Blog for November 27, 2009 [See ADDENDUM]

How sickening is this. Read this article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...

Clearly HSBC is at major risk of a default in Dubai. Then read this:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34168049

If there ever was proof that HB&B should not be trusted, this is it.

EDIT:
Now this was supposedly a shocking development that no one knew about. Well I ask you why were banks the weakest heading into this? Why were some bank stocks down 20% in the past few weeks? This is more than conspiracy stuff...this is real.

Hi All - Was planning to take the day off, but with the typical 30 year mortgage (no points) generally about +1.3 to 1.5% over the ten year yield I need to head in and lock some up before the party is over when the government can't keep buying Fannie/Freddie mortgage backed securities. Happy Trading

of price stability should require not only a commitment to stabilize prices in the future but also a policy of actively reflating the economy to restore the price level that prevailed prior to the prolonged period of deflation..... Because deflation implies falling prices while the target price level rises, the failure to end deflation in a given year has the effect of increasing what I have called the price level gap "... Ben Bernanke... Japan, 2003...
As Jim Grant ( Grants Observer ) said, " Bernanke did not bother to distinguish between prices that fall on account of a banking or credit crisis vs. those that fall on account of productive technology or improvements in economic organization. It was all the same to him ( Bernanke ), and all bad "....
This comes from Bill Fleckenstein this week... His Point ? That inflation is not exactly the high mark on the Fed's list of things to do... This is the heart and soul of Bernanke, and it is mind boggling.. Print, Print, Print...

Submitted by Grym (1494 comments) on Fri, 11/27/2009 - 08:25 #53252 (in reply to #53248)

"On Dubai, it is not a small issue. It is a symbol of the large scale financial problems that are still out there. It is not that there is this one bad 30B deal in a sea of solvency. Just the opposite."

Yes!

If (when) Bernake is reappointed it will also be a symbol.

I hope my friends still in denial will realize just what is the sad and sick reality we are facing at all levels — individually we can still do something — at city,state and national levels reality is about to emerge and trump the pretenders to the detriment of us all.

This Thanksgiving period I am thankful my parents and those of my wife did not live to see a return to what they always most feared post Great Depression.

Will rates begin to rise? How far can they go before they cause extreme problems? Not far I hope, bankrupcies in canada were up 47% from a yr ago.

What is the concensus on rates rising?

How's the market going to react to C, since C has a committed backer in that king abdu dhabi (sp?,) the same backer of Dubai's over funded real estate expansion?
Seems when this financial mess started, king abdu was pouring millions into c to keep them from going under. I call it averaging down.
Maybe the US taxpayers can bail out king dhabi and dubai via tarp 3 for C?
What a financial mess HB&B!

Prince Alwaleed Talal was the one pouring millions into C.

FSLR - price target lowered at Thomas Weisel to $150 from $180. Sees 2010 as a transitional year for FSLR. 2009 and 2010 EPS estimates set at $7.36 and $6.22, respectively. Maintain Overweight rating.

I wonder is this the opportunity to load up on precious metals?

The new Tres. Secretary at work already?

JP Morgan: Stop Freaking Out, The UAE Can Easily Save Dubai

"The view from our MENA team is that this event reflects cash flow challenges rather than refinancing ability. They believe that obligations on Dubai World and its property unit Nakheel PJSC are likely to be fulfilled at the new May 2010 earliest repayment date, and that Dubai should be eventually be able to fulfill its debt obligations maturing in the short-term ($4bn in Dec-09, relating to Dubai World, and $9 to $10 in 2010) with continued Abu Dhabi support. Abu Dhabi is strong financially with fiscal and current account surpluses, ~$150bn in FX reserves and a ~$300bn sovereign wealth fund. However it seems that Abu Dhabi will no longer be happy to underwrite all debt, and rather will differentiate more strongly between supporting Dubai's strategically important assets (such as DEWA, and Dubai Ports), and the non strategic assets – hence the concurrent timing of the Dubai World debt restructure and the Abu Dhabi underwritten government of Dubai debt raising."

From http://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-stop-freak...

which ones are you looking at?

I'm with you Grym and now have a substantial position in GG. Missed to load up on SLW below 16. Maybe next week.

Sorry Bill; I must have been in a stupar cause I was waiting for the older blog to...

I will re-post my reply to your reply. Warning may be dated and/or situational(y) compromised:

Re: Question for Bill
Submitted by TN_blogger (527 comments) on Fri, 11/27/2009 - 11:01 #53262 (in reply to #53243)

Thanks; hope all is well. You did deserve the rest and now to work, which I can tell you love from the bottom of your heart...silly or useful structural devices, why does it have to be bottom...could just as easily be top or center.

I, like yourself can only hope normalcy will return to these markets, whatever that is; but it sure would lower my blood pressure.

Yes being a word, one of many powerful words, the SPX level is quite the spectacle. I guess it all will work itself out. If it doesn't then the end should be quick, to quote that character trying to capture what I do not quite know, but the phrase seemed appropriate to the moment...time will tell.

