Blog for November 20, 2009 [See ADDENDUM]

Yesterday, we got a bearish m-M-m MACD histogram pattern on the daily charts of most key indexes. Today will provide confirmation of the reversal. The open will immediately test a short-term support level on the S&P (~1087) and other indexes.

I'll be looking to add to my short positions on any bounce.

Update: Just read Bill's addendum to yesterday's post. Thanks, Bill. It helps to temper my enthusiasm. ;)

accumulation zone.

FD:No position

Do your own homework

Anyone notice the TNA opened at 34.81, down over 12%. I thought it was a bad tick but I bought some at 35.22 and sold at 35.66 so it is real?? The TZA was actually down .2% when I sold. Looks like someone is bailing big on the long side.

Noront Resources Ltd (TSXV)

News of platinum intersection

Opened Thursday @ C$1.73

10am Friday @ C2.40

Volume >2M

I guess being lucky is good...I hope some chase this breakout, I sure could use the cash-flow. Remember fear is only an enemy if used indecisively per Weil.

edit:
I sold the small lot bought yesterday of RIMM, but this day trading is fun!
Perhaps not the best decision price-wise, but I am off mild margin and that is a double kill in my book.

http://tinyurl.com/y9hynj6

This is a very good AND short government report on the price outlook for natural gas. It explains alot about UNG,electricity and other
energy markets as we enter the winter.

Basically, "Heading into the winter, the prospects for natural gas markets are looking better for consumers than they have in many years. Gas prices are moderate, storage is full, and supply is plentiful."

To the downside in orderly sell-off in tech...who ordered them lower I wonder?

edit:
totally intuition because Micheal D. did load up on some back a while and DELL recently said that they were visibility making progress, so I bought a small position just mostly for a reaction/pivot/bounce and possibly more if they back and fill as I suggest they could. And of course the stop, She/He is active!

Submitted by mrmockbird (7 comments) on Thu, 11/19/2009 - 20:12 #52803

Anyone have a guess at to what the implications of this may be? War? Large bank going belly up? Anyone?

http://caracommunity.com/content/caras-commentary-...

point being, the fed charges far above the market rate to destroy currency, aka deflation. the market rate itself illustrates peoples concern with return of capital rather than return on capital.

The Plan - as you remember is to dismember the US $ to keep interest rates low, to buy tons of debt and refinance the rest cheaply, put everyone into Mansions, thereby letting the world's biggest Landlord (the Fed) try in earnest to fight the natural cycle of deflation...

Here is the latest from Pimco's Bill Gross:

Yet even if the Fed and others are becoming sensitized to the dangers of up as opposed to exclusively down asset prices, it would seem that now is not the time to be affirming their bipolarity. Asset price rebounds (aside from the historic highs in gold) have followed even more dramatic slumps. A 60% rise in the stock market does not compensate for a 60% decline. Strangely enough, investors are still out 36% of their money (Navid: obviously it should be the goal to make stockholders whole again) once this down elevator/up elevator example plays out (Navid: looks like thats what we're in for). And the simple analysis is that the private sector has still not taken the baton from government policymakers: There has been no public/private sector handoff. Bank lending is still contracting in the U.S. and weak in most other G-10 countries. Unemployment is still rising and approaching historic (ex-Depression) cyclical peaks.

Raise interest rates with 15 million jobless and 25 million part-time working Americans? All because gold is above $1,100? You must be joking or smoking – something. We will need another 12 months of 4-5% nominal GDP growth before Bernanke and company dare lift their heads out of the 0% foxhole – mini-bubbles or not. Instead, the heavy lifting or the charging of enemy lines in the case of this metaphor will likely be done by other central banks – already in Australia and Norway. In addition, and importantly, China may abandon its dollar peg within six months’ time ...With renewed upward appreciation of the yuan may come potentially volatile global asset price reactions to the downside – higher Treasury yields, and lower stock prices – which the Fed must surely be leery of before making any upward move, of its own, and before moving on, let me state the obvious, but often forgotten bold-face fact: The Fed is trying to reflate the U.S. economy.

bonus quote: money changers resemble Mammon more than archangels, and they all make too much money, including PIMCO

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Comme...

When I met CEO Ken Stowe a year ago, the setting was formal, and so was his presentation. Yesterday was an informal small group, very upbeat – and with good reason! NXG stock is up 349% in 12 months; NXG was the 7th best performer of 49 US listed gold stocks. (up 289% in Toronto, number 108 of 498 listed gold stocks). The reasons are clear: since 1/1/08, NXG has moved from 1 mine to 3; reserves have grown from 789K oz to 4M; production has been extended from 2010 to 2025; gold has grown from 42% of revenues to 75%. 2009 production target is 365K oz. of gold.

