOR is deposed or a MONOPOLY'S power is at stake they never go quietly into the night. They always commit one last "looting" ... one last FU!
Is it not so?
Re: Great email submission on true main st
"they'll a) call him Joe the (insert the profession), b) send the crew to investigate his past and drag out every missing piece of paper to make him look like a sleazeball and c) label him as Republican puppet. Call me cynic... but I am a trader looking for patterns, and that's the pattern."
Yeah, Vad, you're probably right, but I do believe more people are aware of the skewing of the news than is typical.
Almost every day I hear people saying, "I can't listen to the news anymore." (meaning TV network "News" shows) They are sick of all the stupidity, duplicity, audacity of false hope and obvious lies.
Someone posted a link to the declining viewership on CNBC recently. I wonder what the picture is for news shows.
Q: If a lie is broadcast on the air, but no one is listening, does it have any effect?
A: No. The people are all in the forest chopping wood for a long winter :-(
Cara 100 Ratings Changes
Good morning.
DELL - PT Lowered from $16 to $14 @ Credit Suisse. Neutral
INTC - BMO Initiates with an Outperform
-----------
The Real Numbers of Commercial Real Estate:
http://tinyurl.com/yk66yll
DENSA Approved
Re: Almost riots
Thanks for the link.
Be sure to watch the videos on INFLATION!
Very well done and should be broadcast on national TV.
Re: Is $6,300 fair value for gold?
"Almost all western governments are insolvent."
Is there a country which is NOT insolvent? Is anyone's economy/currency/market based on PM?
Re: What we are up against.
ALOHA !!
Yes Weil ...
Here is a part that reflects our struggle ... WE THE PEOPLE of America with the two monopolies now in power that preside over our daily actions. Weil witnessed the atrocities of war like a soldier does.
I have always believed that the US CONSTITUTION is a "roadmap" to a more spiritual base for America. Even though the Founders who wrote ALL MEN ARE CREATED EQUAL owned slaves there was this beauty in those documents of limited government and Liberty that is a spiritual North Star for all the World to see and contemplate. It transcended the "truth" of the time. Such "declarations" of Freedom and Liberty must have been a thorn in the side of the British Kings and their money masters in the day. Is it any wonder the Brits refer to the American Revolution as the "American Insurrection". How dare the peasants revolt! What must the US FED be saying about their coming demise? It is coming with the AUDIT THE FED BILL or without. The US CONSTITUTION allows for no PRIVATE CENTRAL BANK. That's a purely Rothschild creation.
Once a society begins to lose the ability to provide and meet these needs, it starts to die. Once individuals begin to lose their contact with the soil that nourishes and the sun that illuminates each person’s days, they decay from the inside out. Like a tree that has a sickness, the pith and meat of the tree soften and eventually cannot support the weight of the plant and it topples.
Why or how does this happen? The answer to this question is complex. But for now we can say that, for Weil, most societies do not die natural deaths. They are killed by conquerors and invaders who uproot civilizations, not only not leaving buildings and temples standing but also destroying those spiritual roots that had perhaps sustained the civilization for hundreds if not thousands of years.
This is an immense crime in Weil’s eyes. Through her study of history she had come to love the wonder and beauty of several civilizations. That they were no longer existent, beat into dust by empires, hurt her sense of spiritual balance. Yet, her moral outrage emanated more from a deep despair for she knew that as beautiful as art, architecture, poetry, and religion are, they are nothing compared to the beauty of a human being. Above the death of every civilization she heard a mournful dirge of immense pain and affliction which was the combined voices of each individual who had been hacked, burned, raped, and sodomized — whose human dignity and beauty had been profaned by the merciless and bloody boot of empire and desire for power.
It was this affliction which was caused by a human being treating another human like a piece of garbage which she ultimately saw as her own spiritual vocation in life. But above that, it was the vision of a world wherein humans have the responsibility and mission to alleviate as much of this affliction as possible — to create just and free societies where the cries of the orphans and the widows would be heard that drove her to use all of her spiritual and intellectual and physical resources to bring to birth a manifesto that would lay out the blueprint for rebirth and regeneration. This rebirth would serve as the basis for the rise of a civilization to equal those great ones of history…
In one of her essays, Weil says that the oppressed cannot voice their affliction, cannot cry out due to the weight of the pain they suffer. Her work — her words and her life—is an attempt to give voice to this affliction. This aspect of her work puts it on the level of the ancient Jewish prophets, those men and women who stood up against injustice in the name of God and gave voice to the widows and the orphans, those who are crushed beneath the unending struggle for power.
Weil's mission was ... " ... to bring to birth a manifesto that would lay out the blueprint for rebirth and regeneration."
We have that manifesto ... its the DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE. In that document is the complete instructions from the Founders of America as to what WE THE PEOPLE must do when there exists a "long train of abuses". I define the 96 year rule of the US FED and the two party system as such an illegal "abuse".
I personally do not fear an end to the US FED ... I would applaud such a genuine CHANGE as a rebirth of Liberty and Freedom and Justice. We US Citizens have been fiscally drowning, choked with DEBT of the American Dream, far too long now and an end to the DEBT would be like ... like VICTORY(you have to say that like Duval does in Apocalypse Now)!
— whose human dignity and beauty had been profaned by the merciless and bloody boot of empire and desire for power.
AMERICAN DREAM
ALOHA !!