David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception
November 26, 2009
We’ve spent two weeks traveling almost 20,000 miles and visiting three cities: Tokyo, Hanoi & Singapore. Meetings included quality time spent with central bankers, investors, pension fund managers, academics, commercial bankers, and others. It has been a whirlwind and well worth the fatigue.
We will summarize the observations with some key points.
Our trip confirms that the Asian emerging-market story is real and is likely to accelerate. This is not just a China story, and folks who view it that way are making a mistake. China is the largest player in the region, but the others need respect. This conclusion is true for newly emerging economies and markets like Vietnam (devaluation of currency notwithstanding) and for seasoned and established ones like Singapore.
At Cumberland, our global portfolio strategy maintains an overweighted position on non-Japan Asia. Asian emerging markets are a terrific story. This is true both for the fledgling ones and for the largest one, China. There are many in the region and they need to be examined separately. We will be going back to Shanghai and Hong Kong in January for another look at the region and to examine how US policy is playing out there. Or should I say, how US policy is failing miserably to play out there. More on that below, but first let’s wrap up the Japan report.
We are still not ready to take the Japan weight to a bullishly overweighted position. That may come after next summer’s Japanese elections, and if the new government is strong enough and determined enough to change policy. Both the electoral outcome and the willingness to change policy are open questions. It is the present policy that keeps the yen very strong and keeps deflationary forces at work in Japan. Government officials know it but are not yet compelled to change. Many there believe that a stable price level or a slightly falling price level is a better choice than an inflation-prone policy. Many reject the Bernanke approach of massive monetization. They heard his lecture many years ago and have taken a different view. We shall see what unfolds now that those in Japan have the opportunity to watch Bernanke apply the policy that they rejected. In sum, the final chapters of this book on Japan and deflation and on QE and inflation are not yet written.
Now to the regional takeaway from our trip
We believe that few trust the United States. This is obvious in private conversation. And it is clear to all that confidence in the dollar is low. This is mostly mentioned only in private.
In public there is quiet response when the Treasury Secretary of the United States utters words about a strong dollar. Asians have heard that for years and with the many different accents of the various Treasury Secretaries. Geithner would serve the country better by ceasing to mouth the same words that his predecessor Snow and others used. He is not believed. Frankly, in some circles he is actually seen as an incompetent political hack. He is blamed by some for the insufficiency of the New York Fed under his presidency to supervise the primary dealers that failed – Countrywide, Bear Stearns, and Lehman. And the ethics issues surrounding the NY Fed under his tenure are viewed as appalling; this continues to surface in private conversations. Some folks are puzzled about why Obama maintains his support for Geithner. Some just attribute it to the President’s inexperience as a leader.
My takeaway is that our present Secretary of the Treasury is seriously and sustainably injuring the image of the United States. He has lost credibility. His actions are real and they impact markets. My conversations with those who are attempting to market GSE securities to Asians and getting rebuffed are validation enough for me on this point. When the Fed stops buying GSE mortgage backed securities, this reality will hit the markets in a re-pricing of that asset class. Spreads are going to widen.
The American federal budget deficits are worrisome everywhere. Policy promises from Washington to reduce them are greeted with great skepticism. Often they are privately described as American arrogance. Publicly, Asians are very polite and do not often subject their guests to embarrassing criticism. Privately they are quite candid. In my view they are correct: America is arrogant and seems to pretend that it is still the best and most trustworthy financial and capital market in the world. There is no basis for the US to have such a view of itself. We have squandered our reputational capital as a financial center leader.
This recent financial crisis is quite different from its predecessors. In 1997-1998, the Asian currency crisis and Russian ruble collapse wasn’t viewed as America’s responsibility. We didn’t cause it. We didn’t cause the 1994 Mexican peso crisis either. And while we contributed to the tech-stock bubble, we weren’t the only ones to do so. But the last two years of Madoff scandal, federal agency failure, rating agency restatement, bond insurer demise, Fed primary dealer (Lehman) bankruptcy, and mortgage securitization deception (CDOs) are all Made in the USA. We led the world into crisis. We caused it. And we haven’t fixed it.
To Asian eyes it appears that this American-made tragedy continues to this day. Proposals for reforms in America are greeted abroad with skepticism and doubt. The political structure of America is seen as a weakness. And confidence abroad is falling, just as it is at home.
Some will view our conclusions as harsh. Maybe so. But the lists of American-made errors that have cost the world billions are factually correct. Say what you want, but Madoff WAS regulated by the SEC, Fannie IS a federal agency, and AAA used to be a respected rating that that has turned out to mean nothing.
This is not just a Democrat or Republican critique. Both political parties have failed the country miserably and both are seen as contributing to the mess, from the Asian perspective. Personally I agree. Our Washington leadership under this president and under the last one has proven to be impoverished. The money influence in politics seems to have overwhelmed any sense of centering ethics.
We come back from this trip more determined than ever that investors must protect themselves. The starting point for that defense is an old principle: diversification of risk. To do that they must take a global view. And Americans need to be very critical of US policy and distrusting of their politicians.
Cumberland’s recommendations include worldwide diversification of security risk and worldwide diversification of currency exposure. Favor spread product in the fixed-income area and avoid US Treasury securities. View all positions as subject to change in strategic ways. Require independent verification of credit rating opinions and do not depend solely on rating agencies. And be prepared to change course as events unfold. Act prospectively and preemptively and not reactively.
Lastly, separate the silos of investment approaches. This may seem self-serving to say, but we believe that the separation of investment management, brokerage, and custody is needed to insure safety. At Cumberland that has always been our view. Not one of our managed client’s accounts had any money exposed to Madoff, Sanford, or any others of their ilk. Separate silos prevent that risk and allow for audit trails.
Cumberland does not take custody of client’s assets; they are held by investment firms or banks. Cumberland believes that a separately managed bond account must be able to “trade away” from the firm where it is domiciled and in whose “wrap” program it is placed. We will not manage an account where we cannot trade independently.
We are finding this view acceptable worldwide. As the globe grows, investors and financial professionals are becoming more and more skilled at their work and less and less trusting of governments and policies. They have good reason, in our view. This approach works for Asians and needs to be the foundation of investing for Americans.
We are often asked if we are optimistic about the future. For the world as a whole the answer is yes. Most of the world is seeking growth and peaceful economic outcomes that enhance the quality of life.
We are less optimistic for the US. Our longer-term trends are working against us. We have squandered our political capital and are neglecting the education of our youth. We practice polices of subsidy and deceit instead of self-determination and transparency.
No, we are not about to abandon our country; we have deep respect for our entrenched American traditions of freedom. But we are directing the harshest of criticism against our politicians of both parties. They are equally accountable and responsible for the mess we have. If only we could limit them – but the citizens are not yet angry enough to do that.
When we Americans have had enough, the voters will throw many of the bums out and start over. That will be a great day of celebration in America. We expect that others in the world will join the celebration. I hope that day arrives sooner, not later. By the way, financial markets will anticipate this change and be moving higher before the votes are actually counted. Markets measure change with sensitivity and find the pulse of that change before events are widely known.
Speaking of events, we built a little cash reserve in the US stock market accounts in the run-up to the Thanksgiving holiday. The Dubai World debt crisis has contagion risk. Insolvency cannot be permanently papered over by excess liquidity, not in the Middle East nor, for that matter, in America. In our global portfolios we are underweight the UK and have zero ETF exposure to the Persian Gulf states. Readers are directed to the Gartman letter. Dennis Gartman identified this Dubai risk well in his Thanksgiving Day missive. At Cumberland, we want to see the market make the adjustment for this risk before we resume a fully invested posture.
In America we have much to be thankful for. Our great freedoms are our strength. Our ability to speak and write with openness and to articulate diverse views is a powerful force. Our press is permitted to investigate and disclose. Our courts are honest and our legal systems include entrenched respect for individual rights. World travel confirms that for me every trip. I worry for my country but I still love it.
Happy Thanksgiving. Stay safe.
David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, email: david.kotok@cumber.com