In an innately difficult, unsteady business (where Agnico Eagle and Kinross just announced terrible quarters) NXG is cash-flow positive, and has no LT debt. A graduate mining engineer, Stowe clearly relishes the task of improving an under-performing mine, or of extending a mine-life through proving up additional ounces. NXG has done both in its Australian mines (Stawell and Fosterville).

Stowe also spoke proudly of NXG’s “non-political” corporate culture, maintaining that staff, once recruited, tend not to leave. My next question was how many options are outstanding. He replied 5M, with 290M shares outstanding – very reasonable ratio. Also, there is no overhang of warrants, which spells future selling pressure for so many juniors.

My one reservation about NXG last year was exploration upside. For me, the “holy grail” is a growing mid-tier producer with a large exploration/development upside. NXG now has 3 major “lottery tickets”:

- Young-Davidson, whose reserves have increased to 2.8M oz, with ultimate potential estimated at 5-10M oz.
- Kemess North, with 4.1M reserve ounces but currently stalled by an adverse regulatory decision from the BC gov’t
- Regional exploration on the large land package encompassing the Stawell and Fosterville mines in Southeastern Australia

Stowe has also bid (unsuccessfully) on one mine in Western Australia, and vows to continue looking there for potential exploration and development projects.

He told of approaching the acquisition of the Young Davidson property with a checklist of metrics which the ore-body needed to pass in order to constitute high probability for an efficient, profitable mine. The typical exploration junior (as they drill, study and develop their “flagship” property) doesn’t know how to anticipate the requirements of the mining engineer or mine operator. I believe Stowe’s approach and track record would be better received by a senior’s corporate development team.

After all, when a senior buys resources or reserves, they’re on the hook to achieve efficient, profitable production. I expect there would be a rapport and ultimately a comfort level with Stowe, which the average “life-style” exploration geologist can’t create. That’s why, for me, a proven mid-tier producer with a large exploration upside is the “holy grail”. So far, the only candidate I had found was Rusoro. But they operate in Venezuela!!! NXG operates in Canada and Australia, and doesn’t plan to stray from its safe, secure jurisdictions – which the market prizes.

As Bill Harris of Avenue Investments often points out on BNN, there are only about a dozen mid-tier producers out there. Any one which can steadily grow its production and dramatically increase reserves in safe, secure areas of the world likely faces a very positive future as a stand-alone company (growing into senior ranks) or as a senior’s acquisition target.

I’m not used to writing such a glowing account as this. I’m sure I can count on readers to do their own due diligence, and also to comment in this forum based on what they learn.

Disclosure: previously a shareholder, but no current position.

Looks like it.
Maybe Ron Paul will have a fighting chance in the next elections? I personally like Obama, but presidents don't get reelected in big recessions/depressions/stagflations.

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Unemployment rose in 29 U.S. states in October, climbing to record levels in California, Delaware, South Carolina and Florida, government figures released today showed.

Michigan had the highest jobless rate at 15.1 percent, followed by Nevada at 13 percent and Rhode Island at 12.9 percent, the Labor Department said in Washington. The 29 states reporting an increase in unemployment compares with 22 in September.

The national rate last month reached a 26-year high of 10.2 percent, limiting consumer spending and the breadth of the economic recovery. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Nov. 17 that joblessness “likely will decline only slowly.”

“We’re still going to see the unemployment rate in many metro areas and many states rise for quite some time, going into next year,” Marisa Di Natale, a director at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “Employers won’t start hiring again until they’re confident the economy has really started to turn around and they’re convinced there’s work for them to do.”

The number of states with at least 10 percent unemployment held at 14 last month. The states reporting a record jobless rate were California at 12.5 percent, South Carolina at 12.1 percent, Florida at 11.2 percent and Delaware at 8.7 percent. The District of Columbia also set a record with an 11.9 percent rate.

Payroll Declines

Payrolls declined last month in 21 states, today’s report showed. New York showed the biggest drop, with a loss of 15,300. Florida had 8,500 job losses, followed by Georgia with 7,500 and Virginia with 7,100.

“When you apply for a job, because there are so many other people looking for jobs, you have to be the absolute perfect candidate and lucky, or be someone’s brother-in-law, to get a job,” said Mary Kough of Tellico Plains, Tennessee. “In this economy there are very few jobs for which to even apply.”

Kough has been looking for work for four months, applying for as many as 25 positions. She’s been interviewed once. The 47-year-old said she has about 20 years of experience, including jobs as a customer service manager, supervisor and purchasing agent.