I do not see a "loan" or mortgage in and of itself as "evil". After all you can "loan" a brother or a friend a "loaf of bread", whereby that "loan" of bread is meant in a spiritual sense coming from the aspect of the "DO UNTO OTHERS" creedo. You would hope that the same kindness would be offered you in the event you were in need.
The "evil" and "corrupt" part of the American Dream is where the banking system skims profits from leveraged deposits. This is like check kiting, where they "loan" non-existent "capital" based on the fraud of "fractional reserve". That's the evil I would like to see removed from our society and to remove that we must remove the US FED. DEBT LEVERAGE is killing us ... This PONZI scheme has been going on for 96 years now.
Credit cards ... 25% ... come on ... that's like the MAFIA! Please-e-e-e!
Re: Great email submission on true main st
Perhaps the networks need to break the back of an obviously non-functional feedback system so that they can get a grip before they are creatively destroyed to borrow a metaphor.
Re: Almost riots
Welcome
Re: What we are up against.
WOW. Thanks for that wiki bio. I knew nothing about her. I've always thought that it's completely possible that the path to God can come from any religious upbringing. None are mutually exclusive at core. If the participants would accept that, then there would be no "religious" battles. Maybe that kernel of understanding is buried in everyone by God, and its up to each person to find it for themselves. After all, what makes more sense than that God puts in you all that is necessary for you? When you listen to people's hatred or fear of others, you are essentially ignoring your own built in compass, given to you by God. The heart of religious beliefs are inner based and spiritual, not confrontational and condescending. Do what your conscience dictates, not what some person says. Great bio to start the day. How did I not know about her? I continue to learn a lot from others at Cara Community.
Re: AMERICAN DREAM
Darn, Kaimu...you do not miss a beat, and I am grateful!
Re: What we are up against.
This was a great read, although I have the need to feed earlier than usual.
Re: fed audit
K, great submission, as usual. The only thing that doesn't make sense is to think that by auditing the fed, congress will right the ship. It won't. In fact, when thinking about the actions of all of the different federal branches, executive, administrative, judiciary, and legislative over a long period of time, it is the legislative branch that has destroyed our children's future to an extent far greater than the others. They have done so by spending our kids into oblivion. The accumulated debt will destroy our children’s future; it is only a question of timing.
Congress is the branch that is charged with acting on this audit. Based on its history, it will not competently act on it. I realize that congress is the people’s branch and in theory the people can take back congress, but I don’t see it. Generally, the rich, the poor and the middle class all want handouts (programs). The same problems exist at the state level (you need a 'line item' veto so that one person can save one hundred legislators from themselves, and save our kids). It is appalling.
Both parties are responsible. It is just a question of who our children's money is being given to. Democrats give it to the lower classes, and conservatives give it to the rich. Democrats 'tax and spend', and conservatives 'tax cut and spend'. Take your pick. Reasonable policies that are fiscally prudent are few. Just today you have republicans criticizing a science based finding that women should delay mammograms to reduce unnecessary testing, with the added benefit of saving money. Have you heard that people can't afford their healthcare premiums and that medicare is broke? So it should be obvious to conservatives that this is sensible. No. Terrible idea. My response: “Mr. Conservative congressman, a panel of scientists studied the issue and made a finding. Medicare is broke. On what reasonable basis do you deny the finding of this panel? You are telling women that they should get costly tests in an interval that science has found to be medically unnecessary. You are adding to the healthcare costs that will be borne by society. We know that healthcare expenditures are on an unsustainable track. What is your fix? Add more tests? Deny science and posture?”
You see what I mean? It is hopeless. Even worse is the Obama administration’s immediate “cave in” on the issue. There are examples like this with both parties. Our kids will inherit all of these idiotic decisions and unsustainable systems, and it will destroy them economically, and perhaps worse. As I have said before, woe to children. In conclusion, Congress will not impose fiscal discipline on the fed. It imposes no such discipline on itself. Frank
Re: AMERICAN DREAM
it is a matter of some deep discussion, but why not loan someone a "home", a "car", a "capital purchase" and have them pay you back?
It is easy to argue that in the old days, thats what banks did. They bought a bunch of stuff, they had a personal relationship with you, and they were conservative because heck, they were taking RISK! If you wouldn't lend someone profligate, apparently with high earning power but balance sheet poor, $500K to buy a Mansion WHY SHOULD THE PUBLIC? (VIA THE BANKS?)
It all goes to a mess, when it's all about THE MONEY. Loaning people money alone, with free access to capital, BREEDS EVIL. Not the fairy tale devil pitchfork evil, but the taking advantage of society, overrisking, plundering others evil, fraud evil.
Friday Blog page is up
Direct link
http://caracommunity.com/content/blog-november-20-...
Re: What we are up against.
Nice one Kaimu. When does your syndicated column come out? I"ll buy.
TNA/TZA divergence??
Anyone notice the TNA opened at 34.81, down over 12%. I thought it was a bad tick but I bought some at 35.22 and sold at 35.66 so it is real?? The TZA was actually down .2% when I sold. Looks like someone is bailing big on the long side.
Re: Is $6,300 fair value for gold?
"Is there a country which is NOT insolvent? Is anyone's economy/currency/market based on PM?" -Grym
Ah, regarding not insolvent: Brazil, China, Middle Eastern oil-rich countries like UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and perhaps India. All currencies are essentially fiat today but the Euro does have some gold backing.
Re: Is $6,300 fair value for gold?
Thanks
I don't trust any reports from China since they have even greater media control the the US and their accounting technique is unique.