Nice trade, bw. In the last hour it's looking like those who bought the open are taking profit. Monday's open is anyone's guess, I believe, as I expect we'll have a lot more spin around the "contained" nature of the Dubai situation.

I'm still short, but I'll concede I'm wrong if the S&P moves above its recent highs.

"The regulators and HB&B do not want to give us 24-hour trading for a simple reason. We would organize ourselves into global teams and compete against those players. In order for them to win, they need us trading at a disadvantage, and clearly we do."

No, say it isn't so...why would we want to give license, let alone civility, to people to organize like that? After all that would call into question "Gods work".

I did look at $FTSE; not that I understood what I saw, but someone understood the mechanations (can I use that word? i will add it to my personal lexicon); as a concept being a mechanic is simple and regarding its subtleties profound.

From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard today:

The gold story — essentially — is that the rising economic powers of Asia, the Middle East, and the commodity bloc are rejecting Western fiat currencies. China, India, and Russia have all been buying gold on a large scale over recent months.

Why should that stop when the AAA club of sovereign debtors is pushing towards the danger threshold of 100pc of GDP?

These new players account for almost all the accumulation of foreign currency reserves worldwide over the last five years, so what they do matters enormously.

After crunching the numbers, Mr Jen found that the share of gold in their reserves is just 2.2pc compared to 38pc for the Old World (perhaps we should just call them the deadbeats from now on). They would have to buy $115bn of gold at current prices to raise their bullion to just 5pc of total reserves, and $700bn to reach just half western levels.

The killer-term here is at current prices since any such move in the tiny global market for gold would send prices into the stratosphere.

http://tinyurl.com/yg5v6t4

ALOHA!!

I follow the US Treasury Daily Statement closely and not because it is some sort of under the radar be-all-end-all indicator, but because it follows the biggest money printing crime syndicate ever created. I will defer to the long standing wisdom on Mises when he wrote, "No Nation need ever fear of running out of money."

One of the "key" line items I watch is that of Defense Vendors and for the longest time I have seen the average outlay per day running in the $1-$1.5BIL range at the end of the Bush regime as I see it now under Obama's control that line item is increasingly starting with a $2 handle. For instance Nov 24th is at $2.5BIL USD on that day. Now this single line item does not contain the only indicator, as the "Military Active Duty" line item has also been rising. Even those two line items by themselves do not encompass total military spending, but they do offer up a trend and that trend is UP! Why this increasing military build up? Just as Bill detects that HB&B has seen the Dubai incident coming way ahead of time I also believe that the PENTAGON(the military version of HB&B)sees something on the horizon as well. I will bet it is Pakistan, as the US military is a hairs breath away from invasion anyway, what with daily drone intervention and daily "military advisor" encroachment. As I recall back to the days of the Vietnam War we sent "military advisors" into South Vietnam prior to full scale War. The question remains ... will the Pakistani government invite America? Or will we just invite ourselves like we did in Iraq and Afghanistan? Then the further question becomes, under such a renewal of Shock & Awe 3, where will our "allies" stand? Will the UK and Australia be at our side again? Can they afford to be engaging in full scale war again is the real question, as their debt levels rise up and the banks plunder their economies? One of the most "inflationary" actions any government can take is to go to War. The costs are huge as we are essentially going into huge debt in order to destroy infrastructure and economies en masse. To render entire countries and their inhabitants "defeated", not just morally and psychologically but "defeated" economically as their accumulated wealth goes down the drain and is removed from within its borders probably for longer than most of us will be alive.

I believe Pakistan is more of a threat than Iran simply because Pakistan holds many, many already functional nuclear bombs and material to make more than Iran possesses. I would bet Pakistan is the reason for the Defense Vendor and Active Military Duty line items recent increases.