“I try not to get discouraged,” Kough said. “I know that you will get a certain percentage of what you apply for, and since there are less jobs to apply for, I know it will just take a little longer. I take comfort in knowing that. I have faith.”

Tennessee’s Jobless Rate

Tennessee’s unemployment rate held at 10.5 percent in October, the Labor Department’s report showed.

Applied Materials Inc. is among companies still planning to cut jobs. The world’s biggest maker of chip equipment, based in Santa Clara, California, said Nov. 11 it plans to eliminate as many as 1,500 positions within 18 months.

Over the last year, California showed the biggest loss of jobs, with payrolls falling by 687,700 workers, today’s report showed.

Nationally, payrolls fell by 190,000 in October, the Labor Department said Nov. 6. The U.S. has lost 7.3 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007, the most of any downturn since the Great Depression.

Other measures corroborate that while firms are firing fewer workers, it is harder for the unemployed to find work. The number of people getting extended payments jumped in the week ended Oct. 31 even as the number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits held at a 10-month low last week, according to government data released yesterday.

Well,
good, detailed report.

a little long, precis ?

might consider your own blog

regards,
Allengg

That's good info there. I wonder how much of that is attributable to less demand and how much to wholesale restructuring? GS sure is taking advantage of their business plan, which shall remain confidential, by offering innocently to help those poor, literally, businesses that need a lift and a kick in the pants for those who don't have boots or a strap to their name.

I have been going in and out of GG and SLW profitably. Looking at my recent trades I can see that I left money on the table by not buying close to the low or exiting too soon. Any suggestion how I could improve my timing on these, mostly swing trades.

Isn't Intel overpriced ?

Occasionally I buy in the after hours market, prices often drop as some sellers unload.

At a P/E of 45:1 not a good traditional buy, and Intel is not that great in the computer market.

Allen - This has nothing to do with overpriced. A company the size of INTC doesn't drop $.35 after hours on no news. Just doesn't happen. Especially when the market was basically flat for the day.

Regarding its valuation, I actually really like it's valuation. I still don't understand how people look at the current p/e after what we just went through. The company is trading at 14 times it's past quarter's annualized earnings of $1.32. In addition to this it has $3/share in net cash. If you back out the net cash it is trading at 12 times earnings in an industry that is coming out of a black hole and will grow again. Growth will come from smart phones and other gadgets as well as from emerging markets and the PC upgrade cycle due to Windows 7. Typically at industry troughs or when they are on an up swing you will pay more for earnings because they will grow stronger. So I would assign a higher multiple of 17 or 18 to earnings now and then pare it back to 12 to 14 when the industry is at its peak.

Here is an important lesson on why investors should protect against big loss. On CNBC they are promoting PRGTX, TR Price Global Technology Fund that is up 100%. I decided to check the chart.

In November of 07 the high price was 8.42 and in November of 08 it hit a low of 3.52. This represents a loss of -58.2%.

Now let’s look at the results on a $1,000,000 investment.

$1,000,000
-58.2%
= 582,000

$1,000,000
-582,000
= 418,000

$418,000
+100%
= 836,000

Over a two year period this represents a loss of $164,000 or -16.4% of your money. How’s that for spin by a mutual fund company?

God works in mysterious ways :-)

Thanks for the report.

ALOHA !!

Sammas - Thanks ...

Certain things when I scan data JUMP OFF THE PAGE ...

I have posted MINSKY here before and I am a follower of STEVE KEEN, but I have not seen this latest VID presentation so thanks for the reminder.

KEEN and MINSKY follow the DEBT and so do I, which is why I publish my weekly REVENUE BREAKDOWN report on the US Treasury Daily Statement. If you watch the KEEN video on this link he explains a lot about why we are here and how to fix it, which is the complete opposite of what Bernanke and Obama have in mind. Obviously Obama may have a Harvard Degree but he is still a puppet of the US FED. What KEEN does not point out is that I believe Bernanke and even Greenspan know exactly what is going on but they are the mouth pieces of the PLANNED CHAOS that MISES speaks to in his 1947 book. Its no fluke that the same people that got us into this monetary mess for the benefit of the dual MONOPOLY are the same ones "hired" by uninformed US voters to get us out of the mess, but at the benefit of the dual MONOPOLY that I spoke of last night.

Then again KEEN mentions only the "marketable" DEBT and not the "non-marketable". The "non-marketable" DEBT is gone, so when the monetary collapse does occur there will be nothing left in any of the many US PUBLIC TRUST that now overflow with IOUs so large that they make CHINA look like a pauper! Lets hope there is something left in the US Treasury gold reserves and its not all leased out to Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan!