The radical REVENUE BREAKDOWN in US tax revenues signaled in Q4 2008, at the Matt Trivisonno Withholding Tax Charts, told me to get heavy into PM. The radical DEBT ISSUANCE going on at the US Treasury coupled with absolutely radical outlays over the past 8 months on the US Treasury Daily Statement tells me many more USD down days ahead. An invasion of Pakistan would completely shut up most global central banks BS about the falling USD, unless they want to take on a Taliban with nuclear weapons. I doubt it ... Why else did they hire the US military if it wasn't to be WORLD POLICE and do all their dirty work? That is how Empire works. There has to be a perceived "pay-off" to be WORLD POLICE. You do not become WORLD POLICE without World Reserve Currency status. I suspect those central banks on that occasion of Shock & Awe 3 will fall in line and "competitively devalue" their exports. And thus Empire is really just an Empire Of Monopoly.

Nothing like global War against Muslim states to anesthetize the masses and their central banks. All part of PLANNED CHAOS.

I often wonder ... What if America had done nothing after the WTC bombing?

A few of the limit orders I placed last night were hit today. Two sell limit orders were hit for SKF at $25.85, reducing my total position by 30%. Two sell limit orders were hit for TWM at $30.55, reducing my total position by 40%. I am not going to be reloading them after hours, since a continuing market crash on Monday will benefit my put options, and so I will gladly dispose of some more of my ultrashorts. On the other hand, a solution to the Dubai problem could be found over the weekend, and the market may have a nice rally on Monday, and *THAT'S* when I'll reload my ultrashorts.

I also picked up 100 shares of DGP at $30 -- will keep it as a souvenir. :)

I did mess up a little on my HNU.TO trade today, but it still went well. A buy limit order I placed on it last night at $9.8 got filled this morning $9.59, replace the shares I sold yesterday at $10.67, which I in turn picked up at $9.80 last week. When I woke up this morning I saw HNU.TO at $11.07, but I thought the market was closed and I went on to doing other things. But I have just realized that HNU.TO is still trading in Canada, so I just sold these shares at $10.63, which still gives me a nice gain relative to the $9.59 purchase price this morning. But I could have sold them at $11+...

I just went to Amazon and was only able to purchase 2 more copies of this book. My plan was to give as Christmas present to all 7 of my college age nephews and nieces.

Does anyone know where i can find a few more for $39.95 ?

Hi Kaimu,

I too wonder what may be different if we responded differently to the 9/11 attack...

I'm a daily reader attempting to learn quietly reading Bill's comments and sifting through comments. I think the decision to enter Pakistan was made long ago when our current President confirmed (Aug 2007 democratic debate in Chicago) he would unilaterally invade Pakistan, the only candidate to favor such a stance... the US will divide Pakistan just as they have done with Iraq

I believe there is evidence Pakistan and China are getting along very well... the US can't have that... the question is why do we invade smaller/weaker nations? Just something that is curious. We certainly don't want a direct showdown with China.

The war on terror has accomplished to consolidate power, circumvent the US Constitution, and remove transparency so govt can operate in bigger and darker shadows... the issue is who profits from war... bankers and the industrial war complex are two that quickly appear on my list.

I have lived a relatively short time, but in that time the US has either been preparing for war, at war, or ending a war... whether it be drugs, Iraq, Iran, terror...

I just checked the CMBX prices, and the little bounce we saw over the past couple of weeks has decisively ended without reaching the previous high. So SRS should zoom for the next week or two. The spread (relative to 5-year Treasuries) of the CDX.NA.IG series made another definite higher low in early November and zoomed up today. HYG made a decisive break below $86 -- the level it held for the past 2 weeks. So the debt/credit market, which supposedly leads the equity market down during the credit crunch (as it did in 2007) is signaling more downside ahead for equities. So which equities should one choose to short? Among the market sectors I am following, IWM is the only one for which the advance-decline line is now at the 4-month low:

http://www.masterdata.com/Reports/Combined/ADLine/...

So I just placed a buy stop limit order at 30/30.1 for the 300 shares of TWM I sold today at 30.55.

didn't execute

Isn't it interesting that the guy who spearheaded Bloomberg's lawsuit to force the Fed to answer FOIA requests ends up passing away at 52? And when I say interesting, I really mean suspicious.

When I first heard Bloomberg was suing the Fed I was astonished and wondered who had the guts to do this kind of thing. Now we know. Is Ron Paul or Alan Grayson next - "oh yes, he had heart trouble."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&si...

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Mark Pittman, the award-winning investigative reporter whose fight to open the Federal Reserve to more scrutiny led Bloomberg News to sue the central bank and win, died Nov. 25 in Yonkers, New York. He was 52.

Pittman suffered from heart-related illnesses. The precise cause of his death wasn’t known, said his friend William Karesh, vice president of the Global Health Program at the Bronx, New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society.

May God be with you NY and all those you ride with...these are truly some scary times; and I do not just mean in the markets. Lets hope, because we can, that our government does not use this also as a tactic embedded in a perverse strategy that upstages, well you know the rest.

Edit:
It is off to work for me...part-time job thank goodness. At times like these I stop to be grateful for more than a drumstick and wings...it is all relative!

Hi Fjd - Seems like we heard this a time or two before - give it a rest. Did you ever get around to saving the earth by buying nuclear, i.e. Hitachi, GE or Cameco along with shorting Northrop and General Dynamics? Happy Trading

Mocat,

"Just received my latest health insurance bill.... it only increased 31%. I have had zero claims in 10 years."

Just wait until you file a claim. After my one and only claim after two decades with my insurer my $10,000 (w/ added $2,500 copay) deductible major medical policy paid $1,500 on a $14,000 bill.

Then premiums went up over 450% in less than three years.

My letters to my state rep and the state insurance board brought nearly identical letters informing me I was ..."in a group which needed more medical care and was therefore more costly."

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=msummary&cmd=show,iday[Y]&disp=SXA

scroll to bottom to see that despite assertions on this board of bearishness, the general consensus is NOT bearish.

SRS FXP SCC SMN RSW SFK SDS SIJ REW QID BGZ TLL RHO DXK RXD DXD - Buy zone

PST GLL DZZ - Accumulation mode

Some of these are very illiquid.

FD:I own some of the above.

Do your own homework

I would look at ETF's from the same group/family. FXI is unleveraged and from the Ishares group while FXP is leveraged from the Proshares group.

I also do a chart comparison ala John Murphy, looking at the ETF vs risk free alternate (IEF) and against volitility ($vix or $vxn). If there is a mirror ETF, I also look at that against the ETF with RSI buy or accumulate mode.

GL

Thx for the link bsi,

but I wouldn't pay any attn to that. A consumer shopping report from mountainview ca (where the income and lifestyle is skewed) and content coming from Sergey Brin's (cofounder of google) mother in law holds zero weight.

try store sales of the majority of America like queens blvd ny, downtown Los Angeles, Dallas tx, Phoenix az, Pittsburgh, Philly, Brooklyn etc..

I wonder if Esther Wojcicki is worried about her small teacher's salary, or her retirement? Prob not.

Edit: what I am trying to say is I agree with you the recession is not over by a long shot, but am disagreeing that although the spin will ofcourse be sales were brisk, but in reality it is smoke and mirrors.

So the news outlets ate trying to sell us that people who no longer have credit, neg equity on mortgage, 1 round from being laid off, or already unemployed, are spending cash savings?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

An impassioned defense of the status quo.

For those that do not know, KRS One one of the legendary pioneers of hip hop.

I realize I said i would be taking a break to engulf myself in reading and learning and thinking this dec. but I still like to share.

Pt 1: http://bit.ly/8N0Gbl
Pt 2: http://bit.ly/6j36t3
Pt 3: http://bit.ly/6yD2YL

Disclaimer: I don't agree with everything he says. but I think you will be surprised by his eloquent thinking. I thoroughly enjoyed when he compared Obama to the manager at Burger King, when you should really be thinking who the heck is the franchise owner who really runs the show. He even breaks down the Fed Reserve being a private co. I was blown out of my seat!

KRS One wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KRS-One

EDIT: From Part 2. "If the the citizens stop aligning themselves with bad laws, the laws go away." I agree 100%. It makes me tear. to think we as a group of citizens have the power to make the fed go away. to make income tax go away. to stop our troops from fighting bogus wars. but we sit here idle, accepting the fate given to us. how odd where i found more fuel for my fire to free myself from this bogus system.

From Part 3: "Peace is a revolutionary strategy. Peace is endurance, endurance wins the war."

We are now at 17.6% unemployment here in northern Illinois.>>

I wonder

1)what the unemployment rate in N. IL. and elsewhere would be without the "stimulus" and

2) what the unemployment rate will be when the "stimulus" is removed...which it have to be eventually?

Talk among yourselves. LOL.

Wow! Powerful...inspired...true...powerful, did I already say that?

I also wrote this in response to a story about which anyone has permission to copy and forward to the appropriate gate keeper of choice:

You guys-gals (ie. leaders in government) do not get it! It is a shame that you are willfully taking and not giving; that is not how love works...you do know what that is? I don’t care about your bigger picture mentality; how about the details? Clinton, et al is a fool and many-many people know this; just because the people appear to be asleep...do not believe it! People like Ron Paul among many selfless crusaders are now organizing the tactics to embed within a robust strategy, which will help to further, because it is already occurring, unfreeze those very same people you attempt to control....actors acting is so much better when they know their parts and not their manufactured parts. The elucidation of our historical ontology is not based on education, fear, and easily manipulated or convenient factors, but is based in reality and truth. Do you surmise that it will not make a difference, I say no!, like Ron Paul did when people attempted to actively manipulate him. It is not about Ron Paul the man, but about what we discerning people now realize how to a-FECT; the kind of change I and we people can finally believe in...we tire of Circuses with all its freak shows and free bread.

(This below inspired me to write this above)I know our early colonist were required to drill, be proficient and stand ready, to defend that freedom, both from foreign and domestic enemies upon penalty for dereliction of duty. I agree strongly that women should be hitting the ground hard as well, and had I written this after viewing the videos, I would have included that aspect as well. I think when dealing with the Godless, how else can they gain advantage, we need to take baby steps perhaps; any suggestions?

One Thing Stops Multiple Murderers: A Gun

by Vin Suprynowicz

Recently by Vin Suprynowicz: Greeks Falling Out of Their Trojan Horse

Early in the morning of December 5, 1999, off-duty Las Vegas Metro police officer Dennis Devitte was one of the customers at Mr. D’s Sports Bar, at Rainbow Boulevard and Oakey Drive, where he and some pals had gone to hear the band Pigs in a Blanket.

A little after 1 a.m., three armed robbers charged through the back door with guns drawn and their faces covered with T-shirts or bandanas. “I’d only been in the bar a short time and was talking to friends,” Devitte later told an interviewer for the International Association of Chiefs of Police. Then, “I saw a ruckus at the end of the bar. …

“One of the gunmen went right by me and shot a man in a wheelchair, hitting him in the shoulder,” Officer Devitte recalled. “I only had my small .25-caliber off-duty gun, which isn’t very accurate, so I knew I had to get really close before I could start shooting. Otherwise I might hit someone else.”

The robbers might have taken a moment to consider the name of the band, which was also made up of off-duty officers. Mr. D’s was often referred to as a “cop bar,” though the IACP contends Officer Devitte was, curiously enough, the only patron armed at the time.