I am not sure how the Australian government works their "non-marketable" debt but I would suspect it is similar. I have long told the Aussies to quit copying America. They follow us into wars and will now suffer the consequences. Interesting that KEEN mentions France as the least debt burdened country. Too bad that France made the mistake of joining the EU and I am sure Germany would like to pull out as well and not have to carry the weight of the other EU deadbeat countries, but then if France and Germany pulled out now the Euro would be dog meat!

Another aspect KEEN skipped over in his historical presentation of DEBT is that after every major war the US government returned to the gold standard, except for the Vietnam War. So when you see his MONEY AND DEBT CHARTS he posts you notice that around 1972 or so they go exponential at the point of when Nixon ended the gold standard permanently. One of the most vocal opponents to that action was France, whom the USA owed quite a stash of our gold reserves to then. I do not think that France has ever forgiven us for that. Why should they? It's classic EMPIRE in your face! What was France to do? Go to War against the USA? Not after we bailed them out from NAZI occupation! Step down Mr. deGaulle! In effect Nixon defaulted on the US Dollar. Here we are!

Thank you STEVE KEEN for your MINSKY connection.

ALOHA !!

"and what are they doing with it now after the ~300% profit?"

It will be spent in ten nano-seconds. Now if that were the US Treasury selling that gold then those profits would be spent in 1/1000000th of a nano-second!

Jack Black - you ask: Maybe Ron Paul will have a fighting chance in the next elections?

He is now 74, and will be 77 at the next presidential election. At the end of a first Presidential term, he would be 81. Unlikely he could win if only for age reasons.

I think the tenor of the article is centered around political self interest which interests me greatly as the book 'The Post-American World' by Fareed Zakaria speaks to the achiles heal which is US politics. I would love to see Ron Paul's son (or anyone's son/daughter) take up the cause to remove the Fed and the embedded self interest of Wall St and Washington.

In a well timed play after the audit of the Fed bill yesterday, Buffet issues this kneeslapper:

"I think it [The Fed] has terrific leadership now. And I think that curbing the independence of the Fed could lead to a lot of mischief."

He fails to disclose

- 30% of HIS STOCKS are TARP recipient institutions. They were saved by trillions in bailouts.
- Some of them - WFC comes to mind - OWN THE FED. The idea of an independent Fed is an oxymoron. The Fed is a PRIVATE INSTITUTION - the STOCK OWNERS ARE THE BANKS. Perhaps it SHOULD BE TRULY INDEPENDENT, a function of government.
- The FED has become a gargantuan Marshmallow man, eating mortgage backed securities, from the banks, and debt of all nature...printing fresh cash and sending bills to the taxpayer (in the trillions). Marshmallow Man's tactics are saving nobody in the economy but the banks and major institutions and their executives.
- Nobody is saying that Nancy Pelosi should be making monetary policy

What "mischief" is he talking about, and why is he not talking about the mischief right under our noses? This man is becoming a menace to society. I say that in all seriousness.

Don't let his grand-pa ways get to you. This is about controlling the money supply - which is what the Fed is about.

ALOHA !!

Buffet joins the long list of "sellouts" ... He will regret this legacy!

Not but a few years ago he was running the largest USD short position($19BIL) and had in his possession 140mil ounces of silver! And then the first SEC probe of GENERAL RE started .... HUMMMMM??? Then Goldman re-weighted the GSCI and the POG and POS tanked ... More HUMMMM??? Now Buffet is the largest shareholder of Goldman Sachs ... No more silver ... No more USDX shorts ... Even more HUMMMM??? Seems he got "religion" the US FED way!

Placed a sell limit order on 1/3 of my TWM at $30.23, to make sure that I take *some* profits if they do appear.

Ron Paul's legislation came out of the House Financial Services Committee in it's "full audit" form and is scheduled for a vote Dec. 1st.
Hence, I predict a financial crisis coming soon to a theatre near you.

HR 1207 call your congressman's office - we deserve the transparency that was promised us, after all, we're the ones paying for it!

Many thanks.
This info is very useful.

Thanks for links to Bill Murphy appearance ,Bill.I have been searching earlier today for it and couldnt find.

I don't care what you call it but it's happening. Brazil taxing ADR to prevent outside money, hong kong making hawkish comments saying they can't raise rates because that would create a situation where groups borrow free usd and import/invest in hong kong.

Check out the 2 yr treasury yield. Why are so many people locking up cash for no return, if the stock market is such a safe buy now? Also check out when the 2yr yield was this low? About dec 08.

"The sheer amount of cognitive dissonance and mixed messages we are getting is starting to get overwhelming. "The Recovery" is on the lips, but "continued long term unemployment" and "double dip" is in the heart."