Officer Devitte dug the handgun out of his pocket and approached 19-year-old Emilio Rodriguez, who was firing into the crowd with a .40 caliber pistol. “I went straight at him as he turned and started firing at me,” Devitte said. “He kept firing and hitting me, but I held my fire until I got to less than 18 inches from him.”

The incident took 20 seconds and was recorded on the bar’s surveillance tape. Devitte shot Rodriguez eight times – twice through the heart – before the officer finally fell, the robber’s last round having blown out his knee.

Rodriguez stumbled out the front door and died. The other two robbers fled.

“Dennis was bleeding from everywhere,” recalled Mike Richards, a fellow officer who was playing in the band. “I yelled for towels. Then I tried to get Dennis’ gun from him. Even though one bullet had blown his right hand apart and another had hit his right thumb, he wouldn’t give it up. He told me there were still two more bad guys.”

“Please tell my wife I love her,” Devitte told Officer Curtis Wills, as he lay bleeding from his wounds. “I did the best I could. I hope I didn’t hit anybody else.”

The following year, Dennis Devitte – who recovered and returned to duty – received the highest honor in law enforcement, as the IACP named him America’s Police Officer of the Year.

There are two reasons no innocent parties died at Mr. D’s that night. One, beyond any question, was the selfless courage of Officer Dennis Devitte.

The second reason? One of Emilio Rodriguez’s intended victims had a gun.

On Nov. 6, 2009, America found reason to honor another brave civilian police officer, as Major Nidal Malik Hasan, a U.S. army psychiatrist about to be deployed to Afghanistan, reportedly shouted “Allahu Akbar” and opened fire at a soldier readiness facility in Fort Hood, Texas, killing 13 people and wounding 28.

Police Sergeant Kimberly Munley and her partner responded within three minutes of the report of gunfire. Despite being hit by the mass murderer’s rounds in her wrist and both thighs, Sgt. Munley stood her ground and shot the gunman four times in the torso, ending Major Hasan’s brief career as a jihadist – providing the current White House doesn’t intervene to commute his pending court-martial sentence to singing three rousing choruses of “Kumbaya.”

But Hasan had reportedly fired more than 100 rounds, requiring him to change handgun magazine several times. Why didn’t any of the hundreds of Army personnel in the room shoot back, ending his killing spree far sooner?

Because they couldn’t.

“Time after time, public murder sprees occur in ‘gun-free zones’ – public places where citizens are not legally able to carry guns,” the Washington Times editorialized this week. “The list is long, including massacres at Virginia Tech and Columbine High School along with many less deadly attacks. Last week’s slaughter at Fort Hood Army base in Texas was no different – except that one man bears responsibility for the ugly reality that the men and women charged with defending America were deliberately left defenseless when a terrorist opened fire.”

Among President Bill Clinton’s first acts upon taking office in 1993 “was to disarm U.S. soldiers on military bases,” the Times points out. In March 1993, the Army imposed regulations forbidding military personnel from carrying their personal firearms and making it almost impossible for commanders to issue firearms to soldiers in the U.S. for personal protection.

“Because of Mr. Clinton, terrorists would face more return fire if they attacked a Texas Wal-Mart than the gunman faced at Fort Hood, home of the heavily armed and feared 1st Cavalry,” the Times editorialized.

Maybe – providing the Wal-Mart didn’t specifically ban guns on its property, as many shopping malls do (though such bans are curiously – and unconstitutionally – selective; just ask the store manager if police officers responding to a call to arrest a shoplifter are required to leave their sidearms in their cars).

But mass murderers do generally have a harder time of it in Texas, nowadays, thanks to the legislative response to the second deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history, which also occurred in Killeen, Texas – home to Fort Hood.

In 1991, George Hennard drove his pickup truck through the window of a Luby’s cafeteria in Killeen, jumped out and began firing two pistols at the defenseless customers and employees inside, killing 23.

One customer, Suzanna Hupp, saw Hennard gun down her parents. Mrs. Hupp later testified that she had brought a handgun with her that day but, to her bitter regret, left it in her car, as required by state law, which at the time barred the carrying of a concealed handgun.

Suzanna Gratia Hupp ran for and was elected to the Texas state Legislature, where she was able to win approval of a “shall issue” law that requires authorities to issue a concealed carry permit to any resident who meets certain objective criteria.

Unless they join the Army.

In an interview on CNN the Monday night after the Fort Hood shooting, news anchor John Roberts asked Mandy Foster – wife of one of the soldiers shot and wounded at the base – how she felt about her husband’s upcoming deployment to Afghanistan. Ms. Foster responded: “At least he’s safe there and he can fire back, right?”

Mr. Clinton’s deadly rule disarms even officers. “Six of the dead and wounded had commissions,” the Times pointed out. And this despite the fact that “All the public shootings in the United States in which more than three people have been killed have occurred in places where concealed handguns have been banned.”

President Obama claims there will be a thorough investigation to figure out how the Fort Hood massacre came to occur, and how future repetitions can be prevented.

He’s probably lying, as usual. If he’s not, he could and should:

1) start by admitting there’s no “mystery” to Hasan’s motivation: This murderous assault was committed by a radical Muslim jihadist, who actually attended the same mosque as two of the Sept. 11 hijackers, speaking enthusiastically about the mosque’s radical cleric, Anwar al-Awlaki… and

2) repeal the Clinton self-defense ban, re-arming American military personnel on all U.S. military installations.

Right now.

November 28, 2009

Vin Suprynowicz [send him mail] is assistant editorial page editor of the daily Las Vegas Review-Journal and author of The Black Arrow. Visit his blog.

Copyright © 2009 Vin Suprynowicz

Edit:
I changed affect to a-FECT because I thought it more effective, really!

Hmm. First global warming, now gun control. I wonder what's next - abortion rights? A church-and-state issue? How about gay marriage, anyone? Anyone?

I'm going to put in my vote that we refrain from engaging in divisive, non-market-related discussion subjects. I think we have more than enough subject matter these days on market-related issues to keep our interest.

He points out that these "sales estimates" come from mall foot traffic estimates, not from actual sales.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/we-dont-know-...

"Every year, various groups — NPD, Retail Federation, Shopper Track, and others — release this weak ass data that is almost never correct. And each year, the press laps it up like manna from heaven."

ALOHA !!

Thanks Pierre ...

So once again the Arab legacy boils down to ancient tribal infighting. Even with the huge sophisticated and civilized facade of Dubai it's all still tribal. Beckham's mansion must have lost quite a bit of quid over all this.

And "democracy" is supposed to unite this tangled web of hate?

What a cruel hoax on the supposed "civilized West" to have the majority of oil reserves located in such fervent hatred. Ah God is indeed the merriest prankster.

Makes one want to get off the grid and off the freeways!

More fodder to sell ads on news channels? It's a catch 22 if you ask me. Banks who will be publicly "shamed" or labeled as those not helping consumers lower mortgage payments, will be ostracized by retail banking clients, while applauded by shareholders. And once those "shamed" banks commit to lowering mortgage payments, their share prices will take a nasty hit, since lower payments will affect their bottom line. Unless bailout iv and v are orchestrated to subsidize those lower payments.

There is only one way out, and the truth shall lead us to those prices.

http://bit.ly/5hd1ay

"Mr. Barr said the government would try to use shame as a corrective, publicly naming those institutions that move too slowly to permanently lower mortgage payments. The Treasury Department also will wait until reductions are permanent before paying cash incentives that it promised to mortgage companies that lower loan payments.

“They’re not getting a penny from the federal government until they move forward,” Mr. Barr said."

LOL, but with chagrin...

Back in the old days when good manufacturing jobs (not too big to fail) were sacrificed on the alter of the "Free Market" I thought this country was making a big mistake. Now I see it was the first signs of a total national dementia setting in.

I am a true believer in the free market elements of supply and demand.

We are globally oversupplied in almost everything. Perhaps the worst is the oversupply of workers in an age of increasing reliance on technological efficiencies. Even without the meddling by bankers and economists as we need fewer workers we are finding ways to save and extend lives. Not a formula for long term comfort.

People may just be beginning to realize that the Goldilocks economy which was so celebrated is based on a fairy tale.

We are watching the belief of one man (Bernanke) being played out as a mass experiment (with our money) which is destroying the country. Some of us are old enough to remember how this worked when Hilter did his national experiment. He announced it in advance (Mein Kampf). Bernanke also announced his plan in a whole series of speeches prior to assuming the Fed chairmanship.

Neither had ever, as far as I know, ever run a business or employed people — all is theoretical, but gospel to people like this. Supreme arrogance!

We can expect actual or de facto rationing of health care. Ever increasing taxes. A global leveling of income and life style. Unless...

Perhaps a nuclear war will bring a massive readjustment of population to resources. The Black Death did it. There is evidence that climate change has done it. It looks like we have alternatives, but the cure may be more than we can handle.

I agree to miss the moment to add to our financial freedom lacks understanding and also to shrink from our duty to the human race provides a delicate dilemma.

I have little time this morning so here goes:

I noticed that LQD, UNG, SKF, FAZ looked interesting. While I may be tempted to go long these; I do not have too, especially if I realize they are really a short conundrum in my mind.

While we all must eat, we don't have to stand by and watch others eat....even though it appears to be the most social thing. For example, I bet pizza hut is plenty busy these days, how could I know though since I apparently lack the motivating enzyme(s). Yummy, YUMy!...that is me when I was younger and was well to relish in the mustard so to speak.

Of late, this blog is great! Happy trails!

Loannetter, Vassal to King Frank,

"We also have a boatload of new timing and red flag rules that basically allow anything as absurd as an old address in college on your credit report to kick up a 'suspect address alert' requiring police records to search your background from 20 years ago."

The largest capital concentration in history (housing bubble) will now become the largest contraction in debt in history under the new authority imposed upon the deposed Lord Fred and Lady Fan. It is your NEW duty as King Frank's vassal to enforce this onerous authority within the fiefdom.

"Exepct more reviews and snide comments from that same underwriter on your home's appraised value even though your appraiser was selected in their own 'no see um' method so your broker or banker has absolutely no means to affect your valuation."

King Frank shall condemn your attempts to bias his trusted esquires. You may find yourself pilloried for excessive whinging and lack of loyality to his sovereign authority ...

Long Live King Frank!

I'm not interested in debating the result of this popular vote but wish to point out the anecdotal evidence of increasing conservatism in the heart of Europe. This decision will probably have an impact on business and at the European level, of which similar conservatism is increasingly present yet not permitted ready voice in most political systems, the implications for investing in Europe are obvious - if not to be felt overnight. Swiss voters appeared to have forgotten that the largest Muslim populations are to be found in relatively stable countries, populated by friendly people (as if Middle Eastern Arabs were otherwise?) in increasingly important regions of Sth East Asia.

Who was that well known investor who moved his family to Singapore? Looking like a smart move.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/front/Minaret_result_s...

Les,

I think it is Jimmy Rogers.

Kaimu, you got a PV system yet?