Agree about the mixed signals, but as Marc Faber said recently, the worse economy gets, the more equities will raise, due the torrent of liquidity released by the central banks. Lets not forget the many 1000% of equity rise in Zimbabwe and German Wiemar.

Besides the fact that small caps (IWM) and the financials (XLF) did not confirm the recent high in S&P, I have just noticed a few more important non-confirmations.

First, the advance-decline line used to look bad only for IWM and the financials, but recently it started looking bad even for S&P itself. Second, the North America Investment Grade (NA-IG) index, which tracks S&P very well, keeps making lower highs since September (i.e., the high in mid-October was lower than the one in mid-September, and the high a couple of days ago was lower than the one in mid-October). The NA-IG spread (relative to 5-year Treasuries) keeps making higher lows. So the credit market is slowly getting unglued, and the weakness in the credit market coupled with a weakness in financial stocks in late 2007 was the early warning of the 2008 bear market.

Barry Ritholtz selects his quote of the day:

“We’re in the midst of a deflationary trend that is temporarily being masked by inventory restocking and free lunches like Cash for Clunkers. Consumers are done with borrowing. They’ll keep refueling the deflation by going through their attics and garages to find stuff they can sell on Ebay to raise cash.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&si...

Is there a way to get the RSI calculation for Japanese stocks?
I tried to input the numbers such as 7203.t (for Toyota) or 4911.t (Shiseido), but it seems that the system does not identify anything, because I can't get any result.

10 Reasons to Buy Activision Blizzard :

http://tinyurl.com/yjfds8o

A question for the weekend...

Until this year I have avoided excessive trading in my taxable account. Since most of my higher yielding investments are in my tax-deferred account it kept life simpler. This year I switched the taxable to an annual fee and have a lot of ST trades to account for.

I know many of you trade far more than I — isn't this a huge headache at tax time?

Barron was the "good guy" in Aurelian, and the most respected geo in the finding of 14M oz of high-grade gold in Ecuador - the best discovery in 20+ years.

He talks very impressively about metallurgy, mining costs, fate of various types of juniors, mid-tiers, and seniors. Worth a listen:

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-1121...

Several columns from the Globe and Natl Post made for a good collection related to corruption in America: reprint of Wall Street Journal article "How A Sell Rating led to an analyst's Downfall"; Fairfax Delisting from NYSE (and their experience with corrupt & powerful US hedge funds); Diane Francis' recap of the laughable antics of Goldman Sachs and their fake PR thrust. Time after time, article after article, the corruption in America is summarized for our complacent populations to survey. Too bad that there are few stories related to actions being taken to counter this fraud. At some point, you would wonder if the Star Spangled Banner should be displaced by the theme song for the short-lived tv show, "Who Do You Trust".

Dr. Strangelove,

Thanks for the concise summation.

Resets will be influenced by new rule changes implemented by the FED and government regulators which will allow banks to ignore the net current asset value of the property, if the borrower's payments are current when its time to roll the note. Banks can maintain the original asset value of the loan and do not have to increase reserves even though the property may only be worth half of the original loan amount. The loan officer will say "Sure, we can roll over that $500M loan even though the current value of of your building is only $275M. No problem We'll just pretend it is still worth what it was when we made the original loan. Sign here."

I'd guess that means if the borrower can cover the payments with current income... they would choose to refi.

However for those who cannot generate enough income to pay the reset bank note will be turning over the keys to the front door.

More fantasy accounting to maintain the facade surrounding the true current asset value of the banks who financed the commercial real estate bubble.

I found this today and really enjoyed the stunning imagery of our planet. Worth a look, I think.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqxENMKaeCU

David - I hear what you're saying but how does this compare to prior periods? Is this normal? I think we need to determine that first before saying that it must mean it's a topping process. What I have seen is first small caps and highly leveraged companies rally hard, then I have seen blue chips and larger companies with good balance sheets rally. I don't see anything wrong with that so far...

ALOHA !!

Its been tried ... they're still trying to reinvent the guillotine using an Excel spreadsheet. Talk about "barbarous relics" ... Jeez, get some new economists Obama, ones that have no Harvard and Princeton credentials. Come on let's get this thing movin' ...

"Government spending cannot create additional jobs. If the government provides the funds required by taxing the citizens or by borrowing from the public, it abolishes on the one hand as many jobs as it creates on the other.” – Ludwig Von Mises from his book PLANNED CHAOS (1947).

Thank you for posting Mackinaw, excellent.

teamonfuego -

It's not time to buy CRE. It's going a lot lower. Remember that CRE trends do not change on a dime like securities (REITs, miners, resorts, railroads, and perhaps a few others traded on public exchanges being the exceptions). It takes months and years for those leases to expire and reset lower or vacate. Although one of the greatest investment vehicles, real estate is illiquid. It can take years just to sell a piece of property, not the nano-second to click a button. Just go ask your average homebuilder with a few hundred or a few thousand lots in inventory. Just go ask anybody who made a CRE deal in the past five years before the financial crisis hit with a max debt ready to reset in the next two years if they'd sell at the cost of the debt outstanding right now and my guess is that 99.5% would say where do I sign.

As for the banks, it's a fools game of extend and pretend. At the same time, except for those uber deals, the banks are in credit lock down here in Michigan. There's no chance to finance a CRE purchase. So if CRE is showing signs of life, I'd like to know how the new debt can be obtained by Joe Buyer.

Sam Zell, who sold the largest U.S. office portfolio at the very peak of the market, is only buying debt collateralized by CRE right now based on his comments at a conference in Chicago two weeks ago. He's not taking deeds but probably using massive lines of bank credit (not counted as bank reserves) to buy the best CRE debt held by said bank. I can tell you those big CRE deals you sighted have some brutal undisclosed contingencies like master rent guarantees extending to somewhere over the rainbow.

Cheers.

Vad remarked that it's been a scalpers market the last couple of weeks. Perhaps this goes some way to explaining it?:

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/trading-markets/tradin...

Vad, what say you?

ALOHA !!

I am excited to report that Senator Akaka, now 85 years old, contacted me today regarding a letter I had sent to him some three months ago regarding the line item listed as UNCLASSIFIED on the US Treasury Daily Statement. I will publish his reply in my next weekly REVENUE BREAKDOWN report, verbatim, but in essence he says that the US Treasury knows what those funds are for but neither he nor the US Taxpayers can know. While I have complained that the OTHER summary line item and the detail never add up I take it by what Senator Akaka does not say that there is just too many huge piles of money sloshing around the US Treasury and they cannot possibly account for it all on a daily basis much less provide any sort of accurate details.

As a US citizen and a US Taxpayer I am required to account for all my business deductions on schedules. If I have a daily or 3day, weekly or monthly payroll deposit requirement I am required to make those deposits in a timely manner or I am penalized. I am required as a business to make daily entries to record all transactions, which I use QuickBooks, which I had to pay some $600 for the software. There exists a double standard and US citizens are on the short side of it.

I guess now I am on Senator Akaka's "hit list"! HA!! I have two US Senators after me now. Ensign in Nevada and now Akaka here in Hawaii. So far only one of them refers to me as a "Marxist subversive". Only a career politician could read my weekly REVENUE BREAKDOWN and call me a "Marxist" ... "subversive" ... hummmm ... debatable.

As of November 19th the sum total for the UNCLASSIFIED line item was at $64BIL USD. That's $64BIL in 34 days or $2BIL per day that gets tossed into the black hole labeled UNCLASSIFIED. Total outlays on that same day was $1.68TRIL USD, which includes direct expenditures and only the "marketable" US DEBT redemptions. This means that approximately 4% of all total US Treasury outlays and debt exist somewhere that not even my own Senator can say where. He gave me a long distance phone number to call, but when I looked it up it was the same one posted online at the FMS website, which I have called before and e-mailed with no reply.

Now let me list the various Committees that Senator Akaka sits on:
1-Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs
2-Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs
3-Indian Affairs
4-Veterans Affairs

Please note the Senate Committee listed at #1.

Just so you know my other Senator is Inouye and he is 4 days older than Akaka, both 85 years old. Inouye has been a Senator since 1963, for 46 years and in the House in 1959, that's 50 years in Congress. Inouye is a very powerful career politician. Sen Akaka has been in the Senate for 19 years. Both are Democrats and neither I have ever voted for.

If it means anything at the very bottom of the letter in small font it reads "PRINTED ON RECYCLED PAPER".

Mahalo ...

God Sucks!

Because I know I am alive
and can do nothing about it
it happens when I thrive
it happens when I sit

Because there is danger
not because it exist
there is anger
that I can't seem to resist

Because their are choices
that we must make
so many voices
which road shall we take?

Because I know what I see
no, not what I think!
how can this be!
our world is on the brink

Because there is love
it exist you know
coming from above and down from below

Because we are stuck in the middle
or so it seems
that God sucks
as we awake from our dreams

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Swine flu infections in which the virus mutated to a form that’s more severe or less sensitive to drug treatment are being investigated by European and U.S. public health officials.

Five patients at a hospital in Wales contracted swine flu that resisted treatment with Roche Holding AG’s Tamiflu...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&si...

Les,

I am at loss a little about this article... here is why.