I did my own little writeup on Dubai.
I did a little write-up on Dubai World, following some of their links and "assets". Looks like mark to market could really be zero on some of their grandiose plans, unless they can convince others to throw good money after bad to bring projects to completion-- then mark to market might be 20%. Just my humble opinion....

Check it out, a quick click throughs can provide a bit of perspective and scope on this debacle.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/dubai-worl...

Dr. Strangelove, These matters affect homeownwers who are not finding the humor in their new circumstances. You and your your lords will not silence me.

Loannetter -

Nor should the 'homeowner' find humor in discovering fee title 'ownership' equates to an indentured three-decades or more of variable-interest debt slavery starting with zero equity 15+ years into the future. Indeed.

I do not wish to silence you anymore than you wish to bias an appraiser.

Cheers.

http://www.hindu.com/2009/11/30/stories/2009113050...

Mokat,

We are now operating on the philosophy of Joseph Stalin who said, "The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of a million men is a statistic."

It has become so unreal for so long that nothing gets the public's attention.

What if we all simply quit paying taxes?

I would rather give up my Social Security now than have it taken back through other means.

Iran has insisted that its nuclear program is designed for energy production and denies it is seeking to build a nuclear bomb. Ahmadinejad said Sunday that his country's need for energy would grow dramatically over the next 15 years.

"We annually must produce between 250 to 300 tons of nuclear fuel," he said.

If completed, the proposed expansion of Iran's nuclear program would give it vastly more nuclear fuel. According to a November report by the Vienna-based IAEA, Iran currently has 8,745 centrifuges to enrich uranium, but less than half of them are operational.

The United States and its allies, under an IAEA-backed plan, had recently sought to reduce Iran's nuclear stockpile by proposing that the Islamic republic ship most of its enriched uranium abroad to be fashioned into fuel for a research reactor. Iran has rejected a central element of the proposal.

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said Sunday that Iran's plans, if true...???
They can't believe it or do not know how to deal with it!
http://tinyurl.com/yzqmegr

People do qualify for mortgages. You just need the patience of Job and good credit, assets and income. Over 50% closings these days are FHA, not Freddie and Fannie (their agony is worse). Meanwhile, housing prices are 'correcting' as you say by a very visible hammer.

It is shameful that a perceived need for a 'balanced marketplace' is impoverishing individuals. Hardly sporting.

davefairtex, --I susupect the current level of Fed intervention in interest rates is probably skewing this picture. I would venture if housing prices continue to fall as rates rise come May Day, there is a point people stop buying. Psychological limits create their own barriers. I bought a house in the 80's during the 16% interest days and the seller took my first offer at nearly 40% less than his asking price. Not every seller can afford that kind of haircut.

HB&B will get their pound of interest with a larger loan and a lower interest rate or a lower loan and a higher interest rate. In fact, they get a bigger bang per buck risked with the latter. How convenient?

I am in the middle of re-reading this great work. Excerpt:

"He who is the real tyrant, whatever men may think, is the real slave, and is obliged to practise the greatest adulation and servility, and to be the flatterer of the vilest of mankind. He has desires which he is utterly unable to satisfy, and has more wants than any one, and is truly poor, if you know how to inspect the whole soul of him: all his life long he is beset with fear and is full of convulsions, and distractions, even as the State which he resembles: and surely the resemblance holds?

Very true, he said.

Moreover, as we were saying before, he grows worse from having power: he becomes and is of necessity more jealous, more faithless, more unjust, more friendless, more impious, than he was at first; he is the purveyor and cherisher of every sort of vice, and the consequence is that he is supremely miserable, and that he makes everybody else as miserable as himself."

Ha! I'll comment on this setup cause it was me that blandly pointed out that CAT was making new highs. There was a perfect setup, but without my thinking cap on, I let the the b/o occur without the foggiest idea that it was what I was looking for as a setup. Worse, having witnessed CAT's performance over two days I suggested jumping in as momentum was fading. Doubly worse, I had bought some CAT (fortunately only a paper trade) Wednesday afternoon convinced someone wants it to go higher. Of course Dubai had to happen on the Thursday and voilà, I get my butt kicked by a Black Swan event, which Vad pointed out was just an excuse for profit taking - fair enough and my bad.

I tie these comments into Bill's WIR commentary:

"Trading, we know, is about risk management. Unfortunately, because of the current structure of the capital markets and its regulatory systems, and the way HB&B is now attached to the hip with Washington, I do not think an independent trader can win without luck and/or taking on obscene levels of risk."

Vad's risk management works and has been very profitable to me since the beginning, although profit gained in the first two hour of trading continues to be eroded as a result of not internalising the trading system that Vad has obviously spent years developing and refining - I get bored or the tape slows down or becomes random yet I try to push that extra trade etc etc. To this end I rid myself of JL and the other twitter traders I follow, the chart pattern trader and any other miscellaneous strategy that I think might work. I will stick to my table the 7 important setups in TTR along with the checklist that greenlights a potential trade, in order to improve recognition of such profitable patterns like CAT's C&H, which mock me in my ignorance.

I have been merely following Vad's calls until now, which has been an enlightening exposé as my first month winds up - now I concentrate on understanding and recognising the setups that are spoon fed to me. I will also endeavor to practice the art of navel gazing prior to every opening, as I am convinced that this is a vital element of Vad's trading success, albeit he has yet to share this route to Nirvana with us as of yet :)

cheers and GL this week

edit: one author I am taking the time to read as I write is Jesse Livermore's "How to Trade Stocks". It is a pdf of a library book and well worth a read. Unfortunately it is too large to post on this site. Do not hesitate to email me if you would like a copy of it. Of course if someone remembers the URL - I think this was found in the WWW - please do not hesitate to post it again for the benefit of those who do not yet have his work. cheers.