On one side, an author notices a certain pattern emerged, observes it, makes certain conclusion and works out corrections to his trading strategies. Let's leave aside the discussion about how new really the pattern is - I for one don't see it as anything new but rather well-know and becoming more and less active one at different times; in fact, I remember answering a few months ago on this very forum about how to incorporate this very kind of shakeouts in one's trading. Let's just state that article ends with suggestions how to adapt one's trading to account for the change observed - and this is what traders do. Beautiful, I am all for it.

On another, there is this "ah darn computers with their high frequency algorithms are out to get me"... and this is where author loses me completely. Who says it's computers? And if it's they, who programs them if not other traders? What does "tampering" mean - are computer-generated trades not a part of the tape? What difference does it make, whether it's computers or simply other traders? Is it HFT or is ir simply normal market process where each pattern goes through its life cycles: appearing, blossoming, becoming too obvious, getting faded, weakening, going into oblivion, reappearing... We will talk about these cycles on CTA conference in Freeport; they exist as long as market does - so why the necessity for this "new" explanation for a very old phenomenon? My only guess is, to use this lately very popular conspiracy to win hearts of those who love conspiracies... To each their own methods of marketing, I'll limit myself to commenting on trading merits and suggest that readers do the same.

Bill:
A while back, you had indicated you were interested in putting together a Ring of Fire fund. Has anything ever become of this. Or are there too many pans in the fire. At some point, I would love to hear anything you may have to say about this area.
Thanks for all your time you put into this site.

ALOHA !!

ASX closed up some 32 points. meanwhile the POG in USD is up $12USD to $1164USD and POG in AUD is up $7AUD to $1265AUD while the AUD is up as well against the USD at .92.

ASX PEM, CTO unchanged while SRL up 2%, SLR up 8% and SAU up 14%.

I wonder if the US FED and the US Treasury and all the slick fraudsters like GS and JPM have accounted for how fast their con games are being discovered now that the internet is in play. I think back to the late 1970s at the last big GOLD BULL and really people back then were disconnected compared to the internet revolution now. What did we have back then a phone, telex and a TV and some minor electronic communications advances like the MOJO, the first prototype fax machines. Really though it was primitive system as now you can get stock quotes on you phone. I think back and I really could not be writing a weekly article on the US Treasury like I am now because of all the time I would be spending doing research, driving to libraries, calling people for info. As it is I just sit here in the jungles of Hawaii and do all my research online with the click of a mouse. In terms of fundamentals and fraud detection at major financial institutions like the US FED and the US Treasury research and the dispersing of research can be done in nano-seconds. In a mouse click I can have research at 20,000 desks around the World. That must really put a crimp in the US FED's breathing room. It must be chocking their air supply over there and creating a whole new challenge in terms of PR. We're onto them within hours. Within hours we can be at our Senators throat with faxes and e-mails. In the past there was no time and we'd just read about the Senate vote the next day in the newspaper. While GS may have faster trading computers it must be a bit unnerving for them to know that the masses are armed with nano-second technology as well. The least little slip of the tongue and "God's Work" is amplified by the billions and broadcast to every corner of the World in less time than it takes Lloyd to say, "OOPPS"!

Man, thank you Al Gore for inventing such an exceptional and priceless technology. You need another Nobel Prize for your internet thingy! GOOD JOB GOREY!

Looks like another in a long, long line of gap ups this morning. With the buck down to around 75, SPX futures are up +11. Looks like melt up is back on. Time to close out any remaining shorts and wait for the next opportunity.

I won't link it from here but it can be found in youtube for those out of the states who cannot access NBC content like myself.

Funny, yet sadly a reflection of the state of media that a comedy channel must mock US foreign relations in order to shed a sliver of truth to the public. So be it.

warning: some vulgarity - not for young audience.

Bill,I thought this article interesting,especially the part touching on the U.S. market http://tinyurl.com/yg4ermo and the power of CASH. A comment by Charles Lee at the bottom of the article is both provocative and yet distantly possible as a solution to slashing the Gordian knot that is chocking the life out society. The socialists once confiscated other peoples gold wealth to put an end to a past problem . Might they have set a precedent for someone else to end this problem? The rule of law is gone , see contract law . Its possible. Bob "the US dollar is a ship running aground only supported by CHINA out of fear....over their 2 trillion dollars in US govt. debt."

Don't eliminate the possibility that the USA will walk away from the colossal debt mountain that previous generations of profligate Americans have inflicted on today's Americans.
Imagine an America with its vast natural resources, industrial base, technological advantages and entrepreneurial people freed of this burden.
Who would not want to forgive the default, trade with this resurgent America and get their hands on the New Dollar?
What could the Chinese do?
Thank America for helping them to build up their manufacturing base that they can now keep busy.
What could the Japanese do?
Thank America for keeping them safe from foreign aggression without having to spend money on their own military machine.
What could the oil states do?
Thank the West for actually digging the holes in the ground that have made them as rich as Croesus.
What could Britain do (we have very large holdings of US Treasuries)?
Hope for favoured treatment from the new Mega Power.
A US default on debt is the only answer.
Don't eliminate the possibility.

Charles Lee
on November 22, 2009
at 09:03 AM
Report this comment

"St. Louis Fed member Bullard said over the weekend that he favors extending the Fed’s program of purchasing mortgage-backed securities beyond the 1st Q next year.

This adds many more months to the low rates for an ‘extended period of time.’ His comments have pummeled the US Greenback, and as the dollar fell, stock futures soared. Gold hit fresh record highs."

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/dovish-fed-co...

Thanks!

Outrageously funny way of telling the story.

ALOHA !!

davidfairtex - Thanks for the article. I read it all. This guy points to Matthew Simmons a lot, so I am going to assume that he believes in PEAK OIL, although he does not exactly come out and say that in this article. Perhaps he has in past articles, but I do not follow von Altendorf.

Here again government and agencies like the SEC play too much a part in what happens to your stock portfolio. Just like the watering down of accounting principles by FASB, the SEC is watering down reserve calcs, but both play to the complete "credibility" of the entire system. It goes "credibility > CONFIDENCE > trust". Once trust is gone why bother and therein lies the true issue in the World today. Just who or what can you trust when all trust is gone? Well the answers go back to Biblical times and the US CONSTITUTION. Its a LIABILITY BUBBLE.

When Carter was President he slapped the good old WINDFALL PROFIT TAX onto the US major oil companies. My Father was high up at Chevron Exploration then and he told me what Carter just did was to kill off all US based exploration and production. Why would Chevron continue to explore and produce in a country where the government stifles profits? Back then he told me it was cheaper for Chevron to cap all wells in the USA and just buy oil from the Middle East and ship it all the way to Houston, TX for refining than it would be for Chevron to commit to the exploration costs and then production costs to bring oil right out of the Gulf a hundred miles away from the Houston refineries. So it isn't enough for the various Fed and State governments to raise the price of gas at the pumps over 50% from their taxes but now they must directly tax the oil company profits as well with additional WINDFALL PROFIT on top of the other income taxes already in place! What WINDFALL do they refer to? Where is the WINDFALL PROFIT TAX on Goldman Sachs profits or Google? Carter and more to the point the greedy US Congress in all their wisdom ended many Americans jobs when they started the WINDFALL PROFIT TAX! Can it be more simple? TAXATION ENDS JOBS!! I swear they must be hiring former USSR consultants on how to run America. Over the decades my Father showed me through seismic maps and the analysis reports he was working on that there still is oil in America. In Alaska, the Channel Islands off the California coast(which he was big on), the Gulf of Mexico and the capped fields everywhere from the Dakotas to the Austin Chaulk and the Haynesville Shale. Every time I read these kinds of reports, especially now, I then ask myself, "Well, why has Cheasepeake Oil handed my Mother many checks in the many six figures for rights to drill as they are now paving a road to access Wellman #1?" Is Cheasepeake that stupid? God, if they are then I wouldn't ever want to be a shareholder! I really do not think Cheasepeake is that stupid but more to the point I definitely do not think my Father was, otherwise Chevron wouldn't have had the Lake Maracaibo oilfield in Venezuela or the Barrow Island field off the coast of Western Australia and for sure Cheasepeake wouldn't be handing us checks now.

What sticks out like soar thumb in all these instances is why we Americans have put up with this ridiculous ever expanding-ever meddling government and this complete fraud of a monetary system for so long, whereby we have allowed DEBT to rule us! It's all very simple kick out BIG GOVERNMENT and kick out the US FED and its member banks. Let them all move back to the UK and Russia where kings and oligarchs belong! They have proven to me without a doubt that they are abject failures time and time again. We need to get them out of our way so we can go about the business of reviving our Nation and its People. They've got us all on life support in terms of jobs and foreign dependency all the while the US Dollar is down to the last 4% of its original value. I honestly don't think the two MONOPOLIES running America now could have made a better plan to destroy America than their decades long plan for a STRONG DOLLAR POLICY! Business in America is so hamstrung by either government regulations and anti-profit tax laws with stacked legal issues and environmental issues and union greed that business just leaves America. They cap their wells and leave and take all the jobs with them. There is no incentive and when incentive is gone then you know you are living in a Socialist state. I can only pray that someday within my lifetime the People of this Nation will rise up and then one day I will hear the terms PEAK CONGRESS and PEAK FED!